Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project. Final report
- Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)
This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ``specialists``), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 10137507
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-TR-102000; ON: UN93010110
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: Feb 1993
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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