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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans. Introduction [2] Because water vapor is the most significant green- house gas and it exhibits a strong

Allan, Richard P.

4

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update - April 2013 Anil Puri & Mira Farka Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton U.S. Economic Outlook to the forecast and a are-up in the region can easily derail the global economic recovery. Nonetheless

de Lijser, Peter

6

most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

7

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRINGFALL SPRING YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

B FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRINGFALL SPRING YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 ECHM 100 (CHBE 100) 2). There is a pre- requisite of M-273Q (MATH 224). CHMY-373 (CHEM 324) could be taken Spring of year 3. Also, CHMY Math Placement ExamB M-172-Q (MATH 182) 4 cr Chemical Engineering Prerequisite Flowchart Catalog: 2010

Lawrence, Rick L.

9

AN APPLICATION OF URBANSIM TO THE AUSTIN, TEXAS REGION: INTEGRATED-MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2030  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN APPLICATION OF URBANSIM TO THE AUSTIN, TEXAS REGION: INTEGRATED-MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR, as well as energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This work describes the modeling of year-2030 policies significantly impact the region's future land use patterns, traffic conditions, greenhouse gas

Kockelman, Kara M.

10

FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRINGFALL SPRING YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

B FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRINGFALL SPRING YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 CHBE 100 2 cr CHMY-141 324) could be taken Spring of year 3. Also, CHMY-371 (CHEM 323) may be substituted for CHMY-373 (CHEM Engineering Prerequisite Flowchart Catalog: 2008-2010 updated 2009 rev. 06/29/10, rwl ­ new course numbers E

Lawrence, Rick L.

11

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Children's Hospital of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 July General Pediatric Children's Hospital of Michigan High Risk Obstetrics Hutzel Women's Hospital Biochemical Genetics Lab/Metabolic Clinic Harper Hospital/ Children's Hospital of Michigan Reproductive Genetics Hutzel Women's Hospital August General Pediatric Children

Finley Jr., Russell L.

12

A Penalized 4-D Var data assimilation method for reducing forecast M. J. Hossen  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

state and assimilated indirect observational data such as satellite radiance without trans- forming themA Penalized 4-D Var data assimilation method for reducing forecast error M. J. Hossen Department dimensional variational (4D-Var) Data Assimilation (DA) method is used to find the optimal initial conditions

Navon, Michael

13

The Curious Case of the El Niño That Never Happened: A perspective from 40 years of progress in climate research and forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Capsule: The first ever El Niño forecast 40 years ago was, in retrospect, a failure. We turn back the clock to 1975, the forecast target year, to reconstruct what happened and why. The mystery is solved, but the quest for deeper understanding of El Niño ...

Michael J. McPhaden; Axel Timmermann; Matthew J. Widlansky; Magdalena A.; Balmaseda; Timothy N. Stockdale

14

FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL SPRING FALL Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 CORE W to meet BioE Engineering Elective Reqt. (c) ­ course used to meet ChE Techical Elective Reqt Revised 11

Lawrence, Rick L.

15

Oil prices — Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For oil related investment appraisal, an accurate description of the evolving uncertainty in the oil price is essential. For example, when using real option theory to value an investment, a density function for the future price of oil is central to the option valuation. The literature on oil pricing offers two views. The arbitrage pricing theory literature for oil suggests geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion models. Empirically driven literature suggests ARMA–GARCH models. In addition to reflecting the volatility of the market, the density function of future prices should also incorporate the uncertainty due to price jumps, a common occurrence in the oil market. In this study, the accuracy of density forecasts for up to a year ahead is the major criterion for a comparison of a range of models of oil price behaviour, both those proposed in the literature and following from data analysis. The Kullbach Leibler information criterion is used to measure the accuracy of density forecasts. Using two crude oil price series, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) representing the US market, we demonstrate that accurate density forecasts are achievable for up to nearly two years ahead using a mixture of two Gaussians innovation processes with GARCH and no mean reversion.

Nigel Meade

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Year 1 Year 2 Anne 3 Anne 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7Year 3 Year 4 INGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIENINGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIEN  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Biology / Chemistry / Computer Science / Economics / Energy / Mechanics and Environmental Sciences / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / Physics / Science, Technology & Society / Software Systems / Innovation Duration: 2 years - Possibility to be directly admitted to Year 2 Master of ScienceMaster of Science #12

Cengarle, María Victoria

18

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

19

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

22

Model error in weather forecasting D. Orrell 1,2 , L. Smith 1,3 , J. Barkmeijer 4 , and T. Palmer 4  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

numerical weather prediction mod­ els. A simple law is derived to relate model error to likely shadowingModel error in weather forecasting D. Orrell 1,2 , L. Smith 1,3 , J. Barkmeijer 4 , and T. Palmer 4 in the model, and inac­ curate initial conditions (Bjerknes, 1911). Because weather models are thought

Smith, Leonard A

23

Forecast of Advanced Technology for Coal Power Generation Towards the Year of 2050 in CO2 Reduction Model of Japan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In the fossil fuel, coal is enough to get easily because it has supply and price stability brought about its ubiquitously. Coal is used for power generation as the major fuel in the world. However it is true that control of global warming should be applied to coal power generations. Therefore, many people expect CO2 reduction by technical innovation such as efficiency improvement, Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS). In case of coal power plant are considered for improving efficiency. Some of them have already put into commercial operation but others are still under R&D stage. Especially, the technical development prospect of the power plant is very important for planning the energy strategy in the resource-importing country. Japan Coal Energy Center (JCOAL) constructed a program to forecast the share of advanced coal fired plants/natural gas power plants towards the year of 2050. Then, we simulated the future prediction about 2 cases (the Japanese scenario and the world scenario). The fuel price and the existence of CCS were considered in the forecast of the technical development of the thermal power generation. Especially in the Japanese scenario, we considered the CO2 reduction target which is 80% reduction in 1990. In the world scenario, coal price had almost no influence on the share of coal fired plant. However, when the gas price increased 1.5% or more, the share of coal fired plant increased. In that case, CO2 emissions increased because coal-fired plant increased. Compared with both cases, the amount of CO2 in 2050 without CCS case was 50% higher than that of with CCS case. In Japanese scenario, achievement of 80% CO2 reduction target is impossible without CCS. If CCS is introduced into all the new establishment coal fired plant, CO2 reduction target can be attained. In the Japanese scenario, the gas price more expensive than a coal price so that the amount of the coal fired plant does not decline. Since the reduction of the amount of CO2 will be needed in all over the world, introductory promotion and technical development of CCS are very important not only Japan but also all over the world.

Takashi Nakamura; Keiji Makino; Kunihiko Shibata; Michiaki Harada

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Technology data characterizing space conditioning in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the US, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of space conditioning end uses in terms of specific technologies is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and heating and cooling plants is very large. Second, the properties of the building envelope are an integral part of a building`s HVAC energy consumption characteristics. Third, the characteristics of commercial buildings vary greatly by building type. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. This report describes the process by which the authors collected space-conditioning technology data and then mapped it into the COMMEND 4.0 input format. The data are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Sezgen, O.; Franconi, E.M.; Koomey, J.G.; Greenberg, S.E.; Afzal, A.; Shown, L.

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

27

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

28

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

29

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

30

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

AB IN STUDIO ART Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Total 16 THIRD YEAR First semester Area Hours Second semester Area Hours ARST 3000/4000 M 3 ARST 3000 FOURTH YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 3000/4000 M 3 Submit ARST 3000AB IN STUDIO ART Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 First semester Area Hours Must Second

Arnold, Jonathan

32

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

33

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

34

FORECASTING THE RESPONSE OF COASTAL WETLANDS TO DECLINING3 WATER LEVELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES IN THE GREAT4  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

i 1 2 FORECASTING THE RESPONSE OF COASTAL WETLANDS TO DECLINING3 WATER LEVELS AND ENVIRONMENTALMaster University23 (Biology) Hamilton, Ontario24 TITLE: Forecasting the response of coastal wetlands to declining plants in Lake Ontario coastal36 wetlands while taking into account other factors such as urbanization

McMaster University

35

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN RADIOLOGICAL SCIENCE (Suggested 4 Year Plan)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Procedures II Clinical Experience Medical Terminology Radiation Protection II Elementary Radiation ProtectionBACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN RADIOLOGICAL SCIENCE (Suggested 4 Year Plan) Please note that this is a potential plan for completing your degree within four years. The order of classes does not necessarily need

Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

36

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

37

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

38

BFA IN ART EDUCATION Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Area Hours ARST 2000 level M 3 Check ARST 3000 Concentration M 3 ARST 2/3000 Concentration M 3 First semester Area Hours GACE Second semester Area Hours ARST 3000 level M 3 1 & 2 ARED 5460 M 9 ARSTBFA IN ART EDUCATION Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 First semester Area Hours Must

Arnold, Jonathan

39

AB IN ART HISTORY Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARHI 3000 level M 3 Transition ARHI 3000 level M 3 ARHI 3000 level M* 3 To full ARHI 3000 level M 3 Area VI Elective VI 3 Art Foreign Lang. 1002 IV 4 Foreign Lang YEAR First semester Area Hours Second semester Area Hours ARHI 3000 level M 3 ARHI 4000 level M 3 ARST

Arnold, Jonathan

40

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

42

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

1 1 YEAR 2011 Males 18 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 2 EJ/EK 2 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 35 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 1 American Indian Female 2 African American Male 3 African American Female 9 Asian Male 0 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 2 Hispanic Female 6 White Male 12 White Female 6 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Information Management & Chief Information Officer, NA-IM As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 18 43.9% 23 56.1% Gender Males Females 4.9% 4.9% 85.4% 4.9% Pay Plan SES EJ/EK NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2.4% 4.9% 7.3% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 14.6% 29.3% 14.6% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male

44

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

45

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

46

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

47

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

48

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

49

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

40 40 YEAR 2011 Males 68 Females 72 YEAR 2011 SES 5 EJ/EK 1 NN (Engineering) 16 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 115 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 1 American Indian Female 2 African American Male 3 African American Female 7 Asian Male 4 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 25 Hispanic Female 26 White Male 35 White Female 37 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Acquistion & Project Management, NA-APM As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 68 48.6% 72 51.4% Gender Males Females 3.6% 0.7% 11.4% 82.1% 2.1% Pay Plan SES EJ/EK NN (Engineering) NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) NU (Tech/Admin Support) 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 5.0% 2.9% 0.0% 17.9% 18.6% 25.0% 26.4% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male

50

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

4 4 YEAR 2011 Males 21 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 3 EJ/EK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 31 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 5 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American Indian Female 0 African American Male 1 African American Female 2 Asian Male 1 Asian Female 1 Hispanic Male 6 Hispanic Female 10 White Male 13 White Female 10 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Office of General Counsel, NA-GC As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 21 47.7% 23 52.3% Gender Males Females 6.8% 2.3% 2.3% 6.8% 70.5% 11.4% Pay Plan SES EJ/EK EN 03 NN (Engineering) NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) NU (Tech/Admin Support) 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 4.5% 2.3% 2.3% 13.6% 22.7% 29.5% 22.7% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male

51

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

52

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

54

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4, November 2002 Gary A Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver #12;On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 4 2 by 5 years

Denver, University of

55

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

6 6 YEAR 2011 Males 7 Females 9 YEAR 2011 SES 1 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 9 GS 15 2 GS 13 2 GS 12 1 GS 11 1 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American Indian Female 0 African American Male 1 African American Female 3 Asian Male 1 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 1 Hispanic Female 0 White Male 4 White Female 6 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator of External Affairs, NA-EA As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 7 43.8% 9 56.3% Gender Males Females 6.3% 56.3% 12.5% 12.5% 6.3% 6.3% Pay Plan SES NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) GS 15 GS 13 GS 12 GS 11 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 18.8% 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 25.0% 37.5% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male Hispanic Female White Male White Female FY11 Workforce Diversity

56

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Case 4-2011 — A 4-Year-Old Boy with Back Pain and Hypercalcemia  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...cytogenetic analysis. Morphologic examination of the aspirate smear revealed a predominant population of small-to-medium-size cells that had finely dispersed nuclear chromatin, small prominent nuclei, and scant basophilic cytoplasm, features that are consistent with blasts (Figure 4A). Review of a peripheral... A 4-year-old boy was admitted to this hospital because of a 1-week history of back pain, with sleepiness, constipation, and refusal to walk. The serum calcium level was elevated. Initial radiographs and MRI studies were interpreted as normal. Diagnostic tests were performed.

El Saleeby C.M.Grottkau B.E.Friedmann A.M.Westra S.J.Sohani A.R.

2011-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

58

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

59

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

96 YEAR 2013 Males 69 Females 27 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EJEK 9 EN 04 27 NN (Engineering) 26 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 30 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2013 American Indian Alaska Native Male...

60

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.

Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

63

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

American Female 4 Asian Male 22 Asian Female 4 Hispanic Male 5 Hispanic Female 4 White Male 30 White Female 19 Workforce Diversity Livermore Site Office As of March 24, 2012...

65

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

66

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

2540 YEAR 2013 Males 1677 Females 863 YEAR 2013 SES 102 EX 3 SL 1 EJEK 89 EN 05 41 EN 04 170 EN 03 18 NN (Engineering) 448 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 1249 NU (TechAdmin Support) 76 NV...

67

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

68

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

70

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

71

Facility stabilization project, fiscal year 1998 -- Multi-year workplan (MYWP) for WBS 1.4  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The primary Facility Stabilization mission is to provide minimum safe surveillance and maintenance of facilities and deactivate facilities on the Hanford Site, to reduce risks to workers, the public and environment, transition the facilities to a low cost, long term surveillance and maintenance state, and to provide safe and secure storage of special nuclear materials, nuclear materials, and nuclear fuel. Facility Stabilization will protect the health and safety of the public and workers, protect the environment and provide beneficial use of the facilities and other resources. Work will be in accordance with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Tri-Party Agreement), local, national, international and other agreements, and in compliance with all applicable Federal, state, and local laws. The stakeholders will be active participants in the decision processes including establishing priorities, and in developing a consistent set of rules, regulations, and laws. The work will be leveraged with a view of providing positive, lasting economic impact in the region. Effectiveness, efficiency, and discipline in all mission activities will enable Hanford Site to achieve its mission in a continuous and substantive manner. As the mission for Facility Stabilization has shifted from production to support of environmental restoration, each facility is making a transition to support the Site mission. The mission goals include the following: (1) Achieve deactivation of facilities for transfer to EM-40, using Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) plant deactivation as a model for future facility deactivation; (2) Manage nuclear materials in a safe and secure condition and where appropriate, in accordance with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards rules; (3) Treat nuclear materials as necessary, and store onsite in long-term interim safe storage awaiting a final disposition decision by US Department of Energy; (4) Implement nuclear materials disposition directives. In the near term these are anticipated to mostly involve transferring uranium to other locations for beneficial use. Work will be in accordance with the Tri-Party Agreement, and other agreements and in compliance with all applicable Federal, state and local laws. The transition to deactivation will be accomplished through a phased approach, while maintaining the facilities in a safe and compliant configuration. In addition, Facility Stabilization will continue to maintain safe long-term storage facilities for Special Nuclear Material (SNM), Nuclear Material (NM), and Nuclear Fuel (NF). The FSP deactivation strategy aligns with the deactivate facilities mission outlined in Hanford Site SE documentation. Inherent to the FSP strategies are specific Hanford Strategic Plan success indicators such as: reduction of risks to workers, the public and environment; increasing the amount of resources recovered for other uses; reduction/elimination of inventory and materials; and reduction/elimination of costly mortgages.

Floberg, W.C.

1997-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

72

Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53 ?g m?3 for O3, from ?4.70 to ?0.63 ?g m?3 for NO2, from ?4.00 to ?0.13 ?g m?3 for PM2.5 and from ?7.70 to ?0.25 ?g m?3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead.

L.S. Neal; P. Agnew; S. Moseley; C. Ordóñez; N.H. Savage; M. Tilbee

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Virginia 4-H Horse Project Measurement Card Name of Horse _________________________ Year Foaled _________  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Virginia 4-H Horse Project Measurement Card Name of Horse _________________________ Year Foaled is officially measured at ________ hands. Shod: With Pad Heel Flat Plate Unshod: Heel: ____________ inches Date: _______________________ Signed: ____________________________________________________ USEF Steward 4-H Official Measurer*18 U

Liskiewicz, Maciej

74

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

American Female 39 Asian Male 4 Asian Female 5 Hispanic Male 20 Hispanic Female 50 White Male 57 White Female 84 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for...

75

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

American Female 43 Asian Male 3 Asian Female 4 Hispanic Male 21 Hispanic Female 47 White Male 61 White Female 92 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for...

76

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

77

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

78

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

3 2 -33.33% Hispanic Male (H,M) 5 5 0.00% Hispanic Female (H,F) 4 4 0.00% White Male (W,M) 29 26 -10.34% White Female (W,F) 19 16 -15.79% Change DIVERSITY...

79

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 0 Hispanic Female (H F) 0 White Male (W M) 4 White Female (W F) 5 DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Associate...

80

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 1 Hispanic Male (H M) 4 Hispanic Female (H F) 7 White Male (W M) 13 White Female (W F) 11 DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Office of General...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

African American Female 1 Asian Male 2 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 4 Hispanic Female 3 White Male 29 White Female 3 Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Safety & Health...

82

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Pacific Islander Female (AAPI, F) 2 Hispanic Male (H, M) 5 Hispanic Female (H, F) 4 White Male (W, M) 25 White Female (W, F) 17 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER...

83

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

African American Female 4 Asian Male 2 Asian Female 3 Hispanic Male 7 Hispanic Female 5 White Male 52 White Female 20 Workforce Diversity Nevada Site Office As of March 24, 2012...

84

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

African American Female 4 Asian Male 0 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 1 Hispanic Female 0 White Male 28 White Female 6 Workforce Diversity Kansas City Site Office As of March 24,...

85

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 4 Hispanic Male (H M) 3 Hispanic Female (H F) 6 White Male (W M) 26 White Female (W F) 18 TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Associate Administrator for...

86

Taking a Look at 4.57 Billion Year Old Space Objects | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Taking a Look at 4.57 Billion Year Old Space Objects Taking a Look at 4.57 Billion Year Old Space Objects Taking a Look at 4.57 Billion Year Old Space Objects March 23, 2011 - 3:29pm Addthis Compositional X-ray image of the rim and margin of a ~4.6 billion year old calcium aluminum refractory inclusion (CAI)
from the Allende carbonaceous chondrite. | Courtesy of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Compositional X-ray image of the rim and margin of a ~4.6 billion year old calcium aluminum refractory inclusion (CAI)
from the Allende carbonaceous chondrite. | Courtesy of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Charles Rousseaux Charles Rousseaux Senior Writer, Office of Science Researchers at the Energy Department's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and NASA's Johnson Space Center are investigating tiny

87

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Chapter 4 The use of satellite surface wind data to improve weather analysis and forecasting at the NASA Data Assimilation Office  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

One important application of satellite surface wind observations is to improve the accuracy of weather analyses and forecasts. The first satellite to measure surface wind over the ocean was SeaSat in 1978. The initial impact of satellite surface wind data on weather analysis and forecasting was very small, but extensive research has been conducted since SeaSat to improve data accuracy and utilization of these data in atmospheric models. Satellite surface wind data are now used to detect intense storms over the ocean as well as to improve the overall representation of the wind field in numerical weather prediction models. Satellite wind data contribute to improved warnings for ships at sea and to more accurate global weather forecasts. Experiments with the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system indicate that the impact of satellite wind data measured by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Scatterometer was approximately twice as large as the impact of Special Sensor Microwave Imager or European Remote-sensing Satellite wind data. Locations of cyclones over the ocean were up to 500 km more accurate, and the useful forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics was extended by 24 hours.

R. Atlas; R.N. Hoffman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Hispanic Male (H,M) 217 207 -4.61% Hispanic Female (H,F) 196 182 -7.14% White Male (W,M) 1318 1271 -3.57% White Female (W,F) 511 463 -9.39% Total includes...

90

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

2 2 0.00% Hispanic Male (H,M) 76 75 -1.32% Hispanic Female (H,F) 22 21 -4.55% White Male (W,M) 389 400 2.83% White Female (W,F) 21 19 -9.52% Change DIVERSITY...

91

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Years  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and Technology in and Technology in the National Interest 60 Years of Excellence Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory FY 2012 Annual Report About the Cover: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) engineers Chris Spadaccini (left) and Eric Duoss are shown experimenting with direct ink-writing to create micro- to macroscale structures with extreme precision. The Laboratory is advancing this process and other additive manufacturing technologies to develop new materials with extraordinary properties for use in a wide range of national-security and other applications. About the Laboratory: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was founded in 1952 to enhance the security of the United States by advancing nuclear weapons science and technology. With a talented and dedicated workforce and

94

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

95

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

97

800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Methane (CH4)  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Methane (CH4) » Ice Cores Methane (CH4) » Ice Cores 800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Methane (CH4) This page introduces ice-core records of methane (CH4) extending back 800,000 years at Dome C, Antarctica and over 400,000 years at the Vostok site. Links are also provided to shorter records from other Antarctic locations. The 2000-year record from Law Dome, Antarctica, has been merged with modern records to create a long-term record to the present. These records are maintained by the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and have graciously been made freely available for access and distribution. The original investigators made the effort to obtain the data and assure their quality. To assure proper credit is given, please follow the citation instructions

98

Modern Records of Atmospheric Methane (CH4) and a 2000-year Ice-core Record  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

(CH4) » Ice Cores (CH4) » Ice Cores Modern Records of Atmospheric Methane (CH4) and a 2000-year Ice-core Record from Law Dome, Antarctica Introduction This page provides an introduction and links to records of atmospheric methane (CH4) over the last 2000 years, emphasizing large data bases each representing currently active stations. Records in recent decades (time period depending on location) have been obtained from samples of ambient-air at remote locations, which represent global atmospheric conditions rather than influences of local sources. The longer (2000-year) record is from the Law Dome ice core in Antarctica. The ice-core record has been merged with modern annual data from Cape Grim, Tasmania to provide a 2000-year record ending with the most recent data. A spline function has

99

E-Print Network 3.0 - aged 0-4 years Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

or if the patient has had an exacerbation requiring... hospitalization. Consider referral if a patient requires step 3 care (step 2 care for children 0-4 years of age... in...

