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Title: Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

Abstract

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, andmore » sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [3];  [15];  [16];  [17];  [18] more »;  [19];  [20] « less
  1. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept. of Geosciences.
  2. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences.
  3. Boise State Univ., Boise, ID (United States). Dept. of Geosciences.
  4. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Dept. of Geology.
  5. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). School of Natural Resources and the Environment.
  6. Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States). Dept. of Geosciences.
  7. Environmental Sciences Centre, Nottingham (United Kingdom). British Geological Survey.
  8. Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept of Civil Engineering, St. Anthony Falls Lab.
  9. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Earth and Space Exploration.
  10. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept of Geography.
  11. Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)
  12. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences; Duke Univ. Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Univ. of Padova, Padova (Italy). Dept. of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering.
  13. Franklin & Marshall College, Lancaster, PA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Environment.
  14. Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences.
  15. Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Dept. of Geology.
  16. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Division of Earth and Environmental Sciences.
  17. Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States). College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
  18. Univ. of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (United States). Dept. of Geology.
  19. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences.
  20. Univ. of Idaho, Boise, ID (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering.
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1212449
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Pelletier, Jon D., Murray, A. Brad, Pierce, Jennifer L., Bierman, Paul R., Breshears, David D., Crosby, Benjamin T., Ellis, Michael, Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi, Heimsath, Arjun M., Houser, Chris, Lancaster, Nick, Marani, Marco, Merritts, Dorothy J., Moore, Laura J., Pederson, Joel L., Poulos, Michael J., Rittenour, Tammy M., Rowland, Joel C., Ruggiero, Peter, Ward, Dylan J., Wickert, Andrew D., and Yager, Elowyn M.. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2014EF000290.
Pelletier, Jon D., Murray, A. Brad, Pierce, Jennifer L., Bierman, Paul R., Breshears, David D., Crosby, Benjamin T., Ellis, Michael, Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi, Heimsath, Arjun M., Houser, Chris, Lancaster, Nick, Marani, Marco, Merritts, Dorothy J., Moore, Laura J., Pederson, Joel L., Poulos, Michael J., Rittenour, Tammy M., Rowland, Joel C., Ruggiero, Peter, Ward, Dylan J., Wickert, Andrew D., & Yager, Elowyn M.. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000290
Pelletier, Jon D., Murray, A. Brad, Pierce, Jennifer L., Bierman, Paul R., Breshears, David D., Crosby, Benjamin T., Ellis, Michael, Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi, Heimsath, Arjun M., Houser, Chris, Lancaster, Nick, Marani, Marco, Merritts, Dorothy J., Moore, Laura J., Pederson, Joel L., Poulos, Michael J., Rittenour, Tammy M., Rowland, Joel C., Ruggiero, Peter, Ward, Dylan J., Wickert, Andrew D., and Yager, Elowyn M.. Tue . "Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000290. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1212449.
@article{osti_1212449,
title = {Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs},
author = {Pelletier, Jon D. and Murray, A. Brad and Pierce, Jennifer L. and Bierman, Paul R. and Breshears, David D. and Crosby, Benjamin T. and Ellis, Michael and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi and Heimsath, Arjun M. and Houser, Chris and Lancaster, Nick and Marani, Marco and Merritts, Dorothy J. and Moore, Laura J. and Pederson, Joel L. and Poulos, Michael J. and Rittenour, Tammy M. and Rowland, Joel C. and Ruggiero, Peter and Ward, Dylan J. and Wickert, Andrew D. and Yager, Elowyn M.},
abstractNote = {In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000290},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 7,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jul 14 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Tue Jul 14 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

