National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for year forecast 2

  1. Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

  2. J2.6 A SPATIAL DATA MINING APPROACH FOR VERIFICATION AND UNDERSTANDING OF ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gruenwald, Le

    FORECASTING Xuechao Yu* 1,2 and Ming Xue 2,3 1 NOAA/NWS/WDTB Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale is placed on meso- scale ensemble forecasting in recent years [e.g., the Storm and Mesoscale Ensemble complicated for mesoscale quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), since QPF is a discontinuous field. Em

  3. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  4. MM5 Aids Forecasters Over the past five years a group in the Atmospheric

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doty, Sharon Lafferty

    Jaeglé's specialty is atmospheric chemistry. Her research deals with analysis and modelingMM5 Aids Forecasters Over the past five years a group in the Atmospheric Sciences department has around the region. (see Page 8) New Faculty Join Atmospheric Sciences In the past year, Atmospheric

  5. Testing Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoeksema, Todd

    becomes more technologically dependent on complex global systems, the potential risk posedTesting Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms J.P. Mason1 is statistically associated with changes in several characteris- tics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar

  6. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  7. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  8. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  9. Credit Points Overview Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manstein, Dietmar J.

    6. Public Presentations / Project Reports (i.e. Retreats) All N/A N/A 10 0 2nd Year Second N/A N/A 5 First N/A N/A 3,33 2nd Year Second N/A N/A 3,33 3rd Year Third N/A N/A 3,33 8. Presentation of Manuscripts at Journal Club All N/A N/A 3 0 1st Year First N/A N/A 1 2nd Year Second N/A N/A 1 3rd Year Third

  10. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  11. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  12. Forecast of solar ejecta arrival at 1 AU from radial speed S. Dasso1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dasso, Sergio

    Forecast of solar ejecta arrival at 1 AU from radial speed S. Dasso1,2 , N. Gopalswamy1 and A. Lara of the major requirements to forecast the space weather conditions in the terrestrial envi- ronment. Several properties, such as the background solar wind speed, and the density of the ejecta. However, only a few

  13. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01

    System (REEPS 2.1) , developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), is a forecasting model

  14. YEAR 2 BIOMASS UTILIZATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christopher J. Zygarlicke

    2004-11-01

    This Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) Year 2 Biomass Utilization Final Technical Report summarizes multiple projects in biopower or bioenergy, transportation biofuels, and bioproducts. A prototype of a novel advanced power system, termed the high-temperature air furnace (HITAF), was tested for performance while converting biomass and coal blends to energy. Three biomass fuels--wood residue or hog fuel, corn stover, and switchgrass--and Wyoming subbituminous coal were acquired for combustion tests in the 3-million-Btu/hr system. Blend levels were 20% biomass--80% coal on a heat basis. Hog fuel was prepared for the upcoming combustion test by air-drying and processing through a hammer mill and screen. A K-Tron biomass feeder capable of operating in both gravimetric and volumetric modes was selected as the HITAF feed system. Two oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys that would be used in the HITAF high-temperature heat exchanger were tested for slag corrosion rates. An alumina layer formed on one particular alloy, which was more corrosion-resistant than a chromia layer that formed on the other alloy. Research activities were completed in the development of an atmospheric pressure, fluidized-bed pyrolysis-type system called the controlled spontaneous reactor (CSR), which is used to process and condition biomass. Tree trimmings were physically and chemically altered by the CSR process, resulting in a fuel that was very suitable for feeding into a coal combustion or gasification system with little or no feed system modifications required. Experimental procedures were successful for producing hydrogen from biomass using the bacteria Thermotoga, a deep-ocean thermal vent organism. Analytical procedures for hydrogen were evaluated, a gas chromatography (GC) method was derived for measuring hydrogen yields, and adaptation culturing and protocols for mutagenesis were initiated to better develop strains that can use biomass cellulose. Fly ash derived from cofiring coal with waste paper, sunflower hulls, and wood waste showed a broad spectrum of chemical and physical characteristics, according to American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) C618 procedures. Higher-than-normal levels of magnesium, sodium, and potassium oxide were observed for the biomass-coal fly ash, which may impact utilization in cement replacement in concrete under ASTM requirements. Other niche markets for biomass-derived fly ash were explored. Research was conducted to develop/optimize a catalytic partial oxidation-based concept for a simple, low-cost fuel processor (reformer). Work progressed to evaluate the effects of temperature and denaturant on ethanol catalytic partial oxidation. A catalyst was isolated that had a yield of 24 mole percent, with catalyst coking limited to less than 15% over a period of 2 hours. In biodiesel research, conversion of vegetable oils to biodiesel using an alternative alkaline catalyst was demonstrated without the need for subsequent water washing. In work related to biorefinery technologies, a continuous-flow reactor was used to react ethanol with lactic acid prepared from an ammonium lactate concentrate produced in fermentations conducted at the EERC. Good yields of ester were obtained even though the concentration of lactic acid in the feed was low with respect to the amount of water present. Esterification gave lower yields of ester, owing to the lowered lactic acid content of the feed. All lactic acid fermentation from amylose hydrolysate test trials was completed. Management activities included a decision to extend several projects to December 31, 2003, because of delays in receiving biomass feedstocks for testing and acquisition of commercial matching funds. In strategic studies, methods for producing acetate esters for high-value fibers, fuel additives, solvents, and chemical intermediates were discussed with several commercial entities. Commercial industries have an interest in efficient biomass gasification designs but are waiting for economic incentives. Utility, biorefinery, pulp and paper, or o

  15. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  16. Year 1 Year 2 Anne 3 Anne 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7Year 3 Year 4 INGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIENINGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIEN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cengarle, María Victoria

    Languages, Sport EP Third Year: - First 2 trimesters of courses (specialization) - Third trimester: researchYear 1 Year 2 Année 3 Année 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7Year 3 Year 4 «« INGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIENINGENIEUR POLYTECHNICIEN »» MASTERMASTER PhDPhD Two to three years of undergraduate studies Education

  17. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  18. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  19. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  20. 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment DATA This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets. The sources are: 1) Observed 2004 Kodiak precipitation totals (inches) from hourly observations. Data for 2004 were obtained from the NOAA National

  1. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  2. Characterization and Simulation of ECBM: History Matching of Forecasting CO2 Sequestration in Marshal County, West Virginia.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    that is capable of matching the methane production history and forecast field potential capacity for CO2 injection characterization and simulation process focused on natural gas production and subsequent CO2 injection) are the subject of this pilot CO2 sequestration project. Methane is produced from both coal seams; however CO2

  3. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  4. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing

  5. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  6. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  7. 1 Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Regions: 2 Microsimulation of Land Use and Transport Patterns in Austin, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    use electricity, natural gas and other energy sources regularly52 for space conditioning and powering1 Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Regions: 2 Microsimulation of Land Use 2030 household energy 26 demands and GHG emissions estimates are compared under five different land use

  8. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    558 YEAR 2013 Males 512 Females 46 YEAR 2013 SES 2 EJEK 2 EN 04 1 NN (Engineering) 11 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 220 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 321 YEAR 2013...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    11 YEAR 2012 Males 78 Females 33 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 9 EN 05 1 EN 04 33 NN (Engineering) 32 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 2...

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    137 YEAR 2013 Males 90 Females 47 YEAR 2013 SES 2 SL 1 EJEK 30 EN 04 30 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 23 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 45 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2013 American Indian...

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    of Employees 14 GENDER YEAR 2012 Males 9 Females 5 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 2 NN (Engineering) 4 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 6 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American Indian Female 0...

  13. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  14. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  15. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  16. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    300 YEAR 2011 Males 109 Females 191 YEAR 2011 SES 9 EJEK 1 NN (Engineering) 2 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 203 NU (TechAdmin Support) 38 NF (Future Ldrs) 47 YEAR 2011 American Indian...

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    16 YEAR 2012 Males 84 Females 32 YEAR 2012 SES 26 EJEK 2 EN 05 9 NN (Engineering) 39 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 30 NU (TechAdmin Support) 10 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    34 YEAR 2012 Males 66 Females 68 YEAR 2012 SES 6 NN (Engineering) 15 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 110 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 1 American Indian Female 2...

  1. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    1 YEAR 2012 Males 30 Females 11 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EN 05 1 EN 04 11 NN (Engineering) 9 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 17 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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  5. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  6. QUARTER Year 2: Understanding Civic Engagement Year 3: Developing Individual Scholarship

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mills, Allen P.

    year, total is 14 units 2 units* of required UH core course + any UH electives not completed by 2nd *Note: 0 units if HNPG151 taken in 2nd year Required UH core courses (0) + any UH electives : 22 Units 2nd year entry cohort: 14 Units 3rd year entry cohort: 4 Units 4th year entry cohort: UH

  7. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  8. Year 2 Report: Protein Function Prediction Platform

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, C E

    2012-04-27

    Upon completion of our second year of development in a 3-year development cycle, we have completed a prototype protein structure-function annotation and function prediction system: Protein Function Prediction (PFP) platform (v.0.5). We have met our milestones for Years 1 and 2 and are positioned to continue development in completion of our original statement of work, or a reasonable modification thereof, in service to DTRA Programs involved in diagnostics and medical countermeasures research and development. The PFP platform is a multi-scale computational modeling system for protein structure-function annotation and function prediction. As of this writing, PFP is the only existing fully automated, high-throughput, multi-scale modeling, whole-proteome annotation platform, and represents a significant advance in the field of genome annotation (Fig. 1). PFP modules perform protein functional annotations at the sequence, systems biology, protein structure, and atomistic levels of biological complexity (Fig. 2). Because these approaches provide orthogonal means of characterizing proteins and suggesting protein function, PFP processing maximizes the protein functional information that can currently be gained by computational means. Comprehensive annotation of pathogen genomes is essential for bio-defense applications in pathogen characterization, threat assessment, and medical countermeasure design and development in that it can short-cut the time and effort required to select and characterize protein biomarkers.

  9. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  10. ASSOCIATE OF SCIENCE IN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY (Suggested 2 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ENG 0101 English Composition I 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 PET 0101 Per Term 3 Total Credits Per Academic Year 34 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERMASSOCIATE OF SCIENCE IN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY (Suggested 2 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    563 YEAR 2012 Males 518 Females 45 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 2 EN 04 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 209 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 335 YEAR 2012...

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 YEAR 2012 Males 64 Females 33 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 30 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 26 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 32 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    78 YEAR 2012 Males 57 Females 21 YEAR 2012 SES 2 SL 1 EJEK 12 EN 04 21 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 24 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male...

  14. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  15. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  16. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  17. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Males 139 Females 88 YEAR 2012 SES 13 EX 1 EJEK 8 EN 05 23 EN 04 20 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 91 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 62 NU (TechAdmin Support) 7 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  18. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    25 Females 10 YEAR 2014 SES 1 EN 04 11 NN (Engineering) 8 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 13 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian...

  19. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2014 Males 81 Females 45 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 SL 1 EJEK 25 EN 04 26 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 23 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 44 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2014 American Indian...

  20. QUARTER Year 2: Understanding Civic Engagement Year 3: Developing Individual Scholarship

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mills, Allen P.

    ) *Note: if HNPG151 taken in 2nd year, total is 14 units 2 units* of required UH core course + any UH electives not completed by 2nd year for continuing UH students taken in 2nd year Required UH core courses (0) + any UH electives not completed by 3rd year

  1. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  2. Carbon Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Carbon Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Operations in Illinois Carbon Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Operations in Illinois November 19,...

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2012 Males 37 Females 7 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 6 EN 05 5 EN 04 7 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 17 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 6 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 2...

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 YEAR 2011 Males 38 Females 9 YEAR 2011 SES 1 EJEK 6 EN 05 5 EN 04 7 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 19 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 7 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 2...

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 YEAR 2013 Males 62 Females 26 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 28 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 25 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 27 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2013 American Indian...