100

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis Suggested 4 Year Curriculum Art X: Expanded Forms  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

3000-level Art X M 3 ARST 2810 Hypermedia M* 3 Area ARST 3000-level Art X M 3 ARST 2000-level ElectiveBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis Suggested 4 Year Curriculum Art X: Expanded Forms revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 2800 Art & Tech VI 3 Pass ARST

Arnold, Jonathan

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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101

4 division of engineering & applied science 5ENGenious ISSUE 11 2014 Celebrating 20 Years  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

4 division of engineering & applied science 5ENGenious ISSUE 11 2014 Celebrating 20 Years: Control supported fundamental advances in science and engineering at Caltech, which can have transforma- tional-term; they require a 50-year view and need to be approached with creativity and a transformative perspective. We

102

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Jewelry/Metalwork Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

requirement 1 Hour Major Studio 51 Hours Art History 9 Hours Total 121 Hours First semester Area Hours MustBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Jewelry/Metalwork Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 2600 Intro Jewelry VI 3 Pass

Arnold, Jonathan

103

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Ceramics Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Studio 51 Hours Art History 9 Hours Total 121 Hours First semester Area Hours Must Second semester AreaBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Ceramics Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 2500 Intro Ceramics VI 3 Pass ARST 3500

Arnold, Jonathan

104

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Graphic Design Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Major Studio 51 Hours Art History 9 Hours Total 121 Hours First semester Area Hours Must Second semesterBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Graphic Design Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARGD 2010 Graphics Survey VI 3 Pass ARGD

Arnold, Jonathan

105

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Fabric Design Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Major Studio 51 Hours Art History 9 Hours Total 121 Hours First semester Area Hours Must Second semesterBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Fabric Design Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 2700 Fabrics I VI 3 Pass ARST 2800

Arnold, Jonathan

106

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Sculpture Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Major Studio 51 Hours Art History 9 Hours Total 121 Hours First semester Area Hours Must Second semesterBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Sculpture Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 2400 Sculpture I VI 3 Pass ARST 3400

Arnold, Jonathan

107

BFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Drawing Suggested 4 Year Curriculum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Studio 51 Hours Art History 9 Hours Total 121 Hours First semester Area Hours Must Second semester AreaBFA IN STUDIO ART Area of Emphasis: Drawing Suggested 4 Year Curriculum revised 09/11 SECOND YEAR First semester Area Hours Must Second semester Area Hours ARST 2010 Intermediate Draw. VI 3 Pass ARST

Arnold, Jonathan

108

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

109

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

110

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

111

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

112

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

113

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

114

300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2009 Building Completion Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition activities of seven facilities in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site in fiscal year 2009. The D4 of these facilities included characterization; engineering; removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials; equipment removal; utility disconnection; deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure; and stabilization or removal of slabs and foundations. This report also summarizes the nine below-grade slabs/foundations removed in FY09 of buildings demolished in previous fiscal years.

B. J. Skwarek

2010-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

115

I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and not treat them as an unusual occurrence in the next 20 years. In the long term with cap and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and the development of carbon capture and storage applied to new coal fired generating stations, gas prices will only go up. Gas from the Rockies will move east as quickly as transport is available. To the extent

116

300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2008 Building Completion Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition (D4) of eighteen buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site that were demolished in Fiscal Year 2008. The D4 of these facilties included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation, as appropriate.

R. A. Westberg

2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

117

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE BUSINESS, COMPUTER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION (Suggested 4 Year Plan)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Science with Lab 4 Total Credits Per Term 16 Total Credits Per Term 16 Total Credits Per Academic Year 32 GE: Arts & Letters 3 PEDC 1 Total Credits Per Term 17 Total Credits Per Term 16 Total Credits Per: History 3 GE: Cultures (Global) or Philosophical Inquiry 3 GE: Arts & Letters 3 GE: History, Cultures

Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

119

Standard 4-Year Course Plan for Computer Science & Engineering under Core 2009 Fall Winter Spring  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Standard 4-Year Course Plan for Computer Science & Engineering under Core 2009 Fall Winter Spring Engineering Elective Computer Engineering Elective Computer Engineering Elective Fall Winter Spring University Programming COEN 12 ­ Data Structures Freshman ENGR 1 ­ Introduction to Engineering (1 unit) Fall Winter

Holliday, JoAnne

120

Onshore wind max capacity 50.4% - what wind farm, what year? | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Onshore wind max capacity 50.4% - what wind farm, what year? Onshore wind max capacity 50.4% - what wind farm, what year? Home How can I find more specific information about wind capacity? I can get the max/min/media stuff from the bar graphs. Is there any way to see individual wind farm capacity per year or get examples of performance? I'm helping run a tech site and some specific information would be helpful in dealing with skeptical individuals. Is there any more detailed information on capacity other than the graph summary statistics? (I do not know my way around this site, but I'm willing to learn.) Submitted by Bob Wallace on 15 June, 2013 - 00:23 1 answer Points: 0 Hi Bob- Thank you for posting your question. It seems that your question developed after viewing/using the Transparent Cost Database, however, I

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Natural gas is the primary source for electricity production in Turkey. However, Turkey does not have indigenous resources and imports more than 98.0% of the natural gas it consumes. In 2011, more than 20.0% of Turkey's annual trade deficit was due to imported natural gas, estimated at US$ 20.0 billion. Turkish government has very ambitious targets for the country's energy sector in the next decade according to the Vision 2023 agenda. Previously, we have estimated that Turkey's annual electricity demand would be 530,000 GWh at the year 2023. Considering current energy market dynamics it is almost evident that a substantial amount of this demand would be supplied from natural gas. However, meticulous analysis of the Vision 2023 goals clearly showed that the information about the natural gas sector is scarce. Most importantly there is no demand forecast for natural gas in the Vision 2023 agenda. Therefore, in this study the aim was to generate accurate forecasts for Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030. For this purpose, two semi-empirical models based on econometrics, gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita, and demographics, population change, were developed. The logistic equation, which can be used for long term natural gas demand forecasting, and the linear equation, which can be used for medium term demand forecasting, fitted to the timeline series almost seamlessly. In addition, these two models provided reasonable fits according to the mean absolute percentage error, MAPE %, criteria. Turkey's natural gas demand at the year 2030 was calculated as 76.8 billion m3 using the linear model and 83.8 billion m3 based on the logistic model. Consequently, found to be in better agreement with the official Turkish petroleum pipeline corporation (BOTAS) forecast, 76.4 billion m3, than results published in the literature.

Mehmet Melikoglu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

123

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

124

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

125

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

126

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Conclusions on 8 years operation of the LEP 4.5K refrigeration system at CERN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

After 11 years of operation the Large Electron/Positron collider (LEP) was stopped in November 2000. Since 1993 a cryogenic system has been used to supply up to 72 superconducting (SC) cavity modules using four large liquid-helium refrigerators at 4.5 K. We review eight years of operation of one of the world’s largest helium cryogenic systems its evolution and cooling capacity availability correlated to the LEP increasing energy program. Failure statistics availability recovery time after breakdowns and reliability are analyzed and the most relevant problems encountered during the operation and their cure exposed. The operational organization is also briefly described.

N. Bangert; S. Claudet; Ph. Gayet; M. Sanmarti

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

130

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

131

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

135

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

136

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

138

Comparison of Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce and AVITAS market forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasts of future world demand for commercial aircraft are published fairly regularly by Airbus and Boeing. Other players in the aviation business, Rolls Royce and AVITAS, have also published forecasts in the past year. This article analyses and compares the methods used and assumptions made by the several forecasters. It concludes that there are wide areas of similarity in the approaches used and highlights the most significant area of divergence.

Ralph Anker

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

140

Changes in Health Care Spending and Quality 4 Years into Global Payment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...did not involve risk contracts. The single-payer system in Vermont, passed in 2011, will not be operational until 2017. In sensitivity analyses, we tested other Massachusetts and nationwide controls. Data and Variables. For spending analyses, the dependent variable was claims payments, which reflected... In the first 4 years of the Alternative Quality Contract used by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts, lower spending growth and greater quality improvements were observed for AQC enrollees than for enrollees in employer-sponsored plans in eight other states.

Song Z.; Rose S.; Safran D.G.

2014-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

142

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

143

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

144

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

146

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

147

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

149

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

152

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

4 + 1: Five Year Path to the BS in Environmental Design + Master of Regional Planning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Semester Credits EnvirDes 591B Sustainable Cities 3 EnvirDes 544 History of Landscape Architecture II 3 Education #2 (EnvirDes 140, AT) 4 General Education #3 (BS) 4 General Education #4 (SB) 4 Total credits for semester 15 Spring Semester Credits EnvirDes 205 Dynamics of Human Habitation 4 General Education #5 (PS) 4

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

154

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

155

A Long Term Load Forecasting of an Indian Grid for Power System Planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A time-series load modelling and load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy techniques were presented...7]. In this method, energy data of several past years is used to ... . ANN structure of ANFIS can capture the power ...

R. Behera; B. B. Pati; B. P. Panigrahi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Wind speed measurements from one year from meteorological towers and wind turbines at heights between 20 and 250 m for various European sites are analyzed and are compared with operational short-term forecasts of the global ECMWF model. The ...

Susanne Drechsel; Georg J. Mayr; Jakob W. Messner; Reto Stauffer

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Using a Business Process Model as a Central Organizing Construct for an Undergraduate Weather Forecasting Course  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For the last five years, the author has employed a business process model as a central organizing construct for the senior-level Forecasting Techniques course at Embry- Riddle Aeronautical University's Daytona Beach, Florida, campus. The process model ...

John M. Lanicci

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2010 Building Completion Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes the deactiviation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition activities of facilities in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site in fiscal year 2010.

Skwarek, B. J.

2011-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

162

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

164

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

165

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

167

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

168

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

169

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

170

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

171

Fact #765: February 4, 2013 EPA's Top 10 Conventionally-Fueled Vehicles for Model Year 2013  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

For the 2013 model year, the Toyota Prius and smaller Prius c took the top spot with a combined average of 50 mpg. All vehicles making this list are hybrid vehicles, and six of the ten cars making...

172

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

174

300 Area D4 Project Fiscal Year 2007 Building Completion Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition (D4) of twenty buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site. The D4 of these facilties included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation, as appropriate.

R. A. Westberg

2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

175

Seasonal and ENSO variability in global ocean phytoplankton chlorophyll derived from 4 years of SeaWiFS measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of a possible 184 modes, which explain 67% of the total temporal variability associated with the global meanSeasonal and ENSO variability in global ocean phytoplankton chlorophyll derived from 4 years of Sea and other sources of phytoplankton variability on global scales, which is an important component

Yoder, James S.

176

High Cloud Properties from Three Years of MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection-4 Data over the Tropics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

High Cloud Properties from Three Years of MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection-4 Data over the Tropics) ABSTRACT This study surveys the optical and microphysical properties of high (ice) clouds over the Tropics on the gridded level-3 cloud products derived from the measurements acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging

Baum, Bryan A.

177

IUPUI Supplement to the Indiana University Academic Handbook Approved May 4, 2010; Updated Yearly and Archived on July 1, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

does not duplicate the information already printed in the IU Academic Handbook. For complete1 IUPUI Supplement to the Indiana University Academic Handbook Approved May 4, 2010; Updated Yearly and Archived on July 1, 2013 A GUIDE FOR IUPUI FACULTY IUPUI Supplement to the IU Academic Handbook Disclaimer

Zhou, Yaoqi

178

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

179

Feeding and Caring for a Two-Year-Old 4-H Futurity Horse  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. *Adapted from Henneke et al. (1983). Along the neck Along the withers Crease down back Tailhead Inner buttocks Flank Behind the shoulder Ribs * Adapted from Henneke et al. (1983) 1 Backbone; 2 The point of the hip; 3... product. Administer Dose 3 at 2?4 weeks before weaning Tetanus toxoid Annual Annual Booster at time of penetrating injury or surgery if last dose not administered within 6 months West Nile virus Annual, semiannu- al, or more often (every 4 months...

