Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

doi:10.1002/qre.1996

Title: Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

Full Record
Other Related Research

Abstract

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.

Authors:

King, Caleb ^[1]; Hong, Yili ^[2]; Meeker, William Q. ^[3]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016

Research Org.:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1249093

Report Number(s):: SAND-2016-1863J
Journal ID: ISSN 0748-8017; 619640

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Quality and Reliability Engineering International

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 119; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 0748-8017

Publisher:: Wiley

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 42 ENGINEERING

Citation Formats


                    King, Caleb, Hong, Yili, and Meeker, William Q. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction.  United States: N. p., 2016. 
Web.  doi:10.1002/qre.1996.

Copy to clipboard


                    King, Caleb, Hong, Yili, & Meeker, William Q. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.1996

Copy to clipboard


                    King, Caleb, Hong, Yili, and Meeker, William Q. Wed .  
"Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.1996.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1249093.

Copy to clipboard


                    
@article{osti_1249093,

  title        = {Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction},

  author       = {King, Caleb and Hong, Yili and Meeker, William Q.},

  abstractNote = {Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.},

  doi          = {10.1002/qre.1996},

  journal      = {Quality and Reliability Engineering International},

  number       = 12,

  volume       = 119,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016},

  month        = {Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016}

}

Copy to clipboard

Journal Article:

Free Publicly Available Full Text

Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Publisher's Version of Record

https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.1996

Other availability

Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 3 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Export Metadata

Save to My Library

Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections:

Failure Mode Classification for Life Prediction Modeling of Solid-State Lighting

Other Sakalaukus, Peter Joseph

Since the passing of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the U.S. government has mandated greater energy independence which has acted as a catalyst for accelerating and facilitating research efforts toward the development and deployment of market-driven solutions for energy-saving homes, buildings and manufacturing, as well as sustainable transportation and renewable electricity generation. As part of this effort, an emphasis toward advancing solid-state lighting technology through research, development, demonstration, and commercial applications is assisting in the phase out of the common incandescent light bulb, as well as developing a more economical lighting source that is less toxic thanmore »« less
Coupled radiation-thermal Degradation of Polymeric Systems in Nuclear Plants: Data-driven Tools to Predict Damage Accumulation & Early Failures

Technical Report Nabinejad, Omid

The lifetime prediction and reliable performance of cables under combined radiation-thermal environments are of significant interest in the nuclear industry. By developing a modular software for systematic coupling of different damage models, the project aims to develop customizable physics-based predictive tools to describe damage accumulation and eventually damage capacity in elastomer insulation of cables that are concurrently exposed to a combination of mechanical and environmental stressors such as high radiation dosage. Our software, Nord2, aims to predict static fatigue through the accumulation of mechanical and environmental damages induced by concurrent thermal and radiation aging. In view of the complexity ofmore »« less
STTR Phase 1 Final Scientific/Technical Report U. S. Department of Energy Award No. DE-SC0017768

Technical Report Rhoads-Weaver, Heather ; Lemieux, Patrick

Purpose: Downtime, troubleshooting, and maintenance remain substantial components of wind energy costs, limiting locations where wind power can compete. Sophisticated remote monitoring systems can increase reliability; however, the investment commitments required prevent their widespread use with distributed wind (DW) turbines. Maintenance expenditures often reach 50% or more of total costs over small wind turbines’ 20-year lifetimes, and poorly operating equipment can erode overall consumer confidence in wind energy. In the 2016 Sustainable Manufacturing, Advanced Research & Technology (SMART) Wind Roadmap, industry leaders identified inexpensive predictive health monitoring as a top priority to increase competitiveness. Confirming the commercial readiness and establishingmore »« less
Small Scale Field Test Demonstrating CO₂ Sequestration In Arbuckle Saline Aquifer And By CO₂-Eor At Wellington Field, Sumner County, Kansas

Technical Report Holubnyak, Yevhen Eugene ; Watney, Lynn ; Hollenbach, Jennifer ; ...

The objectives of this project are to understand the processes that occur when a maximum of 70,000 metric tonnes of CO₂ are injected into two different formations to evaluate the response in different lithofacies and depositional environments. The evaluation will be accomplished through the use of both in situ and indirect MVA (monitoring, verification, and accounting) technologies. The project will optimize for carbon storage accounting for 99% of the CO₂ using lab and field testing and comprehensive characterization and modeling techniques. Site characterization and CO₂ injection should demonstrate state-of-the-art MVA tools and techniques to monitor and visualize the injected CO₂more »« less
https://doi.org/10.2172/1420310

Full Text Available
Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

Technical Report Duffy, Stephen

This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predictmore »« less
https://doi.org/10.2172/1095244

Full Text Available

Similar Records