Sample records for weather forecasts ecmwf

  1. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  2. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  3. Predictability of ECMWF 5-day forecasts over the contiguous United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Netterville, Lee Samuel

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PREDICTABILITY OF ECMWF 5-DAY FORECASTS OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES A Thesis by LEE SAMUEL NETTERVILLE Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AaM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1991 Major Subject: Meteorology PREDICTABILITY OF ECMWF 5-DAY FORECASTS OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES A Thesis by LEE SAMUEL NETTERVILLE Approved as to style and content by: Duson Djuric (Chair of Committee) pw...

  4. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  5. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  6. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  7. The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Froude, Lizzie

    The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems 2006) ABSTRACT The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ensemble prediction systems

  8. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  9. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  10. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    are found to have the majority of RMS growth on day I while poor forecasts do not experience rapid error growth until days 3 and 4. For poor forecasts, the leading EOFs reveal a wave pattern down stream of the Rocky Mountains. This pattern evolves...

  11. Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Weather We provide access to the latest meteorological observations, climatological information, and weather forecast products for the Los Alamos area. December 14, 2011...

  12. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  13. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  14. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  15. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  16. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  17. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  18. Exploiting weather forecast data for cloud detection 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mackie, Shona

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate, fast detection of clouds in satellite imagery has many applications, for example Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate studies of both the atmosphere and of the Earth’s surface temperature. Most ...

  19. The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gammie, Charles F.

    The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Mo´scibrodzka1 , H. Shiokawa2 , C. F. Gammie2,3 , J*. The > 3M cloud will #12;­ 2 ­ interact strongly with gas near nominal pericenter at rp 300AU 8000GM/c2 transient phase while the flow circularizes-- accompanied by transient emission--it is natural to think

  20. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  1. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  2. Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

  3. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  4. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    transport and  numerical weather modeling.   J.  Applied cross correlations.    Weather and Forecasting, 8:4, 401?of radiation for numerical weather prediction and climate 

  5. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  6. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  7. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  8. Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    -scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 technology and powerful workstation approaches in the forecasting workplace. Training and education leading to the weather events should form the basis for any scientific approaches to forecasting those

  9. 6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO Sarah J. Taylor* and Eric D. Howieson NOAA/National Weather Service Tulsa, Oklahoma 1. INTRODUCTION The modernization of the National then providesthemeteorologistanopportunitytoadjustmodel forecasts for local biases and terrain effects. The Tulsa, Oklahoma WFO has been a test office

  10. Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da products Supercomputer Facilities DSA/CPTEC-INPE Monitoring products based on remote sensing Training products Numerical Forecast Products Weather discussion Colleting data platform #12;Atmospheric Chemistry

  11. Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niyogi, Dev

    (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications DEV NIYOGI Department of Agronomy, and Department form 13 May 2008) ABSTRACT Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use model (GEM) as a land surface scheme for mesoscale weather forecasting model applications. The GEM

  12. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  13. Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victor M Zavala

    2009-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Mar 4, 2009 ... We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more ... The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather ...

  14. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  15. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Evaluation of numerical weather prediction solar irradiancecycle: The RUC. Monthly Weather Review, 132 (2), 495-518.representations. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (6), 1972-1995.

  16. Thunderstorm lightning and radar characteristics: insights on electrification and severe weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steiger, Scott Michael

    2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    THUNDERSTORM LIGHTNING AND RADAR CHARACTERISTICS: INSIGHTS ON ELECTRIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING A Dissertation by SCOTT MICHAEL STEIGER Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial... fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY December 2005 Major Subject: Atmospheric Sciences THUNDERSTORM LIGHTNING AND RADAR CHARACTERISTICS: INSIGHTS ON ELECTRIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER...

  17. Towards Dynamically Adaptive Weather Analysis and Forecasting in LEAD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    "mesoscale" weather events. In this paper we discuss an architectural framework that is forming our thinking "mesoscale" weather events. This is accomplished by middleware that facilitates adaptive uti- lization. The meteorology goal of the project is improved prediction of mesoscale weather phenomena; that is, regional scale

  18. A Comparison of Parallel Programming Paradigms and Data Distributions for a Limited Area Numerical Weather Forecast Routine

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    . Published in proceedings of the 9 th ACM International Conference on Supercomputing, July 1995, Barcelona for producing routine weather forecasts at several European meteorological institutes. Results are shown

  19. SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    turbines and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the domain of gas turbines we are working on summarizing sensor data from an op- erational gas turbine (Yu et. al., 2003) for the maintenance engineersSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

  20. SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    turbines and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the domain of gas turbines we are working on summarizing sensor data from an opera- tional gas turbine (Yu et. al., 2003) for the maintenance engineersSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

  1. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  2. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ben C Allanach; Kyle Cranmer; Christopher G Lester; Arne M Weber

    2007-07-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Previous LHC forecasts for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), based on current astrophysical and laboratory measurements, have used priors that are flat in the parameter tan beta, while being constrained to postdict the central experimental value of MZ. We construct a different, new and more natural prior with a measure in mu and B (the more fundamental MSSM parameters from which tan beta and MZ are actually derived). We find that as a consequence this choice leads to a well defined fine-tuning measure in the parameter space. We investigate the effect of such on global CMSSM fits to indirect constraints, providing posterior probability distributions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) sparticle production cross sections. The change in priors has a significant effect, strongly suppressing the pseudoscalar Higgs boson dark matter annihilation region, and diminishing the probable values of sparticle masses. We also show how to interpret fit information from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo in a frequentist fashion; namely by using the profile likelihood. Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of CMSSM fits are compared and contrasted.

  3. 11.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMMERSED BOUNDARY METHOD TO RESOLVE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Fotini Katopodes

    11.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMMERSED BOUNDARY METHOD TO RESOLVE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL Katherine A. Lundquist1 , Fotini K. Chow 2 , Julie K. Lundquist 3 , and Jeffery D. Mirocha 3 in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of build- ings which divert mean flow, affect

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  6. COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather research and forecasting: community input COSPAR and the International Living With a Star (ILWS) steering committee have commissioned a strategic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather research and forecasting: community input commissioned a strategic planning activity (or roadmap) focusing on the ability access as supplemental information to the roadmap report. In order

  7. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  8. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  9. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Downward surface solar radiation  data released at 12 UTC forecast shortwave radiation with data obtained from the radiation:   A statistical approach using satellite data.   

  10. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on using satellite data.   Solar Energy 67:1?3, 139?150.  

  11. Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over OurThe Iron SpinPrincetonUsing Maps1DOETHE FUTURE LOOKSofthe Geeks:WeaponsWeather

  12. The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

  13. The Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    numerical weather prediction models operated by the weather services are refined by taking into account stock exchange. The typical predic- tion time horizon which is needed for these purposes is 3 to 48 are applied taking into account the effects from lo- cal roughness, thermal stratification of the atmosphere

  14. Winter Weather Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taylor, Jerry

    Winter Weather Management #12;Introduction · Campus Facilities Staff · Other Campus Organizations #12;Purpose · Organize and coordinate the campus response to winter weather events to maintain campus for use by 7 AM. · Response will be modified depending upon forecast and current weather conditions. #12

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  16. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  17. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  18. P2.3 DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST VERIFICATION SYSTEM AT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS, Univ. of Oklahoma, National Weather Center, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73072-7268; e PREDICTION CENTER Andrew R. Dean*1,2 , Russell S. Schneider 2 , and Joseph T. Schaefer 2 1 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 2 NOAA/NWS Storm

  19. Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S

    2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.

  20. An analysis of winter precipitation in the northeast and a winter weather precipitation type forecasting tool for New York City 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Christopher James

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1's accuracy in forecasting frozen precipitation. . . . 60 23 25 Same as FIG. 22 except for model 2 . . . . Same as FIG. 22 except for model 3 . . . . Same as FIG. 22 except for model 4 . . . . 61 62 26 Histogram of responses for snow cases... to the logistic regression analysis of snow cases versus rain cases for model 1. 64 FIGURE Page 27 Histogram of responses for rain cases to the logistic regression analysis of snow cases versus rain cases for model 1 28 Histogram of responses for snow cases...

  1. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  2. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  3. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  4. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  5. P9.137 The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    P9.137 The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous) available to forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has been increasing over the past few years to examine and scrutinize the data in creating a forecast has not changed. Thus, the concept of the SPC Storm

  6. Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamicalstatistical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid 20 September 2010; published 9 November 2010. [1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane between the number of seasonal hurricane and the large scale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase

  7. A real time model to forecast 24 hours ahead, ozone peaks and exceedance levels. Model based on artificial neural networks, neural classifier and weather predictions.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    on artificial neural networks, neural classifier and weather predictions. Application in an urban atmosphere - will be solved. Keywords: Artificial neural network; Multilayer Perceptron; ozone modelling; statistical stepwise and Software 22, 9 (2007) 1261-1269" DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.08.002 #12;Abstract A neural network combined

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  9. accelerated weathering tests: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    managed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the NWS Oklahoma CityNorman Weather Forecast Xue, Ming 30 Testing General...

  10. Weather Radar Control System Seidu Ibrahim; Advisor: Eric J. Knapp

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mountziaris, T. J.

    Weather Radar Control System Seidu Ibrahim; Advisor: Eric J. Knapp Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Massachusetts, Amherst Abstract Weather radar is an important part of the national infrastructure that is used in producing forecasts and issuing hazardous weather warnings. Traditional weather

  11. The Role of "Citizen Science" in Weather and Climate Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Role of "Citizen Science" in Weather and Climate Research Presented at PPSR 2012 August 4, 2012 50 years of weather records Early Traditions in Citizen Science #12;Benjamin Franklin #12;Joseph stations to help document Climate resources of the country And provide science-based weather forecasts

  12. Physics 137, Section 1, Fall Semester Severe and Hazardous Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Gus

    Physics 137, Section 1, Fall Semester Severe and Hazardous Weather OBSERVATION PROJECTS During project or present one TV-type weather forecast. A list of a few possible observational projects is here of the project, information in the report might include times, dates and places of observations; weather

  13. Phys1063-Physics of Weather August 23, 2010 S. Boyd Page 1 of 4

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyd, Sylke

    Phys1063-Physics of Weather August 23, 2010 S. Boyd Page 1 of 4 Physics of Weather Credit: 4 and air masses, thunderstorms, tornadoes, past and present climate, weather forecasting, problems requirements. #12;Phys1063-Physics of Weather August 23, 2010 S. Boyd Page 2 of 4 F (or N) -- Represents

  14. Commercial Weatherization

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Commercial buildings consume 19 percent of the energy used in the U.S. Learn how the Energy Department is supporting research and deployment on commercial weatherization.

  15. PV powering a weather station for severe weather

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, W. Jr. [Florida Solar Energy Center, Cocoa, FL (United States); Schmidt, J. [Joe Schmidt, Inc., Miami, FL (United States)

    1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    A natural disaster, such as Hurricane Andrew, destroys thousands of homes and businesses. The destruction from this storm left thousands of people without communications, potable water, and electrical power. This prompted the Florida Solar Energy Center to study the application of solar electric power for use in disasters. During this same period, volunteers at the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, Florida and the Miami Office of the National Weather Service (NWS) were working to increase the quantity and quality of observations received from home weather stations. Forecasters at NHC have found surface reports from home weather stations a valuable tool in determining the size, strength and course of hurricanes. Home weather stations appear able to record the required information with an adequate level of accuracy. Amateur radio, utilizing the Automatic Packet Report System, (APRS) can be used to transmit this data to weather service offices in virtually real time. Many weather data collecting stations are at remote sites which are not readily serviced by dependable commercial power. Photovoltaic (solar electric) modules generate electricity and when connected to a battery can operate as a stand alone power system. The integration of these components provides an inexpensive standalone system. The system is easy to install, operates automatically and has good communication capabilities. This paper discusses the design criteria, operation, construction and deployment of a prototype solar powered weather station.

  16. ECMWF workshop on Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, 10-12 Nov 2008 A revised ocean-atmosphere

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    interface #12;1*- Sensible heat flux 6*- Evaporation + int. energy [+ Qlat] ECMWF workshop on Ocean layer) 5- Surface ocean current 7- Surface height 7 1- Continental runoff + internal Energy 8 1*- SurfECMWF workshop on Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, 10-12 Nov 2008 A revised ocean-atmosphere physical

  17. Weatherization Roundup

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    More than 750 thousand homes were weatherized by the Department’s Weatherization Assistance Program in the past three years. Secretary Chu spoke with governors and members of Congress around the country to celebrate this huge accomplishment -- which was finished ahead of schedule and is saving the average household $400 annually on their heating and cooling bills.

  18. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  19. Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balakrishnan, Hamsa

    Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage ...

  20. The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Begstsson, Lennart

    The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems Author: Email: lsrf@mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk #12;Abstract The prediction of extratropical cyclones Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking

  1. Weatherizing America

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Stewart, Zachary; Bergeron, T.J.; Barth, Dale; Qualis, Xavier; Sewall, Travis; Fransen, Richard; Gill, Tony;

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working again, but also to find a calling.

  2. Weatherizing America

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working...

  3. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  4. Physics 137, Section 1, Winter Semester Introduction to the Atmosphere and Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Gus

    Physics 137, Section 1, Winter Semester Introduction to the Atmosphere and Weather OBSERVATIONAL observational project or present one TV-type weather forecast. A list of a few possible observational projects; weather conditions at times of observations, data tables, charts, sketches, graphs, descriptions of what

  5. The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mass, Clifford F.

    1 The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction Are Not Achieving.S. meteorological community has made significant strides in weather diagnosis and prediction, progress has been such problems in a number of areas, ranging from numerical weather prediction to forecast dissemination

  6. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del(ANL-IN-03-032) -Less isNFebruaryOctober 2, AlgeriaQ1A Month toAA Present .

  7. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  9. THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED: COLLABORATIVE TESTING OF ENSEMBLE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF MODELS AND SUBSEQUENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED: COLLABORATIVE TESTING OF ENSEMBLE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a joint facility managed by the National Severe Storms and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout

  10. Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Why it makes sense for one technical college in Charleston, South Carolina is adding weatherization programs to their curriculum.

  11. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Zoi, Cath

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Right now, the Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  12. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  13. Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption Tunisian electricity consumption (the residential sector represents 68% of this class of consumers). Nevertheless, with the Tunisian electricity consumption context, models elaborating which take account weather

  14. AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE Carvalho of the results encountered on numerical weather prediction ensemble runs has encouraged the air quality modellers' community to test the same methodology to foresee air pollutants concentrations

  15. Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric ozone transport

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    A thorough analysis of the ozone transport was carried out using the Transformed-Mean Eulerian (TEM) tracer continuity equation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). In ...

  16. Climatology and Trends in the Forcing of the Stratospheric Ozone Transport

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    A thorough analysis of the ozone transport was carried out using the Transformed-Mean Eulerian (TEM) tracer transport equation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA-40). In ...

  17. American Solar Energy Society Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    © American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION;© American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, irradiance forecasts over OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez ASRC, Albany, NY, Perez

  18. Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

  19. THE ROLE OF STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS IN DECISION MAKING LEADING UP TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to ultimately protect the lives and property of the American people. First-order users of SPC services, which responsibility is to release a suite of severe weather forecast and watch products for the #12;2 protection play key societal roles of efficiently relaying hazardous weather information to the public through

  20. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  1. WEATHER HAZARDS Basic Climatology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prediction Center (SPC) Watch Atmospheric conditions are right for hazardous weather ­ hazardous weather is likely to occur Issued by SPC Warning Hazardous weather is either imminent or occurring Issued by local NWS office #12;Outlooks--SPC Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook=Convective Outlook Day 1 Day 2

  2. The wind power probability density forecast problem can be formulated as: forecast the wind power pdf at time step t for each look-ahead time step t+k of a given time-horizon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    The wind power probability density forecast problem can be formulated as: forecast the wind power ahead) knowing a set of explanatory variables (e.g. numerical weather predictions (NWPs), wind power measured values). Translating this sentence to an equation, we have: where pt+k is the wind power

  3. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  4. Critical Fire Weather Patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clements, Craig

    .1 Sundowner Winds FAT -- 1.1 Southeastern U.S. Fire Weather LIT -- 1.1 East Winds MFR -- 1.1 East Winds OLM

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  6. Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables increase the penetration of environmentally-friendly renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind. For example, the Renewables Portfolio Standard targets up to 25% of energy generation from intermittent

  7. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of atmospheric data, increased computational power, and the continued im- provement of ... speed, and radiances, and are taken from satellites, buoys, planes, boats, ..... there is a large difference in cost between these two operations

  8. Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadjadi, S. Masoud

    : Javier Munoz, Diego Lopez, and David Villegas Undergraduate REU Students: Javier Figueroa, Xabriel J International University (FIU) 11200 SW 8th St., Miami, Florida 33199, USA #12;2 Contents Project Motivation

  9. Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Basu, Sukanta

    : Implications for Wind Energy Brandon Storm*, Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech this region more favorable for wind energy production. At the same time, the presence of LLJs can direct ramifications for renewable wind energy production (e.g. Sisterson and Frenzen8

  10. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate Change Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (M. Tyree, staff scientist, personal communication).

  11. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection TechnicalResonantNovember 15 toAdvancesRock PhysicsRodney Ellis

  12. Home Weatherization Visit

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Chu, Steven

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits of weatherization and how funding from the recovery act is having a direct impact in communities across America.

  13. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  14. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  15. Today's Space Weather Space Weather Case Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ], and grounding is difficult Hydro-Quebec's power grid is, within 90-sec of storm onset interference was thought to be due to Russian radio jamming ! GOES weather satellites, knocked out Power outage lasted 9-hours #12;What We Focus on Regarding This Storm: Power Grids

  16. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  17. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Calore, Joe

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  18. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  19. Extended Abstract, 20th Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 16th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    . In the study, water and ice phase microphysical variables are first derived from the polariza- tion for an adjoint that should include detailed physics parameterizations and the high computational cost, 4DVAR,mxue@ou.edu. et al (2000) being one exception. In the latter, the ice mi- crophysics scheme used

  20. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Goals: Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , hierarchical design, coding standards ­ Plug compatible physics, dynamical cores ­ Registry to describe Driver Layer Driver Package Independent Mediation Layer Config Inquiry I/O API Package Dependent Config

  2. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    data and locations with no cloud cover were ignored (whitewith no cloud cover were ignored (white areas). Since thea) GOES cloud mask, where green is cloudy and white is clear

  3. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system:monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. Journal of

  4. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use have come to expect. Potato late blight risk models were some of the earliest weather-based models. This analysis compares two types of potato late blight risk models that were originally trained on location

  5. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  6. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  7. Sensitivity of Coastal Currents near Point Conception to Forcing by Three Different Winds: ECMWF, COAMPS, and Blended SSM/IECMWFBuoy Winds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dong, Changming "Charles"

    Sensitivity of Coastal Currents near Point Conception to Forcing by Three Different Winds: ECMWF stress curls are weak in COAMPS. It is found that these small-scale variations in the wind field force against the wind direction and can force a poleward current nearshore when the wind relaxes (Oey 1996

  8. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds statistical load models for various service areas (load pockets), estimates weather-normalized loads

  9. The Puerto Rico Weather Camp 2013 is a summer experience hosted by the NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences at UPR Mayagez (UPRM) and co-sponsored by the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilbes, Fernando

    The Puerto Rico Weather Camp 2013 is a summer experience hosted by the NOAA Center for Atmospheric forecasters and administrators, Emergency Management officers, and TV weather broadcasters. The Puerto Rico in the vicinity of La Parguera, Lajas (southwestern Puerto Rico). Applicants must be rising sophomore, junior

  10. The Puerto Rico Weather Camp 2012 is a summer experience hosted by the NOAA Center for Atmospheric Sciences at UPR Mayagez (UPRM) and co-sponsored by the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilbes, Fernando

    The Puerto Rico Weather Camp 2012 is a summer experience hosted by the NOAA Center for Atmospheric forecasters and administrators, Emergency Management officers, and TV weather broadcasters. The Puerto Rico in the vicinity of La Parguera, Lajas (southwestern Puerto Rico). Applicants must be rising sophomore, junior

  11. Initial Development and Genesis of Hurricane Dolly (2008) Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather (MOE), Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Severe Weather (MOE), Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China FUQING ZHANG-resolving simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, this study examines key processes that led- tudinal stretching deformation) alters the characteristics of equatorial waves to form regions of energy

  12. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  13. Impact Assessment of Simulated Doppler Wind Lidars with a Multivariate Variational Assimilation in the Tropics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stoffelen, Ad

    forecast errors of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Tropical mass­windImpact Assessment of Simulated Doppler Wind Lidars with a Multivariate Variational Assimilation, De Bilt, Netherlands CHRISTOPHE ACCADIA AND PETER SCHL�SSEL European Organisation

  14. Intelligent weather agent for aircraft severe weather avoidance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bokadia, Sangeeta

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Severe weather conditions pose a large threat to the safety of aircraft, since they are responsible for a large percentage of aviation related accidents. With the advent of the free flight environment, the exigency for an autonomous severe weather...

  15. Weather Regime Prediction Using Statistical Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Deloncle; R. Berk; F. D'Andrea; M. Ghil

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and B. Legras, 1995: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi10952. Molteni, F. , 2002: Weather regimes and multipleK. Ide, and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred

  16. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  17. accelerated weathering: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Winter Weather Safety www.weather.gov SnowIce Blizzards Flooding Cold Temperatures 12;Building a Weather 5 Weather Theory Weather Reports, Forcasts and...

  18. Portland Diversifying Weatherization Workforce

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    An agreement signed by a diverse group of stakeholders ensures that those in disadvantaged communities have access to some of the weatherization jobs stemming from the pilot phase of the Clean Energy Works Portland program, which has almost 500 homes receiving retrofits through the summer with the help of federal dollars.

  19. What Constrains Spread Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble Kalman Filters?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What Constrains Spread Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble Kalman Filters? Thomas M workshop on 4D-Var and Ensemble Kalman Filter Intercomparisons (Herschel Mitchell, editor) 24 August 2010 of weather predictions initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter may grow slowly relative to other methods

  20. What Constrains Spread Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble Kalman Filters?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What Constrains Spread Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble Kalman Filters? Thomas M workshop on 4D-Var and Ensemble Kalman Filter Intercomparisons (Herschel Mitchell, editor) 27 May 2010 of weather predictions initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter may grow slowly relative to other methods

  1. Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical T.S. Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , in order to be able to absorb a large fraction of wind power in the electrical systems reliable short from refer- ence MET forecasts to the actual wind farm, wind farm power curve models, dynamical models of art wind power prediction system is outlined in Section 2. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP

  2. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  3. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  4. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  5. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  6. QUANTIFICATION OF WEATHERING Robert Hack

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hack, Robert

    sandstone, limestone and dolomites, slates, shales, and in- Weathering and especially future weathering 40 60 80 H slate medium H slate v.thin H slate tick lam. Tg21 thick Tg21 medium Tg21 thin Tg21 v

  7. ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

    2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher resolution real-time model simulations possible, the need to obtain observations to both initialize numerical models and verify their output has become increasingly important. The assimilation of high resolution radar observations therefore provides a vital component in the development and utility of numerical model forecasts for both weather forecasting and contaminant transport, including future opportunities to improve wet deposition computations explicitly.

  8. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  9. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  10. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  11. Road Weather and Transportation Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertini, Robert L.

    Road Weather and Transportation Systems Rhonda Young, P.E., PhD Associate Professor Dept. of Civil & Arch. Engineering Portland State University April 18, 2014 #12;Engineering Perspective of Road Weather · How does weather impact transportation systems? · As engineers, is there anything we can do

  12. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  13. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript This...

  14. Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation As a WIPP agency, reporting...

  15. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Quaranta, Vito [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Evans, Katherine J [ORNL; Rericha, Erin [Vanderbilt University, Nashville

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  16. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  17. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  18. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  19. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  20. Bishop Paiute Weatherization Training Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlos Hernandez

    2010-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The DOE Weatherization Training Grant assisted Native American trainees in developing weatherization competencies, creating employment opportunities for Bishop Paiute tribal members in a growing field. The trainees completed all the necessary training and certification requirements and delivered high-quality weatherization services on the Bishop Paiute Reservation. Six tribal members received all three certifications for weatherization; four of the trainees are currently employed. The public benefit includes (1) development of marketable skills by low-income Native individuals, (2) employment for low-income Native individuals in a growing industry, and (3) economic development opportunities that were previously not available to these individuals or the Tribe.

  1. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  2. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  3. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  4. artificial weathering environment: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nation Winter Weather Hazards Winter Weather Safety www.weather.gov SnowIce Blizzards Flooding Cold Temperatures 12;Building a Weather 37 4....

  5. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  6. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  7. SpaceWeather RESEARCH ARTICLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lockwood, Mike

    ), The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: Results from the first space weather citizen science project, Space is properly cited. The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: Results from the first space weather citizen science citizen science project, the aim of which is to identify and track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed

  8. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    said. "In the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals and public health officials can monitor disease incidence and plan for the future based on today's...

  9. Zonal wind oscillations over the western hemisphere during winter 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hundermark, Bruce William

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 7-day forecast errors of the 500 mb height field over the western hemisphere. B. Literature Review Variations in the zonal wind were first studied in the extended forecasting project.... The energetics of the zonal wind have also been studied. Winston and Krueger (1961) investigated a large scale cycle of available potential energy in the Northern Hemisphere during a 2-week period during late December 1958 and early January 1959. A buildup...

  10. Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Michalek; N. Gopalswamy; S. Yashiro

    2007-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\\it Solar Phys.}, {\\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.

  11. Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) U.S. Department of...

  12. New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption |...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption August 21, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis The New York State Homes and...

  13. Tacoma Power- Residential Weatherization Rebate Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Tacoma Power helps residential customers increase the energy efficiency of homes through the utility's residential weatherization program. Weatherization upgrades to windows are eligible for an...

  14. ARM - Campaign Instrument - ecmwf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492air Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us atgovInstrumentsecmwf

  15. ARM - Instrument - ecmwf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006Datastreamstwrcam40m DocumentationJanuary 9,govInstrumentsdl Documentation DL : Handbook ARM

  16. WeatherMaker: Weather file conversion and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balcomb, J.D.

    1999-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    WeatherMaker is a weather-data utility for use with the ENERGY-10 design-tool computer program. The three main features are: Convert--Weather files can be converted from one format to another. For example, a TMY2 format file can be converted to an ENERGY-10 binary file that can be used in a simulation. This binary file can then be converted to a text format that allows it to be read and/or manipulated in WordPad or Excel. Evaluate--ENERGY-10 weather files can be studied in great detail. There are 8 graphical displays of the data that provide insight into the data, and a summary tables that presents results calculated from the hourly data. Adjust--Hourly temperature data can be adjusted starting with hourly data from a nearby TMY2 site. Dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures are adjusted up or down as required to match given monthly statistics. This feature can be used to generate weather files for any of 3,958 sites in the US where such monthly statistics are tabulated. The paper shows a variety of results, explains the methods used, and discusses the rationale for making the adjustments. It is anticipated that WeatherMaker will be released by the time of the ASES Solar 99 conference.

  17. An adaptive neural network approach to one-week ahead load forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, T.M. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)); Hubele, N.F.; Karady, G.G. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States))

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new neural network approach is applied to one-week ahead load forecasting. This approach uses a linear adaptive neuron or adaptive linear combiner called Adaline.'' An energy spectrum is used to analyze the periodic components in a load sequence. The load sequence mainly consists of three components: base load component, and low and high frequency load components. Each load component has a unique frequency range. Load decomposition is made for the load sequence using digital filters with different passband frequencies. After load decomposition, each load component can be forecasted by an Adaline. Each Adaline has an input sequence, an output sequence, and a desired response-signal sequence. It also has a set of adjustable parameters called the weight vector. In load forecasting, the weight vector is designed to make the output sequence, the forecasted load, follow the actual load sequence; it also has a minimized Least Mean Square error. This approach is useful in forecasting unit scheduling commitments. Mean absolute percentage errors of less than 3.4 percent are derived from five months of utility data, thus demonstrating the high degree of accuracy that can be obtained without dependence on weather forecasts.

  18. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  19. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  20. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  1. Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Read about one weatherization training center that's looking forward to an onslaught of new trainees.

  2. Low-Income Weatherization: The Human Dimension

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation focuses on how the human dimension saves energy within low-income weatherization programs.

  3. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) success stories, news clips, and press releases.

  4. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  5. Evaluation of MM5 Simulations With HTSVS With and Without Inclusion of Soil-Frost Parameterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moelders, Nicole

    things soil freezing and thawing. Reanalysis of temperature, wind vector, specific humidity-frost. For precipitation, the wind vector, and in the mid-troposphere for temperature, the improvement index-frost into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model improved the simulation of annual

  6. Lifting and Transport of Saharan Dust J.R. Banks1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oxford, University of

    the European Centre for Medium- range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) at a resolution of 1.125°), and by soil data* is the wind friction velocity, ut is the threshold friction velocity for particles of size Dp, and dSrel relates to the size distribution. There is no emission from the Sahara when the wind speed is less than

  7. Validation of Water Vapour Profiles from GPS Radio Occultations in the Arctic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    gas in the Earth's atmosphere, in- ducing about two third of the natural greenhouse effect anthropogenic effects from natural variability and to understand the radiative feed back from increasing water Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) will be investigated for Arctic conditions. RO humidity

  8. 6, 80698095, 2006 Water vapor in Asian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of Sciences, Beijing, China 2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Received: 23 May 2006 vapor from European Center for Medium-Range Weather20 Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. 1 Introduction Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor (UTWV) is a key greenhouse gas which exerts a major influence on the energy balance

  9. Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Carolus J; Aylward, Alan D; Denardini, Clezio M; Gibson, Sarah E; Glover, Alexi; Gopalswamy, Nat; Grande, Manuel; Hapgood, Mike; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jakowski, Norbert; Kalegaev, Vladimir V; Lapenta, Giovanni; Linker, Jon A; Liu, Siqing; Mandrini, Cristina H; Mann, Ian R; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Nandi, Dibyendu; Obara, Takahiro; O'Brien, T Paul; Onsager, Terrance; Opgenoorth, Hermann J; Terkildsen, Michael; Valladares, Cesar E; Vilmer, Nicole

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustaine...

  10. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  11. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore »forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  12. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Deremble, Bruno [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France); D'Andrea, Fabio [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France); Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United Staes). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Geophysics and Planetary Physics

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

  13. 2008 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Market Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doris, E.; Taylor, R.

    2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) integrates local needs and interests in order to promote markets for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE). Its activities are integrative across disparate technologies and market boundaries. In order to analyze the historical performance and forward-looking potential of this broad program, this report assesses market developments and outlooks at the following aggregated levels: states, cities and communities, Indian tribes, and low-income residential efficiency. The analytical goals of the report are to: identify market drivers for EE and RE, paying attention to subsidies, taxes, targets and mandates, environmental policy, energy security, and economic development; assess efficacy of existing policies; discuss challenges and barriers; evaluate high-impact measures for overcoming challenges and barriers; and forecast future market trends.

  14. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  15. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  16. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  18. U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06302010 (Calendar Year) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance...

  19. A Multi-period Equilibrium Pricing Model of Weather Derivatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2002). On modelling and pricing weather derivatives. Applied2003). Arbitrage-fee pricing of weather derivatives based onfects and valuation of weather derivatives. The Financial

  20. Essays on Weather Indexed Insurance and Energy Use in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuchs, Alan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and O. Mahul, 2007. “Weather Index Insurance for Agricultureand J. Vickery, 2005. “Weather Insurance in Semi-AridBinswanger, 1993. “Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition

  1. A multi-period equilibrium pricing model of weather derivatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Y. : Valuation and hedging of weather derivatives on monthlyJ. Risk 31. Yoo, S. : Weather derivatives and seasonaleffects and valuation of weather derivatives. Financ. Rev.

  2. Identification of High Collision Concentration Locations Under Wet Weather Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Taesung; Chung, Koohong; Ragland, David; Chan, Chin-Yao

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    conducted under wet weather conditions. Observations fromLeahy, M. , and Suggett, J. Weather as a Chronic Hazard forLocations Under Wet Weather Conditions Taesung Hwang,

  3. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  4. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  5. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  7. Winter Weather FAQs | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Winter Weather FAQs As Argonne prepares for the winter season, employees should be aware of the laboratory's procedures and policies in severe weather events. Below are some of the...

  8. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  9. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  10. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  11. Pantex receives National Weather Service recognition | National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    receives National Weather Service recognition | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing...

  12. Karimar Ledesma Puerto Rico Weather Camp 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilbes, Fernando

    Karimar Ledesma Puerto Rico Weather Camp 2009 Me llamo Karimar Ledesma Maldonado y soy una "Weather Camper 2009". Mi participación en el Puerto Rico Weather Camp fue lo que finalmente me convenció y motivo Física Teórica en adición a la certificación de meteorología en la Universidad de Puerto Rico en Mayagüez

  13. Internship opportunity with National Weather Service

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Internship opportunity with National Weather Service Pacific Regional Headquarters Fall 2008 deadline: August 8, 2008 The Pacific Region of the National Weather Service administers the programs and the general public. The Pacific Regional Headquarters of the National Weather Service, located in downtown

  14. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - 1 - Observations and simulations improve space weather models June 25, 2014 Los Alamos with fast-moving particles and a space weather system that varies in response to incoming energy computer simulations of the space weather that can affect vital technology, communication and navigation

  15. Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

  16. Watching ColoradoWatching Colorado WeatherWeather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ­ Evapotranspiration #12;CoAgMet Southeast Colorado #12;Hoehne CoAgMet Weather Station #12;Hoehne Daily Temperatures #12;Hoehne Relative Humidity #12;Hoehne Solar Radiation #12;Hoehne Wind Speed #12;Hoehne ET Reference Hoehne ET Reference 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 Jan-04 Jan-04 Feb-04 M ar-04 M

  17. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act.

  18. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  19. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2005-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  20. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  1. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  2. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  3. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  4. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  5. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  6. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  7. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States)] [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  8. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  9. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  10. Aging and weathering of cool roofing membranes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akbari, Hashem; Berhe, Asmeret A.; Levinson, Ronnen; Graveline,Stanley; Foley, Kevin; Delgado, Ana H.; Paroli, Ralph M.

    2005-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Aging and weathering can reduce the solar reflectance of cool roofing materials. This paper summarizes laboratory measurements of the solar spectral reflectance of unweathered, weathered, and cleaned samples collected from single-ply roofing membranes at various sites across the United States. Fifteen samples were examined in each of the following six conditions: unweathered; weathered; weathered and brushed; weathered, brushed and then rinsed with water; weathered, brushed, rinsed with water, and then washed with soap and water; and weathered, brushed, rinsed with water, washed with soap and water, and then washed with an algaecide. Another 25 samples from 25 roofs across the United States and Canada were measured in their unweathered state, weathered, and weathered and wiped. We document reduction in reflectivity resulted from various soiling mechanisms and provide data on the effectiveness of various cleaning approaches. Results indicate that although the majority of samples after being washed with detergent could be brought to within 90% of their unweathered reflectivity, in some instances an algaecide was required to restore this level of reflectivity.

  11. Idaho Falls Power- Residential Weatherization Loan Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Residential customers with permanently installed electric heat who receive service from the City of Idaho Falls, are eligible for 0% weatherization loans. City Energy Service will conduct an...

  12. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College ...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    alone. Speakers Jeff Melville, Jack Wilson, John Manz, Kirk Gannett, Franzenia Smith, Duration 4:07 Topic Home Weatherization Education & Training Credit Energy Department...

  13. Training Program Graduates Weatherization-Ready Workers

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Graduates of Human Capital Development Corporation's (HCDC) First Choice Program aren't just trained in areas of construction, they also can tackle home weatherization services.

  14. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The SWS provide a common yardstick for consumers, financiers, and policy makers to measure the performance of their service providers. Training the Weatherization Workforce...

  15. Maine Company Growing with Weatherization Work

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Maine's BIOSAFE Environmental Services expands into weatherization, assisting low-income families with their services and creating jobs as business grows.

  16. Chelan County PUD- Residential Weatherization Rebate Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Chelan County PUD offers cash rebates to residential customers who make energy efficient weatherization improvements to eligible homes. Eligible measures include efficient windows doors as well as...

  17. Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis for Numerical Weather Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alexandru Cioaca

    2011-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

    Sep 2, 2011 ... Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis for Numerical Weather Prediction: Applications to Power Grid Optimization. Alexandru Cioaca(alexgc ***at*** vt.edu)

  18. Weatherization Assistance Available at Florida Pie Shop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Pie in the Sky, a seemingly simple store that offers customers fresh-baked desserts, is providing a second treat: weatherization.

  19. An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    J. Melick1,9 , Christopher Siewert1,9 , Ryan A. Sobash3 , Patrick T. Marsh2,3 , Andrew R. Dean1. Bruce Entwistle7 , Tara L. Jensen8 , and James Correia, Jr.1,9 1 NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 2 NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 3 University of Oklahoma School

  20. TechNoteswww.ll.mit.edu July 2014 Weather forecasts are critical to effectively

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reif, Rafael

    contains the radiometer installed at the top and the CubeSat bus whose solar panels open out once in orbit a host satellite, it will fly with its solar panels opened out like petals of a flower. These panels

  1. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of variability for solar power plants.   While  NWP model operation of solar thermal power  plants, the management of 

  2. Finding an Appropriate Profiler for the Weather Research and Forecasting Code

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadjadi, S. Masoud

    , and David Villegas Undergraduate REU Students: Alex Orta, Michael McFail, Xabriel J. Collazo-Mojica, Javier Figueroa School of Computing and Information Sciences (SCIS) Florida International University (FIU) 11200

  3. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over OurThe Iron SpinPrincetonUsing Maps toValidatingCloud Properties Derived from

  4. PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOfRoseConcernsCompanyPCN Technology Jump to: navigation,Analysis

  5. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  6. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  7. Exploration of Weather Impacts on Freeway Traffic Operations and Safety Using High-Resolution Weather Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertini, Robert L.

    Exploration of Weather Impacts on Freeway Traffic Operations and Safety Using High-Resolution Weather Data by Chengyu Dai A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Moradkhani Kristin Tufte Portland State University ©2011 #12;i ABSTRACT Adverse weather is considered as one

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  9. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  10. Lesson 33: Weather [hali ya hewa; hali ya anga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lesson 33: Weather Weather [hali ya hewa; hali ya anga] A). Weather baridi [cold] joto [warm. 7). Sayari inayozunguka Dunia huitwa mwezi. #12;D. Kuna [There is] Swahili expresses weather is not raining.)] Zingatia [Note] kuna hali ya anga / hali ya hewa namna gani [There is...] [weather conditions

  11. HMS Inclement Weather Policy FACULTY, STAFF AND STUDENTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodrich, Lisa V.

    HMS Inclement Weather Policy FACULTY, STAFF AND STUDENTS During a weather emergency or other inclement weather is that, short of a declared state of emergency, the School remains open. The teaching and research activities of HMS continue despite inclement weather. In such weather emergencies, however

  12. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  13. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  14. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  15. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  17. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  18. DREAM tool increases space weather predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - 1 - DREAM tool increases space weather predictions April 13, 2012 Predicting space weather improved by new DREAM modeling tool Earth's radiation belts can now be studied with a new modeling tool DREAM comes into play. Radiation belt structure and dynamics revealed DREAM is a modeling tool

  19. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  20. Predicting Weather Regime Transitions in Northern Hemisphere Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kondrashov, D.; Shen, J.; Berk, R.; D., F

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    R, D’Andrea F, Ghil M (2007) Weather regime prediction usingA case study. Mon. Weather Rev. , 120, 1616–1627. Kimoto M,D, Ide K, Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred

  1. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Models of Climate and Weather Michael Wehner, Leonid Oliker,modeling climate change and weather prediction is one of thedelity in both short term weather prediction and long term

  2. Predicting Weather Regime Transitions in Northern Hemisphere Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D. Kondrashov; J. Shen; R. Berk; F. D

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    R, D’Andrea F, Ghil M (2007) Weather regime prediction usingA case study. Mon. Weather Rev. , 120, 1616–1627. Kimoto M,D, Ide K, Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred

  3. Predicting Weather Regime Transitions in Northern Hemisphere Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kondrashov, Dmitri; Shen, Jie; Berk, Richard; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    R, D'Andrea F, Ghil M (2007) Weather regime prediction usingA case study. Mon. Weather Rev. , 120, 1616-1627. Kimoto M ,D, Ide K , Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred

  4. Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation State...

  5. DOE Announces $29 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    expand weatherization training centers across the country. These projects will provide green job training for local workers in energy efficiency retrofitting and weatherization...

  6. Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet Presented at the PV Module Reliability Workshop, February 26 - 27...

  7. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FUNDS TO PROGRAM OPERATIONS WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND...

  8. arctic weather conditions: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    condition for a particular vessel. Keywords Weather Routing, Degraded Condition, Crisis Manage- ment Advice, Shortest Path Berlin,Technische Universitt 18 Weather...

  9. Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    4, 2009 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program presentation at Weatherization Deep Dive...

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  11. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  13. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  14. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  15. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  16. Weatherization Works: Final Report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, M.A.

    2001-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation's largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year. The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it saves energy, lowers fuel bills, and improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years. The Program's mission is to reduce the heating and cooling costs for low-income families--particularly the elderly, persons with disabilities, and children by improving the energy efficiency of their homes and ensuring their health and safety. Substantial progress has been made, but the job is far from over. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reports that the average low-income family spends 12 percent of its income on residential energy, compared to only 3% for the average-income family. Homes where low-income families live also have a greater need for energy efficiency improvements, but less money to pay for them.

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  18. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  19. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  20. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  1. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  2. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  3. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  4. Human-Centered Systems Analysis of Aircraft Separation from Adverse Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence

    Adverse weather significantly impacts the safety and efficiency of flight operations. Weather information

  5. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

  6. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia;

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

  7. Clark Public Utilities- Residential Weatherization Loan Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Loans of up to $15,000 at a 5.25% interest are available through Clark Public Utilities' Weatherization Loan Program. The loans can pay for the average local cost of eligible measures, based on...

  8. Cowlitz County PUD- Residential Weatherization Plus Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Cowlitz County PUD offers an incentive to residential customers who weatherize their homes. Eligible residences can be either site-built or manufactured homes, but must have a permanently installed...

  9. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  10. Calibrating DOE-2 to weather and non-weather-dependent loads for a commercial building

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bronson, John Douglas

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CALIBRATING DOE-2 TO WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER-DEPENDENT LOADS FOR A COMMERCIAL BUILDING A Thesis by JOHN DOUGLAS BRONSON Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1992 Major Subject: Mechanical Engineering CALIBRATING DOE-2 TO WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER-DEPENDENT LOADS FOR A COMMERCIAL BUILDING A Thesis by JOHN DOUGLAS BRONSON Approved as to style and content by: M D~c Dennis...

  11. Calibrating DOE-2 to weather and non-weather-dependent loads for a commercial building 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bronson, John Douglas

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CALIBRATING DOE-2 TO WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER-DEPENDENT LOADS FOR A COMMERCIAL BUILDING A Thesis by JOHN DOUGLAS BRONSON Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1992 Major Subject: Mechanical Engineering CALIBRATING DOE-2 TO WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER-DEPENDENT LOADS FOR A COMMERCIAL BUILDING A Thesis by JOHN DOUGLAS BRONSON Approved as to style and content by: M D~c Dennis...

  12. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  13. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  14. Weatherization Plus — Opportunities for the 21st Century

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Millennium Committee Strategy Report for the DOE Weatherization Assistance Program; 15 pp.; April 1999.

  15. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  16. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Chu, Sammy; Campanella, Leslie; Sewell, Travis; Gill, Tony; Fransen, Richard; Leuty, Steve; Qualls, Xavier; Bergeron, T.J.; Stewet, Zachary

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  18. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  19. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  1. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  3. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  4. Adverse Weather Conditions If adverse weather conditions occur which affects tube, bus or rail services, Heads of Department/

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adverse Weather Conditions If adverse weather conditions occur which affects tube, bus or rail to present him/herself for work. Where, due to the adverse weather conditions, public transport is affected as a result of the adverse weather conditions (for example a child's school is closed), they should consult

  5. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  6. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  7. Control of Regional and Global Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alexander Bolonkin

    2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Author suggests and researches a new revolutionary idea for regional and global weather control. He offers to cover cities, bad regions of country, full country or a continent by a thin closed film with control clarity located at a top limit of the Earth troposphere (4 - 6 km). The film is supported at altitude by small additional atmospheric pressure and connected to ground by thin cables. It is known, the troposphere defines the Earth weather. Authors show this closed dome allows to do a full control of the weather in a given region (the day is always fine, the rain is only in night, no strong wind). The average Earth (white cloudy) reflectance equal 0.3 - 0.5. That means the Earth losses about 0.3 - 0.5 of a solar energy. The dome controls the clarity of film and converts the cold regions to subtropics and creates the hot deserts, desolate wildernesses to the prosperous regions with temperate climate. That is a realistic and the cheapest method of the weather control in the Earth at the current time. Key words: Global weather control, gigantic film dome, converting a cold region to subtropics, converting desolate wilderness to a prosperous region.

  8. Merged Sounding Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Troyan, D

    2010-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

    The Merged Sounding value-added product (VAP) uses a combination of observations from radiosonde soundings, the microwave radiometer (MWR), surface meteorological instruments, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model output with a sophisticated scaling/interpolation/smoothing scheme in order to define profiles of the atmospheric thermodynamic state at one-minute temporal intervals and a total of 266 altitude levels.

  9. Healthy Housing Opportunities During Weatherization Work

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, J.; Tohn, E.

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the summer and early fall of 2010, the National Center for Healthy Housing interviewed people from a selection of state and local agencies that perform weatherizations on low-income housing in order to gauge their approach to improving the health and safety of the homes. The interviews provided a strong cross section of what work agencies can do, and how they go about funding this work when funds from the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) do not cover the full extent of the repairs. The report also makes recommendations for WAP in how to assist agencies to streamline and maximize the health and safety repairs they are able to make in the course of a standard weatherization.

  10. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  11. Design and Development of Dual Polarized, Stacked Patch Antenna Element for S-Band Dual-Pol Weather Radar Array

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhardwaj, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in Weather Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .for S-Band Weather Radar . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dual-polpatterns of polarimetric weather radars,” Journal of

  12. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  13. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  14. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  15. 1990 Weatherization Assistance Program monitoring. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Samuels, L.S.

    1992-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The fiscal year 1990 DOE weatherization programs were monitored in Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The focus of the monitoring was on a total of 18 subgrantees. Separate reports on the monitoring completed on each site was submitted as well as the final summary report for each state. The scope of monitoring consisted of a review of current contracts, budgets, program operating procedures, staffing, inventory control, financial and procurement procedures, review of client files and audit reports, inspection of completed dwelling units and assessment of monitoring, training, and technical assistance provided by the grantees. A random sampling of completed units were selected and visits were made to inspect these weatherized dwellings.

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  17. Analysis of Wet Weather Related Collision Concentration Locations: Empirical Assessment of Continuous Risk Profile

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oh, Soonmi; Chung, Koohong; Ragland, David R; Chan, Ching-Yao

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Analysis of Wet Weather Related Collision ConcentrationThe CRP plot displays wet weather related collision profilefactors responsible for wet weather related collisions is

  18. Effects of Weather Variables on Pedestrian Volumes in Alameda County, California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Attaset, Vanvisa; Schneider, Robert J.; Arnold, Lindsay S.; Ragland, David R

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Telegraph Avenue  Weather Station  Oakland Foothills Oakland Foothills  Several weather variables were derivedCombined Pedestrian Count and Weather Condition Database The

  19. The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Coefficient,” Monthly Weather Review, 94(7), 461-465. UnitedRandom Fluctuations in Weather Olivier Deschênes and MichaelRandom Fluctuations in Weather* Olivier Deschênes University

  20. Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deschênes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Random Fluctuations in Weather. ” American Economic Review,Enrico Moretti. 2007. “Extreme Weather Events, Mortality andof the Relation between Weather and Electricity Sales.

  1. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  2. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  3. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  4. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  5. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  6. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  7. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  8. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  9. Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -bone in stage IV. The stages in the respective cyclone evolutions are separated by approximately 6­ 24 h's) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models

  10. SPACE WEATHER RISKS FROM AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    from, e.g., business interruptions. Hence, protection of the electric power supply is particularly Reliability and Infrastructure Defense Act) In 2009 North-American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has-weather-prone property and infrastructure includes: · satellites (e.g., solar panels & electronics: exposed to particle

  11. Geometric Numerical Methods for Numerical Weather Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langdon, Stephen

    -Mesh (HPM) Method · Label space is discretised into N particles with coordinates on the momentum phase space and Sij = (1 - ^2xx)-1. Geometric Numerical Methods for Numerical Weather Prediction ­ p. 8/28 #12;HPM Equations of shallow water motions · The canonical HPM equations of 1D shallow water motion on TS1 are P

  12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  13. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  14. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  15. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  16. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  17. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  19. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  20. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  1. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  2. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  3. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  4. Fermilab | Director's Policy Manual | No. 40.000 Inclement Weather...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    No. 40.000 Rev. 0 Inclement Weather and Snow Policy 2.0 Effective Date 112414 3.0 Scope This policy addresses operations during inclement weather and occurrences of heavy snow at...

  5. Weather conditions affecting VTOL airbus operations in the Northeast Corridor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simpson, R. W.

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A detailed study of hourly weather observations in the Northeast Corridor during the periods 0600-2400 for a ten year period 1944-1958 was made to study the implications of weather affecting the operations of a VSTOL Airbus ...

  6. Open problem: Dynamic Relational Models for Improved Hazardous Weather Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McGovern, Amy

    dis- covery methods for use on mesoscale weather data. Severe weather phenomena such as tornados, thun of the transportation systems. The annual economic impact of these mesoscale storms is estimated to be greater than $13B

  7. Normalizing Weather Data to Calculate Energy Savings Peer Exchange...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Normalizing Weather Data to Calculate Energy Savings Peer Exchange Call Normalizing Weather Data to Calculate Energy Savings Peer Exchange Call February 26, 2015 3:00PM to 4:3...

  8. Fair-weather clouds hold dirty secret | EMSL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Fair-weather clouds hold dirty secret Fair-weather clouds hold dirty secret Released: May 05, 2013 New study reveals particles that seed small-scale clouds over Oklahoma Air...

  9. Weather data analysis based on typical weather sequence analysis. Application: energy building simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David, Mathieu; Garde, Francois; Boyer, Harry

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In building studies dealing about energy efficiency and comfort, simulation software need relevant weather files with optimal time steps. Few tools generate extreme and mean values of simultaneous hourly data including correlation between the climatic parameters. This paper presents the C++ Runeole software based on typical weather sequences analysis. It runs an analysis process of a stochastic continuous multivariable phenomenon with frequencies properties applied to a climatic database. The database analysis associates basic statistics, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and automatic classifications. Different ways of applying these methods will be presented. All the results are stored in the Runeole internal database that allows an easy selection of weather sequences. The extreme sequences are used for system and building sizing and the mean sequences are used for the determination of the annual cooling loads as proposed by Audrier-Cros (Audrier-Cros, 1984). This weather analysis was tested with the datab...

  10. Where fast weathering creates thin regolith and slow weathering creates thick regolith

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bazilevskaya, Ekaterina [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; Lebedeva, Marina [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; Pavich, Milan [U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA; Rother, Gernot [ORNL; Parkinson, D. Y. [Advanced Light Source, LBNL; Cole, David [Ohio State University; Brantley, S. L. [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Weathering disaggregates rock into regolith the fractured or granular earthmaterial that sustains life on the continental land surface. Here, we investigate what controls the depth of regolith formed on ridges of two rock compositions with similar initial porosities in Virginia (USA).A priori, we predicted that the regolith on diabasewould be thicker than on granite because the dominant mineral (feldspar) in the diabase weathers faster than its granitic counterpart. However, weathering advanced 20deeper into the granite than the diabase. The 20-thicker regolith is attributed mainly to connected micron-sized pores, microfractures formed around oxidizing biotite at 20m depth, and the lower iron (Fe) content in the felsic rock. Such porosity allows pervasive advection and deep oxidation in the granite. These observations may explainwhy regolithworldwide is thicker on felsic compared tomafic rock under similar conditions. To understand regolith formationwill require better understanding of such deep oxidation reactions and how they impact fluid flow during weathering.

  11. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  12. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization services are cost-effective, energy efficiency emasures for existing residential and multifamily housing with income-eligible residents.

  13. Solar Ramping Distributions over Multiple Timescales and Weather Patterns (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Hummon, M.; Orwig, K.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of ramping, solar power, and weather patterns in operational systems.

  14. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zoi, Cathy

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act. We're taking your questions and comments right now on weatherization. Join in the conversation! *Facebook -- http://www.facebook.com/energygov *Twitter -- http://www.twitter.com/energy

  15. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Zoi, Cathy

    2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act. We're taking your questions and comments right now on weatherization. Join in the conversation! *Facebook -- http://www.facebook.com/energygov *Twitter -- http://www.twitter.com/energy

  16. JOB OPENING POSITION: TV WeatherCenter Intern (unpaid internship)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parker, Matthew D. Brown

    JOB OPENING POSITION: TV WeatherCenter Intern (unpaid internship) JOB NUMBER: 12081 DIVISION/DEPARTMENT: WRAL-TV - Weather DESCRIPTION: THIS IS AN UNPAID INTERNSHIP. Interns in the WRAL HD Weather of North Carolina. The internship will feature hands-on experience in all aspects of television and radio

  17. Visually Accurate Multi-Field Weather Visualization Purdue University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utah, University of

    -dimensional, and involve global scale phenomena. Less commonly, but no less importantly, weather events are examined weather pat- terns, they are ineffective when examining storm scale weather phe- nomena. Two@cs.utah.edu Jason Levit University of Oklahoma jlevit@ou.edu Figure 1: Time Series of a Cloud Scale Visualization

  18. Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid JASON The MITRE Corporation 7515 Colshire. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid 5b. GRANT on the impact of space weather on the electric grid, seeking to understand 1) the current status of solar

  19. Utility-Based Pricing of the Weather Derivatives Hlne Hamisultane *

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ;1. Introduction Weather impacts many sectors of the economy such as agriculture, construction, tourism and energy), in 1999. Weather derivatives are financial instruments based on a weather index. They give a payment 0 equal to the cost of the hedging portfolio at time 0. Mathematically, this price corresponds

  20. Kelly M. Nez Ocasio Puerto Rico WeatherCamp 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilbes, Fernando

    Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio Puerto Rico WeatherCamp 2009 My name is Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio, I am 19 years old and in 2009 I had the gratifying opportunity to participate in the NCAS "Puerto Rico Weather Camp-1340 Certification at the University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez Campus. The Puerto Rico Weather Camp

  1. Inclement Weather Policy School of Medicine and Health Sciences (SMHS)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    Inclement Weather Policy School of Medicine and Health Sciences (SMHS) If the University closes and Fellows: In the event of adverse weather, all residents and fellows are required to report (SPHHS) In the event of inclement weather, the School of Public Health and Health Services will follow

  2. CSU ATS703 Fall 2012 Numerical Weather Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CSU ATS703 Fall 2012 Numerical Weather Prediction ATS703 is based on the course notes and papers method. A crucial element of accurate weather prediction is initialization, which is briefly discussed in Chapter 11. In the next decade, numerical weather prediction will expe- rience a revolution in model

  3. Chemical weathering of the Panola Granite: Solute and regolith elemental fluxes and the weathering rate of biotite

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chemical weathering of the Panola Granite: Solute and regolith elemental fluxes and the weathering in a saprolitic granite re- golith at Panola, Georgia, USA. Saturated fluid flow across a low-permeability kaolin

  4. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  5. Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, Jason N.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, A.; Hannay, Cecile; Jakob, Christian; Jiao, Y.; Karlsson, J.; Kitagawa, H.; Koehler, M.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; LeDrian, C.; Lock, Adrian; Miller, M.; Marquet, P.; Martins, J.; Mechoso, C. R.; Meijgaard, E. V.; Meinke, I.; Miranda, P.; Mironov, D.; Neggers, Roel; Pan, H. L.; Randall, David A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Rockel, B.; Rossow, William B.; Ritter, B.; Siebesma, A. P.; Soares, P.; Turk, F. J.; Vaillancourt, P.; Von Engeln, A.; Zhao, M.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A model evaluation approach is proposed where weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross-section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade-winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate, and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and sub-tropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross-section from the sub-tropics to the tropics for the season JJA of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical crosssections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA40 in the stratocumulus regions (as compared to ISCCP) is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade-wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross-section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.

  6. Large Scale Weather Control Using Nuclear Reactors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh-Modgil, M

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is pointed out that controlled release of thermal energy from fission type nuclear reactors can be used to alter weather patterns over significantly large geographical regions. (1) Nuclear heat creates a low pressure region, which can be used to draw moist air from oceans, onto deserts. (2) Creation of low pressure zones over oceans using Nuclear heat can lead to Controlled Cyclone Creation (CCC).(3) Nuclear heat can also be used to melt glaciers and control water flow in rivers.

  7. Large Scale Weather Control Using Nuclear Reactors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moninder Singh Modgil

    2002-10-02T23:59:59.000Z

    It is pointed out that controlled release of thermal energy from fission type nuclear reactors can be used to alter weather patterns over significantly large geographical regions. (1) Nuclear heat creates a low pressure region, which can be used to draw moist air from oceans, onto deserts. (2) Creation of low pressure zones over oceans using Nuclear heat can lead to Controlled Cyclone Creation (CCC).(3) Nuclear heat can also be used to melt glaciers and control water flow in rivers.

  8. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  9. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  10. Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Adams

    2009-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The following is a synopsis of the major achievements attributed to the operation of the Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center (WAPTAC) by the National Association for State Community Services Programs (NASCSP). During the past five years, the WAPTAC has developed into the premier source for information related to operating the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) at the state and local levels. The services provide through WAPTAC include both virtual technical support as well as hands-on training and instruction in classroom and in the field. The WAPTAC achieved several important milestones during its operation including the establishment of a national Weatherization Day now celebrated in most states, the implementation of a comprehensive Public Information Campaign (PIC) to raise the awareness of the Program among policy makers and the public, the training of more than 150 new state managers and staff as they assume their duties in state offices around the country, and the creation and support of a major virtual information source on the Internet being accessed by thousands of staff each month. The Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center serves the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program as a valuable training and technical assistance resource for the network of 54 direct state grantees (50 states, District of Columbia and three Native American tribes) and the network of 900 local subgrantees (comprised of community action agencies, units of local government, and other non-profit organizations). The services provided through WAPTAC focus on standardizing and improving the daily management of the WAP. Staff continually identify policies changes and best practices to help the network improve its effectiveness and enhance the benefits of the Program for the customers who receive service and the federal and private investors. The operations of WAPTAC are separated into six distinct areas: (1) Orientation for New WAP State Directors and Staff; (2) Pollution Occurrence Insurance Project; (3) Public Information Campaign; (4) State Management Training Project; (5) System for Integrating and Reviewing Technologies and Techniques; and (6) WAPTAC Services.

  11. Weatherization Assistance Program - Background Data and Statistics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This technical memorandum is intended to provide readers with information that may be useful in understanding the purposes, performance, and outcomes of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization). Weatherization has been in operation for over thirty years and is the nation's largest single residential energy efficiency program. Its primary purpose, established by law, is 'to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings owned or occupied by low-income persons, reduce their total residential energy expenditures, and improve their health and safety, especially low-income persons who are particularly vulnerable such as the elderly, the handicapped, and children.' The American Reinvestment and Recovery Act PL111-5 (ARRA), passed and signed into law in February 2009, committed $5 Billion over two years to an expanded Weatherization Assistance Program. This has created substantial interest in the program, the population it serves, the energy and cost savings it produces, and its cost-effectiveness. This memorandum is intended to address the need for this kind of information. Statistically valid answers to many of the questions surrounding Weatherization and its performance require comprehensive evaluation of the program. DOE is undertaking precisely this kind of independent evaluation in order to ascertain program effectiveness and to improve its performance. Results of this evaluation effort will begin to emerge in late 2010 and 2011, but they require substantial time and effort. In the meantime, the data and statistics in this memorandum can provide reasonable and transparent estimates of key program characteristics. The memorandum is laid out in three sections. The first deals with some key characteristics describing low-income energy consumption and expenditures. The second section provides estimates of energy savings and energy bill reductions that the program can reasonably be presumed to be producing. The third section deals with estimates of program cost-effectiveness and societal impacts such as carbon reduction and reduced national energy consumption. Each of the sections is brief, containing statistics, explanatory graphics and tables as appropriate, and short explanations of the statistics in order to place them in context for the reader. The companion appendices at the back of the memorandum explain the methods and sources used in developing the statistics.

  12. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  14. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  15. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  16. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  17. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  18. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  19. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  20. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  1. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  2. ERCOT's Weather Sensitive Demand Response Pilot

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carter, T.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ERCOT’s Weather Sensitive Demand Response Pilot CATEE 12-17-13 ESL-KT-13-12-21 CATEE 2013: Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16-18 Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been obtained from... services along with other information about our business is available online at constellation.com. ESL-KT-13-12-21 CATEE 2013: Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16-18 Demand Response in ERCOT CATEE 121313 - Tim Carter...

  3. Response to Weatherization Questions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOrigin ofEnergy at Waste-to-Energy usingof Enhanced Dr.Response to Weatherization Questions

  4. ORNL Weatherization Program Evaluation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluatingGroup |JilinLuOpenNorth AmericaNorthwest RuralNujiraSolarORNL Weatherization

  5. Inupiat Weather Expertise Lesson.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOEThe Bonneville PowerCherries 82981-1cnHigh SchoolIn OtherEnergyBPA-Film-Collection Sign InIñupiat Weather

  6. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hollander, A.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

  7. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  8. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  10. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  11. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  12. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  13. An analysis of winter precipitation in the northeast and a winter weather precipitation type forecasting tool for New York City

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Christopher James

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    are produced. The hourly precipitation-type climatologist present the probabilities for particular precipitation types (frozen, freezing, rain, and mixed) for 2F? temperature intervals from 8F? to 44F?. The synoptic precipitation-type climatologist provide...

  14. Obama Administration Delivers More than $63 Million for Weatherization...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Reinvestment Act to expand weatherization assistance programs in Indiana and New Mexico. The funding, along with additional funds to be disbursed after the states meet...

  15. Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources between the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and...

  16. Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    NREL PVRWS 2013 % 2013 Feb. 27 % Test Procedure for UV Weathering % Resistance of Backsheet % Kusato Hirota, Michiko Tanaka, Takao Amioka, Miki Terada % Toray Industries, Inc. %...

  17. Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document contains the transcript for the Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients webinar presented on May 31, 2012.

  18. Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    thanks to high tech metamorphous Volunteer Labor Highly trained workforce Caulk, plastic window coverings, weather- stripping entire home Targeted approach to installing most...

  19. New Jersey Training Workers to Weatherize Homes | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Efficiency and Renewable Energy What does this mean for me? Recovery Act-funded training programs will create weatherization workforce for hundreds and lower bills for...

  20. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Ohio Success...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    documenting the success of the People Working CooperativelyWIPP partnership. ohiosuccessstory.pdf More Documents & Publications Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact...

  1. Appendix K- GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    State Energy Program Grants & Energy Activities; Weatherization Assistance Grants; Gateway Deployment; Intergovernmental Activities; Market Factor in Technology Impact Projections; I&I Energy Savings Results

  2. #tipsEnergy: Weatherizing Your Home for Fall

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    With the start of colder weather, we are sharing fall energy-saving tips that will help you save money and stay comfortable.

  3. Princeton and PPPL launch center to study volatile space weather...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton and PPPL launch center to study volatile space weather and violent solar storms By John Greenwald December 12, 2013 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook...

  4. Subscribe to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office Newsletters

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Get email subscriptions to the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office Newsletters, Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project Updates and State and Local Technical Assistance Program Alerts.

  5. EXTENSIONS OF GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELING APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    weather) -- Software R open source statistical programming language: Function glm "Family;(2) Generalized Linear Models Statistical Framework -- Multiple Regression Analysis (Linear model or LM) Response

  6. Global warming, bad weather, insurance losses and the global economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Low, N.C. [UOB Life Assurance Ltd., Singapore (Singapore); Shen, S. [Global Warming International Center, Woodridge, IL (United States)

    1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. The impact on the insurance industry is described. Why global warming in the near term causes very bad weather is explained. The continuing trend of very bad weather and the future impact on the insurance industry is explored. How very bad weather can affect the global financial market is explained. Taking a historical view of the development of the modern economy, the authors describe in the near term the impact of global warming on the global economy. The long term impact of global warming on the global economy and the human race is explored. Opportunities presented by global warming are described.

  7. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  8. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  9. California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2003-11-11T23:59:59.000Z

    There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research needs to be done to further improve our ability to forecast weather events at longer time scales. Seasonal predictions have been statistical and only recently have studies begun to use ensemble simulations and historical observations to constrain such predictions. Understanding the mechanisms of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and its local impacts remain topics of intensive research. The ability to predict extreme events and provide policy makers with this information, along with climate change and hydrologic response information, will help to guide planning to form a more resilient infrastructure in the future.

  10. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  11. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  12. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  13. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  14. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  15. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  16. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  17. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  20. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  1. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  2. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  3. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  4. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  5. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  6. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  7. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  8. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  9. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  10. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  11. NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and the Ohio State University, and is supported by the National Weather Service. Model output is available 734-741-2235 www.glerl.noaa.gov PREDICTING WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE NEARSHORE ZONE Most human Lakes coasts. To date, two high resolution grid experimental models have been developed for Lake

  12. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Bureau Hurricane Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    #12;#12;National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Bureau Hurricane Series ERRATA Beltsville, MD 20704-1387 November 6,2007 #12;FRELLMINARY REPORT ON HURRICANE HANNAH SEPJCEMBEIi 28-OCTOBER 6, 1959 !Phe Weather Bureau Hurricane Warning Center at M i d issued the f i r a t advisory on Hurricane

  13. A DETAILLED WEATHER DATA GENERATOR FOR BUILDINGS SIMULATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    A DETAILLED WEATHER DATA GENERATOR FOR BUILDINGS SIMULATION L. ADELARD*, H. BOYER, F. GARDE, J@iremia.univ-reunion.fr Abstract Thermal buildings simulation softwares need meteorological files in thermal comfort, energetic@iremia.univ-reunion.fr #12;1 A DETAILLED WEATHER DATA GENERATOR FOR BUILDINGS SIMULATION L. Adelard*, H. Boyer, F. Garde, J

  14. Lithium Isotope History of Cenozoic Seawater: Changes in Silicate Weathering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paytan, Adina

    Lithium Isotope History of Cenozoic Seawater: Changes in Silicate Weathering and Reverse Weathering 70 Ma · Overview of the Marine Lithium Cycle · Analytical Challenges · 68 Million Year Seawater Lithium Isotope Record (Forams) · Interpretation Standard: NIST L-SVEC Li (SRM 8545) #12;100 Ma Climate

  15. EIS-0095: Bonneville Power Administration's Expanded Residential Weatherization Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Bonneville Power Administration prepared this statement to examine the environmental impacts of an expansion of the existing Residential Weatherization Program to include air-infiltration reducing (tightening) measures, such as storm windows and doors, insulation, weather-stripping and other improvements.

  16. A weatherization manual for LIHEAP policy makers and program administrators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Witherspoon, M.J.; Marabate, R.; Weinhaus, M. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)] [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Eisenberg, J.F. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Arlington, VA (United States)] [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Arlington, VA (United States)

    1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This manual is designed to provide Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) directors with information about weatherization and innovative ways they can utilize LIHEAP funds for weatherization activities. It contains a description of innovative weatherization programs which demonstrate creative uses of LIHEAP funds in weatherization activities. In many of the innovative examples, state and local administrators are coordinating their LIHEAP funds with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program`s funding and with a variety of other federal, state and utility company resources. The innovative programs demonstrate how LIHEAP funds can be used in client education, targeting high energy users, staff training, assessment and audits for weatherization services. The reader will find in the appendices lists of contact persons and further descriptions of the programs highlighted. Although designed with LIHEAP directors in mind, the practices and programs highlighted in this manual are of practical use to any state, local or utility weatherization program administrator. The glossary at the end of the descriptive chapters will assist readers with the terminology used throughout the manual. This manual and the many resource entities cited in its appendices provide ready access to a wealth of state-of-the-art information which could lead to a more cost-effective expenditure of LIBEAP weatherization dollars.

  17. GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELING APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    ) Multisites (Spatial dependence of daily weather) -- Software R open source statistical programming language (Capable of "reproducing" any desired statistic) -- Disadvantages Synthetic weather looks too much like") Not amenable to uncertainty analysis #12;#12;#12;(2) Generalized Linear Models · Statistical Framework

  18. How Climate Change is Playing Out in Minnesota: Extreme Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    How Climate Change is Playing Out in Minnesota: Extreme Weather Dr. Mark Seeley Dept of Soil, Water Climate Headlines Data Sources Changing Minnesota Climate Features Climate Consequences Implications for Severe Weather #12;Three Reasons to Accept That Climate Change is Real #12;#12;Stationary (1) Cyclical (2

  19. Climatology of extreme rainfall from rain gauges and weather radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stoffelen, Ad

    by conventional rain gauge networks. A 10-year radar-based climatology of rainfall depths for durations of 15 minClimatology of extreme rainfall from rain gauges and weather radar Aart Overeem #12;Thesis:30 PM in the Aula #12;Aart Overeem Climatology of extreme rainfall from rain gauges and weather radar

  20. air pollution weather: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution weather First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Synoptic weather patterns and...

  1. WhyFord Escort's success was easy to forecast.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaminsky, Werner

    the weather doesn't. Quality isJob 1. This isn't just a phra~e. It's a commitment to total quality, which

  2. WHAT TO DO DURING SEVERE WEATHER WHILE ON CAMPUS If you observe a tornado/severe weather, you hear tornado sirens sound or receive a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oklahoma, University of

    WHAT TO DO DURING SEVERE WEATHER WHILE ON CAMPUS If you observe a tornado/severe weather, you hear Clear Emergency Notification Text: OU Alert: The weather danger has passed. You may resume normal activity. New this season is our 2014 Severe Weather Procedure for Particularly Dangerous Storm (PDS

  3. Weathering of Roofing Materials-An Overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berdahl, Paul; Akbari, Hashem; Levinson, Ronnen; Miller, William A.

    2006-03-30T23:59:59.000Z

    An overview of several aspects of the weathering of roofing materials is presented. Degradation of materials initiated by ultraviolet radiation is discussed for plastics used in roofing, as well as wood and asphalt. Elevated temperatures accelerate many deleterious chemical reactions and hasten diffusion of material components. Effects of moisture include decay of wood, acceleration of corrosion of metals, staining of clay, and freeze-thaw damage. Soiling of roofing materials causes objectionable stains and reduces the solar reflectance of reflective materials. (Soiling of non-reflective materials can also increase solar reflectance.) Soiling can be attributed to biological growth (e.g., cyanobacteria, fungi, algae), deposits of organic and mineral particles, and to the accumulation of flyash, hydrocarbons and soot from combustion.

  4. Peoria Housing Authority(PHA) Weatherization Training Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillip Chrismon; Jason Dollarhide

    2011-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The DOE Weatherization Training Project's goal is to obtain a solid foundation of administrative and technical knowledge so the Peoria Housing Authority (PHA) can establish and implement a successful Weatherization Program by 2011. The DOE weatherization Training Project's two objectives are to (1) build PHA's capabilities by (2) developing its staff members capacities via the acquisition of weatherization skills and competencies. The impacts from this project include: (a) the improvement and expansion of PHA staff skills, (b) the overall enhancement of the quality of the PHA workforce, which will (c) foster employment, (d) the ability to properly weatherize PHA housing stock, tribal buildings, and tribal members houses, which will (e) result in reduced energy use, and (f) improved tribal and household economies.

  5. Human-centered systems analysis of aircraft separation from adverse weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence, 1974-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Adverse weather significantly impacts the safety and efficiency of flight operations. Weather information plays a key role in mitigating the impact of adverse weather on flight operations by supporting air transportation ...

  6. Winter Weather Preparedness Have a Plan -Make a Kit -Stay Informed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oklahoma, University of

    Winter Weather Preparedness Have a Plan - Make a Kit - Stay Informed during winter weather. Move livestock to sheltered areas with non-frozen drinking. If necessary insulate walls and attic. Caulk and weather-strip doors and windowsills

  7. Impact of vegetation properties on U.S. summer weather prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Y; Fennessy, M; sellers, P

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Meteorological Center, Mon. Weather Rev. , 108, 1279-1292,VEGETATION IN U.S. SUMMER WEATHER model (SIB) for use withinConference on Numerical Weather Prediction, pp. 726 -733,

  8. An Equilibrium Pricing Model for Weather Derivatives in a Multi-commodity Setting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    e?ects and valuation of weather derivatives. The FinancialWei, J. (1999). Pricing weather derivative: an equilibrium2005). An introduction to cme weather products. www.cme.com/

  9. A Space Weather Information Service Based Upon Remote and In-Situ Measurements of Coronal Mass Ejections Heading for Earth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ritter, Birgit; Miles, Oscar; Rußwurm, Michael; Scully, Stephen; Roldán, Andrés; Hartkorn, Oliver; Jüstel, Peter; Réville, Victor; Lupu, Sorina; Ruffenach, Alexis

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Earth's magnetosphere is formed as a consequence of interaction between the planet's magnetic field and the solar wind, a continuous plasma stream from the Sun. A number of different solar wind phenomena have been studied over the past forty years with the intention of understanding and forecasting solar behavior. One of these phenomena in particular, Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can significantly disturb the Earth's magnetosphere for a short time and cause geomagnetic storms. This publication presents a mission concept consisting of six spacecraft that are equally spaced in a heliocentric orbit at 0.72 AU. These spacecraft will monitor the plasma properties, the magnetic field's orientation and magnitude, and the 3D-propagation trajectory of CMEs heading for Earth. The primary objective of this mission is to increase space weather (SW) forecasting time by means of a near real-time information service, that is based upon in-situ and remote measurements of the aforementioned CM...

  10. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  11. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  12. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  13. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  14. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  15. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  16. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  17. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  18. Weatherized Homes Saving Money for Families Across the U.S.

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    750 thousand homes have been weatherized over the past three years through the Department's Weatherization Assistance Program, saving families $400 a year on their heating and cooling bills.

  19. Accelerated Weathering of High-Level and Plutonium-bearing Lanthanide...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Weathering of High-Level and Plutonium-bearing Lanthanide Borosilicate Waste Glasses under Hydraulically Unsaturated Accelerated Weathering of High-Level and Plutonium-bearing...

  20. Survey and Analysis of Weather Data for Building Energy Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL; Shrestha, Som S [ORNL; New, Joshua Ryan [ORNL

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years, calibrated energy modeling of residential and commercial buildings has gained importance in a retrofit-dominated market. Accurate weather data plays an important role in this calibration process and projected energy savings. It would be ideal to measure weather data at the building location to capture relevant microclimate variation but this is generally considered cost-prohibitive. There are data sources publicly available with high temporal sampling rates but at relatively poor geospatial sampling locations. To overcome this limitation, there are a growing number of service providers that claim to provide real time and historical weather data for 20-35 km2 grid across the globe. Unfortunately, there is limited documentation from 3rd-party sources attesting to the accuracy of this data. This paper compares provided weather characteristics with data collected from a weather station inaccessible to the service providers. Monthly average dry bulb temperature; relative humidity; direct, diffuse and horizontal solar radiation; and wind speed are statistically compared. Moreover, we ascertain the relative contributions of each weather variable and its impact on building loads. Annual simulations are calculated for three different building types, including a closely monitored and automated energy efficient research building. The comparison shows that the difference for an individual variable can be as high as 90%. In addition, annual building energy consumption can vary by 7% while monthly building loads can vary by 40% as a function of the provided location s weather data.

  1. Progress report of the National Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berry, L.G.; Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States)

    1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Weatherization Evaluation of the 1989 Program Year and the Metaevaluation of 1996 are described in two ways in this summary document. The text pages summarize the results of the two evaluations conducted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The photographs and explanations illustrate weatherization operations and tactics. An overview and history of the program is provided, followed by the scope of weatherization, metaevaluation methods and results for 1996, national evaluation methods and results for 1989, response to evaluation findings, remaining opportunities, and next steps. Conclusions and significant findings are then given.

  2. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  3. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  4. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  5. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  8. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  9. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  10. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  11. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  12. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  13. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  14. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  15. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  16. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  17. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  18. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  19. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  20. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  2. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  3. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  4. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  5. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  6. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  7. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  8. More Weatherized Homes for Minnesota Tribe | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    been busy replacing old furnaces, sealing air leaks, and weathering stripped doors for people who are at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty line, with priority given to...

  9. Solar Diagnostics for a Space Weather Monique Pick

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Solar Diagnostics for a Space Weather program Monique Pick LESIA, Observatoire de Paris EGU 2004 #12;· Solar flares and CMEs: sources of major SW effects · Focuss on CMEs ( Earth effects: 2-4 days

  10. Development of an omni-directional weather-monitoring anemometer 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ramakrishnan, Vijay

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    measurement accuracy assessed in a calibration facility. All associated instrumentation was assembled from the ground up and ruggedized for harsh-weather applications. Field tests performed over many days next to a 3-D sonic anemometer showed good agreement...

  11. Haywood EMC- Residential Heat Pump and Weatherization Loan Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Haywood EMC offers a low interest loan to their residential customers to finance the purchase of an energy efficient heat pump and certain weatherization measures. The current interest rate is 5%...

  12. The Addition of Graphene to Polymer Coatings for Improved Weathering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nuraje, Nurxat

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Graphene nanoflakes in different weight percentages were added to polyurethane top coatings, and the coatings were evaluated relative to exposure to two different experimental conditions: one a QUV accelerated weathering ...

  13. Weatherization Subgrantees Reach More N.Y. Homes | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    22, 2010 - 4:37pm Addthis Lindsay Gsell Thanks to funds from the Recovery Act, New York expanded its network of weatherization subgrantees. The state has added nine additional...

  14. Ringing in the rain : an agent based weather warning system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Chao-Chi, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    People's daily lives are impacted by lots of dynamic environmental information, such as weather and traffic. Though most of this information is available on the Internet, there is no easy way for someone to access it while ...

  15. Identification of Robust Routes using Convective Weather Forcasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michalek, Diana

    Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), especially during summer months when travel demand is high. This has been the motivation for Air ...

  16. Lane Electric Cooperative- Residential and Commercial Weatherization Grant Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Lane Electric Cooperative offers energy efficient Weatherization Grant Programs to Lane Electric residential and commercial members: a residential cash grant for 25% of measure costs up to $1,000,...

  17. Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A webinar by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Senior Project Manager Amy Hollander on how to create a weatherization program that fosters sustainable behaviors in a community for saving energy.

  18. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  19. The development of an objective weather typing scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LaFebre, Robert Donald

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ). These classifications often increase our understanding of atmospheric phenomena. The fundamental objective of all systems of classification is to obtain the least variability within the groups and the maximum differences among them. It follows that the groups... metropolitan areas, and the passage of frontal systems. He found that above normal mortality is associated with pre-frontal weather in the northcentral and northeastern United States. It should be noted that weather effects are but one small element in a...

  20. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools