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Title: Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd. MS50F, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
  2. Divecha Center for Climate Change, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India
  3. Climate Central, Inc., 895 Emerson St., Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA
  4. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, 94551-0808, USA
  5. Google, Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1197941
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Advances in Meteorology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 2010; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2016-08-11 14:06:52; Journal ID: ISSN 1687-9309
Publisher:
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
Egypt
Language:
English