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Title: Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Nordita, Stockholm (Sweden); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. Nordita, Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1193717
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Sustainability (Basel)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Sustainability (Basel); Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2071-1050
Publisher:
MDPI
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION sustainable economic development; energy consumption; developing world