Antilley, Teri J.; Sigler, Dennis

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

180

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

300 Area D4 Project 1st Quarter Fiscal Year 2006 Building Completion Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents the deactivation, decontamination, decommissioning, and demolition of the MO-052, 3225, 334, 334A, and 334-TF Buildings in the 300 Area of the Hanford Site. The D4 of these facilities included characterization, engineering, removal of hazardous and radiologically contaminated materials, equipment removal, utility disconnection, deactivation, decontamination, demolition of the structure, and stabilization or removal of the remaining slab and foundation as appropriate.

David S. Smith

2006-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

185

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

186

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

187

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

188

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

189

Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 4–5 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, which produced ...

Dustan M. Wheatley; Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

191

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

192

Data:572eb4a7-39fb-45e6-98fd-7544a0fea433 | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

2eb4a7-39fb-45e6-98fd-7544a0fea433 2eb4a7-39fb-45e6-98fd-7544a0fea433 No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic Information 2. Demand 3. Energy << Previous 1 2 3 Next >> Basic Information Utility name: PUD No 2 of Grant County Effective date: 2012/01/01 End date if known: Rate name: RATE SCHEDULE NO. 99 LOAD FORECAST ADJUSTMENT Sector: Description: APPLICABILITY: All customers billed on rate schedules 14, 15, 16, and 85 are subject to the requirements and charges described in this rate schedule. EFFECTIVE: Customer's Annual Load Forecast is due October 1, 2010. Monitoring of the forecast accuracy will begin January 1, 2011. Charges resulting from forecast errors will begin for billings covering energy usage on January 1, 2012. PROCESS: By October 1 each year (beginning October 1, 2010), customers must provide an Annual Load Forecast for the upcoming calendar year (January through December). The Annual Load Forecast will provide how much energy by month, on average, the customer expects to utilize over the upcoming year. Throughout the year the customer's actual energy usage will be monitored. At the end of the year, if the customer's Annual Forecast Error is more than the Annual Threshold then a Load Forecast Adjustment is calculated and the adjustment will be billed to the customer. Up to 45 days prior to the beginning of a month, the customer may submit a Revised Load Forecast to update the District on the amount of energy by month, on average, the customer expects to utilize over the remaining months of the year. If the customer's Monthly Forecast Error is less than the Monthly Threshold, the Maximum Adjustment Rate will be reduced by $1 for each month it does not exceed the Monthly Threshold, for a maximum reduction of $12. If a customer obtains load subject to a Load Forecast Adjustment, the customer also takes responsibility for the obligations of the previous customer created by this policy. See Exhibit 1 for specific calculations and methodology.

193

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

194

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

195

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

196

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

197

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

198

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

200

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

202

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

203

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Fuel Cell Technologies Program Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan - Section 4.0 Systems Analysis  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Systems Analysis Systems Analysis Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan Page 4 - 1 4.0 Systems Analysis The Fuel Cell Technologies Program (FCT Program) conducts a coordinated, comprehensive effort in modeling and analysis to clarify where hydrogen and fuel cells can be most effective from an economic, environmental, and energy security standpoint, as well as to guide RD&D priorities and set program goals. These activities support the FCT Program's decision- making process by evaluating technologies and pathways and determining technology gaps, risks, and benefits. The Systems Analysis sub-program works at all levels of the program, including technology analysis for specific sub-programs, policy and infrastructure analysis, and high-level implementation and

205

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

2 40 -4.76% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 37 35 -5.41% Females 5 5 0% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 2 2 0% EJEK 5 4 -20.00% EN 05 5 7 40.00% EN 04 6 6 0% EN 03 1 1 0% NN...

206

Development of short-term forecast quality for new offshore wind farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

As the rapid wind power build-out continues, a large number of new wind farms will come online but forecasters and forecasting algorithms have little experience with them. This is a problem for statistical short term forecasts, which must be trained on a long record of historical power production – exactly what is missing for a new farm. Focus of the study was to analyse development of the offshore wind power forecast (WPF) quality from beginning of operation up to one year of operational experience. This paper represents a case study using data of the first German offshore wind farm "alpha ventus" and first German commercial offshore wind farm "Baltic1". The work was carried out with measured data from meteorological measurement mast FINO1, measured power from wind farms and numerical weather prediction (NWP) from the German Weather Service (DWD). This study facilitates to decide the length of needed time series and selection of forecast method to get a reliable WPF on a weekly time axis. Weekly development of WPF quality for day-ahead WPF via different models is presented. The models are physical model; physical model extended with a statistical correction (MOS) and artificial neural network (ANN) as a pure statistical model. Selforganizing map (SOM) is investigated for a better understanding of uncertainties of forecast error.

M Kurt; B Lange

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIAÂ’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

208

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

210

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

211

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

212

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract ­ Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years

Sandborn, Peter

214

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

218

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

219

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

220

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

222

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

223

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

Hirst, E.

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Rig activity; 1991 is now the worst year on record  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper reports that U.S. rotary oil well drilling rig activity reached year-end levels above 1,100 rigs and averaged over 1,000 in 1990, the first increase since 1984. In 1991, however, operating rigs dropped once again, this time to an all time recorded low and once again, most forecasters erred on the high side. Rotary rigs running in 1991 averaged 862.8, a 14.4% drop below the 1990 activity level of 1007.8 rigs. The rig count, began at 1,068 in January, but fell steadily for the remainder of the year. A brief upturn at mid-year failed to hold up and the year-end increases in drilling we had come to expect since 1986 never materialized.

Not Available

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

5 79 -7.06% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 59 57 -3.39% Females 26 22 -15.38% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 0 -100% EJEK 4 3 -25.00% EN 05 3 2 -33.33% EN 04 22 22 0% EN 03...

231

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

91 81 -10.99% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 67 56 -16.42% Females 24 25 4.17% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 2 100% EJEK 9 8 -11.11% EN 04 25 22 -12.00% NN (Engineering) 24...

232

Info Session for: All PHAS 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Year UG Students Provided by: UBC Department of Physics & Astronomy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Info Session for: All PHAS 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Year UG Students Provided by: UBC Department of Physics & Astronomy Held at: Hennings 201 Date: Tuesday, September 3th, 2013 Time: 11:00 a.m. to 14:30 p Dunning, Yingyu Yao 12:00 p.m. 2nd Year Student Session -- Hennings 201 Honours, Majors, Minors Programs

Plotkin, Steven S.

233

Political Science Sample 4-5 Year Study Plan for Doctoral Program Current catalog for student with B.A., major field International Relations with minor fields  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Political Science Sample 4-5 Year Study Plan for Doctoral Program Current catalog for student with B.A., major field International Relations with minor fields Comparative Politics and Political Politics PSC 710r Proseminar in American Politics Year One: Semester 2 PSC 702 Advanced Quantitative

Ahmad, Sajjad

234

On Bayesian forecasting of procurement delays: a case study: Research Articles  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the engineering and contracting sector, the on-time availability of materials is a crucial element of any project. In recent years, there has been increasing competition in the supply of such components, as a result of market globalization. This has ... Keywords: bidding process, delivery times' forecasts, dynamic linear models, procurement process, project management

Jesus Palomo; Fabrizio Ruggeri; David Rios Insua; Enrico Cagno; Franco Caron; Mauro Mancini

2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...

Bray, Rebecca Anne

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

236

Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal Center for Applied for this purpose. This paper proposes using the alternative technique of abductive networks, which offers with statistical and empirical models. Using hourly temperature and load data for five years, 24 dedicated models

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

237

MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage iterations. We demonstrate our method in simulations with various wind scenarios and prices for energy. INTRODUCTION Today, wind power is the most important renewable energy source. For the years to come, many

238

2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J, The University at Albany, 251 Fuller Rd, Albany, NY 12203, USA 3 University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics for a half year period (summer 2007) at three different climates in the USA. ECMWF shows the best results

Perez, Richard R.

239

Fiscal Year 1992 Annual Operating Plan for the Geopressured-Geothermal Research Program ($4.3 Million Budget)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This plan describes the Geopressured-Geothermal Research Program. A Geopressured well in Texas (Pleasant Bayou) will undergo a slow test and a pressure buildup test. A geopressured well in Louisiana (Gladys McCall) will be flow tested for a short period, logged, plugged and abandoned or turned over to industry early in FY 92. A second deep geopressured well in Louisiana, the Hulin Well, is being kept on standby. Related university research in geology, numerical reservoir modeling, subsidence, microseismicity, and water quality will continue, with program data reviews initiated in appropriate areas. Increased emphasis on integrated reservoir engineering will be implemented. The well activities coupled with the related university research are designed to improve the ability to forecast reservoir productive capacity, to verify the reliability of the resource as a long-term energy resource, and to determine the environmental effects of long-term production. By these means, the Geopressured-Geothermal Research Program is developing a solid technology base that private industry can use to evaluate the geopressured-geothermal resource. The Industrial Consortium for utilization of the resource will be continued. Use projects in Louisiana and Texas will be evaluated. A geopressured reservoir review will be managed by INEL. The DOE Field Office, Idaho will make preparations to complete the program. [DJE-2005

None

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Spending 4 Figure 1.4: United States Total Employment 4 Figure 1.5: United States Unemployment Statistics 5 Virginia's Counties 35 West Virginia's Metropolitan Statistical Areas 38 CHAPTER 5: SPECiAL TOPiCS, HEALTHRGiNiA ECONOMY Figure 2.1: Total Employment 9 Figure 2.2: West Virginia Employment Distribution by Sector (2012

Mohaghegh, Shahab

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

4  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

4 - 1 4 - 1 October 2000 4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS 4.1 INTRODUCTION We concentrated on finding data sources with information on population, income, driver/driving distance, physical/functional limitations, and crashes/fatalities. Because of the need to project results based on age groups, gender, and region, for each five-year time period, we needed specific data elements which could be matched among the various data sets. Although population projections were available from the U.S. Census Bureau, no other projections were available at the level of detail needed for the other categories. Therefore, we searched for historical data sets in the above categories to establish trends and relationships on which projections could be based. The perfect data source would contain

242

Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we present an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the renewable energy domain. We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which has been the most used of ANNs architectures both in the renewable energy domain and in the time series forecasting. We have used a MLP and an ad hoc time series pre-processing to develop a methodology for the daily prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. First results are promising with nRMSE {proportional_to} 21% and RMSE {proportional_to} 3.59 MJ/m{sup 2}. The optimized MLP presents predictions similar to or even better than conventional and reference methods such as ARIMA techniques, Bayesian inference, Markov chains and k-Nearest-Neighbors. Moreover we found that the data pre-processing approach proposed can reduce significantly forecasting errors of about 6% compared to conventional prediction methods such as Markov chains or Bayesian inference. The simulator proposed has been obtained using 19 years of available data from the meteorological station of Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France, 41 55'N, 8 44'E, 4 m above mean sea level). The predicted whole methodology has been validated on a 1.175 kWc mono-Si PV power grid. Six prediction methods (ANN, clear sky model, combination..) allow to predict the best daily DC PV power production at horizon d + 1. The cumulated DC PV energy on a 6-months period shows a great agreement between simulated and measured data (R{sup 2} > 0.99 and nRMSE < 2%). (author)

Paoli, Christophe; Muselli, Marc; Nivet, Marie-Laure [University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE, Corte (France); Voyant, Cyril [University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE, Corte (France); Hospital of Castelluccio, Radiotherapy Unit, Ajaccio (France)

2010-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

243

Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery | Department  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery 3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery March 4, 2011 - 5:03pm Addthis An Attic black-figured amphora, currently in the British Museum, of the type that will be studied at SLAC. | Photo by Marie-Lan Nguyen, Courtesy of SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory An Attic black-figured amphora, currently in the British Museum, of the type that will be studied at SLAC. | Photo by Marie-Lan Nguyen, Courtesy of SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Elizabeth Meckes Elizabeth Meckes Director of User Experience & Digital Technologies, Office of Public Affairs Last week, Bonneville Power Administration dispatchers in the Dittmer Control Center celebrated a milestone - for the first time, wind

244

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

245

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

246

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

247

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

253

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

257

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

258

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

260

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

262

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

263

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

264

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

265

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

266

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

267

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

269

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

270

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

271

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

272

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

273

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

275

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

276

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

277

Generating Spatio-Temporal Descriptions in Pollen Forecasts Ross Turner, Somayajulu Sripada and Ehud Reiter  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Date AreaID Value 27/06/2005 1 (North) 6 27/06/2005 2 (North West) 5 27/06/2005 3 (Central) 5 27/06/2005 4Generating Spatio-Temporal Descriptions in Pollen Forecasts Ross Turner, Somayajulu Sripada al., 1994) and MultiMeteo (Coch, 1998). 2 Knowledge Acquisition Our knowledge acquisition activities

278

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

279

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Travel Time Forecasting Lyngby 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

part of a new real-time traffic reporting system. This system is in the pipeline in the framework steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 7.4 Data cleaning, repair and aggregation

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

282

Fuel Cell Technologies Office Multi-Year Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan- Section 4.0 Systems Analysis  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Systems Analysis section of the Fuel Cell Technologies Office Multi-Year Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan; updated October 2014. This plan includes goals, objectives, technical targets, tasks, and schedules for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's contribution to the DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program.

283

Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL] Review, Vol. 25, Nos. 3 and 4, 1992 [The First Fifty Years  

DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

In observation of the 50th anniversary of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, this special double issue of the Review contains a history of the Laboratory, complete with photographs, drawings, and short accompanying articles. Table of contents include: Wartime Laboratory; High-flux Years; Accelerating Projects; Olympian Feats; Balancing Act; Responding to Social Needs; Energy Technologies; Diversity and Sharing; Global Outreach; Epilogue

Krause, C.(ed.)

1992-00-00T23:59:59.000Z

284

On May 4, 2011, Intel Corporation announced what it called the most radical shift in semiconductor technology in 50 years.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

technology in 50 years. A new 3dimensional transistor design will enable the production of integratedcircuit chips that operate faster with less power... The 3D TriGate transistor is a variant of the Fin SYMBOLS Nchannel MOSFET Pchannel MOSFET GND VDD S S D D CMOS INVERTER CIRCUIT VIN VOUT VOUT VIN 0 VDD VDD

California at Irvine, University of

285

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS This report summarizes the findings of a four-year research effort involving more than 4,000  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-year research effort involving more than 4,000 wind turbines, and aimed at better understanding bird mortality caused by existing and future wind turbines in the APWRA. We believe that the results presented here continue to be killed by wind turbines. We suggest that the rodent con

286

Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Requirements for Requirements for m461:Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions Tomek Plewa (Florida State University) + 3 graduate students, Artur Gawryszczak (Warsaw), Konstantinos Kifonidis (Munich), Andrzej Odrzywolek (Cracow), Ju Zhang (FIT), Andrey Zhiglo (Kharkov) 1. m461: Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions * Summarize your projects and expected scientific objectives through 2014 * Modeling and simulations of transient phenomena in stellar astrophysics driven by either radiation or thermonuclear processes * Numerical solution of a coupled system of PDEs and ODEs * Tame nonlinearity! * Our goal is to ... * Explain observed properties of exploding stellar objects * Present focus is ... * Neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions * In the next 3 years we expect to ...

287

Modeling and Analysis Papers - Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation > Table 1 Evaluation > Table 1 Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to 2002 Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO97 AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Total Coal Consumption 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 Total Electricity Sales 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 Production Crude Oil Production 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Natural Gas Production 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 Coal Production 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 10.1 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 Net Natural Gas Imports 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 Net Coal Exports

288

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

289

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

290

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

291

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250 m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in April–May provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2–3 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in April–May that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3 t ha?1 in June and 0.4 t ha?1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.5–0.6 t ha?1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 2–3 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.

Felix Kogan; Nataliia Kussul; Tatiana Adamenko; Sergii Skakun; Oleksii Kravchenko; Oleksii Kryvobok; Andrii Shelestov; Andrii Kolotii; Olga Kussul; Alla Lavrenyuk

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery | Department  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery March 4, 2011 - 5:03pm Addthis An Attic black-figured amphora, currently in the British Museum, of the type that will be studied at SLAC. | Photo by Marie-Lan Nguyen, Courtesy of SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory An Attic black-figured amphora, currently in the British Museum, of the type that will be studied at SLAC. | Photo by Marie-Lan Nguyen, Courtesy of SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Elizabeth Meckes Elizabeth Meckes Director of User Experience & Digital Technologies, Office of Public Affairs Last week, Bonneville Power Administration dispatchers in the Dittmer Control Center celebrated a milestone - for the first time, wind

295

BBO-based small autonomous hybrid power system optimization incorporating wind speed and solar radiation forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Rising carbon emission or carbon footprint imposes grave concern over the earth?s climatic condition, as it results in increasing average global temperature. Renewable energy sources seem to be the favorable solution in this regard. It can reduce the overall energy consumption rate globally. However, the renewable sources are intermittent in nature with very high initial installation price. Off-grid Small Autonomous Hybrid Power Systems (SAHPS) are good alternative for generating electricity locally in remote areas, where the transmission and distribution of electrical energy generated from conventional sources are otherwise complex, difficult and costly. In optimizing SAHPS, weather data over past several years are generally the main input, which include wind speed and solar radiation. The weather resources used in this optimization process have unsystematic variations based on the atmospheric and seasonal phenomenon and it also varies from year to year. While using past data in the analysis of SAHPS performance, it was assumed that the same pattern will be followed in the next year, which in reality is very unlikely to happen. In this paper, we use BBO optimization algorithm for SAHPS optimal component sizing by minimizing the cost of energy. We have also analysed the effect of using forecast weather data instead of past data on the SAHPS performance. ANNs, which are trained with back-propagation training algorithm, are used for wind speed and solar radiation forecasting. A case study was used for demonstrating the performance of BBO optimization algorithm along with forecasting effects. The simulation results clearly showed the advantages of utilizing wind speed and solar radiation forecasting in a SAHPS optimization problem.

R.A. Gupta; Rajesh Kumar; Ajay Kumar Bansal

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

297

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

298

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

299

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Clean Cities Now, Vol. 12, No.4 - October 2008; Fifteenth (15th) Anniversary Edition, 15 Years of Petroleum Reduction, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (Brochure)  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

2 - No. 4 * October 2008 2 - No. 4 * October 2008 ENERGY U.S. DEPARTMENT OF Clean Cities Now More than Ever Time flies when you're having fun. That's certainly the case for Clean Cities, which is celebrating its 15-year anniversary this month. We've accomplished a lot since September 1993, when Atlanta was designated as the U.S. Department of Energy's first Clean Cities coalition. Thanks to the enthusiastic dedication of our almost 90 coordinators and nationwide network of more than 5,500

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301

More Supply Possible This Fall than Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: Increased distillate fuel production sure seems to explain some of the January 2001 stock increase. This graph shows the distillate yield pattern over the 1990's. Generally yields rise in the fall to build stocks for winter distillate use. On average, the yield during the fourth quarter is about 2% higher than the average of the lowest yield months of June, July and August. (Recognize that a 1% change in yield is about a 150 MB/D change in distillate production, which is about 4% of winter demand.) During the fall of 1996, the winter season began with very low stocks, but refiners pushed yields to very high levels and regained some of the lost ground. As we saw earlier, we entered last winter in a similar situation as 1996 with low stock levels. At last year's SHOPP conference, Joanne Shore

302

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

303

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

305

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

306

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

307

Bayesian forecasting of demand time-series data with zero values  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper describes the development of a Bayesian procedure to analyse and forecast positive demand time-series data with a proportion of zero values and a high level of variability for the non-zero data. The resulting forecasts play decisive roles in organisational planning, budgeting, and performance monitoring. Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. However, they can be unsuitable for the analysis of non-negative demand time-series data with the aforementioned features. In this paper, an unconstrained latent demand underlying the observed demand is introduced into the linear heteroscedastic model associated with the Holt-Winters model. Accurate forecasts for the observed demand can readily be derived from those obtained with exponential smoothing for the latent demand. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated using a simulation study and two real time-series datasets which correspond to tourism demand and book sales. [Received 4 November 2010; Revised 7 September 2011, 10 April 2012; Accepted 10 May 2012

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

309

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

310

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

311

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

Templeton, K.J.

1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

314

Recurrence of Lung Adenocarcinoma After an Interval of 15 Years Revealed by Demonstration of the Same Type of EML4–ALK Fusion Gene  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We carried out an experiment on a 58-year-old man with multiple left lung tumors and swelling of multiple lymph nodes. For clinical staging and therapeutic purposes, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytology and lung biopsy were performed. The biopsy specimen revealed the left lower lung mass to be immunohistochemically ALK (anaplastic lymphoma kinase)-positive adenocarcinoma. Using the BAL specimen from the left lower lung, EML4 (echinoderm microtubule-associated protein-like 4)-ALK variant 1 fusion gene was detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). His past history showed that he had undergone an operation for lung adenocarcinoma of the right lower lobe 15 years before, and the pathological specimen at that time revealed that the lung adenocarcinoma with pleural invasion and single metastasis of mediastinal lymph node showed a mucinous cribriform pattern and/or signet-ring cell pattern. The typical histology led us to examine the ALK rearrangement in the primary lung cancer and mediastinal metastatic tumor. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) for ALK was positive, and ALK break apart fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) showed a positive result. Moreover, RT-PCR using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue from the right lung cancer also demonstrated EML4–ALK variant 1 fusion gene. Although there is a possibility that the left lung cancer is de novo one with multiple metastases, detection of the same fusion gene of the very rare EML4–ALK variant 1 in both tumors suggests that the left cancer is a recurrence of the right lung cancer after an interval of 15 years.

Yoshitane Tsukamoto; Kiyonobu Kanamori; Takahiro Watanabe; Koji Mikami; Ryuji Ieki; Takashi Nakano; Kazuyoshi Kajimoto; Seiichi Hirota

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Microsoft Word - Analytic Report 4-2_20140822_FINAL.docx  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

(30-year) forecast horizon, subject to assumptions on macroeconomic and financial factors, world energy markets, resource availability and costs, behavioral and technological...

316

Fusion of artificial neural network and fuzzy system for short term weather forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather forecasting is the challenging problem for the modern life. Some researches have been conducted to design the accurate prediction in some past years but still it is incomplete. In this paper, we propose the system of short period weather forecasting designed based on the current weather parameter consisted of temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction and speed and present weather condition. This system uses fusion of feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy system architecture as main algorithm of weather prediction, Lavendberg-Marquadt as learning algorithm and fuzzy C-mean (FCM) as clustering method in initialisation step. Based on the system architecture, this method can predict the weather continuously despite the change of unpredictable patterns. Furthermore, this system has clear reasoning logic on the fuzzy logic instead of its adaptation ability on its neural network architecture. The performance of proposed system has accuracy up to 78% for validity among three possible weathers, i.e., shiny, cloudy and rainy.

Budiman Putra; Bagus Tris Atmaja; Syahroni Hidayat

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

322

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

323

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

324

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

325

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

326

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

327

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

329

Foundation Year Aguideforstudents  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Foundation Year Aguideforstudents #12;2 Contents TheFoundationYears 5 Engineering/Physics/Geophysics FoundationYear 6 ScienceFoundationYear 7 EntryRequirements 8 Moneymatters 10 Universitylife 10 TheUniversity 10 Thecity 10 Accommodation 10 Studentaccommodation MontefioreHouse4.. #12;3 OurFoundation

Anderson, Jim

330

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

331

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

332

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

333

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

334

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

336

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

1982-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

338

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.

Luiz C.M. Miranda; C.A.S. Lima

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

The Power Load Forecasting by Kernel PCA  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We use one year’s subset to train the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the next year’s data was used for testing with Kernel Principal Components Analysis (KPCA). This is clearly not optimal for a non-station...

Fang-Tsung Liu; Chiung-Hsing Chen…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

Valero, O.J.

1996-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

344

LNG to the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

By 2000, about 190 MM metric-tpy of LNG will be moving in world trade, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer By the year 2000, approximately 190 million metric tons per year of LNG will be moving in worldwide trade. Production of LNG will be spread throughout most of the world, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer. LNG will be delivered only to the heavily industrialized areas of North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The success of any LNG project will be dependent on its individual economics, market needs, financial planning, and governmental permit processes. We hope industry will be able to put together the LNG projects required to meet the quanitities of production forecast here for the year 2000.

Davenport, S.T.

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

346

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

347

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

349

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holt’s additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corberán-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermúdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

353

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

355

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

358

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

364

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

365

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Héctor Rodríguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

368

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

369

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Modelling and forecasting Oman crude oil prices using Box-Jenkins techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Box-Jenkins' Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling approach has been applied for the time series analysis of monthly average prices of Oman crude oil taken over a period of 10 years. Several seasonal and non-seasonal ARIMA models were identified. These models were then estimated and compared for their adequacy using the significance of the parameter estimates, mean square errors and Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic. Based on these criterion a multiplicative seasonal model of the form ARIMA (1,1,5)x(1,1,1) was recommended for short term forecasting.

M.I. Ahmad

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

372

4  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Change 1 4.4 Are there terms and conditions, beyond standard practice, that must be included in contract agreements under Recovery Act? Contracting Officers must incorporate the FAR Recovery Act clauses from Federal Acquisition Circular 2005-32 into all solicitations and new and amended contracts and task orders. Contracting Officer must also incorporate the Special Terms and Conditions - Acquisition (Attachment 4) into all new and amended contracts and task orders to ensure contractor compliance with the requirements of the Recovery Act not covered by the FAR clauses. 4.5 Are there actions, beyond standard practices, that agencies must take related to oversight and audit of contracts awarded under Recovery Act? Additional audits may be required for contracts using Recovery Act funds. Incurred cost audits

373

4  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

7. Name and signature of the OJT instructor 8. Name and signature of the OJT evaluator DOERL-92-36, Hanford Site Hoisting and Rigging Manual Chapter 4.0 - PERSONNEL...

374

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

376

Data:0c15861e-a8a8-4319-82f6-c75f4e29fe23 | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

61e-a8a8-4319-82f6-c75f4e29fe23 61e-a8a8-4319-82f6-c75f4e29fe23 No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic Information 2. Demand 3. Energy << Previous 1 2 3 Next >> Basic Information Utility name: City of Orangeburg, South Carolina (Utility Company) Effective date: 2009/01/01 End date if known: Rate name: Large Demand Sector: Commercial Description: Applicable: To any customer for general power and energy purposes with demands over 1200 kW. This schedule is not applicable to breakdown, standby, supplementary, resale or shared electric service. Customer must provide and pay for the cost of suitable communication equipment and power source (including any ongoing monthly charges) for Department installed monitoring and metering equipment. On or before August 1st of each calendar year, Customer shall provide DPU with a written forecast of Customer's maximum on-peak demand during the succeeding year (12-month period beginning January 1st). The on-peak period shall be as specified below. If agreed to by the DPU, such forecast as provided by Customer shall constitute Customer's contract demand during the succeeding contract year. In the event Customer fails to provide a forecast to DPU or DPU does not agree to Customer's forecast, Customer's contract demand during the succeeding contract year shall be the greater of Customer's current contract demand or Customer's maximum integrated one-hour metered demand during on-peak periods during the current contract year.

377

Data:Dbbdcd3d-79fd-4edf-92b6-74beef77aea3 | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Dbbdcd3d-79fd-4edf-92b6-74beef77aea3 Dbbdcd3d-79fd-4edf-92b6-74beef77aea3 No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic Information 2. Demand 3. Energy << Previous 1 2 3 Next >> Basic Information Utility name: City of Orangeburg, South Carolina (Utility Company) Effective date: 2009/01/01 End date if known: Rate name: Medium Demand Sector: Commercial Description: Applicable: To any customer for general power and energy purposes having demands of 200 kW and not exceeding 1200 kW. This schedule is not applicable to breakdown, standby, supplementary, resale or shared electric service. Customer must provide and pay for the cost of suitable communication equipment and power source (including any ongoing monthly charges) for Department installed monitoring and metering equipment. On or before August 1st of each calendar year, Customer shall provide DPU with a written forecast of Customer's maximum on-peak demand during the succeeding year (12-month period beginning January 1st). The on-peak period shall be as specified below. If agreed to by the DPU, such forecast as provided by Customer shall constitute Customer's contract demand during the succeeding contract year. In the event Customer fails to provide a forecast to DPU or DPU does not agree to Customer's forecast, Customer's contract demand during the succeeding contract year shall be the greater of Customer's current contract demand or Customer's maximum integrated one-hour metered demand during on-peak periods during the current contract year.

378

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Links with Primary Science: SAD PhysicsPhysics Research: In a hurry...Physics Community: Scottish Stirling MeetingPhysics at Congress: Global warming forecasts rise in skin cancerEvents: 2001 SET weekE-mail Discussions: Learning in scienceStudent Activity: Paperclip PhysicsCurriculum Development: Perspectives on ScienceAwards: Award for causing chaosPhysics at Congress: Physics and public heath: Do electrical power lines cause cancer?Higher Education: First-year course developmentInterschool Collaboration: Monitoring geomagnetic stormsCurriculum Development: UK course goes internationalPhysics in Science Year: Website launched  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

YOUR NEWS WANTED The news section gives updates on what has been happening in physics education worldwide. Items included show how events in one country could be relevant to good practice elsewhere in the world. Contributions are welcome from all our readers and should be about 200 to 300 words and can include a picture. Contents: Links with Primary Science: SAD Physics Physics Research: In a hurry... Physics Community: Scottish Stirling Meeting Physics at Congress: Global warming forecasts rise in skin cancer Events: 2001 SET week E-mail Discussions: Learning in science Student Activity: Paperclip Physics Curriculum Development: Perspectives on Science Awards: Award for causing chaos Physics at Congress: Physics and public heath: Do electrical power lines cause cancer? Higher Education: First-year course development Interschool Collaboration: Monitoring geomagnetic storms Curriculum Development: UK course goes international Physics in Science Year: Website launched LINKS WITH PRIMARY SCIENCESAD Physics Perhaps you're looking for a way to excite primary school children about the science awaiting them at secondary school. Perhaps you want to improve links with your feeder primaries? If so, you might like to try a Science in Action Day (SAD for short!), run for the first time earlier this year in rural North Yorkshire at Norton College with a neighbouring school in Malton. Science coordinators chose those pupils they felt would benefit most (not necessarily the most able scientists) from both sets of feeder primary schools. Over a hundred pupils wanted to come (from roughly 20 feeder schools, most of them small village primaries) and the event - with only two staff and one technician to run the day - had to severely limit numbers. The focus was 'Rockets'. The NASA kids' website ( http://kids.msfc.nasa.gov and then follow the links to the rocket pages!) provided a wealth of activities for the morning. The day began with a big screen presentation about the Shuttle and some of the principles involved in launching it into space. The 60 pupils who attended were then divided into two groups for hands-on activities. One group looked at the principles of momentum conservation, with activities ranging from building and racing balloon-powered rocket cars to making Hero's engines from fizzy drinks cans. The second group looked at fuels, with activities such as making matchstick solid fuel rockets and launching a hydrogen-powered tin can rocket from floor to ceiling in the laboratory. Rockets launched from drinking straws. Making matchstick solid fuel rockets. After a break, the first group of pupils went off to build their own drinking straw-launched rockets and the other group went off to the IT suite to investigate the optimal launch parameters for a water rocket. The race was on to see who could launch their virtual rocket to the greatest height (see http://www.ag.ohio-state.edu/~rockets/). Finally real rockets were launched: water rockets - one commercial and one home-made - and a STOMP rocket, a larger scale version of the drinking straw rockets (both rockets are available from the Science Museum - see http://www.sciencemuseumstore.com/). At the end of the day every pupil was presented with a certificate declaring them to be an expert in rocketry and they were returned, flushed and excited, to their waiting parents. Simon Carson and Ian Martin PHYSICS RESEARCHIn a hurry... The pace of publication in education may seem rapid as one reform follows another. But in the world of research things can happen even more quickly. A group from Tokyo University discovered bulk superconductivity in magnesium diboride (MgB2) at 39 K - the highest transition temperature so far achieved in a bulk non-copper oxide superconductor. What makes it especially remarkable is the fact that this material is cheap and readily available, unlike its predecesors. The group published their findings on 1 March in Nature. Almost at the same time a few groups around the world have been racing to publish their results on this wonder material, some of the rivals be

382

RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY TO RURAL MEXICO, YEAR 2000  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

ABSTRACT A forecast of the renewable energy supply to rural zones is presented, for Mexico in the year 2000. The social needs of a typical village, the energy requirements associated, the availability of local energy sources and the techno-economic viability of different systems are considered. The required energy to be supplied is about 1.5 and 2.5% of the national total estimated, for electrical and thermal uses, respectively. Eventhough the proposed alternative systems are techno-economically viable, a strong development program could only satisfy 7 to 10% of the electrical demand and 14 to 29% of the heat demand. KEYWORDS Energy supply; Mexico; Forecast studies; Economic Analysis.

