Title: Source sector and region contributions to BC and PM_2.5 in Central Asia

Abstract

Particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations, seasonal cycles, source sector, and source region contributions in Central Asia (CA) are analyzed for the period April 2008–July 2009 using the Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) chemical transport model and modeled meteorology from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Predicted aerosol optical depth (AOD) values (annual mean value ~0.2) in CA vary seasonally, with lowest values in the winter. Surface PM_2.5 concentrations (annual mean value ~10 μg m⁻³) also exhibit a seasonal cycle, with peak values and largest variability in the spring/summer, and lowest values and variability in the winter (hourly values from 2 to 90 μg m⁻³). Surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) (mean value ~0.1 μg m⁻³) show peak values in the winter. The simulated values are compared to surface measurements of AOD as well as PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC, and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations at two regional sites in Kyrgyzstan (Lidar Station Teplokluchenka (LST) and Bishkek). The predicted values of AOD and PM mass concentrations and their seasonal cycles are fairly well captured. The carbonaceous aerosols are underpredicted in winter, and analysis suggests that the winter heating emissions are underestimated in the current inventory. Dust, from sources within andmore » outside CA, is a significant component of the PM mass and drives the seasonal cycles of PM and AOD. On an annual basis, the power and industrial sectors are found to be the most important contributors to the anthropogenic portion of PM_2.5. Residential combustion and transportation are shown to be the most important sectors for BC. Biomass burning within and outside the region also contributes to elevated PM and BC concentrations. The analysis of the transport pathways and the variations in particulate matter mass and composition in CA demonstrates that this region is strategically located to characterize regional and intercontinental transport of pollutants. Aerosols at these sites are shown to reflect dust, biomass burning, and anthropogenic sources from Europe; South, East, and Central Asia; and Russia depending on the time period. Simulations for a reference 2030 emission scenario based on pollution abatement measures already committed to in current legislation show that PM_2.5 and BC concentrations in the region increase, with BC growing more than PM_2.5 on a relative basis. This indicates that both the health impacts and the climate warming associated with these particles may increase over the next decades unless additional control measures are taken. The importance of observations in CA to help characterize the changes that are rapidly taking place in the region are discussed.« less

Authors:

Kulkarni, S. ^[1]; Sobhani, N. ^[1]; Miller-Schulze, J. P. ^[2]; Shafer, M. M. ^[2]; Schauer, J. J. ^[2]; Solomon, P. A. ^[3]; Saide, P. E. ^[1]; Spak, S. N.  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Spak, S. N."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-8545-1411"

Cheng, Y. F. ^[1]; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.  ^[4];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Denier van der Gon, H. A. C."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-9552-3688"

Lu, Z. ^[1]; Streets, D. G. ^[4]; Janssens-Maenhout, G. ^[5]; Wiedinmyer, C. ^[6]; Lantz, J. ^[3]; Artamonova, M. ^[7]; Chen, B. ^[8]; Imashev, S. ^[8]; Sverdlik, L. ^[8]; Deminter, J. T. ^[9] more »; Adhikary, B. ^[1]; D'Allura, A. ^[10]; Wei, C. ^[1]; Carmichael, G. R. ^[1] « less

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States)
2. Wisconsin State Lab. of Hygiene, Madison, WI (United States); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
3. U.S. EPA, Las Vegas, NV (United States)
4. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
5. European Commission, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre
6. National Center for Atmospheric Physics, Moscow (Russia)
7. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Moscow (Russia)
8. Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic Univ., Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)
9. Wisconsin State Lab. of Hygiene, Madison, WI (United States)
10. ARIANET, Milan (Italy)

Publication Date:

Wed Feb 18 00:00:00 EST 2015

Research Org.:

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1201744

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1222962

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC02-06CH11357

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324

Publisher:

European Geosciences Union

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES