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Title: Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [9] ;  [10] ;  [1] ;  [11] ;  [12] ;  [13] ;  [14] ;  [5]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. WindLogics, St. Paul, MN (United States)
  3. ICF International, Washington, DC (United States); Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, DC (United States)
  4. Sharply Focused, Portland, OR (United States)
  5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
  6. State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States). Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
  7. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
  8. Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, DC (United States)
  9. Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), Sacramento, CA (United States)
  10. IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY (United States)
  11. WindLogics, Grand Rapids, MN (United States)
  12. Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO), Honolulu, HI (United States)
  13. Southern California Edison (SCE), Rosemead, CA (United States)
  14. Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Taylor, TX (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1220632
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA--5D00-63007
Journal ID: ISSN 1949-3029
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1949-3029
Publisher:
IEEE
Research Org:
NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States))
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION forecasting; large-scale integration; market design; power system reliability; renewable energy (RE); solar energy; variable generation; wind energy; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); NREL