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While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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1

Regression modeling method of space weather prediction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. With its help two new geoeffective parameters were found: latitudinal and longitudinal flow angles of the solar wind. It was shown that Dst index remembers its previous values for 2000 hours.

Parnowski, Aleksei

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts of numerical weather prediction for intra?day solar numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance 

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

The Influence of Hydrologic Modeling on the Predicted Local Weather: Two-Way Coupling of a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model and a Land Surface Hydrologic Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A two-way coupling of the operational mesoscale weather prediction model known as Lokal Modell (LM; German Weather Service) with the land surface hydrologic “TOPMODEL”-Based Land Surface–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (TOPLATS; Princeton University) ...

G. Seuffert; P. Gross; C. Simmer; E. F. Wood

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

A Split Explicit Reformulation of the Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model of the Japan Meteorological Agency  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The split explicit integration scheme for numerical weather prediction models is employed in a version of the regional numerical weather prediction model of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The finite-difference scheme of the model is designed in ...

Dean G. Duffy

1981-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Operational Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction with the COSMO Model: Description and Sensitivities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since April 2007, the numerical weather prediction model, COSMO (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling), has been used operationally in a convection-permitting configuration, named COSMO-DE, at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD; German weather ...

Michael Baldauf; Axel Seifert; Jochen Förstner; Detlev Majewski; Matthias Raschendorfer; Thorsten Reinhardt

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Using Temporal Modes of Rainfall to Evaluate the Performance of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors demonstrate that much can be learned about the performance of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by examining the temporal modes of its simulated rainfall. Observations from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D)...

Jason C. Knievel; David A. Ahijevych; Kevin W. Manning

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Passive millimeter-wave retrieval of global precipitation utilizing satellites and a numerical weather prediction model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis develops and validates the MM5/TBSCAT/F([lambda]) model, composed of a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (MM5), a two-stream radiative transfer model (TBSCAT), and electromagnetic models for ...

Surussavadee, Chinnawat

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Localized Precipitation Forecasts from a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although the resolution of numerical weather prediction models continues to improve, many of the processes that influence precipitation are still not captured adequately by the scales of present operational models, and consequently precipitation ...

Robert J. Kuligowski; Ana P. Barros

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

QNH: Design and Test of a Quasi-Nonhydrostatic Model for Mesoscale Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new mesoscale weather prediction model, called QNH, is described. It is characterized by a parameter that multiplies the hydrostatic terms in the vertical equation of motion. Models of this type are referred to generically as “quasi-...

A. E. MacDonald; J. L. Lee; S. Sun

2000-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

A Vertically Nested Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Second-Order Closure Physics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The model we describe involves a unique strategy in which a high vertical resolution grid is nested within the coarse vertical resolution grid of a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Physics computations performed on the high ...

Stephen D. Burk; William T. Thompson

1989-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

A New Visibility Parameterization for Warm-Fog Applications in Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The objective of this work is to suggest a new warm-fog visibility parameterization scheme for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In situ observations collected during the Radiation and Aerosol Cloud Experiment, representing boundary ...

I. Gultepe; M. D. Müller; Z. Boybeyi

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Evaluation of Precipitation from Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Satellites Using Values Retrieved from Radars  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation is evaluated from two weather prediction models and satellites, taking radar-retrieved values as a reference. The domain is over the central and eastern United States, with hourly accumulated precipitation over 21 days for the ...

Slavko Vasi?; Charles A. Lin; Isztar Zawadzki; Olivier Bousquet; Diane Chaumont

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Operational Assimilation of GPS Zenith Total Delay Observations into the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Zenith total delay (ZTD) observations derived from ground-based GPS receivers have been assimilated operationally into the Met Office North Atlantic and European (NAE) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model since 2007. Assimilation trials were ...

Gemma V. Bennitt; Adrian Jupp

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output ...

Martyn P. Clark; Lauren E. Hay

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Predicting Cloud-to-Ground and Intracloud Lightning in Weather Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new prognostic, spatially and temporally dependent variable is introduced to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This variable is called the potential electrical energy (Ep). It was used to predict the dynamic contribution of the ...

Barry H. Lynn; Yoav Yair; Colin Price; Guy Kelman; Adam J. Clark

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Estimates of Cn2 from Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output and Comparison with Thermosonde Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Area-averaged estimates of Cn2 from high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output are produced from local estimates of the spatial structure functions of refractive index with corrections for the inherent smoothing and filtering ...

Rod Frehlich; Robert Sharman; Francois Vandenberghe; Wei Yu; Yubao Liu; Jason Knievel; George Jumper

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

A Comprehensive Radiation Scheme for Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Potential Applications in Climate Simulations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A comprehensive scheme for the parameterization of radiative transfer in numerical weather Prediction (NWP) models has been developed. The scheme is based on the solution of the ?-two-stream version of the radiative transfer equation ...

Bodo Ritter; Jean-Francois Geleyn

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

A Quasi-Lagrangian Regional Model Designed for Operational Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A regional numerical weather prediction model is designed using the quasi-Lagrangian method for operational forecasting of synoptic and mesoscale disturbances. The nonlinear advective terms and the total forcing experienced by a fluid parcel are ...

Mukut B. Mathur

1983-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

The Impact of Satellite Sounding Data on the Systematic Error of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of satellite sounding data on the systematic errors of the numerical weather prediction model of the Israel Meteorological Service has been investigated. In general, satellite data have been shown to reduce systematic error, and in ...

Noah Wolfson; Albert Thomasell; Arnold Gruber; George Ohring

1985-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

The Use of Quasi-Nonhydrostatic Models for Mesoscale Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In recent years, there has been extensive study of the mathematical basis of weather prediction leading to a new system of continuous equations that are well posed, and a set of conditions that make discrete atmospheric and other models stable ...

A. E. MacDonald; J. L. Lee; Y. Xie

2000-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Numerical Prediction of an Antarctic Severe Wind Event with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) ...

Jordan G. Powers

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Cloud Predictions Diagnosed from Global Weather Model Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Air Force has a long history of investment in cloud analysis and prediction operations. Their need for accurate cloud cover information has resulted in routine production of global cloud analyses (from their RTNEPH analysis model) and ...

Donald C. Norquist

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Forecasting the Skill of a Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is demonstrated that the skill of short-term regional numerical forecasts can be predicted on a day-to-day basis. This was achieved by using a statistical regression scheme with the model forecast errors (MFE) as the predictands and the ...

L. M. Leslie; K. Fraedrich; T. J. Glowacki

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Suitability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to Predict the June 2005 Fire Weather for Interior Alaska  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Standard indices used in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and Fosberg fire-weather indices are calculated from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and observations in interior Alaska for June 2005. Evaluation ...

Nicole Mölders

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Low Clouds Contribute to Weather Prediction Model Bias | U.S. DOE Office of  

Office of Science (SC) Website

2 2 » Low Clouds Contribute to Weather Prediction Model Bias Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) News & Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3251 F: (301) 903-5051 E: sc.ber@science.doe.gov More Information » November 2012 Low Clouds Contribute to Weather Prediction Model Bias Long-term measurement records improve the representation of clouds in climate and weather forecast models. Print Text Size: A A A Subscribe

26

Implicit Versus Explicit Convective Heating in Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability of several explicit formulations of convective heating to predict the precipitation associated with a mesoscale convective complex was compared to that of a cumulus parameterization on a ½ deg latitude-longitude mesh. In the explicit ...

John Molinari; Michael Dudek

1986-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

A Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Variable Resolution  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A conformal transformation suggested by F. Schmidt is followed to implement a global spectral model with variable resolution. A conformal mapping is defined from a physical sphere (like the earth) to a transformed (computational) sphere. The ...

Vivek Hardiker

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Two-Time-Step Oscillations in Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Spurious, nonamplifying, two-time-step oscillations are present in several numerical models of the atmosphere where the vertical diffusion is parameterized using a nonlinear diffusion equation. The problems become particularly pronounced when the ...

Ulla Hammarstrand

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Mesoscale Forecasts Generated from Operational Numerical Weather-Prediction Model Output  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A technique called Model Output Enhancement (MOE) has been developed for the generation and display of mesoscale weather forecasts. The MOE technique derives mesoscale or high-resolution (order of 1 km) weather forecasts from synoptic-scale ...

John G. W. Kelley; Joseph M. Russo; Toby N. Carlson; J. Ronald Eyton

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models Used in Support of Infrared Hyperspectral Measurement Simulation and Product Algorithm Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A novel application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models within an end-to-end processing system used to demonstrate advanced hyperspectral satellite technologies and instrument concepts is presented. As part of this system, sophisticated ...

Jason A. Otkin; Derek J. Posselt; Erik R. Olson; Hung-Lung Huang; James E. Davies; Jun Li; Christopher S. Velden

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Predictions of Turbulent Flow Parameters in a Dry Convective Boundary Layer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions using different boundary layer schemes and horizontal grid spacings were compared with observational and numerical large-eddy simulation data for conditions corresponding to a dry ...

Jeremy A. Gibbs; Evgeni Fedorovich; Alexander M. J. van Eijk

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

A High-Resolution Topographic Correction Method for Clear-Sky Solar Irradiance Derived with a Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rugged terrain is a source of variability in the incoming solar radiation field, but the influence of terrain is still not properly included by most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this work, a downscaling postprocessing ...

José A. Ruiz-Arias; David Pozo-Vázquez; Vicente Lara-Fanego; Francisco J. Santos-Alamillos; J. Tovar-Pescador

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\\it Solar Phys.}, {\\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.

G. Michalek; N. Gopalswamy; S. Yashiro

2007-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

34

Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\\it Solar Phys.}, {\\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.

Michalek, G; Yashiro, S

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Field-Object Design of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model for Uni- and Multiprocessors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of a numerical weather model constructed from scalar, vector, and tensor field objects is evaluated on several workstation computers and on a message-passing multiprocessor.

D. K. Purnell; M. J. Revell; P. N. McGavin

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Diagnosis and Correction of Systematic Humidity Error in a Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accuracy of humidity forecasts has been considered relatively unimportant to much of the operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) community. However, the U.S. Air Force is interested in accurate water vapor and cloud forecasts as end ...

Donald C. Norquist; Sam S. Chang

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Distributed Numerical Weather Prediction via Satellite  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a recent undertaking in distributed numerical weather prediction via high data rate networks. The governing project involved the operation of a coupled mesoscale modeling system on widely separated supercomputers, and ...

Jordan G. Powers; Mark T. Stoelinga; William S. Boyd

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Ensemble Data Assimilation to Characterize Surface-Layer Errors in Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Experiments with the single-column implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model provide a basis for deducing land–atmosphere coupling errors in the model. Coupling occurs both through heat and moisture fluxes through the land–...

J. P. Hacker; W. M. Angevine

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model were evaluated during the 2004 Storm Prediction Center–National Severe Storms Laboratory Spring Program in a simulated severe weather forecasting environment. The ...

John S. Kain; S. J. Weiss; J. J. Levit; M. E. Baldwin; D. R. Bright

2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. 1999; Hoinka and Castro 2003), Saudi Arabia (Ackermann and Cox 1982; Blake et al. 1983; Smith 1986a peak. Because of the dryness of the land, a large fraction of the incoming solar radiation is available on local weather. A good example is the `west- coast trough' over Australia. The coastal areas of Western

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In recent years there has been a growing appreciation of the potential advantages of using a seamless approach to weather and climate prediction. However, what exactly should this mean in practice? To help address this question, we document some of the ...

Andrew Brown; Sean Milton; Mike Cullen; Brian Golding; John Mitchell; Ann Shelly

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Building simulation weather forecast files for predictive control strategies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model-Based Predictive Control (MPC) has received significant attention in recent years as a tool for load management in buildings. MPC is based on predicting the response of a system based on knowledge of future inputs, such as weather and occupancy. ... Keywords: EPW files, building simulation, predictive control, weather forecast

José. A. Candanedo; Éric Paradis; Meli Stylianou

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

The Conversion of Total Column Ozone Data to Numerical Weather Prediction Model Initializing Fields, with Simulations of the 24–25 January 2000 East Coast Snowstorm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Satellites are uniquely capable of providing uniform data coverage globally. Motivated by such capability, this study builds on a previously described methodology that generates numerical weather prediction (NWP) model initial conditions (ICs) ...

Dorothy Durnford; John Gyakum; Eyad Atallah

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

The Use of Satellite Data in the Specification of Convective Heating for Diabatic Initialization and Moisture Adjustment in Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although diabatic processes play an important role in the tropical circulation, current analysis schemes and numerical weather prediction models are unable to adequately include diabatic heating information. In this paper, procedures for using ...

Kamal Puri; M. J. Miller

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Using Radar Wind Observations to Improve Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution radar data assimilation system is presented for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. The system is under development at the Naval Research Laboratory for the Navy’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction ...

Qingyun Zhao; John Cook; Qin Xu; Paul R. Harasti

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Information Flow in Ensemble Weather Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In a weather prediction, information flows from the initial conditions to a later prediction. The uncertainty in the initial conditions implies that such a flow should be quantified with tools from probability theory. Using several recent ...

Richard Kleeman

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Short-Term PV Generation System Direct Power Prediction Model on Wavelet Neural Network and Weather Type Clustering  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With the increase of the capacity of PV generated systems, how to eliminate the problem caused by the randomness of power output for photovoltaic system becomes more significant. Most of the existing photovoltaic prediction is Based on the solar radiation. ... Keywords: PV generation system, Wavelet neural network, Weather type clustering, Direct prediction

Ying Yang, Lei Dong

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The first modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were developed for the computer that was announced in 1932 at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton, New Jersey. Within 3 yr three agencies of the United States Government ...

Frederick G. Shuman

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Long-Range Weather Prediction: Limits of Predictability and Beyond  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The details of the weather are not predictable beyond one to two weeks. At longer time ranges, averages of the weather over space and time can be usefully predicted only to the extent that the variations of the averages exceed the “noise” ...

Edward S. Epstein

1988-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

E4DVar: Coupling an Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in a Limited-Area Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A hybrid data assimilation approach that couples the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and four-dimensional variational (4DVar) methods is implemented for the first time in a limited-area weather prediction model. In this coupled system, denoted ...

Meng Zhang; Fuqing Zhang

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Mesoscale Weather Prediction with the RUC Hybrid Isentropic–Terrain-Following Coordinate Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A mesoscale atmospheric forecast model configured in a hybrid isentropic–sigma vertical coordinate and used in the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) for operational numerical guidance is presented. The RUC model is the only quasi-isentropic forecast ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Georg A. Grell; John M. Brown; Tatiana G. Smirnova; Rainer Bleck

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

WRF-Fire: Coupled Weather–Wildland Fire Modeling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wildland fire-behavior module, named WRF-Fire, was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire-behavior model that is two-way coupled with the ...

Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands that the GCM parameterizations ...

Thomas J. Phillips; Gerald L. Potter; David L. Williamson; Richard T. Cederwall; James S. Boyle; Michael Fiorino; Justin J. Hnilo; Jerry G. Olson; Shaocheng Xie; J. John Yio

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Regional Weather Prediction with a Model Combining Terrain-following and Isentropic Coordinates. Part I: Model Description  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A short-range numerical prediction model, which is part of a real-time 3-h data assimilation and forecast system, is described. The distinguishing feature of the model is the use of terrain-following (?) coordinate surfaces in the lower ...

Rainer Bleck; Stanley G. Benjamin

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

The Parameterization of Radiation for Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a review of the various methods used to compute both the fluxes and the rate of heating and/or cooling due to atmospheric radiation for use in numerical models of atmospheric circulation. The paper does not follow, step by ...

Graeme L. Stephens

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Cloud and Precipitation Parameterization in a Meso-Gamma-Scale Operational Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper assesses the difficulties of running an operational NWP model in the resolution range of 3–8 km. In this case, deep convection cells are neither much smaller than the grid box as assumed by most parameterization schemes, nor completely ...

Luc Gerard; Jean-Marcel Piriou; Radmila Brožková; Jean-François Geleyn; Doina Banciu

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Adjoint sensitivity analysis for numerical weather prediction: applications to power grid optimization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We present an approach to estimate adjoint sensitivities of economic metrics of relevance in the power grid with respect to physical weather variables using numerical weather prediction models. We demonstrate that this capability can significantly enhance ... Keywords: adjoint sensitivity analysis, numerical weather prediction, power grid planning, sensor siting

Alexandru Cioaca; Victor Zavala; Emil Constantinescu

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

IdentifyingWeather Systems from NumericalWeather Prediction Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather systems such as tropical cyclones, fronts, troughs and ridges affect our daily lives. Yet, they are often manually located and drawn on weather charts based on forecasters' experience. To identify them, multiple atmospheric elements need to be ...

WONG Ka Yan; YIP Chi Lap; LI Ping Wah

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)  

SciTech Connect

A model evaluation approach is proposed where weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross-section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade-winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate, and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and sub-tropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross-section from the sub-tropics to the tropics for the season JJA of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical crosssections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA40 in the stratocumulus regions (as compared to ISCCP) is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade-wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross-section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.

Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, Jason N.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, A.; Hannay, Cecile; Jakob, Christian; Jiao, Y.; Karlsson, J.; Kitagawa, H.; Koehler, M.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; LeDrian, C.; Lock, Adrian; Miller, M.; Marquet, P.; Martins, J.; Mechoso, C. R.; Meijgaard, E. V.; Meinke, I.; Miranda, P.; Mironov, D.; Neggers, Roel; Pan, H. L.; Randall, David A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Rockel, B.; Rossow, William B.; Ritter, B.; Siebesma, A. P.; Soares, P.; Turk, F. J.; Vaillancourt, P.; Von Engeln, A.; Zhao, M.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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61

On-line Chemistry within WRF: Description and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Multiscale Air Quality and Weather Prediction Model  

SciTech Connect

This is a conference proceeding that is now being put together as a book. This is chapter 2 of the book: "INTEGRATED SYSTEMS OF MESO-METEOROLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELS" published by Springer. The chapter title is "On-line Chemistry within WRF: Description and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Multiscale Air Quality and Weather Prediction Model." The original conference was the COST-728/NetFAM workshop on Integrated systems of meso-meteorological and chemical transport models, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, May 21-23, 2007.

Grell, Georg; Fast, Jerome D.; Gustafson, William I.; Peckham, Steven E.; McKeen, Stuart A.; Salzmann, Marc; Freitas, Saulo

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

A Comparative Verification of Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Forecasts of Ceiling Height and Visibility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In an effort to support aviation forecasting, the National Weather Service’s Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently redeveloped the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) system. LAMP is designed to run ...

David E. Rudack; Judy E. Ghirardelli

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), National Weather Association, and American Meteorological Society (AMS) cosponsored a “...

Kristine Harper; Louis W. Uccellini; Lauren Morone; Eugenia Kalnay; Kenneth Carey

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

A Finite-Element Model of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Suitable for Use with Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We give a detailed description of an atmospheric boundary layer model capable of simulating the diurnal cycles of wind, temperature and humidity. The model includes a formulation of various physical processes (radiative effects, variation of soil ...

J. Mailhot; R. Benoit

1982-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MOS), Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Solar Forecasting of numerical weather prediction for intra?day solar solar energy applications based on aerosol chemical transport and  numerical weather 

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Numerical Weather Prediction Studies from the FGGE Southern Hemisphere Data Base  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The quality of numerical weather prediction available for the Southern Hemisphere from the FGGE data base has been examined. The Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre (ANMRC) spectral prediction model has been initialized with analyses ...

W. Bourke; K. Puri; R. Seaman

1982-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans

Steenburgh, Jim

68

ORNL analysis predicts losses from extreme weather damage could...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ORNL analysis predicts losses from extreme weather damage could double by 2050 Researcher tackles unprecedented county-by-county economic loss forecast Research in impacts,...

69

American Solar Energy Society Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez ASRC, Albany, NY, Perez to solar radiation forecasting include (1) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that infer local cloud© American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION

Perez, Richard R.

70

Evapotranspiration from Nonuniform Surfaces: A First Approach for Short-Term Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Natural land surfaces are rarely homogeneous over the resolvable scales of numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, these models must somehow account for the subgrid variability in processes that are nonlinealy dependent on surface ...

Peter J. Wetzel; Jy-Tai Chang

1988-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Verification of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasts in Mountainous Terrain for Application to Avalanche Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two high-resolution, real-time, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against case study observations to quantify their accuracy and skill in the mountainous terrain of western Canada. These models, run daily at the University of ...

Claudia Roeger; Roland Stull; David McClung; Joshua Hacker; Xingxiu Deng; Henryk Modzelewski

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Kalman Filter and Analog Schemes to Postprocess Numerical Weather Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two new postprocessing methods are proposed to reduce numerical weather prediction’s systematic and random errors. The first method consists of running a postprocessing algorithm inspired by the Kalman filter (KF) through an ordered set of analog ...

Luca Delle Monache; Thomas Nipen; Yubao Liu; Gregory Roux; Roland Stull

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...

Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

WEATHER PREDICTIONS AND SURFACE RADIATION ESTIMATES  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

ARLV - ARLV - 3 51 - 4 / WEATHER PREDICTIONS AND SURFACE RADIATION ESTIMATES for the RULISON EVENT Final Report Albert H . S t o u t , Ray E . White, and V i r g i l E. Quinn Environmental Science Services Administration A i r Resources Laboratory - Las Vegas PROPERW OF U. S. GOVERNMENT Prepared Under Contract SF-54-351 f o r the Nevada Operations O f f i c e U . ' S . Atomic Energy Commission January 1970 LEGAL NOTSCCE ; L *U . . . . . - . T h i s r e p o r t w a s prepared a s an account o f Government spon- s o r e d work. N e i t h e r t h e United S t a t e s , nor t h e Commission, . n o r any person a c t i n g on b e h a l f of t h e Commission: A . Makes any warranty o r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , e x p r e s s e d o r implied, w i t h r e s p e c t t o the a c c u r a c y , completeness, or u s e h l n e s s o f t h e information c o n t a i n e d i n t h i s r e p o r t , o r t h a

75

Soil Initialization Strategy for Use in Limited-Area Weather Prediction Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Three diverse methods of initializing soil moisture and temperature in limited-area numerical weather prediction models are compared and assessed through the use of nonstandard surface observations to identify the approach that best combines ease ...

Francesca Di Giuseppe; Davide Cesari; Giovanni Bonafé

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Temporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The study describes a method of evaluating numerical weather prediction models by comparing the characteristics of temporal changes in simulated and observed 10-m (AGL) winds. The method is demonstrated on a 1-yr collection of 1-day simulations ...

Daran L. Rife; Christopher A. Davis; Jason C. Knievel

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

The Accuracy of Solar Irradiance Calculations Used in Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, solar irradiance forecasts made by mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are compared with observations taken during three air-quality experiments in various parts of the United States. The authors evaluated the fifth-...

Robert J. Zamora; Ellsworth G. Dutton; Michael Trainer; Stuart A. McKeen; James M. Wilczak; Yu-Tai Hou

2005-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

NOAA Predicts Mixed Bag of Drought, Flooding and Warm Weather...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

NOAA Predicts Mixed Bag of Drought, Flooding and Warm Weather for Spring Print E-mail NOAA 2013 Spring Outlook Map Thursday, March 21, 2013 Featured by NOAA, a member of the U.S....

79

The Assimilation of Radar Data for Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Assimilation of radar data is one of the key scientific challenges for numerical weather prediction of convective systems. Considerable progress has been made in recent years including retrieval of boundary layer winds from single-Doppler ...

Juanzhen Sun; James W. Wilson

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Global Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we describe the global numerical weather prediction system of the National Meteorological Center, and review recent improvements, the evolution in skill, and current research projects and plans.

E. Kalnay; M. Kanamitsu; W. E. Baker

1990-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

82

The Meteorological Development Laboratory’s Aviation Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has developed and implemented an aviation weather prediction system that runs each hour and produces forecast guidance for each hour into the future out to 25 h covering the major forecast period of ...

Judy E. Ghirardelli; Bob Glahn

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Edward Epstein's Stochastic-Dynamic Approach to Ensemble Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the late-1960s, well before the availability of computer power to produce ensemble weather forecasts, Edward Epstein (1931 – 2008) developed a stochastic – dynamic prediction (SDP) method for calculating the temporal evolution of mean value, variance ...

John M. Lewis

84

Estimates of Turbulence from Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output with Applications to Turbulence Diagnosis and Data Assimilation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Estimates of small-scale turbulence from numerical model output are produced from local estimates of the spatial structure functions of model variables such as the velocity and temperature. The key assumptions used are the existence of a ...

Rod Frehlich; Robert Sharman

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Predicting the Energy Output of Wind Farms Based on Weather Data: Important Variables and their Correlation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world-wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather condition present at the wind farm. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproductions. With this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We reveal the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly given weather data.

Vladislavleva, Katya; Neumann, Frank; Wagner, Markus

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

An Assessment of the Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Surface Wind Stress in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability of six climate models to capture the observed coupling between SST and surface wind stress in the vicinity of strong midlatitude SST fronts is analyzed. The analysis emphasizes air–sea interactions associated with ocean meanders in ...

Eric D. Maloney; Dudley B. Chelton

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Visual data fusion for applications of high-resolution numerical weather prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Keywords: data fusion, demographics, energy demand prediction, graphics design, meteorology, user tasks, visualization, weather forecasting

Lloyd A. Treinish

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Learning uncertainty models from weather forecast performance databases using quantile regression  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast uncertainty information is not available in the immediate output of Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Such important information is required for optimal decision making processes in many domains. Prediction intervals are a prominent ... Keywords: numerical weather forecast, prediction interval, quantile regression, uncertainty modeling

Ashkan Zarnani; Petr Musilek

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Predicting the microbial "weather" | Argonne National Laboratory  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

News News Press Releases Feature Stories In the News Experts Guide Media Contacts Social Media Photos Videos Fact Sheets, Brochures and Reports Summer Science Writing Internship Predicting the microbial "weather" By Louise Lerner * April 16, 2012 Tweet EmailPrint ARGONNE, Ill.-New computer models are letting scientists forecast changes in the population of microbes in the English Channel up to a week in advance. Environmental microbiologist Jack Gilbert of the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory heads the Earth Microbiome Project, an initiative to sample and analyze DNA from bacteria, viruses, algae and fungi across the world. Our environment is full of microbes that affect everything from human health to climate change, and these microbes are

90

An Explicit Cloud Physics Parameterization for Operational Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In anticipation of computers that will be able to run weather forecasting models on very fine grids fast enough for real-time purposes, an algorithm for representing water phase change and precipitation processes was developed. The design ...

Paul Schultz

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

PREDICTIVE MODELS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1) chemical flooding; 2) carbon dioxide miscible flooding; 3) in-situ combustion; 4) polymer flooding; and 5) steamflood. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes. The IBM PC/AT version includes a plotting capability to produces a graphic picture of the predictive model results.

Ray, R.M. (DOE Bartlesville Energy Technology Center, Bartlesville, OK (United States))

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model for two frost events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meso-local-scale weather information could be used as a guideline for crop protection to effectively manage and mitigate the effects of frost damage. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the meso-local-scale weather forecasts from the state-of-the-art ... Keywords: Frost protection, Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network, Temperature prediction, Weather Research and Forecasting model

Thara Prabha; Gerrit Hoogenboom

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Statistical Significance Testing in Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Experiments are often performed with numerical forecast models to determine the response to a changed model formulation, initial conditions or boundary conditions. Such experiments are inherently subject to sampling error and it is not always ...

Roger Daley; Robert M. Chervin

1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

DREAM tool increases space weather predictions  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

to years. This complex variation occurs in response to solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic conditions. Accurately modeling this population is complicated, which is where...

95

Distributed Processing of a Regional Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the parallelization of a mesoscale-cloud-scale numerical weather prediction model and experiments conducted to assess its performance. The model used is the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), a limited-area ...

Kenneth W. Johnson; Jeff Bauer; Gregory A. Riccardi; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Ming Xue

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

PREDICTIVE MODELS  

SciTech Connect

PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1) chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2) carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3) in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4) polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5) steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

Ray, R.M. (DOE Bartlesville Energy Technology Technology Center, Bartlesville, OK (United States))

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system, developed by the National Weather Service (NWS), uses conceptual hydrologic models and historical data to generate a set, or ensemble, of possible streamflow scenarios conditioned on the initial ...

Kristie J. Franz; Holly C. Hartmann; Soroosh Sorooshian; Roger Bales

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Mesoscale Modeling for Mountain Weather Forecasting Over the Himalayas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe weather has a more calamitous effect in the mountainous region-because the terrain is complex and the economy is poorly developed and fragile. Such weather systems occurring on a small spatiotemporal scale invite application of models with ...

Someshwar Das; S. V. Singh; E. N. Rajagopal; Robert Gall

2003-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Southern Hemisphere Medium-Range Forecast Skill and Predictability: A Comparison of Two Operational Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of two global numerical weather prediction models, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) medium-range forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model, has been ...

James A. Renwick; Craig S. Thompson

2001-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

The Effect of Bias in Divisional and State Mean Temperatures on Weather-Crop Yield Model Predictions: A Case Study in Indiana  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Historical series of mean temperatures for climatological divisions and the state of Indiana contain systematic biases, the greatest being about ?1.0°C in the Central Division in the 1940s. When these data are used in weather-management, crop-...

R. F. Dale; W. M. L. Nelson; J. P. McGarrahan

1983-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Weather  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

to the latest meteorological observations, climatological information, and weather forecast products for the Los Alamos area. December 14, 2011 Snow vortex A snow vortex in Los...

102

Identifying predictive multi-dimensional time series motifs: an application to severe weather prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We introduce an efficient approach to mining multi-dimensional temporal streams of real-world data for ordered temporal motifs that can be used for prediction. Since many of the dimensions of the data are known or suspected to be irrelevant, our approach ... Keywords: Multi-dimensional, Severe weather, Temporal data mining

Amy Mcgovern; Derek H. Rosendahl; Rodger A. Brown; Kelvin K. Droegemeier

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Lidar-Measured Winds from Space: A Key Component for Weather and Climate Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate.

Wayman E. Baker; George D. Emmitt; Franklin Robertson; Robert M. Atlas; John E. Molinari; David A. Bowdle; Jan Paegle; R. Michael Hardesty; Madison J. Post; Robert T. Menzies; T. N. Krishnamurti; Robert A. Brown; John R. Anderson; Andrew C. Lorenc; James McElroy

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher resolution real-time model simulations possible, the need to obtain observations to both initialize numerical models and verify their output has become increasingly important. The assimilation of high resolution radar observations therefore provides a vital component in the development and utility of numerical model forecasts for both weather forecasting and contaminant transport, including future opportunities to improve wet deposition computations explicitly.

Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

105

Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...

Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore...

107

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Operational Climate, Ocean, and Weather Prediction for the 21st Century  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center is being restructured to serve a broader mission, which includes operational climate and ocean prediction as well as short-range weather prediction. Its successor organization is called the National Centers for ...

Ronald D. McPherson

1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be regarded as the backbone for energy meteorol-  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be regarded as the backbone for energy meteorol- ogists when predicting highly fluctuating wind and solar power. While the meteorological fore- cast) is simulated with weather analysis and NWP forecasts. The distributed generation of wind power is favorable

Heinemann, Detlev

109

Assessing the Capability of a Regional-Scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on model-predicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both the high occurrence and ...

Marla R. Knebl Lowrey; Zong-Liang Yang

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Idealized Adaptive Observation Strategies for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Adaptive sampling uses information about individual atmospheric situations to identify regions where additional observations are likely to improve weather forecasts of interest. The observation network could be adapted for a wide range of ...

Rebecca E. Morss; Kerry A. Emanuel; Chris Snyder

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill  

SciTech Connect

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

112

Sensitivity of Low-Latitude Velocity Potential Field in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model to Initial Conditions, Initialization and Physical Processes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is shown that the tropical divergent circulation in the nine-level Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) spectra model is dominated by the lowest frequency gravity modes for vertical mode 4. The importance of diabatic heating during ...

Kamal Puri

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

The Use and Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output in Identifying Synoptic-Scale Environments Associated with Development of Mesoscale Convective Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An experiment is reported in which derived diagnostic parameters computed from Limited-area Fine-Mesh (LFM) model gridpoint data were examined to determine subjectively whether their availability in real time would assist the forecaster in ...

Barry E. Schwartz; Dennis M. Rodgers; J. Todd Hawes

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Leaf Area Index Specification for Use in Mesoscale Weather Prediction Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The energy budget at the surface is strongly influenced by the presence of vegetation, which alters the partitioning of thermal energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes. Despite its relevance, numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems ...

Christoph Knote; Giovanni Bonafe; Francesca Di Giuseppe

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

The Value of a Variable Resolution Approach to Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is shown that a numerical weather prediction system with variable resolution, higher in the early forecast range and lower afterward, provides more skilful forecasts than a system with constant resolution. Results indicate that the advantage ...

Roberto Buizza

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

WEATHER SEQUENCES FOR PREDICTING HVAC SYSTEM BEHAVIOUR IN RESIDENTIAL UNITS LOCATED IN TROPICAL CLIMATES.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WEATHER SEQUENCES FOR PREDICTING HVAC SYSTEM BEHAVIOUR IN RESIDENTIAL UNITS LOCATED IN TROPICAL on the energy needs of HVAC system. We'll apply the method on the tropical Reunion Island. The methodological

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

117

Impact of Radiosonde Balloon Drift on Numerical Weather Prediction and Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Radiosonde observations employed in real-time numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications are disseminated through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) using alphanumeric codes. These codes do not include information about the position ...

Stéphane Laroche; Réal Sarrazin

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) ...

Gilbert Brunet; Melvyn Shapiro; Brian Hoskins; Mitch Moncrieff; Randall Dole; George N. Kiladis; Ben Kirtman; Andrew Lorenc; Brian Mills; Rebecca Morss; Saroja Polavarapu; David Rogers; John Schaake; Jagadish Shukla

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

An Assessment of Marine Surface Winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Numerical Weather Prediction Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for routinely verifying numerical weather prediction surface marine winds with satellite scatterometer winds is introduced. The marine surface winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational global and regional numerical ...

Eric W. Schulz; Jeffrey D. Kepert; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Severe and Convective Weather at the Mesoscales  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores both the practical and intrinsic predictability of severe convective weather at the mesoscales using convection-permitting ensemble simulations of a squall line and bow echo event during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective ...

Christopher Melhauser; Fuqing Zhang

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a Bayesian context, new measures of accuracy and skill are proposed to verify weather element forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with respect to individual observations. The new scores are in the form of probabilities of ...

Laurence J. Wilson; William R. Burrows; Andreas Lanzinger

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction Are Not Achieving Their Potential  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although the large U.S. meteorological community has made significant strides in weather diagnosis and prediction, progress has been slowed by a lack of cooperation, coordination, and pooling of resources. This paper analyzes such problems in a ...

Clifford Mass

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

The power of weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather information demonstrates predictive power in forecasting electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. In particular, next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices in terms of point ... Keywords: Electricity prices, GARCH models, Point and density forecasts, Weather forecasts

Christian Huurman; Francesco Ravazzolo; Chen Zhou

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Regional Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are ...

Xin-Zhong Liang; Min Xu; Xing Yuan; Tiejun Ling; Hyun I. Choi; Feng Zhang; Ligang Chen; Shuyan Liu; Shenjian Su; Fengxue Qiao; Yuxiang He; Julian X. L. Wang; Kenneth E. Kunkel; Wei Gao; Everette Joseph; Vernon Morris; Tsann-Wang Yu; Jimy Dudhia; John Michalakes

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Using a Fuzzy-Petri-Net-Based Approach for the Offshore Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the huge amounts of data related to the atmospheric elements, the difficulty of weather forecasting is very large, which require an intelligent environment. To solve the problem, a fuzzy Petri net (FPN) model to represent knowledge and the behavior ... Keywords: fuzzy Petri net, weather forecasting, intelligent database, problematic behavior

Yan Chenghua; Chen Qixiang

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Efficient forest fire occurrence prediction for developing countries using two weather parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forest fire occurrence prediction plays a major role in resource allocation, mitigation and recovery efforts. This paper compares two artificial intelligence based methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM), utilizing ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Feature Reduction, Forest fire occurrence prediction, Support vector machines, Weather data

George E. Sakr; Imad H. Elhajj; George Mitri

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

A Fingerprinting Technique for Major Weather Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advances in numerical weather prediction have occurred on numerous fronts, from sophisticated physics packages in the latest mesoscale models to multimodel ensembles of medium-range predictions. Thus, the skill of numerical weather forecasts ...

Benjamin Root; Paul Knight; George Young; Steven Greybush; Richard Grumm; Ron Holmes; Jeremy Ross

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

Oglesby, Robert J [ORNL; Erickson III, David J [ORNL

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Development of Rail Temperature Prediction Model SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Preventing track buckling is important to the railroad industry’s goal of operational safety. It is a common practice for railroads to impose slow orders during hot weather when the risk of track buckling is high. Numerous factors affect track buckling, but the instantaneous rail temperatures and stress-free (neutral) rail temperatures are the most critical factors. Unfortunately, neither of these two temperatures is easily obtainable. Decisions for slow orders are often based on an arbitrary, ambient temperature limit. The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Office of Research and Development has initiated a research project to develop a model for predicting rail temperatures based on real-time meteorological forecast data. The rail temperature prediction model is based on the heat transfer process of a rail exposed to the sun. In developing such a model, a rail-weather station was established, composed of a portable weather station and a short segment of rail track with temperature sensors installed on both rails. The model has proven to be able to predict the maximum rail temperature within a few degrees and within 30 minutes of the actual time when the maximum rail temperature occurs during the day. The model is being validated for three locations where real-time weather data and rail temperature are collected. A prototype webbased

unknown authors

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Modelling and forecasting wind speed intensity for weather risk management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The main interest of the wind speed modelling is on the short-term forecast of wind speed intensity and direction. Recently, its relationship with electricity production by wind farms has been studied. In fact, electricity producers are interested in ... Keywords: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, Auto Regressive Gamma, Gamma Auto Regressive, Weather risk management, Wind speed modelling, Wind speed simulation

Massimiliano Caporin; Juliusz Pre

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Representing Convective Organization in Prediction Models by a Hybrid Strategy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The mesoscale organization of precipitating convection is highly relevant to next-generation global numerical weather prediction models, which will have an intermediate horizontal resolution (grid spacing about 10 km). A primary issue is how to ...

Mitchell W. Moncrieff; Changhai Liu

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

A Weather-Pattern-Based Approach to Evaluate the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Forecasts: Comparison to Automatic Weather Station Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Typical model evaluation strategies evaluate models over large periods of time (months, seasons, years, etc.) or for single case studies such as severe storms or other events of interest. The weather-pattern-based model evaluation technique ...

Melissa A. Nigro; John J. Cassano; Mark W. Seefeldt

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Controlling The Global Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The earth's atmosphere may be chaotic and very likely is sensitive to small perturbations. Certainly, very simple nonlinear dynamical models of the atmosphere are chaotic, and the most realistic numerical weather prediction models arevery ...

Ross N. Hoffman

2002-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

An All-Weather Observational Operator for Radiance Data Assimilation with Mesoscale Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Assimilating satellite radiance data under all weather conditions remains an outstanding problem in numerical weather prediction. This study develops an observational operator for use in radiance assimilation under both clear and cloudy ...

Thomas J. Greenwald; Rolf Hertenstein; Tomislava Vuki?evi?

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Halloween Storm Simulations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA In late October and early November 2003 a series of some of the most frequency communications, oil pipelines, and electricity have all become facts of life, however they all Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan and its collaborators have recently built a Space Weather

De Zeeuw, Darren L.

136

Predictability Mysteries in Cloud-Resolving Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rapid amplification of small-amplitude perturbations by the chaotic nature of the atmospheric dynamics intrinsically limits the skill of deterministic weather forecasts. In this study, limited-area cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction ...

Cathy Hohenegger; Daniel Lüthi; Christoph Schär

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report  

DOE R&D Accomplishments (OSTI)

As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more technically feasible than originally anticipated.

Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

1999-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

138

Secular Changes in Solar Magnetic Flux Amplification Factor and Prediction of Space Weather  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing trend is also observed for the solar equatorial rotation (W) which imply possibly a decrease in the efficiency of the solar dynamo during the above period. We could show correlated changes of Af and extreme space weather activity variations near earth since the middle of the 19th century. Indirect solar observations ( solar proton fluence estimates) suggests that the distinct enhancements in extreme space weather activity , Af and W found during sunspot cycles 10 to 15 is probably largest of that kind during the past 400 years. We find that the sunspot activity can reach an upper limit (Rweather conditions is most probable to occur during this cycle. Key words: Flux amplification,solar dynamo, space weather, predictions,cycle 24

T. E. Girish; G. Gopkumar

2010-11-21T23:59:59.000Z

139

Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Kimberly L. Elmore; John S. Kain; Steven J. Weiss; Ming Xue; Morris L. Weisman

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Analysis and Application of Sheppard’s Airflow Model to Predict Mechanical Orographic Lifting and the Occurrence of Mountain Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Mechanically driven orographic lifting is important for air pollution dispersion and weather prediction, but the small dimensions of mountain peaks often prevent numerical weather models from producing detailed forecasts. Mechanical lifting in ...

Jan Kleissl; Richard E. Honrath; Diamantino V. Henriques

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Long Range Weather Prediction III: Miniaturized Distributed Sensors for Global Atmospheric Measurements  

DOE R&D Accomplishments (OSTI)

We continue consideration of ways-and-means for creating, in an evolutionary, ever-more-powerful manner, a continually-updated data-base of salient atmospheric properties sufficient for finite differenced integration-based, high-fidelity weather prediction over intervals of 2-3 weeks, leveraging the 10{sup 14} FLOPS digital computing systems now coming into existence. A constellation comprised of 10{sup 6}-10{sup 9} small atmospheric sampling systems--high-tech superpressure balloons carrying early 21st century semiconductor devices, drifting with the local winds over the meteorological spectrum of pressure-altitudes--that assays all portions of the troposphere and lower stratosphere remains the central feature of the proposed system. We suggest that these devices should be active-signaling, rather than passive-transponding, as we had previously proposed only for the ground- and aquatic-situated sensors of this system. Instead of periodic interrogation of the intra-atmospheric transponder population by a constellation of sophisticated small satellites in low Earth orbit, we now propose to retrieve information from the instrumented balloon constellation by existing satellite telephony systems, acting as cellular tower-nodes in a global cellular telephony system whose ''user-set'' is the atmospheric-sampling and surface-level monitoring constellations. We thereby leverage the huge investment in cellular (satellite) telephony and GPS technologies, with large technical and economic gains. This proposal minimizes sponsor forward commitment along its entire programmatic trajectory, and moreover may return data of weather-predictive value soon after field activities commence. We emphasize its high near-term value for making better mesoscale, relatively short-term weather predictions with computing-intensive means, and its great long-term utility in enhancing the meteorological basis for global change predictive studies. We again note that adverse impacts of weather involve continuing costs of the order of 1% of GDP, a large fraction of which could be retrieved if high-fidelity predictions of two weeks forward applicability were available. These{approx}$10{sup 2} B annual savings dwarf the<$1 B costs of operating a rational, long-range weather prediction system of the type proposed.

Teller, E.; Leith, C.; Canavan, G.; Wood, L.

2001-11-13T23:59:59.000Z

142

Application of soft computing models to hourly weather analysis in southern Saskatchewan, Canada  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate weather forecasts are necessary for planning our day-to-day activities. However, dynamic behavior of weather makes the forecasting a formidable challenge. This study presents a soft computing model based on a radial basis function network (RBFN) ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Decision support, Forecasting, Modeling, Simulation, Soft computing, Weather

Imran Maqsood; Muhammad Riaz Khan; Guo H. Huang; Rifaat Abdalla

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Gaussian Model Adaptive Processing in Time Domain (GMAP-TD) for Weather Radars  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Gaussian model adaptive processing in the time domain (GMAP-TD) method for ground clutter suppression and signal spectral moment estimation for weather radars is presented. The technique transforms the clutter component of a weather radar ...

Cuong M. Nguyen; V. Chandrasekar

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

An Operational System for Generating Cloud Drift Winds in the Australian Region and Their Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has, since June 1992, produced cloud drift wind data for operational use. These data are used in the analysis cycle of the local operational numerical weather prediction system. This paper describes the ...

John Le Marshall; Neil Pescod; Bob Seaman; Graham Mills; Paul Stewart

1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Skillful Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter Accumulated Heating Degree-Days and Relevance for the Weather Derivative Market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is demonstrated that boreal winter accumulated heating degree-days, a weather derivative product that is frequently demanded by energy suppliers (among others), can be skillfully predicted with a lead time of 1 month, that is, at the beginning ...

S. Brands

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Numerical Ocean Prediction Models—Goal for the 1980s  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Based on the experience of numerical weather prediction during the 1950s and 1960s as a model, a case is presented for the development of an ocean prediction capability during the 1980s. Examples selected from recent research at the Naval ...

Russell L. Elsberry; Roland W. Garwood Jr.

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Quantifying Predictability Variations in a Low-Order Occan-Atmosphere Model: A Dynamical Systems Approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A dynamical systems approach is used to quantify the predictability of weather and climatic states of a low order, moist general circulation model. The effects on predictability of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation are evaluated. The ...

Jon M. Nese; John A. Dutton

1993-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A multiphysics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes lead to significant ...

J. Berner; S.-Y. Ha; J. P. Hacker; A. Fournier; C. Snyder

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Solute transport predicts scaling of surface reaction rates in porous media: Applications to silicate weathering  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We apply our theory of conservative solute transport, based on concepts from percolation theory, directly and without modification to reactive solute transport. This theory has previously been shown to predict the observed range of dispersivity values for conservative solute transport over ten orders of magnitude of length scale. We now show that the temporal dependence derived for the solute velocity accurately predicts the time-dependence for the weathering of silicate minerals over nine orders of magnitude of time scale, while its predicted length dependence agrees with data obtained for reaction rates over five orders of magnitude of length scale. In both cases, it is possible to unify lab and field results. Thus, net reaction rates appear to be limited by solute transport velocities. We suggest the possible relevance of our results to landscape evolution of the earth's terrestrial surface.

Hunt, Allen G; Ghanbarian, Behzad

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Spatial Variability and Interpolation of Stochastic Weather Simulation Model Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial variability of 58 precipitation and temperature parameters from the “generation of weather elements for multiple applications” (GEM) weather generator has been investigated over a region of significant complexity in topography and ...

Gregory L. Johnson; Christopher Daly; George H. Taylor; Clayton L. Hanson

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

E3DVar: Coupling an Ensemble Kalman Filter with Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in a Limited-Area Weather Prediction Model and Comparison to E4DVar  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study examines the performance of a hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation system (E3DVar) that couples an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) system for the Weather Research ...

Fuqing Zhang; Meng Zhang; Jonathan Poterjoy

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Calibrating DOE-2 to Weather and Non-Weather-Dependent Loads for a Commercial Building: Data Processing Routines to Calibrate a DOE-2 Model, Volume II  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

DOE-2 yields hourly data on specific variables provided the user specifies the HOURLY-REPORT instruction. Analyzing the simulation results with hourly data gives a more detailed picture of how well the model is predicting the monitored energy consumption. The difficulties of using hourly data to calibrate a model are the extraction of data from DOE-2's well documented output reports and processing the data into graphs which are meaningful. This chapter demonstrates the data processing routines that extract hourly end-use energy consumption and weather data from DOE-2's hourly output reports and process the data into three-dimensional plots and temperature-specific humidity carpet plots.

Bronson, J. D.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Testing and Diagnosing the Ability of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Numerical Weather Prediction Systems to Support Prediction of Solar Energy Production  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems to predict solar exposure (or insolation) was tested, with the aim of predicting large-scale solar energy several days in advance. The bureau’s ...

Paul A. Gregory; Lawrie J. Rikus; Jeffrey D. Kepert

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Performance evaluation and optimization of nested high resolution weather simulations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather models with high spatial and temporal resolutions are required for accurate prediction of meso-micro scale weather phenomena. Using these models for operational purposes requires forecasts with sufficient lead time, which in turn calls for large ...

Preeti Malakar; Vaibhav Saxena; Thomas George; Rashmi Mittal; Sameer Kumar; Abdul Ghani Naim; Saiful Azmi Bin Hj Husain

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Ability of a Regional-Scale Model to Predict the Genesis of Intense Mesoscale Convective Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the mesoscale part of a two-part evaluation of thirty forecasts produced by a mesoscalenumerical weather prediction model (MASS 2.0). The general approach taken to evaluate the mesoscale predictivecapabilities of the model is ...

Steven E. Koch

1985-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Response of model simulated weather parameters to round-off-errors on different systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, the weather forecasting model of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) is used for examining the characteristics of round-off-errors on three different computer architectures - PARAM 10K, SUNFIRE 6800 and Dec ... Keywords: Floating-point arithmetic, General Circulation Model (GCM), Iterative process, Model simulation, Round-off-errors, Spectral method

S. Goel; S. K. Dash

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

The ECPC Coupled Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Coupled Prediction Model (ECPM). The ECPM includes the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ocean model coupled to the ...

E. Yulaeva; M. Kanamitsu; J. Roads

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Simplified modeling of solar process heating systems using stochastic weather input  

SciTech Connect

A model has been developed which accurately predicts solar district heating and industrial process heating collection performance on a daily basis. The model is system specific with no storage and constant load return temperature. This model was tested for its statistical significance and found to be highly significant. Performance data to construct the model were generated through numerous TRNSYS runs. Physically important variables were then chosen for inclusion in a statistical regression analysis. The variables, which are readily available on a daily basis, were daily radiation, mean twenty-four hour temperature, and collector and system characteristics. The weather input to the model may be real measured radiation values or artificially generated radiation values. The temperature may be daily averages when real radiation values are used or monthly averages when artificial radiation is used. It is shown that there is little difference in prediction when monthly temperature is used rather than the daily values. The performance model was developed from six months of Toronto, Canada, hourly data. The validation was performed with meteorological year locations, Albuquerque, Seattle, and Miami, chosen for climate diversity. The accuracy was excellent, even on a daily basis. A model was then developed from data of all four locations. The artificial data was tested for prediction accuracy for Toronto. Where the beta distribution fit well, the accuracy was good. Where the beta distribution did not fit as well, the accuracy was acceptable.

Boardman, E.C.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

The Indo-U.S. Workshop on Weather and Climate Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A workshop on Weather and Climate Modelling, held in New Delhi (7–9 February 2002), India, under the aegis of the Indo–U.S. Science and Technology Forum brought together scientists involved in weather and climate modeling from both India and the ...

S. V. Singh; S. Basu

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using a Barotropic Model Initialized by a Generalized Inverse Method  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A nested, nondivergent barotropic numerical weather prediction model for forecasting tropical cyclone motion out to 48 h is initialized at time t = 0 by assimilating data from the preceding 24 h. The assimilation scheme finds the generalized ...

A. F. Bennett; L. M. Leslie; C. R. Hagelberg; P. E. Powers

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Microscale Numerical Prediction over Montreal with the Canadian External Urban Modeling System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Canadian urban and land surface external modeling system (known as urban GEM-SURF) has been developed to provide surface and near-surface meteorological variables to improve numerical weather prediction and to become a tool for environmental ...

Sylvie Leroyer; Stéphane Bélair; Jocelyn Mailhot; Ian B. Strachan

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Spatial Predictions of Extreme Wind Speeds over Switzerland Using Generalized Additive Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to present a methodology aimed at predicting extreme wind speeds over Switzerland. Generalized additive models are used to regionalize wind statistics for Swiss weather stations using a number of variables that ...

Christophe Etienne; Anthony Lehmann; Stéphane Goyette; Juan-Ignacio Lopez-Moreno; Martin Beniston

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Evaluation of Snow Albedo in Land Models for Weather and Climate Studies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Snow albedo plays an important role in land models for weather, climate, and hydrometeorological studies, but its treatment in various land models still contains significant deficiencies. Complementary to previous studies that evaluated the snow ...

Zhuo Wang; Xubin Zeng

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

An Immersed Boundary Method for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes an immersed boundary method that facilitates the explicit resolution of complex terrain within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Mesoscale models, such as WRF, are increasingly used for high-resolution ...

Katherine A. Lundquist; Fotini Katopodes Chow; Julie K. Lundquist

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

How Can We Advance Our Weather and Climate Models as a Community?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A common modeling infrastructure ad hoc working group evolved from an NSF/NCEP workshop in 1998, in recognition of the need for the climate and weather modeling communities to develop a more organized approach to building the software that ...

Robert E. Dickinson; Stephen E. Zebiak; Jeffrey L. Anderson; Maurice L. Blackmon; Cecelia De Luca; Timothy F. Hogan; Mark Iredell; Ming Ji; Ricky B. Rood; Max J. Suarez; Karl E. Taylor

2002-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

The Importance of Understanding Mesoscale Model Parameterization Schemes for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A severe weather outbreak that occurred on 21–23 November 1992 in the southern United States is used to illustrate how an understanding of model parameterization schemes can help in the evaluation and utilization of mesoscale model output. ...

John V. Cortinas Jr.; David J. Stensrud

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

NOMADS: A Climate and Weather Model Archive at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An online archive of real-time and historical weather and climate model output and observationaldata is now available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This archive, known asthe NOAA National Operational Model ...

Glenn K. Rutledge; Jordan Alpert; Wesley Ebisuzaki

2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Copula Based Stochastic Weather Generator as an Application for Crop Growth Models and Crop Insurance  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Stochastic Weather Generators (SWG) try to reproduce the stochastic patterns of climatological variables characterized by high dimensionality, non-normal probability density functions and non-linear dependence relationships. However, conventional SWGs usually typify weather variables with unjustified probability distributions assuming linear dependence between variables. This research proposes an alternative SWG that introduces the advantages of the Copula modeling into the reproduction of stochastic weather patterns. The Copula based SWG introduces more flexibility allowing researcher to model non-linear dependence structures independently of the marginals involved, also it is able to model tail dependence, which results in a more accurate reproduction of extreme weather events. Statistical tests on weather series simulated by the Copula based SWG show its capacity to replicate the statistical properties of the observed weather variables, along with a good performance in the reproduction of the extreme weather events. In terms of its use in crop growth models for the ratemaking process of new insurance schemes with no available historical yield data, the Copula based SWG allows one to more accurately evaluate the risk. The use of the Copula based SWG for the simulation of yields results in higher crop insurance premiums from more frequent extreme weather events, while the use of the conventional SWG for the yield estimation could lead to an underestimation of risks.

Juarez Torres, Miriam 77-

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

NETL: Computer Software & Databases - Predictive Models  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Predictive Models DOEBC-881SP. EOR Predictive Models: Handbook for Personal Computer Versions of Enhanced Oil Recovery Predictive Models. BPO Staff. February 1988. 76 pp. NTIS...

170

Model Predictive Control for Energy Efficient Buildings  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P. Haves et al. “Model Predictive Control of HVAC Systems:Bilinear Model Predictive Control of a HVAC System Usingof model predictive control algorithms for HVAC systems.

Ma, Yudong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

172

Modeling attic humidity as a function of weather, building construction, and ventilation rates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A dynamic model for predicting attic relative humidity (RH) and roof-sheathing moisture content (MC) was developed for microcomputer application. The model accepts standard hourly weather data and building-design parameters as input. Model predictions gave good agreement with measured data from a house located in Madison, Wisconsin. Solar radiation varies with roof orientation and plays an important role in determining moisture transfer to and from the roof sheathing. Opposing roof surfaces must be differentiated in attic humidity models to account for the effect of solar radiation. The model described in this paper is capable of such differentiation. Snow accumulation on a roof can significantly alter the temperature and moisture conditions in an attic, but further research is needed to understand the effect of a snow layer on attic temperatures. Various scenarios were simulated with this model to determine the effect of building practice and ventilation strategies on roof sheathing MC. Direct control of RH in the living space by ventilation is very effective in lowering attic moisture conditions. Where natural ventilation is not adequate, a timer-controlled attic fan shows great promise for ensuring efficient and economical attic ventilation.

Gorman, T.M.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Jump to: navigation, search Name PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Topics Co-benefits assessment, - Environmental and Biodiversity, - Health, Background analysis Resource Type Publications Website http://www.pnl.gov/atmospheric Country Mexico UN Region Latin America and the Caribbean References PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico[1] PNNL Publications on WRF-Chem modeling in Mexico include: Fast JD, M Shrivastava, RA Zaveri, and JC. Barnard. 2010. "Modeling particulates and direct radiative forcing from urban to synoptic scales downwind of Mexico City." Annual European Geosciences Union Assembly,

174

Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Variational data assimilation is used at major weather prediction centers to ..... the model of some physical processes such as convection, solar radiation, and.

175

Development of the Upgraded Tangent Linear and Adjoint of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors propose a new technique for parallelizations of tangent linear and adjoint codes, which were applied in the redevelopment for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with its Advanced Research WRF dynamic core using the ...

Xin Zhang; Xiang-Yu Huang; Ning Pan

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Impacts of Soil Heating Condition on Precipitation Simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Soil temperature is a major variable in land surface models, representing soil energy status, storage, and transfer. It serves as an important factor indicating the underlying surface heating condition for weather and climate forecasts. This ...

Xingang Fan

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Stochastic Weather Simulation: Overview and Analysis of Two Commonly Used Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two stochastic weather simulation models (USCLIMATE and CLIGEN) were compared for their performance in replicating observed precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation variables at six locations in the United States. Statistical tests of ...

Gregory L. Johnson; Clayton L. Hanson; Stuart P. Hardegree; Edward B. Ballard

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

A Modeling Study on the Fair Weather Marine Boundary Layer of the GATE  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A three-dimensional ensemble-mean atmospheric model, with simplified second-moment turbulence closure equations and a statistical treatment for the condensation process, is used to simulate a fair weather marine boundary layer observed during the ...

T. Yamada; C-Y. J. Kao

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

The Statistics and Horizontal Structure of Anomalous Weather Regimes in the Community Climate Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The statistics, horizontal structure, and linear barotropic dynamics of anomalous weather regimes are evaluated in a 15-winter integration of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2). Statistical and ensemble analyses of simulated regimes are ...

Robert X. Black; Katherine J. Evans

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change  

SciTech Connect

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

Auffhammer, Maximilian [University of California at Berkeley; Hsiang, Solomon M. [Princeton University; Schlenker, Wolfram [Columbia University; Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University

2013-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

A Methodology for Predicting the Puget Sound Convergence Zone and Its Associated Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ) is a terrain-induced mesoscale phenomenon that occurs in western Washington and has a dramatic impact on local weather. This paper presents the operational forecasting techniques that are used at the ...

William M. Whitney; Robert L. Doherty; Bradley R. Colman

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Impact of Targeted Winter Storm Reconnaissance Dropwindsonde Data on Midlatitude Numerical Weather Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of assimilating data from the 2011 Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program on numerical weather forecasts was assessed. Parallel sets of analyses and deterministic 120-h numerical forecasts were generated using the ECMWF four-...

Thomas M. Hamill; Fanglin Yang; Carla Cardinali; Sharanya J. Majumdar

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Environment Canada's Experimental Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games took place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on 12–28 February and 12–21 March 2010, respectively. Weather forecasting presents specific challenges at the various Olympic venues, which are ...

J. Mailhot; S. Bélair; M. Charron; C. Doyle; P. Joe; M. Abrahamowicz; N. B. Bernier; B. Denis; A. Erfani; R. Frenette; A. Giguère; G. A. Isaac; N. McLennan; R. McTaggart-Cowan; J. Milbrandt; L. Tong

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Application of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Air Quality Modeling in the San Francisco Bay Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is evaluated by conducting various sensitivity experiments over central California including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), with the goal of establishing a WRF model configuration to be used by ...

Raphael E. Rogers; Aijun Deng; David R. Stauffer; Brian J. Gaudet; Yiqin Jia; Su-Tzai Soong; Saffet Tanrikulu

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Application of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Air Quality Modeling in the San Francisco Bay Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is evaluated by conducting various sensitivity experiments over central California (CA) including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), with the goal of establishing a WRF model configuration to be ...

Raphael E. Rogers; Aijun Deng; David R. Stauffer; Brian J. Gaudet; Yiqin Jia; Su-Tzai Soong; Saffet Tanrikulu

186

PREDICTIVE MODELS. Enhanced Oil Recovery Model  

SciTech Connect

PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1 chemical flooding; 2 carbon dioxide miscible flooding; 3 in-situ combustion; 4 polymer flooding; and 5 steamflood. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes. The IBM PC/AT version includes a plotting capability to produces a graphic picture of the predictive model results.

Ray, R.M. [DOE Bartlesville Energy Technology Center, Bartlesville, OK (United States)

1992-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

187

Climate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System Resolving Model Climate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System Resolving Model Climate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System Resolving Model PI Name: Venkatramani Balaji PI Email: balaji@princeton.edu Institution: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Allocation Program: ESP Allocation Hours at ALCF: 150 Million Year: 2010 to 2013 Research Domain: Earth Science We expect our understanding of the role of clouds in climate to undergo a qualitative change as the resolutions of global models begin to encompass clouds. At these resolutions, non-hydrostatic dynamics become significant and deep convective processes are resolved. We are poised at the threshold of being able to run global scale simulations that include direct, non-parameterized, simulations of deep convective clouds. The goal of this

188

CIRES/SWPC Research Associate CIRES invites applications to fill a research associate position resident at the Space Weather Prediction Center to  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

resident at the Space Weather Prediction Center to support the recently announced DSCOVR solar wind mission. SWPC will be receiving calibrated, processed data in near-real-time from the DSCOVR solar wind plasma and magnetometer instruments. CIRES is looking for applicants capable of producing science quality space weather

Colorado at Boulder, University of

189

Ice Phase Parameterization in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article presents the implementation of simple parameterization schemes for ice phase microphysics, with snow as a diagnostic variable. The microphysical schemes are used within a standard parameterization scheme for stratiform and convective ...

Viel Ødegaard

1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

SCAPE Charts from Numerical Weather Prediction Model Fields  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although the SCAPE concept is strictly only meaningful for quasi-two-dimensional flows it can be given a precise definition for flows satisfying the conditions governing the semigeostrophic approximation. For this type of balanced flow it is ...

G. J. Shutts

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been

Reiter, Ehud

192

BAD WEATHER? THEN SUE THE WEATHERMAN!  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather forecasts have become demonstrably more accurate in recent decades due to increasingly sophisticated computer technology and models. Yet scientists cannot predict the future with 100% certainty. Relying on inaccurate or inadequate ...

Roberta Klein; Roger A. Pielke Jr.

2002-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Month-Long Pan-Arctic Simulations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated for month-long simulations over a large pan-Arctic model domain. The evaluation of seven different WRF (version 3.1) configurations for four months (January, April, ...

John J. Cassano; Matthew E. Higgins; Mark W. Seefeldt

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model output statistics (MOS) guidance has been the central model postprocessing approach used by the National Weather Service since the 1970s. A recent advancement in the use of MOS is the application of “consensus” MOS (CMOS), an average of MOS ...

Jeffrey A. Baars; Clifford F. Mass

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Diurnal Cycles: Challenges for Weather and Climate Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is an important part of weather and climate models and impacts many applications such as air quality and wind energy. Over the years, the performance in modeling 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed has ...

A. A. M. Holtslag; G. Svensson; P. Baas; S. Basu; B. Beare; A. C. M. Beljaars; F. C. Bosveld; J. Cuxart; J. Lindvall; G. J. Steeneveld; M. Tjernström; B. J. H. Van De Wiel

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

A Dynamically Adapting Weather and Dispersion Model: The Operational Multiscale Environment Model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Operational Multiscale Environment Model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) and its embedded Atmospheric Dispersion Model is a new atmospheric simulation system for real-time hazard prediction, conceived out of a need to advance the state of the ...

David P. Bacon; Nash’at N. Ahmad; Zafer Boybeyi; Thomas J. Dunn; Mary S. Hall; Pius C. S. Lee; R. Ananthakrishna Sarma; Mark D. Turner; Kenneth T. Waight III; Steve H. Young; John W. Zack

2000-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Assimilating Surface Weather Observations from Complex Terrain into a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An anisotropic surface analysis method based on the mother–daughter (MD) approach has been developed to spread valley station observations to grid points in circuitous steep valleys. In this paper, the MD approach is further refined to allow ...

Xingxiu Deng; Roland Stull

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

EPM modeling of a field-scale tritium tracer experiment in fractured, weathered shale  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 2D equivalent porous media (EPM) model was used to simulate transport of tritium for a field-scale tracer experiment in a fractured and highly weathered shale saprolite. The tritium plume was characterized by rapid migration of the leading edge of the plume, slower movement of the center of mass of the tritium pulse and very slow decline of concentrations in the tail of the breakthrough curves. The EPM model successfully described the shape of the plume and the breakthrough curves for a monitoring well 3.7 m downgradient of the injection well using a flow velocity of 0.01 m/day and longitudinal and transverse dispersivity values of 0.8 m. An unusually low ratio of longitudinal and transverse dispersivity was needed to fit the nearly circular shape of the plume, which is believed to be caused by the water-table slope being perpendicular to the orientation of the prominent bedding plane fractures. Simulated values for concentrations in the long tail of the breakthrough curve observed in a downgradient well were especially sensitive to the value of longitudinal dispersivity used. The best-fit simulation, based on data over a 5 year period, was extrapolated to the most recent data point and the simulated concentration was very close to the measured value. Model predictions made with a slightly different value of longitudinal dispersivity resulted in a very large errors at late time, indicating that duration of monitoring data is a critical factor in accurate prediction. The experiment and simulations show that contaminant plumes can persist for long periods of time in fractured porous materials, presumably due to diffusive exchange between the rapidly moving water in the fractures and the relatively immobile pore water in the fine-grained matrix.

McKay, L.D. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences; Stafford, P.L.; Toran, L.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Div.

1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Secular Changes in Solar Magnetic Flux Amplification Factor and Prediction of Space Weather  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing trend is also observed for the solar equatorial rotation (W) which imply possibly a decrease in the efficiency of the solar dynamo during the above period. We could show correlated changes of Af and extreme space weather activity variations near earth since the middle of the 19th century. Indirect solar observations ( solar proton fluence estimates) suggests that the distinct enhancements in extreme space weather activity , Af and W found during sunspot cycles 10 to 15 is probably largest of that kind during the past 400 years. We find that the sunspot activity can reach an upper limit (Rweather conditions is most probable to occur during this cycle. Key words: Flux ...

Girish, T E

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

PREDICTIVE MODELS. Enhanced Oil Recovery Model  

SciTech Connect

PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1 chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2 carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3 in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4 polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5 steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

Ray, R.M. [DOE Bartlesville Energy Technology Technology Center, Bartlesville, OK (United States)

1992-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

A Review of Cloud Modeling in Weather Modification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical modeling of clouds has a history almost as long as the modern-day concepts of the seeding of clouds. The various models and theoretical developments emerging from the model results are reviewed in this paper. Significant advances ...

Harold D. Orville

1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective  

SciTech Connect

Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Corn Yield Prediction Using Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is developed to predict corn yield during the growing season using a plant process model (CERES-Maize), current weather data and climatological data. The procedure is to place the current year's daily weather (temperature and ...

Claude E. Duchon

1986-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Predictability of Precipitation in a Cloud-Resolving Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble methodology is developed and tested to objectively isolate and quantify meso-?-scale predictability limitations in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The methodology involves conducting an ensemble of limited-area simulations with ...

André Walser; Daniel Lüthi; Christoph Schär

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Application of Transilient Turbulence Theory to Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study we show that a unified turbulence parameterization, when divorced from the smoothing procedures needed for numerical stability of the host model, can be implemented in a numerical weather prediction model. Our host model is the 15-...

William H. Raymond; Roland B. Stull

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and ...

Dale Barker; Xiang-Yu Huang; Zhiquan Liu; Tom Auligné; Xin Zhang; Steven Rugg; Raji Ajjaji; Al Bourgeois; John Bray; Yongsheng Chen; Meral Demirtas; Yong-Run Guo; Tom Henderson; Wei Huang; Hui-Chuan Lin; John Michalakes; Syed Rizvi; Xiaoyan Zhang

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

The Excitation of Large-Scale Free Rossby Waves in Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent experimental results indicate that there are serious problems in forecasting planetary scales of motion. In contrast with predictability theory which suggests that the planetary scales are the most predictable, forecast experiments ...

Roger Daley; Joseph Tribbia; David L. Williamson

1981-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

The Entire Weather Archive  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Stroke Length Hurricanes Joining Fog Predicting Snow? Temperature Effecting Dew Point Solar Storms and Earth Weather Sea Fog Formation More Rain at Night than Day Jet Streams...

209

A Real-Time, Mesoscale Numerical Weather-Prediction System Used for Research, Teaching, and Public Service at The Pennsylvania State University  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A mesoscale modeling system is being applied on an experimental basis at The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) for production of real-time, high resolution, numerical weather forecasts for the northeastern United States. The initial ...

Thomas T. Warner; Nelson L. Seaman

1990-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weatherization Assistance Program Quality Work Plan Requirements to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Quality...

211

Training of neural models for predictive control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper emphasises the link between neural model training and its role in model predictive control (MPC) algorithms. This role is of fundamental importance since in MPC at each sampling instant a model is used on-line to calculate predictions of future ... Keywords: Identification, Model predictive control, Neural networks, Optimisation

Maciej ?awry?czuk

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

CONTAM Overview - Weather and Wind  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... weather data is implemented through the use of weather files or ... experiments or atmospheric models, eg, plume or puff dispersion simulation tools. ...

213

A Consensus Model for Seasonal Hurricane Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors apply a procedure called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) for examining the utility of a set of covariates for predicting the distribution of U.S. hurricane counts and demonstrating a consensus model for seasonal prediction. Hurricane ...

Thomas H. Jagger; James B. Elsner

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Model-free Model-fitting and Predictive Distributions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Politis, D.N. (2007a). Model-free vs. model-based volatilityPolitis, D.N. (2007b). Model-free prediction, in Bulletin ofFurthermore, the model-free prediction principle can be

Politis, Dimitris N

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Postprocessing Model-Predicted Rainfall Fields in the Spectral Domain Using Phase Information from Radar Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In an attempt to combine the short-term skill of radar nowcasting and the long-term skill of numerical models, successive 15-min rainfall accumulations obtained from the U.S. national radar composites and predicted by the Weather Research and ...

Basivi Radhakrishna; Isztar Zawadzki; Frédéric Fabry

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Impact of 3DVAR assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar wind data and IMD observation for the prediction of a tropical cyclone  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the impact of the Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) wind data together with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) upper air and surface data for the prediction of a tropical ...

M. Govindankutty; A. Chandrasekar; Devendra Pradhan

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Objectively Determined Fair-Weather CBL Depths in the ARW-WRF Model and Their Comparison to CASES-97 Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

High-resolution 24-h runs of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are used to test eight objective methods for estimating convective boundary layer (CBL) depth h, using four planetary boundary layer schemes: ...

Margaret A. LeMone; Mukul Tewari; Fei Chen; Jimy Dudhia

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use the Jarvis-type stomatal resistance formulations for representing the vegetation transpiration processes. The Jarvis scheme, however, despite its robustness, needs ...

Dev Niyogi; Kiran Alapaty; Sethu Raman; Fei Chen

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Resolved turbulence characteristics in large-eddy simulations nested within mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One-way concurrent nesting within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is examined for conducting large-eddy simulations (LES) nested within mesoscale simulations. Wind speed, spectra, and resolved turbulent stresses and turbulence ...

Jeff Mirocha; Branko Kosovi?; Gokhan Kirkil

220

Determining the optimal spatial distribution of weather station networks for hydrological modelling purposes using RCM datasets: An experimental approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many hydrological studies, the main limiting factor in model performance is the low meteorological data quality. In some cases, no meteorological records even exist. Installing weather stations becomes a necessity in these areas when water ...

Richard Arsenault; François Brissette

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Analysis of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Turbulence Parameterization and Grid Spacing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Advanced Research Model (WRF-ARW) was used to perform idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations, with domains of 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Tests were conducted to determine the sensitivity ...

Kevin A. Hill; Gary M. Lackmann

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part I: Warm Season Results  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The summertime improvement resulting from the operational implementation of a new surface modeling and assimilation strategy into the Canadian regional weather forecasting system is described in this study. The surface processes over land are ...

Stéphane Bélair; Louis-Philippe Crevier; Jocelyn Mailhot; Bernard Bilodeau; Yves Delage

2003-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Using Time-Lagged Ensembles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A time-lagged ensemble forecast system is developed using a set of hourly initialized Rapid Update Cycle model deterministic forecasts. Both the ensemble-mean and probabilistic forecasts from this time-lagged ensemble system present a promising ...

Chungu Lu; Huiling Yuan; Barry E. Schwartz; Stanley G. Benjamin

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

The Madden–Julian Oscillation and Its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study uses numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the ...

Charles Jones; Duane E. Waliser; K. M. Lau; W. Stern

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.

Steenburgh, R A; Millward, G H

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

A predictive model for MSSW student success.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Ph. D. This study tested a hypothetical model for predicting both graduate GPA and graduation of University of Louisville Kent School of Social Work Master… (more)

Napier, Angela Michele

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models  

SciTech Connect

This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their advisor).

Morrison, PI Hugh

2012-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

228

Improving Farmers’ Perception and Use of Climate Predictions in Farming Decisions: A Transition Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite tremendous efforts to improve weather and climate predictions and to inform farmers about the use of such weather products, farmers’ attitudes toward forecast use remain poor and farmer use of forecasts has not increased. This paper ...

Lisa M. PytlikZillig; Qi Hu; Kenneth G. Hubbard; Gary D. Lynne; Roger H. Bruning

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

An Equilibrium Pricing Model for Weather Derivatives in a Multi-commodity Setting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Berkeley, CA, 94720-1777 USA August 20, 2008 Abstract Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand of each industry has retail price, cost, and demand as common factors and these, possibly random, can

Oren, Shmuel S.

231

Statistical Prediction of the Storm Surge Associated with Cool-Weather Storms at the Battery, New York  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The winter and early spring weather in the New York City metropolitan region is highly influenced by extratropical storm systems, and the storm surge associated with these systems is one of the main factors contributing to inundation of coastal ...

H. Salmun; A. Molod; K. Wisniewska; F. S. Buonaiuto

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Prediction of Landfalling Hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and ...

Christopher Davis; Wei Wang; Shuyi S. Chen; Yongsheng Chen; Kristen Corbosiero; Mark DeMaria; Jimy Dudhia; Greg Holland; Joe Klemp; John Michalakes; Heather Reeves; Richard Rotunno; Chris Snyder; Qingnong Xiao

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

A Simple Model for Coastal Sea Level Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Reliable forecasting of wind-forced coastal sea level on the synoptic scale is available for most of the coastal areas of the United States through the National Weather Service Extratropical Storm Surge Model (ESSM). However, in many coastal ...

Charles E. Tilburg; Richard W. Garvine

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Comparison of the prediction accuracy of daily and monthly regression models for energy consumption in commercial buildings  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The measured energy savings from retrofits in commercial buildings are generally determined as the difference between the energy consumption predicted using a baseline model and the measured energy consumption during the post retrofit period. Most baseline models are developed by regressing the daily energy consumption versus the daily average temperature (daily models) or by regressing the monthly energy consumption versus the monthly average temperature (monthly models). Since the post-retrofit weather is generally different from the weather used for model development, the prediction error of the baseline model may be different from the fitting error. Daily and monthly baseline models were developed for a midsize commercial building with (i) dual-duct CAV and VAV systems, (ii) office and university occupancy schedules, and (iii) different operating practices using the weather of a mild weather year. The prediction errors were identified as the difference between the energy use predicted by the regression models and the values simulated by a calibrated simulation program when both models use weather from a year very different from the weather year used to develop the regression model. The major results are summarized below: 1. When the AHUs operate 24 hours per day, annual energy prediction errors of daily regression models were found to be less than 1.4%. The errors of monthly regression models were found to be in the same range as the error of the daily models. 2. When the AHUs were shut down during unoccupied periods, annual prediction errors for both daily and monthly regression models were as high as 15%. However, the prediction error of daily regression models can be decreased to a range of 2% to 3% if the daily average energy consumption is regressed versus the average temperature during the operation period. Based on these findings, we suggest use of daily or monthly regression models when the AHUs are operated 24 hours per day. When shut-down is performed during unoccupied hours, daily energy consumption should be regressed versus the average ambient temperature during operating hours to develop the baseline model.

Wang, Jinrong

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weatherization Assistance Program to someone by E-mail Weatherization Assistance Program to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program Weatherization Services

236

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Apply Apply for Weatherization Assistance to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization Assistance on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program Weatherization Services

237

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Services to someone by E-mail Services to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Services on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program Weatherization Services History Goals & Metrics Allocation Formula Apply for Weatherization Assistance WAP - Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Grants

238

Weather Classification Using Passive Acoustic Drifters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather observations are needed in remote oceanic regions to support numerical weather forecast models, to provide surface truth for satellite sensors, and to help understand global weather patterns. An acoustic mini-drifting buoy using no moving ...

Jeffrey A. Nystuen; Harry D. Selsor

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Predicting software bugs using ARIMA model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The number of software products available in market is increasing rapidly. Many a time, multiple companies develop software products of similar functionalities. Thus the competition among those owning companies is becoming tougher every day. Moreover, ... Keywords: ARIMA models, evaluation approach, information theory, prediction models

Lisham L. Singh; Al Muhsen Abbas; Flaih Ahmad; Srinivasan Ramaswamy

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Space Weather 101  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the basic physical concepts associated with space weather that pertain to the effects on high-voltage power transmission systems. Space weather is an extremely complex and multi-faceted phenomenon. To focus on power grid–related effects, the report addresses coronal mass ejections, which are known to be the most important driver of large geomagnetically induced currents, and describes ongoing research that is being conducted to better understand, predict, and mitigate the ...

2012-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Prediction of Magnetic Storms by Nonlinear Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The strong correlation between magnetic storms and southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is well known from linear prediction filter studies using the Dst and IMF data. However, the linear filters change significantly from one storm to another and thus are limited in their predicting ability. Previous studies have indicated nonlinearity in the magnetospheric response as the ring current decay rate varies with the Dst value during storms. We present in this letter nonlinear models for the evolution of the Dst based on the OMNI database for 1964-1990. When solar wind data are available in advance, the evolution of storms can be predicted from the Dst and IMF data. Solar wind data, however, are not available most of the time or are available typically an hour or less in advance. Therefore, we have developed nonlinear predictive models based on the Dst data alone. In the absence of solar wind data, these models cannot predict the storm onset, but can predict the storm evolution, an...

J. A. Valdivia; A. S. Sharma; K. Papadopoulos

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Stimulation Prediction Models | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Stimulation Prediction Models Stimulation Prediction Models Jump to: navigation, search Geothermal ARRA Funded Projects for Stimulation Prediction Models Loading map... {"format":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"limit":200,"offset":0,"link":"all","sort":[""],"order":[],"headers":"show","mainlabel":"","intro":"","outro":"","searchlabel":"\u2026 further results","default":"","geoservice":"google","zoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","forceshow":true,"showtitle":true,"hidenamespace":false,"template":false,"title":"","label":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"locations":[{"text":"

243

Model Predictive Control of Thermal Energy Storage in Building...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Model Predictive Control of Thermal Energy Storage in Building Cooling Systems Title Model Predictive Control of Thermal Energy Storage in Building Cooling Systems Publication Type...

244

Optimal Sites for Supplementary Weather Observations: Simulation with a Small Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Anticipating the opportunity to make supplementary observations at locations that can depend upon the current weather situation, the question is posed as to what strategy should be adopted to select the locations, if the greatest improvement in ...

Edward N. Lorenz; Kerry A. Emanuel

1998-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Model-Driven, Assertion-Based Generation of Multimedia Weather Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As gridded forecasts are becoming a common source of weather data, efforts are being made to automatically produce displays for various categories of decision makers such as emergency managers and road traffic officers. This paper proposes a new ...

Stephan Kerpedjiev

1995-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

to do just that. "We're using state-of-the-art methods in data mining and high performance computing to locate and quantify extreme weather phenomena in the very large datasets...

247

Modeling Occurrences of Non-VFR Weather: A Case Study for Design of Flight Instruction Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Objective methods in which climatology is considered are needed in the design of flight instruction programs. Weather conditions less than the minimum (LM) thresholds designated for Minimum Instructional Visual Flight Rules (MIVFR) were defined ...

Thomas Q. Carney; Robert F. Dale

1981-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Weather Superstitions  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

of Cook County George W. Dunne, President Roland F. Eisenbeis, Supt. of Conservation WEATHER SUPERSTITIONS Charles Dudley Warner, not Mark Twain, made the famous wisecrack --...

249

Weather Forecasts by the WRF-ARW Model with the GSI Data Assimilation System in the Complex Terrain Areas of Southwest Asia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper will first describe the forecasting errors encountered from running the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model; ARW) in the complex terrain of ...

J. Xu; S. Rugg; L. Byerle; Z. Liu

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Short-Term Ice Accretion Forecasts for Electric Utilities Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and a Modified Precipitation-Type Algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to provide 6–12-h forecasts of the necessary input parameters to a separate algorithm that determines the most likely precipitation type at each model grid point. In instances where ...

Arthur T. DeGaetano; Brian N. Belcher; Pamela L. Spier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Information Resources Information Resources Site Map Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: National Weatherization Training Portal on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental

252

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Innovation Pilot Program to someone by E-mail Innovation Pilot Program to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program

253

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula on

254

Combining Modeling and Gaming for Predictive Analytics  

SciTech Connect

Many of our most significant challenges involve people. While human behavior has long been studied, there are recent advances in computational modeling of human behavior. With advances in computational capabilities come increases in the volume and complexity of data that humans must understand in order to make sense of and capitalize on these modeling advances. Ultimately, models represent an encapsulation of human knowledge. One inherent challenge in modeling is efficient and accurate transfer of knowledge from humans to models, and subsequent retrieval. The simulated real-world environment of games presents one avenue for these knowledge transfers. In this paper we describe our approach of combining modeling and gaming disciplines to develop predictive capabilities, using formal models to inform game development, and using games to provide data for modeling.

Riensche, Roderick M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2012-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

255

Developing hourly weather data for locations having only daily weather data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology was developed to modify an hourly TMY weather tape to be representative of a location for which only average daily weather parameters were avilable. Typical hourly and daily variations in solar flux, and other parameters, were needed to properly exercise a computer model to predict the transient performance of a solar controlled greenhouse being designed for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The starting point was a TMY tape for Yuma, Arizona, since the design temperatures for summer and winter are nearly identical for Yuma and Riyadh. After comparing six of the most important weather variables, the hourly values on the Yuma tape were individually adjusted to give the same overall daily average conditions as existed in the long-term Riyadh data. Finally, a statistical analysis was used to confirm quantitatively that the daily variations between the long term average values for Riyadh and the modified TMY weather tape for Yuma matched satisfactorily.

Talbert, S.G.; Herold, K.E.; Jakob, F.E.; Lundstrom, D.K.

1983-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Predictive modeling for collections of accounts receivable  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is commonly agreed that accounts receivable (AR) can be a source of financial difficulty for firms when they are not efficiently managed and are underperforming. Experience across multiple industries shows that effective management of AR and overall ... Keywords: accounts receivable, invoice to cash, knowledge discovery, order to cash, payment collection, predictive modeling

Sai Zeng; Ioana Boier-Martin; Prem Melville; Conrad Murphy; Christian A. Lang

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Randomized Model Predictive Control for HVAC Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems play a fundamental role in maintaining acceptable thermal comfort and Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) levels, essentials for occupants well-being. Since performing this task implies high energy requirements, ... Keywords: Copulas, Learning, Randomized Model Predictive Control, Smart Buildings, Sustainable Control Systems

Alessandra Parisio, Damiano Varagnolo, Daniel Risberg, Giorgio Pattarello, Marco Molinari, Karl H. Johansson

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Comparing cost prediction models by resampling techniques  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accurate software cost prediction is a research topic that has attracted much of the interest of the software engineering community during the latest decades. A large part of the research efforts involves the development of statistical models based ... Keywords: Accuracy measure, Bootstrap, Confidence interval, Permutation test, Software cost estimation

Nikolaos Mittas; Lefteris Angelis

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Weatherization...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

see their annual energy bills reduced by an average of about 437, depending on fuel prices. Because the energy improvements that make up weatherization services are long...

260

The GFDL Hurricane Prediction System and Its Performance in the 1995 Hurricane Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Prediction System was adopted by the U.S. National Weather Service as an operational hurricane prediction model in the 1995 hurricane season. The framework of the prediction model is ...

Yoshio Kurihara; Robert E. Tuleya; Morris A. Bender

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting  

SciTech Connect

The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Transition and Equilibration of Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flow in One-Way Nested Large-Eddy Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model permits finescale large-eddy simulations (LES) to be nested within coarser simulations, an approach that can generate more accurate turbulence statistics and improve other aspects of simulated flows. ...

Jeff Mirocha; Gokhan Kirkil; Elie Bou-Zeid; Fotini Katopodes Chow; Branko Kosovi?

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

An Objective Methodology for Configuring and Down-Selecting an NWP Ensemble for Low-Level Wind Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model predictions are used for a variety of forecasting applications. Such ensembles quantify the uncertainty of the prediction because the spread in the ensemble predictions is correlated to ...

Jared A. Lee; Walter C. Kolczynski; Tyler C. McCandless; Sue Ellen Haupt

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

New model accurately predicts reformate composition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although naphtha reforming is a well-known process, the evolution of catalyst formulation, as well as new trends in gasoline specifications, have led to rapid evolution of the process, including: reactor design, regeneration mode, and operating conditions. Mathematical modeling of the reforming process is an increasingly important tool. It is fundamental to the proper design of new reactors and revamp of existing ones. Modeling can be used to optimize operating conditions, analyze the effects of process variables, and enhance unit performance. Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo has developed a model of the catalytic reforming process that accurately predicts reformate composition at the higher-severity conditions at which new reformers are being designed. The new AA model is more accurate than previous proposals because it takes into account the effects of temperature and pressure on the rate constants of each chemical reaction.

Ancheyta-Juarez, J.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E. (Inst. Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico City (Mexico))

1994-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

266

Extension of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks to General Weather Statistics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The long-lead monthly and seasonal forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center literally pertain only to average temperature and total precipitation outcomes, but implicitly contain information regarding other quantities that are correlated ...

W. M. Briggs; D. S. Wilks

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Nonlinear model predictive control of a reactive distillation column.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an optimal-control based method to select control inputs by minimizing the predicted error from setpoint for the future. Industrially popular… (more)

Kawathekar, Rohit

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Bootstrapping to Assess and Improve Atmospheric Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bootstrapping is a simple technique typically used to assess accuracy of estimates of model parameters by using simple plug-in principles and replacing sometimes unwieldy theory by computer simulation. Common uses include variance estimation and confidence ... Keywords: CART, bootstrap, classification, hurricanes, instability, supervised learning, weather data

J. Sunil Rao

2000-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Model Predictive Control with Repeated Model Fitting for Ramp Metering  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Model Predictive Control with Repeated Model Fitting for Ramp Metering Tom Bellemans, Bart De Schutter, Bart De Moor Abstract--- Ramp metering is a dynamic traffic control measure that has often shown to be very effective. There are several possible methods to determine appropriate ramp metering signals

270

Model predictive control of a Kaibel distillation column.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? Model predictive control (MPC) of a Kaibel distillation column is the main focus of this thesis. A model description together with a model extension… (more)

Kvernland, Martin Krister

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems Geothermal Project Jump to: navigation, search Last modified on July 22, 2011. Project Title Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems Project Type / Topic 1 Recovery Act: Enhanced Geothermal Systems Component Research and Development/Analysis Project Type / Topic 2 Stimulation Prediction Models Project Description The proposal is in response to DOE FOA DE-PS36-08GO99018/DE-FOA-0000075, specifically: the Topic Area: Stimulation Prediction Models - "To develop and validate models to predict a reservoir's response to stimulation and/or to quantitatively compare existing stimulation prediction models," and the Target Specification: "Development of stimulation prediction models capable of accurately predicting the location, spacing, orientation, and flow properties of created fractures."

272

The Influence of Carl—Gustaf Rossby on Mesoscale Weather Prediction and an Outlook for the Future  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article presents an overview of the advances in mesoscale prediction from the time of Rossby to the present and an outlook for the future. The first part traces the evolution of research and forecasting based upon the conservation of certain ...

Robert Gall; Melvyn Shapiro

2000-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Marine Observations of Old Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather observations are vital for climate change monitoring and prediction. For the world's oceans, there are many meteorological and oceanographic observations available back to the mid-twentieth century, but coverage is limited in earlier ...

Philip Brohan; Rob Allan; J. Eric Freeman; Anne M. Waple; Dennis Wheeler; Clive Wilkinson; Scott Woodruff

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Improving Short-Term Numerical Weather Prediction in the California Coastal Zone by Dynamic Initialization of the Marine Boundary Layer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Few data are available over the world’s oceans to characterize the initial atmospheric state in numerical models. Objective analysis in these regions is largely based on forecast fields obtained from a global model and used as the background (“...

S. Mark Leidner; David R. Stauffer; Nelson L. Seaman

2001-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Predictive modelling of boiler fouling. Final report.  

SciTech Connect

A spectral element method embodying Large Eddy Simulation based on Re- Normalization Group theory for simulating Sub Grid Scale viscosity was chosen for this work. This method is embodied in a computer code called NEKTON. NEKTON solves the unsteady, 2D or 3D,incompressible Navier Stokes equations by a spectral element method. The code was later extended to include the variable density and multiple reactive species effects at low Mach numbers, and to compute transport of large particles governed by inertia. Transport of small particles is computed by treating them as trace species. Code computations were performed for a number of test conditions typical of flow past a deep tube bank in a boiler. Results indicate qualitatively correct behavior. Predictions of deposition rates and deposit shape evolution also show correct qualitative behavior. These simulations are the first attempts to compute flow field results at realistic flow Reynolds numbers of the order of 10{sup 4}. Code validation was not done; comparison with experiment also could not be made as many phenomenological model parameters, e.g., sticking or erosion probabilities and their dependence on experimental conditions were not known. The predictions however demonstrate the capability to predict fouling from first principles. Further work is needed: use of large or massively parallel machine; code validation; parametric studies, etc.

Chatwani, A

1990-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

276

LLNL-TR-411072 A Predictive Model  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

072 072 A Predictive Model of Fragmentation using Adaptive Mesh Refinement and a Hierarchical Material Model A. E. Koniges, N. D. Masters, A. C. Fisher, R. W. Anderson, D. C. Eder, D. Benson, T. B. Kaiser, B. T. Gunney, P. Wang, B. R. Maddox, J. F. Hansen, D. H. Kalantar, P. Dixit, H. Jarmakani, M. A. Meyers March 5, 2009 -2- Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.

277

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding model error in state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and representing its impact on flow-dependent predictability remains a complex and mostly unsolved problem. Here, a spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter ...

J. Berner; G. J. Shutts; M. Leutbecher; T. N. Palmer

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Skill of Medium-Range Hydrological Ensemble Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian ...

Emmanuel Roulin; Stéphane Vannitsem

2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

A Tutorial on Lateral Boundary Conditions as a Basic and Potentially Serious Limitation to Regional Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Limited-area models (LAMs) are presently used for a wide variety of research and operational forecasting applications, and such use will likely expand greatly as the rapid increase in the performance/price ratio of computers and workstations ...

Thomas T. Warner; Ralph A. Peterson; Russell E. Treadon

1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Experiences with collaborative, distributed predictive human performance modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although predictive human performance modeling has been researched for 30 years in HCI, to our knowledge modeling has been conducted as a solitary task of one modeler or, occasionally, two modelers working in tight face-to-face collaboration. In contrast, ... Keywords: cogtool, efficiency, klm, predictive human performance modeling, usability evaluation

Bonnie John; Sonal Starr; Brian Utesch

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Societal and Economic Research and Applications For Weather Forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite the meteorological community's long-term interest in weather–society interactions, efforts to understand socioeconomic aspects of weather prediction and to incorporate this knowledge into the weather prediction system have yet to reach ...

Rebecca E. Morss; Jeffrey K. Lazo; Barbara G. Brown; Harold E. Brooks; Philip T. Ganderton; Brian N. Mills

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Local and Mesoscale Impacts of Wind Farms as Parameterized in a Mesoscale NWP Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new wind farm parameterization has been developed for the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The effects of wind turbines are represented by imposing a momentum sink on the mean flow; ...

Anna C. Fitch; Joseph B. Olson; Julie K. Lundquist; Jimy Dudhia; Alok K. Gupta; John Michalakes; Idar Barstad

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

A Predictive Model of Geosynchronous Magnetopause Crossings  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We have developed a model predicting whether or not the magnetopause crosses geosynchronous orbit at given location for given solar wind pressure Psw, Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and geomagnetic conditions characterized by 1-min SYM-H index. The model is based on more than 300 geosynchronous magnetopause crossings (GMCs) and about 6000 minutes when geosynchronous satellites of GOES and LANL series are located in the magnetosheath (so-called MSh intervals) in 1994 to 2001. Minimizing of the Psw required for GMCs and MSh intervals at various locations, Bz and SYM-H allows describing both an effect of magnetopause dawn-dusk asymmetry and saturation of Bz influence for very large southward IMF. The asymmetry is strong for large negative Bz and almost disappears when Bz is positive. We found that the larger amplitude of negative SYM-H the lower solar wind pressure is required for GMCs. We attribute this effect to a depletion of the dayside magnetic field by a storm-time intensification of t...

Dmitriev, A; Chao, J -K

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Parameterization of Runway Visual Range as a Function of Visibility: Implications for Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A parameterization of runway visual range (RVR) has been developed using relevant meteorological parameters such as visibility (Vk), relative humidity (RH), temperature (T), precipitation intensity (PI), and precipitation type (PT) measured in ...

Faisal S. Boudala; George A. Isaac; Robert W. Crawford; Janti Reid

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Improved Retrieval of Integrated Water Vapor from Water Vapor Radiometer Measurements Using Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Water vapor radiometer (WVR) retrieval algorithms require a priori information on atmospheric conditions along the line of sight of the radiometer in order to derive opacities from observed brightness temperatures. This paper's focus is the mean ...

Steven R. Chiswell; Steven Businger; Michael Bevis; Fredrick Solheim; Christian Rocken; Randolph Ware

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

The Impact of Sea Spray Evaporation in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Strong winds above the sea lead to large amounts of spray in the lowest part of the boundary layer. Through their evaporation, spray droplets influence the exchange of sensible and latent heat between sea and air. In this study, the impact of ...

Jan F. Meirink; Vladimir K. Makin

2001-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Information from Radar and Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The benefits of short-term (1–6 h), distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts (DQPFs) are well known. However, this area is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging in hydrometeorology. Previous studies suggest that the “state of the ...

Auroop R. Ganguly; Rafael L. Bras

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Comparative Analysis of Conformal Mappings Used in Limited-Area Models of Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Conformal separable projections from a sphere onto a plane are introduced to generalize the concept of conformal stereographic, conic, and cylindrical projections. The concept of equivalence of projections is used for partition of all considered ...

Andrei Bourchtein; Ludmila Bourchtein

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Weather Extremes  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Extremes Extremes Nature Bulletin No. 45 December 15, 1945 Forest Preserve District of Cook County Clayton F. Smith, President Roberts Mann, Superintendent of Conservation WEATHER EXTREMES Chicago lies in a temperate zone. We are fortunate. The lowest temperature recorded here since the establishment of the Weather Bureau in 1870 was -- 23 F on Dec. 24, 1872. The lowest records elsewhere in the United States are--66 F at Riverside Ranger Station, Yellowstone Park, Wyoming, on Feb. 9, 1933; and -- 78 F at Fort Yukon, Alaska, on Jan. 14, 1934. The lowest record anywhere on earth is 90 F at Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Feb. 5 and 7, 1892. The greatest snowfall recorded in Chicago in one 24-hour period was 14.9 inches on Jan. 30, 1939; but 19.2 inches fell between 1:10 a.m. on March 24 and 8:33 p.m. on March 26, 1930.

291

Computationally efficient nonlinear predictive control based on neural Wiener models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a computationally efficient nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) algorithm based on neural Wiener models and its application. The model contains a linear dynamic part in series with a steady-state nonlinear part which is realised ... Keywords: Linearisation, Model predictive control, Neural networks, Optimisation, Process control, Wiener systems

Maciej ?awry?czuk

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Realizations of Daily Weather in Forecast Seasonal Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Stochastic daily weather time series models (?“weather generators”?) are parameterized consistent with both local climate and probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Both single-station weather generators, and spatial networks of coherently operating ...

D. S. Wilks

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

An Improved Modeling Scheme for Freezing Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To improve forecasts of various weather elements (snow, rain, and freezing precipitation) in numerical weather prediction models, a new mixed-phase cloud scheme has been developed. The scheme is based on a single prognostic equation for total ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer

2000-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Hurricane Track Prediction Using a Statistical Ensemble of Numerical Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new statistical ensemble prediction system for tropical cyclone tracks is presented. The system is based on a statistical analysis of the annual performance of numerical track prediction models, assuming that their position errors are ...

Harry C. Weber

2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

A Beta Regression Model for Improved Solar Radiation Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Predicting global solar radiation is an integral part of much environmental modeling. There are several approaches for predicting global solar radiation at a site where no instrumentation exists. One popular approach uses the difference between ...

Randall Mullen; Lucy Marshall; Brian McGlynn

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

A beta regression model for improved solar radiation predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Predicting global solar radiation is an integral part of much environmental modeling. There are several approaches for predicting global solar radiation at a site where no instrumentation exists. One popular approach uses the difference between ...

Randall Mullen; Lucy Marshall; Brian McGlynn

297

A Coupled Soil Moisture and Surface Temperature Prediction Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A model for soil moisture and soil surface temperature prediction for bare soil is considered in this paper. In describing evaporation rate. soil structure and moisture were taken into account as much as possible. Soil moisture prediction was ...

F. Ács; D. T. Mihailovi?; B. Rajkovi?

1991-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

A Nonlinear Artificial Intelligence Ensemble Prediction Model for Typhoon Intensity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new nonlinear artificial intelligence ensemble prediction (NAIEP) model has been developed for predicting typhoon intensity based on multiple neural networks with the same expected output and using an evolutionary genetic algorithm (GA). The ...

Long Jin; Cai Yao; Xiao-Yan Huang

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

A System Simulation Approach to Ensemble Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For many aspects of numerical weather prediction it is important to have good error statistics. Here one can think of applications as diverse as data assimilation, model improvement, and medium-range forecasting. In this paper, a method for ...

P. L. Houtekamer; Louis Lefaivre; Jacques Derome; Harold Ritchie; Herschel L. Mitchell

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Enhanced oil recovery data base analysis by simplified predictive models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Department of Energy, Bartlesville Energy Technology Center (BETC), has been developing computerized data bases and simplified predictive models to be used to predict enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential in the U.S. The development phase of this work is nearing completion whereupon the models and data bases will be made available to the public. This paper describes the overall development phase for the models and data bases with analyses of selected EOR projects using the predictive models. Examples of model outputs are discussed and brief descriptions of the predictive algorithms are given.

Ray, R.M.; Wesson, T.C.

1982-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Building Energy Software Tools Directory : Weather Tool  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Tool Back to Tool Screenshot for Weather Tool. Screenshot for Weather Tool. Screenshot for Weather...

302

Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The reduction of systematic errors is a continuing challenge for model development. Feedbacks and compensating errors in climate models often make finding the source of a systematic error difficult. In this paper, it is shown how model ...

G. M. Martin; S. F. Milton; C. A. Senior; M. E. Brooks; S. Ineson; T. Reichler; J. Kim

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Brief A probabilistically constrained model predictive controller  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We propose a novel control algorithm, probabilistically constrained predictive control, to deal with the uncertainties of system disturbances. The output is to be controlled in the constrained range with a desired probability. Under the assumption of ... Keywords: Multivariate normal distribution, Nonlinear programming, Predictive control, Probabilistic constraints, Uncertainty

Pu Li; Moritz Wendt; GüNter Wozny

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Hydraulic design model of underground bioretention system: a source control measure for wet weather urban stormwater management.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The conventional practices of urbanization, land use strategies and stormwater management are considerably increasing the risk of wet weather flooding, downstream erosion and water pollution.… (more)

Uddin, Zulhash

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

A Comparison of Experimental Data and Model Predictions with ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Comparison of Experimental Data and Model Predictions with Constitutive Laws ... Friction Stir Welding and Processing of Advanced Materials for Coal and  ...

306

Evaluation of WRF-predicted near-hub-height winds and ramp events over a Pacific Northwest site with complex terrain  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One challenge with wind power forecasts is the accurate prediction of rapid changes in wind speed (ramps). To evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s ability to predict such events, model simulations, conducted over an area of ...

Qing Yang; Larry K. Berg; Mikhail Pekour; Jerome D. Fast; Rob K. Newsom; Mark Stoelinga; Catherine Finley

307

Predictability of Extratropical Cyclones: The Influence of Initial Condition and Model Uncertainties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Errors in numerical weather forecasts can be attributed to two causes: deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. Understanding of the characteristics of the growth of forecast spread related to model uncertainty is ...

Hongyan Zhu; Alan Thorpe

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Prediction of convective morphology in near-cloud permitting WRF model simulations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s ability to forecast convective morphological evolution is examined for 37 convective systems. The simulations used Thompson microphysics with 3-km horizontal grid spacing. Ten convective mode ...

Darren V. Snively; William A. Gallus; Jr.

309

Usefulness of Single Column Model Diagnosis through Short-Term Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Single column models (SCMs) provide an economical framework for developing and diagnosing representations of diabatic processes in weather and climate models. Their economy is achieved at the price of ignoring interactions with the circulation ...

John W. Bergman; Prashant D. Sardeshmukh

2003-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Weather Regimes and Preferred Transition Paths in a Three-Level Quasigeostrophic Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Multiple flow regimes are reexamined in a global, three-level, quasigeostrophic (QG3) model with realistic topography in spherical geometry. This QG3 model, using a T21 triangular truncation in the horizontal, has a fairly realistic climatology ...

D. Kondrashov; K. Ide; M. Ghil

2004-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Using a Business Process Model as a Central Organizing Construct for an Undergraduate Weather Forecasting Course  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the last five years, the author has employed a business process model as a central organizing construct for the senior-level Forecasting Techniques course at Embry- Riddle Aeronautical University's Daytona Beach, Florida, campus. The process model ...

John M. Lanicci

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Parameterization Schemes for Regional Climates of Europe over the Period 1990–95  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to downscale interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data for the climate over Europe for the period 1990–95 with grid spacing of 0.44° for 12 combinations of physical parameterizations. Two ...

P. A. Mooney; F. J. Mulligan; R. Fealy

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

A Linearized Convective Overturning Model for Prediction of Thunderstorm Movement  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A linearized model of convective overturning in shear for prediction of storm propagation is presented. Good correspondence between the model and observation is found for a number of case studies of real storms. Supercell storms, however, are an ...

Adrian Marroquin; David J. Raymond

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Prediction Models for Annual U.S. Hurricane Counts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors build on their efforts to understand and predict coastal hurricane activity by developing statistical seasonal forecast models that can be used operationally. The modeling strategy uses May–June averaged values representing the North ...

James B. Elsner; Thomas H. Jagger

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

An Interpretable Stroke Prediction Model using Rules and Bayesian Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (for example, if high blood ...

Letham, Benjamin

2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

316

Standard Model Predictions for the Muon $(g-2)/2$  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The current status of the Standard Model predictions for the muon anomalous magnetic moment is described. Various contributions expected in the Standard Model are discussed. After the reevaluation of the leading-order hadronic term based on the new \\ep data, the theoretical prediction is more than three standard deviations lower than the experimental value.

S. I. Eidelman

2009-04-21T23:59:59.000Z

317

Power flow management of microgrid networks using model predictive control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, we present a power flow management method for a network of cooperating microgrids within the context of a smart grid by formulating the problem in a model predictive control framework. In order to reliably and economically provide the ... Keywords: Microgrid, Model predictive control, Renewable energy sources, Smart grid, Storage devices

A. Hooshmand; H. A. Malki; J. Mohammadpour

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Web Page Rank Prediction with Markov Models Michalis Vazirgiannis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Web Page Rank Prediction with Markov Models Michalis Vazirgiannis INRIA Futurs Orsay, France a method for predicting the rank- ing position of a Web page. Assuming a set of successive past top-k rankings, we study the evolution of Web pages in terms of ranking trend sequences used for Markov Models

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

319

Multivariable model predictive control for a gas turbine power plant  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this brief, constrained multi variable model predictive control (MPC) strategy is investigated for a GE9001E gas turbine power plant. So the rotor speed and exhaust gas temperature are controlled manipulating the fuel command and compressor inlet ... Keywords: ARX, gas turbine, identification, modeling, multivariable control, power plant, predictive control

Hadi Ghorbani; Ali Ghaffari; Mehdi Rahnama

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

The Operational Global Icosahedral–Hexagonal Gridpoint Model GME: Description and High-Resolution Tests  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has recently developed a new operational global numerical weather prediction model, named GME, based on an almost uniform icosahedral–hexagonal grid. The GME gridpoint approach avoids the ...

Detlev Majewski; Dörte Liermann; Peter Prohl; Bodo Ritter; Michael Buchhold; Thomas Hanisch; Gerhard Paul; Werner Wergen; John Baumgardner

2002-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Global Warming and Extreme Weather  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Warming and Extreme Weather Global Warming and Extreme Weather Speaker(s): Michael Wehner Date: November 28, 2006 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Surabi Menon Extreme weather events can have serious impacts on human and ecological systems. Changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather associated with changes in the mean climate are likely the most serious consequence of human induced global warming. Understanding what the future portends is vital if society hopes to adapt to the very different world that awaits. In this talk, we will exploit simple extreme value theory to make predictions about the late 21st century climate. Current work on the relationship between global warming and the hurricane cycle will also be presented. The bottom line is that events that are considered rare today

323

Evaluation of a Simple Numerical Model as a Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Tool  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the America's Cup race series of 1986–1987, a numerical sea breeze model was used to assist offshore forecasts. The exercise has provided a detailed insight into the extent to which such a model may assist the forecasting process the ...

P. J. Rye

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

A comparison of cloud microphysical quantities with forecasts from cloud prediction models  

SciTech Connect

Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, NCEP) are evaluated using ARM observational data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical quantities, retrieved using a variety of parameterizations. Information gained from this comparison will be utilized during the FASTER project, as models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce fast physical processes detected in the observations. Here the model performance is quantified against the observations through a statistical analysis. Observations from remote sensing instruments (radar, lidar, radiometer and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content, ice effective radius and liquid effective radius. Unfortunately, discrepancies in the derived quantities arise when different retrieval schemes are applied to the observations. The uncertainty inherent in retrieving the microphysical quantities using various retrievals is estimated from the range of output microphysical values. ARM microphysical retrieval schemes (Microbase, Mace) are examined along with the CloudNet retrieval processing of data from the ARM sites for this purpose. Through the interfacing of CloudNet and “ARM” processing schemes an ARMNET product is produced and employed as accepted observations in the assessment of cloud model predictions.

Dunn, M.; Jensen, M.; Hogan, R.; O’Connor, E.; Huang, D.

2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

325

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009’s Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification was performed on ensemble forecasts of 2009 Northern Hemisphere summer tropical cyclones (TCs) from two experimental global numerical weather prediction ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). The first model was a high-resolution ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Jeffrey S. Whitaker; Michael Fiorino; Stanley G. Benjamin

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

TEACHMET: An Expert System for Teaching Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Students or weather forecasting need to learn to identify efficiently the information relevant to the elements they predict. One way students learn these skills is by engaging in discussions of interesting weather situations as they occur. In ...

Nathan M. Reiss; James C. Hofmann

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Trajectory Design and Implementation for Multiple Autonomous Underwater Vehicles Based on Ocean Model Predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Underwater Vehicles Based on Ocean Model Predictions Ryan N.Trajectory Design based on Ocean Model Predictions PredictEffective tracking of ocean features Gather specific in situ

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic Parameterizations in a Numerical Weather Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Parameterizations in numerical models account for unresolved processes. These parameterizations are inherently difficult to construct and as such typically have notable imperfections. One approach to account for this uncertainty is through ...

Yong Song; Christopher K. Wikle; Christopher J. Anderson; Steven A. Lack

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Automatic generation of weather forecast texts using comprehensive probabilistic generation-space models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two important recent trends in natural language generation are (i) probabilistic techniques and (ii) comprehensive approaches that move away from traditional strictly modular and sequential models. This paper reports experiments in which pCRU ...

Anja Belz

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

A Statistical Forecast Model of Weather-Related Damage to a Major Electric Utility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized linear model (GLM) has been developed to relate meteorological conditions to damages incurred by the outdoor electrical equipment of Public Service Electric and Gas, the largest public utility in New Jersey. Utilizing a perfect-...

Brian J. Cerruti; Steven G. Decker

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Classification of Precipitation Types during Transitional Winter Weather Using the RUC Model and Polarimetric Radar Retrievals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new hydrometeor classification algorithm that combines thermodynamic output from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model with polarimetric radar observations is introduced. The algorithm improves upon existing classification techniques that rely ...

Terry J. Schuur; Hyang-Suk Park; Alexander V. Ryzhkov; Heather D. Reeves

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Minding the Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather salience is a construct that pertains to the psychological value, significance, and attunement that people have for the weather and its changes. In this article the author describes the construct of weather salience and a measure that was ...

Alan E. Stewart

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

NEWTON's Weather Videos  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

day. Learn about all sorts of weather phenomena or just get a video of your daily forecast. NOAA Weather Partner's Videos NOAA Weather Partner's Videos The National Oceanic and...

334

Comparative Analysis of the Local Observation-Based (LOB) Method and the Nonparametric Regression-Based Method for Gridded Bias Correction in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The comparative analysis of three methods for objective grid-based bias removal in mesoscale numerical weather prediction models is considered. The first technique is the local observation-based (LOB) method that extends further the approaches of ...

Yulia R. Gel

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

NEWTON's Weather Links  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

References Do you have a great weather reference link? Please click our Ideas page. Featured Reference Links: NOAA Teachers Support Page NOAA Teachers Support Page for Weather and...

336

Weather: Project homepage  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

data with weather measurement instruments, interpreting the data, and forecasting weather conditions. Students use the Internet as a tool to research information, share...

337

Analytical Modeling and Performance Prediction of Remanufactured ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The CLP tool assists in remanufacturing of high value, high demand rotorcraft, automotive and wind turbine gears. This paper will summarize the CLP models ...

338

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum ...

J. A. Bruhn; W. E. Fry; G. W. Fick

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Evaluation of WRF-Predicted Near-Hub-Height Winds and Ramp Events over a Pacific Northwest Site with Complex Terrain  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One challenge with wind-power forecasts is the accurate prediction of rapid changes in wind speed (ramps). To evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's ability to predict such events, model simulations, conducted over an area of ...

Qing Yang; Larry K. Berg; Mikhail Pekour; Jerome D. Fast; Rob K. Newsom; Mark Stoelinga; Catherine Finley

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

A predictive ocean oil spill model  

SciTech Connect

This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Initially, the project focused on creating an ocean oil spill model and working with the major oil companies to compare their data with the Los Alamos global ocean model. As a result of this initial effort, Los Alamos worked closely with the Eddy Joint Industry Project (EJIP), a consortium oil and gas producing companies in the US. The central theme of the project was to use output produced from LANL`s global ocean model to look in detail at ocean currents in selected geographic areas of the world of interest to consortium members. Once ocean currents are well understood this information could be used to create oil spill models, improve offshore exploration and drilling equipment, and aid in the design of semi-permanent offshore production platforms.

Sanderson, J.; Barnette, D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Papodopoulos, P. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Schaudt, K. [Marathon Oil Co., Littleton, CO (United States); Szabo, D. [Mobil Research and Development Corp., Dallas, TX (United States)

1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model Agency/Company /Organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Topics: Analysis Tools Complexity/Ease of Use: Not Available Website: dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/29790 Cost: Free Related Tools IGES GHG Calculator For Solid Waste Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP) Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model ... further results The part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents human systems; a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model

342

LHC diphoton Higgs signal predicted by little Higgs models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Little Higgs theory naturally predicts a light Higgs boson whose most important discovery channel at the LHC is the diphoton signal pp{yields}h{yields}{gamma}{gamma}. In this work, we perform a comparative study for this signal in some typical little Higgs models, namely, the littlest Higgs model, two littlest Higgs models with T-parity (named LHT-I and LHT-II), and the simplest little Higgs models. We find that compared with the standard model prediction, the diphoton signal rate is always suppressed and the suppression extent can be quite different for different models. The suppression is mild (Higgs boson predicted by the little Higgs theory through the diphoton channel at the LHC will be more difficult than discovering the standard model Higgs boson.

Wang Lei [Department of Physics, Yantai University, Yantai 264005 (China); Yang Jinmin [Key Laboratory of Frontiers in Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100190 (China)

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Simulating the IHOP_2002 Fair-Weather CBL with the WRF-ARW–Noah Modeling System. Part I: Surface Fluxes and CBL Structure and Evolution along the Eastern Track  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fair-weather data from the May–June 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) 46-km eastern flight track in southeast Kansas are compared to simulations using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to ...

Margaret A. LeMone; Fei Chen; Mukul Tewari; Jimy Dudhia; Bart Geerts; Qun Miao; Richard L. Coulter; Robert L. Grossman

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Influence Of Three Dynamic Predictive Clothing Insulation Models On Building Energy Use, HVAC Sizing And Thermal Comfort  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weather, Clothing and Thermal Adaptation to Indoor Climate,of Determining Acceptable Thermal Conditions, Building andan Adaptive Model of Thermal Comfort and Preference, Final

Schiavon, Stefano; Lee, Kwang Ho

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Preliminary results of model predictive control of shading systems (WIP)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Shades in buildings are widely installed and are an effective technique for managing solar gains and occupant comfort. A model of a typical office space located in Ottawa, Ontario has been created and the model was developed for analysis under variable ... Keywords: energy management system, model predictive control, reactive control, shades

Brent Huchuk; William O'Brien; Cynthia A. Cruickshank

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

A Model to Predict the Probability of Precipitation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A model to predict the probability of a specific amount of accumulated precipitation at a point in an area of extended convective precipitation has been developed. The model has been used in conjunction with a large-scale numerical forecast model ...

Ulla Hammarstrand

1980-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Settlement Prediction, Gas Modeling and Slope Stability Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Settlement Prediction, Gas Modeling and Slope Stability Analysis in Coll Cardús Landfill Li Yu using mechanical models Simulation of gas generation, transport and extraction in MSW landfill 1 models Simulation of gas generation, transport and extraction in MSW landfill 1) Analytical solution

Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat

348

NETL: IEP - Air Quality Research: Predictive Modeling and Evaluation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Predictive Modeling and Evaluation Predictive Modeling and Evaluation Predictive Modeling and Evaluation Map Click on a Project Name to Get More Information It is likely that most or all State Implementation Plans pertaining to PM2.5 will be developed with the aid of some type of atmospheric modeling to predict the reductions in PM2.5 attainable via reductions in power plant emissions. The accuracy of such predictions depends on how accurately the models represent the actual emissions and atmospheric chemistry/transport phenomena. Modeling studies supported by the NETL fine PM program include: (1) receptor-based (source apportionment) modeling pertinent to electric power sources; (2) model evaluation using ambient PM mass measurements; (3) methods for estimating the lifetime and transport distances of primary and secondary PM; (4) quantifying the relationships between PM (nitric acid and sulfate) and NOx and SO2 emissions in the modeling domain; and (5) quantifying the contribution of primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from power sources to observed organic PM.

349

Hurricane Track Prediction with a New Barotropic Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new barotropic prediction system for the tracks of tropical cyclones is presented. The system (referred to as WBAR) consists of an initialization procedure, a vortex enhancement scheme, and a shallow water model, formulated in a geographical ...

Harry C. Weber

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Nonlinear predictive models: overview and possibilities in speaker recognition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we give a brief overview of speaker recognition with special emphasis on nonlinear predictive models, based on neural nets. Main challenges and possibilities for nonlinear feature extraction are described, and experimental results of several ...

Marcos Faundez-Zanuy; Mohamed Chetouani

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse Model Predictions of the PDO  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A linear inverse model (LIM) is used to predict Pacific (30°S–60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), including the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The LIM is derived from the observed simultaneous and lagged covariance statistics of ...

Michael A. Alexander; Ludmila Matrosova; Cécile Penland; James D. Scott; Ping Chang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Predictability Associated with Nonlinear Regimes in an Atmospheric Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Atmospheric regimes are midlatitude flow patterns that persist for periods of time exceeding a few days. Here, the authors analyzed the output of an idealized atmospheric model (QG3) to examine the relationship between regimes and predictability.

John M. Peters; Sergey Kravtsov; Nicholas T. Schwartz

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Performance and prediction: bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by ...

Guy Haworth; Ken Regan; Giuseppe Di Fatta

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Extended-Range Atmospheric Prediction and the Lorenz Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The physical basis for extended-range prediction is explored using the famous three-component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic extratropical circulation, and extended by coupling to a linear oscillator ...

T. N. Palmer

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Playing with the weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper the contribution of real time weather data to player enjoyment was tested and evaluated. To gauge the contribution of weather to player engagement an adaptronic, multiplayer, location based game, where real time weather data is key to the ... Keywords: adaptronic games, casual game, game, location based, multiplayer games, pervasive game, weather

Sofia Reis; Nuno Correia

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

357

A New Method to Produce Sea Surface Temperature Using Satellite Data Assimilation into an Atmosphere-Ocean Mixed Layer Coupled Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new method of producing sea surface temperature (SST) data for numerical weather prediction is suggested, which is obtained from the assimilation of satellite-derived SST into an atmosphere-ocean mixed layer coupled model. The Weather Research ...

Eunjeong Lee; Yign Noh; Naoki Hirose

358

Predictive clothing insulation model based on outdoor air and indoor operative temperatures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2012) Predictive clothing insulation model based on outdoorPredictive clothing insulation model based on outdoor airpredictive models of clothing insulation have been developed

Schiavon, Stefano; Lee, Kwang Ho

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

History History of the Weatherization Assistance Program to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: History of the Weatherization Assistance Program on AddThis.com...

360

Development of a Unified Land Model for Prediction of Surface Hydrology and Land–Atmosphere Interactions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A unified land model (ULM) is described that combines the surface flux parameterizations in the Noah land surface model (used in most of NOAA’s coupled weather and climate models) with the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (Sac; used for ...

Ben Livneh; Pedro J. Restrepo; Dennis P. Lettenmaier

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

United States weather resource data, compatible with System Advisor...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

United States weather resource data, compatible with System Advisor Model (SAM)

Weather resource data for the United States for use in the System Advisor Model (SAM).
...

362

Variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear hidden state-space models for model predictive control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies the identification and model predictive control in nonlinear hidden state-space models. Nonlinearities are modelled with neural networks and system identification is done with variational Bayesian learning. In addition to the robustness ... Keywords: Model predictive control, Neural network, Nonlinear system, Partially observable Markov decision process, State-space method, Stochastic optimal control, Variational methods

Tapani Raiko; Matti Tornio

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

2013-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

364

Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation  

SciTech Connect

Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

2010-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

365

HVAC Room Temperature Prediction Control Based on Neural Network Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

HVAC (Heating Ventilating &Air-conditioning) system is a nonlinear complex system with delay. It is very difficult to build a mathematical model of HVAC and implement model-based control. Since a BP (Back Propagation) neural network can fully approximate ... Keywords: BP neural network, predictive control, HVAC, least squares method

Shujiang Li, Shuang Ren, Xiangdong Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Crude Oil Price Prediction Using Slantlet Denoising Based Hybrid Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accurate prediction of crude oil price movement has always been the central issue with profound implications across different levels of the economy. This study conducts empirical investigations into the characteristics of crude oil market and proposes ... Keywords: Slantlet Analysis, ARMA Model, Hybrid Forecasting Algorithm, Rrandom Walk Model, Support Vector Regression

Kaijian He; Kin Keung Lai; Jerome Yen

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

A Numerical Model for Prediction of Road Temperature and Ice  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A numerical model for the prediction of road temperature and ice has been tested on data from a Danish road station. The model is based on the solution of the equation of heat conduction in the ground and the surface energy-balance equation.

Bent H. Sass

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Development of an Ocean Model Adjoint for Decadal Prediction | Argonne  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Development of an Ocean Model Adjoint for Decadal Prediction Development of an Ocean Model Adjoint for Decadal Prediction Development of an Ocean Model Adjoint for Decadal Prediction This project will develop an adjoint of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP; version 2.0.1) using automatic differentiation (AD) techniques. We have already had success with AD on sea ice models and will use this knowledge with POP. It is now unequivocal that the Earth's climate system is warming. The most recent IPCC assessment concludes that the increased temperatures in the latter 20th century are very likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and continued greenhouse emissions will likely result in even larger increases during the 21st century. Even if controls could be put on greenhouse emissions immediately, there is still some climate change that

369

Development of Chemical Model to Predict the Interactions between  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Model to Predict the Interactions between Model to Predict the Interactions between Supercritical CO2 and Fluid, Rocks in EGS Reservoirs Geothermal Project Jump to: navigation, search Last modified on July 22, 2011. Project Title Development of Chemical Model to Predict the Interactions between Supercritical CO2 and Fluid, Rocks in EGS Reservoirs Project Type / Topic 1 Recovery Act: Enhanced Geothermal Systems Component Research and Development/Analysis Project Type / Topic 2 Supercritical Carbon Dioxide / Reservoir Rock Chemical Interactions Project Description In order to develop this model, databases will be assembled and/or updated for thermodynamic and kinetic rate laws for water/brine/rock/CO2 interactions at the pressures and temperatures common to EGS systems. In addition to a literature search, extrapolation of existing data and experimental laboratory work will be conducted to calibrate and verify the datasets.

370

Numerical Prediction of Submesoscale Flow in the Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer over Complex Terrain  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical weather prediction models often perform poorly for weakly forced, highly variable winds in nocturnal stable boundary layers (SBLs). When used as input to air-quality and dispersion models, these wind errors can lead to large errors in ...

Nelson L. Seaman; Brian J. Gaudet; David R. Stauffer; Larry Mahrt; Scott J. Richardson; Jeffrey R. Zielonka; John C. Wyngaard

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

WUFI COMPUTER MODELING WORKSHOP FOR WALL DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

from rain, solar radiation and other crucial weather events on an hourly basis. Both vapor and liquid and uses weather data files from all over the country. The software includes analysis to predict mold. Dr of multi- layer building walls exposed to natural weather. The WUFI series models can handle contributions

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

372

Statistical Analysis of Forecasting Models across the North Slope of Alaska during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Eta Model, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Global Modeling and Assimilation ...

Victor T. Yannuzzi; Eugene E. Clothiaux; Jerry Y. Harrington; Johannes Verlinde

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Weather Theory Weather Reports, Forcasts and Charts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

GMU Weather Theory & Weather Reports, Forcasts and Charts Copyright 10/2010 AV-ED (For Reference Only) See 14CFR & AIM #12;GROUND SCHOOL / TEST SUBJECTS Session Subject Total / Actual Ques. 1 IN TEMPERATURE AS ALTITUDE INCREASES. - FREQUENT GROUND BASED TEMP INVERSION IS PRODUCED BY TERRESTRIAL RADIATION

374

Linking Weather and Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Historically, the atmospheric sciences have tended to treat problems of weather and climate separately. The real physical system, however, is a continuum, with short-term (minutes to days) “weather” fluctuations influencing climate variations and ...

Randall M. Dole

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Demand Impacted by Weather  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

When you look at demand, it’s also interesting to note the weather. The weather has a big impact on the demand of heating fuels, if it’s cold, consumers will use ...

376

Weather and Individual Happiness  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper investigates the influence of weather on happiness. While previous studies have examined climatic influence by comparing the well-being of people living in different regions, this paper focuses on how daily changes in weather affect ...

Yoshiro Tsutsui

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Lepton Flavor Violation in Predictive Supersymmetric GUT Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

There have been many theoretical models constructed which aim to explain the neutrino masses and mixing patterns. While many of the models will be eliminated once more accurate determinations of the mixing parameters, especially $\\sin^2 2\\theta_{13}$, are obtained, charged lepton flavor violation (LFV) experiments are able to differentiate even further among the models. In this paper, we investigate various rare LFV processes, such as $\\ell_{i} \\to \\ell_{j} + \\gamma$ and $\\mu-e$ conversion, in five predictive supersymmetric (SUSY) SO(10) models and their allowed soft-SUSY breaking parameter space in the constrained minimal SUSY standard model. Utilizing the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe dark matter constraints, we obtain lower bounds on the branching ratios of these rare processes and find that at least three of the five models we consider give rise to predictions for $\\mu \\to e + \\gamma$ that will be tested by the MEG Collaboration at PSI. In addition, the next generation $\\mu-e$ conversion experiment has sensitivity to the predictions of all five models, making it an even more robust way to test these models. While generic studies have emphasized the dependence of the branching ratios of these rare processes on the reactor neutrino angle $\\theta_{13}$ and the mass of the heaviest right-handed neutrino $M_3$, we find very massive $M_3$ is more significant than large $\\theta_{13}$ in leading to branching ratios near to the present upper limits.

Carl H. Albright; Mu-Chun Chen

2008-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

378

Mathematical modeling to predict residential solid waste generation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One of the challenges faced by waste management authorities is determining the amount of waste generated by households in order to establish waste management systems, as well as trying to charge rates compatible with the principle applied worldwide, and design a fair payment system for households according to the amount of residential solid waste (RSW) they generate. The goal of this research work was to establish mathematical models that correlate the generation of RSW per capita to the following variables: education, income per household, and number of residents. This work was based on data from a study on generation, quantification and composition of residential waste in a Mexican city in three stages. In order to define prediction models, five variables were identified and included in the model. For each waste sampling stage a different mathematical model was developed, in order to find the model that showed the best linear relation to predict residential solid waste generation. Later on, models to explore the combination of included variables and select those which showed a higher R{sup 2} were established. The tests applied were normality, multicolinearity and heteroskedasticity. Another model, formulated with four variables, was generated and the Durban-Watson test was applied to it. Finally, a general mathematical model is proposed to predict residential waste generation, which accounts for 51% of the total.

Ojeda Benitez, Sara [Engineering Institute, UABC, Boulevard Benito Juarez y Calle de la Normal S/N, Col. Insurgentes Este, C.P. 21280, Mexicali, Baja California (Mexico)], E-mail: sojedab@uabc.mx; Lozano-Olvera, Gabriela [Engineering Institute, UABC, Boulevard Benito Juarez y Calle de la Normal S/N, Col. Insurgentes Este, C.P. 21280, Mexicali, Baja California (Mexico); Morelos, Raul Adalberto [CESUES Superior Studies Center, San Luis R.C. Sonora (Mexico); Vega, Carolina Armijo de [Engineering Faculty, UABC, Km 103, Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada, C.P. 22860, Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico)

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Lepton Flavor Violation in Predictive SUSY-GUT Models  

SciTech Connect

There have been many theoretical models constructed which aim to explain the neutrino masses and mixing patterns. While many of the models will be eliminated once more accurate determinations of the mixing parameters, especially sin{sup 2} 2{theta}{sub 13}, are obtained, charged lepton flavor violation (LFV) experiments are able to differentiate even further among the models. In this paper, they investigate various rare LFV processes, such as {ell}{sub i} {yields} {ell}{sub j} + {gamma} and {mu} - e conversion, in five predictive SUSY SO(10) models and their allowed soft SUSY breaking parameter space in the constrained minimal SUSY standard model (CMSSM). Utilizing the WMAP dark matter constraints, they obtain lower bounds on the branching ratios of these rare processes and find that at least three of the five models they consider give rise to predictions for {mu} {yields} e + {gamma} that will be tested by the MEG collaboration at PSI. in addition, the next generation {mu} - e conversion experiment has sensitivity to the predictions of all five models, making it an even more robust way to test these models. While generic studies have emphasized the dependence of the branching ratios of these rare processes on the reactor neutrino angle, {theta}{sub 13}, and the mass of the heaviest right-handed neutrino, M{sub 3}, they find very massive M{sub 3} is more significant than large {theta}{sub 13} in leading to branching ratios near to the present upper limits.

Albright, Carl H.; /Northern Illinois U. /Fermilab; Chen, Mu-Chun; /UC, Irvine

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

An Alternative Approach to Nonhydrostatic Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An alternative approach to the design of nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is presented. Instead of extending mesoscale nonhydrostatic modeling concepts to the synoptic scales and beyond, a hydrostatic NWP model using the ...

Z. I. Janjic; J. P. Gerrity Jr.; S. Nickovic

2001-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Weatherization & Intergovernmental Program: Projects  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

& Intergovernmental Program Projects Site Map Bookmark and Share Projects From energy efficiency initiatives - such as residential weatherization and state capitol...

382

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

383

Weatherization pays big dividends  

SciTech Connect

Weather Windows, do-it-yourself indoor vinyl storm windows, are a major project of the Duke Power Co. Weatherization Program. Various weatherization programs in existence across the United States are discussed, emphasizing their public relations aspects as well as the service they provide to customers regarding savings on electric bills. 1 figure.

Gorzelnik, E.F.

1983-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.

Arnab Rai Choudhuri; Piyali Chatterjee; Jie Jiang

2007-01-18T23:59:59.000Z

385

Rain Attenuation Prediction Model for Lagos at Millimeter Wave Bands  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

“Rain Attenuation Prediction Model for Lagos at Millimeter Wave bands” is the subject of this work. Lagos (geog. Lat. 6.350N and Long. 3.20E), is a coastal station in the rain forest area in the South-Western Nigeria with an altitude of 380 ...

Abayomi Isiaka Yussuff; Nor Hisham Haji Khamis

386

Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models Nils Siebert George.siebert@ensmp.fr, georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized today as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind generation in power systems. This paper deals

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

387

Predictive discrete latent factor models for large scale dyadic data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We propose a novel statistical method to predict large scale dyadic response variables in the presence of covariate information. Our approach simultaneously incorporates the effect of covariates and estimates local structure that is induced by interactions ... Keywords: co-clustering, dyadic data, generalized linear regression, latent factor modeling

Deepak Agarwal; Srujana Merugu

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Hurricane Prediction with a High Resolution Global Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A global spectral model is used to carry out a number of short to medium range prediction experiments with global datasets. The primary objective of these studies is to examine the formation and motion of the hurricanes/typhoons with a fairly ...

T. N. Krishnamurti; D. Oosterhof; Nancy Dignon

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Behavioral dynamics on the web: Learning, modeling, and prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The queries people issue to a search engine and the results clicked following a query change over time. For example, after the earthquake in Japan in March 2011, the query japan spiked in popularity and people issuing the query were more likely ... Keywords: Behavioral analysis, predictive behavioral models

Kira Radinsky; Krysta M. Svore; Susan T. Dumais; Milad Shokouhi; Jaime Teevan; Alex Bocharov; Eric Horvitz

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Designing intelligent disaster prediction models and systems for debris-flow disasters in Taiwan  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Effective disaster prediction relies on using correct disaster decision model to predict the disaster occurrence accurately. This study proposes three effective debris-flow prediction models and an inference engine to predict and decide the debris-flow ... Keywords: Back-propagation network, Debris-flow prediction models, Decision support system, Disaster prevention, Mobile multimedia communications

Hsu-Yang Kung; Chi-Hua Chen; Hao-Hsiang Ku

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Engineering model for predicting rubble motion during blasting  

SciTech Connect

Recent applications of explosives and blasting agents to rubble rock have led to requirements for more elaborate design and analysis methods. In most blasting uses, it is necessary not only to fracture the rock, but also to move the broken rubble in a predictable manner. Many in-situ extraction techniques require rubblization to take place in a confined region where rock motion is a predominate factor in creating a permeable broken bed. In this paper, an engineering model is presented which describes the large rubble motion during blasting. This model is intended to provide the blast designer with a tool for evaluation and further refinement of blasting patterns and timing sequences. In this model the rock medium is represented by a discrete series of circular regions of fractured material. These regions are set in motion by pressure loads from the explosive. The motion of the regions is calculated using a step-wise, explicit, numerical time integration method. Interaction of adjacent regions is based on inelastic impact of spherical bodies. The derivation of this model is presented along with the background for selecting loading pressure based on explosive behavior. Three typical examples, including both cratering and bench geometries, are discussed which illustrate the use of this model to predict rubble motion. This engineering representation appears to provide a practical model for use in predicting rubble motion and a tool for design evaluation of blasting in confined geometries. 15 figures.

Schamaun, J.T.

1982-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Engineering model for predicting rubble motion during blasting  

SciTech Connect

Recent applications of explosives and blasting agents to rubble rock have led to requirements for more elaborate design and analysis methods. In most blasting uses, it is necessary not only to fracture the rock, but also to move the broken rubble in a predictable manner. Many in situ extraction techniques require rubblization to take place in a confined region where rock motion is a predominate factor in creating a permeable broken bed. In this paper, an engineering model is presented which describes the large rubble motion during blasting. This model is intended to provide the blast designer with a tool for evaluation and further refinement of blasting patterns and timing sequences. In this model the rock medium is represented by a discrete series of circular regions of fractured material. These regions are set in motion by pressure loads from the explosive. The motion of the regions is calculated using a step-wise, explicit, numerical time integration method. Interaction of adjacent regions is based on inelastic impact of spherical bodies. The derivation of this model is presented along with the background for selecting loading pressure based on explosive behavior. Three typical examples, including both cratering and bench geometries, are discussed which illustrate the use of this model to predict rubble motion. This engineering representation appears to provide a practical model for use in predicting rubble motion and a tool for design evaluation of blasting in confined geometries. 15 figures, 1 table.

Schamaun, J.T.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Comprehensive fluence model for absolute portal dose image prediction  

SciTech Connect

Amorphous silicon (a-Si) electronic portal imaging devices (EPIDs) continue to be investigated as treatment verification tools, with a particular focus on intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). This verification could be accomplished through a comparison of measured portal images to predicted portal dose images. A general fluence determination tailored to portal dose image prediction would be a great asset in order to model the complex modulation of IMRT. A proposed physics-based parameter fluence model was commissioned by matching predicted EPID images to corresponding measured EPID images of multileaf collimator (MLC) defined fields. The two-source fluence model was composed of a focal Gaussian and an extrafocal Gaussian-like source. Specific aspects of the MLC and secondary collimators were also modeled (e.g., jaw and MLC transmission factors, MLC rounded leaf tips, tongue and groove effect, interleaf leakage, and leaf offsets). Several unique aspects of the model were developed based on the results of detailed Monte Carlo simulations of the linear accelerator including (1) use of a non-Gaussian extrafocal fluence source function, (2) separate energy spectra used for focal and extrafocal fluence, and (3) different off-axis energy spectra softening used for focal and extrafocal fluences. The predicted energy fluence was then convolved with Monte Carlo generated, EPID-specific dose kernels to convert incident fluence to dose delivered to the EPID. Measured EPID data were obtained with an a-Si EPID for various MLC-defined fields (from 1x1 to 20x20 cm{sup 2}) over a range of source-to-detector distances. These measured profiles were used to determine the fluence model parameters in a process analogous to the commissioning of a treatment planning system. The resulting model was tested on 20 clinical IMRT plans, including ten prostate and ten oropharyngeal cases. The model predicted the open-field profiles within 2%, 2 mm, while a mean of 96.6% of pixels over all IMRT fields was in agreement with the 2%, 3 mm criteria. This model demonstrates accuracy commensurate to existing methods for IMRT pretreatment verification with portal dose image prediction of complex clinical examples (<2%, 3 mm).

Chytyk, K.; McCurdy, B. M. C. [Division of Medical Physics, CancerCare Manitoba, 675 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 0V9 (Canada) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2 (Canada); Division of Medical Physics, CancerCare Manitoba, 675 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 0V9 (Canada); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2 (Canada) and Department of Radiology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3A 1R9 (Canada)

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

394

The Effectiveness of Weather Forecasts in Decision Making: An Example  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Decision models involving prescribed fire (the use of fire as a silvicultural tool) were used to analyze the utility of four types of weather information as forecasts: climatology, current weather observations (used as a persistence forecast), ...

R. William Furman

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Surface Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possible economic value of the quantification of uncertainty in future ensemble-based surface weather forecasts is investigated using a formal, idealized decision model. Current, or baseline, weather forecasts are represented by probabilistic ...

Daniel S. Wilks; Thomas M. Hamill

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

NETL: Predictive Modeling and Evaluation - TVA Model Comparison  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Ozone/PM2.5 Formation & Transport Model Comparison Ozone/PM2.5 Formation & Transport Model Comparison Future regulatory actions for mitigating PM2.5 concentrations will rely, to some extent, on results from large-scale atmospheric models. The most efficient approach to evaluating regulatory actions is to use an integrated approach that examines multiple air quality impacts simultaneously. This is because of the strong linkage between PM2.5 levels, visibility degradation, ozone and acidic deposition. Thus, regional modeling of the impacts on PM2.5 levels from proposed emission reductions should be evaluated in terms of computed impacts not only on PM2.5 levels, but on ozone and acidic deposition as well. TVA is an active participant in the only ongoing assessment of this type, which is being done for the Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative (SAMI) as part of its integrated assessment in the southeastern United States. SAMI, with its focus on protecting PSD Class I areas, is using a model called URM that can examine all the aforementioned phenomena at once. In addition, URM has the capability, which SAMI intends to use, of efficiently examining the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in emissions across the entire modeling domain. Finally, SAMI will use URM to test various emission management options (EMOs) for mitigating impacts in the southern Appalachians. These EMOs will include controls on various source sectors, including energy.

397

Accelerating Progress in Global Atmospheric Model Development through Improved Parameterizations: Challenges, Opportunities, and Strategies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meeting societal needs in weather, seasonal, and decadal prediction and climate projection requires a continuous improvement of the main tools used in making the predictions—global models of the Earth system. Despite significant progress in model ...

Christian Jakob

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Prediction of Cooling of a Nocturnal Environment Using Two Atmospheric Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A surface energy balance model and a boundary layer model were used to predict nocturnal cooling in an agricultural environment. The results from both models were compared with the observed temperatures to determine which model predicted the ...

Paul H. Heinemann; J. David Martsolf

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: Apply for Weatherization...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

missed. How will I benefit by participating in this program? Weatherization reduces your energy bills for a long time. Some measures, such as insulating your walls or roof, for...

400

Predictive model of nucleon-nucleus scattering cross sections  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Nucleon total reaction and neutron total cross sections as well as differential (including spin) observables from 25 to 300 MeV for stable nuclei from 6Li to 238U have been predicted that are in good agreement with measured data. Those predictions have been made using non-local, energy dependent, and complex optical potentials in coordinate space formed by full folding of effective nucleon-nucleon interactions with realistic nuclear ground state densities. By inverse kinematics the same model prescription describes exotic (radioactive) nuclei scattering from hydrogen as a target and the results reveal the extended (neutron) distributions such nuclei can have.

Amos, K. (Ken); Deb, P. (Pradip); Karataglidis, S. (Steven); Madland, D. G.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Weather pattern climatology of the United States  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

In this study the geographic domain covered the 48 conterminous states of the United States. The daily synoptic weather pattern was classified into nine types for the 10-year period January 1, 1969 to December 31, 1978. Weather pattern types were defined relative to the classical polar front model of a mid-latitude cyclonic storm system and its associated air masses. Guidelines for classifying weather patterns on an operational basis were developed. These were applied to 3652 daily surface weather maps to produce a time series of weather pattern type at 120 grid points of a 160 point, 3/sup 0/ latitude by 4/sup 0/ longitude array over the United States. Statistics on the frequency of occurrence, persistence and alternation of weather patterns were calculated for each grid point. Summary statistics for the entire grid and for six regions were also presented. Frequency of occurrence and persistence were found to depend on the size and speed of movement of the weather pattern. Large, slow moving air masses had higher frequency of occurrence and longer persistence than small (fronts) or rapidly moving (or changing) features (fronts, storm centers). Some types showed distinct regional preferences. The subtropical maritime high occurred mainly in the south central and southeast. An indeterminate weather pattern type accounted for those weather patterns that did not fit the polar front model or were too disorganized to be classified. The intermountain thermal low of the desert southwest was one such feature that dominated both frequency of occurrence and persistence in this region. Alternation from one weather pattern to another followed the polar front model of a moving cyclonic storm. The tendency for anticyclonic weather patterns to become disorganized as they weakened was seen in the high percentage of these patterns that changed to an indeterminate pattern as they aged.

Barchet, W.R.; Davis, W.E.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Atmos Energy - Natural Gas and Weatherization Efficiency Program |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Atmos Energy - Natural Gas and Weatherization Efficiency Program Atmos Energy - Natural Gas and Weatherization Efficiency Program Atmos Energy - Natural Gas and Weatherization Efficiency Program < Back Eligibility Low-Income Residential Residential Savings Category Heating & Cooling Commercial Heating & Cooling Heating Home Weatherization Sealing Your Home Construction Commercial Weatherization Design & Remodeling Ventilation Appliances & Electronics Water Heating Windows, Doors, & Skylights Program Info State Kentucky Program Type Utility Rebate Program Rebate Amount Forced Air Furnace: $250 - $400 Boiler: $250 High Efficiency Tank Water Heater: $200 - $300 Tankless Model: $400 Programmable Thermostat: $25 Weatherization Assistance: Up to $3,000 Provider Atmos Energy Kentucky Rebate Offer Atmos Energy provides rebates to residential and commercial for natural gas

403

NETL: Predictive Modeling and Evaluation - CMU Regional Modeling Study  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Regional Source-Receptor Modeling Study Regional Source-Receptor Modeling Study The Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) [PDF-744KB] is comprised of three inter-related components: 1) ambient PM measurements, 2) source characterization, and 3) deterministic and statistical air quality modeling. This effort will permit clarification of the contribution of coal-fired power plants to fine ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm). The resources from the Department of Energy (DOE) will be leveraged with resources from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other organizations. Clarkson University (Hopke group) will apply advanced receptor models to identify the nature, location and contribution of the sources of particulate matter observed by the measurements made as part of the PAQS. Several forms of factor analysis including Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and UNMIX will be applied in order to identify the composition and contributions of the sources. Potential Source Contribution Function analysis as well as Residence Time Weighted Concentration analysis will be applied to the determination of the locations of the likely major contributing sources. The aforementioned factor analysis methods will also be applied to the spatially distributed data both on a single species and multiple species basis and to compare these results with those obtained utilizing the back-trajectory-based methods. The availability of highly time resolved data should permit greater source resolution and will be examined to determine how much increased source specificity can be obtained from the increased time resolution in the data. Assistance will be provided with the multivariate calibration that will permit the use of single-particle mass spectrometry data to estimate ambient concentrations of particulate species. These analyses should provide a better understanding of the source/receptor relationships that lead to the observed particle concentrations in the Pittsburgh area.

404

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical way of postprocessing forecast ensembles to create predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. It represents the predictive PDF as a weighted average of PDFs centered on ...

J. Mc Lean Sloughter; Adrian E. Raftery; Tilmann Gneiting; Chris Fraley

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Structure-Based Predictive model for Coal Char Combustion.  

SciTech Connect

During the third quarter of this project, progress was made on both major technical tasks. Progress was made in the chemistry department at OSU on the calculation of thermodynamic properties for a number of model organic compounds. Modelling work was carried out at Brown to adapt a thermodynamic model of carbonaceous mesophase formation, originally applied to pitch carbonization, to the prediction of coke texture in coal combustion. This latter work makes use of the FG-DVC model of coal pyrolysis developed by Advanced Fuel Research to specify the pool of aromatic clusters that participate in the order/disorder transition. This modelling approach shows promise for the mechanistic prediction of the rank dependence of char structure and will therefore be pursued further. Crystalline ordering phenomena were also observed in a model char prepared from phenol-formaldehyde carbonized at 900{degrees}C and 1300{degrees}C using high-resolution TEM fringe imaging. Dramatic changes occur in the structure between 900 and 1300{degrees}C, making this char a suitable candidate for upcoming in situ work on the hot stage TEM. Work also proceeded on molecular dynamics simulations at Boston University and on equipment modification and testing for the combustion experiments with widely varying flame types at Ohio State.

Hurt, R.; Colo, J [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Div. of Engineering; Essenhigh, R.; Hadad, C [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). Dept. of Chemistry; Stanley, E. [Boston Univ., MA (United States). Dept. of Physics

1997-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

406

Comparison of models for predicting landfill methane recovery. Final report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Landfill methane models are tools used to project methane generation over time from a mass of landfilled waste. These models are used for sizing landfill gas (LFG) collection systems, evaluations and projections of LFG energy uses, and regulatory purposes. The objective of this project was to select various landfill methane models and to provide a comparison of model outputs to actual long-term gas recovery data from a number of well managed and suitable landfills. Another objective was to use these data to develop better estimates of confidence limits that can be assigned to model projections. This project assessed trial model forms against field data from available landfills where methane extraction was maximized, waste filling history was well-documented, and other pertinent site information was of superior quality. Data were obtained from 18 US landfills. Four landfill methane models were compared: a zero-order, a simple first order, a modified first order, and a multi-phase first order model. Models were adjusted for best fit to field data to yield parameter combinations based on the minimized residual errors between predicted and experienced methane recovery. The models were optimized in this way using two data treatments: absolute value of the differences (arithmetic error minimization) and absolute value of the natural log of the ratios (logarithmic error minimization).

Vogt, W.G. [SCS Engineers, Reston, VA (United States); Augenstein, D. [Institute for Environmental Management, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

The Predictive Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes in Response to Increasing Ambient Carbon Dioxide  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The exchange of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in numerical weather forecasting and climate change prediction using general circulation models. In this study, a typical ...

Karsten Schulz; Andrew Jarvis; Keith Beven; Henrik Soegaard

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Homogeneous bubble nucleation predicted by a molecular interaction model  

SciTech Connect

The homogenous bubble nucleation of various hydrocarbons was estimated by the modified classical nucleation theory. In this modification, the kinetic formalism of the classical theory is retained while the surface energy needed for the bubble formation is calculated form the interaction energy between molecules. With a nucleation rate value of J{sub n{sub c}} = 10{sup 22} nuclei/cm{sup 3}s, this modified model gives a very good prediction of the superheat limits of liquids. In another test of the model the complete evaporation time of a butane droplet at its superheat limit is compared with experiments and found to be in good agreement.

Hoyoung Kwak; Sangbum Lee (Chung-Ang Univ., Seoul (Korea))

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Final Project Report: Release of aged contaminants from weathered sediments: Effects of sorbate speciation on scaling of reactive transport  

SciTech Connect

Hanford sediments impacted by hyperalkaline high level radioactive waste have undergone incongruent silicate mineral weathering concurrent with contaminant uptake. In this project, we studied the impact of background pore water (BPW) on strontium, cesium and iodine desorption and transport in Hanford sediments that were experimentally weathered by contact with simulated hyperalkaline tank waste leachate (STWL) solutions. Using those lab-weathered Hanford sediments (HS) and model precipitates formed during nucleation from homogeneous STWL solutions (HN), we (i) provided detailed characterization of reaction products over a matrix of field-relevant gradients in contaminant concentration, PCO2, and reaction time; (ii) improved molecular-scale understanding of how sorbate speciation controls contaminant desorption from weathered sediments upon removal of caustic sources; and (iii) developed a mechanistic, predictive model of meso- to field-scale contaminant reactive transport under these conditions.

Jon Chorover, University of Arizona; Peggy O' €  ™ Day, University of California, Merced; Karl Mueller, Penn State University; Wooyong Um, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Carl Steefel, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Weather and Joints  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Humidity and air pressure changes, which accompany changes in weather, can sometimes be felt in the human body, some people are affected more than others. Arthritis in joints...

412

Educational Weather Games  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Games Do you have a great weather game? Please click our Ideas page. Featured Games: NOAA - Planet Arcade NOAA - Planet Arcade The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...

413

CONTAM Weather Program Description  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... spreadsheet program. The tool can convert Energy Plus weather files (EPW files) to WTH files. EPW files can be found on the US ...

414

A Chapter In Space Weather: Physics and Effects  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the activity of a particular region of geospace and thus we have space weather modeling for the solar- 1 - A Chapter In Space Weather: Physics and Effects by V. Bothmer and I.A. Daglis (editors) Springer Praxis September 2005 Draft date: March 9, 2007 Forecasting Space Weather Dimitris Vassiliadis ST

Vassiliadis, Dimitrios

415

Provably Safe and Robust Learning-Based Model Predictive Control  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Controller design for systems typically faces a trade-off between robustness and performance, and the reliability of linear controllers has caused many control practitioners to focus on the former. However, there is a renewed interest in improving system performance to deal with growing energy and pollution constraints. This paper describes a learning-based model predictive control (MPC) scheme. The MPC provides deterministic guarantees on robustness and safety, and the learning is used to identify richer models of the system to improve controller performance. Our scheme uses a linear model with bounds on its uncertainty to construct invariant sets which help to provide the guarantees, and it can be generalized to other classes of models and to pseudo-spectral methods. This framework allows us to handle state and input constraints and optimize system performance with respect to a cost function. The learning occurs through the use of an oracle which returns the value and gradient of unmodeled dynamics at discr...

Aswani, Anil; Sastry, S Shankar; Tomlin, Claire

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Some Characteristics of Model-Predicted Precipitation during the Summer Monsoon over India  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the summer monsoon seasons of 1995, 1996, and 1997 the day-1 to day-4 forecasts of precipitation from both the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) models ...

B. K. Basu

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Weather Noise Forcing of Surface Climate Variability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A model-based method to evaluate the role of weather noise forcing of low-frequency variability of surface properties, including SST, surface currents, land surface temperature, and soil moisture, is presented. In this procedure, an “interactive ...

Edwin K. Schneider; Meizhu Fan

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

About About Site Map Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: About on AddThis.com... Plans, Implementation, & Results Weatherization Assistance Program WAP - Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Grants WAP - Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program State Energy Program

419

Weather Derivatives and Weather Insurance: Concept, Application, and Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept and applications of weather derivatives and weather insurance are introduced. Proper analysis of these financial instruments requires both statistical knowledge and thorough understanding of the physical weather and climate process. A ...

Lixin Zeng

2000-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Weatherization and minority energy use: A preliminary analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents an analysis of the patterns of minority and non-minority energy consumption with and without weatherization measures. The behavior of the household in response to a weatherization-induced income gain is modeled using ANL`s Minority Economic Assessment Model (MEAM). Weatherization is then examined from a programmatic perspective in light of the MEAM findings. This work is the first part of a larger analysis to assess the economic impact of weatherization on minority households and to examine the reallocation of LIHEAP funds to weatherization. Several limitations of this analysis are discussed.

Earl, E.V.; Collins, N.E.

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Weatherization and minority energy use: A preliminary analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents an analysis of the patterns of minority and non-minority energy consumption with and without weatherization measures. The behavior of the household in response to a weatherization-induced income gain is modeled using ANL's Minority Economic Assessment Model (MEAM). Weatherization is then examined from a programmatic perspective in light of the MEAM findings. This work is the first part of a larger analysis to assess the economic impact of weatherization on minority households and to examine the reallocation of LIHEAP funds to weatherization. Several limitations of this analysis are discussed.

Earl, E.V.; Collins, N.E.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

The Successive-Order-of-Interaction Radiative Transfer Model. Part II: Model Performance and Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Radiative transfer models for scattering atmospheres that are accurate yet computationally efficient are required for many applications, such as data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. The successive-order-of-interaction (SOI) model is ...

Christopher W. O’Dell; Andrew K. Heidinger; Thomas Greenwald; Peter Bauer; Ralf Bennartz

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

weather | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

weather weather Dataset Summary Description A csv containing hourly weather data at NREL's Research and Support Facility (RSF) for 2011. Source NREL Date Released February 07th, 2013 (10 months ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 data NREL RSF weather Data text/csv icon rsf_weather_data_2011.csv (csv, 851.2 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period License License Open Data Commons Attribution License Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata Average vote Your vote Usefulness of the dataset Average vote Your vote Ease of access Average vote Your vote Overall rating Average vote Your vote Comments Login or register to post comments If you rate this dataset, your published comment will include your rating.

424

Weatherized in January  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

**Number of Homes **Number of Homes Weatherized in January 2011 (Recovery Act) Total Number of Homes Weatherized through January 2011 (Recovery Act) ***Total Number of Homes Weatherized through January 2011 Calendar Year 2009 - January 2011 (Recovery Act + Annual Program Funding) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By Grantee in January 2011 (Calendar Year) (Recovery Act) (Recovery Act Annual Program Funding) Alabama 323 4,036 4,780 1 Alaska 21 231 1,850 Arizona 289 4,000 5,187 Arkansas 179 3,545 5,263 California 1,469 24,620 28,197 Colorado 401 7,188 12,926 Connecticut 530 3,689 4,758 2 2 Delaware 519 689 District of Columbia 30 661 972 Florida 799 8,895 9,971 Georgia 526 7,718 8,476 Hawaii 13 419 774 Idaho 244 3,996 5,963 Illinois

425

NEWTON's Weather Archive  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Archive: Weather Archive: Loading Most Recent Weather Questions: Acid Rain and Evaporation Effects Ground Temperature for Snow to 'Stick' Clouds and Time of Day Chart Scales on Vertical Velocity Chart Aneroid Barometers: Aircraft; Meteorology Air and Saturation Pressure Tornado Size and Vortex Spin Rate Polar Air Pressure Coldest Temperature in Atmosphere; Elevation Snow Clump Formation Relative Humidity, Temperature, Amount of Water Polar Weather Systems Bergeron Process Cloud Formation and Time of Day Hailstone Shape Threshold Values for Classifying Pressure Systems Rain Shadow Range Cloud Suspension Measuring Rainfall Why Does It Rain? Measuring Rainfall Dew Point and Dogs Size of Cloud from Shadow What is dBZ in Meteorology? Daily Temperature Lag To see all entries in the Weather

426

An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical analyses and hypothesis tests as a part of the validation step to provide feedback to analysts and modelers. Decisions on how to proceed in making model-based predictions are made based on these analyses together with the application requirements. Updating modifying and understanding the boundaries associated with the model are also assisted through this feedback. (4) We include a ''model supplement term'' when model problems are indicated. This term provides a (bias) correction to the model so that it will better match the experimental results and more accurately account for uncertainty. Presumably, as the models continue to develop and are used for future applications, the causes for these apparent biases will be identified and the need for this supplementary modeling will diminish. (5) We use a response-modeling approach for our predictions that allows for general types of prediction and for assessment of prediction uncertainty. This approach is demonstrated through a case study supporting the assessment of a weapons response when subjected to a hydrocarbon fuel fire. The foam decomposition model provides an important element of the response of a weapon system in this abnormal thermal environment. Rigid foam is used to encapsulate critical components in the weapon system providing the needed mechanical support as well as thermal isolation. Because the foam begins to decompose at temperatures above 250 C, modeling the decomposition is critical to assessing a weapons response. In the validation analysis it is indicated that the model tends to ''exaggerate'' the effect of temperature changes when compared to the experimental results. The data, however, are too few and to restricted in terms of experimental design to make confident statements regarding modeling problems. For illustration, we assume these indications are correct and compensate for this apparent bias by constructing a model supplement term for use in the model-based predictions. Several hypothetical prediction problems are created and addressed. Hypothetical problems are used because no guidance was provided concern

Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

2003-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Model Predictive Control of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plants  

SciTech Connect

The primary project objectives were to understand how the process design of an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant affects the dynamic operability and controllability of the process. Steady-state and dynamic simulation models were developed to predict the process behavior during typical transients that occur in plant operation. Advanced control strategies were developed to improve the ability of the process to follow changes in the power load demand, and to improve performance during transitions between power levels. Another objective of the proposed work was to educate graduate and undergraduate students in the application of process systems and control to coal technology. Educational materials were developed for use in engineering courses to further broaden this exposure to many students. ASPENTECH software was used to perform steady-state and dynamic simulations of an IGCC power plant. Linear systems analysis techniques were used to assess the steady-state and dynamic operability of the power plant under various plant operating conditions. Model predictive control (MPC) strategies were developed to improve the dynamic operation of the power plants. MATLAB and SIMULINK software were used for systems analysis and control system design, and the SIMULINK functionality in ASPEN DYNAMICS was used to test the control strategies on the simulated process. Project funds were used to support a Ph.D. student to receive education and training in coal technology and the application of modeling and simulation techniques.

B. Wayne Bequette; Priyadarshi Mahapatra

2010-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

428

Fast prediction and evaluation of gravitational waveforms using surrogate models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

[Abridged] We propose a solution to the problem of quickly and accurately predicting gravitational waveforms within any given physical model. The method is relevant for both real-time applications and in more traditional scenarios where the generation of waveforms using standard methods can be prohibitively expensive. Our approach is based on three offline steps resulting in an accurate reduced-order model that can be used as a surrogate for the true/fiducial waveform family. First, a set of m parameter values is determined using a greedy algorithm from which a reduced basis representation is constructed. Second, these m parameters induce the selection of m time values for interpolating a waveform time series using an empirical interpolant. Third, a fit in the parameter dimension is performed for the waveform's value at each of these m times. The cost of predicting L waveform time samples for a generic parameter choice is of order m L + m c_f online operations where c_f denotes the fitting function operation count and, typically, m cost of generating EOB waveforms in standard ways. Surrogate model building for other waveform models follow the same steps and have the same low online scaling cost. For expensive numerical simulations of binary black hole coalescences we thus anticipate extremely large speedups in generating new waveforms with a surrogate. As waveform generation is one of the dominant costs in parameter estimation algorithms and parameter space exploration, surrogate models offer a new and practical way to dramatically accelerate such studies without impacting accuracy.

Scott E. Field; Chad R. Galley; Jan S. Hesthaven; Jason Kaye; Manuel Tiglio

2013-08-16T23:59:59.000Z

429

The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A ...

Bao-Fong Jeng; Hway-Jen Chen; Shwu-Ching Lin; Tzay-Ming Leou; Melinda S. Peng; Simon W. Chang; Wu-Ron Hsu; C.-P. Chang

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Weather Modification: Finding Common Ground  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Research and operational approaches to weather modification expressed in the National Research Council's 2003 report on “Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research” and in the Weather Modification Association's response to that report form ...

Michael Garstang; Roelof Bruintjes; Robert Serafin; Harold Orville; Bruce Boe; William Cotton; Joseph Warburton

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Predictive modeling of reactive wetting and metal joining.  

SciTech Connect

The performance, reproducibility and reliability of metal joints are complex functions of the detailed history of physical processes involved in their creation. Prediction and control of these processes constitutes an intrinsically challenging multi-physics problem involving heating and melting a metal alloy and reactive wetting. Understanding this process requires coupling strong molecularscale chemistry at the interface with microscopic (diffusion) and macroscopic mass transport (flow) inside the liquid followed by subsequent cooling and solidification of the new metal mixture. The final joint displays compositional heterogeneity and its resulting microstructure largely determines the success or failure of the entire component. At present there exists no computational tool at Sandia that can predict the formation and success of a braze joint, as current capabilities lack the ability to capture surface/interface reactions and their effect on interface properties. This situation precludes us from implementing a proactive strategy to deal with joining problems. Here, we describe what is needed to arrive at a predictive modeling and simulation capability for multicomponent metals with complicated phase diagrams for melting and solidification, incorporating dissolutive and composition-dependent wetting.

van Swol, Frank B.

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

Structure-Based Predictive model for Coal Char Combustion.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the second quarter of this project, progress was made on both major technical tasks. Three parallel efforts were initiated on the modeling of carbon structural evolution. Structural ordering during carbonization was studied by a numerical simulation scheme proposed by Alan Kerstein involving molecular weight growth and rotational mobility. Work was also initiated to adapt a model of carbonaceous mesophase formation, originally developed under parallel NSF funding, to the prediction of coke texture. This latter work makes use of the FG-DVC model of coal pyrolysis developed by Advanced Fuel Research to specify the pool of aromatic clusters that participate in the order/disorder transition. Boston University has initiated molecular dynamics simulations of carbonization processes and Ohio State has begun theoretical treatment of surface reactions. Experimental work has also begun on model compound studies at Brown and on pilot-scale combustion systems with widely varying flame types at OSE. The work on mobility / growth models shows great promise and is discussed in detail in the body of the report.

Hurt, R.; Calo, J. [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Div. of Engineering; Essenhigh, R.; Hadad, C. [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). Dept. of Chemistry; Stanley, E. [Boston Univ., MA (United States). Dept. of Physics

1997-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

433

Development of a fourth generation predictive capability maturity model.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNL's mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

Hills, Richard Guy; Witkowski, Walter R.; Urbina, Angel; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Evaluating the Use of a Nonlinear Two-Dimensional Model in Downslope Windstorm Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe downslope windstorms are a mesoscale, primarily wintertime, phenomenon that affect regions in the lee of large mountain ranges. The resolution of current weather prediction models is too coarse to explicitly predict downslope windstorms. ...

Louisa B. Nance; Bradley R. Colman

2000-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Source of Seasonality and Scale Dependence of Predictability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The seasonality of predictability of ENSO (related to the so-called spring predictability barrier) is investigated using the Cane–Zebiak coupled model. Observed winds are used to force the ocean component of the model to generate analyzed initial ...

B. N. Goswami; K. Rajendran; D. Sengupta

1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Spatial and Temporal Scales of Boundary Layer Wind Predictability in Response to Small-Amplitude Land Surface Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Predictability experiments with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a proxy for the atmosphere are analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of boundary layer wind response to land surface perturbations. Soil moisture is ...

Joshua P. Hacker

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Assimilating Airborne Doppler Radar Observations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Convection-Permitting Hurricane Initialization and Prediction: Katrina (2005)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Through a Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)-based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system, the impact of assimilating airborne radar observations for the convection-permitting analysis and prediction of Hurricane Katrina (...

Yonghui Weng; Fuqing Zhang

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Decentralized-coordinated model predictive control for a hydro-power valley  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper aims at improving control systems for hydro-power production, by combining model predictive control techniques with decomposition-coordination methods for a global optimization over a whole hydro-power valley. It first recalls the model predictive ... Keywords: Case-study validation, Control optimization, Decomposition-coordination, Hydroelectricity, Model predictive control

J. ZáRate FlóRez, J. Martinez, G. BesançOn, D. Faille

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Matchstick: A Room-to-Room Thermal Model for Predicting Indoor Temperature from Wireless Sensor Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Matchstick: A Room-to-Room Thermal Model for Predicting Indoor Temperature from Wireless Sensor present a room-to-room thermal model used to accurately predict temperatures in residential buildings. We that our model can predict future indoor temperature trends with a 90th percentile aggregate error between

Hazas, Mike

440

STRUCTURE-BASED PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR COAL CHAR COMBUSTION  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Progress was made this period on a number of tasks. A significant advance was made in the incorporation of macrostructural ideas into high temperature combustion models. Work at OSU by R. Essenhigh in collaboration with the University of Stuttgart has led to a theory that the zone I / II transition in char combustion lies within the range of conditions of interest for pulverized char combustion. The group has presented evidence that some combustion data, previously interpreted with zone II models, in fact takes place in the transition from zone II to zone 1. This idea was used at Brown to make modifications to the CBK model (a char kinetics package specially designed for carbon burnout prediction, currently used by a number of research and furnace modeling groups in academia and industry). The resulting new model version, CBK8, shows improved ability to predict extinction behavior in the late stages of combustion, especially for particles with low ash content. The full development and release of CBK8, along with detailed descriptions of the role of the zone 1/2 transition will be reported on in subsequent reports. ABB-CE is currently implementing CBK7 into a special version of the CFD code Fluent for use in the modeling and design of their boilers. They have been appraised of the development, and have expressed interest in incorporating the new feature, realizing full CBK8 capabilities into their combustion codes. The computational chemistry task at OSU continued to study oxidative pathways for PAH, with emphasis this period on heteroatom containing ring compounds. Preliminary XPS studies were also carried out. Combustion experiments were also carried out at OSU this period, leading to the acquisition of samples at various residence times and the measurement of their oxidation reactivity by nonisothermal TGA techniques. Several members of the project team attended the Carbon Conference this period and made contacts with representatives from the new FETC Consortium for Premium Carbon Products from Coal. Possibilities for interactions with this new center will be explored. Also this period, an invited review paper was prepared for the 27th International Symposium on Combustion, to be held in Boulder, Colorado in August. The paper is entitled; "Structure, Properties, and Reactivity of Solid Fuels," and reports on a number of advances made in this collaborative project.

CHRISTOPHER M. HADAD; JOSEPH M. CALO; ROBERT H. ESSENHIGH; ROBERT H. HURT

1998-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Prediction of Tropical Rainfall by Local Phase Space Reconstruction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors propose a weather prediction model based on a local reconstruction of the dynamics in phase space, using an 11-year dataset from Tlaxcala, Mexico. A vector in phase space corresponds to T consecutive days of data; the best predictions ...

H. Waelbroeck; R. López-Pen?a; T. Morales; F. Zertuche

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Waste glass weathering  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass.

Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

1993-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

443

Regional Models of the Atmosphere in Middle Latitudes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This review describes recent development in operational and research limited-area numerical weather prediction models in middle latitudes. The current skill of limited-area models is summarized through the use of conventional measures of ...

Richard A. Anthes

1983-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour  

SciTech Connect

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

2008-09-16T23:59:59.000Z

445

Evaluation of IPCC Models’ Performance in Simulating Late-Twentieth-Century Climatologies and Weather Patterns over North America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors analyze the performance of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models (GCMs) over all of North America and its western subregion using several different evaluation metrics. They assess the model skill in ...

Valentina Radi?; Garry K. C. Clarke

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Comparison of Convective Boundary Layer Velocity Spectra Retrieved from Large Eddy Simulation and Weather Research and Forecasting Model Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As computing capabilities expand, operational and research environments are moving toward the use of fine-scale atmospheric numerical models. These models are attractive for users who seek accurate description of small-scale turbulent motions. One ...

Jeremy A. Gibbs; Evgeni Fedorovich

447

Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources using Model Predictive Control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In an isolated power system (rural microgrid), Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) such as renewable energy resources (wind, solar), energy storage and demand response can be used to complement fossil fueled generators. The uncertainty and variability due to high penetration of wind makes reliable system operations and controls challenging. In this paper, an optimal control strategy is proposed to coordinate energy storage and diesel generators to maximize wind penetration while maintaining system economics and normal operation. The problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem with the goals of minimizing fuel costs and changes in power output of diesel generators, minimizing costs associated with low battery life of energy storage and maintaining system frequency at the nominal operating value. Two control modes are considered for controlling the energy storage to compensate either net load variability or wind variability. Model predictive control (MPC) is used to solve the aforementioned problem and the performance is compared to an open-loop look-ahead dispatch problem. Simulation studies using high and low wind profiles, as well as, different MPC prediction horizons demonstrate the efficacy of the closed-loop MPC in compensating for uncertainties in wind and demand.

Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Kalsi, Karanjit; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Zhang, Wei; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Butler-Purry, Karen

2012-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

448

Adaptive model predictive process control using neural networks  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A control system for controlling the output of at least one plant process output parameter is implemented by adaptive model predictive control using a neural network. An improved method and apparatus provides for sampling plant output and control input at a first sampling rate to provide control inputs at the fast rate. The MPC system is, however, provided with a network state vector that is constructed at a second, slower rate so that the input control values used by the MPC system are averaged over a gapped time period. Another improvement is a provision for on-line training that may include difference training, curvature training, and basis center adjustment to maintain the weights and basis centers of the neural in an updated state that can follow changes in the plant operation apart from initial off-line training data.

Buescher, Kevin L. (Los Alamos, NM); Baum, Christopher C. (Mazomanie, WI); Jones, Roger D. (Espanola, NM)

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Adaptive model predictive process control using neural networks  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A control system for controlling the output of at least one plant process output parameter is implemented by adaptive model predictive control using a neural network. An improved method and apparatus provides for sampling plant output and control input at a first sampling rate to provide control inputs at the fast rate. The MPC system is, however, provided with a network state vector that is constructed at a second, slower rate so that the input control values used by the MPC system are averaged over a gapped time period. Another improvement is a provision for on-line training that may include difference training, curvature training, and basis center adjustment to maintain the weights and basis centers of the neural in an updated state that can follow changes in the plant operation apart from initial off-line training data. 46 figs.

Buescher, K.L.; Baum, C.C.; Jones, R.D.

1997-08-19T23:59:59.000Z

450

LIFETIME PREDICTION FOR MODEL 9975 O-RINGS IN KAMS  

SciTech Connect

The Savannah River Site (SRS) is currently storing plutonium materials in the K-Area Materials Storage (KAMS) facility. The materials are packaged per the DOE 3013 Standard and transported and stored in KAMS in Model 9975 shipping packages, which include double containment vessels sealed with dual O-rings made of Parker Seals compound V0835-75 (based on Viton{reg_sign} GLT). The outer O-ring of each containment vessel is credited for leaktight containment per ANSI N14.5. O-ring service life depends on many factors, including the failure criterion, environmental conditions, overall design, fabrication quality and assembly practices. A preliminary life prediction model has been developed for the V0835-75 O-rings in KAMS. The conservative model is based primarily on long-term compression stress relaxation (CSR) experiments and Arrhenius accelerated-aging methodology. For model development purposes, seal lifetime is defined as a 90% loss of measurable sealing force. Thus far, CSR experiments have only reached this target level of degradation at temperatures {ge} 300 F. At lower temperatures, relaxation values are more tolerable. Using time-temperature superposition principles, the conservative model predicts a service life of approximately 20-25 years at a constant seal temperature of 175 F. This represents a maximum payload package at a constant ambient temperature of 104 F, the highest recorded in KAMS to date. This is considered a highly conservative value as such ambient temperatures are only reached on occasion and for short durations. The presence of fiberboard in the package minimizes the impact of such temperature swings, with many hours to several days required for seal temperatures to respond proportionately. At 85 F ambient, a more realistic but still conservative value, bounding seal temperatures are reduced to {approx}158 F, with an estimated seal lifetime of {approx}35-45 years. The actual service life for O-rings in a maximum wattage package likely lies higher than the estimates due to the conservative assumptions used for the model. For lower heat loads at similar ambient temperatures, seal lifetime is further increased. The preliminary model is based on several assumptions that require validation with additional experiments and longer exposures at more realistic conditions. The assumption of constant exposure at peak temperature is believed to be conservative. Cumulative damage at more realistic conditions will likely be less severe but is more difficult to assess based on available data. Arrhenius aging behavior is expected, but non-Arrhenius behavior is possible. Validation of Arrhenius behavior is ideally determined from longer tests at temperatures closer to actual service conditions. CSR experiments will therefore continue at lower temperatures to validate the model. Ultrasensitive oxygen consumption analysis has been shown to be useful in identifying non-Arrhenius behavior within reasonable test periods. Therefore, additional experiments are recommended and planned to validate the model.

Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

451

Weather Normalization of Reliability Indices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather significantly increases variability of reliability indices. This project focuses on exploring statistical correlations between weather parameters and system performance indices using historical utility reliability data and weather data. Using this information, various approaches for normalizing utility performance indices for variability in weather can be developed.

2008-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

452

The Impact of IBM Cell Technology on the Programming Paradigm in the Context of Computer Systems for Climate and Weather Models  

SciTech Connect

The call for ever-increasing model resolutions and physical processes in climate and weather models demands a continual increase in computing power. The IBM Cell processor's order-of-magnitude peak performance increase over conventional processors makes it very attractive to fulfill this requirement. However, the Cell's characteristics, 256KB local memory per SPE and the new low-level communication mechanism, make it very challenging to port an application. As a trial, we selected the solar radiation component of the NASA GEOS-5 climate model, which: (1) is representative of column physics components (half the total computational time), (2) has an extremely high computational intensity: the ratio of computational load to main memory transfers, and (3) exhibits embarrassingly parallel column computations. In this paper, we converted the baseline code (single-precision Fortran) to C and ported it to an IBM BladeCenter QS20. For performance, we manually SIMDize four independent columns and include several unrolling optimizations. Our results show that when compared with the baseline implementation running on one core of Intel's Xeon Woodcrest, Dempsey, and Itanium2, the Cell is approximately 8.8x, 11.6x, and 12.8x faster, respectively. Our preliminary analysis shows that the Cell can also accelerate the dynamics component (~;;25percent total computational time). We believe these dramatic performance improvements make the Cell processor very competitive as an accelerator.

Zhou, Shujia; Duffy, Daniel; Clune, Thomas; Suarez, Max; Williams, Samuel; Halem, Milton

2009-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

453

Evaluation of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Climate in the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model Using Automatic Weather Station Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 1998 annual cycle and 1991–98 summer simulations of Greenland ice sheet surface climate are made with the 0.5°-horizontal resolution HIRHAM regional climate model of the Arctic. The model output is compared with meteorological and energy ...

Jason E. Box; Annette Rinke

2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The recent US National Academies report “Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability” was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive ...

Ben P. Kirtman; Dughong Min; Johnna M. Infanti; James L. Kinter III; Daniel A. Paolino; Qin Zhang; Huug van den Dool; Suranjana Saha; Malaquias Pena Mendez; Emily Becker; Peitao Peng; Patrick Tripp; Jin Huang; David G. DeWitt; Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li; Anthony Rosati; Siegfried D. Schubert; Michele Rienecker; Max Suarez; Zhao E. Li; Jelena Marshak; Young-Kwon Lim; Joseph Tribbia; Kathleen Pegion; William J. Merryfield; Bertrand Denis; Eric F. Wood

455

Predictability and reduced order modeling in stochastic reaction networks.  

SciTech Connect

Many systems involving chemical reactions between small numbers of molecules exhibit inherent stochastic variability. Such stochastic reaction networks are at the heart of processes such as gene transcription, cell signaling or surface catalytic reactions, which are critical to bioenergy, biomedical, and electrical storage applications. The underlying molecular reactions are commonly modeled with chemical master equations (CMEs), representing jump Markov processes, or stochastic differential equations (SDEs), rather than ordinary differential equations (ODEs). As such reaction networks are often inferred from noisy experimental data, it is not uncommon to encounter large parametric uncertainties in these systems. Further, a wide range of time scales introduces the need for reduced order representations. Despite the availability of mature tools for uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and reduced order modeling in deterministic systems, there is a lack of robust algorithms for such analyses in stochastic systems. In this talk, we present advances in algorithms for predictability and reduced order representations for stochastic reaction networks and apply them to bistable systems of biochemical interest. To study the predictability of a stochastic reaction network in the presence of both parametric uncertainty and intrinsic variability, an algorithm was developed to represent the system state with a spectral polynomial chaos (PC) expansion in the stochastic space representing parametric uncertainty and intrinsic variability. Rather than relying on a non-intrusive collocation-based Galerkin projection [1], this PC expansion is obtained using Bayesian inference, which is ideally suited to handle noisy systems through its probabilistic formulation. To accommodate state variables with multimodal distributions, an adaptive multiresolution representation is used [2]. As the PC expansion directly relates the state variables to the uncertain parameters, the formulation lends itself readily to sensitivity analysis. Reduced order modeling in the time dimension is accomplished using a Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition of the stochastic process in terms of the eigenmodes of its covariance matrix. Subsequently, a Rosenblatt transformation relates the random variables in the KL decomposition to a set of independent random variables, allowing the representation of the system state with a PC expansion in those independent random variables. An adaptive clustering method is used to handle multimodal distributions efficiently, and is well suited for high-dimensional spaces. The spectral representation of the stochastic reaction networks makes these systems more amenable to analysis, enabling a detailed understanding of their functionality, and robustness under experimental data uncertainty and inherent variability.

Najm, Habib N.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Sargsyan, Khachik

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

The Dark Gravity model predictions for Gravity Probe B  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The previous version of this article gave erroneous predictions. The correct uptodate predictions can be found in the section devoted to gravitomagnetism in the living review of the Dark Gravity theory: gr-qc/0610079 The most natural prediction is zero frame dragging and the same geodetic effect as predicted by GR. However, a straightforward extension of the theory could lead to the same frame-dragging as in GR.

Frederic Henry-Couannier

2005-09-05T23:59:59.000Z

457

Parameterizing Mesoscale Wind Uncertainty for Dispersion Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A parameterization of numerical weather prediction uncertainty is presented for use by atmospheric transport and dispersion models. The theoretical development applies Taylor dispersion concepts to diagnose dispersion metrics from numerical wind ...

Leonard J. Peltier; Sue Ellen Haupt; John C. Wyngaard; David R. Stauffer; Aijun Deng; Jared A. Lee; Kerrie J. Long; Andrew J. Annunzio

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite overall improvements in numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, large short-term forecast errors of sea level pressure and 2-m temperature still occur. This is especially true for the west coast of North America where short-...

Lynn A. McMurdie; Joseph H. Casola

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Subscribers to the NOAA Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The identity and characteristics of users of existing climate predictions (monthly and seasonal) as inputs to decision making am described. Subscribers to the NOAA Climate Analysis Center's Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook (MSWO) are surveyed ...

William E. Easterling

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variety of measures are used to judge the skill and accuracy with which forecasters predict the weather and to verify forecasts: Such measures can confound accuracy with decision strategy and sometimes give conflicting indications of ...

Lewis O. Harvey Jr.; Kenneth R. Hammond; Cynthia M. Lusk; Ernest F. Mross

1992-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather June 22, 2010 - 3:46pm Addthis Trident Technical College in Charleston, SC., has added another sustainability component to its curriculum: weatherization. A program already filled with renewable energy courses, TTC Green, now offers training and certification for technicians. This training, available for anyone from novices to the experienced, teaches how to weatherize the diverse array of homes in the muggy Charleston area to be more energy efficient. Two of the school's continuing education courses, both under three weeks in length, offer certification to individuals with weatherization backgrounds, giving them additional credentials and skills in the industry. TTC Green

462

Development and Testing of Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Part I: Greenland Ice Sheet Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A polar-optimized version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was developed to fill climate and synoptic needs of the polar science community and to achieve an ...

Keith M. Hines; David H. Bromwich

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

High-Resolution Spatial Modeling of Daily Weather Elements for a Catchment in the Oregon Cascade Mountains, United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

High-quality, daily meteorological data at high spatial resolution are essential for a variety of hydrologic and ecological modeling applications that support environmental risk assessments and decision making. This paper describes the ...

Christopher Daly; Jonathan W. Smith; Joseph I. Smith; Robert B. McKane

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Development of a Limited-Area Model for Operational Weather Forecasting around a Power Plant: The Need for Specialized Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A hydrostatic meteorological model, “PMETEO,” was developed for short-range forecasts for a high-resolution limited area located in the northwest region of Spain. Initial and lateral boundary conditions are externally provided by a coarse-mesh ...

C. F. Balseiro; M. J. Souto; E. Penabad; J. A. Souto; V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

2002-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

An Objective Comparison of Model Output Statistics and “Perfect Prog” Systems in Producing Numerical Weather Element Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The “perfect prog” (PP) and model output statistics (MOS) approaches were used to develop multiple linear regression equations to forecast probabilities of more than a trace of precipitation over 6-h periods, probabilities of precipitation ...

N. Brunet; R. Verret; N. Yacowar

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Bayesian Model Averaging’s Problematic Treatment of Extreme Weather and a Paradigm Shift That Fixes It  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Methods of ensemble postprocessing in which continuous probability density functions are constructed from ensemble forecasts by centering functions around each of the ensemble members have come to be called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or “...

Craig H. Bishop; Kevin T. Shanley

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Constrained model predictive control implementation for a heavy-duty gas turbine power plant  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, model predictive control (MPC) strategy is implemented to a GE9001E gas turbine power plant. A linear model is developed for the gas turbine using conventional mathematical models and ARX identification procedure. Also a process control ... Keywords: ARX, PID, gas turbine, identification, modeling, multivariable control, power plant, predictive control

Hadi Ghorbani; Ali Ghaffari; Mehdi Rahnama

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Nonlinear model predictive control for dosing daily anticancer agents using a novel saturating-rate cell-cycle model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithm was developed to dose the chemotherapeutic agent tamoxifen based on a novel saturating-rate, cell-cycle model (SCM). Using daily tumor measurements, the algorithm decreased tumor volume along a specified ... Keywords: Biomedical systems, Cancer, Nonlinear model, Nonlinear model predictive control, Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics

Jeffry A. Florian, Jr.; Julie L. Eiseman; Robert S. Parker

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

The Drying Out of Soil Moisture following Rainfall in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model and Implications for Malaria Prediction in West Africa  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper investigates the response of the land surface and the lowest section of the atmospheric surface layer to rainfall events and through the subsequent drying out period. The impacts of these sequences of rainfall and drying events in ...

Xuefeng Cui; Douglas J. Parker; Andrew P. Morse

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a new-generation numerical weather prediction model for application to short-term wind energy prediction.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Wind power is a growing economy and science. It has far reaching consequences in all aspects of society and if goals of energy sustainability and… (more)

[No author

471

Cointegration of the Daily Electric Power System Load and the Weather  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The paper examines the cointegration of the daily electric power system load and the weather by a field intelligent system. The daily load has been modelled by dynamic regressions. A "Daily Artificial Dispather" thermal intelligent system has been costructed. Time and energy tests have been obtained for this intelligent system. The improvement in the daily load forecast, achieved by this intelligent system, has been obtained. The predicted daily electricity price has been found.

Stefanov, Stefan Z

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Probabilistic Weather Prediction with an Analog Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores an analog-based method to generate an ensemble (analog ensemble, AnEn) in which the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere is estimated with a set of past observations that correspond to the best analogs ...

Luca Delle Monache; F. Anthony Eckel; Daran L. Rife; Badrinath Nagarajan; Keith Searight

473

Probabilistic Weather Prediction with an Analog Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores an analog-based method to generate an ensemble [analog ensemble (AnEn)] in which the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere is estimated with a set of past observations that correspond to the best ...

Luca Delle Monache; F. Anthony Eckel; Daran L. Rife; Badrinath Nagarajan; Keith Searight

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Cold Weather Hazards  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

0 0 Cold Weather Hazards June 2010 NSA_cwh_Rev10.doc 1 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility/ North Slope of Alaska/Adjacent Arctic Ocean (ACRF/NSA/AAO) Cold Weather Hazards Winter Conditions at the North Slope of Alaska The North Slope of Alaska is north of the Arctic Circle at latitudes ranging from 69 to 72 degrees. Barrow, the largest town on the North Slope (pop. 4500), is the site of a National Weather Service Station, which has been active for several decades, so the climatology of the Alaska arctic coastal region as represented by Barrow is relatively well known. The North Slope is covered with ice and snow typically eight months of the year (October-May). During part of November, all of December, and most of January, the sun does not come above the horizon; this

475

The Emergence of Weather-Related Testbeds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Testbeds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and ...

F. Martin Ralph; Janet Intrieri; David Andra; Jr.; Robert Atlas; Sid Boukabara; David Bright; Paula Davidson; Bruce Entwistle; John Gaynor; Steve Goodman; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Amy Harless; Jin Huang; Gary Jedlovec; John Kain; Steven Koch; Bill Kuo; Jason Levit; Shirley Murillo; Lars Peter Riishojgaard; Timothy Schneider; Russell Schneider; Travis Smith; Steven Weiss

476

The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Test beds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and ...

F. Martin Ralph; Janet Intrieri; David Andra Jr.; Robert Atlas; Sid Boukabara; David Bright; Paula Davidson; Bruce Entwistle; John Gaynor; Steve Goodman; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Amy Harless; Jin Huang; Gary Jedlovec; John Kain; Steven Koch; Bill Kuo; Jason Levit; Shirley Murillo; Lars Peter Riishojgaard; Timothy Schneider; Russell Schneider; Travis Smith; Steven Weiss

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Influence Of Three Dynamic Predictive Clothing Insulation Models On Building Energy Use, HVAC Sizing And Thermal Comfort  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predictive Clothing Insulation Models based on Outdoor AirPREDICTIVE CLOTHING INSULATION MODELS ON BUILDING ENERGYthat the clothing insulation is equal to a constant value of

Schiavon, Stefano; Lee, Kwang Ho

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Application of Gaussian Error Propagation Principles for Theoretical Assessment of Model Uncertainty in Simulated Soil Processes Caused by Thermal and Hydraulic Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Statistical uncertainty in soil temperature and volumetric water content and related moisture and heat fluxes predicted by a state-of-the-art soil module [embedded in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model] is analyzed by Gaussian error-...

Nicole Mölders; Mihailo Jankov; Gerhard Kramm

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Prediction of Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Using Linear Inverse Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales by linear inverse modeling is quantified. The authors find that predictability of Caribbean Sea and north tropical Atlantic sea surface ...

Cécile Penland; Ludmila Matrosova

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

A Comparison of General Circulation Model Predictions to Sand Drift and Dune Orientations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The growing concern over climate change and desertification stresses the importance of aeolian process prediction. In this paper the use of a general circulation model to predict current aeolian features is examined. A GCM developed at NASA/...

Dan G. Blumberg; Ronald Greeley

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "weather prediction models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Southeast US Rainfall prediction in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The present study investigates the predictive skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System for Intra-seasonal to Interannual (ISI) Prediction with focus on southeast US precipitation. The southeast US is of particular interest ...

Johnna M. Infanti; Ben P. Kirtman

482

Predictability of SST in a Stochastic Climate Model and Its Application to the Kuroshio Extension Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of deterministic forcing on SST predictability is investigated in a zero-dimensional, stochastic, coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. The SST anomaly predictability time is found to be very sensitive to the properties of the ...

Robert B. Scott; Bo Qiu

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Implementation of the Cloud Prediction Scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An explicit cloud prediction scheme has been developed and incorporated into the Eta Model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to improve the cloud and precipitation forecasts. In this scheme, the cloud liquid water and ...

Qingyun Zhao; Thomas L. Black; Michael E. Baldwin

1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Use of a Mixed-Layer Model to Investigate Problems in Operational Prediction of Return Flow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Inaccuracy in the numerical prediction of the moisture content of return-flow air over the Gulf of Mexico continues to plague operational forecasters. At the Environmental Modeling Center/National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the ...

John M. Lewis

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

The Impact of Tropical Forcing on Extratropical Predictability in a Simple Global Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of tropical forcing on the predictability of the extratropical atmosphere is studied. Using a two-layer spectral model, numerical experiments and diagnostic analyses have been carried out to examine the enhancement of predictability ...

Jianchun Qin; Walter A. Robinson

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

The Nature of Predictability Enhancement in a Low-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A low-order moist general circulation model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is reexamined to determine the source of short-term predictability enhancement that occurs when an oceanic circulation is activated. The predictability enhancement ...

Jon M. Nese; Arthur J. Miller; John A. Dutton

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

News News Site Map Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News to someone by E-mail Share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News on Facebook Tweet about Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News on Twitter Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News on Google Bookmark Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News on Delicious Rank Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News on Digg Find More places to share Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: News on AddThis.com... News December 9, 2013 Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization Since 2009, when the Energy Department seized a major opportunity to invest $5 billion through our Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) to stimulate

488

The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model ...

Paltsev, Sergey.

489

A Forward Looking Version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper documents a forward looking multi-regional general equilibrium model developed from the latest version of the recursive-dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The model represents ...

Babiker, Mustafa M.H.

490

An Efficient Stochastic Bayesian Approach to Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation for Climate Model Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One source of uncertainty for climate model predictions arises from the fact that climate models have been optimized to reproduce observational means. To quantify the uncertainty resulting from a realistic range of model configurations, it is ...

Charles Jackson; Mrinal K. Sen; Paul L. Stoffa

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Workstation-Based Real-Time Mesoscale Modeling Designed for Weather Support to Operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape ...

John Manobianco; Gregory E. Taylor; John W. Zack

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Model Predictive Control for the Operation of Building Cooling Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predictive control of thermal energy storage in buildingsystems which use thermal energy storage. In particular thepredictive control of thermal energy storage in building

Ma, Yudong

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Advances in Radiative Transfer Modeling in Support of Satellite Data Assimilation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Development of fast and accurate radiative transfer models for clear atmospheric conditions has enabled direct assimilation of clear-sky radiances from satellites in numerical weather prediction models. In this article, fast radiative transfer ...

Fuzhong Weng

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

A More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion Model Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble forecast is used as input to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to study the effect that analysis errors in the numerical weather prediction assimilation cycle have on dispersion modeling. The wind and temperature fields from a ...

Anne Grete Straume

2001-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

An Investigation of an Arctic Front with a Vertically Nested Mesoscale Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A vertically mesoscale regional numerical weather prediction model is used to simulate an arctic front. The front was observed during the Arctic Cyclone Expedition of 1984. The regional model employs a unique vertical nesting scheme in which the ...

William T. Thompson; Stephen D. Burk

1991-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Evaluation of the CLM4 Lake Model at a Large and Shallow Freshwater Lake  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Models of lake physical processes provide the lower flux boundary conditions for numerical predictions of weather and climate in lake basins. So far, there have been few studies on evaluating lake model performance at the diurnal time scale and ...

Bin Deng; Shoudong Liu; Wei Xiao; Wei Wang; Jiming Jin; Xuhui Lee

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Alternative Formulations for Incorporating Lateral Boundary Data into Limited-Area Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Limited-area models (LAMs) use higher resolutions and more advanced parameterizations of physical processes than global numerical weather prediction models, but suffer from one additional source of error—the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The ...

Martina Tudor; Piet Termonia

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Data Assimilation as Synchronization of Truth and Model: Experiments with the Three-Variable Lorenz System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential use of chaos synchronization techniques in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction models is explored by coupling a Lorenz three-variable system that represents “truth” to another that represents “the model.” By adding ...

Shu-Chih Yang; Debra Baker; Hong Li; Katy Cordes; Morgan Huff; Geetika Nagpal; Ena Okereke; Josue Villafañe; Eugenia Kalnay; Gregory S. Duane

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Evaluation of Snowpack Simulations over the Canadian Rockies with an Experimental Hydrometeorological Modeling System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To improve the representation of the land surface in their operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the Meteorological Research Division of Environment Canada (EC) is developing an external hydrometeorological modeling and data ...

Marco L. Carrera; Stéphane Bélair; Vincent Fortin; Bernard Bilodeau; Dorothée Charpentier; Isabelle Doré

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

STRUCTURE-BASED PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR COAL CHAR COMBUSTION  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past quarter of this project, significant progress continued was made on both major technical tasks. Progress was made at OSU on advancing the application of computational chemistry to oxidative attack on model polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and graphitic structures. This work is directed at the application of quantitative ab initio molecular orbital theory to address the decomposition products and mechanisms of coal char reactivity. Previously, it was shown that the ?hybrid? B3LYP method can be used to provide quantitative information concerning the stability of the corresponding radicals that arise by hydrogen atom abstraction from monocyclic aromatic rings. In the most recent quarter, these approaches have been extended to larger carbocyclic ring systems, such as coronene, in order to compare the properties of a large carbonaceous PAH to that of the smaller, monocyclic aromatic systems. It was concluded that, at least for bond dissociation energy considerations, the properties of the large PAHs can be modeled reasonably well by smaller systems. In addition to the preceding work, investigations were initiated on the interaction of selected radicals in the ?radical pool? with the different types of aromatic structures. In particular, the different pathways for addition vs. abstraction to benzene and furan by H and OH radicals were examined. Thus far, the addition channel appears to be significantly favored over abstraction on both kinetic and thermochemical grounds. Experimental work at Brown University in support of the development of predictive structural models of coal char combustion was focused on elucidating the role of coal mineral matter impurities on reactivity. An ?inverse? approach was used where a carbon material was doped with coal mineral matter. The carbon material was derived from a high carbon content fly ash (Fly Ash 23 from the Salem Basin Power Plant. The ash was obtained from Pittsburgh #8 coal (PSOC 1451). Doped samples were then burned in a high temperature flame reactor fitted with rapid quench extractive sampling. It was found that the specific reaction rate decreased with increasing ash content by about an order of magnitude over the ash content range investigated. In this case, it was concluded that at least one of the primary reasons for the resultant observation was that an increasing amount of carbon becomes inaccessible to oxygen by being covered with a fused, ?protective,? ash layer. Progress continued on equipment modification and testing for the combustion experiments with widely varying flame types at OSU.

CHRISTOPHER M. HADAD; JOSEPH M. CALO; ROBERT H. ESSENHIGH; ROBERT H. HURT

1998-06-04T23:59:59.000Z