National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for year forecast 2

  1. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  2. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  3. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  4. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  6. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  8. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  9. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  10. YEAR 2 BIOMASS UTILIZATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christopher J. Zygarlicke

    2004-11-01

    This Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) Year 2 Biomass Utilization Final Technical Report summarizes multiple projects in biopower or bioenergy, transportation biofuels, and bioproducts. A prototype of a novel advanced power system, termed the high-temperature air furnace (HITAF), was tested for performance while converting biomass and coal blends to energy. Three biomass fuels--wood residue or hog fuel, corn stover, and switchgrass--and Wyoming subbituminous coal were acquired for combustion tests in the 3-million-Btu/hr system. Blend levels were 20% biomass--80% coal on a heat basis. Hog fuel was prepared for the upcoming combustion test by air-drying and processing through a hammer mill and screen. A K-Tron biomass feeder capable of operating in both gravimetric and volumetric modes was selected as the HITAF feed system. Two oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys that would be used in the HITAF high-temperature heat exchanger were tested for slag corrosion rates. An alumina layer formed on one particular alloy, which was more corrosion-resistant than a chromia layer that formed on the other alloy. Research activities were completed in the development of an atmospheric pressure, fluidized-bed pyrolysis-type system called the controlled spontaneous reactor (CSR), which is used to process and condition biomass. Tree trimmings were physically and chemically altered by the CSR process, resulting in a fuel that was very suitable for feeding into a coal combustion or gasification system with little or no feed system modifications required. Experimental procedures were successful for producing hydrogen from biomass using the bacteria Thermotoga, a deep-ocean thermal vent organism. Analytical procedures for hydrogen were evaluated, a gas chromatography (GC) method was derived for measuring hydrogen yields, and adaptation culturing and protocols for mutagenesis were initiated to better develop strains that can use biomass cellulose. Fly ash derived from cofiring coal with waste paper, sunflower hulls, and wood waste showed a broad spectrum of chemical and physical characteristics, according to American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) C618 procedures. Higher-than-normal levels of magnesium, sodium, and potassium oxide were observed for the biomass-coal fly ash, which may impact utilization in cement replacement in concrete under ASTM requirements. Other niche markets for biomass-derived fly ash were explored. Research was conducted to develop/optimize a catalytic partial oxidation-based concept for a simple, low-cost fuel processor (reformer). Work progressed to evaluate the effects of temperature and denaturant on ethanol catalytic partial oxidation. A catalyst was isolated that had a yield of 24 mole percent, with catalyst coking limited to less than 15% over a period of 2 hours. In biodiesel research, conversion of vegetable oils to biodiesel using an alternative alkaline catalyst was demonstrated without the need for subsequent water washing. In work related to biorefinery technologies, a continuous-flow reactor was used to react ethanol with lactic acid prepared from an ammonium lactate concentrate produced in fermentations conducted at the EERC. Good yields of ester were obtained even though the concentration of lactic acid in the feed was low with respect to the amount of water present. Esterification gave lower yields of ester, owing to the lowered lactic acid content of the feed. All lactic acid fermentation from amylose hydrolysate test trials was completed. Management activities included a decision to extend several projects to December 31, 2003, because of delays in receiving biomass feedstocks for testing and acquisition of commercial matching funds. In strategic studies, methods for producing acetate esters for high-value fibers, fuel additives, solvents, and chemical intermediates were discussed with several commercial entities. Commercial industries have an interest in efficient biomass gasification designs but are waiting for economic incentives. Utility, biorefinery, pulp and paper, or other industries are interested in lignin as a potential fuel or feedstock but need more information on properties.

  11. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  12. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  13. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  14. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  15. Gasoline price to average below $2 in 2016 for first time in 12 years

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price to average below $2 in 2016 for first time in 12 years The annual average price for U.S. regular-grade gasoline is expected to fall below $2 per gallon this year for the first time since 2004. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said drivers will pay on average $1.98 per gallon to fill up at the pump with regular-grade gasoline. EIA expects the monthly average price of gasoline to reach a seven-year low of $1.82 per gallon in February, before

  16. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  17. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  18. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  19. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  20. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    558 YEAR 2013 Males 512 Females 46 YEAR 2013 SES 2 EJEK 2 EN 04 1 NN (Engineering) 11 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 220 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 321 YEAR 2013...

  1. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    11 YEAR 2012 Males 78 Females 33 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 9 EN 05 1 EN 04 33 NN (Engineering) 32 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 2...

  2. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    137 YEAR 2013 Males 90 Females 47 YEAR 2013 SES 2 SL 1 EJEK 30 EN 04 30 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 23 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 45 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2013 American Indian...

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    of Employees 14 GENDER YEAR 2012 Males 9 Females 5 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 2 NN (Engineering) 4 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 6 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American Indian Female 0...

  4. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    YEAR 2014 AVERAGE AGE 48.6 UNDER 30 2 30-39 5 40-49 8 50-59 17 60-69 3 70 AND UP 0 YEAR 2014 AVERAGE LENGTH 16.3 LESS THAN 10 YEARS 11 10-19 YEARS 10 20-29 YEARS 11 30-39 YEARS 3 ...

  6. Year 2 Report: Protein Function Prediction Platform

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, C E

    2012-04-27

    Upon completion of our second year of development in a 3-year development cycle, we have completed a prototype protein structure-function annotation and function prediction system: Protein Function Prediction (PFP) platform (v.0.5). We have met our milestones for Years 1 and 2 and are positioned to continue development in completion of our original statement of work, or a reasonable modification thereof, in service to DTRA Programs involved in diagnostics and medical countermeasures research and development. The PFP platform is a multi-scale computational modeling system for protein structure-function annotation and function prediction. As of this writing, PFP is the only existing fully automated, high-throughput, multi-scale modeling, whole-proteome annotation platform, and represents a significant advance in the field of genome annotation (Fig. 1). PFP modules perform protein functional annotations at the sequence, systems biology, protein structure, and atomistic levels of biological complexity (Fig. 2). Because these approaches provide orthogonal means of characterizing proteins and suggesting protein function, PFP processing maximizes the protein functional information that can currently be gained by computational means. Comprehensive annotation of pathogen genomes is essential for bio-defense applications in pathogen characterization, threat assessment, and medical countermeasure design and development in that it can short-cut the time and effort required to select and characterize protein biomarkers.

  7. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  8. 2013 2nd Qtr Package

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    FY 2013 through March 31, 2013 Agency * The end-of-year (EOY) Agency adjusted net revenue forecast for the 2 nd Quarter Review is 21 million. o This forecast is 44 million...

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    42 YEAR 2014 Males 36 Females 6 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 2 EJEK 5 EN 05 7 EN 04 6 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 15 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 6 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    300 YEAR 2011 Males 109 Females 191 YEAR 2011 SES 9 EJEK 1 NN (Engineering) 2 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 203 NU (TechAdmin Support) 38 NF (Future Ldrs) 47 YEAR 2011 American Indian...

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 YEAR 2013 Males 27 Females 11 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EN 05 1 EN 04 11 NN (Engineering) 8 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 15 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2013 American Indian Alaska Native Male...

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    31 YEAR 2013 Males 20 Females 11 YEAR 2013 SES 2 EN 04 4 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 12 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2013 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,...

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    16 YEAR 2012 Males 84 Females 32 YEAR 2012 SES 26 EJEK 2 EN 05 9 NN (Engineering) 39 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 30 NU (TechAdmin Support) 10 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  14. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    34 YEAR 2012 Males 66 Females 68 YEAR 2012 SES 6 NN (Engineering) 15 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 110 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 1 American Indian Female 2...

  15. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    1 YEAR 2012 Males 30 Females 11 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EN 05 1 EN 04 11 NN (Engineering) 9 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 17 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  16. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    31 YEAR 2012 Males 19 Females 12 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EN 04 4 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 12 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American Indian...

  17. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    0 YEAR 2013 Males 48 Females 32 YEAR 2013 SES 2 EJEK 7 EN 04 11 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 23 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 33 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2013 American Indian Alaska...

  18. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  19. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  20. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  1. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    563 YEAR 2012 Males 518 Females 45 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 2 EN 04 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 209 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 335 YEAR 2012...

  2. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 YEAR 2012 Males 64 Females 33 YEAR 2012 SES 2 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 30 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 26 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 32 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    78 YEAR 2012 Males 57 Females 21 YEAR 2012 SES 2 SL 1 EJEK 12 EN 04 21 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 24 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male...

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Males 139 Females 88 YEAR 2012 SES 13 EX 1 EJEK 8 EN 05 23 EN 04 20 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 91 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 62 NU (TechAdmin Support) 7 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  5. Property:Building/YearConstruction2 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. Year of construction 2 (Year of construction) Pages using the property "BuildingYearConstruction2" Showing 25 pages using...

  6. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2012 Males 37 Females 7 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 6 EN 05 5 EN 04 7 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 17 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 6 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 2...

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 YEAR 2011 Males 38 Females 9 YEAR 2011 SES 1 EJEK 6 EN 05 5 EN 04 7 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 19 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 7 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 2...

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 YEAR 2013 Males 62 Females 26 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EJEK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 28 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 25 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 27 NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 YEAR 2013 American Indian...

  9. YEAR

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    563 YEAR 2014 Males 517 Females 46 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 2 EJ/EK 2 EN 04 1 NN (Engineering) 11 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 218 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 327 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 14 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 2 African American Male (AA M) 18 African American Female (AA F) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 8 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 2 Hispanic Male (H M) 76 Hispanic Female (H F) 21 White Male

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2012 Males 149 Females 115 YEAR 2012 SES 17 EX 1 EJEK 7 EN 05 2 EN 04 9 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 56 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 165 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 GS 13 1 YEAR 2012 American...

  11. Onboarding Year 2 | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 Performance Evaluation Process For Postdoctoral Appointments to be extended, all postdocs are required to complete a Postdoctoral Performance Evaluation Form in collaboration...

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    YEAR 2014 Males 11 Females 2 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 2 EJ/EK 1 EN 04 1 NN (Engineering) 5 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 4 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 0 African American Male (AA M) 0 African American Female (AA F) 0 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 0 Hispanic Female (H F) 0 White Male (W M) 10 White Female (W F) 2 DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2014 Males 7 Females 7 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 7 GS 15 1 GS 14 2 GS 13 2 GS 10 1 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 0 African American Male (AA M) 3 African American Female (AA F) 2 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 0 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 0 Hispanic Female (H F) 0 White Male (W M) 4 White Female (W F) 5 DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER

  14. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  15. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    82 YEAR 2014 Males 57 Females 25 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 3 EJ/EK 4 EN 04 2 NN (Engineering) 20 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 53 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 0 African American Male (AA M) 9 African American Female (AA F) 9 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 2 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 1 Hispanic Male (H M) 3 Hispanic Female (H F) 5 White Male (W M) 43 White Female (W F) 10 DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE

  16. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    5 YEAR 2014 Males 92 Females 43 YEAR 2014 SES 8 EX 1 EJ/EK 4 EN 05 9 EN 04 12 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 57 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 42 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 1 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 9 African American Female (AA F) 11 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 4 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 2 Hispanic Male (H M) 12 Hispanic Female (H F) 7 White Male (W M) 66 White Female (W F) 22 PAY PLAN

  17. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    16 YEAR 2014 Males 72 Females 144 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 8 EJ/EK 1 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 198 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 9 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 2 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 2 African American Male (AA M) 10 African American Female (AA F) 38 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 3 Hispanic Male (H M) 15 Hispanic Female (H F) 33 White Male (W M) 44 White Female (W F) 68 DIVERSITY TOTAL

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  19. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  20. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    9 Females 24 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EJ/EK 4 EN 05 3 EN 04 22 EN 03 8 NN (Engineering) 15 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 27 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 2 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 5 African American Female (AA F) 2 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 21 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 2 Hispanic Male (H M) 5 Hispanic Female (H F) 3 White Male (W M) 26 White Female (W F) 16

  1. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 Females 25 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EJ/EK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 25 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 25 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 25 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 1 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 3 African American Female (AA F) 3 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 2 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 2 Hispanic Male (H M) 6 Hispanic Female (H F) 6 White Male (W M) 46 White Female (W F) 13

  2. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    -9.09% YEAR 2012 2013 SES 1 1 0.00% EN 05 1 1 0.00% EN 04 11 11 0.00% NN (Engineering) 8 8 0.00% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 17 14 -17.65% NU (TechAdmin Support) 2 2...

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    5 YEAR 2014 Males 61 Females 24 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EJ/EK 8 EN 04 22 NN (Engineering) 23 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 28 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 2 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 3 African American Male (AA M) 0 African American Female (AA F) 0 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 3 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 13 Hispanic Female (H F) 10 White Male (W M) 43 White Female (W F) 11

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    93 YEAR 2014 Males 50 Females 43 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 EJ/EK 3 NN (Engineering) 13 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 74 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 2 African American Male (AA M) 5 African American Female (AA F) 6 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 0 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 6 Hispanic Female (H F) 14 White Male (W M) 39 White Female (W F) 21 DIVERSITY

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    89 YEAR 2014 Males 98 Females 91 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 14 EX 1 EJ/EK 3 EN 05 1 EN 04 4 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 32 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 130 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 GS 15 1 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 1 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 0 African American Male (AA M) 5 African American Female (AA F) 14 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 3 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 7 Hispanic Male (H M) 7 Hispanic Female (H F) 10 White Male

  6. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    43 YEAR 2014 Males 162 Females 81 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 26 EJ/EK 3 EN 05 7 NN (Engineering) 77 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 108 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 22 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 5 African American Female (AA F) 9 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 2 Hispanic Female (H F) 0 White Male (W M) 154 White Female (W F)

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    74 YEAR 2014 Males 96 Females 78 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 8 EJ/EK 4 EN 04 11 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 34 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 113 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 2 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 3 African American Female (AA F) 11 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 5 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 25 Hispanic Female (H F) 25 White Male (W M) 61 White

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    26 YEAR 2014 Males 81 Females 45 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 SL 1 EJ/EK 25 EN 04 26 EN 03 2 NN (Engineering) 23 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 44 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 4 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 3 African American Female (AA F) 7 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 4 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 1 Hispanic Male (H M) 6 Hispanic Female (H F) 6 White Male (W M) 68 White

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 YEAR 2014 Males 18 Females 20 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 3 EJ/EK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 28 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 0 African American Male (AA M) 1 African American Female (AA F) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 0 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 1 Hispanic Male (H M) 4 Hispanic Female (H F) 7 White Male (W M) 13 White Female (W F) 11

  10. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    17 Females 18 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EJ/EK 3 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 30 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 1 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 2 African American Male (AA M) 3 African American Female (AA F) 7 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 2 Hispanic Female (H F) 6 White Male (W M) 10 White Female (W F) 3 DIVERSITY TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Associate

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    YEAR 2012 2013 SES 2 1 -50.00% EN 05 0 1 100.00% EN 04 4 4 0.00% NN (Engineering) 13 12 -7.69% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 13 9 -30.77% NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 1...

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    25 Females 10 YEAR 2014 SES 1 EN 04 11 NN (Engineering) 8 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 13 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 1 African American Female (AA F) 3 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 0 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 0 Hispanic Female (H F) 0 White Male (W M) 24 White Female (W F) 6 TOTAL WORKFORCE GENDER Kansas City

  14. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  16. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  18. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  19. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  20. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  1. WPN 16-2: Program Year 2016 Grantee Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2016. Archived 01/08/16, Superseded by WPN 16-2A

  2. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    69 YEAR 2014 Males 34 Females 35 YEAR 2014 SES 5 EJEK 1 EN 05 8 EN 04 5 NN (Engineering) 27 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 22 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska...

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2012 Males 65 Females 29 YEAR 2012 SES 3 EJEK 5 EN 04 3 NN (Engineering) 21 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 61 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 YEAR 2011 Males 21 Females 23 YEAR 2011 SES 3 EJEK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American...

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    92 YEAR 2012 Males 52 Females 40 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 7 EN 04 13 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 27 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 38 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0...

  6. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    02 YEAR 2011 Males 48 Females 54 YEAR 2011 SES 5 EJEK 1 NN (Engineering) 13 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 80 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 0 American Indian...

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    86 YEAR 2012 Males 103 Females 183 YEAR 2012 SES 7 EJEK 1 NN (Engineering) 1 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 202 NU (TechAdmin Support) 30 NF (Future Ldrs) 45 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male...

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    80 YEAR 2012 Males 51 Females 29 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 22 EN 04 21 NN (Engineering) 14 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 21 NU (TechAdmin Support) 1 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    96 YEAR 2013 Males 69 Females 27 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EJEK 9 EN 04 27 NN (Engineering) 26 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 30 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2013 American Indian Alaska Native Male...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    40 YEAR 2011 Males 68 Females 72 YEAR 2011 SES 5 EJEK 1 NN (Engineering) 16 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 115 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2011 American Indian Male 1 American Indian...

  11. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    00 YEAR 2012 Males 48 Females 52 YEAR 2012 SES 5 EJEK 1 NN (Engineering) 11 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 80 NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American Indian...

  12. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    3 YEAR 2012 Males 21 Females 22 YEAR 2012 SES 3 EJEK 1 EN 03 1 NN (Engineering) 3 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 30 NU (TechAdmin Support) 5 YEAR 2012 American Indian Male 0 American...

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    6 YEAR 2012 Males 64 Females 32 YEAR 2012 SES 1 EJEK 5 EN 05 3 EN 04 23 EN 03 9 NN (Engineering) 18 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 33 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2012 American Indian...

  14. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    5 YEAR 2013 Males 58 Females 27 YEAR 2013 SES 1 EJEK 4 EN 05 3 EN 04 21 EN 03 8 NN (Engineering) 16 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 28 NU (TechAdmin Support) 4 YEAR 2013 American Indian...

  15. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  16. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  17. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  18. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    9 YEAR 2014 Males 9 Females 10 YEAR 2014 SES 7 ED 1 EJ/EK 1 EN 05 1 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 8 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 1 African American Female (AA F) 5 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 0 Hispanic Female (H F) 3 White Male (W M) 7 White Female (W F) 1 PAY PLAN DIVERSITY TOTAL

  19. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 YEAR 2014 Males 18 Females 10 PAY PLAN YEAR 2014 SES 1 EN 05 1 EN 04 4 NN (Engineering) 12 NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 9 NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 YEAR 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN M) 0 American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN F) 1 African American Male (AA M) 4 African American Female (AA F) 4 Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 1 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 0 Hispanic Female (H F) 0 White Male (W M) 13 White Female (W F) 5

  20. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  1. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  2. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  3. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    SES 1 2 100.00% EJEK 2 2 0.00% EN 04 1 1 0.00% EN 03 1 0 -100.00% NN (Engineering) 12 11 -8.33% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 216 218 0.93% NU (TechAdmin Support) 2...

  4. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Females 863 YEAR 2013 SES 102 EX 3 SL 1 EJEK 89 EN 05 41 EN 04 170 EN 03 18 NN (Engineering) 448 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 1249 NU (TechAdmin Support) 76 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 321...

  5. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Females 942 YEAR 2012 SES 108 EX 4 SL 1 EJEK 96 EN 05 45 EN 04 196 EN 03 20 NN (Engineering) 452 NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 1291 NU (TechAdmin Support) 106 NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 335...

  6. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 2 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 2 Hispanic Male (H M) 6 Hispanic Female (H F) 6 White Male (W M) 46 White Female (W ...

  7. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2013 SES 2 2 0.00% EJEK 7 8 14.29% EN 04 11 11 0.00% EN 03 1 1 0.00% NN (Engineering) 23 24 4.35% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 35 32 -8.57% NU (TechAdmin Support) 3 2...

  8. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 21 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 2 Hispanic Male (H M) 5 Hispanic Female (H F) 3 White Male (W M) 26 White Female (W ...

  9. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI M) 2 Asian American Pacific Islander Female (AAPI F) 0 Hispanic Male (H M) 12 Hispanic Female (H F) 12 White Male (W M) 34 White Female ...

  10. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    1.6% 6.6% 0.7% 17.5% 49.7% 2.7% 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Pay Plan Males 66.5% Females 33.5% Gender AIAN M AIAN F AA M AA F AAPI M AAPI F H M H F W M W F 1.1% 1.0% 3.7% 5.8% 2.6% 1.0%...

  11. Year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . U.S. Coal Production, 2009 - 2015 (thousand short tons) Year January - March April - June July - September October - December Total 2009 282,772 263,017 269,339 259,796 1,074,923 2010 265,702 264,982 277,505 276,180 1,084,368 2011 273,478 264,291 275,006 282,853 1,095,628 2012 266,865 241,047 258,956 249,591 1,016,458 2013 244,867 243,211 257,595 239,169 984,842 2014 245,271 245,844 255,377 253,557 1,000,049 2015 240,189 211,130 237,263 207,355 895,936 Note: Total may not equal sum of

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  13. YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2012 2013 SES 2 1 -50.00% EJEK 10 9 -10.00% EN 04 27 24 -11.11% NN (Engineering) 28 24 -14.29% NQ (ProfTechAdmin) 31 29 -6.45% NU (TechAdmin Support) 4...

  14. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  15. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  16. WPN 07-2: Program Year 2007 State Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide final State allocations for preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year (PY) 2007.

  17. WPN 05-2: Program Year 2005 State Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide final state allocations for preparation and submission of applications for funding of the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2005.

  18. WPN 14-2: Program Year 2014 Grantee Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide final Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2014.

  19. WPN 12-2: Program Year 2012 Grantee Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide final Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2012.

  20. WPN 13-2: Program Year 2013 Grantee Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2013.

  1. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  2. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  3. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  4. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  5. WPN 04-2a: Program Year 2004 Final Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide final state allocations to the states for their preparation and submission of applications for funding of the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2004.

  6. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  7. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  8. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  9. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  10. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  11. EMSL Quarterly Highlights Report: 2nd Quarter, Fiscal Year 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Showalter, Mary Ann; Kathmann, Loel E.; Manke, Kristin L.

    2009-05-04

    This report outlines the highlights, staff and user accomplishments, and publications that occured during FY09, 2nd quarter at EMSL.

  12. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  13. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  14. WPN 09-2: Program Year 2009 Grantee Allocations | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    2: Program Year 2009 Grantee Allocations WPN 09-2: Program Year 2009 Grantee Allocations Archived 12/08/09, Superseded by WPN 10-2 To provide final Grantee allocations for preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year (PY) 2009. PDF icon WPN 09-2: Program Year 2009 Grantee Allocations More Documents & Publications WPN 08-2: Program Year 2008 State Allocations WPN 09-1A: Grant Guidance for Program Years 2008 and

  15. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  16. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  19. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  20. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  2. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  3. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  4. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  5. OPEC: 10 years after the Arab oil boycott

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, M.H.

    1983-09-23

    OPEC's dominance over world oil markets is waning 10 years after precipitating world-wide energy and economic crises. The 1979 revolution in Iran and the start of the Iranian-Iraqi war in 1980 introduced a second shock that caused oil importers to seek non-OPEC supplies and emphasize conservation. No breakup of the cartel is anticipated, however, despite internal disagreements over production and price levels. Forecasters see OPEC as the major price setter as an improved economy increases world demand for oil. Long-term forecasts are even more optimistic. 24 references, 2 figures, 2 tables. (DCK)

  6. 15 Years of Successful H2S Abatement | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to library Journal Article: 15 Years of Successful H2S Abatement Abstract NA Author Gary J. Nagl Published Journal Geothermal Resources Council Bulletin, 2009 DOI Not Provided...

  7. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  8. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  9. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  10. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  11. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  12. Cheniere Marketing, LLC, FE Dkt. No. 14-186-LNG - 2-Year Blanket - DOE FE

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ORDER 3578 | Department of Energy Cheniere Marketing, LLC, FE Dkt. No. 14-186-LNG - 2-Year Blanket - DOE FE ORDER 3578 Cheniere Marketing, LLC, FE Dkt. No. 14-186-LNG - 2-Year Blanket - DOE FE ORDER 3578 PDF icon 1. 11/10/14 - Cheniere Marketing, LLC - 2-Year Blanket Authorization to Import/Export Natural Gas from/to Canada/Mexico PDF icon 2. 01/08/15 - U.S. Department of Energy - Order 3578 Granting Authorization to Import/Export Natural Gas from/to Canada/Mexico, to Import LNG from Various

  13. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  14. Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Potential in U.S. and Portions of Canada | Department of Energy Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage Potential in U.S. and Portions of Canada Third Carbon Sequestration Atlas Estimates Up to 5,700 Years of CO2 Storage Potential in U.S. and Portions of Canada December 1, 2010 - 12:00pm Addthis Washington, DC - There could be as much as 5,700 years of carbon dioxide (CO2) storage potential available in geologic formations in the United States and portions

  15. EcoCAR 2 Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University EcoCAR 2 Announces Year One Winner: Mississippi State University May 24, 2012 - 10:40am Addthis NEWS MEDIA CONTACT (202) 586-4940 Los Angeles, Calif. - EcoCAR 2: Plugging In to the Future today named Mississippi State University its Year One winner at the EcoCAR 2012 Competition in Los Angeles. The 15 universities competing in EcoCAR 2 gathered for six days of judged competition this week with $100,000 in prize

  16. Energy Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Year

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Through Energy Efficiency | Department of Energy Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Year Through Energy Efficiency Energy Department's Texas Pantex Plant to Save Over $2 Million Per Year Through Energy Efficiency January 4, 2006 - 9:08am Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that it has signed a contract to significantly improve energy efficiency at its Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Tex., that will result in an estimated savings

  17. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  18. Assessing middle school students` understanding of science relationships and processes: Year 2 - instrument validation. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schau, C.; Mattern, N.; Weber, R.; Minnick, K.

    1997-01-01

    Our overall purpose for this multi-year project was to develop an alternative assessment format measuring rural middle school students understanding of science concepts and processes and the interrelationships among them. This kind of understanding is called structural knowledge. We had 3 major interrelated goals: (1) Synthesize the existing literature and critically evaluate the actual and potential use of measures of structural knowledge in science education. (2) Develop a structural knowledge alternative assessment format. (3) Examine the validity of our structural knowledge format. We accomplished the first two goals during year 1. The structural knowledge assessment we identified and developed further was a select-and-fill-in concept map format. The goal for our year 2 work was to begin to validate this assessment approach. This final report summarizes our year 2 work.

  19. Solid Waste Program Fiscal Year 1996 Multi-Year Program Plan WBS 1.2.1, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-09-01

    This document contains the Fiscal Year 1996 Multi-Year Program Plan for the Solid Waste Program at the Hanford Reservation in Richland, Washington. The Solid Waste Program treats, stores, and disposes of a wide variety of solid wastes consisting of radioactive, nonradioactive and hazardous material types. Solid waste types are typically classified as transuranic waste, low-level radioactive waste, low-level mixed waste, and non-radioactive hazardous waste. This report describes the mission, goals and program strategies for the Solid Waste Program for fiscal year 1996 and beyond.

  20. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  1. Table HC1-2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction,

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2a. Housing Unit Characteristics by Year of Construction, Million U.S. Households, 2001 Housing Unit Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Year of Construction RSE Row Factors 1990 to 2001 1 1980 to 1989 1970 to 1979 1960 to 1969 1950 to 1959 1949 or Before 0.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 Total ............................................... 107.0 15.5 18.2 18.8 13.8 14.2 26.6 4.3 Census Region and Division Northeast ...................................... 20.3 1.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.0 8.5 8.8 New

  2. EcoCAR 2 Year 1 Winners Announced! | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Year 1 Winners Announced! EcoCAR 2 Year 1 Winners Announced! May 25, 2012 - 1:21pm Addthis EcoCAR 2: Pluggin in to the Future challenges 15 universities across North America to reduce the environmental impact of a 2013 Chevrolet Malibu by minimizing the vehicles' fuel consumption and reducing its emissions while retaining the vehicle's performance, safety, and consumer appeal. | Photo by Myles Regan. EcoCAR 2: Pluggin in to the Future challenges 15 universities across North America to reduce the

  3. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  4. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  6. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  7. Table 2.10 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption and Expenditure Indicators, Selected Years, 1979-2003

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption and Expenditure Indicators, Selected Years, 1979-2003 Energy Source and Year Building Characteristics Energy Consumption Energy Expenditures Number of Buildings Total Square Feet Square Feet per Building Total Per Building Per Square Foot Per Employee Total Per Building Per Square Foot Per Million Btu Thousands Millions Thousands Trillion Btu Million Btu Thousand Btu Million Btu Million Dollars 1 Thousand Dollars 1 Dollars 1 Dollars 1 Major Sources 2

  8. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  9. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  10. New Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Potential |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Potential New Carbon Storage Atlas Shows Hundreds of Years of CO2 Storage Potential December 21, 2012 - 9:58am Addthis Atlas IV was created by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and includes input from the more than 400 organizations in 43 states and four Canadian provinces that make up the Department’s seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (as shown above). <a

  11. EcoCAR 2 Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals EcoCAR 2 Teams Cruise Forward with Second Year Finals May 20, 2013 - 5:44pm Addthis The University of Washington team works on their vehicle while lifted on a hoist. Teams are working in a garage that is fully equipped with tools that will help them make the most of their time this week. | Photo courtesy of EcoCAR 2. The University of Washington team works on their vehicle while lifted on a hoist. Teams are working in a garage that is fully

  12. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  13. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  14. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  15. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  17. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  18. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  19. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities: Fiscal year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report describes procurement procedures and opportunities for small businesses with the Department of Energy (DOE). It describes both prime and subcontracting opportunities of $100,000 and above which are being set aside for 8(a) and other small business concerns. The report contains sections on: SIC codes; procurement opportunities with headquarters offices; procurement opportunities with field offices; subcontracting opportunities with major contractors; 8(a) contracts expiring in FY 1998; other opportunities to do business with DOE; management and operating contractors--expiration dates; Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) staff directory; and small business survey. This document will be updated quarterly on the home page.

  20. Environmental support FY 1995 multi-year program plan/fiscal year work plan WBS 1.5.2/7.4.11

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moore, D.A.

    1994-09-01

    The multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) is the programmatic planning baseline document for technical, schedule, and cost data. The MYPP contains data by which all work is managed, performed and controlled. The integrated planning process, defined by RL, is redicted on establishment of detailed data in the MYPP. The MYPP includes detailed information for the data elements including Level II critical path schedules, cost estimate detail, and updated technical data to be done annually. There will be baseline execution year and out year approval with work authorization for execution. The MYPP will concentrate on definition of the scope, schedule, cost and program element level critical path schedules that show the relationship of planned activities. The Fiscal Year Work Plan (FYWP) is prepared for each program to provide the basis for authorizing fiscal year work. The MYPP/FYWP will be structured into three main areas: (1) Program Overview; (2) Program Baselines; (3) Fiscal Year Work Plan.

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  2. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  3. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  4. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  5. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  6. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  7. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  9. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  10. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  11. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  13. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  14. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  15. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  16. Microsoft PowerPoint - ECOLOGY HAB PPT 11_03_11 v2.pptx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Jane Hedges, Manager Jane Hedges, Manager Update for Hanford Advisory Board November 3, 2011 State Budget Update September 15: Report finds state budget $1.4 billion short (despite $10 billion in cuts over last 3 years). Sept./Oct.: State agencies submit proposed budget cuts of up to 15 percent. November 17: Next revenue forecast (not expected to be pretty) November 17: Next revenue forecast (not expected to be pretty). Governor to finish preparing budget plan that cuts $2 billion in state

  17. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  18. Biomass Commercialization Prospects the Next 2 to 5 Years; BIOMASS COLLOQUIES 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hettenhaus, J. R.; Wooley, R.; Wiselogel, A.

    2000-10-12

    A series of four colloquies held in the first quarter of 2000 examined the expected development of biomass commercialization in the next 2 to 5 years. Each colloquy included seven to ten representatives from key industries that can contribute to biomass commercialization and who are in positions to influence the future direction. They represented: Corn Growers, Biomass Suppliers, Plant Science Companies, Process Engineering Companies, Chemical Processors, Agri-pulp Suppliers, Current Ethanol Producers, Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers, and Enzyme Suppliers. Others attending included representatives from the National Renewable Energy Lab., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fuels Development, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, environmental groups, grower organizations, and members of the financial and economic development community. The informal discussions resulted in improved awareness of the current state, future possibilit ies, and actions that can accelerate commercialization. Biomass commercialization on a large scale has four common issues: (1) Feedstock availability from growers; (2) Large-scale collection and storage; (3) An economic process; (4) Market demand for the product.

  19. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  20. Options in the Eleventh Year for Interim Standard Offer Number Four Contracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hinrichs, Thomas C.

    1992-03-24

    The Interim Standard Offer Number Four Contracts (ISM), under which most of the geothermal industry is selling power (outside of The Geysers), has an initial ten year period of known fixed energy payments. In the eleventh year, the price goes to the Avoided Cost of the buying utility. The specific contract language is ''Seller will be paid at a rate equal to the utilities' published avoided cost of energy as updated and authorized by the Commission (CPUC)''. The first geothermal contract will reach the end of the initial 10 year period in early 1994, a few will end in 1995 and 1996, and the majority will end in the 1997-2000 period. This is beginning to be focused upon by the utilities, lenders and, of course, the operators themselves. The prime reason for focusing on the issue is that avoided costs of the utilities directly track the delivered cost of the natural gas, and most forecasts are showing that the price of gas in the eleventh year of the contracts will be significantly lower than the last year of the fixed period of energy payments. There are many forums in which the predication of natural gas prices are discussed. In the State of California, the agency responsible for the official forecast is the California Energy Commission. Every two years, the CEC holds hearings for input into its biennial Fuels Report (FR) which establishes the forecast of natural gas prices in addition to other parameters which are used in the planning process. The attached Exhibit I is an excerpt out of the 1991 Fuels Report (FR91). Figure 1 compares the forecast of FR89 and FR91 for the Utility Electric Generation (UEG) in PG&E's service area, and Figure 2, the forecast in the SOCAL service area. The FR91 SOCAL service area forecast indicates a bottoming of the gas price in 1994 at $2.50/mmbtu. Recent prices in 1992 are already at these levels. Converting this to an avoided energy cost brings about a price of 2 to 2-1/2 Cents/kWh. The 1992 energy price in the IS04 contract is 9.3 Cents/kWh.

  1. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  7. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  8. EcoCAR 2 Competition Announces Year Two Winner: Penn State University...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Renewable Energy David Danielson. "I look forward to seeing these teams' creative, super efficient vehicle designs in the final round of the competition next year in ...

  9. WPN 02-2: Revised Weatherization Program Year 2002 Tentative Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide tentative allocations to the states for their preparation and submission of applications for funding of the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2002.

  10. WPN 16-2A: Program Year 2016 Grantee Allocations- Revised

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide revised Grantee allocations for the preparation and submission of applications for funding of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2016.

  11. WPN 03-2: Revised Weatherization Program Year 2003 Tentative Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide tentative allocations to the states for their preparation and submission of applications for funding of the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2003.

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Copernicus Center, Warsaw). Computing cycles: DOE NERSC. 14 May 26, 2011 FLASHWDM Parallel Performance strong peak weak 15 May 26, 2011 Example 2: Core-Collapse SN...

  14. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    2 40 -4.76% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 37 35 -5.41% Females 5 5 0% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 2 2 0% EJEK 5 4 -20.00% EN 05 5 7 40.00% EN 04 6 6 0% EN 03 1 1 0% NN...

  15. WPN 00-2a- Revised Program Year 2000 Tentative Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide revised tentative allocations to the states for their preparation and submission of applications for funding of the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2000.

  16. Carbon Storage Partner Completes First Year of CO2 Injection Operations in Illinois

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A project important to demonstrating the commercial viability of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology has completed the first year of injecting carbon dioxide from an industrial plant at a large-scale test site in Illinois.

  17. WPN 06-2a: Program Year 2006 Final State Allocations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide final state allocations to the states for their preparation and submission of applications for funding of the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year (PY) 2006.

  18. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  19. Planning for Pre-Exascale Platform Environment (Fiscal Year 2015 Level 2 Milestone 5216)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Springmeyer, R.; Lang, M.; Noe, J.

    2015-09-28

    This Plan for ASC Pre-Exascale Platform Environments document constitutes the deliverable for the fiscal year 2015 (FY15) Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program Level 2 milestone Planning for Pre-Exascale Platform Environment. It acknowledges and quantifies challenges and recognized gaps for moving the ASC Program towards effective use of exascale platforms and recommends strategies to address these gaps. This document also presents an update to the concerns, strategies, and plans presented in the FY08 predecessor document that dealt with the upcoming (at the time) petascale high performance computing (HPC) platforms. With the looming push towards exascale systems, a review of the earlier document was appropriate in light of the myriad architectural choices currently under consideration. The ASC Program believes the platforms to be fielded in the 2020s will be fundamentally different systems that stress ASC’s ability to modify codes to take full advantage of new or unique features. In addition, the scale of components will increase the difficulty of maintaining an errorfree system, thus driving new approaches to resilience and error detection/correction. The code revamps of the past, from serial- to vector-centric code to distributed memory to threaded implementations, will be revisited as codes adapt to a new message passing interface (MPI) plus “x” or more advanced and dynamic programming models based on architectural specifics. Development efforts are already underway in some cases, and more difficult or uncertain aspects of the new architectures will require research and analysis that may inform future directions for program choices. In addition, the potential diversity of system architectures may require parallel if not duplicative efforts to analyze and modify environments, codes, subsystems, libraries, debugging tools, and performance analysis techniques as well as exploring new monitoring methodologies. It is difficult if not impossible to selectively eliminate some of these activities until more information is available through simulations of potential architectures, analysis of systems designs, and informed study of commodity technologies that will be the constituent parts of future platforms.

  20. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  1. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  2. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  3. Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project Annual Environmental Monitoring Report calendar year 1992: Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1993-12-31

    This report contains environmental monitoring information for the following UMTRA sites for the 1992 Calendar Year: Lakeview, OR; Lowman, ID; Mexican Hat, UT; Monument Valley, AZ; Rifle, CO; Riverton, WY; Shiprock, NM; Spook, WY; Tuba City, AZ. Each site report contains a site description, compliance summary, environmental program information, environmental radiological and non-radiological program information, water resources protection, and quality assurance information.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  5. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  6. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  7. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  8. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  9. Deepwater royalty relief product of 3 1/2 year U.S. political effort

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.E.; Neff, S.

    1996-04-01

    Against the backdrop of more than 20 years of increasingly stringent environmental regulation, ever-expanding exploration and development moratoria on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), and reductions in producer tax incentives, oil and natural gas exploration companies active in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico recently won a significant legislative victory. On Nov. 28, 1995, President Clinton signed into law S.395, the Alaska Power Administration Sale Act. Title 3 of S.395 embodies the Outer Continental Shelf Deep Water Royalty Relief Act. This landmark legislation provides substantial incentives for oil and natural gas production in the gulf of Mexico by temporarily eliminating royalties on certain deepwater leases. It is the first direct incentive for oil and gas production enacted at the federal level in many years. This paper reviews the elements used to arrive at this successful legislation including the congressional leadership. It describes debates, cabinet level discussions, and use of parlimentary procedures.

  10. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    563 560 -0.53% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 518 514 -0.77% ↓ Females 45 46 2.22% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 2 2 0% / EJ/EK 2 2 0% / EN 04 1 1 0% / NN (Engineering) 11 11 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 218 221 1.38% ↑ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 2 100% ↑ NV (Nuc Mat Courier) 328 321 -2.13% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 15 15 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 2 2 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 19 18 -5.26% ↓ African American Female (AA,F) 1 1 0% /

  11. Integrating High Penetrations of PV into Southern California: Year 2 Project Update; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mather, B.; Neal, R.

    2012-08-01

    Southern California Edison (SCE) is well into a five-year project to install a total of 500 MW of distributed photovoltaic (PV) energy within its utility service territory. Typical installations to date are 1-3 MW peak rooftop PV systems that interconnect to medium-voltage urban distribution circuits or larger (5 MW peak) ground-mounted systems that connect to medium-voltage rural distribution circuits. Some of the PV system interconnections have resulted in distribution circuits that have a significant amount of PV generation compared to customer load, resulting in high-penetration PV integration scenarios. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and SCE have assembled a team of distribution modeling, resource assessment, and PV inverter technology experts in order to investigate a few of the high-penetration PV distribution circuits. Currently, the distribution circuits being studied include an urban circuit with a PV penetration of approximately 46% and a rural circuit with a PV penetration of approximately 60%. In both cases, power flow on the circuit reverses direction, compared to traditional circuit operation, during periods of high PV power production and low circuit loading. Research efforts during year two of the five-year project were focused on modeling the distribution system level impacts of high-penetration PV integrations, the development and installation of distribution circuit data acquisition equipment appropriate for quantifying the impacts of high-penetration PV integrations, and investigating high-penetration PV impact mitigation strategies. This paper outlines these research efforts and discusses the following activities in more detail: the development of a quasi-static time-series test feeder for evaluating high-penetration PV integration modeling tools; the advanced inverter functions being investigated for deployment in the project's field demonstration and a power hardware-in-loop test of a 500-kW PV inverter implementing a limited set of advanced inverter functions.

  12. Table 2.9 Commercial Buildings Consumption by Energy Source, Selected Years, 1979-2003 (Trillion Btu)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    9 Commercial Buildings Consumption by Energy Source, Selected Years, 1979-2003 (Trillion Btu) Energy Source and Year Square Footage Category Principal Building Activity Census Region 1 All Buildings 1,001 to 10,000 10,001 to 100,000 Over 100,000 Education Food Sales Food Service Health Care Lodging Mercantile and Service Office All Other Northeast Midwest South West Major Sources 2 1979 1,255 2,202 1,508 511 [3] 336 469 278 894 861 1,616 1,217 1,826 1,395 526 4,965 1983 1,242 1,935 1,646 480 [3]

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  14. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB ...

  15. Fact #806: December 2, 2013 Light Vehicle Market Shares, Model Years 1975–2012

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In 1975, cars were by far the dominant vehicle style among new light vehicle sales, with a few vans and pickup trucks. Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) accounted for less than 2% of the market at that...

  16. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  17. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  18. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  19. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  20. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  1. Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    He, D.; Wang, M.

    2000-12-12

    Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fast growth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO{sub 2} emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO{sub 2} emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO{sub 2} emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could reach the current US levels.

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  3. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  4. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  5. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  6. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  7. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  8. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  9. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  10. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  11. Geothermal energy program summary: Volume 2, Research summaries, fiscal year 1988

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-03-01

    The Geothermal Technology Division (GTD) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) is charged with the lead federal role in the research and development (R&D) of technologies that will assist industry in economically exploiting the nation`s vast geothermal resources. The GTD R&D program represents a comprehensive, balanced approach to establishing all forms of geothermal energy as significant contributors to the nation`s energy supply. It is structured both to maintain momentum in the growth of the existing hydrothermal industry and to develop long-term options offering the greatest promise for practical applications. The Geothermal Energy Program Summary for Fiscal Year 1988 is a two-volume set designed to be an easily accessible reference to inform the US geothermal industry and other interested parties of the technological advances and progress achieved in the DOE geothermal program as well as to describe the thrust of the current R&D effort and future R&D directions. This volume, Volume II, contains a detailed compilation of each GTD-funded R&D activity performed by national laboratories or under contract to industrial, academic, and nonprofit research institutions. The Program Summary is intended as an important technology transfer vehicle to assure the wide and timely dissemination of information concerning the department`s geothermal research.

  12. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  13. Table 2.6 Household End Uses: Fuel Types, Appliances, and Electronics, Selected Years, 1978-2009

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6 Household End Uses: Fuel Types, Appliances, and Electronics, Selected Years, 1978-2009 Appliance Year Change 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1987 1990 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1980 to 2009 Total Households (millions) 77 78 82 83 84 86 91 94 97 101 107 111 114 32 Percent of Households<//td> Space Heating - Main Fuel 1 Natural Gas 55 55 55 56 57 55 55 55 53 52 55 52 50 -5 Electricity 2 16 17 18 17 16 17 20 23 26 29 29 30 35 17 Liquefied Petroleum Gases 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 Distillate

  14. Evaluation of an Experimental Re-introduction of Sockeye Salmon into Skaha Lake; Year 2 of 3, 2001 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisher, Christopher; Machin, Deanna; Wright, Howie

    2002-04-01

    This report summarizes the findings from YEAR 2 of a three-year disease risk assessment. The Okanagan Nation Fisheries Commission (ONFC) and the Colville Confederated Tribes (CCT) are investigating the risks involved in re-introducing sockeye salmon into Skaha Lake, part of their historical range (Ernst and Vedan 2000). The disease risk assessment compares the disease and infection status of fish above and below McIntyre Dam (the present limit of sockeye migration). The disease agents identified that are of a particular concern are: infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV), infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus type 2 (IHNV type2), erythrocytic inclusion body syndrome virus (EIBSV), the whirling disease agent (Myxobolus cerebralis), and the ceratomyxosis agent (Ceratomyxa shasta).

  15. Concept Feasibility Report for Electroplating Zirconium onto Uranium Foil - Year 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coffey, Greg W.; Meinhardt, Kerry D.; Joshi, Vineet V.; Pederson, Larry R.; Lavender, Curt A.; Burkes, Douglas

    2015-03-01

    The Fuel Fabrication Capability within the U.S. High Performance Research Reactor Conversion Program is funded through the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) NA-26 (Office of Material Management and Minimization). An investigation was commissioned to determine the feasibility of using electroplating techniques to apply a coating of zirconium onto depleted uranium/molybdenum alloy (U-10Mo). Electroplating would provide an alternative method to the existing process of hot roll-bonding zirconium foil onto the U-10Mo fuel foil during the fabrication of fuel elements for high-performance research reactors. The objective of this research was to develop a reproducible and scalable plating process that will produce a uniform, 25 μm thick zirconium metal coating on U-10Mo foil. In previous work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) established a molten salt electroplating apparatus and protocol to plate zirconium metal onto molybdenum foil (Coffey 2015). During this second year of the research, PNNL furthered this work by moving to the U-10Mo alloy system (90 percent uranium:10 percent molybdenum). The original plating apparatus was disassembled and re-assembled in a laboratory capable of handling low-level radioactive materials. Initially, the work followed the previous year’s approach, and the salt bath composition was targeted at the eutectic composition (LiF:NaF:ZrF4 = 26:37:37 mol%). Early results indicated that the formation of uranium fluoride compounds would be problematic. Other salt bath compositions were investigated in order to eliminate the uranium fluoride production (LiF:NaF = 61:39 mol% and LiF:NaF:KF = 46.5:11.5:42 mol% ). Zirconium metal was used as the crucible for the molten salt. Three plating methods were used—isopotential, galvano static, and pulsed plating. The molten salt method for zirconium metal application provided high-quality plating on molybdenum in PNNL’s previous work. A key advantage of this approach is that plating can be performed under conditions that would greatly reduce the quantity of intermetallics that form at the interface between the zirconium and U-10Mo; unlike roll bonding, the molten salt plating approach would allow for complete coverage of the U-10Mo foil with zirconium. When utilizing the experimental parameters developed for zirconium plating onto molybdenum, a uranium fluoride reaction product was formed at the Zr/U-10Mo interface. By controlling the initial plating potential, the uranium fluoride could be prevented; however, the targeted zirconium thickness (25 ±12.5 μm) could not be achieved while maintaining 100% coverage.

  16. CO2 stimulation of photosynthesis is not sustained during long-term (12 years) FACE treatments in Liquidambar styraciflua

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeffrey; Jensen, Anna M; Medlyn, Belinda; Norby, Richard J; Tissue, David Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) often increases photosynthetic CO2 assimilation (A) in field studies of temperate tree species, although there is evidence that the increases may decline through time due to biochemical and morphological acclimation, and environmental constraints. Indeed, at the free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) study in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, A was increased in 12-year-old sweetgum trees following two years of ~40% enhancement of CO2. A was re-assessed a decade later to determine if initial enhancement of CO2 was sustained through time. Measurements were conducted at prevailing CO2 and temperature on detached, re-hydrated branches using a portable gas exchange system. Photosynthetic CO2 response curves (A-Ci curves) were contrasted with earlier measurements using consistent leaf photosynthesis model equations. Relationships between maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and foliar nitrogen (N) and chlorophyll content were assessed. In 1999, light-saturated photosynthesis (Asat) for eCO2 treatments was 15.4 0.8 mol m-2 s-1, 22% higher than aCO2 treatments (P<0.01). By 2009, Asat declined to <50% of 1999 values, and there was no longer a significant effect of eCO2 (Asat = 6.9 or 5.7 0.7 mol m-2 s-1 for eCO2 or aCO2, respectively). In 1999, there was no treatment effect on area-based foliar N; however, by 2008, N content in eCO2 foliage was 17% less than in aCO2 foliage. Photosynthetic N use efficiency (Asat:N) was greater in eCO2 in 1999 resulting in greater Asat despite similar N content, but the enhanced efficiency in eCO2 trees was lost as foliar N declined to sub-optimal levels. There was no treatment difference in the declining linear relationships between Jmax or Vcmax with declining N, or in the ratio of Jmax:Vcmax through time. Results suggest that initial enhancement of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 will not be sustained through time if nitrogen becomes limited.

  17. CO2 stimulation of photosynthesis is not sustained during long-term (12 years) FACE treatments in Liquidambar styraciflua

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Warren, Jeffrey; Jensen, Anna M; Medlyn, Belinda; Norby, Richard J; Tissue, David Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) often increases photosynthetic CO2 assimilation (A) in field studies of temperate tree species, although there is evidence that the increases may decline through time due to biochemical and morphological acclimation, and environmental constraints. Indeed, at the free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) study in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, A was increased in 12-year-old sweetgum trees following two years of ~40% enhancement of CO2. A was re-assessed a decade later to determine if initial enhancement of CO2 was sustained through time. Measurements were conducted at prevailing CO2 and temperature on detached, re-hydrated branches using a portable gas exchange system.more » Photosynthetic CO2 response curves (A-Ci curves) were contrasted with earlier measurements using consistent leaf photosynthesis model equations. Relationships between maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and foliar nitrogen (N) and chlorophyll content were assessed. In 1999, light-saturated photosynthesis (Asat) for eCO2 treatments was 15.4 0.8 mol m-2 s-1, 22% higher than aCO2 treatments (P<0.01). By 2009, Asat declined to <50% of 1999 values, and there was no longer a significant effect of eCO2 (Asat = 6.9 or 5.7 0.7 mol m-2 s-1 for eCO2 or aCO2, respectively). In 1999, there was no treatment effect on area-based foliar N; however, by 2008, N content in eCO2 foliage was 17% less than in aCO2 foliage. Photosynthetic N use efficiency (Asat:N) was greater in eCO2 in 1999 resulting in greater Asat despite similar N content, but the enhanced efficiency in eCO2 trees was lost as foliar N declined to sub-optimal levels. There was no treatment difference in the declining linear relationships between Jmax or Vcmax with declining N, or in the ratio of Jmax:Vcmax through time. Results suggest that initial enhancement of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 will not be sustained through time if nitrogen becomes limited.« less

  18. Wadter Resources Data Ohio: Water year 1994. Volume 2, St. Lawrence River Basin and Statewide Project Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-12-31

    The Water Resources Division of the US Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with State agencies, obtains a large amount of data each water year (a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is identified by the calendar year in which it ends) pertaining to the water resources of Ohio. These data, accumulated during many years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the USGS, they are published annually in this report series entitled ``Water Resources Data--Ohio.`` This report (in two volumes) includes records on surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for streamflow-gaging stations, miscellaneous sites, and crest-stage stations; (2) stage and content records for streams, lakes, and reservoirs; (3) water-quality data for streamflow-gaging stations, wells, synaptic sites, and partial-record sites; and (4) water-level data for observation wells. Locations of lake- and streamflow-gaging stations, water-quality stations, and observation wells for which data are presented in this volume are shown in figures ga through 8b. The data in this report represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the USGS and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Ohio. This series of annual reports for Ohio began with the 1961 water year with a report that contained only data relating to the quantities of surface water. For the 1964 water year, a similar report was introduced that contained only data relating to water quality. Beginning with the 1975 water year, the report was changed to present (in two to three volumes) data on quantities of surface water, quality of surface and ground water, and ground-water levels.

  19. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 87 -1.14% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 46 46 0% / Females 42 41 -2.38% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 0 -100% ↓ EJ/EK 4 2 -50.00% ↓ NN (Engineering) 12 12 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 68 70 2.94% ↑ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 3 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 2 2 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 5 5 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 5 6 20.00% ↑ Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 0 0 0% / Asian

  20. Experimental Validation of LLNL Finite Element Codes for Nonlinear Seismic Simulations (Progress, Year 1 of 2)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alves, S W; Noble, C R

    2006-12-06

    Shake table tests were performed on a full-scale 7-story slice of a reinforced concrete building at UC San Diego between October 2005 and January 2006. The tests were performed on the NEES Large High-Performance Outdoor Shake Table (LHPOST) at the Engelkirk Structural Engineering Center of UCSD. The structure was subjected to four uniaxial earthquake ground motions of increasing amplitude. The accelerations measured at the base of the structure and the measured roof displacements have been provided by UCSD. Details of the building construction have also been provided by UCSD. The measured response of this structure was used to assess the capability of the homogenized rebar model in DYNA3D/ParaDyn [1,2] to simulate the seismic response of reinforced concrete structures. The homogenized rebar model is a composite version of the Karagozian & Case concrete model [3]. Work has been done to validate this material model for use in blast simulations, but seismic simulations require longer durations. The UCSD experiment provides full-scale data that can be used to validate seismic modeling capabilities.

  1. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  2. Table 2.5 Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures by End Use, Selected Years, 1978-2005

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5 Household 1 Energy Consumption and Expenditures by End Use, Selected Years, 1978-2005 Year Space Heating Air Conditioning Water Heating Appliances, 2 Electronics, and Lighting Natural Gas Elec- tricity 3 Fuel Oil 4 LPG 5 Total Electricity 3 Natural Gas Elec- tricity 3 Fuel Oil 4 LPG 5 Total Natural Gas Elec- tricity 3 LPG 5 Total Consumption (quadrillion Btu)<//td> 1978 4.26 0.40 2.05 0.23 6.94 0.31 1.04 0.29 0.14 0.06 1.53 0.28 1.46 0.03 1.77 1980 3.41 .27 1.30 .23 5.21 .36 1.15 .30 .22

  3. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  5. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    5 79 -7.06% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 59 57 -3.39% ↓ Females 26 22 -15.38% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 0 -100% ↓ EJ/EK 4 3 -25.00% ↓ EN 05 3 2 -33.33% ↓ EN 04 22 22 0% / EN 03 8 8 0% / NN (Engineering) 16 15 -6.25% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 28 26 -7.14% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 3 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 2 2 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 1 1 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 5 4 -20.00% ↓ African American Female (AA,F) 3 2

  6. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    97 180 -8.63% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 105 89 -15.24% ↓ Females 92 91 -1.09% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 14 13 -7.14% ↓ EX 1 1 0% / EJ/EK 3 3 0% / EN 05 1 1 0% / EN 04 4 2 -50.00% ↓ EN 03 1 1 0% / EN 00 0 3 100% ↑ NN (Engineering) 35 27 -22.86% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 135 126 -6.67% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 2 0% / GS 15 0 1 100% ↑ GS 13 1 0 -100% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 2 1 -50.00% ↓ American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 0 0 0% /

  7. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    1 14 27.27% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 9 12 33.33% ↑ Females 2 2 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 SES 2 2 0% / EJ/EK 1 1 0% / EN 04 0 1 100% ↑ EN 00 0 1 100% ↑ NN (Engineering) 5 5 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 3 4 33.33% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 0 0 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 0 0 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 0 0 0% / Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 1 1 0% / Asian American Pacific

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  9. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  10. Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves, cities and forecasting ... "In the last few years, there's been a big push to get instruments into urban areas." ...

  11. Table 2.4 Household Energy Consumption by Census Region, Selected Years, 1978-2009 (Quadrillion Btu, Except as Noted)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Household 1 Energy Consumption by Census Region, Selected Years, 1978-2009 (Quadrillion Btu, Except as Noted) Census Region 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1987 1990 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 United States Total (does not include wood) 10.56 9.74 9.32 9.29 8.58 9.04 9.13 9.22 10.01 10.25 9.86 10.55 10.18 Natural Gas 5.58 5.31 4.97 5.27 4.74 4.98 4.83 4.86 5.27 5.28 4.84 4.79 4.69 Electricity 3 2.47 2.42 2.48 2.42 2.35 2.48 2.76 3.03 3.28 3.54 3.89 4.35 4.39 Distillate Fuel Oil and Kerosene 2.19

  12. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  13. Emissions Inventory Report Summary: Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative Code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73) for Calendar Year 2001

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Margorie Stockton

    2003-04-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory is subject to annual emissions-reporting requirements for regulated air contaminants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20.2.73 NMAC), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The applicability of the requirements is based on the Laboratory's potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, or volatile organic compounds. For calendar year 2001, the Technical Area 3 steam plant was the primary source of criteria air pollutants from the Laboratory, while research and development activities were the primary source of volatile organic compounds. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20.2.72 NMAC. Hazardous air pollutant emissions from chemical use for research and development activities were also reported.

  14. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  15. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    91 81 -10.99% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 67 56 -16.42% ↓ Females 24 25 4.17% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 2 100% ↑ EJ/EK 9 8 -11.11% ↓ EN 04 25 22 -12.00% ↓ NN (Engineering) 24 20 -16.67% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 29 26 -10.34% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 3 3 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 2 2 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 3 3 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 0 0 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 0 0 0% / Asian American Pacific Islander

  16. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 79 -5.95% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 59 55 -6.78% ↓ Females 25 24 -4.00% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 3 3 0% / EJ/EK 4 4 0% / EN 04 2 1 -50.00% ↓ NN (Engineering) 20 20 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 55 51 -7.27% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 0 0 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 10 10 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 9 8 -11.11% ↓ Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 2 2 0% / Asian American Pacific

  17. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    79 164 -8.38% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 100 92 -8.00% ↓ Females 79 72 -8.86% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 8 8 0% / EJ/EK 4 3 -25.00% ↓ EN 04 11 11 0% / EN 03 1 1 0% / EN 00 0 2 100% ↑ NN (Engineering) 39 32 -17.95% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 111 104 -6.31% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 5 3 -40.00% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 1 2 100% ↑ American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 2 1 -50.00% ↓ African American Male (AA,M) 4 3 -25.00% ↓ African American

  18. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    40 36 -10.00% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 18 18 0% / Females 22 18 -18.18% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 3 2 -33.33% ↓ EJ/EK 1 1 0% / EN 03 1 1 0% / NN (Engineering) 3 3 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 30 27 -10.00% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 2 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 0 0 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 1 1 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 1 1 0% / Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 0 0 0% /

  19. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    9 209 -8.73% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 76 76 0% / Females 153 133 -13.07% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 9 6 -33.33% ↓ EJ/EK 1 1 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 208 194 -6.73% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 11 8 -27.27% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 2 2 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 3 2 -33.33% ↓ African American Male (AA,M) 10 10 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 39 36 -7.69% ↓ Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 1 1 0% / Asian American

  20. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 80 -8.05% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 62 57 -8.06% ↓ Females 25 23 -8.00% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 1 0% / EJ/EK 3 3 0% / EN 05 1 1 0% / EN 04 27 24 -11.11% ↓ EN 03 1 0 -100% ↓ NN (Engineering) 26 25 -3.85% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 26 24 -7.69% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 2 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 1 1 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 1 1 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 3 2 -33.33% ↓ African American Female (AA,F) 3 3 0% / Asian

  1. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  2. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  3. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  4. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    21 -4.55% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 10 8 -20.00% ↓ Females 12 13 8.33% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 10 7 -30.00% ↓ EX 0 2 100% ↑ EJ/EK 1 1 0% / EN 05 0 1 100% ↑ EN 04 0 1 100% ↑ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 9 8 -11.11% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 1 0% / ED 00 1 0 -100% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 2 1 -50.00% ↓ African American Male (AA,M) 1 1 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 5 4 -20.00% ↓ Asian

  5. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    4 30 -11.76% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 16 14 -12.50% ↓ Females 18 16 -11.11% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 1 0% / EJ/EK 3 1 -66.67% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 29 27 -6.90% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 1 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 1 1 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 2 2 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 3 3 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 7 6 -14.29% ↓ Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 1 1 0% / Asian American Pacific Islander

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  8. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  9. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  10. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  11. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  12. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  13. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  14. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  15. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  16. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  17. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  18. Emissions Inventory Report Summary: Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative Code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20.2.73 NMAC) for Calendar Year 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. Stockton

    2005-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory is subject to annual emissions-reporting requirements for regulated air pollutants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20.2.73 NMAC), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The applicability of the requirements is based on the Laboratory's potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, or volatile organic compounds. For calendar year 2003, the Technical Area 3 steam plant and the air curtain destructors were the primary sources of criteria air pollutants from the Laboratory, while the air curtain destructors and chemical use associated with research and development activities were the primary sources of volatile organic compounds and hazardous air pollutants. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20.2.72 NMAC. Hazardous air pollutant emissions were reported from chemical use as well as from all combustion sources. In addition, estimates of particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 micrometers and ammonia were provided as requested by the New Mexico Environment Department, Air Quality Bureau.

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  20. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  1. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  2. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  4. Emissions Inventory Report Summary: Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73) for Calendar Year 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) is subject to emissions reporting requirements for regulated air contaminants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73, (20 NMAC 2.73), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The Laboratory has the potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). For 1997, combustion products from the industrial sources contributed the greatest amount of regulated air emissions from the Laboratory. Research and development activities contributed the greatest amount of VOCs. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20 NMAC 2.72, Construction Permits.

  5. Emissions Inventory Report Summary Reporting Requirements for the New Mexico Administrative Code, Title 20, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73) for Calendar Year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Air Quality Group, ESH-17

    1999-09-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) is subject to emissions reporting requirements for regulated air contaminants under Title 20 of the New Mexico Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Part 73 (20 NMAC 2.73), Notice of Intent and Emissions Inventory Requirements. The Laboratory has the potential to emit 100 tons per year of suspended particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, and volatile organic compounds. For 1998, combustion products from the industrial sources contributed the greatest amount of criteria air pollutants from the Laboratory. Research and development activities contributed the greatest amount of volatile organic compounds. Emissions of beryllium and aluminum were reported for activities permitted under 20 NMAC 2.72 Construction Permits.

  6. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    7 35 -5.41% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 27 25 -7.41% ↓ Females 10 10 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 1 0% / EN 05 1 1 0% / EN 04 11 10 -9.09% ↓ NN (Engineering) 8 8 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 14 15 7.14% ↑ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 2 0 -100% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 1 1 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 1 1 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 3 3 0% / Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 0 0 0% /

  7. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    41 155 9.93% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 92 106 15.22% ↑ Females 49 49 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 SES 8 8 0% / EX 1 1 0% / EJ/EK 4 4 0% / EN 05 11 10 -9.09% ↓ EN 04 11 14 27.27% ↑ EN 03 2 5 150% ↑ NN (Engineering) 60 63 5.00% ↑ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 44 50 13.64% ↑ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 1 1 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 1 1 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 7 10 42.86% ↑ African American Female (AA,F) 13 11 -15.38% ↓ Asian American

  8. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    *Total number of Employees 122 112 -8.20% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 90 84 -6.67% ↓ Females 32 28 -12.50% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 SES 26 24 -7.69% ↓ EJ/EK 3 3 0% / EN 05 8 9 12.50% ↑ NN (Engineering) 48 47 -2.08% ↓ NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 30 26 -13.33% ↓ NU (Tech/Admin Support) 7 3 -57.14% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 1 1 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 3 3 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 7 6 -14.29%

  9. Fiscal Year 2008 Phased Construction Completion Report for EU Z2-33 in Zone 2, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bechtel Jacobs

    2008-09-11

    The Record of Decision for Soil, Buried Waste, and Subsurface Structure Actions in Zone 2, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOE/OR/01-2161&D2) (Zone 2 ROD) acknowledged that most of the 800 acres in Zone 2 were contaminated, but that sufficient data to confirm the levels of contamination were lacking. The Zone 2 ROD further specified that a sampling strategy for filling the data gaps would be developed. The Remedial Design Report/Remedial Action Work Plan for Zone 2 Soils, Slabs, and Subsurface Structures, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOE/OR/01-2224&D3) (Zone 2 RDR/RAWP) defined the sampling strategy as the Dynamic Verification Strategy (DVS), generally following the approach used for characterization of the Zone 1 exposure units (EUs). The Zone 2 ROD divided the Zone 2 area into seven geographic areas and 44 EUs. To facilitate the data quality objectives (DQOs) of the DVS process, the Zone 2 RDR/RAWP regrouped the 44 EUs into 12 DQO scoping EU groups. These groups facilitated the DQO process by placing similar facilities and their support facilities together and allowing identification of data gaps. The EU groups were no longer pertinent after DQO planning was completed and characterization was conducted as areas became accessible. As the opportunity to complete characterization became available, the planned DVS program and remedial actions (RAs) were completed for EU Z2-33. Remedial action was also performed at two additional areas in adjacent EU Z2-42 because of their close proximity and similar nature to a small surface soil RA in EU Z2-33. Remedial actions for building slabs performed in EU Z2-33 during fiscal year (FY) 2007 were reported in the Fiscal Year 2007 Phased Construction Completion Report for the Zone 2 Soils, Slabs, and Subsurface Structures at East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOE/OR/01-2723&D1). Recommended RAs for EU Z2-42 were described in the Fiscal Year 2006 Phased Construction Completion Report for the Zone 2 Soils, Slabs, and Subsurface Structures at East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOE/OR/01-2317&D2). Remedial actions performed in the Balance of Site (BOS) Laboratory Area of EU Z2-33 and two small areas in EU Z2-42 are described in Sects. 5 through 10 of this Phased Construction Completion Report (PCCR). The purpose of this PCCR is to address the following: (1) Document DVS characterization results for EU Z2-33; (2) Describe and document the risk evaluation and determine if the EU meets the Zone 2 ROD requirements for unrestricted industrial use to 10 ft bgs; (3) Identify additional areas not defined in the Zone 2 ROD that require remediation based on the DVS evaluation results; and (4) Describe RAs performed in the EU Z2-33 BOS Laboratory Area and two small areas in EU Z2-42. Approximately 18 acres in EU Z2-33 are addressed in this PCCR. Based on the results of the DVS evaluation and RAs performed, all 18 acres are recommended for unrestricted industrial use to 10 ft bgs. Three Federal Facility Agreement sites are addressed and recommended for no further action within this acreage, including: (1) K-1004-L Recirculating Cooling Water Lines Leak Sites; (2) K-1044 Heavy Equipment Repair Shop; and (3) K-1015-A Laundry Pit. Remedial actions for EU Z2-33 were developed in response to DVS characterization results described in the EU Z2-33 Technical Memorandum (Appendix A) and to support reindustrialization of the East Tennessee Technology Park as a commercial industrial park. Remediation criteria were designed for the protection of a future industrial worker who normally would not have the potential for exposure to soil below 10ft bgs. Accordingly, the Zone 2 ROD required land use controls to prevent disturbance of soils below 10 ft deep and to restrict future land use to industrial/commercial activities. In response to stakeholder comments, the U.S. Department of Energy agreed to re-evaluate the need for such land use restrictions. This document includes a screening evaluation to determine the likelihood of land use controls in EU Z2-33 being modified to: (1) eliminate the restriction on disturbance of soils below 10 ft bgs where data indicate the absence of residual contamination at any depth that would result in an unacceptable risk to the future industrial worker, and (2) permit alternative land uses that would be protective of future site occupants. Results of this screening evaluation indicate a low probability that restrictions on disturbing soil below 10 ft bgs could be safely eliminated for EU Z2-33. A qualitative screening evaluation considered the likelihood of unrestricted land use being protective of future site occupants. Based on this qualitative assessment, all 18 acres addressed in this PCCR were assigned a low probability for consideration of release for unrestricted land use.

  10. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE 4 th Solar Integration Workshop Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Anthony Florita, and Bri-Mathias Hodge Berlin, Germany November 10, 2014 NREL/PR-5000-63082 2 Motivation and Scope * The economic benefits from renewable energy forecasting are largely unquantified in the power community o Current renewable energy penetration levels in the United States are often too low to appreciably quantify the value of improving renewable energy

  11. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  12. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  13. U.S. summer gasoline prices dive this year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the price for regular-grade gasoline will average 2.04 per gallon this summer. That's down about 60 ...

  14. U.S. gasoline consumption highest in 8 years

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said gasoline consumption increased by 2.7% during the first eight months of 2015 and should rise by an ...

  15. Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang; Zhou, Nan; Levine, Mark; Fridley, David

    2007-07-01

    China's 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) sets an ambitious target for energy-efficiency improvement: energy intensity of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) should be reduced by 20% from 2005 to 2010 (NDRC, 2006). This is the first time that a quantitative and binding target has been set for energy efficiency, and signals a major shift in China's strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energy development. The 20% energy intensity target also translates into an annual reduction of over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 by 2010, making the Chinese effort one of most significant carbon mitigation effort in the world today. While it is still too early to tell whether China will achieve this target, this paper attempts to understand the trend in energy intensity in China and to explore a variety of options toward meeting the 20% target using a detailed end-use energy model.

  16. Calendar Year 2008 Program Benefits for ENERGY STAR Labeled Products

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Homan, GregoryK; Sanchez, Marla; Brown, RichardE; Lai, Judy

    2010-08-24

    This paper presents current and projected savings for ENERGY STAR labeled products, and details the status of the model as implemented in the September 2009 spreadsheets. ENERGY STAR is a voluntary energy efficiency labeling program operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE), designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Since the program inception in 1992, ENERGY STAR has become a leading international brand for energy efficient products, and currently labels more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, heating, cooling and ventilation equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. ENERGY STAR's central role in the development of regional, national and international energy programs necessitates an open process whereby its program achievements to date as well as projected future savings are shared with stakeholders. This report presents savings estimates for ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of energy, dollar, and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2008, annual forecasts for 2009 and 2010, and cumulative savings estimates for the period 1993 through 2008 and cumulative forecasts for the period 2009 through 2015. Through 2008 the program saved 8.8 Quads of primary energy and avoided the equivalent of 158 metric tones carbon (MtC). The forecast for the period 2009-2015 is 18.1 Quads or primary energy saved and 316 MtC emissions avoided. The sensitivity analysis bounds the best estimate of carbon avoided between 104 MtC and 213 MtC (1993 to 2008) and between 206 MtC and 444 MtC (2009 to 2015). In this report we address the following questions for ENERGY STAR labeled products: (1) How are ENERGY STAR impacts quantified; (2) What are the ENERGY STAR achievements; and (3) What are the limitations to our method?

  17. Year Modules

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    dollars per peak watt) Year Modules 2003 $3.17 2004 $2.99 2005 $3.19 2006 $3.50 2007 $3.37 2008 $3.49 2009 $2.79 2010 $1.96 2011 $1.59 2012 $1.15 2013 $0.75 Table 4. Average value of photovoltaic modules, 2003-2013 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.' Note: Dollars are not adjusted for inflation.

  18. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  19. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  20. 70 Years of Innovations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    70 Years of Innovations aboutassetsimagesicon-70th2.jpg Innovations: Celebrating 70 Years Since 1943, some of the world's smartest and most dedicated technical people have ...

  1. Visualizing the Surface Infrastructure Used to Move 2 MtCO2/year from the Dakota Gasification Company to the Weyburn CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Project: Version of July 1, 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.

    2009-07-09

    Google Earth Pro has been employed to create an interactive flyover of the worlds largest operational carbon dioxide capture and storage project. The visualization focuses on the transport and storage of 2 MtCO2/year which is captured from the Dakota Gasification Facility (Beula, North Dakota) and transported 205 miles and injected into the Weyburn oil field in Southeastern Saskatchewan.

  2. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  3. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  4. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  5. U.S. oil production expected to decline over next year, rebounding...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil production which averaged 9.4 million barrels per day during the first half of this year is ...

  6. Prospective Study Evaluating Postoperative Radiotherapy Plus 2-Year Androgen Suppression for Post-Radical Prostatectomy Patients With Pathologic T3 Disease and/or Positive Surgical Margins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choo, Richard [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (United States)], E-mail: choo.c@mayo.edu; Danjoux, Cyril; Gardner, Sandra; Morton, Gerard; Szumacher, Ewa; Loblaw, D. Andrew; Cheung, Patrick [Department of Radiation Oncology, Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Pearse, Maria [Department of Radiation Oncology, Auckland Hospital, Auckland (New Zealand)

    2009-10-01

    Purpose: To determine the efficacy of a combined approach of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) plus 2-year androgen suppression (AS) for patients with pathologic T3 disease (pT3) and/or positive surgical margins (PSM) after radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods and Materials: A total of 78 patients with pT3 and/or PSM after RP were treated with RT plus 2-year AS, as per a pilot, prospective study. Androgen suppression started within 1 month after the completion of RT and consisted of nilutamide for 4 weeks and buserelin acetate depot subcutaneously every 2 months for 2 years. Relapse-free rate, including freedom from prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse, was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate prognostic factors for relapse. Prostate-specific antigen relapse was defined as a PSA rise above 0.2 ng/mL, with two consecutive increases over a minimum of 3 months. Results: The median age was 61 years at the time of RP. The median interval between RP and postoperative RT was 4.2 months. Forty-nine patients had undetectable PSA (<0.2 ng/mL), and 29 had persistently detectable postoperative PSA at the time of the protocol treatment. Median follow-up from RT was 6.4 years. Relapse-free rates at 5 and 7 years were 94.4% and 86.3%, respectively. Survival rates were 96% at 5 years and 93.1% at 7 years. On Cox regression analysis, persistently detectable postoperative PSA and pT3b-T4 were significant predictors for relapse. Conclusion: The combined treatment of postoperative RT plus 2-year AS yielded encouraging results for patients with pT3 and/or PSM and warrants a confirmatory study.

  7. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  8. Year Modules

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Annual photovoltaic module shipments, 2003-2013 (peak kilowatts) Year Modules 2003 80,062 2004 143,274 2005 204,996 2006 320,208 2007 494,148 2008 920,693 2009 1,188,879 2010 2,644,498 2011 3,772,075 2012 4,655,005 2013 4,984,881 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.' Note: Includes both U.S. Shipments and Exports.

  9. Fact #862 March 2, 2015 Light Vehicle Production in Mexico More than Doubled in Last Five Years

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Total production of light vehicles in Mexico remained nearly flat between 2004 and 2009 but in the following five-year span from 2009 to 2014, production more than doubled. In 2004, cars and light...

  10. LNG to the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davenport, S.T.

    1984-04-01

    By 2000, about 190 MM metric-tpy of LNG will be moving in world trade, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer By the year 2000, approximately 190 million metric tons per year of LNG will be moving in worldwide trade. Production of LNG will be spread throughout most of the world, with Asia-Pacific as the dominant producer. LNG will be delivered only to the heavily industrialized areas of North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The success of any LNG project will be dependent on its individual economics, market needs, financial planning, and governmental permit processes. We hope industry will be able to put together the LNG projects required to meet the quanitities of production forecast here for the year 2000.

  11. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  12. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  13. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  14. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  15. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  16. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  17. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  18. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  20. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  1. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  2. R&D100: CO2 Memzyme

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rempe, Susan; Brinker, Jeff; Jiang, Ying-Bing; Vanegas, Juan

    2015-11-19

    By combining a water droplet loaded with CO2 enzymes in an ultrathin nanopore on a flexible substrate, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories realized the first technology that meets and exceeds DOE targets for cost-effective CO2 capture. When compared with the nearest membrane competitor, this technology delivers a three times permeation rate, twenty times higher selectivity, and ten time lower fabrication cost. The CO2 Memzyme has the potential to remove 90% of CO2 emissions and is forecasted to save the U.S. coal industry $90 billion a year compared to conventional technology.

  3. Regulatory Assistance, Stakeholder Outreach, and Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Activities In Support Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Deployment: Task 2.1.7 Permitting and Planning Fiscal Year 2012 Year-End Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geerlofs, Simon H.; Hanna, Luke A.; Judd, Chaeli R.; Blake, Kara M.

    2012-09-01

    This fiscal year 2012 year-end report summarizes activities carried out under DOE Water Power task 2.1.7, Permitting and Planning. Activities under Task 2.1.7 address the concerns of a wide range of stakeholders with an interest in the development of the MHK industry, including regulatory and resource management agencies, tribes, NGOs, and industry. Objectives for 2.1.7 are the following: • To work with stakeholders to streamline the MHK regulatory permitting process. • To work with stakeholders to gather information on needs and priorities for environmental assessment of MHK development. • To communicate research findings and directions to the MHK industry and stakeholders. • To engage in spatial planning processes in order to further the development of the MHK industry. These objectives are met through three subtasks, each of which are described in this report: • 2.1.7.1—Regulatory Assistance • 2.1.7.2—Stakeholder Outreach • 2.1.7.3—Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning As the MHK industry works with the regulatory community and stakeholders to plan, site, permit and license MHK technologies they have an interest in a predictable, efficient, and transparent process. Stakeholders and regulators have an interest in processes that result in sustainable use of ocean space with minimal effects to existing ocean users. Both stakeholders and regulators have an interest in avoiding legal challenges by meeting the intent of federal, state, and local laws that govern siting and operation of MHK technologies. The intention of work under 2.1.7 is to understand these varied interests, explore mechanisms to reduce conflict, identify efficiencies, and ultimately identify pathways to reduce the regulatory costs, time, and potential environmental impacts associated with developing, siting, permitting, and deploying MHK systems.

  4. Summary of Research through Phase II/Year 2 of Initially Approved 3 Phase/3 Year Project - Establishing the Relationship between Fracture-Related Dolomite and Primary Rock Fabric on the Distribution of Reservoirs in the Michigan Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Grammer

    2007-09-30

    This final scientific/technical report covers the first 2 years (Phases I and II of an originally planned 3 Year/3 Phase program). The project was focused on evaluating the relationship between fracture-related dolomite and dolomite constrained by primary rock fabric in the 3 most prolific reservoir intervals in the Michigan Basin. The characterization of select dolomite reservoirs was the major focus of our efforts in Phases I and II of the project. Structural mapping and log analysis in the Dundee (Devonian) and Trenton/Black River (Ordovician) suggest a close spatial relationship among gross dolomite distribution and regional-scale, wrench fault-related NW-SE and NE-SW structural trends. A high temperature origin for much of the dolomite in these 2 studied intervals (based upon fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures and stable isotopic analyses,) coupled with persistent association of this dolomite in reservoirs coincident with wrench fault-related features, is strong evidence for these reservoirs being influenced by hydrothermal dolomitization. In the Niagaran (Silurian), there is a general trend of increasing dolomitization shelfward, with limestone predominant in more basinward positions. A major finding is that facies types, when analyzed at a detailed level, are directly related to reservoir porosity and permeability in these dolomites which increases the predictability of reservoir quality in these units. This pattern is consistent with our original hypothesis of primary facies control on dolomitization and resulting reservoir quality at some level. The identification of distinct and predictable vertical stacking patterns within a hierarchical sequence and cycle framework provides a high degree of confidence at this point that the results should be exportable throughout the basin. Much of the data synthesis and modeling for the project was scheduled to be part of Year 3/Phase III, but the discontinuation of funding after Year 2 precluded those efforts. Therefore, the results presented in this document are not final, and in many cases represent a report of 'progress to date' as numerous tasks were scheduled to extend into Year 3.

  5. Implementation of Division B, Title I, Section 1101(a)(2) of the Department of Defense and Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Acquisition Letter 2011-04 provides implementing instructions and guidance for Section 1101(a)(2) of the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act of 2011, Pub. L. 112-10 (hereinafter "Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act of 2011). Section 1101(a)(2) of the Act provides that, unless otherwise specified, the authority and conditions provided for projects or activities (including the costs of direct loans and loan guarantees) appropriated, authorized, or funded in the Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act of 2010, Pub. L. 111-85, still apply.

  6. Hanford Site Environmental Restoration Program 1994 fiscal year work plan. Work breakdown structure 2.0: Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-22

    Site Management System (SMS) guidance requires a Fiscal Year Work Plan (FYWP) to be prepared for the Environmental Restoration (ER) Mission Area and all related programs. This revision is a complete update to cover the FY 1994 time period. This document describes the overall ER Missions Area and provides FYWP appendices for each of the following five program areas: Remedial Action (RA); Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D); Project Management and Support (PM&S); Surveillance and Maintenance (S&M); and Disposal Facilities (DF).

  7. A Multi-Year Plan for Enhancing Turbulence Modeling in Hydra-TH Revised and Updated Version 2.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Thomas M.; Berndt, Markus; Baglietto, Emilio; Magolan, Ben

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to document a multi-year plan for enhancing turbulence modeling in Hydra-TH for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Hydra-TH is being developed to the meet the high- fidelity, high-Reynolds number CFD based thermal hydraulic simulation needs of the program. This work is being conducted within the thermal hydraulics methods (THM) focus area. This report is an extension of THM CASL milestone L3:THM.CFD.P10.02 [33] (March, 2015) and picks up where it left off. It will also serve to meet the requirements of CASL THM level three milestone, L3:THM.CFD.P11.04, scheduled for completion September 30, 2015. The objectives of this plan will be met by: maturation of recently added turbulence models, strategic design/development of new models and systematic and rigorous testing of existing and new models and model extensions. While multi-phase turbulent flow simulations are important to the program, only single-phase modeling will be considered in this report. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also an important modeling methodology. However, at least in the first year, the focus is on steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling.

  8. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  9. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  10. Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves, cities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and forecasting | Argonne National Laboratory Twenty years after '95: What climate change means for heat waves, cities and forecasting By Payal Marathe * October 1, 2015 Tweet EmailPrint The 1995 Chicago heat wave was a defining moment for the city. With four days of non-stop, sweltering heat and humidity, hospital emergency rooms were overwhelmed. There were thousands of heat-related illnesses and more than 700 deaths. Two decades later, public health and government officials are

  11. Office of Technology Development`s Research, Development, Demonstration, Testing and Evaluation Mid-Year Program Review. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This document, Volume 2, presents brief summaries of programs being investigated at USDOE sites for waste processing, remedial action, underground storage tank remediation, and robotic applications in waste management.

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  13. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  14. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  15. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  16. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  17. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  18. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    79 67 -15.19% YEAR 2013 2014 Males 44 34 -22.73% Females 35 33 -5.71% YEAR 2013 2014 SES 6 4 -33.33% EJEK 1 1 0% EN 05 9 8 -11.11% EN 04 6 5 -16.67% NN...

  19. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 2 (Appendices I, section 5 and II, section 1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 2 contains the last section of Appendix I, Radiative heat transfer in kraft recovery boilers, and the first section of Appendix II, The effect of temperature and residence time on the distribution of carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen between gaseous and condensed phase products from low temperature pyrolysis of kraft black liquor.

  20. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 3 (Appendices II, sections 2--3 and III)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 3 contains the following appendix sections: Formation and destruction of nitrogen oxides in recovery boilers; Sintering and densification of recovery boiler deposits laboratory data and a rate model; and Experimental data on rates of particulate formation during char bed burning.

  1. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  2. Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation for Distal Rectal Cancer: 5-Year Updated Results of a Randomized Phase 2 Study of Neoadjuvant Combined Modality Chemoradiation for Distal Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mohiuddin, Mohammed, E-mail: asemuddin@gmail.com [King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)] [King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia); Paulus, Rebecca [RTOG Statistical Department, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)] [RTOG Statistical Department, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mitchell, Edith [Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)] [Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Hanna, Nader [Department of Surgical Oncology, University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, Maryland (United States)] [Department of Surgical Oncology, University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Yuen, Albert [Reading Hospital and Medical Center, Reading, Pennsylvania (United States)] [Reading Hospital and Medical Center, Reading, Pennsylvania (United States); Nichols, Romaine [University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute, Jacksonville, Florida (United States)] [University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute, Jacksonville, Florida (United States); Yalavarthi, Salochna [Ingalls Memorial Hospital, Harvey, Illinois (United States)] [Ingalls Memorial Hospital, Harvey, Illinois (United States); Hayostek, Cherie [Santa Fe Cancer Center, Santa Fe, New Mexico (United States)] [Santa Fe Cancer Center, Santa Fe, New Mexico (United States); Willett, Christopher [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States)] [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To assess the efficacy of 2 different approaches to neoadjuvant chemoradiation for distal rectal cancers. Methods and Materials: One hundred six patients with T3/T4 distal rectal cancers were randomized in a phase 2 study. Patients received either continuous venous infusion (CVI) of 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU), 225 mg/m{sup 2} per day, 7 days per week plus pelvic hyperfractionated radiation (HRT), 45.6 Gy at 1.2 Gy twice daily plus a boost of 9.6 to 14.4 Gy for T3 or T4 cancers (Arm 1), or CVI of 5-FU, 225 mg/m{sup 2} per day, Monday to Friday, plus irinotecan, 50 mg/m{sup 2} once weekly 4, plus pelvic radiation therapy (RT), 45 Gy at 1.8 Gy per day and a boost of 5.4 Gy for T3 and 9 Gy for T4 cancers (Arm 2). Surgery was performed 4 to 10 weeks later. Results: All eligible patients (n=103) are included in this analysis; 2 ineligible patients were excluded, and 1 patient withdrew consent. Ninety-eight of 103 patients (95%) underwent resection. Four patients did not undergo surgery for either disease progression or patient refusal, and 1 patient died during induction chemotherapy. The median time of follow-up was 6.4 years in Arm 1 and 7.0 years in Arm 2. The pathological complete response (pCR) rates were 30% in Arm 1 and 26% in Arm 2. Locoregional recurrence rates were 16% in Arm 1 and 17% in Arm 2. Five-year survival rates were 61% and 75% and Disease-specific survival rates were 78% and 85% for Arm1 and Arm 2, respectively. Five second primaries occurred in patients on Arm 1, and 1 second primary occurred in Arm 2. Conclusions: High rates of disease-specific survival were seen in each arm. Overall survival appears affected by the development of unrelated second cancers. The high pCR rates with 5-FU and higher dose radiation in T4 cancers provide opportunity for increased R0 resections and improved survival.

  3. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 27 -3.57% ↓ YEAR 2013 2014 Males 18 17 -5.56% ↓ Females 10 10 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 SES 1 1 0% / EN 05 1 1 0% / EN 04 4 3 -25.00% ↓ NN (Engineering) 12 12 0% / NQ (Prof/Tech/Admin) 9 9 0% / NU (Tech/Admin Support) 1 1 0% / YEAR 2013 2014 American Indian Alaska Native Male (AIAN,M) 0 0 0% / American Indian Alaskan Native Female (AIAN,F) 1 1 0% / African American Male (AA,M) 4 4 0% / African American Female (AA,F) 3 4 33.33% ↑ Asian American Pacific Islander Male (AAPI,M) 1 1 0% / Asian

  4. Post waterflood CO{sub 2} miscible flood in light oil, fluvial-dominated deltaic reservoir. Annual report, fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-15

    The Port Neches CO{sub 2} flood has been operating for nearly 4 years. The project performance during the past year has been adversely affected by several factors including: water blockage, low residual oil saturation and wellbore mechanical problems. The company attempted to test a new procedure in a new fault block using CO{sub 2} to accelerate primary production in order to improve the primary reserves net present value. The test was abandoned when the discovery well Polk B-39 for the Marg Area 3 was a dry hole. Also, during this period the company terminated all new CO{sub 2} purchases from Cardox for economical reasons, while continuing to recycle produced CO{sub 2}. A data base for FDD reservoirs for the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coast Region was developed by LSU and SAIC. This data base includes reservoir parameters and performance data for reservoirs with significant production and OOIP volumes that are amenable to CO{sub 2} injection. A paper discussing the Port Neches CO{sub 2} project was presented at the 1996 SPE/DOE Symposium on Improved Oil Recovery.

  5. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  6. Fiscal Year 2010 Phased Construction Completion Report for EU Z2-32 in Zone 2, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bechtel Jacobs

    2010-02-01

    The Record of Decision for Soil, Buried Waste, and Subsurface Structure Actions in Zone 2, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOEIORJO 1-2161 &D2) (Zone 2 ROD) acknowledged that most of the 800 acres in Zone 2 were contaminated, but that sufficient data to confirm the levels of contamination were lacking. The Zone 2 ROD further specified that a sampling strategy for filling the data gaps would be developed. The Remedial Design Report/Remedial Action Work Plan for Zone 2 Soils, Slabs, and Subsurface Structures, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOEIORIO 1 -2224&D3) (RDRJRAWP) defined the sampling strategy as the Dynamic Verification Strategy (DVS), generally following the approach used for characterization of the Zone I exposure units (EUs). The Zone 2 ROD divided the Zone 2 area into seven geographic areas and 44 EUs. To facilitate the data quality objectives (DQOs) of the DVS process, the RDR/RAWP regrouped the 44 EUs into 12 DQO scoping EU groups. These groups facilitated the DQO process by placing similar facilities and their support facilities together, which allowed identification of data gaps. The EU groups were no longer pertinent after DQO planning was completed and characterization was conducted as areas became accessible. As the opportunity to complete characterization became available, the planned DVS program was completed for the EU addressed in this document (EU Z2-32). The purpose of this Phased Construction Completion Report (PCCR) is to address the following: (1) Document DVS characterization results for EU Z2-32. (2) Describe and document the risk evaluation and determine if the EU meets the Zone 2 ROD requirements for unrestricted industrial use to 10 ft bgs. (3) Identify additional areas not defined in the Zone 2 ROD that require remediation based on the DVS evaluation results. (4) Describe the remedial action performed in the K-1066-G Yard in EU Z2-32. Approximately 18.4 acres are included in the EU addressed in this PCCR. Based on results of the DVS evaluation, all 18.4 acres are recommended for unrestricted industrial use to 10 ft bgs. There are no Federal Facility Agreement Sites included in Appendix A of the Zone 2 ROD in EU Z2-32. The Zone 2 ROD requires land use controls to prevent disturbance of soils below 10 ft deep and to restrict future land use to industrial/commercial activities. In response to stakeholder comments, the U.S. Department of Energy agreed to re-evaluate the need for such land use restrictions. This document includes a screening evaluation to determine the likelihood of land use controls in EU Z2-32 being modified to: (1) eliminate the restriction on disturbance of soils below 10 ft bgs where data indicate the absence of residual contamination at any depth that would result in an unacceptable risk to the future industrial worker, and (2) permit alternative land uses that would be protective of future site occupants. Results of this screening evaluation indicate a high probability that restrictions on disturbing soil below 10 ft bgs could be safely eliminated for EU Z2-32. A qualitative screening evaluation considered the likelihood of unrestricted land use being protective of future site occupants. Based on this qualitative assessment, all 18.4 acres addressed in this PCCR were assigned a high probability for consideration of release for unrestricted land use. This document contains the main text (Sects. 1 through 13) and one appendix. The main text addresses the purpose for this PCCR as described above. Additional supporting detail (e.g., field work and data summaries, graphics) is provided in the EU Z2-32 technical memorandum (Appendix A). Historical and DVS analytical data used in this PCCR are provided on a compact disc accompanying this document and can be accessed through the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System.

  7. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  8. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  9. Presentation title: This can be up to 2 lines

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 change from prior year forecast Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2015 16 2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Dashed line represents prior 10-year ...

  10. Presentation title: This can be up to 2 lines

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 change from prior year Forecast Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2014 15 2014 Summer Fuels Outlook Dashed line represents prior 10-year ...

  11. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  12. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  13. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  14. Fiscal Year 2007 Phased Construction Completion Report for the Zone 2 Soils, Slabs, and Subsurface Structures at East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    RSI

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of this Phased Construction Completion Report (PCCR) is to present the fiscal year (FY) 2007 results of characterization activities and recommended remedial actions (RAs) for 11 exposure units (EUs) in Zone 2 (Z2-01, Z2-03, Z2-08, Z2-23, Z2-24, Z2-28, Z2-34, Z2-37, Z2-41, Z2-43, and Z2-44) at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP), which is located in the northwest corner of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (Fig. 1). ETTP encompasses a total land area of approximately 5000 acres that has been subdivided into three zones--Zone 1 ({approx}1400 acres), Zone 2 ({approx}800 acres), and the Boundary Area ({approx}2800 acres). Zone 2, which encompasses the highly industrialized portion of ETTP shown in Fig. 1, consists of all formerly secured areas of the facility, including the large processing buildings and direct support facilities; experimental laboratories and chemical and materials handling facilities; materials storage and waste disposal facilities; secure document records libraries; and shipping and receiving warehouses. The Zone 2 Record of Decision for Soil, Buried Waste, and Subsurface Structure Actions in Zone 2, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOE 2005) (Zone 2 ROD) specifies the future end use for Zone 2 acreage as uncontrolled industrial for the upper 10 ft of soils. Characterization activities in these areas were conducted in compliance with the Zone 2 ROD and the Dynamic Verification Strategy (DVS) and data quality objectives (DQOs) presented in the Remedial Design Report/Remedial Action Work Plan for Zone 2 Soils, Slabs, and Subsurface Structures, East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (DOE 2007) (Zone 2 RDR/RAWP). The purpose of this PCCR is to address the following: (1) Document DVS characterization results for the accessible EUs in FY 2007; (2) Describe and document the risk evaluation for each EU, and determine if the EU met the Zone 2 ROD requirements for unrestricted industrial use to 10 ft bgs; (3) Identify additional areas not defined in the Zone 2 ROD that require remediation based on the DVS evaluation results; and (4) Describe the RAs performed in Zone 2. The Zone 2 ROD divided the Zone 2 area into 7 geographic areas and 44 EUs. To facilitate the DQOs of the DVS process, the Zone 2 RDR/RAWP regrouped the 44 EUs into 12 DQO scoping EU groups. These groups facilitated the DQO process by placing similar facilities and their support facilities together and allowed identification of data gaps. The EU groups were no longer pertinent after DQO planning was completed, and characterization was conducted as areas became accessible. As the opportunity to complete characterization became available, the planned DVS program was executed and completed in FY 2007 for the 11 EUs addressed in this document. The main body of this report describes both the DVS process and scope of work performed and the RAs completed. The scope and approach for performing DVS activities performed in FY 2007 that lead to action/no further action decisions are presented in Sects. 2 through 4. RAs performed in FY 2007 are presented in Sects. 5 through 10. Future land use is described in Sect. 11, and the status of all Zone 2 EUs as of this PCCR is presented in Sect. 12.

