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Title: Uncertainty analysis of the Measured Performance Rating (MPR) method. Final report

Uncertainty analysis of the Measured Performance Rating (MPR) method. Final report A report was commissioned by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and the Electric Power Research Institute to evaluate the uncertainties in the energy monitoring method known as measured performance rating (MPR). The work is intended to help further development of the MPR system by quantitatively analyzing the uncertainties in estimates of the heat loss coefficients and heating system efficiencies. The analysis indicates that the MPR should detect as little as a 7 percent change in the heat loss coefficients and heating system efficiencies. The analysis indicate that the MPR should be able to detect as little as a 7 percent change in the heat loss coefficient at 95 percent confidence level. MPR appears sufficiently robust for characterizing common weatherization treatments; e.g., increasing attic insulation from R-7 to R-19 in a typical single-story, 1,100 sq. ft. house resulting in a 19 percent reduction in heat loss coefficient. Furnace efficiency uncertainties ranged up to three times those of the heat loss coefficients. Measurement uncertainties (at the 95 percent confidence level) were estimated to be from 1 to 5 percent for heat loss coefficients and 1.5 percent for a typical furnace efficiency. The analysis also shows a limitation in more » applying MPR to houses with heating ducts in slabs on grade and to those with very large thermal mass. Most of the uncertainties encountered in the study were due more to the methods of estimating the ``true`` heat loss coefficients, furnace efficiency, and furnace fuel consumption (by collecting fuel bills and simulating two actual houses) than to the MPR approach. These uncertainties in the true parameter values become evidence for arguments in favor of the need of empirical measures of heat loss coefficient and furnace efficiency, like the MPR method, rather than arguments against. « less
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:10133180
Report Number(s):NYSERDA--94-2
ON: TI94008165
Resource Type:Technical Report
Resource Relation:Other Information: PBD: Nov 1993
Research Org:NAHB Research Foundation, Inc., Upper Marlboro, MD (United States). National Research Center
Sponsoring Org:New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Albany, NY (United States)
Country of Publication:United States
Language:English
Subject: 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; MONITORING; PROGRESS REPORT; EVALUATION; DATA COVARIANCES; RESIDENTIAL SECTOR; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SURVEYS 320105; BUILDING SERVICES