National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for year forecast 4

  1. Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

  2. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  3. MM5 Aids Forecasters Over the past five years a group in the Atmospheric

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doty, Sharon Lafferty

    Jaeglé's specialty is atmospheric chemistry. Her research deals with analysis and modelingMM5 Aids Forecasters Over the past five years a group in the Atmospheric Sciences department has around the region. (see Page 8) New Faculty Join Atmospheric Sciences In the past year, Atmospheric

  4. Testing Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoeksema, Todd

    becomes more technologically dependent on complex global systems, the potential risk posedTesting Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms J.P. Mason1 is statistically associated with changes in several characteris- tics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar

  5. Year 1 Year 2 Anne 3 Anne 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7Year 3 Year 4 INGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIENINGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIEN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cengarle, María Victoria

    Languages, Sport EP Third Year: - First 2 trimesters of courses (specialization) - Third trimester: researchYear 1 Year 2 Année 3 Année 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7Year 3 Year 4 «« INGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIENINGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIEN »» MASTERMASTER PhDPhD Two to three years of undergraduate studies Education

  6. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  7. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  8. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  9. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  10. 4 YEAR FLIGHT PLAN: BFA in Painting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Eduardo

    4 YEAR FLIGHT PLAN: BFA in Painting FAU is committed to your success as a student. One way we Name: Z: Program: Date: Advisor: Contact: Flight Plan: BFA in Painting NOTE: Some students may

  11. 4 YEAR FLIGHT PLAN: BFA in Ceramics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Eduardo

    4 YEAR FLIGHT PLAN: BFA in Ceramics FAU is committed to your success as a student. One way we Name: Z: Program: Date: Advisor: Contact: Flight Plan: BFA in Ceramics NOTE: Some students may from the college Student Advising Services (SAS). Students that are admitted to the BFA in Ceramics

  12. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  13. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  14. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ACCOUNTING (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ACCOUNTING (Suggested 4 Year Plan) YEAR 1, 1ST TERM CREDITS YEAR 1, 2ND TERM 32 YEAR 2, 1ST TERM CREDITS YEAR 2, 2ND TERM CREDITS ACCT 0201 Financial Accounting Concepts 4 ACCT term 14 Credits per term 16 Credits per academic year 30 YEAR 3, 1ST TERM CREDITS YEAR 3, 2ND TERM

  15. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN BIOLOGY (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Credit hours per academic year 32-33 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS UpperBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN BIOLOGY (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND hours per academic year 30 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS BIOL 0203

  16. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE MATH EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Credits Per Academic Year 32 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1307BACHELOR OF SCIENCE MATH EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR 19 Total Credits Per Academic Year 36 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS

  17. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN SOCIAL SCIENCES (Suggested 4 Year Plan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Academic Year 30 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS Major Elective 3 ANTH, ECONBACHELOR OF ARTS IN SOCIAL SCIENCES (Suggested 4 Year Plan FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR Term 15 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Academic Year 30 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND

  18. 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment DATA This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets. The sources are: 1) Observed 2004 Kodiak precipitation totals (inches) from hourly observations. Data for 2004 were obtained from the NOAA National

  19. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN WRITING (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Term 16 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Academic Year 31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2NDBACHELOR OF ARTS IN WRITING (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND II 3 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Academic Year 30 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM

  20. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4) AugustA. -71- Particulate: Columns 59 and R e s e a

  1. EM Contractors' Donations Support 4-Year Engineering Degree at...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Contractors' Donations Support 4-Year Engineering Degree at USC Aiken EM Contractors' Donations Support 4-Year Engineering Degree at USC Aiken April 29, 2014 - 4:27pm Addthis...

  2. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN SOCIOLOGY (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Credits Per Academic Year 31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS SOC 1401 SocialBACHELOR OF ARTS IN SOCIOLOGY (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND YEAR CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 ENG 0101 English Composition

  3. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN CHEMISTRY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Total Credits Per Term 19 Total Credits Per Term 18 Total Credits Per Academic Year 37 FOURTH YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, SECOND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1307 Secondary Methods* 4 EDUC 1481 StudentBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN CHEMISTRY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS

  4. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN PSYCHOLOGY (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Courses 3 Credits Per Term 16 Credits Per Term 16 Credits Per Academic Term Year 32 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS PSY 1452 Capstone: Psychology , PSY Electives 3-6 PSY 1452 CapstoneBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN PSYCHOLOGY (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR

  5. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN BROADCAST COMMUNICATIONS (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    academic year 31 Fourth Year, 1st Term Credits Fourth Year, 2nd Term Credits Minor Course 3 COMM 1451BACHELOR OF ARTS IN BROADCAST COMMUNICATIONS (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 ENG 0101

  6. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Per Term 15 Total Credits Per Academic Year 30 FORTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERMBACHELOR OF ARTS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 ENG 0101 English

  7. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN BIOLOGY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Credits per academic year 32-33 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1307BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN BIOLOGY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ENG 0101 English Composition I 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 BIO 0101

  8. BACHELOR OF SCIENCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Credits per term 15 Credits per academic year 31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERMBACHELOR OF SCIENCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS ENG 0101 English Composition I 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 MGMT

  9. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ACCOUNTING (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Huiqiang

    or Political Science 3 Elective 1 Credits per term 16 Credits per term 15 Credits per academic year 31 FOURTH YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, SECOND TERM CREDITS MATH 1452 1 MATH 1452 Capstone: Mathematics 2BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ACCOUNTING (Suggested 4 Year Plan) YEAR 1, 1ST TERM CREDITS YEAR 1, 2ND TERM

  10. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN ENGLISH (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    , Philosophical Inquiry (NW) 3 Credits per term 15 Credits per term 15 Credits per academic year 30 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS Upper Level Major Elective (ENG 1499 InternshipBACHELOR OF ARTS IN ENGLISH (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND

  11. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN CHEMISTRY (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    and Letters 3 Total Credits Per Term 15 Total Credits Per Term 16 Total Credits Per Academic Year 31 FOURTH YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, SECOND TERM CREDITS CHEM 1451 Capstone 2 CHEM 1451 Capstone 2 GEBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN CHEMISTRY (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR

  12. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  13. Oxford Postgraduate: Year One (1963-4)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Macfarlane, Alan

    2015-06-16

    -6, the DPhil years were in laying the foundations of what I did over the following 45 years. Among these were: a. Teaching and supervising undergraduates - at Hertford b. Lecturing - the WEA classes c. Examining - the entrance exams at Worcester with HGP d... . High Tale (don's) life - with HGP and Keith Thomas e. Life histories - conversations, especially with Lady Clay, but also Hugh Trevor- Roper, E-P and others - leading later into the interviews. f. The breaking up of information - one fact, one card...

  14. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ATHLETIC TRAINING (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    16 Credit hours per term 15 Credit hours per academic year 31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTHBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ATHLETIC TRAINING (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 HPRED 0108 Nutrition 3 HPRED 0101

  15. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN RADIOLOGICAL SCIENCE (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Credits per term 16 Credits per term 18 Credits per academic year 34 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM FOURTH YEAR, 3rd TERM (Summer) Radiographic Procedures III Radiation Biology General ReviewBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN RADIOLOGICAL SCIENCE (Suggested 4 Year Plan) Please note

  16. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENGLISH EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    -19 Credits per term 18 Credits per academic year 36-37 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERMBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENGLISH EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) NOTE: Students who started at Pitt- Bradford fall 2013 and after must complete TWO GE courses designed as GLOBAL. FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS

  17. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN HOSPITALITY MANAGMENET (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Hospitality & Tourism Marketing 3 Credits per term 16 Credits per term 16 Credits per academic year 32 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS HMGT Level Elective 3 HMGT 1451 Senior SeminarBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN HOSPITALITY MANAGMENET (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS

  18. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    : PEDC 1 Credits Per Term 16 Credits Per Term 16 Credits Per Academic Year 32 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ENVSTD Upper Level Elective (Internship Recommended) 3 ENVSTD 1451BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS

  19. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SPORTS MEDICINE (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS HPRED 1405 Research Methods 3 HPREDBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SPORTS MEDICINE (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 ENG 0101 English

  20. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN ECONOMICS (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Per Academic Year 31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS Sectoral EconomicsBACHELOR OF ARTS IN ECONOMICS (Suggested 4 Year Plan) Please note that this is a potential plan for completing your degree within four years. The order of classes does not necessarily need to be followed

  1. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN PUBLIC RELATIONS (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    31 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS PR 1499 Internship in Public RelationsBACHELOR OF ARTS IN PUBLIC RELATIONS (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 ENG 0101 English

  2. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    or Political Science 3 Elective 1 Credits per term 16 Credits per term 15 Credits per academic year 31 FOURTH YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, SECOND TERM CREDITS MATH 1452 1 MATH 1452 Capstone: Mathematics 2BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, FIRST TERM CREDITS

  3. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing

  4. 3rd and 4th Year Information Session

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prodiæ, Aleksandar

    3rd and 4th Year Information Session Professor Shahrokh Valaee Associate Chair, Undergraduate: Analog & Digital Electronics January 10 2-3pm WB116 January 7, 2014 #12;ECE Flexible Curriculum, 3rd & 4 7, 2014 #12;3rd and 4th Year Courses (Areas 1 ­ 4) - EE Area 1 Photonics and Semiconductor Physics

  5. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN INTERDISCIPLINARY ARTS (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Elective 3 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Academic Year 30 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS Area I Upper Level Elective 3 IA 1451 Capstone 3 Area II Upper LevelBACHELOR OF ARTS IN INTERDISCIPLINARY ARTS (Suggested 4 Year Plan) Please note

  6. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN EARLY LEVEL EDUCATION (PRE K 4) (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM METHODS BLOCK B* CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1327 Science MethodsBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN EARLY LEVEL EDUCATION (PRE K ­ 4) (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2012 Males 65 Females 29 YEAR 2012 SES 3 EJEK 5 EN 04 3 NN (Engineering) 21 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 61 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2011 Males 21 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 3 EJEK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American...

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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  14. Year 4 Programme and Module Integrated Masters degree programmes in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rzepa, Henry S.

    Chemistry (Industrial) Chemistry (International) Chemistry with Analytical Chemistry Chemistry with Analytical Chemistry (Industrial) Chemistry with Colour Science Medicinal Chemistry Medicinal ChemistryYear 4 Programme and Module Handbook 2014-2015 Integrated Masters degree programmes in: Chemistry

  15. SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ Year #1 Year #2 Year #3 Year #4

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Suzuki, Masatsugu

    . (if needed) Events During Defense-Semester ECE PhD Time-LinePost-MS 3rd Week Week N - 7 Week N - 1SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ Year #1 Year #2 Year #3 Year #4

  16. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  17. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  18. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  19. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

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  5. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  6. BACHELOR OF ARTS IN HUMAN RELATIONS (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    degree standing. FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG Academic Year 31 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ANTH Elective 3 ANTH 0230 YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS THIRD YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS SOC 1302 Socialization 3 ANTH Elective 3 PSY

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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  10. Guidelines for Siena College Department of Biology 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion and post-tenure review.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Fourth-year review committees: These committees will consist of all tenured and tenure-track faculty of reviews and the need to provide more specific feedback, the second and fourth year reviews ballot shallGuidelines for Siena College Department of Biology 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion

  11. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  12. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

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  14. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  15. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SOCIAL STUDIES EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Term 18 Total Credits Per Term 18 Total Credits Per Academic Year 34 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1307 Secondary Methods* 4 EDUC 1481 Student Teaching 12 EDUC 1330BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SOCIAL STUDIES EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM

  16. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE BUSINESS, COMPUTER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1307 Secondary Methods * 4 EDUC 1481BACHELOR OF SCIENCE BUSINESS, COMPUTER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ENG 0101 English Composition I 3 ENG 0102

  17. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN PHYSICAL SCIENCES-CHEMISTRY CONCENTRATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Term 14 Credits Per Academic Year 29 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS CHEMBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN PHYSICAL SCIENCES-CHEMISTRY CONCENTRATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English

  18. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  19. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Denver Area: Year 4,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Denver Area: Year 4, January 2003 Daniel A year of a multi-year remote sensing study in the Denver area. The remote sensor used in this study channel was somewhat significant. #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Denver Area: Year 4 2 INTRODUCTION

  20. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SPORT & RECREATION MANAGEMENT (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    : Arts & Letters 3 GE: PEDC 1 Credits Per Term 15 Credits Per Term 14 Credits Per Academic Year 29 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS HPRED 1401 Legal liability in Sport, RecreationBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SPORT & RECREATION MANAGEMENT (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM

  1. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE HEALTH/PHYSICAL EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    Sports 2 Total Credits Per Term 17 Total Credits Per Term 16 Total Credits Per Academic Year 33 FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1301 Instructional Technology 3 EDUC 1481BACHELOR OF SCIENCE HEALTH/PHYSICAL EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS

  2. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION (K-12) (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    FOURTH YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FOURTH YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS EDUC 1410 Education Practicum III 1 EDUC 1481BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION (K-12) (Suggested 4 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 ENG 0101

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    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the final year for every BEng and MEng student. · MEng students also have a third year group project focusedEng(3-year) and MEng(4-year) in BIOENGINEERING There are two undergraduate degrees in Bioengineering at Imperial College: a 3- year BEng and a 4-year MEng. Both courses provide a broad foundation

  16. 3.4 PROGRESSION RULES AND DEGREE CLASSIFICATION (Third and Fourth Year Students only)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sidorov, Nikita

    3.4 PROGRESSION RULES AND DEGREE CLASSIFICATION (Third and Fourth Year Students only) All students. In the academic year 2013-2014, they will apply to all Third and Fourth Year students in the School of Mathematics in Appendix C of this Handbook. Under these rules, to proceed to the Fourth Year of the MMath degree programme

  17. New Hampshire "4-H Horse of the Year" Peter Stone Model Horse Contest

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    New Hampshire, University of

    New Hampshire "4-H Horse of the Year" Peter Stone Model Horse® Contest Current and former 4-H members are invited to submit nominations for the New Hampshire "4- H Horse of the Year" award. The focus.Davis@unh.edu ****************************************************************************** February 2015 The University of New Hampshire Cooperative Extension is an equal opportunity educator

  18. OKLAHOMA 4-H ANNUAL REPORT 2008 The Four H's for 99 Years.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Veiga, Pedro Manuel Barbosa

    OKLAHOMA 4-H ANNUAL REPORT · 2008 The Four H's for 99 Years. HEAD. HEART. HANDS. HEALTH. #12;Question: I'd like to plan now to leave a gift to the Oklahoma 4-H Program upon my passing. What do I need(suchasafarm,residence,vacationhome,orvacantlot) ·orapercentageofyouroverallestatethatwillgototheOklahoma4-HFounda- tiontobenefittheOklahoma4-HProgram. 3.YoucannametheOklahoma4

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  19. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  20. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  1. 2.4 THIRD AND FOURTH YEARS PROGRAMME STRUCTURE In the Third Year, students on an Honours Degree Programme take course units

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sidorov, Nikita

    2.4 THIRD AND FOURTH YEARS PROGRAMME STRUCTURE In the Third Year, students on an Honours Degree. However, whereas some of these units are more suitable for the Fourth Year of the MMath programme, several flexibility in the Fourth Year. To take a Level 4 course unit in the Third Year, either students must have

  2. Facility stabilization project, fiscal year 1998 -- Multi-year workplan (MYWP) for WBS 1.4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Floberg, W.C.

    1997-09-30

    The primary Facility Stabilization mission is to provide minimum safe surveillance and maintenance of facilities and deactivate facilities on the Hanford Site, to reduce risks to workers, the public and environment, transition the facilities to a low cost, long term surveillance and maintenance state, and to provide safe and secure storage of special nuclear materials, nuclear materials, and nuclear fuel. Facility Stabilization will protect the health and safety of the public and workers, protect the environment and provide beneficial use of the facilities and other resources. Work will be in accordance with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Tri-Party Agreement), local, national, international and other agreements, and in compliance with all applicable Federal, state, and local laws. The stakeholders will be active participants in the decision processes including establishing priorities, and in developing a consistent set of rules, regulations, and laws. The work will be leveraged with a view of providing positive, lasting economic impact in the region. Effectiveness, efficiency, and discipline in all mission activities will enable Hanford Site to achieve its mission in a continuous and substantive manner. As the mission for Facility Stabilization has shifted from production to support of environmental restoration, each facility is making a transition to support the Site mission. The mission goals include the following: (1) Achieve deactivation of facilities for transfer to EM-40, using Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) plant deactivation as a model for future facility deactivation; (2) Manage nuclear materials in a safe and secure condition and where appropriate, in accordance with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards rules; (3) Treat nuclear materials as necessary, and store onsite in long-term interim safe storage awaiting a final disposition decision by US Department of Energy; (4) Implement nuclear materials disposition directives. In the near term these are anticipated to mostly involve transferring uranium to other locations for beneficial use. Work will be in accordance with the Tri-Party Agreement, and other agreements and in compliance with all applicable Federal, state and local laws. The transition to deactivation will be accomplished through a phased approach, while maintaining the facilities in a safe and compliant configuration. In addition, Facility Stabilization will continue to maintain safe long-term storage facilities for Special Nuclear Material (SNM), Nuclear Material (NM), and Nuclear Fuel (NF). The FSP deactivation strategy aligns with the deactivate facilities mission outlined in Hanford Site SE documentation. Inherent to the FSP strategies are specific Hanford Strategic Plan success indicators such as: reduction of risks to workers, the public and environment; increasing the amount of resources recovered for other uses; reduction/elimination of inventory and materials; and reduction/elimination of costly mortgages.

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Males 139 Females 88 YEAR 2012 SES 13 EX 1 EJEK 8 EN 05 23 EN 04 20 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 91 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 62 NU (TechAdmin Support) 7 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    25 Females 10 YEAR 2014 SES 1 EN 04 11 NN (Engineering) 8 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 13 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian...

  5. Guidelines for Siena College Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion and post-tenure review.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Procedures Composition of 2-year, 4-year, tenure and promotion committee(s). 1. Second-year and Fourth-year of reviews and the need to provide more specific feedback, the second and fourth year reviews ballot shall the ballot shall list two choices: Support Non-support 2. For second and fourth year reviews the vote shall

  6. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in west Los Angeles: Year 4,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    (or completely) converting engine-out CO, HC and NO emissions to carbon dioxide (CO2), waterOn-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in west Los Angeles: Year 4, October 2005 Gary A Alpharetta, Georgia 30022 Contract No. E-23-9 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in west Los Angeles: Year 4 1

  7. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4, November 2002 Gary A Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing study in the Phoenix, AZ area in the fall of 2002. The remote sensor

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    563 YEAR 2012 Males 518 Females 45 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 2 EN 04 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 209 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 335 YEAR 2012...

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 YEAR 2012 Males 64 Females 33 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 30 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 26 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 32 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 YEAR 2011 Males 38 Females 9 YEAR 2011 SES 1 EJEK 6 EN 05 5 EN 04 7 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 19 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 7 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 2...

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 YEAR 2013 Males 62 Females 26 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 28 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 25 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 27 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2013 American Indian...

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  13. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  14. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  15. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 Females 25 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 25 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 25 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 25 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native...

  16. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  17. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  18. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  19. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  20. Astron. Nachr. / AN 328, No. 3/4, 329 338 (2007) / DOI 10.1002/asna.200610739 Towards using modern data assimilation and weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brun, Allan Sacha

    2007-01-01

    solar wind and energetic plasma eruptions a direct impact on the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere modern data assimilation and weather forecasting methods in solar physics A.S. Brun DSM/DAPNIA/SAp, CEA words Sun: activity ­ Sun: magnetic fields ­ Sun: rotation ­ solar-terrestrial relation ­ methods

  1. Section D. Anisotropic rock physics and related studies D4-1 GEMS: the opportunity for stress-forecasting all damaging earthquakes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    less frequent). Currently there is no effective earthquake prediction programme and we may be fatally-forecasting all damaging earthquakes worldwide Stuart Crampin1,2 , Sergei Zatsepin3 , Chris W. A. Browitt2@jamstec.go.jp. 5 Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China. E

  2. Taking a Look at 4.57 Billion Year Old Space Objects

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Researchers at the Energy Department's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and NASA's Johnson Space Center are investigating objects some 4.57 billion years old in order to better understand how our solar system developed.

  3. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    -9.09% YEAR 2012 2013 SES 1 1 0.00% EN 05 1 1 0.00% EN 04 11 11 0.00% NN (Engineering) 8 8 0.00% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 17 14 -17.65% NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 2...

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Females 863 YEAR 2013 SES 102 EX 3 SL 1 EJEK 89 EN 05 41 EN 04 170 EN 03 18 NN (Engineering) 448 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 1249 NU (TechAdmin Support) 76 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 321...

  6. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  7. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2012 2013 SES 2 1 -50.00% EJEK 10 9 -10.00% EN 04 27 24 -11.11% NN (Engineering) 28 24 -14.29% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 29 -6.45% NU (TechAdmin Support) 4...

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2013 SES 2 2 0.00% EJEK 7 8 14.29% EN 04 11 11 0.00% EN 03 1 1 0.00% NN (Engineering) 23 24 4.35% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 35 32 -8.57% NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 2...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National268

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26825

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National268255

  14. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National2682559

  15. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26825595

  16. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National2682559589

  17. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26825595893

  18. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3

  19. 300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2009 Building Completion Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. J. Skwarek

    2010-01-27

    This report summarizes the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition activities of seven facilities in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site in fiscal year 2009. The D4 of these facilities included characterization; engineering; removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials; equipment removal; utility disconnection; deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure; and stabilization or removal of slabs and foundations. This report also summarizes the nine below-grade slabs/foundations removed in FY09 of buildings demolished in previous fiscal years.

  20. Guidelines for Siena College Department of Physics 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion and post-tenure review.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and promotion committee(s). 1. Second-year and Fourth-year review committees: These committees will consist specific feedback, the second and fourth year reviews ballot shall list three choices: Support Support-support 2. For second and fourth year reviews, the vote shall be reported in the departmental recommendation

  1. 300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2008 Building Completion Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. A. Westberg

    2009-01-15

    This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition (D4) of eighteen buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site that were demolished in Fiscal Year 2008. The D4 of these facilties included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation, as appropriate.

  2. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  3. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  4. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  5. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  6. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  7. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  8. I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and not treat them as an unusual occurrence in the next 20 years. In the long term with cap and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and the development of carbon capture and storage applied to new coal fired generating stations, gas prices will only that biofuels are made from food crops, the discussion is correct that fertilizer demands will drive gas prices

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  10. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  11. BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN PHYSICAL SCIENCES-BIOLOGY CONCENTRATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    degree standing. FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS FS 0102 Freshman Seminar 3 ENG Credits Per Term 17 Credits Per Academic Year 34 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERM Per Term 16 Credits Per Academic Year 32 THIRD YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS THIRD YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  13. J2.6 A SPATIAL DATA MINING APPROACH FOR VERIFICATION AND UNDERSTANDING OF ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gruenwald, Le

    FORECASTING Xuechao Yu* 1,2 and Ming Xue 2,3 1 NOAA/NWS/WDTB Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale is placed on meso- scale ensemble forecasting in recent years [e.g., the Storm and Mesoscale Ensemble complicated for mesoscale quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), since QPF is a discontinuous field. Em

  14. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  15. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  17. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  18. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  19. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  20. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  1. Advice on 4th Year Computer Science Projects for Examination in Trinity Term of 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oxford, University of

    to undertake a project in the fourth year. Mathematics and Computer Science candidates have the option to take be a whole unit or a half unit. Fourth year Computer Science projects are similar in style to third year The project amounts to about one third of the work in the fourth year of the course, and one third

  2. Relationships among magnitude representation, counting and memory in 4- to 7-year-old children: A developmental study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Soltesz, Fruzsina; Szucs, Denes; Szucs, Livia

    2010-02-18

    when the perceptual information was in con- flict with numerical information. Susceptibility to irrele- vant perceptual features weakened with age, and the congruency effect was mainly driven by 4-year-olds. This developmental trend is in agreement...

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  4. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  5. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  6. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  7. 2. Foreword by the Vice-Chancellor 4. Highlights of the year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burton, Geoffrey R.

    and a new Centre for the Arts, besides the refurbishment of many existing buildings. This is a three year

  8. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  9. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  10. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  11. 300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2010 Building Completion Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skwarek, B. J.

    2011-01-27

    This report summarizes the deactiviation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition activities of facilities in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site in fiscal year 2010.

  12. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  13. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  14. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  15. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  16. Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mosier, Richard Matthew

    2011-02-22

    -derived Products....26 1.6 Thesis Objectives and Hypothesis...........................................................................27 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY..................................................................................29 2.1 Radar............................................................................................42 2.4.4 Storm Cell Position Forecast............................................................................44 2.5 Lightning Correlation..............................................................................................45 2.6 CG...

  17. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  18. 300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2007 Building Completion Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. A. Westberg

    2009-01-15

    This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition (D4) of twenty buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site. The D4 of these facilties included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation, as appropriate.

  19. Arrow Lakes Reservoir Fertilization Experiment; Years 4 and 5, Technical Report 2002-2003.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schindler, E.

    2007-02-01

    This report presents the fourth and fifth year (2002 and 2003, respectively) of a five-year fertilization experiment on the Arrow Lakes Reservoir. The goal of the experiment was to increase kokanee populations impacted from hydroelectric development on the Arrow Lakes Reservoir. The impacts resulted in declining stocks of kokanee, a native land-locked sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), a key species of the ecosystem. Arrow Lakes Reservoir, located in southeastern British Columbia, has undergone experimental fertilization since 1999. It is modeled after the successful Kootenay Lake fertilization experiment. The amount of fertilizer added in 2002 and 2003 was similar to the previous three years. Phosphorus loading from fertilizer was 52.8 metric tons and nitrogen loading from fertilizer was 268 metric tons. As in previous years, fertilizer additions occurred between the end of April and the beginning of September. Surface temperatures were generally warmer in 2003 than in 2002 in the Arrow Lakes Reservoir from May to September. Local tributary flows to Arrow Lakes Reservoir in 2002 and 2003 were generally less than average, however not as low as had occurred in 2001. Water chemistry parameters in select rivers and streams were similar to previous years results, except for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations which were significantly less in 2001, 2002 and 2003. The reduced snow pack in 2001 and 2003 would explain the lower concentrations of DIN. The natural load of DIN to the Arrow system ranged from 7200 tonnes in 1997 to 4500 tonnes in 2003; these results coincide with the decrease in DIN measurements from water samples taken in the reservoir during this period. Water chemistry parameters in the reservoir were similar to previous years of study except for a few exceptions. Seasonal averages of total phosphorus ranged from 2.11 to 7.42 {micro}g/L from 1997 through 2003 in the entire reservoir which were indicative of oligo-mesotrophic conditions. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations have decreased in 2002 and 2003 compared to previous years. These results indicate that the surface waters in Arrow Lakes Reservoir were approaching nitrogen limitation. Results from the 2003 discrete profile series indicate nitrate concentrations decreased significantly below 25 {micro}g/L (which is the concentration where nitrate is considered limiting to phytoplankton) between June and July at stations in Upper Arrow and Lower Arrow. Nitrogen to phosphorus ratios (weight:weight) were also low during these months indicating that the surface waters were nitrogen deficient. These results indicated that the nitrogen to phosphorus blends of fertilizer added to the reservoir need to be fine tuned and closely monitored on a weekly basis in future years of nutrient addition. Phytoplankton results shifted during 2002 and 2003 compared to previous years. During 2002, there was a co-dominance of potentially 'inedible' diatoms (Fragilaria spp. and Diatoma) and 'greens' (Ulothrix). Large diatom populations occurred in 2003 and these results indicate it may be necessary to alter the frequency and amounts of weekly loads of nitrogen and phosphorus in future years to prevent the growth of inedible diatoms. Zooplankton density in 2002 and 2003, as in previous years, indicated higher densities in Lower Arrow than in Upper Arrow. Copepods and other Cladocera (mainly tiny specimens such as Bosmina sp.) had distinct peaks, higher than in previous years, while Daphnia was not present in higher numbers particularly in Upper Arrow. This density shift in favor to smaller cladocerans was mirrored in a weak biomass increase. In Upper Arrow, total zooplankton biomass decreased from 1999 to 2002, and in 2003 increased slightly, while in Lower Arrow the biomass decreased from 2000-2002. In Lower Arrow the majority of biomass was comprised of Daphnia throughout the study period except in 2002, while in Upper Arrow the total biomass was comprised of copepods from 2000-2003.

  20. Research Projects For prospective PhD and M.Sc. students, and as 4th year projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sidorov, Nikita

    Research Projects For prospective PhD and M.Sc. students, and as 4th year projects Joel energy (of the spark) required to generate propagating flames. Several projects are available to extend.daou@manchester.ac.uk http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jd/) Several projects are available related to the mathematical

  1. License Agreement UNBC Housing & Residence Life Rev 1-201503.19, Academic Year 2015/16 Page 1 of 4

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Northern British Columbia, University of

    License Agreement UNBC Housing & Residence Life Rev 1-201503.19, Academic Year 2015/16 Page 1 of 4 UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA HOUSING and RESIDENCE LIFE RESIDENT'S LICENSE AGREEMENT This License George Campus subject to the Student entering into this License Agreement and the availability of rooms

  2. Pre-4.0 billion year weathering on Mars constrained by RbSr geochronology on meteorite ALH84001

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Clark M.

    Pre-4.0 billion year weathering on Mars constrained by Rb­Sr geochronology on meteorite ALH84001 Accepted 24 October 2012 Editor: T. Elliott Available online 22 November 2012 Keywords: geochronology Sr crystallization age of this meteorite has been debated, where initial Sm­Nd geochronology by Nyquist et al. (1995

  3. High Cloud Properties from Three Years of MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection-4 Data over the Tropics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baum, Bryan A.

    High Cloud Properties from Three Years of MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection-4 Data over the Tropics) ABSTRACT This study surveys the optical and microphysical properties of high (ice) clouds over the Tropics on the gridded level-3 cloud products derived from the measurements acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging

  4. Area 1: Photonics ECE 3rd and 4th year Informa9on Session

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith #12;Interna9onal Year of Light hfp://www.light2015.org/Home.html #12;, amplifica/on, and detec/on/sensing of light) Modulators (Modula9on) Switching and Signal Processing Light Amplifica9on Detec9on

  5. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  6. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  7. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  8. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  9. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  10. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  11. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  12. 300 Area D4 Project 3rd Quarter Fiscal Year 2006 Building Completion Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. S. Smith

    2006-09-25

    This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition of five buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site. The D4 of these facilities included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation as appropriate.

  13. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  14. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  15. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol. 19, no. 6, pp.16 independent data banks,” Solar Energy, vol. 80, no. 4,data,” Final Report of International Energy Agency Solar

  16. 300 Area D4 Project 1st Quarter Fiscal Year 2006 Building Completion Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David S. Smith

    2006-04-20

    This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition of the MO-052, 3225, 334, 334A, and 334-TF Buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site. The D4 of these facilities included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation as appropriate.

  17. Union Carbides Last 20 Years in Oak Ridge … part 4

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking With WIPPfinalUnexpected Angular Dependence ofMeasures |part 1 part4

  18. Six-year optical monitoring of the BL Lacertae object 1ES 0806+52.4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Man, Zhongyi; Zhang, Xiaoyuan; Wu, Jianghua [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Zhou, Xu [Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 20A Datun Road, Beijing 100012 (China); Yuan, Qirong, E-mail: jhwu@bnu.edu.cn [Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046 (China)

    2014-12-01

    We present the results of the first systematic long-term multicolor optical monitoring of the BL Lacertae object 1ES 0806+52.4. The monitoring was performed in multiple passbands with a 60/90 cm Schmidt telescope from 2005 December to 2011 February. The overall brightness of this object decreased from 2005 December to 2008 December but was regained after that. A sharp outburst probably occurred around the end of our monitoring program. Overlapping the long-term trend are some short-term small-amplitude oscillations. No intranight variability was found in the object, which is in accordance with the historical observations before 2005. By investigating the color behavior, we found a strong bluer-when-brighter chromatism for the long-term variability of 1ES 0806+52.4. The total amplitudes at the c, i, and o bands are 1.18, 1.12, and 1.02 mag, respectively. The amplitudes tend to increase toward shorter wavelengths, which may be a major cause of the bluer-when-brighter chromatism. Such bluer-when-brighter chromatisms are also found in other blazars, such as S5 0716+714, OJ 287. The hard-X-ray data collected from the Swift/BAT archive was correlated with our optical data. No positive result was found, the reason for which may be that the hard-X-ray flux is a combination of the synchrotron and inverse Compton emission, but with different timescales and cadences under the leptonic synchrotron self-Compton model.

  19. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01

    the following:1. FAPRI3. AO S5. Univariate Time Series7. Composite 2. WASDE4. Futures Market6. Multivariate Time Series The characteristics of each of the aforementioned forecast techniques are explained within the appropriate chapter. Furthermore, it should...

  20. The Potential for Integrating GIS in Activity-Based Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McNally, Michael G.

    1997-01-01

    3" (ENTERTAINMENT) Figure 4. A GIS-based Microsimulation ofDestinations Figure 5. A GIS-based Microsimulation ofPotential for Integrating GIS in Activity Based Forecasting

  1. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    transport and  numerical weather modeling.   J.  Applied cross correlations.    Weather and Forecasting, 8:4, 401?of radiation for numerical weather prediction and climate 

  2. Q550 Sports Bursary Application 2014-15 Year: 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th / postgraduate (delete as applicable)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengun, Mehmet Haluk

    Q550 Sports Bursary Application 2014-15 Name: Year: 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th / postgraduate (delete to personally incur participating in University level sport during the academic year 2014-15. Details of expense

  3. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  4. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  5. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  6. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  7. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  8. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  9. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  10. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  11. 3.4 DEGREE CLASSIFICATION (Fourth Year Students only) All students who commenced their studies before September 2012 (and have not

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Glendinning, Paul

    74 3.4 DEGREE CLASSIFICATION (Fourth Year Students only) All students who commenced their studies to Fourth Year students in the School of Mathematics. Marking Scheme for Examined Course Units (Lecture of Mathematics uses Method B.) Students are not normally permitted to repeat the Fourth Year. Note

  12. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  13. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  14. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  15. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  16. Transition projects FY 1995 Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP)/Fiscal Year Work Plan (FYWP) WBS 1.3.1 and 7.1. Volume 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cartmell, D.B.

    1994-09-01

    This reference contains information about the deactivation of the Purex Process Plant located on the Hanford Reservation. This document consists of a tabular schedule of events covering the next three years.

  17. Cross-correlation of WMAP 3rd year and the SDSS DR4 galaxy survey: new evidence for Dark Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Cabre; E. Gaztanaga; M. Manera; P. Fosalba; F. Castander

    2006-07-25

    We cross-correlate the third-year WMAP data with galaxy samples extracted from the SDSS DR4 (SDSS4) covering 13% of the sky, increasing by a factor of 3.7 the volume sampled in previous analyses. The new measurements confirm a positive cross-correlation with higher significance (total signal-to-noise of about 4.7). The correlation as a function of angular scale is well fitted by the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect for LCDM flat FRW models with a cosmological constant. The combined analysis of different samples gives Omega_L=0.80-0.85$ (68% Confidence Level, CL) or $0.77-0.86$ (95% CL). We find similar best fit values for Omega_L for different galaxy samples with median redshifts of z ~0.3 and z ~0.5, indicating that the data scale with redshift as predicted by the LCDM cosmology (with equation of state parameter w=-1). This agreement is not trivial, but can not yet be used to break the degeneracy constraints in the w versus Omega_L plane using only the ISW data.

  18. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  19. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  20. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  1. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  2. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  3. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  4. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  5. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  6. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  7. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  9. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities: Fiscal year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    This report describes procurement procedures and opportunities for small businesses with the Department of Energy (DOE). It describes both prime and subcontracting opportunities of $100,000 and above which are being set aside for 8(a) and other small business concerns. The report contains sections on: SIC codes; procurement opportunities with headquarters offices; procurement opportunities with field offices; subcontracting opportunities with major contractors; 8(a) contracts expiring in FY 1998; other opportunities to do business with DOE; management and operating contractors--expiration dates; Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) staff directory; and small business survey. This document will be updated quarterly on the home page.

  10. Cross-correlation of WMAP 3rd year and the SDSS DR4 galaxy survey: new evidence for Dark Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cabre, A; Manera, M; Fosalba, P; Castander, F

    2006-01-01

    We cross-correlate the third-year WMAP data with galaxy samples extracted from the SDSS DR4 covering 13% of the sky, increasing by a factor of 3.7 the volume sampled in previous analyses. The new measurements confirm a positive cross-correlation with higher significance (total signal-to-noise of about 4.7). The correlation as a function of angular scale is well fitted by the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect for LCDM flat FRW models with a cosmological constant (w=-1). The combined analysis of different samples gives Omega_L=0.75-0.80 (68% Confidence Level, CL) or 0.70-0.82 (95% CL). We find that the best fit Omega_L decreases from 0.82 to 0.75 (95% CL) when we increase the median redshift of the galaxy sample from z~0.3 to z~0.5. The quick drop of the measured signal with z is too fast for the LCDM cosmology. The data can be better reconciled with a model with an effective dark energy equation of state w<-1.5. Such phantom cosmology reduces by up to ~20% the amplitude of the lower multipoles of the CMB ...

  11. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2 40 -4.76% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 37 35 -5.41% Females 5 5 0% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 2 2 0% EJEK 5 4 -20.00% EN 05 5 7 40.00% EN 04 6 6 0% EN 03 1 1 0% NN...

  12. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  13. Info Session for: All PHAS 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Year UG Students Provided by: UBC Department of Physics & Astronomy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plotkin, Steven S.

    Info Session for: All PHAS 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Year UG Students Provided by: UBC Department Possibilities 11:20 a.m. Salena Li, UG Coordinator 11:25 a.m. Dr. Janis McKenna, 2nd year advisor UG Research Dunning, Yingyu Yao 12:00 p.m. 2nd Year Student Session -- Hennings 201 Honours, Majors, Minors Programs

  14. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  15. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  16. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  17. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  18. Fact #871: May 4, 2015 Most Manufacturers Have Positive CAFE Credit Balances at the End of Model Year 2013 – Dataset

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Excel file and dataset for Most Manufacturers Have Positive CAFE Credit Balances at the End of Model Year 2013

  19. Estimation and Inference under Weak Identification and Persistence: An Application to Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Reaction Function 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Jui-Chung

    2014-08-05

    function for 1987:3{2007:4 are not accurate sufficiently to rule out the possibility of indeterminacy. However, for the model with forecast horizon one, the possibility of indeterminacy may be ruled out....

  20. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  1. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  2. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  3. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  9. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  10. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  11. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  12. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  13. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  14. Economic transition FY 1995 Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP)/Fiscal Year Work Plan (FYWP) WBS 7.4.9

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwenk, R.M.

    1994-09-01

    The mission of the WHC Economic Transition Center is to support Hanford`s cleanup mission and to leverage the assets of that mission to promote diversification and long-term sustainability of the regional economy and workforce. Conducting an economic transition program is imperative at sites such as Hanford, which are faced with transition from a defense production mission to a massive cleanup mission, followed by rampdown and site closure. At issue are the human and physical resources of the Site and the final disposition of those resources. Without an effective economic transition program, the federal government will have invested billions of dollars to achieve environmental regulatory compliance without generating any greater return on investment. With an effective economic transition program, the potential exists to redeploy the highly skilled, well-trained, and educated workforce developed and utilized during the Site`s cleanup mission and find productive uses for land, facilities, and equipment. The Economic Transition Center has been divided into the following business areas: outsourcing; spinoffs; technology acquisition; technology transfer; conversion; and cross-cutting partnerships. A work package has been developed for each of these business areas in this Fiscal Year Work Plan.

  15. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  16. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  17. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    79 67 -15.19% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 44 34 -22.73% Females 35 33 -5.71% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 6 4 -33.33% EJEK 1 1 0% EN 05 9 8 -11.11% EN 04 6 5 -16.67% NN...

  18. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  19. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  20. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  1. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  2. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  3. Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hu, Yongyun

    simulations with IABP/POLES observations Jiping Liu,1 Zhanhai Zhang,2 Yongyun Hu,3 Liqi Chen,4 Yongjiu Dai,5 Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979­ 1999. The reanalyses, including the National Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although

  4. MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage the control of a wind power plant, possibly consisting of many individual wind turbines. The goal. INTRODUCTION Today, wind power is the most important renewable energy source. For the years to come, many

  5. A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McLeod, Dennis

    A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake J. B. Rundle In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake

  6. Making Forecasts for Chaotic Physical Processes Christopher M. Danforth* and James A. Yorke

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    Making Forecasts for Chaotic Physical Processes Christopher M. Danforth* and James A. Yorke of years into the future [1], as well as the evolution of galactic clusters [2]. Plasma phys- icists use is followed. Given this limitation, the modeler's goal is that some linear combination of ensemble members

  7. Fact #871: May 4, 2015 Most Manufacturers Have Positive CAFE Credit Balances at the End of Model Year 2013

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    At the end of the 2013 model year (MY), Toyota, which neither bought nor sold credits between 2010 and 2013, had by far the highest balance of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) credits at more...