  15. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    PAY PLAN Change DIVERSITY Change Change As of September 25, 2014 TOTAL WORKFORCE Change GENDER 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 3.1% 1.7% 6.6% 0.9% 0.3% 17.5% 50.0% 2.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Pay...

  16. Y YEAR

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    0% White Female (W,F) 16 16 0% Change As of September 25, 2014 TOTAL WORKFORCE Change GENDER Sandia Field Office PAY PLAN Change DIVERSITY Change 1.2% 8.4% 10.8% 1.2% 32.5%...

  17. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  19. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  20. Field Lysimeter Investigations -- Test results. Low-Level Waste Data Base Development Program: Test results for fiscal years 1990, 1991, 1992, and 1993; Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McConnell, J.W. Jr.; Rogers, R.D.; Brey, R.R.; Neilson, R.M. Jr.; Hilton, L.D.; Jastrow, J.D.; Wickliff Hicks, D.S.; Sanford, W.E.; Sullivan, T.M.

    1995-12-01

    The Field Lysimeter Investigations: Low-Level Waste Data Base Development Program, funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is (a) studying the degradation effects in EPICOR-II organic ion-exchange resins caused by radiation, (b) examining the adequacy of test procedures recommended in the Branch Technical Position on Waste Form to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 61 using solidified EPICOR-II resins, (c) obtaining performance information on solidified EPICOR-II ion-exchange resins in a disposal environment, and (d) determining the condition of EPICOR-II liners. Results of the second 4 years of data acquisition from the field testing are presented and discussed. During the continuing field testing, both portland type 1--2 cement and Dow vinyl ester-styrene waste forms are being tested in lysimeter arrays located at Argonne National Laboratory-East in Illinois and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The experimental equipment is described and results of waste form characterization using tests recommended by the NRC`s ``Technical Position on Waste Form`` are presented. The study is designed to provide continuous data on nuclide release and movement, as well as environmental conditions, over a 20-year period.

  1. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  2. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  3. Buildings Energy Data Book: 2.1 Residential Sector Energy Consumption

    Buildings Energy Data Book [EERE]

    7 Range 10 4 48 Clothes Dryer 359 (2) 4 49 Water Heating Water Heater-Family of 4 40 64 (3) 26 294 Water Heater-Family of 2 40 32 (3) 12 140 Note(s): Source(s): 1) $1.139/therm. 2) Cycles/year. 3) Gallons/day. A.D. Little, EIA-Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Reference Case, Sept. 2, 1998, p. 30 for range and clothes dryer; LBNL, Energy Data Sourcebook for the U.S. Residential Sector, LBNL-40297, Sept. 1997, p. 62-67 for water heating; GAMA,

  4. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  5. Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter & Hurricane Jefferson Lab's Emergency Management Severe Weather Team continues monitoring the forecasts and conditions...

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  7. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  8. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  9. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  10. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  11. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  12. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  13. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  14. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  15. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  16. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  17. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  19. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  20. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  1. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  2. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  3. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  4. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  5. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  7. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  8. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  9. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  10. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  11. Calendar Year 2009 Program Benefits for ENERGY STAR Labeled Products

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Homan, Gregory K; Sanchez, Marla C.; Brown, Richard E.

    2010-11-15

    ENERGY STAR is a voluntary energy efficiency labeling program operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE), designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Since the program inception in 1992, ENERGY STAR has become a leading international brand for energy efficient products, and currently labels more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, heating, cooling and ventilation equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. ENERGY STAR's central role in the development of regional, national and international energy programs necessitates an open process whereby its program achievements to date as well as projected future savings are shared with stakeholders. This report presents savings estimates from the use ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of energy, dollar, and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2009, annual forecasts for 2010 and 2011, and cumulative savings estimates for the period 1993 through 2009 and cumulative forecasts for the period 2010 through 2015. Through 2009 the program saved 9.5 Quads of primary energy and avoided the equivalent of 170 million metric tons carbon (MMTC). The forecast for the period 2009-2015 is 11.5 Quads or primary energy saved and 202 MMTC emissions avoided. The sensitivity analysis bounds the best estimate of carbon avoided between 110 MMTC and 231 MMTC (1993 to 2009) and between 130 MMTC and 285 MMTC (2010 to 2015).

  12. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  13. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  14. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  15. PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Revenue Basis. The FB CRAC Revenue Basis is the total generation revenue (not including LB CRAC) for the loads subject to FB CRAC plus Slice loads, for the year in which the FB...

  16. HPSS Yearly Network Traffic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    HPSS Yearly Network Traffic HPSS Yearly Network Traffic Yearly Summary of IO Traffic Between Storage and Network Destinations These bar charts show the total transfer traffic for...

  17. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  20. HPSS Yearly Network Traffic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    HPSS Yearly Network Traffic HPSS Yearly Network Traffic Yearly Summary of I/O Traffic Between Storage and Network Destinations These bar charts show the total transfer traffic for each year between storage and network destinations (systems within and outside of NERSC). Traffic for the current year is an estimate derived by scaling the known months traffic up to 12 months. The years shown are calendar years. The first graph shows the overall growth in network traffic to storage over the years.

  1. Post waterflood CO2 miscible flood in light oil fluvial - dominated deltaic reservoirs. Technical progress report, October 1, 1994--December 30, 1994. 1st Quarter, fiscal year 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-01-15

    Production is averaging about 450 BOPD for the quarter. The fluctuation was primarily due to a temporary shutdown of CO{sub 2} delivery and maturing of the first WAG cycle. CO{sub 2} and water injection were reversed again in order to optimize changing yields and water cuts in the producing wells. Measured BHP was close to the anticipated value. A limited CO{sub 2} volume of 120 MMCF was injected to stimulate well Kuhn No. 6 to test the Huff-Puff process, since the well did not respond to CO{sub 2} injection from the main reservoir. The well will be placed on February 1, 1995. Total CO{sub 2} injection averaged this quarter about 8.8 MMCFD, including 3.6 MMCFD purchased CO{sub 2} from Cardox. The stratigraphy of the sand deposits is also discussed.

  2. Idaho National Laboratory Emergency Readiness Assurance Plan - Fiscal Year 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, Carl J.

    2015-09-01

    Department of Energy Order 151.1C, Comprehensive Emergency Management System requires that each Department of Energy field element documents readiness assurance activities, addressing emergency response planning and preparedness. Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, as prime contractor at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has compiled this Emergency Readiness Assurance Plan to provide this assurance to the Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office. Stated emergency capabilities at the INL are sufficient to implement emergency plans. Summary tables augment descriptive paragraphs to provide easy access to data. Additionally, the plan furnishes budgeting, personnel, and planning forecasts for the next 5 years.

  3. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  4. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  5. Financial Management Committee

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is negative 4 million for the end of FY 2011. The 2nd Quarter Review end-of-year net revenue forecast is 25 million. The current Northwest River Forecasting Center forecast puts...

  6. Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omi, Takahiro; Shinomoto, Shigeru; Kanter, Ido

    2011-02-15

    We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

  7. Cancer and birth defects surveillance system for communities around the Savannah River Site: Phase 2 -- Birth defects. Technical progress report, year 01

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunbar, J.B.

    1995-10-01

    The Savannah River Region Health Information System Birth Defects Registry (SRRHIS-BDR) began on September 30, 1994. As with the SRRHIS Cancer Registry, surveillance of the 12 Georgia counties was subcontracted to Emory University School of Public Health. Collaborative efforts between the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) and Emory University staffs have been characterized by warm relationships and commitment to developing a state of the art registry. As a result of early planning efforts, the authors were able to actually activate the data collection. As of the end of September 1995, partial data from the 1994 birth cohort and up-to-date data for the 1995 birth cohort had been collected on the South Carolina side. The Georgia Staff started later and have not yet caught up to the 1994 level. South Carolina was able to start earlier because they were fortunate to quickly recruit an abstractor. Also, by the end of the first year, an innovative automated data entry system for laptop computers was developed by the computer staff to facilitate and improve data collection.

  8. Computational mechanics research and support for aerodynamics and hydraulics at TFHRC. Quarterly report January through March 2011. Year 1 Quarter 2 progress report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lottes, S. A.; Kulak, R. F.; Bojanowski, C.

    2011-05-19

    This project was established with a new interagency agreement between the Department of Energy and the Department of Transportation to provide collaborative research, development, and benchmarking of advanced three-dimensional computational mechanics analysis methods to the aerodynamics and hydraulics laboratories at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center for a period of five years, beginning in October 2010. The analysis methods employ well-benchmarked and supported commercial computational mechanics software. Computational mechanics encompasses the areas of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Wind Engineering (CWE), Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM), and Computational Multiphysics Mechanics (CMM) applied in Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems. The major areas of focus of the project are wind and water loads on bridges - superstructure, deck, cables, and substructure (including soil), primarily during storms and flood events - and the risks that these loads pose to structural failure. For flood events at bridges, another major focus of the work is assessment of the risk to bridges caused by scour of stream and riverbed material away from the foundations of a bridge. Other areas of current research include modeling of flow through culverts to assess them for fish passage, modeling of the salt spray transport into bridge girders to address suitability of using weathering steel in bridges, vehicle stability under high wind loading, and the use of electromagnetic shock absorbers to improve vehicle stability under high wind conditions. This quarterly report documents technical progress on the project tasks for the period of January through March 2011.

  9. 50 Years of Space

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    50 Years of Space science-innovationassetsimagesicon-science.jpg 50 Years of Space Since 1943, some of the world's smartest and most dedicated technical people have ...

  10. Large $N$ approach to kaon decays and mixing 28 years later: $$\\Delta I = 1/2$$ rule, $$\\hat B_K$$ and $$\\Delta M_K$$

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Buras, Andrzej J.; Gérard, Jean -Marc; Bardeen, William A.

    2014-05-20

    We review and update our results for K → π π decays and K⁰- K¯⁰ mixing obtained by us in the 1980s within an approach based on the dual representation of QCD as a theory of weakly interacting mesons for large N colours. In our analytic approach the dynamics behind the enhancement of ReA0 and suppression of ReA2, the so-called ΔI = 1/2 rule for K → π π decays, has a simple structure: the usual octet enhancement through quark-gluon renormalization group evolution down to the scales O(1 GeV) is continued as a meson evolution down to zero momentum scalesmore » at which the factorization of hadronic matrix elements is at work. The inclusion of lowest-lying vector meson contributions in addition to the pseudoscalar ones and of Wilson coefficients in a momentum scheme improves significantly the matching between quark-gluon and meson evolutions. In particular, the anomalous dimension matrix governing the meson evolution exhibits the structure of the known anomalous dimension matrix in the quark-gluon evolution. The recent results on ReA2 and ReA0 from the RBC-UKQC collaboration give support for our approach. In particular, the signs of the two main contractions found numerically by these authors follow uniquely from our analytic approach. At NLO in 1/N we obtain R = ReA0/ReA2= 16.0±1.5 which amounts to an order of magnitude enhancement over the strict large N limit value √2. QCD penguins contribute at 15% level to this result. We also find B^K = 0.73± 0.02, with the smallness of 1/N corrections to the large N value B^K = 3/4 resulting within our approach from an approximate cancellation between pseudoscalar and vector meson one-loop contributions. We summarize the status of ΔMK in this approach.« less

  11. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  12. Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sector program Execution Plans (1-3 yrs) HR Strategic Plan (1-3 yrs) Current hiring Lists (1-2 yrs) Succession Plans (1-x yrs) UpdateValidate Strategic Staff...

  13. New Tools for Forecasting Old Physics at the LHC

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    For the LHC to uncover many types of new physics, the "old physics" produced by the Standard Model must be understood very well. For decades, the central theoretical tool for this job was the Feynman diagram expansion. However, Feynman diagrams are just too slow, even on fast computers, to allow adequate precision for complicated LHC events with many jets in the final state. Such events are already visible in the initial LHC data. Over the past few years, alternative methods to Feynman diagrams have come to fruition. These new "on-shell" methods are based on the old principles of unitarity and factorization. They can be much more efficient because they exploit the underlying simplicity of scattering amplitudes, and recycle lower-loop information. I will describe how and why these methods work, and present some of the recent state-of-the-art results that have been obtained with them.

  14. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  15. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  16. Builds in U.S. natural gas storage running above five-year average

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Builds in U.S. natural gas storage running above five-year average The amount of natural gas put into underground storage since the beginning of the so-called "injection season" in April has been above the five-year average by a wide margin. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories, which are running more than 50% above year ago levels, are on track to reach almost 4 trillion cubic feet by the end of October which marks the start of

  17. Fuel Cell Technologies Program Multi-Year Research, Development...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan Page B - 1 Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan Page B - 2 Multi-Year Research, Development and ...

  18. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  19. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  20. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  1. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  2. Buildings Energy Data Book: 5.2 Windows

    Buildings Energy Data Book [EERE]

    1 Residential Prime Window Sales, by Frame Type (Million Units) (1) New Construction 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2009 Remodeling/Replacement 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2009 Total Construction 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2009 Note(s): Source(s): AAMA, Industry Statistical Review and Forecast 1992, 1993 for Note 2; AAMA/NWWDA, Industry Statistical Review and Forecast 1996, 1997, Table 6, p. 6 for 1990; AAMA/WDMA, 2000 AAMA/WDMA Industry Statistical Review and Forecast, Feb. 2001, p. 6 for 1995; 2003

  3. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  4. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  5. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  6. 70 years after Trinity

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    70 years after Trinity 70 years after Trinity Though the world has seen many changes since Trinity, one thing has remained constant: Los Alamos remains essential to our nation's ...

  7. An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    geometry of leakage pathways. We have implemented a SCP model described in the literature, which yields an estimate of the depth of the leakage source and the effective...

  8. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    a widely used weather prediction system. These new wind measurements and simulations will also be incorporated into NOAA's Numerical Weather Prediction models to improve ...

  9. Secretary Moniz's First Year

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    We're looking back at some of the biggest moments from Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz's first year in office.

  10. Projects of the year

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, T.

    2007-01-15

    The Peabody Hotel, Orlando, Florida was the site of Power Engineering magazine's 2006 Projects of the Year Awards Banquet, which kicked-off the Power-Gen International conference and exhibition. The Best Coal-fired Project was awarded to Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Inc., owner of Springenville Unit 3. This is a 400 MW pulverized coal plant in Springeville, AZ, sited with two existing coal-fired units. Designed to fire Powder River Basin coal, it has low NOx burners and selective catalytic reduction for NOx control, dry flue gas desulfurization for SO{sub 2} control and a pulse jet baghouse for particulate control. It has a seven-stage feedwater heater and condensers to ensure maximum performance. Progress Energy-Carolinas' Asheville Power Station FGD and SCR Project was awarded the 2006 coal-fired Project Honorable Mention. This plant in Skyland, NC was required to significantly reduce NOx emissions. When completed, the improvements will reduce NOx by 93% compared to 1996 levels and SO{sub 2} by 93% compared to 2001 levels. Awards for best gas-fired, nuclear, and renewable/sustainable energy projects are recorded. The Sasyadko Coal-Mine Methane Cogeneration Plant near Donezk, Ukraine, was given the 2006 Honorable Mention for Best Renewable/Sustainable Energy Project. In November 2004, Ukraine was among 14 nations to launch the Methane to Markets partnership. The award-winning plant is fuelled by methane released during coal extraction. It generates 42 MW of power. 4 photos.

