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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Demand forecasting for multiple slow-moving items with short requests history and unequal demand variance  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Modeling the lead-time demand for the multiple slow-moving inventory items in the case when the available requests history is very short is a challenge for inventory management. The classical forecasting technique, which is based on the aggregation of the stock keeping units to overcome the mentioned historical data peculiarity, is known to lead to very poor performance in many cases important for industrial applications. An alternative approach to the demand forecasting for the considered problem is based on the Bayesian paradigm, when the initially developed population-averaged demand probability distribution is modified for each item using its specific requests history. This paper follows this approach and presents a new model, which relies on the beta distribution as a prior for the request probability, and allows to account for disparity in variance of demand between different stock keeping units. To estimate the model parameters, a special computationally effective technique based on the generalized method of moments is developed. Simulation results indicate the superiority of the proposed model over the known ones, while the computational burden does not increase.

Alexandre Dolgui; Maksim Pashkevich

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

An optimized mean variance estimation method for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A statistical optimized technique for rapid development of reliable prediction intervals (PIs) is presented in this study. The mean–variance estimation (MVE) technique is employed here for quantification of uncertainties related with wind power predictions. In this method, two separate neural network models are used for estimation of wind power generation and its variance. A novel PI-based training algorithm is also presented to enhance the performance of the MVE method and improve the quality of PIs. For an in-depth analysis, comprehensive experiments are conducted with seasonal datasets taken from three geographically dispersed wind farms in Australia. Five confidence levels of \\{PIs\\} are between 50% and 90%. Obtained results show while both traditional and optimized \\{PIs\\} are hypothetically valid, the optimized \\{PIs\\} are much more informative than the traditional MVE PIs. The informativeness of these \\{PIs\\} paves the way for their application in trouble-free operation and smooth integration of wind farms into energy systems.

Abbas Khosravi; Saeid Nahavandi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

4

SWS Variance Request  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

As Grantees update and revise their field standards to align with the SWS, they may discover certain specifications that cannot be implemented precisely as described in the relevant SWS. In such cases, Grantees may request a variance from the relevant SWS.

5

Narrative ethics, narrative aesthetics : functions, characters, and effects.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Using the rhetorical theory of narrative as developed by James Phelan, most specifically his ethics of the told and ethics of the telling, this thesis… (more)

Lande, Dana Ryan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Stedman escreve e desenha Narrative.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Tese de mestrado em Estudos Anglísticos apresentada à Faculdade de Letras da Universidade de Lisboa, 2008 O presente estudo analisa Narrative of a five years… (more)

Correia, Helena Isabel Assunção

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

8

Memorandum Approval of a Permanenet Variance Regarding Static Magnetic Fields at Brookhaven National Laboratory (Variance 1021)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Approval of a Permanenet Variance Regarding Static Magnetic Fields at Brookhaven National Laboratory (Variance 1021)

9

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Memorandum, Approval of a Permanent Variance Regarding Static Magnetic Fields at Brookhaven National Laboratory (Variance 102 1)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Approval of a Permanenet Variance Regarding Static Magnetic Fields at Brookhaven National Laboratory (Variance 1021)

11

Exponential smoothing models: Means and variances for lead-time demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing is often used to forecast lead-time demand (LTD) for inventory control. In this paper, formulae are provided for calculating means and variances of LTD for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. A feature of many of the formulae is that variances, as well as the means, depend on trends and seasonal effects. Thus, these formulae provide the opportunity to implement methods that ensure that safety stocks adjust to changes in trend or changes in season. An example using weekly sales shows how safety stocks can be seriously underestimated during peak sales periods.

Ralph D Snyder; Anne B Koehler; Rob J Hyndman; J.Keith Ord

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

14

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

18

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

19

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

20

Transhumanism and the imago Dei: narratives of apprehension and hope.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality generate narratives of apprehension within contemporary Western technoculture. Transhumanist narratives declare that humanity… (more)

Garner, Stephen Robert

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

22

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Experiments in Narrative: Canadian situations and Suzanne Stein  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

are still exploring a much older preoccupation and condition for success: creating compelling narrative

Masthoff, Judith

25

Component of variance estimation based on synthesis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Component of Variance Estimation based on. Synthesis. (August lg (2) Jocelyn Anthea Tommerup, B. Sc. , B. Econ. , University of Queenslsnd Directed. by: Dr. H. 0. Hartley Analysis of variance, widely used in the study of statistical variation.... Essentially the problem is to find these coefficients so that, estimstes of the components may be computed. Hartley [1967] hss proposed a method which gives these coef'ficients directly for sry design, balanced of' unbalanced. It is the objective...

Tommerup, Jocelyn Anthea

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

26

Musical form in non-narrative video  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

"Musical Form in Non- Narrative Video" explores musical structure as a model for visual form over time, specifically in the creation of artistic video. Video is a medium in which sound and image coexist at the source as ...

Sebring, Ellen Irene

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Cognitive Structures Underlying Gendered Language Usage in Germany: Narration and Linguistic Fieldwork  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Underlying Gendered Language Usage in Germany: Narration andUnderlying Gendered Language Usage in Germany: Narration andUnderlying Gendered Language Usage in Germany: Narration and

Kolar, Meredith

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

29

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

30

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

31

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

32

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

34

Minimum variance beamforming with soft response constraints  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Soft constraints on the beamformer response to the signal are examined in the context of minimum variance beamforming. A quadratic constraint on the beamformer weights is used to control the mean-squared error between a desired response and the actual ...

B.D. van Veen

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Multiple Comparisons  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Multiple Comparisons The Kruskal-Wallis Test Two-Way ANOVA Stat 491 The Kruskal-Wallis Test Two-Way ANOVA Introduction We are interested in testing equality of k population means (ANOVA) Multiple Comparisons The Kruskal-Wallis Test Two-Way ANOVA ANOVA: Simulated Data (k = 4; µ1 = 5

Bardsley, John

36

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

37

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

39

STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET The SEP Narrative consists of information on each SEP market, mandatory or optional, planned for the program year (PY), submitted on the SEP Narrative Information Worksheet included in the Forms section (or facsimile). If there is no change in the purpose and description of a continuing market, only the milestones and PY budget need be submitted in subsequent years. A state plan can have more than one Market/SEP Narrative Information Worksheet. STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET More Documents & Publications State Energy Program Formula Grants American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Microsoft Word - oDE-FOA-0000052.rtf

40

STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET The SEP Narrative consists of information on each SEP market, mandatory or optional, planned for the program year (PY), submitted on the SEP Narrative Information Worksheet included in the Forms section (or facsimile). If there is no change in the purpose and description of a continuing market, only the milestones and PY budget need be submitted in subsequent years. A state plan can have more than one Market/SEP Narrative Information Worksheet. STATE ENERGY PROGRAM (SEP) NARRATIVE INFORMATION WORKSHEET More Documents & Publications ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

44

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

45

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

47

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

48

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

49

Magnetic-field variance in layered superconductors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In highly anisotropic or layered high-Tc superconductors with magnetic field along the c axis, both pinning-caused and thermal fluctuations of the highly flexible vortex cores, or of chains of vortex dots, threading the cuperconducting layers may drastically reduce the variance ? of the magnetic-field fluctuation. In contrast, the fluctuations of the averaged flux lines (smoothed over the in-plane penetration depth ?) increase ?. As a consequence, muon-spin-rotation lines may be sharpened not only the thermal motional narrowing, but also by pinning-caused static disorder.

Ernst Helmut Brandt

1991-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

50

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

52

Geothermal CSC Narratives Template | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Narratives Template Home > Groups > 2014 Geothermal Case Study Challenge Mbennett's picture Submitted by Mbennett(30) Member 24 January, 2014 - 11:26 Upload Files: application...

53

Mobile After-media, Cultural Narratives and the Data Imaginary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fiction and reality in mobile experiences. Paper presentedMobile After-media, Cultural Narratives and the Datahis approach toward mobile after-media. These theoretical

Kabisch, Eric

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

55

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

56

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

58

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

E-Print Network 3.0 - accountability narrative reporting Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

narrative reporting Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: accountability narrative reporting Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 STORYEVAL: An...

60

THE NUCLEAR ARJUNA: A NARRATIVE CRITICISM OF VAJPAYEE'S LOK SABHA ADDRESS.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The thesis is a rhetorical and narrative criticism of Atal Bihari Vajpayee's 1998 pro-nuclear Lok Sabha address. Through Walter Fisher's narrative paradigm, I argue that… (more)

DeLong, Brian LaMonte

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

62

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Card shark and thespis: exotic tools for hypertext narrative  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Card Shark and Thespis are two newly-implemented hypertext systems for creating hypertext narrative. Both systems depart dramatically from the tools currently popular for writing hypertext fiction, and these departures may help distinguish between the ... Keywords: fiction, hypertext systems, narrative, storyspace

Mark Bernstein

2001-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Reduction of Emission Variance by Intelligent Air Path Control  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This poster describes an air path control concept, which minimizes NOx and PM emission variance while having the ability to run reliably with many different sensor configurations.

65

Hawaii Guide for Filing Community Noise Variance Applications...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

for completing Noise Variance Applications. Author State of Hawaii Department of Health Published State of Hawaii, 072013 DOI Not Provided Check for DOI availability: http:...

66

Hawaii Application for Community Noise Variance (DOH Form) |...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Application for Community Noise Variance Organization State of Hawaii Department of Health Published Publisher Not Provided, 072013 DOI Not Provided Check for DOI availability:...

67

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

68

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

70

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

72

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

74

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

76

Oak Ridge Reservation environmental report for 1992. Volume 1: Narrative  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The two volumes of this report present data and supporting narratives regarding the impact of the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) on its environs and the public during 1992. This Volume (Volume 1) includes all narrative descriptions, summaries, and conclusions and is intended to be a ``stand-alone`` report for the reader who does not want to review in detail all of the 1992 data for the ORR. Volume 2 includes the detailed data in formats that ensure all the environmental data are represented. Narratives are not included in Vol. 2.

Koncinski, W.S. [ed.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

79

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

80

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

82

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

83

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

A ceaseless becoming : narratives of adolescence across media  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Thesis explores the broad appeal of narratives with adolescent protagonists across a variety of media, including literature, film, and video games. An analysis of key texts within their historical contexts reveals affinities ...

Grigsby, Neal A. (Neal Alan)

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Racial Narratives, Group Identity, and African-American Political Behavior  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

My dissertation seeks to advance the racial politics and political behavior literatures in American politics by focusing on the role of "racial narratives" in explaining historical changes in African-American political ...

Delehanty, William

2010-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

86

Augmenting users' task performance through workspace narrative exploration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

contexts with ease. The Context Browser, the implementation of the proposed approach, is designed to help the users to explore narratives of their workspace manner and restore their previous work contexts. The goals of implementing the Context Browser...

Park, Young Joo

2010-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

87

Operating Guidelines Narrative.DOC | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

More Documents & Publications Operating Guidelines Narrative.DOC&0; Operating Guidelines Appendix A B.DOC&0; O:A76Post Award AccountabilityPCA Handbook.prn.pdf...

88

Variance in trace constituents following the final stratospheric warming  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Temporal variances in the concentration of trace species are examined within the northern hemisphere stratosphere following the final warming. Variances are computed utilizing an annual cycle run of a tracer transport model and stratospheric balloon observations. The model uses winds generated with a general circulation model to transport N{sub 2}O. Regions of significant N{sub 2}O variance are produced immediately following the modeled final warming as zonally inhomogeneous N{sub 2}O anomalies are created during the warming, then advected passively about the pole by easterly winds. Diffusion rapidly dissipates these anomalies and decreases the associated stratospheric tracer variance to very low levels by June. On monthly timescales the 10 day normal mode explains up to 50% of the modeled variance of N{sub 2}O during summer. On these timescales potential temperature exhibits less variability than N{sub 2}O, as horizontal parcel displacements are relatively ineffective at inducing potential temperature variability. An examination of balloon observations of N{sub 2}O and other long lived trace species, between 40{degree} and 50{degree}N, indicates that the primary component of the tracer variance during June is on an interannual time scale. The authors attribute this interannual variability to stratospheric variability during the winter and early spring months imprinted onto the distributions of long lived tracers. Potential temperatures does not exhibit much interannual variability because it does not retain a memory of the previous winters circulation.

Hess, P. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle (USA))

1990-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

89

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

94

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

95

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

96

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

97

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

98

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

99

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

100

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Narrative approaches to raising consciousness about sexual harassment: From research to pedagogy and back again  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper we discuss narrative from both a theoretical and pedagogical perspective. After briefly reviewing the theoretical possibilities of narrative for addressing the problem of sexual harassment, we discuss how ...

Clair, Robin Patric; Chapman, Pamela A.; Kunkel, Adrianne

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

A demonstration of variance and covariance calculations using MAVARIC (Materials Accounting VARIance Calculator) and PROFF (PROcessing and Fuel Facilities calculator)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Good decision-making in materials accounting requires a valid calculation of control limits and detection sensitivity for facilities handling special nuclear materials (SNM). A difficult aspect of this calculation is determining the appropriate variance and covariance values for the terms in the materials balance (MB) equation. Computer software such as MAVARIC (Materials Accounting VARIance Calculator) and PROFF (PROcessing and Fuel Facilities calculator) can efficiently select and combine variance terms. These programs determine the variance and covariance of an MB equation by first obtaining relations for the variance and covariance of each term in the MB equation through propagating instrument errors and then substituting the measured quantities and their uncertainties into these relations. MAVARIC is a custom spreadsheet used with the second release of LOTUS 1-2-3.** PROFF is a stand-alone menu-driven program requiring no commercial software. Programs such as MAVARIC and PROFF facilitate the complex calculations required to determine the detection sensitivity of an SNM facility. These programs can also be used to analyze materials accounting systems.

Barlich, G.L.; Nasseri, S.S.

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Submean variance bound for effective resistance of random electric networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study a model of random electric networks with Bernoulli resistances. In the case of the lattice Z^2, we show that the point-to-point effective resistance between 0 and a vertex v has a variance of order at most (log |v|)^(2/3) whereas its expected value is of order log |v|, when v goes to infinity. When the dimension of Z^d is different than 2, expectation and variance are of the same order. Similar results are obtained in the context of p-resistance. The proofs rely on a modified Poincare inequality due to Falik and Samorodnitsky.

Itai Benjamini; Raphael Rossignol

2006-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

104

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

106

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

107

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

108

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

109

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

110

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

111

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

113

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

115

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

116

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Brief paper: A parameter space approach to constrained variance PID controller design  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a parameter space approach to constrained variance and minimum variance PID controller design for LTI models. The technique is based on rational transfer functions of the plant and noise models. Loci corresponding to a fixed variance ... Keywords: Low-order controllers, Minimum variance, Multi-objective, PID, Parameter space

P. B. Dickinson; A. T. Shenton

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Counseling and Psychotherapy Transcripts, Client Narratives, and Reference Works  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

," under Subjects, or "Anger" under Symptoms. Advanced Search How-To and Features The advanced search or further exploration. To access the Advanced Search page, click on the "Search" tab at the top narratives. What this means is that you can use the advanced search to get at incredibly detailed information

Canberra, University of

119

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

122

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

123

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

124

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Variance estimation for radiation analysis and multi-sensor fusion.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Variance estimates that are used in the analysis of radiation measurements must represent all of the measurement and computational uncertainties in order to obtain accurate parameter and uncertainty estimates. This report describes an approach for estimating components of the variance associated with both statistical and computational uncertainties. A multi-sensor fusion method is presented that renders parameter estimates for one-dimensional source models based on input from different types of sensors. Data obtained with multiple types of sensors improve the accuracy of the parameter estimates, and inconsistencies in measurements are also reflected in the uncertainties for the estimated parameter. Specific analysis examples are presented that incorporate a single gross neutron measurement with gamma-ray spectra that contain thousands of channels. The parameter estimation approach is tolerant of computational errors associated with detector response functions and source model approximations.

Mitchell, Dean James

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Estimating Predictive Variance for Statistical Gas Distribution Modelling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Recent publications in statistical gas distribution modelling have proposed algorithms that model mean and variance of a distribution. This paper argues that estimating the predictive concentration variance entails not only a gradual improvement but is rather a significant step to advance the field. This is, first, since the models much better fit the particular structure of gas distributions, which exhibit strong fluctuations with considerable spatial variations as a result of the intermittent character of gas dispersal. Second, because estimating the predictive variance allows to evaluate the model quality in terms of the data likelihood. This offers a solution to the problem of ground truth evaluation, which has always been a critical issue for gas distribution modelling. It also enables solid comparisons of different modelling approaches, and provides the means to learn meta parameters of the model, to determine when the model should be updated or re-initialised, or to suggest new measurement locations based on the current model. We also point out directions of related ongoing or potential future research work.

Lilienthal, Achim J.; Asadi, Sahar; Reggente, Matteo [AASS Research Center, Oerebro University (Sweden)

2009-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

127

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

130

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

131

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

132

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

133

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

134

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

135

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

137

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

139

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

142

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Succession Narratives in Family Business: The Case of Alessi  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conceptualized in a number of different ways, but we follow Barry and Elmes (1997, p. 431) in defining it as “thematic, sequenced accounts that convey meaning from implied author to implied reader.” From this perspective, narrative is a strategic device – a... and adjusted over time; they are inevitably “told in a particular context, to particular listeners, by a particular story teller, for particular purposes” (Gartner, 2007, p. 614). As such, the stories communicated by entrepreneurs are never completed...

Dalpiaz, Elena; Tracey, Paul; Phillips, Nelson

2014-09-04T23:59:59.000Z

144

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Fringe biasing: A variance reduction technique for optically thick meshes  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Fringe biasing is a stratified sampling scheme applicable to Monte Carlo thermal radiation transport codes. The thermal emission source in optically thick cells is partitioned into separate contributions from the cell interiors (where the likelihood of the particles escaping the cells is virtually zero) and the 'fringe' regions close to the cell boundaries. Thermal emission in the cell interiors can now be modelled with fewer particles, the remaining particles being concentrated in the fringes so that they are more likely to contribute to the energy exchange between cells. Unlike other techniques for improving the efficiency in optically thick regions (such as random walk and discrete diffusion treatments), fringe biasing has the benefit of simplicity, as the associated changes are restricted to the sourcing routines with the particle tracking routines being unaffected. This paper presents an analysis of the potential for variance reduction achieved from employing the fringe biasing technique. The aim of this analysis is to guide the implementation of this technique in Monte Carlo thermal radiation codes, specifically in order to aid the choice of the fringe width and the proportion of particles allocated to the fringe (which are interrelated) in multi-dimensional simulations, and to confirm that the significant levels of variance reduction achieved in simulations can be understood by studying the behaviour for simple test cases. The variance reduction properties are studied for a single cell in a slab geometry purely absorbing medium, investigating the accuracy of the scalar flux and current tallies on one of the interfaces with the surrounding medium. (authors)

Smedley-Stevenson, R. P. [AWE PLC, Aldermaston Reading, Berkshire, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

The minimum variance of the squared error adaptive algorithm  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the coefficient error l 0&@, & k(2k ? 1) E[n ']T~? (2. 18) where p ? = =maximal eigenvalue of R. In practice, finding p, maybe difficult; however, the maximal eigenvalue of a positive definite matrix can be above bounded by its trace and in this case, tr... large and thus, p is very small. Without these assumptions, some of the analysis breaks down; that is why the "low noise" case is tr?ated separately. Also, it is possible to observe differences in the mean squared error and the variance of the squared...

Gray, Steven Deward

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

148

E-Print Network 3.0 - affect narrative processes Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

that narrative delivery affects people's perception and relationships. Beginning... the exploration. Interactive Process The following shows how the system begins the...

149

Cognitive Structures Underlying Gendered Language Usage in Germany: Narration and Linguistic Fieldwork  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in Conceptual Knowledge. Cognitive Neuropsychology 22.455- G2004. The Neural Bases of Cognitive Conflict and Control inNarrative Theory and the Cognitive Sciences. Stanford:

Kolar, Meredith

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

E-Print Network 3.0 - american migration narratives Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and character information contributed by the reader of the narrative and used Source: Shapiro, Stuart C. - Department of Computer Science and Engineering, State University of...

151

E-Print Network 3.0 - adapting effective narrative-based Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

the concept of narrative based librarianship as described by Brophy (2004; 2007... in Theory and Practice, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA. pp.173-200. Brophy, P. (2004)...

152

A Plan-Based Model of Conflict for Narrative Reasoning and Generation.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? Narrative is one of the fundamental cognitive tools that we use to understand the world around us. When interacting with other humans we rely… (more)

Ware, Stephen G.

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

154

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

155

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

156

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

157

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

158

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

159

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

165

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Narrative Foreground in the Plays of Osvaldo Dragún  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the audience is prepared for an experience of storytelling, that is, of narration. Robyn Lutz notes that "the consciousness of audience is always present, with the result that the tale never becomes a you-were-there reliving of past events" (31). David... Foster points out that the audience of Historias "proporciona tanto la sustancia semántica de la obra como su validación lingüística en la medida en que el receptor justifica la presencia del mensaje" (134). The first story, "Historia de un flemón, una...

Gladhart, Amalia

1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

170

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

171

Slim completions offer limited stimulation variances: Part 3  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This is the third in a series of five articles addressing barriers to increased US utilization of slimhole drilling and completion techniques. Previous articles discussed slimhole drilling and cementing. The focus of this article is stimulation, with an emphasis on hydraulic fracturing. This series is based on a study conducted for Gas Research institute (GRI) by an industry team consisting of Maurer Engineering, BJ Services, Baker Oil tools, and Halliburton. Parts 1 and 2 were published in the September and October 1994 issues of Petroleum Engineer International, respectively. Potential cost saving resulting from slimhole drilling and completions of gas wells are often inhibited by the limitations on hydraulic fracturing. Variances from conventional fracturing include excessive friction pressure, fracture fluid degradation due to excessive shear rates, proppant bridging and limited diverting options.

Brunsman, B.J. (Gas Research Inst., Chicago, IL (United States)); Matson, R. (BJ Services Co., Tomball, TX (United States)); Shook, R.A. (Maurer Engineering Inc., Houston, TX (United States))

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

The impact of cosmic variance on simulating weak lensing surveys  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Upcoming weak lensing surveys will survey large cosmological volumes to measure the growth of cosmological structure with time and thereby constrain dark energy. One major systematic uncertainty in this process is the calibration of the weak lensing shape distortions, or shears. Most upcoming surveys plan to test several aspects of their shear estimation algorithms using sophisticated image simulations that include realistic galaxy populations based on high-resolution data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). However, existing datasets from the (HST) cover very small cosmological volumes, so cosmic variance could cause the galaxy populations in them to be atypical. A narrow redshift slice from such surveys could be dominated by a single large overdensity or underdensity. In that case, the morphology-density relation could alter the local galaxy populations and yield an incorrect calibration of shear estimates as a function of redshift. We directly test this scenario using the COSMOS survey, the largest-area...

Kannawadi, Arun; Lackner, Claire

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

175

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

176

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

177

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

178

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

179

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

180

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

The Rise And Fall Of The Muslim Brotherhood In The Egyptian Revolution: The Interplay of Narrative And Other Factors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the aftermath of revolution is that leaders adapt their narrative (including policies) to the changed context (revolutionaries as rulers) and reform existing institutions. Historically, the failure to successfully adapt narrative results in instability. After...

Tombaugh, William

2013-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

182

Page 1 of 5 Narrative Description of Hydraulic Fracturing Draft Regulations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Page 1 of 5 Narrative Description of Hydraulic Fracturing Draft Regulations The Department of Conservation has released a discussion draft of hydraulic fracturing (HF) regulations. This narrative attempts formation (i.e., higher than the strata's "fracture pressure"). In HF, a fluid with #12;Page 2 of 5

183

Individual differences in gameplay and learning: a narrative-centered learning perspective  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Narrative-centered learning environments are an important class of educational games that situate learning within rich story contexts. The work presented in this paper investigates individual differences in gameplay and learning during student interactions ... Keywords: empirical evaluation, engagement, game-based learning, narrative-centered learning environments

Jonathan P. Rowe; Lucy R. Shores; Bradford W. Mott; James C. Lester

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

185

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

187

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

188

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

189

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

190

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

191

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

193

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

194

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

195

Coal Price Index Forecast by a New Partial Least-Squares Regression  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Deviation of coal price has great influence on growth of China's economic. Daily coal price indexes in Qinhuangdao were collected. Past twenty days were used to predict next day index. The principal components of twenty days were extracted. The function between output variable and components was fitted by linear, quadratic and exponential model. This improved traditional partial least-squares regression. Traditional method such as multivariate linear regression and polynomial regression were coming into comparing with our method. Improved quadratic partial least-squares obtained the smallest relative errors in mean and variance for ten reserved indexes. Those ten errors had minimum 0.3%, median 3.3% and maximum 9.7%. The ideal forecast precision certified that quadratic partial least-squares was suitable for coal price indexes.

Bo Zhang; Junhai Ma

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

197

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

198

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study employs a flexible regime-switching EGARCH model with Student-t distributed error terms to investigate whether volatility regimes and basis affect the behavior of crude oil futures returns, including the conditional mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis as well as the extent of heavy-tailedness. The study also examines whether volatility regimes and asymmetric basis effects can improve the forecasting accuracy. The main merit of the empirical model is that the basis effect is allowed to be asymmetric and to vary across volatility regimes. Empirical results suggest that the conditional mean and variance respond to the basis asymmetrically and nonlinearly, and that the responses of transition probabilities to the basis are symmetric. Furthermore, the conditional higher moments are sensitive to the absolute value of basis, and the heavy tailed characteristic can be greatly alleviated by taking into account the asymmetric basis effects and regime switches. Finally, the regime switches and asymmetric basis effects play decisive roles in forecasting return, volatility and tail distribution.

Kuang-Liang Chang

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Improving computational efficiency of Monte Carlo simulations with variance reduction  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

CCFE perform Monte-Carlo transport simulations on large and complex tokamak models such as ITER. Such simulations are challenging since streaming and deep penetration effects are equally important. In order to make such simulations tractable, both variance reduction (VR) techniques and parallel computing are used. It has been found that the application of VR techniques in such models significantly reduces the efficiency of parallel computation due to 'long histories'. VR in MCNP can be accomplished using energy-dependent weight windows. The weight window represents an 'average behaviour' of particles, and large deviations in the arriving weight of a particle give rise to extreme amounts of splitting being performed and a long history. When running on parallel clusters, a long history can have a detrimental effect on the parallel efficiency - if one process is computing the long history, the other CPUs complete their batch of histories and wait idle. Furthermore some long histories have been found to be effectively intractable. To combat this effect, CCFE has developed an adaptation of MCNP which dynamically adjusts the WW where a large weight deviation is encountered. The method effectively 'de-optimises' the WW, reducing the VR performance but this is offset by a significant increase in parallel efficiency. Testing with a simple geometry has shown the method does not bias the result. This 'long history method' has enabled CCFE to significantly improve the performance of MCNP calculations for ITER on parallel clusters, and will be beneficial for any geometry combining streaming and deep penetration effects. (authors)

Turner, A. [EURATOM/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon, 0X14 3DB (United Kingdom); Davis, A. [EURATOM/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon, 0X14 3DB (United Kingdom); University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (United States)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Latin American narratives of sustainability: opportunities for engagement through films  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Can cinema become a vehicle to promote a reflection about the environment that will foster the adoption of values based on planet citizenship, socially responsible attitudes, and environmental commitment? The critical analysis that is presented here of environmental conflicts, as reflected in Latin American cinematographic narratives, can contribute to developing a global gaze in environmental education, thus encouraging the cinema-viewing public to see themselves as citizens committed to ecological problems in distant lands. It can also help raise awareness about the injustice caused by the exploitation of natural resources for commercial purposes. We have focused on the Cochabamba 'water war', and the movie Even the Rain, using a process of active viewing to enable students to approach film in a more motivated manner.

José Gutiérrez-Pérez

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

204

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

205

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

206

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

207

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

209

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

211

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

212

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

213

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

214

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Reviving Ballet in the Nineteenth Century: Music, Narrative, and Dance in Delibes's Coppélia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Léo Delibes (1836-1891) wrote ballet scores that have inspired composers and have entertained generations of ballet lovers. His scores have been cited for their tunefulness, appropriateness for their narrative, and for ...

Lafex, Arthur Edward

2013-05-31T23:59:59.000Z

216

Sekai-kei as Existentialist Narrative: Positioning Xenosaga within the Genre Framework.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The term sekai-kei (“world-type”), a genre of subcultural narrative whose defining characteristic is the omission of a mediating social dimension between individual characters and an… (more)

Thomas, Stefanie

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Forever Changed: Boarding School Narratives of American Indian Identity in the U.S. and Canada  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This essay examines personal narratives to identify experiences at boarding schools. These collective experiences forged new American Indian identities due to a white educational system forced upon these Indian students. While stories remain part...

Smith, Maureen

2001-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Broadcast news and abortion : the effects of conservative narratives on the reproductive health debate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

How have changes in the elite discussion of reproductive health narratives affected the debate on abortion and influenced state legislation and popular opinion? Using analysis of broadcast transcripts from CNN and FOX News, ...

Jenssen, Mark (Mark Peter)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

FY 2008-2018 F&W Program Project Solicitation Section 10. Narrative  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FY 2008-2018 F&W Program Project Solicitation Section 10. Narrative Project ID: 2008-301-00 Lead Transport Inc. 1999 gasoline spill settlement fund. It is anticipated that over the next ten years (2008

220

The Victorian Laptop: Narrative Engagement through Place and Time J. Cassell & J. Smith  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Victorian Laptop: Narrative Engagement through Place and Time J. Cassell & J. Smith MIT Media Lab E15-315, 20 Ames Street Cambridge, MA 02139 {justine, jsmith}@media.mit.edu Abstract We introduce

Cassell, Justine

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

222

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

225

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

226

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

227

A review of "Milton's Scriptural Reasoning: Narrative and Protestant Toleration" by Philip J. Donnelly  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Donnelly. Milton?s Scriptural Reasoning: Narrative and Protes- tant Toleration. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2009. 278 pp. $90.00. Review by john mulryan, st. bonaventure university. This immensely complicated, jargon-filled book argues.... Donnelly. Milton?s Scriptural Reasoning: Narrative and Protes- tant Toleration. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2009. 278 pp. $90.00. Review by john mulryan, st. bonaventure university. This immensely complicated, jargon-filled book argues...

Mulryan, John

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Beer powered bicycle: narrative ethnography and print representations of punk/hardcore culture  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BEER POWERED BICYCLE: NARRATIVE ETHNOGRAPHY AND PRINT REPRESENTATIONS OF PUNK/HARDCORE CULTURE A Senior Honors Thesis By Stephanie M, Stanbro Submitted to the Office of Honors Programs & Academic Scholarships Texas ARM University In partial... fulfillment of the requirements of the UNIVERSITY UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWS April 2000 Group: Cultural Studies BEER POWERED BICYCLE: NARRATIVE ETHNOGRAPHY AND PRINT REPRESENTATIONS OF PUNK/HARDCORE CULTURE A Senior Honors Thesis By Stephanie M...

Stanbro, Stephanie M

2013-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

229

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Iconic prosody and information in spontaneous oral narrative  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information interchange on cognitive categories of the mental representation of referents (concepts) interrelated with prosodic marking (levels of phonological prominence) have been studied. Speakers actualize a limited amount of information inactivating backwards. These cognitive processes appear in three states of the referents: activation semi?activation and inactivation. In activation a concept would be focalized in actual stream of consciousness. In semi?activation the information is situated in a peripheral zone of consciousness: the concept was already activated. In inactivation the concept would be activated in the hearer’s conscience for the first time. These states were analyzed through data extracted from spontaneous narrative discourses obtained from an Argentinean Spanish speaker. The iconicity of prosodic prominences a correlation between the phonetic encoding and the mental status of information weight was explored acoustically. Measurements were made through F0 data normalized by a logarithmic z?score transformation calculated in the highest value of an item classified among one of the three states. Findings were similar to previous research on semi?spontaneous materials [G. Toledo 16th International Congress on Acoustics 4aSC1]: lower prominences were the marking of activation and semi?activation and higher prominences were the feature of inactivation i.e. a degree of prosodic iconicity.

Guillermo Andrés Toledo

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

234

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

236

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

238

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

239

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

240

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

242

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

244

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

245

GRR/Section 18-HI-d - Variance from Pollution Control | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

form form View source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » GRR/Section 18-HI-d - Variance from Pollution Control < GRR Jump to: navigation, search GRR-logo.png GEOTHERMAL REGULATORY ROADMAP Roadmap Home Roadmap Help List of Sections Section 18-HI-d - Variance from Pollution Control 18HID - VarianceFromPollutionControl (4).pdf Click to View Fullscreen Contact Agencies Hawaii Department of Health Clean Water Branch Regulations & Policies Wastewater Systems Triggers None specified Click "Edit With Form" above to add content 18HID - VarianceFromPollutionControl (4).pdf Error creating thumbnail: Page number not in range.

246

Permits and Variances for Solar Panels, Calculation of Impervious Cover (Maryland)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

In May 2012 Maryland enacted legislation stating that any calculation of "impervious surface" required by state or local authorities as part of a permit or variance relating to zoning, construction...

247

Optimal coordinate sensor placements for estimating mean and variance components of variation sources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in diagnosing dimensional variation sources in assembly processes. Sensitivity indices of detecting process mean and variance components are defined as the design criteria and are derived in terms of process layout and sensor deployment information. Exchange...

Liu, Qinyan

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

248

Variance reduction and outlier identification for IDDQ testing of integrated chips using principal component analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of an industrial chip fabricated in 130 nm technology. It is shown that the proposed method achieves significant variance reduction and identifies many outliers that escape identification by other established techniques. For example, it identifies many...

Balasubramanian, Vijay

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

249

Real-time bulk-motion-correction free Doppler variance optical coherence tomography for choroidal capillary vasculature imaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The effect of sample movement on the color Doppler andmotion effect can be neglected here. The Doppler variance

Liu, Gangjun; Qi, Wenjuan; Yu, Lingfeng; Chen, Zhongping

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

A column based variance analysis approach to static reservoir model upgridding  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A COLUMN BASED VARIANCE ANALYSIS APPROACH TO STATIC RESERVOIR MODEL UPGRIDDING A Thesis by MATTHEW BRANDON TALBERT Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 2008 Major Subject: Petroleum Engineering A COLUMN BASED VARIANCE ANALYSIS APPROACH TO STATIC RESERVOIR MODEL UPGRIDDING A Thesis by MATTHEW BRANDON TALBERT Submitted to the Office...

Talbert, Matthew Brandon

2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

251

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

252

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

253

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

254

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

255

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

256

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

257

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

258

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

263

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

264

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

265

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

267

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holt’s additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corberán-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermúdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

272

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

274

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

275

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

277

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

279

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

285

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

286

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Héctor Rodríguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

289

Variance Analysis of Wind and Natural Gas Generation under Different Market Structures: Some Observations  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Variance Analysis of Wind and Variance Analysis of Wind and Natural Gas Generation under Different Market Structures: Some Observations Brian Bush, Thomas Jenkin, David Lipowicz, and Douglas J. Arent National Renewable Energy Laboratory Roger Cooke Resources for the Future Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-52790 January 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Variance Analysis of Wind and Natural Gas Generation under Different Market Structures: Some Observations Brian Bush, Thomas Jenkin, David Lipowicz,

290

Towards Optimal Measurement of Power Spectra I: Minimum Variance Pair Weighting and the Fisher Matrix  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This is the first of a pair of papers which address the problem of measuring the unredshifted power spectrum in optimal fashion from a survey of galaxies, with arbitrary geometry, for Gaussian or non-Gaussian fluctuations, in real or redshift space. In this first paper, that pair weighting is derived which formally minimizes the expected variance of the unredshifted power spectrum windowed over some arbitrary kernel. The inverse of the covariance matrix of minimum variance estimators of windowed power spectra is the Fisher information matrix, which plays a central role in establishing optimal estimators. Actually computing the minimum variance pair window and the Fisher matrix in a real survey still presents a formidable numerical problem, so here a perturbation series solution is developed. The properties of the Fisher matrix evaluated according to the approximate method suggested here are investigated in more detail in the second paper.

A. J. S. Hamilton

1997-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

291

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

292

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

An evaluation of forecasting methods for aircraft non-routine maintenance material demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Aircraft maintenance can be divided into routine and non-routine activities. Material demand associated with non-routine maintenance is typically intermittent or lumpy: it has a large variance in frequency and quantity. Consequently, this type of demand is hard to predict. This paper introduces a method to collect time series datasets for aircraft non-routine maintenance material demand. Non-routine material consumption is linked to scheduled maintenance tasks to gain insight in demand patterns. A structural part selection of the Boeing 737NG fleet of an aviation partner has been sampled to generate various test cases. Subsequently, various forecasting methods are applied to these test cases and evaluated using various accuracy metrics. For the small time series datasets associated with non-routine maintenance, exponentially weighted moving average (EMA) outperformed smoothing methods such as Croston's method (CR) and the Syntetos-Boylan approximation (SBA). To validate the practical applicability of EMA for non-routine maintenance material demand, the method has been applied and verified in the prediction of actual demand for a separate maintenance C-check.

Maarten Zorgdrager; Wim J.C. Verhagen; Richard Curran

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

295

Let the Exhorter Speak: Black Masculinity and the Slave Narrative Tradition  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

“LET THE EXHORTER SPEAK”: BLACK MASCULINITY AND THE SLAVE NARRATIVE TRADITION BY C2008 Jeffery Dwayne Mack Submitted to the graduate degree program in English and the Graduate Faculty of the University of Kansas in partial... ________________________________ William J. Harris ________________________________ Frank Farmer ________________________________ Randal Jelks Date Defended________________________________ ii The Dissertation Committee for Jeffery D. Mack certifies...

Mack, Jeffery Dwayne

2009-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

296

Coupled neural systems underlie the production and comprehension of naturalistic narrative speech  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coupled neural systems underlie the production and comprehension of naturalistic narrative speech with the comprehension system. Moreover, by directly comparing the neural activity time courses during production, exposing the surprising extent of shared processes across the two systems. speech production | speech

Hasson, Uri

297

Designing a Narrative-Based Audio Only 3D Game Engine Timothy Roden *, Ian Parberry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Designing a Narrative-Based Audio Only 3D Game Engine Timothy Roden *, Ian Parberry Department. Keywords Audio, Game Engine, Virtual Environment, Speech 1. INTRODUCTION Since the introduction of Computer Science & Engineering University of North Texas, P.O. Box 311366, Denton, Texas 76203 http

Parberry, Ian

298

Variance-sensitive Clearance Markdown Pricing Optimal clearance-markdown pricing of retail goods using  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Variance-sensitive Clearance Markdown Pricing Optimal clearance-markdown pricing of retail goods-markdown period of a retail product. Much of the literature assumes knowledge of reservation prices to solve such a problem. However, practicing retailers are more comfortable with the notion of consumers' demand

Gosavi, Abhijit

299

Measuring uncertainty in estimates of biodiversity loss: The example of biodiversity intactness variance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of practical indices to monitor rates of biodiversity change in terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystemsMeasuring uncertainty in estimates of biodiversity loss: The example of biodiversity intactness online 17 March 2008 Keywords: Biodiversity Indicator Uncertainty Variance A B S T R A C T Developing

Jackson, Robert B.

300

Longitudinal Data Analysis Using Multilevel Linear Modeling (MLM): Fitting an Optimal Variance-Covariance Structure  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LONGITUDINAL DATA ANALYSIS USING MULTILEVEL LINEAR MODELING (MLM): FITTING AN OPTIMAL VARIANCE-COVARIANCE STRUCTURE A Dissertation by YUAN-HSUAN LEE Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2010 Major Subject: Educational Psychology Longitudinal Data Analysis Using Multilevel Linear Modeling (MLM...

Lee, Yuan-Hsuan

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

PathVar: analysis of gene and protein expression variance in cellular pathways using microarray data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......variance using a parametric T-test and a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U-test (or respectively, an F-test and Kruskal-Wallis test for multi-class data). Alternatively, in the unsupervised analysis mode, three feature rankings are obtained......

Enrico Glaab; Reinhard Schneider

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Visual Servoing using the Sum of Conditional Variance Bertrand Delabarre and Eric Marchand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Visual Servoing using the Sum of Conditional Variance Bertrand Delabarre and Eric Marchand Abstract (occurrence of specularities, lighting B. Delabarre an E. Marchand are with Universit´e de Rennes 1, IRISA, INRIA, Lagadic team, Rennes, France {bertrand.delabarre,marchand}@irisa.fr direction non constant wrt

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

303

Variance Decomposition Sensitivity Analysis of a Passive Residual Heat Removal System Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for improved reliability and safety. Sensitivity analysis can provide relevant insights on the responseVariance Decomposition Sensitivity Analysis of a Passive Residual Heat Removal System Model YU Yua Removal system (RHRs) in the High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR). Keywords: Uncertainty

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

304

Long-Memory Processes, the Allan Variance and Wavelets D. B. Percival  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Long-Memory Processes, the Allan Variance and Wavelets by D. B. Percival and P. Guttorp Applied, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 #12;Abstract ­ Long term memory has frequently been observed in physical time series. Sta- tistical theory for long term memory stochastic processes is radically different

Percival, Don

305

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

307

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

313

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

National and Racial Identity and the Desire for Expansion: A Study of American Travel Narratives, 1790-1850  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on two issues: (1) National and racial identity, and (2) Territorial, cultural, and capitalist expansionism. National and racial identity construction is examined by clarifying how the narratives’ underlying voices—the National Symbolic and the Racial...

Jeong, Jin Man

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

316

The use of laser therapy for dental implant surface decontamination: a narrative review of in vitro studies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The aim of this narrative review was to critically evaluate in vitro studies assessing the efficacy of lasers in the bacterial decontamination of titanium implant surfaces. The MEDLINE, Web of Knowledge and Em...

Marina Salah Kamel; Amardeep Khosa; Andrew Tawse-Smith…

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

318

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

320

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 12–24-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning… (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

333

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

334

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Minimum variance control of organic Rankine cycle based waste heat recovery  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, an online self-tuning generalized minimum variance (GMV) controller is proposed for a 100 KW waste heat recovery system with organic Rankine cycle (ORC). The ORC process model is formulated by the controlled autoregressive moving average (CARMA) model whose parameters are identified using the recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm with forgetting factor. The generalized minimum variance algorithm is applied to regulate ORC based waste heat recovery system. The contributions of this work are twofold: (1) the proposed control strategy is formulated under the data-driven framework, which does not need the precise mathematic model; (2) this proposed method is applied to handle tracking set-point variations and process disturbances by improved minimum objective GMV function. The performance of GMV controller is compared with the PID controller. The simulation results show that the proposed strategy can achieve satisfactory set-point tracking and disturbance rejection performance.

Guolian Hou; Shanshan Bi; Mingming Lin; Jianhua Zhang; Jinliang Xu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents – a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Queering the Narrative: Life Writing in the Bruce McKinney Collection  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

’s names appear again and again, making it possible to track their activities between social events, organization involvement, and community activism. Rob Gutzman, Steve Wheeler, Dale Schultz, Kristi Parker, and numerous other names all occur throughout... narrative. I was already aware that the Bruce McKinney Collection contained the papers of two other men, Rob Gutzman and Steve Wheeler. However, speaking with Bruce McKinney confirmed the composite nature of the collection; multiple people who had passed...

Thomas, Susan Kay

2012-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

340

Countering the Master Narrative: Muslims and Islam in Science Fiction, Fantasy, and Comics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?Countering the Master Narrative: Muslims and Islam in Science Fiction, Fantasy and Comics.? Rebecca Hankins Science Fiction Symposium-April 15, 2010 The influence that science fiction, fantasy and comic literature has and continues to have... Nights to the time-travel stories of the 19th century Egyptian, al-Muwaylihi, to the obvious borrowing of Islamic themes by contemporary writers, movie scripts, and music. Rebecca Carol Johnson, Richard Maxwell, and Katie Trumpener?s article, The Arabian...

Hankins, Rebecca; Hankins, Rebecca

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Countering the Master Narrative: Muslims and Islam in Science Fiction, Fantasy, and Comics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?Countering the Master Narrative: Muslims and Islam in Science Fiction, Fantasy and Comics.? Rebecca Hankins Science Fiction Symposium-April 15, 2010 The influence that science fiction, fantasy and comic literature has and continues to have... Nights to the time-travel stories of the 19th century Egyptian, al-Muwaylihi, to the obvious borrowing of Islamic themes by contemporary writers, movie scripts, and music. Rebecca Carol Johnson, Richard Maxwell, and Katie Trumpener?s article, The Arabian...

Hankins, Rebecca

2010-08-16T23:59:59.000Z

342

Private Narratives and Infant Views: Iconizing 1970s Militancy in Contemporary Argentine Cinema  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Private Narratives and Infant Views: Iconizing 1970s Militancy in Contemporary Argentine Cinema Shot in 2011 and released in September 2012, Infancia clandestina, by Argentine director Benjamín Ávila, has already been sold to over twenty... relies on a privatized and archaic image of the disappeared activist, which ultimately transforms 1970s militancy in an iconic sign. The above-mentioned readings are only accurate if we accept two important omissions: if we consider that the figure...

Garibotto, Veró nica

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

344

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

345

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

346

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

347

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

348

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

349

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

350

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

351

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

352

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

353

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

354

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

355

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

356

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

357

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

358

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

359

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

360

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

362

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

363

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

365

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

366

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

367

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

368

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

369

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

370

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

371

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

372

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

373

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

375

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

376

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

377

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

378

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

379

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

380

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

382

Minimum variance hedging with bivariate regime-switching model for WTI crude oil  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-regime bivariate Markov regime-switching model to estimate the daily time-varying minimum variance hedge ratios for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and evaluates its in- and out-of-sample hedging performances with two-regime model, CC-GARCH, TVC-GARCH, and OLS models. Empirical results reveal that the four-regime Markov switching model outperforms the other models for both in- and out-of-sample hedging performance. Based on Hansen’s SPA test (2005), the four-regime model significantly outperforms the other models for only in-sample hedging.

Jui-Cheng Hung; Yi-Hsien Wang; Matthew C. Chang; Kuang-Hsun Shih; Hsiu-Hsueh Kao

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

A continuous traffic study - estimation of population parameters and the variance of the estimated parameters  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. 32 5. 88 6. 36 1. 68 13 TABLE 3. 2 ESTIMATED TOTAL 'fONS BY CARRiER Carrier Sample Size ToGs Standard Error Coefficient Variation (/) Maximum Variation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 '7 l 22.... 37 14. 71 13. 33 12. 48 18. 62 6. 26 7. 07 l. 72 15 3. 4 Traffic Characteristics for a Group of Carri rs The estimation of totals and estimated variances for a group of carriers is merely an extension of formula 3. 1 and 3. 3. In this case...

Dresser, George Brayton

1969-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/ Research Highlight Predicting how atmospheric aerosols influence cloud formation and the resulting feedback to climate is a challenge that limits the accuracy of atmospheric models. This is especially true in the Arctic, where mixed-phase (both ice- and liquid-based) clouds are frequently observed, but the processes that determine their composition are poorly understood. To obtain a closer look at what makes up Arctic clouds, scientists characterized cloud droplets and ice crystals collected at the North Slope of Alaska as part of the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) field study

385

Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the out-predictability of fundamentals and forecast combinations. By adopting a panel-based specification, the paper obtains several interesting results. First, the Taylor-rule-based fundamental is the best among the four different fundamentals under consideration in out-of-sample contests. It provides strong evidence to out-predict the random walk over the PBW period. Second, relative to a single-equation prediction, panel predictions are generally able to enhance the statistical significance of beating the random walk. Third, combining forecasts from different fundamentals that have relatively strong out-predictability at a specific horizon does enhance both the statistical and economic significances of beating the random walk for the PBW period at short horizons.

Jyh-Lin Wu; Yi-Chiuan Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Cosmic Variance and Its Effect on the Luminosity Function Determination in Deep High z Surveys  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study cosmic variance in deep high redshift surveys and its influence on the determination of the luminosity function for high redshift galaxies. For several survey geometries relevant for HST and JWST instruments, we characterize the distribution of the galaxy number counts. This is obtained by means of analytic estimates via the two point correlation function in extended Press-Schechter theory as well as by using synthetic catalogs extracted from N-body cosmological simulations of structure formation. We adopt a simple luminosity - dark halo mass relation to investigate the environment effects on the fitting of the luminosity function. We show that in addition to variations of the normalization of the luminosity function, a steepening of its slope is also expected in underdense fields, similarly to what is observed within voids in the local universe. Therefore, to avoid introducing artificial biases, caution must be taken when attempting to correct for field underdensity, such as in the case of HST UDF i-dropout sample, which exhibits a deficit of bright counts with respect to the average counts in GOODS. A public version of the cosmic variance calculator based on the two point correlation function integration is made available on the web.

M. Trenti; M. Stiavelli

2007-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

387

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

388

Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONTINUOUS MODEL UPDATING AND FORECASTING FOR A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR A Thesis by HISHAM HASSAN S. ALMOHAMMADI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... guidance and support throughout my time here in Texas A&M University. I also would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Eduardo Gildin and Dr. Michael Sherman, for providing valued insight and help during the course of this research. I am indebted...

Almohammadi, Hisham

2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

389

NOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.S.D EPARTMENT OF COM M ERCE How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? #12;Well you put a truck in orbit? So it can carry all the things needed to make a working weather satelliteNOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster. I need to see clouds and storms from way up

Waliser, Duane E.

390

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

391

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIAÂ’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

392

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. Minh Le Minh Le Program Manager, Solar Program What Do These Projects Do? The Energy Department is investing $8 million in two cutting-edge projects to increase the accuracy of solar forecasting at sub-hourly,

393

Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: A hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A hybrid mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting model combining both least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and auto-regressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single LSSVM.

Xing Yan; Nurul A. Chowdhury

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods an...

Baran, Sándor

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Comparison of Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce and AVITAS market forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasts of future world demand for commercial aircraft are published fairly regularly by Airbus and Boeing. Other players in the aviation business, Rolls Royce and AVITAS, have also published forecasts in the past year. This article analyses and compares the methods used and assumptions made by the several forecasters. It concludes that there are wide areas of similarity in the approaches used and highlights the most significant area of divergence.

Ralph Anker

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to measure various aspects of the California redwood lumber industry. The first sought to explain the economic struc- ture of the short-run market for redwood lumber by preparing short-range forecasts of price, new orders, shipments, produc- tion, stocks... regression coefficients (20) . The second study was directed at developing a short-run forecast of new orders for redwood lumber (21) . Several forecasting techniques were developed, but econometrics, i. e. , multiple regression analysis, provided...

Jackson, Ben Douglas

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

398

No-migration variance petition: Draft. Volume 4, Appendices DIF, GAS, GCR (Volume 1)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Department of Energy is responsible for the disposition of transuranic (TRU) waste generated by national defense-related activities. Approximately 2.6 million cubic feet of the se waste have been generated and are stored at various facilities across the country. The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), was sited and constructed to meet stringent disposal requirements. In order to permanently dispose of TRU waste, the DOE has elected to petition the US EPA for a variance from the Land Disposal Restrictions of RCRA. This document fulfills the reporting requirements for the petition. This report is volume 4 of the petition which presents details about the transport characteristics across drum filter vents and polymer bags; gas generation reactions and rates during long-term WIPP operation; and geological characterization of the WIPP site.

NONE

1995-05-31T23:59:59.000Z

399

Net-baryon number variance and kurtosis within nonequilibrium chiral fluid dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the variance and kurtosis of the net-baryon number in a fluid dynamical model for heavy-ion collisions. It is based on an effective chiral model with dilatons for the strong coupling regime of QCD. Taking into account spinodal instabilities, we demonstrate that this model exhibits a diverging quark number susceptibility and kurtosis all along the spinodal lines of the first-order phase transition, with a change of universality class at the critical end point. During the (3+1) dimensional expansion of a hot and dense fireball, instabilities are created by fluctuations in the explicitly propagated chiral and dilaton field. We find a clear enhancement of event-by-event fluctuations of the baryon number at the critical point and first-order phase transition in comparison with an evolution through the crossover region.

Herold, Christoph; Yan, Yupeng; Kobdaj, Chinorat

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Adjoint and forward Monte Carlo coupled weight window generator for variance reduction  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Among the various variance-reduction methods in Monte Carlo calculations, one of the most widely used techniques is the weight window method. The MCNP code provides a weight window generator (WWG) option. In WWG of MCNP, the importance of a cell is estimated by the virtual sampling method during normal Monte Carlo calculation. But, the performance of WWG tends to deteriorate in deep penetration problems. To enhance the performance of the weight window method, importance estimation by the deterministic adjoint calculation has been proposed. However, this approach is possible only when the related deterministic code and interface program are available. The midway coupling method is a surface tally technique that calculates detector response based on the reciprocity theorem, but it does not provide an importance generator. In this paper, a new weight window generation method, called adjoint and forward Monte Carlo coupled WWG, is proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the current WWG in MCNP and the deterministic adjoint calculation method.

Ahn, J.G.; Cho, N.Z.

2000-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

better forecasts, wind energy plant operators and industry professionals can ensure wind turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers....

402

Intra-hour wind power variability assessment using the conditional range metric : quantification, forecasting and applications.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research presented herein concentrates on the quantification, assessment and forecasting of intra-hour wind power variability. Wind power is intrinsically variable and, due to the… (more)

Boutsika, Thekla

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Crude oil prices and petroleum inventories : remedies for a broken oil price forecasting model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The empirical relationship between crude oil prices and petroleum inventories has been exploited in a number of short-term oil price forecasting models. Some of the… (more)

Grimstad, Dan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Study and implementation of mesoscale weather forecasting models in the wind industry.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? As the wind industry is developing, it is asking for more reliable short-term wind forecasts to better manage the wind farms’ operations and electricity… (more)

Jourdier, Bénédicte

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is critical for coastal California solar forecasting.   affecting solar irradiance in southern California.   solar  photovoltaic generation (the southern California 

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical energy forecasting Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

of PV energy production using... Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer... , Detlev Heinemann Energy and Semiconductor...

408

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The DOE Wind Program has issued a Notice of Intent for a funding opportunity, tentatively titled Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.

409

Comparison of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US, Canada and Europe  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This article combines and discusses three independent validations of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) multi-day forecast models that were conducted in the US, Canada and Europe. All forecast models are based directly or indirectly on numerical weather prediction (NWP). Two models are common to the three validation efforts – the ECMWF global model and the GFS-driven WRF mesoscale model – and allow general observations: (1) the GFS-based WRF- model forecasts do not perform as well as global forecast-based approaches such as ECMWF and (2) the simple averaging of models’ output tends to perform better than individual models.

Richard Perez; Elke Lorenz; Sophie Pelland; Mark Beauharnois; Glenn Van Knowe; Karl Hemker Jr.; Detlev Heinemann; Jan Remund; Stefan C. Müller; Wolfgang Traunmüller; Gerald Steinmauer; David Pozo; Jose A. Ruiz-Arias; Vicente Lara-Fanego; Lourdes Ramirez-Santigosa; Martin Gaston-Romero; Luis M. Pomares

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

How international oil and gas companies respond to local content policies in petroleum-producing developing countries: A narrative enquiry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper uses narrative analysis to critically examine the business practices used by five international oil and gas companies (IOCs) (Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Total) to respond to local content policies in petroleum-producing developing countries (Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Indonesia, Yemen and Indonesia) during the period 2000–2012. The business practices include the formulation of local content strategies that are implemented through programmes and initiatives aimed at developing and using host country suppliers and workforce. Such practices and the narratives used to communicate them implicitly reflect the context in which the effectiveness of local content policies on economic development can be assessed. By comparing and contrasting the narratives across the five \\{IOCs\\} in relation to the wider literature, four emergent narrative strategies justifying the business practices of \\{IOCs\\} are identified and discussed. They include: (1) direct engagement to renegotiate local content requirements with governments, (2) legal compliance framework, (3) the business case for local content strategies, and (4) corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives. The conclusion considers the policy implications of these findings for local content development in petroleum-producing developing countries.

Michael Zisuh Ngoasong

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Columbia River Basin Accords -Narrative Proposal Form 1 FY 2008-2009 F&W Program Accords (MOA) Proposal Review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

will work closely and in collaboration with the Upper Columbia Salmon Recovery Board, BPA, Washington State&W Program Accords (MOA) Proposal Review Narrative Table 1. Proposal Metadata Project Number 2009-002-00 Proposer Bob Rose; Yakama Nation Fisheries Resources Program Short Description A Status and Trend Annual

412

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Data transforms with exponential smoothing methods of forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, transforms are used with exponential smoothing, in the quest for better forecasts. Two types of transforms are explored: those which are applied to a time series directly, and those which are applied indirectly to the prediction errors. The various transforms are tested on a large number of time series from the M3 competition, and ANOVA is applied to the results. We find that the non-transformed time series is significantly worse than some transforms on the monthly data, and on a distribution-based performance measure for both annual and quarterly data.

Adrian N. Beaumont

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

A Multiscale Wind and Power Forecast System for Wind Farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A large scale introduction of wind energy in power sector causes a number of challenges for electricity market and wind farm operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in the wind power generation in their scheduling and trading decisions. Numerical wind power forecasting has been identified as an important tool to address the increasing variability and uncertainty and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetration. It has been observed that even when the wind magnitude and direction recorded at a wind mast are the same, the corresponding energy productions can vary significantly. In this work we try to introduce improvements by developing a more accurate wind forecast system for a complex terrain. The system has been operational for eight months for the Bessaker Wind Farm located in the middle part of Norway in a very complex terrain. Operational power curves have also been derived from data analysis. Although the methodology explained has been developed for an onshore wind farm, it can very well be utilized in an offshore context also.

Adil Rasheed; Jakob Kristoffer Süld; Trond Kvamsdal

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

renewables hard week: - small load - large renewables #12;Why does variability matter? Source: Andrew Mills.com/downloads/Session%205- 5_Sandia%20National%20Labs_Stein.pdf; Mills, A. et al. LBNL-2855E #12;PV Systems in San Diego Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14

Homes, Christopher C.

416

To Tell the Truth: Management Forecasts in Periods of Accounting Fraud Stephen P. Baginski*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To Tell the Truth: Management Forecasts in Periods of Accounting Fraud Stephen P. Baginski of fraud firms' management earnings forecasts to the changes observed in a sample of control firms matched on industry, size, and fraud risk. We find that, although managers of control firms significantly increase

O'Toole, Alice J.

417

The Coefficients of Correlation and Determination as Measures of performance in Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper is concerned with the use of the coefficient of correlation (CoC) and the coefficient of determination (CoD) as performance measures in forecast verification. Aspects of forecasting performance that are measured—and not measured (i.e., ...

Allan H. Murphy

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Employment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support Services Industries  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that are outperforming the industry average. Additional research shows that the industry is reactive to manufacturingEmployment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support, the primary metals manufacturing industry (NAICS 331000) employment in Ohio is forecasted to decline by 21

Illinois at Chicago, University of

419

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical T.S. Nielsen1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical Methods T.S. Nielsen1 , H. Madsen1 , H considered in the ANEMOS project for short-term fore- casting of wind power. The total procedure typically in for prediction of wind power or wind speed, estimating the uncertainty of the wind power forecast, and finally

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

420

Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process. Abdou Kâ Diongue this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000 - De- cember 31, 2002 and we; Electricity prices; Forecast; GIGARCH process. Corresponding author: Universite Gaston Berger de Saint

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process and active learning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity price forecasting is essential for the market participants in their decision making. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such forecasting cannot be guaranteed due to the high variability of the price data. For this reason, in many cases, rather than merely point forecasting results, market participants are more interested in the probabilistic price forecasting results, i.e., the prediction intervals of the electricity price. Focusing on this issue, this paper proposes a new model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. This model is based on the active learning technique and the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process (VHGP). It provides the heteroscedastic Gaussian prediction intervals, which effectively quantify the heteroscedastic uncertainties associated with the price data. Because the high computational effort of VHGP hinders its application to the large-scale electricity price forecasting tasks, we design an active learning algorithm to select a most informative training subset from the whole available training set. By constructing the forecasting model on this smaller subset, the computational efforts can be significantly reduced. In this way, the practical applicability of the proposed model is enhanced. The forecasting performance and the computational time of the proposed model are evaluated using the real-world electricity price data, which is obtained from the ANEM, PJM, and New England ISO.

Peng Kou; Deliang Liang; Lin Gao; Jianyong Lou

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Ensemble Forecasting of Volcanic Sulfur Emissions in Hawai'i Andre Pattantyus and Steven Businger  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Hawai'i. The probabilistic forecast products show uncertainty in pollutant concentrations of pollution known as "vog" after volcanic smog. Prevailing northeast trade winds in Hawaii advectEnsemble Forecasting of Volcanic Sulfur Emissions in Hawai'i Andre Pattantyus and Steven Businger

Businger, Steven

423

Improving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators Department of Computer Science  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.32%, and a reduction in error from baseline models by up to 53%. Keywords-energy forecast models; energy informatics I that physically char- acterize a building, or are based on measured building performance data. Smart meters have analysis and machine learning methods can be used to mine sensor data and extract forecast models

Prasanna, Viktor K.

424

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update - April 2013 Anil Puri & Mira Farka Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton U.S. Economic Outlook to the forecast and a are-up in the region can easily derail the global economic recovery. Nonetheless

de Lijser, Peter

425

Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

from numerical weather prediction models, which is based on a state-of-the-art circular-processing techniques for forecasts from numerical weather prediction models tend to become ineffective or inapplicableBias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction Le

Washington at Seattle, University of

426

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model independently of the CTM. The NWP output is typically archived

Dacre, Helen

427

Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia CHERMELLE ENGEL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-resolution grid. Local and in- ternational numerical weather prediction model inputs are found to have coarse by numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts. As NWP models improve, public weather forecasting University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia ELIZABETH E. EBERT Centre for Australia Weather

Ebert, Beth

428

HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1. INTRODUCTION Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are widely used by avalanche practitioners. Their de

Jamieson, Bruce

429

Comparing NWS PoP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper, the authors verify probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS), The Weather Channel (TWC), and CustomWeather (CW). The n-day-ahead forecasts, where n ranges from 1 to 3 for the NWS, ...

J. Eric Bickel; Eric Floehr; Seong Dae Kim

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

Genton, Marc G.

432

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyses of regional mod- eling with Polar WRF have been performed with results compared to selected localEvaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a highresolution regional scale model, is used to simulate

Howat, Ian M.

433

Dynamics and Structure of Forecast Error Covariance in the Core of a Developing Hurricane  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of cloud-resolving forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to study error gradients of wind, temperature, and pressure to be concentrated farther from the mean vortex center share a similar axisymmetric transition about the origin, while maintaining a large degree of local

434

Atmospheric and seeing forecast: WRF model validation with in situ measurements at ORM  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......orographic data to initialize WRF. 6 CONCLUSION For the first time, the WRF model, coupled with the...used to forecast not only local meteorological parameters...relative humidity and wind speed at ground level...simultaneous forecasts, the WRF-in situ instrument agreement......

C. Giordano; J. Vernin; H. Vázquez Ramió; C. Muñoz-Tuñón; A. M. Varela; H. Trinquet

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Coupling and evaluating gas/particle mass transfer treatments for aerosol simulation and forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coupling and evaluating gas/particle mass transfer treatments for aerosol simulation and forecast hindcasting and forecasting. The lack of an efficient yet accurate gas/particle mass transfer treatment December 2007; accepted 21 February 2008; published 12 June 2008. [1] Simulating gas/particle mass transfer

Jacobson, Mark

436

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans. Introduction [2] Because water vapor is the most significant green- house gas and it exhibits a strong

Allan, Richard P.

437

1 Ozone pollution forecasting 3 Herve Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Contents 1 Ozone pollution forecasting 3 Herv´e Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda. 1;1 Ozone pollution forecasting using conditional mean and conditional quantiles with functional covariates Herv´e Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda. 1.1 Introduction Prediction of Ozone pollution

Crambes, Christophe

438

Study on technology of electromagnetic radiation of sensitive index to forecast the coal and gas hazards  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Hazard forecast of coal and gas outburst was an important step of comprehensive outburst-prevention measures. Aiming at the manifestation of disaster threatens such as the gas outburst to mine safety, this paper explained the forecasting principles of electromagnetic radiation to coal and gas outburst, by the electromagnetic radiation theory of coal rock damage; it studied the characteristics and rules of electromagnetic radiation during the deformation and fracture process of loaded coal rocks, and confirmed forecast sensitive indexes of electromagnetic radiation as well as its critical values by signals of electromagnetic radiation. By applying EMR monitoring technology in the field, outburst prediction and forecast tests to the characteristics of electromagnetic radiation during the driving process was taken, and figured out the hazard prediction values by using forecast methods of static and dynamic trend.

Yuliang Wu; Wen Li

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Univariate forecasting of day-ahead hourly electricity demand in the northern grid of India  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term electricity demand forecasts (minutes to several hours ahead) have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive energy markets. The issue is particularly important for India as it has recently set up a power exchange (PX), which has been operating on day-ahead hourly basis. In this study, an attempt has been made to forecast day-ahead hourly demand of electricity in the northern grid of India using univariate time-series forecasting techniques namely multiplicative seasonal ARIMA and Holt-Winters multiplicative exponential smoothing (ES). In-sample forecasts reveal that ARIMA models, except in one case, outperform ES models in terms of lower RMSE, MAE and MAPE criteria. We may conclude that linear time-series models works well to explain day-ahead hourly demand forecasts in the northern grid of India. The findings of the study will immensely help the players in the upcoming power market in India.

Sajal Ghosh

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Price volatility forecasting using artificial neural networks in emerging electricity markets  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting, it may be premature to rely solely on the hourly price forecast. The volatility of electricity price should also be analysed to provide additional insight on price forecasting. This paper proposes a price volatility module to analyse electricity price spikes and study the probability distribution of electricity price. Two methods are used to study the probability distribution of electricity price: the analytical method and the ANN method. Furthermore, ANN method is used to study the impact of line limits, line outages, generator outages, load pattern and bidding strategy on short term price forecasting, in addition to sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which these factors impact price forecasting. Data used in this study are spot electricity prices from California market in the period which includes the crisis months where extreme volatility was observed.

Ahmad F. Al-Ajlouni; Hatim Y. Yamin; Ali Eyadeh

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Comparison Of Hybrid Methods For Global Variance Reduction In Shielding Calculations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For Monte Carlo shielding problems that calculate a mesh tally over the entire problem, the relative uncertainties computed for each voxel can vary widely. This can lead to unacceptably long run times in order to reduce the uncertainties in all areas of the problem to a reasonably low level. Hybrid methods using estimates from deterministic calculations to create importance maps for variance reduction in Monte Carlo calculations have been successfully used to optimize the calculation of specific tallies. For the global problem, several methods have been proposed that create importance maps that distribute Monte Carlo particles in such a way as to achieve a more uniform distribution of relative uncertainty across the problem. The goal is to compute a mesh tally with nearly the same relative uncertainties in the low flux/dose areas as in the high flux/dose areas. Methods based on only forward deterministic estimates and methods using both forward and adjoint deterministic methods have been implemented the SCALE/MAVRIC package and have been compared against each other by computing global mesh tallies on several representative shielding problems. Methods using both forward and adjoint estimates provide better performance for computing more uniform relative uncertainties across a global mesh tally.

Peplow, Douglas E. [ORNL

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Variance, Skewness & Kurtosis: results from the APM Cluster Redshift Survey and model predictions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We estimate the variance $\\xibar_2$, the skewness $\\xibar_3$ and the kurtosis $\\xibar_4$ in the distribution of density fluctuations in a complete sample from the APM Cluster Redshift Survey with 339 clusters and a mean depth $ \\sim 250\\Mpc$. We are able to measure the statistics of fluctuations in spheres of radius $R \\simeq 5-80 \\Mpc$, with reasonable errorbars. The statistics in the cluster distribution follow the hierarchical pattern $\\xibar_J=S_J~\\xibar_2^{J-1}$ with $S_J$ roughly constant, $S_3 \\simeq 2$ and $S_4 \\sim 8$. We analyse the distribution of clusters taken from N-body simulations of different dark matter models. The results are compared with an alternative method of simulating clusters which uses the truncated Zel'dovich approximation. We argue that this alternative method is not reliable enough for making quantitative predictions of $\\xibar$. The N-body simulation results follow similar hierarchical relations to the observations, with $S_J$ almost unaffected by redshift distortions from peculiar motions. The standard $\\Omega=1$ Cold Dark Matter (CDM) model is inconsistent with either the second, third or fourth order statistics at all scales. However both a hybrid Mixed Dark Matter model and a low density CDM variant agree with the $\\xibar_J$ observations.

Enrique Gaztañaga; Rupert Croft; Gavin Dalton

1995-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

443

Memorandum, CH2M HG Idaho, LLC, Request for Variance to Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations part 851, "Worker Safety and Health"  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

CH2M HG Idaho, LLC, Request for Variance to Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations part 851, "Worker Safety and Health"

444

A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the Analytic Network Process  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study applies the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to forecast the sales volume of printers in Taiwan for adjusting the recycling and treatment fee as an incentive for recycling industries. When historical data are lacking and when a broad spectrum ... Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Analytic Network Process, Dependence and feedback, Forecasting-related applications, Judgmental forecasting, Management decision making

Hsu-Shih Shih; E. Stanley Lee; Shun-Hsiang Chuang; Chiau-Ching Chen

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

446

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height ADAM J. DEPPE AND WILLIAM A. GALLUS JR.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height ADAM J. DEPPE AND WILLIAM A in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model ensemble members for forecasting wind speed. A second configuration using three random perturbations

McCalley, James D.

447

A data variance technique for automated despiking of magnetotelluric data with a remote reference  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The magnetotelluric method employs co-located surface measurements of electric and magnetic fields to infer the local electrical structure of the earth. The frequency-dependent 'apparent resistivity' curves can be inaccurate at long periods if input data are contaminated - even when robust remote reference techniques are employed. Data despiking prior to processing can result in significantly more reliable estimates of long period apparent resistivities. This paper outlines a two-step method of automatic identification and replacement for spike-like contamination of magnetotelluric data; based on the simultaneity of natural electric and magnetic field variations at distant sites. This simultaneity is exploited both to identify windows in time when the array data are compromised, and to generate synthetic data that replace observed transient noise spikes. In the first step, windows in data time series containing spikes are identified via intersite comparison of channel 'activity' - such as the variance of differenced data within each window. In the second step, plausible data for replacement of flagged windows is calculated by Wiener filtering coincident data in clean channels. The Wiener filters - which express the time-domain relationship between various array channels - are computed using an uncontaminated segment of array training data. Examples are shown where the algorithm is applied to artificially contaminated data, and to real field data. In both cases all spikes are successfully identified. In the case of implanted artificial noise, the synthetic replacement time series are very similar to the original recording. In all cases, apparent resistivity and phase curves obtained by processing the despiked data are much improved over curves obtained from raw data.

Kappler, K.

2011-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

448

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

449

SLCA/IP Hydro Generation Estimates Month Forecast Generation  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

5/2013 9:06 5/2013 9:06 SLCA/IP Hydro Generation Estimates Month Forecast Generation less losses (kWh) Less Proj. Use (kWh) Net Generation (kWh) SHP Deliveries (kWh) Firming Purchases (kWh) Generation above SHP Level (kWH) 2013-Oct 232,469,911 13,095,926 219,373,985 398,608,181 192,676,761 - 2013-Nov 211,770,451 2,989,074 208,781,376 408,041,232 214,204,345 - 2013-Dec 252,579,425 3,106,608 249,472,817 455,561,848 221,545,708 - 2014-Jan 337,006,077 3,105,116 333,900,962 463,462,717 139,278,887 -

450

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

451

A hybrid short-term load forecasting with a new data preprocessing framework  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper proposes a hybrid load forecasting framework with a new data preprocessing algorithm to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Bayesian neural network (BNN) is used to predict the load. A discrete wavelet transform (DWT) decomposes the load components into proper levels of resolution determined by an entropy-based criterion. Time series and regression analysis are used to select the best set of inputs among the input candidates. A correlation analysis together with a neural network provides an estimation of the predictions for the forecasting outputs. A standardization procedure is proposed to take into account the correlation estimations of the outputs with their associated input series. The preprocessing algorithm uses the input selection, wavelet decomposition and the proposed standardization to provide the most appropriate inputs for BNNs. Genetic Algorithm (GA) is then used to optimize the weighting coefficients of different forecast components and minimize the forecast error. The performance and accuracy of the proposed short-term load forecasting (STLF) method is evaluated using New England load data. Our results show a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy when compared to the existing state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

M. Ghayekhloo; M.B. Menhaj; M. Ghofrani

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

453

Crimea as Kosovo and Sudetenland: The Peril of Historical Narratives in the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian Crisis.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Crimea as Kosovo and Sudetenland: The Peril of Historical Narratives in the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian Crisis Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014 upended a political order in Eastern Europe that, except Yugoslavia...’ respectively. To Putin, the March 16th, 2014 referendum in Crimea, held under armed Russian supervision, was justified by the precedent of Kosovo, a breakaway province of Serbia that declared independence in 2008. The contrasting Western viewpoint reaches...

Jameson, Robert

2014-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

454

A new improved forecasting method integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new method of integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method to forecast university enrolments. The data of historical enrolments of the University of Alabama shown in Liu et al. (2011) are adopted to illustrate the forecasting process of the proposed method. A comparison has been made with five previous fuzzy time series models. Meanwhile, the mean squared error has also been calculated as the evaluation criterion to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. The empirical analysis shows that the proposed model reflects the fluctuations in fuzzy time series better and provides better overall forecasting results than the five listed previous models.

Peng Ge; Jun Wang; Peiyu Ren; Huafeng Gao; Yuyan Luo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

The neutron-gamma Feynman variance to mean approach: gamma detection and total neutron-gamma detection (theory and practice)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Two versions of the neutron-gamma variance to mean (Feynman-alpha method or Feynman-Y function) formula for either gamma detection only or total neutron-gamma detection, respectively, are derived and compared in this paper. The new formulas have a particular importance for detectors of either gamma photons or detectors sensitive to both neutron and gamma radiation. If applied to a plastic or liquid scintillation detector, the total neutron-gamma detection Feynman-Y expression corresponds to a situation where no discrimination is made between neutrons and gamma particles. The gamma variance to mean formulas are useful when a detector of only gamma radiation is used or when working with a combined neutron-gamma detector at high count rates. The theoretical derivation is based on the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation with inclusion of general reactions and passage intensities for neutrons and gammas, but with the inclusion of prompt reactions only. A one energy group approximation is considered. The comparison of the two different theories is made by using reaction intensities obtained in MCNPX simulations with a simplified geometry for two scintillation detectors and a 252Cf-source enclosed in a steel container. In addition, the variance to mean ratios, neutron, gamma and total neutron-gamma, are evaluated experimentally for a weak 252Cf neutron-gamma source in a steel container, a 137Cs random gamma source and a 22Na correlated gamma source. Due to the focus being on the possibility of using neutron-gamma variance to mean theories for both reactor and safeguards applications, we limited the present study to the general analytical expressions for Feynman-Y formulas.

Dina Chernikova; Kåre Axell; Senada Avdic; Imre Pázsit; Anders Nordlund

2015-01-23T23:59:59.000Z

457

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

458

Annual Energy Outlook 2001-Appendix G: Major Assumptions for the Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasts Forecasts Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/ Scenarios - Appendix Table G1 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Formats - PDF, ZIP) - Appendix Tables - Reference Case - 1998 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report - Entire AEO2001 (PDF) - AEO2001 by Chapters (PDF) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts Related Links bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO2001 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 (Only available on the Web) - Regional and more detailed AEO 2001 Reference Case Results - 1998, 2000 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Homepage bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage Appendix G Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Component Modules Major Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2001

459

PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Jump to: navigation, search Name PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Topics Co-benefits assessment, - Environmental and Biodiversity, - Health, Background analysis Resource Type Publications Website http://www.pnl.gov/atmospheric Country Mexico UN Region Latin America and the Caribbean References PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico[1] PNNL Publications on WRF-Chem modeling in Mexico include: Fast JD, M Shrivastava, RA Zaveri, and JC. Barnard. 2010. "Modeling particulates and direct radiative forcing from urban to synoptic scales downwind of Mexico City." Annual European Geosciences Union Assembly,

460

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

Kim, Guebuem

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Research on the risk forecast model in the coal mine system based on GSPA-Markov  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that system risk is different in different period, the IDO (identification, difference, opposition) change rule of the set pair which has element weight is analyzed, and on the basis of which, the system risk forecast model based on GSPA-MARKOV is put forward. The application example shows that the risk state in the coal mine system is forecasted by the transition probability and the ergodicity in the model, which embodies fully dynamic, predictable and so on , thus it provides a new method to determine the risk state in the coal mine system.

LI De-shun; XU Kai-li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis and Predictability of Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble weather forecasting has been operational for two decades now. However, the related uncertainty analysis in terms of probabilistic postprocessing still focuses on single variables, grid points, or stations. Inevitable dependencies in space ...

Jessica Keune; Christian Ohlwein; Andreas Hense

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The occurrence of fog can significantly impact air transport operations, and plays an important role in aviation safety. The economic value of aviation forecasts for Sydney Airport alone in 1993 was estimated at $6.8 million (Australian dollars) ...

Dustin Fabbian; Richard de Dear; Stephen Lellyett

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Machine learning techniques in disease forecasting: a case study on rice blast prediction  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Our case study demonstrated that SVM is better than existing machine learning techniques and conventional REG approaches in forecasting plant diseases. In this direction, we have also ... a SVM-based web server f...

Rakesh Kaundal; Amar S Kapoor; Gajendra PS Raghava

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Effect of Observation Network Design on Meteorological Forecasts of Asian Dust Events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To improve the prediction of Asian dust events on the Korean Peninsula, meteorological fields must be accurately predicted because dust transport models require them as input. Accurate meteorological forecasts could be obtained by integrating ...

Eun-Gyeong Yang; Hyun Mee Kim; JinWoong Kim; Jun Kyung Kay

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Statistical Downscaling Multimodel Forecasts for Seasonal Precipitation and Surface Temperature over the Southeastern United States  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study compared two types of approaches to downscale seasonal precipitation (P) and 2-m air temperature (T2M) forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) over the states of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida in the southeastern ...

Di Tian; Christopher J. Martinez; Wendy D. Graham; Syewoon Hwang

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting JASPER A. VRUGT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting JASPER A. VRUGT Earth values must be specified (Table 1). Corresponding author address: Jasper Vrugt, Earth and Envi- ronmental

Vrugt, Jasper A.

468

Forecasting in Fuzzy Time Series by an Extension of Simple Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Time Series was introduced to improve the forecasting made by statistical methods in vague or imprecise data and in time series with few samples available. However, the integration of these concepts is a little e...

Fábio José Justo dos Santos…

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

A study of outliers in the exponential smoothing approach to forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Outliers in time series have the potential to affect parameter estimates and forecasts when using exponential smoothing. The aim of this study is to show the way in which important types of outliers can be incorporated into linear innovations state space models for exponential smoothing methods. The types of outliers include an additive outlier, a level shift, and a transitory change. The general innovations state space model and a special case which encompasses the common linear exponential smoothing methods are examined. A method for identifying outliers using innovations state space models is proposed. This method is investigated using both simulations and applications to real time series. The impact of an outlier’s location on the forecasts and the estimation of parameters is examined. The forecasts from outlier and basic non-outlier models are compared. An automatic method is found to result in improved forecasts for both the simulated and real data.

Anne B. Koehler; Ralph D. Snyder; J. Keith Ord; Adrian Beaumont

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Research on the Forecasting of Construction Accidents with the Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Construction accidents occur frequently and cause great loss to construction enterprises, the whole industry and the society. Therefore, it is significant to forecast the death tolls of construction engineering a...

Chao He; Xiaoli Yan; Yilang Huang

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand ........................................................................ 28 Possible Future Trends for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles .............................................................. 23 Electricity Demand Growth in the West

472

Extremal Dependence Indices: Improved Verification Measures for Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Binary Events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Verifying forecasts of rare events is challenging, in part because traditional performance measures degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. The extreme dependency score was proposed recently as a nondegenerating measure for the ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro; David B. Stephenson

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Precipitation Forecasting with Gamma Distribution Models for Gridded Precipitation Events in Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An elegant and easy to implement probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting model that can be used to estimate the probability of exceedance (POE) is presented. The model was built using precipitation data collected across eastern ...

Steven A. Amburn; Andrew S.I.D. Lang; Michael A. Buonaiuto

474

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation uncertainty. Machine learning methods can produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts from the raw ensemble and machine learning are working to address these challenges. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models

Xue, Ming

476

Generalized Additive Models versus Linear Regression in Generating Probabilistic MOS Forecasts of Aviation Weather Parameters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The skill of probabilistic Model Output Statistics forecasts generated from Generalized Additive Models (GAM) is compared to that of traditional multiple linear regression techniques. Unlike linear regression, where each predictor term in the ...

Robert L. Vislocky; J. Michael Fritsch

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Because poor visibility conditions have a considerable influence on airport traffic, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL)-Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (...

Samuel Rémy; Thierry Bergot

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Testing Competing Precipitation Forecasts Accurately and Efficiently: The Spatial Prediction Comparison Test  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Which model is best? Many challenges exist when testing competing forecast models, especially for those with high spatial resolution. Spatial correlation, double penalties, and small-scale errors are just a few such challenges. Many new methods ...

Eric Gilleland

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

forecast, with a ratio below 1 indicating a gain in accuracy. There is no valid test for judging the statistical significance of the MSPE reductions in our context, but we...

480

A new adaptive fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption forecasting with hike in prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Large increase or hike in energy prices has proven to impact electricity consumption in a way which cannot be drawn ... (FIS) to estimate and forecast long-term electricity consumption when prices experience larg...

S. M. Sajadi; S. M. Asadzadeh; V. Majazi Dalfard…

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "variance narrative forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

A Long Term Load Forecasting of an Indian Grid for Power System Planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A time-series load modelling and load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy techniques were presented...7]. In this method, energy data of several past years is used to ... . ANN structure of ANFIS can capture the power ...

R. Behera; B. B. Pati; B. P. Panigrahi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

A New Neuro-Based Method for Short Term Load Forecasting of Iran National Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new neuro-based method for short term load forecasting of Iran national power system (INPS). A MultiLayer Perceptron ( ... were selected through a peer investigation on historical data relea...

R. Barzamini; M. B. Menhaj; Sh. Kamalvand…

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Application of Improved Grey Model in Long-term Load Forecasting of Power Engineering  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Grey model is usually been used for long-term load forecasting in power engineering, but it has significant limitations. If the moving average method and Markov model are connected with grey model, the accuracy of this improved grey model used for long-term load forecasting in power engineering can be effectively increased. In this paper, ordinary grey model and improved grey model are all chosen and used for long-term power load forecasting in power engineering, and the power load data of Qingdao in the past decade is selected for the analysis. The result of the analysis shows that the accuracy of improved grey model is significant higher than ordinary model, so the improved grey model can be used for long-term load forecasting in power engineering.

Junjie Kang; Huijuan Zhao

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the public’s preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Comparison of long–term forecasting of June–August rainfall over changjiang–huaihe valley  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In terms of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) established is a long-term prediction model for June–August flood/drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe Basins and a regression forecasting expression is formulated wi...

Jin Long; Luo Ying; Lin Zhenshan

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Future Sustainability Forecasting by Exchange Markets: Basic Theory and an Application  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Future Sustainability Forecasting by Exchange Markets: Basic Theory and an Application ... For example, there are often subtle but persistent price signals embedded in long-term investment decisions and stock price fluctuations. ...

Nataliya Malyshkina; Deb Niemeier

2010-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

487

Wintertime sub-kilometer numerical forecasts of near-surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at sub-kilometrer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous ...

Vincent Vionnet; Stéphane Bélair; Claude Girard; André Plante

488

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Wind speed measurements from one year from meteorological towers and wind turbines at heights between 20 and 250 m for various European sites are analyzed and are compared with operational short-term forecasts of the global ECMWF model. The ...

Susanne Drechsel; Georg J. Mayr; Jakob W. Messner; Reto Stauffer

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models ...

Daniel J. Halperin; Henry E. Fuelberg; Robert E. Hart; Joshua H. Cossuth; Philip Sura; Richard J. Pasch

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Weather Forecasting System Based on Satellite Imageries Using Neuro-fuzzy Techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We have built an automated Satellite Images Forecasting System with Neuro-Fuzzy techniques. Firstly, Subtractive Clustering is applied on to a satellite image to extract the locations of the clouds. This is follo...

Chien-Wan Tham; Sion-Hui Tian; Liya Ding

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Forecasting the S&P 500 index using time series analysis and simulation methods  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The S&P 500 represents a diverse pool of securities in addition to Large Caps. A range of audiences are interested in the S&P 500 forecasts including investors, speculators, economists, government and researchers. The ...

Chan, Eric Glenn

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Using a Business Process Model as a Central Organizing Construct for an Undergraduate Weather Forecasting Course  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For the last five years, the author has employed a business process model as a central organizing construct for the senior-level Forecasting Techniques course at Embry- Riddle Aeronautical University's Daytona Beach, Florida, campus. The process model ...

John M. Lanicci

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Exploring Variations in People’s Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Past research has shown that individuals vary in their attitudes and behaviors regarding weather forecast information. To deepen knowledge about these variations, this article explores 1) patterns in people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of ...

Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo; Rebecca E. Morss

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Static Forecasting of the Execution Times of Complexes of Interrelated Jobs in the Multiprocessor Computer Systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Consideration was given to a procedure of approximate forecasting of the execution times of the complexes of interrelated jobs in the multiprocessor computer systems with the Erlangian execution time of each j...

N. N. Ivanov; V. V. Ignatushchenko; A. Yu. Mikhailov

496

Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing techniques are commonly used to improve the skill of ensembles of numerical weather forecasts. This paper considers spatial extensions of the well-established nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) postprocessing ...

Kira Feldmann; Michael Scheuerer; Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir

497

Probability Distributions and Threshold Selection for Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical ...

Michael E. Splitt; Steven M. Lazarus; Sarah Collins; Denis N. Botambekov; William P. Roeder

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

The Peloton Approach : forecasting and strategic planning for emerging technologies : a case for RFID  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The RFID industry is going through a sea of change and at different levels within the industry. Forecasts have been done on different facets of the RFID/EPC industry like the market size or the possible financial returns. ...

Thuvara, Vineet

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Demand Alternative-Fuel Vehicles for DavldNG DEMANDFOR ALTERNATIVE-FUEL VEHICLES DavidBrownstone,interested in promoting alternative-fuel vehicles. Tl’us is

Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Demand Alternative-Fuel Vehicles for DavldNG DEMANDFOR ALTERNATIVE-FUEL VEHICLES DavidBrownstone,interested in promoting alternative-fuel vehicles. Tl’us is

Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S; Golob, Thomas F; Ren, Weiping

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z