  6. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  7. Forecasting the market for SO sub 2 emission allowances under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, D.; Molburg, J.; Fisher, R.; Boyd, G.; Pandola, G.; Lurie, G.; Taxon, T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper deals with the effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on market outcomes for SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices and on electric utility compliance choices. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), which are briefly reviewed here, provide for about twice as many SO{sub 2} allowances to be issued per year in Phase 1 (1995--1999) than in Phase 2. Considering the scrubber incentives in Phase 1, there is likely to be substantial emission banking for use in Phase 2. Allowance prices are expected to increase over time at a rate less than the return on alternative investments, so utilities which are risk neutral, or potential speculators in the allowance market, are not expected to bank allowances. The allowances will be banked by utilities that are risk averse. The Argonne Utility Simulation Model (ARGUS2) is being revised to incorporate the provisions of the CAAA acid rain title and to simulate SO{sub 2} allowance prices, compliance choices, capacity expansion, system dispatch, fuel use, and emissions using a unit level data base and alternative scenario assumptions. 1 fig.

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2012 Males 149 Females 115 YEAR 2012 SES 17 EX 1 EJEK 7 EN 05 2 EN 04 9 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 56 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 165 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 GS 13 1 YEAR 2012 American...

  9. A global aerosol model forecast for the ACE-Asia field experiment Mian Chin,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chin, Mian

    layer. We attribute this ``missing'' dust source to desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed

  10. ASSOCIATE OF ARTS IN LIBERAL STUDIES (Suggested 2 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ENG 0101 English Composition I 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 GE TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS GE: Arts & Letters 3 GE: Arts & Letters 3 GE: Science & LabASSOCIATE OF ARTS IN LIBERAL STUDIES (Suggested 2 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS FIRST

  11. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 Females 25 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 25 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 25 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 25 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native...

  13. Welcome Back! 2nd Year ECE Student Orientation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prodiæ, Aleksandar

    Welcome Back! 2nd Year ECE Student Orientation September 5, 2014 Professor Shahrokh Valaee for all ECE courses · Provides student counselling support · I teach ECE361H1 Computer Networks I 2nd Year (Administrative Coordinator and Counsellor) Student Advisors Karen Irving Mary Miceli2nd Year ECE Student

  14. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    -9.09% YEAR 2012 2013 SES 1 1 0.00% EN 05 1 1 0.00% EN 04 11 11 0.00% NN (Engineering) 8 8 0.00% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 17 14 -17.65% NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 2...

  15. SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ Year #1 Year #2 Year #3 Year #4

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Suzuki, Masatsugu

    . (if needed) Events During Defense-Semester ECE PhD Time-LinePost-MS 3rd Week Week N - 7 Week N - 1SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ SpringFall Summ Year #1 Year #2 Year #3 Year #4

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  17. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  18. Onboarding Year 2 | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformationJesseworkSURVEY UNIVERSEHowScientificOmbuds Office LocationOn-Line2 Performance

  19. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    YEAR 2012 2013 SES 2 1 -50.00% EN 05 0 1 100.00% EN 04 4 4 0.00% NN (Engineering) 13 12 -7.69% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 13 9 -30.77% NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 1...

  20. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  1. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  2. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  3. NEPS Graduate Survey (2 year) June 2003 Insightrix Inc. 49

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saskatchewan, University of

    /surgical (compared to 50.7% in the 2002 survey), while 16.5% indicated pediatric (compared to 26.1% in the 2002 year) June 2003 Insightrix Inc. 55 2.3.43 Respondents who indicated they were not employed as a nurse who indicated that they were not employed as a nurse within the first year after graduation. 2

  4. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

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    4 YEAR 2012 Males 65 Females 29 YEAR 2012 SES 3 EJEK 5 EN 04 3 NN (Engineering) 21 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 61 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  6. YEAR

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    4 YEAR 2011 Males 21 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 3 EJEK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American...

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    92 YEAR 2012 Males 52 Females 40 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 7 EN 04 13 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 27 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 38 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0...

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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  9. YEAR

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  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    3 YEAR 2012 Males 21 Females 22 YEAR 2012 SES 3 EJEK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 30 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  15. YEAR

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  19. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  20. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  1. Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance Elke Lorenz1, Wolfgang Traunmller2, Gerald Steinmaurer2, Christian Kurz3,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    with postprocessing 5) Ciemat, Spain HIRLAM-CI Bias correction AEMET-HIRLAMx - 0.2°x 0.2° - 1 hour 6) Meteotest

  2. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  3. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  4. YEAR

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  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

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  6. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  7. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  8. Making Forecasts for Chaotic Physical Processes Christopher M. Danforth* and James A. Yorke

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    Making Forecasts for Chaotic Physical Processes Christopher M. Danforth* and James A. Yorke of years into the future [1], as well as the evolution of galactic clusters [2]. Plasma phys- icists use is followed. Given this limitation, the modeler's goal is that some linear combination of ensemble members

  9. YEAR

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  10. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  14. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  15. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  16. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  17. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  18. Innovative Energy Research Grants Program Year 2 Request for Proposals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Firestone, Jeremy

    of interdisciplinary energy researchers to collect preliminary data, to formulate and confirm hypotheses, inexpensive traditional energy reserves. Superimposed on this reality is the fact that world energy demandInnovative Energy Research Grants Program ­ Year 2 Request for Proposals Deadline: 5:00 PM, Monday

  19. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  20. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Females 863 YEAR 2013 SES 102 EX 3 SL 1 EJEK 89 EN 05 41 EN 04 170 EN 03 18 NN (Engineering) 448 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 1249 NU (TechAdmin Support) 76 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 321...

  1. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Females 942 YEAR 2012 SES 108 EX 4 SL 1 EJEK 96 EN 05 45 EN 04 196 EN 03 20 NN (Engineering) 452 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 1291 NU (TechAdmin Support) 106 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 335...

  2. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    SES 1 2 100.00% EJEK 2 2 0.00% EN 04 1 1 0.00% EN 03 1 0 -100.00% NN (Engineering) 12 11 -8.33% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 216 218 0.93% NU (TechAdmin Support) 2...

  3. FREE Name Tags for 1st year Students FREE Selected Course Packs for 2nd year Students

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Taosheng

    · FREE Name Tags for 1st year Students · FREE Selected Course Packs for 2nd year Students · Personalized MVMA Lab Coat at Transition Ceremony for 3rd year Students · Educational Presentations with Dinner to $11,000 each year!) · Discounts on Insurance, Rental Cars, and more! · FREE Legal Advice · Expanded

  4. Guidelines for Siena College Department of Physics 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion and post-tenure review.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and promotion committee(s). 1. Second-year and Fourth-year review committees: These committees will consist specific feedback, the second and fourth year reviews ballot shall list three choices: Support Support-support 2. For second and fourth year reviews, the vote shall be reported in the departmental recommendation

  5. Guidelines for Siena College Department of Biology 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion and post-tenure review.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Fourth-year review committees: These committees will consist of all tenured and tenure-track faculty of reviews and the need to provide more specific feedback, the second and fourth year reviews ballot shallGuidelines for Siena College Department of Biology 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion

  6. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2013 SES 2 2 0.00% EJEK 7 8 14.29% EN 04 11 11 0.00% EN 03 1 1 0.00% NN (Engineering) 23 24 4.35% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 35 32 -8.57% NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 2...

  8. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  9. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26 YEAR

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26 YEAR93

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26 YEAR93

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National26 YEAR9374

  14. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National268 YEAR

  15. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National268 YEAR17

  16. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3 6370-Rev.National268255 YEAR

  17. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3446 YEAR 2014 Males 1626

  18. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3446 YEAR 2014 Males 16268

  19. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3446 YEAR 2014 Males 16268563

  20. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3446 YEAR 2014 Males 162685638

  1. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal GasAdministration Medal01 Sandia4)9 Federal RegisterStorm1 3446 YEAR 2014 Males

  2. Figure 2. Energy Consumption of Vehicles, Selected Survey Years

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun20032,485,331Gas ProvedDec.12 13Cubic2 Figure

  3. ASSOCIATE OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS (Suggested 2 Year Plan)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benos, Panayiotis "Takis"

    CREDITS FIRST YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS ENG 0101 English Composition I 3 ENG 0102 English Composition II 3 Per Academic Year 31 SECOND YEAR, 1ST TERM CREDITS SECOND YEAR, 2ND TERM CREDITS CIST 0262 SystemsASSOCIATE OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS (Suggested 2 Year Plan) FIRST YEAR, 1ST TERM

  4. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2012 2013 SES 2 1 -50.00% EJEK 10 9 -10.00% EN 04 27 24 -11.11% NN (Engineering) 28 24 -14.29% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 29 -6.45% NU (TechAdmin Support) 4...

  6. Year

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1 Table 1.10 Cooling Degree-Days by038.2Natural gas

  7. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  8. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  9. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  10. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  11. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  12. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  13. Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S

    2007-06-01

    By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.

  14. I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and not treat them as an unusual occurrence in the next 20 years. In the long term with cap and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and the development of carbon capture and storage applied to new coal fired generating stations, gas prices will only that biofuels are made from food crops, the discussion is correct that fertilizer demands will drive gas prices

  15. WPN 16-2: Program Year 2016 Grantee Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2016.

  16. WPN 14-2: Program Year 2014 Grantee Allocations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To provide final Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2014.

  17. WPN 13-2: Program Year 2013 Grantee Allocations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To provide Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2013.

  18. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  19. Table HC1-2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction, Million U.S. Households, 2001 Housing Unit Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Year of Construction RSE Row Factors...

  20. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Los Angeles Area: Year 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Los Angeles Area: Year 2 Sajal S. Pokharel Alpharetta, GA. 30022 Contract No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Los Angeles Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted the second year of a five year remote sensing study

  1. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Denver Area: Year 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Denver Area: Year 2 Sajal S. Pokharel, Gary A Alpharetta, Georgia 30022 CRC Project No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Denver Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver has completed the second year of a five-year remote sensing study

  2. Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howard, Tim

    to space weather forecasting T. A. Howard1 and S. J. Tappin2 Received 15 October 2009; revised 27 April with the Earth. Hence the model can be used for space weather forecasting. We present a preliminary evaluation to fully validate it for integration with existing tools for space weather forecasting. Citation: Howard, T

  3. Guidelines for Siena College Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry 2-year review, 4-year review, tenure, promotion and post-tenure review.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Procedures Composition of 2-year, 4-year, tenure and promotion committee(s). 1. Second-year and Fourth-year of reviews and the need to provide more specific feedback, the second and fourth year reviews ballot shall the ballot shall list two choices: Support Non-support 2. For second and fourth year reviews the vote shall

  4. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  5. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  6. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Postdoctoral Fellowship (2-years)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, Charles W.

    flats along with fringing coral reefs through the Myeik archipelago and further off shore. Due to years habitat for endangered species and invaluable ecosystem services to people. It is part of one of largest for tiger, elephant, Gurney's pitta, and other endangered terrestrial species. The region stretches across

  7. Impact of a Revised Convective Triggering Mechanism on CAM2 Model Simulations: Results from Short-Range Weather Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, S; Boyle, J S; Cederwall, R T; Potter, G L; Zhang, M; Lin, W

    2004-02-19

    This study implements a revised convective triggering condition in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) model to reduce its excessive warm season daytime precipitation over land. The new triggering mechanism introduces a simple dynamic constraint on the initiation of convection that emulates the collective effects of lower level moistening and upward motion of the large-scale circulation. It requires a positive contribution from the large-scale advection of temperature and moisture to the existing positive Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for model convection to start. In contrast, the original convection triggering function in CAM2 assumes that convection is triggered whenever there is positive CAPE, which results in too frequent warm season convection over land arising from strong diurnal variation of solar radiation. We examine the impact of the new trigger on CAM2 simulations by running the climate model in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) mode so that more available observations and high-frequency NWP analysis data can be used to evaluate model performance. We show that the modified triggering mechanism has led to considerable improvements in the simulation of precipitation, temperature, moisture, clouds, radiations, surface temperature, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes when compared to the data collected from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its South Great Plains (SGP) site. Similar improvements are also seen over other parts of the globe. In particular, the surface precipitation simulation has been significantly improved over both the continental United States and around the globe; the overestimation of high clouds in the equatorial tropics has been substantially reduced; and the temperature, moisture, and zonal wind are more realistically simulated. Results from this study also show that some systematic errors in the CAM2 climate simulations can be detected in the early stage of model integration. Examples are the extremely overestimated high clouds in the tropics in the vicinity of ITCZ and the spurious precipitation maximum in the east of the Rockies. This has important implications in studies of these model errors since running the climate model in NWP mode allows us to perform a more in-depth analysis during a short time period where more observations are available and different model errors from various processes have not compensated for the systematic errors.

