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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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1

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL AND OIL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR · FISH ON OF FISH MEAL AND OIL , ESPECIALLY DUR ING 1953 TO 1959, THE PRI NC IPAL MARKET S FOR THE PRODUCTS- DICATE WHAT IS INCLUDED BESIDES FISHMEAL AND FISH BODY OIL. #12;WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL

3

ENERGY CONTENT OF WORLD TRADE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper constructs a comprehensive dataset of oil and total energy embedded in world trade of manufacturing goods for 73 countries from 1978 to 2000. Applying the data to debates on the dependency on foreign energy sources makes clear that achieving complete energy independence in the foreseeable future is unlikely to be feasible and may not be desirable. Applying it to the discussion of environmental Kuznets curves (EKCs) highlights an important distinction between production and consumption of energy. Richer countries use relatively less energy in their industrial production yet still consume relatively large amounts of energy indirectly. A further investigation largely excludes structural shifts of production in and out of the manufacturing sector as an explanation for the downward-sloping portion of the EKC. Country-level analyses add caveats but show tentative support for the cross-country conclusions.

Gernot Wagner

4

November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

Shyy, Wei

5

Africa gaining importance in world LPG trade  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Major LPG projects planned or under way in Africa will increase the importance of that region`s presence in world LPG trade. Supplies will nearly double between 1995 and 2005, at which time they will remain steady for at least 10 years. At the same time that exports are leveling, however, increasing domestic demand for PG is likely to reduce export-market participation by Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, and Libya. The growth of Africa`s participation in world LPG supply is reflected in comparisons for the next 15--20 years. Total world supply of LPG in 1995 was about 165 million metric tons (tonnes), of which Africans share was 7.8 million tonnes. By 2000, world supply will grow to slightly more than 200 million tonnes, with Africa`s share expected to increase to 13.2 million tonnes (6.6%). And by 2005, world LPG supply will reach nearly 230 million tonnes; Africa`s overall supply volumes by that year will be nearly 16.2 million tonnes (7%). World LPG supply for export in 1995 was on order of 44 million tonnes with Africa supply about 4 million tonnes (9%). By 2005, world export volumes of LPG will reach nearly 70 million tonnes; Africa`s share will have grown by nearly 10 million tonnes (14.3%).

Haun, R.R. [Purvin and Gertz Inc., Dallas, TX (United States); Otto, K.W.; Whitley, S.C. [Purvin and Gertz Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

1997-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

6

World Trade Organization | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating SolarElectric Coop,SaveWhiskey Flats Geothermal AreaarticleWood FuelHealthWorldTrade

7

China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards Patrick A. Messerlin China finds of antidumping measures, but (so far) one of the smallest users of such measures. China's World Trade China's recent antidumping enforcement; how China could minimize its exposure to foreign antidumping

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

8

The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A. 2000. ?Globalization of the Economy. ? National Bureau ofof Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-of Trade Globalization: A Political Economy and World-

Kwon, Roy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The oil shocks of the 1970s coincided with a number of economic disturbances. However, it has been difficult to develop models where oil shocks have a quantitatively important impact on the economy. In this paper, I show that the disturbances in transportation caused by the oil shocks can significantly affect the economy. I argue that changes in energy prices were responsible for a worldwide slowdown in the growth of trade and may help explain the apparent change in the price-trade elasticity. While tariffs have fallen steadily since 1970, trade growth slowed in the mid-1970s and has grown rapidly since the mid-1980s. In a standard trade model, this pattern implies that the price-import elasticity increased sharply in the mid-1980s. In this paper, I argue that the oil crises of the 1970s led to higher transportation costs. In 1986 energy prices fell to their pre-crisis level, reducing transportation costs and by extension trade barriers. I present a trade model with an energy using transportation sector. In model simulations, I show that total trade costs (transportation cost plus tariffs) are constant from 1974 to 1982. Once transportation costs are accounted for, the price-import elasticity no longer needs to radically change. I also show that trade expansion since 1960 is 50 percent higher in a standard trade model that includes a transportation sector compared to one that does not.

Benjamin Bridgman

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

A real options case study : The valuation of flexibility in the World Trade Center redevelopment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis will apply the past research and methodologies of Real Options to Tower 2 and Tower 3 of the World Trade Center redevelopment project in New York, NY. The qualitative component of the thesis investigates the ...

Cailao, Alberto P

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

International dispute settlement system design : analysis of the World Trade Organization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The dispute settlement process established by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1994, (the "DSU"), has drawn widespread attention. While the DSU is the most used international dispute settlement process, it is geared ...

Martinez, Janet Kathryn Griffin, 1951-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Randomizing bipartite networks: the case of the World Trade Web  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Within the last fifteen years, network theory has been successfully applied both to natural sciences and to socioeconomic disciplines. In particular, bipartite networks have been recognized to provide a particularly insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks in ecology to trade networks in economy, whence the need of a pattern detection-oriented analysis in order to identify statistically-significant structural properties. Such an analysis rests upon the definition of suitable null models, i.e. upon the choice of the portion of network structure to be preserved while randomizing everything else. However, quite surprisingly, little work has been done so far to define null models for real bipartite networks. The aim of the present work is to fill this gap, extending a recently-proposed method to randomize monopartite networks to bipartite networks. While the proposed formalism is perfectly general, we apply our method to the binary, undirected, bipartite representation of the W...

Saracco, Fabio; Gabrielli, Andrea; Squartini, Tiziano

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

effect of energy consumption on trade globalization; but notvariables include: trade globalization, energy consumption,Democracy Constant Energy Consumption ? Trade Globalization

Kwon, Roy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

The Use of DOE Technologies at The World Trade Center Incident: Lessons Learned  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In response to the attack of the World Trade Center (WTC) on September 11, 2001, the International Union of Operating Engineers (IUOE) National Hazmat Program (OENHP) assembled and deployed a HAZMAT Emergency Management Team (Team) to the disaster site (Site). The response team consisted of a Certified Industrial Hygienist and a rotating team of industrial hygienists, safety professionals, and certified HAZMAT instructors. Through research funded by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) and managed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the IUOE conducted human factors assessments on baseline and innovative technologies during real-world conditions and served as an advocate at the WTC disaster site to identify opportunities for the use and evaluation of DOE technologies. From this work, it is clear that opportunities exist for more DOE technologies to be made readily available for use in future emergencies.

McCabe, B.; Kovach, J.; Carpenter, C.; Blair, D.

2003-02-25T23:59:59.000Z

15

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

2009-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

16

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Paris IEA (2006). World Energy Outlook, International EnergyAgency. IEA (2002). World Energy Outlook, Internationalprimarily in the IEAs World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2002 (2000

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Determination of a Diagnostic Signature for World Trade Center Dust using Scanning Electron  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Brownfield Any use of trade, product or firm names in this report is for descriptive purposes only and does

Torgersen, Christian

19

Forecasting Mexican imports of U.S. corn, sorghum and soybeans under free trade and debt reduction scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

INFORMATION Mexican External Debt and Structural Adjustment U. S. - Mexico Agricultural Trade Commodity Specific Factors LITERATURE REVIEW Economic Integration and the Welfare Impacts of a FTA Modeling Methods METHOD OF ANALYSIS AND DATA Description... BACKGROUND INFORMATION To analyze corn, sorghum and soybean trade it is useful to outline several background factors. First, Mexican external debt and its impact on U. S. -Mexican agricultural trade will be discussed. Second, U. S. -Mexican agricultural...

Lyford, Conrad Power

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

War Intensity Energy Consumption World Average Democracyworld GDPpc taken from Maddison (2007) and energy consumptionto world GDPpc this study will employ energy consumption

Kwon, Roy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

The World Trade Organization and financial stability: the balance between liberalisation and regulation in the GATs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and the Annex on Financial Services to determine its impact on domestic financial regulation and whether the GATS framework can achieve its objectives of liberalising international trade in financial services while allowing states to maintain adequate domestic...

Alexander, Kern

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

Breivik, yvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Tritium in the World Trade Center September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack: It's Possible Sources and Fate  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Traces of tritiated water (HTO) were determined at World Trade Center (WTC) ground zero after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. A method of ultralow-background liquid scintillation counting was used after distilling HTO from the samples. A water sample from the WTC sewer, collected on 9/13/01, contained 0.174{plus_minus}0.074 (2{sigma}) nCi/L of HTO. A split water sample, collected on 9/21/01 from the basement of WTC Building 6, contained 3.53{plus_minus}0.17 and 2.83{plus_minus}0.15 nCi/L, respectively. Several water and vegetation samples were analyzed from areas outside the ground zero, located in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and Kensico Reservoir. No HTO above the background was found in those samples. All these results are well below the levels of concern to human exposure. Several tritium radioluminescent (RL) devices were investigated as possible sources of the traces of tritium at ground zero. Tritium is used in self-luminescent emergency EXIT signs. No such signs were present inside the WTC buildings. However, it was determined that Boeing 767-222 aircraft operated by the United Airlines that hit WTC Tower 2 as well as Boeing 767-223ER operated by the American Airlines, that hit WTC Tower 1, had a combined 34.3 Ci of tritium at the time of impact. Other possible sources of tritium include dials and lights of fire and emergency equipment, sights and scopes in weaponry, as well as time devices equipped with tritium dials. It was determined that emergency equipment was not a likely source. However, WTC hosted several law-enforcement agencies such as ATF, CIA, US Secret Service and US Customs. The ATF office had two weapon vaults in WTC Building 6. Also 63 Police Officers, possibly carrying handguns with tritium sights, died in the attack. The weaponry containing tritium was therefore a likely and significant source of tritium. It is possible that some of the 2830 victims carried tritium watches, however this source appears to be less significant that the other two. The fate of tritium in the attack depended on its chemistry. Any tritium present in the vicinity of jet-fuel explosion or fire would convert to HTO. The molecular tritium is also known to quickly exchange with water adsorbed on surfaces at ambient temperatures. Therefore, the end product of reacted tritium was HTO. A part of it would disperse into the atmosphere and a part would remain on site. The dynamic aspect of HTO removal was investigated taking into a consideration water flow at ground zero. Most of ground zero is encircled by the Slurry Wall, 70 ft deep underground, called a Bathtub. Approximately three million gallons of water were hosed on site in the fire-fighting efforts, and 1 million gallons fell as rainwater, between 9/11 and 9/21 (the day of the reported measurement). The combined water percolated through the debris down to the bottom of the Bathtub dissolving and removing HTO with it. That water would meet and combine with the estimated 26 million gallons of water that leaked from the Hudson River as well as broken mains, during the same period of 10 days after the attack. The combined water was collecting in the PATH train tunnel and continuously being pumped out to prevent flooding. A %Box model of water flow was developed to describe the above scenario. Considering the uncertainty in the amount of tritium present from sources other than the aircraft, as well as the dynamic character of tritium removal from the site, it is feasible to provide only a qualitative picture of the fate and behavior of tritium at WTC with the limited experimental data available. If the time history of tritium concentration at WTC had been measured, this study could have been a tracer study of water flow at WTC possibly useful to civil engineering.

Parekh, P; Semkow, T; Husain, L; Haines, D; Woznial, G; Williams, P; Hafner, R; Rabun, R

2002-05-03T23:59:59.000Z

24

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

The Worker Component At The World Trade Center Cleanup: Addressing Cultural And Language Differences In Emergency Operations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On September 11, 2001, the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC) caused astronomical loss of life and property. Systems in place to manage disaster response were strained to the limit because key first responders were among the casualties when the twin towers collapsed. In addition, the evolution of events required immediate response in a rapidly changing and extremely hazardous situation. Rescue, recovery, and clean up became an overpowering and sustained effort that would utilize the resources of federal, state and local governments and agencies. One issue during the response to the WTC disaster site that did not receive much attention was that of the limited and non-English speaking worker. The Operating Engineers National HAZMAT Program (OENHP), with its history of a Hispanic Outreach Program, was acutely aware of this issue with the Hispanic worker. The Hispanic population comprises approximately 27% of the population of New York City (1). The extremely unfortunate and tragic events of that day provided an opportunity to not only provide assistance for the Hispanic workers, but also to apply lessons learned and conduct studies on worker training with language barriers in a real life environment. However, due to the circumstances surrounding this tragedy, the study of these issues was conducted primarily by observation. Through partnerships with other organizations such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the New York Health Department, the New York Department of Design and Construction (DDC), the New York Committee for Occupational Safety and Health (NYCOSH), and private companies such as 3M and MSA, OENHP was able to provide translated information on hazards, protective measures, fit testing of respirators, and site specific safety and health training. The OENHP translated materials on hazards and how to protect workers into Spanish to assist in getting the information to the limited and non- English speaking workers.

McCabe, B.; Carpenter, C.; Blair. D.

2003-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

26

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

27

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

28

Trade Liberalization And Poverty Dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Trade Liberalization And Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 Barbara COELLO World Bank Madior-28Mar2014 #12;1 Trade liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 Barbara Coello, the World liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 Abstract This paper shows the evolution of poverty

Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

29

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Solar Forecasting  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

On December 7, 2012,DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

31

Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in Agricultural, Food and Bioenergy Trade (AGFOODTRADE)" (Grant Agreement No. 212036) research project, funded production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading

Boyer, Edmond

32

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

33

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Trade Policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In an otherwise insightful and thoughtful article, Sebastian Pfotenhauer (Trade Policy Is Science Policy, Issues, Fall 2013) might better have entitled his contribution Trade Policy Needs to Be Reconciled with Science ...

Ashford, Nicholas A.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

East Europe's energy trade takes new shape  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Often in the past, Western analysts of global energy demand have treated Eastern Europe as just part of a black box labeled Communist. Only the net flow of energy to the non-Communist world was of any consequence. The region, although primarily a major net importer of energy from the Soviet Union, was a very small net exporter of energy to non-Communist countries based Polish coal exports. Romanian refined petroleum product exports, and some minor exports of refined products by other East European countries. The political and economic configurations of Eastern Europe has changed dramatically over the past 2 years, however, and the way in which East European energy relationships are considered will have to change accordingly. With the sweeping transformation of these economies (for the most part, radically in the direction of a market orientation) and the breakup of their unique system of mutual trade, the patterns of energy production, consumption, and trade which have prevailed in the region during the post-war period will also change significantly. Forecasting the net-impact on energy demand in this region of offsetting trends due to economic reform (i.e., renewed economic dynamism vs. decreased energy intensity of aggregate economic output) is a very difficult task. Moreover, there are additional complications introduced by changes in the political system, such as the increased importance of environmental quality in the choice of fuel and production technology due to clearly enunciated concern of the popular political movements with these issues.

Movit, C. (Plan Econ, Inc., Washington, DC (US))

1991-06-03T23:59:59.000Z

36

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia and Sunshine Coast. FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Links

Greenslade, Diana

37

Creating win-wins from trade-offs? Ecosystem services for human well-being: A meta-analysis of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in the real world  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

type of ecosystem trade-off or synergy (U Stakeholder type (where a stakeholder is an individual or group using a particular ecosystem service) Do the stakeholders hav the ecosystem service o companies have a priva timber, whereas the glo public... of the stakeholders have a private interest in one or more of the ES involved. For example, the sale of trees for timber (private interest) as opposed to their maintenance for climate regulation (public interest). In order to address these hypotheses we asked a number...

Howe, Caroline; Suich, Helen; Vira, Bhaskar; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

38

Forecasted Opportunities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsing ZirconiaPolicyFeasibilityFieldMinds" |beamtheFor yourForForecasted

39

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,forecasting of solar- radiation data, Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia From October 2013, new and improved district forecasts will be introduced in Queensland Protection times FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 PTO> Wind

Greenslade, Diana

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of...

42

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

43

Ensemble Forecasting of Volcanic Sulfur Emissions in Hawai'i Andre Pattantyus and Steven Businger  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Hawai'i. The probabilistic forecast products show uncertainty in pollutant concentrations of pollution known as "vog" after volcanic smog. Prevailing northeast trade winds in Hawaii advectEnsemble Forecasting of Volcanic Sulfur Emissions in Hawai'i Andre Pattantyus and Steven Businger

Businger, Steven

44

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

46

Multilateral, regional and bilateral energy trade governance  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The current international energy trade governance system is fragmented and multi-layered. Streamlining it for greater legal cohesiveness and international political and economic cooperation would promote global energy security. The current article explores three levels of energy trade governance: multilateral, regional and bilateral. Most energy-rich countries are part of the multilateral trading system, which is institutionalized by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The article analyzes the multilateral energy trade governance system by focusing on the WTO and energy transportation issues. Regionally, the article focuses on five major regional agreements and their energy-related aspects and examines the various causes that explain the proliferation of regional trade agreements, their compatibility with WTO law, and then provides several examples of regional energy trade governance throughout the world. When it comes to bilateral energy trade governance, this article only addresses the European Unions (EU) bilateral energy trade relations. The article explores ways in which gaps could be filled and overlaps eliminated whilst remaining true to the high-level normative framework, concentrating on those measures that would enhance EU energy security.

Leal-Arcas, Rafael; Grasso, Costantino; Rios, Juan Alemany (Queen Mary Univ. of London (United Kingdom))

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

48

Forest products and services, international trade Trade in forest products and services  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forest products and services, international trade Trade in forest products and services The forest products sector is estimated to contribute about one percent of world gross domestic product and to account, pulp and paper exceeds US$200 billion. The value of non-wood forest products and the environmental

49

The world price of coal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A significant increase in the seaborne trade for coal over the past twenty years has unified formerly separate coal markets into a world market in which prices move in tandem. Due to its large domestic market, the United ...

Ellerman, A. Denny

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

53

Essays in international trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis is a collection of essays on the effect of trade costs on international trade. Chapter 1 derives and empirically examines how factor proportions determine the structure of commodity trade when international ...

Romalis, John

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

55

Rainfall-River Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

US Army Corps of Engineers

56

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

57

The EUs Emissions Trading Scheme: A Prototype Global System?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first multinational cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. As an agreement between sovereign nations with diverse historical, institutional, and ...

Ellerman, A. Denny

58

The EUs Emissions Trading Scheme: A Proto-Type Global System?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first multinational cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. As an agreement between sovereign nations with diverse historical, institutional, and ...

Ellerman, A. Denny

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

60

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

10621088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgssner, G. , and U. K.2005): Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Emissions Trading and Social Justice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

David M. Driesen, Does Emissions Trading Encourage Jason Coburn, Emissions Trading and Environmental Szambelan, U.S. Emissions Trading Markets for SO 2

Farber, Daniel A

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Impacts of globlisation and trade liberalisation on small households in Vietnam livestock sector.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Vietnam has negotiated a series of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and has made significant steps in integrating into the world economy. This integration is (more)

Pham, Thi Ngoc Linh

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

THE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL TRADE IN LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

gas (LNG) to the year 2020. Because of substantial uncertainties in the current markets for LNG view of world LNG trade that was common several years ago and a low case that reflects concern of LNG trade from proven natural gas reserves in potential exporting countries. While Pacific Basin

66

International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The introduction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an option for international trade has created a market for natural gas where global prices may eventually be differentiated by the transportation costs between world ...

Du, Y.

67

Systemic trade-risk of critical resources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade-risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. On a global and a regional level we show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of non-fuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the world-trade network of or spanned by these resources. On the global level we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource, as measured by its trade volume compared to extractable reserves, is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. On the regional level we find that to some extent the region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade-risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade-risk indica...

Klimek, Peter; Thurner, Stefan

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

C-1 Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C APPENDIX C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS BACKGROUND Since the Council's 1991 Power Plan, fuel prices have been following the low forecast. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oil prices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last

69

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

70

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

71

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

72

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

73

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS FOR TRANSIT MARK FILIPI, AICP PTP 23rd Annual Transportation transportation projects § Develop and maintain Regional Travel Demand Model § Develop forecast socio in cooperative review during all phases of travel demand forecasting 4 #12;Cooperative Review Should Include

Minnesota, University of

74

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the consensus forecast produced in 2006, primarily from the decreased demand as a result of the current nationalConsensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks

Mohaghegh, Shahab

75

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

76

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecasting of New Products Using Attribute Analysis Marina Kang A thesis submitted Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock upon currently employed new-SKU demand forecasting methods which involve the processing of large

Sun, Yu

77

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

78

Briefing Note 2010 -2 Tax Fraud from Emissions Trading in the European Union  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Briefing Note 2010 - 2 7 May 2010 Tax Fraud from Emissions Trading in the European Union Neil Tansey and Ivan Watson Issue The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) began in 2005 as the largest multi-country and multi-sector greenhouse gas emissions trading system in the world by volume

Pedersen, Tom

79

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

80

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantifying PV power output variability, Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Managing Risk in a Dynamic World Economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Managing Risk in a Dynamic World Economy Harold M. Harris, Jr., Geoffery A. Benson and Parr Rosson* U.S. agriculture has undergone dramatic change in the 1990s. New trade poli- cies under NAFTA and GATT opened markets previously closed to some U... major force in world trade, but some other Asian powerhouses fal- tered. Biotechnology offered early promise of new products and production meth- ods. Industry structure changed, with major growth in vertical integration, coordi- nation...

Harris, Harold M.; Benson, Geoffrey A.; Rosson, C. Parr

1999-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

82

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

Kemner, Ken

84

Forecasting oilfield economic performance  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in international trade can mask energy security issues andinternational trade in fossil energy (coal, oil, gas) toin trade, emissions from traded fuels, energy security,

Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

87

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 20 4010 Miles #12;Bay-S Pinellas Bay-UPR Bay Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12

88

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

91

Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

& Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

92

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

Mohaghegh, Shahab

93

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

94

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2.............................................................................................. 10 #12;Introduction and Background This document describes staff's updated 2007 peak demand forecasts

95

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product estimates. Margaret Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand

96

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

97

2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Program Plan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

package. · Two 18 UTC update forecasts on demand basis, with the same domain and configuration, running2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Experiment Program Plan April 20, 2009 #12;2 Table of Content 1. Overview .......................................................................................................4 3. Forecast System Configuration

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

98

Water Quality Trading Program (Ohio)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Water quality trading is a tool for achieving water quality improvements. Under the right circumstances, trading has the potential to yield both environmental and economic benefits, while...

99

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 6 Demand................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast

100

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity

Ross, Shane

103

The impact of trade costs on rare earth exports : a stochastic frontier estimation approach.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The study develops a novel stochastic frontier modeling approach to the gravity equation for rare earth element (REE) trade between China and its trading partners between 2001 and 2009. The novelty lies in differentiating betweenbehind the border' trade costs by China and theimplicit beyond the border costs' of China's trading partners. Results indicate that the significance level of the independent variables change dramatically over the time period. While geographical distance matters for trade flows in both periods, the effect of income on trade flows is significantly attenuated, possibly capturing the negative effects of financial crises in the developed world. Second, the total export losses due tobehind the border' trade costs almost tripled over the time period. Finally, looking atimplicit beyond the border' trade costs, results show China gaining in some markets, although it is likely that some countries are substituting away from Chinese REE exports.

Sanyal, Prabuddha; Brady, Patrick Vane; Vugrin, Eric D.

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Globalization and standards : the liberalization of trade and the potential for a regulatory race to the top  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Globalization is changing the way in which the world is organized. The world trade regime is increasingly the dominant mode of organizing international relations. Within this context of globalization and liberalization of ...

Cameron, Diane (Melissa Jessica Diane)

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Trade Studies By Jacob Kloos  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Alternative Architectures Trade Tree Electric Power System Store Energy Control & Distribute PowerTrade Studies By Jacob Kloos #12;What is a Trade Study? · A tool used to be commensurate with cost, schedule, performance, and risk impacts · Trade studies

Rhoads, James

106

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

107

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

108

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga, , Yuhong Yanga,1 a313 Ford Hall, 224 Church St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 Abstract Numerous forecast combination schemes with distinct on combining forecasts with minimizing the occurrence of forecast outliers in mind. An unnoticed phenomenon

Yuhong, Yang

109

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

110

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

111

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-term Electricity Demand Forecasting System 1) Obtain Daily Regional Temperatures 6) Estimate Daily WeatherLoad Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation

112

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

113

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

114

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid

115

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

116

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

117

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts April 14, 2009 Massoud,000 MW #12;6 Demand Forecasts Price Effect (prior to conservation) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30 Jourabchi #12;2 Changes since the Last Draft ForecastChanges since the Last Draft Forecast Improved

118

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

119

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

120

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Values in TWh forthe Year2022 Formula Mid Demand Forecast Renewable Net High Demand Forecast Renewable Net Low Demand Forecast Renewable Net #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION5 Demand Forecast · Retail Sales Forecast from California Energy Demand 2012 2022(CED 2011), Adopted Forecast* ­ Form 1.1c · Demand Forecast

123

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Carbon Trading Protocols for Geologic Sequestration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EU ETS: European Union Emissions Trading System GHG: Greenstarts operating an emissions trading scheme (ETS) similarGovernments operating emissions trading systems face the

Hoversten, Shanna

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

International Electricity Trade - Open Access | Department of...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

International Electricity Trade - Open Access International Electricity Trade - Open Access DOE has consistently expressed its policy that international electricity trade should be...

126

World energy consumption  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Historical and projected world energy consumption information is displayed. The information is presented by region and fuel type, and includes a world total. Measurements are in quadrillion Btu. Sources of the information contained in the table are: (1) history--Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 1992, DOE/EIA-0219(92); (2) projections--EIA, World Energy Projections System, 1994. Country amounts include an adjustment to account for electricity trade. Regions or country groups are shown as follows: (1) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), US (not including US territories), which are included in other (ECD), Canada, Japan, OECD Europe, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, other Europe, and other OECD; (2) Eurasia--China, former Soviet Union, eastern Europe; (3) rest of world--Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries not included in any other group. Fuel types include oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and other. Other includes hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, biomass, wind, and other renewable sources.

NONE

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Trade and institutions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

From Non-Discriminatory Liberalisation to FTAs, The WorldMarket Protection GDP Liberalisation Intensity Labor Market

Mahakitsiri, Doungdao

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

World nuclear outlook 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

NONE

1995-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

129

World nuclear outlook 1994  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for three different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

NONE

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

131

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

132

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

TRADE COSTS AND THE GAINS FROM TRADE IN CROP AGRICULTURE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

costs, trade liberalization. JEL codes: F18, Q17, Q54. Although the theoretical case for the gains from

Tullos, Desiree

134

P 4.1 CITEL Climate change and international trade from an economic and legal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

45 P 4.1 CITEL Climate change and international trade from an economic and legal perspective PI What does the law of the World Trade Organization (WTO law) say about border tax adjustment measures (BTA measures) for regulations, technical standards and taxes on climate-related process and production

Richner, Heinz

135

10. China's Emergence, Real Exchange Rates, and Implications for East Asian Regional Trade and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

10. China's Emergence, Real Exchange Rates, and Implications for East Asian Regional Trade arena is China, whose economic reforms have led it to record growth rates, dramatically accelerating results of sustained trade surpluses and managed exchange rate policies, China now holds the world

Kammen, Daniel M.

136

Corporate governance and insider trading  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

I investigate the relation between corporate governance and insider trading by corporate executives. Despite the general view that trade on non-public information adversely affects capital market participants, the impact ...

Rozanov, Konstantin A

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

The European Carbon Market in Action: Lessons from the First Trading Period Interim Report  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the largest greenhouse gas market ever established. The European Union is leading the world's first effort to mobilize market forces to tackle climate change. A precise ...

Convery, Frank

138

The European carbon market in action : the first trading period, Interim report  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the largest greenhouse gas market ever established. The European Union is leading the world's first effort to mobilize market forces to tackle climate change. A precise ...

Convery, Frank J.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Essays on trade, CO?, and the environment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The first chapter of this thesis uses a general equilibrium model of trade and the environment to investigate two questions. First, how do the gains from trade compare against the environmental costs of trade? Trade can ...

Shapiro, Joseph S

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

National Geothermal Association Trade Mission to Central America  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States (US) geothermal industry, the world's most technically proficient, has been unable to achieve penetration into the markets of the developing nations. This report details the findings of an industry Trade Mission to Central America, tasked with determining the reasons for this shortfall and with developing a US industry geothermal export strategy designed to achieve immediate and long-term export benefits.

Not Available

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028677 Model Calibration and Automated Trading Agent for Euro  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

technical analysis indicators. This approach takes advantage of boosting's feature selection capability This approach has been applied to forecast and trade S&P 500 index futures [58, 15], the Warsaw stock price index 20 (WIG20) futures [60], and Korea stock index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures [38]. Hamid and Iqbal [33

Tesfatsion, Leigh

143

International Trade of Biofuels (Brochure)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In recent years, the production and trade of biofuels has increased to meet global demand for renewable fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel contribute much of this trade because they are the most established biofuels. Their growth has been aided through a variety of policies, especially in the European Union, Brazil, and the United States, but ethanol trade and production have faced more targeted policies and tariffs than biodiesel. This fact sheet contains a summary of the trade of biofuels among nations, including historical data on production, consumption, and trade.

Not Available

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more ...

Ng, Jeffrey

145

Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

Goodman, Theodore H.

146

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

148

Sikkim and Himalayan Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lama. 6 The merchandise imported from Sikkim to Darjeeling, as the report indicated, consisted of horses, cattle including sheep and goats. blankets. salt. musk. wax, ghee, oranges. millet, rice, lime and 11 copper. The imports in 1863 were nearly... would be exported to Sikkim and Tibet replacing brick tea imported from Lhasa and China. Trade was conducted in four routes in Sikkim : two via Namchee and Chadam to the Great Rangeet and two via Zeeme to Goke and Tramduc to Colbong. The Tibetan...

Sen, Jahar

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

150

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation

Boyer, Edmond

151

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

152

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservationLoad forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

153

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections of commercial floor space

154

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

155

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared

156

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

157

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

158

World Biodiesel Markets The Outlook to 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

World Biodiesel Markets The Outlook to 2010 A special study from F.O. Licht and Agra CEAS This important new study provides a detailed analysis of the global biodiesel market and the outlook for growth, including the regulatory and trade framework, feedstock supply and price developments, biodiesel production

159

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 Gorin Principal Authors Lynn Marshall Project Manager Kae C. Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting

160

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

162

World production, consumption and international trade of rice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-term loans. Co-operative organizations also play a very important part 1n financ- ing agriculture. In the East, Japan has developed this system quite satisfactorily. The oo-operative, organized on a village basis, provides loans in cash and 1n kind... heavy burden on the agrarian population. The village money-landers are a curse in disguise in many oases. These money-lendsrs are ths only source of credit in times of pestilence and need in countries uhere the farm fi+nce system is not adequately...

Khan, Anwaruzzaman

1957-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Emissions trading under market imperfections.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In this thesis we consider emissions trading under various market imperfections such as uncertainty over permit price, imperfect competition and noncompliance. First, we study the (more)

Lappi, Pauli

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Emissions trading and technological change.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Emissions trading programmes have grown in number and scope over the last forty years, and in the last decade they have become a centrepiece of (more)

Calel, Raphael

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia: Capital Controls and the US-Colombia Trade Agreement@bu.edu #12;Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia: Capital Controls and the US-Colombia Trade Agreement SerieBrief # 66 | Abril 2011 Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia: Capital Controls and the US-Colombia

Tufts University

166

Changing patterns of world energy consumption  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The substantial increases in oil prices since 1973 have had tremendous impacts on world energy, and particularly on oil consumption. These impacts have varied across regions and energy types. As shown in a table, from 1960 through 1973 the real price of internationally traded crude oil, as measured in constant US dollars, changed very little. In this stable oil price environment, Free World energy consumption grew at 5.3% per year and oil use rose at 7.5% per year, increasing its share of Free World energy consumption from 43 to 56%. 6 tables.

Todd, S.H.

1983-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) is the probability forecast based on an arbitrary vector wE in the unit simplex, experts forecasts ?E , and model {p?} . Remark 2 In most cases, we can choose c = 1/?, implying in the result below that c? = 1. Example 3 The prediction function is a mixture... 0 = 1, and #IT (k) = tk+1 ? tk. Define ek ? E. Theorem 12 Under Conditions 1 and 7, R1,...,t (pW ) ? c? K? k=0 Rt(k),...,t(k+1)?1 ( p?(e(k)) ) + c ln (#E) ?c K? k=1 ln ut(k) (ek, ek?1)? c K? k=0 t(k+1)?2? s=t(k) ln (us+1 (ek, ek)) . 9 Remark 13...

Sancetta, Alessio

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

168

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Power Basics (TheEtelligence (SmartHome Kyoung's pictureFlintFlowerForecast

170

Green Industrial Policy: Trade and Theory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Papers Year 2012 Paper 1126 Green Industrial Policy: Trade 2012 by author(s). Green Industrial Policy: Trade andreality and the potential for green indus- trial policy. We

Karp, Larry; Stevenson, Megan

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Presentation on Hydrogen...

172

International Emissions Trading: Design and Political Acceptability.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis discusses the design and political acceptability of international emissions trading. It is shown that there are several designs options for emissions trading at (more)

Boom, Jan Tjeerd

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

Sancetta, Alessio

175

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

176

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

177

Solid low-level waste forecasting guide  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

The Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

179

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html IAWind 2010 Ames, IA, April 6, 2010 #12;Outline Background Using wind power forecasts in market operations ­ Current status in U.S. markets ­ Handling uncertainties in system operations ­ Wind power

Kemner, Ken

180

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview Campus by campus Snapshot in time Not all projects Construction coordination efforts

Kamat, Vineet R.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

182

Rising College Premiums in Mexico: How Important Is Trade?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

trade and investment liberalisation, nancial crisis, andR. , 2000. Trade liberalisation and wage inequality: Lessons

Mehta, Aashish; Acuna, Belinda

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

184

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation Vivien Mallet1. [1] Sequential aggregation is an ensemble forecasting approach that weights each ensemble member based on past observations and past forecasts. This approach has several limitations: The weights

Mallet, Vivien

185

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is to issue deterministic forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models. Uncertainty canProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc discretization than is seen in other weather quantities. The prevailing paradigm in weather forecasting

Washington at Seattle, University of

186

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes MURUVVET CELIKBAS1 departments which enable organizations to match demand forecasts with production quantities. This research problem where demand is uncertain and the marketing de- partment provides a forecast to manufacturing

Swaminathan, Jayashankar M.

187

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy-2 Demand Forecast Disaggregation......................................................1-4 Statewide

188

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand Aggregate plan Master production Planning and Forecast Bias · Forecast error seldom is normally distributed · There are few finite planning

Brock, David

189

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

Parsons, Simon

190

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

191

A Tracing Method for Pricing Inter-Area Electricity Trades  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to be politically acceptable (Green, 1997). Different countries placed different emphasis on each of these requirements and, as the result, there are hardly two countries in the world with identical transmission pricing regimes. This creates a problem when we come... to cross-border trades. How should these be charged for? If two adjacent systems shared a common transmission pricing methodology, it would be straightforward (economically, if not always politically) to think of them as a common system and obtain...

Kattuman, Paul; Green, Richard J; Bialek, Janusz

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

192

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and ResourcesOtherForecasting NREL researchers use solar and

193

Dilmaya's World  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

burning on a funeral pyre. I had never lived for more than a day or in a world without toilets or toilet papers, where there was no central heating and no window glass to keep out the cold Himalayan winds. * * * Short of finding the very... infancy to puberty in a remote Himalayan village. So Dilmaya allowed this, as well as encouraging our love for her sons and husband. All this was achieved while she looked after us physically and stretched her mind and body to the limits...

Alan, Macfarlane

2014-08-27T23:59:59.000Z

194

Endogenous trade protection under regional trade agreements: the Andean case  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, by the owners of the production factors. The trade policy will result from the maximization of the 8 government?s objective function, which explicitly includes a trade off between the two arguments described above... found slight evidence supporting the status quo model, as they found that the fifth lag of the tariff turned out to have a positive significant coefficient, implying that current tariff levels were a relevant factor in determining any...

Sanchez Bizot, Gustavo

2006-08-16T23:59:59.000Z

195

5 World Oil Trends WORLD OIL TRENDS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5 World Oil Trends Chapter 1 WORLD OIL TRENDS INTRODUCTION In considering the outlook for California's petroleum supplies, it is important to give attention to expecta- tions of what the world oil market. Will world oil demand increase and, if so, by how much? How will world oil prices be affected

196

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

197

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

Heinemann, Detlev

198

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

199

Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. This thesis proposes and studies a method to use measurements of the real event in order to steer and accelerate fire simulations. This technology aims at providing forecasts of the fire development with a positive lead time, i.e. the forecast of future events...

Jahn, Wolfram

200

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

202

Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

Genève, Université de

203

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

204

-Assessment of current water conditions -Precipitation Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;-Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought of the mountains, so early demand for irrigation water should be minimal as we officially move into spring. Western, it is forecast to bring wet snow to the eastern slope of the Rockies, with less accumulations west of the divide

205

A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

Vertes, Akos

206

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

de Lijser, Peter

207

NAIHC Convention and Trade Show  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The National American Indian Housing Council's (NAIHC)most longstanding Annual Event, the 39th Annual NAIHC Convention and Trade Show is an opportunity to learn about tribal housing, attend...

208

Securities trading of concepts (STOC)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Identifying winning new product concepts can be a challenging process that requires insight into private consumer preferences. To measure consumer preferences for new product concepts, the authors apply a securities trading ...

Dahan, Ely

209

The Value of Emissions Trading  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing attention on a here-to-fore neglected component: its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and ...

Webster, Mort David.

210

NIST Standards in Trade Workshops Increase  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NIST Standards in Trade Workshops Increase Trade Opportunities and Exports for U.S. Industry Since 1995, U.S. industry has looked to the NIST Standards in Trade (SIT) Workshop Program to provide opportunities for cooperation on topics related to standards, conformity assessment and trade that are important

211

Cap-and-Trade A. Denny Ellerman  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MIT CEEEPR Cap-and-Trade A. Denny Ellerman Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emissions Trading for Energy and Environmental Policy Research #12;MIT CEEEPR Two Types of Air Emissions Trading · Credit- · OTC/SIP-Call NOx Budget Programs: 1999- · EU's CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme: 2005- ­ The first CO2

212

Emissions Trading: A Feasible Analysis for UBC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Emissions Trading: A Feasible Analysis for UBC Vivian Hoffman, J Chisholm I. Introduction The GVRD environmental objectives are achieved. Emissions reduction credit trading (or emissions trading) is an example Valley (LFV). Section III describes the market-based instruments of emissions trading and facility

213

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, France Financial support received by the "New Issues in Agricultural, Food and Bio-energy TradeApplying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs? Angela CHEPTEA, Alexandre to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs? Angela CHEPTEA INRA, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes, France

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

215

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2011-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

216

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2010-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

217

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

219

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

220

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra +  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra + Abstract Consider a weather forecaster predicting a probability of rain for the next day. We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster. Sandroni shows that any test

Fortnow, Lance

222

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

223

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

225

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

226

Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

we have an evolving demand forecast. Under assumptions about the forecasts, the demand process their supply chain operations based on a forecast of future demand over some planning horizon. Furthermore stock inventory in a supply chain that is subject to a dynamic, evolving demand forecast. In particular

Graves, Stephen C.

227

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast supports the analysis and recommendations of the 2007 Integrated Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly

228

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

will use small limit orders to search for trading counter parties. Once they have identified a dealer who has indicated a willingness to trade, they will enter into quantity negotiations, i.e. a workup will take place. This process affords greater anonymity... the dataset and characterises the data in terms of transaction size, intensity and workups. A comprehensive examination of the data is undertaken and the analysis suggests that the information content of news arrival, volume and workup time each have a role...

Dungey, Mardi; Henry, Olan; McKenzie, Michael

230

Emissions Trading, Electricity Industry Restructuring, and Investment in Pollution Abatement  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Foss, B . "Carbon Emissions Trading is New Weapon to BattleBehavior and the Emission Trading Market, Resources andof Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading." The Journal of

Fowlie, Meredith

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

BP's Perspective on Emissions Purdue Emissions Trading Workshop  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BP's Perspective on Emissions Trading Purdue Emissions Trading Workshop April 30, 2010 Mark - Government policies can create a carbon price via three primary mechanisms: - Emissions trading (BP's strong

232

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

233

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

236

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel

237

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

238

Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

239

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the designation as UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOLAR April 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering DYNAMIC ALGORITHM FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM A Junior Scholars Thesis by LUKE DUNCAN FISCHER Submitted to the Office of Undergraduate... 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering iii ABSTRACT Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System. (April 2010) Luke Duncan Fischer Department of Nuclear Engineering Texas A&M University Research Advisor: Dr. Stephen Guetersloh...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

240

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Essays on Trade and Production Sharing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

content, the bilateral VAX ratio of China-U.S. trade is: vaillustrates that the bilateral VAX ratio removes both theTherefore, the bilateral VAX ratio for Japan-U.S. trade is

Noguera, Guillermo Marcelo

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Essays on trades and security prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis consists of three chapters that investigate the complex relation between security prices and trades of market participants. In the first chapter, I study the evolution of stock prices after trades with different ...

Obizhaeva, Anna

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Essays on international trade and investment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation consists of three essays on international trade and investment. In the first essay, I study how cross-country differences in labor market institutions shape the pattern of international trade with a focus ...

Tang, Heiwai

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

The Trade and Climate Change Joint Agenda  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Abstract Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have on investment or services trade that prevent this transfer of expertise and technology must be removed." EU ............................................................................................. 6 3. Sectoral Issues: International Aviation and Maritime Shipping

245

Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of human development and carbon emissions embodied in trade03.html) Lo A Y 2012 Carbon emissions trading in Chinagoal is to regulate carbon emissions, then, because only a

Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Energy trading and information systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document contains reports which were presented at the meeting on Energy Trading and Information Systems. Topics were concerned with the importance and use of information systems to the natural gas industry. Individual papers have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

NONE

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

247

Illegal Logging and Related Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted by Stephen Austin and Sons Ltd The material selected for the printing of this report is Elemental Chlorine framework 14 3.1.3 Checks and balances 16 3.1.4 International trade cooperation 18 3.1.5 Ensuring a balance

248

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

249

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

250

IATP | Trade Observatory | Headlines q What's new  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

towards the elimination of tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and putting in place more effective trade rules

251

China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% China's forest products trade falls nearly 18%  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% 11/08/2009 - 09:05 According to China's latest Customs statistics, foreign trade of China's forest products in the first five months showed a year-on-year general downturn. The total value of foreign trade of China

252

MERCOSUR-European Union Trade: How Important is EU Trade Liberalisation for MERCOSUR's  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MERCOSUR-European Union Trade: How Important is EU Trade Liberalisation for MERCOSUR's Exports: + 34 - 964 - 72 86 16 1 #12;MERCOSUR-European Union Trade: How Important is EU Trade Liberalisation's exports' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since

Krivobokova, Tatyana

253

ICTSD Project on Trade and Sustainable Land Management International Centre for Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Sustainable Development Selected Issue Briefs ICTSD Programme on Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development Trade and Sustainable Land Management in Drylands August 2007 #12;#12;August 2007 ICTSD Programme on Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development Trade and Sustainable Land Management in Drylands Selected Issue

254

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Day Trading: Making and Taking Liquidity and Manipulation on the National Stock Exchange of India  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Day Trading: Making and Taking Liquidity and Manipulation on the National Stock Exchange of India that virtually all of the stock exchanges in the world are electronic limit order books. Even the New York Stock a description of liquidity making and taking, without testing any proper models of the activities. This seems

Lin, Xiaodong

256

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

257

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

258

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

259

Trade balance instability and the optimal exchange rate regime: The case of OPEC countries  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The OPEC members have experienced wide fluctuations in their trade balances. This can be attributed to several factors: (1) heavy dependence of national income and export earnings on a single primary export-oil; (2) instability of price and world demand for oil; and (3) the exchange rate regime practiced in recent years. An exchange rate policy can be used to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance, given the changes in exchange rates of major international currencies. The purpose of this study is two fold; first, examine the effects of fluctuations in trade balance on the OPEC economies, and second, propose appropriate exchange rate regime for selected OPEC members. The study is divided into two parts. The first part demonstrates the impact of trade balance changes on national income and other macroeconomic variables using a Keynesian framework. The second part involves using conventional trade models to search for the appropriate exchange rate regime to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance of each selective country. The study's findings are: first, fluctuations in trade balances had negative effects on the economics of Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the current exchange rate regime of no sample country is optimal in minimizing trade balance fluctuations. Third, in contrast to expectations, U.S. dollar peg did not stabilize the trade balance of any OPEC member. Finally, the results show that the sample OPEC economies could have enjoyed faster - though with different degree - economic growth if they had pegged their currencies to the derived optimal exchange rate regime. These optimal exchange rate regimes are: the SDR for Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, the purchasing power parity for Libya and Saudi Arabia, and the real Yen for Kuwait.

Aljerrah, M.A.

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

96 International THE WORLD IN 2OO5 he new millennium opened with great expectations.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

through trade policy, increased official development assistance (oda) and technology transfer to extend96 International THE WORLD IN 2OO5 T he new millennium opened with great expectations. When 147 the benefits of globalisation and new technologies to the world's poorest people, with quantified targets

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting of Computational Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in advance can improve the performance obtained drastically. Our key finding is that a random walk predictor performs best for one-step-ahead forecasts, whereas ARIMA(1,1,0) and adaptive exponential smoothing models perform better for two and three-step-ahead forecasts. A Monte Carlo bootstrap test is proposed to evaluate the continuous prediction performance of different models with arbitrary confidence and statistical significance levels. Although the prediction results differ between the Tycoon and PlanetLab networks, we observe very similar overall statistical properties, such as volatility dynamics.

Sandholm, Thomas

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economists Gold Price Forecasts, Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold

Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

Datta, Shoumen

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

264

Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

Chevis, Gia Marie

2004-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

265

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

266

Description of the United States sorghum subsector and the development of a seasonal sorghum cash price forecasting model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Twent -six Years of World Cereal Statistics, World Grain Trade Sta- tistics 1950-51/1972-73, the FAS, and various issues of the ~Forei n A riculture Circular. EEC countries and Japanese cattle, swine, and chicken numbers were obtained from the FAS... conventional grain drying systems, 40, 000-bu. capacity, 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 19 General trends in railroad rates and costs 1972 and 1975 . 64 20 Interstate Commerce Commission, Revenue/Cost analysis, Noncompensatory rates, 1975. 65 21 Ocean...

Jackson, David Michael

1978-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Structure and Controls of the Global Virtual Water Trade Network  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e. the amount of water used to produce a given commodity. We build, analyze and model the network describing the transfer of virtual water between world nations for staple food products. We find that all the key features of the network are well described by a model that reproduces both the topological and weighted properties of the global virtual water trade network, by assuming as sole controls each country's gross domestic product and yearly rainfall on agricultural areas. We capture and quantitatively describe the high degree of globalization of water trade and show that a small group of nations play a key role in the connectivity of the network and in the global redistribution of virtual water. Finally, we illustrate examples of prediction of the structure of the network under fut...

Suweis, S; Dalin, C; Hanasaki, N; Rinaldo, A; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; 10.1029/2011GL046837

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

270

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps to Sargent BCH NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102 Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles West Bay #12;Aransas Bay

272

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

273

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

274

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1 Adrian E. Raftery, Fadoua forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper of PDFs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal

Washington at Seattle, University of

275

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the NN5 Time Series Forecasting competition Robert R. Andrawis Dept Computer Engineering Cairo University, Giza, Egypt robertrezk@eg.ibm.com November 6, 2010 Abstract In this work we introduce a forecasting model with which we participated

Atiya, Amir

276

GET your forecast at the click of a button.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GET your forecast at the click of a button. EXPLORE your local weather in detail. PLAN your days favourite locations; · Pan and zoom to any area in Australia; · Combine the latest weather and forecast current temperatures across Australia. MetEyeTM computer screen image displaying the weather forecast

Greenslade, Diana

277

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination Xiongqing Zhang Carr.) in Beijing, forecast combination was used to adjust predicted stand basal areas from these three types of models. The forecast combination method combines information and disperses errors from

Cao, Quang V.

278

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans

Steenburgh, Jim

279

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

280

Earnings forecast bias -a statistical analysis Franois Dossou  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis François Dossou Sandrine Lardic** Karine Michalon' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta* Department of Economics Bayesian and classical methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition-sample period and January 1990 to March 2009 as the out-of- sample horizon, we compare the forecast performance

Ahmad, Sajjad

282

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China Presenter: Zhifeng Hao can be divided into load forecasting and electrical consumption predicting according to forecasting in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and so on. And the prediction is from one day to seven

283

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

284

Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

285

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

286

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

287

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption

288

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff in the Demand Analysis. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data

289

Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Draft for Public Comment A-1 Appendix A. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation had a tradition of acknowledging the uncertainty of any forecast of electricity demand and developing

290

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

McBurney, Peter

291

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services Peter McBurney and Simon.j.mcburney,s.d.parsonsg@elec.qmw.ac.uk Abstract. This paper outlines an application of belief functions to forecasting the demand for a new service in a new category, based on new technology. Forecasting demand for a new product or service

McBurney, Peter

292

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

293

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

294

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

Perez, Richard R.

295

Services trade liberalisation and patterns of trade in intermediates: determinants, comparative advantage and intra-firm trade.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This dissertation consists of four chapters, which are self-contained and can be read independently of each other. In Chapter 1, we analyse services trade liberalisation, (more)

Lanz, Rainer

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

299

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

300

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia. FURTHER INFORMATION: www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 From © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Australia Coastal Waters Zones

Greenslade, Diana

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

302

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

303

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surface. In this paper, a case is presented for which the operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWP) HIRLAM

Stoffelen, Ad

304

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

305

Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

306

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

307

Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been to develop a generic model for summarisation of time series data. Initially, we have applied standard

Sripada, Yaji

308

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

309

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

310

Alternative Trading Arrangements for Intermittent Renewable Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Intermittent Renewable Power: A Centralised Renewables Market and Other Concepts Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Alternative Trading Arrangements for...

311

Certification and Regulation of Trade in Biofuels.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The recent increase in biofuel production and trade has raised concerns about environmental and other impacts, and has prompted some governments to initiate measures to (more)

Thomson, Vivien

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

U.S. Timber Production, Trade, Consumption,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Technology Assessment Unit at the Forest Products Laboratory. Chris McKeever created computer files managers, forest industries, trade associations, forestry schools, renewable resource organizations

Laughlin, Robert B.

313

Essays on International Finance and Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sapsford, 1994, What Does Liberalisation Do for Exports andand Economic Development: Liberalisation Attempts and2002b, Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in

Zeng, Li

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Regulation, Allocation, and Leakage in Cap-and-Trade Markets for CO2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competitiveness in the eu emissions trading scheme: Policyand-trade systems for emissions trading is the allocation orciency of the resulting emissions trading market. Certainly

Bushnell, Jim B; Chen, Yihsu

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of a range of world oil prices for future energy demand andTo examine the ef feet of oil prices on energy demand andprojections of world oil prices. Th and demand. determined

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Essays on International Finance and Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Turkey UK Canada Mexico Norway Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxForecast horizon Canada Norway Mexico Turkey MSE MAE DIR MSEForecast horizon Canada Norway Mexico Turkey MSE MAE DIR MSE

Zeng, Li

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

A Non Parametric Model for the Forecasting of the Venezuelan Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A neural net model for forecasting the prices of Venezuelan crude oil is proposed. The inputs of the neural net are selected by reference to a dynamic system model of oil prices by Mashayekhi (1995, 2001) and its performance is evaluated using two criteria: the Excess Profitability test by Anatoliev and Gerko (2005) and the characteristics of the equity curve generated by a trading strategy based on the neural net predictions. ----- Se introduce aqui un modelo no parametrico para pronosticar los precios del petroleo Venezolano cuyos insumos son seleccionados en base a un sistema dinamico que explica los precios en terminos de dichos insumos. Se describe el proceso de recoleccion y pre-procesamiento de datos y la corrida de la red y se evaluan sus pronosticos a traves de un test estadistico de predictibilidad y de las caracteristicas del Equity Curve inducido por la estrategia de compraventa bursatil generada por dichos pronosticos.

Costanzo, Sabatino; Dehne, Wafaa; Prato, Hender

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Progress report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1980 to December 31, 1981 of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing forecasting methods that integrate the following considerations which influence investment in oil capacity and the level of oil exports: (1) the geology and microeconomics ...

International Energy Studies Program (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Oil Trading Simon Basey / November 28, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. A hurricane develops in the Gulf of Mexico and threatens to shut in crude production. d. New data indicatesOil Trading Simon Basey / November 28, 2013 #12;2 What does IST do? Imports crude oil and other Markets BP's equity crude oil, NGLs and natural gas Generates entrepreneurial trading income Manages BP

Sheldon, Nathan D.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Port Royal, Jamaica, and the slave trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the eighteenth century in the Florida Keys, Henrietta Marie had just quit Port Royal after off-loading her human cargo. The artifact collection of shackles, ship's equipment and trade goods represents the trappings of the maritime slave trade. Particularly...

Johnson, David A

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

as well as a trade-o? between energy and food. We alsogood, including energy, increases with trade. For givena?ect energy and food prices and patterns of trade. 2 In

Hochman, Gal; Sexton, Steven; Zilberman, David D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

The Export Question: Designing Policy for British Columbia Electricity Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Export Question: Designing Policy for British Columbia Electricity Trade Dr. George Hoberg..........................................................................................................................................5 2 BC's Electricity Trade Picture: Context and Trends........................................................................6 2.1 How electricity trading works

Pedersen, Tom

324

Market power in international carbon emissions trading: a laboratory test  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prospect that governments of one or a few large countries, or trading blocs, would engage in international greenhouse gas emissions trading has led several policy analysts to express concerns that trade would be ...

Carln, Bjrn.

325

Purdue Climate Change Research Center Emissions Trading Workshop  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Purdue Climate Change Research Center Emissions Trading Workshop Introduction and Overview manner. Workshop rather than conference. #12;What is Emissions Trading? (or "Cap and Trade") · Cap & Enforcement · Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) mechanisms for reductions #12;Five Emissions

326

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

327

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

328

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

329

DOE Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information DOE Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information March 8, 2011 - 5:26pm Addthis The...

330

DOE Finalizes New Rule to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information DOE Finalizes New Rule to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information May 5, 2011 - 4:55pm Addthis The...

331

High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production Builders - Building America Top Innovation High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production Builders -...

332

Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

trade mission focused on connecting U.S. businesses with opportunities in the green infrastructure and energy efficiency industries. This trade mission will promote...

333

Emissions trading and its likely effects on the airline industry.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This study concerns the extension of emissions trading to the airline industry and was designed to clarify and substantiate likely effects of the Emissions Trading (more)

Recht-Hansen, Sonja

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

United Nations on Trade and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by the World Summit on Sustainable Development in September 2002, the United Nations Forum on Forests on the Management, Conservation and Sustainable Development of All Types of Forests, and the relevant Chapters on the Management, Conservation and Sustainable Development of All Types of Forests; (e) Recognizing the importance

335

World Oil Transit Chokepoints  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes, some so narrow that restrictions are placed on the size of vessel that can navigate through them. They are a critical part of global energy security due to the high volume of oil traded through their narrow straits.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix D ECONOMIC AND DEMAND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AND DEMAND FORECASTS INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Role of the Demand Forecast A demand forecast of at least 20 years is one of the explicit requirements of the Northwest Power Act. A demand forecast is, of course analysis. Because the future is inherently uncertain, the Council forecasts a range of future demand levels

337

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

Xiao, Heng; Gustafson, William I.; Wang, Hailong

2014-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

339

Developed Countries' Imposed Standards on Trade of Agricultural Imports from Developing Countries  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for cuts of meat, especially beef, is high and growing in developed countries around the world, and trade theory would predict a steady flow of exports from these countries to markets in the United States, the European Union, and elsewhere. Gaining... access to developed markets, however, is difficult and expensive, and for much of developing Africa has proved impossible to date. A primary barrier facing potential exporters is strict government policy in developed countries regarding food production...

Cabrera, Raul; Cochran, Matt; Dangelmayr, Lauren; D'Aguilar, Gavin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Speir, Ian; Weigand, Courtney

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Dependence, independence, and interdependence in world politics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We implement techniques of graph theory to international trade in order to empirically inspect the international system of trade. Examining macro and submacro levels of the international system of trade from 1962-2003, we ...

Mistree, Dinsha (Dinsha Farrokh Allen)

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource February 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource February 2014 January...

343

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource April 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource April 2014 March 2015 Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry)...

344

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Preference Month CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource May 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource May 2014 April...

345

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

based on Green Book ("Above Normal") values. Base Resource March 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource March 2014 February 2015 Exceedence Level: 90%...

346

analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

347

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind...

349

Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

Gordon, Geoffrey J.

352

World Elephant Centre:.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The World Elephant Centre tackles two problems of our time, in a global relevance framework. In fact, it is not only a typical case of (more)

Rota, M.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

What in the World are Possible Worlds?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

talk of possible worlds? In this thesis, I will attempt to outline the most significant and well-recognized view in this debate: that of David Lewis. Through my discussion of him, I will find occasion to discuss some alternative views that have arisen...

Dondero, Mark

2010-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

354

Heat Management Strategy Trade Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Heat Management Trade Study was performed in 2008-2009 to expand on prior studies in continued efforts to analyze and evaluate options for cost-effectively managing SNF reprocessing wastes. The primary objective was to develop a simplified cost/benefit evaluation for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) reprocessing that combines the characteristics of the waste generated through reprocessing with the impacts of the waste on heating the repository. Under consideration were age of the SNF prior to reprocessing, plutonium and minor actinide (MA) separation from the spent fuel for recycle, fuel value of the recycled Pu and MA, age of the remaining spent fuel waste prior to emplacement in the repository, length of time that active ventilation is employed in the repository, and elemental concentration and heat limits for acceptable glass waste form durability. A secondary objective was to identify and qualitatively analyze remaining issues such as (a) impacts of aging SNF prior to reprocessing on the fuel value of the recovered fissile materials, and (b) impact of reprocessing on the dose risk as developed in the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). Results of this study can be used to evaluate different options for managing decay heat in waste streams from spent nuclear fuel.

Nick Soelberg; Steve Priebe; Dirk Gombert; Ted Bauer

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Rick arbitrage : analysis and trading systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this thesis we quantify the risk arbitrage investment process and create trading strategies that generate positive risk-adjusted returns. We use a sample of 895 stock swap mergers, cash mergers, and cash tender offers ...

Naheta, Akshay, 1981-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energytrade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied inWithin this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO 2

Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

An empirical analysis of quantitative trading strategies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Along with the increasing computing power, growing availability of various data streams, introduction of the electronic exchanges, decreasing trading costs and heating-up competition in financial investment industry, ...

Aiuchi, Masaharu

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Electric trade in the United States 1994  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1994, the wholesale trade market totaled 1.9 trillion kilowatthours, about 66% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1994 (ELECTRA), is the fifth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1994.

NONE

1998-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Trade Pattern and Economic Development when Endogenous  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Trade Pattern and Economic Development when Endogenous and Exogenous Comparative Advantages Coexist Pattern and Economic Development when Endogenous and Exogenous Comparative Advantages Coexist Jeffrey disappears. Two types of dual structure may occur in the transitional stage of economic development

360

Equity and Emissions Trading in China  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

China has embarked on an ambitious pathway for establishing a national carbon market in the next five to ten years. In this study, we analyze the distributional aspects of a Chinese emissions-trading scheme from ethical, ...

Zhang, D.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

The temporal efficiency of SO? emissions trading  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the temporal efficiency of the U.S. Acid Rain Program, which implemented a nationwide market for trading and banking sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission allowances. We first develop ...

Ellerman, A. Denny

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Is international emissions trading always beneficial?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic efficiency is a major argument for the inclusion of an international emission permit trading system under the Kyoto Protocol. Using a partial equilibrium framework, energy system models have shown that implementing ...

Babiker, Mustafa H.M.

363

State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned andof goods as well as to forecast the expected future truckused for the short-term forecasts of freight volumes on

Chow, Joseph Y.; Yang, Choon Heon; Regan, Amelia C.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

revisions to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller Abstract We present an electricity demand forecasting algorithm based on Gaussian processes. By introducing. Introduction Electricity demand forecasting is an important aspect of the control and scheduling of power

Teschner, Matthias

367

Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

Wickham, Richard Robert

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Promoting Sustainable Bioenergy Production and Trade Issue Paper No. 17  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and Trade Policy 4.3 Energy Crops Scheme 20 4.4 Sugar, wine, rye ... 21 4.5 Pillar 2 22 5. IMPORT, and Trade Policy ICTSD Global Platform on Climate Change, Trade Policies and Sustainable Energy #12;#12;June Manager of the Global Platform on Climate Change, Trade Policies and Sustainable Energy: Marie Chamay

370

The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading Tianyu Qi, Niven Trading Tianyu Qi* , Niven Winchester , Valerie J. Karplus and Xiliang Zhang Abstract Emissions trading of the European Union's Emissions Trading System with a new system in Australia in 2015, this paper simulates

371

7Emissions Trading Workshop Summary Report Discussion Synthesis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

7Emissions Trading Workshop Summary Report Discussion Synthesis Background On April 30, 2010, more than 70 people gathered for an all-day workshop on emissions trading at Purdue University's Discovery of different emission trading proposals. The need for such discussion is great. Pollution trading is a high

372

Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "of EnergyEnergyENERGYWomen Owned SmallOf TheViolations | Department of EnergyisWilliamForecasting

373

Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST31 ORV 15051SoilWind Energy Wind RenewableForecast

374

Forecast calls for better models | EMSL  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-SeriesFlickr Flickr Editor's note: Since theNational SupplementalFor theForecast

375

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Facilities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecasting

376

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecastingResearch

377

Trade liberalisation in Zambia : popular discourses on trade liberalisation in Zambia.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The aim of this study is to analyse the discourses on trade liberalization in Zambia. In 1991, the Zambian government embarked on a series of (more)

Kaira, Wezi

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Momentum Trading and Limits to Arbitrage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MOMENTUM TRADING AND LIMITS TO ARBITRAGE A Dissertation by WILLIAM JOSEPH ARMSTRONG Submitted to the O ce of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial ful llment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 2012... Major Subject: Finance MOMENTUM TRADING AND LIMITS TO ARBITRAGE A Dissertation by WILLIAM JOSEPH ARMSTRONG Submitted to the O ce of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial ful llment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR...

