How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?
Abstract
Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM's ability to reduce long-term ($$\gg$$103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM's effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here in this paper, we assess AM's ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM's possible effects on future sea-level rise.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Earth and Environmental Sciences Inst.
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1222413
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1238981; OSTI ID: 1457400
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0005171
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 10 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; albedo modification; geoengineering; solar radiation management; Greenland Ice Sheet; ice sheet modeling; ice sheet; glaciology
Citation Formats
Applegate, Patrick J., and Keller, Klaus. How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?. United Kingdom: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018.
Applegate, Patrick J., & Keller, Klaus. How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018
Applegate, Patrick J., and Keller, Klaus. Mon .
"How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018.
@article{osti_1222413,
title = {How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?},
author = {Applegate, Patrick J. and Keller, Klaus},
abstractNote = {Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM's ability to reduce long-term ($\gg$103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM's effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here in this paper, we assess AM's ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM's possible effects on future sea-level rise.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 8,
volume = 10,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Mon Aug 17 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Aug 17 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 18 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
journal, August 2011
- Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The Incredible Economics of Geoengineering
journal, December 2007
- Barrett, Scott
- Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 39, Issue 1
A new assessment of the error budget of global mean sea level rate estimated by satellite altimetry over 1993–2008
journal, January 2009
- Ablain, M.; Cazenave, A.; Valladeau, G.
- Ocean Science, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
journal, January 2013
- Bindschadler, Robert A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, Issue 214
Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering
journal, January 2009
- Robock, Alan; Marquardt, Allison; Kravitz, Ben
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 19
The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world
journal, February 2014
- Sanford, Todd; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Luers, Amy
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management
journal, January 2012
- Irvine, P. J.; Sriver, R. L.; Keller, K.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 2
Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss
journal, November 2009
- van den Broeke, M.; Bamber, J.; Ettema, J.
- Science, Vol. 326, Issue 5955
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 ad
journal, January 2009
- Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 4
The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO 2 world
journal, October 2009
- Irvine, Peter J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 4, Issue 4
Relation of measured basal temperatures and the spatial distribution of the geothermal heat flux for the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2005
- Greve, Ralf
- Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 42
Timing and origin of recent regional ice-mass loss in Greenland
journal, June 2012
- Sasgen, Ingo; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, Jonathan L.
- Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 333-334
How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?: SEA LEVEL RESPONSE TO FORCINGS BY 2100
journal, April 2010
- Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 7
Inability of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to preserve the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOLS AND WAIS
journal, June 2015
- McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 12
History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights
journal, July 2010
- Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, J. T.; Brigham-Grette, J.
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 29, Issue 15-16
Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale
journal, December 2014
- Applegate, Patrick J.; Parizek, Byron R.; Nicholas, Robert E.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 7-8
A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland
journal, January 2013
- Bamber, J. L.; Griggs, J. A.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from 1958 to 2007
journal, January 2008
- Rignot, E.; Box, J. E.; Burgess, E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 20
Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO 2 : climate responses simulated by four earth system models
journal, January 2012
- Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Bou Karam, D.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise
journal, January 2011
- Schewe, J.; Levermann, A.; Meinshausen, M.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet
journal, March 2012
- Robinson, Alexander; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6
What do glaciers tell us about climate variability and climate change?
journal, January 2011
- Roe, Gerard H.
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 57, Issue 203
Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate
journal, March 2015
- Sillmann, Jana; Lenton, Timothy M.; Levermann, Anders
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 4
Probabilistic calibration of a Greenland Ice Sheet model using spatially resolved synthetic observations: toward projections of ice mass loss with uncertainties
journal, January 2014
- Chang, W.; Applegate, P. J.; Haran, M.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 5
Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise
journal, August 2010
- Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 36
Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models: CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN CMIP5 MODELS
journal, May 2012
- Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 9
An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior
journal, January 2012
- Applegate, P. J.; Kirchner, N.; Stone, E. J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 3
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011
- Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Application of a Polythermal Three-Dimensional Ice Sheet Model to the Greenland Ice Sheet: Response to Steady-State and Transient Climate Scenarios
journal, May 1997
- Greve, Ralf
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, Issue 5
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?
journal, July 2006
- Crutzen, Paul J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 77, Issue 3-4
Initial results of the SeaRISE numerical experiments with the models SICOPOLIS and IcIES for the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2011
- Greve, Ralf; Saito, Fuyuki; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
- Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 52, Issue 58
A Combined Mitigation/Geoengineering Approach to Climate Stabilization
journal, October 2006
- Wigley, T. M. L.
- Science, Vol. 314, Issue 5798
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
journal, February 2008
- Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, Issue 6
The Tolerable Windows Approach: Theoretical and Methodological Foundations
journal, January 1999
- Petschel-Held, Gerhard; Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim; Bruckner, Thomas
- Climatic Change, Vol. 41, Issue 3/4, p. 303-331
Research on global sun block needed now
journal, January 2010
- Keith, David W.; Parson, Edward; Morgan, M. Granger
- Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7280
Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model – Part 2: Near-surface climate and energy balance
journal, January 2010
- Ettema, J.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Meijgaard, E.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 4, Issue 4
Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model – Part 1: Evaluation
journal, January 2010
- Ettema, J.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Meijgaard, E.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 4, Issue 4
Extending Greenland temperature records into the late eighteenth century
journal, January 2006
- Vinther, B. M.; Andersen, K. K.; Jones, P. D.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D11
Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios
journal, January 2012
- Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.
- Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 80-81