  8. Development and Initial Application of the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research1 and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem)2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nenes, Athanasios

    1 Development and Initial Application of the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research1 and Forecasting-cloud-radiation-precipitation-climate interactions. In this work, a global-through-urban33 WRF/Chem model (i.e., GU-WRF/Chem) has been developed photolysis rate, near-surface temperature, wind speed at 10-m, planetary boundary layer height,40

  9. Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1, W. Crow2, J. Schaake3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pan, Ming

    Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, US Department of Agriculture 3 National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1. Introduction This study focuses on evaluation of hydrologic remote sensing

  10. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  11. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  12. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  13. EMSL Quarterly Highlights Report: 2nd Quarter, Fiscal Year 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Showalter, Mary Ann; Kathmann, Loel E.; Manke, Kristin L.

    2009-05-04

    This report outlines the highlights, staff and user accomplishments, and publications that occured during FY09, 2nd quarter at EMSL.

  14. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  15. Production of the Weather Year for Energy Calculations Version 2 (WYEC2) data files

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.L.; Rymes, M.D. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Representative climate data are important for comparing computer simulations of building designs and their resultant energy needs. In 1969, recognizing a growing interest in such data, ASHRAE Technical Committee 4.2--Weather Information (TC4.2), commissioned development of hourly weather files. The resulting data for 51 locations in the US and Canada are called Weather Year for Energy Calculations (WYEC). In 1988, TC4.2 initiated a major revision of the WYEC files. This effort was limited to adding the 26 Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) hourly weather files to the original WYEC database and making many significant improvements and enhancements to the available data elements. Specifically, the need existed to use a consistent time convention, correct excessive solar radiation values, screen the meteorological data for physically impossible values, provide model estimates of additional solar irradiance and illuminance values, and include data quality indicators. The work of revising and improving the WYEC database was done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The resulting set of 77 revised and corrected hourly weather files are known as WYEC Version 2 or WYEC2 files. This paper describes the NREL production of the WYEC2 data files for ASHRAE.

  16. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  17. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  18. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  19. Talk for 2nd Year CS students: 28 Jan 2011 University of Birmingham INFORMATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sloman, Aaron

    Talk for 2nd Year CS students: 28 Jan 2011 University of Birmingham LIFE and INFORMATION Self.cs.bham.ac.uk/research/projects/cogaff/talks/#talk91 http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/research/projects/cogaff/talks/ 2nd Year CS guest Lecture 28 Jan 2011 are hardest to identify. 2nd Year CS guest Lecture 28 Jan 2011 Slide 2 Last revised: December 21, 2011 #12

  20. 2.4 THIRD AND FOURTH YEARS PROGRAMME STRUCTURE In the Third Year, students on an Honours Degree Programme take course units

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sidorov, Nikita

    2.4 THIRD AND FOURTH YEARS PROGRAMME STRUCTURE In the Third Year, students on an Honours Degree. However, whereas some of these units are more suitable for the Fourth Year of the MMath programme, several flexibility in the Fourth Year. To take a Level 4 course unit in the Third Year, either students must have

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  2. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  3. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Omaha Area: Year 2,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Omaha Area: Year 2, September 2004 Gary A of the work. #12;On-Road Remote Sensing in the Omaha Area: Year 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing study in the Omaha, Nebraska area in September of 2004. The remote

  4. 9:30-10:00am Brittany Jakubiak-2nd year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    9:30-10:00am Brittany Jakubiak- 2nd year Area: Social Title: Just a touch?: An experimental test exploration and positive attributions for a partners ambiguous behavior. 9:00-9:30am Rony Patel- 2nd year Area well-being across time, in a sample of breast cancer patients. 10:45-11:15am Matt Lehet-2nd year Area

  5. University of Kansas Performance Report 2nd Year 1-01-2011 12-31-2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    University of Kansas Performance Report 2nd Year ­ 1-01-2011 ­ 12-31-2011 University of Kansas in first-year learning experiences % chg. FY06 1974 FY07 1884 -4.6% FY08 2063 9.5% FY09 2302 11.6% % chg GOAL 1: Enrich the undergraduate learning experience Indicator 1: Increase participation in first-year

  6. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  7. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Three-year review policy, revised 1/2/2007 1 POLICY ON THREE-YEAR FORMATIVE REVIEW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Yaoqi

    during the spring semester of the third year of their appointments in accordance with the following, with the exceptions noted immediately below. The term "third year" refers to the third full academic year of credit toward tenure are in their "third year" during their second full academic year of appointment

  10. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  11. Academic Year: January and May registration -the 2nd week in May)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Michael

    Academic Year: Faculty: January and May registration - the 2nd week in May) Co-op Canadian Citizen Statement on MUGSI the 3rd week in September. (January registration - the 2nd week in These are the most are required to enroll in the GSA Health Plan. The cost of this plan is 192.00 per academic year. Full

  12. Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K2) Catalog Year:_______________

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K­2) Catalog Year:_______________ education.unlv.edu/afp/702-895-1537CEB 221 2.75 minimum GPA requirement Students must meet the following resident credits UNLV General Education Core Requirements First and Second Year Experience (5cr.) CR DATE

  13. Social Engagement Leads 2-Year-Olds to Overestimate Others' Knowledge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carpenter, M.alinda

    two objects with an adult in turn, 2-year-old children played with a third object the adult could). In Tomasello and Haberl's (2003) study, 12- and 18-month-old infants and an adult played together with twoSocial Engagement Leads 2-Year-Olds to Overestimate Others' Knowledge Henrike Moll, Malinda

  14. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the LaBrea Area: Year 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the LaBrea Area: Year 2 Mitchell J. Williams 140 Alpharetta, Georgia 30022 Contract No. E-23-4 #12;On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the LaBrea Area: Year 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing

  15. On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Denver, University of

    On-Road Remote Sensing of Automobile Emissions in the Phoenix Area: Year 2 Sajal S. Pokharel, Gary in the Phoenix Area: Year 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The University of Denver conducted a five-day remote sensing study in the Phoenix, AZ area in the fall of 1999. The remote sensor used in this study is capable

  16. FORECAST COMBINATION IN REVENUE MANAGEMENT DEMAND FORECASTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Demandness in Rewriting and Narrowing Sergio Antoy1 and Salvador Lucas2 1 Computer Science by a strategy to compute a step. The notion of demandness provides a suitable framework for pre- senting that the notion of demandness is both atomic and fundamental to the study of strategies. 1 Introduction Modern

  17. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  18. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  19. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  20. Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mosier, Richard Matthew

    2011-02-22

    -derived Products....26 1.6 Thesis Objectives and Hypothesis...........................................................................27 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY..................................................................................29 2.1 Radar............................................................................................42 2.4.4 Storm Cell Position Forecast............................................................................44 2.5 Lightning Correlation..............................................................................................45 2.6 CG...

  1. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  2. Progress Report from SSX-FRC ER54604 (renewal, year 2)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Michael R.

    Progress Report from SSX-FRC ER54604 (renewal, year 2) "Novel CT's: Equilibrium, Stability and temporal resolution ion doppler spectroscopy (IDS) on SSX-FRC (as we originally proposed in the renewal her simulations to experiments at SSX-FRC. Our progress and plans for the coming year are outlined

  3. Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st Year Sum. __________ (year)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barrash, Warren

    . HRS. 2nd Year Fall __________ (year) 2nd Year Spr. _________ (year) 2nd Year Sum. _________ (yearName Major Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st Year Sum. __________ (year) SUBJECT COURSE # CR. HRS. SUBJECT COURSE # CR. HRS. SUBJECT COURSE # CR

  4. Engineering Tripos Part IB SECOND YEAR Part IB Paper 8: -ELECTIVE (2)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Talbot, James P.

    influence this estimate. (c) Explain what is meant by an individual's Carbon Footprint. The average footprint for the UK is around 12,000 kg CO2 /year per person. How does your own footprint compare with this

  5. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  6. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  7. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  8. E&R Phase 2 Classes/Block Enrolment **** Please Note that screenshots may not accurately reflect active year ****

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Müller, Jens-Dominik

    /Sub-Plans Tuesday 14 August 2nd year BSW (S) Social Work Monday 20 August 3rd year BDS (S) Dentistry Monday 20 September 2nd year Post-Reg Programme / Midwifery Friday 7 September 3rd year Post-Reg Programme / Midwifery Friday 7 September 2nd year Post-Reg Programme / Nursing Friday 7 September 3rd year Post-Reg Programme

  9. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  10. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  11. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)synthetic hourly radiation,” Solar Energy, vol. 49, pp. 67–for supplementing solar radiation network data,” Final

  12. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  13. FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Connors, Daniel A.

    1 FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014 We are higher than normal, and vertical wind shear throughout the Atlantic basin has been much stronger than-period average values. (as of 31 July 2014) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well

  14. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genton, Marc G.

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

  15. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  16. 2nd Owl Symposium Owls in the Moscow Region: the Results of a 10-year Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2nd Owl Symposium Owls in the Moscow Region: the Results of a 10-year Study O.S. Gr enchenko, S region. 549 #12;2nd Owl Symposium 550 Figure 3.--Distribution of rare owl species in the Moscow region

  17. Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K2) Catalog Year:_______________

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K­2) Catalog Year:_______________ education.unlv.edu/advising/702-895-1537CEB 226 2.75 minimum GPA requirement Students must meet-division credits 30 resident credits UNLV General Education Core Requirements English Composition & Literature

  18. Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K2) Catalog Year:_______________

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K­2) Catalog Year:_______________ education.unlv.edu/afp/702-895-1537CEB 221 2.75 minimum GPA requirement Students must meet the following resident credits UNLV General Education Core Requirements English Composition & Literature Requirement (9cr

  19. 2 million tons per year: A performing biofuels supply chain for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 2 million tons per year: A performing biofuels supply chain for EU aviation NOTE It is understood that in the context of this text the term "biofuel(s) use in aviation" categorically implies "sustainably produced biofuel(s)" according to the EU legislation. June 2011 #12;2 This technical paper was drafted

  20. Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    horizons of up to eight quarters ahead since this is the rele- vant time horizon for central banks when setting interest rates. Table 6 shows the RMSFE, the bias and the hit rate of forecasts based on the VECX*(2,2) model for the longest estimation window...

  1. Jazz Concentration (37 credits + 3) Rev. 6-26-08 Freshman Year Prerequisite course: 2nd semester credits 3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sibille, Etienne

    Jazz Concentration (37 credits + 3) Rev. 6-26-08 Freshman Year ­ Prerequisite course: 2nd semester credits 3 MUS 0100 Fundamentals of Western Music 3 Sample Course Sequence Year 1 1st semester credits 2nd 1 Year 2 1st semester credits 2nd semester credits 16 MUS 0418 Musicianship III 1 MUS 0420

  2. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    the cloud index,” Solar Energy, vol. 81, no. 2, pp. 280 –Cover Indices,” ASME Journal of Solar Energy Engineering (inHorizontal Irradiance,” submitted to Solar Energy, 2012.

  3. Received 17 Oct 2014 | Accepted 6 Mar 2015 | Published 21 Apr 2015 Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu

    ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show and energy sectors worldwide. Climate predictions may exhibit enhanced skill on timescales of years-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability Yoshimitsu Chikamoto1, Axel Timmermann1,2, Jing

  4. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  5. 1. What year did you first start fishing in saltwater? 2. What year did you first start fishing from the shore in saltwater?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1. What year did you first start fishing in saltwater? 19______ 2. What year did you first start fishing from the shore in saltwater? 19______ 3. In the past 12 months, how many days did you go saltwater fishing from: _______ DAYS THE SHORE IN MASSACHUSETTS _______ DAYS A PARTYBOAT IN MASSACHUSETTS

  6. 1. What year did you first start fishing in saltwater? 2. What year did you first start fishing from partyboats in saltwater?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1. What year did you first start fishing in saltwater? 19______ 2. What year did you first start fishing from partyboats in saltwater? 19______ 3. In the past 12 months, how many days did you go saltwater fishing from: _______ DAYS A PARTYBOAT IN MASSACHUSETTS _______ DAYS A PARTYBOAT IN ANOTHER STATE

  7. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  8. Music BA Curriculum (37 credits + 3) Rev. 5-1-08 Freshman Year Prerequisite course: 2nd semester credits 3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sibille, Etienne

    Music BA Curriculum (37 credits + 3) Rev. 5-1-08 Freshman Year ­ Prerequisite course: 2nd semester credits 3 MUS 0100 Fundamentals of Western Music 3 Sample Course Sequence Year 1 1st semester credits 2nd lessons 1 Ensemble 1 Year 3 1st semester credits 2nd semester credits 8 MUS 1904 Senior Seminar 3 Senior

  9. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore »larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  11. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  12. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  13. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  14. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  15. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  16. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  17. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  18. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  19. September 2011 Aug. 31 -Sept. 2 Orientation program for first year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graham, Nick

    for first and second years 17 Fall term ends for fourth year 19 - 23 Pre-clerkship for third year 23 Fall for third year and resumes for fourth year 9 Classes begin for first and second years February 2012 1 Friday 13 Clerkship rotations end for fourth year 30 Winter Term ends May 2012 1 Summer Term begins 11

  20. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  1. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  2. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  3. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  4. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  5. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01

    the following:1. FAPRI3. AO S5. Univariate Time Series7. Composite 2. WASDE4. Futures Market6. Multivariate Time Series The characteristics of each of the aforementioned forecast techniques are explained within the appropriate chapter. Furthermore, it should...

  6. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  7. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  8. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  9. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  10. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  12. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities: Fiscal year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    This report describes procurement procedures and opportunities for small businesses with the Department of Energy (DOE). It describes both prime and subcontracting opportunities of $100,000 and above which are being set aside for 8(a) and other small business concerns. The report contains sections on: SIC codes; procurement opportunities with headquarters offices; procurement opportunities with field offices; subcontracting opportunities with major contractors; 8(a) contracts expiring in FY 1998; other opportunities to do business with DOE; management and operating contractors--expiration dates; Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) staff directory; and small business survey. This document will be updated quarterly on the home page.

  13. The MACHO Project 2nd Year LMC Microlensing Results and Dark Matter Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. R. Pratt; C. Alcock; R. A. Allsman; D. Alves; T. S. Axelrod; A. C. Becker; D. P. Bennett; K. H. Cook; K. C. Freeman; K. Griest; J. Guern; M. J. Lehner; S. L. Marshall; B. A. Peterson; P. J. Quinn; A. W. Rodgers; C. W. Stubbs; W. Sutherland; D. L. Welch

    1996-06-21

    The MACHO Project is searching for galactic dark matter in the form of massive compact halo objects (Machos). Millions of stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), and Galactic bulge are photometrically monitored in an attempt to detect rare gravitational microlensing events caused by otherwise invisible Machos. Analysis of two years of photometry on 8.5 million stars in the LMC reveals 8 candidate microlensing events, far more than the $\\sim1$ event expected from lensing by low-mass stars in known galactic populations. From these eight events we estimate the optical depth towards the LMC from events with $2 < \\that < 200$ days to be $\\tau_2^{200} \\approx 2.9 ^{+1.4}_{-0.9} \\ten{-7}$. This exceeds the optical depth of $0.5\\ten{-7}$ expected from known stars and is to be compared with an optical depth of $4.7\\ten{-7}$ predicted for a ``standard'' halo composed entirely of Machos. The total mass in this lensing population is $\\approx 2^{+1.2}_{-0.7} \\ten{11} \\msun$ (within 50 kpc from the Galactic center). Event timescales yield a most probable Macho mass of $0.5^{+0.3}_{-0.2}\\msun$, although this value is quite model dependent.

  14. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  15. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID for real-time air quality forecasting over the Southeastern United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Yang

    States Ming-Tung Chuang a , Yang Zhang a,*, Daiwen Kang b a Air Quality Forecasting Lab, North Carolina on a three-dimensional air quality model provides a powerful tool to forecast air quality and advise, inaccuracies in simulated meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, and precipitation

  16. The MACHO project 2nd year LMC microlensing results and dark matter implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pratt, M R; Allsman, R A; Alves, D R; Axelrod, T S; Becker, A C; Bennett, D P; Cook, K H; Freeman, K C; Griest, K; Guern, J A; Lehner, M J; Marshall, S L; Peterson, B A; Quinn, P J; Rodgers, A W; Stubbs, C W; Sutherland, W; Welch, D L

    1996-01-01

    The MACHO Project is searching for galactic dark matter in the form of massive compact halo objects (Machos). Millions of stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), and Galactic bulge are photometrically monitored in an attempt to detect rare gravitational microlensing events caused by otherwise invisible Machos. Analysis of two years of photometry on 8.5 million stars in the LMC reveals 8 candidate microlensing events, far more than the \\sim1 event expected from lensing by low-mass stars in known galactic populations. From these eight events we estimate the optical depth towards the LMC from events with 2 < \\that < 200 days to be \\tau_2^{200} \\approx 2.9 ^{+1.4}_{-0.9} \\ten{-7}. This exceeds the optical depth of 0.5\\ten{-7} expected from known stars and is to be compared with an optical depth of 4.7\\ten{-7} predicted for a ``standard'' halo composed entirely of Machos. The total mass in this lensing population is \\approx 2^{+1.2}_{-0.7} \\ten{11} \\msun (within 50 kpc from t...

  17. Options in the Eleventh Year for Interim Standard Offer Number Four Contracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hinrichs, Thomas C.

    1992-03-24

    The Interim Standard Offer Number Four Contracts (ISM), under which most of the geothermal industry is selling power (outside of The Geysers), has an initial ten year period of known fixed energy payments. In the eleventh year, the price goes to the Avoided Cost of the buying utility. The specific contract language is ''Seller will be paid at a rate equal to the utilities' published avoided cost of energy as updated and authorized by the Commission (CPUC)''. The first geothermal contract will reach the end of the initial 10 year period in early 1994, a few will end in 1995 and 1996, and the majority will end in the 1997-2000 period. This is beginning to be focused upon by the utilities, lenders and, of course, the operators themselves. The prime reason for focusing on the issue is that avoided costs of the utilities directly track the delivered cost of the natural gas, and most forecasts are showing that the price of gas in the eleventh year of the contracts will be significantly lower than the last year of the fixed period of energy payments. There are many forums in which the predication of natural gas prices are discussed. In the State of California, the agency responsible for the official forecast is the California Energy Commission. Every two years, the CEC holds hearings for input into its biennial Fuels Report (FR) which establishes the forecast of natural gas prices in addition to other parameters which are used in the planning process. The attached Exhibit I is an excerpt out of the 1991 Fuels Report (FR91). Figure 1 compares the forecast of FR89 and FR91 for the Utility Electric Generation (UEG) in PG&E's service area, and Figure 2, the forecast in the SOCAL service area. The FR91 SOCAL service area forecast indicates a bottoming of the gas price in 1994 at $2.50/mmbtu. Recent prices in 1992 are already at these levels. Converting this to an avoided energy cost brings about a price of 2 to 2-1/2 Cents/kWh. The 1992 energy price in the IS04 contract is 9.3 Cents/kWh.

  18. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  19. Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K2) Catalog Year:_2014-2016

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    Name: ID PPST / / PROGRAM OF STUDY FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (PRE K­2) Catalog Year:_2014-2016 education.unlv.edu/afp/702-895-1537CEB 221 2.75 minimum GPA requirement Students must meet the following resident credits UNLV General Education Core Requirements First and Second Year Experience (5cr.) CR DATE

  20. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  1. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  3. GRADUATE POPULATION: Spring, 2014 First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year DCE Status*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    GRADUATE POPULATION: Spring, 2014 First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year DCE Program ABX = DCE Absentia *DCE status is assigned to post-5th year enrolled students, whether still 2.5 years) VSRCs: Christine Angel Mc Lauren de Riordan mclderio@princeton.edu (7/31/13 ­ 6

  4. GRADUATE POPULATION: Fall, 2014 First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year DCE Status*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh, Jaswinder Pal

    GRADUATE POPULATION: Fall, 2014 First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year DCE Status Nathaniel (Nat) Tabris Daniel Wolt (Grad Rep) *DCE status is assigned to post-5th year enrolled students Program ABX = DCE Absentia ON LEAVE: Josh O'Rourke (Fall 2014; completed 2.5 years) VSRC: Neil Dewar

  5. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  6. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  7. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  10. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  11. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  12. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  13. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  14. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  15. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  16. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2 40 -4.76% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 37 35 -5.41% Females 5 5 0% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 2 2 0% EJEK 5 4 -20.00% EN 05 5 7 40.00% EN 04 6 6 0% EN 03 1 1 0% NN...

  17. 2. Foreword by the Vice-Chancellor 4. Highlights of the year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burton, Geoffrey R.

    and a new Centre for the Arts, besides the refurbishment of many existing buildings. This is a three year

  18. Leap Year 2012: Why We Need February 291 by Brian Handwerk for National Geographic News2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    South Bohemia, University of

    played havoc with everything from religious holidays15 to market times," he said. "Remember the Babylonians--23 were among the first to determine the true length of the solar year. Egypt adopted a leap in the actual solar year. This seemingly small difference made the solar year about 11 minutes too long,30

  19. Photometry of Variable Stars from THU-NAOC Transient Survey I: The First 2 Years

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yao, Xinyu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Tianmeng; Chen, Juncheng; Yuan, Wenlong; Mo, Jun; Li, Wenxiong; Jin, Zhiping; Wu, Xuefeng; Nie, JunDan; Zhou, Xu

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we report the detections of stellar variabilities from the first 2-year observations of sky area of about 1300 square degrees from the Tsinghua University-NAOC Transient Survey (TNTS). A total of 1237 variable stars (including 299 new ones) were detected with brightness = 0.1 mag on a timescale from a few hours to few hundred days. Among such detections, we tentatively identified 661 RR Lyrae stars, 431 binaries, 72 Semiregular pulsators, 29 Mira stars, 11 slow irregular variables, 11 RS Canum Venaticorum stars, 7 Gamma Doradus stars, 5 long period variables, 3 W Virginis stars, 3 Delta Scuti stars, 2 Anomalous Cepheids, 1 Cepheid, and 1 nove-like star based on their time-series variability index Js and their phased diagrams. Moreover, we found that 14 RR Lyrae stars show the Blazhko effect and 67 contact eclipsing binaries exhibit the O'Connell effect. Since the period and amplitude of light variations of RR Lyrae variables depend on their chemical compositions, their photometric observations ...

  20. Biomass Commercialization Prospects the Next 2 to 5 Years; BIOMASS COLLOQUIES 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hettenhaus, J. R.; Wooley, R.; Wiselogel, A.

    2000-10-12

    A series of four colloquies held in the first quarter of 2000 examined the expected development of biomass commercialization in the next 2 to 5 years. Each colloquy included seven to ten representatives from key industries that can contribute to biomass commercialization and who are in positions to influence the future direction. They represented: Corn Growers, Biomass Suppliers, Plant Science Companies, Process Engineering Companies, Chemical Processors, Agri-pulp Suppliers, Current Ethanol Producers, Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers, and Enzyme Suppliers. Others attending included representatives from the National Renewable Energy Lab., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fuels Development, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, environmental groups, grower organizations, and members of the financial and economic development community. The informal discussions resulted in improved awareness of the current state, future possibilit ies, and actions that can accelerate commercialization. Biomass commercialization on a large scale has four common issues: (1) Feedstock availability from growers; (2) Large-scale collection and storage; (3) An economic process; (4) Market demand for the product.

