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This content will become publicly available on December 18, 2016

Title: ASME V\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V

The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivity analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1237370
Report Number(s):
SAND--2015-1005J
Journal ID: ISSN 2377-2158; 566972
Grant/Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 31; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2377-2158
Publisher:
ASME
Research Org:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING safety; reliability; simulation; calibration; chaos; computation; model validation; polynomials; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty