Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty
Abstract
We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally,more »
- Authors:
-
- Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States). Rollins School of Public Health, Dept. of Environmental Health
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Science and Global Change Div. (ASGC)
- Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States). Dept. of Biostatistics and Computational Biology
- George Washington Univ., Washington, DC (United States). Milken Inst. School of Public Health, Dept. of Global Health and Department of Environmental and Occupational Health
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1188883
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-97819
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; KP1703010
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; AC05-00OR22725; U01 EH000405; 1R21ES020225; TG-ATM110009; UT-TENN0006
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climatic Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 128; Journal Issue: 1-2; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
- Publisher:
- Springer
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; climate change; ozone; mortality; uncertainty; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); spatial variation
Citation Formats
Kim, Young-Min, Zhou, Ying, Gao, Yang, Fu, Joshua S., Johnson, Brent A., Huang, Cheng, and Liu, Yang. Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty. United States: N. p., 2014.
Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1.
Kim, Young-Min, Zhou, Ying, Gao, Yang, Fu, Joshua S., Johnson, Brent A., Huang, Cheng, & Liu, Yang. Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1
Kim, Young-Min, Zhou, Ying, Gao, Yang, Fu, Joshua S., Johnson, Brent A., Huang, Cheng, and Liu, Yang. Sun .
"Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1188883.
@article{osti_1188883,
title = {Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty},
author = {Kim, Young-Min and Zhou, Ying and Gao, Yang and Fu, Joshua S. and Johnson, Brent A. and Huang, Cheng and Liu, Yang},
abstractNote = {We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 1-2,
volume = 128,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Sun Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 22 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Ozone and Short-term Mortality in 95 US Urban Communities, 1987-2000
journal, November 2004
- Bell, Michelle L.
- JAMA, Vol. 292, Issue 19
Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities
journal, January 2007
- Bell, Michelle L.; Goldberg, Richard; Hogrefe, Christian
- Climatic Change, Vol. 82, Issue 1-2
Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States
journal, July 2010
- Chang, Howard H.; Zhou, Jingwen; Fuentes, Montserrat
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 7, Issue 7
Estimating the National Public Health Burden Associated with Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone: U.S. Public Health Burden of PM2.5 and Ozone
journal, May 2011
- Fann, Neal; Lamson, Amy D.; Anenberg, Susan C.
- Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, Issue 1
The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
journal, January 2013
- Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J. B.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 18
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
journal, October 2011
- Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19
Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution
journal, April 2010
- Jackson, J. Elizabeth; Yost, Michael G.; Karr, Catherine
- Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 1-2
Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate
journal, November 2004
- Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E.; Hogrefe, Christian
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 112, Issue 15
Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways
journal, August 2011
- Lamarque, Jean-François; Kyle, G. Page; Meinshausen, Malte
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Ozone Exposure and Mortality: An Empiric Bayes Metaregression Analysis
journal, January 2005
- Levy, Jonathan I.; Chemerynski, Susan M.; Sarnat, Jeremy A.
- Epidemiology, Vol. 16, Issue 4
Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4
journal, June 2012
- Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.; Arblaster, Julie M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 11
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010
- Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.
- Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282
Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions
journal, November 2012
- Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 120, Issue 11
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011
- Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications
journal, March 2008
- Skamarock, William C.; Klemp, Joseph B.
- Journal of Computational Physics, Vol. 227, Issue 7
Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States
journal, January 2007
- Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Liao, Kuo-Jen
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue D14
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Air Pollution-Related Human Health Effects
journal, July 2009
- Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; DeLucia, Anthony J.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 43, Issue 13
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
journal, July 2011
- Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health
journal, September 2013
- West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 10
WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system with aerosol feedback: software development and preliminary results
journal, January 2012
- Wong, D. C.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Works referencing / citing this record:
The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone pollution: NATURAL VARIABILITY IN OZONE PROJECTIONS
journal, March 2017
- Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 6
Health Effects of Climate Change Through Temperature and Air Pollution
journal, June 2019
- Lou, Jianing; Wu, Yangyang; Liu, Penghui
- Current Pollution Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050
journal, November 2017
- Zhang, Yuqiang; Smith, Steven J.; Bowden, Jared H.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 11
Updated Global Estimates of Respiratory Mortality in Adults ≥30Years of Age Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure
journal, August 2017
- Malley, Christopher S.; Henze, Daven K.; Kuylenstierna, Johan C. I.
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 125, Issue 8
Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study
journal, July 2018
- Chen, Kai; Fiore, Arlene M.; Chen, Renjie
- PLOS Medicine, Vol. 15, Issue 7
Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050
text, January 2017
- Jason, West, J.; J., Smith, Steven; H., Bowden, Jared
- The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill University Libraries
Updated Global Estimates of Respiratory Mortality in Adults ≥30Years of Age Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure
journal, August 2017
- Malley, Christopher S.; Henze, Daven K.; Kuylenstierna, Johan C. I.
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 125, Issue 8
Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study
journal, July 2018
- Chen, Kai; Fiore, Arlene M.; Chen, Renjie
- PLOS Medicine, Vol. 15, Issue 7
Short-term effects of weather and air pollution on atopic dermatitis symptoms in children: A panel study in Korea
journal, April 2017
- Kim, Young-Min; Kim, Jihyun; Han, Youngshin
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 12, Issue 4