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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

2011-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

2

Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

3

Handling uncertainty in science  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...techniques to predict uncertainty in...techniques used to predict uncertainty in...economy, or of the outbreak of life-threatening pandemic flu, have parallels...weather forecast model. (b) Example...ocean-atmosphere model. Source: European...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Uncertainty and Risk  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter shows how multiple realizations can be used to support the assessment of uncertainty and risk.

Mario E. Rossi; Clayton V. Deutsch

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Mccomiskey, Allison

6

Physical Design for Reduced Delay Uncertainty in High Performance Clock Distribution Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

531 Physical Design for Reduced Delay Uncertainty in High Performance Clock Distribution Networks, the design of a clock distribution network represents one of the most challenging tasks in the integrated in the design of a high performance clock distribution network [1]. The uncertainty of the clock signal delay

Friedman, Eby G.

7

Effect of aerodynamic uncertainties on unconventional lateral control at high angle of attack  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EFFECT OF AERODYNAMIC UNCERTAINTIES ON UNCONVENTIONAL LATERAL CONTROL AT HIGH ANGLE OF ATTACK A Thesis by BOB GENSEN ELLER Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1987 Major Subject: Aerospace Engineering EFFECT OF AERODYNAMIC UNCERTAINTIES ON UNCONVENTIONAL LATEHAI CONTROL AT HIGH ANGI. E (&F A'I'TACK A Thesis by BOB GENSEN ELLER Approved as to style and content by: Donald T...

Eller, Bob Gensen

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares ...

Jiang, Yueyang

9

Image Segmentation and Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

From the Publisher:Presents the first unified theory of image segmentation, written by the winners of the 1985 Pattern Recognition Society medal. Until now, image processing algorithms have always been beset by uncertainties, no one method proving completely ...

Roland 1949- Wilson; Michael Spann

1988-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Evaluating prediction uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented.

McKay, M.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating 4.1 Oil Prices...............................................................................................14 4.1.1 Analysis of historical oil prices........................................................15

Bhulai, Sandjai

12

Orifice flow measurement uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A computer program is now available from Union Carbide that evaluates the total flow uncertainty of orifice flowmeter systems. Tolerance values for every component in the system and the sensitivity of the measured flowrate to each component can be established using historical data and published hardware specifications. Knowing the tolerance and sensitivity values, a total measurement uncertainty can be estimated with a 95% confidence level. This computer program provides a powerful design tool to ensure correct component matching and total metering system optimization.

Samples, C.R.

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

Iaccarino, Gianluca

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Expressing scientific uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......situations where the risk probabilities are not...proposition. Keywords: risk uncertainty; standards...sums of money and in political controversies with major...misdemeanors' is inherently a political process in which the...flight, minimizing the risk of harm to the officer......

Charles Weiss

2003-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Action Under Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......that agents actually plan by theorem proving...In Section 2, the standard dynamic logic account...properties desired in a plan are taken to be effectiveness...uncertainty 3.1 Review of epistemic logic...familiarity with the standard [3] representation...I assume that the plan constructors......

SAM STEEL

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Policy implications of uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...by T. N. Palmer and P. J. Hardaker Policy implications of uncertainty Chris Smith...to be enough for governments and public policy-makers to make sensible decisions about...difficult decisions with regard to public policy over the course of the next 20 or 30 years...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Refinery Planning under Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The planning/scheduling of the supply chain under uncertainty is important in light of the ever-changing market conditions. ... Examples of the open-shop mode, such as the news vendor model26 in which the sales of holiday lights disappear after Christmas, for instance, can be found in the real world. ...

Wenkai Li; Chi-Wai Hui; Pu Li; An-Xue Li

2004-09-10T23:59:59.000Z

18

Communicating scientific uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...affect your preferred energy portfolio...approach asks experts to audit existing studies for...Conveying Uncertainty. An audit like that in Fig...them. For example, energy models often neglect social factors (e...electricity pilot studies . Energy Policy 62 : 401 409...

Baruch Fischhoff; Alex L. Davis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

A new uncertainty principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

By examining two counterexamples to the existing theory, it is shown, with mathematical rigor, that as far as scattered particles are concerned the true distribution function is in principle not determinable (indeterminacy principle or uncertainty principle) while the average distribution function over each predetermined finite velocity solid-angle element can be calculated.

C. Y. Chen

2008-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

20

Essays on uncertainty in economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis consists of four essays about "uncertainty" and how markets deal with it. Uncertainty is about subjective beliefs, and thus it often comes with heterogeneous beliefs that may be present temporarily or even ...

Simsek, Alp

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Cognitive neuroscience: Decision amid uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... their task, the less-than-perfect reliability of a cue) and unexpected uncertainty (a surreptitious switch in the relevant cue). They propose that information about these forms of uncertainty ...

Jonathan D. Cohen; Gary Aston-Jones

2005-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

22

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

23

Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Uncertainty of forest carbon stock changes implications to the total uncertainty of GHG inventory of Finland  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of ... . This paper presents an uncertainty analys...

S. Monni; M. Peltoniemi; T. Palosuo; A. Lehtonen; R. Mkip

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

26

Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

inexpensive way. We propose using Gaussian Processes for system performance predictions and explain the types of uncertainties included. As an example, we use a Gaussian Process to predict chilled water use and compare the results with Neural Network...

Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Political uncertainty and risk premia  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

?ubo Pstor; Pietro Veronesi

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...

29

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use, (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes, and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRCs regulations for the YM repository.

Jon C. Helton; Clifford W. Hansen; Cdric J. Sallaberry

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Experimental Uncertainties (Errors) Sources of Experimental Uncertainties (Experimental Errors)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the preparation of the lab report. A calculator should 1. Bevington, P. R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 2. Taylor, J. R., An introduction to uncertainty analysis in the lab. In this laboratory, we keep to a very simple form of error analysis, our purpose being more

Mukasyan, Alexander

31

Impact of orifice metering uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In a recent utility study, attributed 38% of its unaccounted-for UAF gas to orifice metering uncertainty biasing caused by straightening vanes. How this was determined and how this applied to the company's orifice meters is described. Almost all (97%) of the company's UAF gas was found to be attributed to identifiable accounting procedures, measurement problems, theft and leakage.

Stuart, J.W. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (USA))

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasingEconomic History Revisited: New Uncertainties I n the last Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, we are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

33

Optimal consumption strategies under model uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal consumption strategies under model uncertainty Christian Burgert, Ludger R of finding optimal consumption strategies in an incomplete semimartingale market model under model uncertainty. The quality of a consumption strategy is measured by not only one probability measure

Rüschendorf, Ludger

34

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling. NBER Working Paper,uncertainty using Texas oil well drilling data and expecta-

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1 Introduction The oil and gas industry is full of uncertainty. In addition to significant subsurface uncertainty and uncertainty in oil and gas prices, there are other risks, e.g., political, that contribute to uncertainty... that is commonly applied in other industries for assessing forecasts and was initially developed to assess weather forecasts (Brier, 1950). Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977) summarized the background for the 3 Brier score and its components. The Brier score...

Fondren, Mark Edward

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

37

Patent Protection, Market Uncertainty, and R&D Investment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty, and Investment, Journal of EconomicOptions, Irreversible Investment and Firm Uncertainty: NewWhat do we know about investment under uncertainty?

Toole, Andrew A; Czarnitzki, Dirk

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.

Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

ARM - PI Product - Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Site(s) NSA SGP TWP General Description Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in

40

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Research yields precise uncertainty equations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Results of a study of orifice-meter accuracy by Chevron Oil Field Research Co. at its Venice, La., calibration facility have important implications for natural gas custody-transfer measurement. The calibration facility, data collection, and equipment calibration were described elsewhere. This article explains the derivation of uncertainty factors and details the study's findings. The results were based on calibration of two 16-in. orifice-meter runs. The experimental data cover a beta-ratio range of from 0.27 to 0.71 and a Reynolds number range of from 4,000,000 to 35,000,000. Discharge coefficients were determined by comparing the orifice flow to the flow from critical-flow nozzles.

Jones, E.H.; Ferguson, K.R.

1987-08-03T23:59:59.000Z

42

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

The Retail Planning Problem under Demand Uncertainty.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Rajaram K. , (2000), Accurate Retail Testing of FashionThe Retail Planning Problem Under Demand Uncertainty GeorgeAbstract We consider the Retail Planning Problem in which

Georgiadis, G.; Rajaram, K.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy (more)

Sener, Adil Caner

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is pervasive for renewable resources, and it can play aConsider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,

Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: Temp Data Fields Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Lin, Guang; Crawford,...

47

Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective-a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from 'simple to complex' and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.

Jonas, Matthias [IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; Winiwarter, Wilfried [AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria; Marland, Gregg [ORNL; White, Thomas [Canadian Forest Service; Nahorski, Zbigniew [Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Science, Warsaw, Poland; Bun, Rostyslav [Lviv Polytech National University, Lviv, Ukraine

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertain...

Ramprasad Bhar; Girijasankar Mallik

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Uncertainty in Contaminant Concentration Fields Resulting from Atmospheric Boundary Layer Depth Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The relationship between atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depth uncertainty and uncertainty in atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) simulations is investigated by examining profiles of predicted concentrations of a contaminant. Because ...

Brian P. Reen; Kerrie J. Schmehl; George S. Young; Jared A. Lee; Sue Ellen Haupt; David R. Stauffer

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for September 2010 delivery for the

51

Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Carbon Project · Scenarios trends are averages across all models available for each scenario class1928 2000 Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water Uncertainty in projected-2004Observed Changes: 1970-2004 · High confidence changes in: ­ rainfall intensity ­ extreme temperatures

Maurer,. Edwin P.

52

The Low energy structure of the Nucleon-Nucleon interaction: Statistical vs Systematic Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We analyse the low energy NN interaction by extracting threshold parameters from the coupled channel effective range expansion up to $j \\le 5$. The statistical uncertainties are propagated from a previous Monte Carlo bootstrap approach. To give an estimate of the systematic uncertainties we consider six high quality potentials. We find that systematic uncertainties are typically an order of magnitude larger than statistical uncertainties.

R. Navarro Perez; J. E. Amaro; E. Ruiz Arriola

2014-10-29T23:59:59.000Z

53

The Low energy structure of the Nucleon-Nucleon interaction: Statistical vs Systematic Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We analyse the low energy NN interaction by extracting threshold parameters from the coupled channel effective range expansion up to $j \\le 5$. The statistical uncertainties are propagated from a previous Monte Carlo bootstrap approach. To give an estimate of the systematic uncertainties we consider six high quality potentials. We find that systematic uncertainties are typically an order of magnitude larger than statistical uncertainties.

Perez, R Navarro; Arriola, E Ruiz

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Uncertainty and Inference for Verification Measures  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

When a forecast is assessed, a single value for a verification measure is often quoted. This is of limited use, as it needs to be complemented by some idea of the uncertainty associated with the value. If this uncertainty can be quantified, it is ...

Ian T. Jolliffe

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

COMMON KNOWLEDGE, COHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONSENSUS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

COMMON KNOWLEDGE, COHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONSENSUS by Yakov Ben-Haim TECHNICAL REPORT ETR-2001 of Mechanical Engineering #12;Working Paper Common Knowledge, Coherent Uncertainties and Consensus Yakov Ben- and knowledge-functions, common knowledge and consensus. Our main results are that knowledge is constricted

Rimon, Elon

56

Including Ocean Model Uncertainties in Climate Predictions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Including Ocean Model Uncertainties in Climate Predictions Chris Brierley, Alan Thorpe, Mat Collins's to perform the integrations Currently uses a `slab' ocean #12;An Ocean Model Required to accurately model transient behaviour Will have its own uncertainties Requires even more computing power Create new models

Jones, Peter JS

57

Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

58

Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Theoretical uncertainty of orifice flow measurement  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Orifice meters are the most common meters used for fluid flow measurement, especially for measuring hydrocarbons. Meters are rugged, mechanically simple, and well suited for field use under extreme weather conditions. Because of their long history of use and dominance in the fluid flow measurement, their designs, installation requirements, and equations for flow rate calculation have been standardized by different organizations in the United States and internationally. These standards provide the guideline for the users to achieve accurate flow measurement. and minimize measurement uncertainty. This paper discusses different factors that contribute to the measurement inaccuracy and provide an awareness to minimize or eliminate these errors. Many factors which influence the overall measurement uncertainty are associated with the orifice meter application. Major contributors to measurement uncertainty include the predictability of flow profile, fluid properties at flowing condition, precision of empirical equation for discharge coefficient, manufacturing tolerances in meter components, and the uncertainty associated with secondary devices monitoring the static line pressure, differential pressure across the orifice plate, flowing temperature, etc. Major factors contributing to the measurement uncertainty for a thin, concentric, square-edged orifice flowmeter are as follows: (a) Tolerances in prediction of coefficient of discharge, (b) Predictability in defining the physical properties of the flowing fluid, (c) Fluid flow condition, (d) Construction tolerances in meter components, (e) Uncertainty of secondary devices/instrumentation, and (f) Data reduction and computation. Different factors under each of the above areas are discussed with precautionary measures and installation procedures to minimize or eliminate measurement uncertainty.

Husain, Z.D. [Daniel Flow Products, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Uncertainty Quantification on Prompt Fission Neutrons Spectra  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainties in the evaluated prompt fission neutrons spectra present in ENDF/B-VII.0 are assessed in the framework of the Los Alamos model. The methodology used to quantify the uncertainties on an evaluated spectrum is introduced. We also briefly review the Los Alamos model and single out the parameters that have the largest influence on the calculated results. Using a Kalman filter, experimental data and uncertainties are introduced to constrain model parameters, and construct an evaluated covariance matrix for the prompt neutrons spectrum. Preliminary results are shown in the case of neutron-induced fission of 235U from thermal up to 15 MeV incident energies.

P. Talou; D.G. Madland; T. Kawano

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Robust quantification of parametric uncertainty for surfactantpolymer flooding  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainty in surfactantpolymer flooding is an important challenge to the wide- ... uncertainty in an efficient manner. Monte Carlo simulation is the traditional uncertainty quantification approach that ... unc...

Ali Alkhatib; Peter King

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Durham 15 May 2008  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Durham 15 May 2008 Decision Theory under Complex #12;Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Durham 15 May 2008 Decision Theory under Complex Robert Hable University of Bayreuth #12;Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Decision Theory

Hable, Robert

63

Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has ...

Donald, Bruce Randall

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

65

Valuation Made Simple: No Uncertainties, Just Time  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Finance deals with time and uncertainty. This chapter introduces the very basics of financial economics in a deterministic setting. Leaving aside any consideration of risk is obviously restrictive, yet importa...

L. M. Abadie; J. M. Chamorro

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

between mismatch and closeness to the true reserves value. The integrated mismatch method does not need a large number of simulation runs for the uncertainty analysis, while some other methods need hundreds of runs....

Zhang, Guohong

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

67

Market Clearing under Uncertainty: Wind Energy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Power systems are subject to a great variety of uncertainties. Restructuring and competition in electricity systems are definitely contingent on the available means to overcome the difficulties brought by thes...

Antonio J. Conejo; Miguel Carrin

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

69

Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

Ahmed, Taahir

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

70

How does fuel price uncertainty affect strategic airline planning?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Today, jet fuel costs are a growing part in airlines ... fluctuations. Therefore, airlines think about minimizing jet fuel costs and counteracting fuel price uncertainty. The strategic flight planning highly det...

Marc Naumann; Leena Suhl

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible.

Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M. [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic throughout the year as a component of their focus on the previously discussed topic of Discretionary Budgeting. Discussion Understanding the risks and variability associated with EM's projects is a challenging task that has the potential to significantly impact the program's established baselines. According to budget personnel, EM has established a database of baseline variables and possibilities; however, this tool is project-specific and does not apply to the greater complex. The Board believes that EM could benefit from incorporating an additional and more comprehensive data point into the baseline development process that budgets

73

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that exceeded the December 5-year averages helped push it back up to $79 per barrel by the end of the month. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will weaken over

74

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 2010 May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

75

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

76

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.

Rougier, Jonathan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Reservoir Uncertainty Assessment: The Conditional Finite-Domain Approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An important aim of modern geostatistical modeling is to quantify uncertainty in geological systems. Geostatistical modeling requires many input parameters. The input univariate distribution or histogram is perhaps the most important. A new method for assessing uncertainty in the histogram, particularly uncertainty in the mean, is presented. This method, referred to as the conditional finite-domain (CFD) approach, accounts for the size of the domain and the local conditioning data. It is a stochastic approach based on a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The CFD approach is shown to be convergent, design independent, and parameterization invariant. The performance of the CFD approach is illustrated in a case study focusing on the impact of the number of data and the range of correlation on the limiting uncertainty in the parameters. The spatial bootstrap method and CFD approach are compared. As the number of data increases, uncertainty in the sample mean decreases in both the spatial bootstrap and the CFD. Contrary to spatial bootstrap, uncertainty in the sample mean in the CFD approach decreases as the range of correlation increases. This is a direct result of the conditioning data being more correlated to unsampled locations in the finite domain. The sensitivity of the limiting uncertainty relative to the variogram and the variable limits are also discussed.

Babak, Olena, E-mail: obabak@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V. [University of Alberta, Centre for Computational Geostatistics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada)], E-mail: cdeutsch@ualberta.ca

2009-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

78

Uncertainty in local determination of anisotropy parameters  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. For the walkaway line with the best data quality, the analysis clearly shows that the shale in which the VSP tool is placed is anisotropic and that the symmetry axis is inclined from vertical. Nevertheless, the uncertainty recorded by the VSP tool. The three VSP tool placements were in massive homogeneous shales. The geologic

Cerveny, Vlastislav

79

COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PROBLEM The plant to be controlled is a turbocharged pas- senger car diesel engine equipped with exhaust. Diesel engine setup. The second feedback path from the exhaust to the intake manifold is due to exhaustCOMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST CONTROL OF TURBOCHARGED DIESEL ENGINES

Cambridge, University of

80

Nuclear power expansion: thinking about uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Nuclear power is one of many options available to achieve reduced carbon dioxide emissions. The real-option value model can help explain the uncertainties facing prospective nuclear plant developers in developing mitigation strategies for the development, construction, and operation of new nuclear plants. (author)

Holt, Lynne; Sotkiewicz, Paul; Berg, Sanford

2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Logic - Applications Many everyday applications use Fuzzy Logic control Microwaves ABS brakes Camera Huber 2011 6 Fuzzy Inference (Control) Fuzzy Logic uses logic inference rules and defuzzification© Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty Fuzzy Logic #12;© Manfred Huber 2011 2 Fuzzy

Huber, Manfred

82

Uncertainty in Quantitative Thin-Layer Chromatography  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......and cross-border issues force analysts not only to standardize...uncertainty is developed for fundamental metrological research and is...New York, NY, 1987. 7. Handbook of Thin-Layer Chromatography...New York, NY, 1994. 9. Handbook of Thin-Layer Chromatography......

Mirko Prosek; Alenka Golc-Wondra; Irena Vovk

83

Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty Osman Y. ¨Ozaltin Department of Industrial of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA 02125-3393, USA, michael.johnson@umb.edu Andrew J. Schaefer Department. In response, we propose a two-echelon network of senior centers. We for- mulate a two-stage stochastic

Schaefer, Andrew

84

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

85

UAV mission planning under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

With the continued development of high endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) that are capable of performing autonomous fiunctions across the spectrum of military operations, ...

Sakamoto, Philemon

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization: this includes the rationale adopted for each part of the nodalization, the user choices, and the systematic derivation and justification of any value present in the code input respect to the values as indicated in the RDS-facility and in the RDS-test. (authors)

Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D'Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Carbon capture retrofits and the cost of regulatory uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm's ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.

Reinelt, P.S.; Keith, D.W. [SUNY College of Fredonia, Fredonia, NY (United States). Dept. of Economics

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area J. E. Christy, C. N. Long, and T. R. Shippert Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington Interpolation Grids Across the SGP Network Area The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates a network of surface radiation measurement sites across north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. This Southern Great Plains (SGP) network consists of 21 sites unevenly spaced from 95.5 to 99.5 degrees west longitude, and from 34.5 to 38.5 degrees north latitude. We use the technique outlined by Long and Ackerman (2000) and Long et al. (1999) to infer continuous estimates of clear-sky downwelling shortwave (SW) irradiance, SW cloud effect, and daylight fractional sky cover for each

89

Uncertainty quantification for porous media flows  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty quantification is an increasingly important aspect of many areas of computational science, where the challenge is to make reliable predictions about the performance of complex physical systems in the absence of complete or reliable data. Predicting flows of oil and water through oil reservoirs is an example of a complex system where accuracy in prediction is needed primarily for financial reasons. Simulation of fluid flow in oil reservoirs is usually carried out using large commercially written finite difference simulators solving conservation equations describing the multi-phase flow through the porous reservoir rocks. This paper examines a Bayesian Framework for uncertainty quantification in porous media flows that uses a stochastic sampling algorithm to generate models that match observed data. Machine learning algorithms are used to speed up the identification of regions in parameter space where good matches to observed data can be found.

Christie, Mike [Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mike.christie@pet.hw.ac.uk; Demyanov, Vasily [Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland (United Kingdom); Erbas, Demet [Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Speaker(s): Hermann Held Date: July 9, 2010 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Thomas McKone The Copenhagen Accord (2009) recognizes that 'the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius' (compared to pre-industrial levels, '2° target'). In recent years, energy economics have derived welfare-optimal investment streams into low-emission energy mixes and associated costs. According to our analyses, auxiliary targets that are in line with the 2° target could be achieved at relatively low costs if energy investments were triggered rather swiftly. While such analyses assume 'perfect foresight' of a benevolent 'social planner', an accompanying suite of experiments explicitly

91

Challenges in the face of uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Opinions of the Interim Director of the Global Environment Program of Cornell University are presented. The focus is on obstacles to the implementation by policymakers of actions needed to address climate change. A major obstacle preventing action is stated to be the uncertainties involved in climate predictions. It is proposed that rapid, comprehensive action is required to meet the challenges posed by climate predictions, regardless of the inherent uncertainties. Aspects of future climate which are relatively certain are discussed, including continued greenhouse effects for the next several decades, a greater warming effect at higher altitudes, more warming in the winter, and linkage of all other aspects of climate to temperature changes. Aspects of climatic change which pose particular problems regarding predictability are also discussed.

Oglesby, R.T. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

92

Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA b Nuclear Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory1 Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification, Argonne, IL, USA Abstract. We introduce a novel technique of uncertainty quantification using polynomial

Anitescu, Mihai

93

Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

94

A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

Monier, Erwan

95

Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

Somanath, Amith

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced in energy consumption due to actual weather and building operational practices, using a simulation

97

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The correlation of the jet energy scale uncertainties between the ATLAS and CMS experiments are presented in this note. The uncertainty components for both experiments are grouped into categories. For each of these categories, the detailed

CMS Collaboration

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Uncertainty Analysis (3 credits): Nuclear Engineering 602 Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers of Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison Personal Information: Name: __________________________ Department of Engineering Physics, College of Engineering, UW-Madison, 147 Engineering Research Building, 1500 Engineering

Van Veen, Barry D.

99

Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A simple statistical model is used to partition uncertainty from different sources, in projections of future climate from multimodel ensembles. Three major sources of uncertainty are considered: the choice of climate model, the choice of emissions ...

Paul J. Northrop; Richard E. Chandler

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Quantification of uncertainty during history matching  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

technology requirements and possibly marginal investment indicators. Our method of quantifying uncertainty uses a set of history-match runs and includes a method to determine the probability density function (pdf) of future oil production (reserves... side)?????. 29 3.16 Marginal cumulative oil production correlates well with total error?.. 32 ix FIGURE Page 3.17 Weighted standard deviation is smaller than non weighted?..?..?? 37 3.18 Shows sets of weighted and non weighted mean...

Alvarado, Martin Guillermo

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

2007-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

102

Entropic uncertainties for joint quantum measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We investigate the uncertainty associated with a joint quantum measurement of two spin components of a spin-(1/2) particle and quantify this in terms of entropy. We consider two entropic quantities, the joint entropy and the sum of the marginal entropies, and obtain lower bounds for each of these quantities. For the case of joint measurements where we measure each spin observable equally well, these lower bounds are tight.

Brougham, Thomas [Department of Physics, FJFI, CVUT, Brehova 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom); Andersson, Erika [SUPA, Department of Physics, School of EPS, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4As (United Kingdom); Barnett, Stephen M. [SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

103

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

October 16, 2014 Webinar- Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Webinar October 16, 2014, 11 am 12:40 pm EDT: Dr. Paul Black (Neptune, Inc), Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty

105

Validation and Uncertainty Quantification in the Consortium for...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and Uncertainty Quantification Advanced Modeling Applications Materials Performance and Optimization Virtual Reactor Integration Radiation Transport & Thermal Hydraulics CASLVUQ...

106

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty Speaker(s): Afzal Siddiqui Karl Maribu Date: September 4, 2008 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Galen Barbose The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only effciency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attractiveness of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplating the installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the

107

Long term distribution network planning considering urbanity uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses the problem of long term distribution network planning under urbanity uncertainties. Unpredictable urbanity plans are expected facts in developing/under developed countries. This type of uncertainties make it difficult to implement designed network in the future and leads to increasing operational costs including loss and outage costs. In this paper we presented a novel approach for distribution network planning which in addition of eliminating harmful effects of urbanity uncertainties, leads to easy management and operation of resulted network. In this approach several points of study region with high accessibility are selected as candidate embranchment points and optimal connection configuration of load points to the embranchment points is determined by genetic algorithm considering investment, loss and also customer interruption costs. Afterward, final structure of network is designed by branch exchange method considering the embranchment points as representative to load points in their service area. The performance of the proposed approach is assessed on a test distribution network.

Javad Salehi; Mahmoud-Reza Haghifam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

A Bayesian approach to simultaneously quantify assignments and linguistic uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Subject matter expert assessments can include both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. This paper examines assessments containing linguistic uncertainty associated with a qualitative description of a specific state of interest and the assignment uncertainty associated with assigning a qualitative value to that state. A Bayesian approach is examined to simultaneously quantify both assignment and linguistic uncertainty in the posterior probability. The approach is applied to a simplified damage assessment model involving both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. The utility of the approach and the conditions under which the approach is feasible are examined and identified.

Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC FREDERICKSBURG; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

110

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

114

Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems.

Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

1999-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

115

Online Sensor Calibration Monitoring Uncertainty Estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Empirical modeling techniques have been applied to online process monitoring to detect equipment and instrumentation degradations. However, few applications provide prediction uncertainty estimates, which can provide a measure of confidence in decisions. This paper presents the development of analytical prediction interval estimation methods for three common nonlinear empirical modeling strategies: artificial neural networks, neural network partial least squares, and local polynomial regression. The techniques are applied to nuclear power plant operational data for sensor calibration monitoring, and the prediction intervals are verified via bootstrap simulation studies.

Hines, J. Wesley; Rasmussen, Brandon [University of Tennessee (United States)

2005-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

116

Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

Scardigli, Fabio

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

EPR Steering Inequalities from Entropic Uncertainty Relations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We use entropic uncertainty relations to formulate inequalities that witness Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering correlations in diverse quantum systems. We then use these inequalities to formulate symmetric EPR-steering inequalities using the mutual information. We explore the differing natures of the correlations captured by one-way and symmetric steering inequalities, and examine the possibility of exclusive one-way steerability in two-qubit states. Furthermore, we show that steering inequalities can be extended to generalized positive operator valued measures (POVMs), and we also derive hybrid-steering inequalities between alternate degrees of freedom.

James Schneeloch; Curtis J. Broadbent; Stephen P. Walborn; Eric G. Cavalcanti; John C. Howell

2013-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

119

Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.

Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

IPA Phase 2 sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The NRC`s Phase 2 Iterative Performance Assessment (IPA) used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate uncertainty for up to 297 independent variables and nine scenarios through computer models representing the performance of the Yucca Mountain repository. The NRC staff explored the use of a number of parametric and non-parametric tests and graphical methods to display the probabilistic results. Parametric tests included regression and differential analysis. Non-parametric tests included the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Sign test. Graphical methods included the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF), hair diagram, scatter plots, histograms and box plots. Multiple linear regression of raw, ranked, standardized and other transformed variables determined the gross sensitivity over the parameter space. CCDF`s were also generated from subsets of the 400 vector sets formed by screening the vectors according to values of derived variables related to the behavior of the engineered and natural systems. While no single statistical or graphical technique proved to be useful in all cases, diverse methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the same important input parameters.

Colten-Bradley, V.; Codell, R.; Byrne, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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121

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

122

From Interval Methods of Representing Uncertainty To A General Description of Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

hunguyen@nmsu.edu Abstract Measurements do not result in an exact value of the measured quantity; even of the measured quantity. Traditionally, in science and engineering, this uncertainty is character­ ized measurements. Some of this knowl­ edge comes not from measurements but from the ex­ pertise of scientists

Kreinovich, Vladik

123

Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties inUncertainties in  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

environmental technologies (e.g., advanced power plants with carbon capture and storage) in energy- economic control systems used at coal-fired power plants · No "natural" markets for these technologies; major models used for climate/energy policy analysis? · What are the uncertainties associated with use

124

Uncertainty Analysis in Upscaling Well Log data By Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

developments with the advent of super high-speed and mass-storage computers. In spite of these improvements, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in data measurements, processing, interpreta- tion, etc. due to the limitation of geological... scale, and seismic data indicate from meter to decimeter scale. In practice, damaged samples and washout in boring tool could be causes of inaccurate data. Uncertainty in geophysics can be classified according to both geologic uncertainty and measurement...

Hwang, Kyubum

2010-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

125

Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the nominal scenario class in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the nominal scenario class (i.e., for undisturbed conditions) obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures, (ii) drip shield and waste package failure, (iii) engineered barrier system conditions, (iv) radionuclide release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, and (v) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

C.W. Hansen; G.A. Behie; A. Bier; K.M. Brooks; Y. Chen; J.C. Helton; S.P. Hommel; K.P. Lee; B. Lester; P.D. Mattie; S. Mehta; S.P. Miller; C.J. Sallaberry; S.D. Sevougian; P. Vo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The correlation of the jet energy scale uncertainties between the ATLAS and CMS experiments are presented in this note. The uncertainty components for both experiments are grouped in categories. For each of these categories, the detailed comparison of the procedures to determine the jet calibration and its uncertainties allows to estimate a range for the correlation coefficient between the two experiments, ranging from 0 (uncorrelated) to 100\\% (fully correlated). This information can be used for the combination of ATLAS and CMS precision measurements.

The ATLAS collaboration

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series of reports of a stumbling economic recovery. EIA has lowered its average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to $77 per barrel, compared with $81 in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to

129

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2010 October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has been the case for most of 2010, WTI futures traded with a notable lack of volatility during the third quarter of 2010 (Figure 1). However, prices did bounce in

130

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2010 March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart).

131

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2010 November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $85 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for January 2011 delivery (for the 5-day period ending November 4)

132

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per barrel higher than in the last Outlook. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for February 2011 delivery during the 5-day period ending December 2

133

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel from last monthʹs Outlook to $92 per barrel with a continuing rise to an average $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The projected annual average WTI price is $93 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in

134

Diffusion of irreversible energy technologies under uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a model of technology diffusion is consistent with characteristics of participants in most energy markets. Whereas the models used most widely for empirical research are based on the assumption that the extended delays in adoption of cost-saving innovations are the result of either lack of knowledge about the new processes or heterogeneity across potential adopters, the model presented in this paper is based on the strategic behavior by firms. The strategic interdependence of the firms` decisions is rooted in spillover effects associated with an inability to exclude others from the learning-by-doing acquired when a firm implements a new technology. The model makes extensive use of recent developments in investment theory as it relates irreversible investments under uncertainty.

Cacallo, J.D.; Sutherland, R.J.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, and held near $81 until rising to $85 at the start of April. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less that $81 for 2010 as a whole,

136

Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

A surrogate-based uncertainty quantification with quantifiable errors  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Surrogate models are often employed to reduce the computational cost required to complete uncertainty quantification, where one is interested in propagating input parameters uncertainties throughout a complex engineering model to estimate responses uncertainties. An improved surrogate construction approach is introduced here which places a premium on reducing the associated computational cost. Unlike existing methods where the surrogate is constructed first, then employed to propagate uncertainties, the new approach combines both sensitivity and uncertainty information to render further reduction in the computational cost. Mathematically, the reduction is described by a range finding algorithm that identifies a subspace in the parameters space, whereby parameters uncertainties orthogonal to the subspace contribute negligible amount to the propagated uncertainties. Moreover, the error resulting from the reduction can be upper-bounded. The new approach is demonstrated using a realistic nuclear assembly model and compared to existing methods in terms of computational cost and accuracy of uncertainties. Although we believe the algorithm is general, it will be applied here for linear-based surrogates and Gaussian parameters uncertainties. The generalization to nonlinear models will be detailed in a separate article. (authors)

Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Uncertainty relation for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

General forms of uncertainty relations for quantum observables of non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered. Special cases of uncertainty relations are discussed. The uncertainty relations for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered in the Schroedinger-Robertson form since it allows us to take into account Lie-Jordan algebra of quantum observables. In uncertainty relations, the time dependence of quantum observables and the properties of this dependence are discussed. We take into account that a time evolution of observables of a non-Hamiltonian quantum system is not an endomorphism with respect to Lie, Jordan, and associative multiplications.

Tarasov, Vasily E. [Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)] [Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

2013-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

139

Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

DOE Early Career awards Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists DOE Early Career awards Marian Jandel and Nathan Urban are among the 61 national...

140

The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)

Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Uncertainties of coherent states for a generalized supersymmetric annihilation operator  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study presents supersymmetric coherent states that are eigenstates of a general four-parameter family of annihilation operators. The elements of this family are defined as operators in Fock space that transform a subspace of a definite number of particles into a subspace with one particle removed. The emphasis is on classifying parameter space in various regions according to the uncertainty bounds of the corresponding coherent states. Specifically, the uncertainty in position-momentum is analyzed, with specific focus on characterizing regions of minimum uncertainty states, regions where the uncertainties are bounded from above, and where they grow unbound.

Kornbluth, Mordechai; Zypman, Fredy [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)] [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)

2013-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

142

Variable Grid Method for Visualizing Uncertainty Associated with...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

This Return to Search Variable Grid Method for Visualizing Uncertainty Associated with Spatial Data A decision-making tool for industry,government, academia, and scientists...

143

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

S. Irreversible investment in alternative projects. Economice Dixit, AK, Pindyck, RS. Investment under uncertainty.Maribu, KM, Wangensteen, I. Optimal investment strategies in

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

KM. Distributed generation investment and upgrade underin gas fired power plant investments. Review of Financial13] Dixit AK, Pindyck RS. Investment under uncertainty.

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

tax on microgrid combined heat and power adoption. JournalDG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heatUncertainty Keywords: Combined heat and power applications,

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Substantive and Procedural Rationality in Decisions under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Income Inequality and Decision Theory Resolving the Allaisthe classical theory of decision making under uncertainty.1979) Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,

Choi, Syngjoo; Fisman, Raymond; Gale, Douglass; Kariv, Sachar

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

2011-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

148

Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy...

Pedro Crespo Del Granado

2015-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

149

Uncertainty Quantification for Nano-Scale Integrated Circuits...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty Quantification for Nano-Scale Integrated Circuits and MEMS Design Event Sponsor: Mathematics and Computing Science Seminar Start Date: Jan 20 2015 - 10:30am Building...

150

Robust Optimization under Multi-band Uncertainty Part I: Theory ?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

rithms for the design of robust and survivable networks, in collaboration with ... problems), where the uncertainty set has been defined in collaboration with our.

2013-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

151

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [1] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [2]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

Hall, Sharon J.

156

Bayesian System Identification and Response Predictions Robust to Modeling Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainties, both prior (e.g. design based on reliability or life-cycle cost optimization), & posterior (e reliability of treating excitation uncertainty under wind and earthquakes (random vibrations, stochastic in the development and use of Bayesian methods in the last decade or so · Allows analysis that is robust to modeling

Beck, James L.

157

Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBNL-5096E Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated of California. #12;Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR

158

Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of BRANDON JULIO  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of Capital BRANDON JULIO London Business School YOUNGSUK YOOK Sungkyunkwan University September 2011 ABSTRACT We find that policy uncertainty is an important determinant of fluctuations in cross- border flows of capital. Spefically, we find that fluctuations in policy

University of Technology, Sydney

159

Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations Vijay Gupta1 of uncertainty and complex fiscal rules in the development planning of offshore oil and gas fields which involve, Offshore Oil and Gas, Multistage Stochastic, Endogenous, Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) 1

Grossmann, Ignacio E.

160

Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta

2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation Adrien Nguyen Huu1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation Adrien Nguyen Huu1 1 IMPA, Estrada Dona of preemptive investment. We recall the rigorous framework of M. Grasselli, V. Lecl`ere and M. Ludkovsky investment valuation. The latter uses recent methods from stochastic finance to price uncertainty

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

162

Evolution of Schrodinger Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Mechanics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the present article, we discuss one of the basic relations of Quantum Mechanics - the Uncertainty Relation (UR). In 1930, few years after Heisenberg, Erwin Schrodinger generalized the famous Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Mechanics, making it more precise than the original. The present study discusses recent generalizations of Schrodinger's work and explains why his paper remains almost forgotten in the last century.

A Angelow

2008-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

163

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Optimal Decision Framework Speaker(s): Jose M. Ortega Date: October 7, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Michael Sohn A new approach to the problem of identifying design feasibility and optimality under uncertainty is introduced. Based on the Bayesian concepts of predictive probability and expected utility, the method can quantify the feasibility of a process design and identify the optimal operation conditions when there are uncertainties in the process parameters. The use of Bayesian statistics enables the treatment of a very wide class of parameter uncertainties, including simple bounds, analytic probability density functions, correlation structures and empirical distributions.

164

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies reduction and resilience, denying, ignoring and postponing. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vnge 15, 2450 Kbenhavn SV (Denmark); Krnv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vnge 15, 2450 Kbenhavn SV (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vnge 15, 2450 Kbenhavn SV (Denmark)

2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

165

Hadronic uncertainties in the elastic scattering of supersymmetric dark matter  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We review the uncertainties in the spin-independent and spin-dependent elastic scattering cross sections of supersymmetric dark matter particles on protons and neutrons. We propagate the uncertainties in quark masses and hadronic matrix elements that are related to the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term and the spin content of the nucleon. By far the largest single uncertainty is that in spin-independent scattering induced by our ignorance of the matrix elements linked to the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term, which affects the ratio of cross sections on proton and neutron targets as well as their absolute values. This uncertainty is already impacting the interpretations of experimental searches for cold dark matter. We plead for an experimental campaign to determine better the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term. Uncertainties in the spin content of the proton affect significantly, but less strongly, the calculation of rates used in indirect searches.

Ellis, John [TH Division, Physics Department, CERN, 1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A.; Savage, Christopher [William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 (United States)

2008-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

166

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Simultaneity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The observed acceleration expansion of the universe was thought attribute to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of the classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with a vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a wrong order of the vacuum energy and leads to a severe fine-tuning, known as the cosmological constant problem. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of an operational quantum clock system. In the framework of reinterpretation of time, we find that the synchronization of two quantum clocks distance apart can not be realized in all rigor at quantum level. Thus leading to an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of simultaneity between spatial interval, which implies a visional vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$, whe...

Luo, M J

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Clustering and Uncertainty in Perfect Chaos Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The goal of this investigation was to derive strictly new properties of chaotic systems and their mutual relations. The generalized Fokker-Planck equation with a non stationary diffusion has been derived and used for chaos analysis. An anomalous transport turned out to be natural property of this equation. A nonlinear dispersion of the considered motion allowed to find a principal consequence: a chaotic system with uniform dynamic properties tends to unstable clustering. Small fluctuations of particles density increase by time and form attractors and stochastic islands even if the initial transport properties have uniform distribution. It was shown that an instability of phase trajectories leads to the nonlinear dispersion law and consequently to a space instability. A fixed boundary system was considered, using a standard Fokker-Planck equation. We have derived that such a type of dynamic systems has a discrete diffusive and energy spectra. It was shown that phase space diffusion is the only parameter that defines a dynamic accuracy in this case. The uncertainty relations have been obtained for conjugate phase space variables with account of transport properties. Given results can be used in the area of chaotic systems modelling and turbulence investigation.

Sergey A. Kamenshchikov

2014-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

168

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INLs Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.

Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties.

Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond Virginia 23298 (United States)

2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

170

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

A Multi-Model Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Model Calibration in CFD Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proper quantification and propagation of uncertainties in computational simulations are of critical importance. This issue is especially challenging for CFD applications. A particular obstacle for uncertainty quantifications in CFD problems is the large model discrepancies associated with the CFD models used for uncertainty propagation. Neglecting or improperly representing the model discrepancies leads to inaccurate and distorted uncertainty distribution for the Quantities of Interest. High-fidelity models, being accurate yet expensive, can accommodate only a small ensemble of simulations and thus lead to large interpolation errors and/or sampling errors; low-fidelity models can propagate a large ensemble, but can introduce large modeling errors. In this work, we propose a multi-model strategy to account for the influences of model discrepancies in uncertainty propagation and to reduce their impact on the predictions. Specifically, we take advantage of CFD models of multiple fidelities to estimate the model ...

Wang, Jian-xun; Xiao, Heng

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.

BABA,T.; ISHIGURO,K.; ISHIHARA,Y.; SAWADA,A.; UMEKI,H.; WAKASUGI,K.; WEBB,ERIK K.

1999-08-30T23:59:59.000Z

173

Measurement uncertainty in the performance verification of indicating measuring instruments  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper is concerned with measurement uncertainty in the performance verification of the metrological characteristics of indicating measuring instruments to specified tolerances, often called maximum permissible errors (MPE). Performance verification differs from other types of calibrations in that the measurement does not necessarily result in an assigned quantity value. When a measurement involves assigning a quantity value, as is typical with the calibration of material measures or inspection of features on commercial workpieces, the measurand is different than in performance verification. The research literature and published standards and practice for measurement uncertainty typically only address the measurement uncertainty associated with assigned quantity values. When these general approaches to measurement uncertainty are applied to performance verification as well, the measurement uncertainty is not properly estimated and therefore incorrect practice is wide spread in the calibration industry. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the measurand in performance verification and to develop an associated general measurement uncertainty model. Examples are presented that highlight some cases where a measurand associated with performance verification results in a very different measurement uncertainty than when the measurand is associated with the assignment of a quantity value. Some issues for future work are also identified, particularly for consideration in the standardization of specifications for indicating measuring instruments.

James G. Salsbury; Edward P. Morse

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Joint measurability, steering and entropic uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The notion of incompatibility of measurements in quantum theory is in stark contrast with the corresponding classical perspective, where all physical observables are jointly measurable. It is of interest to examine if the results of two or more measurements in the quantum scenario can be perceived from a classical point of view or they still exhibit non-classical features. Clearly, commuting observables can be measured jointly using projective measurements and their statistical outcomes can be discerned classically. However, such simple minded association of compatibility of measurements with commutativity turns out to be limited in an extended framework, where the usual notion of sharp projective valued measurements of self adjoint observables gets broadened to include unsharp measurements of generalized observables constituting positive operator valued measures (POVM). There is a surge of research activity recently towards gaining new physical insights on the emergence of classical behavior via joint measurability of unsharp observables. Here, we explore the entropic uncertainty relation for a pair of discrete observables (of Alice's system) when an entangled quantum memory of Bob is restricted to record outcomes of jointly measurable POVMs only. Within the joint measurability regime, the sum of entropies associated with Alice's measurement outcomes - conditioned by the results registered at Bob's end - are constrained to obey an entropic steering inequality. In this case, Bob's non-steerability reflects itself as his inability in predicting the outcomes of Alice's pair of non-commuting observables with better precision, even when they share an entangled state. As a further consequence, the quantum advantage envisaged for the construction of security proofs in key distribution is lost, when Bob's measurements are restricted to the joint measurability regime.

H. S. Karthik; A. R. Usha Devi; A. K. Rajagopal

2014-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

175

Deconvolution of variability and uncertainty in the Cassini safety analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The standard method for propagation of uncertainty in a risk analysis requires rerunning the risk calculation numerous times with model parameters chosen from their uncertainty distributions. This was not practical for the Cassini nuclear safety analysis, due to the computationally intense nature of the risk calculation. A less computationally intense procedure was developed which requires only two calculations for each accident case. The first of these is the standard 'best-estimate' calculation. In the second calculation, variables and parameters change simultaneously. The mathematical technique of deconvolution is then used to separate out an uncertainty multiplier distribution, which can be used to calculate distribution functions at various levels of confidence.

Kampas, Frank J.; Loughin, Stephen [Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space, P.O. Box 8555, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101 (United States); WAM Systems, 650 Loraine Street, Ardmore, Pennsylvania 19003 (United States)

1998-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

176

Evaluation of expanded uncertainties in luminous intensity and illuminance calibrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Detector-based calibrating methods and expressions for calculation of photometric uncertainties related to uncertainties in the calibrations of luminous intensity of a light source, illuminance responsivity of a photometer head, and calibration factors of an illuminance meter are discussed. These methods permit luminous intensity calibrations of incandescent light sources, luminous responsivity calibrations of photometer heads, and calibration factors of illuminance meters to be carried out with relative expanded uncertainties (with a level of confidence of 95.45%) of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6%, respectively.

Sametoglu, Ferhat

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

Accardi, Alberto [Hampton U., JLAB

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

2F Evaporator CP class instrumentation uncertainties evaluations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

There are two instrumentation systems in the 2F Evaporator facilities (bldg. 242-16F) that are classified as the Critical Protection (CP). They are the Evaporator Pot Temperature instrumentations and Steam Condensate Gamma Monitor. The pot instrumentation consists of two interrelated circuits sharing the same temperature sensor and transducer. They are the high alarm and interlock circuit and the recorder circuit. The gamma monitor instrumentation consists of four interrelated circuits sharing the same scintillation detector. They are the gamma alarm and interlock circuit, failure alarm and interlock circuit, condensate cesium activity recorder circuit, and condensate americium activity recorder circuit. The resulting uncertainties for the instrument circuits are tabulated. (GHH)

Hwang, E.

1994-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

180

Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium.

S.E. Langton; A. Buijs; J. Pencer

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Uncertainty Quantification Tools for Multiphase Flow Simulations using MFIX  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification Tools for Multiphase Flow Simulations using MFIX X. Hu 1 , A. Passalacqua 2 , R. O. Fox 1 1 Iowa State University, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Ames, IA 2 Iowa State University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ames, IA Project Manager: Steve Seachman University Coal Research and Historically Black Colleges and Universities and Other Minority Institutions Contractors Review Conference Pittsburgh, June 11 th - 13 th 2013 X. Hu, A. Passalacqua, R. O. Fox (ISU) Uncertainty quantification DOE-UCR Review Meeting 2013 1 / 44 Outline 1 Introduction and background 2 Project objectives and milestones 3 Technical progress Univariate case Multivariate case Code structure 4 Future work X. Hu, A. Passalacqua, R. O. Fox (ISU) Uncertainty quantification DOE-UCR Review Meeting 2013 2 / 44 Introduction and background Outline 1 Introduction

182

A Stochastic Nonlinear Water Wave Model for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A major challenge in next-generation industrial applications is to improve numerical analysis by quantifying uncertainties in predictions. In this work we present a stochastic formulation of a fully nonlinear and dispersive potential flow water wave model for the probabilistic description of the evolution waves. This model is discretized using the Stochastic Collocation Method (SCM), which provides an approximate surrogate of the model. This can be used to accurately and efficiently estimate the probability distribution of the unknown time dependent stochastic solution after the forward propagation of uncertainties. We revisit experimental benchmarks often used for validation of deterministic water wave models. We do this using a fully nonlinear and dispersive model and show how uncertainty in the model input can influence the model output. Based on numerical experiments and assumed uncertainties in boundary data, our analysis reveals that some of the known discrepancies from deterministic simulation in compa...

Bigoni, Daniele; Eskilsson, Claes

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

A robust optimization model for a supply chain under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......2010). Although handling uncertainty is an...interesting framework for handling stochastic logistics...In N numbers) Material Flow Material Flow Fig. 1. A schematic diagram of the logistics...which is capable of handling demand and transportation......

Sara Hosseini; Reza Zanjirani Farahani; Wout Dullaert; Birger Raa; Mohsen Rajabi; Alireza Bolhari

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...about risk management. Thus, climate science supports...as climate science provides a basis for risk management much deeper...practice approaches for characterizing...in climate science and policy...uncertainty management in model-based...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

The Uncertainty Principle Determines the Nonlocality of Quantum Mechanics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Wehner S. , Relaxed uncertainty relations and information processing . QIC 9 , 801 ( 2009 ). Abstract 5 Paw?owski M. ., Information causality as a physical principle . Nature 461 , 1101 ( 2009 ). 10.1038/nature08400 19847260 6 W. van Dam...

Jonathan Oppenheim; Stephanie Wehner

2010-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

187

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty++++ Afzal Siddiqui  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty++++ Afzal Siddiqui University's decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long. KEYWORDS. OR in Energy; Distributed Generation; Real Options; Optimal Investment. 1. INTRODUCTION

Guillas, Serge

188

Analysis and reduction of chemical models under uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While models of combustion processes have been successful in developing engines with improved fuel economy, more costly simulations are required to accurately model pollution chemistry. These simulations will also involve significant parametric uncertainties. Computational singular perturbation (CSP) and polynomial chaos-uncertainty quantification (PC-UQ) can be used to mitigate the additional computational cost of modeling combustion with uncertain parameters. PC-UQ was used to interrogate and analyze the Davis-Skodje model, where the deterministic parameter in the model was replaced with an uncertain parameter. In addition, PC-UQ was combined with CSP to explore how model reduction could be combined with uncertainty quantification to understand how reduced models are affected by parametric uncertainty.

Oxberry, Geoff; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

An efficient Bayesian approach to history matching and uncertainty assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Conditioning reservoir models to production data and assessment of uncertainty can be done by Bayesian theorem. This inverse problem can be computationally intensive, generally requiring orders of magnitude more computation time compared...

Yuan, Chengwu

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

190

The Decision Rule Approach to Optimisation under Uncertainty ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robust Optimisation, Decision Rules, Optimisation under Uncertainty. ... in turn lead to the underperformance or complete breakdown of production processes. Yet,. 1 ...... 5: Energy Systems Engineering, M. Georgiadis, E. Kikkinides, and E.

2011-12-21T23:59:59.000Z

191

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements Sotiris, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed. Keywords: Air pollution; Model 535265 1. Introduction Mathematical modelling has been widely used for assessing ambient air quality

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

192

On the Predictive Uncertainty of a Distributed Hydrologic Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We use models to simulate the real world mainly for prediction purposes. However, since any model is a simplification of reality, there remains a great deal of uncertainty even after the calibration of model parameters. The models identifiability...

Cho, Huidae

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

193

Managing uncertainty: information and insurance under the risk of starvation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...In an uncertain world, animals face...and insurance (energy reserves) under starvation...programming|energy reserves| Managing uncertainty...In an uncertain world, animals face...and insurance (energy reserves) under starvation...

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Optimum maintenance strategy under uncertainty in the lifetime distribution  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The problem of determining the optimal maintenance strategy for a machine given its lifetime distribution has been studied extensively. Solutions to this problem are outlined in the academic literature, prescribed in professional handbooks, implemented in reliability engineering software systems and widely used in practice. These solutions typically assume that the lifetime distribution and its parameter values are known with certainty, although this is usually not the case in practice. In this paper we study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the optimum age-based maintenance strategy. The effect of uncertainty is evaluated by considering both a theoretical uniform lifetime distribution and a more realistic Weibull lifetime distribution. The results show that admitting to the uncertainty does influence the optimal maintenance age and also provides a quantifiable cost benefit. The results can help maintenance managers in making maintenance decisions under uncertainty, and also in deciding when it is worthwhile to invest in advanced data improvement procedures.

Bram de Jonge; Warse Klingenberg; Ruud Teunter; Tiedo Tinga

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...

Webster, Mort David.

196

An algorithm for U-Pb isotope dilution data reduction and uncertainty propagation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

High-precision U-Pb geochronology by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry is integral to a variety of Earth science disciplines, but its ultimate resolving power is quantified by the uncertainties of ...

McLean, Noah Morgan

197

Centralizing Data Management with Considerations of Uncertainty and Information-Based Flexibility  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper applies the theory of real options to analyze how the value of information-based flexibility should affect the decision to centralize or decentralize data management under low and high uncertainty. This study ...

Velu, Chander K.

198

Analyzing risk and uncertainty for improving water distribution system security from malevolent water supply contamination events  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pipe network, valve installation, and an emergency purging system. Findings show that reasonable uncertainties in model inputs produce high variability in exposure levels. It is also shown that exposure level distributions experience noticeable...

Torres, Jacob Manuel

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

199

Computer-aided-design of agricultural drains under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

COMPUTER-AIDED-DESIGN OF AGRICULTURAL DRAINS UNDER UNCERTAINTY A Thesis LUIS ALFREDO GARCIA Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&N University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of RASTER OF SCIENCE December... 1985 Major Subject: Civil Engineering COMPUTER-AIDED-DESIGN OP AGRICULTURAL DRAINS UNDER UNCERTAINTY A Thesis by LUIS ALFREDO GARCIA Approved as to style and content by: Kenne M rzepek Wc (Member) Donald McDonald (Head of Department...

Garcia, Luis Alfredo

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

200

Environmental uncertainty and social value orientation in resource dilemmas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

research has shown that both environmental uncertainty and social value orientation (cooperators vs. noncooperators) will affect harvest sizes from a common resource pool. However, these two variables have not been simultaneously explored.... In the present experiment, 172 subjects harvested units from a common resource pool over 20 twenty trials. It was predicted that noncooperators would harvest more than cooperators (Hypothesis 1), an interaction between social value orientation and uncertainty...

Roch, Sylvia Gabriele

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Calculation and Verification of Blood Ethanol Measurement Uncertainty for Headspace Gas Chromatography  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......Calculation and Verification of Blood Ethanol Measurement Uncertainty for...Calculation and verification of blood ethanol measurement uncertainty for...2% of the BAC measurement. Verification of the estimate......

Jason H. Sklerov; Fiona J. Couper

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty AfzalEnergy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty ?DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected

Siddiqui, Afzal

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

SciTech Connect: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties...  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by...

204

E-Print Network 3.0 - assessing spatial uncertainty Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty analysis assesses... in evaluating alternatives. Concern about uncertainty in spatial data and analyses is not new, but systematic... A thorough understanding of...

205

Assessing the Role of Operating, Passenger, and Infrastructure Costs in Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ICKET . Aircraft Category Fuel Price (FP) Coefficient SL*FPin Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty Megan Smirti,in Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty Megan Smirti,

Smirti, Megan; Hansen, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Uncertainty estimation improves energy measurement and verification procedures  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

Travis Walter; Phillip N. Price; Michael D. Sohn

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

2014-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

209

Thermal hydraulic limits analysis using statistical propagation of parametric uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The MIT Research Reactor (MITR) is evaluating the conversion from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enrichment uranium (LEU) fuel. In addition to the fuel element re-design, a reactor power upgraded from 6 MW to 7 MW is proposed in order to maintain the same reactor performance of the HEU core. Previous approach in analyzing the impact of engineering uncertainties on thermal hydraulic limits via the use of engineering hot channel factors (EHCFs) was unable to explicitly quantify the uncertainty and confidence level in reactor parameters. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology for MITR thermal hydraulic limits analysis by statistically combining engineering uncertainties with an aim to eliminate unnecessary conservatism inherent in traditional analyses. This method was employed to analyze the Limiting Safety System Settings (LSSS) for the MITR, which is the avoidance of the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB). Key parameters, such as coolant channel tolerances and heat transfer coefficients, were considered as normal distributions using Oracle Crystal Ball to calculate ONB. The LSSS power is determined with 99.7% confidence level. The LSSS power calculated using this new methodology is 9.1 MW, based on core outlet coolant temperature of 60 deg. C, and primary coolant flow rate of 1800 gpm, compared to 8.3 MW obtained from the analytical method using the EHCFs with same operating conditions. The same methodology was also used to calculate the safety limit (SL) for the MITR, conservatively determined using onset of flow instability (OFI) as the criterion, to verify that adequate safety margin exists between LSSS and SL. The calculated SL is 10.6 MW, which is 1.5 MW higher than LSSS. (authors)

Chiang, K. Y. [Nuclear Science and Engineering Dept., Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Hu, L. W. [Nuclear Reactor Laboratory, Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Forget, B. [Nuclear Science and Engineering Dept., Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

MONTE-CARLO BURNUP CALCULATION UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AND PROPAGATION DETERMINATION  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

MONTEBURNS is a Monte-Carlo depletion routine utilizing MCNP and ORIGEN 2.2. Uncertainties exist in the MCNP transport calculation, but this information is not passed to the depletion calculation in ORIGEN or saved. To quantify this transport uncertainty and determine how it propagates between burnup steps, a statistical analysis of a multiple repeated depletion runs is performed. The reactor model chosen is the Oak Ridge Research Reactor (ORR) in a single assembly, infinite lattice configuration. This model was burned for a 25.5 day cycle broken down into three steps. The output isotopics as well as effective multiplication factor (k-effective) were tabulated and histograms were created at each burnup step using the Scott Method to determine the bin width. It was expected that the gram quantities and k-effective histograms would produce normally distributed results since they were produced from a Monte-Carlo routine, but some of results do not. The standard deviation at each burnup step was consistent between fission product isotopes as expected, while the uranium isotopes created some unique results. The variation in the quantity of uranium was small enough that, from the reaction rate MCNP tally, round off error occurred producing a set of repeated results with slight variation. Statistical analyses were performed using the {chi}{sup 2} test against a normal distribution for several isotopes and the k-effective results. While the isotopes failed to reject the null hypothesis of being normally distributed, the {chi}{sup 2} statistic grew through the steps in the k-effective test. The null hypothesis was rejected in the later steps. These results suggest, for a high accuracy solution, MCNP cell material quantities less than 100 grams and greater kcode parameters are needed to minimize uncertainty propagation and minimize round off effects.

Nichols, T.; Sternat, M.; Charlton, W.

2011-05-08T23:59:59.000Z

211

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the seismic scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the seismic ground motion scenario class and the seismic fault displacement scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed for the seismic ground motion scenario class: (i) engineered barrier system conditions; (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone; (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository; and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. In addition, expected dose to the RMEI for the seismic fault displacement scenario class is also considered. The present article is the part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

C.W. Hansen; G.A. Behie; A. Bier; K.M. Brooks; Y. Chen; J.C. Helton; S.P. Hommel; K.P. Lee; B. Lester; P.D. Mattie; S. Mehta; S.P. Miller; C.J. Sallaberry; S.D. Sevougian; P. Vo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the igneous scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the igneous intrusive scenario class and the igneous eruptive scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed for the igneous intrusive scenario class: (i) engineered barrier system conditions, (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. In addition, expected dose to the RMEI for the igneous eruptive scenario class is also considered. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

C.J. Sallaberry; G.A. Behie; A. Bier; K.M. Brooks; Y. Chen; C.W. Hansen; J.C. Helton; S.P. Hommel; K.P. Lee; B. Lester; P.D. Mattie; S. Mehta; S.P. Miller; S.D. Sevougian; P. Vo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the early waste package failure scenario class and the early drip shield failure scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) engineered barrier system conditions, (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

C.W. Hansen; G.A. Behie; A. Bier; K.M. Brooks; Y. Chen; J.C. Helton; S.P. Hommel; K.P. Lee; B. Lester; P.D. Mattie; S. Mehta; S.P. Miller; C.J. Sallaberry; S.D. Sevougian; P. Vo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Polymer flooding design and optimization under economic uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We use a streamline-based simulator that accurately captures non-Newtonian rheology and controls numerical dispersion to investigate polymer-flooding design. First, we develop and test a parallel design algorithm to optimize polymer floods with respect to net present value in terms of slug size, polymer concentration, and initiation; in which, simulations are run simultaneously and the results are combined through scaling of optimal slug size. In terms of optimal strategies, the optimization results illustrate that polymer-flooding design with respect to concentration, slug size, and initiation is more intuitive than earlier expected. It is always beneficial to start polymer flooding as soon as possible preferably before any waterflooding. The optimal slug size is close to being continuous. The optimal concentration is generally high and represents a balance between mobility gains and injectivity losses. Second, we quantify the impact of uncertainty on both the design and profitability of polymer flooding. This serves as a guide to associated data acquisition efforts, where pre-polymer flooding initiation, efforts can be focused on reducing uncertainties of high impact factors thereby increasing the probability of success.

Abdulkareem M. AlSofi; Martin J. Blunt

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Assessing uncertainties in the relationship between inhaled particle  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Assessing uncertainties in the relationship between inhaled particle Assessing uncertainties in the relationship between inhaled particle concentration, internal deposition and health effects, Chapter 9 Title Assessing uncertainties in the relationship between inhaled particle concentration, internal deposition and health effects, Chapter 9 Publication Type Book Chapter Year of Publication 2005 Authors Price, Phillip N. Secondary Authors Ruzer, Lev S., and Naomi H. Harley Book Title Aerosols Handbook: Measurement, Dosimetry and Health Effects Chapter Chapter Pagination 157-188 Publisher CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL Abstract The question that ultimately motivates most aerosol inhalation research is: for a given inhaled atmosphere, what health effects will result in a specified population? To attempt to address this question, quantitative research on inhaled aerosols has been performed for at least fifty years (Landahl et al, 1951). The physical factors that determine particle deposition have been determined, lung morphology has been quantified (particularly for adults), models of total particle deposition have been created and validated, and a large variety of inhalation experiments have been performed. However many basic questions remain, some of which are identified by the U.S. Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (NRC 1998a) as high-priority research areas. Among these are: What are the quantitative relationships between outdoor concentrations measured at stationary monitoring stations, and actual personal exposures? What are the exposures to biologically important constituents of particulate matter that cause responses in potentially susceptible subpopulations and the general population? What is the role of physicochemical characteristics of particulate matter in causing adverse health effects? As these questions show, in spite of significant progress in all areas of aerosol research, many of the most important practical questions remain unanswered or inadequately answered.In this chapter, we discuss the sources and magnitudes of error that hinder the ability to answer basic questions concerning the health effects of inhaled aerosols. We first consider the phenomena that affect the epidemiological studies, starting with studies of residential radon and moving on to fine particle air pollution. Next we discuss the major uncertainties in physical and physiological modeling of the causal chain that leads from inhaled aerosol concentration, to deposition in the airway, to time-dependent dose (that is, the concentration of particles at a given point in the lungs as function of time), to physiological effects, and finally to health effect.

216

Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation for an oscillating-vessel viscosity measurement  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper discusses the initial design and evaluation of a high temperature viscosity measurement system with the focus on the uncertainty assessment. Numerical simulation of the viscometer is used to estimate viscosity uncertainties through the Monte Carlo method. The simulation computes the system response for a particular set of inputs (viscosity, moment of inertia, spring constant and hysteretic damping), and the viscosity is calculated using two methods: the Roscoe approximate solution and a numerical-fit method. For numerical fitting, a residual function of the logarithmic decay of oscillation amplitude and oscillation period is developed to replace the residual function of angular oscillation, which is mathematically stiff. The results of this study indicate that the method using computational solution of the equations and fitting for the parameters should be used, since it almost always out-performs the Roscoe approximation in uncertainty. The hysteretic damping and spring stiffness uncertainties translate into viscosity uncertainties almost directly, whereas the moment of inertial and vessel-height uncertainties are magnified approximately two-fold. As the hysteretic damping increases, so does the magnification of its uncertainty, therefore it should be minimized in the system design. The result of this study provides a general guide for the design and application of all oscillation-vessel viscosity measurement systems.

K. Horne; H. Ban; R. Fielding; R. Kennedy

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Comparison of nuclear data uncertainty propagation methodologies for PWR burn-up simulations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Several methodologies using different levels of approximations have been developed for propagating nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear burn-up simulations. Most methods fall into the two broad classes of Monte Carlo approaches, which are exact apart from statistical uncertainties but require additional computation time, and first order perturbation theory approaches, which are efficient for not too large numbers of considered response functions but only applicable for sufficiently small nuclear data uncertainties. Some methods neglect isotopic composition uncertainties induced by the depletion steps of the simulations, others neglect neutron flux uncertainties, and the accuracy of a given approximation is often very hard to quantify. In order to get a better sense of the impact of different approximations, this work aims to compare results obtained based on different approximate methodologies with an exact method, namely the NUDUNA Monte Carlo based approach developed by AREVA GmbH. In addition, the impact of different covariance data is studied by comparing two of the presently most complete nuclear data covariance libraries (ENDF/B-VII.1 and SCALE 6.0), which reveals a high dependency of the uncertainty estimates on the source of covariance data. The burn-up benchmark Exercise I-1b proposed by the OECD expert group "Benchmarks for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) for the Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" is studied as an example application. The burn-up simulations are performed with the SCALE 6.0 tool suite.

Carlos Javier Diez; Oliver Buss; Axel Hoefer; Dieter Porsch; Oscar Cabellos

2014-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

218

Uncertainty analysis of LBLOCA for Advanced Heavy Water Reactor  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The main objective of safety analysis is to demonstrate in a robust way that all safety requirements are met, i.e. sufficient margins exist between real values of important parameters and their threshold values at which damage of the barriers against release of radioactivity would occur. As stated in the IAEA Safety Requirements for Design of \\{NPPs\\} a safety analysis of the plant design shall be conducted in which methods of both deterministic and probabilistic analysis shall be applied. It is required that the computer programs, analytical methods and plant models used in the safety analysis shall be verified and validated, and adequate consideration shall be given to uncertainties. Uncertainties are present in calculations due to the computer codes, initial and boundary conditions, plant state, fuel parameters, scaling and numerical solution algorithm. All conservative approaches, still widely used, were introduced to cover uncertainties due to limited capability for modelling and understanding of physical phenomena at the early stages of safety analysis. The results obtained by this approach are quite unrealistic and the level of conservatism is not fully known. Another approach is the use of Best Estimate (BE) codes with realistic initial and boundary conditions. If this approach is selected, it should be based on statistically combined uncertainties for plant initial and boundary conditions, assumptions and code models. The current trends are going into direction of the best estimate code with some conservative assumptions of the system with realistic input data with uncertainty analysis. The BE analysis with evaluation of uncertainties offers, in addition, a way to quantify the existing plant safety margins. Its broader use in the future is therefore envisaged, even though it is not always feasible because of the difficulty of quantifying code uncertainties with sufficiently narrow range for every phenomenon and for each accident sequence. In this paper, uncertainty analysis for the Large Break LOCA (200% Inlet Header Break) of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) has been carried out. The uncertainty analysis was carried out for the peak cladding temperature (PCT), based on the two different methods i.e., Wilks method and the response surface technique. Their findings have also been compared.

A. Srivastava; H.G. Lele; A.K. Ghosh; H.S. Kushwaha

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Visual Scanning Hartmann Optical Tester (VSHOT) Uncertainty Analysis (Milestone Report)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In 1997, an uncertainty analysis was conducted of the Video Scanning Hartmann Optical Tester (VSHOT). In 2010, we have completed a new analysis, based primarily on the geometric optics of the system, and it shows sensitivities to various design and operational parameters. We discuss sources of error with measuring devices, instrument calibrations, and operator measurements for a parabolic trough mirror panel test. These help to guide the operator in proper setup, and help end-users to understand the data they are provided. We include both the systematic (bias) and random (precision) errors for VSHOT testing and their contributions to the uncertainty. The contributing factors we considered in this study are: target tilt; target face to laser output distance; instrument vertical offset; laser output angle; distance between the tool and the test piece; camera calibration; and laser scanner. These contributing factors were applied to the calculated slope error, focal length, and test article tilt that are generated by the VSHOT data processing. Results show the estimated 2-sigma uncertainty in slope error for a parabolic trough line scan test to be +/-0.2 milliradians; uncertainty in the focal length is +/- 0.1 mm, and the uncertainty in test article tilt is +/- 0.04 milliradians.

Gray, A.; Lewandowski, A.; Wendelin, T.

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations: what it takes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The uncertainty principle being a cornerstone of quantum mechanics, it is surprising that in nearly 90 years there have been no direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations. This lacuna was due to the absence of two essential ingredients: appropriate measures of measurement error (and disturbance), and precise formulations of such relations that are {\\em universally valid}and {\\em directly testable}. We formulate two distinct forms of direct tests, based on different measures of error. We present a prototype protocol for a direct test of measurement uncertainty relations in terms of {\\em value deviation errors} (hitherto considered nonfeasible), highlighting the lack of universality of these relations. This shows that the formulation of universal, directly testable measurement uncertainty relations for {\\em state-dependent} error measures remains an important open problem. Recent experiments that were claimed to constitute invalidations of Heisenberg's error-disturbance relation are shown to conform with the spirit of Heisenberg's principle if interpreted as direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations for error measures that quantify {\\em distances between observables}.

Paul Busch; Neil Stevens

2015-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

Li, J.; McNelis, D. [Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (United States); Yim, M.S. [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Long-Term Planning for Nuclear Energy Systems Under Deep Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ethics, Implementa- tion, Uncertainties. Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for Economic Co- Operation and Development,

Kim, Lance Kyungwoo

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Understanding Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with the Electric Power System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with themodels and datasets. Photovoltaics fall under the broader

Mills, Andrew

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

226

Deconvolution of variability and uncertainty in the Cassini safety analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The standard method for propagation of uncertainty in a risk analysis requires rerunning the risk calculation numerous times with model parameters chosen from their uncertainty distributions. This was not practical for the Cassini nuclear safety analysis, due to the computationally intense nature of the risk calculation. A less computationally intense procedure was developed which requires only two calculations for each accident case. The first of these is the standard {open_quotes}best-estimate{close_quotes} calculation. In the second calculation, variables and parameters change simultaneously. The mathematical technique of deconvolution is then used to separate out an uncertainty multiplier distribution, which can be used to calculate distribution functions at various levels of confidence. {copyright} {ital 1998 American Institute of Physics.}

Kampas, F.J. [Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space, P.O. Box 8555, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101 (United States); Loughin, S. [WAM Systems, 650 Loraine Street, Ardmore, Pennsylvania 19003 (United States)

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)

Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

A novel belief function reasoning approach to MCDM under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a novel belief function reasoning approach to the multiple criteria decision-making problem under uncertainty. In contrast to exist approaches, which make decisions based on the expected utility values derived directly from the combined belief function distributions, we introduce an alternative two-level reasoning transferable belief model approach to the aggregation and decision-making phases. Within this framework, the analyst can combine the beliefs regarding various sub-criteria at the credal level, and calculate the expected utility values for decision making at the pignistic level based on real probability distributions. We also propose a measure of uncertainty to capture the degrees of total uncertainty involved in different belief assessments. This measure can assist the decision maker in making rational decisions based on incomplete information.

Yuliang Fan; Anne T.A. Nguyen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Using dual decomposition for solving problems involving data uncertainty |  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

dual decomposition for solving problems involving data uncertainty dual decomposition for solving problems involving data uncertainty August 14, 2013 Tweet EmailPrint Many applications mdash; energy, routing, scheduling, and production planning, for example mdash; involve problems in which some or all of the data may not be known when decisions under uncertainty must be made. In such cases, approximations with stochastic mixed-integer programming models are often used. Two approaches have been suggested to address such problems: dual decomposition (DD) and branch-and-price (BP). Both approaches divide the problem into two or more subproblems, together with linear constraints that enforce agreement between solutions to the different problems through a series of iterations. Unfortunately, both approaches also suffer from lack

231

Relation between wave-particle duality and quantum uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We present a study of the relation between wave-particle duality and quantum uncertainty in a two-path interferometer and derive equalities and inequalities involving the visibility (representing wave-like behavior), the predictability (representing particle-like behavior), and their variances. We experimentally demonstrate that, for a single photon in a Mach-Zehnder interferometer, these quantities are related via an equation that connects both duality and uncertainty. This relation holds for the single-photon source prepared either in a pure state or a mixed state.

Hong-Yu Liu; Jie-Hui Huang; Jiang-Rui Gao; M. Suhail Zubairy; Shi-Yao Zhu

2012-02-06T23:59:59.000Z

232

Uncertainties in Air Exchange using Continuous-Injection, Long-Term Sampling Tracer-Gas Methods  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The PerFluorocarbon Tracer (PFT) method is a low-cost approach commonly used for measuring air exchange in buildings using tracer gases. It is a specific application of the more general Continuous-Injection, Long-Term Sampling (CILTS) method. The technique is widely used but there has been little work on understanding the uncertainties (both precision and bias) associated with its use, particularly given that it is typically deployed by untrained or lightly trained people to minimize experimental costs. In this article we will conduct a first-principles error analysis to estimate the uncertainties and then compare that analysis to CILTS measurements that were over-sampled, through the use of multiple tracers and emitter and sampler distribution patterns, in three houses. We find that the CILTS method can have an overall uncertainty of 10-15percent in ideal circumstances, but that even in highly controlled field experiments done by trained experimenters expected uncertainties are about 20percent. In addition, there are many field conditions (such as open windows) where CILTS is not likely to provide any quantitative data. Even avoiding the worst situations of assumption violations CILTS should be considered as having a something like a ?factor of two? uncertainty for the broad field trials that it is typically used in. We provide guidance on how to deploy CILTS and design the experiment to minimize uncertainties.

Sherman, Max H.; Walker, Iain S.; Lunden, Melissa M.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications on the global $\\theta_{13}$ knowledge today. First, Double Chooz, in its final configuration, is the only experiment benefiting from a negligible reactor flux error due to a $\\sim$90\\% geometrical suppression. Second, Daya Bay and RENO could benefit from their partial geometrical cancellation, yielding a potential $\\sim$50\\% error suppression, thus significantly improving the global $\\theta_{13}$ precision today. And third, we illustrate the rationale behind further error suppression upon the exploitation of the inter-reactor error correlations, so far neglected. So, our publication is a key step forward in the context of high precision neutrino reactor experiments providing insight on the suppression of their intrinsic flux error uncertainty, thus affecting past and current experimental results, as well as the design of future experiments.

Andi Cucoanes; Pau Novella; Anatael Cabrera; Muriel Fallot; Anthony Onillon; Michel Obolensky; Frederic Yermia

2015-01-02T23:59:59.000Z

235

A Cooperative Approach for Job Shop Scheduling under Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

control, consists to use a two-level resolution scheme: an off-line scheduling level builds upA Cooperative Approach for Job Shop Scheduling under Uncertainties C. BRIANDa,1 , S. OURARIb and B on job shop scheduling problems in a cooperative environment. Unlike classical deterministic approaches

Briand, Cyril

236

Mathematical treatment of uncertainty in the speech recognition process  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

One of the main difficulties in the speech recognition process is the treatment of the imprecisions around it. They have origin in the differences between the articulatory system of each person and the physical properties of the sound propagation. Moreover, ... Keywords: Hidden Markov model, fuzzy, interval analysis, mathematical treatment, speech recognition, uncertainty

Hesdras Oliveira Viana; Diogo Pereira Silva De Novais; Roque Mendes Prado Trindade

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Early Power Grid Verification Under Circuit Current Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Early Power Grid Verification Under Circuit Current Uncertainties Imad A. Ferzli Department of ECE Eindhoven, The Netherlands lars@magma-da.com ABSTRACT As power grid safety becomes increasingly important in modern integrated circuits, so does the need to start power grid verifica- tion early in the design cycle

Najm, Farid N.

238

Rethinking CCS Strategies for Technology Development in Times of Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.S. CCS policy, and to provide a realistic roadmap for technology development, this thesis providesRethinking CCS ­ Strategies for Technology Development in Times of Uncertainty by Jan Eide B in Technology and Policy at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2013 © 2013 Massachusetts Institute

239

Number-phase uncertainty relations: Verification by balanced homodyne measurement  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

It is shown that fundamental uncertainty relations between photon number and canonical phase of a single-mode optical field can be verified by means of a balanced homodyne measurement. All the relevant quantities can be sampled directly from the measured phase-dependent quadrature distribution.

T. Opatrn; M. Dakna; D.-G. Welsch

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Performance Measurement Under Increasing Environmental Uncertainty In The Context of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-2 Fuzzy Logic Based Robotic Sailing Naisan Benatar, Uwe Aickelin and Jonathan M. Garibaldi Member on fuzzy logic, operating under uncertainty, is a sub- ject area which has been somewhat ignored to be drawn. Keywords: Interval Type-2 Fuzzy, Robot Boat control, Fuzzy Control, Performance measures

Aickelin, Uwe

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Improved lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation for the distinguished measurements of two observables in a d-dimensional Hilbert space for d up to 5. This bound provides an improvement over the best one yet available. The feasibility of the obtained bound presenting an improvement for higher dimensions is also discussed.

Jafarpour, Mojtaba; Sabour, Abbass [Physics Department, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

242

Uncertainties on alpha_S in global PDF analyses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We determine the uncertainty on the strong coupling alpha_S due to the experimental errors on the data fitted in global analysis of hard-scattering data, within the standard framework of leading-twist fixed-order collinear factorisation in the MSbar scheme, finding that alpha_S(M_Z^2) = 0.1202^{+0.0012}_{-0.0015} at next-to-leading order and alpha_S(M_Z^2) = 0.1171^{+0.0014}_{-0.0014} at next-to-next-to-leading order. We investigate the interplay between uncertainties on alpha_S and uncertainties on parton distribution functions (PDFs). We show, for the first time, how both these sources of uncertainty can be accounted for simultaneously in calculations of cross sections, and we provide eigenvector PDF sets with different fixed alpha_S values to allow further studies by the general user. We illustrate the application of these PDF sets by calculating cross sections for W, Z, Higgs boson and inclusive jet production at the Tevatron and LHC.

Martin, A D; Thorne, R S; Watt, G

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

244

Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty Profiles  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......research-article Section A ORIGINAL ARTICLES Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty...In practice, the responsiveness of a web-service fluctuates with demand; during...effects of stress on an orchestration of web-services; it describes a strategic situation......

Joaquim Gabarro; Maria Serna; Alan Stewart

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Improved lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We present a lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation for the distinguished measurements of two observables in a d-dimensional Hilbert space for d up to 5. This bound provides an improvement over the best one yet available. The feasibility of the obtained bound presenting an improvement for higher dimensions is also discussed.

Mojtaba Jafarpour and Abbass Sabour

2011-09-08T23:59:59.000Z

247

Partition Testing versus Random Testing: the Influence of Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Partition Testing versus Random Testing: the Influence of Uncertainty Walter J. Gutjahr Department of Statistics, O.R. and Computer Science University of Vienna Abstract --- The paper compares partition testing and random testing on the assumption that program failure rates are not known with certainty before testing

Gutjahr, Walter

248

The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, inflation, variation of GDP growth, variation of inflation Intl: property rights protection, rule of law.340 international sample diff = 0.408 Result The link between investment and stock prices is even weaker whenThe Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and Investment Efficiency

Lin, Xiaodong

249

UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and required corrections for remaining water content. Frozen sediments did not lose Hg during a 72-day storage of the analysis (while adhering to strict QA/QC criteria) produced compounded uncertainties of ±11 and ±29% in Hg to correctly evaluate trends and remediation efforts. Keywords: Florida Everglades, Lake Erie, mercury

Gottgens, Hans

250

Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation Adrien Nguyen Huu1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation Adrien Nguyen Huu1 McMaster University as a raw model of regulation in a duopoly model of preemp- tive investment. We recall the rigorous option theory for new investment valuation. The latter uses recent methods from stochastic finance

251

Spectrum Investment with Uncertainty Based on Prospect Theory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Spectrum Investment with Uncertainty Based on Prospect Theory Junlin Yu, Man Hon Cheung, and Jianwei Huang Abstract--We study a secondary wireless operator's spectrum investment problem under is uncertain. We formulate such a hybrid spectrum investment problem as a two-stage optimization prob- lem

Huang, Jianwei

252

POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

de­ composition. Numerical results are re­ ported for realistic data from a German power utility. Keywords: Power scheduling, uncertain elec­ trical load, stochastic Lagrangian decomposi­ tion, scenarioPOWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO­THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Carøe 1 , M.P. Nowak 2 , W. R

Römisch, Werner

253

Uncertainty measures of rough set prediction Ivo Dntsch  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty measures of rough set prediction Ivo Düntsch School of Information and Software in rough set data analysis, the approximation quality, is of limited value when there is a choice of competing models for predicting a decision variable. In keeping within the rough set philosophy of non

Düntsch, Ivo

254

Electronic Annex -2 Uncertainty in Paleohydrologic Reconstructions from Molecular D  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calculations Using the Electronic Spreadsheet A dataset of hydrogen isotope measurements are used to illustrate1 Electronic Annex -2 Uncertainty in Paleohydrologic Reconstructions from Molecular D Example how to use the calculation spreadsheet that accompanies this manuscript. The example dataset includes

Polissar, Pratigya J.

255

Equivalent realizations for uncertain systems with an IQC uncertainty description  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper considers uncertain systems in terms of their corresponding system input-output behavior. The paper develops a necessary and sufficient condition for the input-output behavior of a given uncertain system to be contained in the input-output ... Keywords: Equivalent realizations, Input-output behavior, Integral quadratic constraints, Uncertain systems, Uncertainty modeling

Ian R. Petersen

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent in water distribution systems con- cern reservoir(s) management with associated pump scheduling

Bargiela, Andrzej

257

Enclosure 2 DOE's Position on Dose Rate "Measurement Uncertainty"  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainty concerns, as cited in their Technical Support Document (TSD), "Review of DOE Planned Change radiation survey instruments used to measure radiation dose rates in the field from waste containers are needed to provide this protection to workers. The purpose of these surface dose rate measurements

258

Modelling of Uncertainties with Modelica Daniel Bouskela Audrey Jardin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Modelling of Uncertainties with Modelica Daniel Bouskela Audrey Jardin EDF R&D 6 quai Watier, 78401 by physical models and sensor measurements, the accuracy of the knowledge of the state of the system can to be solved directly in the Modelica model. They also apply to model processing: what are the pieces

Zhao, Yuxiao

259

Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives Jinghe Zhang unit (PMU), developed in the 1980s, is considered to be one of the most important devices in the future of power systems. While PMU measurements currently cover fewer than 1% of the nodes in the U.S. power grid

Bishop, Gary

260

Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav.ntnu.no) Abstract: The information content in measurements of offshore oil and gas production is often low, and when in the context of offshore oil and gas fields, can be considered the total output of production wells, a mass

Johansen, Tor Arne

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Stochastic Programming of Vehicle to Building Interactions with Uncertainty  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Stochastic Programming of Vehicle to Building Interactions with Uncertainty Stochastic Programming of Vehicle to Building Interactions with Uncertainty in PEVs Driving for a Medium Office Building Title Stochastic Programming of Vehicle to Building Interactions with Uncertainty in PEVs Driving for a Medium Office Building Publication Type Conference Paper LBNL Report Number LBNL-6416E Year of Publication 2013 Authors Cardoso, Gonçalo, Michael Stadler, Mohammad Bozchalui, Ratnesh Sharma, Chris Marnay, Ana Barbosa-Póvoa, and Paulo Ferrão Conference Name 39th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society Date Published 10/2013 Conference Location Vienna, Austria Abstract The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM, an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained with the stochastic formulation of the problem.

262

Adjoint-Based Implicit Uncertainty Analysis for Figures of Merit in a Laser Inertial Fusion Engine  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A primary purpose of computational models is to inform design decisions and, in order to make those decisions reliably, the confidence in the results of such models must be estimated. Monte Carlo neutron transport models are common tools for reactor designers. These types of models contain several sources of uncertainty that propagate onto the model predictions. Two uncertainties worthy of note are (1) experimental and evaluation uncertainties of nuclear data that inform all neutron transport models and (2) statistical counting precision, which all results of a Monte Carlo codes contain. Adjoint-based implicit uncertainty analyses allow for the consideration of any number of uncertain input quantities and their effects upon the confidence of figures of merit with only a handful of forward and adjoint transport calculations. When considering a rich set of uncertain inputs, adjoint-based methods remain hundreds of times more computationally efficient than Direct Monte-Carlo methods. The LIFE (Laser Inertial Fusion Energy) engine is a concept being developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Various options exist for the LIFE blanket, depending on the mission of the design. The depleted uranium hybrid LIFE blanket design strives to close the fission fuel cycle without enrichment or reprocessing, while simultaneously achieving high discharge burnups with reduced proliferation concerns. Neutron transport results that are central to the operation of the design are tritium production for fusion fuel, fission of fissile isotopes for energy multiplication, and production of fissile isotopes for sustained power. In previous work, explicit cross-sectional uncertainty analyses were performed for reaction rates related to the figures of merit for the depleted uranium hybrid LIFE blanket. Counting precision was also quantified for both the figures of merit themselves and the cross-sectional uncertainty estimates to gauge the validity of the analysis. All cross-sectional uncertainties were small (0.1-0.8%), bounded counting uncertainties, and were precise with regard to counting precision. Adjoint/importance distributions were generated for the same reaction rates. The current work leverages those adjoint distributions to transition from explicit sensitivities, in which the neutron flux is constrained, to implicit sensitivities, in which the neutron flux responds to input perturbations. This treatment vastly expands the set of data that contribute to uncertainties to produce larger, more physically accurate uncertainty estimates.

Seifried, J E; Fratoni, M; Kramer, K J; Latkowski, J F; Peterson, P F; Powers, J J; Taylor, J M

2010-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

263

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...cost-effective, low-risk responses in high-vulnerability...country, to provide insurance against climate...characterized by strong regional political instability and fragmentation...communicating uncertain climate risks . Nature Clim Change 1 ( 1 ): 35...Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from Central...

Sonja J. Vermeulen; Andrew J. Challinor; Philip K. Thornton; Bruce M. Campbell; Nishadi Eriyagama; Joost M. Vervoort; James Kinyangi; Andy Jarvis; Peter Lderach; Julian Ramirez-Villegas; Kathryn J. Nicklin; Ed Hawkins; Daniel R. Smith

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Harmful routines? Uncertainty in science and conflicting views on routine petroleum operations in Norway  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Offshore petroleum activities are the focus of highly politicised debates globally. Typically, public debate is sparked by catastrophic events, such as the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and decision-making processes fuelled by the assessment of worst-case scenarios. However, everyday routine petroleum operations also impact the marine ecosystems and adjoining socio-economic sectors, but the extent and severity of the impacts are uncertain. This paper takes as its point of departure routine operations and their surrounding uncertainties. Particularly, it focuses on the debates of whether to extend routine petroleum operations in vulnerable and valuable parts of Norway, such as the Lofoten area and the Sula Ridge. These conflicts draw on important and for some, epistemological uncertainties that surround the impacts of routine operations. The paper argues that it is necessary to first highlight these uncertainties, rather than marginalise them, and second, recognise that uncertainties are not simply a scientific challenge, but can be a powerful political tool. This paper unpacks and explores uncertainties associated with three phases of routine operations, that are used to steer political actions: (i) the impacts of seismic surveys on fish and marine mammals; (ii) the impacts of drilling mud and drill cuttings on benthic communities such as deep-sea coral reefs; and (iii) the impacts of produced water on the marine environment. The paper discusses the importance of transparency in addressing these uncertainties, and emphasises the need to implement the precautionary principle in a more participatory way. It thus proposes participatory exercises in order to allow the recognition of the epistemological nature of uncertainties.

Anne Blanchard; Kjellrun Hiis Hauge; Gisle Andersen; Jan Helge Foss; Bjrn Einar Grsvik; Nils Olav Handegard; Matthias Kaiser; Sonnich Meier; Erik Olsen; Frode Vikeb

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

266

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Argonne CNM Highlight: Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Photovoltaic electricity is a rapidly growing renewable energy source and will ultimately assume a major role in global energy production. The cost of solar-generated electricity is typically compared with electricity produced by traditional sources with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculation. Generally, LCOE is treated as a definite number, and the assumptions lying beneath that result are rarely reported or even understood. We shed light on some of the key assumptions and offer a new approach to calculating LCOE for photovoltaics based on input parameter distributions feeding a Monte Carlo simulation. In this framework, the influence of assumptions and confidence intervals becomes clear.

268

Antineutrinos from Earth: A reference model and its uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We predict geoneutrino fluxes in a reference model based on a detailed description of Earths crust and mantle and using the best available information on the abundances of uranium, thorium, and potassium inside Earths layers. We estimate the uncertainties of fluxes corresponding to the uncertainties of the element abundances. In addition to distance integrated fluxes, we also provide the differential fluxes as a function of distance from several sites of experimental interest. Event yields at several locations are estimated and their dependence on the neutrino oscillation parameters is discussed. At Kamioka we predict N(U+Th)=356 events for 1032 proton yr and 100% efficiency assuming sin2(2?)=0.863 and ?m2=7.310-5 eV2. The maximal prediction is 55 events, obtained in a model with fully radiogenic production of the terrestrial heat flow.

Fabio Mantovani; Luigi Carmignani; Gianni Fiorentini; Marcello Lissia

2004-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

269

Uncertainty analysis of densities and isotopics: Handling correlations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper discusses two cases of correlated parameters in uncertainty analyses: (1) the case of measured mass, density, and volume or spatial dimension correlations; and (2) the case of measured material isotopics, where increasing one atom fraction must cause the others to decrease. In the first case, an equation is derived that has a term due to uncertain density, a term due to uncertain dimensions, and a term due to the correlation between density and dimensions. In a numerical test problem, this equation gives the same result as the standard equation that treats mass and dimensions independently. In the case of isotopics, an equation is derived relating the uncertainty due to uncertain isotopic fractions to the sensitivities to isotopic densities, which are easier to calculate. The equation is verified in a test problem. (authors)

Favorite, J. A.; Armstrong, J. C. [X-Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Burr, T. [Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.

Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

1981-02-11T23:59:59.000Z

271

The minimum-uncertainty coherent states for Landau levels  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Glauber minimum-uncertainty coherent states with two variables for Landau levels, based on the representation of Weyl-Heisenberg algebra by two different modes, have been studied about four decades ago. Here, we introduce new two-variable coherent states with minimum uncertainty relationship for Landau levels in three different methods: the infinite unitary representation of su(1, 1) is realized in two different methods, first, by consecutive levels with the same energy gaps and also with the same value for z-angular momentum quantum number, then, by shifting z-angular momentum mode number by two units while the energy level remaining the same. Besides, for su(2), whether by lowest Landau levels or Landau levels with lowest z-angular momentum, just one finite unitary representation is introduced. Having constructed the generalized Klauder-Perelomov coherent states, for any of the three representations, we obtain their Glauber coherency by displacement operator of Weyl-Heisenberg algebra.

Dehghani, A. [Physics Department, Payame Noor University, P. O. Box 19395-4697 Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fakhri, H. [Department of Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, Faculty of Physics, University of Tabriz, P. O. Box 51666-16471 Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mojaveri, B. [Department of Physics, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, P. O. Box 51745-406 Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

272

Uncertainties in nuclear transition matrix elements of neutrinoless ?? decay  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To estimate the uncertainties associated with the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} (K=0?/0N) for the 0{sup +} ? 0{sup +} transitions of electron and positron emitting modes of the neutrinoless ?? decay, a statistical analysis has been performed by calculating sets of eight (twelve) different nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} in the PHFB model by employing four different parameterizations of a Hamiltonian with pairing plus multipolar effective two-body interaction and two (three) different parameterizations of Jastrow short range correlations. The averages in conjunction with their standard deviations provide an estimate of the uncertainties associated the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} calculated within the PHFB model, the maximum of which turn out to be 13% and 19% owing to the exchange of light and heavy Majorana neutrinos, respectively.

Rath, P. K. [Department of Physics, University of Lucknow, Lucknow-226007 (India)

2013-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

273

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty Speaker(s): Afzal Siddiqui Date: July 24, 2006 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 This study examines a California-based microgrid's decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit that operates on natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastc, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find natural gas generation cost thresholds that trigger DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid accelerates DG investment, while the option to disconnect entirely from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an

274

Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...

Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Species Conservation Investment with Environmental  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in conservation actions that generate substantial non-use benefits, such as species and biodiversity conservation1 Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Species Conservation Investment with Environmental: Environmental value transfer and species conservation Key words: environmental value transfer, uncertainty

Botea, Adi

276

Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the potential effect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty on FDI in South Asia. To highlight the affect of political risk and macro policy uncertainty on FDI, we ... ) is use...

Muhammad Azam; Muhammad Arshad Khan; Nasir Iqbal

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Uncertainty quantification and prediction for non-autonomous linear and nonlinear systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The science of uncertainty quantification has gained a lot of attention over recent years. This is because models of real processes always contain some elements of uncertainty, and also because real systems can be better ...

Phadnis, Akash

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

UNCERTAINTIES IN ATOMIC DATA AND THEIR PROPAGATION THROUGH SPECTRAL MODELS. I  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a method for computing uncertainties in spectral models, i.e., level populations, line emissivities, and emission line ratios, based upon the propagation of uncertainties originating from atomic data. We provide analytic expressions, in the form of linear sets of algebraic equations, for the coupled uncertainties among all levels. These equations can be solved efficiently for any set of physical conditions and uncertainties in the atomic data. We illustrate our method applied to spectral models of O III and Fe II and discuss the impact of the uncertainties on atomic systems under different physical conditions. As to intrinsic uncertainties in theoretical atomic data, we propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from the dispersion in the results from various independent calculations. This technique provides excellent results for the uncertainties in A-values of forbidden transitions in [Fe II].

Bautista, M. A.; Fivet, V. [Department of Physics, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI 49008 (United States); Quinet, P. [Astrophysique et Spectroscopie, Universite de Mons-UMONS, B-7000 Mons (Belgium); Dunn, J. [Physical Science Department, Georgia Perimeter College, Dunwoody, GA 30338 (United States); Gull, T. R. [Code 667, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Kallman, T. R. [Code 662, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Mendoza, C., E-mail: manuel.bautista@wmich.edu [Centro de Fisica, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas (IVIC), P.O. Box 20632, Caracas 1020A (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)

2013-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

279

Dealing With Load and Generation Cost Uncertainties in Power System Operation Studies: A Fuzzy Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Power systems are currently facing a change of the paradigm that determined their operation and planning while being surrounded by multiple uncertainties sources. As a consequence, dealing with uncertainty is ...

Bruno Andr Gomes; Joo Tom Saraiva

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Climate change uncertainty evaluation, impacts modelling and resilience of farm scale dynamics in Scotland  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This Thesis explored a range of approaches to study the uncertainty and impacts associated with climate change at the farm scale in Scotland. The research objective was to use a process of uncertainty evaluation and simulation modelling to provide...

Rivington, Michael

2011-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Uncertainty Quantification in Viscous Hypersonic Flows using Gradient Information and Surrogate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty Quantification in Viscous Hypersonic Flows using Gradient Information and Surrogate models for the purposes of uncertainty quantification within the context of viscous hypersonic flows quantification in hypersonic flows. I. Introduction and Motivation The increasing reliance on numerical

Rumpfkeil, Markus Peer

282

INTEGRATION OF SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS - HANFORD EXAMPLES  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

{sm_bullet} Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case {sm_bullet} Spatial coverage identical to reference case {sm_bullet} Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values {sm_bullet} No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate

WOOD MI

2009-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

283

Comment on ''Improved bounds on entropic uncertainty relations''  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We provide an analytical proof of the entropic uncertainty relations presented by J. I. de Vicente and J. Sanchez-Ruiz [Phys. Rev. A 77, 042110 (2008)] and also show that the replacement of Eq. (27) by Eq. (29) in that reference introduces solutions that do not take fully into account the constraints of the problem, which in turn lead to some mistakes in their treatment.

Bosyk, G. M.; Portesi, M.; Plastino, A.; Zozor, S. [Instituto de Fisica La Plata (IFLP, CONICET), and Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, C.C. 67, 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Laboratoire Grenoblois d'Image, Parole, Signal et Automatique (GIPSA-Lab, CNRS), 961 rue de la Houille Blanche, F-38402 Saint Martin d'Heres (France)

2011-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

284

Diagnosing the uncertainty and detectability of emission reductions for  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In preparation for the deployment of a new mechanism that could address as much as one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD +), important work on methodological issues is still needed to secure the capacity to produce measurable, reportable, and verifiable emissions reductions from REDD + in developing countries. To contribute to this effort, we have diagnosed the main sources of uncertainty in the quantification of emission from deforestation for Panama, one of the first countries to be supported by the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility of the World Bank and by UN-REDD. Performing sensitivity analyses using a land-cover change emissions model, we identified forest carbon stocks and the quality of land-cover maps as the key parameters influencing model uncertainty. The time interval between two land-cover assessments, carbon density in fallow and secondary forest, and the accuracy of land-cover classifications also affect our ability to produce accurate estimates. Further, we used the model to compare emission reductions from five different deforestation reduction scenarios drawn from governmental input. Only the scenario simulating a reduction in deforestation by half succeeds in crossing outside the confidence bounds surrounding the baseline emission obtained from the uncertainty analysis. These results suggest that with current data, real emission reductions in developing countries could be obscured by their associated uncertainties. Ways of addressing the key sources of error are proposed, for developing countries involved in REDD + , for improving the accuracy of their estimates in the future. These new considerations confirm the importance of current efforts to establish forest monitoring systems and enhance capabilities for REDD + in developing countries.

Johanne Pelletier; Navin Ramankutty; Catherine Potvin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Uncertainty associated with probabilistic prediction of nutrient transport by runoff  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and estimating the probability and severity of potential hazards to water quality. The objective of this research was to use PRA to characterize the uncertainty associated with probabilistic determination of the nutrient transport by runoff at two dairies.... Simple simulation models were used to determine the rainfall runoff probability and lagoon overflow probabilities. Phosphorous index method in combination with nutrient application rates and soil test levels was used to determine the presence oF excess...

Jain, Mohit

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate distance from the hypocenter was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.

Strom, Daniel J.

2008-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

287

Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

was done in the framework of a research project on model uncertainty at HSBC-CCF, Division of Market

288

An atomic clock with $1\\times 10^{-18}$ room-temperature blackbody Stark uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Stark shift due to blackbody radiation (BBR) is the key factor limiting the performance of many atomic frequency standards, with the BBR environment inside the clock apparatus being difficult to characterize at a high level of precision. Here we demonstrate an in-vacuum radiation shield that furnishes a uniform, well-characterized BBR environment for the atoms in an ytterbium optical lattice clock. Operated at room temperature, this shield enables specification of the BBR environment to a corresponding fractional clock uncertainty contribution of $5.5 \\times 10^{-19}$. Combined with uncertainty in the atomic response, the total uncertainty of the BBR Stark shift is now $1\\times10^{-18}$. Further operation of the shield at elevated temperatures enables a direct measure of the BBR shift temperature dependence and demonstrates consistency between our evaluated BBR environment and the expected atomic response.

Beloy, K; Phillips, N B; Sherman, J A; Schioppo, M; Lehman, J; Feldman, A; Hanssen, L M; Oates, C W; Ludlow, A D

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Sampling-based Uncertainty Quantification in Deconvolution of X-ray Radiographs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In imaging applications that focus on quantitative analysis{such as X-ray radiography in the security sciences--it is necessary to be able to reliably estimate the uncertainties in the processing algorithms applied to the image data, and deconvolving the system blur out of the image is usually an essential step. In this work we solve the deconvolution problem within a Bayesian framework for edge-enhancing reconstruction with uncertainty quantification. The likelihood is a normal approximation to the Poisson likelihood, and the prior is generated from a classical total variation regularized Poisson deconvolution. Samples from the corresponding posterior distribution are computed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, giving a pointwise measure of uncertainty in the final, deconvolved signal. We demonstrate the results on real data used to calibrate a high-energy X-ray source and show that this approach gives reconstructions as good as classical regularization methods, while mitigating many of their drawbacks.

Howard, M. [NSTec; Luttman, A. [NSTec; Fowler, M. [NSTec

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

2012 CERTS R&M Peer Review - Transmission Investment Assessment Under Uncertainty - Ben Hobbs  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Transmission Transmission Investments Under Uncertainty & Transmission Investments Under Uncertainty & High Renewable Penetration: Representing Market Response using a Multi-stage Stochastic Model Approach with Recourse Model Approach with Recourse Benjamin F. Hobbs & Francisco Munoz Geography & Environmental Engineering Applied Math & Stat Geography & Environmental Engineering, Applied Math & Stat. Environment, Energy, Sustainability & Health Institute The Johns Hopkins University Richard E Schuler Richard E. Schuler Civil & Environmental Engineering, and Economics Cornell University August 2, 2011 Thanks to Saamrat Kasina and Harry van der Weijde for their assistance, and DOE CERTS for funding and DOE CERTS for funding O i Overview 1. The problem 1. The problem

291

Cost Recovery from Congestion Tolls with Long-run Uncertainty Robin Lindsey  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cost Recovery from Congestion Tolls with Long-run Uncertainty Robin Lindsey Sauder School Key words: Congestion pricing; cost recovery; road capacity; cost uncertainty; demand uncertainty; irreversible investment JEL codes: D62, H21, R41, R42, R48 Abstract According to the seminal Cost Recovery

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

292

A decomposition approach for commodity pickup and delivery with time-windows under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We consider a special class of large-scale, network-based, resource allocation problems under uncertainty, namely that of multi-commodity flows with time-windows under uncertainty. In this class, we focus on problems involving commodity pickup and delivery ... Keywords: Decomposition, Multi-commodity routing and scheduling, Robust routing and scheduling, Uncertainty

Lavanya Marla, Cynthia Barnhart, Varun Biyani

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

A simplified approach to quantifying predictive and parametric uncertainty in artificial neural network hydrologic models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

considerable interest in developing methods for uncertainty analysis of artificial neural network (ANN) models and parametric uncertainty in artificial neural network hydrologic models, Water Resour. Res., 43, W10407, doi:10A simplified approach to quantifying predictive and parametric uncertainty in artificial neural

Chaubey, Indrajeet

294

Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty Sandia National Laboratories  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1.30pm Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty Habib Najm Sandia National Laboratories Abstract The increased utilization of alternative energy sources requires that evolving power grid Uncertainty Eigenproblem Closure Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty H.N. Najm

Levi, Anthony F. J.

295

Nonlinear dynamical systems with data and model uncertainties subjected to seismic loads  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Nonlinear dynamical systems with data and model uncertainties subjected to seismic loads Christophe loads with data uncertainties for the nonlinearities. An application to a multisupported reactor coolant and Acoustics Dpt., 92141, Clamart cedex, France ABSTRACT This paper deals with data uncertainties

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

296

Assessing certainty and uncertainty in riparian habitat suitability models by identifying parameters with extreme outputs  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The aim of this paper is to introduce a computationally efficient uncertainty assessment approach using an index-based habitat suitability model. The approach focuses on uncertainty in ecological knowledge regarding parameters of index curves and weights. ... Keywords: Habitat model, Riparian vegetation, Suitability index, Uncertainty

Baihua Fu, Joseph H. A. Guillaume

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

A stochastic approach to estimate the uncertainty of dose mapping caused by uncertainties in b-spline registration  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: In fractionated radiation therapy, image guidance with daily tomographic imaging becomes more and more clinical routine. In principle, this allows for daily computation of the delivered dose and for accumulation of these daily dose distributions to determine the actually delivered total dose to the patient. However, uncertainties in the mapping of the images can translate into errors of the accumulated total dose, depending on the dose gradient. In this work, an approach to estimate the uncertainty of mapping between medical images is proposed that identifies areas bearing a significant risk of inaccurate dose accumulation. Methods: This method accounts for the geometric uncertainty of image registration and the heterogeneity of the dose distribution, which is to be mapped. Its performance is demonstrated in context of dose mapping based on b-spline registration. It is based on evaluation of the sensitivity of dose mapping to variations of the b-spline coefficients combined with evaluation of the sensitivity of the registration metric with respect to the variations of the coefficients. It was evaluated based on patient data that was deformed based on a breathing model, where the ground truth of the deformation, and hence the actual true dose mapping error, is known. Results: The proposed approach has the potential to distinguish areas of the image where dose mapping is likely to be accurate from other areas of the same image, where a larger uncertainty must be expected. Conclusions: An approach to identify areas where dose mapping is likely to be inaccurate was developed and implemented. This method was tested for dose mapping, but it may be applied in context of other mapping tasks as well.

Hub, Martina; Thieke, Christian; Kessler, Marc L.; Karger, Christian P. [Department of Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg, Germany and Department of Radiation Oncology, University Clinic Heidelberg, 69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States); Department of Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg (Germany)

2012-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

298

Assessing Early Investments in Low Carbon Technologies under Uncertainty: The Case of Carbon Capture and Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: The Case of Carbon Capture and Storage By Eleanor Ereira Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division on Coal-fired Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a case study of a new high-cost energyAssessing Early Investments in Low Carbon Technologies under Uncertainty: The Case of Carbon

299

Expected dose and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for all scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. The conceptual structure and organization of the 2008 YM PA is based on decomposing the analysis into the following scenario classes: nominal, early waste package failure, early drip shield failure, igneous intrusive, igneous eruptive, seismic ground motion, and seismic fault displacement. This presentation describes how results obtained for the individual scenario classes are brought together in the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified by the NRC in the regulatory requirements for the YM repository and presents associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results. The following topics are addressed: (i) determination of expected dose to the RMEI from all scenario classes, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI for 0 to 20,000yr, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from for 0 to 106yr, (iv) justification for the decomposition procedure used to estimate expected dose to the RMEI from all scenario classes, and (v) effectiveness of individual barrier systems in reducing releases from the repository and thus dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

J.C. Helton; C.W. Hansen; C.J. Sallaberry

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis to Burnup Estimates on ADS using the ACAB Code  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Within the scope of the Accelerator Driven System (ADS) concept for nuclear waste management applications the burnup uncertainty estimates due to uncertainty in the activation cross sections (XSs) are important regarding both the safety and the efficiency of the waste burning process. We have applied both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo methodology to actinides burnup calculations in a lead?bismuth cooled subcritical ADS. The sensitivity analysis is used to identify the reaction XSs and the dominant chains that contribute most significantly to the uncertainty. The Monte Carlo methodology gives the burnup uncertainty estimates due to the synergetic/global effect of the complete set of XS uncertainties. These uncertainty estimates are valuable to assess the need of any experimental or systematic re?evaluation of some uncertainty XSs for ADS.

O. Cabellos; J. Sanz; A. Rodrguez; E. Gonzlez; M. Embid; F. Alvarez; S. Reyes

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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301

Stochastic methods for uncertainty quantification in radiation transport  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The use of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions is investigated for uncertainty quantification in radiation transport. The gPC represents second-order random processes in terms of an expansion of orthogonal polynomials of random variables and is used to represent the uncertain input(s) and unknown(s). We assume a single uncertain input-the total macroscopic cross section-although this does not represent a limitation of the approaches considered here. Two solution methods are examined: The Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and the Stochastic Collocation Method (SCM). The SFEM entails taking Galerkin projections onto the orthogonal basis, which, for fixed source problems, yields a linear system of fully -coupled equations for the PC coefficients of the unknown. For k-eigenvalue calculations, the SFEM system is non-linear and a Newton-Krylov method is employed to solve it. The SCM utilizes a suitable quadrature rule to compute the moments or PC coefficients of the unknown(s), thus the SCM solution involves a series of independent deterministic transport solutions. The accuracy and efficiency of the two methods are compared and contrasted. The PC coefficients are used to compute the moments and probability density functions of the unknown(s), which are shown to be accurate by comparing with Monte Carlo results. Our work demonstrates that stochastic spectral expansions are a viable alternative to sampling-based uncertainty quantification techniques since both provide a complete characterization of the distribution of the flux and the k-eigenvalue. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that, unlike perturbation methods, SFEM and SCM can handle large parameter uncertainty.

Fichtl, Erin D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Prinja, Anil K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Warsa, James S [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Quantification of initial-data uncertainty on a shock-accelerated gas cylinder  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We quantify initial-data uncertainties on a shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder by two-dimensional well-resolved direct numerical simulations. A high-resolution compressible multicomponent flow simulation model is coupled with a polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the initial-data uncertainties to the output quantities of interest. The initial flow configuration follows previous experimental and numerical works of the shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder. We investigate three main initial-data uncertainties, (i) shock Mach number, (ii) contamination of SF{sub 6} with acetone, and (iii) initial deviations of the heavy-gas region from a perfect cylindrical shape. The impact of initial-data uncertainties on the mixing process is examined. The results suggest that the mixing process is highly sensitive to input variations of shock Mach number and acetone contamination. Additionally, our results indicate that the measured shock Mach number in the experiment of Tomkins et al. [An experimental investigation of mixing mechanisms in shock-accelerated flow, J. Fluid. Mech. 611, 131 (2008)] and the estimated contamination of the SF{sub 6} region with acetone [S. K. Shankar, S. Kawai, and S. K. Lele, Two-dimensional viscous flow simulation of a shock accelerated heavy gas cylinder, Phys. Fluids 23, 024102 (2011)] exhibit deviations from those that lead to best agreement between our simulations and the experiment in terms of overall flow evolution.

Tritschler, V. K., E-mail: volker.tritschler@aer.mw.tum.de; Avdonin, A.; Hickel, S.; Hu, X. Y.; Adams, N. A. [Institute of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics, Technische Universitt Mnchen, 85747 Garching (Germany)] [Institute of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics, Technische Universitt Mnchen, 85747 Garching (Germany)

2014-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

303

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Seitz, R

2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

304

Molecular nonlinear dynamics and protein thermal uncertainty quantification  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This work introduces molecular nonlinear dynamics (MND) as a new approach for describing protein folding and aggregation. By using a mode system, we show that the MND of disordered proteins is chaotic while that of folded proteins exhibits intrinsically low dimensional manifolds (ILDMs). The stability of ILDMs is found to strongly correlate with protein energies. We propose a novel method for protein thermal uncertainty quantification based on persistently invariant ILDMs. Extensive comparison with experimental data and the state-of-the-art methods in the field validate the proposed new method for protein B-factor prediction.

Xia, Kelin [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)] [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Wei, Guo-Wei, E-mail: wei@math.msu.edu [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States) [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)

2014-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

305

Communicating Uncertainty Ebola, Public Health, and the Scientific Process  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...consequences have been avoided? Though we have much to learn about how to communicate uncertainty without increasing fear, one key insight from the science of risk perception may help elucidate what does not work to allay fear. My instinct is to tell people who fear Ebola how much more likely they are... The levees of the Red River in Grand Forks, North Dakota, are built to withstand 51-ft water levels. In 1997, the National Weather Service predicted a flood, but despite a 35% margin of error for previous estimates, it emphasized that the river would ...

2014-11-13T23:59:59.000Z

306

Science Based Stockpile Stewardship, Uncertainty Quantification, and Surrogate Reactions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stewardship of this nation's nuclear weapons is predicated on developing a fundamental scientific understanding of the physics and chemistry required to describe weapon performance without the need to resort to underground nuclear testing and to predict expected future performance as a result of intended or unintended modifications. In order to construct more reliable models, underground nuclear test data is being reanalyzed in novel ways. To improve the interpretation of these experiments with quantified uncertainties, improved nuclear data is required. As an example, the thermonuclear yield of a device was often inferred through the use of radiochemical detectors. Conversion of the detector activations observed to thermonuclear yield was accomplished through explosion code calculations (models) and a good set of nuclear reaction cross-sections. Because of the unique high-fluence environment of an exploding nuclear weapon, many reactions occurred on radioactive nuclides, for which only theoretically calculated cross-sections are available. Surrogate nuclear reactions at STARS/LIBERACE offer the opportunity to measure cross-sections on unstable nuclei and thus improve the quality of the nuclear reaction cross-section sets. One radiochemical detector that was loaded in devices was mono-isotopic yttrium ({sup 89}Y). Nuclear reactions produced {sup 87}Y and {sup 88}Y which could be quantified post-shot as a ratio of {sup 87}Y/{sup 88}Y. The yttrium cross-section set from 1988 is shown in Figure 1(a) and contains approximately 62 cross-sections interconnecting the yttrium nuclides. The 6 experimentally measured cross-sections are shown in Figure 1(b). Any measurement of cross-sections on {sup 87}Y or {sup 88}Y would improve the quality of the cross-section set. A recent re-evaluation of the yttrium cross-section set was performed with many more calculated reaction cross-sections included.

Stoyer, M A; McNabb, D P; Burke, J T; Bernstein, L A

2009-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

307

Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis, describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples. The basic ideas and challenges that underlie NNSA's mandate for QMU are present, and have been successfully addressed, in a number of past analyses for complex systems. To provide perspective on the implementation of a requirement for QMU in the analysis of a complex system, three past analyses are presented as examples: (i) the probabilistic risk assessment carried out for the Surry Nuclear Power Station as part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) reassessment of the risk from commercial nuclear power in the United States (i.e., the NUREG-1150 study), (ii) the performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant carried out by the DOE in support of a successful compliance certification application to the U.S. Environmental Agency, and (iii) the performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, carried out by the DOE in support of a license application to the NRC. Each of the preceding analyses involved a detailed treatment of uncertainty and produced results used to establish compliance with specific numerical requirements on the performance of the system under study. As a result, these studies illustrate the determination of both margins and the uncertainty in margins in real analyses.

Jon C. Helton; Jay D. Johnson; Cdric J. Sallaberry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

The spectre of uncertainty in communicating technological risk  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The literature does not clearly describe the potential moral and ethical conflicts that can exist between technology sponsors and the technical communicators whose job it is to present potentially risky technology to the non-technical people most likely to be imperiled by such risk. Equally important, the literature does not address the issue of uncertainty -- not the uncertainty likely to be experienced by the community at risk, but the unreliable processes and methodologies used by technology sponsors to define, quantify, and develop strategies to mitigate technological risks. In this paper, the author goes beyond a description of risk communication, the nature of the generally predictable interaction between technology advocates and non-technically trained individuals, and current trends in the field. Although that kind of information is critical to the success of any risk communication activity, and he has included it when necessary to provide background and perspective, without knowing how and why risk assessment is done, it has limited practical applicability outside the sterile, value-free vacuum in which it is usually framed. Technical communicators, particularly those responsible for communicating potential technological risk, must also understand the social, political, economic, statistical, and ethical issues they will invariably encounter.

Broesius, M.T.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Assessment of solution uncertainties in single-column modeling frameworks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Single-column models (SCMs) have been extensively promoted in recent years as an effective means to develop and test physical parameterizations targeted for more complex three-dimensional climate models. Although there are some clear advantages associated with single-column modeling, there are also some significant disadvantages, including the absence of large-scale feedbacks. Basic limitations of an SCM framework can make it difficult to interpret solutions, and at times contribute to rather striking failures to identify even first-order sensitivities as they would be observed in a global climate simulation. This manuscript will focus on one of the basic experimental approaches currently exploited by the single-column modeling community, with an emphasis on establishing the inherent uncertainties in the numerical solutions. The analysis will employ the standard physics package from the NCAR CCM3 and will illustrate the nature of solution uncertainties that arise from nonlinearities in parameterized physics. The results of this study suggest the need to make use of an ensemble methodology when conducting single-column modeling investigations.

Hack, J.J.; Pedretti, J.A.

2000-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

310

Methods for quantifying uncertainty in fast reactor analyses.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors in the form of sodium-cooled fast reactors have been successfully built and tested in the U.S. and throughout the world. However, no fast reactor has operated in the U.S. for nearly fourteen years. More importantly, the U.S. has not constructed a fast reactor in nearly 30 years. In addition to reestablishing the necessary industrial infrastructure, the development, testing, and licensing of a new, advanced fast reactor concept will likely require a significant base technology program that will rely more heavily on modeling and simulation than has been done in the past. The ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling and simulations will be an important part of any experimental program and can provide added confidence that established design limits and safety margins are appropriate. In addition, there is an increasing demand from the nuclear industry for best-estimate analysis methods to provide confidence bounds along with their results. The ability to quantify uncertainty will be an important component of modeling that is used to support design, testing, and experimental programs. Three avenues of UQ investigation are proposed. Two relatively new approaches are described which can be directly coupled to simulation codes currently being developed under the Advanced Simulation and Modeling program within the Reactor Campaign. A third approach, based on robust Monte Carlo methods, can be used in conjunction with existing reactor analysis codes as a means of verification and validation of the more detailed approaches.

Fanning, T. H.; Fischer, P. F.

2008-04-07T23:59:59.000Z

311

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

Ghanem, Roger G [University of Southern California

2014-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

312

Probabilistic prediction of green roof energy performance under parameter uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Studies on the quantification of energy benefits of a green roof have so far treated its parameter values only deterministically. In reality, however, these values may scatter over different ranges due to the inherent variation of vegetation and soil properties and also because of the unavoidable deviation from designated values during construction and/or actual operation of a green roof. Under such parameter uncertainty, green roof performance can no longer be predicted deterministically but rather probabilistically. The present study attempts to integrate the whole building energy simulation with a parametric uncertainty analysis. An example office building is used to systematically examine how the cooling and heating energy demands can be reduced by a green roof that replaces a conventional roof, when values of the most significant green roof parameters determined by sensitivity analysis are treated as random variables with prescribed probability distributions. An ensemble of green roof configurations is generated using Monte Carlo simulation with a Latin hypercube sampling technique. The coefficient of variation of the calculated energy savings is found almost linearly related to (with a slope of about 0.4) that of green roof parameters. Finally, implications of probabilistic energy analysis for more reliable green roof design are emphasized.

Min (Max) Liu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Measurement uncertainty from In-Situ gamma spectroscopy of nonhomogeneous containers and from Laboratory Assay  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During a D and D or ER process containers of radioactive waste are normally generated. The activity can commonly be determined by gamma spectroscopy, but frequently the measurement conditions are not conducive to precise sample-detector geometries, and usually the radioactive material is not in a homogeneous distribution. What is the best method to accurately assay these containers - sampling followed by laboratory analysis, or in-situ spectroscopy? What is the uncertainty of the final result? To help answer these questions, the Canberra tool ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator [IUE] was used to mathematically simulate and evaluate several different measurement scenarios and to estimate the uncertainty of the measurement and the sampling process. Several representative containers and source distributions were mathematically defined and evaluated to determine the in-situ measurement uncertainty due to the sample non-uniformity. In the First example a typical field situation requiring the measurement of 200-liter drums was evaluated. A sensitivity analysis was done to show which parameters contributed the most to the uncertainty. Then an efficiency uncertainty calculation was performed. In the Second example, a group of 200-liter drums with various types of non-homogeneous distributions was created, and them measurements were simulated with different detector arrangements to see how the uncertainty varied. In the Third example, a truck filled with non-uniform soil was first measured with multiple in-situ detectors to determine the measurement uncertainty. Then composite samples were extracted and the sampling uncertainty computed for comparison to the field measurement uncertainty. (authors)

Bronson, F. [CHP, Canberra Industries, Meriden CT (United States); Atrashkevich, V. [Stroiteley, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Methodological basis to decide short-term investments in distribution systems under uncertainty in performance-based regulatory frameworks  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents new concepts and methodological tools to decide the investments that electric distribution utilities must perform under regulatory frameworks based on performance (Performance Based Regulation or PBR). The proposal is focused on short-term investments. In this work, the subject of hierarchical expansion planning and the basis for an investment decision methodology are presented. Furthermore, the uncertainties to be considered in the problem are indicated and uncertainty representation by means of Type-2 Fuzzy Numbers (T2-FN) is proposed due to the fact that T2-FN, besides modelling the uncertainties in quantitative form, can model uncertainties associated to expert knowledge of qualitative characteristics. System diagnosis and identification of problem areas are considered and it is proposed to classify these areas by using performance indices, then the possible short-term investments are analysed. Finally, a profit-cost and risk analysis for a high-priority investment classification are proposed.

Sergio Raul Rivera; Alberto Vargas

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Constraining uncertainties about the sources and magnitude of polycyclic  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Constraining uncertainties about the sources and magnitude of polycyclic Constraining uncertainties about the sources and magnitude of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)levels in ambient air: the State of Minnesota as a case study Title Constraining uncertainties about the sources and magnitude of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)levels in ambient air: the State of Minnesota as a case study Publication Type Journal Article LBNL Report Number LBNL-54473 Year of Publication 2004 Authors Lobscheid, Agnes B., and Thomas E. McKone Journal Atmospheric Environment Volume 38 Start Page Chapter Pagination 5501-5515 Abstract Emissions data are often lacking or uncertain for many airborne contaminants. Chemicals, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), emitted from combustion sources, fall into this category. Currently available ambient-air emission inventories of PAHs either fail to account for population-based activities (such as residential wood combustion and motor vehicle activity) and/or report 'total PAH' or particulate organic matter emissions instead of individual compounds. We measure the degree of overlap between predicted concentrations from estimated emissions with measured concentrations. Our analysis is, based on probabilistic analysis of measured outdoor air concentrations with those predicted from mass-balance models. . Based on available information, we estimate the relative magnitude of emissions from four major sources ofPAHs to outdoor air- (1) on-road motor vehicles, including light-duty gasoline vehicles and diesel-powered buses and medium and heavy duty trucks; (2) residential wood combustion; and (3) power generation from external combustion boilers. We use the CalTOX regional multimedia mass-balance model to evaluate our emissions estimates in rural and urban regions of the state of Minnesota, USA. We compare model estimatesof outdoor PAH airborne concentrations with those reported by the Minnesota Children's Pesticide Exposure Study (MNCPES). With these measured concentrations we probabilistically evaluate our emissions and interpret the reliability of our emissions estimates for specific PAHs. The median estimates of our predicted outdoor air concentrations agree within an order of magnitude of measured concentrations. For fourrepresentative PAHs, we were able to obtain a reasonable degree of overlap between empirical and predicted distributions of outdoor air concentrations. Our combination of models, emissions estimates, and empirical concentration data estimate exposure in a manner that is more reliable than any of these tools alone. Thereby, we increase our confidence about our plausible ranges of emissions and predicted concentrations

316

A violation of the uncertainty principle implies a violation of the second law of thermodynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty relations state that there exist certain incompatible measurements, to which the outcomes cannot be simultaneously predicted. While the exact incompatibility of quantum measurements dictated by such uncertainty relations can be inferred from the mathematical formalism of quantum theory, the question remains whether there is any more fundamental reason for the uncertainty relations to have this exact form. What, if any, would be the operational consequences if we were able to go beyond any of these uncertainty relations? We give a strong argument that justifies uncertainty relations in quantum theory by showing that violating them implies that it is also possible to violate the second law of thermodynamics. More precisely, we show that violating the uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics leads to a thermodynamic cycle with positive net work gain, which is very unlikely to exist in nature.

Esther Hnggi; Stephanie Wehner

2012-05-31T23:59:59.000Z

317

Science based stockpile stewardship, uncertainty quantification, and fission fragment beams  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stewardship of this nation's nuclear weapons is predicated on developing a fundamental scientific understanding of the physics and chemistry required to describe weapon performance without the need to resort to underground nuclear testing and to predict expected future performance as a result of intended or unintended modifications. In order to construct more reliable models, underground nuclear test data is being reanalyzed in novel ways. The extent to which underground experimental data can be matched with simulations is one measure of the credibility of our capability to predict weapon performance. To improve the interpretation of these experiments with quantified uncertainties, improved nuclear data is required. As an example, the fission yield of a device was often determined by measuring fission products. Conversion of the measured fission products to yield was accomplished through explosion code calculations (models) and a good set of nuclear reaction cross-sections. Because of the unique high-fluence environment of an exploding nuclear weapon, many reactions occurred on radioactive nuclides, for which only theoretically calculated cross-sections are available. Inverse kinematics reactions at CARIBU offer the opportunity to measure cross-sections on unstable neutron-rich fission fragments and thus improve the quality of the nuclear reaction cross-section sets. One of the fission products measured was {sup 95}Zr, the accumulation of all mass 95 fission products of Y, Sr, Rb and Kr (see Fig. 1). Subsequent neutron-induced reactions on these short lived fission products were assumed to cancel out - in other words, the destruction of mass 95 nuclides was more or less equal to the production of mass 95 nuclides. If a {sup 95}Sr was destroyed by an (n,2n) reaction it was also produced by (n,2n) reactions on {sup 96}Sr, for example. However, since these nuclides all have fairly short half-lives (seconds to minutes or even less), no experimental nuclear reaction cross-sections exist, and only theoretically modeled cross-sections are available. Inverse kinematics reactions at CARIBU offer the opportunity, should the beam intensity be sufficient, to measure cross-sections on a few important nuclides in order to benchmark the theoretical calculations and significantly improve the nuclear data. The nuclides in Fig. 1 are prioritized by importance factor and displayed in stoplight colors, green the highest and red the lowest priority.

Stoyer, M A; McNabb, D; Burke, J; Bernstein, L A; Wu, C Y

2009-09-14T23:59:59.000Z

318

Uncertainty analyses for radiological assessments of St. Louis FUSRAP Sites  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty analyses were performed in conjunction with radiological assessments of the Formerly Utilized Site Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) St. Louis Downtown Site (SLDS), the Airport Site (SLAPS), and the Ball Field Site (SLBFS). Contaminants of concern at each location are natural uranium, radium, {sup 232}Th, and {sup 230}Th. The SLDS was used for uranium and thorium ore processing and includes an area of 45 acres. The SLAPS covers 22 acres and was used as a staging area for materials from the SLDS. Contaminants on the SLEFS were dispersed from the SLAPS, which involves an area of 80 acres. Significant levels of uranium contamination range from near zero to several thousand pCi/g and extend to about 20 feet in depth in a few locations at SLAPS and SLDS. Significant areas of peak radium and thorium concentrations are several hundred pCi/g with similar ranges in depth. Peak concentrations correspond to high grade ore. Radium and thorium constitute a greater radiological hazard than does uranium at all three locations. In order to satisfy the Environmental Protection Agency guideline for a lifetime risk of less than 10{sup -4}, the maximally exposed individual must receive less than about 4 mrem y{sup -1} if one assumes a risk of 5% per Sv. Based on the plant ingestion pathway, residual {sup 238}U, {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, and {sup 230}Th, concentrations of 400, 2, 4, and 40 pCi g{sup -1} at SLDS result in a 10{sup -4} lifetime risk with a 95% confidence level. Slightly different results were obtained for SLAPS and SLBFS. If more pathways are considered, such as radon, these values are even lower. Residual contamination levels could be increased by a factor of 25 if the historical Department of Energy limit of 100 mrem y{sup -1} is acceptable. The volume of contaminated soil that presents a 10{sup -4} lifetime risk is about 500,000 yd{sup 3}. The volume of soil contaminated to greater than 15 pCi g{sup -1} of each radionuclide is about a factor of ten less.

Miller, L.F.; Spencer, K.M.; White, D.E. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Uncertainty Analysis of Heliostat Alignment at the Sandia Solar Field  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Low-cost heliostats with open-loop tracking systems require careful calibration in order to track the sun accurately. This calibration can be done by mechanical adjustment, which increases the cost of both the components and commissioning, or it can be done automatically, using software, by learning the various forms of misalignment present in a particular heliostat, and adjusting the pointing directions in order to cancel out the effect of those misalignments. A large set of training data will allow these corrections to be determined to quite high accuracy, and several of low-cost heliostat concepts have already been developed which make use of some form of this principle to reduce overall CSP system cost, though the methods used have not been thoroughly described in open literature. The current study builds upon earlier work by Baheti and Scott (1980), Khalsa et al (2011) and Pye and Zhang (2012), to analyze the process of automated misalignment correction with the introduction of an uncertainty analysis applied to an experimental training data set. The accuracy of correction process from this experimental data is quantified, allowing a criterion to be applied to determine whether or not sufficient training has been completed for each heliostat to mean overall field accuracy requirements. To investigate the potential improvements from extended training, a synthetic data set is generated, and used to investigate preferred times of year and times of data for training specific heliostats in the field. Summer data is shown to be best, but the additional of some winter data is helpful. Time-of-day is also important, especially for the sides of the heliostat field; middle-of- the-day training and spring or autumn training are seen to be less effective. A training programme for the entire heliostat field is presented and discussed: each heliostat is trained daily in summer for two minutes, and daily in winter for one minute in the morning and evening, resulting in 95% certainty that all heliostats will have their focal spot within 1.5 m of the target for the entire year, by an entirely automated process.

Rachel Hogan; John Pye; Clifford Ho; Edward Smith

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

The Low energy structure of the Nucleon-Nucleon interaction: Statistical vs Systematic Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We analyze the low energy NN interaction by extracting threshold parameters uncertainties from the coupled channel effective range expansion up to j $\\leq$ 5. This is based on the Granada-2013 database where a statistically meaningful partial wave analysis comprising a total of 6713 np and pp published scattering data from 1950 till 2013 below pion production threshold has been made. We find that for threshold parameters systematic uncertainties are generally at least an order of magnitude larger than statistical uncertainties.

R. Navarro Perez; J. E. Amaro; E. Ruiz Arriola

2014-12-12T23:59:59.000Z

322

Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2010 February 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 February 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $78.33 per barrel in January 2010, almost $4 per barrel higher than the prior month's average and matching the $78-per-barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. The WTI spot price peaked at $83.12 on January 6 and then fell to $72.85 on January 29 as the weather turned warm and concerns about the strength of world economic recovery increased. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will remain near current levels over the next few months, averaging $76 per barrel in February and March, before rising to about $82 per barrel in the late

323

Uncertainty analysis for probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations in LBB applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the NRC`s Short Cracks in Piping and Piping Welds Program at Battelle, a probabilistic methodology was developed to conduct fracture evaluations of circumferentially cracked pipes for application to leak-rate detection. Later, in the IPIRG-2 program, several parameters that may affect leak-before-break and other pipe flaw evaluations were identified. This paper presents new results from several uncertainty analyses to evaluate the effects of normal operating stresses, normal plus safe-shutdown earthquake stresses, off-centered cracks, restraint of pressure-induced bending, and dynamic and cyclic loading rates on the conditional failure probability of pipes. systems in BWR and PWR. For each parameter, the sensitivity to conditional probability of failure and hence, its importance on probabilistic leak-before-break evaluations were determined.

Rahman, S.; Ghadiali, N.; Wilkowski, G.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Optimal investment, consumption and proportional reinsurance under model uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper considers the optimal investment, consumption and proportional reinsurance strategies for an insurer under model uncertainty. The surplus process of the insurer before investment and consumption is assumed to be a general jumpdiffusion process. The financial market consists of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is also a general jumpdiffusion process. We transform the problem equivalently into a two-person zero-sum forwardbackward stochastic differential game driven by two-dimensional Lvy noises. The maximum principles for a general form of this game are established to solve our problem. Some special interesting cases are studied by using Malliavin calculus so as to give explicit expressions of the optimal strategies.

Xingchun Peng; Fenge Chen; Yijun Hu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Uncertainty Analysis of Certified Photovoltaic Measurements at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Discusses NREL Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group's procedures to achieve lowest practical uncertainty in measuring PV performance with respect to reference conditions.

Emery, K.

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Uncertainty due to non-linearity in radiation thermometers calibrated by multiple fixed points  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A new method to estimate the uncertainty due to non-linearity is described on the n= 3 scheme basis. The expression of uncertainty is mathematically derived applying the random walk method. The expression is simple and requires only the temperatures of the fixed points and a relative uncertainty value for each flux-doubling derived from the non-linearity measurement. We also present an example of the method, in which the uncertainty of temperature measurement by a radiation thermometer is calculated on the basis of non-linearity measurement.

Yamaguchi, Y.; Yamada, Y. [National Metrology Institute of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)] [National Metrology Institute of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

2013-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

327

E-Print Network 3.0 - avt-147 computational uncertainty Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

general motivation... for quantifying uncertain- ties is to increase the transparency of LCA data and results. Uncertainty is undeniably... provides an overview of sources of...

328

An Uncertainty Assessment Framework for LCA-based Environmental Process Design  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Environmental process design methods often incorporate life-cycle assessment (LCA) as a deterministic black-box methodology. However, LCA suffers from several sources of ambiguity and uncertainty. These limitations are particularly severe for the multi-functional processes typical for the chemical industry. This work introduces a rigorous uncertainty assessment framework. The framework quantifies data uncertainties and also uncertainties that result from fixing multi-functionality in LCA by allocation. The method is derived from a matrix-framework for LCA and applied to a comparison of alternative chlorine electrolysis technologies.

Johannes Jung; Niklas von der Assen; Andr Bardow

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Uncertainty in Climate Modelling; Projected climate changes and low flow discharge in Elverdams .  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This project uses the Danish stream Elversdam as a case study to analyse uncertainty in climate modelling, with particular focus on the low flow (more)

Dam, Peter Rosendahl

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Optimal Capacity Investment, and Pricing Across International Markets Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Duopoly Competition.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In this dissertation we investigate joint optimal capacity investment, pricing and production decisions for a multinational manufacturer who faces exchange rate uncertainties. We consider a (more)

Ahmed, Anas A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for improving design robustness and reliability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Engineering systems of the modern day are increasingly complex, often involving numerous components, countless mathematical models, and large, globally-distributed design teams. These features all contribute uncertainty ...

He, Qinxian, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Maximizing Gross Margin of a Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Facility Under Uncertainty in Price and Water Inflow.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The operation of a pumped storage hydroelectric facility is subject to uncertainty. This is especially true in todays energy markets. Published models to achieve optimal (more)

Ikudo, Akina

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical uncertainty propagation Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and Information Sciences 2 CE 473573 Groundwater Introduction to uncertainty analysis and error propagation Summary: CE 473573 Groundwater Fall 2011 Introduction to...

334

Characterization of HVAC operation uncertainty in EnergyPlus AHU modules.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This study addresses 5 uncertainties that exist in the operation of HVAC systems, which will presumably affect the actual energy consumption of the HVAC system (more)

Sui, Di

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Uncertainty for Satellite and Station Solar Data in the Updated NSRDB  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Solar Resource Assessment Workshop, Denver CO, Oct 29, 2008 presentation: Uncertainty for Satellite and Station Solar Data in the Updated NSRDB,

Myers, D. R.

2008-10-29T23:59:59.000Z

336

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. This development has been supported by a sequence of performance assessments (PAs) carried out by Sandla National Laboratories (SNL) to assess what is known about the WIPP and to provide .tidance for future DOE research and development activities. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression techniques play an important role in these PAs by providing an assessment of the uncertainty in important analysis outcomes and identi~ing the sources of thk uncertainty. Performance assessments for the WIPP are conceptually and computational] y interesting due to regulatory requirements to assess and display the effects of both stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, where stochastic uncertainty arises from the possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period associated with the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arises from an inability to unambi-aously characterize the many models and associated parameters required in a PA for the WIPP. The interplay between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty are discussed and illustrated in the context of a recent PA carried out by SNL to support an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste.

Helton, J.C.

1998-12-17T23:59:59.000Z

337

Exploring the antecedents of trust from the perspectives of uncertainty and media richness in virtual community  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With the popularisation of the internet, virtual community offers a new way to social interaction. The services allow users to discuss, communicate, and share their video, photos and files. Recent years have seen increased attention being paid to virtual community, and it has achieved a growing importance in related researches. According to the previous researches, intention to participate is the main driver of the development of a virtual community. Therefore, participate intention is a key factor in the diffusion of a virtual community. Several studies indicate that media richness plays an important role in the traditional media, including television and radio. The most important constructs of media richness are instant feedback, non-verbal cue, language variety and personal focus, as we discuss participate intention. Therefore, this study investigated Facebook user behaviour in relation to media richness. As virtual community users participate in these activities, they will encounter several uncertainties. These uncertainties include marketing uncertainty, product uncertainty, competitor uncertainty, consumer uncertainty and service uncertainty. In light of these uncertainties, this study proposes that trust will be the critical factor regarding Facebook participation. This study uses structural equation modelling (SEM) as the analysis method. The research result shows that both media richness and uncertainty plays an important role to influence the participate intention within a virtual community.

Ruey-Ming Chao; Chen-Chi Chang; Wen-Yu Chang

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Uncertainty analysis of an IGCC system with single-stage entrained-flow gasifier  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) systems using coal gasification is an attractive option for future energy plants. Consequenty, understanding the system operation and optimizing gasifier performance in the presence of uncertain operating conditions is essential to extract the maximum benefits from the system. This work focuses on conducting such a study using an IGCC process simulation and a high-fidelity gasifier simulation coupled with stochastic simulation and multi-objective optimization capabilities. Coal gasifiers are the necessary basis of IGCC systems, and hence effective modeling and uncertainty analysis of the gasification process constitutes an important element of overall IGCC process design and operation. In this work, an Aspen Plus{reg_sign} steady-state process model of an IGCC system with carbon capture enables us to conduct simulation studies so that the effect of gasification variability on the whole process can be understood. The IGCC plant design consists of an single-stage entrained-flow gasifier, a physical solvent-based acid gas removal process for carbon capture, two model-7FB combustion turbine generators, two heat recovery steam generators, and one steam turbine generator in a multi-shaft 2x2x1 configuration. In the Aspen Plus process simulation, the gasifier is represented as a simplified lumped-parameter, restricted-equilibrium reactor model. In this work, we also make use of a distributed-parameter FLUENT{reg_sign} computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to characterize the uncertainty for the entrained-flow gasifier. The CFD-based gasifer model is much more comprehensive, predictive, and hence better suited to understand the effects of uncertainty. The possible uncertain parameters of the gasifier model are identified. This includes input coal composition as well as mass flow rates of coal, slurry water, and oxidant. Using a selected number of random (Monte Carlo) samples for the different parameters, the CFD model is simulated to observe the variations in the output variables (such as syngas composition, gas and ash flow rates etc.). The same samples are then used to conduct simulations using the Aspen Plus IGCC model. The simulation results for the high-fidelity CFD-based gasifier model and the Aspen Plus equilibrium reactor model for selected uncertain parameters are then used to perform the estimation. Defining the ratio of CFD based results to the Aspen Plus result as the uncertainty factor (UF), the work quantifies the extent of uncertainty and then uses uniform* distribution to characterize the uncertainty factor distribution. The characterization and quantification of uncertainty is then used to conduct stochastic simulation of the IGCC system in Aspen Plus. The CAPE-OPEN compliant stochastic simulation capability allows one to conduct a rigorous analysis and generate the feasible space for the operation of the IGCC system. The stochastic simulation results can later be used to conduct multi-objective optimization of the gasifier using a set of identified decision variables. The CAPE-OPEN compliant multi-objective capability in Aspen Plus can be used to conduct the analysis. Since the analysis is based on the uncertainty modeling studies of the gasifier, the optimization accounts for possible uncertainties in the operation of the system. The results for the optimized IGCC system and the gasifier, obtained from the stochastic simulation results, are expected to be more rigorous and hence closer to those obtained from CFD-based rigorous modeling.

Shastri, Y.; Diwekar, U.; Zitney, S.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, w...

McDonnell, J D; Higdon, D; Sarich, J; Wild, S M; Nazarewicz, W

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Optimal operating strategies coping with uncertainties of world oil prices for China's strategic petroleum reserve  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Since 2003, China has begun to establish its own strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to strengthen its oil supply security. Due to the unpredictable feature of the oil supply interruption or sudden price rising, questions about operating the SPR become an important issue for China's policy makers. This paper analysed the operating strategies for China's SPR by developing a stochastic dynamic programming model, which considered uncertainties of the world oil prices and the construction process of China's SPR sites. Different situations, including normal world oil prices, short-term world oil price rising, continuously high world oil prices and continuously oil price decrease were considered and discussed. Optimal SPR operating strategies coping with uncertainties of world oil prices for China were derived and relevant policy implications were obtained. The influence effects on world oil price caused by the acquisition or drawdown actions of China's SPR were considered, too.

Xin Chen; Hailin Mu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Uncertainty in Resilience to Climate Change in India and Indian States  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.

Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

2008-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

343

The Interaction Between Safety Culture and Uncertainty Over Device Behaviour: The Limitations and Hazards of Telemedicine  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Interaction Between Safety Culture and Uncertainty Over Device Behaviour: The Limitations show that uncertainty about device behaviour can undermine attempts to establish a new `safety culture then they frequently resort to coping strategies. This threatens patient safety in many healthcare applications

Johnson, Chris

344

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks ... Keywords: Interoperability, Model web, UncertWeb, Uncertainty, Uncertainty propagation, Visualisation, Web services

Lucy Bastin; Dan Cornford; Richard Jones; Gerard B. M. Heuvelink; Edzer Pebesma; Christoph Stasch; Stefano Nativi; Paolo Mazzetti; Matthew Williams

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Guide the Development of Accelerated Stress Tests (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extrapolation of accelerated testing to the long-term results expected in the field has uncertainty associated with the acceleration factors and the range of possible stresses in the field. When multiple stresses (such as temperature and humidity) can be used to increase the acceleration, the uncertainty may be reduced according to which stress factors are used to accelerate the degradation.

Kempe, M.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Real-Time Deferrable Load Control: Handling the Uncertainties of Renewable Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Deferrable Load Control: Handling the Uncertainties of Renewable Generation Lingwen Gan is an essential tool for handling the uncertainties associated with the increasing penetration of renewable aggregate) to compensate for the random fluctuations in renewable generation. In this paper, we propose

Low, Steven H.

347

Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration Man-Keun Kim  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration By Man-Keun Kim Post Doctoral Fellow Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration Abstract The effect of various stochastic factors like weather% to 10% for the East Texas region. #12;3 Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration 1

McCarl, Bruce A.

348

Towards optimal allocation of computer resources: Trade-offs between uncertainty quantification, discretization and model reduction  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The computational complexity of numerical models can be broken down into contributions ranging from spatial, temporal and stochastic resolution, e.g., spatial grid resolution, time step size and number of repeated simulations dedicated to quantify uncertainty. ... Keywords: Computational costs, Optimal design, Stochastic hydrology, Uncertainty quantification

Philipp C. Leube; Felipe P. J. De Barros; Wolfgang Nowak; Ram Rajagopal

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

A sample average approximation method for disassembly line balancing problem under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper considers a Disassembly Line Balancing Problem (DLBP) under uncertainty. Disassembly task times are assumed to be random variables with known probability distributions. To deal with this uncertainty, a stochastic program is developed. It both ... Keywords: Disassembly lines, L-shaped algorithm, Line design, Monte Carlo sampling, Product recovery, Stochastic programming, Sustainable manufacturing

Mohand Lounes Bentaha, Olga Battaa, Alexandre Dolgui

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Measuring uncertainty in estimates of biodiversity loss: The example of biodiversity intactness variance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of practical indices to monitor rates of biodiversity change in terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystemsMeasuring uncertainty in estimates of biodiversity loss: The example of biodiversity intactness online 17 March 2008 Keywords: Biodiversity Indicator Uncertainty Variance A B S T R A C T Developing

Jackson, Robert B.

351

Mixed Aleatory/Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Hypersonic Flows via Gradient-Based Optimization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mixed Aleatory/Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Hypersonic Flows via Gradient/aleatory uncertainties is demonstrated within the context of hypersonic flows. Specifically, this work focuses in which experimental data is difficult or impossible to obtain, as is the case with hypersonic flows

Anitescu, Mihai

352

1398 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 20, NO. 3, AUGUST 2005 Model Uncertainty in Security  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1398 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 20, NO. 3, AUGUST 2005 Model Uncertainty in Security in a power market. The paper addresses two types of uncertainties: 1) struc- tural (e.g., branch outages minimal corrections in existing contractual transactions that ensure security. Given our interest in real

Stankoviæ, Aleksandar

353

Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to GUA while requiring only one simulation instead of several hundreds or thousands. For the floodUncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations) for uncertainty analysis with respect to two major types of risk in river hydrodynamics: flash flood and dam

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

354

Threat Assessment for Safe Navigation in Environments with Uncertainty in Predictability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Threat Assessment for Safe Navigation in Environments with Uncertainty in Predictability by Georges;Threat Assessment for Safe Navigation in Environments with Uncertainty in Predictability by Georges Salim fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Abstract This thesis develops threat

How, Jonathan P.

355

CAPACITY INVESTMENT UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: THE ROLE OF IMPORTS IN THE U.S. CEMENT INDUSTRY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

varies across markets. In the presence of uncertain demand, capacity choices are shown theoreticallyCAPACITY INVESTMENT UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: THE ROLE OF IMPORTS IN THE U.S. CEMENT INDUSTRY Guy://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu #12;Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

356

Tackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Tackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid Pedram minimization, load uncertainties, smart power grid. I. LIST OF VARIABLES USED IN THIS PAPER A Set of appliances accordingly. Simulation results confirm that the proposed energy consumption scheduling algorithm can benefit

Wong, Vincent

357

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, The uncertain future of climate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by anthropogenic greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. The conclusions of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 difficult. In addition, the uncertainty level re- garding future climate evolution has not decreased signifi reasons motivate us to (a) revisit here a key cause for the persisting uncertainties, in order

Ghil, Michael

358

Statistical tools for estimating and combining finite rotations and their uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......indicates that the data uncertainties along the Carlsberg Ridge are overestimated by a factor of 1.15. Note that kappa^ so/inis slightly larger than kappa^ so/ca. As there are no compelling reasons for assigning different uncertainties to the data along......

Bessie H. Kirkwood; Jean-Yves Royer; Theodore C. Chang; Richard G. Gordon

1999-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

AHP and Uncertainty Theories for Decision Making using the ER-MCDA Methodology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AHP and Uncertainty Theories for Decision Making using the ER-MCDA Methodology Jean-Marc Tacnet are discussed in the conclusion. II. INFORMATION IMPERFECTION AND UNCERTAINTY THEORIES Any decision is clo-criteria decision-making based on imperfect information coming from more or less reliable and conflicting sources

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

360

A Zero-Sum Electromagnetic Evader-Interrogator Differential Game with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Zero-Sum Electromagnetic Evader-Interrogator Differential Game with Uncertainty H.T. Banks-8212 In Memoriam of Prof. L. D. Berkovitz February 21, 2011 Abstract We consider dynamic electromagnetic evasion23, 49N70, 49N90, 65M32, 68T37, 60J70. Key Words: Electromagnetic evasion-pursuit, uncertainty

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Characterizing uncertainty in species distribution models derived from interpolated weather station data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

metrics of uncertainty in interpolated weather station data have varying contributions to over- and underCharacterizing uncertainty in species distribution models derived from interpolated weather station distribution models derived from interpolated weather station data. Ecosphere 4(5):61. http://dx.doi.org/10

Kueppers, Lara M.

362

An intelligent multi-objective stochastic framework to solve the distribution feeder reconfiguration considering uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper deals with the optimal operation management of the distribution feeder reconfiguration DFR considering the uncertainty effects. In contrast to the conventional objective functions, this paper considers the System Average Interruption Frequency ... Keywords: Optimal Operation Management Of Dfr, Self Adaptive Modified Theta Firefly Algorithm Sam-?-Fa, Stochastic Framework, Uncertainty

Aliasghar Baziar; Abdollah Kavousi-Fard

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Perceived environmental uncertainty and strategic alliances in small and medium-sized enterprises  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study analyses the importance that small and medium-sized enterprises attach to forming strategic alliances according to the environmental uncertainty they perceive. The uncertainty is obtained by applying Duncan's (1972) typology, combining environmental dynamism and complexity. A sample of small and medium-sized enterprises from the Canary Islands (Spain) was studied during 2005, and the Rasch methodology was applied together with non-parametric tests (Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney). The conclusion reached is that the greater the uncertainty perceived, the greater the importance small and medium-sized enterprises attach to strategic alliances. Furthermore, the group of small and medium-sized enterprises that perceive their environment as being highly uncertain and that attach more importance to forming strategic alliances are characterised by being larger than other small and medium-sized enterprises. This study makes an important contribution by considering the perceptions of managers of small and medium-sized enterprises as key determining factors in understanding these firms' strategic processes. This contribution is reinforced through the use of the Rasch methodology.

Ana Maria García-Pérez; Vanessa Yanes-Estévez; Juan Ramón Oreja-Rodríguez

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Characterization of subjective uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of subjective uncertainty is discussed, including assignment of distributions, uncertain variables selected for inclusion in analysis, correlation control, sample size, statistical confidence on mean complementary cumulative distribution functions, generation of Latin hypercube samples, sensitivity analysis techniques, and scenarios involving stochastic and subjective uncertainty.

HELTON,JON CRAIG; MARTELL,MARY-ALENA; TIERNEY,MARTIN S.

2000-05-18T23:59:59.000Z

366

TSUNAMI Primer: A Primer for Sensitivity/Uncertainty Calculations with SCALE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This primer presents examples in the application of the SCALE/TSUNAMI tools to generate k{sub eff} sensitivity data for one- and three-dimensional models using TSUNAMI-1D and -3D and to examine uncertainties in the computed k{sub eff} values due to uncertainties in the cross-section data used in their calculation. The proper use of unit cell data and need for confirming the appropriate selection of input parameters through direct perturbations are described. The uses of sensitivity and uncertainty data to identify and rank potential sources of computational bias in an application system and TSUNAMI tools for assessment of system similarity using sensitivity and uncertainty criteria are demonstrated. Uses of these criteria in trending analyses to assess computational biases, bias uncertainties, and gap analyses are also described. Additionally, an application of the data adjustment tool TSURFER is provided, including identification of specific details of sources of computational bias.

Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL; Bowman, Stephen M [ORNL; Busch, Robert D. [University of New Mexico, Albuquerque; Emerson, Scott [University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Managing Model Data Introduced Uncertainties in Simulator Predictions for Generation IV Systems via Optimum Experimental Design  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An optimization technique has been developed to select optimized experimental design specifications to produce data specifically designed to be assimilated to optimize a given reactor concept. Data from the optimized experiment is assimilated to generate posteriori uncertainties on the reactor concepts core attributes from which the design responses are computed. The reactor concept is then optimized with the new data to realize cost savings by reducing margin. The optimization problem iterates until an optimal experiment is found to maximize the savings. A new generation of innovative nuclear reactor designs, in particular fast neutron spectrum recycle reactors, are being considered for the application of closing the nuclear fuel cycle in the future. Safe and economical design of these reactors will require uncertainty reduction in basic nuclear data which are input to the reactor design. These data uncertainty propagate to design responses which in turn require the reactor designer to incorporate additional safety margin into the design, which often increases the cost of the reactor. Therefore basic nuclear data needs to be improved and this is accomplished through experimentation. Considering the high cost of nuclear experiments, it is desired to have an optimized experiment which will provide the data needed for uncertainty reduction such that a reactor design concept can meet its target accuracies or to allow savings to be realized by reducing the margin required due to uncertainty propagated from basic nuclear data. However, this optimization is coupled to the reactor design itself because with improved data the reactor concept can be re-optimized itself. It is thus desired to find the experiment that gives the best optimized reactor design. Methods are first established to model both the reactor concept and the experiment and to efficiently propagate the basic nuclear data uncertainty through these models to outputs. The representativity of the experiment to the design concept is quantitatively determined. A technique is then established to assimilate this data and produce posteriori uncertainties on key attributes and responses of the design concept. Several experiment perturbations based on engineering judgment are used to demonstrate these methods and also serve as an initial generation of the optimization problem. Finally, an optimization technique is developed which will simultaneously arrive at an optimized experiment to produce an optimized reactor design. Solution of this problem is made possible by the use of the simulated annealing algorithm for solution of optimization problems. The optimization examined in this work is based on maximizing the reactor cost savings associated with the modified design made possible by using the design margin gained through reduced basic nuclear data uncertainties. Cost values for experiment design specifications and reactor design specifications are established and used to compute a total savings by comparing the posteriori reactor cost to the a priori cost plus the cost of the experiment. The optimized solution arrives at a maximized cost savings.

Paul J. Turinsky; Hany S.Abdel-Khalik; Tracy E. Stover

2011-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

368

A preliminary study to Assess Model Uncertainties in Fluid Flows  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The goal of this study is to assess the impact of various flow models for a simplified primary coolant loop of a light water nuclear reactor. The various fluid flow models are based on the Euler equations with an additional friction term, gravity term, momentum source, and energy source. The geometric model is purposefully chosen simple and consists of a one-dimensional (1D) loop system in order to focus the study on the validity of various fluid flow approximations. The 1D loop system is represented by a rectangle; the fluid is heated up along one of the vertical legs and cooled down along the opposite leg. A pressurizer and a pump are included in the horizontal legs. The amount of energy transferred and removed from the system is equal in absolute value along the two vertical legs. The various fluid flow approximations are compressible vs. incompressible, and complete momentum equation vs. Darcys approximation. The ultimate goal is to compute the fluid flow models uncertainties and, if possible, to generate validity ranges for these models when applied to reactor analysis. We also limit this study to single phase flows with low-Mach numbers. As a result, sound waves carry a very small amount of energy in this particular case. A standard finite volume method is used for the spatial discretization of the system.

Marc Oliver Delchini; Jean C. Ragusa

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks.

Bonnema, B.E.

2002-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

370

Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - "Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets." In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks.

Bonnema, Bruce Edward

2002-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Utilization of extended bayesian networks in decision making under uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Bayesian network tool (called IKE for Integrated Knowledge Engine) has been developed to assess the probability of undesirable events. The tool allows indications and observables from sensors and/or intelligence to feed directly into hypotheses of interest, thus allowing one to quantify the probability and uncertainty of these events resulting from very disparate evidence. For example, the probability that a facility is processing nuclear fuel or assembling a weapon can be assessed by examining the processes required, establishing the observables that should be present, then assembling information from intelligence, sensors and other information sources related to the observables. IKE also has the capability to determine tasking plans, that is, prioritize which observable should be collected next to most quickly ascertain the 'true' state and drive the probability toward 'zero' or 'one.' This optimization capability is called 'evidence marshaling.' One example to be discussed is a denied facility monitoring situation; there is concern that certain process(es) are being executed at the site (due to some intelligence or other data). We will show how additional pieces of evidence will then ascertain with some degree of certainty the likelihood of this process(es) as each piece of evidence is obtained. This example shows how both intelligence and sensor data can be incorporated into the analysis. A second example involves real-time perimeter security. For this demonstration we used seismic, acoustic, and optical sensors linked back to IKE. We show how these sensors identified and assessed the likelihood of 'intruder' versus friendly vehicles.

Van Eeckhout, Edward M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Calibration under uncertainty for finite element models of masonry monuments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Historical unreinforced masonry buildings often include features such as load bearing unreinforced masonry vaults and their supporting framework of piers, fill, buttresses, and walls. The masonry vaults of such buildings are among the most vulnerable structural components and certainly among the most challenging to analyze. The versatility of finite element (FE) analyses in incorporating various constitutive laws, as well as practically all geometric configurations, has resulted in the widespread use of the FE method for the analysis of complex unreinforced masonry structures over the last three decades. However, an FE model is only as accurate as its input parameters, and there are two fundamental challenges while defining FE model input parameters: (1) material properties and (2) support conditions. The difficulties in defining these two aspects of the FE model arise from the lack of knowledge in the common engineering understanding of masonry behavior. As a result, engineers are unable to define these FE model input parameters with certainty, and, inevitably, uncertainties are introduced to the FE model.

Atamturktur, Sezer,; Hemez, Francois,; Unal, Cetin

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Remote Clocks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The observed cosmic acceleration was attributed to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a complete wrong result and leads to a severe fine-tuning. To solve the problem, the exact meaning of time in quantum mechanics is reexamined. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of physical clock. We find that synchronization of two spatially separated clocks can not be precisely realized at quantum level. There is an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of remote simultaneity, which implies an apparent vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$ at leading order, where $L_{P}$ and $L_{H}$ are the Planck and Hubble scale cutoffs. The fraction of the dark energy is given by $\\Omega_{de}=\\frac{2}{\\pi}$ at leading order approximation, which does not evolve with time, so it is "always" comparable to the critical density. This theory is consistent with current cosmic observations.

M. J. Luo

2014-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

374

Optimal design and operation of energy systems under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper is concerned with integrated design and operation of energy systems that are subject to significant uncertainties. The problem is cast as a two-stage stochastic programming problem, which can be transformed into a large-scale nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). The MINLP exhibits a decomposable structure that can be exploited by nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition (NGBD) for efficient global optimization. This paper extends the NGBD method developed by the authors recently, such that the method can handle non-separable functions and integer operational decisions. Both the standard NGBD algorithm and an enhanced one with piecewise convex relaxations are discussed. The advantages of the proposed formulation and solution method are demonstrated through case studies of two industrial energy systems, a natural gas production network and a polygeneration plant. The first example shows that the two-stage stochastic programming formulation can result in better expected economic performance than the deterministic formulation, and that NGBD is more efficient than a state-of-the-art global optimization solver. The second example shows that the integration of piecewise convex relaxations can improve the efficiency of NGBD by at least an order of magnitude.

Xiang Li; Paul I. Barton

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Tighter quantum uncertainty relations follow from a general probabilistic bound  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty relations (URs) like the Heisenberg-Robertson or the time-energy UR are often considered to be hallmarks of quantum theory. Here, a simple derivation of these URs is presented based on a single classical inequality from estimation theory, a Cram\\'er-Rao-like bound. The Heisenberg-Robertson UR is then obtained by using the Born rule and the Schr\\"odinger equation. This allows a clear separtion of the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics from the Hilbert space structure and the dynamical law. It also simplifies the interpretation of the bound. In addition, the Heisenberg-Robertson UR is tightened for mixed states by replacing one variance by the so-called quantum Fisher information. Thermal states of well-known Hamiltonians are shown to saturate the tighter bound for natural choices of the operators. Last, this bound establishes links to inequalities for spin-squeezing and multi-particle entanglement and leads to an entire class of inequalities for entanglement detection.

Florian Frwis; Nicolas Gisin

2014-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

376

Characterization, Propagation and Analysis of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in the 2008 Performance Assessment for the Proposed Repository for High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual...

Clifford W. Hansen; Jon C. Helton; Cdric J. Sallaberry

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three ...

Clifford W. Hansen; Jon C. Helton; Cdric J. Sallaberry

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and Structural Uncertainty Estimations  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty ...

Wei Liu; Boyin Huang; Peter W. Thorne; Viva F. Banzon; Huai-Min Zhang; Eric Freeman; Jay Lawrimore; Thomas C. Peterson; Thomas M. Smith; Scott D. Woodruff

379

Uncertainty of Measurement and Lower Detection Limit of Track Etched Detector Systems: Experimental Verification and Consequences for Intercomparison Experiments  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......Dosimetry Article Uncertainty of Measurement and Lower Detection Limit...Detector Systems: Experimental Verification and Consequences for Intercomparison...the random uncertainty of measurement relative to track density...detectors used for the actual measurement of the quantity of interest......

B. Burgkhardt; E. Piesch; M. Vilgis

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

A Study on Uncertainty Analysis of Safety Systems of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor using Fuzzy Set Theory  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inherent to any reliability calculation is a degree of uncertainty in ... ) are also being used in the risk analysis for quantifying the basic event uncertainty and ... of probabilistic and fuzzy methodologies fo...

Rao K. Durga; V. Gopika; M. H. Prasad

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Uncertainty analysis of an aviation climate model and an aircraft price model for assessment of environmental effects  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Estimating, presenting, and assessing uncertainties are important parts in assessment of a complex system. This thesis focuses on the assessment of uncertainty in the price module and the climate module in the Aviation ...

Jun, Mina

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Jordan Boyd-Graber and David M. Blei. Multilingual Topic Models for Unaligned Text. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2009.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Jordan Boyd-Graber and David M. Blei. Multilingual Topic Models for Unaligned Text. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2009. @inproceedings{Boyd-Graber:Blei-2009, Title = {Multilingual Topic Models for Unaligned Text}, Booktitle = {Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence}, Author = {Jordan Boyd

Boyd-Graber, Jordan

383

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A multi-rate expression for uranyl [U(VI)] surface complexation reactions has been proposed to describe diffusion-limited U(VI) sorption/desorption in heterogeneous subsurface sediments. An important assumption in the rate expression is that its rate constants follow a certain type probability distribution. In this paper, a Bayes-based, Differential Evolution Markov Chain method was used to assess the distribution assumption and to analyze parameter and model structure uncertainties. U(VI) desorption from a contaminated sediment at the US Hanford 300 Area, Washington was used as an example for detail analysis. The results indicated that: 1) the rate constants in the multi-rate expression contain uneven uncertainties with slower rate constants having relative larger uncertainties; 2) the lognormal distribution is an effective assumption for the rate constants in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the smaller rate constants; and 4) both parameter and model structure uncertainties can affect the extrapolation of the multi-rate model with a larger uncertainty from the model structure. The results provide important insights into the factors contributing to the uncertainties of the multi-rate expression commonly used to describe the diffusion or mixing-limited sorption/desorption of both organic and inorganic contaminants in subsurface sediments.

Zhang, Xiaoying; Liu, Chongxuan; Hu, Bill X.; Zhang, Guannan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Generalized Uncertainty Principle and Recent Cosmic Inflation Observations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The recent background imaging of cosmic extragalactic polarization (BICEP2) observations are believed as an evidence for the cosmic inflation. BICEP2 provided a first direct evidence for the inflation, determined its energy scale and debriefed witnesses for the quantum gravitational processes. The ratio of scalar-to-tensor fluctuations $r$ which is the canonical measurement of the gravitational waves, was estimated as $r=0.2_{-0.05}^{+0.07}$. Apparently, this value agrees well with the upper bound value corresponding to PLANCK $r\\leq 0.012$ and to WMAP9 experiment $r=0.2$. It is believed that the existence of a minimal length is one of the greatest predictions leading to modifications in the Heisenberg uncertainty principle or a GUP at the Planck scale. In the present work, we investigate the possibility of interpreting recent BICEP2 observations through quantum gravity or GUP. We estimate the slow-roll parameters, the tensorial and the scalar density fluctuations which are characterized by the scalar field $\\phi$. Taking into account the background (matter and radiation) energy density, $\\phi$ is assumed to interact with the gravity and with itself. We first review the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) Universe and then suggest modification in the Friedmann equation due to GUP. By using a single potential for a chaotic inflation model, various inflationary parameters are estimated and compared with the PLANCK and BICEP2 observations. While GUP is conjectured to break down the expansion of the early Universe (Hubble parameter and scale factor), two inflation potentials based on certain minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model result in $r$ and spectral index matching well with the observations. Corresponding to BICEP2 observations, our estimation for $r$ depends on the inflation potential and the scalar field. A power-law inflation potential does not.

Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

2014-10-29T23:59:59.000Z

385

Analysis of uncertainties in CRAC2 calculations: the inhalation pathway  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

CRAC2 is a computer code for estimating the health effects and economic costs that might result from a release of radioactivity from a nuclear reactor to the environment. This paper describes tests of sensitivity of the predicted health effects to uncertainties in parameters associated with inhalation of the released radionuclides. These parameters are the particle size of the carrier aerosol and, for each element in the release, the clearance parameters for the lung model on which the code's dose conversion factors for inhalation are based. CRAC2 uses hourly meteorological data and a straight-line Gaussian plume model to predict the transport of airborne radioactivity; it includes models for plume depletion and population evacuation, and data for the distributions of population and land use. The code can compute results for single weather sequences, or it can perform random sampling of weather sequences from the meteorological data file and compute results for each weather sequence in the sample. For the work described in this paper, we concentrated on three fixed weather sequences that represent a range of conditions. For each fixed weather sequence, we applied random sampling to joint distributions of the inhalation parameters in order to estimate the sensitivity of the predicted health effects. All sampling runs produced coefficients of variation that were less than 50%, but some differences of means between weather sequences were substantial, as were some differences between means and the corresponding CRAC2 results without random sampling. Early injuries showed differences of as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, while the differences in early fatalities were less than a factor of 2. Latent cancer fatalities varied by less than 10%. 19 references, 6 figures, 3 tables.

Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Reducing Uncertainty for the DeltaQ Duct Leakage Test  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The thermal distribution system couples the HVAC components to the building envelope, and shares many properties of the buildings envelope including moisture, conduction and most especially air leakage performance. Duct leakage has a strong influence on air flow rates through building envelopes (usually resulting in much greater flows than those due to natural infiltration) because unbalanced duct air flows and leaks result in building pressurization and depressurization. As a tool to estimate this effect, the DeltaQ duct leakage test has been developed over the past several years as an improvement to existing duct pressurization tests. It focuses on measuring the air leakage flows to outside at operating conditions that are required for envelope infiltration impacts and energy loss calculations for duct systems. The DeltaQ test builds on the standard envelope tightness blower door measurement techniques by repeating the tests with the system air handler off and on. The DeltaQ test requires several assumptions to be made about duct leakage and its interaction with the duct system and building envelope in order to convert the blower door results into duct leakage at system operating conditions. This study examined improvements to the DeltaQ test that account for some of these assumptions using a duct system and building envelope in a test laboratory. The laboratory measurements used a purpose-built test chamber coupled to a duct system typical of forced air systems in US homes. Special duct leaks with controlled air-flow were designed and installed into an airtight duct system. This test apparatus allowed the systematic variation of the duct and envelope leakage and accurate measurement of the duct leakage flows for comparison to DeltaQ test results. This paper will discuss the laboratory test apparatus design, construction and operation, the various analysis techniques applied to the calculation procedure and present estimates of uncertainty in measured duct leakage.

Walker, Iain S.; Sherman, Max H.; Dickerhoff, Darryl J.

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Statistical Assessment of Proton Treatment Plans Under Setup and Range Uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: To evaluate a method for quantifying the effect of setup errors and range uncertainties on dose distribution and dosevolume histogram using statistical parameters; and to assess existing planning practice in selected treatment sites under setup and range uncertainties. Methods and Materials: Twenty passively scattered proton lung cancer plans, 10 prostate, and 1 brain cancer scanning-beam proton plan(s) were analyzed. To account for the dose under uncertainties, we performed a comprehensive simulation in which the dose was recalculated 600 times per given plan under the influence of random and systematic setup errors and proton range errors. On the basis of simulation results, we determined the probability of dose variations and calculated the expected values and standard deviations of dosevolume histograms. The uncertainties in dose were spatially visualized on the planning CT as a probability map of failure to target coverage or overdose of critical structures. Results: The expected value of target coverage under the uncertainties was consistently lower than that of the nominal value determined from the clinical target volume coverage without setup error or range uncertainty, with a mean difference of ?1.1% (?0.9% for breath-hold), ?0.3%, and ?2.2% for lung, prostate, and a brain cases, respectively. The organs with most sensitive dose under uncertainties were esophagus and spinal cord for lung, rectum for prostate, and brain stem for brain cancer. Conclusions: A clinically feasible robustness plan analysis tool based on direct dose calculation and statistical simulation has been developed. Both the expectation value and standard deviation are useful to evaluate the impact of uncertainties. The existing proton beam planning method used in this institution seems to be adequate in terms of target coverage. However, structures that are small in volume or located near the target area showed greater sensitivity to uncertainties.

Park, Peter C.; Cheung, Joey P.; Zhu, X. Ronald [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Lee, Andrew K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Sahoo, Narayan [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tucker, Susan L. [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liu, Wei; Li, Heng; Mohan, Radhe; Court, Laurence E. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Dong, Lei, E-mail: dong.lei@scrippshealth.org [Scripps Proton Therapy Center, San Diego, California (United States)

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Introduction to the Special Section in Vadose Zone Journal: Parameter Identification and Uncertainty Assessment in the Unsaturated Zone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Uncertainty Assessment in the Unsaturated Zone Jasper A. Vrugt* and Shlomo P. Neuman DURING the last few

Vrugt, Jasper A.

389

Expected dose and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the human intrusion scenario in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected (mean) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository resulting from an inadvertent drilling intrusion into the repository. The following topics are addressed: (i) assumed properties of an inadvertent drilling intrusion and the determination of the associated dose and expected (mean) dose to the RMEI, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for expected dose to the RMEI, and (iii) the numerical stability of the sampling-based procedure used to estimate expected (mean) dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

C.W. Hansen; G.A. Behie; K.M. Brooks; Y. Chen; J.C. Helton; S.P. Hommel; K.P. Lee; B. Lester; P.D. Mattie; S. Mehta; S.P. Miller; C.J. Sallaberry; S.D. Sevougian

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

2001-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

391

Dakota uncertainty quantification methods applied to the NEK-5000 SAHEX model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes the results of a NEAMS project focused on the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods within the NEK-5000 and Dakota software framework for assessing failure probabilities as part of probabilistic risk assessment. NEK-5000 is a software tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory to perform computational fluid dynamics calculations for applications such as thermohydraulics of nuclear reactor cores. Dakota is a software tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories containing optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification algorithms. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the use of uncertainty quantification methods in Dakota with NEK-5000.

Weirs, V. Gregory

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Multiplicative scale uncertainties in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We have investigated how uncertainties in the estimation of the detection efficiency affect the 90% confidence intervals in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals. The study has been conducted for experiments where the number of detected events is large and can be described by a Gaussian probability density function. We also assume the detection efficiency has a Gaussian probability density and study the range of the relative uncertainties $\\sigma_\\epsilon$ between 0 and 30%. We find that the confidence intervals provide proper coverage over a wide signal range and increase smoothly and continuously from the intervals that ignore scale uncertainties with a quadratic dependence on $\\sigma_\\epsilon$.

E. S. Smith

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

393

Impact of Uncertainties in Hadron Production on Air-Shower Predictions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

At high energy, cosmic rays can only be studied by measuring the extensive air showers they produce in the atmosphere of the Earth. Although the main features of air showers can be understood within a simple model of successive interactions, detailed simulations and a realistic description of particle production are needed to calculate observables relevant to air shower experiments. Currently hadronic interaction models are the main source of uncertainty of such simulations. We will study the effect of using different hadronic models available in CORSIKA and CONEX on extensive air shower predictions.

T. Pierog; R. Engel; D. Heck

2006-02-08T23:59:59.000Z

394

Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No.171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g.the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose-rate occupational and perhaps environmental exposures and for exposures to x rays and high-LET radiations used in medicine. The development of models for more reliably combining the epidemiology data with experimental laboratory animal and cellular data can enhance the overall risk assessment approach by providing biologically refined data to strengthen the estimation of effects at low doses as opposed to the sole use of mathematical models of epidemiological data that are primarily driven by medium/high doses. NASA's approach to radiation protection for astronauts, although a unique occupational group, indicates the possible applicability of estimates of risk and their uncertainty in a broader context for developing recommendations on: (1)dose limits for occupational exposure and exposure of members of the public; (2)criteria to limit exposures of workers and members of the public to radon and its short-lived decay products; and (3)the dosimetric quantity (effective dose) used in radiation protection.

R Julian Preston; John D Boice Jr; A Bertrand Brill; Ranajit Chakraborty; Rory Conolly; F Owen Hoffman; Richard W Hornung; David C Kocher; Charles E Land; Roy E Shore; Gayle E Woloschak

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan L. Chini, G.C. Hurtt, M. Hansen, and P. Potapov Department of Geography University of Maryland The following Data Management Plan was part of the NASA ROSES 2012 Proposal Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon- Climate Models (summary) submitted to the Terrestrial Ecology Program. It is presented as an example plan. Data Management Plan The proposed project will generate important new datasets of remote-sensing-based land-use transitions and their inherent uncertainty. Our plan for managing these datasets includes quality assessment, long-term archiving, and data sharing and dissemination (along with documentation

396

Quantum States Allowing Minimum Uncertainty Product of angular position and momentum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for states to have an arbitrarily small uncertainty product of the azimuthal angle $\\phi $ and its canonical moment $L_{z}$. We illustrate our results with analytical examples.

Tiago Pereira; D. H. U. Marchetti

2008-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

397

PDF uncertainties on the W boson mass measurement from the lepton transverse momentum distribution  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the charged current Drell-Yan process and we evaluate the proton parton densities uncertainties on the lepton transverse momentum distribution and their impact on the determination of the W-boson mass. We consider the global PDF sets CT10, MSTW2008CPdeut, NNPDF2.3, NNPDF3.0, MMHT2014, and apply the PDF4LHC recipe to combine the individual results, obtaining an uncertainty on MW that ranges between +-18 and +-24 MeV, depending on the final state, collider energy and kind. We discuss the dependence of the uncertainty on the acceptance cuts and the role of the individual parton densities in the final result. We remark that some PDF sets predict an uncertainty on MW of O(10 MeV); this encouraging result is spoiled, in the combined analysis of the different sets, by an important spread of the central values predicted by each group.

Bozzi, Giuseppe; Vicini, Alessandro

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of biokinetic models for radiopharmaceuticals used in nuclear medicine  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......who undergo the diagnosis in nuclear medicine. Table-2. The...radiopharmaceuticals used in nuclear medicine. As an example...1976) New York: Society of Nuclear Medicine. MIRD pamphlet no...Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. (1990) New York......

W. B. Li; C. Hoeschen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

The relationship between disability and depression in multiple sclerosis: the role of uncertainty, coping, and hope.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The relationship between disability and depression was studied in 188 patients with clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS). Patients were administered the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, Ways of Coping, Uncertainty ...

Lynch, Sharon G.; Kroencke, Dawn C.; Denney, Douglas R.

2001-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events in the United States: An Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in ...

Monier, Erwan

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Life Cycle Regulation of Transportation Fuels: Uncertainty and its Policy Implications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.3.2. Methodological issues with LCA . . .2.3.3. Attributional versus consequential LCA 2.3.4.Economic Input-Output LCA . . . . . 2.4. Uncertainty in

Plevin, Richard Jay

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(EIA),16 the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to average $68 per barrel in both 2006 and 2007. 2.2 Uncertainty in Petroleum Project Evaluations The literature indicates an informal distinction between ?risk...

Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

403

Uncertainty in the oceanic heat and carbon uptake and their impact on climate projections  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The impact of uncertainty in the rate of heat and carbon uptake by the deep ocean on climate response to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations is studied by means of numerical simulations with the two-dimensional ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.; Wang, Chien.; Holian, Gary L.; Stone, Peter H.; Prinn, Ronald G.

404

Characterizing uncertainty to manage risk in spacecraft development with application to structures and mass  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Most space programs experience significant cost and schedule growth over the course of program development. Poor uncertainty management has been identified as one of the leading causes of program cost and schedule overruns. ...

Clements, Emily Baker

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Electric sector investments under technological and policy-related uncertainties: a stochastic programming approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Although emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage and advanced nuclear are expected to play leading roles in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, many engineering and policy-related uncertainties wi...

John E. Bistline; John P. Weyant

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in the presence of modeling uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes an adaptive controller for a hypersonic cruise vehicle subject to aerodynamic uncertainties, center-of-gravity movements, actuator saturation, failures, and time-delays. The adaptive control architecture ...

Gibson, Travis Eli

407

Customer concerns about uncertainty and willingness to pay in leasing solar power systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Although solar power systems are considered as one of ... about uncertainty and willingness to pay for leasing solar power systems. Conjoint analysis method is used to find part worth utilities and estimate gaps ...

L. H. Shih; T. Y. Chou

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Management strategies for Indonesian rubber production under yield and price uncertainty: a bioeconomic analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A simplified version of the BEAM Rubber Agroforestry Model is embedded in a dynamic economic model to examine the impact of uncertainty about prices and climate on decision variables. Solutions, in terms of op...

R. Purnamasari; O. Cacho; P. Simmons

409

An Explanation of Uncertainties in Point Cloudiness/Solar Energy Relationships  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The uncertainties in average relationships between paint cloudiness and solar energy flux density can largely be accounted for through scatter in the overestimation of cloud shades by point cloudiness. This is demonstrated using monthly averaged ...

C. J. Stigter

1983-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Curious and sublime: the connection between uncertainty and probability in physics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...InpressThe Everett interpretationOxford handbook on philosophy of physicsR. BattermanOxford...connection between uncertainty and probability in physics. | From its first significant appearance in physics, the notion of probability has been linked...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

The Department of Health perspective on handling uncertainties in health sciences  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Palmer and P. J. Hardaker The Department of Health perspective on handling uncertainties in health sciences Glenn Wells * Sandra Williams Sally...wells@dh.gsi.gov.uk ). Department of Health, Richmond House, 79 Whitehall, London SW1A...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Absolute vs. Intensity Limits for CO2 Emission Control: Performance Under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We elucidate the differences between absolute and intensity-based limits of CO2 emission when there is uncertainty about the future. We demonstrate that the two limits are identical under certainty, and rigorously establish ...

Sue Wing, Ian.

413

Electricity generation and emissions reduction decisions under uncertainty : a general equilibrium analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, Jennifer F. (Jennifer Faye)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Long term infrastructure investments under uncertainty in the electric power sector using approximate dynamic programming techniques  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A computer model was developed to find optimal long-term investment strategies for the electric power sector under uncertainty with respect to future regulatory regimes and market conditions. The model is based on a ...

Seelhof, Michael

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

The Life Cycles of Sales and Profits: Dealing with the Uncertainties of the Commercialization Process  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The text briefly revisits some basic techniques of planning under uncertainty, including the calculation of net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return of a project, and scenario analysis.

Sten A. Thore

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Uncertainties in Achieving Energy Savings from HVAC Maintenance Measures in the Field  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Achieving Energy Savings from HVAC Maintenance Measures in the Field Kristin utilities across the nation to include HVAC maintenance measures in energy efficiency programs Maintenance measures have a significant potential for energy savings in residential and commercial unitary

California at Davis, University of

417

Assessing early investments in low carbon technologies under uncertainty : the case of Carbon Capture and Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate change is a threat that could be mitigated by introducing new energy technologies into the electricity market that emit fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We face many uncertainties that would affect the demand ...

Ereira, Eleanor Charlotte

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Coupled differential and integral data analysis for improved uncertainty quantification of the ?,??Cu cross section evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A new methodology has been developed that couples differential cross section data evaluation with integral benchmark analysis for improved uncertainty quantification. The new methodology was applied to the two new copper ...

Sobes, Vladimir

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Electricity Generation and Emissions Reduction Decisions under Policy Uncertainty: A General Equilibrium Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, J.

420

Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in calculated impacts of climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global models and the CMAQ model in 2050 ...

Liao, K.-J.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Compensating for model uncertainty in the control of cooperative field robots  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Current control and planning algorithms are largely unsuitable for mobile robots in unstructured field environment due to uncertainties in the environment, task, robot models and sensors. A key problem is that it is often ...

Sujan, Vivek Anand, 1972-

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

System level assessment of uncertainty in aviation environmental policy impact analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis demonstrates the assessment of uncertainty of a simulation model at the system level, which takes into account the interaction between the modules that comprise the system. Results from this system level ...

Liem, Rhea Patricia

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Biomethane for Transport: Uncertainties and Allocation Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Employing a life-cycle assessment approach, this paper studies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from biomethane used as transportation fuel. It focuses on both GHG allocation methodologies and uncertainties regarding GHG emissions from biomethane. ...

V. Uusitalo; J. Havukainen; V. Kapustina; R. Soukka; M. Horttanainen

2014-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

424

Evaluating and developing parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis methods for a computationally intensive distributed hydrological model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study focuses on developing and evaluating efficient and effective parameter calibration and uncertainty methods for hydrologic modeling. Five single objective optimization algorithms and six multi-objective optimization algorithms were tested...

Zhang, Xuesong

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

425

Water Managers' Strategies for Addressing Uncertainty in Their Use of GIS for Decision-Making  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

included locating future water supply wells using demographic data and routing new transmission lines of the uncertainty is." The second interview subject responded along similar lines, noting that "We use a variety

Hall, Sharon J.

426

Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming: A Case Study of Wind Power  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The present paper adopts a real options approach to value wind power investments under uncertainty. Flexibility arises from the possibility to defer the construction of a wind farm until more information is av...

Klaus Vogstad; Trine Krogh Kristoffersen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

1995-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

428

Using conservation to reduce energy system uncertainty in the US north-west electric system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The uncertainty of the US north-west electric system was the subject of a recent study for the Bonneville Power Administration. The study focused on the impact of efficiency standards that would reduce the electricity used in new buildings and appliances. The main question was whether the standards would also reduce the long-term uncertainty in the system. This paper summarises the case study findings which should be of interest to energy planners in Europe as well as in the USA.

Andrew Ford

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Data uncertainty impact in radiotoxicity evaluation connected to EFR and IRF systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Time-dependent sensitivity techniques, which have been used in the past for standard reactor applications, have been adapted to calculate the impact of data uncertainties in radiotoxicity evaluations. The methodology has been applied to different strategies of radioactive waste management connected with the EFR and IFR reactor fuel cycles. Results are provided in terms of sensitivity coefficients to basic data (cross sections and decay constants), and uncertainties on global radiotoxicity at different times of storing after discharge.

Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M. [CEA Centre d`Etudes Nucleaires de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Direction des Reacteurs Nucleaires; Hill, R.N. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Synoptic Sky Surveys and the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background: Removing Astrophysical Uncertainties and Revealing Invisible Supernovae  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The cumulative (anti)neutrino production from all core-collapse supernovae within our cosmic horizon gives rise to the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB), which is on the verge of detectability. The observed flux depends on supernova physics, but also on the cosmic history of supernova explosions; currently, the cosmic supernova rate introduces a substantial (+/-40%) uncertainty, largely through its absolute normalization. However, a new class of wide-field, repeated-scan (synoptic) optical sky surveys is coming online, and will map the sky in the time domain with unprecedented depth, completeness, and dynamic range. We show that these surveys will obtain the cosmic supernova rate by direct counting, in an unbiased way and with high statistics, and thus will allow for precise predictions of the DSNB. Upcoming sky surveys will substantially reduce the uncertainties in the DSNB source history to an anticipated +/-5% that is dominated by systematics, so that the observed high-energy flux thus will test supernova neutrino physics. The portion of the universe (z invisible supernovae, which may be unseen either due to unexpected large dust obscuration in host galaxies, or because some core-collapse events proceed directly to black hole formation and fail to give an optical outburst.

Amy Lien; Brian D. Fields; John F. Beacom

2010-01-20T23:59:59.000Z

432

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (1520), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

Perk, Zoltn, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl; Kloosterman, Jan Leen, E-mail: J.L.Kloosterman@tudelft.nl

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

State-of-the-Art Solar Simulator Reduces Measurement Time and Uncertainty (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One-Sun Multisource Solar Simulator (OSMSS) brings accurate energy-rating predictions that account for the nonlinear behavior of multijunction photovoltaic devices. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is one of only a few International Organization for Standardization (ISO)-accredited calibration labs in the world for primary and secondary reference cells and modules. As such, it is critical to seek new horizons in developing simulators and measurement methods. Current solar simulators are not well suited for accurately measuring multijunction devices. To set the electrical current to each junction independently, simulators must precisely tune the spectral content with no overlap between the wavelength regions. Current simulators do not have this capability, and the overlaps lead to large measurement uncertainties of {+-}6%. In collaboration with LabSphere, NREL scientists have designed and implemented the One-Sun Multisource Solar Simulator (OSMSS), which enables automatic spectral adjustment with nine independent wavelength regions. This fiber-optic simulator allows researchers and developers to set the current to each junction independently, reducing errors relating to spectral effects. NREL also developed proprietary software that allows this fully automated simulator to rapidly 'build' a spectrum under which all junctions of a multijunction device are current matched and behave as they would under a reference spectrum. The OSMSS will reduce the measurement uncertainty for multijunction devices, while significantly reducing the current-voltage measurement time from several days to minutes. These features will enable highly accurate energy-rating predictions that take into account the nonlinear behavior of multijunction photovoltaic devices.

Not Available

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Vigil, Dena M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Lefantzi, Sophia (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Eddy, John P.

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

The ends of uncertainty: Air quality science and planning in Central California  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Air quality planning in Central California is complicated and controversial despite millions of dollars invested to improve scientific understanding. This research describes and critiques the use of photochemical air quality simulation modeling studies in planning to attain standards for ground-level ozone in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley during the 1990's. Data are gathered through documents and interviews with planners, modelers, and policy-makers at public agencies and with representatives from the regulated and environmental communities. Interactions amongst organizations are diagramed to identify significant nodes of interaction. Dominant policy coalitions are described through narratives distinguished by their uses of and responses to uncertainty, their exposures to risks, and their responses to the principles of conservatism, civil duty, and caution. Policy narratives are delineated using aggregated respondent statements to describe and understand advocacy coalitions. I found that models impacted the planning process significantly, but were used not purely for their scientific capabilities. Modeling results provided justification for decisions based on other constraints and political considerations. Uncertainties were utilized opportunistically by stakeholders instead of managed explicitly. Ultimately, the process supported the partisan views of those in control of the modeling. Based on these findings, as well as a review of model uncertainty analysis capabilities, I recommend modifying the planning process to allow for the development and incorporation of uncertainty information, while addressing the need for inclusive and meaningful public participation. By documenting an actual air quality planning process these findings provide insights about the potential for using new scientific information and understanding to achieve environmental goals, most notably the analysis of uncertainties in modeling applications. Concurrently, needed uncertainty information is identified and capabilities to produce it are assessed. Practices to facilitate incorporation of uncertainty information are suggested based on research findings, as well as theory from the literatures of the policy sciences, decision sciences, science and technology studies, consensus-based and communicative planning, and modeling.

Fine, James

2003-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Total Measurement Uncertainty for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Segmented Gamma Scan Assay System  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents the results of an evaluation of the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for the Canberra manufactured Segmented Gamma Scanner Assay System (SGSAS) as employed at the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). In this document, TMU embodies the combined uncertainties due to all of the individual random and systematic sources of measurement uncertainty. It includes uncertainties arising from corrections and factors applied to the analysis of transuranic waste to compensate for inhomogeneities and interferences from the waste matrix and radioactive components. These include uncertainty components for any assumptions contained in the calibration of the system or computation of the data. Uncertainties are propagated at 1 sigma. The final total measurement uncertainty value is reported at the 95% confidence level. The SGSAS is a gamma assay system that is used to assay plutonium and uranium waste. The SGSAS system can be used in a stand-alone mode to perform the NDA characterization of a container, particularly for low to medium density (0-2.5 g/cc) container matrices. The SGSAS system provides a full gamma characterization of the container content. This document is an edited version of the Rocky Flats TMU Report for the Can Scan Segment Gamma Scanners, which are in use for the plutonium residues projects at the Rocky Flats plant. The can scan segmented gamma scanners at Rocky Flats are the same design as the PFP SGSAS system and use the same software (with the exception of the plutonium isotopics software). Therefore, all performance characteristics are expected to be similar. Modifications in this document reflect minor differences in the system configuration, container packaging, calibration technique, etc. These results are supported by the Quality Assurance Objective (QAO) counts, safeguards test data, calibration data, etc. for the PFP SGSAS system. Other parts of the TMU analysis utilize various modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) and In Situ Object Counting Software (ISOCS).

WESTSIK, G.A.

2001-06-06T23:59:59.000Z

437

Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

2013-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

438

Cost model for optimum thicknesses of insulated walls considering indirect impacts and uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Nowadays, insulation is increasingly used for houses and buildings for its economic and environmental advantages. The performance of an insulated construction depends mainly on the thickness and the properties of the used insulation material. However, this performance is subjected to various uncertainties related for instance to the manufacturing process of the material and to the different workmanship errors that affect the thermal resistance of the insulated construction. In practice, these uncertainties are still rarely considered in energy analysis. Nevertheless, beyond a given level of uncertainties, the insulation system does not perform as expected which induces additional unexpected costs related to energy and pollution. This work aims first, at showing the impact of these uncertainties on the reliability of the insulated construction and second, at developing a new formulation of the global cost for the design of insulation system considering additional costs related to user and environment. The proposed cost formulation allows us to provide a better estimation of the payback period. Three configurations are considered with different insulation schemes in order to show the impact of uncertainties and indirect costs on the insulation performance.

A. Assani; A. Chateauneuf; J.-P. Fontaine; Ph. Audebert

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

The future viability of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This study presents a techno-economic assessment of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties associated with the development of algal biorefineries. A global sensitivity analysis was performed using a High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) method. It was found that, considering reasonable ranges over which each parameter can vary, the sensitivity of the biodiesel production cost to the key input parameters decreases in the following order: algae oil content>algae annual productivity per unit area>plant production capacity>carbon price increase rate. It was also found that the Return on Investment (ROI) is highly sensitive to the algae oil content, and to a lesser extent to the algae annual productivity, crude oil price and price increase rate, plant production capacity, and carbon price increase rate. For a large scale plant (100,000tonnes of biodiesel per year) the production cost of biodiesel is likely to be 0.81.6 per kg.

George Brownbridge; Pooya Azadi; Andrew Smallbone; Amit Bhave; Benjamin Taylor; Markus Kraft

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of Geologic Disposal Systems Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of Geologic Disposal Systems Development and implementation of future advanced fuel cycles including those that recycle fuel materials, use advanced fuels different from current fuels, or partition and transmute actinide radionuclides, will impact the waste management system. The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign can reasonably conclude that advanced fuel cycles, in combination with partitioning and transmutation, which remove actinides, will not materially alter the performance, the spread in dose results around the mean, the modeling effort to include significant features, events, and processes

442

Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of Geologic Disposal Systems Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of Geologic Disposal Systems Development and implementation of future advanced fuel cycles including those that recycle fuel materials, use advanced fuels different from current fuels, or partition and transmute actinide radionuclides, will impact the waste management system. The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign can reasonably conclude that advanced fuel cycles, in combination with partitioning and transmutation, which remove actinides, will not materially alter the performance, the spread in dose results around the mean, the modeling effort to include significant features, events, and processes

443

2012 CERTS R&M Peer Review - Summary: Transmission Investment Under Uncertainty - Ben Hobbs  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Investment Assessment Under Uncertainty about Fuel Prices, Investment Assessment Under Uncertainty about Fuel Prices, Technology, Renewables Penetration and Market Responses using a Multi-Stage Stochastic Model Approach with Recourse (Year 2) Project Lead: Hobbs Co-investigators: Schuler, Zimmerman July 20, 2012 1. Project objective To develop and apply a methodology for evaluating the impact of market, technology, and policy uncertainties upon transmission planning on a regional and multi-decadal time scale. The methodology will integrate transmission capacity expansion decisions and OPF methodologies in a decomposition scheme in order to rigorously capture operational constraints such as security constraints, ramp limitations, and transmission flow limits, as well as longer term investment issues. The methodology would address questions such

444

Integration of the NUREG-1150 analyses: Calculation of risk and propagation of uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The calculation of risk and the propagation of uncertainties in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's reassessment of risk from commercial nuclear power stations (i.e., NUREG-1150) is described. The overall integration of the analysis performed for each nuclear power station considered in NUREG-1150 is based on: (1) relatively fast-running models for the individual parts of the analysis, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual parts of the analysis, (3) definition of selected issues for uncertainty analysis, (4) use of Monte Carlo procedures in conjunction with an efficient sampling technique (i.e., Latin hypercubs sampling) to propagate uncertainties, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. The preceding approach is described and then illustrated with the analysis performed for the Peach Bottom nuclear power station. 56 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

Helton, J.C.; Griesmeyer, J.M.; Haskin, F.E.; Iman, R.L.; Amos, C.N.; Murfin, W.B.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energys Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification through PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. This computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.

John C Eslick, John C; Ng, Brenda Ng; Gao, Qianwen; Tong, Charles H.; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.; Miller, David C.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Inverse Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methods Development for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Applications  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) software package developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory includes codes that propagate uncertainties available in the nuclear data libraries to compute uncertainties in nuclear application performance parameters. We report on our recent efforts to extend this capability to develop an inverse sensitivity/uncertainty (IS/U) methodology that identifies the improvements in nuclear data that are needed to compute application responses within prescribed tolerances, while minimizing the cost of such data improvements. We report on our progress to date and present a simple test case for our method. Our methodology is directly applicable to thermal and intermediate neutron energy systems because it addresses the implicit neutron resonance self-shielding effects that are essential to accurate modeling of thermal and intermediate systems. This methodology is likely to increase the efficiency of nuclear data efforts.

G. Arbanas; M.E. Dunn; M.L. Williams

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Uncertainty Analysis of Spectral Irradiance Reference Standards Used for NREL Calibrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Spectral irradiance produced by lamp standards such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) FEL-type tungsten halogen lamps are used to calibrate spectroradiometers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Spectroradiometers are often used to characterize spectral irradiance of solar simulators, which in turn are used to characterize photovoltaic device performance, e.g., power output and spectral response. Therefore, quantifying the calibration uncertainty of spectroradiometers is critical to understanding photovoltaic system performance. In this study, we attempted to reproduce the NIST-reported input variables, including the calibration uncertainty in spectral irradiance for a standard NIST lamp, and quantify uncertainty for measurement setup at the Optical Metrology Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Reda, I.; Campanelli, M.; Stoffel, T.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Conditional inevitability: Expert perceptions of carbon capture and storage uncertainties in the UK context  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents findings on expert perceptions of uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and policy in the UK, through survey data and semi-structured interviews with 19 individual participants. Experts were interviewed in industry, research, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the summer of 2009 and were asked to comment on a range of technical processes as well as policy concerns. The survey revealed that perceptions of the technology conform to a certainty trough with users expressing the lowest level of uncertainty, and outsiders expressing the highest level of uncertainty. The interviews revealed that experts express certitude in the prospects for deploying large-scale CCS technology in the UK, all the while questioning several underlying technical and policy premises that are necessary to ensure this goal.

Benjamin Evar

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain a posterior distribution, which forms the basis for further inferences. In this paper, we adapt the imprecise Dirichlet model of Walley to represent epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. In this approach, epistemic uncertainty is expressed more cautiously via lower and upper expectations for each alpha-factor, along with a learning parameter which determines how quickly the model learns from observed data. For this application, we focus on elicitation of the learning parameter, and find that values in the range of 1 to 10 seem reasonable. The approach is compared with Kelly and Atwood's minimally informative Dirichlet prior for the alpha-factor model, which incorporated precise mean values for the alpha-factors, but which was otherwise quite diffuse. Next, we explore the use of a set of Gamma priors to model epistemic uncertainty in the marginal failure rate, expressed via a lower and upper expectation for this rate, again along with a learning parameter. As zero counts are generally less of an issue here, we find that the choice of this learning parameter is less crucial. Finally, we demonstrate how both epistemic uncertainty models can be combined to arrive at lower and upper expectations for all common-cause failure rates. Thereby, we effectively provide a full sensitivity analysis of common-cause failure rates, properly reflecting epistemic uncertainty of the analyst on all levels of the common-cause failure model.

Matthias C. M. Troffaes; Gero Walter; Dana Kelly

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Uncertainty methodology for the strongly coupled physical phenomena associated with annular flow  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Best-Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methods are slowly supplanting the use of deterministic analysis methods for thermal-hydraulic analyses. As the uncertainty methodologies evolve it is expected that, where both experimental techniques allow and data are available, there will be a shift to quantifying the uncertainty in increasingly more fundamental parameters. For example, for annular flow in a three-field analysis environment (vapor, liquid film, droplet), the driving parameters would be: a) film interfacial shear stress, b) droplet drag, c) droplet entrainment rate and d) droplet deposition rate. An improved annular flow modeling package was recently developed and implemented in an in-house version of the COBRA-TF best-estimate subchannel analysis tool (Lane, 2009). Significant improvement was observed in the code-to-data predictions of several steam-water annular flow tests following the implementation of this modeling package; however, to apply this model set in formal BEPU analysis requires uncertainty distributions to be determined. The unique aspect of annular flow, and the topic of the present work, is the strong coupling between the interfacial drag, entrainment and deposition phenomena. Ideally the uncertainty in each phenomenon would be isolated; however, the situation is further complicated by an inability to experimentally isolate and measure the individual rate processes (particularly entrainment rate), which results in available experimental data that are inherently integral in nature. This paper presents a methodology for isolating the individual physical phenomena of interest, to the extent that the currently available experimental data allow, and developing the corresponding uncertainty distributions for annular flow. (authors)

Lane, J. W.; Aumiller Jr, D. L. [Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory, West Mifflin, PA 15122 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow: Risk-Aware Network Control under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

When uncontrollable resources fluctuate, Optimum Power Flow (OPF), routinely used by the electric power industry to re-dispatch hourly controllable generation (coal, gas and hydro plants) over control areas of transmission networks, can result in grid instability, and, potentially, cascading outages. This risk arises because OPF dispatch is computed without awareness of major uncertainty, in particular fluctuations in renewable output. As a result, grid operation under OPF with renewable variability can lead to frequent conditions where power line flow ratings are significantly exceeded. Such a condition, which is borne by simulations of real grids, would likely resulting in automatic line tripping to protect lines from thermal stress, a risky and undesirable outcome which compromises stability. Smart grid goals include a commitment to large penetration of highly fluctuating renewables, thus calling to reconsider current practices, in particular the use of standard OPF. Our Chance Constrained (CC) OPF correct...

Bienstock, Daniel; Harnett, Sean

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Uncertainty Estimates for SIRS, SKYRAD, & GNDRAD Data and Reprocessing the Pyrgeometer Data (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility work together in providing data from strategically located in situ measurement observatories around the world. Both work together in improving and developing new technologies that assist in acquiring high quality radiometric data. In this presentation we summarize the uncertainty estimates of the ARM data collected at the ARM Solar Infrared Radiation Station (SIRS), Sky Radiometers on Stand for Downwelling Radiation (SKYRAD), and Ground Radiometers on Stand for Upwelling Radiation (GNDRAD), which ultimately improve the existing radiometric data. Three studies are also included to show the difference between calibrating pyrgeometers (e.g., Eppley PIR) using the manufacturer blackbody versus the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG), a pyrgeometer aging study, and the sampling rate effect of correcting historical data.

Reda, I.; Stoffel, T.; Habte, A.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

External uncertainty and entry mode choice: Cultural distance, political risk and language diversity  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper aims at analyzing the effect of external uncertainty on the entry mode choice when investing abroad. We consider the effect of uncertainty coming from the formal host country's environment (political risk) and from the informal one (cultural distance). The potential existence of an interaction effect between both of them is also analyzed. In particular, we analyze how language diversity between the home and host countries may condition the influence of this interaction effect on the entry mode choice. In order to empirically test our predictions, a database of foreign direct investments made by Spanish firms is used.

Cristina Lpez-Duarte; Marta M. Vidal-Surez

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Discrete-event simulation of uncertainty in single-neutron experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A discrete-event simulation approach which provides a cause-and-effect description of many experiments with photons and neutrons exhibiting interference and entanglement is applied to a recent single-neutron experiment that tests (generalizations of) Heisenberg's uncertainty relation. The event-based simulation algorithm reproduces the results of the quantum theoretical description of the experiment but does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation nor does it rely on concepts of quantum theory. In particular, the data satisfies uncertainty relations derived in the context of quantum theory.

Hans De Raedt; Kristel Michielsen

2014-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

456

Damage detection accuracy as a function of model uncertainty in offshore jacket platforms  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of model uncertainty on the accuracy of a nondestructive damage detection technique when applied to an offshore jacket platform is assessed. First, a nondestructive algorithm to locate and size damage from a few mode shapes of structures is outlined. Next, numerical damage localization and severity estimation exercises are performed for an example of an offshore jacket platform. Finally, the accuracy of damage localization and severity estimation results in the numerical example is assessed as a function of model uncertainties for the structure.

Kim, J.T. [National Fisheries Univ. of Pusan (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Ocean Engineering; Stubbs, N. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

457

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of ballast life-cycle cost and payback period  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The paper introduces an innovative methodology for evaluating the relative significance of energy-efficient technologies applied to fluorescent lamp ballasts. The method involves replacing the point estimates of life cycle cost of the ballasts with uncertainty distributions reflecting the whole spectrum of possible costs, and the assessed probability associated with each value. The results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses will help analysts reduce effort in data collection and carry on analysis more efficiently. These methods also enable policy makers to gain an insightful understanding of which efficient technology alternatives benefit or cost what fraction of consumers, given the explicit assumptions of the analysis.

McMahon, James E.; Liu, Xiaomin; Turiel, Ike; Hakim, Sajid; Fisher, Diane

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium-Size Office Building  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Buildingand actual building energy consumption can be attributed touncertainties in energy consumption due to actual weather

Wang, Liping

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in reactor design verification Part II: Flux measurement analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract As for any new reactor design, the ACR-1000 design has to go through a comprehensive design verification process. One of the activities for supporting the ACR physics design calculations using the ACR physics code toolset, namely WIMS-AECL/DRAGON/RFSP, is to compare the flux distributions resulting from the calculation using this toolset at various power calibration monitor (PCM) detector locations against the flux measurement data from the Japanese Advanced Thermal Reactor (ATR) FUGEN. The discussion of this particular design verification exercise will be presented in a two-part paper. The usage of data from the FUGEN reactor qualifies this exercise as design verification by alternate analysis. In order to have meaningful results at the end of the design verification process, the similarity between the ACR-1000 and FUGEN reactors has to be demonstrated. It is accomplished through the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation) methodology. The results from the similarity comparison have been presented in Part I of the paper. In Part II, results from flux distribution comparison will be presented. Favourable results from this design verification exercise give a high level of confidence that using the same physics toolset in calculating the flux distribution for ACR-1000 reactor will produce results with acceptable fidelity. In addition, the results will also give an indication of expected margins in the design calculations, not only at the locations of the PCM detectors but also at the derived bundle and channel powers obtained through the flux mapping calculation.

Doddy Kastanya; Mohamed Dahmani

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

A probabilistic framework for problems with real structured uncertainty in systems and control  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, the problem of generation of real random matrix samples with uniform distribution in structured (spectral) norm bounded sets is studied. This includes an analysis of the distribution of the singular values ... Keywords: Randomized algorithms, Robustness, Structured real uncertainty

Giuseppe Calafiore; Fabrizio Dabbene

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Uncertainty-based Sensor Fusion of Range Data for Real-time Digital Elevation Mapping (RTDEM)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the environment that allows fusion of sensory range data of various types and fidelities while explicitly takingUncertainty-based Sensor Fusion of Range Data for Real-time Digital Elevation Mapping (RTDEM) Lars classes of environment modeling. Index Terms-- Terrain estimation, sensor fusion, 2.5D ele- vation mapping

Murray, Richard M.

462

Strategic Investment in Power Generation under Uncertainty Electric Reliability Council of Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Strategic Investment in Power Generation under Uncertainty Electric Reliability Council of Texas and Engineering Systems Director, Technology and Policy Program #12;#12;Strategic Investment in Power Generation to the Electricity Student Research Group for the contagious passion for electricity and sharing of knowledge

463

Real-Time Deferrable Load Control: Handling the Uncertainties of Renewable Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Deferrable Load Control: Handling the Uncertainties of Renewable Generation Lingwen Gan for handling the un- certainties of renewable generation. Traditionally, demand response has been focused in renewable generation. In this paper, we propose a real-time distributed deferrable load control algorithm

Low, Steven H.

464

Energy-saving technology adoption under uncertainty in the residential sector  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Energy-saving technology adoption under uncertainty in the residential sector Dorothée Charlier in the energy-saving technology, to save or to consume energy goods and non-energy goods. Resolution in the same way as in a partial equilibrium framework. JEL classification: Q55, D11, D81,C61 Keywords : energy-saving

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

465

Uncertainties Associated with Theoretically Calculated N2-Broadened Half-Widths of H2O Lines  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to be calculated theoretically. The accuracy of these calculated values depends on many factors such as the line-shape1 Uncertainties Associated with Theoretically Calculated N2- Broadened Half-Widths of H2O Lines Q-offs used in the theoretical calculations, we have carried out extensive numerical calculations of the N2

Gamache, Robert R.

466

Analysing Uncertainties for CCS: From Historical Analogues to Future Deployment Pathways in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Whilst carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are now in the demonstration phase, they are still characterised by a range of technical, economic, policy, social and legal uncertainties. This paper presents the results of an interdisciplinary research project funded by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). The aim of the project was to analyse the main uncertainties facing potential investors in CCS and policy makers wishing to support these technologies through demonstration to commercial deployment. The paper presents a framework for the analysis of these uncertainties, and applies this framework to nine analogue case studies of CCS. These case studies have focused on historical developments in technologies and/or policy frameworks where one or more of these uncertainties has been prominent and have, in most cases, been partly resolved. The paper also shows applies the insights from these historical case studies to develop three potential pathways for CCS deployment in the UK over the period to 2030. Finally, the paper concludes with some implications for CCS policies and strategies.

Hannah Chalmers; Jon Gibbins; Rob Gross; Stuart Haszeldine; Phil Heptonstall; Florian Kern; Nils Markusson; Peter Pearson; Jim Watson; Mark Winskel

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Methodology for uncertainty estimation in NUREG-1150 (Draft): Conclusions of a review panel  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A review has been undertaken by a panel of experts, of the methodology for estimation of uncertainty in severe accident risk resulting from accidents to nuclear power plants as presented in the Draft NUREG-1150 report. This report provides detailed dicussions and conclusions resulting from this review process.

Kouts, H.; Cornell, A.; Farmer, R.; Hanauer, S.; Rasmussen, N.

1987-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Ex-plant consequence assessment for NUREG-1150: Models, typical results, uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The assessment of ex-plant consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms was performed using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). This paper will briefly discuss the following elements of MACCS consequence calculations: input data, phenomena modeled, computational framework, typical results, controlling phenomena, and uncertainties. Wherever possible, NUREG-1150 results will be used to illustrate the discussion. 28 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.

Sprung, J.L.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Energy Efficiency in the Low-SNR Regime under Queueing Constraints and Channel Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Energy Efficiency in the Low-SNR Regime under Queueing Constraints and Channel Uncertainty Deli Qiao, Mustafa Cenk Gursoy, and Senem Velipasalar Abstract Energy efficiency of fixed-rate transmissions probabilities. The optimal fraction of power allocated to training is identified. Energy efficiency

Gursoy, Mustafa Cenk

470

Energy and Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms for Complex Energy Systems Warren B. Powell  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, using a simple energy storage problem as a case application. Using this setting, we describe a common umbrella. The challenge of creating an efficient, sustainable energy system requires solvingEnergy and Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms for Complex Energy Systems Warren B. Powell

Powell, Warren B.

471

Validation Process and Uncertainty Budget: A Recommended Approach for Performance Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......process. This paper reviews methods recommended...and a validation plan shall be created...according to the plan. Finally a validation...stated by law or the regulatory authority. UNCERTAINTY...consistent validation plan therefore specifies...process. This paper reviews methods recommended......

R. Cruz Surez; J. Zeger

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Invited Review Article: Measurement uncertainty of linear phase-stepping algorithms  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Phase retrieval techniques are widely used in optics, imaging and electronics. Originating in signal theory, they were introduced to interferometry around 1970. Over the years, many robust phase-stepping techniques have been developed that minimize specific experimental influence quantities such as phase step errors or higher harmonic components of the signal. However, optimizing a technique for a specific influence quantity can compromise its performance with regard to others. We present a consistent quantitative analysis of phase measurement uncertainty for the generalized linear phase stepping algorithm with nominally equal phase stepping angles thereby reviewing and generalizing several results that have been reported in literature. All influence quantities are treated on equal footing, and correlations between them are described in a consistent way. For the special case of classical N-bucket algorithms, we present analytical formulae that describe the combined variance as a function of the phase angle values. For the general Arctan algorithms, we derive expressions for the measurement uncertainty averaged over the full 2{pi}-range of phase angles. We also give an upper bound for the measurement uncertainty which can be expressed as being proportional to an algorithm specific factor. Tabular compilations help the reader to quickly assess the uncertainties that are involved with his or her technique.

Hack, Erwin [EMPA, Laboratory Electronics/Metrology/Reliability, Ueberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Burke, Jan [Australian Centre for Precision Optics, CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) Materials Science and Engineering, P.O. Box 218, Lindfield, NSW 2070 (Australia)

2011-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

473

Processing Quantities with Heavy-Tailed Distribution of Measurement Uncertainty: How  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Processing Quantities with Heavy-Tailed Distribution of Measurement Uncertainty: How to Estimate, the distribution of measurement errors is sometimes heavy-tailed, when very large values have a reasonable, in the amount of oil in an oil well, etc. In such situations in which we cannot measure y directly, we can often

Kreinovich, Vladik

474

Wind energy potential assessment considering the uncertainties due to limited data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A new Bayesian approach is proposed to estimate the annual energy production (AEP) of a site where construction of wind turbines is considered. The approach uses long-term wind speeds of a nearby weather station and short-term wind speeds near the target site. Uncertainties exist due to the limited amount of data in the target site, in addition to the inherent uncertainties in the wind speed, the air density, the surface roughness exponent, and the power performance of the turbine. The proposed method systematically addresses these uncertainties and provides the distribution of the AEP. For illustration, we used the wind speed data near Yeosu, Korea, and the power performance curve of a 3MW turbine. For the site and the turbine studied, the range given by the 95% confidence interval corresponded to 8.9% of the mean AEP, and the range given by the 99% confidence interval corresponded to 11.9% of the mean AEP. Benefits of using the Bayesian approach compared to the classical statistical inference was also illustrated with the case study. The proposed approach provides a more conservative estimation considering the uncertainties due to the limited amount of data. Distributions of parameters of the prediction model are also provided, which enables a more detailed analysis of the prediction.

Sungmoon Jung; O. Arda Vanli; Soon-Duck Kwon

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Estimating Variance under Interval and Fuzzy Uncertainty: Case of Hierarchical Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. In practice, these values come either from measurements or from expert estimates. In both case, we get only for these characteristics. It is desirable to estimate the accuracy of these approximations. Case of measurement uncertainty. Measurements are never 100% accurate. As a result, the result x of the measurement is, in general, different

Kreinovich, Vladik

476

Residential Demand Response under Uncertainty Paul Scott and Sylvie Thiebaux and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Residential Demand Response under Uncertainty Paul Scott and Sylvie Thi´ebaux and Menkes van den stochastic optimisation in residential demand response. 1 Introduction Electricity consumption in residential participate in smart grid activities such as demand response where loads are shifted to times favourable

Thiébaux, Sylvie

477

An Investigation into the Relationship Between Type-2 FOU Size and Environmental Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of automated control type-2 fuzzy logic based controllers will out perform the simpler type-1 varieties due, Fuzzy Control, Uncertainty I. INTRODUCTION A fuzzy logic system maps single discrete inputs into a fuzzy performance penalties for incorrectly sized systems. Keywords: Interval Type-2 Fuzzy, Robot Boat control

Aickelin, Uwe

478

Uncertainties in Estimating Moisture Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea ALBERTO M. MESTAS-NUEZ  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by these uncertainties. Therefore, NCEP­ NCAR reanalysis, with its global coverage and long-term record, can be used-third of all the summer moisture that enters the continental United States is transported by the GPLLJ (Helfand United States. Future re- search aimed at understanding summer precipitation must therefore deal

479

Managing Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the price of which follows supply and demand imbalances. Electricity prices, which were tightly controlled that occurred in the Midwest during the week of June 22, 1998, when the day-ahead electricity price departedManaging Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach Samer Takriti

Ahmed, Shabbir

480

Optimal configurations of spatial scale for grid cell firing under noise and uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...cell firing under noise and uncertainty Benjamin W. Towse 1 2 Caswell Barry 1 2 3 4 Daniel...Barry, C , Hayman, RM, Burgess, N, Jeffery, KJ. 2007 Experience-dependent rescaling...Hartley, T, Burton, S, O'Keefe, J, Jeffery, K, Burgess, N. 2006 The boundary...

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

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481

Uncertainty of Oil Field GHG Emissions Resulting from Information Gaps: A Monte Carlo Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainty of Oil Field GHG Emissions Resulting from Information Gaps: A Monte Carlo Approach ... Regulations on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from liquid fuel production generally work with incomplete data about oil production operations. ... We study the effect of incomplete information on estimates of GHG emissions from oil production operations. ...

Kourosh Vafi; Adam R. Brandt

2014-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

482

Uncertainty in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from United States Coal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyses involving coal. Greenhouse gas emissions from fuel use and methane releases at coal mines, fuel.5 million metric tons of methane emissions. Close to 95% of domestic coal was consumed by the electricityUncertainty in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from United States Coal Aranya Venkatesh

Jaramillo, Paulina

483

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...constraints on the demand side, balance-of-payments...intervene in the management of reserve stocks...exploit supply-side yield gaps where...import to satisfy food demand. Three regions have...Rigorous and transparent management of uncertainty is...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Review of uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design optimization methods for aerospace vehicles  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a comprehensive review of Uncertainty-Based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (UMDO) theory and the state of the art in UMDO methods for aerospace vehicles. UMDO has been widely acknowledged as an advanced methodology to address competing objectives of aerospace vehicle design, such as performance, cost, reliability and robustness. However the major challenges of UMDO, namely the computational complexity and organizational complexity caused by both time-consuming disciplinary analysis models and UMDO algorithms, still greatly hamper its application in aerospace engineering. In recent years there is a surge of research in this field aiming at solving these problems. The purpose of this paper is to review these existing approaches systematically, highlight research challenges and opportunities, and help guide future efforts. Firstly, the UMDO theory preliminaries are introduced to clarify the basic UMDO concepts and mathematical formulations, as well as provide a panoramic view of the general UMDO solving process. Then following the UMDO solving process, research progress of each key step is separately surveyed and discussed, specifically including uncertainty modeling, uncertainty propagation and analysis, optimization under uncertainty, and UMDO procedure. Finally some conclusions are given, and future research trends and prospects are discussed.

Wen Yao; Xiaoqian Chen; Wencai Luo; Michel van Tooren; Jian Guo

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, oil price uncertainty, abatement investment, sulfur emissions, pulp and paper industry, energy ex post data. The method is based on a structural option value model where the future price using a panel of firms from the Swedish pulp and paper industry, and the energy and heating sector

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

486

G E O M A T I C A SPATIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

G E O M A T I C A SPATIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY IN THE VGI WORLD: GOING FROM CONSUMER TO PRODUCER Joel To date, spatial data quality management has predominantly consisted of documenting processes. In this paper, we argue that involving a larger group of volunteer end-users in the spatial data uncer- tainty

487

Uncertainty Management for Spatial Data in Databases: Fuzzy Spatial Data Types  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty Management for Spatial Data in Databases: Fuzzy Spatial Data Types Markus Schneider an abstract, conceptual model of so­called fuzzy spatial data types (i.e., a fuzzy spatial algebra types called spatial data types (see [Sch97] for a survey) have been designed for modeling these spatial

Güting, Ralf Hartmut

488

UNCERTAINTY CALIBRATION OF LARGE-ORDER MODELS OF BRIDGES USING AMBIENT VIBRATION MEASUREMENTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

UNCERTAINTY CALIBRATION OF LARGE-ORDER MODELS OF BRIDGES USING AMBIENT VIBRATION MEASUREMENTS frequencies and mode shapes based on ambient vibration measurements collected from a wireless mobile measuring, such as modal frequencies, modal damping ratios and mode shapes, through vibration measurements, as well

Boyer, Edmond

489

Joint Uncertainty Decoding with Unscented Transform for Noise-robust Subspace Gaussian Mixture Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

T S C R T S C #12;Noise compensation Larger modelling power higher recognition accuracy. Our systemsJoint Uncertainty Decoding with Unscented Transform for Noise-robust Subspace Gaussian Mixture [Povey et al., 2011] In mismatched condition (i.e. noise), the gain disappears Goal Noise compensation

Edinburgh, University of

490

Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for Nondestructive Assay of Transuranic (TRU) Waste at the WRAP Facility  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report examines the contributing factors to NDA measurement uncertainty at WRAP The significance of each factor on the TMU is analyzed and a final method is given for determining the TMU for NDA measurements at WRAP. As more data becomes available and WRAP gains in operational experience this report will be reviewed semi annually and updated as necessary.

WILLS, C.E.

2000-01-06T23:59:59.000Z

491

Multi-Agent Patrolling under Uncertainty and Threats Shaofei Chen1,2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multi-Agent Patrolling under Uncertainty and Threats Shaofei Chen1,2 , Feng Wu2 , Lincheng Shen1 information is distributed alongside threats. The informa- tion and threat at each location are respectively by an agent. While agents obtain information at a location, they may suffer attacks from the threat

Yeoh, William

492

Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications for policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Commentary Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications for policy MARK, there are intrinsic problems with modelling natural systems (Cartwright 1983). This is because it is impossible). The original IPCC reports used simplistic assumption of greenhouse gas emissions over the next 100 years. From

Jones, Peter JS

493

Adaptive Energy Consumption Scheduling with Load Uncertainty for the Smart Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Adaptive Energy Consumption Scheduling with Load Uncertainty for the Smart Grid Pedram Samadi of the future demand. Simulation r