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1

12-32021E2_Forecast  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

2

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

4

Model documentation: electricity market module. [15 year forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This report documents the electricity market model. This model is a component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), the energy market model used to provide projections of energy markets up to 15 years into the future. The electricity market model was developed by the Supply Analysis and Integration Branch as part of building the larger system. This report is written for an audience consisting of mathematical economists, statisticians, operations research analysts, and utility planners. This report contains an overview and a mathematical specification of the electricity market module. It includes a description of the model logic and the individual subroutines in the computer code. A companion document Intermediate Future Forecasting System: Executive Summary (DOE/EIA-430) provides an overview of the components in IFFS and their linkages. 22 figures, 2 tables.

Sanders, R.C.; Murphy, F.H.

1984-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquas Pea Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

6

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...

Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Three Years of Operational Prediction of Forecast Skill at NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In real time since 1990, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) has been running a system to predict the forecast skill of the medium-range forecasts produced by the NMC global spectral model. The predictors used are the agreement of an ...

Richard L. Wobus; Eugenia Kalnay

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

The possible reasons for the misrepresented long-term climate trends in the seasonal forecasts of HFP2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-year multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin

12

Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS  

SciTech Connect

This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

Thomas, L.C.

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics ...

Arindam Chakraborty

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

15

Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled oceanatmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction Xing, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initiali- zation to improve the seasonal climate forecasts. We present a first look at the capability

Pan, Ming

17

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Eighth Electric Utility Forecasting Symposium in Baltimore,Development of a Residential Forecasting Database. Lawrenceand Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1.

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Consensus forecast of U. S. energy supply and demand to the year 2000  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Methods used in forecasting energy supply and demand are described, and recent forecasts are reviewed briefly. Forecasts to the year 2000 are displayed in tables and graphs and are used to prepare consensus forecasts for each form of fuel and energy supply. Fuel demand and energy use by consuming sector are tabulated for 1972 and 1975 for the various fuel forms. The distribution of energy consumption by use sector, as projected for the years 1985 and 2000 in the ERDA-48 planning report (Scenario V), is normalized to match the consensus energy supply forecasts. The results are tabulated listing future demand for each fuel and energy form by each major energy-use category. Recent estimates of U.S. energy resources are also reviewed briefly and are presented in tables for each fuel and energy form. The outlook for fossil fuel resources to the year 2040, as developed by the Institute for Energy Analysis at the Oak Ridge Associated Universities, is also presented.

Lane, J.A.

1976-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Consensus forecast of U. S. electricity supply and demand to the year 2000  

SciTech Connect

Recent forecasts of total electricity generating capacity and energy demand as well as for electricity produced from nuclear energy and hydroelectric power are presented in tables and graphs to the year 2000. A forecast of the distribution of type of fuel and energy source that will supply the future electricity demand is presented. Use of electricity by each major consuming sector is presented for 1975. Projected demands for electricity in the years 1985 and 2000, as allocated to consuming sectors, are derived and presented.

Lane, J.A.

1976-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Bias Correction and Forecast Skill of NCEP GFS Ensemble Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation, 2-m Surface Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple bias correction method was used to correct daily operational ensemble week-1 and week-2 precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The study shows some unexpected and striking ...

Yun Fan; Huug van den Dool

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report  

SciTech Connect

This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

24

Thirty-year solid waste generation forecast for facilities at SRS  

SciTech Connect

The information supplied by this 30-year solid waste forecast has been compiled as a source document to the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (WMEIS). The WMEIS will help to select a sitewide strategic approach to managing present and future Savannah River Site (SRS) waste generated from ongoing operations, environmental restoration (ER) activities, transition from nuclear production to other missions, and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) programs. The EIS will support project-level decisions on the operation of specific treatment, storage, and disposal facilities within the near term (10 years or less). In addition, the EIS will provide a baseline for analysis of future waste management activities and a basis for the evaluation of the specific waste management alternatives. This 30-year solid waste forecast will be used as the initial basis for the EIS decision-making process. The Site generates and manages many types and categories of waste. With a few exceptions, waste types are divided into two broad groups-high-level waste and solid waste. High-level waste consists primarily of liquid radioactive waste, which is addressed in a separate forecast and is not discussed further in this document. The waste types discussed in this solid waste forecast are sanitary waste, hazardous waste, low-level mixed waste, low-level radioactive waste, and transuranic waste. As activities at SRS change from primarily production to primarily decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration, the volume of each waste s being managed will change significantly. This report acknowledges the changes in Site Missions when developing the 30-year solid waste forecast.

Not Available

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the Last 25 Years: Then versus Now  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this paper is to review the large strides made in tornado and severe thunderstorm forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS) of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during the last 25 years or so of its existence. The ...

Frederick P. Ostby

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Evaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience ...

David A. Olson; Norman W. Junker; Brian Korty

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Development of a Residential Forecasting Database. Lawrenceand Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1.and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1.

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

30

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the nave method), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

32

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

33

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Prediction Skill and Bias of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction were examined. The CFSv2 was ...

Yan Xue; Mingyue Chen; Arun Kumar; Zeng-Zhen Hu; Wanqiu Wang

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

YEAR 2 BIOMASS UTILIZATION  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) Year 2 Biomass Utilization Final Technical Report summarizes multiple projects in biopower or bioenergy, transportation biofuels, and bioproducts. A prototype of a novel advanced power system, termed the high-temperature air furnace (HITAF), was tested for performance while converting biomass and coal blends to energy. Three biomass fuels--wood residue or hog fuel, corn stover, and switchgrass--and Wyoming subbituminous coal were acquired for combustion tests in the 3-million-Btu/hr system. Blend levels were 20% biomass--80% coal on a heat basis. Hog fuel was prepared for the upcoming combustion test by air-drying and processing through a hammer mill and screen. A K-Tron biomass feeder capable of operating in both gravimetric and volumetric modes was selected as the HITAF feed system. Two oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys that would be used in the HITAF high-temperature heat exchanger were tested for slag corrosion rates. An alumina layer formed on one particular alloy, which was more corrosion-resistant than a chromia layer that formed on the other alloy. Research activities were completed in the development of an atmospheric pressure, fluidized-bed pyrolysis-type system called the controlled spontaneous reactor (CSR), which is used to process and condition biomass. Tree trimmings were physically and chemically altered by the CSR process, resulting in a fuel that was very suitable for feeding into a coal combustion or gasification system with little or no feed system modifications required. Experimental procedures were successful for producing hydrogen from biomass using the bacteria Thermotoga, a deep-ocean thermal vent organism. Analytical procedures for hydrogen were evaluated, a gas chromatography (GC) method was derived for measuring hydrogen yields, and adaptation culturing and protocols for mutagenesis were initiated to better develop strains that can use biomass cellulose. Fly ash derived from cofiring coal with waste paper, sunflower hulls, and wood waste showed a broad spectrum of chemical and physical characteristics, according to American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) C618 procedures. Higher-than-normal levels of magnesium, sodium, and potassium oxide were observed for the biomass-coal fly ash, which may impact utilization in cement replacement in concrete under ASTM requirements. Other niche markets for biomass-derived fly ash were explored. Research was conducted to develop/optimize a catalytic partial oxidation-based concept for a simple, low-cost fuel processor (reformer). Work progressed to evaluate the effects of temperature and denaturant on ethanol catalytic partial oxidation. A catalyst was isolated that had a yield of 24 mole percent, with catalyst coking limited to less than 15% over a period of 2 hours. In biodiesel research, conversion of vegetable oils to biodiesel using an alternative alkaline catalyst was demonstrated without the need for subsequent water washing. In work related to biorefinery technologies, a continuous-flow reactor was used to react ethanol with lactic acid prepared from an ammonium lactate concentrate produced in fermentations conducted at the EERC. Good yields of ester were obtained even though the concentration of lactic acid in the feed was low with respect to the amount of water present. Esterification gave lower yields of ester, owing to the lowered lactic acid content of the feed. All lactic acid fermentation from amylose hydrolysate test trials was completed. Management activities included a decision to extend several projects to December 31, 2003, because of delays in receiving biomass feedstocks for testing and acquisition of commercial matching funds. In strategic studies, methods for producing acetate esters for high-value fibers, fuel additives, solvents, and chemical intermediates were discussed with several commercial entities. Commercial industries have an interest in efficient biomass gasification designs but are waiting for economic incentives. Utility, biorefinery, pulp and paper, or o

Christopher J. Zygarlicke

2004-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

37

Model Output Statistics Forecasts: Three Years of Operational Experience in the Netherlands  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the Netherlands, one to five day Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts have been used operationally since November 1983. The weather elements predicted are the probability of precipitation, the conditional probability of frozen precipitation,...

C. Lemcke; S. Kruizinga

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...

Linus Magnusson; Erland Klln

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

BARCOT, R.A.

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Journal Article: An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore Details Activities (0) Areas (0) Regions (0) Abstract: Large-scale geological storage of CO2 is likely to bring CO2 plumes into contact with a large number of existing wellbores. Wellbores that no longer provide proper zonal isolation establish a primary pathway for a buoyant CO2-rich phase to escape from the intended storage formation. The hazard of CO2 leakage along these pathways will depend on the rate of leakage. Thus a useful component of a risk assessment framework is a model of CO2 leakage. Predicting the flux of CO2 along a leaking wellbore requires a model of fluid properties and of transport along the leakage

42

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts.com Abstract The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predic and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south

Webster, Peter J.

43

A customisable downscaling approach for local-scale meteorological and air pollution forecasting: Performance evaluation for a year of urban meteorological forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we develop a customisable downscaling approach for local-scale air quality and meteorological forecasting applications, using The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). The CCAM-TAPM system allows ... Keywords: Air pollution modelling, Meteorological modelling, Verification studies

M. Thatcher; P. Hurley

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

during this year, boosted primarily by steady consumption, robust motor vehicle sales, continued business to be more restrained in the rst half of the year (mostly because of reduced spending due to tax increases and higher gasoline prices) and pick up more robustly in the second half of the year and beyond (bolstered

de Lijser, Peter

45

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

47

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Garin-Mu oz, T. : 2002, Forecasting chinas carbon dioxideF. X. : 2001, Elements of Forecasting, South-Western College2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Carson, Richard T.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

49

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

50

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

Templeton, K.J.

1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

51

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

52

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

2011-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

54

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

55

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast volume summary - Volume 1 and Volume 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Solid waste forecast volumes to be generated or received ;at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste program over the life cycle of the site are described in this report. Previous forecast summary reports have covered only a 30-year period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted for this FY 1996 report to ensure consistency with waste volumes reported in the 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans (MYPP). The volume data were collected on a life-cycle basis from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently ship or plan to ship solid waste to the Solid Waste program. The volumes described in detail are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic-mixed (TRU(M)) waste. The volumes reported in this document represent the external volume of the containers selected to ship the waste. Summary level information pertaining to low-level waste (LLW) is described in Appendix B. Hazardous waste volumes are also provided in Appendices E and F but are not described in detail since they will be managed by a commercial facility. Emphasis is placed on LLMW and TRU(M) waste because it will require processing and storage at Hanford Solid Waste`s Central Waste Complex (CORK) prior to final disposal. The LLW will generally be sent directly to disposal. The total baselines volume of LLMW and TRU(M) waste forecast to be received by the Solid Waste program (until 2070) is approximately 100,900 cubic meters. This total waste volume is composed of the following waste categories: 077,080 cubic meters of LLMW; 23,180 cubic meters of TRU(M); 640 cubic meters of greater-than-class III LLMW. This total is about 40% of the total volume reported last year (FY 1995).

Valero, O.J.

1996-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

56

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

57

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

58

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

59

RAINSAT. A One Year Evaluation of a Bispectral Method for the Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting of Precipitation Areas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

RAINSAT uses under data to calibrate GOES visible and infra data in terms of probability of rain. It produces probability of rain maps and 3 h forecast probability of rain maps by extrapolation.

Patrick King; Tsoi-Ching Yip; J. David Steenbergen

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting, Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate modelbased seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate ...

Xing Yuan; Eric F. Wood; Joshua K. Roundy; Ming Pan

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes results from the second phase of the California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project.

2003-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

64

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecastsa quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

66

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

69

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

71

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

72

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

73

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

74

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing: Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting systems are expected to support system operation in cases where wind generation contributes more than a few percent of total generating capacity. This report presents final results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

75

Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R. [and others

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

77

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

78

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

79

Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive OceanAtmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a ...

Andrew Cottrill; Harry H. Hendon; Eun-Pa Lim; Sally Langford; Kay Shelton; Andrew Charles; David McClymont; David Jones; Yuriy Kuleshov

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

82

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramn de Ela; Ren Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.

Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

87

ib:12-07-a Closer than You Think: Latest U.S. CO 2 Pollution Data and Forecasts Show Target Within Reach  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

How about a little good news for a change? Despite Congress failure to enact comprehensive energy and climate legislation, surprising, and underappreciated, progress has been made in reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions during the last few years. In 2011 U.S. emissions of energy-related carbon dioxide were 8.7 percent below 2005 levels despite a 5.5 percent increase in the size of our economy. This remarkable result is due primarily to reduced reliance on coal-fired power plants and increased passenger vehicle efficiency, driven by a combination of policy and market forces. The forecast for 2020, assuming extensions to existing policies that can be reasonably anticipated, is for a further reduction to 10.5 percent below 2005 levels. This contrasts sharply with the forecast made by the Energy Information Agency 7 years ago that emissions would increase by 25 percent between then and 2020, and it puts the 17 percent reduction target embraced by President Obama squarely within reach. Recent Trends U.S. energy-related CO 2 emissions were 5473 million metric

Dan Lashof

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

89

Year 2 Report: Protein Function Prediction Platform  

SciTech Connect

Upon completion of our second year of development in a 3-year development cycle, we have completed a prototype protein structure-function annotation and function prediction system: Protein Function Prediction (PFP) platform (v.0.5). We have met our milestones for Years 1 and 2 and are positioned to continue development in completion of our original statement of work, or a reasonable modification thereof, in service to DTRA Programs involved in diagnostics and medical countermeasures research and development. The PFP platform is a multi-scale computational modeling system for protein structure-function annotation and function prediction. As of this writing, PFP is the only existing fully automated, high-throughput, multi-scale modeling, whole-proteome annotation platform, and represents a significant advance in the field of genome annotation (Fig. 1). PFP modules perform protein functional annotations at the sequence, systems biology, protein structure, and atomistic levels of biological complexity (Fig. 2). Because these approaches provide orthogonal means of characterizing proteins and suggesting protein function, PFP processing maximizes the protein functional information that can currently be gained by computational means. Comprehensive annotation of pathogen genomes is essential for bio-defense applications in pathogen characterization, threat assessment, and medical countermeasure design and development in that it can short-cut the time and effort required to select and characterize protein biomarkers.

Zhou, C E

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

90

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

91

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

92

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

93

Accountability report. Fiscal Year 1996, Volume 2  

SciTech Connect

This report consolidates several performance-related reports into a single financial management report. Information in this report includes information previously reported in the following documents: (1) US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) annual financial statement, (2) NRC Chairman`s annual report to the President and the Congress, and (3) NRC Chairman`s semiannual report to Congress on management decisions and final actions on Office of Inspector General audit recommendations. This report also contains performance measures. The report is organized into the following subtopics: information about the US NRC, program performance, management accountability, and the audited financial statement for Fiscal Year 1996. 19 figs., 4 tabs.

1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

96

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

97

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

98

Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

McNamara, Laura A.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Accuracy of RUC-1 and RUC-2 Wind and Aircraft Trajectory Forecasts by Comparison with ACARS Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As part of an investigation into terminal airspace productivity sponsored by the NASA Ames Research Center, a study was performed at the Forecast Systems Laboratory to investigate sources of wind forecast error and to assess differences in wind ...

Barry E. Schwartz; Stanley G. Benjamin; Steven M. Green; Matthew R. Jardin

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analysts earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy policy initiatives (EIA 1990). Utilities rely on end-use forecasting models in order to assess market trends

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

108

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

109

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

110

Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

112

The development of a statistical forecast model for Changma  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting year-to-year variation in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because predictors are not sufficiently well known and forecast skill by numerical models is poor. In ...

Seung-Eon Lee; Kyong-Hwan Seo

113

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

114

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this forecast gap. Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

115

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

BARCOT, R.A.

2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

116

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

117

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 ­ OCTOBER 12 (greater than 130 percent of climatology.) These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

118

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 ­ OCTOBER 11) of hurricane activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

119

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 ­ SEPTEMBER 26) of hurricane activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

120

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 ­ SEPTEMBER 28 (greater than 130 percent of climatology.) These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 ­ OCTOBER 25%) of hurricane activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

122

Forecasting the market for SO sub 2 emission allowances under uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

This paper deals with the effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on market outcomes for SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices and on electric utility compliance choices. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), which are briefly reviewed here, provide for about twice as many SO{sub 2} allowances to be issued per year in Phase 1 (1995--1999) than in Phase 2. Considering the scrubber incentives in Phase 1, there is likely to be substantial emission banking for use in Phase 2. Allowance prices are expected to increase over time at a rate less than the return on alternative investments, so utilities which are risk neutral, or potential speculators in the allowance market, are not expected to bank allowances. The allowances will be banked by utilities that are risk averse. The Argonne Utility Simulation Model (ARGUS2) is being revised to incorporate the provisions of the CAAA acid rain title and to simulate SO{sub 2} allowance prices, compliance choices, capacity expansion, system dispatch, fuel use, and emissions using a unit level data base and alternative scenario assumptions. 1 fig.

Hanson, D.; Molburg, J.; Fisher, R.; Boyd, G.; Pandola, G.; Lurie, G.; Taxon, T.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

124

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 ­ SEPTEMBER 12 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early

126

Real-Time Multimodel Superensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Systems of 1999  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, Atlantic hurricane forecasts for the year 1999 are addressed. The methodology for these forecasts is called the multimodel superensemble. This statistical method makes use of the real-time forecasts provided by a number of ...

C. Eric Williford; T. N. Krishnamurti; Ricardo Correa Torres; Steven Cocke; Zaphiris Christidis; T. S. Vijaya Kumar

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a portion of the gas price forecast through 2010 can beAEO 2006 reference case forecast to conduct a 25-yearAEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

129

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

130

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

132

Figure 2. Energy Consumption of Vehicles, Selected Survey Years  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Home > Households, Buildings & Industry >Transportation Surveys > Household Vehicles Energy Use > Figure 2 Figure 2. Energy Consumption of Vehicles, Selected Survey Years...

133

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

134

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

135

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

136

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

1 1 YEAR 2011 Males 18 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 2 EJ/EK 2 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 35 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 1 American Indian Female 2 African American Male 3 African American Female 9 Asian Male 0 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 2 Hispanic Female 6 White Male 12 White Female 6 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Information Management & Chief Information Officer, NA-IM As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 18 43.9% 23 56.1% Gender Males Females 4.9% 4.9% 85.4% 4.9% Pay Plan SES EJ/EK NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2.4% 4.9% 7.3% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 14.6% 29.3% 14.6% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male

137

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

4 4 YEAR 2011 Males 21 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 3 EJ/EK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 31 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 5 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American Indian Female 0 African American Male 1 African American Female 2 Asian Male 1 Asian Female 1 Hispanic Male 6 Hispanic Female 10 White Male 13 White Female 10 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Office of General Counsel, NA-GC As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 21 47.7% 23 52.3% Gender Males Females 6.8% 2.3% 2.3% 6.8% 70.5% 11.4% Pay Plan SES EJ/EK EN 03 NN (Engineering) NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) NU (Tech/Admin Support) 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 4.5% 2.3% 2.3% 13.6% 22.7% 29.5% 22.7% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male

138

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

139

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

40 40 YEAR 2011 Males 68 Females 72 YEAR 2011 SES 5 EJ/EK 1 NN (Engineering) 16 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 115 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 1 American Indian Female 2 African American Male 3 African American Female 7 Asian Male 4 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 25 Hispanic Female 26 White Male 35 White Female 37 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Acquistion & Project Management, NA-APM As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 68 48.6% 72 51.4% Gender Males Females 3.6% 0.7% 11.4% 82.1% 2.1% Pay Plan SES EJ/EK NN (Engineering) NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) NU (Tech/Admin Support) 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 5.0% 2.9% 0.0% 17.9% 18.6% 25.0% 26.4% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

143

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013 We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

144

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

6 6 YEAR 2011 Males 7 Females 9 YEAR 2011 SES 1 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 9 GS 15 2 GS 13 2 GS 12 1 GS 11 1 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American Indian Female 0 African American Male 1 African American Female 3 Asian Male 1 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 1 Hispanic Female 0 White Male 4 White Female 6 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator of External Affairs, NA-EA As of Sep 24, 2011 PAY PLAN TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER 7 43.8% 9 56.3% Gender Males Females 6.3% 56.3% 12.5% 12.5% 6.3% 6.3% Pay Plan SES NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) GS 15 GS 13 GS 12 GS 11 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 18.8% 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 25.0% 37.5% Race and Gender American Indian Male American Indian Female African American Male African American Female Asian Male Asian Female Hispanic Male Hispanic Female White Male White Female FY11 Workforce Diversity

145

Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Draft for Public Comment A-1 Appendix A. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation had a tradition of acknowledging the uncertainty of any forecast of electricity demand and developing

146

Verification of RUC 01-h Forecasts and SPC Mesoscale Analyses Using VORTEX2 Soundings  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study uses radiosonde observations obtained during the second phase of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) to verify base-state variables and severe-weather-related parameters calculated from Rapid ...

Michael C. Coniglio

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Property:Building/YearConstruction2 | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

YearConstruction2 YearConstruction2 Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. Year of construction 2 (Year of construction) Pages using the property "Building/YearConstruction2" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) S Sweden Building 05K0001 + 1921 + Sweden Building 05K0002 + 1999 + Sweden Building 05K0003 + 1960 + Sweden Building 05K0004 + 1914 + Sweden Building 05K0005 + 1940 + Sweden Building 05K0006 + 1995 + Sweden Building 05K0007 + 1900 + Sweden Building 05K0008 + 1997 + Sweden Building 05K0009 + 1980 + Sweden Building 05K0010 + 1777 + Sweden Building 05K0011 + 1995 + Sweden Building 05K0012 + 2000 + Sweden Building 05K0013 + 1850 + Sweden Building 05K0014 + 1650 + Sweden Building 05K0015 + 1878 + Sweden Building 05K0016 + 1700 +

148

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Market and STEO Error Forecast Error from 1998 to 2003 (2 Futures Market and STEO Error Forecast Error from 1998to 2003 (Months 13- Forecast from 1998 to 2003 (Months 1-12)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Simulations of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds in Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for M-PACE  

SciTech Connect

Simulations of mixed-phase clouds in short-range forecasts with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model (AM2) for the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) are performed under the DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT), which initializes the climate models with analysis data produced from numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. It is shown that CAM3 significantly underestimates the observed boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and cannot realistically simulate the variations with temperature and cloud height of liquid water fraction in the total cloud condensate based an oversimplified cloud microphysical scheme. In contrast, AM2 reasonably reproduces the observed boundary layer clouds while its clouds contain much less cloud condensate than CAM3 and the observations. Both models underestimate the observed cloud top and base for the boundary layer clouds. The simulation of the boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties is considerably improved in CAM3 when a new physically based cloud microphysical scheme is used. The new scheme also leads to an improved simulation of the surface and top of the atmosphere longwave radiative fluxes in CAM3. It is shown that the Bergeron-Findeisen process, i.e., the ice crystal growth by vapor deposition at the expense of coexisting liquid water, is important for the models to correctly simulate the characteristics of the observed microphysical properties in mixed-phase clouds. Sensitivity tests show that these results are not sensitive to the analysis data used for model initializations. Increasing model horizontal resolution helps capture the subgrid-scale features in Arctic frontal clouds but does not help improve the simulation of the single-layer boundary layer clouds. Ice crystal number density has large impact on the model simulated mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties and needs to be accurately represented in climate models.

Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.

2008-02-29T23:59:59.000Z

150

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

Andr Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

153

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-uses include Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the HVAC module in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed

154

Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LBL-34046 UC-350 Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting. DE-AC03-76SF00098 #12;i ABSTRACT This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which

155

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

156

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

157

Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting: A Historical Perspective  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Techniques that have evolved during the hundred years that scientific severe thunderstorm forecasts have been prepared are reviewed. The early empirical rules developed by Finley, Showalter and Fulks, Fawbush, Miller and Starrett, and others have ...

Joseph T. Schaefer

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

159

Regional load-curve models: scenario and forecast using the DRI model. Final report. [Forecasts of electric power loads in 32 US regions  

SciTech Connect

Regional load curve models were constructed for 32 regions that have been created by aggregating hourly load data from 146 electric utilities. These utilities supply approximately 95% of the electricity consumed in the continental US. The 32 models forecast electricity demands by hour, 8784 regional load forecasts per year. Because projections are made for each hour in the year, contemporaneous forecasts are available for peak demands, megawatt hour demands, load factors, load duration curves, and typical load shapes. The forecast scenario is described and documented in this volume and the forecast resulting from the use of this scenario is presented. The highlights of this forecast are two observations: (1) peak demands will once again become winter phenomena. By the year 2000, 18 of the 32 regions peak in a winter month as compared with the 8 winter peaking regions in 1977. In the heating season, the model is responsive to the number of heating degree-hours, the penetration rate of electric heating equipment, and the rate at which this space conditioning equipment is utilized, which itself is functionally dependent on the level of real electricity prices and real incomes. Thus, as the penetration rate of electric heating equipment increases, winter season demands grow more rapidly than demands in other seasons and peaks begin to appear in winter months; and (2) load factors begin to increase in the forecast, reversing the trend which began in the early 1960s. Nationally, load factors do not leap upwards, instead they increase gradually from .609 in 1977 to .629 in the year 2000. The improvement is more consequential in some regions, with load factors increasing, at times, by .10 or more. In some regions, load factors continue to decline.

Platt, H.D.

1981-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Geothermal: Sponsored by OSTI -- Consensus forecast of U. S....  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGIES LEGACY COLLECTION - Sponsored by OSTI -- Consensus forecast of U. S. energy supply and demand to the year 2000 Geothermal Technologies Legacy Collection...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

162

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Patterns of Land Surface Errors and Biases in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One years worth of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea level pressure) are validated for land-based stations over the entire planet for forecasts ...

David Werth; Alfred Garrett

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new approach for forecasting the typhoon frequency of the western North Pacific (WNP). The year-to-year increase or decrease in typhoon frequency is first forecasted to yield a net typhoon frequency prediction. Five key ...

Ke Fan; Huijun Wang

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The fore- cast traffic data for this study is drawn from

Levinson, David M.

166

Long-term Stock Market Forecasting using Gaussian Processes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Address3 email4 Abstract5 Forecasting stock market prices is an attractive topic to researchers from6 to analyze18 and forecast stock prices and index changes. The accuracy of these techniques is still an19-term predictions in stock prices.32 33 1.2 Motivation34 In stock market, investors need long-term forecasting

de Freitas, Nando

167

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques

Tino, Peter

168

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

171

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt;#12;Copyright ©2012 by WVU Research Corporation Unless otherwise noted, data used for this forecast is from IHS Population 2 GlOBAl OUTlOOk 3 Current Trends 3 Forecast 6 UNITED STATES OUTlOOk 9 Global and United States

Mohaghegh, Shahab

172

Microsoft Word - Melter 2 Celebrates 10 Years.doc  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Media contact: Dean Campbell 803.208.8270 dean.campbell@srs.gov DWPF Melter 2 Celebrates 10 th Anniversary AIKEN, S.C. (March 26, 2013) - What has been called the "heart" of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is celebrating its 10 th anniversary, a full eight years beyond its design life expectancy. Melter 2, the 65-ton, teapot-shaped vessel treats high-level radioactive waste being stored in SRS waste tanks by blending it with a borosilicate frit to form a molten glass mixture. The mixture is poured into stainless steel canisters, which are decontaminated and stored on-site until a permanent storage facility is identified. The melter, only the second in the 17-year history of DWPF, is celebrating 10 years of

173

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

174

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Progress Report on Electricity Price Forecast As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long-term wholesale electricity market price forecast. Staff will review how the forecasts are made and some Forecast Update #12;Process Overview 2 Regional Portfolio Model Electric Demand Forecasting System (Long

Luh, Peter

176

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts, Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

year consumption estimates. DISCUSSION The Importance of Miscellaneous ElectricityConsumption of New Equipment Index kWh/Year MMBtu/Year MMBtu/Year ElectricityConsumption of Equipment in Existing Homes Index kWh/Year MMBtu/Year MMBtu/Year Electricity

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

184

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

185

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

50% <30 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ 2.3% 2.3% 20.5% 50.0% 22.7% 2.3% Age Groups as a Percentage of Workforce 6.8% 38.6% 45.5% 9.1% Education J.D.Ph.DSc.D Degrees Masters Degrees...

187

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 23 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...

Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Forecasters Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Ivn Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

193

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

194

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Male 2 Asian Female 1 Hispanic Male 3 Hispanic Female 6 White Male 50 White Female 11 DIVERSITY GENDER Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Emergency Operations (NA-40)...

195

An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although violent tornadoes comprise only 2.3% of tornado occurrences in the United States, they cause 68% of the fatalities attributed to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Despite these statistics, no attempt is made to forecast or warn of ...

J. R. Colquhoun; D. J. Shepherd

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty in both the phase and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World

197

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY activity is predicted. (as of 10 April 2013) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

198

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY activity is predicted. (as of 4 April 2012) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

199

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2009  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2009 We have reduced our forecast slightly from early June due largely to the development of an El Niño. We continue. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via

200

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 ­ AUGUST 16, 2012 relative to climatology. (as of 3 August 2012) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

F) 6 TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Kansas City Field Office As of March 23, 2013 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY 2.6% 2.6% 28.9% 21.1% 39.5% 5.3% Pay Plan Males 71.1% Females 28.9% Gender AIAN, M...

202

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Administration As of September 26, 2013 TOTAL WORKFORCE Change GENDER PAY PLAN Change DIVERSITY Change 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 3.5% 1.6% 6.8% 0.7% 17.6% 49.5% 2.6% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%...

203

A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present a RELM forecast of future earthquakes in California that is primarily based on the pattern informatics (PI) method. This method identifies regions that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity, and it has been demonstrated to be successful. A PI forecast map originally published on 19 February 2002 for southern California successfully forecast the locations of sixteen of eighteen M>5 earthquakes during the past three years. The method has also been successfully applied to Japan and on a worldwide basis. An alternative approach to earthquake forecasting is the relative intensity (RI) method. The RI forecast map is based on recent levels of seismic activity of small earthquakes. Recent advances in the PI method show considerable improvement, particularly when compared with the RI method using relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams for binary forecasts. The RELM application requires a probability for each location for a number of magnitude bins over a five year period. We have therefore co...

Holliday, J R; Donnelan, A; Rundle, J B; Tiampo, K F; Turcotte, D L; Chen, Chien-chih; Donnelan, Andrea; Holliday, James R.; Rundle, John B.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Years  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

and Technology in and Technology in the National Interest 60 Years of Excellence Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory FY 2012 Annual Report About the Cover: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) engineers Chris Spadaccini (left) and Eric Duoss are shown experimenting with direct ink-writing to create micro- to macroscale structures with extreme precision. The Laboratory is advancing this process and other additive manufacturing technologies to develop new materials with extraordinary properties for use in a wide range of national-security and other applications. About the Laboratory: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was founded in 1952 to enhance the security of the United States by advancing nuclear weapons science and technology. With a talented and dedicated workforce and

205

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

M) 5 Hispanic Female (H, F) 4 White Male (W, M) 25 White Female (W, F) 17 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Livermore Field Office As of March 23, 2013 1.2% 4.7% 3.5%...

206

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Male 2 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 5 Hispanic Female 3 White Male 29 White Female 5 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Associate Administrator for Safety & Health, NA-SH As of Sep 24,...

207

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Male 2 Asian Female 4 Hispanic Male 7 Hispanic Female 5 White Male 53 White Female 19 DIVERSITY Workforce Diversity Nevada Site Office As of September 25, 2010 PAY PLAN TOTAL...

208

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

White Male (W,M) 389 400 2.83% White Female (W,F) 21 19 -9.52% Change DIVERSITY Change Assistant Deputy Administrator for Secure Transportation (NA-15) As of...

209

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

2 Asian Female 0 Hispanic Male 13 Hispanic Female 17 White Male 37 White Female 17 DIVERSITY GENDER Workforce Diversity Sandia Site Office As of March 24, 2012 PAY PLAN TOTAL...

210

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

A Single-Station Approach to Model Output Statistics Temperature Forecast Error Assessment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Error characteristics of model output statistics (MOS) temperature forecasts are calculated for over 200 locations around the continental United States. The forecasts are verified on a station-by-station basis for the year 2001. Error measures ...

Andrew A. Taylor; Lance M. Leslie

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oi lthan the reference case oil price forecast for that year. Inoil futures case where oil prices are based on the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Combining artificial neural networks and statistics for stock-market forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have developed a stock-market forecasting system based on artificial neural networks. The system has been trained with the Standard & Poor 500 composite indexes of past twenty years. Meanwhile, the system produces the forecasts and adjusts ...

Shaun-Inn Wu; Ruey-Pyng Lu

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

M) 12 Hispanic Female (H, F) 11 White Male (W, M) 34 White Female (W, F) 16 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Sandia Field Office As of March 23, 2013 2.5% 8.8% 13.8% 1.3%...

216

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

32 TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER NNSA Production Office (NPO) As of March 23, 2013 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY 1.5% 0.7% 21.9% 21.9% 1.5% 16.8% 32.8% 2.9% Pay Plan Males 65.7% Females 34.3%...

217

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

F) 7 TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Savannah River Field Office As of March 23, 2013 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY 6.5% 12.9% 38.7% 38.7% 3.2% Pay Plan Males 64.5% Females 35.5% Gender AIAN, M AIAN,...

218

YEAR  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

<30 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ 6.1% 21.6% 26.7% 34.5% 10.6% 0.6% Age Groups as a Percentage of Workforce 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 3.5% 30.8% 34.2% 31.5% Education J.D....

219

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Ensemble Reforecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The value of the model output statistics (MOS) approach to improving 610-day and week 2 probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature and precipitation is demonstrated. Retrospective 2-week ensemble reforecasts were computed using a version ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Jeffrey S. Whitaker; Xue Wei

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Relationship between Precipitation Forecast Errors and Skill Scores of Dichotomous Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the sensitivities of the equitable threat score (ETS) and the true skill score (TSS), obtained with a 2 2 contingency table, to continuous precipitation forecast errors are investigated. Two idealized error models are adopted to ...

Nazario Tartaglione

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

223

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

225

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

FREE Name Tags for 1st year Students FREE Selected Course Packs for 2nd year Students  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· FREE Name Tags for 1st year Students · FREE Selected Course Packs for 2nd year Students Process · Discounts & Free Registration to Events · Financial Support for Student Projects & Groups (up to $11,000 each year!) · Discounts on Insurance, Rental Cars, and more! · FREE Legal Advice · Expanded

Liu, Taosheng

228

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

229

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

230

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Forecasts of Monthly 700 mb Height: Verification and Specification Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Twenty-five years (1958-82) of monthly 700 ml, geopotential forecasts produced by the U.S. National Weather Service are verified and then used in a series of temperature specification experiments. The forecasts show skill with respect to ...

John E. Walsh

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Improved Model Output Statistics Forecasts through Model Consensus  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Consensus forecasts are computed by averaging model output statistics (MOS) forecasts based on the limited-area fine-mesh (LFM) model and the nested grid model (NGM) for the three-year period 199092. The test consists of four weather elements (...

Robert L. Vislocky; J. Michael Fritsch

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a validation of the short and medium term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part of the US data set. The short term forecasts that extend up to 6-h ahead are based upon cloud motion derived from consecutive geostationary satellite images. The medium term forecasts extend up to 6-days-ahead and are modeled from gridded cloud cover forecasts from the US National Digital Forecast Database. The forecast algorithms are validated against ground measurements for seven climatically distinct locations in the United States for 1 year. An initial analysis of regional performance using satellite-derived irradiances as a benchmark reference is also presented. (author)

Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, James; Hemker, Karl Jr. [ASRC, University at Albany, Albany, New York (United States); Renne, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado (United States); Hoff, Thomas E. [Clean Power Research, Napa, California (United States)

2010-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

234

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

235

FastForward 2.2: FastForward, Version 2.2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The FastForward, Version 2.2 (FastForward 2.2) software provides estimation of electricity forward prices, volatilities, and correlations with fuel prices and loads based on a multi-region structural model of the power system. FastForward 2.2 is a multi-region structural model that forecasts both spot and forward prices for electric power, on an hourly basis. The software can forecast prices for very long time horizons, exceeding 20 years as needed. The forecasting approach is to develop a detailed set o...