  1. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  2. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  3. Vol. XXXVII, No. 2 December 2014 New Mexico, entering its fifth straight year of severe drought, can take some solace

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hanley, Kathryn A.

    Vol. XXXVII, No. 2 · December 2014 New Mexico, entering its fifth straight year of severe drought participants attending New Mexico's 59th Annual WRRI Water Conference that historical records show the state Mexico recorded eight straight years of below average annual precipitation. In contrast, below average

  4. Study: Sun Will End Earthly Life in 2.8 Billion Years1 The planet will become too hot for even the hardiest microbes.2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    South Bohemia, University of

    the hardiest microbes.2 by Andrew Fazekas for National Geographic3 4 5 The final days of life on Earth years22 alongside the end of plants," the study says.23 24 Only Microbes Left25 By about 2.8 billion years from now, only hardy communities of microbes will be left behind to inherit the Earth

  5. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  6. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  7. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  8. Geek-Up[3.4.2011]: 3,000+ MW and 2,500 Year-Old Greek Pottery

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Bonneville Power Administration celebrates big windy milestone and researchers SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory study the surfaces of 2,500 year old Greek pottery -- all in this week's Geek-Up.

  9. MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage the control of a wind power plant, possibly consisting of many individual wind turbines. The goal. INTRODUCTION Today, wind power is the most important renewable energy source. For the years to come, many

  10. A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McLeod, Dennis

    A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake J. B. Rundle In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake

  11. Status of the ATLAS Liquid Argon Calorimeter; Performance after 2 years of LHC operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AbouZeid, H; The ATLAS collaboration

    2012-01-01

    The ATLAS experiment is designed to study the proton-proton collisions produced at the Large Hadron Collider(LHC) at CERN. Liquid argon sampling calorimeters are used for all electromagnetic calorimetry covering the pseudo-rapidity region up to 3.2, as well as for hadronic calorimetry in the range 1.4-4.9. The electromagnetic calorimeters use lead as passive material and are characterized by an accordion geometry that allows a fast and uniform azimuthal response without any gap. Copper and tungsten were chosen as passive material for the hadronic calorimetry; whereas a classic plate geometry was adopted at large polar angles, an innovative one based on cylindrical electrodes with thin argon gaps was designed for the coverage at low angles, where the particles flow is higher. All detectors are housed in three cryostats kept at about 87 K. After installation in 2004-2006, the calorimeters were extensively commissioned over the three years period prior to first collisions in 2009, using cosmic rays and single LH...

  12. Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paoli, Christophe; Muselli, Marc; Nivet, Marie-Laure [University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE, Corte (France); Voyant, Cyril [University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE, Corte (France); Hospital of Castelluccio, Radiotherapy Unit, Ajaccio (France)

    2010-12-15

    In this paper, we present an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the renewable energy domain. We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which has been the most used of ANNs architectures both in the renewable energy domain and in the time series forecasting. We have used a MLP and an ad hoc time series pre-processing to develop a methodology for the daily prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. First results are promising with nRMSE {proportional_to} 21% and RMSE {proportional_to} 3.59 MJ/m{sup 2}. The optimized MLP presents predictions similar to or even better than conventional and reference methods such as ARIMA techniques, Bayesian inference, Markov chains and k-Nearest-Neighbors. Moreover we found that the data pre-processing approach proposed can reduce significantly forecasting errors of about 6% compared to conventional prediction methods such as Markov chains or Bayesian inference. The simulator proposed has been obtained using 19 years of available data from the meteorological station of Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France, 41 55'N, 8 44'E, 4 m above mean sea level). The predicted whole methodology has been validated on a 1.175 kWc mono-Si PV power grid. Six prediction methods (ANN, clear sky model, combination..) allow to predict the best daily DC PV power production at horizon d + 1. The cumulated DC PV energy on a 6-months period shows a great agreement between simulated and measured data (R{sup 2} > 0.99 and nRMSE < 2%). (author)

  13. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  14. EcoCAR 2 Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    now as well as be as road-worthy as commercial vehicles by the end of the competition's third year. As each team passed, they entered queues to compete in vehicle tests on the...

  15. An Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collins, Gary S.

    are important for predicting pollutants regulated by National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). NAAQS pollutants, include CO, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, O3, and SO2, are considered deleterious to public health and airAn Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems 1

  16. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  17. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  18. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  19. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  20. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  1. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  2. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  3. Total soil C and N sequestration in a grassland following 10 years of free air CO2 enrichment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Kessel, Chris

    Total soil C and N sequestration in a grassland following 10 years of free air CO2 enrichment C H R, Laboratory of Soil Science and Geology, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 37, 6700 AA Abstract Soil C sequestration may mitigate rising levels of atmospheric CO2. However, it has yet

  4. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB...

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  7. BSc Biology Major: Sample Program CEGEP students with a Science DEC will begin their program in Y2. Any missing science prerequisites (full year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    students, but you might take it in your fourth year (and take an elective in your third year). That said Option 2 Free Elective 7 Free Elective 7 Free Elective 8 Free Elective 8 Honours: In the fourth year, add. Any missing science prerequisites (full year physics, chemistry, calculus, and half-year biology

  8. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  9. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  10. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  11. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  12. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  13. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  14. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  15. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  16. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  17. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  18. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  19. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  20. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  1. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  2. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  3. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  4. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  5. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  6. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  7. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  8. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  9. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  10. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  11. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  12. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  13. Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project Annual Environmental Monitoring Report calendar year 1992: Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    1993-12-31

    This report contains environmental monitoring information for the following UMTRA sites for the 1992 Calendar Year: Lakeview, OR; Lowman, ID; Mexican Hat, UT; Monument Valley, AZ; Rifle, CO; Riverton, WY; Shiprock, NM; Spook, WY; Tuba City, AZ. Each site report contains a site description, compliance summary, environmental program information, environmental radiological and non-radiological program information, water resources protection, and quality assurance information.

  14. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  15. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  16. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  17. The 2nd Fermi GBM Gamma-Ray Burst Catalog: The First Four Years

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    von Kienlin, Andreas; Paciesas, William S; Bhat, P N; Bissaldi, Elisabetta; Briggs, Michael S; Burgess, J Michael; Byrne, David; Chaplin, Vandiver; Cleveland, William; Connaughton, Valerie; Collazzi, Andrew C; Fitzpatrick, Gerard; Foley, Suzanne; Gibby, Melissa; Giles, Misty; Goldstein, Adam; Greiner, Jochen; Gruber, David; Guiriec, Sylvain; van der Horst, Alexander J; Kouveliotou, Chryssa; Layden, Emily; McBreen, Sheila; McGlynn, Sinead; Pelassa, Veronique; Preece, Robert D; Rau, Arne; Tierney, Dave; Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A; Xiong, Shaolin; Younes, George; Yu, Hoi-Fung

    2014-01-01

    This is the second of a series of catalogs of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) observed with the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). It extends the first two-year catalog by two more years, resulting in an overall list of 953 GBM triggered GRBs. The intention of the GBM GRB catalog is to provide information to the community on the most important observables of the GBM detected GRBs. For each GRB the location and main characteristics of the prompt emission, the duration, peak flux and fluence are derived. The latter two quantities are calculated for the 50 - 300 keV energy band, where the maximum energy release of GRBs in the instrument reference system is observed and also for a broader energy band from 10 - 1000 keV, exploiting the full energy range of GBMs low-energy detectors. Furthermore, information is given on the settings and modifications of the triggering criteria and exceptional operational conditions during years three and four in the mission. This second catalog is an official product of the Fermi GBM sci...

  18. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  19. Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    He, D.; Wang, M.

    2000-12-12

    Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fast growth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO{sub 2} emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO{sub 2} emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO{sub 2} emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could reach the current US levels.

  20. CLOUD FRACTION STATISTICS DERIVED FROM 2YEARS OF HIGH SPECTRAL RESOLUTION LIDAR DATA ACQUIRED AT EUREKA, CANADA.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eloranta, Edwin W.

    CLOUD FRACTION STATISTICS DERIVED FROM 2YEARS OF HIGH SPECTRAL RESOLUTION LIDAR DATA ACQUIRED(AHSRL) and the NOAA 8.6 mm wavelength cloud radar (MMCR). Both instruments have operated nearly continuously since Sept 2005. This paper presents a record of cloud cover, cloud altitude and cloud phase derived

  1. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  2. Integrating High Penetrations of PV into Southern California: Year 2 Project Update; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mather, B.; Neal, R.

    2012-08-01

    Southern California Edison (SCE) is well into a five-year project to install a total of 500 MW of distributed photovoltaic (PV) energy within its utility service territory. Typical installations to date are 1-3 MW peak rooftop PV systems that interconnect to medium-voltage urban distribution circuits or larger (5 MW peak) ground-mounted systems that connect to medium-voltage rural distribution circuits. Some of the PV system interconnections have resulted in distribution circuits that have a significant amount of PV generation compared to customer load, resulting in high-penetration PV integration scenarios. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and SCE have assembled a team of distribution modeling, resource assessment, and PV inverter technology experts in order to investigate a few of the high-penetration PV distribution circuits. Currently, the distribution circuits being studied include an urban circuit with a PV penetration of approximately 46% and a rural circuit with a PV penetration of approximately 60%. In both cases, power flow on the circuit reverses direction, compared to traditional circuit operation, during periods of high PV power production and low circuit loading. Research efforts during year two of the five-year project were focused on modeling the distribution system level impacts of high-penetration PV integrations, the development and installation of distribution circuit data acquisition equipment appropriate for quantifying the impacts of high-penetration PV integrations, and investigating high-penetration PV impact mitigation strategies. This paper outlines these research efforts and discusses the following activities in more detail: the development of a quasi-static time-series test feeder for evaluating high-penetration PV integration modeling tools; the advanced inverter functions being investigated for deployment in the project's field demonstration and a power hardware-in-loop test of a 500-kW PV inverter implementing a limited set of advanced inverter functions.

  3. EcoCAR 2 Year 1 Winners Announced! | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    was Mississippi State University. Second Place Overall was The Ohio State University. Third Place Overall was the University of Waterloo. At Wedensday's EcoCAR 2 Finals for...

  4. Concept Feasibility Report for Electroplating Zirconium onto Uranium Foil - Year 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coffey, Greg W.; Meinhardt, Kerry D.; Joshi, Vineet V.; Pederson, Larry R.; Lavender, Curt A.; Burkes, Douglas

    2015-03-01

    The Fuel Fabrication Capability within the U.S. High Performance Research Reactor Conversion Program is funded through the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) NA-26 (Office of Material Management and Minimization). An investigation was commissioned to determine the feasibility of using electroplating techniques to apply a coating of zirconium onto depleted uranium/molybdenum alloy (U-10Mo). Electroplating would provide an alternative method to the existing process of hot roll-bonding zirconium foil onto the U-10Mo fuel foil during the fabrication of fuel elements for high-performance research reactors. The objective of this research was to develop a reproducible and scalable plating process that will produce a uniform, 25 ?m thick zirconium metal coating on U-10Mo foil. In previous work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) established a molten salt electroplating apparatus and protocol to plate zirconium metal onto molybdenum foil (Coffey 2015). During this second year of the research, PNNL furthered this work by moving to the U-10Mo alloy system (90 percent uranium:10 percent molybdenum). The original plating apparatus was disassembled and re-assembled in a laboratory capable of handling low-level radioactive materials. Initially, the work followed the previous year’s approach, and the salt bath composition was targeted at the eutectic composition (LiF:NaF:ZrF4 = 26:37:37 mol%). Early results indicated that the formation of uranium fluoride compounds would be problematic. Other salt bath compositions were investigated in order to eliminate the uranium fluoride production (LiF:NaF = 61:39 mol% and LiF:NaF:KF = 46.5:11.5:42 mol% ). Zirconium metal was used as the crucible for the molten salt. Three plating methods were used—isopotential, galvano static, and pulsed plating. The molten salt method for zirconium metal application provided high-quality plating on molybdenum in PNNL’s previous work. A key advantage of this approach is that plating can be performed under conditions that would greatly reduce the quantity of intermetallics that form at the interface between the zirconium and U-10Mo; unlike roll bonding, the molten salt plating approach would allow for complete coverage of the U-10Mo foil with zirconium. When utilizing the experimental parameters developed for zirconium plating onto molybdenum, a uranium fluoride reaction product was formed at the Zr/U-10Mo interface. By controlling the initial plating potential, the uranium fluoride could be prevented; however, the targeted zirconium thickness (25 ±12.5 ?m) could not be achieved while maintaining 100% coverage.

