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Title: Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delay China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [7] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States). Rollins School of Public Health, Dept. of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA (United States); Emory Univ. School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA (United States)
  2. Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States). Rollins School of Public Health, Dept. of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Aurora, CO (United States). Colorado School of Public Health, Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health
  4. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). College of Public Health and Health Professions, Dept. of Environmental and Global Health
  5. China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (China). Office of Disease Control and Emergency Response
  6. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences
  7. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Science and Global Change Div. (ASGC)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1166840
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--102973
Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X; KP1703010
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; 1360330; 1249250; K01AI091864; U01EH000405; R21ES020225; RD835192010
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 4; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF); National Ins. of Health (NIH)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES quantification; climate change; water; sanitation; hygiene; China