2004-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

236

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

237

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

10621088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgssner, G. , and U. K.2005): Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 ­ OCTOBER 11 percent) of hurricane activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts that we have been issuing in recent years. (as of 28 September 2011) By Philip J

Gray, William

242

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 SEPTEMBER 27, 2011  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 ­ SEPTEMBER 27 percent) of hurricane activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts that we have been issuing in recent years. (as of 14 September 2011) By Philip J

243

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 ­ AUGUST 30, 2012 percent) of activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts that we have been issuing in recent years. (as of 17 August 2012) By Philip J. Klotzbach1

Gray, William

244

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 ­ SEPTEMBER 13 percent) of activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts that we have been issuing in recent years. (as of 31 August 2011) By Philip J. Klotzbach1

Birner, Thomas

245

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 SEPTEMBER 27, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 ­ SEPTEMBER 27 percent) of hurricane activity relative to climatology. These new two-week forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts that we have been issuing in recent years. (as of 14 September 2012) By Philip J

Gray, William

246

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

An Assessment of Thunderstorm Probability Forecasting Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of the 11-year (19831993) skill of subjective 24-h thunderstorm probability forecasts made by staff and students at the State University of New York at Albany is presented. Skill is measured relative to the long-term National Weather ...

Lance F. Bosart; Michael G. Landin

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

=1 Index 1990=1 Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage level 2-3 hrsMiscellaneous Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage level 2-3 hrsMiscellaneous Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage level 2-3 hrs

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

An Assessment of the Quality of Forecast Trajectories  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast and analysis (reference) trajectories were computed from six sites over North America at three altitudes (500, 1000, and 1500 m above ground) twice a day for a one-year period using Nested Grid Model wind fields. The reference ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

1 Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Regions: 2 Microsimulation of Land Use and Transport Patterns in Austin, Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the highest rates of increase. Average energy consumption per household is estimated to fall over 30 time (by.S. energy demands per capita have fallen over54 25% in the last 25 years, the nation`s population increases to increase dramatically -- by nearly 88% in terms of home energy consumption (in the 32 trend scenario

Kockelman, Kara M.

252

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas Oil Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 his 2-3 hrs Usage levelgas Oil Dishwasher End-Use Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usagegas Oil Dishwasher End-Use Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Relative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Retrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 (CFSv2)] shows ...

Qin Zhang; Huug van den Dool

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment  

SciTech Connect

By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.

Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

256

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

257

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

258

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

259

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Ten years (1997 - 2006) of summer (June, July, August) daytime (14 - 00 Z) Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler data for Houston, TX were examined to determine the best radar-derived lightning forecasting predictors. Convective cells were tracked using a modified version of the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm and then correlated to cloud-to-ground lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Combinations of three radar reflectivity values (30, 35, and 40 dBZ) at four isothermal levels (-10, -15, -20, and updraft -10 degrees C) and a new radar-derived product, vertically integrated ice (VII), were used to optimize a radar-based lightning forecast algorithm. Forecasts were also delineated by range and the number of times a cell was identified and tracked by the modified SCIT algorithm. This study objectively analyzed 65,399 unique cells, and 1,028,510 to find the best lightning forecast criteria. Results show that using 30 dBZ at the -20 degrees C isotherm on cells within 75 km of the radar that have been tracked for at least 2 consecutive scan produces the best forecasts with a critical success index (CSI) of 0.71. The best VII predictor was 0.734 kg m-2 on cells within 75 km of the radar that have been tracked for at least 2 consecutive scans producing a CSI of 0.68. Results of this study further suggest that combining the radar reflectivity and VII methods can result in a more accurate lightning forecast than either method alone.

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Forecast Skill of the MaddenJulian Oscillation in Two Canadian Atmospheric Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The output of two global atmospheric models participating in the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2) is utilized to assess the forecast skill of the MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO). The two models are the third ...

Hai Lin; Gilbert Brunet; Jacques Derome

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Table 2. Percent of Households with Vehicles, Selected Survey Years  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Percent of Households with Vehicles, Selected Survey Years " Percent of Households with Vehicles, Selected Survey Years " ,"Survey Years" ,1983,1985,1988,1991,1994,2001 "Total",85.5450237,89.00343643,88.75545852,89.42917548,87.25590956,92.08566108 "Household Characteristics" "Census Region and Division" " Northeast",77.22222222,"NA",79.16666667,82.9015544,75.38461538,85.09615385 " New England",88.37209302,"NA",81.81818182,82.9787234,82,88.52459016 " Middle Atlantic ",73.72262774,"NA",78.37837838,82.31292517,74.30555556,83.67346939 " Midwest ",85.51401869,"NA",90.66666667,90.17094017,92.30769231,91.47286822 " East North Central",82,"NA",88.81987578,89.88095238,91.51515152,90.55555556

263

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve5 extended-range forecast skill?6  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 2 3 4 Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve5 extended-range forecast skill?6 7 The effect of stratospheric resolution on extended-range forecast skill at high latitudes2 in the Southern Hemisphere is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model3 configurations that differ only

Birner, Thomas

265

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Denver Area: Year 2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Denver Area: Year 2 Sajal S. Pokharel, Gary A Alpharetta, Georgia 30022 CRC Project No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Denver Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver has completed the second year of a five-year remote sensing study

Denver, University of

266

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Los Angeles Area: Year 2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Los Angeles Area: Year 2 Sajal S. Pokharel Alpharetta, GA. 30022 Contract No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Los Angeles Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted the second year of a five year remote sensing study

Denver, University of

267

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Chicago Area: Year 2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Chicago Area: Year 2 Peter J. Popp, Gary A Atlanta, Georgia 30346 Contract No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Chicago Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver has completed the first two years of a five-year remote sensing

Denver, University of

268

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

269

Characterization and Simulation of ECBM: History Matching of Forecasting CO2 Sequestration in Marshal County, West Virginia.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

into an unmineable coal seam in the Marshall Country West Virginia. Two coal seams (Pittsburgh and Upper Freeport) are the subject of this pilot CO2 sequestration project. Methane is produced from both coal seams; however CO2 is injected only in the Upper Freeport which includes four wells. The shallower Pittsburgh coal is used

Mohaghegh, Shahab

270

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

H $2,000 hl S z % Reduction in Total Space Conditioning LoadAppliances and Space Conditioning Equipment. Arthur D.3.1 and 3.4. The space conditioning loads are based on the

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Efficiency Choice 6.3 New Home HVAC System Choice 6.4. NewJuly. EPRI. 1990. REEPS 2.0 HVAC Model Logic, prepared by1990. Review of Equipment HVAC Choice Parameters. Cambridge

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

273

Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

Chin, H S

2005-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

274

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY-average forecast, we are calling for an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. (as of 3 June 2013) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past

280

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large

Hamill, Tom

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Bulk flows from galaxy luminosities: application to 2MASS redshift survey and forecast for next-generation datasets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present a simple method for measuring cosmological bulk flows from large redshift surveys, based on the apparent dimming or brightening of galaxies due to their peculiar motion. It is aimed at estimating bulk flows of cosmological volumes containing large numbers of galaxies. Constraints on the bulk flow are obtained by minimizing systematic variations in galaxy luminosities with respect to a reference luminosity function measured from the whole survey. This method offers two advantages over more popular bulk flow estimators: it is independent of error-prone distance indicators and of the poorly-known galaxy bias. We apply the method to the 2MASS redshift survey (2MRS) to measure the local bulk flows of spherical shells centered on the Milky Way (MW). The result is consistent with that obtained by Nusser and Davis (2011) using the SFI++ catalogue of Tully-Fisher distance indicators. We also make an assessment of the ability of the method to constrain bulk flows at larger redshifts ($z=0.1-0.5$) from next generation datasets. As a case study we consider the planned EUCLID survey. Using this method we will be able to measure a bulk motion of $ \\sim 200 \\kms$ of $10^6$ galaxies with photometric redshifts, at the $3\\sigma$ level for both $z\\sim 0.15$ and $z\\sim 0.5$. Thus the method will allow us to put strong constraints on dark energy models as well as alternative theories for structure formation.

Adi Nusser; Enzo Branchini; Marc Davis

2011-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

282

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for normal forces and the one for break drivers, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1, W. Crow2, J. Schaake3  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, US Department of Agriculture 3 National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1. Introduction This study focuses on evaluation of hydrologic remote sensing

Pan, Ming

285

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

287

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 14 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frdric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

304

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

305

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Density Forecasting for Long-Term Peak Electricity Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation. In a long-term context, planners must adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels. Therefore density forecasts (providing estimates of the full probability distributions of the possible future values of the demand) are more helpful than point forecasts, and are necessary for utilities to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty. This paper proposes a new methodology to forecast the density of long-term peak electricity demand. Peak electricity demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties, including underlying population growth, changing technology, economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions (and the timing of those conditions), as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage. It is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day, day of week, time of year, and public holidays. A comprehensive forecasting solution is described in this paper. First, semi-parametric additive models are used to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables, including temperatures, calendar effects and some demographic and economic variables. Then the demand distributions are forecasted by using a mixture of temperature simulation, assumed future economic scenarios, and residual bootstrapping. The temperature simulation is implemented through a new seasonal bootstrapping method with variable blocks. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the probability distribution of annual and weekly peak electricity demand for South Australia since 2007. The performance of the methodology is evaluated by comparing the forecast results with the actual demand of the summer 20072008.

Rob J. Hyndman; Shu Fan

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

312

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

315

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite overall improvements in numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, large short-term forecast errors of sea level pressure and 2-m temperature still occur. This is especially true for the west coast of North America where short-...

Lynn A. McMurdie; Joseph H. Casola

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

318

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

320

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Omaha Area: Year 2,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Omaha Area: Year 2, September 2004 Gary A of the work. #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Omaha Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing study in the Omaha, Nebraska area in September of 2004. The remote

Denver, University of

322

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

323

Value of Real-Time Vegetation Fraction to Forecasts of Severe Convection in High-Resolution Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Near-real-time values of vegetation fraction are incorporated into a 2-km nested version of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model and compared to forecasts from a control run that uses climatological values of ...

Kenneth A. James; David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Table 2.1a Energy Consumption Estimates by Sector, Selected Years ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

40 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Table 2.1a Energy Consumption Estimates by Sector, Selected Years, 1949-2011

325

EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University May 24, 2013 - 2:14pm Addthis News Media Contact (202) 586-4940 SAN DIEGO, Calif. - EcoCAR 2: Plugging In to the Future today named Pennsylvania State University its Year Two winner at the EcoCAR 2013 Competition in San Diego. The 15 universities competing in EcoCAR 2 gathered in Yuma, Arizona last week for six days of rigorous vehicle testing and evaluation on drive quality and environmental impact at General Motors (GM) Desert Proving Ground. From there, the competition moved to San Diego for a second round of judging by automotive industry experts. EcoCAR 2 -- a three-year competition managed by Argonne National Laboratory

326

EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University May 24, 2013 - 2:14pm Addthis News Media Contact (202) 586-4940 SAN DIEGO, Calif. - EcoCAR 2: Plugging In to the Future today named Pennsylvania State University its Year Two winner at the EcoCAR 2013 Competition in San Diego. The 15 universities competing in EcoCAR 2 gathered in Yuma, Arizona last week for six days of rigorous vehicle testing and evaluation on drive quality and environmental impact at General Motors (GM) Desert Proving Ground. From there, the competition moved to San Diego for a second round of judging by automotive industry experts. EcoCAR 2 -- a three-year competition managed by Argonne National Laboratory

327

Economic Forecast Report Economic Outlook and Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

volatile prices such as food and energy, is even softer, averaging around 1% for the year. Inflation should in our last report, the rebound in economic activity has been weak and uninspiring with below-trend formation is far below desired level, the overall trend is positive. Despite these improve- ments, we fear

de Lijser, Peter

328

NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a ...

Robert Rogers; Sim Aberson; Altug Aksoy; Bachir Annane; Michael Black; Joseph Cione; Neal Dorst; Jason Dunion; John Gamache; Stan Goldenberg; Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan; John Kaplan; Bradley Klotz; Sylvie Lorsolo; Frank Marks; Shirley Murillo; Mark Powell; Paul Reasor; Kathryn Sellwood; Eric Uhlhorn; Tomislava Vukicevic; Jun Zhang; Xuejin Zhang

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

330

A Test Bed for New Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Approaches in the Western United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is critical to water resources management in the western United States. Yet, despite the passage of almost 50 years since the development of the first computerized hydrologic simulation models and over 30 years since the ...

Andrew W. Wood; Dennis P. Lettenmaier

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

332

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

333

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

334

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

336

Application of DSM evaluation studies to utility forecasting and planning  

SciTech Connect

Utilities and their customers have made substantial investments in utility demand-side management (DSM) programs. These DSM programs also represent a substantial electricity resource. DSM program performance has been studied more systematically in recent years than over any previous period. DSM program evaluations are traditionally targeted to meet the program manager`s need for information on program costs and performance and, more recently, to verify savings to regulators for incentive awards and lost revenue recovery. Yet evaluations may also be used to produce results relevant to utility forecasting and planning. Applying evaluation results is especially important for utilities with substantial current and future commitments to acquiring demand-side resources. This report discusses the application of evaluation results to utility forecasting and planning. The report has three objectives. First, we identify what demand forecasters, DSM forecasters, and resource planners want to learn from evaluations. Second, we identify and describe the major obstacles and problems associated with applying evaluation results and illustrate many of these issues through a specific evaluation application exercise. Finally, we suggest approaches for addressing these major problems. The report summarizes results from interviews with utilities, regulators, and consultants to determine how the industry currently applies evaluation results in forecasting and planning. The report also includes results from case studies of Sacramento Municipal Utility District and Southern California Edison Company, utilities with large DSM programs and active evaluation efforts. Finally, we draw on a specific application exercise in which we used a set of impact evaluations to revise a utility DSM forecast.

Baxter, L.W.

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the LaBrea Area: Year 2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the LaBrea Area: Year 2 Mitchell J. Williams 140 Alpharetta, Georgia 30022 Contract No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the LaBrea Area: Year 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing

Denver, University of

338

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 2 Sajal S. Pokharel, Gary Alpharetta, Georgia 30022 Contract No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing

Denver, University of

339

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

340

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

342

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

344

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

345

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

346

Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Suppose one were interested in forecasting output growth and inflation across a number of different countries; how would one go about it? What additional variables might help in such forecasting (the oil price comes to mind), and should one also consider... .2. Ideally evaluation is done with a separate sample, though that can often be prohibitively costly, one reason why techniques like cross-validation have considerable appeal. Essentially these first two stages can be considered as trading off bias (build...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa

347

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

348

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (locality), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Table HC1-2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction,  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction, 2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction, Million U.S. Households, 2001 Housing Unit Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Year of Construction RSE Row Factors 1990 to 2001 1 1980 to 1989 1970 to 1979 1960 to 1969 1950 to 1959 1949 or Before 0.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 Total ............................................... 107.0 15.5 18.2 18.8 13.8 14.2 26.6 4.3 Census Region and Division Northeast ...................................... 20.3 1.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.0 8.5 8.8 New England .............................. 5.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.9 2.3 11.3 Middle Atlantic ............................ 14.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.2 6.2 11.2 Midwest ......................................... 24.5 2.8 3.7 3.6 2.9 3.5 8.1 10.2 East North Central ...................... 17.1 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.6 5.5 11.9

355

Carbon Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Operations in  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Operations in Illinois Carbon Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Operations in Illinois November 19, 2012 - 12:00pm Addthis Washington, DC - A project important to demonstrating the commercial viability of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology has completed the first year of injecting carbon dioxide (CO2) from an industrial plant at a large-scale test site in Illinois. Led by the Illinois State Geological Survey, the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project is the first demonstration-scale project in the United States to use CO2 from an industrial source and inject it into a saline reservoir. The CO2 is being captured from an ethanol production facility operated by the Archer Daniels Midland Company in Decatur, Ill., and is being injected

356

Midwest Has Potential to Store Hundreds of Years of CO2 Emissions |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Midwest Has Potential to Store Hundreds of Years of CO2 Emissions Midwest Has Potential to Store Hundreds of Years of CO2 Emissions Midwest Has Potential to Store Hundreds of Years of CO2 Emissions November 16, 2011 - 12:00pm Addthis Washington, DC - Geologic capacity exists to permanently store hundreds of years of regional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in nine states stretching from Indiana to New Jersey, according to injection field tests conducted by the Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP). MRCSP's just-released Phase II final report indicates the region has likely total storage of 245.5 billion metric tons of CO2, mostly in deep saline rock formations, a large capacity compared to present day emissions. While distributed sources such as agriculture, transportation, and home heating account for a significant amount of CO2 emissions in the MRCSP

357

Perils of Long-Range Energy Forecasting: Reflections on Looking Far Ahead  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

! #12;PERILS OF LONG-RANGE ENERGY FORCASTING 255 Fig. 1. Forecasts of the U.S. primary energy notable forecasts of the U.S. primary energy consumption in the year 2000 that were released between have been around energy matters for some time--is the goal of U.S. energy independence charted

Smil, Vaclav

358

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS. VOL. 25. NO. I. FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," IEEE Trans. PWRS, vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996, pp. 397-402. [4Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1 , James H. Taylor2) is presented for the hourly load forecasting of the coming days. In this approach, 24 independent networks

Luh, Peter

360

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

The Challenge of Forecasting Heavy Rain and Flooding throughout the Eastern Region of the National Weather Service. Part II: Forecast Techniques and Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the years, as the recognition and understanding of the structure and climatic frequency of heavy-rain events has expanded, there has been a corresponding improvement in the available forecast guidance on both the national and local level. ...

Harold H. Opitz; Solomon G. Summer; David A. Wert; Warren R. Snyder; Richard J. Kane; Raymond H. Brady; Paul M. Stokols; Stephan C. Kuhl; Gary M. Carter

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in nearreal time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numericalstatistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecastersand between forecasters and usersregarding the meaning of the phrase good (bad) weather forecasts. These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Current Forecast for Sunspot Cycle 24 Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Our prediction for the development of sunspot cycle 23 activity came true; one of the very few to have attained this status. We use the 3?cycle quasi?periodicity observed in the planetary index Ap. We improve our method by including data for 150 years and draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24. Our forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 peak 785 in June 2013; the possibility that next three cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out; the trend may possibly continue for the rest of the 21st century.

H. S. Ahluwalia; R. C. Ygbuhay

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Modern Records of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and a 2000-year Ice-core  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Modern Records of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and a 2000-year Ice-core Modern Records of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and a 2000-year Ice-core Record from Law Dome, Antarctica Introduction This page provides an introduction and links to records of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) over the last 2000 years, emphasizing large data bases each representing currently active stations. Records in recent decades (time period depending on location) have been obtained from samples of ambient-air at remote locations, which represent changing global atmospheric conditions rather than influences of local sources. The longer (2000-year) record is from the Law Dome ice core in Antarctica. The ice-core record has been merged with modern annual data from Cape Grim, Tasmania to provide a 2000-year time series of annual values. A spline function has been fit to the data to provide a continuous time series of

372

FPA 30 year Anniversary Meeting, Washington, 2 December 2009 Slide 1 Status of ITER  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Principal Deputy Director General of the ITER Organization #12;FPA 30 year Anniversary Meeting, Washington Operation Present HQ Building To Aix #12;FPA 30 year Anniversary Meeting, Washington, 2 December 2009 Slide Organization ~440 people by end 2009 · Another 450-500 people in the DAs working on ITER · IO and DA's started

373

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill  

SciTech Connect

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

375

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

376

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

386

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

387

Energy Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Year  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Year Through Energy Efficiency Energy Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Year Through Energy Efficiency January 4, 2006 - 9:08am Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that it has signed a contract to significantly improve energy efficiency at its Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Tex., that will result in an estimated savings of over $2 million per year. This contract will also help the facility, which is part of the nation's nuclear weapons complex, meet a two percent reduction in overall energy usage each year as required by the energy legislation signed by President George W. Bush in August, 2005. "The Pantex Plant plays an important role in America's national security,

388

Modern Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and a 2000-year Ice-core  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) » Ice Cores Carbon Dioxide (CO2) » Ice Cores Modern Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and a 2000-year Ice-core Record from Law Dome, Antarctica Introduction This page provides an introduction and links to records of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the last 2000 years, emphasizing large data bases each representing many currently active stations. Records since about 1960 (depending on location) have been obtained from samples of ambient-air at remote stations, which represent changing global atmospheric concentrations rather than influences of local sources. The longer (2000-year) record is from the Law Dome ice core in Antarctica. The ice-core record has been merged with modern annual data from Cape Grim, Tasmania to provide a 2000-year record ending with the most recent data. A

389

Comparison of Energy Information Administration and Bonneville Power Administration load forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Comparisons of the modeling methodologies underlying the project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) and the Bonneville Power Administration forecasts are discussed in this paper. This Technical Memorandum is presented in order to reconcile apparent inconsistencies between the forecasts. These represent different purposes for the modeling effort as well as different forecasts. Nonetheless, both are appropriate within the context that they are intended. The BPA forecasts are site-specific, detailed, micro-level, yearly forecasts of the demand for electricity. PIES develops regional, macro forecasts and does not contain estimates of the timing of the completion of plants within the period of the forecast. The BPA forecast is intended to be utilized in analyzing a sub-regional capacity expansion program. PIES is a regional energy market-clearing, non-normative model which allows different scenarios to be compared by changing input variables. Clearly, both forecasts are dependent upon the accuracy of the assumptions and input variables included. However, the differing levels of aggregation and objectives require different types of input variables.

Reed, H.J.

1978-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

391

Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAAs global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of (1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.

Singhal, Gaurav

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...

Ye, Q -z

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

A Simulation of Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many prediction schemes, the skill of long-range forecasts of ENSO events depends on the time of year. Such variability could be directly due to seasonal changes in the basic ocean-atmosphere system or due to the state of ENSO itself.

M. K. Davey; D. L. T. Anderson; S. Lawrence

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Building simulation weather forecast files for predictive control strategies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model-Based Predictive Control (MPC) has received significant attention in recent years as a tool for load management in buildings. MPC is based on predicting the response of a system based on knowledge of future inputs, such as weather and occupancy. ... Keywords: EPW files, building simulation, predictive control, weather forecast

Jos. A. Candanedo; ric Paradis; Meli Stylianou

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

A novel 2-D model approach for the prediction of hourly solar radiation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this work, a two-dimensional (2-D) representation of the hourly solar radiation data is proposed. The model enables accurate forecasting using image prediction methods. One year solar radiation data that is acquired and collected between August 1, ...

F. Onur Hocaoglu; Nezih Gerek; Mehmet Kurban

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Solid Waste Program Fiscal Year 1996 Multi-Year Program Plan WBS 1.2.1, Revision 1  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document contains the Fiscal Year 1996 Multi-Year Program Plan for the Solid Waste Program at the Hanford Reservation in Richland, Washington. The Solid Waste Program treats, stores, and disposes of a wide variety of solid wastes consisting of radioactive, nonradioactive and hazardous material types. Solid waste types are typically classified as transuranic waste, low-level radioactive waste, low-level mixed waste, and non-radioactive hazardous waste. This report describes the mission, goals and program strategies for the Solid Waste Program for fiscal year 1996 and beyond.

NONE

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

EcoCAR 2 Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EcoCAR 2 Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University EcoCAR 2 Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University EcoCAR 2 Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University May 24, 2012 - 10:40am Addthis NEWS MEDIA CONTACT (202) 586-4940 Los Angeles, Calif. - EcoCAR 2: Plugging In to the Future today named Mississippi State University its Year One winner at the EcoCAR 2012 Competition in Los Angeles. The 15 universities competing in EcoCAR 2 gathered for six days of judged competition this week with $100,000 in prize money up for grabs. EcoCAR 2, a three-year competition sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), General Motors (GM) and 25 other government and industry leaders, gives students the opportunity to gain real-world, eco-friendly automotive engineering experience while striving to improve the energy efficiency of an already highly-efficient vehicle -

398

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

402

2 million tons per year: A performing biofuels supply chain for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 2 million tons per year: A performing biofuels supply chain for EU aviation NOTE It is understood that in the context of this text the term "biofuel(s) use in aviation" categorically implies "sustainably produced biofuel(s)" according to the EU legislation. June 2011 #12;2 This technical paper was drafted

403

Severe Local Storms Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Knowledge of severe local storms has been increasing rapidly in recent years as a result of both observational studies and numerical modeling experiments. This paper reviews that knowledge as it relates to development of new applications for ...

Robert H. Johns; Charles A. Doswell III

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

1982-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

405

Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Over the past several years, there has been considerable development and application of wind forecasting models. The main purpose of these models is to provide grid operators with the best information available so that conventional power generators can be scheduled as efficiently and as cost-effectively as possible. One of the important ancillary services is reserves, which involves scheduling additional capacity to guard against shortfalls. In a recent paper, Strbac and Kirschen[1] proposed a method to allocate the reserve burden to generators. Although Milligan adapted this technique to wind plants[2], neither of these papers accounts for the wind forecast in the reliability calculation. That omission is rectified here. For the system studied in this paper, we found that a reserve allocation scheme using 1-hour forecasts results in a small allocation of system reserve relative to the rated capacity of the wind power plant. This reserve allocation is even smaller when geographically dispersed wind sites are used instead of a large single site.

Milligan, M. R.

2002-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Predicting daily streamflow using rainfall forecasts, a simple loss module and unit hydrographs: Two Brazilian catchments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of a simple, spatially-lumped, rainfall-streamflow model is compared with that of a more complex, spatially-distributed model. In terms of two model-fit statistics it is shown that for two catchments in Brazil (about 30,000km^2 and 34,000km^2) ... Keywords: Brazil, Hydropower, Rainfall forecasts, River Paran, Streamflow forecasts, Unit hydrographs

I. G. Littlewood; R. T. Clarke; W. Collischonn; B. F. W. Croke

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO forecast plume during the 200211 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Rpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

413

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

414

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

LBL-34046 UC-350 Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the U.S. residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (McMenamin et al. 1992). In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70 % of electricity consumption and 30 % of natural gas consumption in the U.S. residential sector (EIA 1993). Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific

J. Hwang; Francis X. Johnson; Richard E. Brown; James W. Hanford; Jonathan G. Koomey

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

1434 VOLUME 132M O N T H L Y W E A T H E R R E V I E W Ensemble Reforecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts THOMAS M. HAMILL University of Colorado and NOAA­CIRES Climate statistics (MOS) approach to improving 6­10-day and week 2 probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature of the NCEP medium-range forecast model with physics operational during 1998. An NCEP­NCAR reanalysis initial

Hamill, Tom

423

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

424

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

425

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

427

The Role of Monthly Updated Climate Forecasts in Improving Intraseasonal Water Allocation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning (e.g., water allocation) and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. However, the water allocated based on the climate ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Naresh Devineni; Susan Espinueva

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Forecasting Long-Lead Rainfall Probability with Application to Australias Northeastern Coast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors develop a method for the long-lead forecasting of El Nioinfluenced rainfall probability and illustrate it using the economically important prediction, from the beginning of the year, of SeptemberNovember (SON) rainfall in the ...

Allan J. Clarke; Stephen Van Gorder; Yvette Everingham

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Using a Business Process Model as a Central Organizing Construct for an Undergraduate Weather Forecasting Course  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the last five years, the author has employed a business process model as a central organizing construct for the senior-level Forecasting Techniques course at Embry- Riddle Aeronautical University's Daytona Beach, Florida, campus. The process model ...

John M. Lanicci

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasting systems, and related systems for decadal prediction, are crucial in the development of adaptation strategies to climate change. However, despite important achievements in this area in the last 10 years, significant levels of ...

Alberto Arribas; M. Glover; A. Maidens; K. Peterson; M. Gordon; C. MacLachlan; R. Graham; D. Fereday; J. Camp; A. A. Scaife; P. Xavier; P. McLean; A. Colman; S. Cusack

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part I: An Overview  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The complex combination of synoptic- and mesoscale interactions topographic influences, and large population densities poses a multitude of challenging problems to winter weather forecasters throughout the eastern United States. Over the years, ...

George J. Maglaras; Jeff S. Waldstreicher; Paul J. Kocin; Anthony F. Gigi; Robert A. Marine

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output ...

Martyn P. Clark; Lauren E. Hay

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

A Statistical Procedure to Forecast Warm Season Lightning over Portions of the Florida Peninsula  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Sixteen years of cloud-to-ground lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network and morning radiosonde-derived parameters are used to develop a statistical scheme to provide improved forecast guidance for warm season afternoon and ...

Phillip E. Shafer; Henry E. Fuelberg

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind speed measurements from one year from meteorological towers and wind turbines at heights between 20 and 250 m for various European sites are analyzed and are compared with operational short-term forecasts of the global ECMWF model. The ...

Susanne Drechsel; Georg J. Mayr; Jakob W. Messner; Reto Stauffer

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of the Earths climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

437

Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part II: An Operational Perspective of Cyclogenesis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The complex combination of synoptic and mesoscale interactions, topographic influences, and large population densities poses a multitude of challenging problems to winter weather forecasters throughout the eastern United States. Over the years, ...

James J. Gurka; Eugene P. Auciello; Anthony F. Gigi; Jeff S. Waldstreicher; Kermit K. Keeter; Steven Businger; Laurence G. Lee

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple spacetime scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

New Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Potential |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Potential New Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Potential December 21, 2012 - 9:58am Addthis Atlas IV was created by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and includes input from the more than 400 organizations in 43 states and four Canadian provinces that make up the Department’s seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (as shown above). See this map here. Atlas IV was created by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and includes input from the more than 400 organizations in 43 states and four Canadian provinces that make up the Department's seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (as shown above). See this map here.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

EcoCAR 2 Year 1 Winners Announced! | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Year 1 Winners Announced! Year 1 Winners Announced! EcoCAR 2 Year 1 Winners Announced! May 25, 2012 - 1:21pm Addthis EcoCAR 2: Pluggin in to the Future challenges 15 universities across North America to reduce the environmental impact of a 2013 Chevrolet Malibu by minimizing the vehicles' fuel consumption and reducing its emissions while retaining the vehicle's performance, safety, and consumer appeal. | Photo by Myles Regan. EcoCAR 2: Pluggin in to the Future challenges 15 universities across North America to reduce the environmental impact of a 2013 Chevrolet Malibu by minimizing the vehicles' fuel consumption and reducing its emissions while retaining the vehicle's performance, safety, and consumer appeal. | Photo by Myles Regan. Connie Bezanson Education & Outreach Manager, Vehicle Technologies Program

442

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

443

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

444

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

445

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

446

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

447

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

448

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

449

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

450

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

451

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moodys Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

453

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

454

Forecasting new gas users  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Each year hundreds of oil or electric customers call Boston Gas to ask about fuel-switching. What do they look for? A gas utility can boost sales only one way-by gaining new customers. And in today`s slowly growing economy, conservation trends limit growth opportunities. The average household today uses two-thirds the energy of 15 years ago. Commercial and industrial (C/I) customers also conserve. If a gas utility is to grow, a majority of its new customers will likely come from competing fuels, such as oil or electricity.

Lonshteyn, A. [Boston Gas Co., MA (United States)

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)for supplementing solar radiation network data, FinalEstimating incident solar radiation at the surface from geo-

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations. This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This years goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

457

Subscriber Services Complete Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, natural gas and petroleum release greenhouse gases that affect the climate. As we continue to burn fossil years in something else. The United States has heavily funded shale oil, then cut funding off, heavily. Fusion has the advantages of nuclear (fission) power - abundant electricity with no greenhouse gas

458

Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage Potential in U.S. and Portions of Canada Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage Potential in U.S. and Portions of Canada December 1, 2010 - 12:00pm Addthis Washington, DC - There could be as much as 5,700 years of carbon dioxide (CO2) storage potential available in geologic formations in the United States and portions of Canada, according to the latest edition of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Carbon Sequestration Atlas (Atlas III). The updated preliminary estimate, based on current emission rates, documents 1,800 billion to more than 20,000 billion metric tons of CO2 storage potential in saline formations, oil and gas reservoirs, and unmineable coal areas. This suggests the availability of approximately

459

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

460

Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan Page 2 -1 2.0 Program Benefits  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

hydrogen produced from renewable resources and biomass-based fuels. Fuel cells can be used in a wide range States, with various studies projecting up to 900,000 new jobs in the U.S. by 2030­2035.2 Growing

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

GenForecast(26yr)(avg).PDF  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

SLCAIP Historical & Forecast Generation at Plant Total Range of Hydrology 0 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1...

462

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new radiation package, McRad, has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...

J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

Genton, Marc G.

464

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement October 2009 2 example, if a confidence level of 95 percent is specified, then a range of ...

467

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the â??black boxâ? of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the â??price puzzleâ? and the â??liquidity puzzleâ? are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watsonâ??s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

469

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

470

EcoCAR 2 Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals EcoCAR 2 Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals May 20, 2013 - 5:44pm Addthis The University of Washington team works on their vehicle while lifted on a hoist. Teams are working in a garage that is fully equipped with tools that will help them make the most of their time this week. | Photo courtesy of EcoCAR 2. The University of Washington team works on their vehicle while lifted on a hoist. Teams are working in a garage that is fully equipped with tools that will help them make the most of their time this week. | Photo courtesy of EcoCAR 2. A team member from Purdue University works on a line for their vehicle’s high voltage battery. Purdue University’s vehicle is a split parallel hybrid. | Photo courtesy of EcoCAR 2.

471

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Similarity retrieval from time-series tropical cyclone observations using a neural weighting generator for forecasting modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Building a forecasting model for time-series data is a tough but very valuable research topic in recent years. High variation of time-series features must be considered appropriately for an accurate prediction. For weather forecasting, which is continuous, ...

Bo Feng; James N. K. Liu

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Electricity RequirementsElectricity Requirements Council Load Forecast and Portfolio Model Range 10000 15000 and Conservation Council for the Load Forecasting Advisory Committee Friday June 27, 2008 2 Overview Electricity RequirementsElectricity Requirements 5th Plan Non-DSI Price Effects Sales Forecasts 12000 14000

Feinberg, Eugene A.

474

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

C:\\WEBSHARE\\WWWROOT\\forecastactuals\\tables2_18.wpd  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Tables 2 through 18 Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption,...

477

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

The Effect of Horizontal Resolution on Systematic Errors of the GLA Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Systematic prediction errors of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) forecast system are reduced when the higher-resolution (2 2.5) model version is used. Based on a budget analysis of the 200-mb eddy streamfunction, the improvement ...

Tsing-Chang Chen; Jau-Ming Chen; James Pfaendtner

1990-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

A General Analytic Method for Assessing Sensitivity to Bias of Performance Measures for Dichotomous Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Performance measures computed from the 2 2 contingency table of outcomes for dichotomous forecasts are sensitive to bias. The method presented here evaluates how the probability of detection (POD) must change as bias changes so that a ...

Keith F. Brill

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "year forecast 2" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

The Variations of Cn2 Between 4 and 18 km above Sea Level as Measured over 5 Years  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We computed the monthly average backscattered power over a five-year period for the Fleming 50 MHz wind profiler, which is proportional to CN2. We found that in addition to seasonal cycle in CN2 below the tropopause, there was a year-to-year ...

A. S. Frisch; B. L. Weber; D. B. Wuertz; R. G. Strauch; D. A. Merritt

1990-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

483

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

485

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEPs coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in nearreal time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of MissouriColumbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

496

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

497

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

498

Dynamical forecast experiments with a baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We report here on a series of numerical forecast experiments using a baroclinic quasigeostropic open ocean model. A simulation has been carried out to produce a model data set consisting of values of streamfunction and potential vorticity in four dimensions. This data set exhibits quasiturbulent characteristics similar to those of the mesoscale eddy field in the North Western Atlantic. The simulation has been carried out for several model years over many independent synoptic realizations.

Robert N. Miller; Allan R. Robinson

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Evaluation of 2 Rem per Year Occupational Dose Limit: Potential Effects on U.S. Nuclear Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This interim report provides an evaluation of potential impacts on the U.S. nuclear power industry of a reduction in the occupational radiation dose limit from 5 rem per year to 2 rem per year.

2006-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

500

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z