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Title: An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [2] ;  [5] ;  [6]
  1. Space Science Institute, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Space Plasma Physics; New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). ISR-1
  3. Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ (United States)
  4. Space Science Institute, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Space Plasma Physics; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Climate and Space Engineering
  5. Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy
  6. SES Engineering, Betzdorf (Luxembourg)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1304819
Report Number(s):
LA-UR--16-23407
Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Space Weather
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 14; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
LDRD; USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES heliospheric and magnetospheric physics