Powered by Deep Web Technologies
Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

High-level waste qualification: Managing uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Qualification of high-level waste implies specifications driven by risk against which performance can be assessed. The inherent uncertainties should be addressed in the specifications and statistical methods should be employed to appropriately manage these uncertainties. Uncertainties exist whenever measurements are obtained, sampling is employed, or processes are affected by systematic or random perturbations. This paper presents the approach and statistical methods currently employed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and West Valley Nuclear Services (WVNS) to characterize, minimize, and control uncertainties pertinent to a waste-form acceptance specification concerned with product consistency.

Pulsipher, B.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

2

Capturing Data Uncertainty in High-Volume Stream Processing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present the design and development of a data stream system that captures data uncertainty from data collection to query processing to final result generation. Our system focuses on data that is naturally modeled as continuous random variables. For such data, our system employs an approach grounded in probability and statistical theory to capture data uncertainty and integrates this approach into high-volume stream processing. The first component of our system captures uncertainty of raw data streams from sensing devices. Since such raw streams can be highly noisy and may not carry sufficient information for query processing, our system employs probabilistic models of the data generation process and stream-speed inference to transform raw data into a desired format with an uncertainty metric. The second component captures uncertainty as data propagates through query operators. To efficiently quantify result uncertainty of a query operator, we explore a variety of techniques based on probability and statisti...

Diao, Yanlei; Liu, Anna; Peng, Liping; Sutton, Charles; Tran, Thanh; Zink, Michael

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

2012-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

4

Uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

Thomas, R.E.

1982-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Uncertainty of calorimeter measurements at NREL's high flux solar furnace  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The uncertainties of the calorimeter and concentration measurements at the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are discussed. Two calorimeter types have been used to date. One is an array of seven commercially available circular foil calorimeters (gardon or heat flux gages) for primary concentrator peak flux (up to 250 W/cm{sup 2}). The second is a cold-water calorimeter designed and built by the University of Chicago to measure the average exit power of the reflective compound parabolic secondary concentrator used at the HFSF (over 3.3 kW across a 1.6cm{sup {minus}2} exit aperture, corresponding to a flux of about 2 kW/cm{sup 2}). This paper discussed the uncertainties of the calorimeter and pyrheliometer measurements and resulting concentration calculations. The measurement uncertainty analysis is performed according to the ASME/ANSI standard PTC 19.1 (1985). Random and bias errors for each portion of the measurement are analyzed. The results show that as either the power or the flux is reduced, the uncertainties increase. Another calorimeter is being designed for a new, refractive secondary which will use a refractive material to produce a higher average flux (5 kW/cm{sup 2}) than the reflective secondary. The new calorimeter will use a time derivative of the fluid temperature as a key measurement of the average power out of the secondary. A description of this calorimeter and test procedure is also presented, along with a pre-test estimate of major sources of uncertainty. 8 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

Bingham, C.E.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

7

Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Mccomiskey, Allison

8

Physical Design for Reduced Delay Uncertainty in High Performance Clock Distribution Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

531 Physical Design for Reduced Delay Uncertainty in High Performance Clock Distribution Networks, the design of a clock distribution network represents one of the most challenging tasks in the integrated in the design of a high performance clock distribution network [1]. The uncertainty of the clock signal delay

Friedman, Eby G.

9

Effect of aerodynamic uncertainties on unconventional lateral control at high angle of attack  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EFFECT OF AERODYNAMIC UNCERTAINTIES ON UNCONVENTIONAL LATERAL CONTROL AT HIGH ANGLE OF ATTACK A Thesis by BOB GENSEN ELLER Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1987 Major Subject: Aerospace Engineering EFFECT OF AERODYNAMIC UNCERTAINTIES ON UNCONVENTIONAL LATEHAI CONTROL AT HIGH ANGI. E (&F A'I'TACK A Thesis by BOB GENSEN ELLER Approved as to style and content by: Donald T...

Eller, Bob Gensen

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares ...

Jiang, Yueyang

11

Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating 4.1 Oil Prices...............................................................................................14 4.1.1 Analysis of historical oil prices........................................................15

Bhulai, Sandjai

12

Trajectories without quantum uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A common knowledge suggests that trajectories of particles in quantum mechanics always have quantum uncertainties. These quantum uncertainties set by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle limit precision of measurements of fields and forces, and ultimately give rise to the standard quantum limit in metrology. With the rapid developments of sensitivity of measurements these limits have been approached in various types of measurements including measurements of fields and acceleration. Here we show that a quantum trajectory of one system measured relatively to the other "reference system" with an effective negative mass can be quantum uncertainty--free. The method crucially relies on the generation of an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entangled state of two objects, one of which has an effective negative mass. From a practical perspective these ideas open the way towards force and acceleration measurements at new levels of sensitivity far below the standard quantum limit.

Eugene S. Polzik; Klemens Hammerer

2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

13

Orifice flow measurement uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A computer program is now available from Union Carbide that evaluates the total flow uncertainty of orifice flowmeter systems. Tolerance values for every component in the system and the sensitivity of the measured flowrate to each component can be established using historical data and published hardware specifications. Knowing the tolerance and sensitivity values, a total measurement uncertainty can be estimated with a 95% confidence level. This computer program provides a powerful design tool to ensure correct component matching and total metering system optimization.

Samples, C.R.

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

Iaccarino, Gianluca

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

Lodwick, Weldon

16

Essays on uncertainty in economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis consists of four essays about "uncertainty" and how markets deal with it. Uncertainty is about subjective beliefs, and thus it often comes with heterogeneous beliefs that may be present temporarily or even ...

Simsek, Alp

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

18

Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit $-\\log_2c$. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.

Jun Feng; Yao-Zhong Zhang; Mark D. Gould; Heng Fan

2015-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

20

Utility Maximization under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Motivated by several search and optimization problems over uncertain datasets, we study the stochastic versions of a broad class of combinatorial problems where either the existences or the weights of the elements in the input dataset are uncertain. The class of problems that we study includes shortest paths, minimum weight spanning trees, and minimum weight matchings over probabilistic graphs; top-k queries over probabilistic datasets; and other combinatorial problems like knapsack. By noticing that the expected value is inadequate in capturing different types of risk-averse or risk-prone behaviors, we consider a more general objective which is to maximize the expected utility of the solution for some given utility function. For weight uncertainty model, we show that we can obtain a polynomial time approximation algorithm with additive error eps for any eps>0, if there is a pseudopolynomial time algorithm for the exact version of the problem. Our result generalizes several prior works on stochastic shortest ...

Li, Jian

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Quantifying uncertainty from material inhomogeneity.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most engineering materials are inherently inhomogeneous in their processing, internal structure, properties, and performance. Their properties are therefore statistical rather than deterministic. These inhomogeneities manifest across multiple length and time scales, leading to variabilities, i.e. statistical distributions, that are necessary to accurately describe each stage in the process-structure-properties hierarchy, and are ultimately the primary source of uncertainty in performance of the material and component. When localized events are responsible for component failure, or when component dimensions are on the order of microstructural features, this uncertainty is particularly important. For ultra-high reliability applications, the uncertainty is compounded by a lack of data describing the extremely rare events. Hands-on testing alone cannot supply sufficient data for this purpose. To date, there is no robust or coherent method to quantify this uncertainty so that it can be used in a predictive manner at the component length scale. The research presented in this report begins to address this lack of capability through a systematic study of the effects of microstructure on the strain concentration at a hole. To achieve the strain concentration, small circular holes (approximately 100 {micro}m in diameter) were machined into brass tensile specimens using a femto-second laser. The brass was annealed at 450 C, 600 C, and 800 C to produce three hole-to-grain size ratios of approximately 7, 1, and 1/7. Electron backscatter diffraction experiments were used to guide the construction of digital microstructures for finite element simulations of uniaxial tension. Digital image correlation experiments were used to qualitatively validate the numerical simulations. The simulations were performed iteratively to generate statistics describing the distribution of plastic strain at the hole in varying microstructural environments. In both the experiments and simulations, the deformation behavior was found to depend strongly on the character of the nearby microstructure.

Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Boyce, Brad Lee

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainty on investment: Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling.investment decisions to changes in uncertainty using Texas oiloil price uncertainty deters var- ious types of real economic activities, such as output production, investment,

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

24

Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods ...

Caballero, Ricardo J.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,Harvesting a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty 1 (with

Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...

27

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Business Model Change in Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Firms Facing High Uncertainty BUSINESS MODEL CHANGE IN EARLY-STAGE ENTREPRENEURIAL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Business Model Change in Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Firms Facing High Uncertainty 1 BUSINESS MODEL Business School, U.K. Changing business models is inevitable for early-stage entrepreneurial firms striving in elements of business models in a set of eight early-stage university spin-offs. Findings suggest

Mottram, Nigel

29

Experimental Uncertainties (Errors) Sources of Experimental Uncertainties (Experimental Errors)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the preparation of the lab report. A calculator should 1. Bevington, P. R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 2. Taylor, J. R., An introduction to uncertainty analysis in the lab. In this laboratory, we keep to a very simple form of error analysis, our purpose being more

Mukasyan, Alexander

30

Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasingEconomic History Revisited: New Uncertainties I n the last Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, we are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

31

Impact of orifice metering uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In a recent utility study, attributed 38% of its unaccounted-for UAF gas to orifice metering uncertainty biasing caused by straightening vanes. How this was determined and how this applied to the company's orifice meters is described. Almost all (97%) of the company's UAF gas was found to be attributed to identifiable accounting procedures, measurement problems, theft and leakage.

Stuart, J.W. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (USA))

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

4, 507532, 2004 Emission uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Physics Discussions Impact of different emission inventories on simulated tropospheric ozone over China The importance of emission inventory uncertainty on the simulation of summertime tro- pospheric Ozone over China has been analyzed using a regional chemical transport model. Three independent emissions inventories

Boyer, Edmond

33

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Optimization under uncertainty in radiation therapy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the context of patient care for life-threatening illnesses, the presence of uncertainty may compromise the quality of a treatment. In this thesis, we investigate robust approaches to managing uncertainty in radiation ...

Chan, Timothy Ching-Yee

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Quantum mechanical time contradicts the uncertainty principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The a priori time in conventional quantum mechanics is shown to contradict the uncertainty principle. A possible solution is given.

Hitoshi Kitada

1999-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

36

Entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present the entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurement settings in quantum mechanics. Those uncertainty relations are obtained for both cases with and without the presence of quantum memory. They take concise forms which can be proven in a unified method and easy to calculate. Our results recover the well known entropic uncertainty relations for two observables, which show the uncertainties about the outcomes of two incompatible measurements. Those uncertainty relations are applicable in both foundations of quantum theory and the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols.

Shang Liu; Liang-Zhu Mu; Heng Fan

2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

37

Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.

Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

39

Research yields precise uncertainty equations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Results of a study of orifice-meter accuracy by Chevron Oil Field Research Co. at its Venice, La., calibration facility have important implications for natural gas custody-transfer measurement. The calibration facility, data collection, and equipment calibration were described elsewhere. This article explains the derivation of uncertainty factors and details the study's findings. The results were based on calibration of two 16-in. orifice-meter runs. The experimental data cover a beta-ratio range of from 0.27 to 0.71 and a Reynolds number range of from 4,000,000 to 35,000,000. Discharge coefficients were determined by comparing the orifice flow to the flow from critical-flow nozzles.

Jones, E.H.; Ferguson, K.R.

1987-08-03T23:59:59.000Z

40

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy (more)

Sener, Adil Caner

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is pervasive for renewable resources, and it can play aConsider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,

Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: This report describes research towards the development of...

43

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: Temp Data Fields Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Lin, Guang; Crawford,...

44

Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Carbon Project · Scenarios trends are averages across all models available for each scenario class1928 2000 Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water Uncertainty in projected-2004Observed Changes: 1970-2004 · High confidence changes in: ­ rainfall intensity ­ extreme temperatures

Maurer,. Edwin P.

45

Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

46

Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Theoretical uncertainty of orifice flow measurement  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Orifice meters are the most common meters used for fluid flow measurement, especially for measuring hydrocarbons. Meters are rugged, mechanically simple, and well suited for field use under extreme weather conditions. Because of their long history of use and dominance in the fluid flow measurement, their designs, installation requirements, and equations for flow rate calculation have been standardized by different organizations in the United States and internationally. These standards provide the guideline for the users to achieve accurate flow measurement. and minimize measurement uncertainty. This paper discusses different factors that contribute to the measurement inaccuracy and provide an awareness to minimize or eliminate these errors. Many factors which influence the overall measurement uncertainty are associated with the orifice meter application. Major contributors to measurement uncertainty include the predictability of flow profile, fluid properties at flowing condition, precision of empirical equation for discharge coefficient, manufacturing tolerances in meter components, and the uncertainty associated with secondary devices monitoring the static line pressure, differential pressure across the orifice plate, flowing temperature, etc. Major factors contributing to the measurement uncertainty for a thin, concentric, square-edged orifice flowmeter are as follows: (a) Tolerances in prediction of coefficient of discharge, (b) Predictability in defining the physical properties of the flowing fluid, (c) Fluid flow condition, (d) Construction tolerances in meter components, (e) Uncertainty of secondary devices/instrumentation, and (f) Data reduction and computation. Different factors under each of the above areas are discussed with precautionary measures and installation procedures to minimize or eliminate measurement uncertainty.

Husain, Z.D. [Daniel Flow Products, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Fractional revivals through Rnyi uncertainty relations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We show that the R\\'enyi uncertainty relations give a good description of the dynamical behavior of wave packets and constitute a sound approach to revival phenomena by analyzing three model systems: the simple harmonic oscillator, the infinite square well, and the quantum bouncer. We prove the usefulness of entropic uncertainty relations as a tool for identifying fractional revivals by providing a comparison in different contexts with the usual Heisenberg uncertainty relation and with the common approach in terms of the autocorrelation function.

Elvira Romera; Francisco de los Santos

2014-09-19T23:59:59.000Z

49

Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has ...

Donald, Bruce Randall

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

Ahmed, Taahir

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

51

Methods for Composing Tradeoff Studies under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the power train. This level of knowledge reuse is in keeping with good systems engineering practice. However, existing procedures for generating tradeoff studies under uncertainty involve assumptions that preclude engineers from composing them in a...

Bily, Christopher

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

52

Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To make sound investment decisions, decision makers need accurate estimates of the uncertainties present in forecasts of reservoir performance. In this work I propose a method, the integrated mismatch method, that incorporates the misfit...

Zhang, Guohong

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

53

Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

54

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Abstract: A...

55

Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of Geologic Disposal Systems Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of...

56

Neutron activation analysis of the 30Si content of highly enriched 28Si: proof of concept and estimation of the achievable uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We investigated the use of neutron activation to estimate the 30Si mole fraction of the ultra-pure silicon material highly enriched in 28Si for the measurement of the Avogadro constant. Specifically, we developed a relative method based on Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis and using a natural-Si sample as a standard. To evaluate the achievable uncertainty, we irradiated a 6 g sample of a natural-Si material and modeled experimentally the signal that would be produced by a sample of the 28Si-enriched material of similar mass and subjected to the same measurement conditions. The extrapolation of the expected uncertainty from the experimental data indicates that a measurement of the 30Si mole fraction of the 28Si-enriched material might reach a 4% relative combined standard uncertainty.

D'Agostino, Giancarlo; Oddone, Massimo; Prata, Michele; Bergamaschi, Luigi; Giordani, Laura

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford.

DeMuth, S.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Franklin, A.L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1996-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

58

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.

Clavreul, Julie, E-mail: julc@env.dtu.dk [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark); Guyonnet, Dominique [BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orleans Cedex (France); Christensen, Thomas H. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

59

ISO/GUM UNCERTAINTIES AND CIAAW (UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT FOR RECOMMENDED ATOMIC WEIGHTS AND ISOTOPIC ABUNDANCES)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). The IUPAC Commission on Isotopic Abundance and Atomic Weight (CIAAW) began attaching uncertainty limits to their recommended values about forty years ago. CIAAW's method for determining and assigning uncertainties has evolved over time. We trace this evolution to their present method and their effort to incorporate the basic ISO/GUM procedures into evaluations of these uncertainties. We discuss some dilemma the CIAAW faces in their present method and whether it is consistent with the application of the ISO/GUM rules. We discuss the attempt to incorporate variations in measured isotope ratios, due to natural fractionation, into the ISO/GUM system. We make some observations about the inconsistent treatment in the incorporation of natural variations into recommended data and uncertainties. A recommendation for expressing atomic weight values using a tabulated range of values for various chemical elements is discussed.

HOLDEN,N.E.

2007-07-23T23:59:59.000Z

60

Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the pre-remedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in pre-design data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in pre-design characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland 1, Ashland 2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate pre-design contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District. (authors)

Rieman, C.R.; Spector, H.L. [U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District, Buffalo, NY (United States); Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L. [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Div., IL (United States)

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Uncertainty and error in computational simulations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The present paper addresses the question: ``What are the general classes of uncertainty and error sources in complex, computational simulations?`` This is the first step of a two step process to develop a general methodology for quantitatively estimating the global modeling and simulation uncertainty in computational modeling and simulation. The second step is to develop a general mathematical procedure for representing, combining and propagating all of the individual sources through the simulation. The authors develop a comprehensive view of the general phases of modeling and simulation. The phases proposed are: conceptual modeling of the physical system, mathematical modeling of the system, discretization of the mathematical model, computer programming of the discrete model, numerical solution of the model, and interpretation of the results. This new view is built upon combining phases recognized in the disciplines of operations research and numerical solution methods for partial differential equations. The characteristics and activities of each of these phases is discussed in general, but examples are given for the fields of computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer. They argue that a clear distinction should be made between uncertainty and error that can arise in each of these phases. The present definitions for uncertainty and error are inadequate and. therefore, they propose comprehensive definitions for these terms. Specific classes of uncertainty and error sources are then defined that can occur in each phase of modeling and simulation. The numerical sources of error considered apply regardless of whether the discretization procedure is based on finite elements, finite volumes, or finite differences. To better explain the broad types of sources of uncertainty and error, and the utility of their categorization, they discuss a coupled-physics example simulation.

Oberkampf, W.L.; Diegert, K.V.; Alvin, K.F.; Rutherford, B.M.

1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Reservoir Uncertainty Assessment: The Conditional Finite-Domain Approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An important aim of modern geostatistical modeling is to quantify uncertainty in geological systems. Geostatistical modeling requires many input parameters. The input univariate distribution or histogram is perhaps the most important. A new method for assessing uncertainty in the histogram, particularly uncertainty in the mean, is presented. This method, referred to as the conditional finite-domain (CFD) approach, accounts for the size of the domain and the local conditioning data. It is a stochastic approach based on a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The CFD approach is shown to be convergent, design independent, and parameterization invariant. The performance of the CFD approach is illustrated in a case study focusing on the impact of the number of data and the range of correlation on the limiting uncertainty in the parameters. The spatial bootstrap method and CFD approach are compared. As the number of data increases, uncertainty in the sample mean decreases in both the spatial bootstrap and the CFD. Contrary to spatial bootstrap, uncertainty in the sample mean in the CFD approach decreases as the range of correlation increases. This is a direct result of the conditioning data being more correlated to unsampled locations in the finite domain. The sensitivity of the limiting uncertainty relative to the variogram and the variable limits are also discussed.

Babak, Olena, E-mail: obabak@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V. [University of Alberta, Centre for Computational Geostatistics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada)], E-mail: cdeutsch@ualberta.ca

2009-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

64

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation

Boyer, Edmond

65

Dynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the required treatment. There are mainly two types of maintenance activities: the preventive maintenance, whoseDynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties Fran¸cois Marmier, Christophe in maintenance services field where the different practical knowledges or skills are their working tools. We

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

66

Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty Osman Y. ¨Ozaltin Department of Industrial of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA 02125-3393, USA, michael.johnson@umb.edu Andrew J. Schaefer Department. In response, we propose a two-echelon network of senior centers. We for- mulate a two-stage stochastic

Schaefer, Andrew

67

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

68

Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that uncertainty can be assessed more reliably through look-backs and calibration, i.e., comparing actual results to probabilistic predictions over time. While many recognize the importance of look-backs, calibration is seldom practiced in industry. I believe a...

Fondren, Mark Edward

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

69

Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(joint work with Bruno Mendes) Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics University of California and analysis of variance tools provide sensitivity analysis insight. -- Model uncertainty audit shows, as an energy source, has been employed in the United States and Europe for more than 50 years, and yet

Draper, David

70

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol, UK Michel1.tex. 1 Introduction This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical

71

Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Logic - Applications Many everyday applications use Fuzzy Logic control Microwaves ABS brakes Camera Huber 2011 6 Fuzzy Inference (Control) Fuzzy Logic uses logic inference rules and defuzzification© Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty Fuzzy Logic #12;© Manfred Huber 2011 2 Fuzzy

Huber, Manfred

72

Stochastic Reduced Basis Methods for Uncertainty Quantification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Turbine Blades In general, stochastic analysis (using SRBM) of any physical system involves two main steps the variability in the performance of a turbine blade in the presence of uncertainty. These blades operate variability in material properties and boundary condi- tions. Given a numerical solution of the set of SPDEs

Sbester, Andrs

73

UAV mission planning under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

With the continued development of high endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) that are capable of performing autonomous fiunctions across the spectrum of military operations, ...

Sakamoto, Philemon

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

Johnson, Jay Dean (ProStat, Mesa, AZ); Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Challenges in the face of uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Opinions of the Interim Director of the Global Environment Program of Cornell University are presented. The focus is on obstacles to the implementation by policymakers of actions needed to address climate change. A major obstacle preventing action is stated to be the uncertainties involved in climate predictions. It is proposed that rapid, comprehensive action is required to meet the challenges posed by climate predictions, regardless of the inherent uncertainties. Aspects of future climate which are relatively certain are discussed, including continued greenhouse effects for the next several decades, a greater warming effect at higher altitudes, more warming in the winter, and linkage of all other aspects of climate to temperature changes. Aspects of climatic change which pose particular problems regarding predictability are also discussed.

Oglesby, R.T. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

76

Carbon capture retrofits and the cost of regulatory uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm's ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.

Reinelt, P.S.; Keith, D.W. [SUNY College of Fredonia, Fredonia, NY (United States). Dept. of Economics

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Entropic uncertainties for joint quantum measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We investigate the uncertainty associated with a joint quantum measurement of two spin components of a spin-(1/2) particle and quantify this in terms of entropy. We consider two entropic quantities, the joint entropy and the sum of the marginal entropies, and obtain lower bounds for each of these quantities. For the case of joint measurements where we measure each spin observable equally well, these lower bounds are tight.

Brougham, Thomas [Department of Physics, FJFI, CVUT, Brehova 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom); Andersson, Erika [SUPA, Department of Physics, School of EPS, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4As (United Kingdom); Barnett, Stephen M. [SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

78

History matching and uncertainty quantificiation using sampling method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

approach to uncertainty quantification for the nonlinear inverse problems. First, we propose a two-stage MCMC approach using sensitivities for quantifying uncertainty in history matching geological models. In the first stage, we compute the acceptance...

Ma, Xianlin

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

79

A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

Monier, Erwan

80

Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

Somanath, Amith

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced in energy consumption due to actual weather and building operational practices, using a simulation

82

Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

83

Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Uncertainty Analysis (3 credits): Nuclear Engineering 602 Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers of Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison Personal Information: Name: __________________________ Department of Engineering Physics, College of Engineering, UW-Madison, 147 Engineering Research Building, 1500 Engineering

Van Veen, Barry D.

84

Informatively optimal levels of confidence for mesurement uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oct 13, 2011 ... netvision.net.il) ... "Informatively optimal combining, expanding, and establishing traceability in evaluating measurement uncertainties".

David Kisets

2011-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

85

Calculation defines uncertainty of unaccounted-for gas  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for defining the uncertainty of the unaccounted-for gas figure and for identifying and isolating causes of significant changes in this figure will lead to a more accurate accounting of volumes in high-pressure natural-gas transmission systems. An error analysis can be employed to ascertain the uncertainty on the unaccounted-for gas figure for such systems along with a simple method for recognizing the magnitude and time of significant changes in this figure. In addition, a better understanding of factors affecting meter accuracy will lead to more precise gas measurements.

Norman, R.; Jepson, P.

1987-04-06T23:59:59.000Z

86

Trio: A System for Data, Uncertainty, and Lineage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

or resolve uncertainty #12;13 Our Goal Develop a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all first-class interrelated concepts With all the "usual" DBMS a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all

Bejerano, Gill

87

Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov , Kwansik Kim , Pierre F. J uncertainty information in direct volume rendering. The goal is to produce vol- ume rendered images the uncertainty information directly into the volume rendering equation. The second method involves post

Robinson, Allan R.

88

INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Reclamation are using risk assessment as a decision support tool. This paper summarizes an approach to incorporating input uncertainties into risk analysis model. Input uncertainties are captured by using for uncertainty analysis in dam safety risk assessment, and demonstrates some useful formats for presenting

Chauhan, Sanjay S.

89

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deterministic forward commodity price which, in most cases, historical data demonstrates to be quite volatileA REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang and operating cash flow. This industry is usually considered high risk because of historically volatile

Duffy, Ken

91

Conservation law for Uncertainty relations and quantum correlations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty principle, a fundamental principle in quantum physics, has been studied intensively via various uncertainty inequalities. Here we derive an uncertainty equality in terms of linear entropy, and show that the sum of uncertainty in complementary local bases is equal to a fixed quantity. We also introduce a measure of correlation in a bipartite state, and show that the sum of correlations revealed in a full set of complementary bases is equal to the total correlation in the bipartite state. The surprising simple equality relations we obtain imply that the study on uncertainty principle and correlations can rely on the use of linear entropy, a simple quantity that is very convenient for calculation.

Zhihao Ma; Shengjun Wu; Zhihua Chen

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems.

Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

1999-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

97

Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

98

Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

EPR Steering Inequalities from Entropic Uncertainty Relations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We use entropic uncertainty relations to formulate inequalities that witness Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering correlations in diverse quantum systems. We then use these inequalities to formulate symmetric EPR-steering inequalities using the mutual information. We explore the differing natures of the correlations captured by one-way and symmetric steering inequalities, and examine the possibility of exclusive one-way steerability in two-qubit states. Furthermore, we show that steering inequalities can be extended to generalized positive operator valued measures (POVMs), and we also derive hybrid-steering inequalities between alternate degrees of freedom.

James Schneeloch; Curtis J. Broadbent; Stephen P. Walborn; Eric G. Cavalcanti; John C. Howell

2013-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

100

Uncertainties in our understanding of energy conservation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

There is wide and growing agreement on the potential benefits of energy-conservation measures. However, there is considerable uncertainty over the best means to obtain these benefits. Decision makers lack sufficient information to decide on the proper roles for private enterprise and for governments. The best mix of government activities is not known. Unfortunately, the data currently available are not adequate for dealing with these important issues. This paper discusses existing and emerging data sources that deal with these questions that can help improve our understanding of energy use and conservation. Development of comprehensive and accurate data bases is crucial to the improvement and intelligent application of energy-use models.

Hirst, E.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Uncertainty evaluation in transition temperature measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The pressure vessel surveillance program is mainly based on the transition temperature change assessment, a change which is induced by neutron irradiation. Uncertainties in Charpy test measurements are well known; however, the authors are less familiar with uncertainties due to general procedures governing experiments, which can be significant and therefore must be taken into account. In fact, procedures specify neither the number of specimens needed to obtain a transition curve, nor the choice of test temperatures, nor the fitting method for the transition curve. A study has been conducted to determine the influence of the experimental procedure on the accuracy of transition temperature determination, and the initial results are presented in this paper. Two EDF laboratories performed Charpy tests on the surveillance program reference metal, using 8, 16, 24, 32 and 64 specimens to evaluate how the number of specimens affects the transition temperature. The influence of the scatter of mechanical properties has also been studied at two levels of irradiation. The authors have evaluated the effect of different sampling strategies and investigated a new fitting method, which is based on a simultaneous fitting of all curves with common constraints on parameters.

Brillaud, C. [Electricite de France, Avoine (France); Augendre, H. [Electricite de France, Clamart (France); Bethmont, M. [Electricite de France, Ecuelles (France)

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

102

IPA Phase 2 sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The NRC`s Phase 2 Iterative Performance Assessment (IPA) used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate uncertainty for up to 297 independent variables and nine scenarios through computer models representing the performance of the Yucca Mountain repository. The NRC staff explored the use of a number of parametric and non-parametric tests and graphical methods to display the probabilistic results. Parametric tests included regression and differential analysis. Non-parametric tests included the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Sign test. Graphical methods included the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF), hair diagram, scatter plots, histograms and box plots. Multiple linear regression of raw, ranked, standardized and other transformed variables determined the gross sensitivity over the parameter space. CCDF`s were also generated from subsets of the 400 vector sets formed by screening the vectors according to values of derived variables related to the behavior of the engineered and natural systems. While no single statistical or graphical technique proved to be useful in all cases, diverse methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the same important input parameters.

Colten-Bradley, V.; Codell, R.; Byrne, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

103

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

104

Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.

Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario

106

Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Uncertainty Analysis in Upscaling Well Log data By Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

developments with the advent of super high-speed and mass-storage computers. In spite of these improvements, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in data measurements, processing, interpreta- tion, etc. due to the limitation of geological... scale, and seismic data indicate from meter to decimeter scale. In practice, damaged samples and washout in boring tool could be causes of inaccurate data. Uncertainty in geophysics can be classified according to both geologic uncertainty and measurement...

Hwang, Kyubum

2010-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

108

Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.

Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Diffusion of irreversible energy technologies under uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a model of technology diffusion is consistent with characteristics of participants in most energy markets. Whereas the models used most widely for empirical research are based on the assumption that the extended delays in adoption of cost-saving innovations are the result of either lack of knowledge about the new processes or heterogeneity across potential adopters, the model presented in this paper is based on the strategic behavior by firms. The strategic interdependence of the firms` decisions is rooted in spillover effects associated with an inability to exclude others from the learning-by-doing acquired when a firm implements a new technology. The model makes extensive use of recent developments in investment theory as it relates irreversible investments under uncertainty.

Cacallo, J.D.; Sutherland, R.J.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Generalized uncertainty principle and black hole thermodynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the Schwarzschild and Reissner-Nordstr\\"{o}m black hole thermodynamics using the simplest form of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) proposed in the literature. The expressions for the mass-temperature relation, heat capacity and entropy are obtained in both cases from which the critical and remnant masses are computed. Our results are exact and reveal that these masses are identical and larger than the so called singular mass for which the thermodynamics quantities become ill-defined. The expression for the entropy reveals the well known area theorem in terms of the horizon area in both cases upto leading order corrections from GUP. The area theorem written in terms of a new variable which can be interpreted as the reduced horizon area arises only when the computation is carried out to the next higher order correction from GUP.

Sunandan Gangopadhyay; Abhijit Dutta; Anirban Saha

2014-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

111

Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

The Top Mass: Interpretation and Theoretical Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Currently the most precise LHC measurements of the top quark mass are determinations of the top quark mass parameter of Monte-Carlo (MC) event generators reaching uncertainties of well below $1$ GeV. However, there is an additional theoretical problem when using the MC top mass $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ as an input for theoretical predictions, because a rigorous relation of $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ to a renormalized field theory mass is, at the very strict level, absent. In this talk I show how - nevertheless - some concrete statements on $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ can be deduced assuming that the MC generator behaves like a rigorous first principles QCD calculator for the observables that are used for the analyses. I give simple conceptual arguments showing that in this context $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ can be interpreted like the mass of a heavy-light top meson, and that there is a conversion relation to field theory top quark masses that requires a non-perturbative input. The situation is in analogy to B physics where a similar relation exists between experimental B meson masses and field theory bottom masses. The relation gives a prescription how to use $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ as an input for theoretical predictions in perturbative QCD. The outcome is that at this time an additional uncertainty of about $1$ GeV has to be accounted for. I discuss limitations of the arguments I give and possible ways to test them, or even to improve the current situation.

Andr H. Hoang

2014-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

113

Adaptive Management of Water Resources in Light of Future Climate Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Water resources managers have always had to make operational decisions in spite of a relatively high degree of uncertainty caused by changing climate, hydrologic, population, land use, socioeconomic, and other conditions. However, based on current climate change predictions and observations of current impacts of climate change or natural variability, the degree of uncertainty appears to be increasing drastically. By better understanding these uncertainties and their policy implications and by managing those uncertainties adaptively, water resources managers and policy makers can reduce the risk of not meeting their management goals and reduce the potential physical, biological and socioeconomic impacts associated with climate change/variation.

Gerald Sehlke; Mark Colosimo

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Uncertainties of coherent states for a generalized supersymmetric annihilation operator  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study presents supersymmetric coherent states that are eigenstates of a general four-parameter family of annihilation operators. The elements of this family are defined as operators in Fock space that transform a subspace of a definite number of particles into a subspace with one particle removed. The emphasis is on classifying parameter space in various regions according to the uncertainty bounds of the corresponding coherent states. Specifically, the uncertainty in position-momentum is analyzed, with specific focus on characterizing regions of minimum uncertainty states, regions where the uncertainties are bounded from above, and where they grow unbound.

Kornbluth, Mordechai; Zypman, Fredy [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)] [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)

2013-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

115

Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties:about other firms investment cost. Third, if the regulatorIn addition, while making investment costs heterogeneous

Lemoine, Derek Mark

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Nonmarket Valuation under Preference Uncertainty: Econometric Models and Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

3 The EconometricUNCERTAINTY: ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND ESTIMATION bY W. MichaelSection 3 introduces ihe econometric model. Section 4

Hanemann, W. Michael; Kristrom, Bengt; Li, Chuan-Zhong

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

tax on microgrid combined heat and power adoption. JournalDG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heatUncertainty Keywords: Combined heat and power applications,

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy...

Pedro Crespo Del Granado

2015-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

119

A surrogate-based uncertainty quantification with quantifiable errors  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Surrogate models are often employed to reduce the computational cost required to complete uncertainty quantification, where one is interested in propagating input parameters uncertainties throughout a complex engineering model to estimate responses uncertainties. An improved surrogate construction approach is introduced here which places a premium on reducing the associated computational cost. Unlike existing methods where the surrogate is constructed first, then employed to propagate uncertainties, the new approach combines both sensitivity and uncertainty information to render further reduction in the computational cost. Mathematically, the reduction is described by a range finding algorithm that identifies a subspace in the parameters space, whereby parameters uncertainties orthogonal to the subspace contribute negligible amount to the propagated uncertainties. Moreover, the error resulting from the reduction can be upper-bounded. The new approach is demonstrated using a realistic nuclear assembly model and compared to existing methods in terms of computational cost and accuracy of uncertainties. Although we believe the algorithm is general, it will be applied here for linear-based surrogates and Gaussian parameters uncertainties. The generalization to nonlinear models will be detailed in a separate article. (authors)

Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Uncertainty Quantification for Nano-Scale Integrated Circuits...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty Quantification for Nano-Scale Integrated Circuits and MEMS Design Event Sponsor: Mathematics and Computing Science Seminar Start Date: Jan 20 2015 - 10:30am Building...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

2011-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

122

The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)

Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

ON THE ESTIMATION OF RANDOM UNCERTAINTIES OF STAR FORMATION HISTORIES  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The standard technique for measurement of random uncertainties of star formation histories (SFHs) is the bootstrap Monte Carlo, in which the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) is repeatedly resampled. The variation in SFHs measured from the resampled CMDs is assumed to represent the random uncertainty in the SFH measured from the original data. However, this technique systematically and significantly underestimates the uncertainties for times in which the measured star formation rate is low or zero, leading to overly (and incorrectly) high confidence in that measurement. This study proposes an alternative technique, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which samples the probability distribution of the parameters used in the original solution to directly estimate confidence intervals. While the most commonly used MCMC algorithms are incapable of adequately sampling a probability distribution that can involve thousands of highly correlated dimensions, the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm is shown to be extremely effective and efficient for this particular task. Several implementation details, such as the handling of implicit priors created by parameterization of the SFH, are discussed in detail.

Dolphin, Andrew E., E-mail: adolphin@raytheon.com [Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ, 85734 (United States)

2013-09-20T23:59:59.000Z

127

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [1] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [2]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models George B. Arhonditsis,1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models George B. Arhonditsis,1 Gurbir of eutrophication processes are commonly used to aid scientific understanding and to guide management decisions of uncertainty in the high-dimensional parameter spaces of mechanistic eutrophication models. We examine

Arhonditsis, George B.

129

Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta

2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

130

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

131

Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Reservoir Simulation Solutions, Inc. SPE 102492 #12;2 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Outline Reservoir Simulation Uncertainty, Using Surrogate Reservoir Model #12;3 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Sources

Mohaghegh, Shahab

132

Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations Vijay Gupta1 of uncertainty and complex fiscal rules in the development planning of offshore oil and gas fields which involve, Offshore Oil and Gas, Multistage Stochastic, Endogenous, Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) 1

Grossmann, Ignacio E.

133

RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Uncertainty-aware visualization and proximity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-aware, geospatial-AR system for real time visualization and proximity analysis. Uncertainties are modeled excavation: a geospatial augmented reality approach Xing Su1 , Sanat Talmaki2 , Hubo Cai3* and Vineet R Kamat an uncertainty-aware, geospatial augmented reality (AR) to visualize and monitor the proximity between invisible

Kamat, Vineet R.

134

Production Optimization; System Identification and Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production Optimization; System Identification and Uncertainty Estimation Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav Slupphaug Tor Arne Johansen 1 Abstract Real-time optimization of oil and gas production requires a production model, which must be fitted to data for accuracy. A certain amount of uncertainty must typically

Johansen, Tor Arne

135

Evolution of Schrodinger Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Mechanics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the present article, we discuss one of the basic relations of Quantum Mechanics - the Uncertainty Relation (UR). In 1930, few years after Heisenberg, Erwin Schrodinger generalized the famous Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Mechanics, making it more precise than the original. The present study discusses recent generalizations of Schrodinger's work and explains why his paper remains almost forgotten in the last century.

A Angelow

2008-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

136

Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of BRANDON JULIO  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of Capital BRANDON JULIO London Business School YOUNGSUK YOOK Sungkyunkwan University September 2011 ABSTRACT We find that policy uncertainty is an important determinant of fluctuations in cross- border flows of capital. Spefically, we find that fluctuations in policy

University of Technology, Sydney

137

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

Hall, Sharon J.

138

Ris-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risø-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments The ASSURANCE project Final summary report Kurt risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre

139

Clustering and Uncertainty in Perfect Chaos Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The goal of this investigation was to derive strictly new properties of chaotic systems and their mutual relations. The generalized Fokker-Planck equation with a non stationary diffusion has been derived and used for chaos analysis. An anomalous transport turned out to be natural property of this equation. A nonlinear dispersion of the considered motion allowed to find a principal consequence: a chaotic system with uniform dynamic properties tends to unstable clustering. Small fluctuations of particles density increase by time and form attractors and stochastic islands even if the initial transport properties have uniform distribution. It was shown that an instability of phase trajectories leads to the nonlinear dispersion law and consequently to a space instability. A fixed boundary system was considered, using a standard Fokker-Planck equation. We have derived that such a type of dynamic systems has a discrete diffusive and energy spectra. It was shown that phase space diffusion is the only parameter that defines a dynamic accuracy in this case. The uncertainty relations have been obtained for conjugate phase space variables with account of transport properties. Given results can be used in the area of chaotic systems modelling and turbulence investigation.

Sergey A. Kamenshchikov

2014-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

140

ON THE ESTIMATION OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES OF STAR FORMATION HISTORIES  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In most star formation history (SFH) measurements, the reported uncertainties are those due to effects whose sizes can be readily measured: Poisson noise, adopted distance and extinction, and binning choices in the solution itself. However, the largest source of error, systematics in the adopted isochrones, is usually ignored and very rarely explicitly incorporated into the uncertainties. I propose a process by which estimates of the uncertainties due to evolutionary models can be incorporated into the SFH uncertainties. This process relies on application of shifts in temperature and luminosity, the sizes of which must be calibrated for the data being analyzed. While there are inherent limitations, the ability to estimate the effect of systematic errors and include them in the overall uncertainty is significant. The effects of this are most notable in the case of shallow photometry, with which SFH measurements rely on evolved stars.

Dolphin, Andrew E., E-mail: adolphin@raytheon.com [Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ 85734 (United States)

2012-05-20T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies reduction and resilience, denying, ignoring and postponing. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vnge 15, 2450 Kbenhavn SV (Denmark); Krnv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vnge 15, 2450 Kbenhavn SV (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vnge 15, 2450 Kbenhavn SV (Denmark)

2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

142

Hadronic uncertainties in the elastic scattering of supersymmetric dark matter  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We review the uncertainties in the spin-independent and spin-dependent elastic scattering cross sections of supersymmetric dark matter particles on protons and neutrons. We propagate the uncertainties in quark masses and hadronic matrix elements that are related to the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term and the spin content of the nucleon. By far the largest single uncertainty is that in spin-independent scattering induced by our ignorance of the matrix elements linked to the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term, which affects the ratio of cross sections on proton and neutron targets as well as their absolute values. This uncertainty is already impacting the interpretations of experimental searches for cold dark matter. We plead for an experimental campaign to determine better the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term. Uncertainties in the spin content of the proton affect significantly, but less strongly, the calculation of rates used in indirect searches.

Ellis, John [TH Division, Physics Department, CERN, 1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A.; Savage, Christopher [William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 (United States)

2008-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

143

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INLs Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.

Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INL's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.

Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties.

Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond Virginia 23298 (United States)

2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

146

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a high source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of zero results).

Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Joint measurability, steering and entropic uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The notion of incompatibility of measurements in quantum theory is in stark contrast with the corresponding classical perspective, where all physical observables are jointly measurable. It is of interest to examine if the results of two or more measurements in the quantum scenario can be perceived from a classical point of view or they still exhibit non-classical features. Clearly, commuting observables can be measured jointly using projective measurements and their statistical outcomes can be discerned classically. However, such simple minded association of compatibility of measurements with commutativity turns out to be limited in an extended framework, where the usual notion of sharp projective valued measurements of self adjoint observables gets broadened to include unsharp measurements of generalized observables constituting positive operator valued measures (POVM). There is a surge of research activity recently towards gaining new physical insights on the emergence of classical behavior via joint measurability of unsharp observables. Here, we explore the entropic uncertainty relation for a pair of discrete observables (of Alice's system) when an entangled quantum memory of Bob is restricted to record outcomes of jointly measurable POVMs only. Within the joint measurability regime, the sum of entropies associated with Alice's measurement outcomes - conditioned by the results registered at Bob's end - are constrained to obey an entropic steering inequality. In this case, Bob's non-steerability reflects itself as his inability in predicting the outcomes of Alice's pair of non-commuting observables with better precision, even when they share an entangled state. As a further consequence, the quantum advantage envisaged for the construction of security proofs in key distribution is lost, when Bob's measurements are restricted to the joint measurability regime.

H. S. Karthik; A. R. Usha Devi; A. K. Rajagopal

2014-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

149

The Treatment of ISI Uncertainty in xLPR  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in cooperation with the nuclear industry is constructing an improved probabilistic fracture model for 'extremely Low Probability of Rupture' in the piping of a nuclear power plant called xLPR. This paper focuses on the xLPR model's treatment of uncertainty for in-service inspection. In the xLPR model, uncertainty is classified as either aleatory or epistemic, and both types of uncertainty are described with probability distributions. Earlier PFM models included aleatory, but ignored epistemic, uncertainty, or attempted to deal with epistemic uncertainty by use of conservative bounds. Thus, inclusion of both types of uncertainty in xLPR should produce more realistic results than the earlier models. This work shows that by including epistemic uncertainty in the xLPR ISI module, there can be a significant effect on rupture probability; however, this depends upon the specific scenarios being studied. Some simple scenarios are presented to illustrate those where there is no effect and those having a significant effect on the probability of rupture.

Heasler, Patrick G.; Sanborn, Scott E.; Doctor, Steven R.; Anderson, Michael T.

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

A Multi-Model Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Model Calibration in CFD Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proper quantification and propagation of uncertainties in computational simulations are of critical importance. This issue is especially challenging for CFD applications. A particular obstacle for uncertainty quantifications in CFD problems is the large model discrepancies associated with the CFD models used for uncertainty propagation. Neglecting or improperly representing the model discrepancies leads to inaccurate and distorted uncertainty distribution for the Quantities of Interest. High-fidelity models, being accurate yet expensive, can accommodate only a small ensemble of simulations and thus lead to large interpolation errors and/or sampling errors; low-fidelity models can propagate a large ensemble, but can introduce large modeling errors. In this work, we propose a multi-model strategy to account for the influences of model discrepancies in uncertainty propagation and to reduce their impact on the predictions. Specifically, we take advantage of CFD models of multiple fidelities to estimate the model ...

Wang, Jian-xun; Xiao, Heng

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.

BABA,T.; ISHIGURO,K.; ISHIHARA,Y.; SAWADA,A.; UMEKI,H.; WAKASUGI,K.; WEBB,ERIK K.

1999-08-30T23:59:59.000Z

152

Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

Wells, C.

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Verification and Uncertainty Reduction of Amchitka Underground Nuclear Testing Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The modeling of Amchitka underground nuclear tests conducted in 2002 is verified and uncertainty in model input parameters, as well as predictions, has been reduced using newly collected data obtained by the summer 2004 field expedition of CRESP. Newly collected data that pertain to the groundwater model include magnetotelluric (MT) surveys conducted on the island to determine the subsurface salinity and porosity structure of the subsurface, and bathymetric surveys to determine the bathymetric maps of the areas offshore from the Long Shot and Cannikin Sites. Analysis and interpretation of the MT data yielded information on the location of the transition zone, and porosity profiles showing porosity values decaying with depth. These new data sets are used to verify the original model in terms of model parameters, model structure, and model output verification. In addition, by using the new data along with the existing data (chemistry and head data), the uncertainty in model input and output is decreased by conditioning on all the available data. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is adapted for developing new input parameter distributions conditioned on prior knowledge and new data. The MCMC approach is a form of Bayesian conditioning that is constructed in such a way that it produces samples of the model parameters that eventually converge to a stationary posterior distribution. The Bayesian MCMC approach enhances probabilistic assessment. Instead of simply propagating uncertainty forward from input parameters into model predictions (i.e., traditional Monte Carlo approach), MCMC propagates uncertainty backward from data onto parameters, and then forward from parameters into predictions. Comparisons between new data and the original model, and conditioning on all available data using MCMC method, yield the following results and conclusions: (1) Model structure is verified at Long Shot and Cannikin where the high-resolution bathymetric data collected by CRESP yield profiles matching those used to construct the Long Shot and Cannikin model cross sections in 2002. (2) Distributions of model input parameters (recharge, conductivity, and recharge-conductivity ratio) used in 2002 for the three sites are verified where the new data indicate distributions with narrower ranges (smaller uncertainty) but within the range employed in the 2002 model. (3) As a conservative approach, distribution of fracture porosity used in 2002 was deliberately skewed toward lower values. New CRESP data indicate that the selected porosity range was overly conservative. In addition, the range of porosity values obtained from the analysis of the MT data is found to generally be about three orders of magnitude lower than range of values used in the 2002 model, though the values themselves are much larger from the MT data. (4) Distributions of the flow model output (head distribution, salinity distribution, groundwater fluxes) resulting from the 2002 model for the three sites are verified where the new model output after conditioning on the data lie within the range of the 2002 model output. (5) Cannikin model output at location of well UAe-1 is not fully verified where the new model results for small salinity values are not fully enclosed by the uncertainty bounds of the original model output. (6) With the new porosities developed from the analysis of MT data, radionuclides require thousands of years to reach the seafloor. No breakthrough resulted for any of the three sites within the 2000 year model timeframe, despite ignoring all retardation mechanisms (sorption, radionuclide trapping in glass, matrix diffusion, and radioactive decay). (7) The no-breakthrough results verify the original model in the sense that this result lies within the uncertainty bounds of the 2002 model expressed as + 2 {sigma}{sub Q} and - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}. The lower bound, - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}, in the 2002 model gave negative values implying that the bound is essentially zero. The current results of no-breakthrough match this lower bound. (8) Si

Ahmed Hassan; Jenny Chapman

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.

The NNPDF Collaboration; Richard D. Ball; Luigi Del Debbio; Stefano Forte; Alberto Guffanti; Jose I. Latorre; Juan Rojo; Maria Ubiali

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Evaluation of expanded uncertainties in luminous intensity and illuminance calibrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Detector-based calibrating methods and expressions for calculation of photometric uncertainties related to uncertainties in the calibrations of luminous intensity of a light source, illuminance responsivity of a photometer head, and calibration factors of an illuminance meter are discussed. These methods permit luminous intensity calibrations of incandescent light sources, luminous responsivity calibrations of photometer heads, and calibration factors of illuminance meters to be carried out with relative expanded uncertainties (with a level of confidence of 95.45%) of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6%, respectively.

Sametoglu, Ferhat

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

Accardi, Alberto [Hampton U., JLAB

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity

Ross, Shane

159

Control of systems subject to uncertainty and constraints  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

do not alter small signal performance. Importantly, these two remedial control methodologies must incorporate model uncertainty into their design to be considered reliable in practice. In this dissertation, shared principles of design...

Villota Cerna, Elizabeth Roxana

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

160

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of2007) and the 2007 Real Options Conference in Berkeley, CA,distributed generation, real options JEL Codes: D81, Q40

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that incorporating dynamic data in a reservoir model will result in lower estimates of uncertainty than considering only static data. However, incorporation of dynamic data does not guarantee that the forecasted ranges will encompass the true value. Reliability...

Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

162

An uncertainty principle, Wegner estimates and localization near fluctuation boundaries  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We prove a simple uncertainty principle and show that it can be applied to prove Wegner estimates near fluctuation boundaries. This gives new classes of models for which localization at low energies can be proven.

Anne Boutet de Monvel; Daniel Lenz; Peter Stollmann

2009-05-18T23:59:59.000Z

163

Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...

Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Determination of uncertainty in parameters extracted from single spectroscopic measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The ability to quantify uncertainty in information extracted from spectroscopic measurements is important in numerous fields. The traditional approach of repetitive measurements may be impractical or impossible in some ...

Bechtel, Kate L.

165

An efficient Bayesian approach to history matching and uncertainty assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Conditioning reservoir models to production data and assessment of uncertainty can be done by Bayesian theorem. This inverse problem can be computationally intensive, generally requiring orders of magnitude more computation time compared...

Yuan, Chengwu

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

166

Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

Webster, Mort D.

167

Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

The Decision Rule Approach to Optimisation under Uncertainty ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robust Optimisation, Decision Rules, Optimisation under Uncertainty. ... in turn lead to the underperformance or complete breakdown of production processes. Yet,. 1 ...... 5: Energy Systems Engineering, M. Georgiadis, E. Kikkinides, and E.

2011-12-21T23:59:59.000Z

169

Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...

Reinert, Joshua M

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration -Paula Reimer  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

naked body'. Robert Boyle 1663 Includes ­ Thermoluminescence (TL), Optically stimulated luminescenceSUPRA-net: Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration - Paula Tephrochronology ­ David Lowe U series dating ­ David Richards* Combining multiple dating techniques ­ Andrew

Sengun, Mehmet Haluk

171

Essays on Voluntary Contribution with Private Information and Threshold Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation concerns individual voluntary contributions in the subscription game with three important model considerations: private information on public good valuations, threshold uncertainty and the timing of the contribution simultaneous...

Peng, Hui-Chun

2014-07-08T23:59:59.000Z

172

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This is a collaborative proposal that aims at developing new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty. The approach is based on combining methods of computational singular perturbation (CSP) and probabilistic uncertainty quantification. In deterministic settings, CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduced-dimensionality slow manifolds on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty raises fundamentally new issues, particularly concerning its impact on the topology of slow manifolds, and means to represent and quantify associated variability. To address these challenges, this project uses polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models, and to analyze them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Specific objectives include (1) developing effective algorithms that can be used to illuminate fundamental and unexplored connections among model reduction, multiscale behavior, and uncertainty, and (2) demonstrating the performance of these algorithms through applications to model problems.

Knio, Omar M

2014-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

173

Some methods of estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the paper four methods for estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction are discussed: total differential method, extreme values method, Gauss statistical method, and Monte Carlo simulation method. The methods are described and the program solutions are given.

Milan Batista

2011-07-20T23:59:59.000Z

174

Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...

Webster, Mort David.

175

Quantum Groups, Gravity, and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We investigate the relationship between the generalized uncertainty principle in quantum gravity and the quantum deformation of the Poincar\\'e algebra. We find that a deformed Newton-Wigner position operator and the generators of spatial translations and rotations of the deformed Poincar\\'e algebra obey a deformed Heisenberg algebra from which the generalized uncertainty principle follows. The result indicates that in the $\\kappa$-deformed Poincar\\'e algebra a minimal observable length emerges naturally.

Michele Maggiore

1993-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

176

Environmental uncertainty and social value orientation in resource dilemmas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

research has shown that both environmental uncertainty and social value orientation (cooperators vs. noncooperators) will affect harvest sizes from a common resource pool. However, these two variables have not been simultaneously explored.... In the present experiment, 172 subjects harvested units from a common resource pool over 20 twenty trials. It was predicted that noncooperators would harvest more than cooperators (Hypothesis 1), an interaction between social value orientation and uncertainty...

Roch, Sylvia Gabriele

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

An efficient method for treating uncertainties in structural dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN EFFICIENT METHOD FOR TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS A Thesis by BING WANG Submitted to the Oflice of Graduate Studies of Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE...) Alan . Pa zolo (Member) ames . . Yao (Head of D artment) December 1992 ABSTRACT An Efficient Method for Treating Uncertainties in Structural Dynamics. (December 1992) Bing Wang, B. S. , Tsinghua University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr...

Wang, Bing

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

System architecture decisions under uncertainty : a case study on automotive battery system design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Flexibility analysis using the Real Options framework is typically utilized on high-level architectural decisions. Using Real Options, a company may develop strategies to mitigate downside risk for future uncertainties ...

Renzi, Matthew Joseph

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

An algorithm for U-Pb isotope dilution data reduction and uncertainty propagation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

High-precision U-Pb geochronology by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry is integral to a variety of Earth science disciplines, but its ultimate resolving power is quantified by the uncertainties of ...

McLean, Noah Morgan

180

activation cross-section uncertainties: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Quantifying uncertainties in the high energy neutrino cross-section HEP - Phenomenology (arXiv) Summary: We compare predictions for...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project addresses three important gaps in existing evaluated nuclear data libraries that represent a significant hindrance against highly advanced modeling and simulation capabilities for the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI). This project will: Develop advanced theoretical tools to compute prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray characteristics well beyond average spectra and multiplicity, and produce new evaluated files of U and Pu isotopes, along with some minor actinides; Perform state-of-the-art fission cross-section modeling and calculations using global and microscopic model input parameters, leading to truly predictive fission cross-sections capabilities. Consistent calculations for a suite of Pu isotopes will be performed; Implement innovative data assimilation tools, which will reflect the nuclear data evaluation process much more accurately, and lead to a new generation of uncertainty quantification files. New covariance matrices will be obtained for Pu isotopes and compared to existing ones. The deployment of a fleet of safe and efficient advanced reactors that minimize radiotoxic waste and are proliferation-resistant is a clear and ambitious goal of AFCI. While in the past the design, construction and operation of a reactor were supported through empirical trials, this new phase in nuclear energy production is expected to rely heavily on advanced modeling and simulation capabilities. To be truly successful, a program for advanced simulations of innovative reactors will have to develop advanced multi-physics capabilities, to be run on massively parallel super- computers, and to incorporate adequate and precise underlying physics. And all these areas have to be developed simultaneously to achieve those ambitious goals. Of particular interest are reliable fission cross-section uncertainty estimates (including important correlations) and evaluations of prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray spectra and uncertainties.

Danon, Yaron; Nazarewicz, Witold; Talou, Patrick

2013-02-18T23:59:59.000Z

182

MONTE-CARLO BURNUP CALCULATION UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AND PROPAGATION DETERMINATION  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

MONTEBURNS is a Monte-Carlo depletion routine utilizing MCNP and ORIGEN 2.2. Uncertainties exist in the MCNP transport calculation, but this information is not passed to the depletion calculation in ORIGEN or saved. To quantify this transport uncertainty and determine how it propagates between burnup steps, a statistical analysis of a multiple repeated depletion runs is performed. The reactor model chosen is the Oak Ridge Research Reactor (ORR) in a single assembly, infinite lattice configuration. This model was burned for a 25.5 day cycle broken down into three steps. The output isotopics as well as effective multiplication factor (k-effective) were tabulated and histograms were created at each burnup step using the Scott Method to determine the bin width. It was expected that the gram quantities and k-effective histograms would produce normally distributed results since they were produced from a Monte-Carlo routine, but some of results do not. The standard deviation at each burnup step was consistent between fission product isotopes as expected, while the uranium isotopes created some unique results. The variation in the quantity of uranium was small enough that, from the reaction rate MCNP tally, round off error occurred producing a set of repeated results with slight variation. Statistical analyses were performed using the {chi}{sup 2} test against a normal distribution for several isotopes and the k-effective results. While the isotopes failed to reject the null hypothesis of being normally distributed, the {chi}{sup 2} statistic grew through the steps in the k-effective test. The null hypothesis was rejected in the later steps. These results suggest, for a high accuracy solution, MCNP cell material quantities less than 100 grams and greater kcode parameters are needed to minimize uncertainty propagation and minimize round off effects.

Nichols, T.; Sternat, M.; Charlton, W.

2011-05-08T23:59:59.000Z

183

Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

2014-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

184

How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

Faybishenko, B.

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

E-Print Network 3.0 - assessing spatial uncertainty Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty analysis assesses... in evaluating alternatives. Concern about uncertainty in spatial data and analyses is not new, but systematic... A thorough understanding of...

187

Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty AfzalEnergy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty ?DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected

Siddiqui, Afzal

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Modeling Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaic Generation: A Hidden State Spatial Statistical Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AND UNCERTAINTY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION [9] M. Milligan,for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on advancedand uncertainty in solar photovoltaic generation at multiple

Callaway, Duncan S; Tabone, Michaelangelo D

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

E-Print Network 3.0 - attribution measuring uncertainty Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

by uncertainty in fish stock size and dynamics. Among other factors, they attribute fishery... for fish- ery policy, we find that uncertainty in ... Source: Fisher, Anthony...

190

Comparison of nuclear data uncertainty propagation methodologies for PWR burn-up simulations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Several methodologies using different levels of approximations have been developed for propagating nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear burn-up simulations. Most methods fall into the two broad classes of Monte Carlo approaches, which are exact apart from statistical uncertainties but require additional computation time, and first order perturbation theory approaches, which are efficient for not too large numbers of considered response functions but only applicable for sufficiently small nuclear data uncertainties. Some methods neglect isotopic composition uncertainties induced by the depletion steps of the simulations, others neglect neutron flux uncertainties, and the accuracy of a given approximation is often very hard to quantify. In order to get a better sense of the impact of different approximations, this work aims to compare results obtained based on different approximate methodologies with an exact method, namely the NUDUNA Monte Carlo based approach developed by AREVA GmbH. In addition, the impact of different covariance data is studied by comparing two of the presently most complete nuclear data covariance libraries (ENDF/B-VII.1 and SCALE 6.0), which reveals a high dependency of the uncertainty estimates on the source of covariance data. The burn-up benchmark Exercise I-1b proposed by the OECD expert group "Benchmarks for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) for the Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" is studied as an example application. The burn-up simulations are performed with the SCALE 6.0 tool suite.

Carlos Javier Diez; Oliver Buss; Axel Hoefer; Dieter Porsch; Oscar Cabellos

2014-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

191

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.

Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl

2008-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

192

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO] [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

PIV Uncertainty Methodologies for CFD Code Validation at the MIR Facility  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Currently, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is widely used in the nuclear thermal hydraulics field for design and safety analyses. To validate CFD codes, high quality multi dimensional flow field data are essential. The Matched Index of Refraction (MIR) Flow Facility at Idaho National Laboratory has a unique capability to contribute to the development of validated CFD codes through the use of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The significance of the MIR facility is that it permits non intrusive velocity measurement techniques, such as PIV, through complex models without requiring probes and other instrumentation that disturb the flow. At the heart of any PIV calculation is the cross-correlation, which is used to estimate the displacement of particles in some small part of the image over the time span between two images. This image displacement is indicated by the location of the largest peak. In the MIR facility, uncertainty quantification is a challenging task due to the use of optical measurement techniques. Currently, this study is developing a reliable method to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity of the measured data and develop a computer code to automatically analyze the uncertainty/sensitivity of the measured data. The main objective of this study is to develop a well established uncertainty quantification method for the MIR Flow Facility, which consists of many complicated uncertainty factors. In this study, the uncertainty sources are resolved in depth by categorizing them into uncertainties from the MIR flow loop and PIV system (including particle motion, image distortion, and data processing). Then, each uncertainty source is mathematically modeled or adequately defined. Finally, this study will provide a method and procedure to quantify the experimental uncertainty in the MIR Flow Facility with sample test results.

Piyush Sabharwall; Richard Skifton; Carl Stoots; Eung Soo Kim; Thomas Conder

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations: what it takes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The uncertainty principle being a cornerstone of quantum mechanics, it is surprising that in nearly 90 years there have been no direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations. This lacuna was due to the absence of two essential ingredients: appropriate measures of measurement error (and disturbance), and precise formulations of such relations that are {\\em universally valid}and {\\em directly testable}. We formulate two distinct forms of direct tests, based on different measures of error. We present a prototype protocol for a direct test of measurement uncertainty relations in terms of {\\em value deviation errors} (hitherto considered nonfeasible), highlighting the lack of universality of these relations. This shows that the formulation of universal, directly testable measurement uncertainty relations for {\\em state-dependent} error measures remains an important open problem. Recent experiments that were claimed to constitute invalidations of Heisenberg's error-disturbance relation are shown to conform with the spirit of Heisenberg's principle if interpreted as direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations for error measures that quantify {\\em distances between observables}.

Paul Busch; Neil Stevens

2015-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

195

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Understanding Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with the Electric Power System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with themodels and datasets. Photovoltaics fall under the broader

Mills, Andrew

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)

Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

LDRD Final Report: Capabilities for Uncertainty in Predictive Science.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Predictive simulation of systems comprised of numerous interconnected, tightly coupled com-ponents promises to help solve many problems of scientific and national interest. Howeverpredictive simulation of such systems is extremely challenging due to the coupling of adiverse set of physical and biological length and time scales. This report investigates un-certainty quantification methods for such systems that attempt to exploit their structure togain computational efficiency. The traditional layering of uncertainty quantification aroundnonlinear solution processes is inverted to allow for heterogeneous uncertainty quantificationmethods to be applied to each component in a coupled system. Moreover this approachallows stochastic dimension reduction techniques to be applied at each coupling interface.The mathematical feasibility of these ideas is investigated in this report, and mathematicalformulations for the resulting stochastically coupled nonlinear systems are developed.3

Phipps, Eric T.; Eldred, Michael S.; Salinger, Andrew G.; Webster, Clayton G.

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The mean'' value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility's net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

Hanson, D.A.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The ``mean`` value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility`s net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

Hanson, D.A.

1992-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper examines a California-based microgrid?s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find a natural gas generation cost threshold that triggers DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid increases DG investment, while the option to disconnect from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generation cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit when two sources of uncertainty exist.

Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

2008-08-11T23:59:59.000Z

203

Computer-aided-design of agricultural drains under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to be constructed. Using drainage helps dissolve and remove some excess salts and alkal ines. The balance between the amount of salts brought in by irrigation and the amount taken out by drainage is referred to as the salt balance of the area (Scofi eld 1940... for the depth, D, and spacing, L. D, L & 0 (4. 5) This MPP did not include uncertainty. In the next section uncertainty will be incorporated into the MPP. The ful I deterministic NPP is shown below: 35 Min [Ci + C2 + C3 + C4 + s. t. L2Qd D + d' ? (d...

Garcia, Luis Alfredo

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Uncertainties in Air Exchange using Continuous-Injection, Long-Term Sampling Tracer-Gas Methods  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The PerFluorocarbon Tracer (PFT) method is a low-cost approach commonly used for measuring air exchange in buildings using tracer gases. It is a specific application of the more general Continuous-Injection, Long-Term Sampling (CILTS) method. The technique is widely used but there has been little work on understanding the uncertainties (both precision and bias) associated with its use, particularly given that it is typically deployed by untrained or lightly trained people to minimize experimental costs. In this article we will conduct a first-principles error analysis to estimate the uncertainties and then compare that analysis to CILTS measurements that were over-sampled, through the use of multiple tracers and emitter and sampler distribution patterns, in three houses. We find that the CILTS method can have an overall uncertainty of 10-15percent in ideal circumstances, but that even in highly controlled field experiments done by trained experimenters expected uncertainties are about 20percent. In addition, there are many field conditions (such as open windows) where CILTS is not likely to provide any quantitative data. Even avoiding the worst situations of assumption violations CILTS should be considered as having a something like a ?factor of two? uncertainty for the broad field trials that it is typically used in. We provide guidance on how to deploy CILTS and design the experiment to minimize uncertainties.

Sherman, Max H.; Walker, Iain S.; Lunden, Melissa M.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications on the global $\\theta_{13}$ knowledge today. First, Double Chooz, in its final configuration, is the only experiment benefiting from a negligible reactor flux error due to a $\\sim$90\\% geometrical suppression. Second, Daya Bay and RENO could benefit from their partial geometrical cancellation, yielding a potential $\\sim$50\\% error suppression, thus significantly improving the global $\\theta_{13}$ precision today. And third, we illustrate the rationale behind further error suppression upon the exploitation of the inter-reactor error correlations, so far neglected. So, our publication is a key step forward in the context of high precision neutrino reactor experiments providing insight on the suppression of their intrinsic flux error uncertainty, thus affecting past and current experimental results, as well as the design of future experiments.

Andi Cucoanes; Pau Novella; Anatael Cabrera; Muriel Fallot; Anthony Onillon; Michel Obolensky; Frederic Yermia

2015-01-02T23:59:59.000Z

207

Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification in the outputs. The usual difficulties in modeling the work of the nuclear reactor models include the large size, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA b Nuclear Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory

Anitescu, Mihai

208

Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon Alan Ingham and Alistair, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon Alan Ingham and Alistair Ulph Tyndall Centre for Climate International Seminar on the Social Cost of Carbon, London, 7th July 2003. #12;2 Summary In this paper we

Watson, Andrew

209

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

210

The Updated MSW Analysis and the Standard Solar Model Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We update the analysis of the MSW and general astrophysical solutions to the combined solar neutrino observations by including the GALLEX II result. We also show that our parametrized flux uncertainties are equivalent to the Monte-Carlo results of Bahcall and Ulrich.

Naoya Hata; Paul Langacker

1993-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

211

NON-DOUBLE-COUPLE EARTHQUAKES: NET FORCES AND UNCERTAINTIES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NON-DOUBLE-COUPLE EARTHQUAKES: NET FORCES AND UNCERTAINTIES G.R. Foulger, B.R. Julian University-980) to include net forces in the mechanisms. Net forces are theoretically required to describe earthquakes) waves cannot resolve sources such as vertical dipoles. When source mechanisms include net forces, even

Foulger, G. R.

212

The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, inflation, variation of GDP growth, variation of inflation Intl: property rights protection, rule of law.340 international sample diff = 0.408 Result The link between investment and stock prices is even weaker whenThe Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and Investment Efficiency

Lin, Xiaodong

213

Robust Path Planning and Feedback Design under Stochastic Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Introduction Autonomous vehicles such as Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) need to be able to plan trajectories; prior work showed that a UAV operating at a constant altitude as well as other autonomous vehicles canRobust Path Planning and Feedback Design under Stochastic Uncertainty Lars Blackmore Autonomous

Williams, Brian C.

214

UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and required corrections for remaining water content. Frozen sediments did not lose Hg during a 72-day storage of the analysis (while adhering to strict QA/QC criteria) produced compounded uncertainties of ±11 and ±29% in Hg to correctly evaluate trends and remediation efforts. Keywords: Florida Everglades, Lake Erie, mercury

Gottgens, Hans

215

Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty Submitted in partial chapters. My conversations with Kurt Walzer at Clean Air Task Force and Rory McIlmoil at Coal Valley Wind Technology Laboratory. I did not complete this work alone. I had a lot of help along the way. I would like

216

Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

Boyer, Edmond

218

POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Car e1, M.P. Nowak2, W. Romisch2 Forschungsgemeinschaft. leads to a tremendous increase in the complex- ity of the traditional power optimization mod- els-burning) thermal units, pumped-storage hydro plants and delivery con- tracts and describe an optimization model

Rmisch, Werner

219

POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Care 1 , M.P. Nowak 2 , W. R in the complex ity of the traditional power optimization mod els. The remedy we propose is decomposition whichstorage hydro plants and delivery con tracts and describe an optimization model for its leastcost operation

Rmisch, Werner

220

Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

secondary recovery industry. Secondary recovery forestalls depletion of non-renewable resources and avoidsStochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty and Optimization Program #12;2 #12;3 Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under

de Weck, Olivier L.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

CSC412: Uncertainty & Learning in AI . Instructor: Sam Roweis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 CSC412: Uncertainty & Learning in AI . Instructor: Sam Roweis . Tutor: Y.W. Teh . Lectures: MW10 inherently stochastic behaviour in the world A B C D E . Databases -- traditional DB technology cannot answer filterting (e.g. Amazon) Other Related Applications . Stochastic Signal Processing -- denoising, source

Roweis, Sam

222

Prediction under uncertainty in reservoir modeling S. Subbeya,*, M. Christiea  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Firstly, multiple reservoir realizations are generated using a new stochastic algorithm. This involves by Elsevier B.V. Keywords: Uncertainty; History matching; Stochastic algorithm; Bayesian framework; Maximum:10.1016/j.petrol.2004.02.011 * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: sam.subbey@pet.hw.ac.uk (S

Sambridge, Malcolm

223

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent in water distribution systems con- cern reservoir(s) management with associated pump scheduling

Bargiela, Andrzej

224

Commitment Under Uncertainty: Two-Stage Stochastic Matching Problems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on classical combinatorial optimization problems [23]: set cover, minimum spanning tree, Steiner tree, maximum structures, with the notable exception of Gupta and P´al's work on stochastic Steiner Tree [9]. SecondCommitment Under Uncertainty: Two-Stage Stochastic Matching Problems Irit Katriel , Claire Kenyon

Mathieu, Claire

225

Uncertainties analysis of fission fraction for reactor antineutrino experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Reactor antineutrino experiment are used to study neutrino oscillation, search for signatures of nonstandard neutrino interaction, and monitor reactor operation for safeguard application. Reactor simulation is an important source of uncertainties for a reactor neutrino experiment. Commercial code is used for reactor simulation to evaluate fission fraction in Daya Bay neutrino experiment, but the source code doesn't open to our researcher results from commercial secret. In this study, The open source code DRAGON was improved to calculate the fission rates of the four most important isotopes in fissions, $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu, and then was validated for PWRs using the Takahama-3 benchmark. The fission fraction results are consistent with those of MIT's results. Then, fission fraction of Daya Bay reactor core was calculated by using improved DRAGON code, and the fission fraction calculated by DRAGON agreed well with these calculated by SCIENCE. The average deviation less than 5\\% for all the four isotopes. The correlation coefficient matrix between $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu were also studied using DRAGON, and then the uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction was calculated by using the correlation coefficient matrix. The uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction simulation is 0.6\\% per core for Daya Bay antineutrino experiment. The uncertainties source of fission fraction calculation need further to be studied in the future.

X. B. Ma; F. Lu; L. Z. Wang; Y. X. Chen; W. L. Zhong; F. P. An

2015-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

226

Impact of Power Generation Uncertainty on Power System Static Performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in load and generation are modeled as random variables and the output of the power flow computationImpact of Power Generation Uncertainty on Power System Static Performance Yu Christine Chen, Xichen--The rapid growth in renewable energy resources such as wind and solar generation introduces significant

Liberzon, Daniel

227

Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model Seung-Jean Kim Stephen Boyd efficient frontier, i.e., the optimal trade-off curve in terms of worst-case MV preference, as the extension of the efficient frontier to the worst-case MV analysis setting. We establish some basic properties of the robust

228

A Cooperative Approach for Job Shop Scheduling under Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

control, consists to use a two-level resolution scheme: an off-line scheduling level builds upA Cooperative Approach for Job Shop Scheduling under Uncertainties C. BRIANDa,1 , S. OURARIb and B on job shop scheduling problems in a cooperative environment. Unlike classical deterministic approaches

Briand, Cyril

229

Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland nicolas.gast@epfl.ch Dan-Cristian Tomozei EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland dan-cristian.tomozei@epfl.ch Jean-Yves Le Boudec EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland jean

Dalang, Robert C.

230

Performance Measurement Under Increasing Environmental Uncertainty In The Context of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-2 Fuzzy Logic Based Robotic Sailing Naisan Benatar, Uwe Aickelin and Jonathan M. Garibaldi Member on fuzzy logic, operating under uncertainty, is a sub- ject area which has been somewhat ignored to be drawn. Keywords: Interval Type-2 Fuzzy, Robot Boat control, Fuzzy Control, Performance measures

Aickelin, Uwe

231

Quantification of Variability and Uncertainty in Emission H. Christopher Frey  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and uncertainty for selected examples, including NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants and CO, NOx in emissions from one source to another within a category. Advances in methodology and computing power enable of NOx from electric utility power plants; and (2) emissions of CO, NOx, and hydrocarbons (HC) from light

Frey, H. Christopher

232

Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav.ntnu.no) Abstract: The information content in measurements of offshore oil and gas production is often low, and when in the context of offshore oil and gas fields, can be considered the total output of production wells, a mass

Johansen, Tor Arne

233

River meander modeling and confronting uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study examines the meandering phenomenon as it occurs in media throughout terrestrial, glacial, atmospheric, and aquatic environments. Analysis of the minimum energy principle, along with theories of Coriolis forces (and random walks to explain the meandering phenomenon) found that these theories apply at different temporal and spatial scales. Coriolis forces might induce topological changes resulting in meandering planforms. The minimum energy principle might explain how these forces combine to limit the sinuosity to depth and width ratios that are common throughout various media. The study then compares the first order analytical solutions for flow field by Ikeda, et al. (1981) and Johannesson and Parker (1989b). Ikeda's et al. linear bank erosion model was implemented to predict the rate of bank erosion in which the bank erosion coefficient is treated as a stochastic variable that varies with physical properties of the bank (e.g., cohesiveness, stratigraphy, or vegetation density). The developed model was used to predict the evolution of meandering planforms. Then, the modeling results were analyzed and compared to the observed data. Since the migration of a meandering channel consists of downstream translation, lateral expansion, and downstream or upstream rotations several measures are formulated in order to determine which of the resulting planforms is closest to the experimental measured one. Results from the deterministic model highly depend on the calibrated erosion coefficient. Since field measurements are always limited, the stochastic model yielded more realistic predictions of meandering planform evolutions. Due to the random nature of bank erosion coefficient, the meandering planform evolution is a stochastic process that can only be accurately predicted by a stochastic model.

Posner, Ari J. (University of Arizona Tucson, AZ)

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Performance evaluation of passive cooling in office buildings based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Natural night ventilation is an interesting passive cooling method in moderate climates. Driven by wind and stack generated pressures, it cools down the exposed building structure at night, in which the heat of the previous day is accumulated. The performance of natural night ventilation highly depends on the external weather conditions and especially on the outdoor temperature. An increase of this outdoor temperature is noticed over the last century and the IPCC predicts an additional rise to the end of this century. A methodology is needed to evaluate the reliable operation of the indoor climate of buildings in case of warmer and uncertain summer conditions. The uncertainty on the climate and on other design data can be very important in the decision process of a building project. The aim of this research is to develop a methodology to predict the performance of natural night ventilation using building energy simulation taking into account the uncertainties in the input. The performance evaluation of natural night ventilation is based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that thermal comfort in a single office cooled with single-sided night ventilation had the largest uncertainty. The uncertainties on thermal comfort in case of passive stack and cross ventilation were substantially smaller. However, since wind, as the main driving force for cross ventilation, is highly variable, the cross ventilation strategy required larger louvre areas than the stack ventilation strategy to achieve a similar performance. The differences in uncertainty between the orientations were small. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the most dominant set of input parameters causing the uncertainty on thermal comfort. The internal heat gains, solar heat gain coefficient of the sunblinds, internal convective heat transfer coefficient, thermophysical properties related to thermal mass, set-point temperatures controlling the natural night ventilation, the discharge coefficient C{sub d} of the night ventilation opening and the wind pressure coefficients C{sub p} were identified to have the largest impact on the uncertainty of thermal comfort. The impact of the warming climate on the uncertainty of thermal comfort was determined. The uncertainty on thermal comfort appeared to increase significantly when a weather data set with recurrence time of 10 years (warm weather) was applied in the transient simulations in stead of a standard weather data set. Natural night ventilation, designed for normal weather conditions, was clearly not able to ensure a high probability of good thermal comfort in warm weather. To ensure a high probability of good thermal comfort and to reduce the performance uncertainty in a warming climate, natural night ventilation has to be combined with additional measures. Different measures were analysed, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis. All the measures were shown to significantly decrease the uncertainty of thermal comfort in warm weather. The study showed the importance to carry out simulations with a warm weather data set together with the analysis under typical conditions. This approach allows to gain a better understanding of the performance of a natural night ventilation design, and to optimize the design to a robust solution. (author)

Breesch, H. [Building Physics, Construction and Services, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ghent University, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Sustainable Building Research Group, Department of Construction, Catholic University College Ghent, Gebroeders Desmetstraat 1, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Janssens, A. [Building Physics, Construction and Services, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ghent University, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium)

2010-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

235

Uncertainty analysis of densities and isotopics: Handling correlations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper discusses two cases of correlated parameters in uncertainty analyses: (1) the case of measured mass, density, and volume or spatial dimension correlations; and (2) the case of measured material isotopics, where increasing one atom fraction must cause the others to decrease. In the first case, an equation is derived that has a term due to uncertain density, a term due to uncertain dimensions, and a term due to the correlation between density and dimensions. In a numerical test problem, this equation gives the same result as the standard equation that treats mass and dimensions independently. In the case of isotopics, an equation is derived relating the uncertainty due to uncertain isotopic fractions to the sensitivities to isotopic densities, which are easier to calculate. The equation is verified in a test problem. (authors)

Favorite, J. A.; Armstrong, J. C. [X-Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Burr, T. [Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.

Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

1981-02-11T23:59:59.000Z

237

Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional Theory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and superheavy elements, or to describe the structure of nuclei far from stability. While on-going efforts seek to better root nuclear DFT in the theory of nuclear forces [see Duguet et al., this issue], energy functionals remain semi-phenomenological constructions that depend on a set of parameters adjusted to experimental data in finite nuclei. In this paper, we review recent efforts to quantify the related uncertainties, and propagate them to model predictions. In particular, we cover the topics of parameter estimation for inverse problems, statistical analysis of model uncertainties and Bayesian inference methods. Illustrative examples are taken from the literature.

N. Schunck; J. D. McDonnell; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. M. Wild

2015-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

238

The minimum-uncertainty coherent states for Landau levels  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Glauber minimum-uncertainty coherent states with two variables for Landau levels, based on the representation of Weyl-Heisenberg algebra by two different modes, have been studied about four decades ago. Here, we introduce new two-variable coherent states with minimum uncertainty relationship for Landau levels in three different methods: the infinite unitary representation of su(1, 1) is realized in two different methods, first, by consecutive levels with the same energy gaps and also with the same value for z-angular momentum quantum number, then, by shifting z-angular momentum mode number by two units while the energy level remaining the same. Besides, for su(2), whether by lowest Landau levels or Landau levels with lowest z-angular momentum, just one finite unitary representation is introduced. Having constructed the generalized Klauder-Perelomov coherent states, for any of the three representations, we obtain their Glauber coherency by displacement operator of Weyl-Heisenberg algebra.

Dehghani, A. [Physics Department, Payame Noor University, P. O. Box 19395-4697 Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fakhri, H. [Department of Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, Faculty of Physics, University of Tabriz, P. O. Box 51666-16471 Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mojaveri, B. [Department of Physics, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, P. O. Box 51745-406 Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

239

Uncertainties in nuclear transition matrix elements of neutrinoless ?? decay  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To estimate the uncertainties associated with the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} (K=0?/0N) for the 0{sup +} ? 0{sup +} transitions of electron and positron emitting modes of the neutrinoless ?? decay, a statistical analysis has been performed by calculating sets of eight (twelve) different nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} in the PHFB model by employing four different parameterizations of a Hamiltonian with pairing plus multipolar effective two-body interaction and two (three) different parameterizations of Jastrow short range correlations. The averages in conjunction with their standard deviations provide an estimate of the uncertainties associated the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} calculated within the PHFB model, the maximum of which turn out to be 13% and 19% owing to the exchange of light and heavy Majorana neutrinos, respectively.

Rath, P. K. [Department of Physics, University of Lucknow, Lucknow-226007 (India)

2013-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

240

Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...

Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Estimated Uncertainties in the Idaho National Laboratory Matched-Index-of-Refraction Lower Plenum Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of the fluid dynamics experiments in the MIR (Matched-Index-of-Refraction) flow system at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is to develop benchmark databases for the assessment of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions of the momentum equations, scalar mixing, and turbulence models for typical Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) plenum geometries in the limiting case of negligible buoyancy and constant fluid properties. The experiments use optical techniques, primarily particle image velocimetry (PIV) in the INL MIR flow system. The benefit of the MIR technique is that it permits optical measurements to determine flow characteristics in passages and around objects to be obtained without locating a disturbing transducer in the flow field and without distortion of the optical paths. The objective of the present report is to develop understanding of the magnitudes of experimental uncertainties in the results to be obtained in such experiments. Unheated MIR experiments are first steps when the geometry is complicated. One does not want to use a computational technique, which will not even handle constant properties properly. This report addresses the general background, requirements for benchmark databases, estimation of experimental uncertainties in mean velocities and turbulence quantities, the MIR experiment, PIV uncertainties, positioning uncertainties, and other contributing measurement uncertainties.

Donald M. McEligot; Hugh M. McIlroy, Jr.; Ryan C. Johnson

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.

Michael Ghil; Mickal D. Chekroun; Eric Simonnet

2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

244

INTEGRATION OF SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS - HANFORD EXAMPLES  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

{sm_bullet} Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case {sm_bullet} Spatial coverage identical to reference case {sm_bullet} Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values {sm_bullet} No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate

WOOD MI

2009-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

245

Uncertainty associated with probabilistic prediction of nutrient transport by runoff  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and estimating the probability and severity of potential hazards to water quality. The objective of this research was to use PRA to characterize the uncertainty associated with probabilistic determination of the nutrient transport by runoff at two dairies.... Simple simulation models were used to determine the rainfall runoff probability and lagoon overflow probabilities. Phosphorous index method in combination with nutrient application rates and soil test levels was used to determine the presence oF excess...

Jain, Mohit

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Quantification Of Margins And Uncertainties: A Bayesian Approach (full Paper)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) is 'a formalism for dealing with the reliability of complex technical systems, and the confidence which can be placed in estimates of that reliability.' (Eardleyet al, 2005). In this paper, we show how QMU may be interpreted in the framework of Bayesian statistical inference, using a probabilistic network. The Bayesian approach clarifies the probabilistic underpinnings of the formalism, and shows how the formalism can be used for deciSion-making.

Wallstrom, Timothy C [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Joint measurements of spin, operational locality and uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Joint, or simultaneous, measurements of non-commuting observables are possible within quantum mechanics, if one accepts an increase in the variances of the jointly measured observables. In this paper, we discuss joint measurements of a spin 1/2 particle along any two directions. Starting from an operational locality principle, it is shown how to obtain a bound on how sharp the joint measurement can be. We give a direct interpretation of this bound in terms of an uncertainty relation.

Erika Andersson; Stephen M. Barnett; Alain Aspect

2005-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

248

New agegraphic dark energy model with generalized uncertainty principle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We investigate the new agegraphic dark energy models with generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). It turns out that although the GUP affects the early universe, it does not change the current and future dark energy-dominated universe significantly. Furthermore, this model could describe the matter-dominated universe in the past only when the parameter $n$ is chosen to be $n>n_c$, where the critical value determined to be $n_c=2.799531478$.

Yong-Wan Kim; Hyung Won Lee; Yun Soo Myung; Mu-In Park

2008-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

249

Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

Zettlemoyer, M.D.

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Uncertainty Quantification in Viscous Hypersonic Flows using Gradient Information and Surrogate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty Quantification in Viscous Hypersonic Flows using Gradient Information and Surrogate models for the purposes of uncertainty quantification within the context of viscous hypersonic flows quantification in hypersonic flows. I. Introduction and Motivation The increasing reliance on numerical

Rumpfkeil, Markus Peer

251

The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry Abstract: We estimate hurdle rates for firms' investments in pollution abatement technology, using, oil price uncertainty, abatement investment, sulfur emissions, pulp and paper industry, energy

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

252

Continuous reservoir simulation incorporating uncertainty quantification and real-time data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A significant body of work has demonstrated both the promise and difficulty of quantifying uncertainty in reservoir simulation forecasts. It is generally accepted that accurate and complete quantification of uncertainty should lead to better...

Holmes, Jay Cuthbert

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

253

Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Species Conservation Investment with Environmental  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in conservation actions that generate substantial non-use benefits, such as species and biodiversity conservation1 Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Species Conservation Investment with Environmental: Environmental value transfer and species conservation Key words: environmental value transfer, uncertainty

Botea, Adi

254

ESTIMATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN REACTIVITY ACCIDENT NEUTRONIC CALCULATIONS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A study of the uncertainty in calculations of the rod ejection accident in a pressurized water reactor is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This paper is a progress report on that study. Results are presented for the sensitivity of core energy deposition to the key parameters: ejected rod worth, delayed neutron fraction, Doppler reactivity coefficient, and fuel specific heat. These results can be used in the future to estimate the uncertainty in local fuel enthalpy given some assumptions about the uncertainty in the key parameters. This study is also concerned with the effect of the intra-assembly representation in calculations. The issue is the error that might be present if assembly-average power is calculated, and pin peaking factors from a static calculation are then used to determine local fuel enthalpy. This is being studied with the help of a collaborative effort with Russian and French analysts who are using codes with different intra-assembly representations. The US code being used is PARCS which calculates power on an assembly-average basis. The Russian code being used is BARS which calculates power for individual fuel pins using a heterogeneous representation based on a Green's Function method.

DIAMOND,D.J.; YANG,C.Y.; ARONSON,A.L.

1998-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

255

Estimating the uncertainty in reactivity accident neutronic calculations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A study of the uncertainty in calculations of the rod ejection accident in a pressurized water reactor is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This paper is a progress report on that study. Results are presented for the sensitivity of core energy deposition to the key parameters: ejected rod worth, delayed neutron fraction, Doppler reactivity coefficient, and fuel specific heat. These results can be used in the future to estimate the uncertainty in local fuel enthalpy given some assumptions about the uncertainty in the key parameters. This study is also concerned with the effect of the intra-assembly representation in calculations. The issue is the error that might be present if assembly-average power is calculated, and pin peaking factors from a static calculation are then used to determine local fuel enthalpy. This is being studied with the help of a collaborative effort with Russian and French analysts who are using codes with different intra-assembly representations. The US code being used is PARCS which calculates power on an assembly-average basis. The Russian code being used is BARS which calculates power for individual fuel pins using a heterogeneous representation based on a Green`s Function method.

Diamond, D.J.; Yang, C.Y.; Aronson, A.L.

1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

256

Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

due to first and second generation biofuels and uncertaintyIntroducing First and Second Generation Biofuels into GTAP

Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

was done in the framework of a research project on model uncertainty at HSBC-CCF, Division of Market

258

Sampling-based Uncertainty Quantification in Deconvolution of X-ray Radiographs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In imaging applications that focus on quantitative analysis{such as X-ray radiography in the security sciences--it is necessary to be able to reliably estimate the uncertainties in the processing algorithms applied to the image data, and deconvolving the system blur out of the image is usually an essential step. In this work we solve the deconvolution problem within a Bayesian framework for edge-enhancing reconstruction with uncertainty quantification. The likelihood is a normal approximation to the Poisson likelihood, and the prior is generated from a classical total variation regularized Poisson deconvolution. Samples from the corresponding posterior distribution are computed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, giving a pointwise measure of uncertainty in the final, deconvolved signal. We demonstrate the results on real data used to calibrate a high-energy X-ray source and show that this approach gives reconstructions as good as classical regularization methods, while mitigating many of their drawbacks.

Howard, M. [NSTec; Luttman, A. [NSTec; Fowler, M. [NSTec

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Quantum time uncertainty in Schwarzschild-anti-de Sitter black holes  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The combined action of gravity and quantum mechanics gives rise to a minimum time uncertainty in the lowest order approximation of a perturbative scheme, in which quantum effects are regarded as corrections to the classical spacetime geometry. From the nonperturbative point of view, both gravity and quantum mechanics are treated on equal footing in a description that already contains all possible backreaction effects as those above in a nonlinear manner. In this paper, the existence or not of such minimum time uncertainty is analyzed in the context of Schwarzschild-anti-de Sitter black holes using the isolated horizon formalism. We show that from a perturbative point of view, a nonzero time uncertainty is generically present owing to the energy scale introduced by the cosmological constant, while in a quantization scheme that includes nonperturbatively the effects of that scale, an arbitrarily high time resolution can be reached.

Galan, Pablo; Mena Marugan, Guillermo A. [Instituto de Estructura de la Materia, CSIC, Serrano 121, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Garay, Luis J. [Departamento de Fisica Teorica II, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Estructura de la Materia, CSIC, Serrano 121, 28006 Madrid (Spain)

2007-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

260

Trapped Between Two Tails: Trading Off Scientific Uncertainties via Climate Targets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Climate change policies must trade off uncertainties about future warming, about the social and ecological impacts of warming, and about the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We show that laxer carbon targets produce broader distributions for climate damages, skewed towards severe outcomes. However, if potential low-carbon technologies fill overlapping niches, then more stringent carbon targets produce broader distributions for the cost of reducing emissions, skewed towards high-cost outcomes. We use the technology- rich GCAM integrated assessment model to assess the robustness of 450 ppm and 500 ppm carbon targets to each uncertain factor. The 500 ppm target provides net benefits across a broad range of futures. The 450 ppm target provides net benefits only when impacts are greater than conventionally assumed, when multiple technological breakthroughs lower the cost of abatement, or when evaluated with a low discount rate. Policy evaluations are more sensitive to uncertainty about abatement technology and impacts than to uncertainty about warming.

Lemoine, Derek M.; McJeon, Haewon C.

2013-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR MODEL PARAMETERS ON ESTIMATED MASSES AND RADII OF SINGLE STARS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate and precise values of radii and masses of stars are needed to correctly estimate properties of extrasolar planets. We examine the effect of uncertainties in stellar model parameters on estimates of the masses, radii, and average densities of solar-type stars. We find that in the absence of seismic data on solar-like oscillations, stellar masses can be determined to a greater accuracy than either stellar radii or densities; but to get reasonably accurate results the effective temperature, log g, and metallicity must be measured to high precision. When seismic data are available, stellar density is the most well-determined property, followed by radius, with mass the least well-determined property. Uncertainties in stellar convection, quantified in terms of uncertainties in the value of the mixing length parameter, cause the most significant errors in the estimates of stellar properties.

Basu, Sarbani [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, P.O. Box 208101, New Haven, CT 06520-8101 (United States); Verner, Graham A.; Chaplin, William J.; Elsworth, Yvonne, E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.edu, E-mail: gav@bison.ph.bham.ac.uk, E-mail: w.j.chaplin@bham.ac.uk, E-mail: y.p.elsworth@bham.ac.uk [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom)

2012-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

262

Ideas underlying quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU): a white paper.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions at Sandia National Laboratories. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, we discuss the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and the risk-informed decision making that is best suited for decisive application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides a systematic bibliography of useful papers for the interested reader to deepen their understanding of these ideas.

Helton, Jon Craig; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Integration and quantification of uncertainty of volumetric and material balance analyses using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................... 13 Example 1: Gas-cap Oil Reservoir Reported by Dake ................... 13 Case 1: Large Uncertainty in Prior and Small Uncertainty in Pressure Data .............................................................................. 13 Case 2... OHIP and quantify uncertainty. Test the framework using data for gas-cap oil reservoirs reported in the literature. 2. Investigate the effect of correlation between parameters of the prior distribution on the combined OHIP estimate. General...

Ogele, Chile

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

TRITIUM UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SURFACE WATER SAMPLES AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Radiochemical analyses of surface water samples, in the framework of Environmental Monitoring, have associated uncertainties for the radioisotopic results reported. These uncertainty analyses pertain to the tritium results from surface water samples collected at five locations on the Savannah River near the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). Uncertainties can result from the field-sampling routine, can be incurred during transport due to the physical properties of the sample, from equipment limitations, and from the measurement instrumentation used. The uncertainty reported by the SRS in their Annual Site Environmental Report currently considers only the counting uncertainty in the measurements, which is the standard reporting protocol for radioanalytical chemistry results. The focus of this work is to provide an overview of all uncertainty components associated with SRS tritium measurements, estimate the total uncertainty according to ISO 17025, and to propose additional experiments to verify some of the estimated uncertainties. The main uncertainty components discovered and investigated in this paper are tritium absorption or desorption in the sample container, HTO/H{sub 2}O isotopic effect during distillation, pipette volume, and tritium standard uncertainty. The goal is to quantify these uncertainties and to establish a combined uncertainty in order to increase the scientific depth of the SRS Annual Site Environmental Report.

Atkinson, R.

2012-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

265

Risk Assessment & Management This chapter presents the Council's approach to addressing uncertainty and managing risk. After  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risk Assessment & Management This chapter presents the Council's approach to addressing uncertainty and managing risk. After reviewing the reasons for addressing uncertainty in the Council's Fifth Power Plan the studies evaluated the performance of resource plans under uncertainty, including their associated risk

266

Assessing Early Investments in Low Carbon Technologies under Uncertainty: The Case of Carbon Capture and Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: The Case of Carbon Capture and Storage By Eleanor Ereira Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division on Coal-fired Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a case study of a new high-cost energyAssessing Early Investments in Low Carbon Technologies under Uncertainty: The Case of Carbon

267

On the Study of Uncertainty in Inflow Turbulence Model Parameters in Wind Turbine Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

On the Study of Uncertainty in Inflow Turbulence Model Parameters in Wind Turbine Applications Korn, Austin, TX 78712 In stochastic simulation of inflow turbulence random fields for wind turbine applica models can be in turn highly variable. Turbine load and performance variability could as well result

Manuel, Lance

268

Design Features and Technology Uncertainties for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents the conclusions, observations, and recommendations of the Independent Technology Review Group (ITRG) regarding design features and important technology uncertainties associated with very-high-temperature nuclear system concepts for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). The ITRG performed its reviews during the period November 2003 through April 2004.

John M. Ryskamp; Phil Hildebrandt; Osamu Baba; Ron Ballinger; Robert Brodsky; Hans-Wolfgang Chi; Dennis Crutchfield; Herb Estrada; Jeane-Claude Garnier; Gerald Gordon; Richard Hobbins; Dan Keuter; Marilyn Kray; Philippe Martin; Steve Melancon; Christian Simon; Henry Stone; Robert Varrin; Werner von Lensa

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Uncertainties in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Advanced  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To meet Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) cellulosic biofuel mandates, the United States will require an annual domestic supply of about 242 million Mg of biomass by 2022. To improve the feedstock logistics of lignocellulosic biofuels and access available biomass resources from areas with varying yields, commodity systems have been proposed and designed to deliver on-spec biomass feedstocks at preprocessing depots, which densify and stabilize the biomass prior to long-distance transport and delivery to centralized biorefineries. The harvesting, preprocessing, and logistics (HPL) of biomass commodity supply chains thus could introduce spatially variable environmental impacts into the biofuel life cycle due to needing to harvest, move, and preprocess biomass from multiple distances that have variable spatial density. This study examines the uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of corn stover logisticsHPL within a bio-ethanol supply chain in the state of Kansas, where sustainable biomass supply varies spatially. Two scenarios were evaluated each having a different number of depots of varying capacity and location within Kansas relative to a central commodity-receiving biorefinery to test GHG emissions uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the spatial uncertainty in the HPL gate-to-gate sequence. The results show that the transport of densified biomass introduces the highest variability and contribution to the carbon footprint of the logistics HPL supply chain (0.2-13 g CO2e/MJ). Moreover, depending upon the biomass availability and its spatial density and surrounding transportation infrastructure (road and rail), logistics HPL processes can increase the variability in life cycle environmental impacts for lignocellulosic biofuels. Within Kansas, life cycle GHG emissions could range from 24 to 41 g CO2e/MJ depending upon the location, size and number of preprocessing depots constructed. However, this range can be minimized through optimizing the siting of preprocessing depots where ample rail infrastructure exists to supply biomass commodity to a regional biorefinery supply system

Kara G. Cafferty; Erin M. Searcy; Long Nguyen; Sabrina Spatari

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Quantification of Uncertainties in Nuclear Density Functional theory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Reliable predictions of nuclear properties are needed as much to answer fundamental science questions as in applications such as reactor physics or data evaluation. Nuclear density functional theory is currently the only microscopic, global approach to nuclear structure that is applicable throughout the nuclear chart. In the past few years, a lot of effort has been devoted to setting up a general methodology to assess theoretical uncertainties in nuclear DFT calculations. In this paper, we summarize some of the recent progress in this direction. Most of the new material discussed here will be be published in separate articles.

N. Schunck; J. D. McDonnell; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. Wild

2014-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

271

On the energy-time uncertainty principle A didactical note  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This brief note has the didactical purpose of discussing the meaning of the uncertainty principle involving energy and time in quantum mechanics by means of a review of the seminal works on this subject. The importance of this topic is, indeed, frequently neglected in several textbooks on quantum mechanics. Then, these pages are addressed to students attenting to an undergraduate course on quantum theory; and the original aim is that of presenting a list of references of the points that take part in the principal discussions on the subject. Special attention is devoted to the discussion of the fallacies, which are certainly persistent in the didactical literature.

Giribet, G

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Identifying and bounding uncertainties in nuclear reactor thermal power calculations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Determination of the thermal power generated in the reactor core of a nuclear power plant is a critical element in the safe and economic operation of the plant. Direct measurement of the reactor core thermal power is made using neutron flux instrumentation; however, this instrumentation requires frequent calibration due to changes in the measured flux caused by fuel burn-up, flux pattern changes, and instrumentation drift. To calibrate the nuclear instruments, steam plant calorimetry, a process of performing a heat balance around the nuclear steam supply system, is used. There are four basic elements involved in the calculation of thermal power based on steam plant calorimetry: The mass flow of the feedwater from the power conversion system, the specific enthalpy of that feedwater, the specific enthalpy of the steam delivered to the power conversion system, and other cycle gains and losses. Of these elements, the accuracy of the feedwater mass flow and the feedwater enthalpy, as determined from its temperature and pressure, are typically the largest contributors to the calorimetric calculation uncertainty. Historically, plants have been required to include a margin of 2% in the calculation of the reactor thermal power for the licensed maximum plant output to account for instrumentation uncertainty. The margin is intended to ensure a cushion between operating power and the power for which safety analyses are performed. Use of approved chordal ultrasonic transit-time technology to make the feedwater flow and temperature measurements (in place of traditional differential-pressure- based instruments and resistance temperature detectors [RTDs]) allows for nuclear plant thermal power calculations accurate to 0.3%-0.4% of plant rated power. This improvement in measurement accuracy has allowed many plant operators in the U.S. and around the world to increase plant power output through Measurement Uncertainty Recapture (MUR) up-rates of up to 1.7% of rated power, while also decreasing the probability of significant over-power events. This paper will examine the basic elements involved in calculation of thermal power using ultrasonic transit-time technology and will discuss the criteria for bounding uncertainties associated with each element in order to achieve reactor thermal power calculations to within 0.3% to 0.4%. (authors)

Phillips, J.; Hauser, E.; Estrada, H. [Cameron, 1000 McClaren Woods Drive, Coraopolis, PA 15108 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Molecular nonlinear dynamics and protein thermal uncertainty quantification  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This work introduces molecular nonlinear dynamics (MND) as a new approach for describing protein folding and aggregation. By using a mode system, we show that the MND of disordered proteins is chaotic while that of folded proteins exhibits intrinsically low dimensional manifolds (ILDMs). The stability of ILDMs is found to strongly correlate with protein energies. We propose a novel method for protein thermal uncertainty quantification based on persistently invariant ILDMs. Extensive comparison with experimental data and the state-of-the-art methods in the field validate the proposed new method for protein B-factor prediction.

Xia, Kelin [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)] [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Wei, Guo-Wei, E-mail: wei@math.msu.edu [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States) [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)

2014-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

274

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Seitz, R

2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

275

Uncertainty Analysis of RELAP5-3D  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As world-wide energy consumption continues to increase, so does the demand for the use of alternative energy sources, such as Nuclear Energy. Nuclear Power Plants currently supply over 370 gigawatts of electricity, and more than 60 new nuclear reactors have been commissioned by 15 different countries. The primary concern for Nuclear Power Plant operation and lisencing has been safety. The safety of the operation of Nuclear Power Plants is no simple matter- it involves the training of operators, design of the reactor, as well as equipment and design upgrades throughout the lifetime of the reactor, etc. To safely design, operate, and understand nuclear power plants, industry and government alike have relied upon the use of best-estimate simulation codes, which allow for an accurate model of any given plant to be created with well-defined margins of safety. The most widely used of these best-estimate simulation codes in the Nuclear Power industry is RELAP5-3D. Our project focused on improving the modeling capabilities of RELAP5-3D by developing uncertainty estimates for its calculations. This work involved analyzing high, medium, and low ranked phenomena from an INL PIRT on a small break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident as wall as an analysis of a large break Loss-Of- Coolant Accident. Statistical analyses were performed using correlation coefficients. To perform the studies, computer programs were written that modify a template RELAP5 input deck to produce one deck for each combination of key input parameters. Python scripting enabled the running of the generated input files with RELAP5-3D on INLs massively parallel cluster system. Data from the studies was collected and analyzed with SAS. A summary of the results of our studies are presented.

Alexandra E Gertman; Dr. George L Mesina

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Quantification of initial-data uncertainty on a shock-accelerated gas cylinder  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We quantify initial-data uncertainties on a shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder by two-dimensional well-resolved direct numerical simulations. A high-resolution compressible multicomponent flow simulation model is coupled with a polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the initial-data uncertainties to the output quantities of interest. The initial flow configuration follows previous experimental and numerical works of the shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder. We investigate three main initial-data uncertainties, (i) shock Mach number, (ii) contamination of SF{sub 6} with acetone, and (iii) initial deviations of the heavy-gas region from a perfect cylindrical shape. The impact of initial-data uncertainties on the mixing process is examined. The results suggest that the mixing process is highly sensitive to input variations of shock Mach number and acetone contamination. Additionally, our results indicate that the measured shock Mach number in the experiment of Tomkins et al. [An experimental investigation of mixing mechanisms in shock-accelerated flow, J. Fluid. Mech. 611, 131 (2008)] and the estimated contamination of the SF{sub 6} region with acetone [S. K. Shankar, S. Kawai, and S. K. Lele, Two-dimensional viscous flow simulation of a shock accelerated heavy gas cylinder, Phys. Fluids 23, 024102 (2011)] exhibit deviations from those that lead to best agreement between our simulations and the experiment in terms of overall flow evolution.

Tritschler, V. K., E-mail: volker.tritschler@aer.mw.tum.de; Avdonin, A.; Hickel, S.; Hu, X. Y.; Adams, N. A. [Institute of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics, Technische Universitt Mnchen, 85747 Garching (Germany)] [Institute of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics, Technische Universitt Mnchen, 85747 Garching (Germany)

2014-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

277

Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Increasing energy efficiency is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, reducing oil dependence, and achieving a sustainable global energy system. The tendency of markets to neglect apparently cost-effective energy efficiency options has been called the efficiency gap or energy paradox. The market for energy efficiency in new, energy-using durable goods, however, appears to have a bias that leads to undervaluation of future energy savings relative to their expected value. This paper argues that the bias is chiefly produced by the combination of substantial uncertainty about the net value of future fuel savings and the loss aversion of typical consumers. This framework relies on the theory of contextdependent preferences. The uncertainty-loss aversion bias against energy efficiency is quantifiable, making it potentially correctible by policy measures. The welfare economics of such policies remains unresolved. Data on the costs of increased fuel economy of new passenger cars, taken from a National Research Council study, illustrate how an apparently cost-effective increase in energy efficiency would be uninteresting to lossaverse consumers.

Greene, David L [ORNL

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

Ghanem, Roger G [University of Southern California

2014-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

279

Real-time Information, Uncertainty and Quantum Feedback Control  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Feedback is the core concept in cybernetics and its effective use has made great success in but not limited to the fields of engineering, biology, and computer science. When feedback is used to quantum systems, two major types of feedback control protocols including coherent feedback control (CFC) and measurement-based feedback control (MFC) have been developed. In this paper, we compare the two types of quantum feedback control protocols by focusing on the real-time information used in the feedback loop and the capability in dealing with parameter uncertainty. An equivalent relationship is established between quantum CFC and non-selective quantum MFC in the form of operator-sum representation. Using several examples of quantum feedback control, we show that quantum MFC can theoretically achieve better performance than quantum CFC in stabilizing a quantum state and dealing with Hamiltonian parameter uncertainty. The results enrich understanding of the relative advantages between quantum MFC and quantum CFC, and can provide useful information in choosing suitable feedback protocols for quantum systems.

Bo Qi; Daoyi Dong; Chunlin Chen; Lijun Liu; Zairong Xi

2014-09-10T23:59:59.000Z

280

Data Filtering Impact on PV Degradation Rates and Uncertainty (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To sustain the commercial success of photovoltaics (PV) it becomes vital to know how power output decreases with time. In order to predict power delivery, degradation rates must be determined accurately. Data filtering, any data treatment assessment of long-term field behavior, is discussed as part of a more comprehensive uncertainty analysis and can be one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in long-term performance studies. Several distinct filtering methods such as outlier removal and inclusion of only sunny days on several different metrics such as PVUSA, performance ratio, DC power to plane-of-array irradiance ratio, uncorrected, and temperature-corrected were examined. PVUSA showed the highest sensitivity while temperature-corrected power over irradiance ratio was found to be the least sensitive to data filtering conditions. Using this ratio it is demonstrated that quantification of degradation rates with a statistical accuracy of +/- 0.2%/year within 4 years of field data is possible on two crystalline silicon and two thin-film systems.

Jordan, D. C.; Kurtz, S. R.

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Measurement uncertainty from In-Situ gamma spectroscopy of nonhomogeneous containers and from Laboratory Assay  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During a D and D or ER process containers of radioactive waste are normally generated. The activity can commonly be determined by gamma spectroscopy, but frequently the measurement conditions are not conducive to precise sample-detector geometries, and usually the radioactive material is not in a homogeneous distribution. What is the best method to accurately assay these containers - sampling followed by laboratory analysis, or in-situ spectroscopy? What is the uncertainty of the final result? To help answer these questions, the Canberra tool ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator [IUE] was used to mathematically simulate and evaluate several different measurement scenarios and to estimate the uncertainty of the measurement and the sampling process. Several representative containers and source distributions were mathematically defined and evaluated to determine the in-situ measurement uncertainty due to the sample non-uniformity. In the First example a typical field situation requiring the measurement of 200-liter drums was evaluated. A sensitivity analysis was done to show which parameters contributed the most to the uncertainty. Then an efficiency uncertainty calculation was performed. In the Second example, a group of 200-liter drums with various types of non-homogeneous distributions was created, and them measurements were simulated with different detector arrangements to see how the uncertainty varied. In the Third example, a truck filled with non-uniform soil was first measured with multiple in-situ detectors to determine the measurement uncertainty. Then composite samples were extracted and the sampling uncertainty computed for comparison to the field measurement uncertainty. (authors)

Bronson, F. [CHP, Canberra Industries, Meriden CT (United States); Atrashkevich, V. [Stroiteley, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for ELECTRA burn-up calculations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The European Lead-Cooled Training Reactor (ELECTRA) has been proposed as a training reactor for fast systems within the Swedish nuclear program. It is a low-power fast reactor cooled by pure liquid lead. In this work, we propagate the uncertainties in Pu-239 transport data to uncertainties in the fuel inventory of ELECTRA during the reactor life using the Total Monte Carlo approach (TMC). Within the TENDL project the nuclear models input parameters were randomized within their uncertainties and 740 Pu-239 nuclear data libraries were generated. These libraries are used as inputs to reactor codes, in our case SERPENT, to perform uncertainty analysis of nuclear reactor inventory during burn-up. The uncertainty in the inventory determines uncertainties in: the long-term radio-toxicity, the decay heat, the evolution of reactivity parameters, gas pressure and volatile fission product content. In this work, a methodology called fast TMC is utilized, which reduces the overall calculation time. The uncertainty in the long-term radiotoxicity, decay heat, gas pressure and volatile fission products were found to be insignificant. However, the uncertainty of some minor actinides were observed to be rather large and therefore their impact on multiple recycling should be investigated further. It was also found that, criticality benchmarks can be used to reduce inventory uncertainties due to nuclear data. Further studies are needed to include fission yield uncertainties, more isotopes, and a larger set of benchmarks.

H. Sjstrand; E. Alhassan; J. Duan; C. Gustavsson; A. Koning; S. Pomp; D. Rochman; M. sterlund

2013-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

283

Method to Calculate Uncertainty Estimate of Measuring Shortwave Solar Irradiance using Thermopile and Semiconductor Solar Radiometers  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The uncertainty of measuring solar irradiance is fundamentally important for solar energy and atmospheric science applications. Without an uncertainty statement, the quality of a result, model, or testing method cannot be quantified, the chain of traceability is broken, and confidence cannot be maintained in the measurement. Measurement results are incomplete and meaningless without a statement of the estimated uncertainty with traceability to the International System of Units (SI) or to another internationally recognized standard. This report explains how to use International Guidelines of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) to calculate such uncertainty. The report also shows that without appropriate corrections to solar measuring instruments (solar radiometers), the uncertainty of measuring shortwave solar irradiance can exceed 4% using present state-of-the-art pyranometers and 2.7% using present state-of-the-art pyrheliometers. Finally, the report demonstrates that by applying the appropriate corrections, uncertainties may be reduced by at least 50%. The uncertainties, with or without the appropriate corrections might not be compatible with the needs of solar energy and atmospheric science applications; yet, this report may shed some light on the sources of uncertainties and the means to reduce overall uncertainty in measuring solar irradiance.

Reda, I.

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

An Information-Theoretic Measure of Uncertainty due to Quantum and Thermal Fluctuations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study an information-theoretic measure of uncertainty for quantum systems. It is the Shannon information $I$ of the phase space probability distribution $\\la z | \\rho | z \\ra $, where $|z \\ra $ are coherent states, and $\\rho$ is the density matrix. The uncertainty principle is expressed in this measure as $I \\ge 1$. For a harmonic oscillator in a thermal state, $I$ coincides with von Neumann entropy, $- \\Tr(\\rho \\ln \\rho)$, in the high-temperature regime, but unlike entropy, it is non-zero at zero temperature. It therefore supplies a non-trivial measure of uncertainty due to both quantum and thermal fluctuations. We study $I$ as a function of time for a class of non-equilibrium quantum systems consisting of a distinguished system coupled to a heat bath. We derive an evolution equation for $I$. For the harmonic oscillator, in the Fokker-Planck regime, we show that $I$ increases monotonically. For more general Hamiltonians, $I$ settles down to monotonic increase in the long run, but may suffer an initial decrease for certain initial states that undergo ``reassembly'' (the opposite of quantum spreading). Our main result is to prove, for linear systems, that $I$ at each moment of time has a lower bound $I_t^{min}$, over all possible initial states. This bound is a generalization of the uncertainty principle to include thermal fluctuations in non-equilibrium systems, and represents the least amount of uncertainty the system must suffer after evolution in the presence of an environment for time $t$.

Arlen Anderson; Jonathan J. Halliwell

1993-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

285

Effect of fluctuation measures on the uncertainty relations between two observables: Different measures lead to opposite conclusions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We show within a very simple framework that different measures of fluctuations lead to uncertainty relations resulting in contradictory conclusions. More specifically we focus on Tsallis and Renyi entropic uncertainty relations and we get that the minimum joint uncertainty states for some fluctuation measures are the maximum joint uncertainty states of other fluctuation measures, and vice versa.

Luis, Alfredo [Departamento de Optica, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, E-28040 Madrid (Spain)

2011-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

286

Science based stockpile stewardship, uncertainty quantification, and fission fragment beams  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stewardship of this nation's nuclear weapons is predicated on developing a fundamental scientific understanding of the physics and chemistry required to describe weapon performance without the need to resort to underground nuclear testing and to predict expected future performance as a result of intended or unintended modifications. In order to construct more reliable models, underground nuclear test data is being reanalyzed in novel ways. The extent to which underground experimental data can be matched with simulations is one measure of the credibility of our capability to predict weapon performance. To improve the interpretation of these experiments with quantified uncertainties, improved nuclear data is required. As an example, the fission yield of a device was often determined by measuring fission products. Conversion of the measured fission products to yield was accomplished through explosion code calculations (models) and a good set of nuclear reaction cross-sections. Because of the unique high-fluence environment of an exploding nuclear weapon, many reactions occurred on radioactive nuclides, for which only theoretically calculated cross-sections are available. Inverse kinematics reactions at CARIBU offer the opportunity to measure cross-sections on unstable neutron-rich fission fragments and thus improve the quality of the nuclear reaction cross-section sets. One of the fission products measured was {sup 95}Zr, the accumulation of all mass 95 fission products of Y, Sr, Rb and Kr (see Fig. 1). Subsequent neutron-induced reactions on these short lived fission products were assumed to cancel out - in other words, the destruction of mass 95 nuclides was more or less equal to the production of mass 95 nuclides. If a {sup 95}Sr was destroyed by an (n,2n) reaction it was also produced by (n,2n) reactions on {sup 96}Sr, for example. However, since these nuclides all have fairly short half-lives (seconds to minutes or even less), no experimental nuclear reaction cross-sections exist, and only theoretically modeled cross-sections are available. Inverse kinematics reactions at CARIBU offer the opportunity, should the beam intensity be sufficient, to measure cross-sections on a few important nuclides in order to benchmark the theoretical calculations and significantly improve the nuclear data. The nuclides in Fig. 1 are prioritized by importance factor and displayed in stoplight colors, green the highest and red the lowest priority.

Stoyer, M A; McNabb, D; Burke, J; Bernstein, L A; Wu, C Y

2009-09-14T23:59:59.000Z

287

Uncertainty analyses for radiological assessments of St. Louis FUSRAP Sites  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty analyses were performed in conjunction with radiological assessments of the Formerly Utilized Site Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) St. Louis Downtown Site (SLDS), the Airport Site (SLAPS), and the Ball Field Site (SLBFS). Contaminants of concern at each location are natural uranium, radium, {sup 232}Th, and {sup 230}Th. The SLDS was used for uranium and thorium ore processing and includes an area of 45 acres. The SLAPS covers 22 acres and was used as a staging area for materials from the SLDS. Contaminants on the SLEFS were dispersed from the SLAPS, which involves an area of 80 acres. Significant levels of uranium contamination range from near zero to several thousand pCi/g and extend to about 20 feet in depth in a few locations at SLAPS and SLDS. Significant areas of peak radium and thorium concentrations are several hundred pCi/g with similar ranges in depth. Peak concentrations correspond to high grade ore. Radium and thorium constitute a greater radiological hazard than does uranium at all three locations. In order to satisfy the Environmental Protection Agency guideline for a lifetime risk of less than 10{sup -4}, the maximally exposed individual must receive less than about 4 mrem y{sup -1} if one assumes a risk of 5% per Sv. Based on the plant ingestion pathway, residual {sup 238}U, {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, and {sup 230}Th, concentrations of 400, 2, 4, and 40 pCi g{sup -1} at SLDS result in a 10{sup -4} lifetime risk with a 95% confidence level. Slightly different results were obtained for SLAPS and SLBFS. If more pathways are considered, such as radon, these values are even lower. Residual contamination levels could be increased by a factor of 25 if the historical Department of Energy limit of 100 mrem y{sup -1} is acceptable. The volume of contaminated soil that presents a 10{sup -4} lifetime risk is about 500,000 yd{sup 3}. The volume of soil contaminated to greater than 15 pCi g{sup -1} of each radionuclide is about a factor of ten less.

Miller, L.F.; Spencer, K.M.; White, D.E. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Computational Methods for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Interest in the sensitivity methods that were developed and widely used in the 1970s (the FORSS methodology at ORNL among others) has increased recently as a result of potential use in the area of criticality safety data validation procedures to define computational bias, uncertainties and area(s) of applicability. Functional forms of the resulting sensitivity coefficients can be used as formal parameters in the determination of applicability of benchmark experiments to their corresponding industrial application areas. In order for these techniques to be generally useful to the criticality safety practitioner, the procedures governing their use had to be updated and simplified. This paper will describe the resulting sensitivity analysis tools that have been generated for potential use by the criticality safety community.

Broadhead, B.L.; Childs, R.L.; Rearden, B.T.

1999-09-20T23:59:59.000Z

289

Uncertainty analysis for probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations in LBB applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the NRC`s Short Cracks in Piping and Piping Welds Program at Battelle, a probabilistic methodology was developed to conduct fracture evaluations of circumferentially cracked pipes for application to leak-rate detection. Later, in the IPIRG-2 program, several parameters that may affect leak-before-break and other pipe flaw evaluations were identified. This paper presents new results from several uncertainty analyses to evaluate the effects of normal operating stresses, normal plus safe-shutdown earthquake stresses, off-centered cracks, restraint of pressure-induced bending, and dynamic and cyclic loading rates on the conditional failure probability of pipes. systems in BWR and PWR. For each parameter, the sensitivity to conditional probability of failure and hence, its importance on probabilistic leak-before-break evaluations were determined.

Rahman, S.; Ghadiali, N.; Wilkowski, G.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Quantum root-mean-square error and measurement uncertainty relations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Recent years have witnessed a controversy over Heisenberg's famous error-disturbance relation. Here we resolve the conflict by way of an analysis of the possible conceptualizations of measurement error and disturbance in quantum mechanics. We discuss two approaches to adapting the classic notion of root-mean-square error to quantum measurements. One is based on the concept of noise operator; its natural operational content is that of a mean deviation of the values of two observables measured jointly, and thus its applicability is limited to cases where such joint measurements are available. The second error measure quantifies the differences between two probability distributions obtained in separate runs of measurements and is of unrestricted applicability. We show that there are no nontrivial unconditional joint-measurement bounds for {\\em state-dependent} errors in the conceptual framework discussed here, while Heisenberg-type measurement uncertainty relations for {\\em state-independent} errors have been proven.

Paul Busch; Pekka Lahti; Reinhard F Werner

2014-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

291

Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications o...

Cucoanes, Andi; Cabrera, Anatael; Fallot, Muriel; Onillon, Anthony; Obolensky, Michel; Yermia, Frederic

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Savannah River Site TEP-SET tests uncertainty report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document presents a measurement uncertainty analysis for the instruments used for the Phase I, II and III of the Savannah River One-Fourth Linear Scale, One-Sixth Sector, Tank/Muff/Pump (TMP) Separate Effects Tests (SET) Experiment Series. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory conducted the tests for the Savannah River Site (SRS). The tests represented a range of hydraulic conditions and geometries that bound anticipated Large Break Loss of Coolant Accidents in the SRS reactors. Important hydraulic phenomena were identified from experiments. In addition, code calculations will be benchmarked from these experiments. The experimental system includes the following measurement groups: coolant density; absolute and differential pressures; turbine flowmeters (liquid phase); thermal flowmeters (gas phase); ultrasonic liquid level meters; temperatures; pump torque; pump speed; moderator tank liquid inventory via a load cells measurement; and relative humidity meters. This document also analyzes data acquisition system including the presampling filters as it relates to these measurements.

Taylor, D.J.N.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

The Low energy structure of the Nucleon-Nucleon interaction: Statistical vs Systematic Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We analyze the low energy NN interaction by extracting threshold parameters uncertainties from the coupled channel effective range expansion up to j $\\leq$ 5. This is based on the Granada-2013 database where a statistically meaningful partial wave analysis comprising a total of 6713 np and pp published scattering data from 1950 till 2013 below pion production threshold has been made. We find that for threshold parameters systematic uncertainties are generally at least an order of magnitude larger than statistical uncertainties.

R. Navarro Perez; J. E. Amaro; E. Ruiz Arriola

2014-12-12T23:59:59.000Z

294

Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

ADJUSTMENT COSTS, LEARNING-BY-DOING, AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We consider a variety of vintage capital models of a firm's choice of technology under uncertainty in the presence of adjustment costs and technology-specific learning. ...

Pavlova, Anna

2003-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

296

Uncertainty for Satellite and Station Solar Data in the Updated NSRDB  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Solar Resource Assessment Workshop, Denver CO, Oct 29, 2008 presentation: Uncertainty for Satellite and Station Solar Data in the Updated NSRDB,

Myers, D. R.

2008-10-29T23:59:59.000Z

297

Epistemologies of uncertainty : governing CO2 capture and storage science and technology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis progresses from a science and technology studies (STS) perspective to consider the ways that expert stakeholders perceive and communicate uncertainties and risks attached to carbon ...

Evar, Benjamin

2014-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

298

Optimal Capacity Investment, and Pricing Across International Markets Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Duopoly Competition.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In this dissertation we investigate joint optimal capacity investment, pricing and production decisions for a multinational manufacturer who faces exchange rate uncertainties. We consider a (more)

Ahmed, Anas A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for improving design robustness and reliability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Engineering systems of the modern day are increasingly complex, often involving numerous components, countless mathematical models, and large, globally-distributed design teams. These features all contribute uncertainty ...

He, Qinxian, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Uncertainty Analysis of Certified Photovoltaic Measurements at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Discusses NREL Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group's procedures to achieve lowest practical uncertainty in measuring PV performance with respect to reference conditions.

Emery, K.

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

E-Print Network 3.0 - avt-147 computational uncertainty Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Imaging Institute, University of Utah Collection: Computer Technologies and Information Sciences 6 Unified Uncertainty Analysis for Simulation-Based Engineering Science...

302

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical uncertainty propagation Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and Information Sciences 2 CE 473573 Groundwater Introduction to uncertainty analysis and error propagation Summary: CE 473573 Groundwater Fall 2011 Introduction to...

303

Characterization of HVAC operation uncertainty in EnergyPlus AHU modules.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This study addresses 5 uncertainties that exist in the operation of HVAC systems, which will presumably affect the actual energy consumption of the HVAC system (more)

Sui, Di

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. This development has been supported by a sequence of performance assessments (PAs) carried out by Sandla National Laboratories (SNL) to assess what is known about the WIPP and to provide .tidance for future DOE research and development activities. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression techniques play an important role in these PAs by providing an assessment of the uncertainty in important analysis outcomes and identi~ing the sources of thk uncertainty. Performance assessments for the WIPP are conceptually and computational] y interesting due to regulatory requirements to assess and display the effects of both stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, where stochastic uncertainty arises from the possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period associated with the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arises from an inability to unambi-aously characterize the many models and associated parameters required in a PA for the WIPP. The interplay between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty are discussed and illustrated in the context of a recent PA carried out by SNL to support an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste.

Helton, J.C.

1998-12-17T23:59:59.000Z

305

MASS MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY FOR PLUTONIUM ALIQUOTS ASSAYED BY CONTROLLED-POTENTIAL COULOMETRY  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Minimizing plutonium measurement uncertainty is essential to nuclear material control and international safeguards. In 2005, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) published ISO 12183 'Controlled-potential coulometric assay of plutonium', 2nd edition. ISO 12183:2005 recommends a target of {+-}0.01% for the mass of original sample in the aliquot because it is a critical assay variable. Mass measurements in radiological containment were evaluated and uncertainties estimated. The uncertainty estimate for the mass measurement also includes uncertainty in correcting for buoyancy effects from air acting as a fluid and from decreased pressure of heated air from the specific heat of the plutonium isotopes.

Holland, M.; Cordaro, J.

2009-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

306

Long-Term Planning for Nuclear Energy Systems Under Deep Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

scientific resources for decommissioning a nuclear facility.t) i Decommissioning Decommissioning of a nuclear facilityDecommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementa- tion, Uncertainties. Nuclear

Kim, Lance Kyungwoo

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

E-Print Network 3.0 - advanced lmrs uncertainties Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

lmrs uncertainties Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 Semiconductor Nanowire Optical Antenna Solar Absorbers Summary: Laboratory for Advanced Materials, Stanford University,...

308

Uncertainty Estimate for the Outdoor Calibration of Solar Pyranometers: A Metrologist Perspective  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pyranometers are used outdoors to measure solar irradiance. By design, this type of radiometer can measure the; total hemispheric (global) or diffuse (sky) irradiance when the detector is unshaded or shaded from the sun disk, respectively. These measurements are used in a variety of applications including solar energy conversion, atmospheric studies, agriculture, and materials science. Proper calibration of pyranometers is essential to ensure measurement quality. This paper describes a step-by-step method for calculating and reporting the uncertainty of the calibration, using the guidelines of the ISO 'Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement' or GUM, that is applied to the pyranometer; calibration procedures used at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The NREL technique; characterizes a responsivity function of a pyranometer as a function of the zenith angle, as well as reporting a single; calibration responsivity value for a zenith angle of 45 ..deg... The uncertainty analysis shows that a lower uncertainty can be achieved by using the response function of a pyranometer determined as a function of zenith angle, in lieu of just using; the average value at 45..deg... By presenting the contribution of each uncertainty source to the total uncertainty; users will be able to troubleshoot and improve their calibration process. The uncertainty analysis method can also be used to determine the uncertainty of different calibration techniques and applications, such as deriving the uncertainty of field measurements.

Reda, I.; Myers, D.; Stoffel, T.

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Recoilless Resonance Absorption of Tritium Antineutrinos and Time-Energy Uncertainty Relation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We discuss neutrino oscillations in an experiment with M\\"ossbauer recoilless resonance absorbtion of tritium antineutrinos, proposed recently by Raghavan. We demonstrate that small energy uncertainty of antineutrinos which ensures a large resonance absorption cross section is in a conflict with the energy uncertainty which, according to the time-energy uncertainty relation, is necessary for neutrino oscillations to happen. The search for neutrino oscillations in the M\\"ossbauer neutrino experiment would be an important test of the applicability of the time-energy uncertainty relation to a newly discovered interference phenomenon.

S. M. Bilenky

2007-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

310

Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

CALiPER Exploratory Study: Accounting for Uncertainty in Lumen Measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With a well-defined and shared understanding of uncertainty in lumen measurements, testing laboratories can better evaluate their processes, contributing to greater consistency and credibility of lighting testing a key component of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercially Available LED Product Evaluation and Reporting (CALiPER) program. Reliable lighting testing is a crucial underlying factor contributing toward the success of many energy-efficient lighting efforts, such as the DOE GATEWAY demonstrations, Lighting Facts Label, ENERGY STAR energy efficient lighting programs, and many others. Uncertainty in measurements is inherent to all testing methodologies, including photometric and other lighting-related testing. Uncertainty exists for all equipment, processes, and systems of measurement in individual as well as combined ways. A major issue with testing and the resulting accuracy of the tests is the uncertainty of the complete process. Individual equipment uncertainties are typically identified, but their relative value in practice and their combined value with other equipment and processes in the same test are elusive concepts, particularly for complex types of testing such as photometry. The total combined uncertainty of a measurement result is important for repeatable and comparative measurements for light emitting diode (LED) products in comparison with other technologies as well as competing products. This study provides a detailed and step-by-step method for determining uncertainty in lumen measurements, working closely with related standards efforts and key industry experts. This report uses the structure proposed in the Guide to Uncertainty Measurements (GUM) for evaluating and expressing uncertainty in measurements. The steps of the procedure are described and a spreadsheet format adapted for integrating sphere and goniophotometric uncertainty measurements is provided for entering parameters, ordering the information, calculating intermediate values and, finally, obtaining expanded uncertainties. Using this basis and examining each step of the photometric measurement and calibration methods, mathematical uncertainty models are developed. Determination of estimated values of input variables is discussed. Guidance is provided for the evaluation of the standard uncertainties of each input estimate, covariances associated with input estimates and the calculation of the result measurements. With this basis, the combined uncertainty of the measurement results and finally, the expanded uncertainty can be determined.

Bergman, Rolf; Paget, Maria L.; Richman, Eric E.

2011-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

312

Optimal Extraction of Cosmological Information from Supernova Datain the Presence of Calibration Uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a new technique to extract the cosmological information from high-redshift supernova data in the presence of calibration errors and extinction due to dust. While in the traditional technique the distance modulus of each supernova is determined separately, in our approach we determine all distance moduli at once, in a process that achieves a significant degree of self-calibration. The result is a much reduced sensitivity of the cosmological parameters to the calibration uncertainties. As an example, for a strawman mission similar to that outlined in the SNAP satellite proposal, the increased precision obtained with the new approach is roughly equivalent to a factor of five decrease in the calibration uncertainty.

Kim, Alex G.; Miquel, Ramon

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

313

Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, w...

McDonnell, J D; Higdon, D; Sarich, J; Wild, S M; Nazarewicz, W

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Uncertainty in Resilience to Climate Change in India and Indian States  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.

Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

2008-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

316

A QUALITATIVE APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR THE PWR ROD EJECTION ACCIDENT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to understand best-estimate calculations of the peak local fuel enthalpy during a rod ejection accident, an assessment of the uncertainty has been completed. The analysis took into account point kinetics parameters which would be available from a three-dimensional core model and engineering judgment as to the uncertainty in those parameters. Sensitivity studies to those parameters were carried out using the best-estimate code PARCS. The results showed that the uncertainty (corresponding to one standard deviation) in local fuel enthalpy would be determined primarily by the uncertainty in ejected rod worth and delayed neutron fraction. For an uncertainty in the former of 8% and the latter of 5%, the uncertainty in fuel enthalpy varied from 51% to 69% for control rod worth varying from $1.2 to $1.0. Also considered in the uncertainty were the errors introduced by uncertainties in the Doppler reactivity coefficient, the fuel pellet specific heat, and assembly and fuel pin peaking factors.

DIAMOND,D.J.; ARONSON,A.; YANG,C.

2000-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

317

TWO-SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRICITY MARKETS: ZONAL AGGREGATION UNDER NETWORK UNCERTAINTY AND MARKET POWER  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TWO-SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRICITY MARKETS: ZONAL AGGREGATION UNDER NETWORK UNCERTAINTY designs adopted or proposed for many electricity markets around the world. In particular, we examine-SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRICITY MARKETS: ZONAL AGGREGATION UNDER NETWORK UNCERTAINTY AND MARKET POWER RAJNISH

318

Mixed Aleatory/Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Hypersonic Flows via Gradient-Based Optimization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mixed Aleatory/Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Hypersonic Flows via Gradient/aleatory uncertainties is demonstrated within the context of hypersonic flows. Specifically, this work focuses in which experimental data is difficult or impossible to obtain, as is the case with hypersonic flows

Anitescu, Mihai

319

Software Reliability Estimation under Uncertainty: Generalization of the Method of Moments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Software Reliability Estimation under Uncertainty: Generalization of the Method of Moments Katerina Traditionally, reliability models of component-based software systems compute the point estimate of system reli affect the estimates of system reliability. In this paper we focus on uncertainty analysis in software

Goseva-Popstojanova, Katerina

320

Offshore Wind Turbine Design: Addressing Uncertainty Drivers Sten Frandsen Niels Jacob Tarp-Johansen  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Offshore Wind Turbine Design: Addressing Uncertainty Drivers Sten Frandsen Niels Jacob Tarp@civil.auc.dk leje@elsam-eng.com Abstract: Current offshore wind turbine design methods have matured to a 1st identification of the most important uncertainty drivers specific for offshore wind turbine design loads

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

A novel branch and bound algorithm for optimal development of gas fields under uncertainty in reserves  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in reserves Vikas Goel , Ignacio E. Grossmann Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University and operational planning for development of gas fields under uncertainty in gas reserves. Assuming uncertainties models for planning in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. A major challenge

Grossmann, Ignacio E.

322

CAPACITY INVESTMENT UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: THE ROLE OF IMPORTS IN THE U.S. CEMENT INDUSTRY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

varies across markets. In the presence of uncertain demand, capacity choices are shown theoreticallyCAPACITY INVESTMENT UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: THE ROLE OF IMPORTS IN THE U.S. CEMENT INDUSTRY Guy://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu #12;Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

323

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, The uncertain future of climate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by anthropogenic greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. The conclusions of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 difficult. In addition, the uncertainty level re- garding future climate evolution has not decreased signifi reasons motivate us to (a) revisit here a key cause for the persisting uncertainties, in order

Ghil, Michael

324

A Zero-Sum Electromagnetic Evader-Interrogator Differential Game with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Zero-Sum Electromagnetic Evader-Interrogator Differential Game with Uncertainty H.T. Banks-8212 In Memoriam of Prof. L. D. Berkovitz February 21, 2011 Abstract We consider dynamic electromagnetic evasion23, 49N70, 49N90, 65M32, 68T37, 60J70. Key Words: Electromagnetic evasion-pursuit, uncertainty

325

Quasiparticle random phase approximation uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of neutrinoless double beta decay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The variances and covariances associated to the nuclear matrix elements (NME) of neutrinoless double beta decay are estimated within the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA). It is shown that correlated NME uncertainties play an important role in the comparison of neutrinoless double beta decay rates for different nuclei, and that they are degenerate with the uncertainty in the reconstructed Majorana neutrino mass.

Amand Faessler; G. L. Fogli; E. Lisi; V. Rodin; A. M. Rotunno; F. Simkovic

2009-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

326

The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty Mort Webster n  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty Mort Webster n , Sergey Keywords: Climate change Emissions trading Uncertainty a b s t r a c t This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing on a here-to-fore neglected component; its value as a hedge against

327

Quantification of Variability and Uncertainty in Hourly NOx Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to quantify variability and uncertainty for NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants. Data for hourly NOx emissions, heat rate, gross load and capacity factor of 32 units from 9 different power plants were analyzed Uncertainty, Variability, Emission Factors, Coal-Fired Power Plants, NOx emissions, Regression Models

Frey, H. Christopher

328

Sustainable distributed biodiesel manufacturing under uncertainty: An interval-parameter-programming-based approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sustainable distributed biodiesel manufacturing under uncertainty: An interval A sophisticated biodiesel manufacturing study demonstrated methodological efficacy. a r t i c l e i n f o Article Simulation Uncertainty a b s t r a c t Biodiesel, a clean-burning alternative fuel, can be produced using

Huang, Yinlun

329

Application of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis to a Kinetic Model for Enzymatic Biodiesel Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Application of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis to a Kinetic Model for Enzymatic Biodiesel benefits of using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the kinetics of enzymatic biodiesel production, Monte-Carlo Simulations, Enzymatic Biodiesel 1. INTRODUCTION In order to determine the optimal

Mosegaard, Klaus

330

The Interaction Between Safety Culture and Uncertainty Over Device Behaviour: The Limitations and Hazards of Telemedicine  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Interaction Between Safety Culture and Uncertainty Over Device Behaviour: The Limitations show that uncertainty about device behaviour can undermine attempts to establish a new `safety culture then they frequently resort to coping strategies. This threatens patient safety in many healthcare applications

Johnson, Chris

331

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Guide the Development of Accelerated Stress Tests (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extrapolation of accelerated testing to the long-term results expected in the field has uncertainty associated with the acceleration factors and the range of possible stresses in the field. When multiple stresses (such as temperature and humidity) can be used to increase the acceleration, the uncertainty may be reduced according to which stress factors are used to accelerate the degradation.

Kempe, M.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration Man-Keun Kim  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration By Man-Keun Kim Post Doctoral Fellow Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration Abstract The effect of various stochastic factors like weather% to 10% for the East Texas region. #12;3 Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration 1

McCarl, Bruce A.

333

Addressing model bias and uncertainty in three dimensional groundwater transport forecasts for a physical aquifer experiment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Addressing model bias and uncertainty in three dimensional groundwater transport forecasts, and D. M. Rizzo (2008), Addressing model bias and uncertainty in three dimensional groundwater transport. Introduction [2] Eigbe et al. [1998] provide an excellent review of groundwater applications of the linear

Vermont, University of

334

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Tighter quantum uncertainty relations follow from a general probabilistic bound  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty relations (URs) like the Heisenberg-Robertson or the time-energy UR are often considered to be hallmarks of quantum theory. Here, a simple derivation of these URs is presented based on a single classical inequality from estimation theory, a Cram\\'er-Rao-like bound. The Heisenberg-Robertson UR is then obtained by using the Born rule and the Schr\\"odinger equation. This allows a clear separtion of the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics from the Hilbert space structure and the dynamical law. It also simplifies the interpretation of the bound. In addition, the Heisenberg-Robertson UR is tightened for mixed states by replacing one variance by the so-called quantum Fisher information. Thermal states of Hamiltonians with evenly-gapped energy levels are shown to saturate the tighter bound for natural choices of the operators. This example is further extended to Gaussian states of a harmonic oscillator. For many-qubit systems, we illustrate the interplay between entanglement and the structure of the operators that saturate the UR with spin-squeezed states and Dicke states.

Florian Frwis; Nicolas Gisin

2015-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

336

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Remote Clocks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The observed cosmic acceleration was attributed to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a complete wrong result and leads to a severe fine-tuning. To solve the problem, the exact meaning of time in quantum mechanics is reexamined. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of physical clock. We find that synchronization of two spatially separated clocks can not be precisely realized at quantum level. There is an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of remote simultaneity, which implies an apparent vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$ at leading order, where $L_{P}$ and $L_{H}$ are the Planck and Hubble scale cutoffs. The fraction of the dark energy is given by $\\Omega_{de}=\\frac{2}{\\pi}$ at leading order approximation, which does not evolve with time, so it is "always" comparable to the critical density. This theory is consistent with current cosmic observations.

M. J. Luo

2014-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

337

Tighter quantum uncertainty relations follow from a general probabilistic bound  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty relations (URs) like the Heisenberg-Robertson or the time-energy UR are often considered to be hallmarks of quantum theory. Here, a simple derivation of these URs is presented based on a single classical inequality from estimation theory, a Cram\\'er-Rao-like bound. The Heisenberg-Robertson UR is then obtained by using the Born rule and the Schr\\"odinger equation. This allows a clear separtion of the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics from the Hilbert space structure and the dynamical law. It also simplifies the interpretation of the bound. In addition, the Heisenberg-Robertson UR is tightened for mixed states by replacing one variance by the so-called quantum Fisher information. Thermal states of well-known Hamiltonians are shown to saturate the tighter bound for natural choices of the operators. Last, this bound establishes links to inequalities for spin-squeezing and multi-particle entanglement and leads to an entire class of inequalities for entanglement detection.

Florian Frwis; Nicolas Gisin

2014-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

338

Calibration under uncertainty for finite element models of masonry monuments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Historical unreinforced masonry buildings often include features such as load bearing unreinforced masonry vaults and their supporting framework of piers, fill, buttresses, and walls. The masonry vaults of such buildings are among the most vulnerable structural components and certainly among the most challenging to analyze. The versatility of finite element (FE) analyses in incorporating various constitutive laws, as well as practically all geometric configurations, has resulted in the widespread use of the FE method for the analysis of complex unreinforced masonry structures over the last three decades. However, an FE model is only as accurate as its input parameters, and there are two fundamental challenges while defining FE model input parameters: (1) material properties and (2) support conditions. The difficulties in defining these two aspects of the FE model arise from the lack of knowledge in the common engineering understanding of masonry behavior. As a result, engineers are unable to define these FE model input parameters with certainty, and, inevitably, uncertainties are introduced to the FE model.

Atamturktur, Sezer,; Hemez, Francois,; Unal, Cetin

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

J. D. McDonnell; N. Schunck; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. M. Wild; W. Nazarewicz

2015-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

340

Need to understand "Uncertainty Assessment" in the system development modeling process  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the early stage of software life cycle project manager are inefficient to estimate the effort, schedule, cost estimation and its development approach .This in turn, confuses the manager to bid effectively on software project and choose incorrect development approach. That will directly effect on productivity cycle and increase level of uncertainty. This becomes a strong cause of project failure. So to avoid such problem if we know level and sources of uncertainty in model design, It will directive the developer to design accurate software cost and schedule estimation. Which are essential for software project success . However once the required efforts have estimated, little is done to recalibrate and reduce the uncertainty of the initial estimates. This paper demonstrates terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modeling process, Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly complementary) methods commonly used in uncertainty assessment its interaction w...

Kardile, Vilas Vasantrao

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Characterization of subjective uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of subjective uncertainty is discussed, including assignment of distributions, uncertain variables selected for inclusion in analysis, correlation control, sample size, statistical confidence on mean complementary cumulative distribution functions, generation of Latin hypercube samples, sensitivity analysis techniques, and scenarios involving stochastic and subjective uncertainty.

HELTON,JON CRAIG; MARTELL,MARY-ALENA; TIERNEY,MARTIN S.

2000-05-18T23:59:59.000Z

342

Managing Model Data Introduced Uncertainties in Simulator Predictions for Generation IV Systems via Optimum Experimental Design  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An optimization technique has been developed to select optimized experimental design specifications to produce data specifically designed to be assimilated to optimize a given reactor concept. Data from the optimized experiment is assimilated to generate posteriori uncertainties on the reactor concepts core attributes from which the design responses are computed. The reactor concept is then optimized with the new data to realize cost savings by reducing margin. The optimization problem iterates until an optimal experiment is found to maximize the savings. A new generation of innovative nuclear reactor designs, in particular fast neutron spectrum recycle reactors, are being considered for the application of closing the nuclear fuel cycle in the future. Safe and economical design of these reactors will require uncertainty reduction in basic nuclear data which are input to the reactor design. These data uncertainty propagate to design responses which in turn require the reactor designer to incorporate additional safety margin into the design, which often increases the cost of the reactor. Therefore basic nuclear data needs to be improved and this is accomplished through experimentation. Considering the high cost of nuclear experiments, it is desired to have an optimized experiment which will provide the data needed for uncertainty reduction such that a reactor design concept can meet its target accuracies or to allow savings to be realized by reducing the margin required due to uncertainty propagated from basic nuclear data. However, this optimization is coupled to the reactor design itself because with improved data the reactor concept can be re-optimized itself. It is thus desired to find the experiment that gives the best optimized reactor design. Methods are first established to model both the reactor concept and the experiment and to efficiently propagate the basic nuclear data uncertainty through these models to outputs. The representativity of the experiment to the design concept is quantitatively determined. A technique is then established to assimilate this data and produce posteriori uncertainties on key attributes and responses of the design concept. Several experiment perturbations based on engineering judgment are used to demonstrate these methods and also serve as an initial generation of the optimization problem. Finally, an optimization technique is developed which will simultaneously arrive at an optimized experiment to produce an optimized reactor design. Solution of this problem is made possible by the use of the simulated annealing algorithm for solution of optimization problems. The optimization examined in this work is based on maximizing the reactor cost savings associated with the modified design made possible by using the design margin gained through reduced basic nuclear data uncertainties. Cost values for experiment design specifications and reactor design specifications are established and used to compute a total savings by comparing the posteriori reactor cost to the a priori cost plus the cost of the experiment. The optimized solution arrives at a maximized cost savings.

Paul J. Turinsky; Hany S.Abdel-Khalik; Tracy E. Stover

2011-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

343

Results for Phase I of the IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) has its own peculiarities, coated particle design, large graphite quantities, different materials and high temperatures that also require other simulation requirements. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the HTR-PM (INET, China). This report summarizes the contributions of the HTGR Methods Simulation group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) up to this point of the CRP. The activities at INL have been focused so far on creating the problem specifications for the prismatic design, as well as providing reference solutions for the exercises defined for Phase I. An overview is provided of the HTGR UAM objectives and scope, and the detailed specifications for Exercises I-1, I-2, I-3 and I-4 are also included here for completeness. The main focus of the report is the compilation and discussion of reference results for Phase I (i.e. for input parameters at their nominal or best-estimate values), which is defined as the first step of the uncertainty quantification process. These reference results can be used by other CRP participants for comparison with other codes or their own reference results. The status on the Monte Carlo modeling of the experimental VHTRC facility is also discussed. Reference results were obtained for the neutronics stand-alone cases (Ex. I-1 and Ex. I-2) using the (relatively new) Monte Carlo code Serpent, and comparisons were performed with the more established Monte Carlo codes MCNP and KENO-VI. For the thermal-fluids stand-alone cases (Ex. I-3 and I-4) the commercial CFD code CFX was utilized to obtain reference results that can be compared with lower fidelity tools.

Gerhard Strydom; Friederike Bostelmann

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Uncertainty evaluation for the matrix 'solidified state' of fissionable elements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In case of the analysis of the radioactive liquid samples, no matter the relative physical analysis method used, two impediments act that belong to the behavior in time of the dispersion state of the liquid samples to be analyzed and of the standard used in the analysis. That is, one of them refers to the state of the sample to be analyzed when being sampled, which 'alter' during the time elapsed from sampling up to the analysis of the sample. The other impediment is the natural change of the dispersion state of the standard radioactive solutions, due to the occurrence and evolution in time of the radiocolloidal and pseudo-radiocolloidal states. These radiocolloidal states are states of aggregation and they lead to the destruction of the homogeneity of the solutions. Taking into consideration the advantages offered by the relative physical methods of analysis as against the chemical or the radiochemical ones, different ways of eliminating these impediments have been tried. We eliminated these impediments processing the liquid reference materials (the solutions calibrated in radionuclides of interest), immediately after the preparation. This processing changes the liquid physical state of the reference materials in a 'solidified state'. Through this procedure the dispersion states of the samples, practically, can no longer be essentially modified in time and also ensure the uniform distribution of the radionuclides of interest in the elemental matrix of the samples 'state solidified'. The homogeneity of the distribution of the atoms of the radionuclides from the samples 'solidified state' was checked up through the track micromapping technique of the alpha particles. Through this technique, in the chemically etched track detectors that were put in direct contact with the sample for a determined period of time, the alpha exposure time of the detectors, micromaps of alpha tracks were obtained. These micromaps are retorts through tracks of the distributions atoms of fissionable elements (Thorium e.g.), of which, heavy charged particles, in this case the alpha radiations naturally emitted, were registered in the CR-39 track detectors. The density of alpha track from the obtained track micromaps was studied through common optic microscopy. Micromaps were studied counting the tracks on equal areas, in different measurement points. For the study of the foils prepared within the paper, the studied area was of 4.9 mm2, formed of 10 fields of 0.49 mm2 area each. The estimation of the uncertainty was carried out for all the sizes that were measured within the paper, no matter if they participate, directly or indirectly, in the estimation of the uncertainty regarding the homogeneity of the Thorium atoms distribution in the 'solidified state' foils of the standard solution calibrated in Thorium, such as: i) the weighted masses, ii) the dropped volumes of solution, iii) the alpha duration of exposure of the detectors, iv) the area studied on the surface of the micromap and v) the densities of alpha tracks. The procedure suggested allowed us to considerate that the homogeneity of alpha tracks distribution, on the surface and in thickness, is within the limits of 3.1%.

Iliescu, Elena; Iancso, Georgeta [National Institute of R and D for Physics and Nuclear Engineering-'Horia Hulubei', Str.Reactorului 30, P.O. BOX MG-6, Magurele (Romania)

2012-09-06T23:59:59.000Z

345

Reducing Uncertainty for the DeltaQ Duct Leakage Test  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The thermal distribution system couples the HVAC components to the building envelope, and shares many properties of the buildings envelope including moisture, conduction and most especially air leakage performance. Duct leakage has a strong influence on air flow rates through building envelopes (usually resulting in much greater flows than those due to natural infiltration) because unbalanced duct air flows and leaks result in building pressurization and depressurization. As a tool to estimate this effect, the DeltaQ duct leakage test has been developed over the past several years as an improvement to existing duct pressurization tests. It focuses on measuring the air leakage flows to outside at operating conditions that are required for envelope infiltration impacts and energy loss calculations for duct systems. The DeltaQ test builds on the standard envelope tightness blower door measurement techniques by repeating the tests with the system air handler off and on. The DeltaQ test requires several assumptions to be made about duct leakage and its interaction with the duct system and building envelope in order to convert the blower door results into duct leakage at system operating conditions. This study examined improvements to the DeltaQ test that account for some of these assumptions using a duct system and building envelope in a test laboratory. The laboratory measurements used a purpose-built test chamber coupled to a duct system typical of forced air systems in US homes. Special duct leaks with controlled air-flow were designed and installed into an airtight duct system. This test apparatus allowed the systematic variation of the duct and envelope leakage and accurate measurement of the duct leakage flows for comparison to DeltaQ test results. This paper will discuss the laboratory test apparatus design, construction and operation, the various analysis techniques applied to the calculation procedure and present estimates of uncertainty in measured duct leakage.

Walker, Iain S.; Sherman, Max H.; Dickerhoff, Darryl J.

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Generalized Uncertainty Principle and Recent Cosmic Inflation Observations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The recent background imaging of cosmic extragalactic polarization (BICEP2) observations are believed as an evidence for the cosmic inflation. BICEP2 provided a first direct evidence for the inflation, determined its energy scale and debriefed witnesses for the quantum gravitational processes. The ratio of scalar-to-tensor fluctuations $r$ which is the canonical measurement of the gravitational waves, was estimated as $r=0.2_{-0.05}^{+0.07}$. Apparently, this value agrees well with the upper bound value corresponding to PLANCK $r\\leq 0.012$ and to WMAP9 experiment $r=0.2$. It is believed that the existence of a minimal length is one of the greatest predictions leading to modifications in the Heisenberg uncertainty principle or a GUP at the Planck scale. In the present work, we investigate the possibility of interpreting recent BICEP2 observations through quantum gravity or GUP. We estimate the slow-roll parameters, the tensorial and the scalar density fluctuations which are characterized by the scalar field $\\phi$. Taking into account the background (matter and radiation) energy density, $\\phi$ is assumed to interact with the gravity and with itself. We first review the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) Universe and then suggest modification in the Friedmann equation due to GUP. By using a single potential for a chaotic inflation model, various inflationary parameters are estimated and compared with the PLANCK and BICEP2 observations. While GUP is conjectured to break down the expansion of the early Universe (Hubble parameter and scale factor), two inflation potentials based on certain minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model result in $r$ and spectral index matching well with the observations. Corresponding to BICEP2 observations, our estimation for $r$ depends on the inflation potential and the scalar field. A power-law inflation potential does not.

Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

2014-10-29T23:59:59.000Z

347

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A multi-rate expression for uranyl [U(VI)] surface complexation reactions has been proposed to describe diffusion-limited U(VI) sorption/desorption in heterogeneous subsurface sediments. An important assumption in the rate expression is that its rate constants follow a certain type probability distribution. In this paper, a Bayes-based, Differential Evolution Markov Chain method was used to assess the distribution assumption and to analyze parameter and model structure uncertainties. U(VI) desorption from a contaminated sediment at the US Hanford 300 Area, Washington was used as an example for detail analysis. The results indicated that: 1) the rate constants in the multi-rate expression contain uneven uncertainties with slower rate constants having relative larger uncertainties; 2) the lognormal distribution is an effective assumption for the rate constants in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the smaller rate constants; and 4) both parameter and model structure uncertainties can affect the extrapolation of the multi-rate model with a larger uncertainty from the model structure. The results provide important insights into the factors contributing to the uncertainties of the multi-rate expression commonly used to describe the diffusion or mixing-limited sorption/desorption of both organic and inorganic contaminants in subsurface sediments.

Zhang, Xiaoying; Liu, Chongxuan; Hu, Bill X.; Zhang, Guannan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Stochastic sampling method with MCNPX for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in criticality safety applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the domain of criticality safety, the efficient propagation of uncertainty in nuclear data to uncertainty in k{sub eff} is an important area of current research. In this paper, a method based on stochastic sampling is presented for uncertainty propagation in MCNPX calculations. To that aim, the nuclear data (i.e. cross sections) are assumed to have a multivariate normal distribution and simple random sampling is performed following this presumed probability distribution. A verification of the developed stochastic sampling procedure with MCNPX is then conducted using the {sup 239}Pu Jezebel experiment as well as the PB-2 BWR and TMI-1 PWR pin cell models from the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) exercises. For the Jezebel case, it is found that the developed stochastic sampling approach predicts similar k{sub eff} uncertainties compared to conventional sensitivity and uncertainty methods. For the UAM models, slightly lower uncertainties are obtained when comparing to existing preliminary results. Further details of these verification studies are discussed and directions for future work are outlined. (authors)

Zhu, T.; Vasiliev, A.; Wieselquist, W.; Ferroukhi, H. [Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen (Switzerland)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Sensitivity and uncertainty in the effective delayed neutron fraction ({beta}{sub eff})  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Precise knowledge of effective delayed neutron fraction ({beta}{sub eff}) and of the corresponding uncertainty is important for reactor safety analysis. The interest in developing the methodology for estimating the uncertainty in {beta}{sub eff} was expressed in the scope of the UAM project of the OECD/NEA. A novel approach for the calculation of the nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty of the effective delayed neutron fraction is proposed, based on the linear perturbation theory. The method allows the detailed analysis of components of {beta}{sub eff} uncertainty. The procedure was implemented in the SUSD3D sensitivity and uncertainty code applied to several fast neutron benchmark experiments from the ICSBEP and IRPhE databases. According to the JENDL-4 covariance matrices and taking into account the uncertainty in the cross sections and in the prompt and delayed fission spectra the total uncertainty in {beta}eff was found to be of the order of {approx}2 to {approx}3.5 % for the studied fast experiments. (authors)

Kodeli, I. I. [Jozef Stefan Inst., Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for ELECTRA burn-up calculations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The European Lead-Cooled Training Reactor (ELECTRA) has been proposed as a training reactor for fast systems within the Swedish nuclear program. It is a low-power fast reactor cooled by pure liquid lead. In this work, we propagate the uncertainties in Pu-239 transport data to uncertainties in the fuel inventory of ELECTRA during the reactor life using the Total Monte Carlo approach (TMC). Within the TENDL project the nuclear models input parameters were randomized within their uncertainties and 740 Pu-239 nuclear data libraries were generated. These libraries are used as inputs to reactor codes, in our case SERPENT, to perform uncertainty analysis of nuclear reactor inventory during burn-up. The uncertainty in the inventory determines uncertainties in: the long-term radio-toxicity, the decay heat, the evolution of reactivity parameters, gas pressure and volatile fission product content. In this work, a methodology called fast TMC is utilized, which reduces the overall calculation time. The uncertainty in the ...

ostrand, H; Duan, J; Gustavsson, C; Koning, A; Pomp, S; Rochman, D; Osterlund, M

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Uncertainty analysis of an aviation climate model and an aircraft price model for assessment of environmental effects  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Estimating, presenting, and assessing uncertainties are important parts in assessment of a complex system. This thesis focuses on the assessment of uncertainty in the price module and the climate module in the Aviation ...

Jun, Mina

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

PEBBED Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the CRP-5 PBMR DLOFC Transient Benchmark with the SUSA Code  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The need for a defendable and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach that conforms to the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) process, and that could be used for a wide variety of software codes, was defined in 2008. The GRS (Gesellschaft fr Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit) company of Germany has developed one type of CSAU approach that is particularly well suited for legacy coupled core analysis codes, and a trial version of their commercial software product SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses) was acquired on May 12, 2010. This report summarized the results of the initial investigations performed with SUSA, utilizing a typical High Temperature Reactor benchmark (the IAEA CRP-5 PBMR 400MW Exercise 2) and the PEBBED-THERMIX suite of codes. The following steps were performed as part of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: 1. Eight PEBBED-THERMIX model input parameters were selected for inclusion in the uncertainty study: the total reactor power, inlet gas temperature, decay heat, and the specific heat capability and thermal conductivity of the fuel, pebble bed and reflector graphite. 2. The input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, and a total of 800 PEBBED-THERMIX model calculations were performed, divided into 4 sets of 100 and 2 sets of 200 Steady State and Depressurized Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) transient calculations each. 3. The steady state and DLOFC maximum fuel temperature, as well as the daily pebble fuel load rate data, were supplied to SUSA as model output parameters of interest. The 6 data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% percentile values for each of the 3 output parameters with a 95% confidence level, and typical statistical indictors were also generated (e.g. Kendall, Pearson and Spearman coefficients). 4. A SUSA sensitivity study was performed to obtain correlation data between the input and output parameters, and to identify the primary contributors to the output data uncertainties. It was found that the uncertainties in the decay heat, pebble bed and reflector thermal conductivities were responsible for the bulk of the propagated uncertainty in the DLOFC maximum fuel temperature. It was also determined that the two standard deviation (2s) uncertainty on the maximum fuel temperature was between 58oC (3.6%) and 76oC (4.7%) on a mean value of 1604 oC. These values mostly depended on the selection of the distributions types, and not on the number of model calculations above the required Wilks criteria (a (95%,95%) statement would usually require 93 model runs).

Gerhard Strydom

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Statistical Assessment of Proton Treatment Plans Under Setup and Range Uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: To evaluate a method for quantifying the effect of setup errors and range uncertainties on dose distribution and dosevolume histogram using statistical parameters; and to assess existing planning practice in selected treatment sites under setup and range uncertainties. Methods and Materials: Twenty passively scattered proton lung cancer plans, 10 prostate, and 1 brain cancer scanning-beam proton plan(s) were analyzed. To account for the dose under uncertainties, we performed a comprehensive simulation in which the dose was recalculated 600 times per given plan under the influence of random and systematic setup errors and proton range errors. On the basis of simulation results, we determined the probability of dose variations and calculated the expected values and standard deviations of dosevolume histograms. The uncertainties in dose were spatially visualized on the planning CT as a probability map of failure to target coverage or overdose of critical structures. Results: The expected value of target coverage under the uncertainties was consistently lower than that of the nominal value determined from the clinical target volume coverage without setup error or range uncertainty, with a mean difference of ?1.1% (?0.9% for breath-hold), ?0.3%, and ?2.2% for lung, prostate, and a brain cases, respectively. The organs with most sensitive dose under uncertainties were esophagus and spinal cord for lung, rectum for prostate, and brain stem for brain cancer. Conclusions: A clinically feasible robustness plan analysis tool based on direct dose calculation and statistical simulation has been developed. Both the expectation value and standard deviation are useful to evaluate the impact of uncertainties. The existing proton beam planning method used in this institution seems to be adequate in terms of target coverage. However, structures that are small in volume or located near the target area showed greater sensitivity to uncertainties.

Park, Peter C.; Cheung, Joey P.; Zhu, X. Ronald [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Lee, Andrew K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Sahoo, Narayan [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tucker, Susan L. [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liu, Wei; Li, Heng; Mohan, Radhe; Court, Laurence E. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Dong, Lei, E-mail: dong.lei@scrippshealth.org [Scripps Proton Therapy Center, San Diego, California (United States)

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Introduction to the Special Section in Vadose Zone Journal: Parameter Identification and Uncertainty Assessment in the Unsaturated Zone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Uncertainty Assessment in the Unsaturated Zone Jasper A. Vrugt* and Shlomo P. Neuman DURING the last few

Vrugt, Jasper A.

355

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

2001-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

356

Dakota uncertainty quantification methods applied to the NEK-5000 SAHEX model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes the results of a NEAMS project focused on the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods within the NEK-5000 and Dakota software framework for assessing failure probabilities as part of probabilistic risk assessment. NEK-5000 is a software tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory to perform computational fluid dynamics calculations for applications such as thermohydraulics of nuclear reactor cores. Dakota is a software tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories containing optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification algorithms. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the use of uncertainty quantification methods in Dakota with NEK-5000.

Weirs, V. Gregory

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Multiplicative scale uncertainties in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We have investigated how uncertainties in the estimation of the detection efficiency affect the 90% confidence intervals in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals. The study has been conducted for experiments where the number of detected events is large and can be described by a Gaussian probability density function. We also assume the detection efficiency has a Gaussian probability density and study the range of the relative uncertainties $\\sigma_\\epsilon$ between 0 and 30%. We find that the confidence intervals provide proper coverage over a wide signal range and increase smoothly and continuously from the intervals that ignore scale uncertainties with a quadratic dependence on $\\sigma_\\epsilon$.

E. S. Smith

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

358

Balance Calibration A Method for Assigning a Direct-Reading Uncertainty to an Electronic Balance.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Paper Title: Balance Calibration A method for assigning a direct-reading uncertainty to an electronic balance. Intended Audience: Those who calibrate or use electronic balances. Abstract: As a calibration facility, we provide on-site (at the customers location) calibrations of electronic balances for customers within our company. In our experience, most of our customers are not using their balance as a comparator, but simply putting an unknown quantity on the balance and reading the displayed mass value. Manufacturers specifications for balances typically include specifications such as readability, repeatability, linearity, and sensitivity temperature drift, but what does this all mean when the balance user simply reads the displayed mass value and accepts the reading as the true value? This paper discusses a method for assigning a direct-reading uncertainty to a balance based upon the observed calibration data and the environment where the balance is being used. The method requires input from the customer regarding the environment where the balance is used and encourages discussion with the customer regarding sources of uncertainty and possible means for improvement; the calibration process becomes an educational opportunity for the balance user as well as calibration personnel. This paper will cover the uncertainty analysis applied to the calibration weights used for the field calibration of balances; the uncertainty is calculated over the range of environmental conditions typically encountered in the field and the resulting range of air density. The temperature stability in the area of the balance is discussed with the customer and the temperature range over which the balance calibration is valid is decided upon; the decision is based upon the uncertainty needs of the customer and the desired rigor in monitoring by the customer. Once the environmental limitations are decided, the calibration is performed and the measurement data is entered into a custom spreadsheet. The spreadsheet uses measurement results, along with the manufacturers specifications, to assign a direct-read measurement uncertainty to the balance. The fact that the assigned uncertainty is a best-case uncertainty is discussed with the customer; the assigned uncertainty contains no allowance for contributions associated with the unknown weighing sample, such as density, static charges, magnetism, etc. The attendee will learn uncertainty considerations associated with balance calibrations along with one method for assigning an uncertainty to a balance used for non-comparison measurements.

Mike Stears

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Impact of Uncertainties in Hadron Production on Air-Shower Predictions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

At high energy, cosmic rays can only be studied by measuring the extensive air showers they produce in the atmosphere of the Earth. Although the main features of air showers can be understood within a simple model of successive interactions, detailed simulations and a realistic description of particle production are needed to calculate observables relevant to air shower experiments. Currently hadronic interaction models are the main source of uncertainty of such simulations. We will study the effect of using different hadronic models available in CORSIKA and CONEX on extensive air shower predictions.

T. Pierog; R. Engel; D. Heck

2006-02-08T23:59:59.000Z

360

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for thermo-hydraulic calculation of research reactor  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of input parameters on thermohydraulic calculations for a research reactor has successfully done in this research. The uncertainty analysis was carried out on input parameters for thermohydraulic calculation of sub-channel analysis using Code COOLOD-N. The input parameters include radial peaking factor, the increase bulk coolant temperature, heat flux factor and the increase temperature cladding and fuel meat at research reactor utilizing plate fuel element. The input uncertainty of 1% - 4% were used in nominal power calculation. The bubble detachment parameters were computed for S ratio (the safety margin against the onset of flow instability ratio) which were used to determine safety level in line with the design of 'Reactor Serba Guna-G. A. Siwabessy' (RSG-GA Siwabessy). It was concluded from the calculation results that using the uncertainty input more than 3% was beyond the safety margin of reactor operation.

Hartini, Entin; Andiwijayakusuma, Dinan [Center for Development of Nuclear Informatics - National Nuclear Energy Agency PUSPIPTEK, Serpong, Tangerang, Banten (Indonesia)] [Center for Development of Nuclear Informatics - National Nuclear Energy Agency PUSPIPTEK, Serpong, Tangerang, Banten (Indonesia); Isnaeni, Muh Darwis [Center for Reactor Technology and Nuclear Safety- National Nuclear Energy Agency PUSPIPTEK, Serpong, Tangerang, Banten (Indonesia)] [Center for Reactor Technology and Nuclear Safety- National Nuclear Energy Agency PUSPIPTEK, Serpong, Tangerang, Banten (Indonesia)

2013-09-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Multiscale Simulation and Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Richards' Equation in Heterogeneous Media  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this dissertation, we develop multiscale finite element methods and uncertainty quantification technique for Richards' equation, a mathematical model to describe fluid flow in unsaturated porous media. Both coarse-level and fine-level numerical...

Kang, Seul Ki

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

362

Evaluating and developing parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis methods for a computationally intensive distributed hydrological model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study focuses on developing and evaluating efficient and effective parameter calibration and uncertainty methods for hydrologic modeling. Five single objective optimization algorithms and six multi-objective optimization algorithms were tested...

Zhang, Xuesong

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

363

Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in the presence of modeling uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes an adaptive controller for a hypersonic cruise vehicle subject to aerodynamic uncertainties, center-of-gravity movements, actuator saturation, failures, and time-delays. The adaptive control architecture ...

Gibson, Travis Eli

364

Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for ...

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

365

Real options for naval ship design and acquisition : a method for valuing flexibility under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The United States Navy is facing a need for a novel surface combatant capability. This new system of ships must be deigned to meet the uncertainty associated with constantly changing required mission capabilities, threats, ...

Gregor, Jeffrey Allen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Kiwi: An Evaluated Library of Uncertainties in Nuclear Data and Package for Nuclear Sensitivity Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes Kiwi, a program developed at Livermore to enable mature studies of the relation between imperfectly known nuclear physics and uncertainties in simulations of complicated systems. Kiwi includes a library of evaluated nuclear data uncertainties, tools for modifying data according to these uncertainties, and a simple interface for generating processed data used by transport codes. As well, Kiwi provides access to calculations of k eigenvalues for critical assemblies. This allows the user to check implications of data modifications against integral experiments for multiplying systems. Kiwi is written in python. The uncertainty library has the same format and directory structure as the native ENDL used at Livermore. Calculations for critical assemblies rely on deterministic and Monte Carlo codes developed by B division.

Pruet, J

2007-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

367

Quantitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (QPIRT) for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Propagating parameter uncertainty for a nuclear reactor system code is a very challenging problem. Numerous parameters influence the system response in complicated and often non-linear fashions, in addition to sometimes ...

Yurko, Joseph P.

368

Joint Uncertainty Decoding for Noise Robust Speech Recognition H. Liao and M. J. F. Gales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Joint Uncertainty Decoding for Noise Robust Speech Recognition H. Liao and M. J. F. Gales Cambridge acoustic environment. Examples in this class include Parallel Model Combination (PMC) [2] and Vector Tay

Gales, Mark

369

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events in the United States: An Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in ...

Monier, Erwan

370

Strategic investment in power generation under uncertainty : Electric Reliability Council of Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of this study is to develop a strategy for investment in power generation technologies in the future given the uncertainties in climate policy and fuel prices. First, such studies are commonly conducted using ...

Chiyangwa, Diana Kudakwashe

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

A generalized real options methodology for evaluating investments under uncertainty with application to air transportation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real options analysis is being increasingly used as a tool to evaluate investments under uncertainty; however, traditional real options methodologies have some shortcomings that limit their utility, such as the use of the ...

Miller, Bruno, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

An Integrated Real options Framework for model-based identification and valuation of options under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Complex systems and enterprises, such as those typical in the aerospace industry, are subject to uncertainties that may lead to suboptimal performance or even catastrophic failures if unmanaged. This work focuses on ...

Mikaelian, Tsoline

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Long term infrastructure investments under uncertainty in the electric power sector using approximate dynamic programming techniques  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A computer model was developed to find optimal long-term investment strategies for the electric power sector under uncertainty with respect to future regulatory regimes and market conditions. The model is based on a ...

Seelhof, Michael

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Uncertainties in Achieving Energy Savings from HVAC Maintenance Measures in the Field  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Achieving Energy Savings from HVAC Maintenance Measures in the Field Kristin Group, Davis, CA, USA 4 Southern California Edison, Irwindale, CA, USA ABSTRACT HVAC maintenance utilities across the nation to include HVAC maintenance measures in energy efficiency programs

California at Davis, University of

375

Life Cycle Regulation of Transportation Fuels: Uncertainty and its Policy Implications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Standard and the US Renew- able Fuel Standard use Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to estimate greenhouse gas analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.3. Life cycle assessmentLife Cycle Regulation of Transportation Fuels: Uncertainty and its Policy Implications by Richard J

Kammen, Daniel M.

376

Characterizing uncertainty to manage risk in spacecraft development with application to structures and mass  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Most space programs experience significant cost and schedule growth over the course of program development. Poor uncertainty management has been identified as one of the leading causes of program cost and schedule overruns. ...

Clements, Emily Baker

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Electricity generation and emissions reduction decisions under uncertainty : a general equilibrium analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, Jennifer F. (Jennifer Faye)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Coupled differential and integral data analysis for improved uncertainty quantification of the ?,??Cu cross section evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A new methodology has been developed that couples differential cross section data evaluation with integral benchmark analysis for improved uncertainty quantification. The new methodology was applied to the two new copper ...

Sobes, Vladimir

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in calculated impacts of climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global models and the CMAQ model in 2050 ...

Liao, K.-J.

380

Compensating for model uncertainty in the control of cooperative field robots  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Current control and planning algorithms are largely unsuitable for mobile robots in unstructured field environment due to uncertainties in the environment, task, robot models and sensors. A key problem is that it is often ...

Sujan, Vivek Anand, 1972-

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Absolute vs. Intensity Limits for CO2 Emission Control: Performance Under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We elucidate the differences between absolute and intensity-based limits of CO2 emission when there is uncertainty about the future. We demonstrate that the two limits are identical under certainty, and rigorously establish ...

Sue Wing, Ian.

382

System level assessment of uncertainty in aviation environmental policy impact analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis demonstrates the assessment of uncertainty of a simulation model at the system level, which takes into account the interaction between the modules that comprise the system. Results from this system level ...

Liem, Rhea Patricia

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

The q-Deformed Harmonic Oscillator, Coherent States, and the Uncertainty Relation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

For a q-deformed harmonic oscillator, we find explicit coordinate representations of the creation and annihilation operators, eigenfunctions, and coherent states (the last being defined as eigenstates of the annihilation operator). We calculate the product of the coordinate momentum uncertainties in qoscillator eigenstates and in coherent states. For the oscillator, this product is minimum in the ground state and equals 1/2, as in the standard quantum mechanics. For coherent states, the $q$-deformation results in a violation of the standard uncertainty relation; the product of the coordinate- and momentumoperator uncertainties is always less than 1/2. States with the minimum uncertainty, which tends to zero, correspond to the values of $\\lambda$ near the convergence radius of the $q$-exponential.

V. V Eremin; A. A. Meldianov

2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

384

Assessing early investments in low carbon technologies under uncertainty : the case of Carbon Capture and Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate change is a threat that could be mitigated by introducing new energy technologies into the electricity market that emit fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We face many uncertainties that would affect the demand ...

Ereira, Eleanor Charlotte

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Electricity Generation and Emissions Reduction Decisions under Policy Uncertainty: A General Equilibrium Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, J.

386

Quantum States Allowing Minimum Uncertainty Product of angular position and momentum  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for states to have an arbitrarily small uncertainty product of the azimuthal angle $\\phi $ and its canonical moment $L_{z}$. We illustrate our results with analytical examples.

Tiago Pereira; D. H. U. Marchetti

2008-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

387

Fast Algorithms for Computing Statistics Under Interval and Fuzzy Uncertainty, and Their Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

engineering applications, we are interested in computing statistics. For example, in environmental analysis, a reasonable statistic for estimating the mean value of a probability distribution is the population average EFast Algorithms for Computing Statistics Under Interval and Fuzzy Uncertainty

Kreinovich, Vladik

388

PDF uncertainties on the W boson mass measurement from the lepton transverse momentum distribution  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the charged current Drell-Yan process and we evaluate the proton parton densities uncertainties on the lepton transverse momentum distribution and their impact on the determination of the W-boson mass. We consider the global PDF sets CT10, MSTW2008CPdeut, NNPDF2.3, NNPDF3.0, MMHT2014, and apply the PDF4LHC recipe to combine the individual results, obtaining an uncertainty on MW that ranges between +-18 and +-24 MeV, depending on the final state, collider energy and kind. We discuss the dependence of the uncertainty on the acceptance cuts and the role of the individual parton densities in the final result. We remark that some PDF sets predict an uncertainty on MW of O(10 MeV); this encouraging result is spoiled, in the combined analysis of the different sets, by an important spread of the central values predicted by each group.

Bozzi, Giuseppe; Vicini, Alessandro

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(EIA),16 the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to average $68 per barrel in both 2006 and 2007. 2.2 Uncertainty in Petroleum Project Evaluations The literature indicates an informal distinction between ?risk...

Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

390

The Value of Assessing Uncertainty in Oil and Gas Portfolio Optimization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

It has been shown in the literature that the oil and gas industry deals with a substantial number of biases that impact project evaluation and portfolio performance. Previous studies concluded that properly estimating uncertainties...

Hdadou, Houda

2013-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

391

The relationship between disability and depression in multiple sclerosis: the role of uncertainty, coping, and hope.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The relationship between disability and depression was studied in 188 patients with clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS). Patients were administered the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, Ways of Coping, Uncertainty ...

Lynch, Sharon G.; Kroencke, Dawn C.; Denney, Douglas R.

2001-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

1995-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

393

Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3)[(O subscript 3)] predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer ...

Bei, Naifang

394

ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AS NEGATIVE EXTERNALITY: UNCERTAINTY, MORAL COMPLEXITY AND THE LIMITS OF THE MARKET  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

21 ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AS NEGATIVE EXTERNALITY: UNCERTAINTY, MORAL COMPLEXITY AND THE LIMITS environmental damage with a sociological approach, I show how the process of externalities definition inclusive and democratic public deliberation on environmental damage and its reparation. Key Words

Boyer, Edmond

395

Statistical uncertainties of a chiral interaction at next-to-next-to leading order  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We have quantified the statistical uncertainties of the low-energy coupling-constants (LECs) of an optimized nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction from chiral effective field theory ($\\chi$EFT) at next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO). In addition, we have propagated the impact of the uncertainties of the LECs to two-nucleon scattering phase shifts, effective range parameters, and deuteron observables.

A. Ekstrm; B. D. Carlsson; K. A. Wendt; C. Forssn; M. Hjorth-Jensen; R. Machleidt; S. M. Wild

2014-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

396

1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis · Introduction · Bias and Precision Summation/Propagation (Expanded Combined Uncertainty) · Problem 5-30 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5) at corresponding Probability (%P) Remember: u = d%P = t,%PS (@ %P); z=t=d/S #12;2 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Bias

Kostic, Milivoje M.

397

Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for Nondestructive Assay of Transuranic (TRU) Waste at the WRAP Facility  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) facility, located on the Hanford Site in southeast Washington, is a key link in the certification of Hanford's transuranic (TRU) waste for shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Waste characterization is one of the vital functions performed at WRAP, and nondestructive assay (NDA) measurements of TRU waste containers is one of two required methods used for waste characterization (Reference 1). Various programs exist to ensure the validity of waste characterization data; all of these cite the need for clearly defined knowledge of uncertainty, associated with any measurements taken. All measurements have an inherent uncertainty associated with them. The combined effect of all uncertainties associated with a measurement is referred to as the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU). The NDA measurement uncertainties can be numerous and complex. In addition to system-induced measurement uncertainty, other factors contribute to the TMU, each associated with a particular measurement. The NDA measurements at WRAP are based on processes (radioactive decay and induced fission) which are statistical in nature. As a result, the proper statistical summation of the various uncertainty components is essential. This report examines the contributing factors to NDA measurement uncertainty at WRAP. The significance of each factor on the TMU is analyzed, and a final method is given for determining the TMU for NDA measurements at WRAP. As more data becomes available, and WRAP gains in operational experience, this report will be reviewed semi-annually and updated as necessary. This report also includes the data flow paths for the analytical process in the radiometric determinations.

WILLS, C.E.

2000-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

398

Mathematical and Computational Tools for Predictive Simulation of Complex Coupled Systems under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Methods and algorithms are developed to enable the accurate analysis of problems that exhibit interacting physical processes with uncertainties. These uncertainties can pertain either to each of the physical processes or to the manner in which they depend on each others. These problems are cast within a polynomial chaos framework and their solution then involves either solving a large system of algebraic equations or a high dimensional numerical quadrature. In both cases, the curse of dimensionality is manifested. Procedures are developed for the efficient evaluation of the resulting linear equations that advantage of the block sparse structure of these equations, resulting in a block recursive Schur complement construction. In addition, embedded quadratures are constructed that permit the evaluation of very high-dimensional integrals using low-dimensional quadratures adapted to particular quantities of interest. The low-dimensional integration is carried out in a transformed measure space in which the quantity of interest is low-dimensional. Finally, a procedure is also developed to discover a low-dimensional manifold, embedded in the initial high-dimensional one, in which scalar quantities of interest exist. This approach permits the functional expression of the reduced space in terms of the original space, thus permitting cross-scale sensitivity analysis.

Ghanem, Roger

2013-03-25T23:59:59.000Z

399

Uncertainties in source term calculations generated by the ORIGEN2 computer code for Hanford Production Reactors  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The ORIGEN2 computer code is the primary calculational tool for computing isotopic source terms for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The ORIGEN2 code computes the amounts of radionuclides that are created or remain in spent nuclear fuel after neutron irradiation and radioactive decay have occurred as a result of nuclear reactor operation. ORIGEN2 was chosen as the primary code for these calculations because it is widely used and accepted by the nuclear industry, both in the United States and the rest of the world. Its comprehensive library of over 1,600 nuclides includes any possible isotope of interest to the HEDR Project. It is important to evaluate the uncertainties expected from use of ORIGEN2 in the HEDR Project because these uncertainties may have a pivotal impact on the final accuracy and credibility of the results of the project. There are three primary sources of uncertainty in an ORIGEN2 calculation: basic nuclear data uncertainty in neutron cross sections, radioactive decay constants, energy per fission, and fission product yields; calculational uncertainty due to input data; and code uncertainties (i.e., numerical approximations, and neutron spectrum-averaged cross-section values from the code library). 15 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

Heeb, C.M.

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (1520), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

Perk, Zoltn, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl; Kloosterman, Jan Leen, E-mail: J.L.Kloosterman@tudelft.nl

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

The ends of uncertainty: Air quality science and planning in Central California  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Air quality planning in Central California is complicated and controversial despite millions of dollars invested to improve scientific understanding. This research describes and critiques the use of photochemical air quality simulation modeling studies in planning to attain standards for ground-level ozone in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley during the 1990's. Data are gathered through documents and interviews with planners, modelers, and policy-makers at public agencies and with representatives from the regulated and environmental communities. Interactions amongst organizations are diagramed to identify significant nodes of interaction. Dominant policy coalitions are described through narratives distinguished by their uses of and responses to uncertainty, their exposures to risks, and their responses to the principles of conservatism, civil duty, and caution. Policy narratives are delineated using aggregated respondent statements to describe and understand advocacy coalitions. I found that models impacted the planning process significantly, but were used not purely for their scientific capabilities. Modeling results provided justification for decisions based on other constraints and political considerations. Uncertainties were utilized opportunistically by stakeholders instead of managed explicitly. Ultimately, the process supported the partisan views of those in control of the modeling. Based on these findings, as well as a review of model uncertainty analysis capabilities, I recommend modifying the planning process to allow for the development and incorporation of uncertainty information, while addressing the need for inclusive and meaningful public participation. By documenting an actual air quality planning process these findings provide insights about the potential for using new scientific information and understanding to achieve environmental goals, most notably the analysis of uncertainties in modeling applications. Concurrently, needed uncertainty information is identified and capabilities to produce it are assessed. Practices to facilitate incorporation of uncertainty information are suggested based on research findings, as well as theory from the literatures of the policy sciences, decision sciences, science and technology studies, consensus-based and communicative planning, and modeling.

Fine, James

2003-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Vigil, Dena M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Lefantzi, Sophia (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Eddy, John P.

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

2013-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

405

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Ross, Kyle; Cardoni, Jeffrey N; Kalinich, Donald A.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Ghosh, S. Tina

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energys Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification through PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. This computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.

John C Eslick, John C; Ng, Brenda Ng; Gao, Qianwen; Tong, Charles H.; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.; Miller, David C.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Uncertainty Analysis of Spectral Irradiance Reference Standards Used for NREL Calibrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Spectral irradiance produced by lamp standards such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) FEL-type tungsten halogen lamps are used to calibrate spectroradiometers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Spectroradiometers are often used to characterize spectral irradiance of solar simulators, which in turn are used to characterize photovoltaic device performance, e.g., power output and spectral response. Therefore, quantifying the calibration uncertainty of spectroradiometers is critical to understanding photovoltaic system performance. In this study, we attempted to reproduce the NIST-reported input variables, including the calibration uncertainty in spectral irradiance for a standard NIST lamp, and quantify uncertainty for measurement setup at the Optical Metrology Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Reda, I.; Campanelli, M.; Stoffel, T.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Statistical Uncertainties in Temperature Diagnostics for Hot Coronal Plasma Using the ASCA SIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Statistical uncertainties in determining the temperatures of hot (0.5 keV to 10 keV) coronal plasmas are investigated. The statistical precision of various spectral temperature diagnostics is established by analyzing synthetic ASCA Solid-state Imaging Spectrometer (SIS) CCD spectra. The diagnostics considered are the ratio of hydrogen-like to helium-like line complexes of $Z\\ge14$ elements, line-free portions of the continuum, and the entire spectrum. While fits to the entire spectrum yield the highest statistical precision, it is argued that fits to the line-free continuum are less susceptible to atomic data uncertainties but lead to a modest increase in statistical uncertainty over full spectral fits. Temperatures deduced from line ratios can have similar accuracy but only over a narrow range of temperatures. Convenient estimates of statistical accuracies for the various temperature diagnostics are provided which may be used in planning ASCA SIS observations.

Douglas A. Swartz; S. L. O'Dell; M. E. Sulkanen; A. F. Tennant

1994-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

410

Uncertainty in soil-structure interaction analysis arising from differences in analytical techniques  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study addresses uncertainties arising from variations in different modeling approaches to soil-structure interaction of massive structures at a nuclear power plant. To perform a comprehensive systems analysis, it is necessary to quantify, for each phase of the traditional analysis procedure, both the realistic seismic response and the uncertainties associated with them. In this study two linear soil-structure interaction techniques were used to analyze the Zion, Illinois nuclear power plant: a direct method using the FLUSH computer program and a substructure approach using the CLASSI family of computer programs. In-structure response from two earthquakes, one real and one synthetic, was compared. Structure configurations from relatively simple to complicated multi-structure cases were analyzed. The resulting variations help quantify uncertainty in structure response due to analysis procedures.

Maslenikov, O. R.; Chen, J. C.; Johnson, J. J.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

An approach to understanding, representing, and managing uncertainty in integrated resource planning  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report addresses the issue of uncertainty in integrated resource planning (IRP). IRP is a process employed by electric utilities, often at the bellest of Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), to evaluate the acquisition of resources to meet forecast energy demands and other criteria such as energy efficiency and fuel diversity. Uncertainty plagues the preparation of IRPs, from forecasting energy prices and electricity demand to estimating costs and benefits expected from new resource acquisitions. As a result all those involved in the IRP process (including PUC commissioners and staff, utility decision makers, IRP analysts, and experts in particular areas) need to appreciate how uncertainty affects IRP and learn about available techniques to reduce its effects.

Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Schaffhauser, A.J. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Integration of the NUREG-1150 analyses: Calculation of risk and propagation of uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The calculation of risk and the propagation of uncertainties in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's reassessment of risk from commercial nuclear power stations (i.e., NUREG-1150) is described. The overall integration of the analysis performed for each nuclear power station considered in NUREG-1150 is based on: (1) relatively fast-running models for the individual parts of the analysis, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual parts of the analysis, (3) definition of selected issues for uncertainty analysis, (4) use of Monte Carlo procedures in conjunction with an efficient sampling technique (i.e., Latin hypercubs sampling) to propagate uncertainties, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. The preceding approach is described and then illustrated with the analysis performed for the Peach Bottom nuclear power station. 56 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

Helton, J.C.; Griesmeyer, J.M.; Haskin, F.E.; Iman, R.L.; Amos, C.N.; Murfin, W.B.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan. Draft for Peer Review: Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Scalable Approach to Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design of Interconnected Dynamical Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties, necessity to operate in a hostile cluttered urban environment, and the distributed and dynamic nature of the communication and computation resources. Model-based robust design is difficult because of the complexity of the hybrid dynamic models including continuous vehicle dynamics, the discrete models of computations and communications, and the size of the problem. We will overview recent advances in methodology and tools to model, analyze, and design robust autonomous aerospace systems operating in uncertain environment, with stress on efficient uncertainty quantification and robust design using the case studies of the mission including model-based target tracking and search, and trajectory planning in uncertain urban environment. To show that the methodology is generally applicable to...

Banaszuk, Andrzej; Frewen, Thomas A; Kobilarov, Marin; Mathew, George; Mezic, Igor; Pinto, Alessandro; Sahai, Tuhin; Sane, Harshad; Speranzon, Alberto; Surana, Amit

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

OPTIMAL DESIGN OF HYBRID ELECTRIC FUEL CELL VEHICLES UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND ENTERPRISE CONSIDERATIONS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

System research on Hybrid Electric Fuel Cell Vehicles (HEFCV) explores the tradeoffs among safety, fuel economy, acceleration, and other vehicle attributes. In addition to engineering considerations, inclusion of business aspects is important in a preliminary vehicle design optimization study. For a new technology, such as fuel cells, it is also important to include uncertainties stemming from manufacturing variability to market response to fuel price fluctuations. This paper applies a decomposition-based multidisciplinary design optimization strategy to an HEFCV. Uncertainty propagated throughout the system is accounted for in a computationally efficient manner. The latter is achieved with a new coordination strategy based on sequential linearizations. The hierarchically partitioned HEFCV design model includes enterprise, powertrain, fuel cell, and battery subsystem models. In addition to engineering uncertainties, the model takes into account uncertain behavior by consumers, and the expected maximum profit is calculated using probabilistic consumer preferences while satisfying engineering feasibility constraints. 1

Jeongwoo Han; Panos Papalambros

417

A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain a posterior distribution, which forms the basis for further inferences. In this paper, we adapt the imprecise Dirichlet model of Walley to represent epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. In this approach, epistemic uncertainty is expressed more cautiously via lower and upper expectations for each alpha-factor, along with a learning parameter which determines how quickly the model learns from observed data. For this application, we focus on elicitation of the learning parameter, and find that values in the range of 1 to 10 seem reasonable. The approach is compared with Kelly and Atwood's minimally informative Dirichlet prior for the alpha-factor model, which incorporated precise mean values for the alpha-factors, but which was otherwise quite diffuse. Next, we explore the use of a set of Gamma priors to model epistemic uncertainty in the marginal failure rate, expressed via a lower and upper expectation for this rate, again along with a learning parameter. As zero counts are generally less of an issue here, we find that the choice of this learning parameter is less crucial. Finally, we demonstrate how both epistemic uncertainty models can be combined to arrive at lower and upper expectations for all common-cause failure rates. Thereby, we effectively provide a full sensitivity analysis of common-cause failure rates, properly reflecting epistemic uncertainty of the analyst on all levels of the common-cause failure model.

Matthias C. M. Troffaes; Gero Walter; Dana Kelly

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL: TASK GROUP 4 OF THE IAEA PRISM PROJECT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is widely recognized that the results of safety assessment calculations provide an important contribution to the safety arguments for a disposal facility, but cannot in themselves adequately demonstrate the safety of the disposal system. The safety assessment and a broader range of arguments and activities need to be considered holistically to justify radioactive waste disposal at any particular site. Many programs are therefore moving towards the production of what has become known as a Safety Case, which includes all of the different activities that are conducted to demonstrate the safety of a disposal concept. Recognizing the growing interest in the concept of a Safety Case, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is undertaking an intercomparison and harmonization project called PRISM (Practical Illustration and use of the Safety Case Concept in the Management of Near-surface Disposal). The PRISM project is organized into four Task Groups that address key aspects of the Safety Case concept: Task Group 1 - Understanding the Safety Case; Task Group 2 - Disposal facility design; Task Group 3 - Managing waste acceptance; and Task Group 4 - Managing uncertainty. This paper addresses the work of Task Group 4, which is investigating approaches for managing the uncertainties associated with near-surface disposal of radioactive waste and their consideration in the context of the Safety Case. Emphasis is placed on identifying a wide variety of approaches that can and have been used to manage different types of uncertainties, especially non-quantitative approaches that have not received as much attention in previous IAEA projects. This paper includes discussions of the current results of work on the task on managing uncertainty, including: the different circumstances being considered, the sources/types of uncertainties being addressed and some initial proposals for approaches that can be used to manage different types of uncertainties.

Seitz, R.

2011-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

419

Uncertainty analysis of the Measured Performance Rating (MPR) method. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A report was commissioned by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and the Electric Power Research Institute to evaluate the uncertainties in the energy monitoring method known as measured performance rating (MPR). The work is intended to help further development of the MPR system by quantitatively analyzing the uncertainties in estimates of the heat loss coefficients and heating system efficiencies. The analysis indicates that the MPR should detect as little as a 7 percent change in the heat loss coefficients and heating system efficiencies. The analysis indicate that the MPR should be able to detect as little as a 7 percent change in the heat loss coefficient at 95 percent confidence level. MPR appears sufficiently robust for characterizing common weatherization treatments; e.g., increasing attic insulation from R-7 to R-19 in a typical single-story, 1,100 sq. ft. house resulting in a 19 percent reduction in heat loss coefficient. Furnace efficiency uncertainties ranged up to three times those of the heat loss coefficients. Measurement uncertainties (at the 95 percent confidence level) were estimated to be from 1 to 5 percent for heat loss coefficients and 1.5 percent for a typical furnace efficiency. The analysis also shows a limitation in applying MPR to houses with heating ducts in slabs on grade and to those with very large thermal mass. Most of the uncertainties encountered in the study were due more to the methods of estimating the ``true`` heat loss coefficients, furnace efficiency, and furnace fuel consumption (by collecting fuel bills and simulating two actual houses) than to the MPR approach. These uncertainties in the true parameter values become evidence for arguments in favor of the need of empirical measures of heat loss coefficient and furnace efficiency, like the MPR method, rather than arguments against.

Not Available

1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow: Risk-Aware Network Control under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

When uncontrollable resources fluctuate, Optimum Power Flow (OPF), routinely used by the electric power industry to re-dispatch hourly controllable generation (coal, gas and hydro plants) over control areas of transmission networks, can result in grid instability, and, potentially, cascading outages. This risk arises because OPF dispatch is computed without awareness of major uncertainty, in particular fluctuations in renewable output. As a result, grid operation under OPF with renewable variability can lead to frequent conditions where power line flow ratings are significantly exceeded. Such a condition, which is borne by simulations of real grids, would likely resulting in automatic line tripping to protect lines from thermal stress, a risky and undesirable outcome which compromises stability. Smart grid goals include a commitment to large penetration of highly fluctuating renewables, thus calling to reconsider current practices, in particular the use of standard OPF. Our Chance Constrained (CC) OPF correct...

Bienstock, Daniel; Harnett, Sean

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Uncertainty Estimates for SIRS, SKYRAD, & GNDRAD Data and Reprocessing the Pyrgeometer Data (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility work together in providing data from strategically located in situ measurement observatories around the world. Both work together in improving and developing new technologies that assist in acquiring high quality radiometric data. In this presentation we summarize the uncertainty estimates of the ARM data collected at the ARM Solar Infrared Radiation Station (SIRS), Sky Radiometers on Stand for Downwelling Radiation (SKYRAD), and Ground Radiometers on Stand for Upwelling Radiation (GNDRAD), which ultimately improve the existing radiometric data. Three studies are also included to show the difference between calibrating pyrgeometers (e.g., Eppley PIR) using the manufacturer blackbody versus the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG), a pyrgeometer aging study, and the sampling rate effect of correcting historical data.

Reda, I.; Stoffel, T.; Habte, A.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Energy-time and frequency-time uncertainty relations: exact inequalities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We give a short review of known exact inequalities that can be interpreted as "energy-time" and "frequency-time" uncertainty relations. In particular we discuss a precise form of signals minimizing the physical frequency-time uncertainty product. Also, we calculate the "stationarity time" for mixed Gaussian states of a quantum harmonic oscillator, showing explicitly that pure quantum states are "more fragile" than mixed ones with the same value of the energy dispersion. The problems of quantum evolution speed limits, time operators and measurements of energy and time are briefly discussed, too.

V. V. Dodonov; A. V. Dodonov

2015-04-03T23:59:59.000Z

423

Discrete-event simulation of uncertainty in single-neutron experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A discrete-event simulation approach which provides a cause-and-effect description of many experiments with photons and neutrons exhibiting interference and entanglement is applied to a recent single-neutron experiment that tests (generalizations of) Heisenberg's uncertainty relation. The event-based simulation algorithm reproduces the results of the quantum theoretical description of the experiment but does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation nor does it rely on concepts of quantum theory. In particular, the data satisfies uncertainty relations derived in the context of quantum theory.

Hans De Raedt; Kristel Michielsen

2014-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

424

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium-Size Office Building  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Buildingand actual building energy consumption can be attributed touncertainties in energy consumption due to actual weather

Wang, Liping

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

Johnson, J. D. (Prostat, Mesa, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Sensitivity of stratospheric dynamics to uncertainty in O 3 production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and W. J. Randel (1999), Climatology of arctic and antarctictotal column ozone climatology in March at high latitudesrates, improved ozone climatology pro?les and solar ?uxes.

Hsu, Juno; Prather, Michael J; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Using Relative Costs in Workflow Scheduling to Cope with Input Data Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2012 ACM 978-1-4503-1608-8/12/12 ...$15.00. the heterogeneous resources in order to estimate the exeUsing Relative Costs in Workflow Scheduling to Cope with Input Data Uncertainty Luiz F. Bittencourt the application, a scheduler must distribute the components of the workflow in the avail- able resources using

Sakellariou, Rizos

428

Uncertainties in Estimating Moisture Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea ALBERTO M. MESTAS-NUEZ  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by these uncertainties. Therefore, NCEP­ NCAR reanalysis, with its global coverage and long-term record, can be used-third of all the summer moisture that enters the continental United States is transported by the GPLLJ (Helfand United States. Future re- search aimed at understanding summer precipitation must therefore deal

429

Managing Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the price of which follows supply and demand imbalances. Electricity prices, which were tightly controlled that occurred in the Midwest during the week of June 22, 1998, when the day-ahead electricity price departedManaging Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach Samer Takriti

Ahmed, Shabbir

430

Uncertainty in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from United States Coal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyses involving coal. Greenhouse gas emissions from fuel use and methane releases at coal mines, fuel.5 million metric tons of methane emissions. Close to 95% of domestic coal was consumed by the electricityUncertainty in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from United States Coal Aranya Venkatesh

Jaramillo, Paulina

431

Reliability assessment for multi-state systems under uncertainties based on the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Reliability assessment for multi-state systems under uncertainties based on the Dempster.aguirre-martinez}@utc.fr ABSTRACT This paper presents an original method for evaluating reliability indices for Multi-State Systems to represent component state beliefs and to evaluate the MSS reliability indices. We use the example of an oil

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

432

In press, Water Resources Research Optimization of Environmental Water Purchases with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

provide efficient means to move water from those who value it less to those for whom shortage is expensiveIn press, Water Resources Research Optimization of Environmental Water Purchases with Uncertainty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis ABSTRACT Water managers are turning

Pasternack, Gregory B.

433

Taming Uncertainties in Wireless Messaging for Automotive Cyber-Physical-Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Taming Uncertainties in Wireless Messaging for Automotive Cyber-Physical-Systems Hongwei Zhang Wireless networking for automotive CPS Today's vehicles are much more than a mechanical device, and complex to the scalability of vehicular communication system, which is a basic element of automotive cyber-physical systems

Rajkumar, Ragunathan "Raj"

434

G E O M A T I C A SPATIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

G E O M A T I C A SPATIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY IN THE VGI WORLD: GOING FROM CONSUMER TO PRODUCER Joel To date, spatial data quality management has predominantly consisted of documenting processes. In this paper, we argue that involving a larger group of volunteer end-users in the spatial data uncer- tainty

435

Uncertainty Management for Spatial Data in Databases: Fuzzy Spatial Data Types  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty Management for Spatial Data in Databases: Fuzzy Spatial Data Types Markus Schneider an abstract, conceptual model of so­called fuzzy spatial data types (i.e., a fuzzy spatial algebra types called spatial data types (see [Sch97] for a survey) have been designed for modeling these spatial

Güting, Ralf Hartmut

436

Joint Uncertainty Decoding with Unscented Transform for Noise-robust Subspace Gaussian Mixture Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

T S C R T S C #12;Noise compensation Larger modelling power higher recognition accuracy. Our systemsJoint Uncertainty Decoding with Unscented Transform for Noise-robust Subspace Gaussian Mixture [Povey et al., 2011] In mismatched condition (i.e. noise), the gain disappears Goal Noise compensation

Edinburgh, University of

437

Key factors governing uncertainty in the response to sunshade geoengineering from a comparison  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Key factors governing uncertainty in the response to sunshade geoengineering from a comparison of solar geoengineering are central to evaluating whether such approaches may help to reduce the harmful impacts of global warming. In this study we compare the sunshade solar geoengineering response

Robock, Alan

438

Capturing the effects of Manufacturing Uncertainty on Turbine Blade Life using Probabilistic Techniques  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on a randomly selected sample of 11 blades manufactured within a week. Both datasets were made available to usCapturing the effects of Manufacturing Uncertainty on Turbine Blade Life using Probabilistic, UK Introduction Turbine blades are critical components affecting the life and performance

Sóbester, András

439

Remote Sensing of Mobile Source Air Pollutant Emissions: Variability and Uncertainty in On-Road Emissions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Remote Sensing of Mobile Source Air Pollutant Emissions: Variability and Uncertainty in On.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Mobile Source Emissions 2 1.2 Emission Regulations 2 1.3 Emissions Contributions of "Non Estimates 70 6.3 Fuel Economy Data for School Buses Observed at the Rock Quarry Road Site 75 6.4 Diesel

Frey, H. Christopher

440

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Using Information on Uncertainty to Improve Environmental Fate Modeling: A Case Study on DDT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Present and future concentrations of DDT in the environment are calculated with the global multi-media model CliMoChem. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the importance of uncertainties in substance property data, emission rates, and environmental parameters for model results. Uncertainties in the model results, expressed as 95percent confidence intervals of DDT concentrations in various environmental media, in different geographical locations, and at different points in time are typically between one and two orders of magnitude. An analysis of rank correlations between model inputs and predicted DDT concentrations indicates that emission estimates and degradation rate constants, in particular in the atmosphere, are the most influential model inputs. For DDT levels in the Arctic, temperature dependencies of substance properties are also influential parameters. A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach is used to update uncertain model inputs based on measurements of DDT in the field. The updating procedure suggests a lower value for half-life in air and a reduced range of uncertainty for KOW of DDT. As could be expected, the Bayesian updating yields model results that are closer to observations, and model uncertainties have decreased. The combined sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Monte Carlo approach provide new insight into important processes that govern the global fate and persistence of DDT in the environment.

Schenker, Urs; Scheringer, Martin; Sohn, Michael D.; Maddalena, Randy L.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Impacts of generalized uncertainty principle on black hole thermodynamics and Salecker-Wigner inequalities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We investigate the impacts of Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP) proposed by some approaches to quantum gravity such as String Theory and Doubly Special Relativity on black hole thermodynamics and Salecker-Wigner inequalities. Utilizing Heisenberg uncertainty principle, the Hawking temperature, Bekenstein entropy, specific heat, emission rate and decay time are calculated. As the evaporation entirely eats up the black hole mass, the specific heat vanishes and the temperature approaches infinity with an infinite radiation rate. It is found that the GUP approach prevents the black hole from the entire evaporation. It implies the existence of remnants at which the specific heat vanishes. The same role is played by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in constructing the hydrogen atom. We discuss how the linear GUP approach solves the entire-evaporation-problem. Furthermore, the black hole lifetime can be estimated using another approach; the Salecker-Wigner inequalities. Assuming that the quantum position uncertainty is limited to the minimum wavelength of measuring signal, Wigner second inequality can be obtained. If the spread of quantum clock is limited to some minimum value, then the modified black hole lifetime can be deduced. Based on linear GUP approach, the resulting lifetime difference depends on black hole relative mass and the difference between black hole mass with and without GUP is not negligible.

Tawfik, A., E-mail: a.tawfik@eng.mti.edu.eg [Egyptian Center for Theoretical Physics (ECTP), MTI University, 11571 Cairo (Egypt)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Energy Efficiency in the Low-SNR Regime under Queueing Constraints and Channel Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Energy Efficiency in the Low-SNR Regime under Queueing Constraints and Channel Uncertainty Deli Qiao, Mustafa Cenk Gursoy, and Senem Velipasalar Abstract Energy efficiency of fixed-rate transmissions probabilities. The optimal fraction of power allocated to training is identified. Energy efficiency

Gursoy, Mustafa Cenk

444

Energy and Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms for Complex Energy Systems Warren B. Powell  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, using a simple energy storage problem as a case application. Using this setting, we describe a common umbrella. The challenge of creating an efficient, sustainable energy system requires solvingEnergy and Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms for Complex Energy Systems Warren B. Powell

Powell, Warren B.

445

Propagating Uncertainty in Solar Panel Performance for Life Cycle Modeling in Early Stage Design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Propagating Uncertainty in Solar Panel Performance for Life Cycle Modeling in Early Stage Design. This work is conducted in the context of an amorphous photovoltaic (PV) panel, using data gathered from the National Solar Radiation Database, as well as realistic data collected from an experimental hardware setup

Yang, Maria

446

Bayesian methods for the quantification of uncertainties in syngas chemistry models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bayesian methods for the quantification of uncertainties in syngas chemistry models Kalen Braman, Todd Oliver and Venkat Raman, The University of Texas, Austin, Texas, 78712 Syngas chemistry modeling is an integral step toward the development of safe and ef- ficient syngas combustors. Although substantial effort

Raman, Venkat

447

ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE RADIATION DOSES FOR THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to provide more accurate and precise estimates of individual dose (and thus more precise estimates of radiation risk) for the members of the ETRC, a new dosimetric calculation system, the Techa River Dosimetry System-2009 (TRDS-2009) has been prepared. The deterministic version of the improved dosimetry system TRDS-2009D was basically completed in April 2009. Recent developments in evaluation of dose-response models in light of uncertain dose have highlighted the importance of different types of uncertainties in the development of individual dose estimates. These include uncertain parameters that may be either shared or unshared within the dosimetric cohort, and also the nature of the type of uncertainty as aleatory or epistemic and either classical or Berkson. This report identifies the nature of the various input parameters and calculational methods incorporated in the Techa River Dosimetry System (based on the TRDS-2009D implementation), with the intention of preparing a stochastic version to estimate the uncertainties in the dose estimates. This report reviews the equations, databases, and input parameters, and then identifies the authors interpretations of their general nature. It presents the approach selected so that the stochastic, Monte-Carlo, implementation of the dosimetry System - TRDS-2009MC - will provide useful information regarding the uncertainties of the doses.

Napier, Bruce A.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Shagina, N. B.

2009-10-23T23:59:59.000Z

448

A Baseline Approach for Detecting Sentences Containing Uncertainty Erik Tjong Kim Sang  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

us- ing 10-fold cross validation on the training data. This approach performed reasonably of the uncertain class contain one or more words which have been marked as indicator of uncertainty, the so: These results indicate that in mono- cytic cell lineage, HIV-1 could mimic some differentiation

Sang, Erik Tjong Kim

449

Envisioning uncertainty in geospatial information Kathryn Blackmond Laskey a,*, Edward J. Wright b  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Envisioning uncertainty in geospatial information Kathryn Blackmond Laskey a,*, Edward J. Wright b in revised form 17 May 2009 Accepted 20 May 2009 Available online 21 June 2009 Keywords: Geospatial reasoning Geographic information systems Geospatial metadata Probabilistic ontologies Multi-entity Bayesian networks

Valtorta, Marco

450

Uncertainties Associated with Theoretically Calculated N2-Broadened Half-Widths of H2O Lines  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to be calculated theoretically. The accuracy of these calculated values depends on many factors such as the line-shape1 Uncertainties Associated with Theoretically Calculated N2- Broadened Half-Widths of H2O Lines Q-offs used in the theoretical calculations, we have carried out extensive numerical calculations of the N2

Gamache, Robert R.

451

Australian Solar Council Solar 2012 conference, Melbourne. Estimation of Uncertainty in Automated Heliostat Alignment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

National University, Canberra, Australia. 2 National Solar Thermal Test Facility, Sandia National the end of the 20th Century, solar power has become a widely adopted sustainable energy solutionAustralian Solar Council Solar 2012 conference, Melbourne. Estimation of Uncertainty in Automated

452

Methodology for uncertainty estimation in NUREG-1150 (Draft): Conclusions of a review panel  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A review has been undertaken by a panel of experts, of the methodology for estimation of uncertainty in severe accident risk resulting from accidents to nuclear power plants as presented in the Draft NUREG-1150 report. This report provides detailed dicussions and conclusions resulting from this review process.

Kouts, H.; Cornell, A.; Farmer, R.; Hanauer, S.; Rasmussen, N.

1987-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Ex-plant consequence assessment for NUREG-1150: Models, typical results, uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The assessment of ex-plant consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms was performed using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). This paper will briefly discuss the following elements of MACCS consequence calculations: input data, phenomena modeled, computational framework, typical results, controlling phenomena, and uncertainties. Wherever possible, NUREG-1150 results will be used to illustrate the discussion. 28 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.

Sprung, J.L.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Facility Location under Demand Uncertainty: Response to a Large-scale Bioterror Attack  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Facility Location under Demand Uncertainty: Response to a Large-scale Bioterror Attack Abstract In the event of a catastrophic bio-terror attack, major urban centers need to effi- ciently distribute large of a hypothetical anthrax attack in Los Angeles County. Keywords: Capacitated facility location, distance

Dessouky, Maged

455

Tackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to minimize the energy payment for each user. Unlike most existing demand side management algorithms the peak-to-average ratio of the aggregate load demand. Keywords: Demand side management, energy real-time residential load management algorithm that takes into account load uncertainty in order

Mohsenian-Rad, Hamed

456

Tackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

payment for each user. Unlike most existing demand side management algorithms that assume perfect-to-average ratio of the aggregate load demand. Keywords: Demand side management, energy consumption con- trol, cost-time residential load management algorithm that takes into account load uncertainty in order to minimize the energy

Wong, Vincent

457

Sources of Uncertainty and Error in the Simulation of Flow in Porous Media  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that we have observations of oil production from an early time period (the \\past") and we use production is known but the geology which gives rise to it is not. The errors or uncertainty in predictions of future pro- duction depend on geological, physical, and numerical parameters, e.g. the geology

New York at Stoney Brook, State University of

458

Estimation of uncertainties due to the wind-induced noise in a screened microphone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for experimental assessment of wind turbine noise. The contribution of the wind noise introduces a biasEstimation of uncertainties due to the wind-induced noise in a screened microphone D. Ecotiere by the wind at a screened microphone. This noise originates from turbulences that come from the direct

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

459

Power Management under Uncertainty by Lagrangian Relaxation N. GroweKuska 1 ,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

costoptimal generation of electric power in a hydro thermal generation system is modeled of an electric hydrothermal based utility under data uncertainty. More specifically, we consider a power system popular in power optimization [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8]. Since the coupling constraints contain

Rmisch, Werner

460

A Two-Stage Modeling and Solution Framework for Multisite Midterm Planning under Demand Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that is addressed in this work. One of the key sources of uncertainty in any produc- tion-distribution system the procurement of raw materials to the distribution of the final products to the customers. In the prevailing and opera- tion of batch plants,1,3,4-8 issues concerning flexibility and reliability in process design,9

Maranas, Costas

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Characterization and assessment of uncertainty in San Juan Reservoir Santa Rosa Field  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study proposes a new, easily applied method to quantify uncertainty in production forecasts for a volumetric gas reservoir based on a material balance model (p/z vs. Gp). The new method uses only observed data and mismatches between regression...

Becerra, Ernesto Jose

2005-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

462

Robust Turbo Equalization Under Channel Uncertainties Nargiz Kalantarova, Suleyman S. Kozat and Alper T. Erdogan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robust Turbo Equalization Under Channel Uncertainties Nargiz Kalantarova, Suleyman S. Kozat and Alper T. Erdogan Koc University, Istanbul, 34450, Turkey Abstract-- Robust turbo equalization over is investigated. The turbo equal- ization framework proposed in this paper contains a linear equalizer (LE

Erdogan, Alper Tunga

463

Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact]. The design wave overtopping in a context of changing climate cannot be deterministically predicted due defense structure due to (1) uncertain elevation of the mean water level and (2) uncertain level of storm

Boyer, Edmond

464

Residential Demand Response under Uncertainty Paul Scott and Sylvie Thiebaux and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Residential Demand Response under Uncertainty Paul Scott and Sylvie Thi´ebaux and Menkes van den stochastic optimisation in residential demand response. 1 Introduction Electricity consumption in residential participate in smart grid activities such as demand response where loads are shifted to times favourable

Thiébaux, Sylvie

465

Dealing with Uncertainty in the Smart Grid: A Learning Game Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Dealing with Uncertainty in the Smart Grid: A Learning Game Approach Hélène Le Cadre Jean-Sébastien Bedo Abstract In this article, the smart grid is modeled as a decentralized and hierarchical network such as renewables. These predictions will then be used as inputs to optimize the smart grid operations [2

466

Dealing with Uncertainty in the Smart Grid: A Learning Game Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Dealing with Uncertainty in the Smart Grid: A Learning Game Approach Hélène Le Cadre Jean-Sébastien Bedo Abstract In this article, the smart grid is modeled as a decentralized and hierarchical network will then be used as inputs to optimize the smart grid operations [2]. In practice, it is increasingly apparent

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

467

ERDC/CRRELTR-06-16 Propagation of Uncertainties in Sea Ice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the global heat bal- ance. This capability is attributed to the unique location of sea ice at the interface in the polar region has precipitated increased efforts to measure sea ice thickness as an index for global heatERDC/CRRELTR-06-16 Propagation of Uncertainties in Sea Ice Thickness Calculations from Basin

Geiger, Cathleen

468

Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.

HELTON,JON CRAIG; DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; JOHNSON,J.D.

2000-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

469

Uncertainties in using the hodograph method to retrieve gravity wave characteristics from individual soundings  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in using the hodograph method to retrieve gravity wave characteristics from individual soundings Fuqing Zhang and Shuguang Wang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University] The hodograph method is commonly used to retrieve inertio-gravity wave characteristics from individual vertical

Plougonven, Riwal

470

American Wind Energy Association, Denver, May 2005 Uncertainties in Results of Measure-Correlate-Predict Analyses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

American Wind Energy Association, Denver, May 2005 Uncertainties in Results of Measure Wind Energy Association, Denver, May 2005 Statistical models are then investigated that estimate-Correlate-Predict Analyses Anthony L. Rogers, Ph. D.* John W. Rogers, M.S.** James F. Manwell, Ph. D.* *Renewable Energy

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

471

1 INTRODUCTION Uncertainty analysis is a fundamental part of the risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- precision due to lack of knowledge and information on the system. The former type of uncertainty is of- ten. In Section 2, some basic concepts about possi- bility theory are summarized; in Section 3, the de- tails about the integrated propagation framework are given; in Section 4, approaches for constructing pos

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

472

APPROACHES TO EVALUATE WATER QUALITY MODEL PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY FOR ADAPTIVE TMDL IMPLEMENTATION1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is particularly handy for that task. (KEY TERMS: total maximum daily load; water quality model; ecological quality management and decisions such as total maximum daily load (TMDL) determinations (NRC 2001). ModelsAPPROACHES TO EVALUATE WATER QUALITY MODEL PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY FOR ADAPTIVE TMDL IMPLEMENTATION1

473

Uncertainties in Nuclear Matrix Elements for Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainties in Nuclear Matrix Elements for Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Jonathan Engel Abstract. I briefly review calculations of the matrix elements governing neutrinoless double-beta decay, in broad terms, strategies for reducing systematic error. 1. Introduction Neutrinoless double-beta (0

Engel, Jonathan

474

Water Managers' Strategies for Addressing Uncertainty in Their Use of GIS for Decision-Making  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Water Managers' Strategies for Addressing Uncertainty in Their Use of GIS for Decision-Making Jason for a Desert City GIS and Decision-Making Water managers cited a variety of uses of GIS within their respective to avoid conflict with land owners and critical habitat. Figure 3. GIS Uses Cited by Water Managers 0 2 4 6

Hall, Sharon J.

475

Technology Decisions Under Architectural Uncertainty: Informing Investment Decisions Through Tradespace Exploration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Decisions Under Architectural Uncertainty: Informing Investment Decisions Through§ Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 DOI: 10.2514/1.A32562 Although NASA has-term investment in the enabling technologies that will be required for these future systems. Given

de Weck, Olivier L.

476

Two--mode optical tomograms: a possible experimental check of the Robertson uncertainty relations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The experimental check of two--mode Robertson uncertainty relations and inequalities for highest quadrature moments is suggested by using homodyne photon detection. The relation between optical tomograms and symplectic tomograms is used to connect the tomographic dispersion matrix and the quadrature components dispersion matrix of the two--mode field states.

V. I. Man'ko; G. Marmo; A. Simoni; F. Ventriglia

2012-02-02T23:59:59.000Z

477

Using the Wild Bootstrap to Quantify Uncertainty in DTI Brandon Whitcher  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using the Wild Bootstrap to Quantify Uncertainty in DTI Brandon Whitcher David S. Tuch Jonathan J; confidence interval; fiber orientation; fractional anisotropy Running head. The wild bootstrap in DTI 1 #12. In contrast to the regular bootstrap, the wild bootstrap method can be applied to such protocols in which

Whitcher, Brandon

478

Uncertainties in Air Exchange using Continuous-Injection, Long-Term  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pollutants from indoor sources as well as conditioning the air for occupant comfort. In many buildingsIn review 1 d Uncertainties in Air Exchange using Continuous-Injection, Long-Term Sampling Tracer of Healthy Homes and Lead Hazard Control through Interagency Agreement I-PHI-01070; by the U.S. Environmental

479

Model reduction of systems exhibiting two-time scale behavior or parametric uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

exhibiting two-time scale behavior as well as parametric uncertainty has received little attention to date. This work addresses these types of problems in detail. Systems with two-time scale behavior can be described by differential-algebraic equations (DAEs...

Sun, Chuili

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

480

A Dynamic Inventory Control Policy Under Demand, Yield and Lead Time Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Dynamic Inventory Control Policy Under Demand, Yield and Lead Time Uncertainties Mohamed Zied@lgi.ecp.fr, dallery@lgi.ecp.fr) ABSTRACT In this paper, we analyze a single-stage and single-item inventory control it. Keywords: inventory control, forecasts, cycle service level, fill rate, safety stock, policy

Boyer, Edmond

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "uncertainty high uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Energy-saving technology adoption under uncertainty in the residential sector  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Energy-saving technology adoption under uncertainty in the residential sector Dorothée Charlier in a context of growing energy demand. This phenomenon is in part due to the importance of residential energy: in France, buildings account for 23% of CO2 emissions, of which 70% are generated by the residential sector

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

482

An Investigation into the Relationship Between Type-2 FOU Size and Environmental Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of automated control type-2 fuzzy logic based controllers will out perform the simpler type-1 varieties due, Fuzzy Control, Uncertainty I. INTRODUCTION A fuzzy logic system maps single discrete inputs into a fuzzy performance penalties for incorrectly sized systems. Keywords: Interval Type-2 Fuzzy, Robot Boat control

Aickelin, Uwe

483

Sources of uncertainty in ice core data A contribution to the Workshop on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sources of uncertainty in ice core data A contribution to the Workshop on Reducing and Representing - 11, 2008 Eric J. Steig, University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195 1. Background Ice cores provide of these species (among them aerosols and greenhouse gases, and of course snow accumulation). Ice core records

484

Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for Nondestructive Assay of Transuranic (TRU) Waste at the WRAP Facility  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report examines the contributing factors to NDA measurement uncertainty at WRAP The significance of each factor on the TMU is analyzed and a final method is given for determining the TMU for NDA measurements at WRAP. As more data becomes available and WRAP gains in operational experience this report will be reviewed semi annually and updated as necessary.

WILLS, C.E.

2000-01-06T23:59:59.000Z

485

Two-Settlement Systems for Electricity Markets: Zonal Aggregation Under Network Uncertainty and Market Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, wholesale electricity markets have gone through fundamental changes in the U.S. and around the world.1PWP-091 Two-Settlement Systems for Electricity Markets: Zonal Aggregation Under Network Uncertainty and Market Power Rajnish Kamat and Shmuel S. Oren February, 2002 This paper is part of the working papers

California at Berkeley. University of

486

Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments, 2008 1 Introduction Reservoir simulators are important and widely-used tools for oil reservoir for reservoirs, where the model inputs are physical parameters, such as the permeability and porosity of various

Oakley, Jeremy

487

Multi-Fidelity Uncertainty Quantification: Application to a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Under an  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Introduction Quantifying the response of a wind turbine to an extreme wind gust is an important designMulti-Fidelity Uncertainty Quantification: Application to a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Under an Extreme Gust A. Santiago Padr´on , Juan J. Alonso and Francisco Palacios Stanford University, Stanford, CA

Alonso, Juan J.

488

Uncertainty in Future Carbon Emissions: A Preliminary Exploration Mort D. Webster  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Uncertainty in Future Carbon Emissions: A Preliminary Exploration Mort D. Webster Abstract of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due distributions of carbon emissions from the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. From the specific

489

Comparison of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous CFD Fuel Models for Phase I of the IAEA CRP on HTR Uncertainties Benchmark  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) evaluation of homogeneous and heterogeneous fuel models was performed as part of the Phase I calculations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinate Research Program (CRP) on High Temperature Reactor (HTR) Uncertainties in Modeling (UAM). This study was focused on the nominal localized stand-alone fuel thermal response, as defined in Ex. I-3 and I-4 of the HTR UAM. The aim of the stand-alone thermal unit-cell simulation is to isolate the effect of material and boundary input uncertainties on a very simplified problem, before propagation of these uncertainties are performed in subsequent coupled neutronics/thermal fluids phases on the benchmark. In many of the previous studies for high temperature gas cooled reactors, the volume-averaged homogeneous mixture model of a single fuel compact has been applied. In the homogeneous model, the Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles in the fuel compact were not modeled directly and an effective thermal conductivity was employed for the thermo-physical properties of the fuel compact. On the contrary, in the heterogeneous model, the uranium carbide (UCO), inner and outer pyrolytic carbon (IPyC/OPyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) layers of the TRISO fuel particles are explicitly modeled. The fuel compact is modeled as a heterogeneous mixture of TRISO fuel kernels embedded in H-451 matrix graphite. In this study, a steady-state and transient CFD simulations were performed with both homogeneous and heterogeneous models to compare the thermal characteristics. The nominal values of the input parameters are used for this CFD analysis. In a future study, the effects of input uncertainties in the material properties and boundary parameters will be investigated and reported.

Gerhard Strydom; Su-Jong Yoon

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Automated verification of model-based programs under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Highly robust embedded systems have been enabled through software executives that have the ability to reason about their environment. Those that employ the model-based autonomy paradigm automatically diagnose and plan ...

Mahtab, Tazeen, 1981-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Parameter and topology uncertainty for optimal experimental design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A major effort of systems biology is the building of accurate and detailed models of biological systems. Because biological models are large, complex, and highly nonlinear, building accurate models requires large quantities ...

Hagen, David Robert

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z