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Title: Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Abstract

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is due not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but, perhaps most crucially, the multitude of epidemiological, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the last 10-15 years. In this article, and Theme Issue, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions, and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field moving forwards. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. This Theme Issue seeks to cover both, reflected in the breadth and depth of the topics and VBD-systems considered, itself strongly indicative of the challenging, but necessary, multidisciplinary nature of this research field.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [10];  [14];  [15];  [16];  [17]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdom). Dept. of Public Health and Policy; Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  2. The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  3. Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  4. UK Meteorological Office, Exeter (United Kingdom). Meteorological Office Hadley Centre
  5. Austin Peay State Univ. Clarksville, TN (United States). Dept. of Mathematics
  6. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  7. Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States). Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources
  8. Old Dominium Univ., Norfolk, VA (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences
  9. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center; Arizona State Univ., Phoenix, AZ (United States). School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences
  10. Cary Inst. of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY (United States)
  11. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Mathematics
  12. Clark Atlanta Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States). Dept. of Physics
  13. Tufts Univ. School of Engineering, Medford, MA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  14. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases
  15. Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Entomology
  16. Univ. Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City (Mexico)
  17. Univ. of Notre Dame, IN (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
OSTI Identifier:
1185849
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; EF-0832858
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 370; Journal Issue: 1665; Journal ID: ISSN 0962-8436
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; vector-borne diseases; human health; modelling; climate

Citation Formats

Parham, Paul E., Waldock, Joanna, Christophides, George K., Hemming, Deborah, Agusto, Folashade, Evans, Katherine J., Fefferman, Nina, Gaff, Holly, Gumel, Abba, LaDeau, Shannon, Lenhart, Suzanne, Mickens, Ronald E., Naumova, Elena N., Ostfeld, Richard S., Ready, Paul D., Thomas, Matthew B., Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge, and Michael, Edwin. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0551.
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Parham, Paul E., Waldock, Joanna, Christophides, George K., Hemming, Deborah, Agusto, Folashade, Evans, Katherine J., Fefferman, Nina, Gaff, Holly, Gumel, Abba, LaDeau, Shannon, Lenhart, Suzanne, Mickens, Ronald E., Naumova, Elena N., Ostfeld, Richard S., Ready, Paul D., Thomas, Matthew B., Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge, & Michael, Edwin. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission. United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0551
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Parham, Paul E., Waldock, Joanna, Christophides, George K., Hemming, Deborah, Agusto, Folashade, Evans, Katherine J., Fefferman, Nina, Gaff, Holly, Gumel, Abba, LaDeau, Shannon, Lenhart, Suzanne, Mickens, Ronald E., Naumova, Elena N., Ostfeld, Richard S., Ready, Paul D., Thomas, Matthew B., Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge, and Michael, Edwin. Mon . "Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission". United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0551. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1185849.
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@article{osti_1185849,
title = {Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission},
author = {Parham, Paul E. and Waldock, Joanna and Christophides, George K. and Hemming, Deborah and Agusto, Folashade and Evans, Katherine J. and Fefferman, Nina and Gaff, Holly and Gumel, Abba and LaDeau, Shannon and Lenhart, Suzanne and Mickens, Ronald E. and Naumova, Elena N. and Ostfeld, Richard S. and Ready, Paul D. and Thomas, Matthew B. and Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge and Michael, Edwin},
abstractNote = {Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is due not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but, perhaps most crucially, the multitude of epidemiological, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the last 10-15 years. In this article, and Theme Issue, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions, and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field moving forwards. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. This Theme Issue seeks to cover both, reflected in the breadth and depth of the topics and VBD-systems considered, itself strongly indicative of the challenging, but necessary, multidisciplinary nature of this research field.},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0551},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences},
number = 1665,
volume = 370,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 16 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Mon Feb 16 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}
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    Climate change and health: An analysis of causal relations on the spread of vector-borne diseases in Brazil
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    The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus
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    The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk
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    Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models
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    Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain
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    Carry-over effects of urban larval environments on the transmission potential of dengue-2 virus
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    The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world
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    Experimental infection and transmission of Leishmania by Lutzomyia cruzi (Diptera: Psychodidae): Aspects of the ecology of parasite-vector interactions
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    A large-scale stochastic spatiotemporal model for Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya epidemiology
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    Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus
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    Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus
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    • Khan, Mohd Danish; Thi Vu, Hong Ha; Lai, Quang Tuan
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    Advancing the Science of Tick and Tick-Borne Disease Surveillance in the United States
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    Development of a Graphene-Based Surface Plasmon Resonance Optical Sensor Chip for Potential Biomedical Application
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    Combining process-based and correlative models improves predictions of climate change effects on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa
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