  8. Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Bonneville Power Administration celebrates big windy milestone and researchers SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory study the surfaces of 2,500 year old Greek pottery -- all in this week's Geek-Up.

  9. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  10. Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paoli, Christophe; Muselli, Marc; Nivet, Marie-Laure [University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE, Corte (France); Voyant, Cyril [University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE, Corte (France); Hospital of Castelluccio, Radiotherapy Unit, Ajaccio (France)

    2010-12-15

    In this paper, we present an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the renewable energy domain. We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which has been the most used of ANNs architectures both in the renewable energy domain and in the time series forecasting. We have used a MLP and an ad hoc time series pre-processing to develop a methodology for the daily prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. First results are promising with nRMSE {proportional_to} 21% and RMSE {proportional_to} 3.59 MJ/m{sup 2}. The optimized MLP presents predictions similar to or even better than conventional and reference methods such as ARIMA techniques, Bayesian inference, Markov chains and k-Nearest-Neighbors. Moreover we found that the data pre-processing approach proposed can reduce significantly forecasting errors of about 6% compared to conventional prediction methods such as Markov chains or Bayesian inference. The simulator proposed has been obtained using 19 years of available data from the meteorological station of Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France, 41 55'N, 8 44'E, 4 m above mean sea level). The predicted whole methodology has been validated on a 1.175 kWc mono-Si PV power grid. Six prediction methods (ANN, clear sky model, combination..) allow to predict the best daily DC PV power production at horizon d + 1. The cumulated DC PV energy on a 6-months period shows a great agreement between simulated and measured data (R{sup 2} > 0.99 and nRMSE < 2%). (author)

  11. Strategic Sourcing Dashboard Fiscal Year 2015 Program Summary: Our FY 15 savings was $9.5 million, with our cumulative program savings up to $38.4 million.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Strategic Sourcing Dashboard Fiscal Year 2015 Program Summary: Our FY 15 savings was $9.5 million, with our cumulative program savings up to $38.4 million. Significant Accomplishments/Activities/Risks for this Reporting Period (FY 15): We added new Strategic Sourcing savings of $1.2M annually with 19 different

  12. Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL] Review, Vol. 25, Nos. 3 and 4, 1992 [The First Fifty Years

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Krause, C.(ed.)

    1992-00-00

    In observation of the 50th anniversary of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, this special double issue of the Review contains a history of the Laboratory, complete with photographs, drawings, and short accompanying articles. Table of contents include: Wartime Laboratory; High-flux Years; Accelerating Projects; Olympian Feats; Balancing Act; Responding to Social Needs; Energy Technologies; Diversity and Sharing; Global Outreach; Epilogue

  13. Page 1 of 4 | Georgia State University | Office of Disbursements | Revision 05/14/2015 FISCAL YEAR-END CHECKLIST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frantz, Kyle J.

    is adding this handy guide to assist with close-out activities. Prepaid Transactions: Prepaid expenditures, prepaid. The expenditure is paid by June 30, but is charged against next year's budget. An example of prepaid travel might be a travel engagement that begins on June 25, 2015 and ends on July 10, 2015. Note

  14. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  15. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  16. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  17. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  18. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  19. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  20. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  1. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  2. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB...

  3. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  5. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil, 2. Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Brazil 3.Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR), Brazil, 4. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), Brazil, 5. European Centre for Medium-Range and Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 6. United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), UK, 7. University

  6. Bet and Energy -From Load Forecasting to Demand Response in a Web of Things

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Beigl, Michael

    Bet and Energy - From Load Forecasting to Demand Response in a Web of Things Yong Ding TECO (DSM) [7, 19]. Within DSM, mainly two principal activities i.e. load shifting (demand response programs) and load reduction (energy efficiency and conser- vation programs) can be realized [4]. 1.1 Demand Response

  7. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  8. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  9. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  10. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  11. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  12. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  13. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  14. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  15. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  16. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  17. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  18. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  19. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  20. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  1. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  2. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  3. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  4. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  5. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  6. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  7. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  8. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  9. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  10. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  11. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  12. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  13. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  14. HST AND OPTICAL DATA REVEAL WHITE DWARF COOLING, SPIN, AND PERIODICITIES IN GW LIBRAE 3-4 YEARS AFTER OUTBURST

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Szkody, Paula; Mukadam, Anjum S. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Gaensicke, Boris T., E-mail: szkody@astro.washington.edu, E-mail: mukadam@astro.washington.edu, E-mail: boris.gaensicke@warwick.ac.uk [Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); and others

    2012-07-10

    Since the large amplitude 2007 outburst which heated its accreting, pulsating white dwarf, the dwarf nova system GW Librae has been cooling to its quiescent temperature. Our Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectra combined with ground-based optical coverage during the third and fourth year after outburst show that the fluxes and temperatures are still higher than quiescence (T = 19,700 K and 17,300 K versus 16,000 K pre-outburst for a log g = 8.7 and d = 100 pc). The K{sub wd} of 7.6 {+-} 0.8 km s{sup -1} determined from the C I {lambda}1463 absorption line, as well as the gravitational redshift implies a white dwarf mass of 0.79 {+-} 0.08 M{sub Sun }. The widths of the UV lines imply a white dwarf rotation velocity v sin i of 40 km s{sup -1} and a spin period of 209 s (for an inclination of 11 deg and a white dwarf radius of 7 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 8} cm). Light curves produced from the UV spectra in both years show a prominent multiplet near 290 s, with higher amplitude in the UV compared to the optical, and increased amplitude in 2011 versus 2010. As the presence of this set of periods is intermittent in the optical on weekly timescales, it is unclear how this relates to the non-radial pulsations evident during quiescence.

  15. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  16. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  17. PROVISIONAL TERM & VACATION -2014 First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth and Fifth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jarrett, Thomas H.

    January 2014 BSc AUDIOLOGY AND BSc SPEECH-LANGUAGE PATHOLOGY 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 17 Feb 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 17 Feb ­ 04 Apr 13 Jan ­ 04 Apr 14 Apr ­ 13 Jun 21 Jul ­ 29 Aug 08 Sep 2014 13 January 2014 BSc PHYSIOTHERAPY 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 17 Feb ­ 04 Apr 13 Jan ­ 04

  18. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  19. Spent nuclear fuel project multi-year work plan WBS {number_sign}1.4.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, J.L.

    1997-03-01

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project Multi-Year Work Plan (MYWP) is a controlled living document that contains the current SNF Project Technical, Schedule and Cost Baselines. These baselines reflect the current Project execution strategies and are controlled via the change control process. Other changes to the MYWP document will be controlled using the document control process. These changes will be processed as they are approved to keep the MYWP a living document. The MYWP will be maintained continuously as the project baseline through the life of the project and not revised annually. The MYWP is the one document which summarizes and links these three baselines in one place. Supporting documentation for each baseline referred to herein may be impacted by changes to the MYWP, and must also be revised through change control to maintain consistency.

  20. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  1. Maximum Likelihood Signal Extraction Method Applied to 3.4 years of CoGeNT Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. E. Aalseth; P. S. Barbeau; J. Diaz Leon; J. E. Fast; T. W. Hossbach; A. Knecht; M. S. Kos; M. G. Marino; H. S. Miley; M. L. Miller; J. L. Orrell

    2015-02-05

    CoGeNT has taken data for over 3 years, with 1136 live days of data accumulated as of April 23, 2013. We report on the results of a maximum likelihood analysis to extract any possible dark matter signal present in the collected data. The maximum likelihood signal extraction uses 2-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) to characterize the anticipated variations in dark matter interaction rates for given observable nuclear recoil energies during differing periods of the Earth's annual orbit around the Sun. Cosmogenic and primordial radioactivity backgrounds are characterized by their energy signatures and in some cases decay half-lives. A third parameterizing variable -- pulse rise-time -- is added to the likelihood analysis to characterize slow rising pulses described in prior analyses. The contribution to each event category is analyzed for various dark matter signal hypotheses including a dark matter standard halo model and a case with free oscillation parameters (i.e., amplitude, period, and phase). The best-fit dark matter signal is in close proximity to previously reported results. We find that the significance of the extracted dark matter signal remains well below evidentiary at 1.7 $\\sigma$.

  2. Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC year 1 quarter 4 progress report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lottes, S.A.; Kulak, R.F.; Bojanowski, C. (Energy Systems)

    2011-12-09

    The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) focus areas at Argonne's Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) initiated a project to support and compliment the experimental programs at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) with high performance computing based analysis capabilities in August 2010. The project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at TFHRC for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. The analysis methods employ well-benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water effects on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to assess them for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, CFD analysis of the operation of the wind tunnel in the TFCHR wind engineering laboratory, vehicle stability under high wind loading, and the use of electromagnetic shock absorbers to improve vehicle stability under high wind conditions. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of July through September 2011.

  3. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  4. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  5. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  6. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  7. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  8. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  9. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  10. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  11. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  13. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  15. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  16. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  17. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  18. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  19. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  2. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  3. NCGIA Annual Report, Year 4

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (UC Santa Barbara, SUNY at Buffalo, University of Maine)

    1993-01-01

    the NCGIA in a trip to the West Valley DemonstrationProject, West Valley, NY, to continue exploration of how UB’can cooperate with West Valley in analyzing waste treatment

  4. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  6. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  7. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  8. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  9. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  12. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  13. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  14. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  15. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  16. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  17. 4

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-InspiredAtmosphericdevicesPPONeApril351 Substation4.0 - PERSONNEL QUALIFICATIONS

  18. 4

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-InspiredAtmosphericdevicesPPONeApril351 Substation4.0 - PERSONNEL

  19. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  20. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  1. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  2. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  3. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  4. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  5. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  6. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  7. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  8. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  9. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  10. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  11. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  13. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  14. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  15. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  16. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  17. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  18. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  19. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  20. Prostate-Specific Antigen at 4 to 5 Years After Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy Is a Strong Predictor of Disease-Free Survival

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lo, Andrea C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Morris, W. James, E-mail: JMorris@bccancer.bc.ca [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Lapointe, Vincent [Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Hamm, Jeremy [Department of Population Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Keyes, Mira; Pickles, Tom; McKenzie, Michael [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Spadinger, Ingrid [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To determine (1) the prognostic utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at 45 to 60 months (48mPSA) after low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB); (2) the predictors of 48mPSA; and (3) the prognostic utility of directional trends between PSA levels at 24, 36, and 48 months after LDR-PB. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2008, 2223 patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer received LDR-PB monotherapy. A cohort of 1434 of these patients was identified with a documented 48mPSA and no evidence of disease relapse prior to the 48mPSA. In addition, a subset of this cohort (n=585) was identified with ?72 months of follow-up and documented PSA values at both 24 and 36 months after implantation. Results: Median follow-up time was 76 months. Eight-year Kaplan-Meier disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 100% vs 73.4% for patients with 48mPSA ?0.2 vs those with >0.2 ng/mL; 99.1% versus 53.8% for a 48mPSA threshold of ?0.4 versus >0.4 ng/mL, respectively; and 97.3% versus 0% for a threshold of ?1.0 versus >1.0 ng/mL, respectively. On multivariate analysis, the only factor predictive of DFS was 48mPSA (P<.0001). On subset analysis (n=585), 29 patients had a PSA rise (defined as >0.2 ng/mL) between 24 and 36 months, 24 patients had a rise between 36 and 48 months, and 11 patients had rises over both intervals. Failure rates in these patients were 52%, 79%, and 100%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, initial PSA, androgen deprivation therapy, and dose to 90% of the prostate significantly correlated with 48mPSA but together accounted for only ?5% of its total variance. Conclusions: The 48mPSA after LDR-PB is highly predictive of long-term DFS. Patients with 48mPSA ?0.4 ng/mL had a <1% risk of disease relapse at 8 years, whereas all patients with 48mPSA >1.0 ng/mL relapsed. Consecutive PSA rises of >0.2 ng/mL from 24 to 36 months and from 36 to 48 months were also highly predictive of subsequent failure.

  1. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  2. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  3. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting

  4. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  5. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  7. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  8. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  9. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  10. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  11. Research Brief 2014/01 Experimental Forecasts of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Po, Lai-Man

    is similar to what has been observed in El Nino years (e.g. Chan 2000; Huang and Chan 2013). This is consistent with most global model results that suggest this year being likely an El Nino year (e.g. Fig. 4

  12. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  14. web page: http://w3.pppl.gov/~ zakharov On Real Time Forecasts (RTF) of Tokamak Discharges1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    structure (Data Base) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.3 Communication control of code to "yesterday" weather analysis) or predictive codes ("next month" weather predictions), RTF targets a forecast of the plasma regime, e.g., in 0.1 e (like the "next hour" weather predictions). Three components, crucial

  15. web page: http://w3.pppl.gov/~ zakharov On Real Time Forecasts (RTF) of Tokamak Discharges 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    structure (Data Base) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.3 Communication control of code to "yesterday" weather analysis) or predictive codes ("next month" weather predictions), RTF targets a forecast of the plasma regime, e.g., in 0.1 # e (like the "next hour" weather predictions). Three components, crucial

  16. Nuclear Engineering and Design 236 (2006) 16411647 Basic factors to forecast maintenance cost and failure processes for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Popova, Elmira

    2006-01-01

    Nuclear Engineering and Design 236 (2006) 1641­1647 Basic factors to forecast maintenance cost and failure processes for nuclear power plants Elmira Popovaa,, Wei Yub, Ernie Keec, Alice Sunc, Drew Project Nuclear Operating Company, P.O. Box 289, Wadsworth, TX 77483, USA Received 4 July 2005; received

  17. Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves, cities and forecasting By Payal Marathe * October 1, 2015 Tweet EmailPrint The 1995 Chicago heat wave was a...

  18. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  19. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  20. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  1. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  2. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  3. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  4. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  5. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  6. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  7. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  8. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  9. 4.5 years multi-wavelength observations of Mrk 421 during the ARGO-YBJ and Fermi common operation time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bartoli, B; Bi, X J; Cao, Z; Catalanotti, S; Chen, S Z; Chen, T L; Cui, S W; Dai, B Z; Damone, A; Danzengluobu,; De Mitri, I; Piazzoli, B D Ettorre; Di Girolamo, T; Di Sciascio, G; Feng, C F; Feng, Zhaoyang; Feng, Zhenyong; Gou, Q B; Guo, Y Q; He, H H; Hu, Haibing; Hu, Hongbo; Iacovacci, M; Iuppa, R; Jia, H Y; Labaciren,; Li, H J; Liu, C; Liu, J; Liu, M Y; Lu, H; Ma, L L; Ma, X H; Mancarella, G; Mari, S M; Marsella, G; Mastroianni, S; Montini, P; Ning, C C; Perrone, L; Pistilli, P; Salvini, P; Santonico, R; Shen, P R; Sheng, X D; Shi, F; Surdo, A; Tan, Y H; Vallania, P; Vernetto, S; Vigorito, C; Wang, H; Wu, C Y; Wu, H R; Xue, L; Yang, Q Y; Yang, X C; Yao, Z G; Yuan, A F; Zha, M; Zhang, H M; Zhang, L; Zhang, X Y; Zhang, Y; Zhao, J; Zhaxiciren,; Zhaxisangzhu,; Zhou, X X; Zhu, F R; Zhu, Q Q

    2015-01-01

    We report on the extensive multi-wavelength observations of the blazar Markarian 421 (Mrk 421) covering radio to gamma-rays, during the 4.5 year period of ARGO-YBJ and Fermi common operation time, from August 2008 to February 2013. In particular, thanks to the ARGO-YBJ and Fermi data, the whole energy range from 100 MeV to 10 TeV is covered without any gap. In the observation period, Mrk 421 showed both low and high activity states at all wavebands. The correlations among flux variations in different wavebands were analyzed. Seven large flares, including five X-ray flares and two GeV gamma-ray flares with variable durations (3-58 days), and one X-ray outburst phase were identified and used to investigate the variation of the spectral energy distribution with respect to a relative quiescent phase. During the outburst phase and the seven flaring episodes, the peak energy in X-rays is observed to increase from sub-keV to few keV. The TeV gamma-ray flux increases up to 0.9-7.2 times the flux of the Crab Nebula. T...

