Novel use of flu surveillance data: Evaluating potential of sentinel populations for early detection of influenza outbreaks
Abstract
Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality each year, with 2–8% of weekly outpatient visits around the United States for influenza-like-illness (ILI) during the peak of the season. Effective use of existing flu surveillance data allows officials to understand and predict current flu outbreaks and can contribute to reductions in influenza morbidity and mortality. Previous work used the 2009–2010 influenza season to investigate the possibility of using existing military and civilian surveillance systems to improve early detection of flu outbreaks. Results suggested that civilian surveillance could help predict outbreak trajectory in local military installations. To further test that hypothesis, we compare pairs of civilian and military outbreaks in seven locations between 2000 and 2013. We find no predictive relationship between outbreak peaks or time series of paired outbreaks. This larger study does not find evidence to support the hypothesis that civilian data can be used as sentinel surveillance for military installations. We additionally investigate the effect of modifying the ILI case definition between the standard Department of Defense definition, a more specific definition proposed in literature, and confirmed Influenza A. We find that case definition heavily impacts results. In conclusion, this study thus highlights the importance of careful selection of casemore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1321779
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-16-22898
Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- PLoS ONE
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
- Publisher:
- Public Library of Science
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; Biological Science
Citation Formats
Daughton, Ashlynn R., Velappan, Nileena, Abeyta, Esteban, Priedhorsky, Reid, Deshpande, Alina, and Turner, Stephen J. Novel use of flu surveillance data: Evaluating potential of sentinel populations for early detection of influenza outbreaks. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158330.
Daughton, Ashlynn R., Velappan, Nileena, Abeyta, Esteban, Priedhorsky, Reid, Deshpande, Alina, & Turner, Stephen J. Novel use of flu surveillance data: Evaluating potential of sentinel populations for early detection of influenza outbreaks. United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158330
Daughton, Ashlynn R., Velappan, Nileena, Abeyta, Esteban, Priedhorsky, Reid, Deshpande, Alina, and Turner, Stephen J. Fri .
"Novel use of flu surveillance data: Evaluating potential of sentinel populations for early detection of influenza outbreaks". United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158330. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1321779.
@article{osti_1321779,
title = {Novel use of flu surveillance data: Evaluating potential of sentinel populations for early detection of influenza outbreaks},
author = {Daughton, Ashlynn R. and Velappan, Nileena and Abeyta, Esteban and Priedhorsky, Reid and Deshpande, Alina and Turner, Stephen J.},
abstractNote = {Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality each year, with 2–8% of weekly outpatient visits around the United States for influenza-like-illness (ILI) during the peak of the season. Effective use of existing flu surveillance data allows officials to understand and predict current flu outbreaks and can contribute to reductions in influenza morbidity and mortality. Previous work used the 2009–2010 influenza season to investigate the possibility of using existing military and civilian surveillance systems to improve early detection of flu outbreaks. Results suggested that civilian surveillance could help predict outbreak trajectory in local military installations. To further test that hypothesis, we compare pairs of civilian and military outbreaks in seven locations between 2000 and 2013. We find no predictive relationship between outbreak peaks or time series of paired outbreaks. This larger study does not find evidence to support the hypothesis that civilian data can be used as sentinel surveillance for military installations. We additionally investigate the effect of modifying the ILI case definition between the standard Department of Defense definition, a more specific definition proposed in literature, and confirmed Influenza A. We find that case definition heavily impacts results. In conclusion, this study thus highlights the importance of careful selection of case definition, and appropriate consideration of case definition in the interpretation of results.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0158330},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
number = 7,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jul 08 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri Jul 08 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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Pacific-wide simplified syndromic surveillance for early warning of outbreaks
journal, August 2012
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- Global Public Health, Vol. 7, Issue 7
Molecular identification of adenoviruses associated with respiratory infection in Egypt from 2003 to 2010
journal, January 2014
- Demian, Pola N.; Horton, Katherine C.; Kajon, Adriana
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 14, Issue 1
Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak
journal, January 2011
- Omori, Ryosuke; Nishiura, Hiroshi
- Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Multiple Estimates of Transmissibility for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic Based on Influenza-like-Illness Data from Small US Military Populations
journal, May 2013
- Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Armenta, Richard
- PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 9, Issue 5
Age- and Influenza Activity-Stratified Case Definitions of Influenza-Like Illness: Experience from Hospital-Based Influenza Surveillance in South Korea
journal, January 2014
- Yang, Tae Un; Cheong, Hee Jin; Song, Joon Young
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Ebola Virus Disease — Sierra Leone and Guinea, August 2015
journal, September 2015
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- MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 64, Issue 35
Detection and Serotyping of Human Adenoviruses from Patients with Influenza-Like Illness in Mongolia
journal, January 2012
- Tohma, Kentaro; Bayasgalan, Namuuntsetsegiin; Suzuki, Akira
- Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 65, Issue 4
Works referencing / citing this record:
An Integrated Influenza Surveillance Framework Based on National Influenza-Like Illness Incidence and Multiple Hospital Electronic Medical Records for Early Prediction of Influenza Epidemics: Design and Evaluation
journal, January 2019
- Yang, Cheng-Yi; Chen, Ray-Jade; Chou, Wan-Lin
- Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol. 21, Issue 2
An Integrated Influenza Surveillance Framework Based on National Influenza-Like Illness Incidence and Multiple Hospital Electronic Medical Records for Early Prediction of Influenza Epidemics: Design and Evaluation
journal, January 2019
- Yang, Cheng-Yi; Chen, Ray-Jade; Chou, Wan-Lin
- Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol. 21, Issue 2