Title: From documentation to prediction: Raising the bar for thermokarst research

Abstract

Here we report that to date the majority of published research on thermokarst has been directed at documenting its form, occurrence, and rates of occurrence. The fundamental processes driving thermokarst have long been largely understood. However, the detailed physical couplings between, water, air, soil, and the thermal dynamics governing freeze-thaw and soil mechanics is less understood and not captured in models aimed at predicting the response of frozen soils to warming and thaw. As computational resources increase more sophisticated mechanistic models can be applied; these show great promise as predictive tools. These models will be capable of simulating the response of soil deformation to thawing/freezing cycles and the long-term, non-recoverable response of the land surface to the loss of ice. At the same time, advances in remote sensing of permafrost environments also show promise in providing detailed and spatially extensive estimates in the rates and patterns of subsidence. These datasets provide key constraints to calibrate and evaluate the predictive power of mechanistic models. In conclusion, in the coming decade, these emerging technologies will greatly increase our ability to predict when, where, and how thermokarst will occur in a changing climate.

Authors:

Rowland, Joel C. ^[1]; Coon, Ethan T. ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Publication Date:

Thu Nov 12 00:00:00 EST 2015

Research Org.:

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI Identifier:

1255071

Report Number(s):

LA-UR-15-25552
Journal ID: ISSN 1431-2174; PII: 1331

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC52-06NA25396; ERKP757

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Hydrogeology Journal

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1431-2174

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; subsidence; thermokarst; permafrost; geohazards