National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for world trade forecast

  1. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  2. World Trade Organization | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    of the WTO's agreed rules for trade in goods, trade in services, and trade-related intellectual property rights monitoring and reviewing the trade policies of our members,...

  3. Africa gaining importance in world LPG trade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haun, R.R.; Otto, K.W.; Whitley, S.C.

    1997-05-12

    Major LPG projects planned or under way in Africa will increase the importance of that region`s presence in world LPG trade. Supplies will nearly double between 1995 and 2005, at which time they will remain steady for at least 10 years. At the same time that exports are leveling, however, increasing domestic demand for PG is likely to reduce export-market participation by Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, and Libya. The growth of Africa`s participation in world LPG supply is reflected in comparisons for the next 15--20 years. Total world supply of LPG in 1995 was about 165 million metric tons (tonnes), of which Africans share was 7.8 million tonnes. By 2000, world supply will grow to slightly more than 200 million tonnes, with Africa`s share expected to increase to 13.2 million tonnes (6.6%). And by 2005, world LPG supply will reach nearly 230 million tonnes; Africa`s overall supply volumes by that year will be nearly 16.2 million tonnes (7%). World LPG supply for export in 1995 was on order of 44 million tonnes with Africa supply about 4 million tonnes (9%). By 2005, world export volumes of LPG will reach nearly 70 million tonnes; Africa`s share will have grown by nearly 10 million tonnes (14.3%).

  4. Potential for world trade in LNG

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, P.J.

    1980-01-01

    Deliveries of LNG in 1978 in international trade amounted to about 24.77 billion cu m; of the actual deliveries, 9% were received by the U.S., 30% by West European countries, and 61% by Japan. For Spain, these deliveries represented 100% of its natural gas supply; for the U.S., they represented only 2% of natural gas demand. By the mid-1980's, the international LNG growth rate will slow to approx. 16%/yr, although projects totaling 130 million cu m/day may be completed. During the late 1980's, another 94.1 million cu m/day of LNG projects could be implemented. The over-all growth rate for the decade would then be approx. 11%/yr in LNG volumes. After 1990, several LNG export projects could be put into operation, possibly in the Middle East, West Africa, and the U.S.S.R. In 1980-2000, energy demand may increase by 2%/yr. Oil should retain its 65-70% of the primary energy supply; whether natural gas can increase its relative share depends on economic and political factors. Pipeline transport of gas costs twice as much as crude oil, and sea transport of LNG costs four to five times as much as crude oil. Wider use of the refrigeration available at LNG import terminals could affect project economics favorably. Tables.

  5. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  6. Elevated tritium levels at the World Trade Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Semkow, Thomas M.; Hafner, Ronald S.; Parekh, Pravin P.; Wozniak, Gordon J.; Haines, Douglas K.; Husain, Liaquat; Rabun, Robert L.; Williams, Philip G.

    2002-05-14

    Traces of tritiated water (HTO) were detected at [the]World Trade Center (WTC) ground zero after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. A method of ultralow-background liquid scintillation counting was used after distilling HTO from the samples. A water sample from the WTC sewer, collected on 9/13/01, contained 0.174 plus or minus 0.074 (2s) nCi/L of HTO. A split water sample, collected on 9/21/01 from the basement of WTC Building 6, contained 3.53 plus or minus 0.17 and 2.83 plus or minus 0.15 nCi/L, respectively. Several water and vegetation samples were analyzed from areas outside the ground zero, located in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and Kensico Reservoir. No HTO above the background was found in those samples. All these results are well below the levels of concern to human exposure.

  7. LNG Analysis Summary: A Different Way of Looking at the Future of World LNG Trade

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report examines alternative future scenarios for global LNG trade. The analysis calibrates initial liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand projections to external forecasts. Alternative LNG demand and supply scenarios are then generated to assess a range of potential outcomes. Scenarios include variations in Chinese, European and Japanese market conditions, changes in natural gas pipeline supplies and alternative LNG export conditions from the Middle East. Overall, the report foresees a LNG market where supply growth is likely to outpace demand and lead to downward pressure on LNG prices. The analysis projects North American LNG exports to the Atlantic Basin to fall in a range between 8.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) and 12.2 Bcfd in 2030.

  8. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  9. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  10. Tritium in the World Trade Center September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack: It's Possible Sources and Fate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parekh, P; Semkow, T; Husain, L; Haines, D; Woznial, G; Williams, P; Hafner, R; Rabun, R

    2002-05-03

    Traces of tritiated water (HTO) were determined at World Trade Center (WTC) ground zero after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. A method of ultralow-background liquid scintillation counting was used after distilling HTO from the samples. A water sample from the WTC sewer, collected on 9/13/01, contained 0.174{plus_minus}0.074 (2{sigma}) nCi/L of HTO. A split water sample, collected on 9/21/01 from the basement of WTC Building 6, contained 3.53{plus_minus}0.17 and 2.83{plus_minus}0.15 nCi/L, respectively. Several water and vegetation samples were analyzed from areas outside the ground zero, located in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and Kensico Reservoir. No HTO above the background was found in those samples. All these results are well below the levels of concern to human exposure. Several tritium radioluminescent (RL) devices were investigated as possible sources of the traces of tritium at ground zero. Tritium is used in self-luminescent emergency EXIT signs. No such signs were present inside the WTC buildings. However, it was determined that Boeing 767-222 aircraft operated by the United Airlines that hit WTC Tower 2 as well as Boeing 767-223ER operated by the American Airlines, that hit WTC Tower 1, had a combined 34.3 Ci of tritium at the time of impact. Other possible sources of tritium include dials and lights of fire and emergency equipment, sights and scopes in weaponry, as well as time devices equipped with tritium dials. It was determined that emergency equipment was not a likely source. However, WTC hosted several law-enforcement agencies such as ATF, CIA, US Secret Service and US Customs. The ATF office had two weapon vaults in WTC Building 6. Also 63 Police Officers, possibly carrying handguns with tritium sights, died in the attack. The weaponry containing tritium was therefore a likely and significant source of tritium. It is possible that some of the 2830 victims carried tritium watches, however this source appears to be less significant that the other two. The fate of tritium in the attack depended on its chemistry. Any tritium present in the vicinity of jet-fuel explosion or fire would convert to HTO. The molecular tritium is also known to quickly exchange with water adsorbed on surfaces at ambient temperatures. Therefore, the end product of reacted tritium was HTO. A part of it would disperse into the atmosphere and a part would remain on site. The dynamic aspect of HTO removal was investigated taking into a consideration water flow at ground zero. Most of ground zero is encircled by the Slurry Wall, 70 ft deep underground, called a Bathtub. Approximately three million gallons of water were hosed on site in the fire-fighting efforts, and 1 million gallons fell as rainwater, between 9/11 and 9/21 (the day of the reported measurement). The combined water percolated through the debris down to the bottom of the Bathtub dissolving and removing HTO with it. That water would meet and combine with the estimated 26 million gallons of water that leaked from the Hudson River as well as broken mains, during the same period of 10 days after the attack. The combined water was collecting in the PATH train tunnel and continuously being pumped out to prevent flooding. A %Box model of water flow was developed to describe the above scenario. Considering the uncertainty in the amount of tritium present from sources other than the aircraft, as well as the dynamic character of tritium removal from the site, it is feasible to provide only a qualitative picture of the fate and behavior of tritium at WTC with the limited experimental data available. If the time history of tritium concentration at WTC had been measured, this study could have been a tracer study of water flow at WTC possibly useful to civil engineering.

  11. Interim report of the interagency coal export task force: draft for public comment. [Trade by country 1960-1979; general forecasting to 1985, 1990 and 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1981-01-01

    The Interagency Coal Export Task Force was formed in the Spring of 1980 at the direction of the President, in support of the international efforts of the United States, encouraging the use of coal. Its purpose was to report on possible courses of action to increase United States steam coal exports in a manner consistent with other national policies, including our commitment to environmental protection. The Task Force assembled existing data, developed significant new information regarding the international coal market and undertook analyses of apparent problems underlying coal exports. The Task Force contributed to a public awareness of the fact that increased coal exports will serve both the domestic and international interests of the United States. Based upon extensive, independent field studies in Europe and the Far East, the Task Force concludes that there will be significant growth in world demand for steam coal. Such growth has already begun, has contributed to the almost seven-fold increase in United States overseas steam coal exports for 1990 over 1979, and is expected to continue beyond the end of this century. The growth in world steam coal trade projected in the report does not guarantee United States coal exporters a large or expanding share of the market. The United States' role depends on the buying strategies of the consuming countries, the policies and prices of competing exporters, and the actions taken by the United States to maintain reasonable prices, prompt delivery and dependable quality. Projections of United States steam coal exports, therefore, rest upon a number of highly uncertain factors which are discussed in some detail.

  12. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  14. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  15. Joint Trade Mission to China | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Joint Trade Mission to China Joint Trade Mission to China Trade Mission Begins Trade Mission Begins The joint trade mission began in Beijing, and will also make stops in Shanghai and Guangzhou. Read more Green Buildings Green Buildings How American Businesses are leading the way in green building technology in Shanghai and around the world. Read more Top 3 Things Top 3 Things Deputy Secretary Sherwood-Randall spoke at Microsoft's Beijing Campus. These were the top 3 things from her speech. Read

  16. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  18. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  1. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  2. Multilateral, regional and bilateral energy trade governance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leal-Arcas, Rafael; Grasso, Costantino; Rios, Juan Alemany )

    2014-12-01

    The current international energy trade governance system is fragmented and multi-layered. Streamlining it for greater legal cohesiveness and international political and economic cooperation would promote global energy security. The current article explores three levels of energy trade governance: multilateral, regional and bilateral. Most energy-rich countries are part of the multilateral trading system, which is institutionalized by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The article analyzes the multilateral energy trade governance system by focusing on the WTO and energy transportation issues. Regionally, the article focuses on five major regional agreements and their energy-related aspects and examines the various causes that explain the proliferation of regional trade agreements, their compatibility with WTO law, and then provides several examples of regional energy trade governance throughout the world. When it comes to bilateral energy trade governance, this article only addresses the European Union’s (EU) bilateral energy trade relations. The article explores ways in which gaps could be filled and overlaps eliminated whilst remaining true to the high-level normative framework, concentrating on those measures that would enhance EU energy security.

  3. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  4. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  5. Generation co-ordination and energy trading systems in an open market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eichler, R.

    1998-07-01

    The power industry in many parts of the world is currently undergoing dramatic changes: deregulation, privatization, competition and 3rd party access are the keywords. The major trends are summarized at the beginning of the paper to provide the basis for the evolving consequences for the power generation industry. In the restructured environment of the Open Market power generation companies frequently are organizationally separated from transmission, distribution, and supply and now have to sell their product directly to customers. This necessitates the introduction of energy trading support functions for both bilateral trading and power exchange trading. On the other hand, there is a close relationship between energy trading and the technical process of energy production. The paper discusses design principles for software systems supporting maximum economic benefits. First practical application experience is also presented. The energy trading process requires the break up of proprietary databases and proprietary data structures as this process has a major need to communicate with external partners who normally use different systems. This directly leads to 3rd party products for the database, standardized data structures and standardized communication protocols. The Open Market environment calls for new and modified planning functions: in some cases measured value information necessary for updating load forecasts cannot be directly achieved. This leads to the need for an estimator of the actual load situation, a completely new function. Power scheduling has to take care of the generation company's balance but it need not always be forced to 0. Regulating services from the grid companies can be used instead. This gives the scheduling functions additional freedom for determining more economic overall solutions considering both purchase and services and sales of energy.

  6. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  7. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  8. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  9. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  10. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  11. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  12. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  13. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  14. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  15. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  16. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  17. World record neutron beam at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  18. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  19. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  20. World nuclear outlook 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-12-01

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for three different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

  1. World nuclear outlook 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-09-29

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

  2. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  3. Emissions trading - time to get serious

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vitelli, A.

    2007-11-15

    The Kyoto Protocol's five year compliance period begins in 2008. Industrialized nations around the world have pledged to cut carbon emissions, but the job seems to get harder, not easier, as 2008 approaches. Can market mechanisms make the crucial difference? The article discloses recent initiatives and developments worldwide. It concludes that it is clear that the market is maintaining its central role in fighting climate change and that bringing emissions trading to developing countries and to the US can only reinforce that role.

  4. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  5. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  6. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  7. Minerals Yearbook: Minerals in the world economy. 1988 International review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kimbell, C.L.; Zajac, W.L.

    1988-01-01

    In overview, 1988 appeared to be the best year for the world's mineral industry since 1980, although the all-important petroleum component suffered severely from low prices. With this notable exception, the traditional statistical measures of mineral industry performance, namely production, trade, and consumption, reflected growth in most elements of the world mineral industry from crude material extraction through the gamut of downstream processing. Moreover, the growth was reasonably well distributed geographically, with many countries sharing in the substantial upturn in activity. The report discusses production, trade, consumption, investment, transportation, prices, and statistical summary of world production and trade of major mineral commodities.

  8. World Natural Gas Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1994-12-01

    RAMSGAS, the Research and Development Analysis Modeling System World Natural Gas Model, was developed to support planning of unconventional gaseoues fuels research and development. The model is a scenario analysis tool that can simulate the penetration of unconventional gas into world markets for oil and gas. Given a set of parameter values, the model estimates the natural gas supply and demand for the world for the period from 1980 to 2030. RAMSGAS is based onmore » a supply/demand framwork and also accounts for the non-renewable nature of gas resources. The model has three fundamental components: a demand module, a wellhead production cost module, and a supply/demand interface module. The demand for gas is a product of total demand for oil and gas in each of 9 demand regions and the gas share. Demand for oil and gas is forecast from the base year of 1980 through 2030 for each demand region, based on energy growth rates and price-induced conservation. For each of 11 conventional and 19 unconventional gas supply regions, wellhead production costs are calculated. To these are added transportation and distribution costs estimates associated with moving gas from the supply region to each of the demand regions and any economic rents. Based on a weighted average of these costs and the world price of oil, fuel shares for gas and oil are computed for each demand region. The gas demand is the gas fuel share multiplied by the total demand for oil plus gas. This demand is then met from the available supply regions in inverse proportion to the cost of gas from each region. The user has almost complete control over the cost estimates for each unconventional gas source in each year and thus can compare contributions from unconventional resources under different cost/price/demand scenarios.« less

  9. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  10. The impact of trade costs on rare earth exports : a stochastic frontier estimation approach.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sanyal, Prabuddha; Brady, Patrick Vane; Vugrin, Eric D.

    2013-09-01

    The study develops a novel stochastic frontier modeling approach to the gravity equation for rare earth element (REE) trade between China and its trading partners between 2001 and 2009. The novelty lies in differentiating betweenbehind the border' trade costs by China and theimplicit beyond the border costs' of China's trading partners. Results indicate that the significance level of the independent variables change dramatically over the time period. While geographical distance matters for trade flows in both periods, the effect of income on trade flows is significantly attenuated, possibly capturing the negative effects of financial crises in the developed world. Second, the total export losses due tobehind the border' trade costs almost tripled over the time period. Finally, looking atimplicit beyond the border' trade costs, results show China gaining in some markets, although it is likely that some countries are substituting away from Chinese REE exports.

  11. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  13. Asia-Pacific focus of coming LNG trade boom

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-11-16

    This paper reports that the Asia-Pacific region remains the centerpiece of a booming world trade in liquefied natural gas. Biggest growth in LNG demand is expected from some of the region's strongest economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, Key LNG exporters such as Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia are scrambling to implement projects to meet that expected demand growth. Uncertainties cloud the outlook for Far East LNG trade, Australia, for one, is more cautious in pressing expansion of its LNG export capacity as more competing LNG expansions spring up around the world, notably in the Middle East and Africa.

  14. Micro Power Trading Co | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Micro Power Trading Co Jump to: navigation, search Name: Micro Power Trading Co Place: Singapore Product: Silicon ingots manufacturer. References: Micro Power Trading Co1 This...

  15. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  16. Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) World Oil Model (WOM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-08-07

    The function of the World Oil Market Model (WOMM) is to calculate a world oil price. SEDS will set start and end dates for the forecast period, and a time increment (assumed to be 1 year in the initial version). The WOMM will then randomly select an Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) oil price case and calibrate itself to that case. As it steps through each year, the WOMM will generate a stochastic supply shock to OPEC output and accept a new estimate of U.S. petroleum demand from SEDS. The WOMM will then calculate a new oil market equilibrium for the current year. The world oil price at the new equilibrium will be sent back to SEDS. When the end year is reached, the process will begin again with the selection of a new AEO forecast. Iterations over forecasts will continue until SEDS has completed all its simulation runs.

  17. Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) World Oil Model (WOM)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-08-07

    The function of the World Oil Market Model (WOMM) is to calculate a world oil price. SEDS will set start and end dates for the forecast period, and a time increment (assumed to be 1 year in the initial version). The WOMM will then randomly select an Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) oil price case and calibrate itself to that case. As it steps through each year, the WOMM will generate a stochastic supply shock tomore » OPEC output and accept a new estimate of U.S. petroleum demand from SEDS. The WOMM will then calculate a new oil market equilibrium for the current year. The world oil price at the new equilibrium will be sent back to SEDS. When the end year is reached, the process will begin again with the selection of a new AEO forecast. Iterations over forecasts will continue until SEDS has completed all its simulation runs.« less

  18. National Geothermal Association Trade Mission to Central America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-10-01

    The United States (US) geothermal industry, the world`s most technically proficient, has been unable to achieve penetration into the markets of the developing nations. This report details the findings of an industry Trade Mission to Central America, tasked with determining the reasons for this shortfall and with developing a US industry geothermal export strategy designed to achieve immediate and long-term export benefits.

  19. International Trade of Biofuels (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-05-01

    In recent years, the production and trade of biofuels has increased to meet global demand for renewable fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel contribute much of this trade because they are the most established biofuels. Their growth has been aided through a variety of policies, especially in the European Union, Brazil, and the United States, but ethanol trade and production have faced more targeted policies and tariffs than biodiesel. This fact sheet contains a summary of the trade of biofuels among nations, including historical data on production, consumption, and trade.

  20. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  1. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  2. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  3. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  4. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  5. EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    GP) | Department of Energy -A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) Order authorizing Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) to export electric energy to Canada PDF icon EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) More Documents & Publications EA-319 Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP Listing of

  6. Energy Prices, Power, and Trade

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Prices, Power, and Trade for The Energy Council March 5, 2016 | Washington, D.C. by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Energy Markets Update 2 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade March 5, 2016 $/b Continued robust supply and increasingly weak economic demand continue to pressure crude prices downward Source: EIA, Bloomberg 3 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade March 5, 2016 $/MMbtu billion cubic feet Resilient production

  7. Career Map: Trade Worker | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Trade Worker Career Map: Trade Worker A trade worker inside a large wind component. Trade Worker Position Title Trade Worker Alternate Title(s) Iron Worker, Rigger, Rodbuster, Cement Mason, Crane Operator, Electrician Education & Training Level Bachelor's degree generally not expected. Some training preferred. Electricians require formal training. Education & Training Level Description Trade workers often learn informally on the job. Other positions may learn their trade through a formal

  8. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  9. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  11. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  13. Trading Emissions PLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trading Emissions PLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Trading Emissions PLC Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: EC2N 4AW Product: Trading Emissions PLC is an investment fund...

  14. C Trade Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trade Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: C Trade Ltd Place: Tuscon, Arizona Zip: 85718 3223 Sector: Carbon, Renewable Energy Product: C Trade is a carbon management company with...

  15. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  16. Eiko Trading Corporation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trading Corporation Jump to: navigation, search Name: Eiko Trading Corporation Place: Japan Sector: Solar Product: Eiko develops solar pv projects in Japan and is expected to...

  17. International Trade of Biofuels (Brochure), Energy Analysis,...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and trade of biofuels have increased to meet global demand for renewable fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel contribute much of this trade because they are the most established...

  18. Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and trade wind marine shallow cumuli This content will become publicly available on November 13, 2016 Title: Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine ...

  19. Solar Trade Corporation STC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trade Corporation STC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Solar Trade Corporation (STC) Place: Lowell, Massachusetts Zip: 01851-4519 Sector: Solar Product: US manufacturer of solar...

  20. Steinbeis Technology Transfer Centre for Emissions Trading |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Steinbeis Technology Transfer Centre for Emissions Trading Jump to: navigation, search Name: Steinbeis Technology Transfer Centre for Emissions Trading Place: Augsburg, Bavaria,...

  1. Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Presentation on Hydrogen ...

  2. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  3. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  4. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  5. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  6. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  7. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  8. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  9. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  10. The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McLean, B.J.; Rico, R.

    1995-12-31

    The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical {open_quotes}command and control{close_quotes} infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The {open_quotes}command and control{close_quotes} model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programs have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions).

  11. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  12. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  13. World's First Printed Car

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, Jay

    2015-06-03

    Local Motors partnered with ORNL to print the worlds first 3D-printed car (Strati) at the 2014 International Manufacturing Technology Show.

  14. WORLD EDITOR TRAINING GUIDE

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... World Editor Training Guide April 2013 ii . ... several components, this class focuses on using the World ... red, but they should be black until the cable connects. ...

  15. World NGL markets continue rapid expansion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Otto, K.; Gist, R.; Whitley, C.; Haun, R.

    1998-06-08

    The international LPG industry has expanded rapidly during the 1990s and undergone significant changes. LPG consumption has expanded at nearly twice the rate of world petroleum demand. In particular, LPG use in residential and commercial markets has more than doubled in many developing countries. Markets for LPG and other petroleum products have been opened in many countries, accelerating demand growth and creating investment opportunities in all downstream segments. This has led to an overall strengthening of global LPG pricing and the development of many new export gas-processing projects. The paper discusses world LPG demand in residential and commercial markets and in petrochemicals, world LPG supply, regional increases, international trade, the US situation in natural gas, NGL supply, and NGL demand.

  16. WCI - World Consensus Initiative

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World Consensus Initiative 2005 Workshop Recap WCI 2004 Website WCI Book Contributed Papers

  17. World Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel) The data on this page are no longer available.

  18. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  19. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  20. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  1. The emerging multi-polar world and China's grand game (Journal Article) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Journal Article: The emerging multi-polar world and China's grand game Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The emerging multi-polar world and China's grand game This talk outlines a scenario describing an emerging multipolar world that is aligned with geographical regions. The stability and security of this multipolar world is examined with respect to demographics, trade (economics), resource constraints, and development. In particular I focus on Asia which has two

  2. EA-365 Centre Land Trading Limited | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Centre Land Trading Limited EA-365 Centre Land Trading Limited Order Authorizing Centre Land Trading Limited to export electric energy to Canada PDF icon EA-365 Centre Land ...

  3. EA-278 Direct Commodities Trading Inc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Direct Commodities Trading Inc EA-278 Direct Commodities Trading Inc Order authorizing Direct Commodities Trading Inc to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon OE-278 Direct ...

  4. EA-191-C Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    C Sempra Energy Trading Corporation EA-191-C Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon ...

  5. EA-319 Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP EA-319 Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP Order authorizing Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP to export electric energy to Canada PDF ...

  6. EA-223-A CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -A CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company EA-223-A CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company Order authorizing CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company to export electric ...

  7. EA-223 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company EA-223 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company Order authorizing CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company to export electric ...

  8. EA-191-B Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    B Sempra Energy Trading Corporation EA-191-B Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon ...

  9. EA-191 Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Sempra Energy Trading Corporation EA-191 Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-191 ...

  10. EA-191-D Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    D Sempra Energy Trading Corporation EA-191-D Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon ...

  11. EA-191-A Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -A Sempra Energy Trading Corporation EA-191-A Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon ...

  12. Beijing EEDT Technology Trade Co Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    EEDT Technology Trade Co Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Beijing EEDT Technology & Trade Co Ltd Place: Beijing, China Sector: Carbon Product: Beijing EEDT Technology & Trade...

  13. SBIR and Global Trade Summit Presentation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SBIR and Global Trade Summit Presentation SBIR and Global Trade Summit Presentation Presentation from the July 26, 2012 trade summit in Uncasville, Connecticut, presented by the ...

  14. EA-176 Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-176 Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-176 Sempra Energy Trading Corporation ...

  15. EA-176-A Sempra Energy Trading Corporation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-176-A Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Order authorizing Sempra Energy Trading Corporation to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-176-A Sempra Energy Trading ...

  16. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  18. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  19. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  20. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  2. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  3. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  4. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  5. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  6. Green Hercules Trading Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hercules Trading Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Green Hercules Trading Ltd. Place: London, Greater London, United Kingdom Zip: EC2V 8BB Sector: Carbon Product: London-based...

  7. Biodiesel Energy Trading Limited | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Limited Jump to: navigation, search Name: Biodiesel Energy Trading Limited Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: W1J 8DY Product: London-based company focused on trading of biodiesel....

  8. Cinergy Capital & Trading, Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Cinergy Capital & Trading, Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: Cinergy Capital & Trading, Inc Place: Indiana Phone Number: (704) 382-3747 or (513) 287-2226 or (317) 838-1338...

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  11. Emissions trading: principles and practice. 2nd

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tietenberg, T.H.

    2006-02-15

    The author demonstrates how emissions trading became an attractive alternative to command-and-control policies that would have required the EPA to disallow the opening of new plants in the middle of the recession-burdened 1970s. His examination of the evolution of this system includes, among other applications, the largest multinational trading system ever conceived, the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EUETG), and the use of emissions trading in the Kyoto Protocol.

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. International Bioenergy Trade | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    International Bioenergy Trade International Bioenergy Trade Chris Wright, INL, presentation at the December 5, 2012, Biomass Program-hosted International Webinar on international bioenergy trade. PDF icon wright_2012_webinar.pdf More Documents & Publications 2015 Peer Review Presentations-Biochemical Conversion 2015 Peer Review Report 2013 Peer Review Presentations-Feedstock Supply and Logistics

  14. EA-211-A DTE Energy Trading, Inc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    A DTE Energy Trading, Inc EA-211-A DTE Energy Trading, Inc Order authorizing DTE Energy Trading, Inc to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-211-A DTE Energy Trading, Inc ...

  15. EA-211 DTE Energy Trading, Inc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DTE Energy Trading, Inc EA-211 DTE Energy Trading, Inc Order authorizing DTE Energy Trading, Inc to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-211 DTE Energy Trading, Inc More ...

  16. EA-211-B DTE Energy Trading, Inc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    B DTE Energy Trading, Inc EA-211-B DTE Energy Trading, Inc Order authorizing DTE Energy Trading, Inc to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-211-B DTE Energy Trading, Inc ...

  17. World Bio Markets

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Held in Amsterdam, Netherlands, the 10th anniversary World Bio Markets convened from March 1– 4, 2015.

  18. Draft framework for watershed-based trading

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-05-30

    Effluent trading is an innovative way for water quality agencies and community stakeholders to develop common-sense, cost-effective solutions for water quality problems in their watersheds. Trading can allow communities to grow and prosper while retaining their commitment to water quality. The bulk of this framework discusses effluent trading in watersheds. Remaining sections discuss transactions that, while not technically fulfilling the definition of `effluent` trade, do involve the exchange of valued water quality or other ecological improvements between partners responding to market initiatives. This document therefore includes activities such as trades within a facility (intra-plant trading) and wetland mitigation banking, effluent trading/watersheds/watershed management/water quality protection/water quality management.

  19. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  20. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  1. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  2. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  3. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  4. World Oil Transit Chokepoints

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2012-01-01

    Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes, some so narrow that restrictions are placed on the size of vessel that can navigate through them. They are a critical part of global energy security due to the high volume of oil traded through their narrow straits.

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  6. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  7. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  8. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  9. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  10. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  11. Clean Tech Trade Alliance | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    30351,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Clean Tech Trade Alliance Web Site1 This article is a stub. You can help...

  12. Carbon Trade Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Carbon Trade Ltd Place: Scotland, United Kingdom Zip: ML12 6HW Product: Scotland-based landfill gas project developer. References: Carbon...

  13. International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Development Jump to: navigation, search Name: International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development Address: International Environment House 2 Chemin de Balexert 7-9...

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  15. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  16. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  17. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  18. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  19. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  20. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  1. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  2. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  3. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  4. Meeting Summary, Credit Trading Work Group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kevin Bryan

    2000-12-07

    OAK-B135 Credit Trading Work Group Meeting Summary. The purpose of the meeting is to: (1) Provide an opportunity for NWCC Work Group Members, NWCC Members, and invited expert participants to hear an overview of the draft NWCC Credit Trading Report and to critically review and discuss the report's recommendations and principles. (2) Hear presentations from several perspectives of other experts on credit trading which provide: (a) a brief summary of credit trading activities they are involved in, and (b) critical responses to the NWCC draft report. (3) Identify how the report can be improved at the big picture level. Attempt to resolve issues or concerns if necessary. (4) Discuss the recommendations and credit trading principles in detail and attempt to reach consensus on these sections for presentation to the NWCC. (5) Discuss if any of the outreach and communication recommendations in the report should be conducted by the NWCC.

  5. EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) Order authorizing Fortis ...

  6. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  7. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  9. EA-367 EDF Trading North America, LLC | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    7 EDF Trading North America, LLC EA-367 EDF Trading North America, LLC Order authorizing EDF Trading North America, LLC to export electric energy to Canada PDF icon EA-367 EDF ...

  10. EA-208 Williams Energy Marketing and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Trading Company More Documents & Publications EA-184 Morgan Stanley Capital Group Inc. EA-166 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C EA-167 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P...

  11. EA-211-C DTE Energy Trading, Inc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    C DTE Energy Trading, Inc EA-211-C DTE Energy Trading, Inc Order authorizing DTE Energy Trading to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-211-C DTE.pdf More Documents & ...

  12. CIAM Puresky Carbon Trading Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    CIAM Puresky Carbon Trading Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: CIAM-Puresky Carbon Trading Ltd Place: Shenzhen, China Product: Shenzhen-based JV providing a trading platform for...

  13. EA-373 EDF Trading North America, LLC | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-373 EDF Trading North America, LLC Order authorizong EDF Trading North America, LLCto exprto electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-373 EDF Trading North America, LLC More ...

  14. World Bio Markets

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The World Bio Markets meeting will held from March 14-17, 2016 in Amsterdam, Netherlands. The meeting will gather experts in the bioenergy industry from all over the world. Bioenergy Technologies Office Demonstration and Market Transformation Program Manager Jim Spaeth will be giving a presentation entitled, “Policy updates and outlooks from key biofuel markets,” and will discuss technical, policy and investment developments, and success stories.

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  16. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  17. DOE Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information DOE Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information March 8,...

  18. EA-223 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Trading Company to export electric energy to Canada. EA-223 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company More Documents & Publications EA-232 OGE Energy Resources Inc EA-249...

  19. International Ethanol Trade Association IETHA | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trade Association IETHA Jump to: navigation, search Name: International Ethanol Trade Association (IETHA) Place: Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil Product: Association of 48 globally...

  20. UK Department of Trade and Industry Renewables Group | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trade and Industry Renewables Group Jump to: navigation, search Name: UK Department of Trade and Industry Renewables Group Place: London, United Kingdom Sector: Renewable Energy...

  1. PSEG Energy Resources and Trade | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Resources and Trade Jump to: navigation, search Name: PSEG Energy Resources and Trade Place: New Jersey Phone Number: 1-800-436-7734 Website: pseg.comfamilypower...

  2. Hunan Yongzhou Hengli Economy Trade Investment Co Ltd | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Yongzhou Hengli Economy Trade Investment Co Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Hunan Yongzhou Hengli Economy&Trade Investment Co.,Ltd Place: Yongzhou, Hunan Province, China Zip:...

  3. Yingjiang County Mingliang Trading Co Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mingliang Trading Co Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Yingjiang County Mingliang Trading Co., Ltd. Place: Dohong Dai-Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China Zip:...

  4. Sempra Energy Trading Corp (Washington) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sempra Energy Trading Corp (Washington) Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sempra Energy Trading Corp Place: Washington Phone Number: (877) SEMPRA1 Website: www.sempra.com Twitter:...

  5. High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production Builders - Building America Top Innovation High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production Builders - ...

  6. Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs ...

  7. Aid for Trade and Climate Change Financing Mechanisms | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Aid for Trade and Climate Change Financing Mechanisms Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Aid for Trade and Climate Change Financing Mechanisms: Best...

  8. Shanghai Fan Qie Trading Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Shanghai Fan Qie Trading Ltd Place: Shanghai Municipality, China Sector: Solar Product: Solar panel wholesaler and system integrator. References: Shanghai Fan Qie Trading Ltd1...

  9. Federal Energy Management Trade Show | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Federal Energy Management Trade Show Federal Energy Management Trade Show Addthis 1 of 4 Timothy Unruh, Program Manager for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy...

  10. DayStar Solar LLC formerly International Energy Trading LLC ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    LLC formerly International Energy Trading LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: DayStar Solar LLC (formerly International Energy Trading LLC) Place: Grass Valley, California Zip:...

  11. EA-208 Williams Energy Marketing and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Order authorizing Williams Energy Marketing and Trading Company to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-208 Williams Energy Marketing and Trading Company More Documents & ...

  12. EA-178-B Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Order authorizing Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-178-B Edison Mission Marketing & Trading, Inc More Documents & ...

  13. World trends: Improving fortunes restore upstream health

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    After a decade of recovery from the oil price collapse of 1986, the global upstream industry appears headed for a period of renewed strength and growth. Underpinning the prosperity is steady unrelenting growth in crude demand. Stronger global crude demand and heavy natural gas usage in the US are driving higher prices. Operators are reacting to better prices with larger drilling programs. Also boosting drilling levels are crude production expansion projects that many countries have underway in response to perceived future demand. Not surprisingly, World Oil`s outlook calls for global drilling to rise 4.5% to 60,273 wells, a second straight annual increase. Better US activity is helping, but so are stronger-than-expected numbers in Canada. Meanwhile, World Oil`s 51st annual survey of governments and operators indicates that global oil production rose 1.4% last year, to 62,774 million bpd. That was not enough, however, to keep up with demand. The paper discusses financial performance, business practices, other factors, and operating outlook. A table lists the 1996 forecasts, estimated wells drilled in 1995, and total wells and footage drilled in 1994 by country. A second table lists global crude and condensate production and wells actually producing in 1995 versus 1994.

  14. Heat Management Strategy Trade Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nick Soelberg; Steve Priebe; Dirk Gombert; Ted Bauer

    2009-09-01

    This Heat Management Trade Study was performed in 2008-2009 to expand on prior studies in continued efforts to analyze and evaluate options for cost-effectively managing SNF reprocessing wastes. The primary objective was to develop a simplified cost/benefit evaluation for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) reprocessing that combines the characteristics of the waste generated through reprocessing with the impacts of the waste on heating the repository. Under consideration were age of the SNF prior to reprocessing, plutonium and minor actinide (MA) separation from the spent fuel for recycle, fuel value of the recycled Pu and MA, age of the remaining spent fuel waste prior to emplacement in the repository, length of time that active ventilation is employed in the repository, and elemental concentration and heat limits for acceptable glass waste form durability. A secondary objective was to identify and qualitatively analyze remaining issues such as (a) impacts of aging SNF prior to reprocessing on the fuel value of the recovered fissile materials, and (b) impact of reprocessing on the dose risk as developed in the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). Results of this study can be used to evaluate different options for managing decay heat in waste streams from spent nuclear fuel.

  15. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  16. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  17. Trade My Food | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search for food they would like to trade for. Example: Alicia grows parsley, Bob is a fisherman. Alicia wants some fish. Bob wants some parsley. They find each other on...

  18. Electric trade in the United States 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-08-01

    Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1994, the wholesale trade market totaled 1.9 trillion kilowatthours, about 66% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1994 (ELECTRA), is the fifth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1994.

  19. Clean Air Trade Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    a company specialising in CER purchase as well as project development and investment in clean energy. References: Clean Air Trade Inc1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI...

  20. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  1. Feasibility study for integrated solar cell manufacture in Russia. Export trade information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    This report, conducted by Global Photovoltaic Specialists, Inc., was funded by the US Trade and Development Agency. The study concerns the techno-economic feasibility of fully integrated photovoltaic manufacture in Russia. In addition to the executive summary, the study consists of the following: (1) background of the project; (2) world market study; (3) technology prospects; (4) techno-economic feasibility-proprietary deleted; (5) financial-proprietary deleted; (6) conclusions and recommendations; (7) references; (8) bibliography.

  2. Electric trade in the United States, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-12-01

    Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1996, the wholesale trade market totaled 2.3 trillion kilowatthours, over 73% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1996 (ELECTRA), is the sixth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1996. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. 1 fig., 43 tabs.

  3. Asia, North America lead way in growth of NGL, LPG trade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Otto, K.; Gist, R.; Whitley, C.; Haun, R.

    1998-01-12

    Recent analyses of world NGL trade indicate that important changes in LPG supply and demand are under way in Asia and North America. LPG markets in the 1990s reflect a rapidly shifting balance between East-of-Suez and West-of-Suez markets. This shift has increased concern about availability of future LPG supplies for Asia. The paper discusses world developments, East versus West of Suez, end uses and supplies in Asia, Canadian ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, Mexican ethane, LPG, and natural gasoline, US ethane, propane, butanes, and iso-C{sub 4} and C{sub 5}.

  4. World Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Energy Name: World Energy Address: 2 Constitution Center Place: Boston, Massachusetts Zip: 02129 Region: Greater Boston Area Sector: Biofuels Product: Provider of biodiesel...

  5. Sunergy World | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sunergy World Place: Boise, Idaho Zip: 83707 Sector: Solar, Wind energy Product: Idaho-based wind and solar project developer. References:...

  6. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  7. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  8. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  9. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  10. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  11. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  12. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  13. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  14. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  15. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  16. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  17. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  18. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  20. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  1. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  2. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  5. Carbon Trading Protocols for Geologic Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoversten, Shanna

    2008-08-07

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could become an instrumental part of a future carbon trading system in the US. If the US starts operating an emissions trading scheme (ETS) similar to that of the European Union's then limits on CO{sub 2} emissions will be conservative in the beginning stages. The government will most likely start by distributing most credits for free; these free credits are called allowances. The US may follow the model of the EU ETS, which during the first five-year phase distributed 95% of the credits for free, bringing that level down to 90% for the second five-year phase. As the number of free allowances declines, companies will be forced to purchase an increasing number of credits at government auction, or else obtain them from companies selling surplus credits. In addition to reducing the number of credits allocated for free, with each subsequent trading period the number of overall credits released into the market will decline in an effort to gradually reduce overall emissions. Companies may face financial difficulty as the value of credits continues to rise due to the reduction of the number of credits available in the market each trading period. Governments operating emissions trading systems face the challenge of achieving CO{sub 2} emissions targets without placing such a financial burden on their companies that the country's economy is markedly affected.

  6. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  7. Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014 Antoine Halff 2014 EIA Energy Conference Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows Washington, DC July 14, 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014 Crude trade shifts further east  Asia imports increase by 2.6 mb/d to 22.1 mb, or 65% of the international crude market Crude Exports in 2019 and Growth in 2013-19 for Key Trade Routes 1 (million barrels per day) 0.2 0.3 (0) 2.0 (0.2) (-0.6) 4.1 (-0.6) 0.1 (-0.7) 3.1 1.2 (0.3) 1.0 (+0.1) -0.6 2.2 1.8 (+0.8) (-0.6) 1.1 (+0.3) Red

  8. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  9. Canister storage building trade study. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swenson, C.E.

    1995-05-01

    This study was performed to evaluate the impact of several technical issues related to the usage of the Canister Storage Building (CSB) to safely stage and store N-Reactor spent fuel currently located at K-Basin 100KW and 100KE. Each technical issue formed the basis for an individual trade study used to develop the ROM cost and schedule estimates. The study used concept 2D from the Fluor prepared ``Staging and Storage Facility (SSF) Feasibility Report`` as the basis for development of the individual trade studies.

  10. International Trade of Wood Pellets (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-05-01

    The production of wood pellets has increased dramatically in recent years due in large part to aggressive emissions policy in the European Union; the main markets that currently supply the European market are North America and Russia. However, current market circumstances and trade dynamics could change depending on the development of emerging markets, foreign exchange rates, and the evolution of carbon policies. This fact sheet outlines the existing and potential participants in the wood pellets market, along with historical data on production, trade, and prices.

  11. Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows For U.S. Energy Information Administration Conference July 14, 2014 | Washington, D.C. By Susan Grissom, U.S. Energy Information Administration In 2011, the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum products Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows, EIA Conference 2014 2 U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  12. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  13. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: World Electricity Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  14. Energy futures: Trading opportunities for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This volume contains an edited collection of views from practitioners in the rapidly growing area of energy futures and options trading, a major element of risk management. Four chapters are devoted to Trading Theories and Strategies. This section is aimed at the specialist in energy, rather than finance. The complexities of options trading are described in another chapter. The remaining sections of this book present a variety of topics in this field including Natural Gas Trading and Futures, Energy Futures and Options Trading, and Accounting, Taxation and Internal Control. The book is a good introduction and reference to the mechanics and institutions of energy futures contracts and trading.

  15. Political Economy of Brazilian foreign policy: nuclear energy, trade, and Itaipu

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soares de Lima, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    This dissertation advances an analytical framework intended to account for the international strategies of semi-peripheral countries: those industrialized Third World countries able to manufacture and export industrial goods. The empirical validation of the proposed framework was assessed through five case studies of Brazil's conduct in the following issue areas: nuclear energy, trade, and hydroelectric development of the Parana River Basin. A free-rider strategy was observed in the case of the nonproliferation regime. The decision to attain nuclear self sufficiency through the 1975 agreement with West Germany conforms to what was defined as unilateral behavior. Brazil's activism on behalf of Third World demands in North South negotiations as they impinge upon trade matters was accounted for in terms of the existence of private gains accruing from participation in that collective endeavor. Compliance with a regime's rules resulting from the use or threat of use of coercion was observed in the case of multilateral trade negotiations. The last case study examines a pattern of behavior defined as a hegemonic. In the development of a regime for the utilization of the Parana River Basin's hydroelectric potential, Brazil provided positive incentives to its junior partner (Paraguay) and negative inducements to the uncooperative partner (Argentina).

  16. WATER-TRAPPED WORLDS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menou, Kristen [Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, 550 West 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Although tidally locked habitable planets orbiting nearby M-dwarf stars are among the best astronomical targets to search for extrasolar life, they may also be deficient in volatiles and water. Climate models for this class of planets show atmospheric transport of water from the dayside to the nightside, where it is precipitated as snow and trapped as ice. Since ice only slowly flows back to the dayside upon accumulation, the resulting hydrological cycle can trap a large amount of water in the form of nightside ice. Using ice sheet dynamical and thermodynamical constraints, I illustrate how planets with less than about a quarter the Earth's oceans could trap most of their surface water on the nightside. This would leave their dayside, where habitable conditions are met, potentially dry. The amount and distribution of residual liquid water on the dayside depend on a variety of geophysical factors, including the efficiency of rock weathering at regulating atmospheric CO{sub 2} as dayside ocean basins dry up. Water-trapped worlds with dry daysides may offer similar advantages as land planets for habitability, by contrast with worlds where more abundant water freely flows around the globe.

  17. World Biofuels Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alfstad,T.

    2008-10-01

    This report forms part of a project entitled 'World Biofuels Study'. The objective is to study world biofuel markets and to examine the possible contribution that biofuel imports could make to help meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). The study was sponsored by the Biomass Program of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), U.S. Department of Energy. It is a collaborative effort among the Office of Policy and International Affairs (PI), Department of Energy and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The project consisted of three main components: (1) Assessment of the resource potential for biofuel feedstocks such as sugarcane, grains, soybean, palm oil and lignocellulosic crops and development of supply curves (ORNL). (2) Assessment of the cost and performance of biofuel production technologies (NREL). (3) Scenario-based analysis of world biofuel markets using the ETP global energy model with data developed in the first parts of the study (BNL). This report covers the modeling and analysis part of the project conducted by BNL in cooperation with PI. The Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) energy system model was used as the analytical tool for this study. ETP is a 15 region global model designed using the MARKAL framework. MARKAL-based models are partial equilibrium models that incorporate a description of the physical energy system and provide a bottom-up approach to study the entire energy system. ETP was updated for this study with biomass resource data and biofuel production technology cost and performance data developed by ORNL and NREL under Tasks 1 and 2 of this project. Many countries around the world are embarking on ambitious biofuel policies through renewable fuel standards and economic incentives. As a result, the global biofuel demand is expected to grow very rapidly over the next two decades, provided policymakers stay the course with their policy goals. This project relied on a scenario-based analysis to study global biofuel markets. Scenarios were designed to evaluate the impact of different policy proposals and market conditions. World biofuel supply for selected scenarios is shown in Figure 1. The reference case total biofuel production increases from 12 billion gallons of ethanol equivalent in 2005 to 54 billion gallons in 2020 and 83 billion gallons in 2030. The scenarios analyzed show volumes ranging from 46 to 64 billion gallons in 2020, and from about 72 to about 100 billion gallons in 2030. The highest production worldwide occurs in the scenario with high feedstock availability combined with high oil prices and more rapid improvements in cellulosic biofuel conversion technologies. The lowest global production is found in the scenario with low feedstock availability, low oil prices and slower technology progress.

  18. Electric trade in the United States 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-09-01

    This publication, Electric Trade in the US 1992 (ELECTRA), is the fourth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Electric Data Systems Branch, Survey Management Division, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1992. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. Information on the physical transmission system are being included for the first time in this publication. Transmission data covering investor-owned electric utilities were shifted from the Financial Statistics of Selected Investor-Owned Electric Utilities to the ELECTRA publication. Some of the prominent features of this year`s report include information and data not published before on transmission lines for publicly owned utilities and transmission lines added during 1992 by investor-owned electric utilities.

  19. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirsch, R.L.; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  20. Wind World | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wind World Place: Denmark Sector: Wind energy Product: WindWorld was a turbine manufacturer that was purchased by NEG Micon in 1998. NEG Micon was then purchased by Vestas in 2003....

  1. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  2. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  3. EA-250 PSEG Energy Resources & Trade LLC | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PDF icon EA-250 PSEG Energy Resources & Trade LLC More Documents & Publications Ea-168-A PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P EA-196-A Minnesota Power, Sales EA-220-A NRG Power ...

  4. SPR Awards Exchange Contract to Shell Trading | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Awards Exchange Contract to Shell Trading SPR Awards Exchange Contract to Shell Trading May 10, 2007 - 12:55pm Addthis Deliveries to Begin in August WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. ...

  5. EA-365-A Centre Lane Trading Limited | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -A Centre Lane Trading Limited EA-365-A Centre Lane Trading Limited Order authorizing CLT to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-365-A Centre Lane (CN).pdf More Documents ...

  6. Vis Nova Trading GmbH | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Nova Trading GmbH Jump to: navigation, search Name: Vis Nova Trading GmbH Place: Bremen, Germany Zip: 28217 Product: Germany-based producer and trader of wood pellets....

  7. Small Business Award to Sage Energy Trading Download | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Award to Sage Energy Trading Download Small Business Award to Sage Energy Trading Download View official release document by clicking the link below. PDF icon Small-Business-Award-...

  8. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  9. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  10. North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade prepared by North American Energy Working Group on December 2002. PDF icon North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade More Documents & Publications Regulatory Side-by-Side Governing Permitting of Cross-Border Electricity Transmission Facilities Between the United States and Canada Guide

  11. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  12. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  13. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  14. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  15. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  16. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  17. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  18. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  19. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  1. Assessment of allowance mechanism China's carbon trading pilots

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Ling; Shen, Bo; Qi, Shaozhou; Price, Lynn

    2015-08-28

    The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in design of a carbon trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each company covered under the scheme. By examining China's allowance mechanism from two aspects including allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China's carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading System and California Cap-and-Trade Program, and through the comparison identify issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends course of actions to strengthen China's existing pilots and build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China.

  2. Assessment of Allowance Mechanismin China's Carbon Trading Pilots

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Ling; Shen, Bo; Qi, Shaozhou; Price, Lynn

    2015-08-01

    The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in design of a carbon trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each company covered under the scheme. By examining China's allowance mechanism from two aspects including allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China's carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading System and California Cap-and-Trade Program, and through the comparison identify issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends course of actions to strengthen China's existing pilots and build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China.

  3. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Other World Computing | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Computing Jump to: navigation, search Name Other World Computing Facility Other World Computing Sector Wind energy Facility Type Community Wind Facility Status In Service...

  6. The world's first nuclear detonation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The world's first nuclear detonation The world's first nuclear detonation Trinity was the culmination of a fantastic effort of groundbreaking science and engineering by hundreds of men and women at Los Alamos National Laboratory (and other Manhattan Project sites). It took them less than two years to change the world. July 10, 2015 x x "Highly accurate 3D computing is a Holy Grail of the Stockpile Stewardship Program's supercomputing efforts. As the weapons age, 3D features tend to be

  7. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

    2015-03-20

    The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

  8. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

    2015-03-20

    The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.

  9. Demand for petrochem feedstock to buoy world LPG industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-05-18

    This paper reports that use of liquefied petroleum gas as petrochemical feedstock will increase worldwide, providing major growth opportunities for LPG producers. World exports of liquefied petroleum gas will increase more slowly than production as producers choose to use LPG locally as chemical feedstock and export in value added forms such as polyethylene. So predicts Poten and Partners Inc., New York. Poten forecasts LPG production in exporting countries will jump to 95 million tons in 2010 from 45 million tons in 1990. However, local and regional demand will climb to 60 million tons/year from 23 million tons/year during the same period. So supplies available for export will rise to 35 million tons in 2010 from 22 million tons in 1990.

  10. Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; Ahlgrimm, Maike

    2015-11-06

    We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

  11. Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; Ahlgrimm, Maike

    2015-11-06

    We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratification at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.

  12. Los Alamos supercomputer remains fastest in world

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    world Los Alamos supercomputer remains fastest in world The latest list of the TOP500 computers in the world continued to place the Roadrunner supercomputer as fastest in the world...

  13. Solar World USA not SolarWorld AG | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World USA not SolarWorld AG Jump to: navigation, search Name: Solar World USA (not SolarWorld AG) Place: Colorado Springs, Colorado Zip: 80907 Sector: Solar Product: Solar World...

  14. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  16. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  17. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  18. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  19. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  20. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  1. IEA World Energy Outlook | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Agency's flagship publication and leading source of analysis of global energy trends - presents updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and...

  2. Energy in Europe and Central Asia: A sector strategy for the World Bank Group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-12-31

    Many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region have had an excess production capacity, lower quality supply, decreasing demand, and inefficient consumption in the energy sector since the late 1980s. This report outlines the four main objectives that form the World Bank Group`s strategy for reform: assisting governments to protect the public interest, supporting economic transition, facilitating private investments, and promoting regional initiatives to increase energy trade.

  3. Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Grant

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Program (TAACCCT) Energy and Manufacturing Awards and Topics List | Department of Energy Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Grant Program (TAACCCT) Energy and Manufacturing Awards and Topics List Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Grant Program (TAACCCT) Energy and Manufacturing Awards and Topics List View a list of all current Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training (TAACCCT) grant program awards

  4. Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Efficiency Programs | Department of Energy Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs Better Buildings Residential Workforce/ Business Partners Peer Exchange Call Series: Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs, Call Slides and Discussion Summary, June 12, 2014. PDF icon Call Slides and Discussion Summary

  5. Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    cumuli (Journal Article) | DOE PAGES DOE PAGES Search Results Accepted Manuscript: Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow cumuli This content will become publicly available on November 13, 2016 Title: Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow cumuli In this study, marine nonprecipitating cumulus topped boundary layers (CTBLs) observed in a tropical and in a trade wind region are contrasted based on their cloud

  6. Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    cumuli (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow cumuli Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly available on November 13, 2016 Title: Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow cumuli In this study, marine nonprecipitating cumulus topped boundary layers (CTBLs) observed in a tropical and in a trade wind region are contrasted based on their cloud macrophysical,

  7. International Electricity Trade - Open Access | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    International Electricity Trade - Open Access International Electricity Trade - Open Access DOE has consistently expressed its policy that international electricity trade should be subject to the same principles of comparable open access and non-discrimination that apply to transmission in interstate commerce. DOE has stated this policy in export authorizations granted to entities requesting authority to export over international transmission facilities. In those authorizations, DOE indicated it

  8. Trading permanent and temporary carbon emissions credits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marland, Gregg; Marland, Eric

    2009-08-01

    In this issue of Climatic Change, Van Kooten (2009) addresses an issue that has bedeviled negotiators since the drafting stage of the Kyoto Protocol. If we accept that increasing withdrawals of carbon dioxide from the atmpshere has the same net impact on the climate system as reducing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, how do we design a system that allows trading of one for the other? As van Kooten expresses the challenge: 'The problem is that emissions reduction and carbon sequestration, while opposite sides of the same coin in some sense, are not directly comparable, thereby inhibiting their trade in carbon markets.' He explains: 'The difficulty centers on the length of time that mitigation strategies without CO{sub 2} from entering the atmosphere - the duration problem.' While reducing emissions of CO{sub 2} represents an essentially permanent benefit for the atmosphere, capturing CO{sub 2} that has been produced (whether capture is from the atmosphere or directly from, for example, the exhaust from power plants) there is the challenge of storing the carbon adn the risk that it will yet escape to the atmosphere. Permanent benefit to the atmosphere is often not assured for carbon sequestration activities. This is especially true if the carbon is taken up and stored in the biosphere - e.g. in forest trees or agricultural soils.

  9. The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council and Los...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    sign labor agreements September 21, 2012 Unions, LANL sign labor agreements The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council and Los Alamos National Security LLC, have...

  10. Differences Between Tropical and Trade-Wind Shallow Cumuli

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Differences Between Tropical and Trade-Wind Shallow Cumuli For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http:www.arm.govsciencehighlights Research...

  11. Small Business Award to Sage Energy Trading | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Award to Sage Energy Trading Small Business Award to Sage Energy Trading December 17, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Department of Energy (DOE) today announced the award of a Firm-Fixed Unit Rate Task Order to Sage Energy Trading of Jenks, OK. Sage Energy Trading is a Woman Owned Small Business. The Task Order will have a maximum value of $3.5 million over 2 years. Work performed under this Task Order will be performed at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Piketon, OH. The contractor will be

  12. The potential for effluent trading in the energy industries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veil, J. A.; Environmental Assessment

    1998-01-01

    In January 1996, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a policy statement endorsing wastewater effluent trading in watersheds, hoping to promote additional interest in the subject. The policy describes five types of effluent trades: point source/point source, point source/nonpoint source, pretreatment, intraplant and nonpoint source/nonpoint source. This paper evaluates the feasibility of implementing these types of effluent trading for facilities in the oil and gas, electric power and coal industries. This paper finds that the potential for effluent trading in these industries is limited because trades would generally need to involve toxic pollutants, which can only be traded under a narrow range of circumstances. However, good potential exists for other types of water-related trades that do not directly involve effluents (e.g. wetlands mitigation banking and voluntary environmental projects). The potential for effluent trading in the energy industries and in other sectors would be enhanced if Congress amended the Clean Water Act (CWA) to formally authorize such trading.

  13. Department of Community Trade and Econ Development Energy Policy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Olympia, Washington State Product: Energy Policy division of Department of Community, Trade and Economic Development for the State of Washington Coordinates: 47.039225,...

  14. Modeling the Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel Policies AgencyCompany Organization: International Food Policy Research Institute Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Topics:...

  15. The feasibility of effluent trading in the energy industries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veil, J.A.

    1997-05-01

    In January 1996, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a policy statement endorsing effluent trading in watersheds, hoping to spur additional interest in the subject. The policy describes five types of effluent trades - point source/point source, point source/nonpoint source, pretreatment, intraplant, and nonpoint source/nonpoint source. This report evaluates the feasibility of effluent trading for facilities in the oil and gas industry (exploration and production, refining, and distribution and marketing segments), electric power industry, and the coal industry (mines and preparation plants). Nonpoint source/nonpoint source trades are not considered since the energy industry facilities evaluated here are all point sources. EPA has administered emission trading programs in its air quality program for many years. Programs for offsets, bubbles, banking, and netting are supported by federal regulations, and the 1990 Clean Air Act (CAA) amendments provide a statutory basis for trading programs to control ozone and acid rain. Different programs have had varying degrees of success, but few have come close to meeting their expectations. Few trading programs have been established under the Clean Water Act (CWA). One intraplant trading program was established by EPA in its effluent limitation guidelines (ELGs) for the iron and steel industry. The other existing effluent trading programs were established by state or local governments and have had minimal success.

  16. EA-359-A Castleton Commodities Merchant Trading L.P.

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Order authorizing Castleton Commodities Merchant Trading to export electric energy to Canada.  Name Change from Louis Dreyfus Energy Services L.P.

  17. Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    landed in China to lead a presidential trade mission focused on connecting U.S. businesses with opportunities in the green infrastructure and energy efficiency industries. ...

  18. Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) Model | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    standard model. In addition, GTAP-E incorporates carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and provides for a mechanism to trade these emissions internationally. When...

  19. Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Career Training Grant Program (TAACCCT) Energy and Manufacturing Awards and Topics List Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Grant Program ...

  20. World's Most Efficient Solar Cell

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Construction | Department of Energy World's Largest Post-Combustion Carbon Capture Project Begins Construction World's Largest Post-Combustion Carbon Capture Project Begins Construction July 15, 2014 - 9:55am Addthis News Media Contact 202-586-4940 Department of Energy Supported Project Will Capture 1.4 Million Tons of CO2 Annually Washington, D.C. - Today, the Department of Energy - in partnership with NRG Energy Inc. and JX Nippon - announced that construction has begun on the first

  1. EA-278-B Direct Commodities Trading Inc - Recission | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -B Direct Commodities Trading Inc - Recission EA-278-B Direct Commodities Trading Inc - Recission Order rescinding the authorization of Direct Commodities Trading Inc to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon OE-278-B Direct Commodities Trading Inc More Documents & Publications EA-278 Direct Commodities Trading Inc

  2. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  3. Research Study - Global Enterprise VoIP Equipment Market Forecasts...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  4. Global GPS Phones Market Size, Segmentation, Demand Forecast...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  5. Validation and Analysis of HRRR Insolation Forecasts using Surfrad...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Proceedings of the World Renewable Energy Forum, 13-17 May 2012, Denver, Colorado (CD-ROM) Publisher: Boulder, CO: American ...

  6. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  7. Conceptualising and managing trade-offs in sustainability assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Pope, Jenny

    2013-01-15

    One of the defining characteristics of sustainability assessment as a form of impact assessment is that it provides a forum for the explicit consideration of the trade-offs that are inherent in complex decision-making processes. Few sustainability assessments have achieved this goal though, and none has considered trade-offs in a holistic fashion throughout the process. Recent contributions such as the Gibson trade-off rules have significantly progressed thinking in this area by suggesting appropriate acceptability criteria for evaluating substantive trade-offs arising from proposed development, as well as process rules for how evaluations of acceptability should occur. However, there has been negligible uptake of these rules in practice. Overall, we argue that there is inadequate consideration of trade-offs, both process and substantive, throughout the sustainability assessment process, and insufficient considerations of how process decisions and compromises influence substantive outcomes. This paper presents a framework for understanding and managing both process and substantive trade-offs within each step of a typical sustainability assessment process. The framework draws together previously published literature and offers case studies that illustrate aspects of the practical application of the framework. The framing and design of sustainability assessment are vitally important, as process compromises or trade-offs can have substantive consequences in terms of sustainability outcomes delivered, with the choice of alternatives considered being a particularly significant determinant of substantive outcomes. The demarcation of acceptable from unacceptable impacts is a key aspect of managing trade-offs. Offsets can be considered as a form of trade-off within a category of sustainability that are utilised to enhance preferred alternatives once conditions of impact acceptability have been met. In this way they may enable net gains to be delivered; another imperative for progress to sustainability. Understanding the nature and implications of trade-offs within sustainability assessment is essential to improving practice. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A framework for understanding trade-offs in sustainability assessment is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Trade-offs should be considered as early as possible in any sustainability assessment process. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Demarcation of acceptable from unacceptable impacts is needed for effective trade-off management. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Offsets in place, time or kind can ensure and attain a net benefit outcome overall. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Gibson's trade-off rules provide useful acceptability criteria and process guidance.

  8. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  9. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  10. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  11. PV World Co Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Co Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: PV World Co Ltd Place: Singapore Product: Singapore-based PV module manufacturer. References: PV World Co Ltd1 This article is a...

  12. World`s LPG supply picture will change by 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    True, W.R.

    1995-11-06

    Middle East LPG producers will continue to dominate world export markets in 1996. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Middle East will produce nearly 26 million metric tons of LPG in million metric tons of LPG in 1996, more than 54% of the world`s almost 48 million metric tons of export LPG. In 2000, however, with world exports of LPG expanding to 58.9 million metric tons, Middle East suppliers; share will have remained flat, making up 31.7 million metric tons, or 53.9%. Saudi Arabia`s contribution will exceed 15 million metric tons, reflecting essentially no growth since 1995. These and other patterns, from data compiled by Purvin and Gertz, Dallas, and published earlier this year, show other suppliers of LPG, especially African (Algeria/Nigeria), North Sea, and Latin American (Venezuela/Argentina), picking up larger shares in the last 5 years of this decade. This scenario assumes completion of several major supply projects that are either panned, under construction, or nearing start up in most of these areas. The paper discusses the global picture, the supply situation in the Middle East, Africa, the North Sea, and South America.

  13. EA-163-A Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -A Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C EA-163-A Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C Order authorizing Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C to export electric energy ...

  14. EA-163 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C EA-163 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C Order authorizing Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C to export e;ectric energy to ...

  15. Fact #593: October 19, 2009 Petroleum Accounts for Nearly Half of the Total Trade Deficit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As recently as 2002, the petroleum trade balance accounted for less than 20% of the total U.S. goods trade deficit. In 2008, however, petroleum accounted for 45% of the trade deficit. However, as...

  16. EA-373-A EDF Trading North America, LLC | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-373-A EDF Trading North America, LLC Order from EDF Trading North America, LLC to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-373-A EDF Trading N.A (MX).pdf More Documents & ...

  17. Save the World Air | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the World Air Jump to: navigation, search Name: Save the World Air Place: Santa Barbara, California Zip: 93101 Product: California-based, device manufacturer for better fuel...

  18. World Health Organization (WHO) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Health Organization (WHO) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: World Health Organization (WHO) Name: World Health Organization (WHO) Address: 20, avenue Appia 1211 Geneva, Switzerland...

  19. SolarWorld AG | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    SolarWorld AG Jump to: navigation, search Name: SolarWorld AG Place: Bonn, Germany Zip: 53113 Product: Vertically integrated PV manufacturer, with factories in Freiberg, Germany...

  20. Sustainable World Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Capital Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sustainable World Capital Place: Atlanta, Georgia Zip: 30326 Product: Atlanta-based firm that connects companies with institutional...

  1. Renewed World Energies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Renewed World Energies Jump to: navigation, search Name: Renewed World Energies Place: Georgetown, South Carolina Zip: 29440 Product: South Carolina-based closed loop...

  2. World Wind Energy Association | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Association Jump to: navigation, search Logo: World Wind Energy Association Name: World Wind Energy Association Address: Charles-de-Gaulle-Str. 5 Place: Bonn, Germany Phone Number:...

  3. 3D World Building System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2014-02-26

    This video provides an overview of the Sandia National Laboratories developed 3-D World Model Building capability that provides users with an immersive, texture rich 3-D model of their environment in minutes using a laptop and color and depth camera.

  4. World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Held this year in Montreal, Quebec, the BIO World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will bring together business leaders, investors, and policy makers in biofuels, biobased products, and renewable chemicals. BETO Demonstration and Market Transformation Program Manager Jim Spaeth and Support Specialist Natalie Roberts will be in attendance.

  5. The world`s first commercial iron carbide plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prichard, L.C.; Schad, D.

    1995-12-01

    The paper traces the development of Nucor`s investigation of clean iron unit processes, namely, direct reduction, and the decision to build and operate the world`s first commercial iron carbide plant. They first investigated coal based processes since the US has abundant coal reserves, but found a variety of reasons for dropping the coal-based processes from further consideration. A natural gas based process was selected, but the failure to find economically priced gas supplies stopped the development of a US based venture. It was later found that Trinidad had economically priced and abundant supplies of natural gas, and the system of government, the use of English language, and geographic location were also ideal. The cost estimates required modification of the design, but the plant was begun in April, 1993. Start-up problems with the plant are also discussed. Production should commence shortly.

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  7. World`s developing regions provide spark for pipeline construction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koen, A.D.; True, W.R.

    1996-02-05

    This paper reviews the proposed construction of oil and gas pipelines which are underway or proposed to be started in 1996. It breaks down the projects by region of the world, type of product to be carried, and diameter of pipeline. It also provides mileage for each category of pipeline. Major projects in each region are more thoroughly discussed giving details on construction expenditures, construction problems, and political issues.

  8. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  9. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  10. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  11. WorldScan | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    for the analysis of long-term issues in international economics, such as climate change, economic integration and trade. LEDSGP green logo.png This tool is included in the...

  12. Market Transformation in Connecticut: Integrating Home Performance Into Existing Trades

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Market Transformation in Connecticut: Integrating Home Performance Into Existing Trades, Evolving to Whole Home Success, Session 2: Sustainable Business Models presentation. Provides an overview of Connecticut's various home energy programs, the Connecticut Energy Efficiency Fund, and contractor involvement.

  13. TradeWind Energy LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    states. It develops large-scale wind energy projects. Enel North America is a strategic partner for TradeWind and has taken an equity stake in the company. References:...

  14. Emissions trading comes of age as a strategic tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pospisil, R.

    1996-03-01

    Trading of emissions credits has quickly evolved from a curiosity to a viable compliance strategy for electric utilities and power-generating industrial firms. A sure sign that emissions trading has matured is the entry of power marketers onto the scene; in bundling pollution allowances with their electricity offerings, they are making their product more attractive - and stealing a page from the coal companies` strategy book to boot. Although most current activity involves credits for sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}) trading is under way in certain areas as well, although NO{sub x} markets are local and thus slower to develop. However, utilities see economic development potential in this area; some are providing NO{sub x} credits to their industrial customers to help them comply with environmental regulations - and to retain their loyalty when deregulation affords them a choice of electricity suppliers. This paper briefly discusses the issues related to emissions trading.

  15. Allowance trading made easy: The cash-forward settlement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartels, C.W.

    1993-11-01

    Centralized trading for cash-forward settlement adopts the most useful aspects of traditional commodity trading of spot cash and futures contracts, but eliminates those aspect which are most problematic for the regulated utility industry. Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 created a system of tradeable pollution rights which promises to achieve U.S. acid rain reduction goals at a savings of billions of dollars compared to traditional means of environmental regulation. The ultimate success of this allowance trading program depends in large part on the utility industry's capacity to integrate a new type of transaction into planning, decision-making, and cost recovery mechanism. The breadth and novelty of this challenge, along with the conservative nature of utility planners, executives, and regulators, may be one reason exploitation of allowance trading has been slow to develop.

  16. Solar Energy Trading GmbH SET | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GmbH SET Jump to: navigation, search Name: Solar Energy Trading GmbH (SET) Place: Mnster, Germany Zip: 48157 Sector: Solar Product: Germany-based solar project developer and...

  17. Fact #674: May 9, 2011 Petroleum Trade Balance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The trade balance (exports minus imports) for petroleum has been negative for more than a quarter of a century, meaning that the U.S. imports more petroleum than it exports. The largest petroleum...

  18. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  19. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  20. Class Deviation- FAR 24.402(b) Trade Agreements

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Attached for you information and use is a Class Deviation executed by the Senior Procurement Executives of NNSA and DOE addressing the Trade Agreements dollar thresholds at FAR 25.402(b). Civilian Agency Acquisition Letter 2012-01 was issued to allow agencies to execute class deviations to authorize use of the updated Trade Agreements dollar thresholds pending the formal amendment of the FAR.

  1. Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow cumuli

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghate, Virendra P.; Miller, Mark A.; Zhu, Ping

    2015-11-13

    In this study, marine nonprecipitating cumulus topped boundary layers (CTBLs) observed in a tropical and in a trade wind region are contrasted based on their cloud macrophysical, dynamical, and radiative structures. Data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observational site previously operating at Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, and data collected during the deployment of ARM Mobile Facility at the island of Graciosa, in the Azores, were used in this study. The tropical marine CTBLs were deeper, had higher surface fluxes and boundary layer radiative cooling, but lower wind speeds compared to their trade wind counterparts. The radiative velocity scale was 50%-70% of the surface convective velocity scale at both locations, highlighting the prominent role played by radiation in maintaining turbulence in marine CTBLs. Despite greater thicknesses, the chord lengths of tropical cumuli were on average lower than those of trade wind cumuli, and as a result of lower cloud cover, the hourly averaged (cloudy and clear) liquid water paths of tropical cumuli were lower than the trade wind cumuli. At both locations ~70% of the cloudy profiles were updrafts, while the average amount of updrafts near cloud base stronger than 1 m s–1 was ~22% in tropical cumuli and ~12% in the trade wind cumuli. The mean in-cloud radar reflectivity within updrafts and mean updraft velocity was higher in tropical cumuli than the trade wind cumuli. Despite stronger vertical velocities and a higher number of strong updrafts, due to lower cloud fraction, the updraft mass flux was lower in the tropical cumuli compared to the trade wind cumuli. The observations suggest that the tropical and trade wind marine cumulus clouds differ significantly in their macrophysical and dynamical structures

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  3. Allowance trading: Correcting the past and looking to the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shah, A.Y.; Canter, L.W.

    1995-09-01

    Allowance trading is basic to the Title IV acid rain provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) in the United States; the provisions seek to achieve a 10-million-ton reduction in annual sulfur dioxide emissions from the electric power utility industry. Allowance trading, a market-based approach, is conceptually similar to the emissions trading policy of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). An allowance is defined as the authorization to emit, during or after a specified calendar year, one ton of sulfur dioxide. This paper provides an overview of the allowance trading program by summarizing some important features, particularly as they are responsive to limitations and concern as related to the precursor emissions trading program in the early to mid-1980s. Such features include a simple definition of baseline emission levels, encouragements for nationwide trading, disincentives for accumulation of excess allowance,s opportunities for leasing other short-term allowance transfer arrangements, enforcement provisions, and benefits of bonus allowances and early emission reductions. Adherence to implementation protocols for the acid rain provisions of Title IV of the CAAA will provide a good opportunity to evaluate this market-based approach for environmental quality management.

  4. CIA-The World Factbook | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Dataset Website: www.cia.govlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookindex.html Cost: Free CIA-The World Factbook Screenshot References: CIA-The World Factbook1 "The World...

  5. Implications of lifting the ban on the export of Alaskan crude oil: Price and trade impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-06-26

    This study addresses the issue of the ban on exports of Alaskan crude oil. At present almost all crude oil production from Alaska must be sold in the United States, i.e., it may not be exported. This study examines the impact, mainly on the West Coast, of eliminating this export restraint. The study concentrates on two time periods. These are 1988, the most recent year for which complete data are available, and 1995, a year in which Alaskan production is projected to be substantially less than at present. This is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) second report on this subject. The first was released earlier in 1990. They differ principally in the years for which results are presented and in the models used to generate quantitative results. The first report was limited to 1988. The quantitative results for that year were based on use of a single region model and therefore did not take into account petroleum interactions among all areas of the world. Because of this limitation, quantitative results were limited to Alaskan crude oil prices. All other price and trade flow results were qualitative. In contrast, the present report covers both 1988 and 1995. The quantitative results are generated with use of a more comprehensive model, one which does take into account petroleum interactions among all areas of the world. The model-generated results cover both crude and product prices as well as petroleum trade flows. The quantitative results in the present report therefore supersede those in the first, although both sets are generally consistent.

  6. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  7. World frontiers beckon oil finders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01

    This paper discusses the international aspects of the petroleum industry. Most who work in the industry agree that the possibilities for huge are found largely in international regions. Something that is helping fuel that possibility is the way countries are increasingly opening their doors to US oil industry involvement. Listed in this paper is a partial list of the reported projects now underway around the world involving US companies. It is not intended to be comprehensive, but rather an indication of how work continues despite a general lull atmosphere for the oil industry. These include Albania, Bulgaria, Congo, Czechoslovakia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ireland, Malta, Madagascar, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Panama, Paraquay, and Senegal.

  8. THE WORLD'S Biggest Fan Collection

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    WORLD'S Biggest Fan Collection If you only know the Big Ass Fan Company as the preeminent designer and manufacturer of high volume, low speed fans for factories and cows, it's time you get to know us better. While we continue to lead the way in industrial and agricultural air movement, we've also refined these designs to bring the same innovation and benefits of our famous fans to circulate an ocean of air in sound-sensitive commercial spaces and homes. And when our customers said they wanted

  9. A MATERIAL WORLD Tailoring Materials

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WINTER* 2000-2001 A MATERIAL WORLD Tailoring Materials for the Future A QUARTERLY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT JOURNAL VOLUME 2, NO. 4 ALSO: New Materials for Microsystems Predictive Modeling Meets the Challenge S A N D I A T E C H N O L O G Y ON THE COVER: Bonnie Mckenzie operates a dual beam Focused Ion Beam/Scanning Electron Microscope (FIB/SEM). The image on the computer screen shows a cross section of a radiation-hardened device. The cross section was rendered with the FIB/SEM and allowed the

  10. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  11. ClearWorld Now | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Now Place: Beijing, China Zip: 100027 Product: China-based operational investment arm of ClearWorld Energy Ltd. References: ClearWorld Now1 This article is a stub. You can...

  12. SolarWorld Korea | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Korea-based JV set up by SolarWorld AG and SolarPark Engineering Co Ltd aimed at manufacturing solar modules and installing utility-scale PV projects. References: SolarWorld...

  13. STEO January 2013 - world oil prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gap between U.S. and world oil prices to be cut by more than half over next two years The current wide price gap between a key U.S. and a world benchmark crude oil is expected to ...

  14. Environmental effects of SO{sub 2} trading and banking

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtraw, D.; Mansur, E.

    1999-10-15

    The widely acknowledged innovation of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments is sulfur dioxide allowance trading, which is designed to encourage the electricity industry to minimize the cost of reducing emissions. Few studies have examined the environmental effects of trading, and none have explored the effects of banking. The authors used an integrated assessment computer model, the Tracking and Analysis Framework, to evaluate changes in emissions of SO{sub 2}, atmospheric concentrations of sulfates and deposition of sulfur, and public health benefits from reduced exposure to SO{sub 2} and particulate matter. They assessed geographic and temporal changes at the state level that result from trading and banking and compared them with estimated cost savings. The findings are not consistent with the feats of the program's critics. In the East and Northeast including New York State, an area of particular concern, the authors found that health benefits increase and sulfur deposition decrease slightly as a result of trading. Nationally, trading results in health-related benefits in addition to significant cost savings. Banking changes the timing of emissions, but the geographic consequence of banking is varied.

  15. Neal Lane: Science in a Flat World

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Neal Lane

    2010-09-01

    Lane discusses the changes that have taken place in the world since World War II that have made it "flatter," referring to Thomas L. Friedman's book, The World is Flat. Friedman's main premise is that inexpensive telecommunications is bringing about unhampered international competition, the demise of economic stability, and a trend toward outsourcing services, such as computer programming, engineering and science research.

  16. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  18. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  19. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  20. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  1. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  2. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  3. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  4. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  5. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  6. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  7. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  8. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  9. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  10. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  12. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  13. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  14. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  15. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  16. Credit Trading and Wind Power: Issues and Opportunities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kevin Rackstraw, John Palmisano

    2001-01-15

    OAK-B135 This paper focuses on credits that are derived from wind energy technology, but the same concepts apply to other renewable energy technologies as well. Credit trading can be applied to a wide variety of policies, programs and private market activities and represents a means of tapping into revenue streams that heretofore have largely excluded wind and other renewables. In addition, credit trading can help to ''create'' new revenue streams for wind and other renewables by helping to grow new markets.

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  18. Application to Export Electric Energy OE Docket No. EA-367-A EDF Trading

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    North America, LLC | Department of Energy 7-A EDF Trading North America, LLC Application to Export Electric Energy OE Docket No. EA-367-A EDF Trading North America, LLC Application from EDF Trading North America to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-367-A EDF Trading North America (CN).pdf More Documents & Publications EA-367-A EDF Trading North America,LLC Application to Export Electric Energy OE Docket No. EA-367-A EDF Trading North America, LLC: Federal Register Notice,

  19. EA-367-A EDF Trading North America,LLC | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    7-A EDF Trading North America,LLC EA-367-A EDF Trading North America,LLC Order authorizing EDF N.A. to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-367-A EDF Trading (CN).pdf More Documents & Publications Application to Export Electric Energy OE Docket No. EA-367-A EDF Trading North America, LLC Application to Export Electric Energy OE Docket No. EA-367-A EDF Trading North America, LLC: Federal Register Notice, Volume 80, No. 153 - August 10, 2015 EA-367 EDF Trading North America, LLC

  20. Neutrino telescopes in the World

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ernenwein, J.-P.

    2007-01-12

    Neutrino astronomy has rapidly developed these last years, being the only way to get specific and reliable information about astrophysical objects still poorly understood.Currently two neutrino telescopes are operational in the World: BAIKAL, in the lake of the same name in Siberia, and AMANDA, in the ices of the South Pole. Two telescopes of the same type are under construction in the Mediterranean Sea: ANTARES and NESTOR. All these telescopes belong to a first generation, with an instrumented volume smaller or equal to 0.02 km3. Also in the Mediterranean Sea, the NEMO project is just in its stag phase, within the framework of a cubic kilometer size neutrino telescope study. Lastly, the ICECUBE detector, with a volume reaching about 1 km3, is under construction on the site of AMANDA experiment, while an extension of the BAIKAL detector toward km3 is under study. We will present here the characteristics of these experiments, as well as the results of their observations.

  1. Emissions trading programs, making sense of the options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fahrer, S.

    1996-03-01

    In an attempt to move away from the traditional command-and-control approach to regulation, the US Environmental Protection Agency has begun to develop economic incentive programs. These programs encourage compliance with nationwide pollution-reduction goals, but seek industry action based on market or profit incentives, rather than fear of retribution or penalty. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) require that stringent means be taken to reduce NOx pollution in so-called ozone-nonattainment areas. Under CAAA Title IV, the SO{sub 2} trading program went into effect in 1993 to reduce acid rain. For NO{sub x}, several programs are either already in operation, or are under development. These include the Cap and Trade program, the Open Market trading program and New Source Review Offset Trading program. These 3 programs are described. To obtain a Title V operating permit, issues to consider are operation, job descriptions, certification process, value, estimating future emissions, confidentiality, permits, inter-media coordination, costs, and publicity.

  2. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  3. The European Union's emissions trading system in perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Denny Ellerman; Paul L. Joskow

    2008-05-15

    The performance of the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to date cannot be evaluated without recognizing that the first three years from 2005 through 2007 constituted a 'trial' period and understanding what this trial period was supposed to accomplish. Its primary goal was to develop the infrastructure and to provide the experience that would enable the successful use of a cap-and-trade system to limit European GHG emissions during a second trading period, 2008-12, corresponding to the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The trial period was a rehearsal for the later more serious engagement and it was never intended to achieve significant reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions in only three years. In light of the speed with which the program was developed, the many sovereign countries involved, the need to develop the necessary data, information dissemination, compliance and market institutions, and the lack of extensive experience with emissions trading in Europe, we think that the system has performed surprisingly well. Although there have been plenty of rough edges, a transparent and widely accepted price for tradable CO{sub 2} emission allowances emerged by January 1, 2005, a functioning market for allowances has developed quickly and effortlessly without any prodding by the Commission or member state governments, the cap-and-trade infrastructure of market institutions, registries, monitoring, reporting and verification is in place, and a significant segment of European industry is incorporating the price of CO{sub 2} emissions into their daily production decisions. The development of the EU ETS and the experience with the trial period provides a number of useful lessons for the U.S. and other countries. 27 refs., 7 figs., 5 tabs.

  4. Republic of Macedonia-World Bank Climate Projects | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Bank Climate Projects Jump to: navigation, search Name Republic of Macedonia-World Bank Climate Projects AgencyCompany Organization World Bank Sector Energy, Land Focus...

  5. Gabon-World Bank Climate Activities | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Bank Climate Activities Jump to: navigation, search Name Gabon-World Bank Climate Activities AgencyCompany Organization World Bank Sector Land Focus Area Forestry Topics...

  6. Ukraine-World Bank Climate Projects | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Bank Climate Projects Jump to: navigation, search Name Ukraine-World Bank Climate Projects AgencyCompany Organization World Bank Sector Energy Focus Area Energy Efficiency...

  7. Browsing the World Wide Web from behind a firewall

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simons, R.W.

    1995-02-01

    The World Wide Web provides a unified method of access to various information services on the Internet via a variety of protocols. Mosaic and other browsers give users a graphical interface to the Web that is easier to use and more visually pleasing than any other common Internet information service today. The availability of information via the Web and the number of users accessing it have both grown rapidly in the last year. The interest and investment of commercial firms in this technology suggest that in the near future, access to the Web may become as necessary to doing business as a telephone. This is problematical for organizations that use firewalls to protect their internal networks from the Internet. Allowing all the protocols and types of information found in the Web to pass their firewall will certainly increase the risk of attack by hackers on the Internet. But not allowing access to the Web could be even more dangerous, as frustrated users of the internal network are either unable to do their jobs, or find creative new ways to get around the firewall. The solution to this dilemma adopted at Sandia National Laboratories is described. Discussion also covers risks of accessing the Web, design alternatives considered, and trade-offs used to find the proper balance between access and protection.

  8. Student's algorithm solves real-world problem

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Student's algorithm solves real-world problem Supercomputing Challenge: student's algorithm solves real-world problem Students learn how to use powerful computers to analyze, model, and solve real-world problems. April 3, 2012 Jordon Medlock of Albuquerque's Manzano High School won the 2012 Lab-sponsored Supercomputing Challenge Jordon Medlock of Albuquerque's Manzano High School won the 2012 Lab-sponsored Supercomputing Challenge by creating a computer algorithm that automates the process of

  9. Will You Be Trading in Your Clunker for Cash--and a More Efficient...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    which provides an incentive to trade in your old vehicle for a new, fuel-efficient model. Will you be trading in your clunker for cash--and a more efficient vehicle? ...

  10. File:03-TX-f - Lease of Land Trade Lands.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TX-f - Lease of Land Trade Lands.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:03-TX-f - Lease of Land Trade Lands.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599...

  11. EA-359-B Castleton Commodities Merchant Trading L.P. | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    B Castleton Commodities Merchant Trading L.P. EA-359-B Castleton Commodities Merchant Trading L.P. Order authorizing Castleton to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon ...

  12. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  13. Fuel Consumption and NOx Trade-offs on a Port-Fuel-Injected SI...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOx Trade-offs on a Port-Fuel-Injected SI Gasoline Engine Equipped with a Lean-NOx Trap Fuel Consumption and NOx Trade-offs on a Port-Fuel-Injected SI Gasoline Engine Equipped with ...

  14. EA-166-A Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Order authorizing Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-166-A Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C More Documents & ...

  15. EA-166 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Order authorizing Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-166 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C More Documents & ...

  16. World Biotechnology Leaders to Gather for Conference

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    private companies and research organizations, the annual event focuses on improving the economics of producing fuels and chemicals vital to the world's industrial sector. ...

  17. Energy Secretary Moniz Dedicates World's Largest Concentrating...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz will participate today in the opening of the Ivanpah Solar Energy Generating System, the world's largest concentrating solar power (CSP) plant. As ...

  18. World Fuel Cell Council | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Fuel Cell Council Place: Frankfurt, Germany Zip: D-60313 Product: Its objective is to promote the most rapid commercialisation of this benign technology worldwide....

  19. World Renewable Energy Congress Provides International Forum...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World Renewable Energy Congress Provides International Forum Delegates to gather in Denver to share knowledge, ideas, on energy issues November 14, 2003 Denver, Colo. - Energy ...

  20. Keeping Tabs on the World's Dangerous Chemicals

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Sandia chemical engineer Nancy Jackson has worked in laboratories around the world to help ensure that chemicals are used safely and kept secure.

  1. The World Bank - Transport | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    provides relevant information about transport, focusing on The World Bank Transport Strategy - Safe, Clean and Affordable - Transport for Development. The website includes...

  2. World Wildlife Fund | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    5 References About "For more than 45 years, WWF has been protecting the future of nature. The world's leading conservation organization, WWF works in 100 countries and is...

  3. World Waste Technologies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Waste Technologies Jump to: navigation, search Name: World Waste Technologies Place: San Diego, California Sector: Biofuels Product: Technology developer that focuses on converting...

  4. World Wise Technologies Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wise Technologies Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: World Wise Technologies Inc Place: Carson City, Nevada Zip: 89701 Sector: Renewable Energy Product: Develops renewable...

  5. World Power Technologies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Power Technologies Jump to: navigation, search Name: World Power Technologies Place: Edison, NJ Information About Partnership with NREL Partnership with NREL Yes Partnership Type...

  6. Renewable Energy World | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Renewable Energy World Place: United Kingdom Sector: Renewable Energy Product: Bimonthly magazine, which used to be published by James & James on the renewable energy industry. Now...

  7. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  8. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  9. EA-168-B PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    -B PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P EA-168-B PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P Order authorizing PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-168-B ...

  10. EA-168 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    EA-168 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P EA-168 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P Order authorizing PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P to export electric energy to Canada. PDF icon EA-168 ...

  11. EA-167-A PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-167-A PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P Order authorizing PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-167-A PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P More ...

  12. EA-167 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-167 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P Order authorizing PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P to export electric energy to Mexico. PDF icon EA-167 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P More ...

  13. NERSC's Contribution to the World's Supercomputing Communitiy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bill Kramer NERSC's Contribution to the World's Supercomputing Communitiy February 5, 2014 Bill Kramer, NCSA Downloads NERSC-Contributions-NERSC-40th-Anniversary-kramer.pdf | Adobe Acrobat PDF file NERSC's Contribution to the World's Supercomputing Communitiy Last edited: 2014-02-14 16:31:09

  14. The Brave New World of Buckytubes

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Richard Smalley

    2010-09-01

    In a talk titled "The Brave New World of Buckytubes," Smalley discusses the basic science underlying the exotic chemical and physical properties, as well as the methods of production, purification, analysis, and assembly of buckytubes for solving real-world technological problems.

  15. SunShot-Supported Companies to Build One of the Worlds Largest Module Factories

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    EERE SunShot partners, Silevo and SolarCity have announced plans to join forces to build one of the worlds largest module factories in Buffalo, New York.

  16. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  17. The geography of So{sub 2} emissions trading

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Solomon, B.

    1995-12-01

    Interstate trading of SO{sub 2} emission allowances under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 represents the largest-scale application of market principles to environmental protection. some opponents have hypothesized that high emitting electric power plants in the Midwestern states will buy additional allowances and thereby sustain SO{sub 2} emissions at unacceptable high levels. Much of these emissions would then continue to return downwind as sulfates in the Northeast, damaging critical ecosystems such as lakes and forests in the Adirondacks. A competing hypothesis is that in an increasingly competitive utility industry, a power plant will choose the least-cost compliance option for its SO{sub 2} emission requirements, which for many large and dirty Midwestern plants will be to retrofit with scrubbers. This paper will provide the first comprehensive empirical analysis of the geographic pattern of SO{sub 2} allowance trading for the first three years (early 1992 to early 1995) to determine the validity of the first hypothesis. It will be shown that with the exception of one electric utility in Illinois, the Midwestern states have not used allowance trading to sustain high emission levels. A Congressionally-mandated subsidy for scrubber retrofits at Phase I affected-units, however, has allowed two of these states (Ohio and Indiana) plus three additional Appalachian states (Tennessee, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) to acquire large quantities of bonus allowances. Most of these additional allowances may be banked for future use at other affected units by the acquiring utilities, since the newly scrubbed plants will have much lower SO{sub 2} emissions because of the scrubber retrofits. The good news is that the trading program is projected to save a lot of money, over $2 billion out of a possible $3 billion in annual compliance costs by the time of Phase II.

  18. On emissions trading, toxic debt and the Australian power market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simshauser, Paul

    2009-03-15

    Implementation of emissions trading will have profound effects on the financial stability of coal generators. While the impact on equity capital is well understood, the potential fallout in the market for project finance is not. During the current global financial crisis, the form and quantum of transitional assistance to coal generators will be crucial to ensure ongoing participation of domestic and foreign project banks in the power markets. (author)

  19. Update on Fabrication of Extrusions for TREAT Trade Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luther, Erik Paul; Leckie, Rafael M.; Dombrowski, David E.; Papin, Pallas A.

    2014-03-05

    This supplemental report describes fuel fabrication efforts conducted for the Idaho National Laboratory Trade Study for the TREAT Conversion project that is exploring the replacement of the HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) fuel core of the TREAT reactor with LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) fuel. Previous reports have documented fabrication of fuel by the upgrade process developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. These experiments supplement an earlier report that describes efforts to increase the graphite content of extruded fuel and minimize cracking.

  20. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  1. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  2. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  3. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  4. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  5. Allowance trading activity and state regulatory rulings: Evidence from the US Acid Rain Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bailey, E.M.

    1997-12-31

    The US Acid Rain Program is one of the first, and by far the most extensive, applications of a market based approach to pollution control. From the beginning, there has been concern whether utilities would participate in allowance trading, and whether regulatory activity at the state level would further complicate utilities` decision to trade allowances. This paper finds that public utility commission regulation has encouraged allowance trading activity in states with regulatory rulings, but that allowance trading activity has not been limited to states issuing regulations. Until there is evidence suggesting that significant additional cost savings could have been obtained if additional allowance trading activity had occurred in states without regulations or that utilities in states with regulations are still not taking advantage of all cost saving trading opportunities, this analysis suggests that there is little reason to believe that allowance trading activity is impeded by public utility commission regulations.

  6. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  7. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  8. Jefferson Lab is a world-leading ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to the study of the building blocks of matter that make up 98 percent of our visible universe. Scientists from across the nation and around the world use the lab's facilities to...

  9. Energy Secretary Moniz Dedicates World's Largest Concentrating...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    a world leader in solar energy," said Secretary Moniz. "As the President made clear in the State of the Union, we must continue to move toward a cleaner energy economy, and ...

  10. Berkeley Lab Particle Accelerator Sets World Record

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Berkeley Lab Particle Accelerator Sets World Record Berkeley Lab Particle Accelerator Sets World Record Simulations at NERSC Help Validate Experimental Laser-Plasma Design December 9, 2014 Contact: Kate Greene, kgreene@lbl.gov, 510-486-4404 particleaccelerator A 9 cm-long capillary discharge waveguide used in BELLA experiments to generate multi-GeV electron beams. The plasma plume has been made more prominent with the use of HDR photography. Image: Roy Kaltschmidt Using one of the most powerful

  11. World War II | National Nuclear Security Administration

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    World War II Keeping the "Spirit of '45 Alive" in Kansas City National Security Campus employees commemorated the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II by sharing stories of their loved ones, viewing photographs and documents with Truman Library historians and listening to WWII veteran Max DeWeese reminisce about his experience in the war. The August

  12. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  13. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  14. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  15. Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ivanhoe, L.F.

    1996-11-01

    The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world`s large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth`s population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia`s developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert`s original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world`s oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production.

  16. World nuclear fuel cycle requirements 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-10-10

    The nuclear fuel cycle consists of mining and milling uranium ore, processing the uranium into a form suitable for generating electricity, burning'' the fuel in nuclear reactors, and managing the resulting spent nuclear fuel. This report presents projections of domestic and foreign requirements for natural uranium and enrichment services as well as projections of discharges of spent nuclear fuel. These fuel cycle requirements are based on the forecasts of future commercial nuclear power capacity and generation published in a recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. Also included in this report are projections of the amount of spent fuel discharged at the end of each fuel cycle for each nuclear generating unit in the United States. The International Nuclear Model is used for calculating the projected nuclear fuel cycle requirements. 14 figs., 38 tabs.

  17. Infrastructure opportunities in South America: Energy sector. Export trade information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-06-01

    The report, conducted by CG/LA, Inc., was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency. The report was assembled for the South American Infrastructure Conference held in New Orleans. It contains a regional overview of infrastructure activities in ten countries represented at the conference. Also covered are project listings in five sectors, including Energy, Transportation, Environment, Telecommunications, and Industry. The study covers TDA case studies as well as project financeability. The ten countries covered in the report include the following: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. This volume focuses on the Energy Sector in South America.

  18. Ryazan power plant feasibility study. Volume 2. Export trade information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-01

    This study was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency on behalf of the Ryazan Power Plant Joint Stock Company to assess the feasibility of rehabilitating the Ryazan Power Plant in Novomichurinsk, Russia. The scope of this study includes reviewing plant equipment and operations as well as making recommendations for upgrade to present day plant standards. The main emphasis of the report is on boiler analysis, but also includes all equipment from coal entering the plant to electrical power leaving the plant. This is the second of two volumes and is divided into the following sections: (C) Technical - Sections 6-18; (D) Commercial; (E) Socioeconomic Considerations; (F) Conclusions.

  19. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  20. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  1. FIA-13-0058 - In the Matter of Hanford Atomic Metals Trades Council |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy 8 - In the Matter of Hanford Atomic Metals Trades Council FIA-13-0058 - In the Matter of Hanford Atomic Metals Trades Council On October 29, 2013, the Office of Hearings and Appeals (OHA) issued a decision denying an appeal (Appeal) from a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) determination issued by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Information Resources (OIR). The Hanford Atomic Metals Trades Council (Appellant), sought categories of records concerning

  2. The diseconomics of long-haul LNG trading

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stauffer, T.R.

    1995-12-31

    Long-haul liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports yield little or no economic rent. Trades, such as Borneo to Japan, are economical, but government takes otherwise are minimal. Today, the price of LNG is capped by the technical option of modifying gas turbines to bum liquid fuels. The maximum premium for LNG is less than 50 cents per thousand cubic feet (/Mcf), and buyers are resisting any price above oil parity. Costs of LNG are high and increase with distance. The netback value is zero or even negative for the longer-distance trades. The value of extracted co-products (natural gas liquids) is 50 cents to $1/Mcf. These credits are the principal source of profit, especially for foreign partners because natural gas liquids are taxed at low {open_quotes}industrial{close_quotes} rates. Returns are even less when the gas supply is nonassociated so that the project must {open_quotes}pay{close_quotes} the production costs as well. Some exporting countries profit; but the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as a whole looses because low-revenue LNG energy displaces at the margin fully taxed oil.

  3. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: The potential impacts of a worst-case military conflict on world petroleum availability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, R.; Das, S.; Leiby, P.N.

    1991-01-01

    A major Middle East and European military confrontation would cause an extremely large disruption in the supply of oil worldwide. There would be imbalances between oil supply and demand. These imbalances can only be solved by rationing and by military actions to ensure an adequate flow of crude oil and products. 25 refs., 5 tabs.

  4. The World Renewable Energy Forum in Denver | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The World Renewable Energy Forum in Denver The World Renewable Energy Forum in Denver Addthis 1 of 12 Santiago Seage, CEO of Abengoa Solar speaks at the World Renewable Energy ...

  5. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  6. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  7. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  8. SO{sub 2} and NOx trading markets: providing flexibility and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sam Napolitano; Melanie LaCount; Daniel Chartier

    2007-06-15

    Experience with the Acid Rain and NOx Budget Trading Programs demonstrates that cap-and-trade programs are an effective means of achieving broad improvements in air quality. Results demonstrate that the combination of mandatory emissions caps, a viable allowance trading market, rigorous emissions monitoring and reporting protocols, and automatic enforcement provide accountability and ensure results in a cost-effective manner. The market developments discussed in this article demonstrate a successful environmental partnership. With a government focused on results and a private sector motivated to innovate, cap-and trade systems deliver environmental results as efficiently and effectively as possible. 3 refs., 4 figs,

  9. SO{sub 2} trading program as a metaphor for a competitive electric industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O`Connor, P.R.

    1996-12-31

    This very brief presentation focuses on the competitive market impacts of sulfur dioxide SO{sub 2} emissions trading. Key points of the presentation are highlighted in four tables. The main principles and results of the emissions trading program are outlined, and the implications of SO{sub 2} trading for the electric industry are listed. Parallels between SO{sub 2} trading and electric utility restructing identified include no market distortion by avoiding serious disadvantages to competitors, and avoidance of stranded costs through compliance flexibility. 4 tabs.

  10. Will You Be Trading in Your Clunker for Cash--and a More Efficient Vehicle?

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    | Department of Energy Will You Be Trading in Your Clunker for Cash--and a More Efficient Vehicle? Will You Be Trading in Your Clunker for Cash--and a More Efficient Vehicle? August 6, 2009 - 11:43am Addthis On Tuesday, Amy told you about the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS) Program, widely known as "Cash-for-Clunkers," which provides an incentive to trade in your old vehicle for a new, fuel-efficient model. Will you be trading in your clunker for cash--and a more efficient

  11. The role of the trading arm of a major marketing company

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coorsh, B.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses trading from a marketing company and within the natural gas industry. The implications for information systems are described.

  12. The feasibility of effluent trading in the oil and gas industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veil, J.A.

    1997-09-01

    In January 1996, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a policy statement endorsing wastewater effluent trading in watersheds, hoping to promote additional interest in the subject. The policy describes five types of effluent trades - point source/point source, point source/nonpoint source, pretreatment, intraplant, and nonpoint source/nonpoint source. This paper evaluates the feasibility of effluent trading for facilities in the oil and gas industry. The evaluation leads to the conclusion that potential for effluent trading is very low in the exploration and production and distribution and marketing sectors; trading potential is moderate for the refining sector except for intraplant trades, for which the potential is high. Good potential also exists for other types of water-related trades that do not directly involve effluents (e.g., wetlands mitigation banking). The potential for effluent trading in the energy industries and in other sectors would be enhanced if Congress amended the Clean Water Act (CWA) to formally authorize such trading.

  13. Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for American

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Businesses and the Global Environment | Department of Energy Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for American Businesses and the Global Environment Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for American Businesses and the Global Environment April 13, 2015 - 2:35pm Addthis The joint trade mission will make stops in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. | Map by <a href="/node/712881">Daniel Wood</a>, Department of Energy. The joint trade

  14. Workplace Charging Challenge Partner: World Learning Inc. | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Learning Inc. Workplace Charging Challenge Partner: World Learning Inc. Workplace Charging Challenge Partner: World Learning Inc. Joined the Challenge: November 2014 Headquarters: Brattleboro, VT Charging Location: Brattleboro, VT Domestic Employees: 334 World Learning Inc. is a nonprofit organization advancing leadership in more than 60 countries. World Learning envisions a just world, driven by engaged citizens and thriving communities. SIT Graduate Institute is a program of World

  15. NREL Researcher is Top World Physicist

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is Top World Physicist For more information contact: Kerry Masson, (303) 275-4083 e:mail: kerry_masson@nrel.gov Golden, Colo., March 17, 1998 — Dr. Alex Zunger, Institute Research Fellow at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), has been ranked as one of the top physicists in the world by the Institute of Scientific Information (ISI). The standing is based on the number of times his research has been cited by fellow scientists. Of the 517,111

  16. Comparison of Real World Energy Consumption to Models and DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PDF icon Comparison of Real World Energy Consumption to Models and Department of Energy ... Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Analyzing Real-World Light Duty ...

  17. Jefferson Lab Celebrates 2005: World Year of Physics | Jefferson...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World Year of Physics Jefferson Lab Celebrates 2005: World Year of Physics January 24, 2005 Newport News, Va. - This year marks the 100th anniversary of Albert Einstein's ...

  18. Microsoft Word - Wireless Automation World for OE FINAL.doc

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Automation World Features New White Paper on Wireless Security, Interviews Authors April 16, 2009 The April 2009 issue of Automation World magazine features the white paper ...

  19. Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress April 6, 2006 - 10:12am Addthis Remarks Prepared for Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman ...

  20. Invention Factor: How Will The World Get Smaller | GE Global...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is changing the manufacturing process for jet engines and opening up the world of air ... to the Real World in 10 Years primusenginefeaturedimage3 GE Innovation and ...

  1. Solar Junction Develops World Record Setting Concentrated Photovoltaic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Junction Develops World Record Setting Concentrated Photovoltaic Solar Cell Solar Junction Develops World Record Setting Concentrated Photovoltaic Solar Cell April 18, 2013 - ...

  2. EERE Success Story-Solar Junction Develops World Record Setting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Junction Develops World Record Setting Concentrated Photovoltaic Solar Cell EERE Success Story-Solar Junction Develops World Record Setting Concentrated Photovoltaic Solar ...

  3. Agua Caliente, World's Largest Solar Photovoltaic Plant, Helps...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Agua Caliente, World's Largest Solar Photovoltaic Plant, Helps Advance America's Solar Leadership Agua Caliente, World's Largest Solar Photovoltaic Plant, Helps Advance America's ...

  4. India-World Bank Climate Projects | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Name India-World Bank Climate Projects AgencyCompany Organization World Bank Sector Energy, Land Focus Area Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Topics Background analysis...

  5. Philippines-World Bank Climate Projects | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Philippines-World Bank Climate Projects AgencyCompany Organization World Bank Sector Energy, Land Focus Area Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, Geothermal Topics Background...

  6. Fact #839: September 22, 2014 World Petroleum Consumption Continues...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    22, 2014 World Petroleum Consumption Continues to Rise despite Declines from the United States and Europe Fact 839: September 22, 2014 World Petroleum Consumption Continues to ...

  7. Competition Provides Students with Real-World Engineering Experience...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Competition Provides Students with Real-World Engineering Experience Competition Provides Students with Real-World Engineering Experience April 10, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis Fifteen...

  8. World Bank-Climate Change Knowledge Portal | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Climate Change Knowledge Portal Jump to: navigation, search Logo: World Bank-Climate Change Knowledge Portal Name World Bank-Climate Change Knowledge Portal AgencyCompany...

  9. Making Development Climate Resilient: A World Bank Strategy for...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Development Climate Resilient: A World Bank Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Making Development Climate Resilient: A World...

  10. Entech Solar Inc formerly WorldWater Solar Technologies | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Inc formerly WorldWater Solar Technologies Jump to: navigation, search Name: Entech Solar Inc. (formerly WorldWater & Solar Technologies) Place: Fort Worth, Texas Zip: 76177...

  11. Chasing the Sun: Solar Adventures Around the World | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Chasing the Sun: Solar Adventures Around the World Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Chasing the Sun: Solar Adventures Around the World AgencyCompany...

  12. Secretary Chu Joins with World Leaders to Sign International...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Joins with World Leaders to Sign International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation Secretary Chu Joins with World Leaders to Sign International Partnership for Energy ...

  13. Visualization of World Energy Supply | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    isualizationofWorldEnergySupply Cost: Free OpenEI Keyword(s): Community Generated Language: English References: OECD1 Motion chart visualization of the world energy supply...

  14. Clean World Capital A S | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Capital A S Jump to: navigation, search Name: Clean World Capital AS Place: Lyngby, Denmark Sector: Carbon Product: A cleantech finance house based in Copenhagen and London....

  15. World's Largest Concentrating Solar Power Plant Opens in California...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    World's Largest Concentrating Solar Power Plant Opens in California World's Largest Concentrating Solar Power Plant Opens in California February 19, 2014 - 12:00am Addthis Ivanpah, ...

  16. World Energy Use; ISO Standards that Can Help

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 49 % from 2007 to 2035. Source : " World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook ", in the International Energy ...

  17. Georgia-World Bank Climate Projects | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Projects Jump to: navigation, search Name Georgia-World Bank Climate Projects AgencyCompany Organization World Bank Focus Area Renewable Energy, Hydro Topics Background analysis...

  18. Top of the World (Siemens) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Siemens) Jump to: navigation, search Name Top of the World (Siemens) Facility Top of the World (Siemens) Sector Wind energy Facility Type Commercial Scale Wind Facility Status In...

  19. Laser Focus World highlights Kaminski's home-grown ARPES spectroscopy...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laser Focus World highlights Kaminski's home-grown ARPES spectroscopy system Laser Focus World senior editor Gail Overton wrote a story on angled-resolved photo-emission...

  20. Fact #840: September 29, 2014 World Renewable Electricity Consumption...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    40: September 29, 2014 World Renewable Electricity Consumption is Growing Fact 840: September 29, 2014 World Renewable Electricity Consumption is Growing Electricity generated ...

  1. World Geothermal Power Generation 2001-2005 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    dismantled. Author Ruggero Bertani Conference World Geothermal Congress; Antalya, Turkey; 20050424 Published World Geothermal Congress, 2005 DOI Not Provided Check for DOI...

  2. Energy Advising Services in the Post-ARRA World | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Advising Services in the Post-ARRA World Energy Advising Services in the Post-ARRA World Better Buildings Residential Network Workforce Business Partners Peer Exchange ...

  3. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  4. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  5. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  6. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  7. Carbon Smackdown: Cookstoves for the developing world

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Ashok Gadgil, Kayje Booker, and Adam Rausch

    2010-09-01

    In this June 30, 2010 Berkeley Lab summer lecture, learn how efficient cookstoves for the developing world ? from Darfur to Ethiopia and beyond ? are reducing carbon dioxide emissions, saving forests, and improving health. Berkeley Lab's Ashok Gadgil, Kayje Booker, and Adam Rausch discuss why they got started in this great challenge and what's next.

  8. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  9. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  10. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  11. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  12. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  13. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  14. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  15. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  16. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  17. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  18. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  19. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  20. Mazheikiai refinery modernization study. Executive summary. Export trade information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    The study, conducted by Foster Wheeler Corporation, was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency on behalf of Lithuania's Ministry of Energy. The Mazheikiai Oil Refinery is the only one in the Baltic Region and serves the needs of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Kaliningrad. Before Lithuania's independence in 1990, the refinery was assured of crude supplies from Russia. However, since then the need has arisen to secure alternate sources of crude oil and the ability to process them. The purpose of the report is to provide recommendations to the Ministry of Energy for process improvements, environmental control measures, physical rehabilitation and energy conservation plans for the Mazheikiai Oil Refinery. The volume contains the Executive Summary.