Sample records for trade forecast vol

  1. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  2. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  3. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  4. 1872 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 11, NO. 5, MAY 2012 Power-Trading in Wireless Communications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jayaweera, Sudharman K.

    1872 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 11, NO. 5, MAY 2012 Power-Trading the concept of power trading in wireless communications. We present a business model using sealed bid procurement auction based game theory for power-trading in cooperative wireless communication with quality

  5. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  6. Forecasting Mexican imports of U.S. corn, sorghum and soybeans under free trade and debt reduction scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lyford, Conrad Power

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    INFORMATION Mexican External Debt and Structural Adjustment U. S. - Mexico Agricultural Trade Commodity Specific Factors LITERATURE REVIEW Economic Integration and the Welfare Impacts of a FTA Modeling Methods METHOD OF ANALYSIS AND DATA Description... BACKGROUND INFORMATION To analyze corn, sorghum and soybean trade it is useful to outline several background factors. First, Mexican external debt and its impact on U. S. -Mexican agricultural trade will be discussed. Second, U. S. -Mexican agricultural...

  7. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL 21,NO 3, AUGUST 2006 Reliability and Cost trade-off in Multi-Area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL 21,NO 3, AUGUST 2006 Reliability and Cost trade-area power systems. The objective is to obtain a suitable trade off between system reliability and cost-off in Multi-Area Power System Generation Expansion Using Dynamic Programming and Global Decomposition Panida

  8. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  9. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  10. vol. 170, no. 6 the american naturalist december 2007 Natural Variation in a Testosterone-Mediated Trade-Off

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murphy, Troy G.

    -Mediated Trade-Off between Mating Effort and Parental Effort Joel W. McGlothlin,* Jodie M. Jawor, and Ellen D October 10, 2007 abstract: Male birds frequently face a trade-off between acquiring mates and caring for offspring. Hormone manipulation studies in- dicate that testosterone often mediates this trade

  11. The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

  12. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  13. Trade Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ashford, Nicholas A.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In an otherwise insightful and thoughtful article, Sebastian Pfotenhauer (Trade Policy Is Science Policy,” Issues, Fall 2013) might better have entitled his contribution “Trade Policy Needs to Be Reconciled with Science ...

  14. Heterogeneity and Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Costinot, Arnaud

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    s ), and, because of free trade in …nal goods, factor price2007], Wealth Heterogeneity and Trade, mimeo Uni- versity ofTheory of International Trade, Cambridge University Press. [

  15. Trade and institutions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahakitsiri, Doungdao

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    xi Chapter 1 Trade, Wage Premia and Labor1.2.2 Thailand: trade policy and labor market . . . . . 1.33.4 Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions . . . . . . .

  16. EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the fluctuating output from wind farms into power plant dispatching and energy trading, wind power predictionsEWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state

  17. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  18. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  19. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  20. NAFTA, Trade, and Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blecker, Robert A.; Esquivel, Gerardo

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    many reasons why expanded trade with Mexico and efforts toin the U.S. interest. First, trade with Mexico is more of afor the United States than trade with most Asian countries.

  1. Essays in international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romalis, John

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis is a collection of essays on the effect of trade costs on international trade. Chapter 1 derives and empirically examines how factor proportions determine the structure of commodity trade when international ...

  2. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  3. TRADE COSTS AND THE GAINS FROM TRADE IN CROP AGRICULTURE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tullos, Desiree

    TRADE COSTS AND THE GAINS FROM TRADE IN CROP AGRICULTURE JEFFREY J. REIMER AND MAN LI We develop trade, and the elasticity of trade volumes to trade costs. The distribution of the gains from trade the extent by which changes in one country are transmitted to others. Key words: geography, grains, trade

  4. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  5. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  6. Emissions Trading and Social Justice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Farber, Daniel A

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    David  M.  Driesen,  Does  Emissions  Trading  Encourage  Jason  Coburn,  Emissions  Trading   and   Environmental  Szambelan,  U.S.  Emissions  Trading  Markets  for  SO 2  

  7. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES TRADE BOOMS, TRADE BUSTS, AND TRADE COSTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES TRADE BOOMS, TRADE BUSTS, AND TRADE COSTS David S. Jacks Christopher M Nottingham GEP Trade Costs Conference. Finally, Jacks gratefully acknowledges the Social Sciences that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. #12;Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs

  8. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  9. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  10. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  11. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  12. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  13. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  14. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  15. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  16. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS: The contribution of power production by Photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly of the electricity grids and for energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output

  17. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  18. Trade and Workforce Changeover in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muendler, Marc-Andreas

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    trade theory that foreign trade expands less schooling-conclusion of the ?rst wave of trade reforms between 1991stable both before and after trade liberalization. Between

  19. Trade Secrets.PDF

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ENERGY OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL OFFICE OF INSPECTIONS INSPECTION OF THE LICENSING OF TRADE SECRETS BY SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES MARCH 2002 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY...

  20. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  1. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  2. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  4. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  5. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  6. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  7. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  8. AgFoodTradeAgFoodTrade New Issues in Agricultural,New Issues in Agricultural,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    AgFoodTradeAgFoodTrade New Issues in Agricultural,New Issues in Agricultural, Food & Bioenergy TradeFood & Bioenergy Trade AgFoodTradeAgFoodTrade New Issues in Agricultural,New Issues in Agricultural, Food & Bioenergy TradeFood & Bioenergy Trade AgFoodTradeAgFoodTrade New Issues in Agricultural

  9. Regulatory Entry Barriers and Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tobal, Martin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Economic International trade policy for oligopolisticquality, and international trade, 2009. [8] R.C. Feenstra,Market structure and foreign trade . [17] P.R. Lane and G.M.

  10. Water Quality Trading Program (Ohio)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Water quality trading is a tool for achieving water quality improvements. Under the right circumstances, trading has the potential to yield both environmental and economic benefits, while...

  11. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  12. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  13. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  14. Tough Choices: Determinants of Senator's Trade Votes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aldrich, John; Brinegar, Adam; Kramer, Claire; Merolla, Jennifer

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Guide to the Politics of Trade and Foreign Investment.Destler, I.M. 1986. American Trade Politics: System UnderP. Quinn. 1994. “Free Trade, Fair Trade, Strategic Trade,

  15. Discussion of "Development and Verification of an Analytical Solution for Fore-casting Nonlinear Kinematic Flood Waves" by Sergio E. Serrano

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Kinematic Flood Waves" by Sergio E. Serrano Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, July/August 2006, Vol. 11, No presents an interesting method to forecast nonlinear kinematic flood waves (Serrano, 2006). As a first to the Kinematic Wave Equation (KWE). The range of time lags for which this analytical solution is applicable being

  16. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  17. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  18. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  19. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  20. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  1. Essays on Trade and Production Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noguera, Guillermo Marcelo

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1.2 The Value Added Content of Trade . . . . . 1.33.4 Trade Costs over Time . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5One . . . . . . . . . .Sharing and Trade in 2 Augmented

  2. Carbon Trading Protocols for Geologic Sequestration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoversten, Shanna

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    EU ETS: European Union Emissions Trading System GHG: Greenstarts operating an emissions trading scheme (ETS) similarGovernments operating emissions trading systems face the

  3. Caribbean Studies, Vol. 41, No. 2, July -December 2013, p. 31-60 Elisabeth Cunin, Odile Hoffmann

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Caribbean Studies, Vol. 41, No. 2, July - December 2013, p. 31-60 1 Elisabeth Cunin, Odile Hoffmann)" and participated in the European project EURESCL "Slave Trade, Slavery, hal-01053043,version1- #12;Caribbean1- #12;Caribbean Studies, Vol. 41, No. 2, July - December 2013, p. 31-60 3 From colonial domination

  4. Corporate governance and insider trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rozanov, Konstantin A

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    I investigate the relation between corporate governance and insider trading by corporate executives. Despite the general view that trade on non-public information adversely affects capital market participants, the impact ...

  5. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Vol. 1, No. 1, 1999

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graves, Stephen C.

    50 Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Vol. 1, No. 1, 1999 1523 policy we characterize the inventory random variable and use this to find the safety stock requirements, inventory managers often rely on forecasts based on a time series of prior demand, such as a weighted moving

  6. Essays on trade, CO?, and the environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shapiro, Joseph S

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The first chapter of this thesis uses a general equilibrium model of trade and the environment to investigate two questions. First, how do the gains from trade compare against the environmental costs of trade? Trade can ...

  7. Automated Detection of Anomalous Shipping Manifests to Identify Illicit Trade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Chikkagoudar, Satish

    2013-11-12T23:59:59.000Z

    We describe an approach to analyzing trade data which uses clustering to detect similarities across shipping manifest records, classification to evaluate clustering results and categorize new unseen shipping data records, and visual analytics to provide to support situation awareness in dynamic decision making to monitor and warn against the movement of radiological threat materials through search, analysis and forecasting capabilities. The evaluation of clustering results through classification and systematic inspection of the clusters show the clusters have strong semantic cohesion and offer novel ways to detect transactions related to nuclear smuggling.

  8. The Illegal Timber Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Illegal Timber Trade: The Problem & Potential Solutions Presentation for World Bank Workshop@earthsight.org.uk #12;Some of the largest bilateral Illegal timber flows*: By volume (rwe): 1. Logs Russia ­ China 12/Sawn Burma ­ China 1.6 mill m3 (until 2005) Timber vs Processed Products Illegally Sourced vs Illegally

  9. WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL AND OIL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR · FISH THIS REPORT IS A GENERAL ACCOUNT OF THE WORLD ' S PRO- DUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL AND OIL. IN 1959- DICATE WHAT IS INCLUDED BESIDES FISHMEAL AND FISH BODY OIL. #12;WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN FISH MEAL

  10. WORKFLOW SIMULATION FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomborson, Clark

    WORKFLOW SIMULATION FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE Qiang Dong Supervised by Professor Clark Thomborson's competitive world. International trade has received some academic attention as an application of Business Process Reengineering. A major issue in international trade is due to problems pertaining to mutual

  11. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028677 Model Calibration and Automated Trading Agent for Euro

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    technical analysis indicators. This approach takes advantage of boosting's feature selection capability This approach has been applied to forecast and trade S&P 500 index futures [58, 15], the Warsaw stock price index 20 (WIG20) futures [60], and Korea stock index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures [38]. Hamid and Iqbal [33

  12. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  13. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  14. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  15. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  16. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  17. International Trade of Biofuels (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years, the production and trade of biofuels has increased to meet global demand for renewable fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel contribute much of this trade because they are the most established biofuels. Their growth has been aided through a variety of policies, especially in the European Union, Brazil, and the United States, but ethanol trade and production have faced more targeted policies and tariffs than biodiesel. This fact sheet contains a summary of the trade of biofuels among nations, including historical data on production, consumption, and trade.

  18. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  20. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  1. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  2. Sikkim and Himalayan Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sen, Jahar

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Lama. 6 The merchandise imported from Sikkim to Darjeeling, as the report indicated, consisted of horses, cattle including sheep and goats. blankets. salt. musk. wax, ghee, oranges. millet, rice, lime and 11 copper. The imports in 1863 were nearly... would be exported to Sikkim and Tibet replacing brick tea imported from Lhasa and China. Trade was conducted in four routes in Sikkim : two via Namchee and Chadam to the Great Rangeet and two via Zeeme to Goke and Tramduc to Colbong. The Tibetan...

  3. The New Political Economy of Trade : : Heterogeneous Firms and Trade Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plouffe, Michael

    Lobbying on Global Trade. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Roots of American Trade Policy. ’ World Politics 49.3. 309-The Politics of Foreign Trade. Chicago: Aldine- Atherton,

  4. Trade Productivity Upgrading, Trade Fragmentation, and FDI in Manufacturing: The Asian Development Experience

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh, Nirvikar; Mora, Jesse

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wang. “How Vertically Specialized is Chinese Trade? ” U.S.International Trade Commission, Office of Economics WorkingDecomposing China-Japan-U.S. Trade: Vertical Specialization,

  5. ELECTORAL BARRIERS TO TRADE:Measuring the Effects of Income and Political Participation on Trade Openness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boussalis, Constantine

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    preferences for "open" or "protectionist" trade policies. Aseconomic consequences of free trade rise, those The authorsA Guide to Measures of Trade Policy and Openness", presented

  6. Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tufts University

    Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia: Capital Controls and the US-Colombia Trade Agreement@bu.edu #12;Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia: Capital Controls and the US-Colombia Trade Agreement SerieBrief # 66 | Abril 2011 Trading Away Financial Stability in Colombia: Capital Controls and the US-Colombia

  7. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  8. WORKING PAPER N 2008 -52 Trade in services and trade in goods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    WORKING PAPER N° 2008 - 52 Trade in services and trade in goods: Differences and complementarities Carolina Lennon JEL Codes: F12, F15, L8 Keywords: International trade in services, trade in goods, gravity ­ ÉCOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE halshs-00586223,version1-15Apr2011 #12;Trade in Services and Trade in Goods

  9. Tools of the Trade: The Socio-Technology of Arbitrage in a Wall Street Trading Room

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schweik, Charles M.

    Tools of the Trade: The Socio-Technology of Arbitrage in a Wall Street Trading Room Daniel Beunza at the Santa Fe Institute. #12;2 Tools of the Trade: The Socio-Technology of Arbitrage in a Wall Street Trading of trading in the era of quantitative finance. To do so, we conduct an ethnography of arbitrage, the trading

  10. CORROSION SCIENCE SECTION CORROSION--Vol. 63, No. 6 577

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Motta, Arthur T.

    CORROSION SCIENCE SECTION CORROSION--Vol. 63, No. 6 577 Submitted for publication September 2006, MI 48109. Trade name. Corrosion Behavior of Model Zirconium Alloys in Deaerated Supercritical Water supercritical water at 500°C for up to 150 days in an effort to determine their corrosion behavior

  11. Essays on International Finance and Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Li

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Mobility,” in Brookings Trade Forum: 2001, ed. by Susan M.745–75. _______, 1994, “Dynamics of the Trade Balance andthe Terms of Trade: The J-Curve? ” American Economic Review,

  12. Trade Liberalization And Poverty Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Trade Liberalization And Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 Barbara COELLO World Bank Madior-28Mar2014 #12;1 Trade liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 Barbara Coello, the World liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 Abstract This paper shows the evolution of poverty

  13. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  14. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  15. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  16. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  17. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  18. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  19. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  20. Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis, Options and Trade-offs, Transition and Long-term Presentation on Hydrogen...

  1. Green Industrial Policy: Trade and Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Stevenson, Megan

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Papers Year 2012 Paper 1126 Green Industrial Policy: Trade© 2012 by author(s). Green Industrial Policy: Trade andreality and the potential for green indus- trial policy. We

  2. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  3. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  4. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  5. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  6. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 877 Electricity Price Curve Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huo, Xiaoming

    --Electricity forward curve, electricity spot price, forecasting, locational marginal price, manifold learning. IIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 877 Electricity Price Curve approach for the modeling and analysis of electricity price curves by ap- plying the manifold learning

  7. ACEEE Int. J. on Electrical and Power Engineering, Vol. 01, No. 03, Dec 2010 2010 ACEEE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    . With an accurate forecast, the basic operating functions like thermal and hydrothermal UC, economic dispatch, fuelACEEE Int. J. on Electrical and Power Engineering, Vol. 01, No. 03, Dec 2010 64 © 2010 ACEEE DOI of EEE, Pondicherry Engineering College, Pondicherry ­ 605 014 E-mail: asir_70@pec.edu Abstract

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  9. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  10. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  11. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  12. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  13. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  14. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  16. Endogenous trade protection under regional trade agreements: the Andean case

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sanchez Bizot, Gustavo

    2006-08-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Endogenous tariff formation has been the subject of theoretical studies that attempt to determine the fundamental economic variables that influence the structure of industry protection implemented by international trade policy makers. An empirical...

  17. Replicating the carry trade through an exchange traded fund

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shan, Jonathan (Jonathan W.)

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    There is an overarching belief that the carry trade is a simple investment strategy based on the popular mantra of buying low and selling high. However, in reality, there are several factors that need to be taken into ...

  18. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  19. United States Trade and Foreign Labor Interests: The Effects on Foreign Labor of Linking Trade with Labor Provisions in Bilateral U.S. Free Trade Agreements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Soleimani, Jonathan

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Daniel K. "The End of the Big Trade Deal." The International2004. Ibid. Sandra Polaski, “Trade and Labor Standards: Afor International Peace: Trade, Equity, and Development

  20. Technology Trade and NAFTA Walter G. Park

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lansky, Joshua

    Technology Trade and NAFTA Walter G. Park Associate Professor Department of Economics American technology trade among member countries relative to their trade with the rest of the world. However, the extent and scope of technology trade varies by member countries. Mexico, for instance, is a recipient

  1. Emissions Trading: A Feasible Analysis for UBC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emissions Trading: A Feasible Analysis for UBC Vivian Hoffman, J Chisholm I. Introduction The GVRD environmental objectives are achieved. Emissions reduction credit trading (or emissions trading) is an example Valley (LFV). Section III describes the market-based instruments of emissions trading and facility

  2. Cap-and-Trade A. Denny Ellerman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MIT CEEEPR Cap-and-Trade A. Denny Ellerman Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emissions Trading for Energy and Environmental Policy Research #12;MIT CEEEPR Two Types of Air Emissions Trading · Credit- · OTC/SIP-Call NOx Budget Programs: 1999- · EU's CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme: 2005- ­ The first CO2

  3. Oil Trading Simon Basey / November 28, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheldon, Nathan D.

    of oil and gas. #12;9 Trading tactics · ARBITRAGE: trade the dislocation of prices between geographicalOil Trading Simon Basey / November 28, 2013 #12;2 What does IST do? Imports crude oil and other Markets BP's equity crude oil, NGLs and natural gas Generates entrepreneurial trading income Manages BP

  4. The Value of Emissions Trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.

    This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing attention on a here-to-fore neglected component: its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and ...

  5. NAIHC Convention and Trade Show

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National American Indian Housing Council's (NAIHC) most longstanding Annual Event, the 39th Annual NAIHC Convention and Trade Show is an opportunity to learn about tribal housing, attend...

  6. Securities trading of concepts (STOC)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dahan, Ely

    Identifying winning new product concepts can be a challenging process that requires insight into private consumer preferences. To measure consumer preferences for new product concepts, the authors apply a “securities trading ...

  7. Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs? Angela CHEPTEA, Alexandre to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs? Angela CHEPTEA INRA, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes, France, France Financial support received by the "New Issues in Agricultural, Food and Bio-energy Trade

  8. P-Trade the Generic P2P Trading Platform Foundations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Narasayya, Vivek

    P-Trade ­ the Generic P2P Trading Platform Foundations · Auctions are negotiation mechanisms configuration depends on multiple factors like traded good, participants, information available on the value of the traded good, etc. The system architecture of P-Trade · A central auction name server (ANS) containing

  9. Asia-Pacific Trade Economists' Conference Trade-Led Growth in Times of Crisis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Asia-Pacific Trade Economists' Conference Trade-Led Growth in Times of Crisis The World Trade session 2: The Crisis: A Catalyst for More Coherent Trade Policies and Inclusive Growth? Author: Patrick A or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. #12;1 Policy Brief October 26, 2009 The World Trade Regime

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  12. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  14. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  15. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  16. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  17. Rising College Premiums in Mexico: How Important Is Trade?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mehta, Aashish; Acuna, Belinda

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Domestic reform, trade and investment liberalisation, …G.H. , Harrison, A. , 1999. Trade Liberalization and WageG. , 1999. Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining

  18. Global Trade Policy Development in a Two-Track System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crump, Larry

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    publication 9 March 2006 global trade policy development inbetween nations that reduce trade barriers on a reciprocalmight enhance the global trade policy develop- ment process

  19. Emissions Trading, Electricity Industry Restructuring, and Investment in Pollution Abatement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowlie, Meredith

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Foss, B . "Carbon Emissions Trading is New Weapon to BattleBehavior and the Emission Trading Market, Resources andof Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading." The Journal of

  20. BP's Perspective on Emissions Purdue Emissions Trading Workshop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    BP's Perspective on Emissions Trading Purdue Emissions Trading Workshop April 30, 2010 Mark - Government policies can create a carbon price via three primary mechanisms: - Emissions trading (BP's strong

  1. From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dungey, Mardi; Henry, Olan; McKenzie, Michael

    will use small limit orders to search for trading counter parties. Once they have identified a dealer who has indicated a willingness to trade, they will enter into quantity negotiations, i.e. a workup will take place. This process affords greater anonymity... the dataset and characterises the data in terms of transaction size, intensity and workups. A comprehensive examination of the data is undertaken and the analysis suggests that the information content of news arrival, volume and workup time each have a role...

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  3. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  4. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  5. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  6. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  7. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  8. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  9. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  11. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  13. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  14. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  16. Aspects of Late Helladic sea trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bachhuber, Christoph Stephen

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The trade mechanisms joining the Mycenaean Aegean to the greater Levant have intrigued and eluded Bronze Age scholarship since the earliest discoveries of foreign objects in Mycenaean burials. In the past decade, topics of interregional trade...

  17. Essays on international trade and investment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tang, Heiwai

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation consists of three essays on international trade and investment. In the first essay, I study how cross-country differences in labor market institutions shape the pattern of international trade with a focus ...

  18. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    coal, oil, gas) to international trade in products (Davis etas traded oil). Globally, consumption of products was moreproducts consumed in many of the same countries increasingly rely on coal, oil and

  19. Essays on trades and security prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Obizhaeva, Anna

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis consists of three chapters that investigate the complex relation between security prices and trades of market participants. In the first chapter, I study the evolution of stock prices after trades with different ...

  20. Essays on Trade and Production Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noguera, Guillermo Marcelo

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    content, the bilateral VAX ratio of China-U.S. trade is: vaillustrates that the bilateral VAX ratio removes both theTherefore, the bilateral VAX ratio for Japan-U.S. trade is

  1. Emission trading with absolute and intensity caps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Jaemin

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Kyoto Protocol introduced emission trading to help reduce the cost of compliances for the Annex B countries that have absolute caps. However, we need to expand the emission trading to cover developing countries in order ...

  2. Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    in Agricultural, Food and Bioenergy Trade (AGFOODTRADE)" (Grant Agreement No. 212036) research project, funded production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading

  3. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  4. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  5. Fact sheet EU poll illegal timber trade Illegal logging and related timber trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    March 2009 Fact sheet EU poll illegal timber trade Illegal logging and related timber trade Illegal level is needed to halt the trade in illegal timber and timber products on the European market trade. It has clarified obligations for all companies in the supply chain to prove the legality

  6. ICTSD Project on Trade and Sustainable Land Management International Centre for Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ICTSD Project on Trade and Sustainable Land Management ICTSD International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development Selected Issue Briefs ICTSD Programme on Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development Trade and Sustainable Land Management in Drylands August 2007 #12;#12;August 2007 ICTSD Programme

  7. Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: the Negative Eect of New Trade Flows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: the Negative Eect of New Trade : 10.1007/s11079-014-9318-8 #12;Abstract This paper questions the impact of trade integration on business cycle synchronization in the EMU by distinguishing increase of existing trade flows (the intensive

  8. Commerce and Trade 17-307 Chapter 17. COMMERCE AND TRADE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richerson, Peter J.

    Commerce and Trade 17-307 Chapter 17. COMMERCE AND TRADE I. Introduction A. The General Division and trade are unusual in animals, especially among the "higher" vertebrates. We have to go to "lower that humans engage in division of labor and trade on a variety of scales ranging from the family (division

  9. Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs? Angela Cheptea1 approach is widely used to explain trade patterns between countries. In this article we question the simple application of this approach to product/sector-level trade on two grounds. First, we demonstrate

  10. China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% China's forest products trade falls nearly 18%

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% China's forest products trade falls nearly 18% 11/08/2009 - 09:05 According to China's latest Customs statistics, foreign trade of China's forest products in the first five months showed a year-on-year general downturn. The total value of foreign trade of China

  11. Illegal Logging and Related Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted by Stephen Austin and Sons Ltd The material selected for the printing of this report is Elemental Chlorine framework 14 3.1.3 Checks and balances 16 3.1.4 International trade cooperation 18 3.1.5 Ensuring a balance

  12. Energy trading and information systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This document contains reports which were presented at the meeting on Energy Trading and Information Systems. Topics were concerned with the importance and use of information systems to the natural gas industry. Individual papers have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

  13. Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 1, January 2012, 1114 Financial engineering at Columbia University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hone, James

    Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 1, January 2012, 11­14 Financial engineering at Columbia of quantitative finance, including derivative securi- ties, risk management, portfolio optimization, trading. Photographs by Mark Broadie. Quantitative Finance ISSN 1469­7688 print/ISSN 1469­7696 online ß 2012 Taylor

  14. Toolbox Safety Talk DOT Materials of Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pawlowski, Wojtek

    Toolbox Safety Talk DOT ­ Materials of Trade Environmental Health & Safety Facilities Safety by Trades personnel that meet the definition of hazardous materials even though they may be sold as consumer commodities. The DOT regulations have exceptions for Materials of Trade (MOT). The MOT exception provides

  15. IATP | Trade Observatory | Headlines q What's new

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IATP | Trade Observatory | Headlines q Home q What's new q Geneva Update q Headlines q Library q Treaty Database q Related sites q About Trade Observatory Select a category to display: Archives August Industries Unite to Seek Free and Fair Trade Canada NewsWire July 8, 2003 Email this pageCanada News

  16. Trade and Resource Policy with Overlapping Generations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry S.

    Trade and Resource Policy with Overlapping Generations Larry Karp Armon Rezai July 23, 2013 Abstract Trade changes incentives to protect an open-access natural resource. In an OLG setting autarchy. Trade reverses these incentives. In a dynamic political economy, resource policies in both

  17. "Extreme Project Management" One World Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guiltinan, Mark

    "Extreme Project Management" One World Trade Center A special presentation with a discussion of managing multiple large projects at the World Trade Center site with multiple adjacencies, complicated 1984), PE, PMP, is the Program Director for One World Trade Center. Lynda Tollner, is a Program

  18. Trade and Resource Sustainability with Overlapping Generations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry S.

    Trade and Resource Sustainability with Overlapping Generations Larry Karp Armon Rezai March 28, 2014 Abstract Trade changes incentives to protect an open-access natural resource. In an OLG setting autarchy. Trade reverses these incentives. In a dynamic political economy, agents without bequest motives

  19. The Trade and Climate Change Joint Agenda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Trade and Climate Change Joint Agenda CEPS Working Document No. 295/June 2008 Thomas L. Brewer Abstract Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have............................................................................ 6 3.2 Coverage of the Multilateral Climate and Trade Regimes

  20. Trade Pattern and Economic Development when Endogenous

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trade Pattern and Economic Development when Endogenous and Exogenous Comparative Advantages Coexist Papers Center for International Development at Harvard University #12;CID Working Paper no. 3 Trade is divided between commercialized sector which trades with foreign country and self-sufficient sector which

  1. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  4. N E W S F R O M T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y I N S T I T U T E ENERGYnotesENERGYnotesVol. 3, Issue 4December 2005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENERGYnotesENERGYnotesVol. 3, Issue 4December 2005 Emissions Credit Trading Programs: E V A L U A T I N G P emissions trading programs, a UC Energy Institute researcher is exam- ining how existing programs efficient and environmentally benign power sources to meet society's ever-growing thirst for energy

  5. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  6. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  7. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  8. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  9. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  11. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  12. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  13. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  14. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  15. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  16. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  17. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  18. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  20. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  1. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  2. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  3. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  4. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  5. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  7. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  9. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  10. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  11. The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kwon, Roy

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Washington DC: World Bank. World Trade Organization.2010. World Trade Report2010: Trade in Natural Resources. Geneva, Switzerland: WTO

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. 7233Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 32 / Thursday, February 18, 2010 / Notices 1 VAM Drilling USA, Inc., Texas Steel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    7233Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 32 / Thursday, February 18, 2010 / Notices 1 VAM Drilling USA, Inc., Texas Steel Conversion, Inc., Rotary Drilling Tools, TMK IPSCO, and the United Steel, Paper OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration [A­570­965] Drill Pipe From the People's Republic of China

  14. Regulation, Allocation, and Leakage in Cap-and-Trade Markets for CO2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bushnell, Jim B; Chen, Yihsu

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    competitiveness in the eu emissions trading scheme: Policyand-trade systems for emissions trading is the allocation orciency of the resulting emissions trading market. Certainly

  15. U.S. Timber Production, Trade, Consumption,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    and Technology Assessment Unit at the Forest Products Laboratory. Chris McKeever created computer files managers, forest industries, trade associations, forestry schools, renewable resource organizations

  16. Facing an Arbitrage Opportunity: Trade or Wait?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2014-12-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Dec 9, 2014 ... The results obtained herein are in contrast to the standard textbook arbitrage trading ..... 3.2.1 Graphic Illustration and Numerical Experiments.

  17. International Electricity Trade - Open Access | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    DOE has consistently expressed its policy that international electricity trade should be subject to the same principles of comparable open access and non-discrimination that apply...

  18. U.S. Agriculture and International Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCorkle, Dean; Benson, Geoffrey A.; Marchant, Mary; Rosson, C. Parr

    1999-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

    by high tariffs and nontariff barriers. International trade has a major impact on U.S. agriculture. Exports are crucial, providing a market for a major share of crop production and a growing share of meat output. In 1996, 28 percent of U.S. farm cash... upheavals in the countries of the for- mer Soviet Union will not end soon and this will be an impediment to economic growth and expanded trade. The most recent trade agreement under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the so-called Uruguay...

  19. Multilateral, regional and bilateral energy trade governance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leal-Arcas, Rafael; Grasso, Costantino; Rios, Juan Alemany (Queen Mary Univ. of London (United Kingdom))

    2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The current international energy trade governance system is fragmented and multi-layered. Streamlining it for greater legal cohesiveness and international political and economic cooperation would promote global energy security. The current article explores three levels of energy trade governance: multilateral, regional and bilateral. Most energy-rich countries are part of the multilateral trading system, which is institutionalized by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The article analyzes the multilateral energy trade governance system by focusing on the WTO and energy transportation issues. Regionally, the article focuses on five major regional agreements and their energy-related aspects and examines the various causes that explain the proliferation of regional trade agreements, their compatibility with WTO law, and then provides several examples of regional energy trade governance throughout the world. When it comes to bilateral energy trade governance, this article only addresses the European Union’s (EU) bilateral energy trade relations. The article explores ways in which gaps could be filled and overlaps eliminated whilst remaining true to the high-level normative framework, concentrating on those measures that would enhance EU energy security.

  20. AME40463: Senior Design Project Spring 2010 ENGINEERING TRADE STUDY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Batill, Stephen M.

    AME40463: Senior Design Project ­ Spring 2010 ENGINEERING TRADE STUDY The engineering trade study indicate how that information influenced design decisions for the platform. Trade Study Proposal (due Feb prior to the beginning of the all-class meeting at 9:30 a.m. Trade Study Report (due Feb. 23): The trade

  1. A Non Parametric Model for the Forecasting of the Venezuelan Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Costanzo, Sabatino; Dehne, Wafaa; Prato, Hender

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A neural net model for forecasting the prices of Venezuelan crude oil is proposed. The inputs of the neural net are selected by reference to a dynamic system model of oil prices by Mashayekhi (1995, 2001) and its performance is evaluated using two criteria: the Excess Profitability test by Anatoliev and Gerko (2005) and the characteristics of the equity curve generated by a trading strategy based on the neural net predictions. ----- Se introduce aqui un modelo no parametrico para pronosticar los precios del petroleo Venezolano cuyos insumos son seleccionados en base a un sistema dinamico que explica los precios en terminos de dichos insumos. Se describe el proceso de recoleccion y pre-procesamiento de datos y la corrida de la red y se evaluan sus pronosticos a traves de un test estadistico de predictibilidad y de las caracteristicas del Equity Curve inducido por la estrategia de compraventa bursatil generada por dichos pronosticos.

  2. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  3. OECD TRADE POLICY WORKING PAPERS The OECD Trade Policy Working Paper series is designed to make available to a wide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    #12;OECD TRADE POLICY WORKING PAPERS The OECD Trade Policy Working Paper series is designed to make been declassified on the responsibility of the Working Party of the Trade Committee under the OECD.contact@oecd.org. OECD TRADE POLICY WORKING PAPERS are published on www.oecd.org/trade © OECD 2011 Applications

  4. Essays on International Finance and Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Li

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Turkey UK Canada Mexico Norway Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxForecast horizon Canada Norway Mexico Turkey MSE MAE DIR MSEForecast horizon Canada Norway Mexico Turkey MSE MAE DIR MSE

  5. International Trade and Sustainability: A survey Louis Dupuy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    International Trade and Sustainability: A survey Louis Dupuy LAREFI Working Paper N°2012-01 April, institutions and international trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3 International trade in the sustainability literature 11 3.1 Openness and sustainability

  6. Purdue Climate Change Research Center Emissions Trading Workshop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Purdue Climate Change Research Center Emissions Trading Workshop Introduction and Overview manner. Workshop rather than conference. #12;What is Emissions Trading? (or "Cap and Trade") · Cap & Enforcement · Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) mechanisms for reductions #12;Five Emissions

  7. Market power in international carbon emissions trading: a laboratory test

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlén, Björn.

    The prospect that governments of one or a few large countries, or trading blocs, would engage in international greenhouse gas emissions trading has led several policy analysts to express concerns that trade would be ...

  8. Market Microstructure Patterns Powering Trading and Surveillance Agents

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cao, Longbing

    Market Microstructure Patterns Powering Trading and Surveillance Agents Longbing Cao (University are then used for powering market trading and surveillance agents for automatically detecting market models. From data analysis perspective, we view it valuable for smart trading in designing legal

  9. Auction Market System in Electronic Security Trading Platform

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Auction Market System in Electronic Security Trading Platform Li Xihao Bielefeld Graduate School security trading platform Xetra oper- ated by Frankfurt Stock Exchange, we consider the Xetra auction. Keywords: agent-based modelling, computational market experiment, electronic security trading platform

  10. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  11. Port Royal, Jamaica, and the slave trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, David A

    2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of the eighteenth century in the Florida Keys, Henrietta Marie had just quit Port Royal after off-loading her human cargo. The artifact collection of shackles, ship's equipment and trade goods represents the trappings of the maritime slave trade. Particularly...

  12. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  13. DOE GC Joins Customs Service Trade Data System to Strengthen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    GC Joins Customs Service Trade Data System to Strengthen Enforcement Effort DOE GC Joins Customs Service Trade Data System to Strengthen Enforcement Effort February 14, 2011 -...

  14. Goldschmidt Conference Abstracts 2009 A437 Archaeometric evidence of trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sparks, Donald L.

    Goldschmidt Conference Abstracts 2009 A437 Archaeometric evidence of trade of leucite Roman Volcanic province, Italy), a fact that implies an specific and important trade way of heavy

  15. DOE Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information DOE Proposes New Rules to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information March 8,...

  16. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Liberalizing Trade in Environmenta...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Liberalizing Trade in Environmental Goods Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Liberalizing Trade in Environmental Goods...

  17. DOE Finalizes New Rule to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Finalizes New Rule to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information DOE Finalizes New Rule to Protect Trade Secrets and Confidential Business Information May 5, 2011...

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  19. Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Gustafson, William I.; Wang, Hailong

    2014-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

  20. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  1. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  3. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  4. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  5. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  6. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  7. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  8. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  9. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  10. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  11. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  12. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  13. Systemic trade-risk of critical resources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Klimek, Peter; Thurner, Stefan

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade-risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. On a global and a regional level we show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of non-fuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the world-trade network of or spanned by these resources. On the global level we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource, as measured by its trade volume compared to extractable reserves, is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. On the regional level we find that to some extent the region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade-risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade-risk indica...

  14. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  15. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  16. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  17. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  18. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  20. 54432 Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 170 / Thursday, September 1, 2011 / Notices the contact information above by 5 p.m.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .ohanlon@trade.gov or to the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Advisory Committee, Office of Energy and Environmental Technologies and other Federal agencies to take this opportunity to comment on proposed and/or continuing information54432 Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 170 / Thursday, September 1, 2011 / Notices the contact

  1. IEEE JOURNAL ON SELECTED AREAS IN COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 28, NO. 7, SEPTEMBER 2010 1063 Fair Energy-Efficient Resource Allocation in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Xin

    IEEE JOURNAL ON SELECTED AREAS IN COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 28, NO. 7, SEPTEMBER 2010 1063 Fair Energy-Efficient Abstract--In this paper we consider the energy-efficient re- source allocation that minimizes a general-called -fair cost functions is derived to balance the trade- off between efficiency and fairness in energy-efficient

  2. Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 3, 2012 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01696.x Detecting Nuclear Materials Smuggling: Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Yu

    identified as a particularly grave threat. The system for detecting illicit nuclear materialsRisk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 3, 2012 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01696.x Detecting Nuclear States, assemble them into a nuclear device, and use this device on a target on U.S. soil. Illicit trade

  3. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  4. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  5. FAIR TRADE CONTRACTS FOR SOME, AN INSURANCE Claire CHAMBOLLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    FAIR TRADE CONTRACTS FOR SOME, AN INSURANCE FOR OTHERS Claire CHAMBOLLE Sylvaine PORET 2009 Cahier://www.enseignement.polytechnique.fr/economie/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00367500,version1-11Mar2009 #12;Fair Trade Contracts the impact of Fair Trade contracts between sub-groups of farmers and a Fair Trade organization on the spot

  6. World Trade Review http://journals.cambridge.org/WTR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    World Trade Review http://journals.cambridge.org/WTR Additional services for World Trade Review here Climate and trade policies: from mutual destruction to mutual support PATRICK A. MESSERLIN World Trade Review / Volume 11 / Issue 01 / January 2012, pp 53 - 80 DOI: 10.1017/S1474745611000395, Published

  7. Productivity and Firm Selection: Intra-National and International Trade.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sussex, University of

    Productivity and Firm Selection: Intra-National and International Trade. Gregory Corcos (NHH) Firm Selection: Intra- vs International Trade April 23, 2007 1 / 35 #12;Overview Objective: Quantify the productivity gains from inter- and intra-national trade. What we do in this paper: model the effect of trade

  8. International Trade and Unionization: Evidence from Reshad N. Ahsan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bandyopadhyay, Antar

    International Trade and Unionization: Evidence from India Reshad N. Ahsan University of Melbourne exploit an exogenous episode of trade liberalization to examine the impact of interna- tional trade and provides us with predictions on the relationship between trade and both unionization and union wages. We

  9. Trade and Foreign Investment in Business Services James R. Markusen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sussex, University of

    Trade and Foreign Investment in Business Services James R. Markusen Bridget Strand Abstract At some conceptual level, trade in goods and services are not that much different. However, the speed at which trade are quite different from those for trade in goods prompts us to take a more careful look. The paper begins

  10. Ecology 1993 Trade-offs between sprinting and clinging ability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bennett, Albert F.

    Functional Ecology 1993 7,28 1-286 Trade-offs between sprinting and clinging ability in Kenyan corresponding to those it uses most frequently; or (b) a trade-off exists between maximizing clinging architecture and composition may underlie this trade-off. Comparison with trade-offs in arboreal locomotor

  11. WORLD TRADE WEEK 2013 COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY SCHOLARSHIPS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    WORLD TRADE WEEK 2013 COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY SCHOLARSHIPS The World Trade Week 2013 Education Committee is sponsoring several $1000 scholarships for students intending to pursue a career in international trade relating to international trade. If a student's major does not have an international dimension

  12. 7Emissions Trading Workshop Summary Report Discussion Synthesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    7Emissions Trading Workshop Summary Report Discussion Synthesis Background On April 30, 2010, more than 70 people gathered for an all-day workshop on emissions trading at Purdue University's Discovery of different emission trading proposals. The need for such discussion is great. Pollution trading is a high

  13. The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading Tianyu Qi, Niven Trading Tianyu Qi* , Niven Winchester , Valerie J. Karplus and Xiliang Zhang Abstract Emissions trading of the European Union's Emissions Trading System with a new system in Australia in 2015, this paper simulates

  14. Electric trade in the United States 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1994, the wholesale trade market totaled 1.9 trillion kilowatthours, about 66% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1994 (ELECTRA), is the fifth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1994.

  15. Is international emissions trading always beneficial?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Babiker, Mustafa H.M.

    Economic efficiency is a major argument for the inclusion of an international emission permit trading system under the Kyoto Protocol. Using a partial equilibrium framework, energy system models have shown that implementing ...

  16. Equity and Emissions Trading in China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, D.

    China has embarked on an ambitious pathway for establishing a national carbon market in the next five to ten years. In this study, we analyze the distributional aspects of a Chinese emissions-trading scheme from ethical, ...

  17. The temporal efficiency of SO? emissions trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the temporal efficiency of the U.S. Acid Rain Program, which implemented a nationwide market for trading and banking sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission allowances. We first develop ...

  18. An empirical analysis of quantitative trading strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aiuchi, Masaharu

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Along with the increasing computing power, growing availability of various data streams, introduction of the electronic exchanges, decreasing trading costs and heating-up competition in financial investment industry, ...

  19. Trade and Workforce Changeover in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muendler, Marc-Andreas

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Rate and Job Flows in Brazil,” Journal of Policy Reform,intensive occupations in Brazil’s traded-goods sector isinput tari? (in z jt ). Brazil’s nominal exchange rate is

  20. Rick arbitrage : analysis and trading systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naheta, Akshay, 1981-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis we quantify the risk arbitrage investment process and create trading strategies that generate positive risk-adjusted returns. We use a sample of 895 stock swap mergers, cash mergers, and cash tender offers ...

  1. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrew, Robbie M; Davis, Steven J; Peters, Glen P

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energytrade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied inWithin this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO 2

  2. Essays on Trade and Production Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noguera, Guillermo Marcelo

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Cost Elasticity United States Top Sources Bias (%) China TopTotal Costs Normalized at 100 in 1995) Canada China MexicoChina and Korea: not distinguishing between final and intermediate goods causes the trade cost

  3. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  4. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  5. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  6. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  7. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  8. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  9. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  10. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  11. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  12. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  13. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  14. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  17. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  18. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  19. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  20. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  1. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  2. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  3. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  4. Electric trade in the United States, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wholesale trade in electricity plays an important role for the US electric utility industry. Wholesale, or bulk power, transactions allow electric utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. In 1996, the wholesale trade market totaled 2.3 trillion kilowatthours, over 73% of total sales to ultimate consumers. This publication, Electric Trade in the United States 1996 (ELECTRA), is the sixth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1996. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. 1 fig., 43 tabs.

  5. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  6. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  7. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  8. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  9. Publish or Patent: Bibliometric evidence for empirical trade-offs in national funding strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shelton, Robert D

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Multivariate linear regression models suggest a trade-off in allocations of national R&D investments. Government funding, and spending in the higher education sector, seem to encourage publications, whereas other components such as industrial funding, and spending in the business sector, encourage patenting. Our results help explain why the US trails the EU in publications, because of its focus on industrial funding - some 70% of its total R&D investment. Conversely, it also helps explain why the EU trails the US in patenting. Government funding is indicated as a negative incentive to high-quality patenting. The models here can also be used to predict an output indicator for a country, once the appropriate input indicator is known. This usually is done within a dataset for a single year, but the process can be extended to predict outputs a few years into the future, if reasonable forecasts can be made of the input indicators. We provide new forecasts about the further relationships of the US, the EU-2...

  10. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  11. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  12. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  13. EU-California Environmental Agreements: The Role of Trade in Emissions Permits and Escape Clauses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the role of trade in emissions permits and escape clauses. (agreements. Trade in emissions permits has ambiguous and inAlthough trade in emissions permits reduces the aggregate

  14. The OECD Anti-Bribery Convention: Changing the Currents of Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Souza, Anna

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Institutions and International Trade: a Reconsideration ofin Gravity Models of Trade and Integration,” Working paperDeterminants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a

  15. Measuring and moderating the water resource impact of biofuel production and trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fingerman, Kevin Robert

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.I! V! “Global issues of trade, energy, and subsidies haveal.  (2010).  Global  trade  and  environmental  impact  2005).  "Environmental  trade  measures,  the  shrimp-­?

  16. Emissions Trading and Air Toxics Emissions: RECLAIM and Toxics Regulation in the South Coast Air Basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Nancy J.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Emissions Trading and Air Toxics Emissions: RECLAIM anda mar- ket-based emissions trading program called theimpacts cre- ated by emissions trading programs that affect

  17. Strategic Behavior, Private Information, and Decentralization in the European Union Emissions Trading System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Malueg, David A.; Yates, Andrew J.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in the European Union emissions trading scheme. Rev EnvironDecentralization in the EU emissions trading scheme andthe European Union Emissions Trading System David A. Malueg

  18. Distributing Pollution Rights in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Are Outcomes Independent of Allocation?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowlie, Meredith; Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    policy- the RECLAIM emission trading policy." Environ.Incentives Market: a new emissions trading program for Lospolitical feasibility of emissions trading programs. See,

  19. Going Mobile: Emissions Trading Gets a Boost from Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credits

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goldschein, Perry S.

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Going Mobile: Emissions Trading Gets a Boost From Mobilehave tested various emissions trading policies to supplementAn Analysis of EPA's Emissions Trading Program, 6 YALE J. ON

  20. Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Limpaitoon, Tanachai

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Market power in emissions trading: strategically manipu-pricing under carbon emissions trading: A dominant firm with2008). Implications of CO2 emissions trading for short-run

  1. State Power and Trade-Environment Negotiations: Lessons from the EU, NAFTA and GATT/WTO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steinberg, Richard

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    several medium-sized powers, regional trading blocs are morestructure of power and interests in the world trading systemworld trading system, larger European powers have decided to

  2. Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Limpaitoon, Tanachai

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The case of wholesale power trading in Germany Power andY. (2011). Market power in emissions trading: strategicallyto model market power in permit trading. The conjectural

  3. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  4. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  5. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  6. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  7. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  8. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  9. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  10. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  11. International Trade of Wood Pellets (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The production of wood pellets has increased dramatically in recent years due in large part to aggressive emissions policy in the European Union; the main markets that currently supply the European market are North America and Russia. However, current market circumstances and trade dynamics could change depending on the development of emerging markets, foreign exchange rates, and the evolution of carbon policies. This fact sheet outlines the existing and potential participants in the wood pellets market, along with historical data on production, trade, and prices.

  12. The small firm enters international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steelquist, Laura McDowell

    1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    be & ditcd for ~ 6] information of benefit to the, smaller fir?& engaged i;& internationai trade. ~ The Small Business Adm inis Lrat ion ' s Fx~&&rt Marl' . t ', n n' for S. &ai 3 cr &'3 rms- provides a discussion of i oreigr I 3P] market analysis... for the small business firm and is useful in this field. However, this book does not cover the foreign cultux al environment, which may be the decisive factor in marketing, and provides no information con- cerning shipp. ', ng and finance. Many trade...

  13. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  14. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  15. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  16. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  17. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  18. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  19. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  20. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  1. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  2. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  3. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  4. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  5. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  6. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  7. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  8. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  9. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  10. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  11. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  13. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  14. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  15. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  16. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  17. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  18. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  19. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  20. 2015 ACI National Home Performance Conference and Trade Show...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    2015 ACI National Home Performance Conference and Trade Show 2015 ACI National Home Performance Conference and Trade Show May 4, 2015 9:00AM EDT to May 7, 2015 5:0...

  1. Credit and Trade References President and Fellows of Harvard College

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Credit and Trade References President and Fellows of Harvard College 1033 Massachusetts Avenue, 2nd;Trade References VWR International Risk Department Contact: Brian Newton TEL: 770-792-1271 FAX: 484

  2. Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Antràs, Pol

    The classical Heckscher?Ohlin?Mundell paradigm states that trade and capital mobility are substitutes in the sense that trade integration reduces the incentives for capital to flow to capital?scarce countries. In this paper ...

  3. The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hochman, Gal; Sexton, Steven; Zilberman, David D.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    prices. The reason: demand for biofuel increases, and ?rst-The Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment GalThe Economics of Trade, Biofuel, and the Environment ? Gal

  4. International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of emissions trade on IEA participation Ex ante heterogenousachieving ef?cient abatement. An IEA that combines trade inhelp in creating a successful IEA. It is reasonable to use

  5. agricultural trade liberalizations: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the politics of trade policy-making. However, this dissertation (more) Kim, In Song 2014-01-01 18 A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in...

  6. agricultural trade liberalization: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the politics of trade policy-making. However, this dissertation (more) Kim, In Song 2014-01-01 18 A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in...

  7. Paying a Visit: The Dalai Lama Effect on International Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuchs, Andreas; Klann, Nils-Hendrik

    2011-01-26T23:59:59.000Z

    The Chinese government frequently threatens that meetings between its trading partners’ officials and the Dalai Lama will be met with animosity and ultimately harm trade ties with China. We run a gravity model of exports to China from 159 partner...

  8. International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry; Zhao, Jinhua

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    trade policy, and environmental policy in an attempt to help2 Trade policy and environmental policy 3 The ef?ciency ofInstitutute for Environmental Policy Solultions. S TAVINS ,

  9. Secure Peer-to-Peer Trading for Multiplayer Games

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    GauthierDickey, Chris

    in multiplayer games. Finally, Bitcoin [10], a digital currency, is directly related to trading since they allow

  10. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  11. Electric trade in the United States 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication, Electric Trade in the US 1992 (ELECTRA), is the fourth in a series of reports on wholesale power transactions prepared by the Electric Data Systems Branch, Survey Management Division, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA). The electric trade data are published biennially. The first report presented 1986 data, and this report provides information on the electric power industry during 1992. The electric trade data collected and presented in this report furnish important information on the wholesale structure found within the US electric power industry. The patterns of interutility trade in the report support analyses of wholesale power transactions and provide input for a broader understanding of bulk power market issues that define the emerging national electric energy policies. The report includes information on the quantity of power purchased, sold, exchanged, and wheeled; the geographical locations of transactions and ownership classes involved; and the revenues and costs. Information on the physical transmission system are being included for the first time in this publication. Transmission data covering investor-owned electric utilities were shifted from the Financial Statistics of Selected Investor-Owned Electric Utilities to the ELECTRA publication. Some of the prominent features of this year`s report include information and data not published before on transmission lines for publicly owned utilities and transmission lines added during 1992 by investor-owned electric utilities.

  12. Adaptive systems for foreign exchange trading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    - cal analysis. Technical analysis attempts to predict markets by identifying patterns in the price;FinancialMarkets Jones CM (2001 & 2002). Much of it has concen- trated on high frequency (intraday) trading exchange markets. Professor Michael Dempster and Graham Bates, both of the Centre for Financial Research

  13. Optimal Trading Strategy Supply/Demand Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gabrieli, John

    prices through the changes in their supply/demand.2 Thus, to study how market participants trade can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices: November 15, 2004. This Draft: April 8, 2006 Abstract The supply/demand of a security in the market

  14. TRADE nontechnical training programs inventory. Volume I

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a continuing effort to facilitate communications and resource exchange among the DOE contractors, the TRADE (Training Resources and Data Exchange) Committee has compiled this volume. This inventory is one of four inventories, which taken together, total almost 1400 courses and reflect the range and focus of in-house training programs being offered throughout the DOE GOCO system by approximately 50 contractors.

  15. Federal Trade Commission Necesita Crdito o Seguro?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Comisión Federal de Comercio (Federal Trade Commission, FTC), la agencia nacional de protección del sus cuentas, es recolecta- da de su informe de crédito. A través de programas estadísticos, los a tiempo y en forma. Algunas compañías de seguros también usan la información en los informes de crédito

  16. Carbon Trading, Carbon Taxes and Social Discounting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weiblen, George D

    Carbon Trading, Carbon Taxes and Social Discounting Elisa Belfiori belf0018@umn.edu University of Minnesota Abstract This paper considers the optimal design of policies to carbon emissions in an economy, such as price or quantity controls on the net emissions of carbon, are insufficient to achieve the social

  17. Allowance trading: Market operations and regulatory response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bailey, K.A.; South, D.W.; McDermott, K.A.

    1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of the SO{sub 2} allowance system as defined by Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments offers utilities greater compliance flexibility than EPA technology standards, State Implementation Plan (SEP) performance standards, or EPA bubble/offset strategies. Traditional methods at best offered the utility the ability to trade emissions between different units at a particular plant. The SO{sub 2} emissions trading system advocated under Title IV will allow a utility to trade emissions across its utility system, and/or trade emissions between utilities to take advantage of interfirm control cost differences. The use of transferable emission allowances offers utilities greater flexibility in the choice of how to control emissions: the choices include fuel switching, flue gas scrubbing, environmental dispatch, repowering, and even the choice not to control emissions [as long as the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements are met]. The added flexibility allows utilities to choose the least cost manner of compliance with Title IV requirements. It is hoped (intended) that pollution control cost-minimization by individual utilities will in turn reduce the cost of controlling SO{sub 2} for the electric utility industry in aggregate. In addition, through the use of NO{sub x} emission averaging, the utility would average NO{sub x} emissions from different point sources in order to comply with the prescribed emission standard.

  18. Allowance trading: Market operations and regulatory response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bailey, K.A.; South, D.W.; McDermott, K.A.

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of the SO[sub 2] allowance system as defined by Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments offers utilities greater compliance flexibility than EPA technology standards, State Implementation Plan (SEP) performance standards, or EPA bubble/offset strategies. Traditional methods at best offered the utility the ability to trade emissions between different units at a particular plant. The SO[sub 2] emissions trading system advocated under Title IV will allow a utility to trade emissions across its utility system, and/or trade emissions between utilities to take advantage of interfirm control cost differences. The use of transferable emission allowances offers utilities greater flexibility in the choice of how to control emissions: the choices include fuel switching, flue gas scrubbing, environmental dispatch, repowering, and even the choice not to control emissions [as long as the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements are met]. The added flexibility allows utilities to choose the least cost manner of compliance with Title IV requirements. It is hoped (intended) that pollution control cost-minimization by individual utilities will in turn reduce the cost of controlling SO[sub 2] for the electric utility industry in aggregate. In addition, through the use of NO[sub x] emission averaging, the utility would average NO[sub x] emissions from different point sources in order to comply with the prescribed emission standard.

  19. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  20. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  1. THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MOROCCO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MOROCCO THE IMPORTANCE OF A GRADUAL Trade Policy Center Lahsen Abdelmalki (**) René Sandretto (**) (**) University Lyon 2 and GATE modalities of trade liberalization may have different impacts on the welfare, the rate of growth

  2. A Trade Space Model for Robotic Lunar Exploration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Trade Space Model for Robotic Lunar Exploration Zachary James Bailey, David W. Miller June 2010 SSL # 11-10 #12;#12;A Trade Space Model for Robotic Lunar Exploration Zachary James Bailey, David W of Technology. #12;2 #12;A Trade Space Model for Robotic Lunar Exploration by Zachary James Bailey Submitted

  3. SLAVE TRADE AND SLAVERY ON THE SWAHILI COAST, 150017501

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Chapter 4 SLAVE TRADE AND SLAVERY ON THE SWAHILI COAST, 1500­17501 Thomas Vernet Agreat deal of research has been carried out on the slave trade and slavery on the Swahili coast. John Middleton wrote on the coast, which demanded plentiful servile manpower. The slave trade, centered on Zanzibar, developed

  4. Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in the Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in the Model of Monopolistic Competition Jeffrey D. Sachs for International Development at Harvard University #12;CID Working Paper no. 14 Pattern of Trade and Economic into the model of monopolistic competition to investigate the interplay between trade policies and development

  5. Trade Diversion from Tomato Suspension Agreements Kathy Baylis*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    Trade Diversion from Tomato Suspension Agreements Kathy Baylis* Assistant Professor, Agriculture-3310 Abstract: Trade barriers can cause output to be diverted to other countries and into other products. We over four-fifths of the direct effects of the trade barrier. When the VPR was binding, Mexico exported

  6. An Interactive Computer Model of Two-Country Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamlen, Kevin W.

    91 An Interactive Computer Model of Two-Country Trade Bill Hamlen and Kevin Hamlen Abstract We introduce an interactive computer model of two-country trade that allows students to investigate is to present an interactive computer model of two-country international trade that allows students

  7. Trade-offs in signalling components differ with signalling effort

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertram, Sue

    ARTICLES Trade-offs in signalling components differ with signalling effort SUSAN M. BERTRAM on signal components, males that signal often might be forced to make trade-offs among these signalling limitations. We explored the conditions under which males make trade-offs among components of signalling

  8. Pro-Trade Democrats Go AWOL (NYT) 639 words

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopez-Carr, David

    Pro-Trade Democrats Go AWOL (NYT) 639 words Published: June 13, 2005 Back in 1993, Vice President Al Gore went on prime-time television to debate Ross Perot, a foe of free trade, in a clash Mr. Gore is widely believed to have won. The debate helped propel supporters of the North American Free Trade

  9. Security Trade Control Guidelines for Academic Exchange Agreements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takada, Shoji

    Security Trade Control Guidelines for Academic Exchange Agreements at Kyoto University Committee for Security Trade Control December 28, 2012 Recent years have seen an increasing number of academic exchange globalization. Under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA), which was put into effect in April 2010

  10. Trade and Exposure Kathryn M.E. Dominguez

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    Trade and Exposure Kathryn M.E. Dominguez Ford School of Public Policy, Department of Economics Are firms that engage in trade more vulnerable to exchange rate risk? In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements, firm value and trade. Our empirical work tests whether exchange

  11. North-South Standards Harmonization and International Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    North-South Standards Harmonization and International Trade Olivier CADOT Lausanne University Anne,version1-20Mar2014 #12;1 North-South Standards Harmonization and International Trade Anne-Célia Disdier investigate whether the technical requirements contained in North-South Agreements affect international trade

  12. Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Leigh Raymond

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Programs?* Leigh Raymond be inferred. #12;Can Affirmative Motivations Improve Compliance in Emissions Trading Programs? Abstract Early emissions trading programs have obtained a very high rate of compliance, in part by using continuous

  13. Emissions Trading: What Makes It Work? Julien Chevallier1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Emissions Trading: What Makes It Work? Julien Chevallier1 04 July 2009 Abstract: At the stage permits markets. Keywords: climate change policy; emissions trading; banking borrowing; initial allocation-4Jul2009 #12;2 Review of current climate policies The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS

  14. International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gabrieli, John

    International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG? Yichen Du and Sergey Paltsev Report No. 271;1 International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG? Yichen Du* and Sergey Paltsev* Abstract The introduction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an option for international trade has created a market for natural gas where

  15. Trading Functionality for Power within Applications Melanie Kambadur

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trading Functionality for Power within Applications Melanie Kambadur Columbia University melanie down a program, so they must err on the side of caution when trading performance for power. Compounding application to trade performance for power, it may not be for another, preventing the sys- tem from taking

  16. Taxes and Trading versus Intensity Standards: Second-Best Environmental Policies with Incomplete Regulation (Leakage) or Market Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holland, Stephen P.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2007) compares taxes and emissions trading in concentratedtaxes (equivalently emissions trading) may not be the best

  17. Edwin Zaccai (d.), Sustainable consumption, ecology and fair trade, Londres, Routledge, 2007 Is large-scale fair trade possible?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Edwin Zaccai (éd.), Sustainable consumption, ecology and fair trade, Londres, Routledge, 2007 1 Is large-scale fair trade possible? Ronan Le Velly Abstract The article presents the changes in the nature of the market relationship that are induced by the expansion of fair trade. It shows that the increase

  18. Trading Agent Competition Market Design Game Strategic Trader Game Conclusion and Future Work A Platform for Trading Agent Competition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Dongmo

    -2011 TAC Ad Auctions: 2009-2012 Power TAC: 2011-2012 #12;Trading Agent Competition Market Design GameTrading Agent Competition Market Design Game Strategic Trader Game Conclusion and Future Work A Platform for Trading Agent Competition Dongmo Zhang and Chun Gao Intelligent Systems Laboratory University

  19. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  20. Emerging Economies, Trade Policy, and Macroeconomic Shocks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.

    2014-05-09T23:59:59.000Z

    and across countries – as to how constrained these emerging economies are by WTO disciplines over their applied import tariff policies. Argentina, India, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, for example, each have years for which there are major changes... 0 Emerging Economies, Trade Policy, and Macroeconomic Shocks Chad P. Bown† The World Bank Meredith A. Crowley‡ University of Cambridge This version: March 2014 Abstract This paper estimates the impact of aggregate...

