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Sample records for weather forecasts model

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  2. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  4. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  5. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  6. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  7. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  8. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  9. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  10. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  11. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  12. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  13. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  14. Weather | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Princeton, New Jersey, weather forecast Click here for more extensive PPPL weather information.

  15. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  16. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  17. ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

    2009-01-15

    During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher resolution real-time model simulations possible, the need to obtain observations to both initialize numerical models and verify their output has become increasingly important. The assimilation of high resolution radar observations therefore provides a vital component in the development and utility of numerical model forecasts for both weather forecasting and contaminant transport, including future opportunities to improve wet deposition computations explicitly.

  18. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  19. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  20. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  1. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Observations improve space weather models Observations and simulations improve space weather models Researchers used data from the Van Allen Probes to improve a three-dimensional model created by Los Alamos scientists called DREAM3D. June 25, 2014 NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. The work demonstrated that DREAM3D accurately simulated the behavior of a complex and dynamic event in the radiation belt that was

  2. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Observations improve space weather models Observations and simulations improve space weather models Researchers used data from the Van Allen Probes to improve a three-dimensional model created by Los Alamos scientists called DREAM3D. June 25, 2014 NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. The work demonstrated that DREAM3D accurately simulated the behavior of a complex and dynamic event in the radiation belt that was

  3. Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and the variations in atmospheric conditions that produce weather. The Weather Machine, LANL's meteorological monitoring program, supports Laboratory operations and...

  4. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  5. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Judith

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  6. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  7. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  8. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  9. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  10. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  11. weather | National Nuclear Security Administration

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    weather

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  13. Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

    2009-12-01

    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  14. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  15. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  16. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  17. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  19. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  20. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  1. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  2. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  3. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    is an operational data assimilation system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ...

  4. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    develop ever-more sophisticated computer models to predict the effects of climate change, one of the things they'll look for are changes in the frequency of extreme weather...

  5. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  6. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  7. An Inupiat Weather Report

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An Iñupiat Weather Report Grades: 6 th - 8 th Duration: 2-3 hours of class time. Time for students to prepare their reports: 1 week. Objectives: The objective of this lesson is for students to correctly use the Iñupiat language using weather related vocabulary, numbers, and days of the week. Students will prepare a weather forecast and present it as if they were on a television news program. The forecast must be entirely in the Iñupiat language. Alaska State Content Standards:

  8. PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    San Francisco, CA, A41F-01. Fast JD, JC Doran, JC Barnard, S Springs ton, L Klein man, L Emmons, C Wiedinmyer. 2007. "Predictions of aerosols downwind of Mexico City using a...

  9. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  10. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  11. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models Berkeley Lab scientists help automate the search for hurricanes and other storms in huge datasets December 7, 2011 Dan Krotz, dakrotz@lbl.gov, +1 510-486-4019 You'd think that spotting a category 5 hurricane would never be difficult. But when the hurricane is in a global climate model that spans several decades, it becomes a fleeting wisp among mountains of data. That's a

  12. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  13. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  14. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  15. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  16. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  17. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  18. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  19. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  20. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  1. Runtime System Library for Parallel Weather Modules

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1997-07-22

    RSL is a Fortran-callable runtime library for use in implementing regular-grid weather forecast models, with nesting, on scalable distributed memory parallel computers. It provides high-level routines for finite-difference stencil communications and inter-domain exchange of data for nested forcing and feedback. RSL supports a unique point-wise domain-decomposition strategy to facilitate load-balancing.

  2. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2007-01-01

    We present a speculative extrapolation of the performance aspects of an atmospheric general circulation model to ultra-high resolution and describe alternative technological paths to realize integration of such a model in the relatively near future. Due to a superlinear scaling of the computational burden dictated by stability criterion, the solution of the equations of motion dominate the calculation at ultra-high resolutions. From this extrapolation, it is estimated that a credible kilometer scale atmospheric model would require at least a sustained ten petaflop computer to provide scientifically useful climate simulations. Our design study portends an alternate strategy for practical power-efficient implementations of petaflop scale systems. Embedded processor technology could be exploited to tailor a custom machine designed to ultra-high climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. The major conceptual changes required by a kilometer scale climate model are certain to be difficult to implement. Although the hardware, software, and algorithms are all equally critical in conducting ultra-high climate resolution studies, it is likely that the necessary petaflop computing technology will be available in advance of a credible kilometer scale climate model.

  3. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  4. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  5. Winter Weather Outlook

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    0 Winter Weather Outlook With the chill of colder temperatures in the air, we can rest assured that the icy grips of winter are just around the corner. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a specialized part of the National Weather Service (NWS), has issued its annual winter outlook for the 2000-2001 winter season. The CPC, located in Camp Springs, Maryland, is a government agency that focuses its predictions on Earth's climate. In comparison to the NWS forecasts of short-term weather events,

  6. Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter & Hurricane Jefferson Lab's Emergency Management Severe Weather Team continues monitoring the forecasts and conditions...

  7. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  8. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  9. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  11. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  12. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  13. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (HumanEarth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  14. Weather - Local Information - Radiation Effects Facility / Cyclotron

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Institute / Texas A&M University Weather Weather in College Station can vary from hot and humid in the summer to cool and dry in the winter. The average high for january is 60 degrees while the average low is 40 degrees. For july the average high is 95 while the average low is 72. Please check the weather forecast before traveling as conditions sometimes vary greatly from day to day especially in the fall and spring. Current Weather:

  15. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

  16. Data Network Weather Service Reporting - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael Frey

    2012-08-30

    A final report is made of a three-year effort to develop a new forecasting paradigm for computer network performance. This effort was made in co-ordination with Fermi Lab's construction of e-Weather Center.

  17. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  18. Weatherization Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Residences participating in the Home Energy Rebate or New Home Rebate Program may not also participate in the Weatherization Program.

  19. Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment (Dataset) | Data Explorer Data Explorer Search Results Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment Title: Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment ECMWF derived diagnostic variables over MAGIC's ship path from Los Angeles, CA and Honolulu, HI. Two dimensional (time and height) slices were extracted once the

  20. Using Mesoscale Weather Model Output as Boundary Conditions for Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulations and Wind-Plant Aerodynamic Simulations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Churchfield, M. J.; Michalakes, J.; Vanderwende, B.; Lee, S.; Sprague, M. A.; Lundquist, J. K.; Moriarty, P. J.

    2013-10-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are directly affected by the microscale weather, which is directly influenced by the mesoscale weather. Microscale weather refers to processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer with the largest scales being a few hundred meters to a few kilometers depending on the atmospheric stability of the boundary layer. Mesoscale weather refers to large weather patterns, such as weather fronts, with the largest scales being hundreds of kilometers wide. Sometimes microscale simulations that capture mesoscale-driven variations (changes in wind speed and direction over time or across the spatial extent of a wind plant) are important in wind plant analysis. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in coupling a mesoscale weather model with a microscale atmospheric large-eddy simulation model. The coupling is one-way beginning with the weather model and ending with a computational fluid dynamics solver using the weather model in coarse large-eddy simulation mode as an intermediary. We simulate one hour of daytime moderately convective microscale development driven by the mesoscale data, which are applied as initial and boundary conditions to the microscale domain, at a site in Iowa. We analyze the time and distance necessary for the smallest resolvable microscales to develop.

  1. DREAM tool increases space weather predictions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DREAM tool increases space weather predictions DREAM tool increases space weather predictions Model addresses radiation hazards of the space environment on space systems. April 13, ...

  2. ARM - Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    TeachersTopic ListWeather Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Weather Weather refers to short-term changes in atmospheric conditions or elements. Here, short-term means that the changes taking place over a matter of seconds, minutes, or hours, or from day to day. It is a term

  3. Commercial Weatherization

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Commercial buildings consume 19 percent of the energy used in the U.S. Learn how the Energy Department is supporting research and deployment on commercial weatherization.

  4. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  5. Weatherization Roundup

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    More than 750 thousand homes were weatherized by the Department’s Weatherization Assistance Program in the past three years. Secretary Chu spoke with governors and members of Congress around the country to celebrate this huge accomplishment -- which was finished ahead of schedule and is saving the average household $400 annually on their heating and cooling bills.

  6. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  7. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  8. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  9. Weatherizing America

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Stewart, Zachary; Bergeron, T.J.; Barth, Dale; Qualis, Xavier; Sewall, Travis; Fransen, Richard; Gill, Tony;

    2013-05-29

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working again, but also to find a calling.

  10. Weatherizing America

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working...

  11. Weatherization Update

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Weatherization Update NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Objectives & Overview Presentation Objectives: * Brief background on the program * Update on New Initiatives for Weatherization Overview 1. Background 2. ARRA - Expanded provisions 3. Expansion of Traditional Service 4. Training & Technical Assistance Plan NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

  12. ARM - Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SitesWeather Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Weather Air Quality Meteorology This website features a course for environmental decision-makers, scientists, technical advisors, and educators. The course is introduces basic concepts of meteorology and air quality necessary to

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  16. Inupiat Weather Expertise Lesson.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iñupiat Weather Expertise Grades: 5 th - 7 th Duration: 1 week of class time. 1 hour of class time a day. If the class can do activity 2, half an hour a day for a month of classtime is needed. Objectives: The objective of this lesson is for students to learn some weather related traditional knowledge by inviting an elder into the classroom, and to document this knowledge. Also, the students are to prepare a weather forecast and present it as if they were on a television news program. The

  17. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  18. DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrison, PI Hugh

    2012-09-21

    This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their advisor).

  19. An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    geometry of leakage pathways. We have implemented a SCP model described in the literature, which yields an estimate of the depth of the leakage source and the effective...

  20. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  1. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  2. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (Fact Sheet), Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    a Weatherization Innovation grant of 1.5 million to weatherize 336 low-income homes. ... simultaneously, provided at a lower cost than if each service was administered separately. ...

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Why it makes sense for one technical college in Charleston, South Carolina is adding weatherization programs to their curriculum.

  5. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  6. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Zoi, Cath

    2013-05-29

    Right now, the Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  7. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  8. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  9. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Upon completion, these new physics packages will be incorporated into NOAA's Numerical Weather Prediction models to assess improvements in short-term and possibly day-ahead wind ...

  10. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Upon completion, these new physics packages will be incorporated into NOAA's Numerical Weather Prediction models to assess improvements in short-term and possibly day-ahead wind ...

  11. Weather - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Weather Calendar Hanford Blog Archive Search Site Feeds Site Index Weather What's New Weather Email Email Page | Print Print Page |Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size Hanford Weather as reported by NOAA. Current 62.6°F Overcast Overcast Today 86°F (50°F) Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Tomorrow 87°F (57°F) Partly Sunny Partly Sunny

  12. Weatherize | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherize Weatherize Proper insulation is just one element of weatherization that can save you money and improve the comfort and efficiency of your home. | Photo courtesy of Dennis Schroeder, NREL. Proper insulation is just one element of weatherization that can save you money and improve the comfort and efficiency of your home. | Photo courtesy of Dennis Schroeder, NREL. Weatherizing your home helps you save money by saving energy, and it can also improve the comfort of your home. Conduct a

  13. On-line Chemistry within WRF: Description and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Multiscale Air Quality and Weather Prediction Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grell, Georg; Fast, Jerome D.; Gustafson, William I.; Peckham, Steven E.; McKeen, Stuart A.; Salzmann, Marc; Freitas, Saulo

    2010-01-01

    This is a conference proceeding that is now being put together as a book. This is chapter 2 of the book: "INTEGRATED SYSTEMS OF MESO-METEOROLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELS" published by Springer. The chapter title is "On-line Chemistry within WRF: Description and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Multiscale Air Quality and Weather Prediction Model." The original conference was the COST-728/NetFAM workshop on Integrated systems of meso-meteorological and chemical transport models, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, May 21-23, 2007.

  14. High Resolution Atmospheric Modeling for Wind Energy Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpson, M; Bulaevskaya, V; Glascoe, L; Singer, M

    2010-03-18

    The ability of the WRF atmospheric model to forecast wind speed over the Nysted wind park was investigated as a function of time. It was found that in the time period we considered (August 1-19, 2008), the model is able to predict wind speeds reasonably accurately for 48 hours ahead, but that its forecast skill deteriorates rapidly after 48 hours. In addition, a preliminary analysis was carried out to investigate the impact of vertical grid resolution on the forecast skill. Our preliminary finding is that increasing vertical grid resolution does not have a significant impact on the forecast skill of the WRF model over Nysted wind park during the period we considered. Additional simulations during this period, as well as during other time periods, will be run in order to validate the results presented here. Wind speed is a difficult parameter to forecast due the interaction of large and small length scale forcing. To accurately forecast the wind speed at a given location, the model must correctly forecast the movement and strength of synoptic systems, as well as the local influence of topography / land use on the wind speed. For example, small deviations in the forecast track or strength of a large-scale low pressure system can result in significant forecast errors for local wind speeds. The purpose of this study is to provide a preliminary baseline of a high-resolution limited area model forecast performance against observations from the Nysted wind park. Validating the numerical weather prediction model performance for past forecasts will give a reasonable measure of expected forecast skill over the Nysted wind park. Also, since the Nysted Wind Park is over water and some distance from the influence of terrain, the impact of high vertical grid spacing for wind speed forecast skill will also be investigated.

  15. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  16. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  17. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  18. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  19. The Impact of Weatherization

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Weatherization Assistance Program under the Recovery Act is making a serious impact in savings this summer.

  20. Weather-Resistive Barriers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2000-10-01

    How to select and install housewrap and other types of weather-resistive barriers: Building Technology Fact Sheet

  1. Weatherization Assistance Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This fact sheet provides an overview of the U.S. Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program.

  2. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  4. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  5. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  6. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  7. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  8. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  9. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  10. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    a widely used weather prediction system. These new wind measurements and simulations will also be incorporated into NOAA's Numerical Weather Prediction models to improve ...

  11. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  12. Home Weatherization Visit

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Chu, Steven

    2013-05-29

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits of weatherization and how funding from the recovery act is having a direct impact in communities across America.

  13. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in...

  14. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia;

    2013-05-29

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

  15. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  16. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  17. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  18. Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issues grants to states, territories, and some Indian tribes to improve the energy efficiency of low-income...

  19. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  20. Home Weatherization Visit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits...

  1. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Calore, Joe

    2013-05-29

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  2. The Impact of IBM Cell Technology on the Programming Paradigm in the Context of Computer Systems for Climate and Weather Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Shujia; Duffy, Daniel; Clune, Thomas; Suarez, Max; Williams, Samuel; Halem, Milton

    2009-01-10

    The call for ever-increasing model resolutions and physical processes in climate and weather models demands a continual increase in computing power. The IBM Cell processor's order-of-magnitude peak performance increase over conventional processors makes it very attractive to fulfill this requirement. However, the Cell's characteristics, 256KB local memory per SPE and the new low-level communication mechanism, make it very challenging to port an application. As a trial, we selected the solar radiation component of the NASA GEOS-5 climate model, which: (1) is representative of column physics components (half the total computational time), (2) has an extremely high computational intensity: the ratio of computational load to main memory transfers, and (3) exhibits embarrassingly parallel column computations. In this paper, we converted the baseline code (single-precision Fortran) to C and ported it to an IBM BladeCenter QS20. For performance, we manually SIMDize four independent columns and include several unrolling optimizations. Our results show that when compared with the baseline implementation running on one core of Intel's Xeon Woodcrest, Dempsey, and Itanium2, the Cell is approximately 8.8x, 11.6x, and 12.8x faster, respectively. Our preliminary analysis shows that the Cell can also accelerate the dynamics component (~;;25percent total computational time). We believe these dramatic performance improvements make the Cell processor very competitive as an accelerator.

  3. HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC ENSEMBLE MODELING AT SRNL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.; Werth, D.; Chiswell, S.; Etherton, B.

    2011-05-10

    The High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) is a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members. Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system is produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information are performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results available from the RENCI website.

  4. DOPPLER WEATHER SYSTEM

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-08-05

    The SRS Doppler Weather System consists of a Doppler Server, A Master Server (also known as the Weather Server), several Doppler Slave Servers, and client-side software program called the Doppler Radar Client. This system is used to display near rel-time images taken from the SRS Weather Center's Doppler Radar computer. The Doppler Server is software that resides on the SRS Doppler Computer. It gathers raw data, 24-bit color weather images via screen scraping ever fivemore » minutes as requested by the Master Server. The Doppler Server then reduces the 24-bit color images to 8-bit color using a fixed color table for analysis and compression. This preserves the fidelity of the image color and arranges the colors in specific order for display. At the time of color reduction, the white color used for the city names on the background images are remapped to a different index (color) of white that the white on the weather scale. The Weather Server places a time stamp on the image, then compresses the image and passes it to all Doppler Slave servers. Each of the Doppler Slave servers mainitain a circular buffer of the eight most current images representing the last 40 minutes of weather data. As a new image is added, the oldest drops off. The Doppler Radar Client is an optional install program for any site-wide workstation. When a Client session is started, the Client requests Doppler Slave server assignment from the Master Server. Upon its initial request to the Slave Server, the Client obtains all eight current images and maintains its own circular buffer, updating its images every five minutes as the Doppler Slave is updated. Three background reference images are stored as part of the Client. The Client brings up the appropriate background image, decompresses the doppler data, and displays the doppler data on the background image.« less

  5. Microsoft Word - Argonne_WindPowerForecasting_Report_Final_Nov...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    R.A. Anthes and T.T. Warner, "Development of hydrodynamic models suitable for air pollution and other mesometeorological studies," Monthly Weather Review, vol. 106, pp....

  6. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets October 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Weather Sensitivity in Natural Gas Markets i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  9. Weather Photos - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hanford Meteorological Station Weather Photos Hanford Meteorological Station Photo Gallery Email Email Page | Print Print Page |Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size Hanford Meteorological Service Search Search Search Filter: Hanford Meteorological Service All Galleries 284 East Explosive Demolition Settlers B Reactor 100DX Groundwater Treatment Facility 100HX Groundwater Treatment Facility 200 West Groundwater Treatment Facility Construction 200 West Groundwater Treatment LEED Facility

  10. Portland Diversifying Weatherization Workforce

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    An agreement signed by a diverse group of stakeholders ensures that those in disadvantaged communities have access to some of the weatherization jobs stemming from the pilot phase of the Clean Energy Works Portland program, which has almost 500 homes receiving retrofits through the summer with the help of federal dollars.

  11. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  12. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  13. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 16-XX EFFECTIVE DATE: SUBJECT: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    6-XX EFFECTIVE DATE: SUBJECT: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION PURPOSE: To provide Grantees with consolidated guidance on previously issued Weatherization Program Notices (WPNs) on weatherizing multifamily buildings in the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This supersedes WPN 10-7 and WPN 11-9 SCOPE: The provisions of this guidance apply to Grantees applying for financial assistance under the Department of Energy (DOE) WAP. LEGAL AUTHORITY: Title IV, Energy Conservation and Production Act, as

  14. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  15. Grandma's House (Weatherization) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grandma's House (Weatherization) Grandma's House (Weatherization) Addthis When you weatherize a home it needs to work as a system. Learn more here

  16. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  17. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  18. Lidar-measured winds from space: A key component for weather and climate prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, W.E.; Emmitt, G.D.; Robertson, F.

    1995-06-01

    The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substantially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncertainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone. 99 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  20. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  1. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  2. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  3. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  4. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  5. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hollander, A.

    2014-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

  6. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript This...

  7. Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Recognition | Department of Energy Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National Recognition Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National Recognition May 6, 2014 - 12:24pm Addthis Donna Hawkins Technology Transfer Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program Harris Walker Communications Specialist, Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program MORE WEATHERIZATION STORIES Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs through Weatherization

  8. WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET Form is designed to gather specific detail related to the expenditures of the Weatherization grant. PDF icon WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET More Documents & Publications DOE F 540.3 WPN 06-3: Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Instructions and Forms WPN 04-4: Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Package and Reporting Format

  9. National Weatherization Assistance Program Impact Evaluation: Weatherization Staff Survey

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carroll, David; Berger, Jacqueline; Miller, Carolyn; Johnson, Daya Bill

    2015-02-01

    This report presents results from a national survey of a representative sample of local weatherization staff -- auditors, crew chiefs, crew members.

  10. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  11. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  12. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  13. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  14. The Impact of Spatial Resolution on Model-Derived Radiative Heating

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Impact of Spatial Resolution on Model-Derived Radiative Heating W. O'Hirok and C. Gautier Institute for Computational Earth System Science University of California Santa Barbara, California C. Gautier Department of Geography University of California Santa Barbara, California Introduction At the typical spatial resolution of climate and weather forecasting models, clouds are portrayed as uniform plane-parallel entities with three-dimensional (3D) radiative effects generally considered not

  15. Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model M. J. Iacono, J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, and S. A. Clough Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington, Massachusetts J.-J. Morcrette European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading, United Kingdom Introduction An important step toward improving radiative transfer codes in general circulation models (GCMs) is their thorough evaluation by comparison to measurements directly, or

  16. Multifamily Weatherization Frequently Asked Questions

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... spaces (church basement used for gym during the week but shelter on the weekend). ... Before weatherization of rental units, Grantees are required by DOE regulations (10 CFR ...

  17. Aleutian Pribilof Islands Weatherization Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Aleutian Pribilof islands Weatherization project Presented by: ken Selby, Community services director Annotated by: Moses Tcheripanoff, MEDIA COORIDNATOR "Birthplace of the winds" ...

  18. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  19. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  20. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  1. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  2. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Activities | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Activities Weatherization and Intergovernmental Activities Weatherization and Intergovernmental Activities Annual Performance Results and Targets FY 2008 Congressional Budget Microsoft Office document icon weatherization_and_intergovern_joule_results_fy08.doc More Documents & Publications EERE FY 2008-2012 Budget: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram FY 2007 Annual Performance Report

  3. Weatherization Pilot Projects | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Pilot Projects Weatherization Pilot Projects The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) supported two projects that allowed local weatherization agencies to experiment with including new and innovative materials and energy efficiency technologies provided to weatherization clients. Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Under the Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers

  4. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  5. WPN 16-5: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide Grantees with consolidated guidance on previously issued Weatherization Program Notices (WPNs) on weatherizing multifamily buildings in the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This supersedes WPN 10-7 and WPN 11-9.

  6. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  7. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  8. U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06302010 (Calendar Year) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By ...

  9. States Celebrate National Weatherization Day

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    With winter approaching, our office recently joined states and the District of Columbia in recognizing National Weatherization Day on October 30. It’s a day set aside to honor government, private, and nonprofit advocates responsible for upgrading energy efficiency in thousands of American homes. We’re proud to recognize weatherization professionals working to ensure that every American has a safe, efficient structure that’s comfortable in every season. Weatherization saves money for families, improves health and safety for home occupants, supports thousands of jobs, and reduces carbon pollution.

  10. WeatherMaker: Weather file conversion and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balcomb, J.D.

    1999-07-01

    WeatherMaker is a weather-data utility for use with the ENERGY-10 design-tool computer program. The three main features are: Convert--Weather files can be converted from one format to another. For example, a TMY2 format file can be converted to an ENERGY-10 binary file that can be used in a simulation. This binary file can then be converted to a text format that allows it to be read and/or manipulated in WordPad or Excel. Evaluate--ENERGY-10 weather files can be studied in great detail. There are 8 graphical displays of the data that provide insight into the data, and a summary tables that presents results calculated from the hourly data. Adjust--Hourly temperature data can be adjusted starting with hourly data from a nearby TMY2 site. Dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures are adjusted up or down as required to match given monthly statistics. This feature can be used to generate weather files for any of 3,958 sites in the US where such monthly statistics are tabulated. The paper shows a variety of results, explains the methods used, and discusses the rationale for making the adjustments. It is anticipated that WeatherMaker will be released by the time of the ASES Solar 99 conference.

  11. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call...

  12. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 16-XX EFFECTIVE DATE:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... AnnaMaria Garcia Program Director Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Attachment: Weatherization of Rental Units, Frequently Asked ...

  13. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mentors, Projects Lectures Papers, Reports Photos NSEC CSES Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School June 6 - July 29, 2016 Contacts Director Misa ...

  14. Weather Services International Corporation WSI | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Weather Services International Corporation WSI Jump to: navigation, search Name: Weather Services International Corporation (WSI) Place: Andover, Massachusetts Zip: 1810 Product:...

  15. State Energy Program & Weatherization Assistance Program: Update

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    eere.energy.gov AnnaMaria Garcia Acting Program Manager for DOE's Weatherization & Intergovernmental Program Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program State Energy Program & ...

  16. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call Series: ...

  17. Accounting for Unresolved Spatial Variability in Large Scale Models: Development and Evaluation of a Statistical Cloud Parameterization with Prognostic Higher Order Moments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Pincus

    2011-05-17

    This project focused on the variability of clouds that is present across a wide range of scales ranging from the synoptic to the millimeter. In particular, there is substantial variability in cloud properties at scales smaller than the grid spacing of models used to make climate projections (GCMs) and weather forecasts. These models represent clouds and other small-scale processes with parameterizations that describe how those processes respond to and feed back on the largescale state of the atmosphere.

  18. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals ... Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China and Thailand. ... public health data in one location and use it in another. ...

  19. Winter Weather Outlook

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2. Use of a human face as the modeled target. 3. Incorporation of modern heat transfer theory to model heat loss from the body and its surroundings on cold, windy days. 4. A...

  20. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  1. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  2. Survey and Analysis of Weather Data for Building Energy Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bhandari, Mahabir S; Shrestha, Som S; New, Joshua Ryan

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, calibrated energy modeling of residential and commercial buildings has gained importance in a retrofit-dominated market. Accurate weather data plays an important role in this calibration process and projected energy savings. It would be ideal to measure weather data at the building location to capture relevant microclimate variation but this is generally considered cost-prohibitive. There are data sources publicly available with high temporal sampling rates but at relatively poor geospatial sampling locations. To overcome this limitation, there are a growing number of service providers that claim to provide real time and historical weather data for 20-35 km2 grid across the globe. Unfortunately, there is limited documentation from 3rd-party sources attesting to the accuracy of this data. This paper compares provided weather characteristics with data collected from a weather station inaccessible to the service providers. Monthly average dry bulb temperature; relative humidity; direct, diffuse and horizontal solar radiation; and wind speed are statistically compared. Moreover, we ascertain the relative contributions of each weather variable and its impact on building loads. Annual simulations are calculated for three different building types, including a closely monitored and automated energy efficient research building. The comparison shows that the difference for an individual variable can be as high as 90%. In addition, annual building energy consumption can vary by 7% while monthly building loads can vary by 40% as a function of the provided location s weather data.

  3. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  4. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) success stories, news clips, and press releases.

  5. Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office authorized the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to implement the national evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program. This evaluation addressed energy and cost savings, non-energy benefits, program cost-effectiveness, and program operations for program year 2008, called the Retrospective Evaluation, and for program

  6. Explore Careers in Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Explore Careers in Weatherization EERE's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program provides grants, technical assistance, and information tools to the state energy offices of states, local governments, community action agencies, utility companies, tribal governments, and overseas U.S. territories. These programs aim to reduce market barriers to the adoption of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies while also reducing petroleum consumption. EERE's Weatherization

  7. Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Read about one weatherization training center that's looking forward to an onslaught of new trainees.

  8. Nevada Weatherizes Large-Scale Complex

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Increased energy efficiency is translating into increased productivity for one Nevada weatherization organization.

  9. Low-Income Weatherization: The Human Dimension

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation focuses on how the human dimension saves energy within low-income weatherization programs.

  10. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    With added processing power from the Department of Energy's computing facilities, SMT uses the data to pinpoint which weather prediction models are the most accurate and yield ...

  11. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  12. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  13. Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Efforts | Department of Energy Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts June 18, 2014 - 10:49am Addthis Weatherization workers are trained in the house as a system approach. The Energy Department's Weatherization Assistance Program funded technical assistance as part of Connecticut's Health Impact Assessment project. | Photo courtesy of Weatherization Assistance Program Technical

  14. Weatherization Program Guidance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Program Guidance Weatherization Program Guidance The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) is governed by various federal regulations designed to help manage and account for the resources provided by DOE. Each year, Congress passes a Weatherization Assistance Program Appropriation. Find active and archived weatherization program notices and memorandums in the table below, which establish the framework for administering WAP funds. Type Topic Weatherization

  15. Home Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science & Innovation » Energy Efficiency » Homes » Home Weatherization Home Weatherization A home energy audit is the first step to saving energy and money. Our Energy Saver 101 infographic breaks down a home energy audit, explaining what energy auditors look for and the special tools they use to determine where a home is wasting energy. Explore the <a href="/node/714616">full infographic</a> now. A home energy audit is the first step to saving energy and money. Our

  16. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  17. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  19. 2008 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Market Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doris, E.; Taylor, R.

    2009-07-01

    The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) integrates local needs and interests in order to promote markets for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE). Its activities are integrative across disparate technologies and market boundaries. In order to analyze the historical performance and forward-looking potential of this broad program, this report assesses market developments and outlooks at the following aggregated levels: states, cities and communities, Indian tribes, and low-income residential efficiency. The analytical goals of the report are to: identify market drivers for EE and RE, paying attention to subsidies, taxes, targets and mandates, environmental policy, energy security, and economic development; assess efficacy of existing policies; discuss challenges and barriers; evaluate high-impact measures for overcoming challenges and barriers; and forecast future market trends.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-00000309 dealing with the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program.

  2. More Weatherized Homes for Minnesota Tribe

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization crews across Minnesota are busy replacing old furnaces, sealing air leaks, and weathering stripped doors for people who are at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty line, with priority given to households with elderly or disabled people.

  3. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for Non-U.S Citizens Mentors, Projects Lectures Papers, Reports Photos NSEC IGPPS Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School June 6 - July 29, 2016...

  4. New Jersey Training Workers to Weatherize Homes

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    New Jersey is training an army of weatherization workers as the state surges ahead with plans to weatherize 13,000 homes, shrinking bills for low-income residents and creating hundreds of jobs.

  5. Homes Weatherized by State for Calendar Year 2009 | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Calendar Year 2009 Homes Weatherized by State for Calendar Year 2009 PDF icon HomesWeatherizedByStateDec2009.pdf More Documents & Publications TOTALARRAHomesWeatherized...

  6. Homes Weatherized by State March 2010 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    March 2010 Homes Weatherized by State March 2010 Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 03312010 PDF icon HomesWeatherizedbyStateQ12010.pdf ...

  7. New Hampshire Weatherization Gets a Funding Boost

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Nonprofit weatherization program makes rapid changes to utilize Recovery Act funds and help residents lower energy costs.

  8. Weatherization Program Notice 12-1

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 12-1 EFFECTIVE DATE: January 31, 2012 SUBJECT: PROGRAM YEAR 2012 WEATHERIZATION GRANT GUIDANCE PURPOSE: To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization or WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2012. SCOPE: The provisions of this guidance apply to Grantees or other entities named in the Notification of Grant Award as the recipient(s) of financial assistance under the Department of Energy (DOE) WAP. LEGAL AUTHORITY:

  9. Weatherization Training: What Does it Take?

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money October 30, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis By Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency Dr. Kathleen Hogan On October 30, communities throughout the nation will celebrate National Weatherization Day, which recognizes an industry of weatherization service providers, state and local agencies, and researchers dedicated to improving the energy efficiency of homes throughout the nation. It is also a day to

  10. Weatherization Success Stories | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Efficiency » Weatherization Success Stories Weatherization Success Stories The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's (EERE) successes in providing weatherization services for existing residential and multifamily housing with low-income residents reduce energy bills for residents. Explore EERE's weatherization success stories below. April 12, 2016 These before and after photos of Lake Oroville in Northern California show the dramatic results of extended years of drought.

  11. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy About the Office » Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories RSS U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) success stories are listed below by program. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant Program State Energy Program Weatherization Assistance Program. You can also read all WIP success stories below. April 7, 2016 These before and after photos

  12. Mississippi Agency Weatherizing Homes, Creating Jobs

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    One Mississippi Community Action Agency has already doubled their output for weatherized homes from the previous year.

  13. ORNL Weatherization Program Evaluation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Weatherization Program Evaluation AgencyCompany Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Sector: Energy Focus Area: Buildings Topics: Policiesdeployment programs Website:...

  14. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  15. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  16. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  17. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  18. Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Weapons The New START Treaty, which was signed in 2010, between the United States and Russian Federation will cap the strategic deployed nuclear arsenals of each country at 1,550 warheads, a nearly 75% reduction compared with the first START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), which expired in 2009. New START follows a series of similar treaties between the United States and Russia all with the goal of reducing nuclear weapons in both countries and, ultimately, lowering the global nuclear

  19. Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program network. Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mihlmester, P.E.; Koehler, W.C. Jr.; Beyer, M.A.; Brown, M.A.; Beschen, D.A. Jr.

    1992-02-01

    The Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network was designed to describe the national network of State and local agencies that provide WAP services to qualifying low-income households. The objective of this study was to profile the current WAP network. To achieve the objective, two national surveys were conducted: one survey collected data from 49 State WAP agencies (including the coterminous 48 States and the District of Columbia), and the second survey collected data from 920 (or 81 percent) of the local WAP agencies.

  20. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program: Program Overview and Philadelphia Project Highlight (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2012-01-01

    Case Study with WIPP program overview, information regarding eligibility, and successes from Pennsylvania's Commission on Economic Opportunity (CEO) that demonstrate innovative approaches that maximize the benefit of the program. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recently launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of homes of low-income families. Since 2010, WIPP has helped weatherization service providers as well as new and nontraditional partners leverage non-federal financial resources to supplement federal grants, saving taxpayer money. WIPP complements the Weatherization Assistance program (WAP), which operates nation-wide, in U.S. territories and in three Native American tribes. 16 grantees are implementing weatherization innovation projects using experimental approaches to find new and better ways to weatherize homes. They are using approaches such as: (1) Financial tools - by understanding a diverse range of financing mechanisms, grantees can maximize the impact of the federal grant dollars while providing high-quality work and benefits to eligible low-income clients; (2) Green and healthy homes - in addition to helping families reduce their energy costs, grantees can protect their health and safety. Two WIPP projects (Connecticut and Maryland) will augment standard weatherization services with a comprehensive green and healthy homes approach; (3) New technologies and techniques - following the model of continuous improvement in weatherization, WIPP grantees will continue to use new and better technologies and techniques to improve the quality of work; (4) Residential energy behavior change - Two grantees are rigorously testing home energy monitors (HEMs) that display energy used in kilowatt-hours, allowing residents to monitor and reduce their energy use, and another is examining best-practices for mobile home energy efficiency; (5) Workforce development and volunteers - with a goal of creating a self-sustaining weatherization model that does not require future federal investment, three grantees are adapting business models successful in other sectors of the home performance business to perform weatherization work. Youthbuild is training youth to perform home energy upgrades to eligible clients and Habitat for Humanity is developing a model for how to incorporate volunteer labor in home weatherization. These innovative approaches will improve key weatherization outcomes, such as: Increasing the total number of homes that are weatherized; Reducing the weatherization cost per home; Increasing the energy savings in each weatherized home; Increasing the number of weatherization jobs created and retained; and Reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  1. U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year) | Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year) A chart detailling the number of homes that have been weatherized by state. PDF icon U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010

  2. WPN 05-1: Program Year 2005 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization) for Program Year 2005.

  3. New Weatherization Training Center Opens in Utah | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Training Center Opens in Utah New Weatherization Training Center Opens in Utah May 25, 2010 - 6:32pm Addthis The Utah weatherization assistance program built a new demonstration house to train weatherization workers. The Intermountain Weatherization Training Center is located in a warehouse in Clearfield, Utah. | Photo courtesy of Intermountain Weatherization Training Center The Utah weatherization assistance program built a new demonstration house to train weatherization workers.

  4. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act.

  5. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Ohio Success...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PDF icon ohiosuccessstory.pdf More Documents & Publications Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia Success Story Weatherization Innovation Pilot ...

  6. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  7. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  8. Program evaluation: Weatherization Residential Assistance Partnership (WRAP) Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobson, Bonnie B.; Lundien, Barbara; Kaufman, Jeffrey; Kreczko, Adam; Ferrey, Steven; Morgan, Stephen

    1991-12-01

    The Weatherization Residential Assistance Partnership,'' or WRAP program, is a fuel-blind conservation program designed to assist Northeast Utilities' low-income customers to use energy safely and efficiently. Innovative with respect to its collaborative approach and its focus on utilizing and strengthening the existing low-income weatherization service delivery network, the WRAP program offers an interesting model to other utilities which traditionally have relied on for-profit energy service contractors and highly centralized program implementation structures. This report presents appendices with surveys, participant list, and computers program to examine and predict potential energy savings.

  9. Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

  10. Q&A: Kristen Psaki of WeatherizeDC

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Roughly 20 percent of carbon emissions come from inefficient homes. The DC Project says it has found a way to mitigate emissions and create jobs, a winning combination. WeatherizeDC is the non-profit’s effort to use a community engagement model to help DC residents find green jobs and live a more energy efficient lifestyle.

  11. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  12. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  13. Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... equally across all states, because no forecast is available for determining which ... but would not be included in the GPRA forecast of savings for that activity, because it ...

  14. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  15. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  17. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  18. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G.; MacDonald, M.

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  19. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Contacts | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy You are here Home » About the Office » Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Contacts Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Contacts For information about how the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office is organized, see the organization chart. You can contact the office by email or via postal delivery at: U.S. Department of Energy Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 1000 Independence Ave, SW, Mail Stop EE-2K U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC

  20. Winter Weather FAQs | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Winter Weather FAQs As Argonne prepares for the winter season, employees should be aware of the laboratory's procedures and policies in severe weather events. Below are some of the questions that have been asked in recent years and their answers. Comments and additional questions are welcome; send them to safety@anl.gov. Q. How does the laboratory decide to delay the start of business operations or suspend laboratory operations due to weather concerns? A. FMS-Grounds keeps laboratory management

  1. Weatherization Assistance Program Quality Work Plan Requirements |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Quality Work Plan Requirements Weatherization Assistance Program Quality Work Plan Requirements Four square graphic of a document, a conversation bubble, a checkbox and a certification seal. The U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) has introduced a comprehensive Quality Work Plan (QWP) that will establish a benchmark for quality home energy upgrades. This plan defines what is required when federal dollars are used to purchase weatherization

  2. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    (8-89) United States Government Department of Energy Memorandum DATE: November 23, 2015 WAP Memorandum 014 REPLY TO ATTN OF: AnnaMaria Garcia, Director Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office SUBJECT: Multifamily and Rental Draft WPN Request for Comment TO: Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network This memo serves as an opportunity for WAP Grantees to review and provide comment on two draft Weatherization Program Notices (WPNs) developed by the Department of Energy (DOE). The

  3. Weatherization Assistance Program | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Program Weatherization Assistance Program The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program provides grants to states, territories, and some Indian tribes to improve the energy efficiency of the homes of low-income families. These governments, in turn, contract with local governments and nonprofit agencies to provide weatherization services to those in need using the latest technologies for home energy upgrades. Since the program began in 1976, DOE has helped improve the

  4. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Overview Program Details Local Information Apply Application Process Eligibility Criteria General Information for Applicants Information for Non-U.S Citizens Mentors, Projects Lectures Papers, Reports Photos NSEC » CSES » Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School June 6 - July 29, 2016 Contacts Director Misa Cowee Email Administrative Assistant Mary Wubbena Email Request more information Email Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School 4:05 Applications for the 2016

  5. Lane Electric Cooperative - Residential and Commercial Weatherization...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Washer: 75 Solar Water Heater: 500 Summary Lane Electric Cooperative offers energy efficient Weatherization Grant Programs to Lane Electric residential and commercial members: a...

  6. Where to Apply for Weatherization Assistance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) does not provide weatherization services or services of any kind to individuals. The application process is handled by each state.

  7. Idahos Weatherization Assistance Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for each unit prioritized to receive weatherization services. PY 14 Participant Demographics Elderly Disabled Children under 6 PY 14 Participant Resident Status Homeowner...

  8. Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program ... firms, pursuant to Federal law? *98. Do procurement procedures provide ...

  9. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The presentation will review known variability in extreme weather such as excessive heat, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Projections and uncertainties...

  10. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Memorandum DATE: November 23, 2015 WAP Memorandum 014 REPLY TO ATTN OF: AnnaMaria Garcia, Director Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office SUBJECT: Multifamily and ...

  11. Update on Progress: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... architecture * Building confidence among consumers Weatherization Assistance Program 17 Monitoring WIP's Investments WAP * Desktop, Onsite and Follow-up Reviews * Based on ...

  12. DOE Tribal Multi-County Weatherization Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Courses included classroom instruction and hands on training: * Basic Weatherization * Combustion Appliance Safety * Duct Blaster and Blower Door From this training three Tribal ...

  13. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office Events ...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) hosts trainings and facilitates peer exchange for state, local, tribal, and K-12 school district leaders. Find...

  14. Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program, funding for the states, energy efficiency for low-income families, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 PDF ...

  15. Southwest Michigan Community Action Agency … Weatherization...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... 1 Report on Examination Level Attestation Engagement Of ... The Weatherization Program helps eligible low-income ... to Southwest's management as an opportunity for improvement. ...

  16. Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Conservation Block Grants Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State Energy Program and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants Appendix of ...

  17. Training Program Graduates Weatherization-Ready Workers

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Graduates of Human Capital Development Corporation's (HCDC) First Choice Program aren't just trained in areas of construction, they also can tackle home weatherization services.

  18. Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    asked questions in regards to the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout procedures. PDF icon wapcloseoutfaqs.pdf More Documents & Publications WPN 12-3: Closeout...

  19. Chelan County PUD- Residential Weatherization Rebate Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Chelan County PUD offers cash rebates to residential customers who make energy efficient weatherization improvements to eligible homes. Eligible measures include efficient windows doors as well as...

  20. Maine Company Growing with Weatherization Work

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Maine's BIOSAFE Environmental Services expands into weatherization, assisting low-income families with their services and creating jobs as business grows.

  1. Weatherization Assistance Available at Florida Pie Shop

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Pie in the Sky, a seemingly simple store that offers customers fresh-baked desserts, is providing a second treat: weatherization.

  2. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    820946 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories en SEP Success Story: Energy Department Supporting Nevada's Effort to Increase Electric Vehicle Infrastructure...

  3. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call Series: Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations, Call Slides and Discussion Summary, February 26, 2015.

  4. What is Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    This constant pressure for low-cost energy savings has become the trademark of weatherization and distinguishes it from the larger home retrofit industry. Another distinguishing ...

  5. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Philadelphia Success Story Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia Success Story Case Study with WIPP program overview, information regarding eligibility, ...

  6. Weatherization Assistance Program | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Program Place: Washington, DC Website: http: References: Weatherization Assistance Program1 Information About Partnership with NREL Partnership with NREL Yes Partnership...

  7. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  8. Frosty Conditions Catalyze Weatherization Solutions: Maine Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Maine demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  9. Weatherization Grows in the Green Mountain State (Vermont): Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Vermont demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  10. Weatherization Keeps Washington Green: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Washington demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  11. WEATHERIZATION OF RENTAL UNITS FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS Administration

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET Form is designed to gather specific detail related to the expenditures of the Weatherization grant. PDF icon WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET More Documents & Publications DOE F 540.3 WPN 06-3: Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Instructions and Forms WPN 04-4: Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Package and Reporting Format

    WEATHERIZATION OF RENTAL UNITS FREQUENTLY ASKED

  12. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  13. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  14. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Diks, Cees G H; Clark, Martyn P

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  15. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  16. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  17. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  19. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  20. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  1. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  2. Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) information about OWIP PDF icon Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) More Documents & Publications WPN 10-11: National Evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program Re: Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) ACHP Letter to Energy Secretary Steven Chu on February 5, 2010

  3. EnergyPlus Weather Data for use with EnergyPlus Simulation Software

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    EnergyPlus is simulation software from DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) that models heating, cooling, lighting, ventilating, and other energy flows as well as water in buildings. Because the environment surrounding any building is an important component of the energy choices that go into the building's design and the energy performance of that building thereafter, weather data from all parts of the world are made available through the EnergyPlus web site. The data are collected from more than 2100 locations 1042 locations in the USA, 71 locations in Canada, and more than 1000 locations in 100 other countries throughout the world. The weather data are arranged by World Meteorological Organization region and Country. In addition to using the weather data via the utility installed automatically with EnergyPlus software, users may view and download EnergyPlus weather data directly using a weather data layer for Google Earth.

  4. EnergyPlus Weather Data for use with EnergyPlus Simulation Software

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    EnergyPlus is simulation software from DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) that models heating, cooling, lighting, ventilating, and other energy flows as well as water in buildings. Because the environment surrounding any building is an important component of the energy choices that go into the building's design and the energy performance of that building thereafter, weather data from all parts of the world are made available through the EnergyPlus web site. The data are collected from more than 2100 locations — 1042 locations in the USA, 71 locations in Canada, and more than 1000 locations in 100 other countries throughout the world. The weather data are arranged by World Meteorological Organization region and Country. In addition to using the weather data via the utility installed automatically with EnergyPlus software, users may view and download EnergyPlus weather data directly using a weather data layer for Google Earth.

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  6. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  7. The North Carolina Field Test: Field performance of the preliminary version of an advanced weatherization audit for the Department of Energy`s Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sharp, T.R.

    1994-06-01

    The field performance of weatherizations based on a newly-developed advanced technique for selecting residential energy conservation measures was tested alongside current Retro-Tech-based weatherizations in North Carolina. The new technique is computer-based and determines measures based on the needs of an individual house. In addition, it recommends only those measures that it determines will have a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than 1 for the house being evaluated. The new technique also considers the interaction of measures in computing the benefit-to-cost ratio of each measure. The two weatherization approaches were compared based on implementation ease, measures installed, labor and cost requirements, and both heating and cooling energy savings achieved. One-hundred and twenty houses with the following characteristics participated: the occupants were low-income, eligible for North Carolina`s current weatherization program, and responsible for their own fuel and electric bills. Houses were detached single-family dwellings, not mobile homes; were heated by kerosene, fuel oil, natural gas, or propane; and had one or two operating window air conditioners. Houses were divided equally into one control group and two weatherization groups. Weekly space heating and cooling energy use, and hourly indoor and outdoor temperatures were monitored between November 1989 and September 1990 (pre-period) and between December 1990 and August 1991 (post-period). House consumption models were used to normalize for annual weather differences and a 68{degrees}F indoor temperature. Control group savings were used to adjust the savings determined for the weatherization groups. The two weatherization approaches involved installing attic and floor insulations in near equivalent quantities, and installing storm windows and wall insulation in drastically different quantities. Substantial differences also were found in average air leakage reductions for the two weatherization groups.

  8. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  9. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  10. Update on Progress: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Update on Progress: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program STEAB Meeting June 8, 2011 LeAnn M. Oliver Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Weatherization Assistance Program 2 WIP Recovery Act Spending Cumulative Payments Target for June ($ million) Cumulative Payments to Date ($ million) Percent of 50% Spend Goal Reached WAP 3,371.7 2,915.8 86% SEP 1,753.7 1333.7 76% EECBG 1,468.4 1109.1 76% WIP Total 6,593.8 5,358.6 81% June 2011 - 50% Spend Goal Total Recovery Act Spending

  11. Search for: All records | DOE PAGES

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a ... the ARM variational analysis, ECMWF forecasts, and a multi-scale data assimilation system. ...

  12. Search for: All records | DOE PAGES

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a ... the ARM variational analysis, ECMWF forecasts, and a multi-scale data assimilation system. ...

  13. Precipitation characteristics of CAM5 physics at mesoscale resolution...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    has recently been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ... The ETS is a contingency table based met- ric comparing ''the number of correct forecasts ...

  14. Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation State ...

  15. WPN 11-08: Grant Guidance for Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program's (Weatherization Innovation or WIPP) Fiscal Year 2010 Grants. PDF icon WPN 11-08: Grant ...

  16. WPN 03-5: Weatherization Assistance Program National Recognition Awards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide criteria and guidelines for the Weatherization Assistance Program's National Recognition Awards being presented at the 2003 National Weatherization Training Conference in Phoenix, Arizona.

  17. Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing, November 4, 2009 Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing, November 4, 2009 U.S. Department of...

  18. Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients This document contains the transcript ...

  19. WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance Effective: Dec. 1, 2011 To issue the ...

  20. CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM This...

  1. How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    In October 2013, Jasmine began training to learn essential home weatherization skills at the New Mexico EnergySmart Academy, a weatherization training center at Santa Fe Community ...

  2. WPN 07-1: Program Year 2007 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization) for Program Year (PY) 2007.

  3. Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On ...

  4. Window Manufacturer Sees Business Surge As Weatherization Supplier...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Addthis Related Articles Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Avoided Through Weatherization Weatherization Provides Boost for New Jersey Business Minnesota's Project ReEnergize Brings ...

  5. Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Document explains how to use estimated ...

  6. How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life February 19, 2015 - 4:45pm Addthis The Rocky...

  7. Cowlitz County PUD- Residential Weatherization Plus Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Cowlitz County PUD offers an incentive to residential customers who weatherize their homes. Eligible residences can be either site-built or manufactured homes, but must have a permanently installed...

  8. Idaho Falls Power- Residential Weatherization Loan Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Residential customers with permanently installed electric heat who receive service from the City of Idaho Falls, are eligible for 0% weatherization loans. City Energy Service will conduct an energy...

  9. ARM - Lesson Plans: Weather and Climate Statistics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    by 30 or 40. Preparation It is important to obtain the weather records and climate data set from the local meteorological service beforehand if the school does not have them...

  10. National Ignition Facility wet weather construction plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kugler, A N

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a wet weather construction plan for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) construction project. Construction of the NIF commenced in mid- 1997, and excavation of the site was completed in the fall. Preparations for placing concrete foundations began in the fall, and above normal rainfall is expected over the tinter. Heavy rainfall in late November impacted foundation construction, and a wet weather construction plan was determined to be needed. This wet weather constiction plan recommends a strategy, techniques and management practices to prepare and protect the site corn wet weather effects and allow construction work to proceed. It is intended that information in this plan be incorporated in the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) as warranted.

  11. New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption |...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... 517.8 Million in Weatherization Funding and Energy Efficiency Grants for New York One Sky Homes, San Jose, CA, Custom Builder, Grand Award Winner. | California prides itself on ...

  12. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Tlingit-Haida Regional Housing Authority Alaska Native Weatherization Training & Jobs Program University of Alaska Southeast Marquam George Associate Professor Construction Technology marquam.george@uas.alaska.edu 907 796 6124 Juneau Southeast Alaska Weatherization Training Center Southeast Climate Data - HDD * Yakutat 9,485 * Angoon 8,450 * Haines 8,505 * Juneau (Airport) 9,105 * Ketchikan 7,084 * Sitka 8,011 * Tenakee Springs 8,180 Annual Water Equivalent Precipitation - 1971-2000 *

  13. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (Fact Sheet), Weatherization And Intergovernmental Programs (WIP)

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Overview and Philadelphia Project Highlight The Department of Energy (DOE) Offce of Energy Effciency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recently launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy effciency and health and safety of homes of low-income families. Since 2010, WIPP has helped weatherization service providers as well as new and nontraditional partners leverage non-federal fnancial

  14. The North Carolina Field Test: Field Performance of the Preliminary Version of an Advanced Weatherization Audit for the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sharp, T.R.

    1994-01-01

    The field performance of weatherizations based on a newly-developed advanced technique for selecting residential energy conservation measures was tested alongside current Retro-Tech-based weatherizations in North Carolina. The new technique is computer-based and determines measures based on the needs of an individual house. In addition, it recommends only those measures that it determines will have a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than 1 for the house being evaluated. The new technique also considers the interaction of measures in computing the benefit-to-cost ratio of each measure. The two weatherization approaches were compared based on implementation ease, measures installed, labor and cost requirements, and both heating and cooling energy savings achieved. One-hundred and twenty houses with the following characteristics participated: the occupants were low-income, eligible for North Carolina's current weatherization program, and responsible for their own fuel and electric bills. Houses were detached single-family dwellings, not mobile homes; were heated by kerosene, fuel oil, natural gas, or propane; and had one or two operating window air conditioners. Houses were divided equally into one control group and two weatherization groups. Weekly space heating and cooling energy use, and hourly indoor and outdoor temperatures were monitored between November 1989 and September 1990 (pre-period) and between December 1990 and August 1991 (post-period). House consumption models were used to normalize for annual weather differences and a 68 F indoor temperature. Control group savings were used to adjust the savings determined for the weatherization groups. The two weatherization approaches involved installing attic and floor insulations in near equivalent quantities, and installing storm windows and wall insulation in drastically different quantities. Substantial differences also were found in average air leakage reductions for the two weatherization groups. Average, weather-normalized heating and cooling energy savings were 33 and 18%, respectively, for weatherizations where the new technique was used, and 23 and 3% for Retro-Tech-based weatherizations. Weatherizations using the new technique achieved 43% more heating energy savings and substantially more cooling energy savings; they cost around 10% less at two agencies and considerably more at the third; and they were nearly equivalent in labor requirements. The following major conclusions were drawn from the study: (1) The advanced audit significantly increased heating energy savings. (2) Heating energy savings of around 33% were achieved using the advanced audit with blower-door-directed air sealing. (3) The advanced audit appeared to increase cooling energy savings, although wide variances occurred. (4) As tested in North Carolina, the advanced audit overpredicted heating energy consumption and savings for houses with high heating loads. (5) The advanced audit did not increase weatherization costs and actually lowered costs for two of three weatherization agencies. (6) The advanced audit recommended some measures in near identical quantities to Retro-Tech-based weatherizations and others in dramatically different quantities. (7) Blower-door-directed air sealing more than doubled the air leakage reductions achieved from standard air sealing techniques. (8) Low-income houses in North Carolina had much higher average leakage rates than similar New York houses but were sealed as well or better.

  15. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP)

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    - Webinar Transcript | Department of Energy the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript This document contains the transcript for the Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) webinar held on February 12, 2013. PDF icon leveraging_resources_webinar_transcript.pdf More Documents & Publications Leveraging Resources for Weatherization

  16. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2010-09-01

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  17. WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation contains information on WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions.

  18. Weatherization Plus — Opportunities for the 21st Century

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Millennium Committee Strategy Report for the DOE Weatherization Assistance Program; 15 pp.; April 1999.

  19. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Chu, Sammy; Campanella, Leslie; Sewell, Travis; Gill, Tony; Fransen, Richard; Leuty, Steve; Qualls, Xavier; Bergeron, T.J.; Stewet, Zachary

    2013-05-29

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  20. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  1. Result of recent weatherization retrofit projects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dickinson, J.B.; Lipschutz, R.D.; O'Regan, B.; Wagner, B.S.

    1982-07-01

    Pacific Gas and Electric (PG and E) and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) have conducted studies in their respective service areas in order to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of certain conservation retrofits. Twenty houses in Walnut Creek, California, underwent an infiltration reduction program, similar to house doctoring. Ten of these houses also received additional contractor-installed measures. BPA retrofitted 18 houses at its Midway substation in central Washington. Retrofits made to the houses included: attic and crawlspace insulation, foundation sill caulking, storm windows and doors, increased attic ventilation, and infiltration reduction. Energy consumption and weather data were monitored before and after each set of retrofits in both projects. Leakage measurements were made by researchers from the Energy Efficient Buildings Program using blower door fan pressurization, thereby allowing calculation of heating season infiltration rates. An energy use model correlating energy consumption with outside temperature was developed in order to determine improvements to the thermal conductance of the building envelope as a result of the retrofits. Energy savings were calculated based on the results of the energy use model. As a check on these findings, the Computerized Instrumented Residential Audit (CIRA) load calculation program developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory provided a theoretical estimate of the savings resulting from the retrofits. At Midway, storm windows and doors were found to save the most energy. Because the Midway houses were not very leaky at the beginning of the experiment, the infiltration reduction procedures were less effective than expected. In the Walnut Creek project, the infiltration reduction procedures did decrease the leakiness of the test houses, but the effect upon energy savings was not great.

  2. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  3. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  4. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  7. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  8. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  9. Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pigg, Scott; Cautley, Dan; Francisco, Paul; Hawkins, Beth A; Brennan, Terry M

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

  10. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Portal to New Jobs in Home Weatherization (Green Jobs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-04-01

    Expanding training opportunities in the weatherization of buildings will accelerate learning and provide a direct path for many Americans to find jobs in the clean energy field. The National Weatherization Training Portal (NWTP), which is now in the final stages of testing, features multi-media, interactive, self-paced training modules.

  11. ARM - Campaign Instrument - ecmwfdiag

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Campaign Instrument : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Instrument Categories Derived Quantities and Models Campaigns...

  12. Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael J Iacono

    2011-04-07

    This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

  13. The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves The Sun continually ejects high-energy electrons, protons, and other nuclei that bombard the Earth, producing space-weather effects such as the beautiful northern lights but also others that can destroy satellites and disrupt our lives here on Earth. April 24, 2016 The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves Photo: NASA/GSFC/SDO The space weather threat... and how we

  14. Massachusetts on Track with Weatherization Boost | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on Track with Weatherization Boost Massachusetts on Track with Weatherization Boost January 12, 2010 - 3:07pm Addthis As the state of Massachusetts advances toward its goal of weatherizing approximately 17,000 homes over three years, thousands of residents across the Bay State have already felt the impact of its expanded program. Massachusetts has hired 35 energy auditors, roughly 140 weatherization workers and about 30 administrators to keep up with the surge in weatherization work made

  15. EERE Success Story-Connecticut: Bridgeport Multifamily Weatherization |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Connecticut: Bridgeport Multifamily Weatherization EERE Success Story-Connecticut: Bridgeport Multifamily Weatherization November 8, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis EERE's Weatherization Assistance Program weatherized a multifamily facility in Bridgeport, Connecticut, that provides safe housing for individuals, veterans, and the homeless received weatherization; the services performed have saved the facility nearly $7,000 in annual energy costs. Because the state had not yet

  16. States Celebrate National Weatherization Day | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4, 2014 - 11:37am Addthis Sates across the nation celebrated Weatherization Day on October 30 with guided tours and Gubernatorial proclamations. In this photo, A team of weatherization technicians perform a site demonstration in Minnesota on Weatherization Day in 2012. | Photo courtesy of WAPTAC. Sates across the nation celebrated Weatherization Day on October 30 with guided tours and Gubernatorial proclamations. In this photo, A team of weatherization technicians perform a site demonstration in

  17. The Global Positioning System constellation as a space weather monitor. Comparison of electron measurements with Van Allen Probes data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Morley, Steven K.; Sullivan, John P.; Henderson, Michael G.; Blake, J. Bernard; Baker, Daniel N.

    2016-02-06

    Energetic electron observations in Earth's radiation belts are typically sparse, and multipoint studies often rely on serendipitous conjunctions. This paper establishes the scientific utility of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), currently flown on 19 satellites in the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, by cross-calibrating energetic electron measurements against data from the Van Allen Probes. By breaking our cross calibration into two parts—one that removes any spectral assumptions from the CXD flux calculation and one that compares the energy spectra—we first validate the modeled instrument response functions, then the calculated electron fluxes. Unlike previous forward modeling of energetic electron spectra, wemore » use a combination of four distributions that together capture a wide range of observed spectral shapes. Moreover, our two-step approach allowed us to identify, and correct for, small systematic offsets between block IIR and IIF satellites. Using the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer and Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope on Van Allen Probes as a “gold standard,” here we demonstrate that the CXD instruments are well understood. A robust statistical analysis shows that CXD and Van Allen Probes fluxes are similar and the measured fluxes from CXD are typically within a factor of 2 of Van Allen Probes at energies inline image4 MeV. Our team present data from 17 CXD-equipped GPS satellites covering the 2015 “St. Patrick's Day” geomagnetic storm to illustrate the scientific applications of such a high data density satellite constellation and therefore demonstrate that the GPS constellation is positioned to enable new insights in inner magnetospheric physics and space weather forecasting.« less

  18. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  19. Ocean-ice/oil-weathering computer program user's manual. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirstein, B.E.; Redding, R.T.

    1987-10-01

    The ocean-ice/oil-weathering code is written in FORTRAN as a series of stand-alone subroutines that can easily be installed on most any computer. All of the trial-and-error routines, integration routines, and other special routines are written in the code so that nothing more than the normal system functions such as EXP are required. The code is user-interactive and requests input by prompting questions with suggested input. Therefore, the user can actually learn about the nature of crude oil and oil weathering by using this code. The ocean-ice oil-weathering model considers the following weathering processes: evaporation; dispersion (oil into water); moussee (water into oil); and spreading; These processes are used to predict the mass balance and composition of oil remaining in the slick as a function of time and environmental parameters.

  20. Healthy Housing Opportunities During Weatherization Work

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, J.; Tohn, E.

    2011-03-01

    In the summer and early fall of 2010, the National Center for Healthy Housing interviewed people from a selection of state and local agencies that perform weatherizations on low-income housing in order to gauge their approach to improving the health and safety of the homes. The interviews provided a strong cross section of what work agencies can do, and how they go about funding this work when funds from the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) do not cover the full extent of the repairs. The report also makes recommendations for WAP in how to assist agencies to streamline and maximize the health and safety repairs they are able to make in the course of a standard weatherization.

  1. Integration of space weather into space situational awareness

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D

    2010-11-09

    Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those conditions occur in that orbit. This allows users to rapidly rule in or out environmental causes of anomalies. The same user interface can also allow users to drill down for more detailed quantitative information. DREAM can be run either from a distributed web-based user interface or as a stand-alone application for secure operations. In this paper we discuss the underlying structure of the DREAM model and demonstrate the user interface that we have developed . We also present some prototype data products and user interfaces for DREAM and discuss how space environment information can be seamlessly integrated into operational SSA systems.

  2. 1990 Weatherization Assistance Program monitoring. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Samuels, L.S.

    1992-06-19

    The fiscal year 1990 DOE weatherization programs were monitored in Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The focus of the monitoring was on a total of 18 subgrantees. Separate reports on the monitoring completed on each site was submitted as well as the final summary report for each state. The scope of monitoring consisted of a review of current contracts, budgets, program operating procedures, staffing, inventory control, financial and procurement procedures, review of client files and audit reports, inspection of completed dwelling units and assessment of monitoring, training, and technical assistance provided by the grantees. A random sampling of completed units were selected and visits were made to inspect these weatherized dwellings.

  3. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  4. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  5. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  6. ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents: Assessing...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Viterbo, Pedro ECMWF In this study, we compare short-term weather forecasts of the ECMWF model...

  7. Illinois and Texas Towns See Weatherization Boost

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    “It cropped about a hundred bucks off my bill in the cold, cold winter,” says Springfield resident Donald Dagget, a 78-year-old retired beauty salon owner who had his 1937, two-bedroom bungalow weatherized in October.

  8. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  9. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  10. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  11. HUD Data on Properties Eligible for Weatherization Assistance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program guidance to states, Indian tribes, and overseas U.S. territories regarding HUD data on properties eligible for weatherization ser

  12. Science on the Hill: Why space weather matters

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Why space weather matters Science on the Hill: Why space weather matters Many people think of space as a silent, empty void and the sun as a distant source of light and heat. Not ...

  13. Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold February 25, 2014 - 9:49am Addthis Make sure your car is ready for spring snowstorms. | Photo...

  14. Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold February 25, 2014 - 9:49am Addthis Make sure your car is ready for spring snowstorms....

  15. #AskEnergySaver: Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization #AskEnergySaver: Weatherization November 25, 2014 - 12:23pm Addthis This month our experts answered your #AskEnergySaver questions on weatherization. | Image courtesy of Sarah Gerrity, Energy Department. This month our experts answered your #AskEnergySaver questions on weatherization. | Image courtesy of Sarah Gerrity, Energy Department. Allison Lantero Allison Lantero Digital Content Specialist, Office of Public Affairs Looking for more ways to save energy? Check out Energy Saver

  16. Tribal Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Tribal Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather This U.S. Department of Energy Office of Indian Energy report assesses climate change and extreme weather vulnerabilities specific to tribal energy infrastructure and systems in the contiguous United States and Alaska. It includes information about the impacts from climate change and extreme weather events on both onsite and offsite

  17. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet July 2011 | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy July 2011 Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet July 2011 Provides an overview on the U.S. Department of Energys Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program, including information on the programs history, who is eligible, and how to participate. PDF icon wipp_factsheet.pdf More Documents & Publications Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia Success Story WPN 11-08: Grant Guidance for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Grants WPN

  18. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Projects | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Innovation Pilot Program Projects Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Projects Projects funded by the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program $90 million under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to support the use of a wide range of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies by 101 high-performing local weatherization providers across the country View WIPP Projects in a larger map. To report corrections, please email WeatherizationInnovation@ee.doe.gov. The City of Danville,

  19. Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money October 30, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis By Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency Dr. Kathleen Hogan On October 30, communities throughout the nation will celebrate National Weatherization Day, which recognizes an industry of weatherization service providers, state and local agencies, and researchers dedicated to improving the energy efficiency of homes throughout the nation. It is also a day to

  20. Celebrating the Completion of 1 Million Weatherized American Homes

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department's Weatherization Assistance Program supports energy efficiency upgrades to low-income homes all over the United States.

  1. WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy 6-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance Effective: Dec. 17, 2015 To issue updated monitoring policy and procedures for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). PDF icon WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance PDF icon Grantee PM Checklist PDF icon Subgrantee Checklist PDF icon Grantee Programmatic Management Changes PDF icon Subgrantee Checklist Changes More

  2. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet July 2011

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program The Department of Energy (DOE) Offce of Energy Effciency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recently launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy effciency and health and safety in homes of low-income families. Since 2010, this program has helped weatherization service providers as well as new and nontraditional partners leverage non-federal

  3. WPN 04-1: Program Year 2004 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2004.

  4. How to Apply for Weatherization Assistance | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life February 19, 2015 - 4:45pm Addthis The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the Energy Department.| Photo courtesy of Rocky Mountain Youth Corps The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the Energy Department.| Photo courtesy of Rocky

  5. Weatherization Assistance Program Success Stories | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Success Stories Weatherization Assistance Program Success Stories These success stories include EERE Blog entries for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program. How to Save Energy, Money with Home Energy Upgrades Make your home more energy efficient. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency The Weatherization Assistance Program has developed technical certifications, training programs, and new methods to advance the

  6. EERE Success Story-How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Jasmine's Life | Department of Energy How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life EERE Success Story-How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life January 6, 2016 - 11:06am Addthis The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the Energy Department.| Photo courtesy of Rocky Mountain Youth Corps. The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the

  7. WPN 02-1: Program Year 2002 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2002.

  8. WPN 13-1: Program Year 2013 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2013.

  9. Solar Ramping Distributions over Multiple Timescales and Weather Patterns (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Hummon, M.; Orwig, K.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of ramping, solar power, and weather patterns in operational systems.

  10. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Weatherization services are cost-effective, energy efficiency emasures for existing residential and multifamily housing with income-eligible residents.

  11. Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization December 9, 2013 - 9:37am Addthis Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization David Danielson David Danielson Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy KEY FACTS Since 2009, more than 1.1 million homes throughout the country have been weatherized More than 15,000 additional workers were

  12. HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance February 23, 2016 - 4:29pm Addthis Housing and Urban Development (HUD) multifamily properties eligible for weatherization assistance. On January 25, 2010, the Department of Energy (DOE) implemented rule 71-CFR-3847 for its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Under the rule, if a public housing, assisted multi-family or Low

  13. WPN 14-1: Program Year 2014 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2014.

  14. WPN 00-1- Program Year 2000 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2000.

  15. WPN 03-1: Program Year 2003 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2003.

  16. WPN 16-1: Program Year 2016 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2016.

  17. Cook Inlet Tribal Council, Inc.- 2010 Weatherization Project

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to native people by native people in the Cook Inlet region.

  18. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office 2016 Better Buildings Summit Registration Now Open 2016 Better Buildings Summit Registration Now Open Read more Florida Installs Battery Backup Solar Power at Schools Designated as Emergency Shelters Florida Installs Battery Backup Solar Power at Schools Designated as Emergency Shelters Read more Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation Results Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation Results Read more Eleven States

  19. Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with Ultra-Accelerated Weathering

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System | NREL Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with Ultra-Accelerated Weathering System In this video, NREL researchers Gary Jorgenson and Carl Bingham discuss the NREL-developed, ultra-accelerated weathering system and its ability to revolutionize the weathering industry

  20. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Zoi, Cathy

    2013-05-29

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act. We're taking your questions and comments right now on weatherization. Join in the conversation! *Facebook -- http://www.facebook.com/energygov *Twitter -- http://www.twitter.com/energy

  1. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1C

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-19 EFFECTIVE DATE: September 22, 2010 SUBJECT: GUIDANCE FOR GRANT AMENDMENTS FOR THE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR CONSUMERS FUNDING PURPOSE: To issue guidance for the Grantees who need to complete grant amendments based on the receipt of funding to undertake Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) projects. SCOPE: The provisions of this guidance apply to States or other entities named as recipients of SERC Grants funding within the Department of

  2. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-13A

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    0-13A EFFECTIVE DATE: SEPTEMBER 29, 2010 SUBJECT: ARRA REPORTING REQUIREMENTS: OMB QUARTERLY AND DOE MONTHLY REPORTING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT OF 2009 FOR THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM REFERENCES: (1) OMB Memorandum M-09-21 Implementing Guidance for the Reports on the Use of Funds Pursuant to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, June 22 nd , 2009. (2) OMB Memorandum M-10-08 Updated Guidance on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

  3. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  4. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  5. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  8. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  9. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  10. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  11. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  12. Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Ahlgrimm, Maike

    2015-04-02

    ECMWF derived diagnostic variables over MAGIC's ship path from Los Angeles, CA and Honolulu, HI. Two dimensional (time and height) slices were extracted once the ship's exact positions were known.

  13. Weatherization Assistance Program - Background Data and Statistics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2010-03-01

    This technical memorandum is intended to provide readers with information that may be useful in understanding the purposes, performance, and outcomes of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization). Weatherization has been in operation for over thirty years and is the nation's largest single residential energy efficiency program. Its primary purpose, established by law, is 'to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings owned or occupied by low-income persons, reduce their total residential energy expenditures, and improve their health and safety, especially low-income persons who are particularly vulnerable such as the elderly, the handicapped, and children.' The American Reinvestment and Recovery Act PL111-5 (ARRA), passed and signed into law in February 2009, committed $5 Billion over two years to an expanded Weatherization Assistance Program. This has created substantial interest in the program, the population it serves, the energy and cost savings it produces, and its cost-effectiveness. This memorandum is intended to address the need for this kind of information. Statistically valid answers to many of the questions surrounding Weatherization and its performance require comprehensive evaluation of the program. DOE is undertaking precisely this kind of independent evaluation in order to ascertain program effectiveness and to improve its performance. Results of this evaluation effort will begin to emerge in late 2010 and 2011, but they require substantial time and effort. In the meantime, the data and statistics in this memorandum can provide reasonable and transparent estimates of key program characteristics. The memorandum is laid out in three sections. The first deals with some key characteristics describing low-income energy consumption and expenditures. The second section provides estimates of energy savings and energy bill reductions that the program can reasonably be presumed to be producing. The third section deals with estimates of program cost-effectiveness and societal impacts such as carbon reduction and reduced national energy consumption. Each of the sections is brief, containing statistics, explanatory graphics and tables as appropriate, and short explanations of the statistics in order to place them in context for the reader. The companion appendices at the back of the memorandum explain the methods and sources used in developing the statistics.

  14. Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Adams

    2009-01-07

    The following is a synopsis of the major achievements attributed to the operation of the Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center (WAPTAC) by the National Association for State Community Services Programs (NASCSP). During the past five years, the WAPTAC has developed into the premier source for information related to operating the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) at the state and local levels. The services provide through WAPTAC include both virtual technical support as well as hands-on training and instruction in classroom and in the field. The WAPTAC achieved several important milestones during its operation including the establishment of a national Weatherization Day now celebrated in most states, the implementation of a comprehensive Public Information Campaign (PIC) to raise the awareness of the Program among policy makers and the public, the training of more than 150 new state managers and staff as they assume their duties in state offices around the country, and the creation and support of a major virtual information source on the Internet being accessed by thousands of staff each month. The Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center serves the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program as a valuable training and technical assistance resource for the network of 54 direct state grantees (50 states, District of Columbia and three Native American tribes) and the network of 900 local subgrantees (comprised of community action agencies, units of local government, and other non-profit organizations). The services provided through WAPTAC focus on standardizing and improving the daily management of the WAP. Staff continually identify policies changes and best practices to help the network improve its effectiveness and enhance the benefits of the Program for the customers who receive service and the federal and private investors. The operations of WAPTAC are separated into six distinct areas: (1) Orientation for New WAP State Directors and Staff; (2) Pollution Occurrence Insurance Project; (3) Public Information Campaign; (4) State Management Training Project; (5) System for Integrating and Reviewing Technologies and Techniques; and (6) WAPTAC Services.

  15. Real-Time Weather Data Access Guide: Updated February 2006

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Long, N.

    2006-03-01

    The format of the weather data received from the National Weather Service is extremely inconvenient for building engineers to read, especially for trending historical data; therefore, a weather parsing program was created by NREL building engineers to simplify the data. The weather-parsing program collects current weather conditions for over 4,000 sites around the world and allows access to the data via a web page designed by NREL building researchers. The database provides data for some locations from late 1998 through today. Users can request data to be sent to them via e-mail by using the interactive web page.

  16. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  17. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  18. Final Project Report: Release of aged contaminants from weathered sediments: Effects of sorbate speciation on scaling of reactive transport

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon Chorover, University of Arizona; Peggy O'????Day, University of California, Merced; Karl Mueller, Penn State University; Wooyong Um, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Carl Steefel, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

    2012-10-01

    Hanford sediments impacted by hyperalkaline high level radioactive waste have undergone incongruent silicate mineral weathering concurrent with contaminant uptake. In this project, we studied the impact of background pore water (BPW) on strontium, cesium and iodine desorption and transport in Hanford sediments that were experimentally weathered by contact with simulated hyperalkaline tank waste leachate (STWL) solutions. Using those lab-weathered Hanford sediments (HS) and model precipitates formed during nucleation from homogeneous STWL solutions (HN), we (i) provided detailed characterization of reaction products over a matrix of field-relevant gradients in contaminant concentration, PCO2, and reaction time; (ii) improved molecular-scale understanding of how sorbate speciation controls contaminant desorption from weathered sediments upon removal of caustic sources; and (iii) developed a mechanistic, predictive model of meso- to field-scale contaminant reactive transport under these conditions.

  19. Obama Administration Delivers More than $453 Million for Weatherization Programs in 15 States

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize more than 165,000 homes

  20. Obama Administration Delivers More than $304 Million for Weatherization Programs in Georgia, Illinois and New York

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize more than 85,000 homes

  1. Obama Administration Delivers More than $63 Million for Weatherization Programs in Indiana and New Mexico

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize more than 22,400 homes

  2. Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sugiyama, Gayle; Nasstrom, John; Pobanz, Brenda; Foster, Kevin; Simpson, Matthew; Vogt, Phil; Aluzzi, Fernando; Homann, Steve

    2012-05-01

    In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.

  3. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF VERSION 3.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brioude, J.; Arnold, D.; Stohl, A.; Cassiani, M.; Morton, Don; Seibert, P.; Angevine, W. M.; Evan, S.; Dingwell, A.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.; Pisso, I.; Bukhart, J.; Wotawa, G.

    2013-11-01

    The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally designed for cal- culating long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis at different scales. This multiscale need from the modeler community has encouraged new developments in FLEXPART. In this document, we present a version that works with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteoro- logical model. Simple procedures on how to run FLEXPART-WRF are presented along with special options and features that differ from its predecessor versions. In addition, test case data, the source code and visualization tools are provided to the reader as supplementary material.

  4. Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boero, Riccardo; Bianchini, Laura; Pasqualini, Donatella

    2015-05-04

    Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently with the predictions of an investment model, economic characteristics signaling local economic growth in the near future decrease the level of vulnerability. We also show that federal governments transfers and grants neither work to support recovery from and adaptation to weather events nor to distribute their costs over a broader tax base. Finally, we show that communities relying on municipal bonds to finance adaptation and recovery policies can benefit from local acknowledgment of the need for such policies and that they do not have to pay lenders a premium for the risk induced by weather events. In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.

  5. Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Boero, Riccardo; Bianchini, Laura; Pasqualini, Donatella

    2015-05-04

    Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently with the predictions of an investment model, economic characteristics signaling local economic growth in the near future decrease the level of vulnerability. We also show that federal governments transfers and grants neither work to support recovery from and adaptationmore » to weather events nor to distribute their costs over a broader tax base. Finally, we show that communities relying on municipal bonds to finance adaptation and recovery policies can benefit from local acknowledgment of the need for such policies and that they do not have to pay lenders a premium for the risk induced by weather events. In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.« less

  6. Development and Testing of a Life Cycle Model and a Parameterization of Thin Mid-level Stratiform Clouds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krueger, Steven K.

    2008-03-03

    We used a cloud-resolving model (a detailed computer model of cloud systems) to evaluate and improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models used for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling. We also used observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, made at DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Climate Research Facility located in the Southern Great Plains (Kansas and Oklahoma) during Intensive Observation Periods to evaluate our detailed computer model as well as a single-column version of a global atmospheric model used for numerical weather prediction (the Global Forecast System of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction). This so-called Single-Column Modeling approach has proved to be a very effective method for testing the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models. The method relies on detailed observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, in an atmospheric column comparable in size to a grid column used in a global atmospheric model. The required observations are made by a combination of in situ and remote sensing instruments. One of the greatest problems facing mankind at the present is climate change. Part of the problem is our limited ability to predict the regional patterns of climate change. In order to increase this ability, uncertainties in climate models must be reduced. One of the greatest of these uncertainties is the representation of clouds and cloud processes. This project, and ARM taken as a whole, has helped to improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models.

  7. Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mihlmester, P.E.; Koehler, W.C. Jr.; Beyer, M.A. . Applied Management Sciences Div.); Brown, M.A. ); Beschen, D.A. Jr. . Office of Weatherization Assistance Programs)

    1992-02-01

    The Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network was designed to describe the national network of State and local agencies that provide WAP services to qualifying low-income households. The objective of this study was to profile the current WAP network. To achieve the objective, two national surveys were conducted: one survey collected data from 49 State WAP agencies (including the coterminous 48 States and the District of Columbia), and the second survey collected data from 920 (or 81 percent) of the local WAP agencies.

  8. 2015 Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School Research Reports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowee, Misa; Chen, Yuxi; Desai, Ravindra; Hassan, Ehab; Kalmoni, Nadine; Lin, Dong; Depascuale, Sebastian; Hughes, Randall Scott; Zhou, Hong

    2015-11-24

    The fifth Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School was held June 1st - July 24th, 2015, at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). With renewed support from the Institute of Geophysics, Planetary Physics, and Signatures (IGPPS) and additional support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, we hosted a new class of five students from various U.S. and foreign research institutions. The summer school curriculum includes a series of structured lectures as well as mentored research and practicum opportunities. Lecture topics including general and specialized topics in the field of space weather were given by a number of researchers affiliated with LANL. Students were given the opportunity to engage in research projects through a mentored practicum experience. Each student works with one or more LANL-affiliated mentors to execute a collaborative research project, typically linked with a larger ongoing research effort at LANL and/or the student’s PhD thesis research. This model provides a valuable learning experience for the student while developing the opportunity for future collaboration. This report includes a summary of the research efforts fostered and facilitated by the Space Weather Summer School. These reports should be viewed as work-in-progress as the short session typically only offers sufficient time for preliminary results. At the close of the summer school session, students present a summary of their research efforts. Titles of the papers included in this report are as follows: Full particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of whistler wave generation, Hybrid simulations of the right-hand ion cyclotron anisotropy instability in a sub-Alfvénic plasma flow, A statistical ensemble for solar wind measurements, Observations and models of substorm injection dispersion patterns, Heavy ion effects on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: hybrid study, Simulating plasmaspheric electron densities with a two-component electric field model, Ion and electron heating by whistler turbulence: parametric studies via particle-in-cell simulation, and The statistics of relativistic electron pitch angle distribution in the Earth’s radiation belt based on the Van Allen Probes measurements.

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  10. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  11. Raising the Bar within the Weatherization and Home Performance Industry |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Raising the Bar within the Weatherization and Home Performance Industry Raising the Bar within the Weatherization and Home Performance Industry Addthis Description The Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) was created in 1976 to assist low-income families who lacked resources to invest in energy efficiency. This video not only shines a light of the existing success of the WAP, but it also takes a look at its recent evolution through the Guidelines for Home Energy

  12. Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Resources | Department of Energy On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources between the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. PDF icon MOU_DOE_Commerce.pdf More Documents

  13. Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs Watch a recording of National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Senior Project Manager Amy Hollander's Jan. 11, 2011, presentation about how to create a weatherization program that fosters sustainable behaviors in a community for saving energy. It's one in a series of Webinars to support state and local projects funded by Sustainable Energy Resources for

  14. Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Allocation Formula Weatherization Assistance Program Allocation Formula The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program uses an allocation formula to calculate the weatherization grants to the states based on the amount of funding Congress appropriates to the program in a given year. Background The Allocation Formula Example Background In 1992, DOE commissioned a study through the National Association of State Community Services Programs (NASCSP) to address the concerns of

  15. Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money October 28, 2013 - 12:50pm Addthis William Stewart, with Veterans Green Jobs, blows cellulose insulation in the interior walls of a Lakewood, Colorado, home. This home is part of the Energy Department's Weatherization Assistance Program that supports energy efficiency upgrades to low-income homes in Denver. | Photo courtesy of Dennis Schroeder, NREL. William Stewart, with Veterans Green Jobs, blows

  16. Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked Questions

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    | Department of Energy Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked Questions Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked Questions This document provides a list of frequently asked questions in regards to the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout procedures. PDF icon wap_closeout_faqs.pdf More Documents & Publications WPN 12-3: Closeout Procedures for Recovery Act Grants Under the Weatherization Assistance Program CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY

  17. Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State Energy Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants | Department of Energy Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State Energy Program and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State Energy Program and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants Appendix of Compliance Checklists PDF icon appendix_compliance_checklists_102210.pdf More Documents & Publications WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program

  18. WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy 2-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance Archived 12/18/15, Superseded by WPN 16-4 To issue the updated monitoring policy and procedures for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for both annual Appropriated awards and for the Recovery Act awards, which includes the Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) Awards. This updated Guidance excludes the

  19. Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    (ARRA) | Department of Energy Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program, funding for the states, energy efficiency for low-income families, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 PDF icon wap_recovery_act_foa.pdf More Documents & Publications Microsoft Word - nDE-FOA-0000051.rtf Weatherization Formula Grants - American

  20. Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Success Stories | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    and Energy Efficiency Success Stories Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Success Stories November 3, 2009 - 6:00am Addthis Chris Stewart Senior Communicator at DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory Last Friday was National Weatherization Day, which brought attention to the cost-saving and environmental benefits of: Weather stripping and caulking Properly insulating your home Reducing electricity use Replacing incandescent light bulbs with CFLs Buying energy-efficient appliances And other

  1. About the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy About the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office About the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) collaborates with state and local governments, tribes, and K-12 school district leaders to help advance clean energy. Learn more below about who we are and what we do. What We Do For decades, WIP has laid the foundation that helps state and local clean energy programs succeed. Our State Energy

  2. Obama Administration Delivers More than $101 Million for Weatherization

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Programs in Guam and Pennsylvania | Department of Energy 1 Million for Weatherization Programs in Guam and Pennsylvania Obama Administration Delivers More than $101 Million for Weatherization Programs in Guam and Pennsylvania August 25, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu today announced that the Department of Energy is providing more than $101 million in funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to expand weatherization

  3. Obama Administration Delivers More than $448 Million for Weatherization

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Programs in Thirteen States | Department of Energy 48 Million for Weatherization Programs in Thirteen States Obama Administration Delivers More than $448 Million for Weatherization Programs in Thirteen States July 10, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu today announced that the Department of Energy is providing more than $448 million in Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs in Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Missouri, New

  4. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1C | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    09-1C WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1C GUIDANCE FOR GRANT AMENDMENTS FOR THE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR CONSUMERS FUNDING PDF icon wpn_10-19.pdf More Documents & Publications WPN 10-19: Guidance for Grant Amendments for the Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumer's Funding WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance

  5. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND TECHNICAL

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ASSISTANCE FUNDS TO PROGRAM OPERATIONS | Department of Energy 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FUNDS TO PROGRAM OPERATIONS WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FUNDS TO PROGRAM OPERATIONS Guidance to Weatherization Assistance Program Grantees when requesting to reprogram Training and Technical Assistance (T&TA) funds to the Program Operations line item. PDF icon weatherization_program_notice_10-10.pdf More Documents

  6. DOE Announces $29 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Training Centers | Department of Energy 9 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization Training Centers DOE Announces $29 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization Training Centers June 4, 2010 - 12:00am Addthis WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Energy announced today that 34 projects in 27 states have been selected to receive $29 million under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to develop and expand weatherization training centers across the country. These projects

  7. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office Events | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office Events Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office Events The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) hosts trainings and facilitates peer exchange for state, local, tribal, and K-12 school district leaders. Find upcoming events from WIP and other stakeholders in the calendar below and visit our Webinar Archive to access past trainings. May 2016 < prev next > Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 1 2 3 4 5 6

  8. EERE Success Story-New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Consumption | Department of Energy Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption EERE Success Story-New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption August 21, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis The New York State Homes and Community Renewal (HCR) initiated a weatherization project on a Westbeth Artists Housing complex-home to almost 400 low- and middle-income artists from a variety of artistic disciplines-in New York City's West Village. The Westbeth complex is on the National Register of

  9. Energy Department Celebrates National Weatherization Day | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Celebrates National Weatherization Day Energy Department Celebrates National Weatherization Day October 30, 2015 - 2:30pm Addthis A Home Energy Professionals Certifications Energy Auditor performs a Blower Door Test in Colorado. A Home Energy Professionals Certifications Energy Auditor performs a Blower Door Test in Colorado. Dr. Kathleen Hogan Dr. Kathleen Hogan Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency What are the key facts? October 30 is National Weatherization Day, a day

  10. Administration Announces Nearly $8 Billion in Weatherization Funding and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Efficiency Grants | Department of Energy Administration Announces Nearly $8 Billion in Weatherization Funding and Energy Efficiency Grants Administration Announces Nearly $8 Billion in Weatherization Funding and Energy Efficiency Grants March 12, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington DC -- Vice President Joe Biden and Energy Secretary Chu today detailed an investment of nearly $8 billion in state and local weatherization and energy efficiency efforts as part of the President's American

  11. Five More States Reach Major Recovery Act Weatherization Milestone |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy More States Reach Major Recovery Act Weatherization Milestone Five More States Reach Major Recovery Act Weatherization Milestone June 18, 2010 - 12:00am Addthis WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Energy announced today that five more states have reached a significant milestone under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act - completing weatherization work for more than 30 percent of the homes they have planned. Now that New Hampshire, New Mexico, Montana, Minnesota,

  12. Pantex named weather ambassador | National Nuclear Security Administration

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Pantex named weather ambassador Friday, September 5, 2014 - 1:44pm Officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have named NNSA's Pantex Plant a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) Ambassador. The WRN program is a new initiative to spread critical information to residents about how to prepare for and respond to a weather emergency. Ambassadors take the lead in helping unify efforts across government, non-profits, academia and private industry to make the nation more ready,

  13. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  14. First Steps Towards Tribal Weatherization: Human Capacity Development

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grant is funded through the US Department of Energy (DOE) CITC Weatherization apprenticeship Partnerships Cook Inlet Tribal Council Responsible for the applicant recruitment, ...

  15. Subscribe to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office Newsletters

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Get email subscriptions to the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office Newsletters, Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project Updates and State and Local Technical Assistance Program Alerts.

  16. EERE FY 2008-2012 Budget: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Proposed five-year plan for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program.

  17. Weatherization and Workforce Guidelines for Home Energy Upgrades...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Workforce Guidelines for Home Energy Upgrades Fact Sheet Weatherization and Workforce Guidelines for Home Energy Upgrades Fact Sheet This fact sheet provides essential ...

  18. Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and humidity Weathering Performance of PV Backsheets A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions

  19. Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document contains the transcript for the Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients webinar presented on May 31, 2012.

  20. Weathering Performance of PV Backsheets | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Accelerated Laboratory Tests Using Simultaneous UV, Temperature, and Moisture for PV ... Sheet, Noryl PPE Sheet-Back Sheet Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet

  1. Weatherization Brings New Job Opportunity in Arizona | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    To qualify for NACOG's weatherization assistance, homeowners' annual income must equal or be less than 200 percent of the federal poverty level. Personal gratitude According to ...

  2. Seattle HomeWise: Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Program Type Grant Program Rebate Amount Varies Summary The City of Seattle offers free weatherization services to residents who meet income qualifications. Services are...

  3. Appendix K- GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    State Energy Program Grants & Energy Activities; Weatherization Assistance Grants; Gateway Deployment; Intergovernmental Activities; Market Factor in Technology Impact Projections; I&I Energy Savings Results

  4. Obama Administration Delivers More Than $66 Million for Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... The funds will be administered through the Colorado Energy aving Partners (EP) Program, which is housed in the Governor's Energy Office (GEO) and provides weatherization services ...

  5. #tipsEnergy: Weatherizing Your Home for Fall

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    With the start of colder weather, we are sharing fall energy-saving tips that will help you save money and stay comfortable.

  6. Princeton and PPPL launch center to study volatile space weather...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton and PPPL launch center to study volatile space weather and violent solar storms ... - a complex and frequently violent region of space that encompasses the solar system. ...

  7. DOE Announces $29 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    These projects will provide green job training for local workers in energy efficiency retrofitting and weatherization services. With this training, skilled workers can help expand ...

  8. WPN 98-3- Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Package

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue the revised application package and reporting requirements for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for use by the states.

  9. Use of Standard Fluorescent UV Weathering Lamps to Perform UV...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications Weathering Performance of PV Backsheets Literature Review of the Effects of UV Exposure on PV Modules QA TG5 UV, temperature and ...

  10. In Alaska, Weatherization Training Goes Home ...(sort of) | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Most of the work in southeast Alaska is seasonal, in fishing, tourism or timber; the area is also suffering from the economic downturn. Weatherization can supplement seasonal ...

  11. MHK ISDB/Instruments/Automatic Weather Station AWS 2700 | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Weather Station AWS 2700 < MHK ISDB Jump to: navigation, search MHK Instrumentation & Sensor Database Menu Home Search Add Instrument Add Sensor Add Company Community FAQ Help...

  12. Homes Weatherized by State April 2010 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    April 2010 Homes Weatherized by State April 2010 PDF icon PAFormatWAP April Production ... More Documents & Publications HomesWeatherizedbyStateforNovember1.18.10.pdf ...

  13. Weatherization Formula Grants- American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program, funding for the states, energy efficiency for low-income families, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

  14. Weatherization and Intergovernmental FY 2016 Budget At-A-Glance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... and work specifications for residential retrofit worker training, energy audits, and weatherization methods. WIP exceeded its FY 2014 performance goal of 24,600 home ...

  15. Alamo Area Council of Governments … Weatherization Assistance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... deficient or improper when compared with behavior that a prudent person would consider ... Weatherization Program director from management of the program in August 2010, and ...

  16. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  17. Reduced Form Energy Model Elasticities from EIA's Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    This analysis examines the price and weather elasticities derived from EIA's Regional Short-term Energy Model (RSTEM).

  18. HELIOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS: COMPARISON OF NUMERICAL WSA-ENLIL+CONE MODEL AND ANALYTICAL DRAG-BASED MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrnak, B.; ic, T.; Dumbovi?, M.; Temmer, M.; Mstl, C.; Veronig, A. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Odstr?il, D. E-mail: tzic@geof.hr E-mail: manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at E-mail: astrid.veronig@uni-graz.at E-mail: m.leila.mays@nasa.gov

    2014-08-01

    Real-time forecasting of the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth, based on remote solar observations, is one of the central issues of space-weather research. In this paper, we compare arrival-time predictions calculated applying the numerical ''WSA-ENLIL+Cone model'' and the analytical ''drag-based model'' (DBM). Both models use coronagraphic observations of CMEs as input data, thus providing an early space-weather forecast two to four days before the arrival of the disturbance at the Earth, depending on the CME speed. It is shown that both methods give very similar results if the drag parameter ? = 0.1 is used in DBM in combination with a background solar-wind speed of w = 400 km s{sup 1}. For this combination, the mean value of the difference between arrival times calculated by ENLIL and DBM is ?-bar =0.099.0 hr with an average of the absolute-value differences of |?|-bar =7.1 hr. Comparing the observed arrivals (O) with the calculated ones (C) for ENLIL gives O C = 0.3 16.9 hr and, analogously, O C = +1.1 19.1 hr for DBM. Applying ? = 0.2 with w = 450 km s{sup 1} in DBM, one finds O C = 1.7 18.3 hr, with an average of the absolute-value differences of 14.8 hr, which is similar to that for ENLIL, 14.1 hr. Finally, we demonstrate that the prediction accuracy significantly degrades with increasing solar activity.

  19. Release of aged contaminants from weathered sediments: Effects of sorbate speciation on scaling of reactive transport

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorover, Jon; Perdrial, Nico; Mueller, Karl; Strepka, Caleb; O???¢????????Day, Peggy; Rivera, Nelson; Um, Wooyong; Chang, Hyun-Shik; Steefel, Carl; Thompson, Aaron

    2012-11-05

    Hanford sediments impacted by hyperalkaline high level radioactive waste have undergone incongruent silicate mineral weathering concurrent with contaminant uptake. In this project, we studied the impact of background pore water (BPW) on strontium, cesium and iodine desorption and transport in Hanford sediments that were experimentally weathered by contact with simulated hyperalkaline tank waste leachate (STWL) solutions. Using those lab-weathered Hanford sediments (HS) and model precipitates formed during nucleation from homogeneous STWL solutions (HN), we (i) provided thorough characterization of reaction products over a matrix of field-relevant gradients in contaminant concentration, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and reaction time; (ii) improved molecular-scale understanding of how sorbate speciation controls contaminant desorption from weathered sediments upon removal of caustic sources; and (iii) developed a mechanistic, predictive model of meso- to field-scale contaminant reactive transport under these conditions. In this final report, we provide detailed descriptions of our results from this three-year study, completed in 2012 following a one-year no cost extension.

  20. WPN 10-1: Program Year 2010 Weatherization Grant Guidance | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy : Program Year 2010 Weatherization Grant Guidance WPN 10-1: Program Year 2010 Weatherization Grant Guidance Archived 12/28/10, Superseded by WPN 11-1 To issue grant guidance and management information for the Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization) for Program Year (PY) 2010. PDF icon WPN 10-1: Program Year 2010 Weatherization Grant Guidance More Documents & Publications WPN 12-1: Program Year 2012 Weatherization Grant Guidance WPN 16-4: Weatherization

  1. The role of reaction affinity and secondary minerals in regulating chemical weathering rates at the Santa Cruz Soil Chronosequence, California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maher, K.; Steefel, C. I.; White, A.F.; Stonestrom, D.A.

    2009-02-25

    In order to explore the reasons for the apparent discrepancy between laboratory and field weathering rates and to determine the extent to which weathering rates are controlled by the approach to thermodynamic equilibrium, secondary mineral precipitation and flow rates, a multicomponent reactive transport model (CrunchFlow) was used to interpret soil profile development and mineral precipitation and dissolution rates at the 226 ka marine terrace chronosequence near Santa Cruz, CA. Aqueous compositions, fluid chemistry, transport, and mineral abundances are well characterized (White et al., 2008, GCA) and were used to constrain the reaction rates for the weathering and precipitating minerals in the reactive transport modeling. When primary mineral weathering rates are calculated with either of two experimentally determined rate constants, the nonlinear, parallel rate law formulation of Hellmann and Tisser and [2006] or the aluminum inhibition model proposed by Oelkers et al. [1994], modeling results are consistent with field-scale observations when independently constrained clay precipitation rates are accounted for. Experimental and field rates, therefore, can be reconciled at the Santa Cruz site. Observed maximum clay abundances in the argillic horizons occur at the depth and time where the reaction fronts of the primary minerals overlap. The modeling indicates that the argillic horizon at Santa Cruz can be explained almost entirely by weathering of primary minerals and in situ clay precipitation accompanied by undersaturation of kaolinite at the top of the profile. The rate constant for kaolinite precipitation was also determined based on model simulations of mineral abundances and dissolved Al, SiO{sub 2}(aq) and pH in pore waters. Changes in the rate of kaolinite precipitation or the flow rate do not affect the gradient of the primary mineral weathering profiles, but instead control the rate of propagation of the primary mineral weathering fronts and thus total mass removed from the weathering profile. Our analysis suggests that secondary clay precipitation is as important as aqueous transport in governing the amount of dissolution that occurs within a profile because clay minerals exert a strong control over the reaction affinity of the dissolving primary minerals. The modeling also indicates that the weathering advance rate and the total mass of mineral dissolved is controlled by the thermodynamic saturation of the primary dissolving phases plagioclase and K-feldspar, as is evident from the difference in propagation rates of the reaction fronts for the two minerals despite their very similar kinetic rate laws.

  2. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  3. EIS-0095: Bonneville Power Administration's Expanded Residential Weatherization Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Bonneville Power Administration prepared this statement to examine the environmental impacts of an expansion of the existing Residential Weatherization Program to include air-infiltration reducing (tightening) measures, such as storm windows and doors, insulation, weather-stripping and other improvements.

  4. A weatherization manual for LIHEAP policy makers and program administrators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Witherspoon, M.J.; Marabate, R.; Weinhaus, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.

    1993-09-01

    This manual is designed to provide Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) directors with information about weatherization and innovative ways they can utilize LIHEAP funds for weatherization activities. It contains a description of innovative weatherization programs which demonstrate creative uses of LIHEAP funds in weatherization activities. In many of the innovative examples, state and local administrators are coordinating their LIHEAP funds with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program`s funding and with a variety of other federal, state and utility company resources. The innovative programs demonstrate how LIHEAP funds can be used in client education, targeting high energy users, staff training, assessment and audits for weatherization services. The reader will find in the appendices lists of contact persons and further descriptions of the programs highlighted. Although designed with LIHEAP directors in mind, the practices and programs highlighted in this manual are of practical use to any state, local or utility weatherization program administrator. The glossary at the end of the descriptive chapters will assist readers with the terminology used throughout the manual. This manual and the many resource entities cited in its appendices provide ready access to a wealth of state-of-the-art information which could lead to a more cost-effective expenditure of LIBEAP weatherization dollars.

  5. WPN 05-6: Weatherization Assistance Program National Recognition Awards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide criteria and guidelines for the Weatherization Assistance Program’s National Recognition Awards being presented at the 2005 National Weatherization Training Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana. These awards acknowledge outstanding contributions that advance the goals of WAP through individual or group achievement, inspiration, or innovation.

  6. Weatherization Guidance on Maintaining Privacy of Recipients of Services

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program Notice 10-08 dealing with requirements of weatherization service providers to maintain the privacy of low-income residents receiving energy efficiency services in their homes.

  7. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  8. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  9. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  10. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  11. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  12. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  13. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  14. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  15. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  16. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  17. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  18. Impacts of WRF Physics and Measurement Uncertainty on California Wintertime Model Wet Bias

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S; Caldwell, P M; Bader, D C

    2009-07-22

    The Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model version 3.0.1 is used to explore California wintertime model wet bias. In this study, two wintertime storms are selected from each of four major types of large-scale conditions; Pineapple Express, El Nino, La Nina, and synoptic cyclones. We test the impacts of several model configurations on precipitation bias through comparison with three sets of gridded surface observations; one from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and two variations from the University of Washington (without and with long-term trend adjustment; UW1 and UW2, respectively). To simplify validation, California is divided into 4 regions (Coast, Central Valley, Mountains, and Southern California). Simulations are driven by North American Regional Reanalysis data to minimize large-scale forcing error. Control simulations are conducted with 12-km grid spacing (low resolution) but additional experiments are performed at 2-km (high) resolution to evaluate the robustness of microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to resolution changes. We find that the choice of validation dataset has a significant impact on the model wet bias, and the forecast skill of model precipitation depends strongly on geographic location and storm type. Simulations with right physics options agree better with UW1 observations. In 12-km resolution simulations, the Lin microphysics and the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme have better forecast skill in the coastal region while Goddard, Thompson, and Morrison microphysics, and the Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme perform better in the rest of California. The effect of planetary boundary layer, soil-layer, and radiation physics on model precipitation is weaker than that of microphysics and cumulus processes for short- to medium-range low-resolution simulations. Comparison of 2-km and 12-km resolution runs suggests a need for improvement of cumulus schemes, and supports the use of microphysics schemes in coarser-grid applications.

  19. Weatherization Works--Summary of Findings from the Retrospective Evaluation of the U.S. DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, Bruce Edward; Carroll, David; Pigg, Scott; Blasnik, Michael; Dalhoff, Greg; Berger, Jacqueline; Rose, Erin M; Hawkins, Beth A.; Eisenberg, Joel Fred; Ucar, Ferit; Bensch, Ingo; Cowan, Claire

    2015-10-01

    This report presents a summary of the studies and analyses that compose the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). WAP provides grants to Grantees (i.e., states) that then provide grants to Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies) to weatherize low-income homes. This evaluation focused on the WAP Program Year 2008. The retrospective evaluation produced twenty separate reports, including this summary. Four separate reports address the energy savings, energy cost savings, and cost effectiveness of WAP across four housing types: single family, mobile home, small multifamily, and large multifamily. Other reports address the environmental emissions, macroeconomic, and health and household-related benefits attributable to WAP, and characterize the program, its recipients, and those eligible for the program. Major field studies are also summarized, including a major indoor air quality study and a follow-up ventilation study, an in-depth in-field assessment of weatherization work and quality, and a study that assesses reasons for variations in energy savings across homes. Results of surveys of weatherization staff, occupants, occupants satisfaction with weatherization services provided, and weatherization trainees are summarized. Lastly, this report summarizes a set of fifteen case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies.

  20. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.