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This content will become publicly available on August 11, 2017

Title: Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof-of-concept simulations

The need to understand potential climate impacts and feedbacks in Arctic regions has prompted recent interest in modeling of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. A new fine-scale integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology modeling capability is described and demonstrated in proof-of-concept simulations. The new modeling capability combines a surface energy balance model with recently developed three-dimensional subsurface thermal hydrology models and new models for nonisothermal surface water flows and snow distribution in the microtopography. Surface water flows are modeled using the diffusion wave equation extended to include energy transport and phase change of ponded water. Variation of snow depth in the microtopography, physically the result of wind scour, is also modeled heuristically with a diffusion wave equation. The multiple surface and subsurface processes are implemented by leveraging highly parallel community software. Fully integrated thermal hydrology simulations on the tilted open book catchment, an important test case for integrated surface/subsurface flow modeling, are presented. Fine-scale 100-year projections of the integrated permafrost thermal hydrological system on an ice wedge polygon at Barrow Alaska in a warming climate are also presented. Finally, these simulations demonstrate the feasibility of microtopography-resolving, process-rich simulations as a tool to help understand possible future evolution of the carbon-rich Arcticmore » tundra in a warming climate.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [5]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group, Earth and Environmental Sciences Division
  3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computational Physics and Methods Group, Computer, Computational and Statistical Sciences Division
  4. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Applied Mathematics and Plasma Physics Group, Theoretical Division
  5. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Earth Systems Observations Group, Earth and Environmental Sciences Division
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1324057
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; LDRD201200068DR
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water Resources Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Water Resources Research; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES permafrost; active layer; hydrology; simulations