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Title: Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reducesmore » the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [2] ;  [5] ;  [3] ;  [3] ;  [3] ;  [5] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [2] ;  [5]
  1. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  2. Industrial Economics, Cambridge, MA (United States)
  3. Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1208767
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--93379
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; 400408000
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 131; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY