DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

Abstract

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs asmore » a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1265481
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1250374
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 33; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS; climate change; socioeconomic scenarios; impacts; adaptation; vulnerability

Citation Formats

Absar, Syeda Mariya, and Preston, Benjamin L. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004.
Absar, Syeda Mariya, & Preston, Benjamin L. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004
Absar, Syeda Mariya, and Preston, Benjamin L. Mon . "Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1265481.
@article{osti_1265481,
title = {Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies},
author = {Absar, Syeda Mariya and Preston, Benjamin L.},
abstractNote = {The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
number = C,
volume = 33,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon May 25 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon May 25 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

Journal Article:

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 70 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?
journal, November 2008


A review of scenario planning
journal, February 2013


National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments
journal, November 2010

  • Bierwagen, B. G.; Theobald, D. M.; Pyke, C. R.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 49
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1002096107

Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios
journal, January 2007

  • Biggs, Reinette; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol
  • Ecology and Society, Vol. 12, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5751/ES-02051-120117

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change
journal, January 2013

  • Brand, Fridolin Simon; Seidl, Roman; Le, Quang Bao
  • Ecology and Society, Vol. 18, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5751/ES-04972-180243

Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change
journal, October 2012

  • Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik; Wikman-Svahn, Per
  • Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 18, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x

Linking global and local scales: designing dynamic assessment and management processes
journal, July 2000


Improving the usability of integrated assessment for adaptation practice: Insights from the U.S. Southeast energy sector
journal, October 2014


Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
journal, December 2013

  • Ebi, Kristie
  • International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 11, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110100030

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions
journal, September 2013


Adaptation in first- and second-best worlds
journal, September 2013


The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways
journal, January 2015


The next 25 years?: future scenarios and future directions for education and technology: The next 25 years?
journal, January 2010


Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe
journal, October 2012

  • Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.; Cojocaru, George
  • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 13, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10113-012-0361-y

A Regional, Multi-Sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-Economic Change In The Uk: Part I. Methodology
journal, July 2005


Climate impact research: beyond patchwork
journal, January 2014

  • Huber, V.; Schellnhuber, H. J.; Arnell, N. W.
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-5-399-2014

Thinking Big: A Conservation Vision for the Southeastern Coastal Plain of North America
journal, July 2009


Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe
journal, January 2007

  • Kok, Kasper; Biggs, Reinette (Oonsie); Zurek, Monika
  • Ecology and Society, Vol. 12, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5751/ES-01971-120108

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development
journal, April 2006


Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development
journal, April 2006


The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways
journal, October 2012


Escalating Water Demand for Energy Production and the Potential for Use of Treated Municipal Wastewater
journal, May 2011

  • Li, Heng; Chien, Shih-Hsiang; Hsieh, Ming-Kai
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 45, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1021/es1040305

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010

  • Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.
  • Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature08823

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
journal, October 2013


Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment
journal, August 2013


Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks
journal, March 2011

  • Preston, Benjamin L.; Yuen, Emma J.; Westaway, Richard M.
  • Sustainability Science, Vol. 6, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11625-011-0129-1

Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
journal, January 2015


Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
journal, December 2013

  • Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110

Visions for a sustainable Europe
journal, November 2000


Evaluation of the Sustainability of Water Withdrawals in the United States, 1995 to 20251
journal, October 2005


Projecting Water Withdrawal and Supply for Future Decades in the U.S. under Climate Change Scenarios
journal, February 2012

  • Roy, Sujoy B.; Chen, Limin; Girvetz, Evan H.
  • Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 46, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1021/es2030774

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales
journal, October 2012


The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation
journal, January 2014


Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
journal, September 2013


A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
journal, October 2013

  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C.
  • Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1

Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels
journal, February 2007


A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
journal, February 2012


Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades
journal, May 2010


Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change
journal, September 2014


Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments
journal, October 2007


Works referencing / citing this record:

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps
journal, January 2020

  • Dullinger, Iwona; Gattringer, Andreas; Wessely, Johannes
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14977

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature
journal, December 2019

  • Windfeld, Emma J.; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea
  • Environmental Reviews, Vol. 27, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1139/er-2018-0102

New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways
journal, August 2018

  • Kok, Kasper; Pedde, Simona; Gramberger, Marc
  • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0

Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves
journal, June 2018

  • Krkoška Lorencová, Eliška; Whitham, Charlotte; Bašta, Petr
  • Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.3390/su10061906

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems
journal, January 2019

  • Zandersen, Marianne; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Meier, H. E. Markus
  • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

Priority caves for biodiversity conservation in a key karst area of Brazil: comparing the applicability of cave conservation indices
journal, May 2018

  • Rabelo, Lucas Mendes; Souza-Silva, Marconi; Ferreira, Rodrigo Lopes
  • Biodiversity and Conservation, Vol. 27, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10531-018-1554-6

Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways
journal, November 2018


Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios
journal, August 2018

  • Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.; Frame, Bob; Preston, Benjamin L.
  • Climatic Change, Vol. 150, Issue 3-4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2270-7

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, March 2018

  • Rohat, Guillaume
  • International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15030554

Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe
journal, July 2017

  • Terama, Emma; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.
  • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5

Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe
text, January 2017


Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe
journal, July 2017

  • Terama, Emma; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.
  • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5

Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios
journal, February 2016


The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
journal, January 2017


Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs
journal, November 2020