  5. Effects of compensatory growth on muscle characteristics in 2 year-old beef steers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    3700 pm2 vs 4868 pm2). At slaughter at the end of finishing period, animals of C and CG groups (415, in metabolic activities (138 and 133 nkat/g for LDH ; 0.155 and 0.147 nkat/g for ICDH in ST), in percentages of fiber types (15 and 16 % type 1, 29 and 30 % type IIA, 56 and 54 % type IIB) and in fiber areas (4906 pm

  6. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  7. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  8. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  9. Wadter Resources Data Ohio: Water year 1994. Volume 2, St. Lawrence River Basin and Statewide Project Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-12-31

    The Water Resources Division of the US Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with State agencies, obtains a large amount of data each water year (a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is identified by the calendar year in which it ends) pertaining to the water resources of Ohio. These data, accumulated during many years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the USGS, they are published annually in this report series entitled ``Water Resources Data--Ohio.`` This report (in two volumes) includes records on surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for streamflow-gaging stations, miscellaneous sites, and crest-stage stations; (2) stage and content records for streams, lakes, and reservoirs; (3) water-quality data for streamflow-gaging stations, wells, synaptic sites, and partial-record sites; and (4) water-level data for observation wells. Locations of lake- and streamflow-gaging stations, water-quality stations, and observation wells for which data are presented in this volume are shown in figures ga through 8b. The data in this report represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the USGS and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Ohio. This series of annual reports for Ohio began with the 1961 water year with a report that contained only data relating to the quantities of surface water. For the 1964 water year, a similar report was introduced that contained only data relating to water quality. Beginning with the 1975 water year, the report was changed to present (in two to three volumes) data on quantities of surface water, quality of surface and ground water, and ground-water levels.

  10. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  11. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  13. CO2 stimulation of photosynthesis is not sustained during long-term (12 years) FACE treatments in Liquidambar styraciflua

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeffrey; Jensen, Anna M; Medlyn, Belinda; Norby, Richard J; Tissue, David Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) often increases photosynthetic CO2 assimilation (A) in field studies of temperate tree species, although there is evidence that the increases may decline through time due to biochemical and morphological acclimation, and environmental constraints. Indeed, at the free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) study in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, A was increased in 12-year-old sweetgum trees following two years of ~40% enhancement of CO2. A was re-assessed a decade later to determine if initial enhancement of CO2 was sustained through time. Measurements were conducted at prevailing CO2 and temperature on detached, re-hydrated branches using a portable gas exchange system. Photosynthetic CO2 response curves (A-Ci curves) were contrasted with earlier measurements using consistent leaf photosynthesis model equations. Relationships between maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and foliar nitrogen (N) and chlorophyll content were assessed. In 1999, light-saturated photosynthesis (Asat) for eCO2 treatments was 15.4 0.8 mol m-2 s-1, 22% higher than aCO2 treatments (P<0.01). By 2009, Asat declined to <50% of 1999 values, and there was no longer a significant effect of eCO2 (Asat = 6.9 or 5.7 0.7 mol m-2 s-1 for eCO2 or aCO2, respectively). In 1999, there was no treatment effect on area-based foliar N; however, by 2008, N content in eCO2 foliage was 17% less than in aCO2 foliage. Photosynthetic N use efficiency (Asat:N) was greater in eCO2 in 1999 resulting in greater Asat despite similar N content, but the enhanced efficiency in eCO2 trees was lost as foliar N declined to sub-optimal levels. There was no treatment difference in the declining linear relationships between Jmax or Vcmax with declining N, or in the ratio of Jmax:Vcmax through time. Results suggest that initial enhancement of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 will not be sustained through time if nitrogen becomes limited.

  14. Bidding wind energy exploiting wind speed forecasts Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone Paoletti,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    -ahead generation profile for a wind power producer by exploiting wind speed forecasts provided by a meteorological service. In the con- sidered framework, the wind power producer is called to take part integration in the grid is causing serious problems to transmission and distribution system operators [2]. One

  15. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil, 2. Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Brazil 3.Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR), Brazil, 4. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), Brazil, 5. European Centre for Medium-Range and Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 6. United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), UK, 7. University

  16. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  17. Improving Tropical Cyclogenesis Statistical Model Forecasts through the Application of a Neural Network Classifier

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marzban, Caren

    /National Hurricane Center 11691 SW 17th Street Miami, FL 33165 Email: Christopher.Hennon@noaa.gov #12;2 ABSTRACT networks are able to detect nonlinear patterns in data and can be a very powerful tool for forecasting applications if they are designed and used properly. Although they are a more recent innovation than

  18. Geothermal energy program summary: Volume 2, Research summaries, fiscal year 1988

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-03-01

    The Geothermal Technology Division (GTD) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) is charged with the lead federal role in the research and development (R&D) of technologies that will assist industry in economically exploiting the nation`s vast geothermal resources. The GTD R&D program represents a comprehensive, balanced approach to establishing all forms of geothermal energy as significant contributors to the nation`s energy supply. It is structured both to maintain momentum in the growth of the existing hydrothermal industry and to develop long-term options offering the greatest promise for practical applications. The Geothermal Energy Program Summary for Fiscal Year 1988 is a two-volume set designed to be an easily accessible reference to inform the US geothermal industry and other interested parties of the technological advances and progress achieved in the DOE geothermal program as well as to describe the thrust of the current R&D effort and future R&D directions. This volume, Volume II, contains a detailed compilation of each GTD-funded R&D activity performed by national laboratories or under contract to industrial, academic, and nonprofit research institutions. The Program Summary is intended as an important technology transfer vehicle to assure the wide and timely dissemination of information concerning the department`s geothermal research.

  19. Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, David D.

    production doubled, greatly reducing food shortages, but at high environ- mental cost (1­5). In addition climate change in environ- mental and societal impacts (2, 8). Population size and per capita consumption capita 1 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Uni- versity of Minnesota, 1987 Upper Buford

  20. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  1. Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCEDInstallers/ContractorsPhotovoltaicsState ofSavings for Specific2

  2. Q550 Sports Bursary Application 2014-15 Year: 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th / postgraduate (delete as applicable)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengun, Mehmet Haluk

    Q550 Sports Bursary Application 2014-15 Name: Year: 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th / postgraduate (delete to personally incur participating in University level sport during the academic year 2014-15. Details of expense

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  5. Making Fusion Power Work: Materials Blanket: 150 dpa/5 years, 2.5 MW/m2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of nanometre scale Y2O3 particles: act as He, H sinks, strengthen, reduce creep. Currently only small ­ 2045? Full design and materials ­ 2030 ? ITER could act as test-bed from ~2025... It is nearly 2013 particles: act as He, H sinks, strengthen, reduce creep. Currently only small experimental batches made

  6. Union Carbides 20 years in nuclear energy, part 2

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking With WIPPfinalUnexpected Angular Dependence ofMeasures |part 1 part 2

  7. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  8. Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC, year 2 quarter 2 progress report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lottes, S.A.; Bojanowski, C.; Shen, J.; Xie, Z.; Zhai, Y. (Energy Systems); (Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center)

    2012-06-28

    The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) focus areas at Argonne's Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) initiated a project to support and compliment the experimental programs at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) with high performance computing based analysis capabilities in August 2010. The project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at TFHRC for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. The analysis methods employ well benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water effects on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to improve design allowing for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, CFD analysis of the operation of the wind tunnel in the TFHRC wind engineering laboratory. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of January through March 2012.

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  10. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  11. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  12. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  13. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  14. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  15. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  16. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  17. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  18. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  19. THE GALACTIC CENTER WEATHER FORECAST

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moscibrodzka, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nevada, 4505 South Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154 (United States); Shiokawa, H.; Gammie, C. F. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Dolence, J. C., E-mail: monikam@physics.unlv.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2012-06-10

    In accretion-based models for Sgr A*, the X-ray, infrared, and millimeter emission arise in a hot, geometrically thick accretion flow close to the black hole. The spectrum and size of the source depend on the black hole mass accretion rate M-dot . Since Gillessen et al. have recently discovered a cloud moving toward Sgr A* that will arrive in summer 2013, M-dot may increase from its present value M-dot{sub 0}. We therefore reconsider the 'best-bet' accretion model of Moscibrodzka et al., which is based on a general relativistic MHD flow model and fully relativistic radiative transfer, for a range of M-dot . We find that for modest increases in M-dot the characteristic ring of emission due to the photon orbit becomes brighter, more extended, and easier to detect by the planned Event Horizon Telescope submillimeter Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiment. If M-dot {approx}>8 M-dot{sub 0}, this 'silhouette' of the black hole will be hidden beneath the synchrotron photosphere at 230 GHz, and for M-dot {approx}>16 M-dot{sub 0} the silhouette is hidden at 345 GHz. We also find that for M-dot > 2 M-dot{sub 0} the near-horizon accretion flow becomes a persistent X-ray and mid-infrared source, and in the near-infrared Sgr A* will acquire a persistent component that is brighter than currently observed flares.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  1. Emissions Inventory Report Summary: Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative Code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73) for Calendar Year 2001

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Margorie Stockton

    2003-04-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory is subject to annual emissions-reporting requirements for regulated air contaminants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20.2.73 NMAC), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The applicability of the requirements is based on the Laboratory's potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, or volatile organic compounds. For calendar year 2001, the Technical Area 3 steam plant was the primary source of criteria air pollutants from the Laboratory, while research and development activities were the primary source of volatile organic compounds. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20.2.72 NMAC. Hazardous air pollutant emissions from chemical use for research and development activities were also reported.

  2. IMPROVED ANTIFOAM AGENT STUDY END OF YEAR REPORT, EM PROJECT 3.2.3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lambert, D.; Koopman, D.; Newell, J.

