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Title: Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

Abstract

Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1166680
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-96599
Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575; KP1703010
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 9-10; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; MONSOONS; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATION; African; monsoon; precipitation; model; simulations; land use change; land cover change; African Easterly Jet; land degradation; crop land; pasture land; regional model simulations; land surface models

Citation Formats

Hagos, Samson M., Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Xue, Yongkang, Boone, Aaron, de Sales, Fernando, Neupane, Naresh, Huang, Maoyi, and Yoon, Jin -Ho. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2092-x.
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Hagos, Samson M., Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Xue, Yongkang, Boone, Aaron, de Sales, Fernando, Neupane, Naresh, Huang, Maoyi, & Yoon, Jin -Ho. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2092-x
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Hagos, Samson M., Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby, Xue, Yongkang, Boone, Aaron, de Sales, Fernando, Neupane, Naresh, Huang, Maoyi, and Yoon, Jin -Ho. Sat . "Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2092-x. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1166680.
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@article{osti_1166680,
title = {Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model},
author = {Hagos, Samson M. and Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby and Xue, Yongkang and Boone, Aaron and de Sales, Fernando and Neupane, Naresh and Huang, Maoyi and Yoon, Jin -Ho},
abstractNote = {Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2092-x},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 9-10,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Feb 22 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Sat Feb 22 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2092-x
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    The possible role of the Sahel Greenbelt on the occurrence of climate extremes over the West African Sahel
    journal, June 2019

    • Saley, Inoussa A.; Salack, Seyni; Sanda, Ibrah S.
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    • DOI: 10.1002/asl.927

    Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes
    journal, June 2019

    • Biasutti, Michela
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.591

    West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)
    journal, June 2016

    Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon
    journal, June 2016

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    • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3237-x

    Impact of future land use and land cover change on temperature projections over East Asia
    journal, November 2018

    Sensitivity of different physics schemes in the WRF model during a West African monsoon regime
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    Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change : a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon
    text, January 2016

    Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon
    journal, June 2016

    • Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus
    • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 9-10
    • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3237-x
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