National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for weather forecasts ecmwf

  1. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  2. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  3. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  4. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  5. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  6. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  7. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  8. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  9. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  10. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  11. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  12. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  13. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  14. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  15. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  16. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  17. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  18. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  19. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  20. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  1. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  2. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  3. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  4. DEGREE DAYS AND WEATHER NOTES Weather Forecast: Chance of showers and storms through

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Isaacs, Rufus

    1 DEGREE DAYS AND WEATHER NOTES Weather Forecast: Chance of showers and storms through Thursday by ~225. Complete weather summaries and forecasts are at available enviroweather.msu.edu GDD (from March 1.isaacslab.ent.msu.edu/blueberryscout/blueberryscout.htm Contents · Crop Stages · Weather Notes · Disease Update · Scouting the Major Diseases of Highbush

  5. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  6. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  7. A Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Wei

    . Frequent pattern-based data representations have been used in various studies for abstracting climaticA Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events Dawei Wang, Wei@cs.umb.edu Abstract--Extreme weather events, like extreme rainfalls, are severe weather hazards and also the triggers

  8. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  9. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  10. 1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus- tomers, are operating within Kingdom out of a total budget of approximately £140 million for winter road maintenance. It is difficult rely on a simple set of statistics provided by the weather service providers. The current guidance

  11. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  12. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  13. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  14. Exploiting weather forecast data for cloud detection 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mackie, Shona

    2009-01-01

    Accurate, fast detection of clouds in satellite imagery has many applications, for example Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate studies of both the atmosphere and of the Earth’s surface temperature. Most ...

  15. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  16. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  17. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  18. Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howard, Tim

    to space weather forecasting T. A. Howard1 and S. J. Tappin2 Received 15 October 2009; revised 27 April with the Earth. Hence the model can be used for space weather forecasting. We present a preliminary evaluation to fully validate it for integration with existing tools for space weather forecasting. Citation: Howard, T

  19. Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    -scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 on the ingredients for particular severe weather events, a focus is provided for the forecasting process of forecasters is discussed also, as a necessary component in a balanced approach to weather forecasting

  20. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08

    .............................................................................................9 Task 1: Developing a database of solar weather data ...............................9 Task 2: Developing the ?dynamic analysis? process .............................. 10 Task 3: Developing a Java applet that presents real-time solar...-computing resources have been recently discovered. Software materials include the programming language ?Java?, the Graphical-User-Interface ?JCreator?, and Rapid Miner. We also make use of publicly available scientific databases that contain a vast plethora...

  1. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nocedal, Jorge

    Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization M. Fisher J weather prediction centers to produce the initial conditions for 7- to 10-day weather fore- casts, with particular reference to the system in operation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 1

  2. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  3. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    transport and  numerical weather modeling.   J.  Applied cross correlations.    Weather and Forecasting, 8:4, 401?of radiation for numerical weather prediction and climate 

  4. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  5. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  6. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  7. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  8. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  9. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  10. Fire weather simulation skill by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over south-east Australia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evans, Jason

    Fire weather simulation skill by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over south, Australia. D Corresponding author. Email: h.clarke@student.unsw.edu.au Abstract. The fire weather of south of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) using probability density function skill scores, annual

  11. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Solar Forecasting  1.   to more accurate prediction of solar  irradiance, given a to create daily solar electricity predictions accurate to 

  12. SYNTHESIZING WEATHER FORECASTS FROM FORMATFED DATA R.Kittredge and A.Polgu~re

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of several types of weather bulletin based on the same basic weather data, each type emphasizingSYNTHESIZING WEATHER FORECASTS FROM FORMATFED DATA R.Kittredge and A.Polgu~re D6partement de formatted weather data. Such synthesis appem~ feasible in certain natural sublanguages with stereo- typed

  13. The new Athens Center applied to Space Weather Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Sarlanis, C.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Mariatos, G.; Gerontidou, M.; Plainaki, C.; Papaioannou, A.; Tatsis, S. [University of Athens, Physics Department, Section of Nuclear and Particle Physics, Zografos 15771 Athens (Greece); Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V. [IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, 1420092 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-08-25

    The Sun provides most of the initial energy driving space weather and modulates the energy input from sources outside the solar system, but this energy undergoes many transformations within the various components of the solar-terrestrial system, which is comprised of the solar wind, magnetosphere and radiation belts, the ionosphere, and the upper and lower atmospheres of Earth. This is the reason why an Earth's based neutron monitor network can be used in order to produce a real time forecasting of space weather phenomena.Since 2004 a fully functioned new data analysis Center in real-time is in operation in Neutron Monitor Station of Athens University (ANMODAP Center) suitable for research applications. It provides a multi sided use of twenty three neutron monitor stations distributing in all world and operating in real-time given crucial information on space weather phenomena. In particular, the ANMODAP Center can give a preliminary alert of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays which can be registered around 20 to 30 minutes before the main part of lower energy particles. Therefore these energetic solar cosmic rays provide the advantage of forth warning. Moreover, the monitoring of the precursors of cosmic rays gives a forehand estimate on that kind of events should be expected (geomagnetic storms and/or Forbush decreases)

  14. 6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO Sarah J. Taylor* and Eric D. Howieson NOAA/National Weather Service Tulsa, Oklahoma 1. INTRODUCTION The modernization of the National then providesthemeteorologistanopportunitytoadjustmodel forecasts for local biases and terrain effects. The Tulsa, Oklahoma WFO has been a test office

  15. Neural network based short-term load forecasting using weather compensation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chow, T.W.S.; Leung, C.T. [City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong). Dept. of Electronic Engineering] [City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong). Dept. of Electronic Engineering

    1996-11-01

    This paper presents a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. The proposed method is a nonlinear generalization of Box and Jenkins approach for nonstationary time-series prediction. A weather compensation neural network is implemented for one-day ahead electric load forecasting. The weather compensation neural network can accurately predict the change of actual electric load consumption from the previous day. The results, based on Hong Kong Island historical load demand, indicate that this methodology is capable of providing a more accurate load forecast with a 0.9% reduction in forecast error.

  16. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  17. Information Preservation and Weather Forecasting for Black Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. W. Hawking

    2014-01-22

    It has been suggested [1] that the resolution of the information paradox for evaporating black holes is that the holes are surrounded by firewalls, bolts of outgoing radiation that would destroy any infalling observer. Such firewalls would break the CPT invariance of quantum gravity and seem to be ruled out on other grounds. A different resolution of the paradox is proposed, namely that gravitational collapse produces apparent horizons but no event horizons behind which information is lost. This proposal is supported by ADS-CFT and is the only resolution of the paradox compatible with CPT. The collapse to form a black hole will in general be chaotic and the dual CFT on the boundary of ADS will be turbulent. Thus, like weather forecasting on Earth, information will effectively be lost, although there would be no loss of unitarity.

  18. Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niyogi, Dev

    (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications DEV NIYOGI Department of Agronomy, and Department form 13 May 2008) ABSTRACT Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use model (GEM) as a land surface scheme for mesoscale weather forecasting model applications. The GEM

  19. Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud Sadjadi, Shu-Ching Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud, Miami FL {ksale002, sadjadi,chens}@cs.fiu.edu ABSTRACT Current weather forecast and visualization systems lack the scalability to support numerous customized requests for weather research and forecasting

  20. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecastsof numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecastsnumerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance

  1. Summary of the ARM activities at ECMWF from 2007-2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maike Ahlgrimm; Anton Beljaars

    2010-07-13

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as one of the leading centres in numerical weather prediction, has been an active user of observations for model evaluation for many years. Many examples exist where detailed experimental studies have inspired model improvement. To establish a link between the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research and ECMWF's model development, funding was provided for an \\u201cARM fellow\\u201d at ECMWF. Furthermore, ECMWF has been working closely with ARM related projects for many years. ECMWF provides operational analysis data for the ARM stations (permanent and mobile) as background meteorological information and ECMWF has implemented the Rapid Radiative Transport Model long wave and short wave schemes as radiation codes in the operational system. These codes were developed at Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. with ARM support and were extensively evaluated using detailed ARM observations. This short report describes the history of the ARM-fellowship at ECMWF and summarizes the achievements over the last 3 years. The emphasis of the ARM funded work over the last 3 years has been on further development and evaluation of a new shallow convection scheme in the context of ECMWF's Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. The shallow convection scheme is based on the DualM approach which combines Eddy Diffusion with a Dual Mass flux concept. One of the mass fluxes describes the dry updraughts, whereas the second updraught saturates at cloud base and penetrates into the cloud. The new scheme was optimized using single column cases from a wide range of climatological regimes. Further evaluation of the 3-dimensional model using Lidar data from space (CALIPSO) clearly indicates that the resulting cloud structures are much more realistic than the ones produced by the control model (Tiedtke mass flux scheme). Additionally, data from the ARM mobile facility in 2006 in Niamey has been used to evaluate the surface energy balance in the ECMWF model. It turns out that substantial errors exist in the radiative and turbulent fluxes in the Sahel. These energy budget errors are believed to be detrimental to the simulated flow over West Africa. This was the first time that such verification was possible. It is obvious that the radiative impact of aerosols needs further investigation.

  2. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  3. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    Evaluation of numerical weather prediction solar irradiancecycle: The RUC. Monthly Weather Review, 132 (2), 495-518.representations. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (6), 1972-1995.

  4. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  5. Towards Dynamically Adaptive Weather Analysis and Forecasting in LEAD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    "mesoscale" weather events. In this paper we discuss an architectural framework that is forming our thinking "mesoscale" weather events. This is accomplished by middleware that facilitates adaptive uti- lization. The meteorology goal of the project is improved prediction of mesoscale weather phenomena; that is, regional scale

  6. Development and initial application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting model with chemistry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Yang

    Development and initial application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting model with chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem), J. In this work, a global-through-urban WRF/Chem model (i.e., GU-WRF/Chem) has been developed to provide

  7. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    electric grid. Chapter 2 Marine Layer Meteorology 2.1 Marine Layer Stratocumulus Overview In coastal California, the dominant weather

  8. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-26

    Facilities such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), which contain the potential for hazardous atmospheric releases, rely on the predictive capabilities of dispersion models to assess possible emergency response actions. The operational design in relation to domain size and forecast time is presented, along with verification of model results over extended time periods with archived surface observations.

  9. SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    turbines and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the domain of gas turbines we are working on summarizing sensor data from an op- erational gas turbine (Yu et. al., 2003) for the maintenance engineersSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

  10. SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    turbines and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the domain of gas turbines we are working on summarizing sensor data from an opera- tional gas turbine (Yu et. al., 2003) for the maintenance engineersSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

  11. Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Basu, Sukanta

    are thus needed for precise assessment of wind resources, reliable prediction of power generation and robust design of wind turbines. However, mesoscale numerical weather prediction models face a chal- lenge: Implications for Wind Energy Brandon Storm*, Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech

  12. Implementation of the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, K A

    2006-12-07

    Accurate simulations of atmospheric boundary layer flow are vital for predicting dispersion of contaminant releases, particularly in densely populated urban regions where first responders must react within minutes and the consequences of forecast errors are potentially disastrous. Current mesoscale models do not account for urban effects, and conversely urban scale models do not account for mesoscale weather features or atmospheric physics. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop and implement an immersed boundary method (IBM) along with a surface roughness parameterization into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. IBM will be used in WRF to represent the complex boundary conditions imposed by urban landscapes, while still including forcing from regional weather patterns and atmospheric physics. This document details preliminary results of this research, including the details of three distinct implementations of the immersed boundary method. Results for the three methods are presented for the case of a rotation influenced neutral atmospheric boundary layer over flat terrain.

  13. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  14. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil, 2. Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Brazil 3.Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR), Brazil, 4. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), Brazil, 5. European Centre for Medium-Range and Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 6. United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), UK, 7. University

  15. Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.; Chen, S.; Dudhia, J.; Hart, L.; Klemp, J.; Middlecoff, J.; Skamarock, W.

    2001-02-05

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) project is a multi-institutional effort to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system that is accurate, efficient, and scalable across a range of scales and over a host of computer platforms. The first release, WRF 1.0, was November 30, 2000, with operational deployment targeted for the 2004-05 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the project and current status of the WRF development effort in the areas of numerics and physics, software and data architecture, and single-source parallelism and performance portability.

  16. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ben C Allanach; Kyle Cranmer; Christopher G Lester; Arne M Weber

    2007-07-05

    Previous LHC forecasts for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), based on current astrophysical and laboratory measurements, have used priors that are flat in the parameter tan beta, while being constrained to postdict the central experimental value of MZ. We construct a different, new and more natural prior with a measure in mu and B (the more fundamental MSSM parameters from which tan beta and MZ are actually derived). We find that as a consequence this choice leads to a well defined fine-tuning measure in the parameter space. We investigate the effect of such on global CMSSM fits to indirect constraints, providing posterior probability distributions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) sparticle production cross sections. The change in priors has a significant effect, strongly suppressing the pseudoscalar Higgs boson dark matter annihilation region, and diminishing the probable values of sparticle masses. We also show how to interpret fit information from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo in a frequentist fashion; namely by using the profile likelihood. Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of CMSSM fits are compared and contrasted.

  17. Virginie GUEMAS, Lead researcher for Polar Climate Prediction in the Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) at IC3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Virginie GUEMAS, Lead researcher for Polar Climate Prediction in the Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU in exchange for a commitment to do a PhD. INVITED STAYS · ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather, Reading, England).in December 2008: invitation by Rowan Sutton for a one-week stay #12;PEER REVIEWED

  18. The Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    In countries showing high wind energy shares in the elec- trical power supply grid, a "wind power weatherThe Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model Laboratory, P.O. box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Tel/Fax: +45 4677 5095 / 5970 Gregor.Giebel@Risoe.DK Wind power

  19. Design of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.

    1999-01-13

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is a new model development effort undertaken jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a number of collaborating institutions and university scientists. The model is intended for use by operational NWP and university research communities, providing a common framework for idealized dynamical studies, fill physics numerical weather prediction, air-quality simulation, and regional climate. It will eventually supersede large, well-established but aging regional models now maintained by the participating institutions. The WRF effort includes re-engineering the underlying software architecture to produce a modular, flexible code designed from the outset to provide portable performance across diverse computing architectures. This paper outlines key elements of the WRF software design.

  20. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

    2012-06-01

    Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

  2. Incorporation of 3D Shortwave Radiative Effects within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Hirok, W.; Ricchiazzi, P.; Gautier, C.

    2005-03-18

    A principal goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is to understand the 3D cloud-radiation problem from scales ranging from the local to the size of global climate model (GCM) grid squares. For climate models using typical cloud overlap schemes, 3D radiative effects are minimal for all but the most complicated cloud fields. However, with the introduction of ''superparameterization'' methods, where sub-grid cloud processes are accounted for by embedding high resolution 2D cloud system resolving models within a GCM grid cell, the impact of 3D radiative effects on the local scale becomes increasingly relevant (Randall et al. 2003). In a recent study, we examined this issue by comparing the heating rates produced from a 3D and 1D shortwave radiative transfer model for a variety of radar derived cloud fields (O'Hirok and Gautier 2005). As demonstrated in Figure 1, the heating rate differences for a large convective field can be significant where 3D effects produce areas o f intense local heating. This finding, however, does not address the more important question of whether 3D radiative effects can alter the dynamics and structure of a cloud field. To investigate that issue we have incorporated a 3D radiative transfer algorithm into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Here, we present very preliminary findings of a comparison between cloud fields generated from a high resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather model using 1D and 3D radiative transfer codes.

  3. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  6. Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and the variations in atmospheric conditions that produce weather. The Weather Machine, LANL's meteorological monitoring program, supports Laboratory operations and...

  7. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    cycle:  The RUC.  Monthly Weather  Review.   132, 495?518.  th  Conference on  Numerical Weather Prediction.   American closure schemes.   Monthly Weather Review.   122, 927?945.  

  8. COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather research and forecasting: community input COSPAR and the International Living With a Star (ILWS) steering committee have commissioned a strategic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather research and forecasting: community input commissioned a strategic planning activity (or roadmap) focusing on the ability access as supplemental information to the roadmap report. In order

  9. Inclusion of biomass burning in WRF-Chem: Impact of wildfires on weather forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grell, G. A.; Freitas, Saulo; Stuefer, Martin; Fast, Jerome D.

    2011-06-06

    A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather forecasts using model resolutions of 10km and 2km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the final emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations, the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation led to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5) and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) had a strong impact on clouds and microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 hours of the integration, but significantly stronger storms during the afternoon hours.

  10. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  11. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  12. Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baran, Sándor

    2014-01-01

    Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods an...

  13. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  14. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on using satellite data.   Solar Energy 67:1?3, 139?150.  

  15. Astron. Nachr. / AN 328, No. 3/4, 329 338 (2007) / DOI 10.1002/asna.200610739 Towards using modern data assimilation and weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brun, Allan Sacha

    2007-01-01

    solar wind and energetic plasma eruptions a direct impact on the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere modern data assimilation and weather forecasting methods in solar physics A.S. Brun DSM/DAPNIA/SAp, CEA words Sun: activity ­ Sun: magnetic fields ­ Sun: rotation ­ solar-terrestrial relation ­ methods

  16. Development and Initial Application of the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research1 and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem)2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nenes, Athanasios

    1 Development and Initial Application of the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research1 and Forecasting-cloud-radiation-precipitation-climate interactions. In this work, a global-through-urban33 WRF/Chem model (i.e., GU-WRF/Chem) has been developed photolysis rate, near-surface temperature, wind speed at 10-m, planetary boundary layer height,40

  17. Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

    2010-06-27

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

  18. Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

    2010-03-15

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

  19. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    1967-01-01

    measurements taken with weather radar. In addition, accurate estimates of lag time can be made from radar observations. For a storm which is unevenly distributed over the watershed, it is demonstrated that a better estimation of lag time may be made from radar...

  20. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  1. Nimble@ITCEcnoGrid: A Grid in Research Domain for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dhir, Vijay; Dutta, Maitreyee; 10.5121/ijgca.2011.2404

    2012-01-01

    Computer Technology has Revolutionized Science. This has motivated scientists to develop mathematical model to simulate salient features of Physical universe. These models can approximate reality at many levels of scale such as atomic nucleus, Earth's biosphere & weather/climate assessment. If the computer power is greater, the greater will be the accuracy in approximation i.e. close will be the approximation to the reality. The speed of the computer required for solution of such problems require computers with processing power of teraflops to Pets flops speed.. The way to speed up the computation is to "parallelize" it. One of the approach is to use multimillion dollar Supercomputer or use Computational Grid (which is also called poor man's supercomputer) having geographically distributed resources e.g. SETI@home (Used to detect radio waves emitted by intelligent civilizations outside earth) has 4.6 million participants computers. There are many alternatives tools available to achieve this goal like Glob...

  2. Weather

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-Inspired SolarAbout /Two0Photos and Videos/01/2012 Page| National NuclearWeather

  3. The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

  4. Diagnosis of the summertime warm and dry bias over the U. S. Southern Great Plains in the GFDL climate model using a weather forecasting approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klein, S A; Jiang, X; Boyle, J; Malyshev, S; Xie, S

    2006-07-11

    Weather forecasts started from realistic initial conditions are used to diagnose the large warm and dry bias over the United States Southern Great Plains simulated by the GFDL climate model. The forecasts exhibit biases in surface air temperature and precipitation within 3 days which appear to be similar to the climate bias. With the model simulating realistic evaporation but underestimated precipitation, a deficit in soil moisture results which amplifies the initial temperature bias through feedbacks with the land surface. The underestimate of precipitation is associated with an inability of the model to simulate the eastward propagation of convection from the front-range of the Rocky Mountains and is insensitive to an increase of horizontal resolution from 2{sup o} to 0.5{sup o} latitude.

  5. RECONSTRUCTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH COORDINATED IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS: GLOBAL STRUCTURE, KINEMATICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu Ying; Luhmann, Janet G.; Lin, Robert P.; Bale, Stuart D. [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Thernisien, Arnaud [Universities of Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21044 (United States); Vourlidas, Angelos [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Davies, Jackie A., E-mail: liuxying@ssl.berkeley.ed [Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-20

    We reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using coordinated imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. A forward modeling technique, which assumes a rope-like morphology for CMEs, is used to determine the global structure (including orientation and propagation direction) from coronagraph observations. We reconstruct the corresponding structure from in situ measurements at 1 AU with the Grad-Shafranov method, which gives the flux-rope orientation, cross section, and a rough knowledge of the propagation direction. CME kinematics (propagation direction and radial distance) during the transit from the Sun to 1 AU are studied with a geometric triangulation technique, which provides an unambiguous association between solar observations and in situ signatures; a track fitting approach is invoked when data are available from only one spacecraft. We show how the results obtained from imaging and in situ data can be compared by applying these methods to the 2007 November 14-16 and 2008 December 12 CMEs. This merged imaging and in situ study shows important consequences and implications for CME research as well as space weather forecasting: (1) CME propagation directions can be determined to a relatively good precision as shown by the consistency between different methods; (2) the geometric triangulation technique shows a promising capability to link solar observations with corresponding in situ signatures at 1 AU and to predict CME arrival at the Earth; (3) the flux rope within CMEs, which has the most hazardous southward magnetic field, cannot be imaged at large distances due to expansion; (4) the flux-rope orientation derived from in situ measurements at 1 AU may have a large deviation from that determined by coronagraph image modeling; and (5) we find, for the first time, that CMEs undergo a westward migration with respect to the Sun-Earth line at their acceleration phase, which we suggest is a universal feature produced by the magnetic field connecting the Sun and ejecta. The importance of having dedicated spacecraft at L4 and L5, which are well situated for the triangulation concept, is also discussed based on the results.

  6. Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other Hurricane watchers predict an active Hurricane Season for the U.S. Connecticut has been severely affected many times by Hurricanes. Individuals, businesses and communities can take some basic st

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Post, David M.

    Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other Hurricane watchers predict an active Hurricane Season for the U.S. Connecticut has been severely affected many times by Hurricanes. Individuals, businesses and communities can take some basic steps to be better informed about and prepared for Hurricanes

  7. Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S

    2007-06-01

    By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.

  8. A, Science Service Feature ? WHY TRE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. 228 May 80 A, Science Service Feature ? WHY TRE WEATHER ? Dr, Charles E', Brooks of C 1ark% carefully follow the Weather Bureau's forecast. Tho khserver at the central office c)f ,the Weather Bureau unnecessarily, neither does he get wet. Though the weather rilanls wife scoffs at his forecasts, she always asks

  9. A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tianzhen

    2014-01-01

    DB. Weather data for building performance simulation.forecast models, weather data, and building prototypes havethe TMY3 weather data in building simulations to evaluate

  10. Green Bank Weather Dana S. Balser

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balser, Dana S.

    Green Bank Weather Dana S. Balser #12;Weather Resources 1. Weather Stations 2. Weather Forecasts (NOAA/Maddalena) 3. Pyrgeometer 4. 86 GHz Tipping Radiometer 5. 12 GHz Interferometer #12;Weather Parameters 1 May 2004 to 1 March 2007 speedwindousInstantaneV :Hz)(12StationWeather e

  11. NOAA's National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NOAA's National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation For more information, please visit: www.noaa.gov and www.nws.noaa.gov NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is the Nation's official source for weather and water data, forecasts, and warnings. From information accessed on your smartphone

  12. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  13. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  14. Severe Weather on the Web: Computer Lab for WEST Severe Weather Module

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Haiyan

    Severe Weather on the Web: Computer Lab for WEST Severe Weather Module Summary: Students Weather Service-- National Weather Hazards Website: http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php --This termforecasts in the lower 48 USstates. Definitions Forecast--The prediction of what the weather

  15. Impact of a Revised Convective Triggering Mechanism on CAM2 Model Simulations: Results from Short-Range Weather Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, S; Boyle, J S; Cederwall, R T; Potter, G L; Zhang, M; Lin, W

    2004-02-19

    This study implements a revised convective triggering condition in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) model to reduce its excessive warm season daytime precipitation over land. The new triggering mechanism introduces a simple dynamic constraint on the initiation of convection that emulates the collective effects of lower level moistening and upward motion of the large-scale circulation. It requires a positive contribution from the large-scale advection of temperature and moisture to the existing positive Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for model convection to start. In contrast, the original convection triggering function in CAM2 assumes that convection is triggered whenever there is positive CAPE, which results in too frequent warm season convection over land arising from strong diurnal variation of solar radiation. We examine the impact of the new trigger on CAM2 simulations by running the climate model in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) mode so that more available observations and high-frequency NWP analysis data can be used to evaluate model performance. We show that the modified triggering mechanism has led to considerable improvements in the simulation of precipitation, temperature, moisture, clouds, radiations, surface temperature, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes when compared to the data collected from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its South Great Plains (SGP) site. Similar improvements are also seen over other parts of the globe. In particular, the surface precipitation simulation has been significantly improved over both the continental United States and around the globe; the overestimation of high clouds in the equatorial tropics has been substantially reduced; and the temperature, moisture, and zonal wind are more realistically simulated. Results from this study also show that some systematic errors in the CAM2 climate simulations can be detected in the early stage of model integration. Examples are the extremely overestimated high clouds in the tropics in the vicinity of ITCZ and the spurious precipitation maximum in the east of the Rockies. This has important implications in studies of these model errors since running the climate model in NWP mode allows us to perform a more in-depth analysis during a short time period where more observations are available and different model errors from various processes have not compensated for the systematic errors.

  16. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  17. BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECASTS OF THE GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM by Chih and forecast issues ranging from mesoscale weather to climate change in various monsoon regions of the globe organized under the new World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The previous emphasis of this workshop

  18. Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author into numerical weather4 prediction models can improve precipitation forecasts and extend prediction capabilities5 that assimilates precipitation-affected microwave radiances into the7 Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

  19. PI Research Organisation Project Title NE/J024678/1 Dr Christopher Davis University of Reading Driving space weather forecasts with real data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /1 A modeling study of the impact of mesoscale air sea interactions over the Gulf Stream on weather and climate

  20. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  1. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  2. Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamicalstatistical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid 20 September 2010; published 9 November 2010. [1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane between the number of seasonal hurricane and the large scale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase

  3. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  4. THE GALACTIC CENTER WEATHER FORECAST

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moscibrodzka, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nevada, 4505 South Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154 (United States); Shiokawa, H.; Gammie, C. F. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Dolence, J. C., E-mail: monikam@physics.unlv.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2012-06-10

    In accretion-based models for Sgr A*, the X-ray, infrared, and millimeter emission arise in a hot, geometrically thick accretion flow close to the black hole. The spectrum and size of the source depend on the black hole mass accretion rate M-dot . Since Gillessen et al. have recently discovered a cloud moving toward Sgr A* that will arrive in summer 2013, M-dot may increase from its present value M-dot{sub 0}. We therefore reconsider the 'best-bet' accretion model of Moscibrodzka et al., which is based on a general relativistic MHD flow model and fully relativistic radiative transfer, for a range of M-dot . We find that for modest increases in M-dot the characteristic ring of emission due to the photon orbit becomes brighter, more extended, and easier to detect by the planned Event Horizon Telescope submillimeter Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiment. If M-dot {approx}>8 M-dot{sub 0}, this 'silhouette' of the black hole will be hidden beneath the synchrotron photosphere at 230 GHz, and for M-dot {approx}>16 M-dot{sub 0} the silhouette is hidden at 345 GHz. We also find that for M-dot > 2 M-dot{sub 0} the near-horizon accretion flow becomes a persistent X-ray and mid-infrared source, and in the near-infrared Sgr A* will acquire a persistent component that is brighter than currently observed flares.

  5. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  6. Social Science in NOAA Weather John Gaynor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Social Science in NOAA Weather Research John Gaynor Director Office of Weather and Air Quality NOAA Impacts Program #12;Vision a society that maximizes the net social benefit of weather information Mission improve the societal benefits of weather forecasting Goal national and international focal point of social

  7. -A Science Service Feature ? WHY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. 772 Oct. 31 -A Science Service Feature ? WHY THE WEATHER ? By Dr. Charles B. Brooks of Clark University. FORECASTING WEATHER FOR BEES Many people consult the Weather Bureau before planning a picnic o r the service. In the f a l l of 1923 the Weather Bureau started a Special service In theregion north

  8. Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter & Hurricane Jefferson Lab's Emergency Management Severe Weather Team continues monitoring the forecasts and conditions...

  9. NOAA's Proposed Climate Service Background updated 7/13/11 NOAA's shortterm weather forecasts of conditions out to about twoweeks are critical to saving lives and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts of conditions out to about twoweeks are critical to saving lives and property. Similarly, NOAA to saving lives and property. For example: o firefighters in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona used industry estimates it saved $300 million per year in construction costs alone by using temperature trends

  10. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  11. Understanding space weather to shield society

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Understanding space weather to shield society Improving understanding and forecasts of space weather requires addressing scientific challenges within the network of physical processes that connect the Sun to society. The roadmap team identified the highest-priority areas within the Sun-Earth space-weather

  12. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  13. CROPS AND SOILS RESEARCH PAPER Improved weather-based late blight risk management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    CROPS AND SOILS RESEARCH PAPER Improved weather-based late blight risk management: comparing models of weather data. Although many new digital weather and forecast datasets are gridded data, the current improvements made to an artificial neuralnetwork for forecasting weather-based potato late blight (Phytophthora

  14. Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant. Both modeling

  15. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  16. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  17. Data Network Weather Service Reporting - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael Frey

    2012-08-30

    A final report is made of a three-year effort to develop a new forecasting paradigm for computer network performance. This effort was made in co-ordination with Fermi Lab's construction of e-Weather Center.

  18. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  19. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  20. Lateral boundary errors in regional numerical weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ?umer, Slobodan

    Lateral boundary errors in regional numerical weather prediction models Author: Ana Car Advisor, they describe evolution of atmospher - weather forecast. Every NWP model solves the same system of equations (1: assoc. prof. dr. Nedjeljka Zagar January 5, 2015 Abstract Regional models are used in many national

  1. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  2. The Role of "Citizen Science" in Weather and Climate Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    stations to help document Climate resources of the country And provide science-based weather forecasts by volunteers to see their data put to use. #12;Weather reports began on Pikes Peak in 1873 Credit: NOAA Photo weather and climate data were simple ­ Determining the "climate resource" of our country -- specifically

  3. ForPeerReview Verification of Mountain Weather Information Service

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birch, Cathryn

    ForPeerReview Verification of Mountain Weather Information Service forecasts for three upland areas in the UK Journal: Weather Manuscript ID: WEA-13-0098.R1 Wiley - Manuscript type: Research Article Date and Environment Birch, Cathryn; University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment Monk, Geoffrey; The Weather

  4. Interactive Weather Simulation and Visualization on a Display Wall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ha, Phuong H.

    Interactive Weather Simulation and Visualization on a Display Wall with Many-Core Compute Nodes B.hoai.ha,john.markus.bjorndalen,otto.anshus}@uit.no, {tormsh,daniels}@cs.uit.no Abstract. Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) used for op- erational weather forecasting are typically run at predetermined times at a predetermined resolution and a fixed

  5. NOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , it goes a long way But if he hits it from the top of a hill, it goes even farther. So, if my dad had super will need is an instrument to tell whether it's hot or cold down below. Good! In your kitchen, place a tray of ice near a bowl of hot tap water. Move your hand over the ice, then over the hot water. Do you feel

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  7. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  8. Real-time, rapidly updating severe weather products for virtual globes Travis M. Smitha

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakshmanan, Valliappa

    Real-time, rapidly updating severe weather products for virtual globes Travis M. Smitha It is critical that weather forecasters are able to put severe weather information from a variety audience. In this paper, we describe the data and methods for enabling severe weather threat analysis

  9. Commercial Weatherization

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Commercial buildings consume 19 percent of the energy used in the U.S. Learn how the Energy Department is supporting research and deployment on commercial weatherization.

  10. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  11. PV powering a weather station for severe weather

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, W. Jr. [Florida Solar Energy Center, Cocoa, FL (United States); Schmidt, J. [Joe Schmidt, Inc., Miami, FL (United States)

    1997-12-31

    A natural disaster, such as Hurricane Andrew, destroys thousands of homes and businesses. The destruction from this storm left thousands of people without communications, potable water, and electrical power. This prompted the Florida Solar Energy Center to study the application of solar electric power for use in disasters. During this same period, volunteers at the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, Florida and the Miami Office of the National Weather Service (NWS) were working to increase the quantity and quality of observations received from home weather stations. Forecasters at NHC have found surface reports from home weather stations a valuable tool in determining the size, strength and course of hurricanes. Home weather stations appear able to record the required information with an adequate level of accuracy. Amateur radio, utilizing the Automatic Packet Report System, (APRS) can be used to transmit this data to weather service offices in virtually real time. Many weather data collecting stations are at remote sites which are not readily serviced by dependable commercial power. Photovoltaic (solar electric) modules generate electricity and when connected to a battery can operate as a stand alone power system. The integration of these components provides an inexpensive standalone system. The system is easy to install, operates automatically and has good communication capabilities. This paper discusses the design criteria, operation, construction and deployment of a prototype solar powered weather station.

  12. Weatherization Roundup

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    More than 750 thousand homes were weatherized by the Department’s Weatherization Assistance Program in the past three years. Secretary Chu spoke with governors and members of Congress around the country to celebrate this huge accomplishment -- which was finished ahead of schedule and is saving the average household $400 annually on their heating and cooling bills.

  13. Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balakrishnan, Hamsa

    Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage ...

  14. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  15. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  16. Value of global weather sensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canavan, G.H.

    1998-12-23

    Long-range weather predictions have great scientific and economic potential, but require precise global observations. Small balloon transponders could serve as lagrangian trace particles to measure the vector wind, which is the primary input to long-range numerical forecasts. The wind field is difficult to measure; it is at present poorly sampled globally. Distance measuring equipment (DME) triangulation of signals from roughly a million transponders could sample it with sufficient accuracy to support {approximately} two week forecasts. Such forecasts would have great scientific and economic potential which is estimated below. DME uses small, low-power transmitters on each transponder to broadcast short, low-power messages that are detected by several small receivers and forwarded to the ground station for processing of position, velocity, and state information. Thus, the transponder is little more than a balloon with a small radio, which should only weigh a few grams and cost a few dollars.

  17. HELIOPHYSICS V. SPACE WEATHER AND SOCIETY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    on the electric power grid 74 David Boteler 4.1 Introduction 74 4.2 Cause of power system problems 75 4.3 Magnetic on transformers 87 4.7 System impacts 88 4.8 Hazard assessment 91 4.9 Space weather forecasting for power grids 93HELIOPHYSICS V. SPACE WEATHER AND SOCIETY Early chapter collection v. January 5, 2015 http

  18. Weatherizing America

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Stewart, Zachary; Bergeron, T.J.; Barth, Dale; Qualis, Xavier; Sewall, Travis; Fransen, Richard; Gill, Tony;

    2013-05-29

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working again, but also to find a calling.

  19. Weatherizing America

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working...

  20. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  1. A Chapter In Space Weather: Physics and Effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vassiliadis, Dimitrios

    costs. A smaller number of assets is on Earth's surface (electric power grids, pipeline systems- 1 - A Chapter In Space Weather: Physics and Effects by V. Bothmer and I.A. Daglis (editors) Springer Praxis September 2005 Draft date: March 9, 2007 Forecasting Space Weather Dimitris Vassiliadis ST

  2. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach HomeA Better Anode Design to Improve Lithium-Ion Batteries PrintA New SolarA Present . . . AndSystem

  3. Scatterometer-Based Assessment of 10-m Wind Analyses from the Operational ECMWF and NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    .75 and 1.5 m s 1 for the along-wind and crosswind components, respectively. The NSCAT and QuikSCAT datasets

  4. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed weather prediction step-coordinate Eta Model are able to forecast winds for the Great Lakes region, using

  5. Long Range Evolution-based Path Planning for UAVs through Realistic Weather Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Long Range Evolution-based Path Planning for UAVs through Realistic Weather Environments Juan Planning for UAVs through Realistic Weather Environments Juan Carlos Rubio Torroella Co range flights is pre- sented. The planner makes use of wind information from actual weather forecast

  6. Synoptic Code Symbols with Range of Values BBXX Ship Weather Report Indicator BBXX

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather data indicator 1, 3 h Cloud base height 0-9, / VV Visibility 90-99 N Cloud cover 0-9, / dd Wind Administration National Weather Service National Data Buoy Center Building 1007 Stennis Space Center, MS 39529 be vast marine areas without data, making weather forecasting nearly impossible for these areas

  7. Feedback Control of the National Airspace System to Mitigate Weather Disruptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Le Ny, Jerome

    Feedback Control of the National Airspace System to Mitigate Weather Disruptions Jerome Le Ny during a weather event, given a probabilistic forecast of capacities. We also address the management to weather disruptions. I. INTRODUCTION The frequent occurrence of air traffic delays in the Na- tional

  8. he Cooperative Observer Program is a unique partnership between the National Weather Service

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T he Cooperative Observer Program is a unique partnership between the National Weather Service the nation with a cost-effective way to collect weather data for immediate forecasting needs and longer with Congressional passage of the National Weather Service Organic Act, which set up a system to recruit and train

  9. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  11. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  12. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  13. o help guard against the ravages of severe weather, NOAA's National Weather Service designed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    redundant methods to receive severe weather forecasts/warnings and alert the public, · Create a system and flood operations. Tsunami tragedies over the past decade have reminded the world of the socioeconomic impacts this hazard can inflict. Major tsunami events include: the Indian Ocean in December 2004, Samoa

  14. "The Voice of NOAA's National Weather Service" Supporting NOAA's Weather Ready Nation Initiative

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Warnings are broadcast for both natural (such as tsunamis and volcanoes) and man-made (such as Amber Alerts federally operated system broadcasting weather and emergency warnings to the public. Reception of NWR) warnings, watches, forecasts and other emergency information from nearby NWS offices 24 hours a day. Known

  15. Social Media: Space Weather #SpaceWeather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/spaceweatherandgpssystems #SpaceWeather #12;Space Weather Impacts on the Power Grid Facebook The electric power grid. To learn about space weather and impacts to the electric grid visit http on the Power Grid Space Weather and the Aurora Borealis What are Solar Flares? What are Coronal Mass

  16. Discussion of long-range weather prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canavan, G.H.

    1998-09-10

    A group of scientists at Los Alamos have held a series of discussions of the issues in and prospects for improvements in Long-range Weather Predictions Enabled by Proving of the Atmosphere at High Space-Time Resolution. The group contained the requisite skills for a full evaluation, although this report presents only an informal discussion of the main technical issues. The group discussed all aspects of the proposal, which are grouped below into the headings: (1) predictability; (2) sensors and satellites, (3) DIAL and atmospheric sensing; (4) localized transponders; and (5) summary and integration. Briefly, the group agreed that the relative paucity of observations of the state of the atmosphere severely inhibits the accuracy of weather forecasts, and any program that leads to a more dense and uniform observational network is welcome. As shown in Long-range Weather more dense and uniform observational network is welcome. As shown in Long-range Weather Predictions, the pay-back of accurate long-range forecasts should more than justify the expenditure associated with improved observations and forecast models required. The essential step is to show that the needed technologies are available for field test and space qualification.

  17. Sensitivity of Coastal Currents near Point Conception to Forcing by Three Different Winds: ECMWF, COAMPS, and Blended SSM/IECMWFBuoy Winds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sensitivity of Coastal Currents near Point Conception to Forcing by Three Different Winds: ECMWF, COAMPS, and Blended SSM/I­ECMWF­Buoy Winds CHANGMING DONG AND LIE-YAUW OEY Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey (Manuscript received 16 January 2004

  18. Evaluation of ECMWF cloud type simulations at the ARM Southern Great Plains site using a new cloud type climatology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evaluation of ECMWF cloud type simulations at the ARM Southern Great Plains site using a new cloud; accepted 13 December 2006; published 3 February 2007. [1] A new method to derive a cloud type climatology is applied to cloud observations over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM

  19. Building a Weather-Ready Nation Winter Weather Safety

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Building a Weather-Ready Nation Winter Weather Safety NOAA/NWS Winter Weather Safety Seasonal Campaign www.weather.gov #12;Building a Weather-Ready Nation Winter Weather Hazards Winter Weather Safety www.weather.gov · Snow/Ice · Blizzards · Flooding · Cold Temperatures #12;Building a Weather

  20. Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation uncertainty. Machine learning methods can produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts from the raw ensemble and machine learning are working to address these challenges. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models

  1. web page: http://w3.pppl.gov/~ zakharov On Real Time Forecasts (RTF) of Tokamak Discharges1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    structure (Data Base) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.3 Communication control of code to "yesterday" weather analysis) or predictive codes ("next month" weather predictions), RTF targets a forecast of the plasma regime, e.g., in 0.1 e (like the "next hour" weather predictions). Three components, crucial

  2. web page: http://w3.pppl.gov/~ zakharov On Real Time Forecasts (RTF) of Tokamak Discharges 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    structure (Data Base) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.3 Communication control of code to "yesterday" weather analysis) or predictive codes ("next month" weather predictions), RTF targets a forecast of the plasma regime, e.g., in 0.1 # e (like the "next hour" weather predictions). Three components, crucial

  3. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  4. s the nation's weather and oceans agency, NOAA plays a major role before, during and after a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    real-time data from NOAA's polar orbiting and geostationary weather satellites, ocean and coastal observing systems, and land-based radars. NOAA's local National Weather Service forecast offices incorporate for inland high winds, flooding and severe weather -- including tornadoes. Data from the atmosphere are also

  5. THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED: COLLABORATIVE TESTING OF ENSEMBLE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF MODELS AND SUBSEQUENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED: COLLABORATIVE TESTING OF ENSEMBLE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a joint facility managed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the NWS Oklahoma City/Norman Weather Forecast

  6. Climatology and Trends in the Forcing of the Stratospheric Ozone Transport

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    A thorough analysis of the ozone transport was carried out using the Transformed-Mean Eulerian (TEM) tracer transport equation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA-40). In ...

  7. Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric ozone transport

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    A thorough analysis of the ozone transport was carried out using the Transformed-Mean Eulerian (TEM) tracer continuity equation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). In ...

  8. Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Why it makes sense for one technical college in Charleston, South Carolina is adding weatherization programs to their curriculum.

  9. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  10. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Zoi, Cath

    2013-05-29

    Right now, the Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  11. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  12. FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO-MEMBER ENSEMBLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schubert, Wayne H.

    system using an efficient multigrid barotropic vorticity equation model (MBAR). Five perturbation classes Advisor Department Head ii #12;ABSTRACT OF THESIS FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO forecasts. These increases have been largely driven by improved numerical weather prediction models

  13. Forecast of solar ejecta arrival at 1 AU from radial speed S. Dasso1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dasso, Sergio

    Forecast of solar ejecta arrival at 1 AU from radial speed S. Dasso1,2 , N. Gopalswamy1 and A. Lara of the major requirements to forecast the space weather conditions in the terrestrial envi- ronment. Several properties, such as the background solar wind speed, and the density of the ejecta. However, only a few

  14. Weather Photos - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    weather Mammatus clouds Mammatus clouds Mammatus Clouds Mammatus Clouds Mammatus clouds Mammatus clouds Downburst Downburst...

  15. Solar thematic maps for space weather operations E. Joshua Rigler,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique Weather, 10, S08009, doi:10.1029/2012SW000780. 1. Introduction [2] Forecasters at the NOAA Space Weather algorithms on powerful computers. Sometimes first-principle physics are used to convert raw measurements

  16. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  17. Building a Weather-Ready Nation Fall Weather Safety

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Building a Weather-Ready Nation Fall Weather Safety www.weather.gov/safety Wildfire ­ Drought ­ Hurricanes ­ Wind ­ Early Season Winter ­ Flood #12;Building a Weather-Ready Nation Wildfire Safety smoking materials. weather.gov/wildfire www.weather.gov/safety #12;Building a Weather-Ready Nation

  18. A Science Service -Feature*.-..-7 WHY THE WEATHER '1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the data on solar radiation, :Dr. C, G, Abbot, who collected these data, then discusses the analysis, and night, occupied with a symposium on solar radiation and the weather, probably the mcbt This morning, finally, 3. Helm Clayton, who has used the data f o r forecasting, discusses t o what extent solar heat

  19. Estimating the likelihood of weather criteria exceedance during marine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brabazon, P.G. [Four Elements Ltd., London (United Kingdom); Gudmestad, O.T. [Statoil, Stavanger (Norway); Hopkins, J.S.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes an approach to estimating the probability of marine operations being exposed to unsafe weather conditions. Marine operations, both inshore and offshore, are normally sensitive to environmental conditions. For the majority of operations threshold weather criteria will be predefined. An estimate of the likelihood of the operation experiencing bad weather, taking into account the uncertainties in weather forecasting, is of great value. The method is intended to be used as part of a risk assessment of marine operations, enabling the impact of design and scheduling decisions to be assessed in a structured and systematic way. The method has two components. Firstly, the time to complete an operation is defined in the form of a probability/time distribution. This is done by analyzing the duration of the tasks within the operation and identifying possible causes of delays. The likelihood and duration of each delay is estimated. Secondly, a probability/time curve is defined for the weather conditions exceeding the predefined threshold. The curve is determined by reference to the location of the marine operation, the time of year of the operation, the initial weather conditions and the accuracy of weather forecasting. Using the two probability/time curves, the likelihood of exposure is calculated.

  20. 4Science,Service F s a t w e ? WHY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. 33 June 19 4Science,Service F s a t w e ? WHY THE WEATHER ? Dr. Charles F. Brooks, Secretary calm time i n the l i f e of the Weather forecaster, y e t it is not without its t h r i l l, There a r e no general Storms, galeo* A p r i l showers have dried up; the cool fair weather of llay has

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  2. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  3. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  4. Computational Models for Understanding Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muraki, David J.

    Computational Models for Understanding Weather Mathematics for Atmospheric Science http://weather-S migration Dutton Conway zonal jetstream in unstable weather 6 #12;Baroclinic Instability Vortices

  5. Social Media: Space Weather #SpaceWeather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    causing blackouts in rare cases. To learn about space weather and impacts to the electric grid visit on the Power Grid Space Weather and the Aurora Borealis What are Solar Flares? What are Coronal Mass we do. Satellite communications, GPS applications, and the electric power grid provide the backbone

  6. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  7. Weatherization Assistance Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This fact sheet provides an overview of the U.S. Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program.

  8. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  9. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  10. Weather Data Gamification 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gargate, Rohit

    2013-07-25

    . With the huge amount of weather data available, we have designed and developed a fantasy weather game. People manage a team of cities with the goal of predicting weather better than other players in their league, and in the process gain an understanding...

  11. Paintball Summer Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sin, Peter

    Highlights · Paintball · Summer Weather · Birthdays · Manners TheELIWeekly Paintball! Come out Turkey United States Venezuela Summer Weather Safety We've come to realize in the past that not all of our students are aware of our unique weather problems in Central Florida. One hazard that you should

  12. WEATHER HAZARDS Basic Climatology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WEATHER HAZARDS Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral) Wildfires (Jun 02) Recent Declared Disasters in Colorado No Map from FEMA provided #12;National Weather and Warnings Outlook Indicates that hazardous weather may develop ­ useful to those who need considerable

  13. TESLA: Taylor Expanded Solar Analog Forecasting Bengu Ozge Akyurek, Alper Sinan Akyurek, Jan Kleissl and Tajana Simunic Rosing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simunic, Tajana

    , forecasting the weather accurately gained even more importance. Even now, a group of Smart Grid control Diego Email: {bakyurek,jkleissl}@ucsd.edu Electrical and Computer Engineering University of California- ergy resources within the Smart Grid, solar forecasting has become an important problem for hour

  14. Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    penalties for generation shortfall and surplus. The optimal bidding strategy depends on the statistics of the PV power generation and on the monetary penalties applied. We show how to tune the bidding strategy the risk associated with the intermittent nature of PV generation and maximize the expected profit

  15. Where do Weather Forecasts and Climate Predictions Come From?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, Charles W.

    on some aspect of the atmosphere. One sub-model is the solar flux model. Observations Prediction #12;3 The Solar Flux Model Public1.f Solar Flux Model The Public1.f Solar Flux Model is a Fortran program How do we get cloud properties from the spectrum BUT Cloud Observations #12;5 Inverting the Solar Flux

  16. Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables increase the penetration of environmentally-friendly renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind. For example, the Renewables Portfolio Standard targets up to 25% of energy generation from intermittent

  17. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-08-01

    This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models.

  18. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust, High-Throughput Analysis of Protein Structures Print ScientistsRodney Ellis About

  19. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  20. Impact of fair-weather cumulus clouds and the Chesapeake Bay breeze on pollutant transport and transformation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dickerson, Russell R.

    evolve in the atmosphere, to forecast air quality and climate impacts of pollutants, and to help evaluate air pollution and climate change mitigation plans. Fine scale weather structures, such as fairImpact of fair-weather cumulus clouds and the Chesapeake Bay breeze on pollutant transport

  1. Impact of fair-weather cumulus clouds and the Chesapeake Bay breeze on pollutant transport and transformation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Da-Lin

    to investigate how pollutants evolve in the atmosphere, to forecast air quality and climate impacts of pollutants, and to help evaluate air pollution and climate change mitigation plans. Fine scale weather structuresImpact of fair-weather cumulus clouds and the Chesapeake Bay breeze on pollutant transport

  2. Is Weather Chaotic?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ales Raidl

    1998-10-13

    The correlation dimension and K2-entropy are estimated from meteorological time- series. The results lead us to claim that seasonal variability of weather is under influence of low dimensional dynamics, whereas changes of weather from day to day are governed by high dimensional system(s). Error-doubling time of this system is less than 3 days. We suggest that the outstanding feature of the weather dynamics is deterministic chaos.

  3. Weather Charts - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Meteorological Station > Met and Climate Data Summary Products > Historical Weather Charts Hanford Meteorological Station Real Time Met Data from Around the Site Current HMS...

  4. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  5. Management of Weather and Climate Disputes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weiss, Edith Brown

    1983-01-01

    who may suffer harm from weather modification, efforts mustmitigating disputes over weather and cli- mate changes.Legal Implications of Weather Modification, in WEATHER

  6. Home Weatherization Visit

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Chu, Steven

    2013-05-29

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits of weatherization and how funding from the recovery act is having a direct impact in communities across America.

  7. Today's Space Weather Space Weather Case Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ], and grounding is difficult Hydro-Quebec's power grid is, within 90-sec of storm onset interference was thought to be due to Russian radio jamming ! GOES weather satellites, knocked out Power outage lasted 9-hours #12;What We Focus on Regarding This Storm: Power Grids

  8. Extended Abstract, 20th Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 16th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

    ) and of real radar data by Dowell et al. (2003). All three studies used the same anelastic cloud model of Sun

  9. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  10. Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berner, Judith; Batte, Lauriane; De La Camara, Alvaro; Crommelin, Daan; Christensen, Hannah; Colangeli, Matteo; Dolaptchiev, Stamen; Franzke, Christian L E; Friederichs, Petra; Imkeller, Peter; Jarvinen, Heikki; Juricke, Stephan; Kitsios, Vassili; Lott, Franois; Lucarini, Valerio; Mahajan, Salil; Palmer, Timothy N; Penland, Cecile; Von Storch, Jin-Song; Sakradzija, Mirjana; Weniger, Michael; Weisheimer, Antje; Williams, Paul D; Yano, Jun-Ichi

    2015-01-01

    The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal ensembles: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy and improve the quantification of forecast uncertainty. Developed initially for numerical weather prediction, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations not only provides more skillful estimates of uncertainty, but is also extremely promising for reducing longstanding climate biases and relevant for determining the climate response to forcings such as e.g., an increase of CO2. This article highlights recent results from different research groups which show that the stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models a) gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate and b) reduces systematic model bias. We make a case that the use of mathematically ...

  11. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  12. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  13. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  14. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  15. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  16. Neighborhood Weatherization, Houston 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowler, M.

    2011-01-01

    . Referrals http://www.click2houston.com/video/24501979/index.html 2010 CLEAResult. All rights reserved. Milestone Celebration 2010 CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 10,000 Homes Weatherized 2010 CLEAResult. All rights reserved. CATEE...

  17. Home Weatherization Visit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits...

  18. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Calore, Joe

    2013-05-29

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED ALGORITHMS TO DETECT, CHARACTERIZE AND FORECAST SOLAR ACTIVITIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . This is critical for determining the non-potentiality of active regions. Solar flares are generated by the sudden earth space environment (so called space weather). In this dissertation, an automated solar flare machine) to forecast the occurrences of solar flares based on photospheric magnetic features. Logistic

  20. Forecasting Spatiotemporal Impact of Traffic Incidents on Road Networks Bei Pan, Ugur Demiryurek, Cyrus Shahabi

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shahabi, Cyrus

    Forecasting Spatiotemporal Impact of Traffic Incidents on Road Networks Bei Pan, Ugur Demiryurek and quantifying the impact of traffic incidents. Traffic incidents include any non-recurring events on road networks, including accidents, weather hazard, road construction or work zone closures. By analyzing

  1. Sept. 18, 2012 Kahua A`o, A Learning Foundation Weather Maps and Hazardous Storms of Hawai`i Hurricane `Iniki making landfall over Kaua`i,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Businger, Steven

    geological forces can help forecast the locations and likelihoods of future events (ibid). Hawai`i Standard 8's surface. SC.ES.8.7 Describe climate and weather patterns associated with certain geographic locations how we choose to dress, to what activities we do, and the plants we choose to grow. Hawai`i's weather

  2. VALUE OF A WEATHER-READY NATION LAST REVISED 9/13/2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . The renewable energy industry is one such sector. Renewable energy firms use NOAA weather and climate forecasts of renewable energy. To meet the growing demand for information and to improve the timeliness and accuracy the agency, we have begun collecting data on the economic importance of the sectors we support, the costs

  3. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  4. Setups for Weathering Tests 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Unknown

    2011-08-17

    cotton. This Web-based decision support system, the Crop Weather Program for South Texas (CWP), is stationed out of the Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi. The program provides easy access to his- torical and current... weather data as well as cal- culators and other tools that generate useful field-specific information about the crop and its environment, said Dr. Carlos J. Fern?ndez, associate professor and the Plant Physiology and Cropping Systems Program?s leader...

  5. Intelligent weather agent for aircraft severe weather avoidance 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bokadia, Sangeeta

    2002-01-01

    Severe weather conditions pose a large threat to the safety of aircraft, since they are responsible for a large percentage of aviation related accidents. With the advent of the free flight environment, the exigency for an autonomous severe weather...

  6. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  7. Weather regime prediction using statistical learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deloncle, A.; Berk, Richard; D’Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.

    2005-01-01

    and B. Legras, 1995: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi10952. Molteni, F. , 2002: Weather regimes and multipleK. Ide, and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred

  8. Infiltration as Ventilation: Weather-Induced Dilution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sherman, Max H.

    2014-01-01

    LOGICS. 1999. Canadian Weather for Energy Calculations, In:natural ventilation rate with weather conditions, Renewablefor ASHRAE 136 [1/h] WSF Weather and Shielding Factor [1/h

  9. Weather Regime Prediction Using Statistical Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deloncle, A.; Berk, Richard A.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.

    2005-01-01

    and B. Legras, 1995: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi10952. Molteni, F. , 2002: Weather regimes and multipleK. Ide, and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred

  10. Weather Regime Prediction Using Statistical Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Deloncle; R. Berk; F. D'Andrea; M. Ghil

    2011-01-01

    and B. Legras, 1995: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi10952. Molteni, F. , 2002: Weather regimes and multipleK. Ide, and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred

  11. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  12. ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

    2009-01-15

    During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher resolution real-time model simulations possible, the need to obtain observations to both initialize numerical models and verify their output has become increasingly important. The assimilation of high resolution radar observations therefore provides a vital component in the development and utility of numerical model forecasts for both weather forecasting and contaminant transport, including future opportunities to improve wet deposition computations explicitly.

  13. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  14. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  15. THE WEATHER VISUALIZER, JAVATM , HABANEROTM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wilhelmson, Robert

    13.19 THE WEATHER VISUALIZER, JAVATM , HABANEROTM , AND THE FUTURE Joel Plutchak* , Robert B Urbana-Champaign has developed a web-based visualization tool known as The Weather Visualizer (DAS, 1997 and images.__ Since its debut in 1995, the goals of the various versions of the Weather Visualizer have

  16. Summer Weather TheELIWeekly

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sin, Peter

    Highlights · Midterms · Summer Weather · Manners · Grammar TheELIWeekly Midterms Good luck on your will be closed for the Independence Day Holiday. th th Summer Weather Safety We've come to realize in the past that not all of our students are aware of our unique weather problems in Central Florida. One hazard that you

  17. Useful Weather Links Nolan Doesken

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    Useful Weather Links Nolan Doesken Odie Bliss Colorado Climate Center Presented at ProfessionalAgMet (Colorado Agricultural Meteorological Network) · http://www.coagmet.com Weather data for agriculture #12://www.hprcc.unl.edu/index.php #12;BLM / Forest Service Remote Automated Weather Stations ­ RAWS · http://www.fs.fed.us/raws/ #12

  18. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  19. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  20. Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation on Tornadoes and Severe Weather A Community Report March;WeatherReady Nation: A Vital Conversation on Tornadoes and Severe Weather Report from the December 2011

  1. Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation As a WIPP agency, reporting...

  2. Weatherize | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative Fuels Data CenterFinancialInvestingRenewableTeachDevelopmentWaterAt-A-GlanceWeatherize

  3. The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

    2003-11-21

    To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

  4. ARM - Instrument - ecmwf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Comments? WeDatastreamstpsgovInstrumentsclap Documentation ARM Data DiscoverygovInstrumentsdl Documentation

  5. ARM - Campaign Instrument - ecmwf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.TheoryTuesday,air Comments? We would love to heargovInstrumentsdmagovInstrumentsecmwf

  6. A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height ADAM J. DEPPE AND WILLIAM A. GALLUS JR.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    University, Ames, Iowa (Manuscript received 2 October 2011, in final form 15 May 2013) ABSTRACT The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements.S. Department of Energy goal of having 20% of the nation's electrical energy from wind by 2030 will require

  7. A Framework of Short-Term Activity-Aware Load Forecasting Yong Ding, Martin Neumann and Michael Beigl

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Beigl, Michael

    the best use of electric energy and relieve the conflict between supply and demand [Niu et al., 2010]. However, inaccurate load forecasts will lead to not only monetary losses but also grid security losses), such as weather factors, climatic conditions, social activi- ties, and seasonal factors, past usage patterns

  8. (1) THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) References

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Froude, Lizzie

    Weather Review, submitted. Hodges, K. I., 1995: Feature tracking on the unit-sphere. Monthly Weather (UK) CPTEC (Brazil) ECMWF Analysis 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Forecast Lead Time (days) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1) JMA (Japan) KMA (Korea) NCEP (USA) UKMO (UK) CPTEC (Brazil) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Forecast Lead Time (days) -5

  9. Winter Weather Outlook

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubictheThe U.S. Department ofWinners0 Winter Weather

  10. Winter Weather Outlook

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubictheThe U.S. Department ofWinners0 Winter Weather1

  11. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  12. Bishop Paiute Weatherization Training Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlos Hernandez

    2010-01-28

    The DOE Weatherization Training Grant assisted Native American trainees in developing weatherization competencies, creating employment opportunities for Bishop Paiute tribal members in a growing field. The trainees completed all the necessary training and certification requirements and delivered high-quality weatherization services on the Bishop Paiute Reservation. Six tribal members received all three certifications for weatherization; four of the trainees are currently employed. The public benefit includes (1) development of marketable skills by low-income Native individuals, (2) employment for low-income Native individuals in a growing industry, and (3) economic development opportunities that were previously not available to these individuals or the Tribe.

  13. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  14. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  15. Reducing Extreme Weather Impacts: Building a Weather-Ready Nation For more than 140 years, the National Weather Service (NWS) has provided weather, water, and climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reducing Extreme Weather Impacts: Building a Weather-Ready Nation For more than 140 years, the National Weather Service (NWS) has provided weather, water, and climate information to protect lives also been a year of extreme weather events. The impact of these events, both on lives and the economy

  16. QUANTIFICATION OF WEATHERING Robert Hack

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hack, Robert

    : Weathering and especially future weathering after construction of a slope is a main cause for failure Proc. Engineering geology and the environment. Athens. Eds. Marinos et al.. 1997. Publ. Balkema 40 60 80 H slate medium H slate v.thin H slate tick lam. Tg21 thick Tg21 medium Tg21 thin Tg21 v

  17. Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Michalek; N. Gopalswamy; S. Yashiro

    2007-10-24

    Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\\it Solar Phys.}, {\\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.

  18. TMY2 Weather Data | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    TMY2 Weather Data TMY2 Weather Data TMY2 weather data that were used to generate the reference buildings refbldgs-v1.35.0-weatherfilestmy2.zip More Documents & Publications TMY2...

  19. Cointegration of the Daily Electric Power System Load and the Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stefanov, Stefan Z

    2007-01-01

    The paper examines the cointegration of the daily electric power system load and the weather by a field intelligent system. The daily load has been modelled by dynamic regressions. A "Daily Artificial Dispather" thermal intelligent system has been costructed. Time and energy tests have been obtained for this intelligent system. The improvement in the daily load forecast, achieved by this intelligent system, has been obtained. The predicted daily electricity price has been found.

  20. Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) U.S. Department of...

  1. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations ...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call...

  2. WEATHER MODIFICATION BY AIRCRAFT CLOUD SEEDING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vali, Gabor

    WEATHER MODIFICATION BY AIRCRAFT CLOUD SEEDING BERYULEV G.P. Head, Department of Cloud Physics and Weather Modification Central Aerological Observatory Rosgidromet, Russian Federation #12

  3. New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption |...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption August 21, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis The New York State Homes and...

  4. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Non-U.S Citizens Mentors, Projects Papers, Reports Photos NSEC IGPPS Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School June 1 - July 24, 2015 Contacts...

  5. Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts June 18, 2014 - 10:49am...

  6. Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

    2004-05-06

    To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes, in particular, should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provided that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by a realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be tested in the same framework. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the U.S. Department of Energy is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM.

  7. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  8. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  9. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  10. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  11. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  12. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  13. WeatherMaker: Weather file conversion and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balcomb, J.D.

    1999-07-01

    WeatherMaker is a weather-data utility for use with the ENERGY-10 design-tool computer program. The three main features are: Convert--Weather files can be converted from one format to another. For example, a TMY2 format file can be converted to an ENERGY-10 binary file that can be used in a simulation. This binary file can then be converted to a text format that allows it to be read and/or manipulated in WordPad or Excel. Evaluate--ENERGY-10 weather files can be studied in great detail. There are 8 graphical displays of the data that provide insight into the data, and a summary tables that presents results calculated from the hourly data. Adjust--Hourly temperature data can be adjusted starting with hourly data from a nearby TMY2 site. Dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures are adjusted up or down as required to match given monthly statistics. This feature can be used to generate weather files for any of 3,958 sites in the US where such monthly statistics are tabulated. The paper shows a variety of results, explains the methods used, and discusses the rationale for making the adjustments. It is anticipated that WeatherMaker will be released by the time of the ASES Solar 99 conference.

  14. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  15. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  16. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  17. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  18. Optimality of 4D-Var and its relationship with the Kalman lter and Kalman smoother

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ;xed-lag Kalman smoother may also be constructed in an optimal way using a multiple batch-processing 4D Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) (Parrish and Derber 1992; Derber et al. 1991), and then in 1996 at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (Courtier et al. 1998), as well as in 1998

  19. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1285512869, 2014 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/12855/2014/

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meskhidze, Nicholas

    . Urban1,, H. Sagawa2, and Y. Kasai2 1Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Chalmers University is an off-line wind-driven trans- port model on isentropic surfaces. Wind data from the oper- ational analyses of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used to drive the model

  20. Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Breivik, Øyvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

  1. Weather vs. Climate What is the difference between

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Cari

    Consul7ng #12;Weather Consul6ng Using Climate Data · A weather consultant helps people or businesses make decisions based on knowledge of weather or climateWeather vs. Climate #12;What is the difference between weather and climate

  2. Low-Income Weatherization: The Human Dimension

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation focuses on how the human dimension saves energy within low-income weatherization programs.

  3. Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Read about one weatherization training center that's looking forward to an onslaught of new trainees.

  4. Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Colorado5 December 20126 (submitted to Monthly Weather Review)7 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt AFB, NE, 68113

  5. Weather In History Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 179 Weather In History Fall 2012 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RBH 236C Phone : 232 Description Weather in History is not an examination of significant weather events per se, but an analysis of how world historical events and trajectories were altered by weather and climate. We will weave

  6. The Voice of NOAA's National Weather Service

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Voice of NOAA's National Weather Service Broadcasting Continuous Weather Information on the Following Frequencies: 162.400 MHz 162.425 MHz 162.450 MHz 162.475 MHz 162 Administration National Weather Service http://www.weather.gov/nwr/ NOAA/PA 94062 Rev January 2015 #12;NOAA

  7. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) success stories, news clips, and press releases.

  8. An Assessment of Areal Coverage of Severe Weather Parameters for Severe Weather Outbreak Diagnosis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    An Assessment of Areal Coverage of Severe Weather Parameters for Severe Weather Outbreak Diagnosis 2011, in final form 9 March 2012) ABSTRACT The areal extent of severe weather parameters favorable for significant severe weather is evaluated as a means of identifying major severe weather outbreaks. The first

  9. Space based observations for monitoring extreme weather and climate events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rao, P.K.

    1996-12-31

    Observations are essential for monitoring, understanding, and predicting the potential for extreme weather and climate events. These events occur on all time and spatial scales. Current NOAA operational satellites have a unique capability of providing many of the observations that are critical for monitoring these events. These observations and derived geophysical quantities can also be used for diagnostics and prediction purposes. Extreme weather conditions such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods, occur very quickly, may last for a short time, and create a considerable amount of damage. Advance warnings of the order of a few minutes are needed to alert the public so they may take adequate precautions. Some extreme weather conditions such as tropical storms (hurricanes) may last for days, and in order to predict the exact track, intensity of the storm and forecast the land fall, frequent observations are critical. Examples of satellite data that are obtained from the NOAA satellites are presented to demonstrate their ability to monitor the extreme weather phenomena. Examples of extreme climate conditions are droughts over continents and the annual depletion of ozone over the Antarctic. Data derived from NOAA satellites were used to monitor the severe drought over Texas and Southwestern U.S.A. in early 1996. Similar data are being used by other countries to monitor the drought in their regions. The development of the ozone hole over the Antarctic during the last fifteen years has been a major scientific and environmental concern. Data from NOAA operational satellites have been extensively used to show the yearly development and dissipation of the ozone hole during the Southern Hemisphere springtime.

  10. Forecast of Regional Power Output of Wind Turbines Hans Georg Beyer, Detlev Heinemann, Harald Mellinghoff, Kai Monnich, Hans-Peter Waldl

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    of wind turbines connected to the public electricity grid will be intro- duced. Using this procedure of the german weather service DWD. For wind power forecast, these predictions have to be spatially refined of the minimal load of the corresponding utility (approx. 30 % of max. load). The feed in of electricity by wind

  11. Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1, W. Crow2, J. Schaake3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pan, Ming

    Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, US Department of Agriculture 3 National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1. Introduction This study focuses on evaluation of hydrologic remote sensing

  12. Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Carolus J; Aylward, Alan D; Denardini, Clezio M; Gibson, Sarah E; Glover, Alexi; Gopalswamy, Nat; Grande, Manuel; Hapgood, Mike; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jakowski, Norbert; Kalegaev, Vladimir V; Lapenta, Giovanni; Linker, Jon A; Liu, Siqing; Mandrini, Cristina H; Mann, Ian R; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Nandi, Dibyendu; Obara, Takahiro; O'Brien, T Paul; Onsager, Terrance; Opgenoorth, Hermann J; Terkildsen, Michael; Valladares, Cesar E; Vilmer, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustaine...

  13. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  14. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  15. 2008 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Market Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doris, E.; Taylor, R.

    2009-07-01

    The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) integrates local needs and interests in order to promote markets for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE). Its activities are integrative across disparate technologies and market boundaries. In order to analyze the historical performance and forward-looking potential of this broad program, this report assesses market developments and outlooks at the following aggregated levels: states, cities and communities, Indian tribes, and low-income residential efficiency. The analytical goals of the report are to: identify market drivers for EE and RE, paying attention to subsidies, taxes, targets and mandates, environmental policy, energy security, and economic development; assess efficacy of existing policies; discuss challenges and barriers; evaluate high-impact measures for overcoming challenges and barriers; and forecast future market trends.

  16. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore »forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  17. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deremble, Bruno [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France); D'Andrea, Fabio [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France); Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United Staes). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Geophysics and Planetary Physics

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

  18. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Deremble, Bruno [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France); D'Andrea, Fabio [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France); Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United Staes). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Geophysics and Planetary Physics

    2009-01-01

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

  19. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvén waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  20. Weatherize Your Home--Caulk and Weather Strip: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearinghouse (EREC) Brochure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, S.

    2001-04-17

    This fact sheet explains the basics of caulking and weather stripping, and provides a comparison of the types of products available for these two weatherization techniques.

  1. Building a Weather-Ready Nation Winter Weather Safety

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    or ice can shut down a city and leave you trapped at home for days. · Driving on ice and snow. · Have emergency supplies in case you can't leave home for several days. weather.gov/winter www sure your trees are trimmed and away from power lines. · Have an emergency kit in case the power goes

  2. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  3. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (2004) 14911497 Sun-to-magnetosphere modeling: CISM forecast model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2004-01-01

    -to-magnetosphere modeling: CISM forecast model development using linked empirical methods D.N. Bakera,Ã, R.S. Weigela , E Space Weather Modeling (CISM) is to provide linked end-to- end models of the connected Sun­Earth system. It is envisioned that the ultimate product of the CISM effort will be a single, physics-based (i.e., ``forward

  4. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  5. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  6. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  7. A multi-period equilibrium pricing model of weather derivatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2010-01-01

    Y. : Valuation and hedging of weather derivatives on monthlyJ. Risk 31. Yoo, S. : Weather derivatives and seasonaleffects and valuation of weather derivatives. Financ. Rev.

  8. A Multi-period Equilibrium Pricing Model of Weather Derivatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2008-01-01

    2002). On modelling and pricing weather derivatives. Applied2003). Arbitrage-fee pricing of weather derivatives based onfects and valuation of weather derivatives. The Financial

  9. Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials More Documents & Publications The...

  10. Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials More Documents & Publications...

  11. Identification of High Collision Concentration Locations Under Wet Weather Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Taesung; Chung, Koohong; Ragland, David; Chan, Chin-Yao

    2008-01-01

    conducted under wet weather conditions. Observations fromLeahy, M. , and Suggett, J. Weather as a Chronic Hazard forLocations Under Wet Weather Conditions Taesung Hwang,

  12. Essays on Weather Indexed Insurance and Energy Use in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuchs, Alan

    2011-01-01

    and O. Mahul, 2007. “Weather Index Insurance for Agricultureand J. Vickery, 2005. “Weather Insurance in Semi-AridBinswanger, 1993. “Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition

  13. OpenWeather: a peer-to-peer weather data transmission protocol

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yanes, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    The study of the weather is performed using instruments termed weather stations. These weather stations are distributed around the world, collecting the data from the different phenomena. Several weather organizations have been deploying thousands of these instruments, creating big networks to collect weather data. These instruments are collecting the weather data and delivering it for later processing in the collections points. Nevertheless, all the methodologies used to transmit the weather data are based in protocols non adapted for this purpose. Thus, the weather stations are limited by the data formats and protocols used in them, not taking advantage of the real-time data available on them. We research the weather instruments, their technology and their network capabilities, in order to provide a solution for the mentioned problem. OpenWeather is the protocol proposed to provide a more optimum and reliable way to transmit the weather data. We evaluate the environmental factors, such as location or bandwi...

  14. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  15. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  16. The northern wintertime divergence extrema at 200 hPa and surface cyclones as simulated in the AMIP integration of the ECMWF general circulation model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boyle, J.S.

    1994-11-01

    Divergence and convergence centers at 200 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) cyclones were located every 6 hr for a 10-yr general circulation model (GCM) simulation with the ECMWF (Cycle 36) for the boreal winters from 1980 to 1988. The simulation used the observed monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade. Analysis of the frequency, location, and strength of these centers and cyclones gives insight into the dynamical response of the model to the varying SST. The results indicate that (1) the model produces reasonable climatologies of upper-level divergence and MSLP cyclones; (2) the model distribution of anomalies of divergence and convergence centers and MSLP cyclones is consistent with observations for the 1982-83 and 1986-87 El Nifio events; (3) the tropical Indian Ocean is the region of greatest divergence activity and interannual variability in the model; (4) the variability of the divergence centers is greater than that of the convergence centers; (5) strong divergence centers occur chiefly over the ocean in the midlatitudes but are more land-based in the tropics, except in the Indian Ocean; and (6) locations of divergence and convergence centers can be a useful tool for the intercomparison of global atmospheric simulations.

  17. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  18. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-00000309 dealing with the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program.

  19. More Weatherized Homes for Minnesota Tribe

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization crews across Minnesota are busy replacing old furnaces, sealing air leaks, and weathering stripped doors for people who are at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty line, with priority given to households with elderly or disabled people.

  20. & Scierce Service Feat-? \\WY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. 39 June 26 & Scierce Service Feat- ? \\WY THE WEATHER ? Dr. Charles F.Brooks, Secretary, American Meteorological Society quotes: TRUTHFUL VEATHEFZ DOGGzEREL Of the hundreds of weather proverbs

  1. Science Service Featura ? WRY THE WEATHER 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. 426 Sept, 22 Science Service Featura ? WRY THE WEATHER 1 By Dr, Charles F. Brooks of Clzrk of weather data, that there is any particular virtue i n the date of the equinox. does occur at that time

  2. Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Majda, Andrew J.

    Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Institute of Mathematical Sciences5 New York University6 New York, NY7 Submitted to Monthly Weather Review8

  3. A Science Service Featturq ? .> WHY ?HE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No* 15 29 A Science Service Featturq ? .> WHY ?HE WEATHER ? Dr. Charles F. Brooks, Secretary in the weather, It may bo defined the line of contact where cold wind strikes R warm wind, the line usually ad

  4. A Science Service Feature WHY THE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Science Service Feature WHY THE WEATHER -__c T -- By Dr. Charles F. Brooks of Clark University States, .during which spell of dry weather teqeratures f e l l at no tiire more than a few degrees below

  5. Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author to Monthly Weather Review25 Revised 16 May 201426 Manuscript (non-LaTeX) Click here to download Manuscript

  6. -A Scienqe Service Feature ? WHY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No- 362 July 9 -A Scienqe Service Feature ? WHY THE WEATHER ? Dr, Charles F, Brooks of Cl? Sir Frederic Stupart of Canada has made a study of pressure and weather conditions on days on which

  7. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  8. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  9. Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

  10. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  11. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  12. New Hampshire Weatherization Gets a Funding Boost

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Nonprofit weatherization program makes rapid changes to utilize Recovery Act funds and help residents lower energy costs.

  13. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) SERC Photovoltaics for Residential Buildings Webinar Transcript...

  14. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  15. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  16. ENERGY, WEATHER AND Walker Institute Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hodges, Kevin

    ENERGY, WEATHER AND CLIMATE Walker Institute Research Climate scientists and engineers are working together to understand the impacts of weather and climate on energy systems. WEATHER, CLIMATE AND ENERGY new risks to the energy sector. With the increasing deployment of variable, renewable energy

  17. -A Scienq Service Feature \\VHY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. 408 Sept, 1 -A Scienq Service Feature \\VHY THE WEATHER ? By Dr, Charles E'. Brooks of Clark University. HOT RAILRDAD TRAINS Especially i n warm weather the railroad train i s likely to lose passengers Weather) I All rights reserved by Science Service Science Service, B and 21st Sts,, Washington, D .C #12;

  18. Weather Report Translation using a Translation Memory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langlais, Philippe

    Weather Report Translation using a Translation Memory Thomas Leplus, Philippe Langlais and Guy to French weather report translation system. This system, which has been in operation for more than 20 years approach based on the analysis of hundreds of thousands of weather reports. We show that it is possible

  19. Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author and have been linked to severe weather and flooding in northern Mexico and the southwest United States 2001; Douglas and Leal 2003; Gochis et al. 2004; Higgins et al. 2004) and severe weather outbreaks

  20. Science Service Feature' ? WHy THE WEATHER P

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Science Service Feature' ? WHy THE WEATHER P By nr, 'Charles F, Brooks of Clark University or 300 miles i n width. The speed with which the Weather Clears, A fI10w" or storm area malY Vary Since s as ---------- (Tomorrow: Honey ':Weather A l l rights reserved by Science Service SCIENCE SERVICE , B and 21st Sts

  1. Daily Weather Laboratory II Spring Semester 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van den Heever, Susan C.

    AT541 Daily Weather Laboratory II Spring Semester 2010 Meeting Times: Tuesday and Thursday: 1, dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of mesoscale weather phenomena. Aspects of synoptic- scale contest will also be held, separated by the mid-term exam. In-class weather briefings will be given

  2. A Sciexice Service Feature ? \\THY "HE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No. $84 Jan. 26 A Sciexice Service Feature ? \\THY "HE WEATHER ? By Dr. Charles F, Brooks of Clark walk more briskly; every preparation i s made for a spell Of hard cold weather .I' If i t is raining are turned up; hands are put into When a cold wave is expected, some Weather Bureau stations display a square

  3. Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinselman, Pamela L.

    Monthly Weather Review EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author its first bow echo was captured by9 the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased Array Radar (NWRT PAR weather events, such as quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). Trapp et al.29 (2005) found that 18

  4. -A Science Service Feature 7 BHYTRZ WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -A Science Service Feature 7 BHYTRZ WEATHER ? Dr. Charles F. Brooks, of Clark University, t e l l s of SEVERE EARLY WINTER WEATHER In marked contrast t o the mildness of November and December i n eastern, western and southern Europe were experiencing even stormier weather than our Southwest. lanches

  5. WEATHER, p. 2 MIT's Oldest and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WEATHER, p. 2 SECTIONS MIT's Oldest and Largest Newspaper tech.mit.edu Established 1881 Volume 135, Number 2 Friday, February 6, 2015 Opinion . . . . . . . . .4 Fun Pages . . . . . . .5 Weather, until it isn't. FUN, p. 5 IT'S NOT QUITE OVER YET I'm dreaming of a white Valentine's. WEATHER, p. 8

  6. service Feature 7 VHY THE WEATHER 7

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    No, 445 Oct. 14 service Feature 7 VHY THE WEATHER 7 By Dr, Charles F. Brooks of C l a r k, without reaching the ground, Therefore, the sur- face weather is calm and quiet, though clouds may, usually c d l e d Indian Surmer ;vhen it lasts for a few days togethar. The q u i e t weather of October

  7. Predicting weather-related emergency blackspots

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Predicting weather-related emergency blackspots The STFC Hartree Centre's high-calibre data types of emergency occurring in specific places under specific weather conditions. Focusing initially on Hampshire, this solution ­ known as WUDoWUD (Weather You Do or Whether You Don't) ­ has clear potential

  8. -A Science &Feature ? TRY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -A Science &Feature ? TRY THE WEATHER ? By Dr. Charles F. Brook8 of Clark University. Dl mountains both i n quiet weather and i n windy is coolad t o temperatures lower than those elsewhere, density and movoments of such clouds t e l l much as t o the trend of the weather, mountains where

  9. Service Assessment Intense Space Weather Storms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Service Assessment Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 ­ November 07, 2003 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland image. #12;Service Assessment Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 ­ November 07, 2003 April 2004 U

  10. -A --Science --Service Feature ? WHY THE WEATHER ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    I\\?O.564 March 2 -A --Science --Service Feature ? WHY THE WEATHER ? By Dr. Charles F. Brooks address over the radio, the weather of Inauguration my becores less a matter of concern, But those who intend t o be i n Washington for the ceremonies may le interested i n some weather Probabilities

  11. Summer Weather Safety Midterm Student Reports

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sin, Peter

    Highlights Summer Weather Safety Midterm Student Reports Midterm Course Evaluations Notes from the Office Notes from the Office Manners, Culture & Grammar TheELIWeekly Summer Weather Safety Be safe. If you take a study break, go out and enjoy the weather. But be careful since North Central Florida has

  12. Understanding space weather to shield society

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Understanding space weather to shield society An international, interdisciplinary roadmap to advance the scientific understanding of the Sun-Earth connections leading to space weather, on behalf observatory along with models and innovative approaches to data incorporation;! b) Understand space weather

  13. University of Arkansas Libraries Inclement Weather Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Capogna, Luca

    University of Arkansas Libraries Inclement Weather Policy Decision Process for Closing the Libraries The general University policy regarding inclement weather is that the University must continue certain operations despite bad weather, but that the obligation to provide services to students must

  14. SPACE WEATHER RISKS FROM AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    SPACE WEATHER RISKS FROM AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE 26.04.2011 Jan Eichner ­ Geo Risks Research #12, including geophysical hazards, weather-related hazards and potential consequences of climate change weather). · Linking geo-scientific research with business expertise in risk assessment, risk modeling

  15. Causal Electron Precipitation in Geospace Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lotko, William

    607080 18 Causal Electron Precipitation in Geospace Weather A Proposal submitted by Dartmouth;NSF: National Space Causal Electron Precipitation in Geospace Weather: W. Lotko, PI Weather Program and global characteristics of electron precipitation influence the magnetosphere-iono- sphere (MI

  16. Building a Weather-Ready Nation noaa.gov/wrn Weather-Ready Nation &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Building a Weather-Ready Nation noaa.gov/wrn Welcome Weather-Ready Nation & America's PrepareAthon! Webinar April 1, 2015 "Whole Community Approach to Building National Resilience " #12;Building a Weather-Ready Nation A word from... noaa.gov/wrn Dr. Kathryn Sullivan NOAA Administrator #12;Building a Weather

  17. 480 MONTHLY WEATHER .REVIEW. WEATHER IN CINCINNATI, OHIO, FOR 130 YEARS.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maynard, J. Barry

    480 MONTHLY WEATHER .REVIEW. WEATHER IN CINCINNATI, OHIO, FOR 130 YEARS. By W.C. DEVEREAUX,Meteorologiat. [Dated Weather Biaeau, Cincinnati, Ohio.] JDLT. 1919 The h t permanent settlement in the State of Ohio- vations on the weather, the earthquakes, the aurora borealis and the southwest wind." The daily

  18. Space weather impacts Thank you for taking this anonymous survey on the impacts of space weather.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Space weather impacts Thank you for taking this anonymous survey on the impacts of space weather) that apply to the general information regarding your institution and your interest in space weather. Please that focus on three different aspects of space weather. The questions that you will see in this part

  19. Figure 1. Example Current Weather Product INTEGRATING REAL-TIME WEATHER INTO AN INTERNET LEARNING ENVIRONMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wilhelmson, Robert

    Figure 1. Example Current Weather Product INTEGRATING REAL-TIME WEATHER INTO AN INTERNET LEARNING ENVIRONMENT: WW2010 CURRENT WEATHER PRODUCTS Daniel J. Bramer, David P. Wojtowicz, Joel Plutchak, Robert B ­ is that accurate, useful, and if possible, real-life examples of weather phenomena are necessary to best enhance

  20. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  1. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  2. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  3. MINOR IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE (1913F) NAME___________________________________ ID# _______________________________

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

    MINOR IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE (1913F) NAME___________________________________ ID _______________ DATE_____________________________ A MINOR IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE REQUIRES A MINIMUM OF 15 HOURS IS REQUIRED. A MINOR IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE REQUIRES: A MINIMUM OF SIX HOURS FROM: METR 1014 WEATHER

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  5. WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentati...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentation WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentation This presentation contains...

  6. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act.

  7. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    to adhere to the maximum crosswind limitation). When winds19 pair, due to aircraft crosswind limitations, then both

  8. Real-time Storm Detection and Weather Forecast Activation through Data Mining and Events Processing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    in the physical environment driven by the use cases in mesoscale meteorology. The contribution of the research

  9. TechNoteswww.ll.mit.edu July 2014 Weather forecasts are critical to effectively

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herr, Hugh

    contains the radiometer installed at the top and the CubeSat bus whose solar panels open out once in orbit a host satellite, it will fly with its solar panels opened out like petals of a flower. These panels Micro-sizedMicrowaveAtmosphericSatellite A miniature satellite may be the innovative solution

  10. The widely used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model provides a few land surface schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    is com- puted from the surface energy balance using a force- restore algorithm for heat exchange within linearised surface energy balance equation representing the combined ground-vegetation sur- face. Soil (USA) and widely used in the World meteorolo- gical and air quality communities. WRF provides a choice

  11. Space Weather Forecasting Identifying periodic block-structured models to predict

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    lines, which can overwhelm and destroy transform- ers and electrical networks [2]. Figure 7 shows damage in the ionosphere. To predict these large ejections of magnetic and plasma energy, satellites monitor the solar past the Earth and the other planets in the form of the solar wind. The Sun's magnetic field, which

  12. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    of variability for solar power plants.   While  NWP model operation of solar thermal power  plants, the management of 

  13. Use of Weather and Occupancy Forecasts for Optimal Building Climate Control

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    and ventilation (including TABS and floor heating subsystem variants) In preparation: 2. Cooling by nightControl "Applications" 1. Integrated Room Automation (IRA) Integrated automation of light, blind, heating, cooling ·Electric lighting ·Heating: radiators ·Cooling: slow ceiling ­ mechanical chiller ­ free cooling with wet

  14. Preprints, 22 nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18 th

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    and real observations (Hacker and Snyder 2005; Hacker and Rostkier-Edelstrein 2007). Simulated surface

  15. Thunderstorm lightning and radar characteristics: insights on electrification and severe weather forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steiger, Scott Michael

    2007-04-25

    Total lightning mapping, along with radar and NLDN cloud-to-ground lightning data, can be used to diagnose the severity of a storm. Analysis of the 13 October 2001 supercell event (Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas), some supercells ...

  16. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Downward surface solar radiation  data released at 12 UTC solar radiation:   A statistical approach using satellite data.   

  17. PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsourceII JumpQuarterly Smart GridNorth Carolina: Energy ResourcesLLC JumpMILAGRO

  18. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentric viewingValidating extended MHDCERES/SARB DataSlope of

  19. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  20. System implementation for US Air Force Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simunich, K.L.; Pinkerton, S.C.; Michalakes, J.G.; Christiansen, J.H.

    1997-03-01

    The Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) is intended to provide war fighters and decision makers with timely, accurate, and tailored meteorological and oceanographic (METOC) information to enhance effective employment of battlefield forces. Of critical importance to providing METOC theater information is the generation of meteorological parameters produced by numerical prediction models and application software at the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC), Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska. Ultimately, application-derived data will be produced by the regional Joint METOC Forecast Units and by the deployed teams within a theater. The USAF Air Staff contracted with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for assistance in defining a hardware and software solution using off-the-shelf technology that would give the USAF the flexibility of testing various meteorological models and the ability to use the system within their daily operational constraints.

  1. Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program network. Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mihlmester, P.E.; Koehler, W.C. Jr.; Beyer, M.A.; Brown, M.A.; Beschen, D.A. Jr.

    1992-02-01

    The Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network was designed to describe the national network of State and local agencies that provide WAP services to qualifying low-income households. The objective of this study was to profile the current WAP network. To achieve the objective, two national surveys were conducted: one survey collected data from 49 State WAP agencies (including the coterminous 48 States and the District of Columbia), and the second survey collected data from 920 (or 81 percent) of the local WAP agencies.

  2. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  3. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  4. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  6. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  7. Weather | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-Inspired SolarAbout /Two0Photos and Videos/01/2012 Page| NationalWeather

  8. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G.; MacDonald, M.

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  9. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  10. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  11. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  17. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  18. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  19. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  20. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  1. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  2. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The presentation will review known variability in extreme weather such as excessive heat, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Projections and uncertainties...

  3. Working With Weatherization Assistance Programs | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Assistance Programs Working With Weatherization Assistance Programs Better Buildings Low Income Peer Exchange Call Featuring: Case study on integration of income-qualified...

  4. Maine Company Growing with Weatherization Work

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Maine's BIOSAFE Environmental Services expands into weatherization, assisting low-income families with their services and creating jobs as business grows.

  5. Training Program Graduates Weatherization-Ready Workers

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Graduates of Human Capital Development Corporation's (HCDC) First Choice Program aren't just trained in areas of construction, they also can tackle home weatherization services.

  6. Weatherization Assistance Available at Florida Pie Shop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Pie in the Sky, a seemingly simple store that offers customers fresh-baked desserts, is providing a second treat: weatherization.

  7. Frosty Conditions Catalyze Weatherization Solutions: Maine Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Maine demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  8. Weatherization Grows in the Green Mountain State (Vermont): Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Vermont demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  9. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  10. Namur, Belgium -weathering deteriorating slope stability future -Robert Hack 1 WEATHERING DETERIORATING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hack, Robert

    Namur, Belgium - weathering deteriorating slope stability future - Robert Hack 1 WEATHERING DETERIORATING AND SLOPE STABILITY CLASSIFICATION FOR THE FUTURE Namur, Belgium, 12 June 2008 Robert Hack Geo #12;Namur, Belgium - weathering deteriorating slope stability future - Robert Hack 2 Jan van Goyen

  11. Early View (EV): 1-EV Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events, not climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turner, Monica G.

    distribution using temporally matched observations of the species with weather data (includ- ing extremeEarly View (EV): 1-EV Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events, not climate means applications of species distribution models (SDM) are typically static, in that they are based on correlations

  12. nown as the "Voice of NOAA's National Weather Service," NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) is

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and emergency information. Saving lives is the focus of NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards by providing round that could save your life and those in your family. Make NOAA Weather Radio an essential item for every home and businesses to help protect lives and property from natural and technological hazards. NOAA Weather Radio

  13. HMS Inclement Weather Policy FACULTY, STAFF AND STUDENTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mootha, Vamsi K.

    HMS Inclement Weather Policy FACULTY, STAFF AND STUDENTS During a weather emergency or other inclement weather is that, short of a declared state of emergency, the School remains open. The teaching and research activities of HMS continue despite inclement weather. In such weather emergencies, however

  14. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  15. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  16. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  17. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  18. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  19. ADAPTIVE GRIDS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODELING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jablonowski, Christiane

    ADAPTIVE GRIDS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODELING by Christiane Jablonowski A dissertation submitted adaptive grid library that he wrote for his Ph.D. thesis in the Electrical Engineering and Computer Science as a postdoctoral researcher. In addition, thanks to Detlev Majewski from the German Weather Service DWD

  20. Integrating weather derivatives for managing risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bilski, B. [WeatherWise USA LLC, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1999-11-01

    As deregulation and customer choice loom on the horizon, many energy utilities and other energy suppliers are scrambling to find new services that add value for consumers. Many are also seeking opportunities for increasing efficiency to ensure that costs remain competitive. Integrating weather derivatives with marketing programs and financial management can produce attractive new services and increase efficiency. Weather derivatives can be used to create innovative consumer services, such as a guaranteed annual energy bill which is unaffected by weather and energy price changes. They can also be used to protect the earnings of energy suppliers from one of their most significant financial risks, unpredictable weather. There are three basic types of weather derivatives available today. Option or insurance based derivatives (options), swaps or hedge based derivatives (swaps) and packages where other services are combined with one or both of the above.

  1. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  2. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  3. NREL RSF Weather Data 2011 - Datasets - OpenEI Datasets

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    RSF Weather Data 2011 A csv containing hourly weather data at NREL's Research and Support Facility (RSF) for 2011. Data and Resources NREL RSF Weather Data 2011CSV Preview Download...

  4. Physiological responses of a black spruce forest to weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1997-01-01

    a black spruce forest to weather Michael L. Goulden, • Bruceresponses of the forest to weather. The annual rates ofgross forest CO 2 exchange to weather is required before the

  5. STDS08.COD: Climate Data from Weather Stations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whiting, John W. M.

    1986-01-01

    STDS08.COD: CLIMATE DATA FROM WEATHER STATIONS John W. M.84:279-298 (1982). The weather data are cited as coming fromFischer. Keywords: Climate. Weather. SCCS Codes. STDS08.CSV

  6. Predicting Weather Regime Transitions in Northern Hemisphere Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D. Kondrashov; J. Shen; R. Berk; F. D

    2011-01-01

    R, D’Andrea F, Ghil M (2007) Weather regime prediction usingA case study. Mon. Weather Rev. , 120, 1616–1627. Kimoto M,D, Ide K, Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred

  7. Predicting Weather Regime Transitions in Northern Hemisphere Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kondrashov, D.; Shen, J.; Berk, R.; D., F

    2006-01-01

    R, D’Andrea F, Ghil M (2007) Weather regime prediction usingA case study. Mon. Weather Rev. , 120, 1616–1627. Kimoto M,D, Ide K, Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred

  8. Predicting Weather Regime Transitions in Northern Hemisphere Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kondrashov, Dmitri; Shen, Jie; Berk, Richard; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.

    2006-01-01

    R, D'Andrea F, Ghil M (2007) Weather regime prediction usingA case study. Mon. Weather Rev. , 120, 1616-1627. Kimoto M ,D, Ide K , Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred

  9. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2008-01-01

    Models of Climate and Weather Michael Wehner, Leonid Oliker,modeling climate change and weather prediction is one of thedelity in both short term weather prediction and long term

  10. The Santa Ana Winds of Southern California in the context of Fire Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cao, Yang

    2015-01-01

    to near-surface sustained wind forecasts, the spatial extentthe dependence of wind forecast bias on sustained windpositive sustained wind forecast bias at those locations.

  11. Weatherization works: Final report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G.; Kinney, L.F.

    1994-09-01

    In 1990, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation`s largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year (supplemented by data from 1991-92). The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it (1) saves energy, (2) lowers fuel bills, and (3) improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years.

  12. Nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere and space weather

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sharma, A.S. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Astronomy

    1996-12-31

    The solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system exhibits coherence on the global scale and such behavior can arise from nonlinearity in the dynamics. The observational time series data have been used extensively to analyze the magnetospheric dynamics by using the techniques of phase space reconstruction. Analyses of the solar wind and auroral electrojet and Dst indices have shown low dimensionality of the dynamics and accurate prediction can be made with an input-output model. The predictability of the magnetosphere in spite of the apparent complexity arises form its being synchronized, in the dynamical sense, to the solar wind. The AE and Dst data are used to analyze the storm-substorm relationship based on the input-output model. This shows differences between the storm-time and non-storm substorms, and is interpreted in terms of loading-unloading and directly driven processes. The strong electrodynamic coupling between the different regions of the magnetosphere yields its coherent and thus low dimensional behavior. The data from multiple satellites and ground stations are used to develop a spatio-temporal model that identifies the coupling between the different regions. These nonlinear dynamical models provide forecasting tools for space weather.

  13. Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing, November 4, 2009 Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing, November 4, 2009 U.S. Department of...

  14. Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On...

  15. Protecting the Electric Grid from Increasingly Severe Weather...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Protecting the Electric Grid from Increasingly Severe Weather Due to Climate Change Protecting the Electric Grid from Increasingly Severe Weather Due to Climate Change August 12,...

  16. How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life February 19, 2015 - 4:45pm Addthis The Rocky...

  17. Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good Investments Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good Investments August 10, 2015 - 4:30pm...

  18. DOE Announces $29 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    expand weatherization training centers across the country. These projects will provide green job training for local workers in energy efficiency retrofitting and weatherization...

  19. Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization December 9, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis Since...

  20. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  1. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  2. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  3. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  4. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  5. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  6. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  7. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  8. Regional weather modeling on parallel computers.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baillie, C.; Michalakes, J.; Skalin, R.; Mathematics and Computer Science; NOAA Forecast Systems Lab.; Norwegian Meteorological Inst.

    1997-01-01

    This special issue on 'regional weather models' complements the October 1995 special issue on 'climate and weather modeling', which focused on global models. In this introduction we review the similarities and differences between regional and global atmospheric models. Next, the structure of regional models is described and we consider how the basic algorithms applied in these models influence the parallelization strategy. Finally, we give a brief overview of the eight articles in this issue and discuss some remaining challenges in the area of adapting regional weather models to parallel computers.

  9. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  10. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  11. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  12. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  13. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  14. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  15. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  16. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  17. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  18. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  19. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  20. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  1. Abiotic: water !, Soil, Sunlight, wind, air, weather,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Deborah

    Generate power: Hydro-electric power Biodiversity change or loss Invasive species Organism interactions, food webs Power, recreation, drinking, agriculture, irrigation, aesthetics, housing, industry, food, Habitat? Climate/Weather Flood control Water diversion- dam Geologic Processes Create power

  2. Idaho Falls Power- Residential Weatherization Loan Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Residential customers with permanently installed electric heat who receive service from the City of Idaho Falls, are eligible for 0% weatherization loans. City Energy Service will conduct an energy...

  3. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia;

    2013-05-29

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

  4. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia

    2010-01-01

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

  5. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in...

  6. Illinois and Texas Towns See Weatherization Boost

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    “It cropped about a hundred bucks off my bill in the cold, cold winter,” says Springfield resident Donald Dagget, a 78-year-old retired beauty salon owner who had his 1937, two-bedroom bungalow weatherized in October.

  7. National Ignition Facility wet weather construction plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kugler, A N

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a wet weather construction plan for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) construction project. Construction of the NIF commenced in mid- 1997, and excavation of the site was completed in the fall. Preparations for placing concrete foundations began in the fall, and above normal rainfall is expected over the tinter. Heavy rainfall in late November impacted foundation construction, and a wet weather construction plan was determined to be needed. This wet weather constiction plan recommends a strategy, techniques and management practices to prepare and protect the site corn wet weather effects and allow construction work to proceed. It is intended that information in this plan be incorporated in the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) as warranted.

  8. Cowlitz County PUD- Residential Weatherization Plus Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Cowlitz County PUD offers an incentive to residential customers who weatherize their homes. Eligible residences can be either site-built or manufactured homes, but must have a permanently installed...

  9. Ohio Celebrates Recovery Act Weatherization Program Performance...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    to work, but ... here in Ohio, we are positioning ourselves to be at the front of this wave of the new energy economy." The Carrs' home was weatherized by LEADS Community Action...

  10. Human-Centered Systems Analysis of Aircraft Separation from Adverse Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence

    Adverse weather significantly impacts the safety and efficiency of flight operations. Weather information

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  13. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  14. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  15. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  16. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  17. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  18. Calibrating DOE-2 to weather and non-weather-dependent loads for a commercial building 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bronson, John Douglas

    1992-01-01

    CALIBRATING DOE-2 TO WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER-DEPENDENT LOADS FOR A COMMERCIAL BUILDING A Thesis by JOHN DOUGLAS BRONSON Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1992 Major Subject: Mechanical Engineering CALIBRATING DOE-2 TO WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER-DEPENDENT LOADS FOR A COMMERCIAL BUILDING A Thesis by JOHN DOUGLAS BRONSON Approved as to style and content by: M D~c Dennis...

  19. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  20. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.