    2011-09-30

    Antifoam 747 is added to minimize foam produced by process gases and water vapor during chemical processing of sludge in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). This allows DWPF to maximize acid addition and evaporation rates to minimize the cycle time in the Chemical Processing Cell (CPC). Improvements in DWPF melt rate due to the addition of bubblers in the melter have resulted in the need for further reductions in cycle time in the CPC. This can only be accomplished with an effective antifoam agent. DWPF production was suspended on March 22, 2011 as the result of a Flammable Gas New Information/(NI) Potential Inadequacy in the Safety Analysis (PISA). The issue was that the DWPF melter offgas flammability strategy did not take into account the H and C in the antifoam, potentially flammable components, in the melter feed. It was also determined the DWPF was using much more antifoam than anticipated due to a combination of longer processing in the CPC due to high Hg, longer processing due to Actinide Removal Process (ARP)/Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) additions, and adding more antifoam than recommended. The resolution to the PISA involved and assessment of the impact of the antifoam on melter flammability and the implementation of a strategy to control additions within acceptable levels. This led to the need to minimize the use of Antifoam 747 in processing beginning in May 2011. DWPF has had limited success in using Antifoam 747 in caustic processing. Since starting up the ARP facility, the ARP product (similar chemically to caustic sludge) is added to the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) at boiling and evaporated to maintain a constant SRAT volume. Although there is very little offgas generated during caustic boiling, there is a large volume of water vapor produced which can lead to foaming. High additions and more frequent use of antifoam are used to mitigate the foaming during caustic boiling. The result of these three issues above is that DWPF had three antifoam needs in FY2011: (1) Determine the cause of the poor Antifoam 747 performance during caustic boiling; (2) Determine the decomposition products of Antifoam 747 during CPC processing; and (3) Improve the effectiveness of Antifoam 747, in order to minimize the amount used. Testing was completed by Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) and Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) researchers to address these questions. The testing results reported were funded by both DWPF and DOE/EM 31. Both sets of results are reported in this document for completeness. The results of this research are summarized: (1) The cause for the poor Antifoam 747 performance during caustic boiling was the high hydrolysis rate, cleaving the antifoam molecule in two, leading to poor antifoam performance. In testing with pH solutions from 1 to 13, the antifoam degraded quickly at a pH < 4 and pH > 10. As the antifoam decomposed it lost its spreading ability (wetting agent performance), which is crucial to its antifoaming performance. During testing of a caustic sludge simulants, there was more foam in tests with added Antifoam 747 than in tests without added antifoam. (2) Analyses were completed to determine the composition of the two antifoam components and Antifoam 747. In addition, the decomposition products of Antifoam 747 were determined during CPC processing of sludge simulants. The main decomposition products were identified primarily as Long Chain Siloxanes, boiling point > 400 C. Total antifoam recovery was 33% by mass. In a subsequent study, various compounds potentially related to antifoam were found using semi-volatile organic analysis and volatile organic analysis on the hexane extractions and hexane rinses. These included siloxanes, trimethyl silanol, methoxy trimethyl silane, hexamethyl disiloxane, aliphatic hydrocarbons, dioctyl phthalate, and emulsifiers. Cumulatively, these species amounted to less than 3% of the antifoam mass. The majority of the antifoam was identified using carbon analysis of the SRAT product (40-80% by ma

  3. Info Session for: All PHAS 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Year UG Students Provided by: UBC Department of Physics & Astronomy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plotkin, Steven S.

    Info Session for: All PHAS 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Year UG Students Provided by: UBC Department Possibilities 11:20 a.m. Salena Li, UG Coordinator 11:25 a.m. Dr. Janis McKenna, 2nd year advisor UG Research Dunning, Yingyu Yao 12:00 p.m. 2nd Year Student Session -- Hennings 201 Honours, Majors, Minors Programs

  4. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  5. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  6. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  8. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  9. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  13. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore »build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  14. PROVISIONAL TERM & VACATION -2014 First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth and Fifth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jarrett, Thomas H.

    January 2014 BSc AUDIOLOGY AND BSc SPEECH-LANGUAGE PATHOLOGY 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 17 Feb 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 17 Feb ­ 04 Apr 13 Jan ­ 04 Apr 14 Apr ­ 13 Jun 21 Jul ­ 29 Aug 08 Sep 2014 13 January 2014 BSc PHYSIOTHERAPY 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 17 Feb ­ 04 Apr 13 Jan ­ 04

  15. Fiscal Year 2012 | 1 FISCAL YEAR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Napp, Nils

    Fiscal Year 2012 | 1 NPR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 #12;12 FISCAL YEAR Fiscal Year 2012 | 2 TABLE Supporters Statement of Financial Position Statement of Activities 3 5 6 7 9 14 15 #12;12 FISCAL YEAR Fiscal the most dynamic and informative content to the air and on NPR.org in accordance with our mission

  16. Fiscal Year 2014 | 1 FISCAL YEAR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Napp, Nils

    Fiscal Year 2014 | 1 NPR ANNUAL REPORT 2014 #12;14 FISCAL YEAR Fiscal Year 2014 | 2 TABLE Supporters Statement of Financial Position Statement of Activities 3 6 7 8 10 15 16 #12;14 FISCAL YEAR Fiscal radio news and stories curated for them. Informing, engaging, inspiring and surprising, it's an entirely

  17. Fourth Year Curriculum Fourth Year (IE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    + 2013/14 Fourth Year Curriculum #12;+ Fourth Year (IE) ! Core ! MIE463F Integrated System Design ! CS Elective (1) #12;+ Fourth Year (ME): Fall ! Core ! MIE491Y Capstone ! Stream Courses (2) ! MIE422F * : Students may take only one of MIE422 and AER525; AER525 has limited enrolment. #12;+ Fourth Year (ME

  18. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  19. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  20. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  1. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  2. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  3. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  4. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  5. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  6. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  7. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  8. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  9. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  11. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  12. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  13. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  14. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  15. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  16. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  17. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  18. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  19. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  20. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting

  1. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  2. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  4. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  5. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  7. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  8. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  9. Table HIST002R_2. Death rates for 113 selected causes by 5-year age groups, race and sex: United States, 1979-98

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hunter, David

    _2. Death rates for 113 selected causes, by 5-year age groups, race and sex: United States, 1979Table HIST002R_2. Death rates for 113 selected causes by 5-year age groups, race and sex: United though the cause-of-death titles may be the same. Deaths rates are per 100,000 population in specified

  10. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  11. Calendar Year 2008 Program Benefits for ENERGY STAR Labeled Products

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Homan, GregoryK; Sanchez, Marla; Brown, RichardE; Lai, Judy

    2010-08-24

    This paper presents current and projected savings for ENERGY STAR labeled products, and details the status of the model as implemented in the September 2009 spreadsheets. ENERGY STAR is a voluntary energy efficiency labeling program operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE), designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Since the program inception in 1992, ENERGY STAR has become a leading international brand for energy efficient products, and currently labels more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, heating, cooling and ventilation equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. ENERGY STAR's central role in the development of regional, national and international energy programs necessitates an open process whereby its program achievements to date as well as projected future savings are shared with stakeholders. This report presents savings estimates for ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of energy, dollar, and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2008, annual forecasts for 2009 and 2010, and cumulative savings estimates for the period 1993 through 2008 and cumulative forecasts for the period 2009 through 2015. Through 2008 the program saved 8.8 Quads of primary energy and avoided the equivalent of 158 metric tones carbon (MtC). The forecast for the period 2009-2015 is 18.1 Quads or primary energy saved and 316 MtC emissions avoided. The sensitivity analysis bounds the best estimate of carbon avoided between 104 MtC and 213 MtC (1993 to 2008) and between 206 MtC and 444 MtC (2009 to 2015). In this report we address the following questions for ENERGY STAR labeled products: (1) How are ENERGY STAR impacts quantified; (2) What are the ENERGY STAR achievements; and (3) What are the limitations to our method?

  12. Emissions Inventory Report Summary: Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative Code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20.2.73 NMAC) for Calendar Year 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. Stockton

    2005-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory is subject to annual emissions-reporting requirements for regulated air pollutants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20.2.73 NMAC), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The applicability of the requirements is based on the Laboratory's potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, or volatile organic compounds. For calendar year 2003, the Technical Area 3 steam plant and the air curtain destructors were the primary sources of criteria air pollutants from the Laboratory, while the air curtain destructors and chemical use associated with research and development activities were the primary sources of volatile organic compounds and hazardous air pollutants. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20.2.72 NMAC. Hazardous air pollutant emissions were reported from chemical use as well as from all combustion sources. In addition, estimates of particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 micrometers and ammonia were provided as requested by the New Mexico Environment Department, Air Quality Bureau.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  14. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  15. Emissions Inventory Report Summary: Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73) for Calendar Year 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) is subject to emissions reporting requirements for regulated air contaminants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73, (20 NMAC 2.73), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The Laboratory has the potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). For 1997, combustion products from the industrial sources contributed the greatest amount of regulated air emissions from the Laboratory. Research and development activities contributed the greatest amount of VOCs. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20 NMAC 2.72, Construction Permits.

  16. Emissions Inventory Report Summary Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative Code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73) for Calendar Year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Air Quality Group, ESH-17

    1999-09-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) is subject to emissions reporting requirements for regulated air contaminants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The Laboratory has the potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, and volatile organic compounds. For 1998, combustion products from the industrial sources contributed the greatest amount of criteria air pollutants from the Laboratory. Research and development activities contributed the greatest amount of volatile organic compounds. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20 NMAC 2.72 Construction Permits.

  17. Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves, cities and forecasting By Payal Marathe * October 1, 2015 Tweet EmailPrint The 1995 Chicago heat wave was a...

  18. Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang; Zhou, Nan; Levine, Mark; Fridley, David

    2007-07-01

    China's 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) sets an ambitious target for energy-efficiency improvement: energy intensity of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) should be reduced by 20% from 2005 to 2010 (NDRC, 2006). This is the first time that a quantitative and binding target has been set for energy efficiency, and signals a major shift in China's strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energy development. The 20% energy intensity target also translates into an annual reduction of over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 by 2010, making the Chinese effort one of most significant carbon mitigation effort in the world today. While it is still too early to tell whether China will achieve this target, this paper attempts to understand the trend in energy intensity in China and to explore a variety of options toward meeting the 20% target using a detailed end-use energy model.

  19. Page 1 of 2 [Page 1: most recent five years. Page 2: prior five years.] Last updated 1/2/2014 Career Services @ Virginia Tech Career Services at Virginia Tech | Post-Graduation Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    % OCIntv/H4H 4% Acad dept info 1% College: Natural Resources & Environme 21% OCIntv/H4H 9% Job websites 7% Empl website 6% Acad dept info 2% Wk'd for empl 24% Networking 22% Career fair 17% OCIntv/H4H 13% Job websites 7% Empl website 6% Acad dept info 3% Networking 26% Wk

  20. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  1. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  2. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  3. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  4. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  5. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  6. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  7. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  8. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  9. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  10. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  11. Prospective Study Evaluating Postoperative Radiotherapy Plus 2-Year Androgen Suppression for Post-Radical Prostatectomy Patients With Pathologic T3 Disease and/or Positive Surgical Margins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choo, Richard [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (United States)], E-mail: choo.c@mayo.edu; Danjoux, Cyril; Gardner, Sandra; Morton, Gerard; Szumacher, Ewa; Loblaw, D. Andrew; Cheung, Patrick [Department of Radiation Oncology, Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Pearse, Maria [Department of Radiation Oncology, Auckland Hospital, Auckland (New Zealand)

    2009-10-01

    Purpose: To determine the efficacy of a combined approach of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) plus 2-year androgen suppression (AS) for patients with pathologic T3 disease (pT3) and/or positive surgical margins (PSM) after radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods and Materials: A total of 78 patients with pT3 and/or PSM after RP were treated with RT plus 2-year AS, as per a pilot, prospective study. Androgen suppression started within 1 month after the completion of RT and consisted of nilutamide for 4 weeks and buserelin acetate depot subcutaneously every 2 months for 2 years. Relapse-free rate, including freedom from prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse, was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate prognostic factors for relapse. Prostate-specific antigen relapse was defined as a PSA rise above 0.2 ng/mL, with two consecutive increases over a minimum of 3 months. Results: The median age was 61 years at the time of RP. The median interval between RP and postoperative RT was 4.2 months. Forty-nine patients had undetectable PSA (<0.2 ng/mL), and 29 had persistently detectable postoperative PSA at the time of the protocol treatment. Median follow-up from RT was 6.4 years. Relapse-free rates at 5 and 7 years were 94.4% and 86.3%, respectively. Survival rates were 96% at 5 years and 93.1% at 7 years. On Cox regression analysis, persistently detectable postoperative PSA and pT3b-T4 were significant predictors for relapse. Conclusion: The combined treatment of postoperative RT plus 2-year AS yielded encouraging results for patients with pT3 and/or PSM and warrants a confirmatory study.

  12. FIRST YEAR HOUSING REQUIREMENT POLICY PAGE 2 of 3 Residential Life; Contracted Housing Management Service Provider; Unit of Campus Life; Unit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Lawrence R.

