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Title: Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

Abstract

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in property damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
  2. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1265732
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 132; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Liu, Jing, Hertel, Thomas, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Ashfaq, Moetasim, and Delgado, Michael. Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z.
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Liu, Jing, Hertel, Thomas, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Ashfaq, Moetasim, & Delgado, Michael. Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z
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Liu, Jing, Hertel, Thomas, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Ashfaq, Moetasim, and Delgado, Michael. Sun . "Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1265732.
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@article{osti_1265732,
title = {Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change},
author = {Liu, Jing and Hertel, Thomas and Diffenbaugh, Noah and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Delgado, Michael},
abstractNote = {Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in property damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 4,
volume = 132,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Aug 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Sun Aug 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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Journal Article:
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Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z
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Works referenced in this record:

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation
    journal, June 2019

    Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
    journal, July 2017

    Structural flood damage and the efficacy of property-level flood protection
    journal, November 2018

    • Chung, Hau Ching Phyllis; Adeyeye, Kemi
    • International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, Vol. 36, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1108/ijbpa-09-2017-0040

    Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective
    journal, January 2020

    • Liu, Wenhui; Wu, Jidong; Tang, Rumei
    • Sustainability, Vol. 12, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.3390/su12010407

    A comparison of building value models for flood risk analysis
    journal, January 2018

    • Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas P.; Keiler, Margreth
    • Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.5194/nhess-18-2431-2018

    A comparison of building value models for flood risk analysis
    text, January 2018

    • Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas P.; Keiler, Margreth
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.120561
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