  11. Environmental Biosciences Program Report for Year 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

    2005-10-15

    In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. The intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems. Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene (TCE), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and low-dose ionizing radiation. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making.

  12. 2

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 grid of points (2) (1) (3) 2 2 2 2 2 FEAP FEAP FEAP FEAP FEAP FEAP FEAP FEAP FEAP Prometheus ParMetis METIS METIS METIS METIS METIS METIS METIS METIS Prometheus . . . . PETSc...

  13. 2013 Year in Review

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    3 Year in Review i 2013 YIR May 2014 Year-in-Review: 2013 Energy Infrastructure Events and Expansions Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy DOE / 2013 Year in Review ii 2013 YIR For Further Information This report was prepared by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability under the direction of Patricia Hoffman, Assistant Secretary, and William Bryan, Deputy Assistant Secretary. Specific

  14. Final Year Project Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hubsch, Tristan

    2013-06-20

    In the last years of this eighteen-year grant project, the research efforts have focused mostly on the study of off-shell representations of supersymmetry, both on the worldline and on the world- sheet, i.e., both in supersymmetric quantum mechanics and in supersymmetric field theory in 1+1-dimensional spacetime.

  15. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  16. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  17. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  18. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  19. Effects of Tidal Turbine Noise on Fish Task 2.1.3.2: Effects on Aquatic Organisms: Acoustics/Noise - Fiscal Year 2011 - Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Halvorsen, Michele B.; Carlson, Thomas J.; Copping, Andrea E.

    2011-09-30

    Naturally spawning stocks of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) that utilize Puget Sound are listed as threatened (http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/ESA-Salmon-Listings/Salmon-Populations/ Chinook/CKPUG.cfm). Plans exist for prototype tidal turbines to be deployed into their habitat. Noise is known to affect fish in many ways, such as causing a threshold shift in auditory sensitivity or tissue damage. The characteristics of noise, its spectra and level, are important factors that influence the potential for the noise to injure fish. For example, the frequency range of the tidal turbine noise includes the audiogram (frequency range of hearing) of most fish. This study (Effects on Aquatic Organisms, Subtask 2.1.3.2: Acoustics) was performed during FY 2011 to determine if noise generated by a 6-m-diameter open-hydro turbine might affect juvenile Chinook salmon hearing or cause barotrauma. After they were exposed to simulated tidal turbine noise, the hearing of juvenile Chinook salmon was measured and necropsies performed to check for tissue damage. Experimental groups were (1) noise exposed, (2) control (the same handling as treatment fish but without exposure to tidal turbine noise), and (3) baseline (never handled). Preliminary results indicate that low levels of tissue damage may have occurred but that there were no effects of noise exposure on the auditory systems of the test fish.

  20. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  1. Allocation Year Rollover process

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Allocatio Year Rollover process Allocation Year Rollover process December 23, 2013 by Francesca Verdier Allocation Year 2013 (AY13) ends at 23:59:59 on Monday, January 13, 2014. AY14 runs from Tuesday, January 14, 2014 through Monday, January 12, 2015. The major features of the rollover are: charging acroess the AY boundary: All batch jobs will continue running during the rollover. Time accrued before midnight will be charged to AY13 repos; time accrued after midnight will be charged to AY14

  2. Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2009 Year...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2009 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2009 Year-End ...

  3. Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2008 Year...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    8 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2008 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2008 Year-End ...

  4. Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2011 Year...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2011 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2011 Year-End ...

  5. Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2010 Year...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2010 Year-End Summary Report Applied Science and Technology Task Order Fiscal Year 2010 Year-End ...

  6. Fiscal Year 2010 Budget-in-Brief

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fiscal Year 2010 Budget-in-Brief www.eere.energy.gov Table of Contents Table of Contents...................................................................................................................................... 2 Preface ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Highlights:

  7. Ten Year Site Plans

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A Ten Year Site Plan (TYSP) is the essential planning document linking a site's real property requirements to its mission in support of the Department of Energy’s overall strategic plan. It is a...

  8. Welcome Year in Review

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Training Meeting Orlando, Florida-May 23-25, 2006 Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy & the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Welcome & Year In Review Peter Dessaules...

  9. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  10. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  11. FMC May 2013 Appendix 1 Monthly Financial Reports Public Available

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    expected in the 2nd quarter forecast. o The 2nd Quarter Review end-of-year (EOY) net revenue forecast is 21 million compared to the start-of-year (SOY) estimate of 51 million...

  12. Coal operators prepare for a prosperous new year

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiscor, S.

    2008-01-15

    Results are given of the Coal Age 2008 annual Forecast Survey of 17 coal mining executives which reinforces that 2008 could be a very good year. Coal operators are planning to invest in new equipment, development and new coal mine start-ups, based on a number of demand- and supply-side fundamentals. 71% of those surveyed thought coal production in 2008 would increase from 2007 levels and US exports are expected to climb due to the weak dollar. If the tax credit on synfuels expires on 31 December 2007 production of coal synfuel will likely cease. Asked about expensive planned purchases, companies answers ranged from $80,000 for an underground scoop to $500 m for a new mine installation. However, most producers admit they will not be able to operate at full capacity. 7 figs.

  13. EMERGENCY READINESS ASSURANCE PLAN (ERAP) FOR FISCAL YEAR (FY) 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bush, Shane

    2014-09-01

    This Emergency Readiness Assurance Plan (ERAP) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 in accordance with DOE O 151.1C, “Comprehensive Emergency Management System.” The ERAP documents the readiness of the INL Emergency Management Program using emergency response planning and preparedness activities as the basis. It describes emergency response planning and preparedness activities, and where applicable, summarizes and/or provides supporting information in tabular form for easy access to data. The ERAP also provides budget, personnel, and planning forecasts for FY-15. Specifically, the ERAP assures the Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office that stated emergency capabilities at INL are sufficient to implement PLN-114, “INL Emergency Plan/RCRA Contingency Plan.

  14. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.; Zdanski, Laura C.; Gill, Gary A.; Ward, Jeffrey A.

    2011-09-01

    Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases. During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. Risk has two components: (1) The likelihood, or probability, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential consequence if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening analysis focused primarily on the second component of risk, consequence, with focused probability analysis for interactions where data was sufficient for probability modeling. Consequence analysis provides an assessment of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations. Probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors and requires significant data inputs to drive risk models. During FY 2011, two stressor-receptor interactions were examined for the probability of occurrence. The two interactions (spill probability due to an encounter between a surface vessel and an MHK device; and toxicity from anti-biofouling paints on MHK devices) were seen to present relatively low risks to marine and freshwater receptors of greatest concern in siting and permitting MHK devices. A third probability analysis was scoped and initial steps taken to understand the risk of encounter between marine animals and rotating turbine blades. This analysis will be completed in FY 2012.

  15. 10 highlights celebrating 10 years of Argonne Leadership Computing...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    10 highlights celebrating 10 years of Argonne Leadership Computing Facility February 2, ... of the universe over billions of years - allowing scientists to "watch" as galaxies form. ...

  16. FTCP Annual Report - Fiscal Year 2002 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2 FTCP Annual Report - Fiscal Year 2002 This report covers the period from June 1, 2001, ... More Documents & Publications FTCP Annual Plan - Fiscal Year 2003 FTCP Annual Plan - ...

  17. Year-in-Review: 2012 Energy Infrastructure Events and Expansions...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    2 Energy Infrastructure Events and Expansions (July 2013) Year-in-Review: 2012 Energy Infrastructure Events and Expansions (July 2013) The Year-in-Review (YIR): 2012 Energy...

  18. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  19. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  20. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  1. Effects of Electromagnetic Fields on Fish and Invertebrates: Task 2.1.3: Effects on Aquatic Organisms - Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodruff, Dana L.; Schultz, Irvin R.; Marshall, Kathryn E.; Ward, Jeffrey A.; Cullinan, Valerie I.

    2012-05-01

    This fiscal year (FY) 2011 progress report (Task 2.1.3 Effects on Aquatic Organisms, Subtask 2.3.1.1 Electromagnetic Fields) describes studies conducted by PNNL as part of the DOE Wind and Water Power Program to examine the potential effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF) from marine and hydrokinetic devices on aquatic organisms, including freshwater and marine fish and marine invertebrates. In this report, we provide a description of the methods and results of experiments conducted in FY 2010-FY 2011 to evaluate potential responses of selected aquatic organisms. Preliminary EMF laboratory experiments during FY 2010 and 2011 entailed exposures with representative fish and invertebrate species including juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus), California halibut (Paralicthys californicus), rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister). These species were selected for their ecological, commercial, and/or recreational importance, as well as their potential to encounter an MHK device or transmission cable during part or all of their life cycle. Based on previous studies, acute effects such as mortality were not expected to occur from EMF exposures. Therefore, our measurement endpoints focused on behavioral responses (e.g., detection of EMF, interference with feeding behavior, avoidance or attraction to EMF), developmental changes (i.e., growth and survival from egg or larval stage to juvenile), and exposure markers indicative of physiological responses to stress. EMF intensities during the various tests ranged from 0.1 to 3 millitesla, representing a range of upper bounding conditions reported in the literature. Experiments to date have shown there is little evidence to indicate distinct or extreme behavioral responses in the presence of elevated EMF for the species tested. Several developmental and physiological responses were observed in the fish exposures, although most were not statistically significant. Additional species are currently planned for laboratory testing in the next fiscal year (e.g. an elasmobranch, American lobster) to provide a broader assessment of species important to stakeholders. The collective responses of all species will be assessed in terms of life stage, exposure scenarios, and biological relevance, to address current uncertainties related to effects of EMF on aquatic organisms.

  2. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  3. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  4. Month Day Year

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    including the educational backgrounds of the personnel and the equipment used and different types of testing performed; 2) information about how UL's electric motor testing...

  5. Through the years

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    years Early 1960s Researchers at PNL (now called PNNL) developed the standards and devices for setting and measuring radiation doses received by nuclear industry work- ers. Tens of thousands of people, including children, have been mea- sured by whole-body counters since the 1960s to relate their physical content of radioactive materials to sources such as food and water. 1960s PNL formulated the first use of a digital computer for complete process control of a mass spectrometer. Mid-1960s PNL

  6. 2

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Figure 1. Uranium concentrate production in the United States, 1996 - 1st quarter 2016 pounds U 3 O 8 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,500,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 P2016 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter P = Preliminary data. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: Form EIA-851A and Form EIA-851Q,

  7. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  8. four-year goal

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    %2A en Material Disposition http:nnsa.energy.govaboutusourprogramsdnnm3dispose

    Page...

  9. ,"Projected Year Base","Year","Summer",,,"Eastern Power Grid...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2008 " ,"(Megawatts and Percent)" ,"Projected Year Base","Year","Summer",,,"Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power Grid",,,"Western Power Grid" ,,,"Contiguous...

  10. ,"Projected Year Base","Year","Summer",,,"Eastern Power Grid...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2009 " ,"(Megawatts and Percent)" ,"Projected Year Base","Year","Summer",,,"Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power Grid",,,"Western Power Grid" ,,,"Contiguous...

  11. Classification CommuniQué- Year: 2013

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Classification newsletters for the year 2013, consisting of the following issues: CommuniQué 2013-1 - Spring 2013 CommuniQué 2013-2 - Fall 2013

  12. Capping blowouts from Iran's 8-year war

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sayers, B. )

    1991-07-01

    Control well blown up by the Iraqi military were a 2 1/2 year legacy left the National Iranian Oil Co. at the end of this long conflict. This final installment of a 2-part series describes capping of the largest wind oil well.

  13. Concurrent Transfers Historical Yearly Peak

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the graph for current year shows the data for the year-to-date peak. Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily...

  14. Planning for Years to Come

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Planning for Years to Come Planning for Years to Come LANL's Governing Policy on the Environment August 1, 2013 Water sampling tour for the Association of Experiential Education ...

  15. FMC Presentation May

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is 14 million higher than the 2 nd Quarter Review forecast. * The end-of-year net revenue forecast for the 2nd Quarter Review is 42 million. This is 64 million below the SOY...

  16. Joint Analysis of Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing and Galaxy Clustering: Methodology and Forecasts for DES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, Y.

    2015-07-19

    The joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering is a promising method for inferring the growth function of large scale structure. Our analysis will be carried out on data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), with its measurements of both the distribution of galaxies and the tangential shears of background galaxies induced by these foreground lenses. We develop a practical approach to modeling the assumptions and systematic effects affecting small scale lensing, which provides halo masses, and large scale galaxy clustering. Introducing parameters that characterize the halo occupation distribution (HOD), photometric redshift uncertainties, and shear measurement errors, we study how external priors on different subsets of these parameters affect our growth constraints. Degeneracies within the HOD model, as well as between the HOD and the growth function, are identified as the dominant source of complication, with other systematic effects sub-dominant. The impact of HOD parameters and their degeneracies necessitate the detailed joint modeling of the galaxy sample that we employ. Finally, we conclude that DES data will provide powerful constraints on the evolution of structure growth in the universe, conservatively/optimistically constraining the growth function to 7.9%/4.8% with its first-year data that covered over 1000 square degrees, and to 3.9%/2.3% with its full five-year data that will survey 5000 square degrees, including both statistical and systematic uncertainties.

  17. Year 2000 TWRS Maintenance procedure review report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ADAMS, M.R.

    1999-02-24

    A concern exists that some equipment in use might contain microprocessors that are dependent upon a time date function. The majority of the software programming for microprocessors has only utilized a 2 digit identifier for the year. With the approach of the year 2000, (Y2K), there is concern that the date function will not be correctly recognized and some functions will not operate properly. TWRS maintenance procedures have been reviewed to identify equipment components that may not be Y2K compliant. Engineering judgment was utilized to eliminate procedures and equipment that is obviously not impacted by Y2K.

  18. Aggregate Transfers Historical Yearly Peak

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transfers Historical Yearly Peak Aggregate Transfers Historical Yearly Peak These plots show the yearly peak days from 2000 to the present. BE CAREFUL because the graphs are autoscaling - check the scales on each axis before you compare graphs. Note that the graph for current year shows the data for the year-to-date peak. Daily Aggregate Bandwidth Daily Aggregate Bandwidth Daily Aggregate Bandwidth Daily Aggregate Bandwidth Daily Aggregate Bandwidth Daily Aggregate Bandwidth Daily Aggregate

  19. Concurrent Transfers Historical Yearly Peak

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transfers Historical Yearly Peak Concurrent Transfers Historical Yearly Peak These plots show the yearly peak days from 2000 to present. BE CAREFUL because the graphs are autoscaling - check the scales on each axis before you compare graphs. Note that the graph for current year shows the data for the year-to-date peak. Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage Concurrency Daily Storage

  20. Waste Receiving and Processing Facility Module 2A: Advanced Conceptual Design Report. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This ACDR was performed following completed of the Conceptual Design Report in July 1992; the work encompassed August 1992 to January 1994. Mission of the WRAP Module 2A facility is to receive, process, package, certify, and ship for permanent burial at the Hanford site disposal facilities the Category 1 and 3 contact handled low-level radioactive mixed wastes that are currently in retrievable storage at Hanford and are forecast to be generated over the next 30 years by Hanford, and waste to be shipped to Hanford from about DOE sites. This volume provides an introduction to the ACDR process and the scope of the task along with a project summary of the facility, treatment technologies, cost, and schedule. Major areas of departure from the CDR are highlighted. Descriptions of the facility layout and operations are included.