Armstrong, William

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

379

Electric trade in the United States, 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1996, the wholesale trade market totaled 2.3 trillion kilowatthours, over 73% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1996 (ELECTRA), is the sixth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1996. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. 1 fig., 43 tabs.

NONE

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast ................................................................................................. 2 Economic Drivers of Residential Demand

383

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing quasi-deterministic components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

385

Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

Bailey, James

386

On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer Weisheimer to achieving a "5"? à Use reliability of non-climatological forecastsDon: · if (X) C(X) à climatological (reliable) informaDon · if (X) C(X) à

Stevenson, Paul

387

SATELLITE BASED SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR IRRADANCE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SATELLITE BASED SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR IRRADANCE - COMPARISON OF METHODS AND ERROR Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources method was used to derive motion vector fields from two consecutive images. The future image

Heinemann, Detlev

388

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables existing forecast-based models. I. INTRODUCTION A key goal of smart grid efforts is to substantially-based prediction models built using seven distinct weather forecast metrics are 27% more accurate for our site than

Shenoy, Prashant

389

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

Boyer, Edmond

390

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting water

Keller, Arturo A.

391

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

392

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

393

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

394

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

distribution; Numerical weather prediction; Skewed distribution; Truncated data; Wind energy. 1. INTRODUCTION- native. Purely statistical methods have been applied to short-range forecasts for wind speed only a fewProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

Raftery, Adrian

395

Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

Miami, University of

396

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

397

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

Hoff, William A.

398

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

Wegley, H.L.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

Mohaghegh, Shahab

402

System integrated considerations for multi-hazard mitigation, preparedness and response in World Expo compound  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Expo compound Masanobu Shinozuka University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA ABSTRACT Large urban, preparedness and emergency response for lifeline systems such as transportation, water, electric power networks". The fact that design of World Trade Center Towers did not consider potential release of combustion energy

Shinozuka, Masanobu

403

France to host world's first nuclear fusion plant swissinfo June 28, 2005 3:35 PM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a commercially viable reactor is built, if at all. "We are making scientific history," Janez Potocnik alternative to the world's depleting stocks of oil and gas. The search took on new significance as crude this week reached a record price of $60.95 a barrel in some trading. Next week, a summit of the Group

404

Publish or Patent: Bibliometric evidence for empirical trade-offs in national funding strategies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multivariate linear regression models suggest a trade-off in allocations of national R&D investments. Government funding, and spending in the higher education sector, seem to encourage publications, whereas other components such as industrial funding, and spending in the business sector, encourage patenting. Our results help explain why the US trails the EU in publications, because of its focus on industrial funding - some 70% of its total R&D investment. Conversely, it also helps explain why the EU trails the US in patenting. Government funding is indicated as a negative incentive to high-quality patenting. The models here can also be used to predict an output indicator for a country, once the appropriate input indicator is known. This usually is done within a dataset for a single year, but the process can be extended to predict outputs a few years into the future, if reasonable forecasts can be made of the input indicators. We provide new forecasts about the further relationships of the US, the EU-2...

Shelton, Robert D

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Around the World byprivatejet  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AngkorWat, Cambodia Petra or Wadi Rum, Jordan engeti Plain or rongoro Crater, Tanzania The Great Barrier cities of the ancient world at Petra, or explore the lunar-like landscape of Wadi Rum. Cambodia india

Liu, Taosheng

406

Carbon Trading Protocols for Geologic Sequestration  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could become an instrumental part of a future carbon trading system in the US. If the US starts operating an emissions trading scheme (ETS) similar to that of the European Union's then limits on CO{sub 2} emissions will be conservative in the beginning stages. The government will most likely start by distributing most credits for free; these free credits are called allowances. The US may follow the model of the EU ETS, which during the first five-year phase distributed 95% of the credits for free, bringing that level down to 90% for the second five-year phase. As the number of free allowances declines, companies will be forced to purchase an increasing number of credits at government auction, or else obtain them from companies selling surplus credits. In addition to reducing the number of credits allocated for free, with each subsequent trading period the number of overall credits released into the market will decline in an effort to gradually reduce overall emissions. Companies may face financial difficulty as the value of credits continues to rise due to the reduction of the number of credits available in the market each trading period. Governments operating emissions trading systems face the challenge of achieving CO{sub 2} emissions targets without placing such a financial burden on their companies that the country's economy is markedly affected.

Hoversten, Shanna

2008-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

407

A Cosmology Forecast Toolkit -- CosmoLib  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The package CosmoLib is a combination of a cosmological Boltzmann code and a simulation toolkit to forecast the constraints on cosmological parameters from future observations. In this paper we describe the released linear-order part of the package. We discuss the stability and performance of the Boltzmann code. This is written in Newtonian gauge and including dark energy perturbations. In CosmoLib the integrator that computes the CMB angular power spectrum is optimized for a $\\ell$-by-$\\ell$ brute-force integration, which is useful for studying inflationary models predicting sharp features in the primordial power spectrum of metric fluctuations. The numerical code and its documentation are available at http://www.cita.utoronto.ca/~zqhuang/CosmoLib.

Zhiqi Huang

2012-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

408

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

409

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

410

Going Mobile: Emissions Trading Gets a Boost from Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credits  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Going Mobile: Emissions Trading Gets a Boost From Mobilehave tested various emissions trading policies to supplementAn Analysis of EPA's Emissions Trading Program, 6 YALE J. ON

Goldschein, Perry S.

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Distributing Pollution Rights in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Are Outcomes Independent of Allocation?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

policy- the RECLAIM emission trading policy." Environ.Incentives Market: a new emissions trading program for Lospolitical feasibility of emissions trading programs. See,

Fowlie, Meredith; Perloff, Jeffrey M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Strategic Behavior, Private Information, and Decentralization in the European Union Emissions Trading System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the European Union emissions trading scheme. Rev EnvironDecentralization in the EU emissions trading scheme andthe European Union Emissions Trading System David A. Malueg

Malueg, David A.; Yates, Andrew J.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Emissions Trading and Air Toxics Emissions: RECLAIM and Toxics Regulation in the South Coast Air Basin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fugitive emissions in an emissions trading program, as theexists between an emissions trading program that allows aircreation of other ROC emissions trading programs. JOURNAL OF

Cohen, Nancy J.

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Market power in emissions trading: strategically manipu-the European Unions emissions trading system? Ambio, 41 (pricing under carbon emissions trading: A dominant firm with

Limpaitoon, Tanachai

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

EU-California Environmental Agreements: The Role of Trade in Emissions Permits and Escape Clauses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the role of trade in emissions permits and escape clauses. (agreements. Trade in emissions permits has ambiguous and inAlthough trade in emissions permits reduces the aggregate

Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

International Trade of Wood Pellets (Brochure)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The production of wood pellets has increased dramatically in recent years due in large part to aggressive emissions policy in the European Union; the main markets that currently supply the European market are North America and Russia. However, current market circumstances and trade dynamics could change depending on the development of emerging markets, foreign exchange rates, and the evolution of carbon policies. This fact sheet outlines the existing and potential participants in the wood pellets market, along with historical data on production, trade, and prices.

Not Available

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

The small firm enters international trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

be & ditcd for ~ 6] information of benefit to the, smaller fir?& engaged i;& internationai trade. ~ The Small Business Adm inis Lrat ion ' s Fx~&&rt Marl' . t ', n n' for S. &ai 3 cr &'3 rms- provides a discussion of i oreigr I 3P] market analysis... for the small business firm and is useful in this field. However, this book does not cover the foreign cultux al environment, which may be the decisive factor in marketing, and provides no information con- cerning shipp. ', ng and finance. Many trade...

Steelquist, Laura McDowell

1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Documentation of the Hourly Time Series NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- 1 - Documentation of the Hourly Time Series from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial condition 1 Jan 1979, 0Z Record 1: f00: forecast at first time step of 3 mins Record 2: f01: forecast (either averaged over 0 to 1 hour, or instantaneous at 1 hour) Record 3: f02: forecast (either

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecast models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecast forecasting models, and the relative simplicity of the outcome of such forecasts (they require only three their forecast accuracy. Moreover, the various scoring rules used for validation in previous studies

Fenton, Norman

422

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

423

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval

Farrell, Brian F.

424

Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3 forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrations. On the basis of past

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

425

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA

Wu, Dekai

426

USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

427

Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

INFORMATION SYSTEM Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

Katz, Richard

429

A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead James W methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Electricity demand forecasting

McSharry, Patrick E.

430

Resource Adequacy Load Forecast A Report to the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

one hour peak demand and monthly energy assuming normal weather. The Council forecast includes loadsResource Adequacy Load Forecast A Report to the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Tomás of the assessment is the load forecast. The Council staff has recently developed a load forecast to be used

431

A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements Naoufel Cheikhrouhou a,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements Naoufel Cheikhrouhou a July 2011 Keywords: Collaborative forecasting Demand planning Judgement Time series Fuzzy logic a b s t r a c t Mathematical forecasting approaches can lead to reliable demand forecast in some

432

Demand forecast accuracy and performance of inventory policies under multi-level rolling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand forecast accuracy and performance of inventory policies under multi-level rolling schedule is to study the behaviour of lot-sizing rules in a multi- level context when forecast demand is subject Interchange to ameliorate demand forecast. Although the presence or absence of forecast errors matters more

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

433

Final report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1978 to June 30, 1980 of project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing improved methods and data for analysis of the future course of the world oil market. Any forecast of this market depends on analysis of the likely demand for oil imports by ...

M.I.T. World Oil Project.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior. Results from our work indicate that virtual worlds have the potential for serving as a proxy in allocating and populating behaviors that would be used within further agent-based modeling studies.

Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E. [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm [Gaikai, Inc., Aliso Viejo, CA

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The classical Heckscher?Ohlin?Mundell paradigm states that trade and capital mobility are substitutes in the sense that trade integration reduces the incentives for capital to flow to capital?scarce countries. In this paper ...

Antrs, Pol

436

Sourcing Flexibility, Spot Trading, and Procurement Contract Structure  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We analyze the structure and pricing of option contracts for an industrial good in the presence of spot trading. We combine the analysis of spot trading and buyers' disparate private valuations for different suppliers' ...

Pei, Pamela Pen-Erh

437

DOE GC Joins Customs Service Trade Data System to Strengthen...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Service Trade Data System to Strengthen Enforcement Effort DOE GC Joins Customs Service Trade Data System to Strengthen Enforcement Effort February 14, 2011 - 5:48pm Addthis The...

438

Three empirical essays on trade and development in India  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis is a collection of three empirical essays on economic development and trade in India. Chapter 1 uses the sharp trade liberalization in India in the early 1990s, spurred to a large extent by external factors, ...

Topalova, Petia

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Security Trade Control Guidelines for Academic Exchange Agreements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

globalization. Under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA), which was put into effect in April 2010 to obtain permission from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) if any of the technologies

Takada, Shoji

440

Trade in waste among developed countries : evidence and origins  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we examine the determinants of the international trade in waste between developed countries. Data from the 1980s suggest that while the trade in waste between developed and less developed countries has ...

Bernard, Andrew B.

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

How do rms organize trade? Evidence from Ghana Jens Krger  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at how rms organize their export trade. If selling directly, sunk costs of foreign market entry, by contrast, may prefer to export through trading companies, which involves lower sunk costs. Using a rm level

Krivobokova, Tatyana

442

The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prices. The reason: demand for biofuel increases, and ?rst-The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment GalThe Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment ? Gal

Hochman, Gal; Sexton, Steven; Zilberman, David D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

agricultural trade liberalizations: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

the politics of trade policy-making. However, this dissertation (more) Kim, In Song 2014-01-01 18 A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in...

444

agricultural trade liberalization: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

the politics of trade policy-making. However, this dissertation (more) Kim, In Song 2014-01-01 18 A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in...

445

International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

trade policy, and environmental policy in an attempt to help2 Trade policy and environmental policy 3 The ef?ciency ofInstitutute for Environmental Policy Solultions. S TAVINS ,

Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

Romo, Juan

447

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

448

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

449

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

452

Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

453

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

Levinson, David M.

454

An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

Kim, Kyungmin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

457

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

458

Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

460

Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

Adut, Davit

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

462

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

464

The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

Ham, Joy L

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

TRADE nontechnical training programs inventory. Volume I  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In a continuing effort to facilitate communications and resource exchange among the DOE contractors, the TRADE (Training Resources and Data Exchange) Committee has compiled this volume. This inventory is one of four inventories, which taken together, total almost 1400 courses and reflect the range and focus of in-house training programs being offered throughout the DOE GOCO system by approximately 50 contractors.

Not Available

1984-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Federal Trade Commission Necesita Crdito o Seguro?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comisin Federal de Comercio (Federal Trade Commission, FTC), la agencia nacional de proteccin del sus cuentas, es recolecta- da de su informe de crdito. A travs de programas estadsticos, los a tiempo y en forma. Algunas compaas de seguros tambin usan la informacin en los informes de crdito

469

Invitation NCCR Trade Regulation Brown Bag Series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Faculty of Law, where he taught and conducted research on Chinese law and international trade/international, more recently, as Director of the East Asian International Economic Law and Policy (EAIEL) Program Lecturer in Law and a Visiting Associate Professor of Law at Stanford Law School China's Recent

Sola, Rolf Haenni

470

Carbon Trading, Carbon Taxes and Social Discounting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Carbon Trading, Carbon Taxes and Social Discounting Elisa Belfiori belf0018@umn.edu University of Minnesota Abstract This paper considers the optimal design of policies to carbon emissions in an economy, such as price or quantity controls on the net emissions of carbon, are insufficient to achieve the social

Weiblen, George D

471

Electric trade in the United States 1992  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication, Electric Trade in the US 1992 (ELECTRA), is the fourth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Electric Data Systems Branch, Survey Management Division, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1992. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. Information on the physical transmission system are being included for the first time in this publication. Transmission data covering investor-owned electric utilities were shifted from the Financial Statistics of Selected Investor-Owned Electric Utilities to the ELECTRA publication. Some of the prominent features of this year`s report include information and data not published before on transmission lines for publicly owned utilities and transmission lines added during 1992 by investor-owned electric utilities.

Not Available

1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Technology Trade and NAFTA Walter G. Park  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Trade and NAFTA Walter G. Park Associate Professor Department of Economics American 2007 Abstract: This paper evaluates the extent to which technology diffusion among NAFTA countries. To the extent that these provisions influence the incentive to innovate and to transfer technologies

Lansky, Joshua

473

Secure Peer-to-Peer Trading for Multiplayer Games  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in multiplayer games. Finally, Bitcoin [10], a digital currency, is directly related to trading since they allow

GauthierDickey, Chris

474

International Trade and Sustainability: A survey Louis Dupuy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Keywords: Sustainability, International Trade, Environmental Accounting JEL Classification:F11,F18,Q01,Q56

Boyer, Edmond

475

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2... contract work Saturday Would you plan work for Saturday? Not much detail for Saturday and Sunday With more info could be easier to decide go, no go From deterministic to probabilistic ? Forecast presented as a single scenario ? One scenario presented...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

Awwad, Haitham Munir

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG? Yichen Du and Sergey Paltsev Report No. 271;1 International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG? Yichen Du* and Sergey Paltsev* Abstract The introduction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an option for international trade has created a market for natural gas where

Gabrieli, John

480

Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in the Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in the Model of Monopolistic Competition Jeffrey D. Sachs for International Development at Harvard University #12;CID Working Paper no. 14 Pattern of Trade and Economic, the general equilibrium may discontinuously jump across different patterns of trade and economic development

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "world trade forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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481

Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Leigh Raymond  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Programs?* Leigh Raymond be inferred. #12;Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Programs? Abstract Early emissions trading programs have obtained a very high rate of compliance, in part by using continuous

482

Emissions Trading: What Makes It Work? Julien Chevallier1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Emissions Trading: What Makes It Work? Julien Chevallier1 04 July 2009 Abstract: At the stage permits markets. Keywords: climate change policy; emissions trading; banking borrowing; initial allocation-4Jul2009 #12;2 Review of current climate policies The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

483

Water Waste Management and Mercury Trading: An Optimization Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with air pollutants has encouraged introduction of effluent trading concept for water pollution control, IL 60208, USA. E-mail: mehrotra@iems.nwu.edu Abstract Effluent trading to manage water pollution based ap- proach to assist decision making in pollutant trading which is beyond heuristics

Hazen, Gordon

484

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

485

better world Scientists and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

hazardous waste, control air pollution and promote environmental health. Because these fields are complex, environmental, mathematical and physical sciences. And Oregon State University is a great place to start building that experience. Here, you can study with world-renowned faculty, participate in groundbreaking

Escher, Christine

486

Forecasting the Vulnerability of Lakes to Aquatic Plant Invasions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

water, hull fouling), aquarium and ornamental trades, angling (discharging live bait, trailer boats.g., public boat launch, urban land use) and physical­chemical conditions (e.g., lake area, elevation crispus L. PTMCR. Key words: Aquarium trade, ecological niche models, exotic plants, nursery plants

Olden, Julian D.

487

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

488

Home Page > Business > Industrial > Global Trade Of Wood Chips Down 26% In 2009 As Pulpmills Reduce Production Worldwide, Reports Wood Resources International  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

from South Africa have declined 40%. With pulp production slowly increasing this fall and energy are Australia, South Africa, Vietnam and Uruguay. Australia, the world's largest exporter, has reduced shipmentsHome Page > Business > Industrial > Global Trade Of Wood Chips Down 26% In 2009 As Pulpmills Reduce

489

A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be used to provide a baseline prediction for certain space weather purposes, upon which other methods, incorporating additional information, can improve. A practical implementation of the method for whole-Sun prediction of Geostationary Observational Environment Satellite (GOES) events is described in detail, and is demonstrated for 4 November 2003, the day of the largest recorded GOES flare. A test of the method is described based on the historical record of GOES events (1975-2003), and a detailed comparison is made with US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions for 1987-2003. Although the NOAA forecasts incorporate a variety of other information, the present method out-performs the NOAA method in predicting mean numbers of event days, for both M-X and X events. Skill scores and other measures show that the present method is slightly less accurate at predicting M-X events than the NOAA method, but substantially more accurate at predicting X events, which are important contributors to space weather.

M. S. Wheatland

2005-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

490

Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

491

Taxes and Trading versus Intensity Standards: Second-Best Environmental Policies with Incomplete Regulation (Leakage) or Market Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2007) compares taxes and emissions trading in concentratedtaxes (equivalently emissions trading) may not be the best

Holland, Stephen P.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Trade-offs and synergies in a world moving towards a more  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, through a mix of op- tions. In the power sector, penetration of renewable and nuclear technologies up to 40%. Similarly, in Europe, CO2 emissions can be reduced with 21% - 54% in 2050. The contri- bution significant impacts on hydrogen pro- duction, storage and consumption and on the use of renewables (wind

493

The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

? Energy consumption ? GATT / WTO Membership ? GDP per? Energy consumption ? GATT / WTO Membership ? GDP per? Energy consumption ? GATT / WTO Membership ? GDP per

Kwon, Roy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

integration and interconnectivity among those spaces? (of integration and interconnectivity among those spaces.are increasing the interconnectivity of nation-states and

Kwon, Roy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

An Overview of World Tropical Hardwood Resources, Forest Products Trade and Environmental Issues  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and Venezuela (Butler 2001). South America accounts for 23 percent of global forests (Juslin and Hansen 2003

496

Inclusion of In-Situ Velocity Measurements intotheUCSD Time-Dependent Tomography toConstrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observationsa decade to reconstruct and forecast coronal mass ejectionset al. , 2009b). In this forecast, IPS results are compared

Jackson, B. V.; Hick, P. P.; Bisi, M. M.; Clover, J. M.; Buffington, A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

World Energy Projection System model documentation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Third World Ballistic missiles  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Ballistic missiles and other means of long-range destruction, traditionally limited to a handful of industrialized nations, are fast becoming a fixture in many regional conflicts. The Third World military buildup is perhaps even more worrisome than its First World prototype, for it is far more likely to find expression in war. There are several reasons why this should be so. In the past decade the number of countries in the missile club has more than doubled, to 18. Many of the new members have been at war or are embroiled in disputes. Unlike the major powers, these countries have not had time enough to perfect systems of command and control over their new strategic forces. They have had little time to learn to manage the complexities of military brinksmanship. Finally, because many regional conflicts overlap, an escalation in the arms race tends to convey itself from one area of tension to another. For many years the big industrialized countries ignored the proliferation of ballistic missiles and sought political advantage by arming their clients. In doing so, they presumed that the bipolar alignment of power would restrain regional conflicts. The preoccupation with East-West issues overshadowed problems in the Third World. Smaller industrialized powers sold missiles to generate revenues to support their own military industries. Meanwhile the developing countries eagerly acquired missiles for the same reasons that had motivated their predecessors: to deter attack, intimidate enemies, build a technological base and win prestige.

Nolan, J.E.; Wheelon, A.D.

1990-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Clean Tech Trade Alliance | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of Inspector GeneralDepartmentAUDITOhioOglesby,Sullivan, MissouriWebsterElectric Coop Corp JumpCleanCostTrade