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Title: U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In conclusion, reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2]
  1. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Knoxville, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1287021
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Policy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 85; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS petroleum dependence; OPEC cartel; world oil market; oil price shocks; oil price elasticity; energy security