National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for trade forecast vol

  1. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  2. 1872 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 11, NO. 5, MAY 2012 Power-Trading in Wireless Communications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jayaweera, Sudharman K.

    1872 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 11, NO. 5, MAY 2012 Power-Trading the concept of power trading in wireless communications. We present a business model using sealed bid procurement auction based game theory for power-trading in cooperative wireless communication with quality

  3. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  4. 1182 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN SIGNAL PROCESSING, VOL. 8, NO. 6, DECEMBER 2014 Electricity Market Forecasting via Low-Rank

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Georgios

    for electricity market inference. Day-ahead price forecasting is cast as a low-rank kernel learning problem congestion corridors" [39]. In a generic electricity market setup, an ISO collects bids submitted1182 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN SIGNAL PROCESSING, VOL. 8, NO. 6, DECEMBER 2014 Electricity

  5. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  6. Convergence to monetary equilibrium: computational simulation of a trading post economy with transaction costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hu, Xue; Whang, Yu-Jung; Zhang, Qiaoxi

    2010-01-01

    by Household [i,j] at Trading Pose {k,w} vol(i,j): Totalin a Walrasian Trading Post Example”, Economics Letters,simulation of a trading post economy with transaction costs

  7. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  8. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  9. Trade Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ashford, Nicholas A.

    2014-01-01

    In an otherwise insightful and thoughtful article, Sebastian Pfotenhauer (Trade Policy Is Science Policy,” Issues, Fall 2013) might better have entitled his contribution “Trade Policy Needs to Be Reconciled with Science ...

  10. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol. 19, no. 6, pp.16 independent data banks,” Solar Energy, vol. 80, no. 4,data,” Final Report of International Energy Agency Solar

  11. River Basin Economics and Management: International Trade, Allocation and Quality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kong, Wen

    2015-01-01

    Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  12. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    the cloud index,” Solar Energy, vol. 81, no. 2, pp. 280 –Cover Indices,” ASME Journal of Solar Energy Engineering (inHorizontal Irradiance,” submitted to Solar Energy, 2012.

  13. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)synthetic hourly radiation,” Solar Energy, vol. 49, pp. 67–for supplementing solar radiation network data,” Final

  14. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  15. Trade and institutions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahakitsiri, Doungdao

    2012-01-01

    3.4 Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions . . . . . . .The E?ects of Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions onMore Bilateral Trade than Free-Trade Agreement Members? ,”

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  17. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  18. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  19. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VERY LARGE SCALE INTEGRATION (VLSI) SYSTEMS, VOL. 12, NO. 3, MARCH 2004 299 Trading Off Transient Fault Tolerance and Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tessier, Russell

    Trading Off Transient Fault Tolerance and Power Consumption in Deep Submicron (DSM) VLSI Circuits Atul Abstract--High fault tolerance for transient faults and low- power consumption are key objectives, defibrillators, and other electronic gadgets must not only be designed for fault tolerance but also for ultra-low-power

  20. Gulf and Caribbean Research Vol 23, 37-48, 2011 Manuscript received, December 7, 2010; accepted, January 13, 2011 TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN GEAR SELECTIVITY AND LOGISTICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , January 13, 2011 37 TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN GEAR SELECTIVITY AND LOGISTICS WHEN SAMPLING NEKTON FROM SHALLOW logistical issues and the catch composition, density, and size structure of nekton samples collected measures of density and species composi- tion are also logistically the most difficult to operate (e

  1. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  2. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  3. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  4. Oceanography Vol.22, No.2194 Operational Use and Impact of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Long, David G.

    Oceanography Vol.22, No.2194 Operational Use and Impact of Satellite Remotely Sensed Ocean Surface Vector Winds in the Marine Warning and Forecasting Environment Oceanography Vol.22, No.2194 By PaU l S ThisarticlehasbeenpublishedinOceanography,Volume22,Number2,aquarterlyjournalofTheOceanographySociety.©2009byTheOceanography

  5. ANALYSIS OF HUMIDITY HALOS AROUND TRADE WIND CUMULUS CLOUDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , in addition to those of the clouds themselves, which have an impact on the energy balance of the atmosphereANALYSIS OF HUMIDITY HALOS AROUND TRADE WIND CUMULUS CLOUDS M.-L. Lu, J. Wang, A. Freedman, H. H [vol. 60, 1041-1059 (2003)] Environmental Sciences Department Atmospheric Sciences Division Brookhaven

  6. Essays in international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romalis, John

    2001-01-01

    This thesis is a collection of essays on the effect of trade costs on international trade. Chapter 1 derives and empirically examines how factor proportions determine the structure of commodity trade when international ...

  7. NAFTA, Trade, and Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blecker, Robert A.; Esquivel, Gerardo

    2010-01-01

    their intention to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) betweenthen called the largest free trade area in the world. Theof the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994,

  8. Is Free Trade Obsolete?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaufman, Charles S.

    1993-01-01

    BOOK REVIEW IS FREE TRADE OBSOLETE? MANAGING THE WORLDremains from the ideal of free trade. The GATT, for example,by entering ICAs IS FREE TRADE OBSOLETE? with foreign

  9. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  10. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  11. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  12. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  13. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  14. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  15. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  16. Int. J. Complex Systems in Science vol. 1(2) (2011), pp. 202208

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diaz-Guilera, Albert

    2011-01-01

    and financial flows have been increased and have appeared new emergent economies. Free trade and increasedInt. J. Complex Systems in Science vol. 1(2) (2011), pp. 202­208 Trade synchronization in the World Trade Web P. Erola1, , A. D´iaz-Guilera2 , S. G´omez1 and A. Arenas1 1 Departament d'Enginyeria Inform

  17. Forthcoming in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Vol. 25 (June 2013), pp. 33-47

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlini, David

    period (or after the formation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, in 1994), withoutForthcoming in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Vol. 25 (June 2013), pp. 33-47 Trade of the balance of payments (BP) constraint can explain the slowdown in Mexico's growth after its trade

  18. Emissions Trading and Social Justice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Farber, Daniel A

    2011-01-01

    David  M.  Driesen,  Does  Emissions  Trading  Encourage  Jason  Coburn,  Emissions  Trading   and   Environmental  Szambelan,  U.S.  Emissions  Trading  Markets  for  SO 2  

  19. Trade and Investment Perspectives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Riley, Shawn J.

    Why China? Trade and Investment Perspectives Jeanne Broad Director, International Trade Management Michigan exports to China) Chemicals $368 million Industrial machinery $347 million Computers and electronics $237 million Electrical Equipment $148 million Fabricated Metal Products $140 million Waste

  20. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  1. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  2. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  3. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  4. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  5. Trade, globalization and uneven development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the free trade doctrine, presenting capitalism as entailing, but capable of overcoming, uneven geographical rationalizing the free trade doctrine isolate trade, mobilizing a narrow sociospatial ontology. Marxisant trade. By contrast, attending to the entanglements of trade, geographical political economy can decenter the free

  6. Tough Choices: Determinants of Senator's Trade Votes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aldrich, John; Brinegar, Adam; Kramer, Claire; Merolla, Jennifer

    2006-01-01

    Dennis P. Quinn. 1994. “Free Trade, Fair Trade, StrategicThe Senate and Free Trade. ” American Journal of Politicalthat benefit from free trade. These competing claims speak

  7. WORLD TRADE Published by

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Einmahl, Uwe

    How Vulnerable Is India's Trade to Possible Border Carbon Adjustments in the EU? Kasturi Das 37 Distorted Trade Imperils the Sino-European Partnership Jonathan Holslag 221 Bridging the Abyss? Lessons from Global and Regional Integration of Ukraine Vitaliy Pogoretskyy & Sergiy Beketov 239 #12;#12;Unravelling

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  10. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  11. Essays on Forecasting and Hedging Models in the Oil Market and Causality Analysis in the Korean Stock Market 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Hankyeung

    2012-10-19

    , the nature of forecasting crude oil prices based on financial data for the oil and oil product market is examined. As crack spread and oil-related Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have enabled more consumers and investors to gain access to the crude oil...

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  13. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  14. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  15. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  16. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  17. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  18. Carbon Trading Protocols for Geologic Sequestration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoversten, Shanna

    2009-01-01

    EU ETS: European Union Emissions Trading System GHG: Greenstarts operating an emissions trading scheme (ETS) similarGovernments operating emissions trading systems face the

  19. Essays on Trade and Production Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noguera, Guillermo Marcelo

    2011-01-01

    I also collect data on free trade agreements and tariffs andand negatively related to free trade agreements andto be less responsive to free trade agreements and tariffs

  20. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  1. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  2. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  3. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  4. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  5. International Trade and Competitiveness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    importance for the U.S. forest products industry, with paper and wood products exports accounting for more exports of pulp and paper. AF&PA supports free and fair trade. In an increasingly globalized market, it is critical for the U.S. paper and wood products manufacturing industry to achieve unrestricted access

  6. Essays on trade, CO?, and the environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shapiro, Joseph S

    2013-01-01

    The first chapter of this thesis uses a general equilibrium model of trade and the environment to investigate two questions. First, how do the gains from trade compare against the environmental costs of trade? Trade can ...

  7. North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade North America: Regulation of International Electricity Trade North America: Regulation of International Electricity...

  8. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028677 Model Calibration and Automated Trading Agent for Euro

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    technical analysis indicators. This approach takes advantage of boosting's feature selection capability This approach has been applied to forecast and trade S&P 500 index futures [58, 15], the Warsaw stock price index 20 (WIG20) futures [60], and Korea stock index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures [38]. Hamid and Iqbal [33

  9. International Trade of Biofuels (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-05-01

    In recent years, the production and trade of biofuels has increased to meet global demand for renewable fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel contribute much of this trade because they are the most established biofuels. Their growth has been aided through a variety of policies, especially in the European Union, Brazil, and the United States, but ethanol trade and production have faced more targeted policies and tariffs than biodiesel. This fact sheet contains a summary of the trade of biofuels among nations, including historical data on production, consumption, and trade.

  10. Essays on International Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lugovskyy, Oleksandr

    2013-12-31

    Essays on International Trade By Copyright 2013 Oleksandr Lugovskyy Submitted to the Department of Economics and the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Kansas in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor... of Philosophy Committee members Ted Juhl, Chairperson Paul Comolli Joseph Sicilian Alexandre Skiba Bozenna Pasik-Duncan Date defended: August 16, 2013 The Dissertation Committee for Oleksandr Lugovskyy certifies that this is the approved version of the following...

  11. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  12. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  13. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  14. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  15. The Effects of Border Violence on U.S.-Mexican Cattle Trade 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahn, Hannah

    2015-08-10

    of the Mexican beef exports. Juan and Williams (2010) states that for 2011, Mexican beef exports are forecast to increase 20 percent due to expanded market access into Russia, China, and Singapore. As Mexican beef exports increases, the decline of Mexico’s... of economic growth in the two countries, reductions in trade barriers, and changing technology (Juan and Williams 2010). For the cattle industry, Mexico has the historic importance serving as a key exporter of feeder cattle to the United States...

  16. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  17. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  18. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  19. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  1. 350 IEEE JOURNAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS, VOL. 5, NO. 1, JANUARY 2015 Optimal Dispatch of Residential Photovoltaic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Georgios

    350 IEEE JOURNAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS, VOL. 5, NO. 1, JANUARY 2015 Optimal Dispatch of Residential Photovoltaic Inverters Under Forecasting Uncertainties Emiliano Dall'Anese, Member, IEEE, Sairaj V. Dhople--Efforts to ensure reliable operation of existing low- voltage distribution systems with high photovoltaic (PV

  2. ACEEE Int. J. on Electrical and Power Engineering, Vol. 01, No. 03, Dec 2010 2010 ACEEE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    . With an accurate forecast, the basic operating functions like thermal and hydrothermal UC, economic dispatch, fuelACEEE Int. J. on Electrical and Power Engineering, Vol. 01, No. 03, Dec 2010 64 © 2010 ACEEE DOI of EEE, Pondicherry Engineering College, Pondicherry ­ 605 014 E-mail: asir_70@pec.edu Abstract

  3. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  4. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  5. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  6. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  7. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  8. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  9. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  10. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  11. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  12. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  13. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  14. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  15. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  16. WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL AND OIL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR · FISH ON OF FISH MEAL AND OIL , ESPECIALLY DUR ING 1953 TO 1959, THE PRI NC IPAL MARKET S FOR THE PRODUCTS- DICATE WHAT IS INCLUDED BESIDES FISHMEAL AND FISH BODY OIL. #12;WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  18. POTENTIAL LIMITS IMPOSED BY THE MULTILATERAL TRADING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    and international level. In particular, flexibility mechanisms-emissions trading system, joint implementation (JI. In particular, the Protocol adopted flexibility mechanisms-emissions trading system (Article 17), joint

  19. Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Presentation on Hydrogen...

  20. The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McLean, B.J.; Rico, R.

    1995-12-31

    The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical {open_quotes}command and control{close_quotes} infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The {open_quotes}command and control{close_quotes} model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programs have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions).

  1. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  2. Replicating the carry trade through an exchange traded fund

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shan, Jonathan (Jonathan W.)

    2013-01-01

    There is an overarching belief that the carry trade is a simple investment strategy based on the popular mantra of buying low and selling high. However, in reality, there are several factors that need to be taken into ...

  3. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  4. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  5. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  6. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  7. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  8. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  9. The Value of Emissions Trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.

    This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing attention on a here-to-fore neglected component: its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and ...

  10. Emissions Trading: A Feasible Analysis for UBC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emissions Trading: A Feasible Analysis for UBC Vivian Hoffman, J Chisholm I. Introduction The GVRD environmental objectives are achieved. Emissions reduction credit trading (or emissions trading) is an example Valley (LFV). Section III describes the market-based instruments of emissions trading and facility

  11. Cap-and-Trade A. Denny Ellerman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MIT CEEEPR Cap-and-Trade A. Denny Ellerman Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emissions Trading for Energy and Environmental Policy Research #12;MIT CEEEPR Two Types of Air Emissions Trading · Credit- · OTC/SIP-Call NOx Budget Programs: 1999- · EU's CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme: 2005- ­ The first CO2

  12. NIST Standards in Trade Workshops Increase

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NIST Standards in Trade Workshops Increase Trade Opportunities and Exports for U.S. Industry Since 1995, U.S. industry has looked to the NIST Standards in Trade (SIT) Workshop Program to provide opportunities for cooperation on topics related to standards, conformity assessment and trade that are important

  13. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  14. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  15. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  1. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  2. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  3. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  4. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  5. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  6. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  7. United States Trade and Foreign Labor Interests: The Effects on Foreign Labor of Linking Trade with Labor Provisions in Bilateral U.S. Free Trade Agreements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Soleimani, Jonathan

    2008-01-01

    Global Labor Standards and Free Trade: The Siamese Twins ofbilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) withyear’s deadlock on the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas

  8. ALSNews Vol. 327

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Vol. 327 ALSNews Vol. 327 Print Wednesday, 25 January 2012 00:00 Direct Kinetic Measurements of a Criegee Intermediate "Criegee intermediates" are elusive molecules that play a...

  9. Trade, Environment and Sustainable Development Spring 2006 Topics in Trade Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    a common myth among environmentalists: the case for free trade ignores capital flows parallels between the case for free trade and the case for free investment international vs interregional trade #12;Trade, Environment and Sustainable Development Spring 2006 Topics in Trade Theory sources of gains

  10. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  11. Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 1, January 2012, 1114 Financial engineering at Columbia University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hone, James

    Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 1, January 2012, 11­14 Financial engineering at Columbia of quantitative finance, including derivative securi- ties, risk management, portfolio optimization, trading. Photographs by Mark Broadie. Quantitative Finance ISSN 1469­7688 print/ISSN 1469­7696 online ß 2012 Taylor

  12. Journal of Information Technology Impact Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 89-104, 2001

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ©2001 JITI Journal of Information Technology Impact Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 89-104, 2001 Impact trading relationships depend not only on sophisticated information and communication technologies (ICTs-commerce technologies is not likely to enable a reduction in overall transaction costs that is sufficient to facilitate

  13. Antidotes To Regionalism: Responses to Trade Diversion Effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steinberg, Richard H.

    1993-01-01

    clients. Nonh American Free Trade Agreement. Dec 17. 1992.tlie Noith Aineikan Free Trade Agreement until line UnitedOF THi NORTH AMERICAN* FREE-TRADE AGREEMENT. U S I T C

  14. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  15. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  16. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  17. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  18. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  19. From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dungey, Mardi; Henry, Olan; McKenzie, Michael

    will use small limit orders to search for trading counter parties. Once they have identified a dealer who has indicated a willingness to trade, they will enter into quantity negotiations, i.e. a workup will take place. This process affords greater anonymity... the dataset and characterises the data in terms of transaction size, intensity and workups. A comprehensive examination of the data is undertaken and the analysis suggests that the information content of news arrival, volume and workup time each have a role...

  20. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  1. Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kroujiline, Dimitri; Ushanov, Dmitry; Sharov, Sergey V; Govorkov, Boris

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we further develop the news-driven analytic model of the stock market derived in Gusev et al. (2015). This enables us to capture market dynamics at various timescales and shed light on mechanisms underlying certain market behaviors such as transitions between bull- and bear markets and the self-similar behavior of price changes. We investigate the model and show that the market is nearly efficient on timescales shorter than one day, adjusting quickly to incoming news, but is inefficient on longer timescales, where news may have a long-lasting nonlinear impact on dynamics attributable to a feedback mechanism acting over these horizons. Using the model, we design the prototypes of algorithmic strategies that utilize news flow, quantified and measured, as the only input to trade on market return forecasts over multiple horizons, from days to months. The backtested res...

  2. International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

    2012-01-01

    agreements, trade policy, and environmental policy in an1 Introduction 2 Trade policy and environmental policy 3 The2 Trade policy and environmental policy Environmentalists

  3. Emissions Trading, Electricity Industry Restructuring, and Investment in Pollution Abatement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowlie, Meredith

    2005-01-01

    Foss, B . "Carbon Emissions Trading is New Weapon to BattleBehavior and the Emission Trading Market, Resources andof Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading." The Journal of

  4. BP's Perspective on Emissions Purdue Emissions Trading Workshop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    BP's Perspective on Emissions Trading Purdue Emissions Trading Workshop April 30, 2010 Mark - Government policies can create a carbon price via three primary mechanisms: - Emissions trading (BP's strong

  5. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 82, No. 5, pp. 1389--1397, 2004 1389 Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pu, Zhaoxia

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 82, No. 5, pp. 1389--1397, 2004 1389 Mesoscale rainfall data into a mesoscale model, using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR on mesoscale forecasts (e.g., Supertyphoon Paka in 1997 (Pu et al. 2002)), as the global analysis provide

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  9. N E W S F R O M T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y I N S T I T U T E ENERGYnotesENERGYnotesVol. 3, Issue 4December 2005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENERGYnotesENERGYnotesVol. 3, Issue 4December 2005 Emissions Credit Trading Programs: E V A L U A T I N G P emissions trading programs, a UC Energy Institute researcher is exam- ining how existing programs efficient and environmentally benign power sources to meet society's ever-growing thirst for energy

  10. Essays on international trade and investment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tang, Heiwai

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on international trade and investment. In the first essay, I study how cross-country differences in labor market institutions shape the pattern of international trade with a focus ...

  11. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

    2013-01-01

    coal, oil, gas) to international trade in products (Davis etas traded oil). Globally, consumption of products was moreproducts consumed in many of the same countries increasingly rely on coal, oil and

  12. Emission trading with absolute and intensity caps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Jaemin

    2005-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol introduced emission trading to help reduce the cost of compliances for the Annex B countries that have absolute caps. However, we need to expand the emission trading to cover developing countries in order ...

  13. Essays on trades and security prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Obizhaeva, Anna

    2007-01-01

    This thesis consists of three chapters that investigate the complex relation between security prices and trades of market participants. In the first chapter, I study the evolution of stock prices after trades with different ...

  14. Essays on Trade and Production Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noguera, Guillermo Marcelo

    2011-01-01

    Trade in 2 Augmented Gravity: Accounting for Production 2.13 Production Sharing and Trade Costs Over 3.1of the Database . . . . . . . 3.3 Production Sharing over

  15. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  16. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  17. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  18. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  19. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  20. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  1. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  2. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  3. Emissions trading: principles and practice. 2nd

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tietenberg, T.H.

    2006-02-15

    The author demonstrates how emissions trading became an attractive alternative to command-and-control policies that would have required the EPA to disallow the opening of new plants in the middle of the recession-burdened 1970s. His examination of the evolution of this system includes, among other applications, the largest multinational trading system ever conceived, the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EUETG), and the use of emissions trading in the Kyoto Protocol.

  4. SBIR and Global Trade Summit Presentation

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presentation from the July 26, 2012 trade summit in Uncasville, Connecticut, presented by the Small Business Innovation Research program.

  5. ICTSD Project on Trade and Sustainable Land Management International Centre for Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Sustainable Development Selected Issue Briefs ICTSD Programme on Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development Trade and Sustainable Land Management in Drylands August 2007 #12;#12;August 2007 ICTSD Programme on Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development Trade and Sustainable Land Management in Drylands Selected Issue

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  7. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  8. Oil Trading Simon Basey / November 28, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheldon, Nathan D.

    Oil Trading Simon Basey / November 28, 2013 #12;2 What does IST do? Imports crude oil and other Markets BP's equity crude oil, NGLs and natural gas Generates entrepreneurial trading income Manages BP trader, focussing on US crude oil futures. How would you trade the following timeline of events: a

  9. For Fair Trade "We can compete

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    everywhere. To learn more about Canada's lumber subsidies, and how to restore fair and free lumber tradeFor Fair Trade "We can compete against any lumber industry in the world, but we can't compete of subsidizing Canadian lumber production. These unfair trade practices have caused hundreds of U.S. lumber mill

  10. The Trade and Climate Change Joint Agenda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abstract Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that haveThe Trade and Climate Change Joint Agenda CEPS Working Document No. 295/June 2008 Thomas L. Brewer............................................................................ 6 3.2 Coverage of the Multilateral Climate and Trade Regimes

  11. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  12. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  13. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  14. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  15. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  16. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  17. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  18. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  19. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  20. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  1. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  2. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  3. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  4. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  5. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  6. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  7. North American Free Trade and U.S. Agriculture 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rosson, C. Parr; Benson, Geoffrey A.; Moulton, Kirby S.; Sanders, Larry D.

    1999-06-23

    -term view of U.S.-Mexico trade and the implications of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)....

  8. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  9. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  10. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  12. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  13. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  14. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  15. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  16. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  17. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  18. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  19. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  20. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  1. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  2. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  3. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 79-102,1996 Noncancer Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shlyakhter, Ilya

    Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 79-102,1996 Noncancer Risk Assessment uncertainty in noncancer risk assessment will be useful to risk managers who face complex trade-offs between, noncancer risk assessment INTRODUCTION The USEPA's current approach to noncancer risk assessment is coming

  4. Draft framework for watershed-based trading

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-05-30

    Effluent trading is an innovative way for water quality agencies and community stakeholders to develop common-sense, cost-effective solutions for water quality problems in their watersheds. Trading can allow communities to grow and prosper while retaining their commitment to water quality. The bulk of this framework discusses effluent trading in watersheds. Remaining sections discuss transactions that, while not technically fulfilling the definition of `effluent` trade, do involve the exchange of valued water quality or other ecological improvements between partners responding to market initiatives. This document therefore includes activities such as trades within a facility (intra-plant trading) and wetland mitigation banking, effluent trading/watersheds/watershed management/water quality protection/water quality management.

  5. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  6. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    model performance,” Solar Energy, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 125–global solar radiation,” Solar Energy, vol. 78, no. 6, pp.solar radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol. 81, no. 6, pp.

  7. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  8. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  10. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  11. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  13. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  14. Multilateral, regional and bilateral energy trade governance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leal-Arcas, Rafael; Grasso, Costantino; Rios, Juan Alemany )

    2014-12-01

    The current international energy trade governance system is fragmented and multi-layered. Streamlining it for greater legal cohesiveness and international political and economic cooperation would promote global energy security. The current article explores three levels of energy trade governance: multilateral, regional and bilateral. Most energy-rich countries are part of the multilateral trading system, which is institutionalized by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The article analyzes the multilateral energy trade governance system by focusing on the WTO and energy transportation issues. Regionally, the article focuses on five major regional agreements and their energy-related aspects and examines the various causes that explain the proliferation of regional trade agreements, their compatibility with WTO law, and then provides several examples of regional energy trade governance throughout the world. When it comes to bilateral energy trade governance, this article only addresses the European Union’s (EU) bilateral energy trade relations. The article explores ways in which gaps could be filled and overlaps eliminated whilst remaining true to the high-level normative framework, concentrating on those measures that would enhance EU energy security.

  15. U.S. Timber Production, Trade, Consumption,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    and Technology Assessment Unit at the Forest Products Laboratory. Chris McKeever created computer files managers, forest industries, trade associations, forestry schools, renewable resource organizations

  16. International Electricity Trade - Open Access | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    DOE has consistently expressed its policy that international electricity trade should be subject to the same principles of comparable open access and non-discrimination that apply...

  17. Alternative Trading Arrangements for Intermittent Renewable Power...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Alternative Trading Arrangements for Intermittent Renewable Power: A Centralised Renewables Market and Other Concepts Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name:...

  18. Essays on International Finance and Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Li

    2009-01-01

    Turkey UK Canada Mexico Norway Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxForecast horizon Canada Norway Mexico Turkey MSE MAE DIR MSEForecast horizon Canada Norway Mexico Turkey MSE MAE DIR MSE

  19. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  20. November2013Forest Trends Report Series Forest Trade and Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in Myanmar: The Political Economy of Myanmar's Timber Trade #12;#12;Timber Trade Flows and Actors in MyanmarNovember2013Forest Trends Report Series Forest Trade and Finance Timber Trade Flows and Actors The Political Economy of Myanmar's Timber Trade Kevin Woods November 2013 #12;Acknowledgments The author, Kevin

  1. MasterofInternationalTrade(MIT) About the MIT Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saskatchewan, University of

    used to evaluate the effects of free trade on national economics. Students will explore classical, the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade, and the North American Free Trade AgreementMasterofInternationalTrade(MIT) About the MIT Program The Master of International Trade (MIT

  2. Regulation, Allocation, and Leakage in Cap-and-Trade Markets for CO2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bushnell, Jim B; Chen, Yihsu

    2009-01-01

    competitiveness in the eu emissions trading scheme: Policyand-trade systems for emissions trading is the allocation orciency of the resulting emissions trading market. Certainly

  3. South Korea–U.S. free trade agreement will lower export barriers for California products

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Hyunok; Sumner, Daniel A

    2011-01-01

    DA. 2009. The Prospective Free Trade Agreement with Korea:Index.html. USTR. 2011. Free trade agreements. www.ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements. South Korea

  4. Generation co-ordination and energy trading systems in an open market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eichler, R.

    1998-07-01

    The power industry in many parts of the world is currently undergoing dramatic changes: deregulation, privatization, competition and 3rd party access are the keywords. The major trends are summarized at the beginning of the paper to provide the basis for the evolving consequences for the power generation industry. In the restructured environment of the Open Market power generation companies frequently are organizationally separated from transmission, distribution, and supply and now have to sell their product directly to customers. This necessitates the introduction of energy trading support functions for both bilateral trading and power exchange trading. On the other hand, there is a close relationship between energy trading and the technical process of energy production. The paper discusses design principles for software systems supporting maximum economic benefits. First practical application experience is also presented. The energy trading process requires the break up of proprietary databases and proprietary data structures as this process has a major need to communicate with external partners who normally use different systems. This directly leads to 3rd party products for the database, standardized data structures and standardized communication protocols. The Open Market environment calls for new and modified planning functions: in some cases measured value information necessary for updating load forecasts cannot be directly achieved. This leads to the need for an estimator of the actual load situation, a completely new function. Power scheduling has to take care of the generation company's balance but it need not always be forced to 0. Regulating services from the grid companies can be used instead. This gives the scheduling functions additional freedom for determining more economic overall solutions considering both purchase and services and sales of energy.

  5. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  8. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  9. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  10. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  11. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  12. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  13. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  14. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  15. Aspects of Late Helladic sea trade 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bachhuber, Christoph Stephen

    2004-09-30

    ASPECTS OF LATE HELLADIC SEA TRADE A Thesis by CHRISTOPH... ASPECTS OF LATE HELLADIC SEA TRADE A Thesis by CHRISTOPH BACHHUBER Submitted to Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS Approved as to style and content by...

  16. The Export Question: Designing Policy for British Columbia Electricity Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedersen, Tom

    The Export Question: Designing Policy for British Columbia Electricity Trade Dr. George Hoberg..........................................................................................................................................5 2 BC's Electricity Trade Picture: Context and Trends........................................................................6 2.1 How electricity trading works

  17. Market power in international carbon emissions trading: a laboratory test

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlén, Björn.

    The prospect that governments of one or a few large countries, or trading blocs, would engage in international greenhouse gas emissions trading has led several policy analysts to express concerns that trade would be ...

  18. Purdue Climate Change Research Center Emissions Trading Workshop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Purdue Climate Change Research Center Emissions Trading Workshop Introduction and Overview manner. Workshop rather than conference. #12;What is Emissions Trading? (or "Cap and Trade") · Cap & Enforcement · Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) mechanisms for reductions #12;Five Emissions

  19. Market Microstructure Patterns Powering Trading and Surveillance Agents

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cao, Longbing

    Market Microstructure Patterns Powering Trading and Surveillance Agents Longbing Cao (University are then used for powering market trading and surveillance agents for automatically detecting market models. From data analysis perspective, we view it valuable for smart trading in designing legal

  20. EA-208 Williams Energy Marketing and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Trading Company More Documents & Publications EA-184 Morgan Stanley Capital Group Inc. EA-166 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, L.L.C EA-167 PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P...

  1. International Trade in Used Vehicles: The Environmental Consequences of NAFTA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    B.   and  Taylor,  S.   “Is  Free  Trade  Good  for  the and  the  Mexico?U.S.  Free Trade Agreement,” in P.  M.  ed. , The Mexico?U.S.  Free Trade Agreement,  Cambridge, 

  2. Global Trade Policy Development in a Two-Track System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crump, Larry

    2006-01-01

    Australian–United States free trade agreement’ 56 Australian2002; Thailand–Australia Free Trade Agreement of 2004). OfThe Singapore–Australia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) can be

  3. Meeting Summary, Credit Trading Work Group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kevin Bryan

    2000-12-07

    OAK-B135 Credit Trading Work Group Meeting Summary. The purpose of the meeting is to: (1) Provide an opportunity for NWCC Work Group Members, NWCC Members, and invited expert participants to hear an overview of the draft NWCC Credit Trading Report and to critically review and discuss the report's recommendations and principles. (2) Hear presentations from several perspectives of other experts on credit trading which provide: (a) a brief summary of credit trading activities they are involved in, and (b) critical responses to the NWCC draft report. (3) Identify how the report can be improved at the big picture level. Attempt to resolve issues or concerns if necessary. (4) Discuss the recommendations and credit trading principles in detail and attempt to reach consensus on these sections for presentation to the NWCC. (5) Discuss if any of the outreach and communication recommendations in the report should be conducted by the NWCC.

  4. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  5. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  6. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  8. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  9. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  13. Commodity Money in a Convex Trading Post Sequence Economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Starr, Ross M.

    2008-01-01

    that the existence of money poses to the theorist is this:signal its supply. The trading post sequence economy modelin a Walrasian trading post example,” Economics Letters,

  14. EA-223 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Trading Company to export electric energy to Canada. EA-223 CMS Marketing, Services and Trading Company More Documents & Publications EA-232 OGE Energy Resources Inc EA-249...

  15. Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    trade mission focused on connecting U.S. businesses with opportunities in the green infrastructure and energy efficiency industries. This trade mission will promote...

  16. Modelling Agricultural Trade and Policy Impacts in Less Developed...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Modelling Agricultural Trade and Policy Impacts in Less Developed Countries Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Modelling Agricultural Trade and Policy...

  17. Federal Energy Management Trade Show | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Federal Energy Management Trade Show Federal Energy Management Trade Show Addthis 1 of 4 Timothy Unruh, Program Manager for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy...

  18. Distributional effects of trade and tariffs between and within countries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tobal, Martin

    2012-01-01

    126 Model Setup and Free-Tradeand the economy approaches free trade ( increases). As tradeas the economy approaches free trade. Turning back to our

  19. High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production Builders - Building America Top Innovation High Performance Home Cost Performance Trade-Offs: Production Builders -...

  20. Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Gustafson, William I.; Wang, Hailong

    2014-04-29

    Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

  1. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  2. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  3. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  4. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  5. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  6. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  7. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  8. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  9. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  10. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  11. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  12. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  13. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  14. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  16. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  17. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  18. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  19. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  20. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  1. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  2. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  3. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  4. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  5. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  8. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  9. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  10. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  11. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  12. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  13. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  14. Vol. [VOL], No. [ISS]: 111 Irradiance Rigs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Toronto, University of

    Vol. [VOL], No. [ISS]: 1­11 Irradiance Rigs Hong Yuan UMass Amherst, Disney Interactive Studios that conveys their placement in the environment. Irradiance Volumes [Greger et al. 98] were designed specifically for this problem. The spatially varying irradiance in a volume is explicitly computed

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  16. Heat Management Strategy Trade Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nick Soelberg; Steve Priebe; Dirk Gombert; Ted Bauer

    2009-09-01

    This Heat Management Trade Study was performed in 2008-2009 to expand on prior studies in continued efforts to analyze and evaluate options for cost-effectively managing SNF reprocessing wastes. The primary objective was to develop a simplified cost/benefit evaluation for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) reprocessing that combines the characteristics of the waste generated through reprocessing with the impacts of the waste on heating the repository. Under consideration were age of the SNF prior to reprocessing, plutonium and minor actinide (MA) separation from the spent fuel for recycle, fuel value of the recycled Pu and MA, age of the remaining spent fuel waste prior to emplacement in the repository, length of time that active ventilation is employed in the repository, and elemental concentration and heat limits for acceptable glass waste form durability. A secondary objective was to identify and qualitatively analyze remaining issues such as (a) impacts of aging SNF prior to reprocessing on the fuel value of the recovered fissile materials, and (b) impact of reprocessing on the dose risk as developed in the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). Results of this study can be used to evaluate different options for managing decay heat in waste streams from spent nuclear fuel.

  17. Electric trade in the United States 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-08-01

    Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1994, the wholesale trade market totaled 1.9 trillion kilowatthours, about 66% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1994 (ELECTRA), is the fifth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1994.

  18. Equity and Emissions Trading in China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, D.

    China has embarked on an ambitious pathway for establishing a national carbon market in the next five to ten years. In this study, we analyze the distributional aspects of a Chinese emissions-trading scheme from ethical, ...

  19. The temporal efficiency of SO? emissions trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the temporal efficiency of the U.S. Acid Rain Program, which implemented a nationwide market for trading and banking sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission allowances. We first develop ...

  20. Is international emissions trading always beneficial?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Babiker, Mustafa H.M.

    Economic efficiency is a major argument for the inclusion of an international emission permit trading system under the Kyoto Protocol. Using a partial equilibrium framework, energy system models have shown that implementing ...

  1. An empirical analysis of quantitative trading strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aiuchi, Masaharu

    2008-01-01

    Along with the increasing computing power, growing availability of various data streams, introduction of the electronic exchanges, decreasing trading costs and heating-up competition in financial investment industry, ...

  2. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

    2013-01-01

    imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energytrade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied inWithin this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO 2

  3. Trade and Workforce Changeover in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muendler, Marc-Andreas

    2007-01-01

    Rate and Job Flows in Brazil,” Journal of Policy Reform,intensive occupations in Brazil’s traded-goods sector isinput tari? (in z jt ). Brazil’s nominal exchange rate is

  4. Port Royal, Jamaica, and the slave trade 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, David A

    2000-01-01

    for understanding the conduct of the slave trade in Port Royal. Primary documents, which include official records, personal accounts, correspondence, probate inventories, wills and records of deeds and grants, reveal information beyond census and volume...

  5. The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading Tianyu Qi, Niven Trading Tianyu Qi* , Niven Winchester , Valerie J. Karplus and Xiliang Zhang Abstract Emissions trading of the European Union's Emissions Trading System with a new system in Australia in 2015, this paper simulates

  6. 7Emissions Trading Workshop Summary Report Discussion Synthesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    7Emissions Trading Workshop Summary Report Discussion Synthesis Background On April 30, 2010, more than 70 people gathered for an all-day workshop on emissions trading at Purdue University's Discovery of different emission trading proposals. The need for such discussion is great. Pollution trading is a high

  7. Bargaining-based Energy Trading Market for Interconnected Microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Jianwei

    Bargaining-based Energy Trading Market for Interconnected Microgrids Hao Wang, Jianwei Huang trading among mul- tiple connected microgrids, and analyzes the impacts of such trading on the microgrids' costs. In our model, microgrids with excessive power generations can trade with other microgrids

  8. Agricultural Trade and the U.S. Economy 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCorkle, Dean; Taylor, Timothy G.; Fairchild, Gary F.; Harris, Harold M.; Rosson, C. Parr

    1999-06-23

    trade disputes, cause interna- tional trade to be perceived as us versus them, where one country gains only if another country loses. In fact, international trade is not funda- mentally different from the inter-regional trade among states in the U...

  9. STOLPER-SAMUELSON REVISITED: TRADE AND DISTRIBUTION WITH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlini, David

    of trade. In the original version of this theorem, free trade raises the real price of a country's abundantSTOLPER-SAMUELSON REVISITED: TRADE AND DISTRIBUTION WITH OLIGOPOLISTIC PROFITS Robert A. Blecker the distributional impact of international trade when goods markets are oligopolistic and firms partially pass

  10. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  11. Electric trade in the United States, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-12-01

    Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1996, the wholesale trade market totaled 2.3 trillion kilowatthours, over 73% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1996 (ELECTRA), is the sixth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1996. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. 1 fig., 43 tabs.

  12. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  13. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  14. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  15. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  16. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  17. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  18. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  19. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  20. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  1. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  2. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  3. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  4. Free Trade Agreements in the World Trade Organization: The Experience of East Asia and the Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turinov, Anna

    2008-01-01

    at 4. 51. Id. at 4-5. FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS IN THE WTO miesFREE TRADE AGREEMENTS IN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION: THEAsia's Arrival into Free Trade 3.2. Systemic

  5. Publish or Patent: Bibliometric evidence for empirical trade-offs in national funding strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shelton, Robert D

    2011-01-01

    Multivariate linear regression models suggest a trade-off in allocations of national R&D investments. Government funding, and spending in the higher education sector, seem to encourage publications, whereas other components such as industrial funding, and spending in the business sector, encourage patenting. Our results help explain why the US trails the EU in publications, because of its focus on industrial funding - some 70% of its total R&D investment. Conversely, it also helps explain why the EU trails the US in patenting. Government funding is indicated as a negative incentive to high-quality patenting. The models here can also be used to predict an output indicator for a country, once the appropriate input indicator is known. This usually is done within a dataset for a single year, but the process can be extended to predict outputs a few years into the future, if reasonable forecasts can be made of the input indicators. We provide new forecasts about the further relationships of the US, the EU-2...

  6. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  7. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  8. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  9. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  10. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  11. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  12. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  13. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  14. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  15. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  16. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  17. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  18. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  19. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  20. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  1. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  2. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  3. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  4. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  5. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  6. Carbon Trading Protocols for Geologic Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoversten, Shanna

    2008-08-07

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could become an instrumental part of a future carbon trading system in the US. If the US starts operating an emissions trading scheme (ETS) similar to that of the European Union's then limits on CO{sub 2} emissions will be conservative in the beginning stages. The government will most likely start by distributing most credits for free; these free credits are called allowances. The US may follow the model of the EU ETS, which during the first five-year phase distributed 95% of the credits for free, bringing that level down to 90% for the second five-year phase. As the number of free allowances declines, companies will be forced to purchase an increasing number of credits at government auction, or else obtain them from companies selling surplus credits. In addition to reducing the number of credits allocated for free, with each subsequent trading period the number of overall credits released into the market will decline in an effort to gradually reduce overall emissions. Companies may face financial difficulty as the value of credits continues to rise due to the reduction of the number of credits available in the market each trading period. Governments operating emissions trading systems face the challenge of achieving CO{sub 2} emissions targets without placing such a financial burden on their companies that the country's economy is markedly affected.

  7. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  8. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  9. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  10. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  11. Energy futures: Trading opportunities for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This volume contains an edited collection of views from practitioners in the rapidly growing area of energy futures and options trading, a major element of risk management. Four chapters are devoted to Trading Theories and Strategies. This section is aimed at the specialist in energy, rather than finance. The complexities of options trading are described in another chapter. The remaining sections of this book present a variety of topics in this field including Natural Gas Trading and Futures, Energy Futures and Options Trading, and Accounting, Taxation and Internal Control. The book is a good introduction and reference to the mechanics and institutions of energy futures contracts and trading.

  12. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  13. EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) to export electric energy to Canada EA-319-A Fortis Energy Marketing & Trading GP (BNP Paribas Energy Trading GP) More Documents & Publications...

  14. Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Limpaitoon, Tanachai

    2012-01-01

    Market power in emissions trading: strategically manipu-of auctions for emissions trading. Retrieved from Climatepricing under carbon emissions trading: A dominant firm with

  15. Distributing Pollution Rights in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Are Outcomes Independent of Allocation?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowlie, Meredith; Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    2008-01-01

    policy- the RECLAIM emission trading policy." Environ.Incentives Market: a new emissions trading program for Lospolitical feasibility of emissions trading programs. See,

  16. Emissions Trading and Air Toxics Emissions: RECLAIM and Toxics Regulation in the South Coast Air Basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Nancy J.

    1993-01-01

    Emissions Trading and Air Toxics Emissions: RECLAIM anda mar- ket-based emissions trading program called theimpacts cre- ated by emissions trading programs that affect

  17. Strategic Behavior, Private Information, and Decentralization in the European Union Emissions Trading System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Malueg, David A.; Yates, Andrew J.

    2009-01-01

    in the European Union emissions trading scheme. Rev EnvironDecentralization in the EU emissions trading scheme andthe European Union Emissions Trading System David A. Malueg

  18. Going Mobile: Emissions Trading Gets a Boost from Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credits

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goldschein, Perry S.

    1995-01-01

    Going Mobile: Emissions Trading Gets a Boost From Mobilehave tested various emissions trading policies to supplementAn Analysis of EPA's Emissions Trading Program, 6 YALE J. ON

  19. Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Limpaitoon, Tanachai

    2012-01-01

    The case of wholesale power trading in Germany Power andY. (2011). Market power in emissions trading: strategicallyto model market power in permit trading. The conjectural

  20. State Power and Trade-Environment Negotiations: Lessons from the EU, NAFTA and GATT/WTO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steinberg, Richard

    1995-01-01

    several medium-sized powers, regional trading blocs are morestructure of power and interests in the world trading systemworld trading system, larger European powers have decided to

  1. The North American Free Trade Agreement: A Legal Analysis of Effects and Opportunities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steinberg, Richard

    1994-01-01

    Proposed North American Free Trade Agreement,' August 12,Proposed North American Free Trade Agreement," August 12,THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: A LEGAL ANALYSIS OF

  2. International Trade of Wood Pellets (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-05-01

    The production of wood pellets has increased dramatically in recent years due in large part to aggressive emissions policy in the European Union; the main markets that currently supply the European market are North America and Russia. However, current market circumstances and trade dynamics could change depending on the development of emerging markets, foreign exchange rates, and the evolution of carbon policies. This fact sheet outlines the existing and potential participants in the wood pellets market, along with historical data on production, trade, and prices.

  3. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  4. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  5. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  6. Trade in waste among developed countries : evidence and origins

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bernard, Andrew B.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the determinants of the international trade in waste between developed countries. Data from the 1980s suggest that while the trade in waste between developed and less developed countries has ...

  7. International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

    2012-01-01

    of emissions trade on IEA participation Ex ante heterogenousachieving ef?cient abatement. An IEA that combines trade inhelp in creating a successful IEA. It is reasonable to use

  8. International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

    2012-01-01

    trade policy, and environmental policy in an attempt to help2 Trade policy and environmental policy 3 The ef?ciency ofInstitutute for Environmental Policy Solultions. S TAVINS ,

  9. Forest Trends Report Series Forest Trade and Finance April 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest Trends Report Series Forest Trade and Finance April 2014 Forest Products Trade between China. Whiletheglobaleconomicdownturnaffectedconsumptioninmanycountries,China'stradewithAfricaremained mostly unaffected. In particular, commodities, such as oil and gas

  10. Three empirical essays on trade and development in India

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Topalova, Petia

    2005-01-01

    This thesis is a collection of three empirical essays on economic development and trade in India. Chapter 1 uses the sharp trade liberalization in India in the early 1990s, spurred to a large extent by external factors, ...

  11. The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hochman, Gal; Sexton, Steven; Zilberman, David D.

    2010-01-01

    prices. The reason: demand for biofuel increases, and ?rst-The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment GalThe Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment ? Gal

  12. Electric trade in the United States 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-09-01

    This publication, Electric Trade in the US 1992 (ELECTRA), is the fourth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Electric Data Systems Branch, Survey Management Division, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1992. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. Information on the physical transmission system are being included for the first time in this publication. Transmission data covering investor-owned electric utilities were shifted from the Financial Statistics of Selected Investor-Owned Electric Utilities to the ELECTRA publication. Some of the prominent features of this year`s report include information and data not published before on transmission lines for publicly owned utilities and transmission lines added during 1992 by investor-owned electric utilities.

  13. Equity and Equity Index Derivatives Trading Strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ciocan-Fontanine, Ionut

    Indexes 20 Theoretical (Fair) Value 21 Basis 22 Cost of Carry = Basis Equity Index Futures Strategies 23e u r e x Equity and Equity Index Derivatives Trading Strategies e u r e x #12;Please Note The definitions of "basis" and "cost of carry" have been changed in this version of the brochure. In previous

  14. Adaptive systems for foreign exchange trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    - cal analysis. Technical analysis attempts to predict markets by identifying patterns in the price;FinancialMarkets Jones CM (2001 & 2002). Much of it has concen- trated on high frequency (intraday) trading exchange markets. Professor Michael Dempster and Graham Bates, both of the Centre for Financial Research

  15. Optimal Trading Strategy Supply/Demand Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gabrieli, John

    prices through the changes in their supply/demand.2 Thus, to study how market participants trade can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices: November 15, 2004. This Draft: April 8, 2006 Abstract The supply/demand of a security in the market

  16. Allowance trading: Market operations and regulatory response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bailey, K.A.; South, D.W.; McDermott, K.A.

    1992-12-31

    The use of the SO{sub 2} allowance system as defined by Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments offers utilities greater compliance flexibility than EPA technology standards, State Implementation Plan (SEP) performance standards, or EPA bubble/offset strategies. Traditional methods at best offered the utility the ability to trade emissions between different units at a particular plant. The SO{sub 2} emissions trading system advocated under Title IV will allow a utility to trade emissions across its utility system, and/or trade emissions between utilities to take advantage of interfirm control cost differences. The use of transferable emission allowances offers utilities greater flexibility in the choice of how to control emissions: the choices include fuel switching, flue gas scrubbing, environmental dispatch, repowering, and even the choice not to control emissions [as long as the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements are met]. The added flexibility allows utilities to choose the least cost manner of compliance with Title IV requirements. It is hoped (intended) that pollution control cost-minimization by individual utilities will in turn reduce the cost of controlling SO{sub 2} for the electric utility industry in aggregate. In addition, through the use of NO{sub x} emission averaging, the utility would average NO{sub x} emissions from different point sources in order to comply with the prescribed emission standard.

  17. Allowance trading: Market operations and regulatory response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bailey, K.A.; South, D.W.; McDermott, K.A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of the SO[sub 2] allowance system as defined by Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments offers utilities greater compliance flexibility than EPA technology standards, State Implementation Plan (SEP) performance standards, or EPA bubble/offset strategies. Traditional methods at best offered the utility the ability to trade emissions between different units at a particular plant. The SO[sub 2] emissions trading system advocated under Title IV will allow a utility to trade emissions across its utility system, and/or trade emissions between utilities to take advantage of interfirm control cost differences. The use of transferable emission allowances offers utilities greater flexibility in the choice of how to control emissions: the choices include fuel switching, flue gas scrubbing, environmental dispatch, repowering, and even the choice not to control emissions [as long as the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements are met]. The added flexibility allows utilities to choose the least cost manner of compliance with Title IV requirements. It is hoped (intended) that pollution control cost-minimization by individual utilities will in turn reduce the cost of controlling SO[sub 2] for the electric utility industry in aggregate. In addition, through the use of NO[sub x] emission averaging, the utility would average NO[sub x] emissions from different point sources in order to comply with the prescribed emission standard.

  18. Designing Adaptive Trading Agents DAVID PARDOE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stone, Peter

    should make use of this experience. Within the context of a specific market scenario, the answer depends to the first three questions depend on the particular market scenario being considered, and our work spansDesigning Adaptive Trading Agents DAVID PARDOE Yahoo! Labs and PETER STONE The University of Texas

  19. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  20. The 2001 Trading Agent Competition Michael P. Wellman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wellman, Michael P.

    to cooperate, by addressing their design energy to a common problem. The Trading Agent Competition (TACThe 2001 Trading Agent Competition Michael P. Wellman£ University of Michigan wellman@umich.edu Amy@research.att.com Peter R. Wurman North Carolina State University wurman@csc.ncsu.edu Abstract The 2001 Trading Agent

  1. Emissions Trading: What Makes It Work? Julien Chevallier1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Emissions Trading: What Makes It Work? Julien Chevallier1 04 July 2009 Abstract: At the stage permits markets. Keywords: climate change policy; emissions trading; banking borrowing; initial allocation-4Jul2009 #12;2 Review of current climate policies The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS

  2. Research Summary The EU Emissions Trading System: Opportunities for Forests?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Research Summary The EU Emissions Trading System: Opportunities for Forests? European forestry has sequestration provided by European forests has not been recognised by markets. The EU Emissions Trading System as part of a wider review covering emerging carbon markets. Background The EU Emissions Trading Scheme

  3. Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Leigh Raymond

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Programs?* Leigh Raymond be inferred. #12;Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Programs? Abstract Early emissions trading programs have obtained a very high rate of compliance, in part by using continuous

  4. Trading Functionality for Power within Applications Melanie Kambadur

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trading Functionality for Power within Applications Melanie Kambadur Columbia University melanie down a program, so they must err on the side of caution when trading performance for power. Compounding application to trade performance for power, it may not be for another, preventing the sys- tem from taking

  5. Trading Agents Competing: Performance, Progress, and Market Effectiveness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wellman, Michael P.

    programmed trading techniques in a challenging market scenario in competition with other design groups. AfterTrading Agents Competing: Performance, Progress, and Market Effectiveness£ Michael P. Wellman, Shih Since the year 2000, the annual trading agent competition has provided a forum for designers to evaluate

  6. Trend Following Algorithms for Technical Trading in Stock Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Si, Yain Whar "Lawrence"

    to the design of technical trading systems. It implies that the fluctuation of market trend should be monitoredTrend Following Algorithms for Technical Trading in Stock Market Simon Fong, Jackie Tai, Yain Whar-- Trend following (TF) is a rule-based trading mechanism that taps on the movements of long-term market

  7. International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG? Yichen Du and Sergey Paltsev Report No. 271;1 International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG? Yichen Du* and Sergey Paltsev* Abstract The introduction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an option for international trade has created a market for natural gas where

  8. Trade Diversion from Tomato Suspension Agreements Kathy Baylis*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    the effect of the VPR on trade in fresh tomatoes among the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTATrade Diversion from Tomato Suspension Agreements Kathy Baylis* Assistant Professor, Agriculture-3310 Abstract: Trade barriers can cause output to be diverted to other countries and into other products. We

  9. Pro-Trade Democrats Go AWOL (NYT) 639 words

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopez-Carr, David

    Al Gore went on prime-time television to debate Ross Perot, a foe of free trade, in a clash Mr. Gore is widely believed to have won. The debate helped propel supporters of the North American Free Trade isn't going away whether Cafta gets approved or not. Free-trade Democrats should be using

  10. ORIGINAL PAPER Environmental aspects in free trade agreements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ORIGINAL PAPER Environmental aspects in free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region Astrid been made. Since the 1990s, environmental issues have been addressed by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and in recent times by trans-regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs

  11. An Interactive Computer Model of Two-Country Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamlen, Kevin W.

    country when free trade is made available. One of the most important learning lessons for the students91 An Interactive Computer Model of Two-Country Trade Bill Hamlen and Kevin Hamlen Abstract We introduce an interactive computer model of two-country trade that allows students to investigate

  12. Establishment Heterogeneity, Exporter Dynamics, and the Effects of Trade Liberalization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alexandrova, Ivana

    to free trade equivalent to 1.03 percent of steady state consumption. Con- sidering the transitionEstablishment Heterogeneity, Exporter Dynamics, and the Effects of Trade Liberalization George the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find sizeable gains to moving

  13. Trading Agent Competition Market Design Game Strategic Trader Game Conclusion and Future Work A Platform for Trading Agent Competition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Dongmo

    Trading Agent Competition Market Design Game Strategic Trader Game Conclusion and Future Work of Western Sydney Australia #12;Trading Agent Competition Market Design Game Strategic Trader Game Conclusion and Future Work Outline 1 Trading Agent Competition 2 Market Design Game 3 Strategic Trader Game 4 Conclusion

  14. Forest Trends Report Series Forest Trade and Finance February 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    environments; in addition, some countries have seen growing local resistance against Chinese labor and business become more risky. The Chinese government has accordingly attempted to improve risk forecasting to question. The Chinese government has accordingly attempted to improve risk forecasting and mitigation

  15. Taxes and Trading versus Intensity Standards: Second-Best Environmental Policies with Incomplete Regulation (Leakage) or Market Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holland, Stephen P.

    2009-01-01

    2007) compares taxes and emissions trading in concentratedtaxes (equivalently emissions trading) may not be the best

  16. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  17. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  18. Assessment of Allowance Mechanismin China's Carbon Trading Pilots

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Ling; Shen, Bo; Qi, Shaozhou; Price, Lynn

    2015-08-01

    The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in design of a carbon trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each company covered under the scheme. By examining China's allowance mechanism from two aspects including allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China's carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading System and California Cap-and-Trade Program, and through the comparison identify issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends course of actions to strengthen China's existing pilots and build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China.

  19. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  20. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  1. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  2. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  3. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  4. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  6. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  7. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  8. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  9. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  10. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  11. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  12. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  13. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  14. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  16. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  17. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  18. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  19. Emissions trading - time to get serious

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vitelli, A.

    2007-11-15

    The Kyoto Protocol's five year compliance period begins in 2008. Industrialized nations around the world have pledged to cut carbon emissions, but the job seems to get harder, not easier, as 2008 approaches. Can market mechanisms make the crucial difference? The article discloses recent initiatives and developments worldwide. It concludes that it is clear that the market is maintaining its central role in fighting climate change and that bringing emissions trading to developing countries and to the US can only reinforce that role.

  20. Effluent Trading: A Policy Review for Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fossett, Mark A.; Kaiser, Ronald; Matlock, Marty D.; Vedlitz, Arnold; Woodward, Richard T.

    1999-11-05

    Quality; Malcolm Green, Greenville Utilities Commission; Elise Bacon, Hagler Bailly; Norman Senjem, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency; Todd Chenoweth, Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC); and Clyde Bohmfalk, Texas Natural Resource..., they have two major weaknesses that are driving the consideration of market- based trading. First, the use of a technology- based approach is known to be a relatively expensive way of achieving pollution reduction goals. Second, the emphasis of regulation...

  1. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  2. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  3. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  4. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    for forecasting the Spanish electricity market prices. On the other hand, ARIMA, dynamic regression and transfer been used to forecast the Spanish market prices [7], [9], Californian market prices [9], Leipzig power have been used for forecasting the Spanish and Californian market prices [11] and the PJM market prices

  5. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  6. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed, defining the spatial­temporal extent of episodes of dangerous air quality, forecasting urban and areaAtmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1373­1382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast

  7. A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting Song Cai to provide predictive distributions of daily maximum surface level ozone concentrations. Five forecast models forecasts for extreme events, namely poor air quality events defined as having ozone concentration 82 ppb

  8. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  9. Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data Based on comparisons with infrared (GOES) and microwave (AMSE-R) satellite data, our coastal ocean forecast model set circulation model and satellite data helps to improve forecasting of ocean conditions (esp. currents and SST

  10. Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud May 11, 2014 Abstract This paper presents a survey of electricity price forecasting for the Nordic region, and performs that time series models more appropriate for forecasting electricity prices, compared to machine learning

  11. Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedl, Herwig

    Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Vika Koban, Milos Pantos of electricity price under normal conditions with the spike time series caused by extreme conditions in order to obtain a better forecast of the spot price. Short term electricity price forecasting has become

  12. Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts Ronald H. Brown1 that allows long-term natural gas demand signals to be used effect- ively to generate high quality short-term natural gas demand forecasting models. Short data sets in natural gas forecasting inadequately represent

  13. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  14. Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howard, Tim

    to space weather forecasting T. A. Howard1 and S. J. Tappin2 Received 15 October 2009; revised 27 April with the Earth. Hence the model can be used for space weather forecasting. We present a preliminary evaluation to fully validate it for integration with existing tools for space weather forecasting. Citation: Howard, T

  15. Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    -scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 on the ingredients for particular severe weather events, a focus is provided for the forecasting process of forecasters is discussed also, as a necessary component in a balanced approach to weather forecasting

  16. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J

    2014-12-02

    is to generate field-wide production forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). This study considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating...

  17. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we studyOptimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation

  18. Forecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    finance. GAs are algorithms that emulate evolution and natural selection to solve a problem. A populationForecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery Alma Lilia Garcia to financial problems. In particular, the use of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), for financial purposes, has

  19. Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles with Statistic Simulations Guangbin Li (gl2423) #12 of the most heated-discussed issues. Energy shortage and environment pollution are the main bottleneck the tradeoff between energy supply and environment pollution. As the international oil price was continuously

  20. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

  1. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  2. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  3. A Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Wei

    . Frequent pattern-based data representations have been used in various studies for abstracting climaticA Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events Dawei Wang, Wei@cs.umb.edu Abstract--Extreme weather events, like extreme rainfalls, are severe weather hazards and also the triggers

  4. ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology Benjamin Melamed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chapter 73 ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology Benjamin Melamed Abstract The class of ARM (Autoregressive Modular) processes is a class of stochastic processes, defined by a non- linear autoregressive scheme with modulo-1 reduction and additional transformations. ARM processes

  5. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /Individuals Providing Comments California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition/ Mike Eaves League of Women VotersCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California

  6. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  7. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  8. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  9. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  10. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  11. 1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus- tomers, are operating within Kingdom out of a total budget of approximately £140 million for winter road maintenance. It is difficult rely on a simple set of statistics provided by the weather service providers. The current guidance

  12. Forecasting Hourly Electricity Load Profile Using Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koprinska, Irena

    Forecasting Hourly Electricity Load Profile Using Neural Networks Mashud Rana and Irena Koprinska--We present INN, a new approach for predicting the hourly electricity load profile for the next day from a time series of previous electricity loads. It uses an iterative methodology to make the predictions

  13. Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imperial College, London

    Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

  14. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-26

    Facilities such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), which contain the potential for hazardous atmospheric releases, rely on the predictive capabilities of dispersion models to assess possible emergency response actions. The operational design in relation to domain size and forecast time is presented, along with verification of model results over extended time periods with archived surface observations.

  15. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  16. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in AlbanyFORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL NREL, 1617 Cole Blvd. Golden, CO 80841 stephen_wilcox@nrel.gov Antoine Zelenka Meteosuisse

  17. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  18. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  19. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  20. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  1. Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    horizons of up to eight quarters ahead since this is the rele- vant time horizon for central banks when setting interest rates. Table 6 shows the RMSFE, the bias and the hit rate of forecasts based on the VECX*(2,2) model for the longest estimation window...

  2. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  3. On-Demand Based Wireless Resources Trading for Green Communications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Wenchi; Zhang, Hailin; Wang, Qiang

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of Green Communications is to reduce the energy consumption of the communication system as much as possible without compromising the quality of service (QoS) for users. An effective approach for Green Wireless Communications is On-Demand strategy, which scales power consumption with the volume and location of user demand. Applying the On-Demand Communications model, we propose a novel scheme -- Wireless Resource Trading, which characterizes the trading relationship among different wireless resources for a given number of performance metrics. According to wireless resource trading relationship, different wireless resources can be consumed for the same set of performance metrics. Therefore, to minimize the energy consumption for given performance metrics, we can trade the other type of wireless resources for the energy resource under the demanded performance metrics. Based on the wireless resource trading relationship, we derive the optimal energy-bandwidth and energy-time wireless resource trading ...

  4. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  5. Agriculture, Free Trade, and Global Development: Some Personal Observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Head, John W.

    2005-01-01

    Agriculture, Free Trade, and Global Development: Some Personal Observations John W. Head* I am very pleased to have been invited to offer some luncheon remarks for the Law School's Symposium on Agriculture, Free Trade, and Global Development. My..., or at least a light break from the weighty papers being presented at the symposium, if I were to offer some of my own personal observations about the three subject areas that combine to give this symposium its title: agriculture, free trade, and global...

  6. Carbon Trade Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar Energy LLCLtd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Carbon Trade Ltd Place:

  7. Solar Trade Corporation STC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EIS ReportEurope GmbH JumpSloughInfra Inc JumpSentryTorx New SolarTrade

  8. World Trade Organization | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (UtilityMichigan) Jump to: navigation, searchWorld Fuel CellResourcesTrade

  9. Category:Trade Groups | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoopButte County,Camilla,Thermal Gradient Holes Jump to: navigation, searchTrade Groups

  10. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Liberalizing Trade in Environmenta...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Liberalizing Trade in Environmental Goods Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of...

  11. The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council and Los...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    sign labor agreements September 21, 2012 Unions, LANL sign labor agreements The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council and Los Alamos National Security LLC, have...

  12. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Biofuel production technologies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , prospects and implications for trade and development New York and Geneva, 2008 #12;ii Notes The designations ...................................... 17 4.2 Net energy balances

  13. Effect of market structure on international coal trade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kolstad, C.D.; Abbey, D.S.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the determinants of international steam-coal trade. Most work in projecting coal trade has been either qualitative (a consensus of experts) or, if quantitative, has been based on competitive spatial-equilibrium models. Unfortunately, the competitive model of trade does not appear to account for observed and anticipated trade flows. This is consistent with findings in the commodity trade literature that, although markets may behave in a rational economic fashion, market concentration among producers, traders, and consumers leads to trade patterns significantly different than those associated with competitive markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the significance and effect on patterns of steam-coal trade of several deviations from the simple competitive model. In addition to perfect competition, we examine monopoly (South Africa) and duopoly (South Africa, Australia) with a competitive fringe (US, Canada, Poland, China and Columbia). Using a simple equilibrium model of coal trade, we examine these market structures and evaluate the extent to which they can explain existing and anticipated trade patterns.

  14. The potential for effluent trading in the energy industries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veil, J. A.; Environmental Assessment

    1998-01-01

    In January 1996, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a policy statement endorsing wastewater effluent trading in watersheds, hoping to promote additional interest in the subject. The policy describes five types of effluent trades: point source/point source, point source/nonpoint source, pretreatment, intraplant and nonpoint source/nonpoint source. This paper evaluates the feasibility of implementing these types of effluent trading for facilities in the oil and gas, electric power and coal industries. This paper finds that the potential for effluent trading in these industries is limited because trades would generally need to involve toxic pollutants, which can only be traded under a narrow range of circumstances. However, good potential exists for other types of water-related trades that do not directly involve effluents (e.g. wetlands mitigation banking and voluntary environmental projects). The potential for effluent trading in the energy industries and in other sectors would be enhanced if Congress amended the Clean Water Act (CWA) to formally authorize such trading.

  15. Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Residential Workforce Business Partners Peer Exchange Call Series: Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs, Call Slides and...

  16. Utility Energy Efficiency Schemes: Savings Obligations and Trading...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Utility Energy Efficiency Schemes: Savings Obligations and Trading **Subscription Required** Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Utility Energy Efficiency...

  17. Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jackson, Matthew O

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances so that countries are less vulnerable to attack and also reduces countries' incentives to attack an ally. We present historical data on wars and trade, noting that the dramatic drop in interstate wars since 1950, and accompanying densification and stabilization of alliances, are consistent with the model but not other prominent theories.

  18. European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading: A System in Transition*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading: A System in Transition* John M. Reilly and Sergey, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate

  19. International Trade in Used Vehicles: The Environmental Consequences of NAFTA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    trade  leads  average  vehicle  emissions  to  decrease  in country.  How average  vehicle emissions change in both vehicles  and  vehicle  emissions.   Our  dataset  allows 

  20. The feasibility of effluent trading in the energy industries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veil, J.A.

    1997-05-01

    In January 1996, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a policy statement endorsing effluent trading in watersheds, hoping to spur additional interest in the subject. The policy describes five types of effluent trades - point source/point source, point source/nonpoint source, pretreatment, intraplant, and nonpoint source/nonpoint source. This report evaluates the feasibility of effluent trading for facilities in the oil and gas industry (exploration and production, refining, and distribution and marketing segments), electric power industry, and the coal industry (mines and preparation plants). Nonpoint source/nonpoint source trades are not considered since the energy industry facilities evaluated here are all point sources. EPA has administered emission trading programs in its air quality program for many years. Programs for offsets, bubbles, banking, and netting are supported by federal regulations, and the 1990 Clean Air Act (CAA) amendments provide a statutory basis for trading programs to control ozone and acid rain. Different programs have had varying degrees of success, but few have come close to meeting their expectations. Few trading programs have been established under the Clean Water Act (CWA). One intraplant trading program was established by EPA in its effluent limitation guidelines (ELGs) for the iron and steel industry. The other existing effluent trading programs were established by state or local governments and have had minimal success.

  1. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    global solar radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol. 81, no. 6,solar energy, to achieve economically viability and competitiveness [12, 13, 14]. 2.1 Irradiance Data

  2. Cross Border Trading and Borrowing in the EU ETS A. Denny Ellerman* and Raphael Trotignon**

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multi- national trading system, the European Union's CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) provides** This paper exploits a little used data resource within the central registry of the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to analyze cross border trading and inter-year borrowing during the first trading

  3. Trading permanent and temporary carbon emissions credits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marland, Gregg; Marland, Eric

    2009-08-01

    In this issue of Climatic Change, Van Kooten (2009) addresses an issue that has bedeviled negotiators since the drafting stage of the Kyoto Protocol. If we accept that increasing withdrawals of carbon dioxide from the atmpshere has the same net impact on the climate system as reducing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, how do we design a system that allows trading of one for the other? As van Kooten expresses the challenge: 'The problem is that emissions reduction and carbon sequestration, while opposite sides of the same coin in some sense, are not directly comparable, thereby inhibiting their trade in carbon markets.' He explains: 'The difficulty centers on the length of time that mitigation strategies without CO{sub 2} from entering the atmosphere - the duration problem.' While reducing emissions of CO{sub 2} represents an essentially permanent benefit for the atmosphere, capturing CO{sub 2} that has been produced (whether capture is from the atmosphere or directly from, for example, the exhaust from power plants) there is the challenge of storing the carbon adn the risk that it will yet escape to the atmosphere. Permanent benefit to the atmosphere is often not assured for carbon sequestration activities. This is especially true if the carbon is taken up and stored in the biosphere - e.g. in forest trees or agricultural soils.

  4. Nuclear thermal propulsion engine cost trade studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paschall, R.K. (Rocketdyne Division, Rockwell International Corporation, Mail Stop IB57, 6633 Canoga Avenue, P.O. Box 7922, Canoga Park, California 91309-7922 (United States))

    1993-01-10

    The NASA transportation strategy for the Mars Exploration architecture includes the use of nuclear thermal propulsion as the primary propulsion system for Mars transits. It is anticipated that the outgrowth of the NERVA/ROVER programs will be a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system capable of providing the propulsion for missions to Mars. The specific impulse (Isp) for such a system is expected to be in the 870 s range. Trade studies were conducted to investigate whether or not it may be cost effective to invest in a higher performance (Isp[gt]870 s) engine for nuclear thermal propulsion for missions to Mars. The basic cost trades revolved around the amount of mass that must be transported to low-earth orbit prior to each Mars flight and the cost to launch that mass. The mass required depended on the assumptions made for Mars missions scenarios including piloted/cargo flights, number of Mars missions, and transit time to Mars. Cost parameters included launch cost, program schedule for development and operations, and net discount rate. The results were very dependent on the assumptions that were made. Under some assumptions, higher performance engines showed cost savings in the billions of dollars; under other assumptions, the additional cost to develop higher performance engines was not justified.

  5. Multi-Megawatt Power System Trade Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Longhurst, Glen Reed; Schnitzler, Bruce Gordon; Parks, Benjamin Travis

    2001-11-01

    As part of a larger task, the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) was tasked to perform a trade study comparing liquid-metal cooled reactors having Rankine power conversion systems with gas-cooled reactors having Brayton power conversion systems. This report summarizes the approach, the methodology, and the results of that trade study. Findings suggest that either approach has the possibility to approach the target specific mass of 3-5 kg/kWe for the power system, though it appears either will require improvements to achieve that. Higher reactor temperatures have the most potential for reducing the specific mass of gas-cooled reactors but do not necessarily have a similar effect for liquid-cooled Rankine systems. Fuels development will be the key to higher reactor operating temperatures. Higher temperature turbines will be important for Brayton systems. Both replacing lithium coolant in the primary circuit with gallium and replacing potassium with sodium in the power loop for liquid systems increase system specific mass. Changing the feed pump turbine to an electric motor in Rankine systems has little effect. Key technologies in reducing specific mass are high reactor and radiator operating temperatures, low radiator areal density, and low turbine/generator system masses. Turbine/generator mass tends to dominate overall power system mass for Rankine systems. Radiator mass was dominant for Brayton systems.

  6. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  7. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  8. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  9. What Do Emissions Markets Deliver and to Whom? Evidence from Southern California’s NOx Trading Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowlie, Meredith; Holland, Stephen P.; Mansur, Erin T

    2009-01-01

    Justice Critique of Emissions Trading. ” Ecology Lawgions: The case of the emission trading programme RECLAIM inTietenberg, Tom H. 2006. Emissions Trading Principles and

  10. Not All Carbon Credits are Created Equal: The Constitutional and the Cost of Regional Cap-and-Trade Market Linkage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howland, Juliet

    2009-01-01

    of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Bank- ing, and Borrowing,based mechanisms, including emissions trading, provide anEffectiveness of Linked Emissions Trading Schemes, MARGAREE

  11. Algorithms for bispectra: forecasting, optimal analysis, and simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kendrick M. Smith; Matias Zaldarriaga

    2011-11-08

    We propose a factorizability ansatz for angular bispectra which permits fast algorithms for forecasting, analysis, and simulation, yet is general enough to encompass many interesting CMB bispectra. We describe a suite of general algorithms which apply to any bispectrum which can be represented in factorizable form. First, we present algorithms for Fisher matrix forecasts and the related problem of optimizing the factorizable representation, giving a Fisher forecast for Planck as an example. We show that the CMB can give independent constraints on the amplitude of primordial bispectra of both local and equilateral shape as well as those created by secondary anisotropies. We also show that the ISW-lensing bispectrum should be detected by Planck and could bias estimates of the local type of non-Gaussianity if not properly accounted for. Second, we implement a bispectrum estimator which is fully optimal in the presence of sky cuts and inhomogeneous noise, extends the generality of fast estimators which have been limited to a few specific forms of the bispectrum, and improves the running time of existing implementations by several orders of magnitude. Third, we give an algorithm for simulating random, weakly non-Gaussian maps with prescribed power spectrum and factorizable bispectrum.

  12. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  13. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  14. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  15. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  16. Global Forest Products Trade by Ed Pepke, EFI

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    change policies: escalation of wood energy production, consumption and trade 3. Globalization of forest Lacey Act Amendment f. EU renewable (wood) energy policies Forests, Markets, Policy & PracticeGlobal Forest Products Trade by Ed Pepke, EFI Forests, Markets, Policy & Practice Shanghai, China

  17. Limited Sectoral Trading between the EU ETS and China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Limited Sectoral Trading between the EU ETS and China Claire Gavard, Niven Winchester and Sergey established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy://globalchange.mit.edu/ Printed on recycled paper #12;1 Limited Sectoral Trading between the EU ETS and China Claire Gavard

  18. Storage Exchange: A Global Trading Platform for Storage Services

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Melbourne, University of

    Storage Exchange: A Global Trading Platform for Storage Services Martin Placek and Rajkumar Buyya}@csse.unimelb.edu.au Abstract. The Storage Exchange (SX) is a new platform allowing stor- age to be treated as a tradeable resource. Organisations with varying storage requirements can use the SX platform to trade and exchange

  19. Storage Exchange: A Global Trading Platform for Storage Services

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Melbourne, University of

    Storage Exchange: A Global Trading Platform for Storage Services Martin Placek and Rajkumar Buyya,raj}@csse.unimelb.edu.au Abstract. The Storage Exchange (SX) is a new platform allowing stor- age to be treated as a tradeable resource. Organisations with varying storage requirements can use the SX platform to trade and exchange

  20. Green Industrial Policy: Trade and Theory Megan Stevenson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry S.

    Green Industrial Policy: Trade and Theory Larry Karp Megan Stevenson January 27, 2012 Abstract of the green industrial policies, broadly understood, for five countries. We then consider the relation between green industrial policies and trade disputes, emphasizing the Brazil-US dispute involving ethanol