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Title: Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

Abstract

Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr₋1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, themore » absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere, although there are certain environmental costs associated with this service, such as the acidification of ocean waters.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6];  [1];  [1];  [7];  [7];  [8];  [9]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  3. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  4. Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  5. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory of NOAA, Miami, FL (United States)
  6. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Environmental Institute
  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
  8. Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA (United States)
  9. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1265488
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Biogeosciences (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Ballantyne, A. P., Andres, R., Houghton, R., Stocker, B. D., Wanninkhof, R., Anderegg, W., Cooper, L. A., DeGrandpre, M., Tans, P. P., Miller, J. B., Alden, C., and White, J. W. C. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015.
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Ballantyne, A. P., Andres, R., Houghton, R., Stocker, B. D., Wanninkhof, R., Anderegg, W., Cooper, L. A., DeGrandpre, M., Tans, P. P., Miller, J. B., Alden, C., & White, J. W. C. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015
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Ballantyne, A. P., Andres, R., Houghton, R., Stocker, B. D., Wanninkhof, R., Anderegg, W., Cooper, L. A., DeGrandpre, M., Tans, P. P., Miller, J. B., Alden, C., and White, J. W. C. Thu . "Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1265488.
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@article{osti_1265488,
title = {Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty},
author = {Ballantyne, A. P. and Andres, R. and Houghton, R. and Stocker, B. D. and Wanninkhof, R. and Anderegg, W. and Cooper, L. A. and DeGrandpre, M. and Tans, P. P. and Miller, J. B. and Alden, C. and White, J. W. C.},
abstractNote = {Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr₋1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere, although there are certain environmental costs associated with this service, such as the acidification of ocean waters.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015},
journal = {Biogeosciences (Online)},
number = 8,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Thu Apr 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1. Figure 1.: Diagram of the global carbon budget in the year 2010. Major fluxes of C to the atmospheric reservoir of CO2 are from fossil fuel emissions (FF) and land use land conversion (FL) and are illustrated as red vectors. Net land (NL) uptake of C from the reservoir ofmore » atmospheric CO2 is illustrated by green vectors and net ocean uptake (NO) is illustrated by blue vectors. The size of the vectors is proportional to the mass flux of C as indicated in petagrams of C per year, where 1 Pg= 1015 g (illustration modified from Wikimedia Commons). Error estimates for each flux in 2010 are expressed as ±2σ.« less
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    Global Carbon Budget 2017
    journal, January 2018

    • Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-405-2018

    Global Carbon Budget 2019
    journal, January 2019

    • Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; O'Sullivan, Michael
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 11, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019

    Global Carbon Budget 2015
    journal, January 2015

    • Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-7-349-2015

    Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition
    journal, December 2019

    Global carbon budget 2019
    text, January 2019

    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    journal, January 2016

    • Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-8-605-2016

    Global Carbon Budget 2017
    text, January 2018

    Global carbon budget 2015
    text, January 2015

    Global Carbon Budget 2018
    text, January 2018

    • Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.141541

    Global Carbon Budget 2015
    text, January 2015

    Atmospheric radiocarbon measurements to quantify CO2 emissions in the UK from 2014 to 2015
    journal, November 2018

    • Wenger, Angelina; Pugsley, Katherine; O'Doherty, Simon
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-2018-1042

    Global carbon budget 2019
    text, January 2019

    Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
    text, January 2016

    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    text, January 2016

    A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions
    text, January 2018

    Global Carbon Budget 2019
    text, January 2019

    • Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; Michael, O&Apos;Sullivan,
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.141543

    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    text, January 2016

    • Jain, Atul K.; Doney, Scott C.; Schwinger, Jörg
    • Copernicus Publications
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.99520
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