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Title: Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 enrichment experiment

Abstract

Abstract Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models ( TBM s), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single‐factor experiments. We applied 10 TBM s to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment ( PHACE ) experiment in Wyoming, USA . Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above‐ground net primary productivity (range: 31–390 g C m −2  yr −1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single‐factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 ‐induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactivemore » ( CO 2  × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single‐factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [4];  [5];  [9];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [2];  [15]; ORCiD logo [16] more »;  [2];  [17];  [18];  [3] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Macquarie Univ., North Ryde, NSW (Australia)
  2. Western Sydney Univ., Penrith, NSW (Australia)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  4. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  5. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  6. Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  7. Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  8. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt (Germany); Goethe-Univ., Frankfurt (Germany)
  9. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  10. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
  11. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, VIC (Australia)
  12. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)
  13. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt (Germany)
  14. East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China)
  15. United States Dept. of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  16. Lancaster Univ., Lancaster (United Kingdom)
  17. The Univ. of Sydney, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  18. Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1349613
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1373820
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; SC0016323; NNX14AD94G; 647204; AGS 12-43071; DE‐SC0016323
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 23; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; carbon dioxide; FACE; grassland; PHACE; temperature; models

Citation Formats

De Kauwe, Martin G., Medlyn, Belinda E., Walker, Anthony P., Zaehle, Sönke, Asao, Shinichi, Guenet, Bertrand, Harper, Anna B., Hickler, Thomas, Jain, Atul K., Luo, Yiqi, Lu, Xingjie, Luus, Kristina, Parton, William J., Shu, Shijie, Wang, Ying-Ping, Werner, Christian, Xia, Jianyang, Pendall, Elise, Morgan, Jack A., Ryan, Edmund M., Carrillo, Yolima, Dijkstra, Feike A., Zelikova, Tamara J., and Norby, Richard J. Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 enrichment experiment. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.13643.
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De Kauwe, Martin G., Medlyn, Belinda E., Walker, Anthony P., Zaehle, Sönke, Asao, Shinichi, Guenet, Bertrand, Harper, Anna B., Hickler, Thomas, Jain, Atul K., Luo, Yiqi, Lu, Xingjie, Luus, Kristina, Parton, William J., Shu, Shijie, Wang, Ying-Ping, Werner, Christian, Xia, Jianyang, Pendall, Elise, Morgan, Jack A., Ryan, Edmund M., Carrillo, Yolima, Dijkstra, Feike A., Zelikova, Tamara J., & Norby, Richard J. Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 enrichment experiment. United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13643
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De Kauwe, Martin G., Medlyn, Belinda E., Walker, Anthony P., Zaehle, Sönke, Asao, Shinichi, Guenet, Bertrand, Harper, Anna B., Hickler, Thomas, Jain, Atul K., Luo, Yiqi, Lu, Xingjie, Luus, Kristina, Parton, William J., Shu, Shijie, Wang, Ying-Ping, Werner, Christian, Xia, Jianyang, Pendall, Elise, Morgan, Jack A., Ryan, Edmund M., Carrillo, Yolima, Dijkstra, Feike A., Zelikova, Tamara J., and Norby, Richard J. Wed . "Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 enrichment experiment". United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13643. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1349613.
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@article{osti_1349613,
title = {Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 enrichment experiment},
author = {De Kauwe, Martin G. and Medlyn, Belinda E. and Walker, Anthony P. and Zaehle, Sönke and Asao, Shinichi and Guenet, Bertrand and Harper, Anna B. and Hickler, Thomas and Jain, Atul K. and Luo, Yiqi and Lu, Xingjie and Luus, Kristina and Parton, William J. and Shu, Shijie and Wang, Ying-Ping and Werner, Christian and Xia, Jianyang and Pendall, Elise and Morgan, Jack A. and Ryan, Edmund M. and Carrillo, Yolima and Dijkstra, Feike A. and Zelikova, Tamara J. and Norby, Richard J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models ( TBM s), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single‐factor experiments. We applied 10 TBM s to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment ( PHACE ) experiment in Wyoming, USA . Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above‐ground net primary productivity (range: 31–390 g C m −2  yr −1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single‐factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 ‐induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive ( CO 2  × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single‐factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13643},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 9,
volume = 23,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13643
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change
    journal, January 2019

    Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review
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    Plant profit maximization improves predictions of European forest responses to drought
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    Leaf area index identified as a major source of variability in modeled CO2 fertilization
    journal, January 2018

    Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review
    text, January 2018

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