Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
Abstract
Abstract Marked by large interannual variability, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has profound socio‐economic impacts through its dominant influence on floods and droughts. Improving predictions of the interannual variations of EASM rainfall has important implications for over 20% of the world's population. While coupled modeling systems have demonstrated some prediction skill related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation with remote influence on EASM rainfall, the impact of soil moisture has heretofore not been systematically investigated. Using a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system to constrain the soil moisture and soil temperature in a coupled climate model with a global land data assimilation product, this study demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the interannual variations of EASM rainfall, capturing the notable shift to a “wetter‐South‐drier‐North” rainfall pattern in China in the early 1990s. Hindcast simulations initialized with the well‐balanced states from a coupled simulation with WCDA also show significant multi‐year rainfall prediction skill over East China and Tibetan Plateau. Improvements in predicting the EASM rainfall are attributed to the strong land‐atmosphere coupling in large areas over China, which allows improved predictions of soil moisture to influence precipitation through soil moisture‐precipitation feedback, and the effects of land anomalies on the EASM circulation.more »
- Authors:
-
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, Ministry of Education Field Observation and Research Station for Ecology of East Asian Migratory Birds and Their Habitats Beijing China
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China, College of Ocean Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing China
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1767333
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1767837; OSTI ID: 1786852
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-158849
Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277; e2020EF001762
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; 2017YFA0603703; 41875127; 91737307; 91747101; 2019QZKK0206; KP1703010
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Volume: 9 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; data assimilation; land‐atmosphere interactions; land memory; monsoon rainfall; predictability
Citation Formats
Shi, Pengfei, Lu, Hui, Leung, L. Ruby, He, Yujun, Wang, Bin, Yang, Kun, Yu, Le, Liu, Li, Huang, Wenyu, Xu, Shiming, Liu, Juanjuan, Huang, Xiaomeng, Li, Lijuan, and Lin, Yanluan. Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1029/2020EF001762.
Shi, Pengfei, Lu, Hui, Leung, L. Ruby, He, Yujun, Wang, Bin, Yang, Kun, Yu, Le, Liu, Li, Huang, Wenyu, Xu, Shiming, Liu, Juanjuan, Huang, Xiaomeng, Li, Lijuan, & Lin, Yanluan. Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001762
Shi, Pengfei, Lu, Hui, Leung, L. Ruby, He, Yujun, Wang, Bin, Yang, Kun, Yu, Le, Liu, Li, Huang, Wenyu, Xu, Shiming, Liu, Juanjuan, Huang, Xiaomeng, Li, Lijuan, and Lin, Yanluan. Wed .
"Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001762.
@article{osti_1767333,
title = {Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall},
author = {Shi, Pengfei and Lu, Hui and Leung, L. Ruby and He, Yujun and Wang, Bin and Yang, Kun and Yu, Le and Liu, Li and Huang, Wenyu and Xu, Shiming and Liu, Juanjuan and Huang, Xiaomeng and Li, Lijuan and Lin, Yanluan},
abstractNote = {Abstract Marked by large interannual variability, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has profound socio‐economic impacts through its dominant influence on floods and droughts. Improving predictions of the interannual variations of EASM rainfall has important implications for over 20% of the world's population. While coupled modeling systems have demonstrated some prediction skill related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation with remote influence on EASM rainfall, the impact of soil moisture has heretofore not been systematically investigated. Using a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system to constrain the soil moisture and soil temperature in a coupled climate model with a global land data assimilation product, this study demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the interannual variations of EASM rainfall, capturing the notable shift to a “wetter‐South‐drier‐North” rainfall pattern in China in the early 1990s. Hindcast simulations initialized with the well‐balanced states from a coupled simulation with WCDA also show significant multi‐year rainfall prediction skill over East China and Tibetan Plateau. Improvements in predicting the EASM rainfall are attributed to the strong land‐atmosphere coupling in large areas over China, which allows improved predictions of soil moisture to influence precipitation through soil moisture‐precipitation feedback, and the effects of land anomalies on the EASM circulation. This study highlights the significant contribution of land to the interannual predictability of EASM rainfall, with a great potential to advance skillful interannual predictions of benefit to the large populations influenced by the annual whiplash of the summer monsoon rain.},
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001762},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 03 00:00:00 EST 2021},
month = {Wed Feb 03 00:00:00 EST 2021}
}
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001762
Works referenced in this record:
Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy: A New Initialization Strategy
journal, August 2017
- He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Liu, Mimi
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 16
Circumglobal Response to Prescribed Soil Moisture over North America
journal, June 2019
- Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Tawfik, Ahmed B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 14
Assessing the relative influence of surface soil moisture and ENSO SST on precipitation predictability over the contiguous United States: IMPORTANCE OF SOIL MOISTURE MEMORY
journal, June 2015
- Yoon, Jin-Ho; Leung, L. Ruby
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 12
Land-atmosphere coupling and summer climate variability over East Asia
journal, January 2011
- Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun; Dong, Wenjie
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D5
Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China from the CMIP5 models: UNCERTAINTIES ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION
journal, August 2013
- Huang, Dan-Qing; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yao-Cun
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 16
An economical approach to four-dimensional variational data assimilation
journal, June 2010
- Wang, Bin; Liu, Juanjuan; Wang, Shudong
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 27, Issue 4
Taking Serial Correlation into Account in Tests of the Mean
journal, February 1995
- Zwiers, Francis W.; von Storch, Hans
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, Issue 2
GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part I: Overview
journal, August 2006
- Koster, Randal D.; Sud, Y. C.; Guo, Zhichang
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 7, Issue 4
Atmospheric Controls on Soil Moisture–Boundary Layer Interactions. Part I: Framework Development
journal, June 2003
- Findell, Kirsten L.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Understanding Hydrometeorology Using Global Models
journal, November 2004
- Betts, Alan K.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85, Issue 11
Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?
journal, May 2000
- Wang, Bin; Wu, Renguang; Fu, Xiouhua
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 9
The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill
journal, October 2011
- Koster, R. D.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Yamada, T. J.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Oceanic climatology in the coupled model FGOALS-g2: Improvements and biases
journal, April 2013
- Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Hailong
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 30, Issue 3
Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols
journal, December 2016
- Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1
ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC 1
journal, March 1969
- Bjerknes, J.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 97, Issue 3
Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to boreal summer climate predictability
journal, February 2008
- Conil, S.; Douville, H.; Tyteca, S.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 32, Issue 1
Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation
journal, April 1981
- Horel, John D.; Wallace, John M.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 109, Issue 4
Basin scale estimates of evapotranspiration using GRACE and other observations
journal, January 2004
- Rodell, M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, Issue 20
Soil Moisture Memory in Climate Models
journal, December 2001
- Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 2, Issue 6
Diagnosing the Strength of Land–Atmosphere Coupling at Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales in Asia
journal, February 2014
- Liu, Di; Wang, Guiling; Mei, Rui
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Issue 1
A Soil Moisture-Rainfall Feedback Mechanism: 1. Theory and observations
journal, April 1998
- Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 34, Issue 4
Evaluation of grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2)
journal, April 2013
- Li, Lijuan; Wang, Bin; Dong, Li
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 30, Issue 3
The baseline evaluation of LASG/IAP climate system ocean model (LICOM) version 2
journal, June 2012
- Liu, Hailong; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang
- Acta Meteorologica Sinica, Vol. 26, Issue 3
The terrestrial segment of soil moisture-climate coupling: SOIL MOISTURE-CLIMATE COUPLING
journal, August 2011
- Dirmeyer, Paul A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 16
Impact of Spring Soil Moisture on Surface Energy Balance and Summer Monsoon Circulation over East Asia and Precipitation in East China
journal, July 2011
- Zhang, Renhe; Zuo, Zhiyan
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 13
Rebound in Atmospheric Predictability and the Role of the Land Surface
journal, July 2012
- Guo, Zhichang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; DelSole, Timothy
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 13
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Summer Precipitation in the United States Based on Observational Data
journal, October 2011
- Mei, Rui; Wang, Guiling
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events
journal, May 2018
- Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 3-4
Contribution of soil moisture feedback to hydroclimatic variability
journal, January 2010
- Krakauer, N. Y.; Cook, B. I.; Puma, M. J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, Issue 3
Realistic Initialization of Land Surface States: Impacts on Subseasonal Forecast Skill
journal, December 2004
- Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.; Liu, Ping
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 5, Issue 6
Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe
journal, September 2006
- Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Lüthi, Daniel; Litschi, Michael
- Nature, Vol. 443, Issue 7108
The flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, Grid-point Version 2: FGOALS-g2
journal, April 2013
- Li, Lijuan; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 30, Issue 3
Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to summer climate variability over the contiguous United States
journal, January 2008
- Zhang, Jingyong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Leung, L. Ruby
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D22
ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5
journal, April 2013
- Bellenger, H.; Guilyardi, E.; Leloup, J.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 7-8
The Climatology and Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air–Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?
journal, December 2014
- Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 23
Oceanic and terrestrial sources of continental precipitation
journal, January 2012
- Gimeno, Luis; Stohl, Andreas; Trigo, Ricardo M.
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 50, Issue 4
Impact of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Summer Rainfall over East Asia: A Regional Climate Model Study
journal, December 2007
- Kim, Jung-Eun; Hong, Song-You
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 23
Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting
journal, February 2014
- Koster, Randal D.; Walker, Gregory K.; Mahanama, Sarith P. P.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Issue 1
A new DRP-4DVar-based coupled data assimilation system for decadal predictions using a fast online localization technique
journal, March 2020
- He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Huang, Wenyu
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 7-8
Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall
journal, January 2005
- Wang, Bin
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 15
Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields during Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America
journal, October 2016
- Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 20
Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents: ORIGIN AND FATE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
journal, September 2010
- van der Ent, Rudi J.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Schaefli, Bettina
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 46, Issue 9
CPL6: The New Extensible, High Performance Parallel Coupler for the Community Climate System Model
journal, August 2005
- Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert; Kauffman, Brian
- The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, Vol. 19, Issue 3
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
journal, March 1996
- Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 3
An ocean data assimilation system in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific Ocean
journal, September 2015
- Yan, Changxiang; Zhu, Jiang; Xie, Jiping
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 32, Issue 11
ENSO theory
journal, June 1998
- Neelin, J. David; Battisti, David S.; Hirst, Anthony C.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C7
The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate
journal, October 1992
- Chahine, Moustafa T.
- Nature, Vol. 359, Issue 6394
The Global Land Data Assimilation System
journal, March 2004
- Rodell, M.; Houser, P. R.; Jambor, U.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85, Issue 3
The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
journal, December 2003
- Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 4, Issue 6