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Title: Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material

Abstract

Nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) is used in nonproliferation applications, including identification of SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at safeguarded facilities. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one widely used way to express confidence in assay results. NDA specialists typically partition total uncertainty into “random” and “systematic” components so that, for example, an error bar can be developed for the SNM mass estimate in one item or for the total SNM mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we describe possible extensions to the GUM by illustrating UQ challenges in NDA that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. Here, a case study is presented using gamma spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the235U mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the ASTM international standard test method for application of the enrichment meter principle usingmore » gamma spectra.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1222059
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1348309
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-109874
Journal ID: ISSN 1687-725X; NN2001000
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Sensors
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 2015; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1687-725X
Publisher:
Hindawi
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; uncertainty quantification; nuclear safeguards; simulation; 46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Citation Formats

Burr, Tom, Croft, Stephen, and Jarman, Kenneth D. Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1155/2015/267462.
Burr, Tom, Croft, Stephen, & Jarman, Kenneth D. Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material. United States. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/267462
Burr, Tom, Croft, Stephen, and Jarman, Kenneth D. Sat . "Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material". United States. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/267462. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1222059.
@article{osti_1222059,
title = {Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material},
author = {Burr, Tom and Croft, Stephen and Jarman, Kenneth D.},
abstractNote = {Nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) is used in nonproliferation applications, including identification of SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at safeguarded facilities. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one widely used way to express confidence in assay results. NDA specialists typically partition total uncertainty into “random” and “systematic” components so that, for example, an error bar can be developed for the SNM mass estimate in one item or for the total SNM mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we describe possible extensions to the GUM by illustrating UQ challenges in NDA that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. Here, a case study is presented using gamma spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the235U mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the ASTM international standard test method for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra.},
doi = {10.1155/2015/267462},
journal = {Journal of Sensors},
number = 4,
volume = 2015,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Sep 05 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Sat Sep 05 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

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