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Title: Improved Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization for regional infrasound

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) methodology is examined and simplified providing a generalized method of estimating the source location and time for an infrasonic event and the mathematical framework is used therein. The likelihood function describing an infrasonic detection used in BISL has been redefined to include the von Mises distribution developed in directional statistics and propagation-based, physically derived celerity-range and azimuth deviation models. Frameworks for constructing propagation-based celerity-range and azimuth deviation statistics are presented to demonstrate how stochastic propagation modelling methods can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of the posterior probability density function describing the source localization. Infrasonic signals recorded at a number of arrays in the western United States produced by rocket motor detonations at the Utah Test and Training Range are used to demonstrate the application of the new mathematical framework and to quantify the improvement obtained by using the stochastic propagation modelling methods. Moreover, using propagation-based priors, the spatial and temporal confidence bounds of the source decreased by more than 40 per cent in all cases and by as much as 80 per cent in one case. Further, the accuracy of the estimates remained high, keeping the ground truth within the 99more » per cent confidence bounds for all cases.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1257997
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-15-24405
Journal ID: ISSN 0956-540X
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Journal International
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 203; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0956-540X
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES wave propagation; probability distributions; acoustic-gravity waves; seismic monitoring and test-ban treaty verification