    #12;FIRST YEAR HOUSING REQUIREMENT POLICY PAGE 2 of 3 Residential Life; Contracted Housing on campus in a UNLV owned or operated housing facility during their first year. Limited exceptions be submitted in writing to the UNLV Office of Housing & Residential Life, which is the sole authority

  13. The aim of this work is to apply a probabilistic method to quantify the likelihood to observe the Banking Case contrary to a deterministic approach. The Banking Case is the forecast of oil or gas volumes that could be recovered from a formation in the upc

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Psaltis, Demetri

    to observe the Banking Case contrary to a deterministic approach. The Banking Case is the forecast of oil or gas volumes that could be recovered from a formation in the upcoming years. It iis estimated to ensure positive NPV. Certainty of Oil Production Forecasts Methodology A hyperbolic curve fit

  14. Visualizing the Surface Infrastructure Used to Move 2 MtCO2/year from the Dakota Gasification Company to the Weyburn CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Project: Version of July 1, 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.

    2009-07-09

    Google Earth Pro has been employed to create an interactive flyover of the world’s largest operational carbon dioxide capture and storage project. The visualization focuses on the transport and storage of 2 MtCO2/year which is captured from the Dakota Gasification Facility (Beula, North Dakota) and transported 205 miles and injected into the Weyburn oil field in Southeastern Saskatchewan.

  15. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  16. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  17. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  18. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  19. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  20. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  1. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  2. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  3. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  4. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  5. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  6. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  7. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  8. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  9. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  10. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  11. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  12. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  13. LNG to the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davenport, S.T.

    1984-04-01

    By 2000, about 190 MM metric-tpy of LNG will be moving in world trade, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer By the year 2000, approximately 190 million metric tons per year of LNG will be moving in worldwide trade. Production of LNG will be spread throughout most of the world, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer. LNG will be delivered only to the heavily industrialized areas of North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The success of any LNG project will be dependent on its individual economics, market needs, financial planning, and governmental permit processes. We hope industry will be able to put together the LNG projects required to meet the quanitities of production forecast here for the year 2000.

  14. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  15. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  16. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  17. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  18. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  19. Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model , Zhe Song a,*, Andrew Kusiak b

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kusiak, Andrew

    of the wind industry, such as wind turbine predictive control [2,3], wind power grid integration and economic July 2012 Available online Keywords: Time series Forecasting Wind power Wind speed Bayesian structural applications, such as wind turbine predictive control, wind power scheduling. The proposed model is tested

  20. A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height ADAM J. DEPPE AND WILLIAM A. GALLUS JR.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    University, Ames, Iowa (Manuscript received 2 October 2011, in final form 15 May 2013) ABSTRACT The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements.S. Department of Energy goal of having 20% of the nation's electrical energy from wind by 2030 will require

  1. Dragon Year

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hacker, Randi

    2012-01-11

    Broadcast Transcript: Can you believe it? It's New Year again. It seems like only yesterday we were celebrating the advent of the year of the Rabbit and now, here it is, the year of the Dragon. January 22nd is New Year's Eve according to the Lunar...

  2. Solid waste 30-year volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Armacost, L.L.; DeForest, T.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Williams, N.C.

    1994-06-01

    A 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site is described in this report. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste that will require treatment, storage, and disposal at Hanford`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during the 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The data used to complete this document were collected from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently, or are planning to, ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site. An analysis of the data suggests that over 300,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed at Hanford`s SWOC over the next 30 years. An extensive effort was made this year to collect this information. The 1993 solid waste forecast was used as a starting point, which identified approximately 100,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste to be sent to the SWOC. After analyzing the forecast waste volume, it was determined that additional waste was expected from the tank waste remediation system (TWRS), onsite decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities, and onsite remedial action (RA) activities. Data presented in this report establish a starting point for solid waste management planning. It is recognized that forecast estimates will vary (typically increasing) as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined, but the information presented still provides useful insight into Hanford`s future solid waste management requirements.

  3. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  4. 2, 921942, 2002 Global ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    ACPD 2, 921­942, 2002 Global ozone forecasting H. J. Eskes et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Geophysical Society 2002 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 July 2002 Correspondence to: H. J. Eskes (eskes@knmi.nl) 921 #12;ACPD 2, 921­942, 2002 Global ozone

  5. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  6. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  7. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  8. Fact #862 March 2, 2015 Light Vehicle Production in Mexico More than Doubled in Last Five Years

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Total production of light vehicles in Mexico remained nearly flat between 2004 and 2009 but in the following five-year span from 2009 to 2014, production more than doubled. In 2004, cars and light...

  9. NOAA's Proposed Climate Service Background updated 7/13/11 NOAA's shortterm weather forecasts of conditions out to about twoweeks are critical to saving lives and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts of conditions out to about twoweeks are critical to saving lives and property. Similarly, NOAA to saving lives and property. For example: o firefighters in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona used industry estimates it saved $300 million per year in construction costs alone by using temperature trends

  10. The first 2.5 years of the HETE : toward an understanding of the nature of short and long duration gamma-ray bursts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Butler, Nathaniel Richard, 1976-

    2003-01-01

    The HETE satellite became operational on the 2nd of February, 2001. In the first 2.5 years of the mission prior to July 1 of 2003, 42 Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) were promptly localized and publicized over the GRB Coordinates ...

  11. Long-Term Outcome of a Hepatocellular Carcinoma 71/2 Years After Surgery and Repeated Radiofrequency Ablation: Case Report and Review of the Literature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thanos, L., E-mail: loutharad@yahoo.com; Mylona, S.; Nikita, A.; Ptohis, N.; Kelekis, D.A. [University of Athens, 2nd Radiology Department (Greece)

    2007-04-15

    An interesting case is presented of a 78-year-old patient with cirrhosis who was managed with combined treatment (surgery and radiofrequency (RF) ablation) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and has survived for 71/2 years. Elevation of the {alpha}-FP (alpha-fetoprotein) levels was noted 2 years after surgery. CT demonstrated two lesions: one central at the remaining right liver lobe, and the other at the excision site. Biopsy of the lesions confirmed the diagnosis of HCC for both of them. RF ablation of these two lesions was performed in one session with technical success. Four and a half years after the first RF ablation a new recurrence was demonstrated at the CT follow-up control. RF ablation was again applied successfully. The imaging findings and the therapeutic percutaneous management of this patient along with the natural course of HCC and its recurrence are discussed, and the literature concerning risk factors is reviewed.

  12. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  13. Regulatory Assistance, Stakeholder Outreach, and Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Activities In Support Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Deployment: Task 2.1.7 Permitting and Planning Fiscal Year 2012 Year-End Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geerlofs, Simon H.; Hanna, Luke A.; Judd, Chaeli R.; Blake, Kara M.

    2012-09-01

    This fiscal year 2012 year-end report summarizes activities carried out under DOE Water Power task 2.1.7, Permitting and Planning. Activities under Task 2.1.7 address the concerns of a wide range of stakeholders with an interest in the development of the MHK industry, including regulatory and resource management agencies, tribes, NGOs, and industry. Objectives for 2.1.7 are the following: • To work with stakeholders to streamline the MHK regulatory permitting process. • To work with stakeholders to gather information on needs and priorities for environmental assessment of MHK development. • To communicate research findings and directions to the MHK industry and stakeholders. • To engage in spatial planning processes in order to further the development of the MHK industry. These objectives are met through three subtasks, each of which are described in this report: • 2.1.7.1—Regulatory Assistance • 2.1.7.2—Stakeholder Outreach • 2.1.7.3—Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning As the MHK industry works with the regulatory community and stakeholders to plan, site, permit and license MHK technologies they have an interest in a predictable, efficient, and transparent process. Stakeholders and regulators have an interest in processes that result in sustainable use of ocean space with minimal effects to existing ocean users. Both stakeholders and regulators have an interest in avoiding legal challenges by meeting the intent of federal, state, and local laws that govern siting and operation of MHK technologies. The intention of work under 2.1.7 is to understand these varied interests, explore mechanisms to reduce conflict, identify efficiencies, and ultimately identify pathways to reduce the regulatory costs, time, and potential environmental impacts associated with developing, siting, permitting, and deploying MHK systems.

  14. Experimental Forecasts of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia (Updated version with Jun-Dec forecasts)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Po, Lai-Man

    southeastward as compared to the climatology. Such a difference is similar to what has been observed in El Nino that suggest this year being likely an El Nino year (e.g. Fig. 5). The numbers of TCs predicted and actually associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972. Chan, J. C. L. and M. Xu, 2009

  15. Summary of Research through Phase II/Year 2 of Initially Approved 3 Phase/3 Year Project - Establishing the Relationship between Fracture-Related Dolomite and Primary Rock Fabric on the Distribution of Reservoirs in the Michigan Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Grammer

    2007-09-30

    This final scientific/technical report covers the first 2 years (Phases I and II of an originally planned 3 Year/3 Phase program). The project was focused on evaluating the relationship between fracture-related dolomite and dolomite constrained by primary rock fabric in the 3 most prolific reservoir intervals in the Michigan Basin. The characterization of select dolomite reservoirs was the major focus of our efforts in Phases I and II of the project. Structural mapping and log analysis in the Dundee (Devonian) and Trenton/Black River (Ordovician) suggest a close spatial relationship among gross dolomite distribution and regional-scale, wrench fault-related NW-SE and NE-SW structural trends. A high temperature origin for much of the dolomite in these 2 studied intervals (based upon fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures and stable isotopic analyses,) coupled with persistent association of this dolomite in reservoirs coincident with wrench fault-related features, is strong evidence for these reservoirs being influenced by hydrothermal dolomitization. In the Niagaran (Silurian), there is a general trend of increasing dolomitization shelfward, with limestone predominant in more basinward positions. A major finding is that facies types, when analyzed at a detailed level, are directly related to reservoir porosity and permeability in these dolomites which increases the predictability of reservoir quality in these units. This pattern is consistent with our original hypothesis of primary facies control on dolomitization and resulting reservoir quality at some level. The identification of distinct and predictable vertical stacking patterns within a hierarchical sequence and cycle framework provides a high degree of confidence at this point that the results should be exportable throughout the basin. Much of the data synthesis and modeling for the project was scheduled to be part of Year 3/Phase III, but the discontinuation of funding after Year 2 precluded those efforts. Therefore, the results presented in this document are not final, and in many cases represent a report of 'progress to date' as numerous tasks were scheduled to extend into Year 3.

  16. The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS): a cosmological forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Gong-Bo; Ross, Ashley J; Shandera, Sarah; Percival, Will J; Dawson, Kyle S; Kneib, Jean-Paul; Myers, Adam D; Brownstein, Joel R; Comparat, Johan; Delubac, Timothée; Gao, Pengyuan; Hojjati, Alireza; Koyama, Kazuya; McBride, Cameron K; Meza, Andrés; Newman, Jeffrey A; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Pogosian, Levon; Prada, Francisco; Rossi, Graziano; Schneider, Donald P; Seo, Hee-Jong; Tao, Charling; Wang, Dandan; Yèche, Christophe; Zhang, Hanyu; Zhang, Yuecheng; Zhou, Xu; Zhu, Fangzhou; Zou, Hu

    2015-01-01

    We present a science forecast for the eBOSS survey, part of the SDSS-IV project, which is a spectroscopic survey using multiple tracers of large-scale structure, including luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs) and quasars (both as a direct probe of structure and through the Ly-$\\alpha$ forest). Focusing on discrete tracers, we forecast the expected accuracy of the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO), the redshift-space distortion (RSD) measurements, the $f_{\\rm NL}$ parameter quantifying the primordial non-Gaussianity, the dark energy and modified gravity parameters. We also use the line-of-sight clustering in the Ly-$\\alpha$ forest to constrain the total neutrino mass. We find that eBOSS LRGs ($0.60.6$), ELGs ($0.62$) and Clustering Quasars (CQs) ($0.62.2$) can achieve a precision of 1%, 2.2% and 1.6% precisions, respectively, for spherically averaged BAO distance measurements. Using the same samples, the constraint on $f\\sigma_8$ is expected to be 2.5%, 3.3% and 2.8...

  17. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  18. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  19. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be