Manuel Martinez

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Busted Butte Unsaturated Zone Transport Test: Fiscal Year 1998 Status Report Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Program Deliverable SPU85M4  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes the status of the Busted Butte Unsaturated Zone Transport Test (UZTT) and documents the progress of construction activities and site and laboratory characterization activities undertaken in fiscal year 1998. Also presented are predictive flow-and-transport simulations for Test Phases 1 and 2 of testing and the preliminary results and status of these test phases. Future anticipated results obtained from unsaturated-zone (UZ) transport testing in the Calico Hills Formation at Busted Butte are also discussed in view of their importance to performance assessment (PA) needs to build confidence in and reduce the uncertainty of site-scale flow-and-transport models and their abstractions for performance for license application. The principal objectives of the test are to address uncertainties associated with flow and transport in the UZ site-process models for Yucca Mountain, as identified by the PA working group in February 1997. These include but are not restricted to: (1) The effect of heterogeneities on flow and transport in unsaturated and partially saturated conditions in the Calico Hills Formation. In particular, the test aims to address issues relevant to fracture-matrix interactions and permeability contrast boundaries; (2) The migration behavior of colloids in fractured and unfractured Calico Hills rocks; (3) The validation through field testing of laboratory sorption experiments in unsaturated Calico Hills rocks; (4) The evaluation of the 3-D site-scale flow-and-transport process model (i.e., equivalent-continuum/dual-permeability/discrete-fracture-fault representations of flow and transport) used in the PA abstractions for license application; and (5) The effect of scaling from lab scale to field scale and site scale.

Bussod, G.Y.; Turin, H.J.; Lowry, W.E.

1999-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

386

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.

Rafa? Weron

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

390

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 12–24-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning… (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

402

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

4  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

2.3 ALTERNATIVE SITES Considerable additional expense would be required if the proposed research were conducted at an alternative site. The unique expertise of the METC researchers was a key factor in determining that the proposed work should be performed at METC. METC is equipped to perform the proposed work, and the project would be integrated with existing support systems (e.g., utilities and analytical facilities) already at METC. As a result, environmental impacts of alternative sites was not analyzed in this EA. 2.4 ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES Alternative technologies to circulating PFBC reactors include fixed-bed, bubbling-bed, and entrained-bed reactors. Each of the alternative technologies is already undergoing development at METC and/or its contractors. Data collected from the circulating

405

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents – a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

408

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

409

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

410

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

411

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

412

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

413

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

414

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

415

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

416

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

417

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

418

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

419

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

420

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

422

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

423

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

424

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

425

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

427

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

428

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

429

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

430

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

431

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

432

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

433

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

434

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

435

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

437

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

438

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

439

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

440

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper the analysis and forecasting of wind velocities in Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico is presented. Measurements were made by the Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas (IIE) during two years, from 2004 to 2005. This location exemplifies the wind energy generation potential in the Caribbean coast of Mexico that could be employed in the hotel industry in the next decade. The wind speed and wind direction were measured at 10 m above ground level. Sensors with high accuracy and a low starting threshold were used. The wind velocity was recorded using a data acquisition system supplied by a 10 W photovoltaic panel. The wind speed values were measured with a frequency of 1 Hz and the average wind speed was recorded considering regular intervals of 10 min. First a statistical analysis of the time series was made in the first part of the paper through conventional and robust measures. Also the forecasting of the last day of measurements was made utilizing the single exponential smoothing method (SES). The results showed a very good accuracy of the data with this technique for an ? value of 0.9. Finally the SES method was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) method showing the former better results.

E. Cadenas; O.A. Jaramillo; W. Rivera

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Daily pollution forecast using optimal meteorological data at synoptic and local scales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present a simple framework to easily pre-select the most essential data for accurately forecasting the concentration of the pollutant PM$_{10}$, based on pollutants observations for the years 2002 until 2006 in the metropolitan region of Lisbon, Portugal. Starting from a broad panoply of different data sets collected at several meteorological stations, we apply a forward stepwise regression procedure that enables us not only to identify the most important variables for forecasting the pollutant but also to rank them in order of importance. We argue the importance of this variable ranking, showing that the ranking is very sensitive to the urban spot where measurements are taken. Having this pre-selection, we then present the potential of linear and non-linear neural network models when applied to the concentration of pollutant PM$_{10}$. Similarly to previous studies for other pollutants, our validation results show that non-linear models in average perform as well or worse as linear models for PM$_{10}$. F...

Russo, Ana; Raischel, Frank; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Forecast of Advanced Technology Adoption for Coal Fired Power Generation Towards the Year of 2050  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The considered systems of coal fired power generation are Supercritical Unit, Ultra Supercritical Unit, ... . In order to compare with the natural gas case, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) is included. Evaluati...

Keiji Makino

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

445

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

446

YEAR USDA DOE DOD DHHS DE NASA NSF OTHER1 1986 14,636 4,722 3,525 75,159 21,422 1,638 14,810 3,058 138,970 11  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

,432 1,549 5,449 43,232 13,983 310,687 16 2002* 25,742 9,813 12,279 222,441 1,256 4,968 43,184 6,843 326FISCAL YEAR USDA DOE DOD DHHS DE NASA NSF OTHER1 TOTAL RANK 1986 14,636 4,722 3,525 75,159 21,422 1

Netoff, Theoden

447

NUCLEAR ENGINEERING Four Year Plan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NUCLEAR ENGINEERING Four Year Plan Fall 2009 Nuclear Engineering (67 hrs) CH Grade Perspectives (15;Nuclear Engineering Four Year Plan Starting Fall 2009 FALL Year 1 Credits WINTER Year 1 Credits SPRING I NE 452 3 Neutronic Analysis II NE 457 2 Nuclear Reactor Lab Western Culture (3): NE 467 4 Nucl

Tullos, Desiree

448

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

(AAPI,F) 0 0 0% Hispanic Male (H,M) 0 0 0% Hispanic Female (H,F) 3 4 33.33% White Male (W,M) 8 6 -25.00% White Female (W,F) 2 4 100% PAY PLAN Change DIVERSITY...

449

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

(AAPI,F) 1 1 0% Hispanic Male (H,M) 4 4 0% Hispanic Female (H,F) 9 7 -22.22% White Male (W,M) 13 13 0% White Female (W,F) 11 9 -18.18% PAY PLAN Change DIVERSITY...

450

2007 Florida Hard Clam Aquaculture Outlook So what's in store for the new year? Expec-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2007 Florida Hard Clam Aquaculture Outlook So what's in store for the new year? Expec- tations://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. The current economic outlook for U.S. aquacultural producers for 2007 is clouded by wide swings in energy prices. Energy prices are falling, but remain above year-earlier levels. The domestic economic forecast

Florida, University of

451

Updated 5/20/14 Freshman Year (32) Sophomore Year (34) Junior Year (34)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Updated 5/20/14 Freshman Year (32) Sophomore Year (34) Junior Year (34) Fall (15) Spring (18) Fall (17) Spring (16) Fall (18) Spring (16) Fall (16) Spring (13) CALC I (4) CALC III [4] SOLIDS (3) CALC membership recommended prerequisite corequisite Engineering-related summer job or internship recommended lab

452

Updated 3/21/13 Freshman Year (32) Sophomore Year (34) Junior Year (34)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Updated 3/21/13 Freshman Year (32) Sophomore Year (34) Junior Year (34) Fall (15) Spring (17) Fall (18) Spring (16) Fall (18) Spring (16) Fall (16) Spring (13) CALC I (4) CALC III [4] SOLIDS (3) CALC membership recommended prerequisite corequisite Engineering-related summer job or internship recommended lab

453

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with a projected real increase of 6.1 percent; Hospitality and Leisure Services with a projected real increase of 4.2 percent; and Educational and Heath Services with a projected real increase of 3.8 percent. · For 2012. The sectors with the strongest expected growth are Educational and Health Services with a projected real

Chen, Keh-Hsun

454

Detiding DART buoy data for real-time extraction of source coefficients for operational tsunami forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...

Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Forecasting the Dark Energy Measurement with Baryon Acoustic Oscillations: Prospects for the LAMOST surveys  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Large Area Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) is a dedicated spectroscopic survey telescope being built in China, with an effective aperture of 4 meters and equiped with 4000 fibers. Using the LAMOST telescope, one could make redshift survey of the large scale structure (LSS). The baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) features in the LSS power spectrum provide standard rulers for measuring dark energy and other cosmological parameters. In this paper we investigate the meaurement precision achievable for a few possible surveys: (1) a magnitude limited survey of all galaxies, (2) a survey of color selected red luminous galaxies (LRG), and (3) a magnitude limited, high density survey of zsurvey, we use the halo model to estimate the bias of the sample, and calculate the effective volume. We then use the Fisher matrix method to forecast the error on the dark energy equation of state and other cosmological parameters for different survey parameters. In a few cases we also use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to make the same forecast as a comparison. The fiber time required for each of these surveys is also estimated. These results would be useful in designing the surveys for LAMOST.

Xin Wang; Xuelei Chen; Zheng Zheng; Fengquan Wu; Pengjie Zhang; Yongheng Zhao

2008-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

456

Variational Assimilation for Xenon Dynamical Forecasts in Neutronic using Advanced Background Error Covariance Matrix  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Ponçot, Angélique; Bouriquet, Bertrand; Erhard, Patrick; Gratton, Serge; Thual, Olivier

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Variational assimilation for xenon dynamical forecasts in neutronic using advanced background error covariance matrix modelling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermal–hydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Angélique Ponçot; Jean-Philippe Argaud; Bertrand Bouriquet; Patrick Erhard; Serge Gratton; Olivier Thual

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the height of the 200- and )00-mb pressure surfaces associated with nonturbulent and turbulent cases . . . . . . o. . . . . o o ~ o ~ . ~ . 17 4. Empirical frequency distributions for the temperature of the 200- and 300-mb pressure surfaces associated... with nonturbulent and turbulent areas. . . . . . ~ . . . . . ~ . ~ ~ Empirical frequency distributions of the zonal wind component on the 200- and 300-mb press- ure surfaces associated with nonturbulent and turbulent areas . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ 20...

Arbeiter, Randolph George

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

459

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/ Research Highlight Predicting how atmospheric aerosols influence cloud formation and the resulting feedback to climate is a challenge that limits the accuracy of atmospheric models. This is especially true in the Arctic, where mixed-phase (both ice- and liquid-based) clouds are frequently observed, but the processes that determine their composition are poorly understood. To obtain a closer look at what makes up Arctic clouds, scientists characterized cloud droplets and ice crystals collected at the North Slope of Alaska as part of the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) field study

460

Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the out-predictability of fundamentals and forecast combinations. By adopting a panel-based specification, the paper obtains several interesting results. First, the Taylor-rule-based fundamental is the best among the four different fundamentals under consideration in out-of-sample contests. It provides strong evidence to out-predict the random walk over the PBW period. Second, relative to a single-equation prediction, panel predictions are generally able to enhance the statistical significance of beating the random walk. Third, combining forecasts from different fundamentals that have relatively strong out-predictability at a specific horizon does enhance both the statistical and economic significances of beating the random walk for the PBW period at short horizons.

Jyh-Lin Wu; Yi-Chiuan Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

462

Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONTINUOUS MODEL UPDATING AND FORECASTING FOR A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR A Thesis by HISHAM HASSAN S. ALMOHAMMADI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... guidance and support throughout my time here in Texas A&M University. I also would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Eduardo Gildin and Dr. Michael Sherman, for providing valued insight and help during the course of this research. I am indebted...

Almohammadi, Hisham

2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

464

NOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.S.D EPARTMENT OF COM M ERCE How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? #12;Well you put a truck in orbit? So it can carry all the things needed to make a working weather satelliteNOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster. I need to see clouds and storms from way up

Waliser, Duane E.

465

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

466

Water resources data for Florida, water year 1992. Volume 4. Northwest Florida. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1991-30 September 1992  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Water resources data for the 1992 water year for northwest Florida include continuous or daily discharge for 44 streams, periodic discharge for 3 streams, miscellaneous discharge for 44 streams, continuous or daily sage for 11 streams, continuous daily tide stage for 2 sites, periodic stage for 0 streams, peak discharge for 2 streams, and peak stage for 2 streams; continuous or daily elevations for 2 lakes, periodic elevations for 1 lake; continuous ground water levels for 0 wells, periodic groundwater levels for 18 wells, and miscellaneous water-level measurements for 0 wells; quality-of-water data for 13 surface-water sites and 0 wells.

Not Available

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Academic Plan Freshman Year Sophomore Year Junior Year Senior Year  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Undergraduate Handbook and enter College requirement courses: 1. Math (4): 1910, 1920, 2940, (2930) 2. Physical to pages 37-98 of the Engineering Undergraduate Handbook and enter the Major course requirements 1. "Core Undergraduate Handbook and highlight the courses used for the minor. Ditto for non- Engineering minors. IV

Van Loan, Charles F.

468

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

4 2 -50.00% Hispanic Male (H,M) 3 3 0% Hispanic Female (H,F) 5 6 20.00% White Male (W,M) 35 25 -28.57% White Female (W,F) 20 18 -10.00% Associate...

469

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

(AAPI,F) 0 0 0% Hispanic Male (H,M) 1 0 -100% Hispanic Female (H,F) 0 0 0% White Male (W,M) 84 80 -4.76% White Female (W,F) 24 21 -12.50% *Includes NRLFO...

470

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

(AAPI,F) 0 0 0% Hispanic Male (H,M) 1 0 -100% Hispanic Female (H,F) 0 0 0% White Male (W,M) 25 24 -4.00% White Female (W,F) 6 6 0% Kansas City Field Office PAY...

471

Y YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Hispanic Male (H,M) 207 195 -5.80% Hispanic Female (H,F) 182 171 -6.04% White Male (W,M) 1271 1217 -4.25% White Female (W,F) 463 435 -6.05% Total includes...

472

Annual Summary Report Calendar Year 2000 for the 100-HR-3, 100-KR-4, and 100-NR-2 Operable Units and Pump-and-Treat Operations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This annual progress and performance evaluation report discusses the groundwater remedial actions in the 100 Area, including the interim actions at the 100-HR-3 and 100-KR-4 Operable Units, and also discusses the expedited response action in the 100-NR-2 operable unit.

G. B. Mitchem

2001-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

473

Cross-correlation of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe third-year data and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR4 galaxy survey: new evidence for dark energy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR4 galaxy survey: new evidence for dark energy A. Cabre 1 E. Gaztanaga 1 2 M. Manera...2005; Gaztanaga et al. 2006). Upcoming surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES, ), with deeper galaxy samples......

A. Cabré; E. Gaztañaga; M. Manera; P. Fosalba; F. Castander

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) The projections of world energy consumption appearing in this yearÂ’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) are based on the Energy Information AdministrationÂ’s (EIAÂ’s) international energy modeling tool, System for the Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE). SAGE is an integrated set of regional models that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy consumption. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each regionÂ’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply.

475

Waste Information Management System: One Year After Web Deployment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The implementation of the Department of Energy (DOE) mandated accelerated cleanup program created significant potential technical impediments. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to site waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedules. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast information regarding the volumes and types of waste that would be generated by DOE sites over the next 30 years. Each local DOE site has historically collected, organized, and displayed site waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. However, waste information from all sites needed a common application to allow interested parties to understand and view the complete complex-wide picture. A common application allows identification of total waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, and technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, has completed the deployment of this fully operational, web-based forecast system. New functional modules and annual waste forecast data updates have been added to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. In conclusion: WIMS continues to successfully accomplish the goals and objectives set forth by DOE for this project. WIMS has replaced the historic process of each DOE site gathering, organizing, and reporting their waste forecast information utilizing different database and display technologies. In addition, WIMS meets DOE's objective to have the complex-wide waste forecast information available to all stakeholders and the public in one easy-to-navigate system. The enhancements to WIMS made over the year since its web deployment include the addition of new DOE sites, an updated data set, and the ability to easily print the forecast data tables, the disposition maps, and the GIS maps. Future enhancements will include a high-level waste summary, a display of waste forecast by mode of transportation, and a user help module. The waste summary display module will provide a high-level summary view of the waste forecast data based on the selection of sites, facilities, material types, and forecast years. The waste summary report module will allow users to build custom filtered reports in a variety of formats, such as MS Excel, MS Word, and PDF. The user help module will provide a step-by-step explanation of various modules, using screen shots and general tutorials. The help module will also provide instructions for printing and margin/layout settings to assist users in using their local printers to print maps and reports. (authors)

Shoffner, P.A.; Geisler, T.J.; Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W. [Applied Research Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL (United States)

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Low Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) Low Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) Formats Low Economic Growth Case Data Projection Tables (1 to 13 complete) Excel PDF Table Title Table C1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C3 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C4 World Oil Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C5 World Natural Cas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C6 World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C7 World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C8 World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low Economic Growth Case

477

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

High Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) High Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) Formats High Economic Growth Case Data Projection Tables (1 to 13 complete) Excel PDF Table Title Table B1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B3 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B4 World Oil Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B5 World Natural Cas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B6 World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B7 World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B8 World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case

478

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Projection Tables (1990-2025) Projection Tables (1990-2025) Formats All Reference Case Data Projection Tables (1 to 14 complete) Excel PDF Table Title Table A1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A3 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A4 World Oil Consumption by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A5 World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A6 World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A7 World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A8 World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case Excel PDF Table A9 World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, Reference Case

479

Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. Minh Le Minh Le Program Manager, Solar Program What Do These Projects Do? The Energy Department is investing $8 million in two cutting-edge projects to increase the accuracy of solar forecasting at sub-hourly,

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 4" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: A hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A hybrid mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting model combining both least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and auto-regressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single LSSVM.

Xing Yan; Nurul A. Chowdhury

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods an...

Baran, Sándor

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Tables (2002-2025) Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Tables (2002-2025) Formats Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Data Tables (1 to 15 complete) Excel PDF Table Title Table D1 Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel Excel PDF Table D2 Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel Excel PDF Table D3 Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel Excel PDF Table D4 Delivered Energy Consumption in Western Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel Excel PDF Table D5 Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel Excel PDF Table D6 Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel Excel PDF Table D7 Delivered Energy Consumption in the Former Soviet Union by End-Use Sector and Fuel

484

Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to measure various aspects of the California redwood lumber industry. The first sought to explain the economic struc- ture of the short-run market for redwood lumber by preparing short-range forecasts of price, new orders, shipments, produc- tion, stocks... regression coefficients (20) . The second study was directed at developing a short-run forecast of new orders for redwood lumber (21) . Several forecasting techniques were developed, but econometrics, i. e. , multiple regression analysis, provided...

Jackson, Ben Douglas

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

486

Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 1 (Main text and Appendix I, sections 1--4)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 1 contains the main body of the report and the first 4 sections of Appendix 1: Modeling of black liquor recovery boilers -- summary report; Flow and heat transfer modeling in the upper furnace of a kraft recovery boiler; Numerical simulation of black liquor combustion; and Investigation of turbulence models and prediction of swirling flows for kraft recovery furnaces.

Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

1998-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

WasteStreamForecast2010.xls  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Reporting Reporting Site Disposition Facility Field Stream ID Actual Dispos 2009 Starting Inventory 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to 2019 2020 to 2024 2025 to 2029 2030 to 2034 2035 to 2039 2040-50 1 Ames Energy Solutions-Clive (formerly Envirocare) 8020-01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 60.00 2 Argonne Area 5 LLW Disposal Unit (NTS) AEL105DOEa 55.12 50.45 72.36 29.22 29.22 29.22 29.22 29.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 Argonne Area 5 LLW Disposal Unit (NTS) AEL106DOEa 0.38 0.07 0.09 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 Argonne Area 5 LLW Disposal Unit (NTS) AE-L104DOE 0.19 10.85 11.19 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 Argonne Area 5 LLW Disposal Unit (NTS) AEL103DOE 74.13 87.37 110.16 30.39 30.39 30.39 30.39 30.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 Argonne Area 5 LLW Disposal Unit (NTS)

488

Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

better forecasts, wind energy plant operators and industry professionals can ensure wind turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers....

489

Intra-hour wind power variability assessment using the conditional range metric : quantification, forecasting and applications.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research presented herein concentrates on the quantification, assessment and forecasting of intra-hour wind power variability. Wind power is intrinsically variable and, due to the… (more)

Boutsika, Thekla

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Crude oil prices and petroleum inventories : remedies for a broken oil price forecasting model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The empirical relationship between crude oil prices and petroleum inventories has been exploited in a number of short-term oil price forecasting models. Some of the… (more)

Grimstad, Dan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Study and implementation of mesoscale weather forecasting models in the wind industry.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? As the wind industry is developing, it is asking for more reliable short-term wind forecasts to better manage the wind farms’ operations and electricity… (more)

Jourdier, Bénédicte

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is critical for coastal California solar forecasting.   affecting solar irradiance in southern California.   solar  photovoltaic generation (the southern California 

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical energy forecasting Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

of PV energy production using... Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer... , Detlev Heinemann Energy and Semiconductor...

495

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The DOE Wind Program has issued a Notice of Intent for a funding opportunity, tentatively titled Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.

496

Comparison of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US, Canada and Europe  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This article combines and discusses three independent validations of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) multi-day forecast models that were conducted in the US, Canada and Europe. All forecast models are based directly or indirectly on numerical weather prediction (NWP). Two models are common to the three validation efforts – the ECMWF global model and the GFS-driven WRF mesoscale model – and allow general observations: (1) the GFS-based WRF- model forecasts do not perform as well as global forecast-based approaches such as ECMWF and (2) the simple averaging of models’ output tends to perform better than individual models.

Richard Perez; Elke Lorenz; Sophie Pelland; Mark Beauharnois; Glenn Van Knowe; Karl Hemker Jr.; Detlev Heinemann; Jan Remund; Stefan C. Müller; Wolfgang Traunmüller; Gerald Steinmauer; David Pozo; Jose A. Ruiz-Arias; Vicente Lara-Fanego; Lourdes Ramirez-Santigosa; Martin Gaston-Romero; Luis M. Pomares

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st Year Sum. __________ (year)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Name Major Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st) Projected Graduation Date SUBJECT SUBJECT CR. HRS. SUBJECT COURSE # CR. HRS. Advisor Signature Date Student

Barrash, Warren

498

Data transforms with exponential smoothing methods of forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, transforms are used with exponential smoothing, in the quest for better forecasts. Two types of transforms are explored: those which are applied to a time series directly, and those which are applied indirectly to the prediction errors. The various transforms are tested on a large number of time series from the M3 competition, and ANOVA is applied to the results. We find that the non-transformed time series is significantly worse than some transforms on the monthly data, and on a distribution-based performance measure for both annual and quarterly data.

Adrian N. Beaumont

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Abstract--We present new approaches for building yearly and seasonal models for 5-minute ahead electricity load  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

electricity load forecasting. They are evaluated using two full years of Australian electricity load data. We first analyze the cyclic nature of the electricity load and show that the autocorrelation function to building a single yearly model. I. INTRODUCTION PREDICTING the future electricity demand, also called

Koprinska, Irena

500

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Carolina García-Martos; Julio Rodríguez; María Jesús Sánchez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z