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Modeling the effects of wave climate and sediment supply variability on large-scale shoreline change
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Contemporary glacigenic inputs to the dust cycle: CONTEMPORARY GLACIGENIC INPUTS TO THE DUST CYCLE
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Quantifying overwash flux in barrier systems: An example from Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, USA
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Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?: CLIMATE CHANGE AND LANDSLIDES IN HIGH MOUNTAINS
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Recalibrating aeolian sand transport models: RECALIBRATING TRANSPORT MODELS
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The ‘little ice age’: re‐evaluation of an evolving concept
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Drainage subsidence associated with Arctic permafrost degradation: ARCTIC DRAINAGE SUBSIDENCE
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The role of groundwater in the Amazon water cycle: 1. Influence on seasonal streamflow, flooding and wetlands: AMAZON GROUNDWATER-SURFACE WATER LINK
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Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009
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Transition of a regressive to a transgressive barrier island due to back-barrier erosion, increased storminess, and low sediment supply: Bogue Banks, North Carolina, USA
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A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise: AN ACCELERATION IN GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE
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Developing channel and floodplain dimensions with limited data: a case study in the Amazon Basin: DEVELOPING CHANNEL AND FLOODPLAIN DIMENSIONS WITH LIMITED DATA
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Without power? Landslide inventories in the face of climate change: WITHOUT POWER? LANDSLIDE INVENTORIES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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A numerical model for the coupled long-term evolution of salt marshes and tidal flats
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Shear Stress Partitioning in Sparsely Vegetated Desert Canopies
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A less dusty future?: A LESS DUSTY FUTURE?
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Global climate and tectonic controls on the denudation of glaciated mountains
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The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change
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Rock damage and regolith transport by frost: an example of climate modulation of the geomorphology of the critical zone: ROCK DAMAGE AND REGOLITH TRANSPORT BY FROST
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Reconciling arroyo cycle and paleoflood approaches to late Holocene alluvial records in dryland streams
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Recent rapid thinning of the “Mer de Glace” glacier derived from satellite optical images: THINNING OF GLACIER FROM SATELLITE DATA
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Progress in coupling models of coastline and fluvial dynamics
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21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?: 21ST CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE: WHERE HAS ALL THE GEOMORPHOLOGY GONE?
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Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models
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Integrating the LISFLOOD-FP 2D hydrodynamic model with the CAESAR model: implications for modelling landscape evolution: INTEGRATING HYDRODYNAMICS IN LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION MODELS
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  • Langbein, W. B.; Schumm, S. A.
  • Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 39, Issue 6
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Proglacial lakes: character, behaviour and geological importance
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Aeolian Decoupling of Beach Sediments
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A wave tank experiment on the erosional mechanism at a cliff base
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Biotic Control over the Functioning of Ecosystems
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Development of linear dunes in the southwestern Kalahari, Southern Africa
journal, May 1988


Works referencing / citing this record:

Long-profile evolution of transport-limited gravel-bed rivers
text, January 2019


Does nature matter? Arguing for a biophysical turn in the ecotourism narrative
journal, March 2019


Influence of anthropogenic land-use change on hillslope erosion in the Waipaoa River Basin, New Zealand: Anthropogenic Land-Use Change Increases Erosion Rate in Waipaoa Basin
journal, July 2016

  • Cerovski-Darriau, Corina; Roering, Joshua J.
  • Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 41, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1002/esp.3969

Long-profile evolution of transport-limited gravel-bed rivers
journal, January 2019


Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain
journal, January 2020


Quantifying and forecasting changes in the areal extent of river valley sediment in response to altered hydrology and land cover
journal, September 2018

  • Kasprak, Alan; Sankey, Joel B.; Buscombe, Daniel
  • Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 42, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1177/0309133318795846

Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model
journal, January 2019

  • Lentz, Erika E.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert
  • Earth Surface Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/esurf-7-429-2019

Which way do you lean? Using slope aspect variations to understand Critical Zone processes and feedbacks: Which way do you lean?
journal, February 2018

  • Pelletier, Jon D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Gutiérrez-Jurado, Hugo
  • Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 43, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1002/esp.4306

Coarser and rougher: Effects of fine gravel pulses on experimental step-pool channel morphodynamics: STEP-POOL RESPONSE TO FINE GRAVEL Pulse
journal, October 2015

  • Johnson, J. P. L.; Aronovitz, A. C.; Kim, W.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015gl066097

Coupled topographic and vegetation patterns in coastal dunes: Remote sensing observations and ecomorphodynamic implications: Ecogeomorphic Patterns in Coastal Dunes
journal, January 2017

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  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016jg003540

A Global Data Analysis for Representing Sediment and Particulate Organic Carbon Yield in Earth System Models: A GLOBAL DATA ANALYSIS OF SEDIMENT YIELD
journal, December 2017

  • Tan, Zeli; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hongyi
  • Water Resources Research, Vol. 53, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017wr020806

The influence of Holocene vegetation changes on topography and erosion rates: A case study at Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona
journal, January 2016

  • Pelletier, Jon D.; Nichols, Mary H.; Nearing, Mark A.
  • Earth Surface Dynamics Discussions
  • DOI: 10.5194/esurf-2016-3