  10. The aim of this work is to apply a probabilistic method to quantify the likelihood to observe the Banking Case contrary to a deterministic approach. The Banking Case is the forecast of oil or gas volumes that could be recovered from a formation in the upc

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Psaltis, Demetri

    to observe the Banking Case contrary to a deterministic approach. The Banking Case is the forecast of oil or gas volumes that could be recovered from a formation in the upcoming years. It iis estimated to ensure positive NPV. Certainty of Oil Production Forecasts Methodology A hyperbolic curve fit

  11. Model independent foreground power spectrum estimation using WMAP 5-year data Tuhin Ghosh,1,* Rajib Saha,1,2,3,4,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Souradeep, Tarun

    Saha,1,2,3,4, Pankaj Jain,4, and Tarun Souradeep1,x 1 IUCAA, Post Bag 4, Ganeshkhind, Pune-411007 of CMB power spectrum estimation was proposed by Saha et al. 2006. This methodology demonstrates

  12. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  13. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  14. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  15. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  16. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  17. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  18. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  19. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  20. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  1. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  2. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  3. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  4. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  5. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  6. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  7. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  8. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  9. LNG to the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davenport, S.T.

    1984-04-01

    By 2000, about 190 MM metric-tpy of LNG will be moving in world trade, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer By the year 2000, approximately 190 million metric tons per year of LNG will be moving in worldwide trade. Production of LNG will be spread throughout most of the world, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer. LNG will be delivered only to the heavily industrialized areas of North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The success of any LNG project will be dependent on its individual economics, market needs, financial planning, and governmental permit processes. We hope industry will be able to put together the LNG projects required to meet the quanitities of production forecast here for the year 2000.

  10. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  11. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  12. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  13. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  14. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  15. Busted Butte Unsaturated Zone Transport Test: Fiscal Year 1998 Status Report Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Program Deliverable SPU85M4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bussod, G.Y.; Turin, H.J.; Lowry, W.E.

    1999-11-01

    This report describes the status of the Busted Butte Unsaturated Zone Transport Test (UZTT) and documents the progress of construction activities and site and laboratory characterization activities undertaken in fiscal year 1998. Also presented are predictive flow-and-transport simulations for Test Phases 1 and 2 of testing and the preliminary results and status of these test phases. Future anticipated results obtained from unsaturated-zone (UZ) transport testing in the Calico Hills Formation at Busted Butte are also discussed in view of their importance to performance assessment (PA) needs to build confidence in and reduce the uncertainty of site-scale flow-and-transport models and their abstractions for performance for license application. The principal objectives of the test are to address uncertainties associated with flow and transport in the UZ site-process models for Yucca Mountain, as identified by the PA working group in February 1997. These include but are not restricted to: (1) The effect of heterogeneities on flow and transport in unsaturated and partially saturated conditions in the Calico Hills Formation. In particular, the test aims to address issues relevant to fracture-matrix interactions and permeability contrast boundaries; (2) The migration behavior of colloids in fractured and unfractured Calico Hills rocks; (3) The validation through field testing of laboratory sorption experiments in unsaturated Calico Hills rocks; (4) The evaluation of the 3-D site-scale flow-and-transport process model (i.e., equivalent-continuum/dual-permeability/discrete-fracture-fault representations of flow and transport) used in the PA abstractions for license application; and (5) The effect of scaling from lab scale to field scale and site scale.

  16. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  17. Dragon Year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hacker, Randi

    2012-01-11

    Broadcast Transcript: Can you believe it? It's New Year again. It seems like only yesterday we were celebrating the advent of the year of the Rabbit and now, here it is, the year of the Dragon. January 22nd is New Year's Eve according to the Lunar...

  18. Solid waste 30-year volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Armacost, L.L.; DeForest, T.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Williams, N.C.

    1994-06-01

    A 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site is described in this report. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste that will require treatment, storage, and disposal at Hanford`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during the 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The data used to complete this document were collected from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently, or are planning to, ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site. An analysis of the data suggests that over 300,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed at Hanford`s SWOC over the next 30 years. An extensive effort was made this year to collect this information. The 1993 solid waste forecast was used as a starting point, which identified approximately 100,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste to be sent to the SWOC. After analyzing the forecast waste volume, it was determined that additional waste was expected from the tank waste remediation system (TWRS), onsite decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities, and onsite remedial action (RA) activities. Data presented in this report establish a starting point for solid waste management planning. It is recognized that forecast estimates will vary (typically increasing) as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined, but the information presented still provides useful insight into Hanford`s future solid waste management requirements.

  19. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  20. First Year SAMPLE FOUR YEAR SCHEDULE FOR POLITICS MAJOR FALL SPRING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Galles, David

    FALL SPRING 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Third Year FALL SPRING 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Fourth Year FALL SPRING 1 1 2 2 3 3First Year SAMPLE FOUR YEAR SCHEDULE FOR POLITICS MAJOR FALL SPRING 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Second Year

  1. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  2. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  3. NOAA's Proposed Climate Service Background updated 7/13/11 NOAA's shortterm weather forecasts of conditions out to about twoweeks are critical to saving lives and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts of conditions out to about twoweeks are critical to saving lives and property. Similarly, NOAA to saving lives and property. For example: o firefighters in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona used industry estimates it saved $300 million per year in construction costs alone by using temperature trends

  4. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  5. The International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and the Coastal Hazards Symposium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Breivik, Øyvind; Babanin, Alexander; Horsburgh, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.

  6. Experimental Forecasts of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia (Updated version with Jun-Dec forecasts)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Po, Lai-Man

    southeastward as compared to the climatology. Such a difference is similar to what has been observed in El Nino that suggest this year being likely an El Nino year (e.g. Fig. 5). The numbers of TCs predicted and actually associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972. Chan, J. C. L. and M. Xu, 2009

  7. Archive of Previous Years' General Catalogs http://registrar.ucsc.edu/catalog/archive/index.html[8/13/2014 4:16:48 PM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Santa Cruz, University of

    Archive of Previous Years' General Catalogs http://registrar.ucsc.edu/catalog/archive/index.html[8 with the archived 2012-13 General Catalog, the catalog will be provided in html and pdf formats as they appeared) The UCSC General Catalog 2013-14 (html) 2012­13 The UCSC General Catalog 2012-13 (pdf) 2011­12 The UCSC

  8. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  9. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  11. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  12. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  13. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  14. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  15. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  16. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  17. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  18. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  19. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  20. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  1. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  2. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  3. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  4. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  5. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  6. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  7. Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st Year Sum. __________ (year)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barrash, Warren

    . HRS. 2nd Year Fall __________ (year) 2nd Year Spr. _________ (year) 2nd Year Sum. _________ (yearName Major Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st Year Sum. __________ (year) SUBJECT COURSE # CR. HRS. SUBJECT COURSE # CR. HRS. SUBJECT COURSE # CR

  8. Low-dimensional Models in Spatio-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting Borhan M. Sanandaji, Akin Tascikaraoglu, , , Kameshwar Poolla, and Pravin Varaiya

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sanandaji, Borhan M.

    Tascikaraoglu, , , Kameshwar Poolla, and Pravin Varaiya Abstract-- Integrating wind power into the grid to achieve the power balance needed for its integration into the grid [3], [4]. The use of ancillary services of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that incorporates

  9. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  10. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  11. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    for forecasting the Spanish electricity market prices. On the other hand, ARIMA, dynamic regression and transfer been used to forecast the Spanish market prices [7], [9], Californian market prices [9], Leipzig power have been used for forecasting the Spanish and Californian market prices [11] and the PJM market prices

  12. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  13. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed, defining the spatial­temporal extent of episodes of dangerous air quality, forecasting urban and areaAtmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1373­1382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast

  14. A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting Song Cai to provide predictive distributions of daily maximum surface level ozone concentrations. Five forecast models forecasts for extreme events, namely poor air quality events defined as having ozone concentration 82 ppb

  15. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  16. Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data Based on comparisons with infrared (GOES) and microwave (AMSE-R) satellite data, our coastal ocean forecast model set circulation model and satellite data helps to improve forecasting of ocean conditions (esp. currents and SST

  17. Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud May 11, 2014 Abstract This paper presents a survey of electricity price forecasting for the Nordic region, and performs that time series models more appropriate for forecasting electricity prices, compared to machine learning

  18. Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedl, Herwig

    Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Vika Koban, Milos Pantos of electricity price under normal conditions with the spike time series caused by extreme conditions in order to obtain a better forecast of the spot price. Short term electricity price forecasting has become

  19. Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts Ronald H. Brown1 that allows long-term natural gas demand signals to be used effect- ively to generate high quality short-term natural gas demand forecasting models. Short data sets in natural gas forecasting inadequately represent

  20. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer