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Title: Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM₂̣₅) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM₂̣₅ concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM₂̣₅ and its gaseous precursors on PM₂̣₅ concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM₂̣₅ concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM₂̣₅ to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, wemore » identify the major sources contributing to PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM₂̣₅ to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [1] ;  [4] ;  [3] ;  [5] ;  [4] ;  [6] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  2. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); State Environmental Protection Key Lab. of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing (China)
  3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
  4. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  5. South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China)
  6. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1195951
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES