Title: Detecting regional patterns of changing CO ₂ flux in Alaska

Abstract

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO₂ to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO₂ with climatically forced CO₂ flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO₂ observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO₂ sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. In conclusion, although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles acrossmore » continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.« less

Authors:

Parazoo, Nicholas C. ^[1]; Commane, Roisin  ^[2];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Commane, Roisin"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1373-1550"

Wofsy, Steven C. ^[2]; Koven, Charles D. ^[3]; Sweeney, Colm ^[4]; Lawrence, David M. ^[5]; Lindaas, Jakob ^[6]; Chang, Rachel Y. -W. ^[7]; Miller, Charles E. ^[8]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109,, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095,
2. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138,, Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138,
3. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720,
4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305,, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309,
5. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80302,
6. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138,, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523,
7. Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 4R2
8. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109,

Publication Date:

Mon Jun 27 00:00:00 EDT 2016

Research Org.:

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

OSTI Identifier:

1259729

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1379513

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC02-05CH11231; FC03-97ER62402; PLR-1304220

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Volume: 113 Journal Issue: 28; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; carbon cycle; permafrost thaw; climate; Earth system models; remote sensing