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Title: Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surfacemore » dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [9] ;  [10] ;  [11] ;  [12] ;  [13] ;  [14] ;  [15] ;  [8]
  1. Univ. of Chile, Santiago (Chile); Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS/UPMC, Paris (France)
  2. Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC-CNS, Barcelona (Spain)
  3. Univ. of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe (Germany)
  4. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  6. Meteorological State Agency of Spain (AEMET), Barcelona (Spain)
  7. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  8. National Hydrometeorological Service, Belgrade (Serbia)
  9. National Hydrometeorological Service, Belgrade (Serbia); Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Barcelona (Spain)
  10. National Hydrometeorological Service, Belgrade (Serbia); Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)
  11. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
  12. Izana Atmospheric Research Center, State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Spain)
  13. Technical Univ. of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain); Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC-CNS, Barcelona (Spain)
  14. Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Barcelona (Spain); Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Zaragoza (Spain)
  15. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom); Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS/UPMC, Paris (France)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1266058
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0006713
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 16; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Research Org:
Univ. of Chile, Santiago (Chile)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES convective adjustment scheme; saharan dust; mineral dust; mediterranean basin; aerosol characterization; radiative impact; middle-east; desert dust; system; cycle