  1. Free Trade Agreements in the World Trade Organization: The Experience of East Asia and the Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turinov, Anna

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    at 4. 51. Id. at 4-5. FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS IN THE WTO miesits enthusiasm with respect to trade liber- alization at themultilateral level. Japan's trade policy has under- gone a

  2. Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh, Nirvikar; Mora, Jesse; Carolan, Terrie

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in the current analysis. Trade Dynamics in the East AsianProduct fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in aand William H. Branson, ed. , Trade and Structural Change in

  3. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  4. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  5. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  7. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  8. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  9. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  10. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  11. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  12. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  14. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  15. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  16. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  17. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  18. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  19. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  20. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  1. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  2. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  3. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  4. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  13. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  14. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  2. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  4. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  5. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  6. Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    ANNGSF) and for forecasting the one-hour-ahead heat load for a district heat load network (Seppälä et al and network analysis functions in power utilities. Since high-low temperature forecasts are usually provided-Rohani & Maratukulam, 1998). In other agricultural and environmental applications, even high-low temperature forecasts

  7. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  8. Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent´erieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

  9. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  10. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Communist China's foreign trade and its implication for Japan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, Leh-An

    1972-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    steel, machinery, chemicals, and medical equipment. Oesides sugar, Communist China also imports Cuban nickel, copper, manganese, chrome and cobalt, tobacco, beans, and cowhides. [15, p. 74]. Asian Communist Countries Communist Chinese trade with I... of the possibility of Communist China? Japanese trading expansion, based on an analysis of i) the past trade between these two countries, if) Communist Chinese export capacity, iii ) Japanese major import demands. Findings and conclusions are stated on the end...

  13. Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct world trade network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ermann, Leonardo

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Using the United Nations COMTRADE database \\cite{comtrade} we construct the Google matrix $G$ of multiproduct world trade between the UN countries and analyze the properties of trade flows on this network for years 1962 - 2010. This construction, based on Markov chains, treats all countries on equal democratic grounds independently of their richness and at the same time it considers the contributions of trade products proportionally to their trade volume. We consider the trade with 61 products for up to 227 countries. The obtained results show that the trade contribution of products is asymmetric: some of them are export oriented while others are import oriented even if the ranking by their trade volume is symmetric in respect to export and import after averaging over all world countries. The construction of the Google matrix allows to investigate the sensitivity of trade balance in respect to price variations of products, e.g. petroleum and gas, taking into account the world connectivity of trade links. The ...

  14. Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    View a list of all current Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training (TAACCCT) grant program awards containing Energy andor Manufacturing topics. This...

  15. DOE and Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry Sign...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Statement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry on Memorandum of Cooperation and Implementing Arrangement MOC focuses on...

  16. Optimization Online - Facing an Arbitrage Opportunity: Trade or Wait?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robert Jarrow

    2014-12-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Dec 9, 2014 ... Abstract: In traditional thinking, an arbitrageur will trade immediately once an arbitrage opportunity appears. Is this the best strategy for the ...

  17. President Louisiana State Building and Construction Trades Council

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Robert "Tiger" Hammond President Louisiana State Building and Construction Trades Council Panel Discussion: "Workforce Issues as a Vulnerability to Energy Development" U.S....

  18. adaptive trading agent: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stock returns and Charles M. C. Lee; Bhaskaran Swaminathan 277 The Value of Emissions Trading MIT - DSpace Summary: This paper estimates the value of international emissions...

  19. association trade mission: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stock returns and Charles M. C. Lee; Bhaskaran Swaminathan 93 The Value of Emissions Trading MIT - DSpace Summary: This paper estimates the value of international emissions...

  20. ascent propulsion trades: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stock returns and Charles M. C. Lee; Bhaskaran Swaminathan 129 The Value of Emissions Trading MIT - DSpace Summary: This paper estimates the value of international emissions...

  1. The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council and Los...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LANL sign labor agreements September 21, 2012 Unions, LANL sign labor agreements The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council and Los Alamos National Security LLC, have...

  2. Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Residential Workforce Business Partners Peer Exchange Call Series: Engaging Efficiency First Chapters and Other Trade Associations in Energy Efficiency Programs, Call Slides and...

  3. Utility Energy Efficiency Schemes: Savings Obligations and Trading...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Schemes: Savings Obligations and Trading **Subscription Required** Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Utility Energy Efficiency Schemes: Savings Obligations...

  4. The feasibility of effluent trading in the energy industries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veil, J.A.

    1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In January 1996, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a policy statement endorsing effluent trading in watersheds, hoping to spur additional interest in the subject. The policy describes five types of effluent trades - point source/point source, point source/nonpoint source, pretreatment, intraplant, and nonpoint source/nonpoint source. This report evaluates the feasibility of effluent trading for facilities in the oil and gas industry (exploration and production, refining, and distribution and marketing segments), electric power industry, and the coal industry (mines and preparation plants). Nonpoint source/nonpoint source trades are not considered since the energy industry facilities evaluated here are all point sources. EPA has administered emission trading programs in its air quality program for many years. Programs for offsets, bubbles, banking, and netting are supported by federal regulations, and the 1990 Clean Air Act (CAA) amendments provide a statutory basis for trading programs to control ozone and acid rain. Different programs have had varying degrees of success, but few have come close to meeting their expectations. Few trading programs have been established under the Clean Water Act (CWA). One intraplant trading program was established by EPA in its effluent limitation guidelines (ELGs) for the iron and steel industry. The other existing effluent trading programs were established by state or local governments and have had minimal success.

  5. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Construction Industry Institute (CII) formed a research team to develop a new tool that can forecast the potential risk of not meeting specific project outcomes based on assessing leading indicators. Thus, the leading indicators were identified and then the new...

  6. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  7. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  8. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

  9. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  10. 1994 battery shipment review and five-year forecast report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a 1994 battery shipment review and five year forecast report. Data is presented on replacement battery shipments, battery shipments, car and truck production, truck sales, original equipment, shipments for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and ten year battery service life trend.

  11. The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gammie, Charles F.

    The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Mo´scibrodzka1 , H. Shiokawa2 , C. F. Gammie2,3 , J*. The > 3M cloud will #12;­ 2 ­ interact strongly with gas near nominal pericenter at rp 300AU 8000GM/c2 transient phase while the flow circularizes-- accompanied by transient emission--it is natural to think

  12. GenForecast(26yr)(avg).PDF

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SLCAIP Historical & Forecast Generation at Plant Total Range of Hydrology 0 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1...

  13. WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1 , Henrik Madsen1 , Torben Skov Nielsen1. In this paper we address the problems of (i) transforming the mete- orological ensembles to wind power ensembles the uncertainty which follow from historical (climatological) data. However, quite often the actual wind power

  14. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  15. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  16. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  17. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    the chance of winds high enough to pose dangers for boats or aircraft. In situations calling for a cost/loss analysis, the probabilities of different outcomes need to be known. For wind speed, this issue often arisesProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

  18. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  19. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  20. Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales Alec N. Kercheval describe how the histori- cal data can first be GARCH filtered and then used to calibrate parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.2 Data and Stylized Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.3 GARCH Filter

  1. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  2. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  3. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  4. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  5. Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gratton, Claudio

    Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

  6. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along...

  7. Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cuesta, Juan Antonio

    Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet Abstract The load curve, which gives of electricity customer uses. This load curve is only available for customers with automated meter reading. For the others, EDF must estimate this curve. Usually a clustering of the load curves is performed, followed

  8. What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

  9. CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director-year increase in the debt ceiling -- both of which proceeded without the usual drama. Second, the private sector, corporate coffers are flush with cash, and low US energy prices have dramatically improved the global

  10. Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

  11. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prasanna, Viktor K.

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan, prasanna}@usc.edu I. INTRODUCTION Smart Power Grids exemplify an emerging class of Cyber Physical-on paradigm to support operational needs. Smart Grids are an outcome of instrumentation, such as Phasor

  12. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page Manager FOSSIL FUELS OFFICE Mike Smith Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION Melissa, Weights and Measurements/Gary Castro, Allan Morrison, John Mough, Ed Williams Clean Energy FuelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009 INTEGRATED

  13. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    bid is computed by exploiting the forecast energy price for the day ahead market, the historical wind renewable energy resources, such as wind and photovoltaic, has grown rapidly. It is well known the problem of optimizing energy bids for an independent Wind Power Producer (WPP) taking part

  14. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  15. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  16. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

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    energy-using devices in the average U.S. household that used over 4,700 kWh of electricity, natural gas-using devices to energy price, household income, and the cost of these devices. This analysis findsTHE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc

  17. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

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    Washington at Seattle, University of

    February 24, 2006 1J. McLean Sloughter is Graduate Research Assistant, Adrian E. Raftery is BlumsteinProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. McLean Sloughter, Adrian E. Raftery and Tilmann Gneiting 1 Department of Statistics, University of Washington

  18. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

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    Raftery, Adrian

    : J. McLean Sloughter, Department of Mathematics, Seattle University, 901 12th Ave., P.O. Box 222000Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER Seattle University, Seattle, Washington TILMANN GNEITING Heidelberg University, Heidelberg

  19. air pollution forecast: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution forecast First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM...

  20. Cross Border Trading and Borrowing in the EU ETS A. Denny Ellerman* and Raphael Trotignon**

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multi- national trading system, the European Union's CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) provides** This paper exploits a little used data resource within the central registry of the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to analyze cross border trading and inter-year borrowing during the first trading