Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm
Abstract
Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-riskmore »
- Authors:
-
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Silver Springs, MD (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1183115
- Report Number(s):
- SAND2014-17253J
Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203; 537169
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- PLoS ONE
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
- Publisher:
- Public Library of Science
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
Citation Formats
Vugrin, Eric D., Rostron, Brian L., Verzi, Stephen J., Brodsky, Nancy S., Brown, Theresa J., Choiniere, Conrad J., Coleman, Blair N., Paredes, Antonio, and Apelberg, Benjamin J. Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0121008.
Vugrin, Eric D., Rostron, Brian L., Verzi, Stephen J., Brodsky, Nancy S., Brown, Theresa J., Choiniere, Conrad J., Coleman, Blair N., Paredes, Antonio, & Apelberg, Benjamin J. Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm. United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121008
Vugrin, Eric D., Rostron, Brian L., Verzi, Stephen J., Brodsky, Nancy S., Brown, Theresa J., Choiniere, Conrad J., Coleman, Blair N., Paredes, Antonio, and Apelberg, Benjamin J. Fri .
"Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm". United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121008. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1183115.
@article{osti_1183115,
title = {Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm},
author = {Vugrin, Eric D. and Rostron, Brian L. and Verzi, Stephen J. and Brodsky, Nancy S. and Brown, Theresa J. and Choiniere, Conrad J. and Coleman, Blair N. and Paredes, Antonio and Apelberg, Benjamin J.},
abstractNote = {Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0121008},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
number = 3,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 27 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Fri Mar 27 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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