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Title: Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [1]
  1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  3. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  4. ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1242035
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA--6A20-64923
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 131; Journal Issue: 1; Related Information: Climatic Change; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES electricity demand and supply