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Title: Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in property damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [1]
  1. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
  2. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1265732
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 132; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES