ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V
Abstract
The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivity analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.
- Authors:
-
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1237370
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-2015-1005J
Journal ID: ISSN 2377-2158; 566972
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 31; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2377-2158
- Publisher:
- ASME
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 42 ENGINEERING; safety; reliability; simulation; calibration; chaos; computation; model validation; polynomials; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty
Citation Formats
Beghini, Lauren L., and Hough, Patricia D. ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1115/1.4032369.
Beghini, Lauren L., & Hough, Patricia D. ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V. United States. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4032369
Beghini, Lauren L., and Hough, Patricia D. Fri .
"ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V". United States. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4032369. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1237370.
@article{osti_1237370,
title = {ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V},
author = {Beghini, Lauren L. and Hough, Patricia D.},
abstractNote = {The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivity analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.},
doi = {10.1115/1.4032369},
journal = {Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification},
number = 5,
volume = 31,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Dec 18 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Fri Dec 18 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}
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