National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for total propagated uncertainty

  1. Combining Total Monte Carlo and Benchmarks for nuclear data uncertainty propagation on an LFRs safety parameters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alhassan, Erwin; Duan, Junfeng; Gustavsson, Cecilia; Koning, Arjan; Pomp, Stephan; Rochman, Dimitri; Österlund, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Analyses are carried out to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on keff for the European Lead Cooled Training Reactor (ELECTRA) using the Total Monte Carlo method. A large number of Pu-239 random ENDF-formated libraries generated using the TALYS based system were processed into ACE format with NJOY99.336 code and used as input into the Serpent Monte Carlo neutron transport code to obtain distribution in keff. The keff distribution obtained was compared with the latest major nuclear data libraries - JEFF-3.1.2, ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL-4.0. A method is proposed for the selection of benchmarks for specific applications using the Total Monte Carlo approach. Finally, an accept/reject criterion was investigated based on chi square values obtained using the Pu-239 Jezebel criticality benchmark. It was observed that nuclear data uncertainties in keff were reduced considerably from 748 to 443 pcm by applying a more rigid acceptance criteria for accepting random files.

  2. Combining Total Monte Carlo and Benchmarks for nuclear data uncertainty propagation on an LFRs safety parameters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Erwin Alhassan; Henrik Sjöstrand; Junfeng Duan; Cecilia Gustavsson; Arjan Koning; Stephan Pomp; Dimitri Rochman; Michael Österlund

    2013-04-04

    Analyses are carried out to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on keff for the European Lead Cooled Training Reactor (ELECTRA) using the Total Monte Carlo method. A large number of Pu-239 random ENDF-formated libraries generated using the TALYS based system were processed into ACE format with NJOY99.336 code and used as input into the Serpent Monte Carlo neutron transport code to obtain distribution in keff. The keff distribution obtained was compared with the latest major nuclear data libraries - JEFF-3.1.2, ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL-4.0. A method is proposed for the selection of benchmarks for specific applications using the Total Monte Carlo approach. Finally, an accept/reject criterion was investigated based on chi square values obtained using the Pu-239 Jezebel criticality benchmark. It was observed that nuclear data uncertainties in keff were reduced considerably from 748 to 443 pcm by applying a more rigid acceptance criteria for accepting random files.

  3. The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)

  4. TOTAL MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN HOLDUP MEASUREMENTS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KEELE, B.D.

    2007-07-05

    An approach to determine the total measurement uncertainty (TMU) associated with Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH) [1,2,3] measurements was developed and implemented in 2004 and 2005 [4]. This paper describes a condensed version of the TMU calculational model, including recent developments. Recent modifications to the TMU calculation model include a change in the attenuation uncertainty, clarifying the definition of the forward background uncertainty, reducing conservatism in the random uncertainty by selecting either a propagation of counting statistics or the standard deviation of the mean, and considering uncertainty in the width and height as a part of the self attenuation uncertainty. In addition, a detection limit is calculated for point sources using equations derived from summary equations contained in Chapter 20 of MARLAP [5]. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 2007-1 to the Secretary of Energy identified a lack of requirements and a lack of standardization for performing measurements across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex. The DNFSB also recommended that guidance be developed for a consistent application of uncertainty values. As such, the recent modifications to the TMU calculational model described in this paper have not yet been implemented. The Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) is continuing to perform uncertainty calculations as per Reference 4. Publication at this time is so that these concepts can be considered in developing a consensus methodology across the complex.

  5. Total Measurement Uncertainty for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Segmented Gamma Scan Assay System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    WESTSIK, G.A.

    2001-06-06

    This report presents the results of an evaluation of the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for the Canberra manufactured Segmented Gamma Scanner Assay System (SGSAS) as employed at the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). In this document, TMU embodies the combined uncertainties due to all of the individual random and systematic sources of measurement uncertainty. It includes uncertainties arising from corrections and factors applied to the analysis of transuranic waste to compensate for inhomogeneities and interferences from the waste matrix and radioactive components. These include uncertainty components for any assumptions contained in the calibration of the system or computation of the data. Uncertainties are propagated at 1 sigma. The final total measurement uncertainty value is reported at the 95% confidence level. The SGSAS is a gamma assay system that is used to assay plutonium and uranium waste. The SGSAS system can be used in a stand-alone mode to perform the NDA characterization of a container, particularly for low to medium density (0-2.5 g/cc) container matrices. The SGSAS system provides a full gamma characterization of the container content. This document is an edited version of the Rocky Flats TMU Report for the Can Scan Segment Gamma Scanners, which are in use for the plutonium residues projects at the Rocky Flats plant. The can scan segmented gamma scanners at Rocky Flats are the same design as the PFP SGSAS system and use the same software (with the exception of the plutonium isotopics software). Therefore, all performance characteristics are expected to be similar. Modifications in this document reflect minor differences in the system configuration, container packaging, calibration technique, etc. These results are supported by the Quality Assurance Objective (QAO) counts, safeguards test data, calibration data, etc. for the PFP SGSAS system. Other parts of the TMU analysis utilize various modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) and In Situ Object Counting Software (ISOCS).

  6. Propagation of uncertainties in the nuclear DFT models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Markus Kortelainen

    2014-09-04

    Parameters of the nuclear density functional theory (DFT) models are usually adjusted to experimental data. As a result they carry certain theoretical error, which, as a consequence, carries out to the predicted quantities. In this work we address the propagation of theoretical error, within the nuclear DFT models, from the model parameters to the predicted observables. In particularly, the focus is set on the Skyrme energy density functional models.

  7. A simplified analysis of uncertainty propagation in inherently controlled ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wade, D.C.

    1987-01-01

    The quasi static approach can be used to provide useful insight concerning the propagation of uncertainties in the inherent response to ATWS events. At issue is how uncertainties in the reactivity coefficients and in the thermal-hydraulics and materials properties propagate to yield uncertainties in the asymptotic temperatures attained upon inherent shutdown. The basic notion to be quantified is that many of the same physical phenomena contribute to both the reactivity increase of power reduction and the reactivity decrease of core temperature rise. Since these reactivities cancel by definition, a good deal of uncertainty cancellation must also occur of necessity. For example, if the Doppler coefficient is overpredicted, too large a positive reactivity insertion is predicted upon power reduction and collapse of the ..delta..T across the fuel pin. However, too large a negative reactivity is also predicted upon the compensating increase in the isothermal core average temperature - which includes the fuel Doppler effect.

  8. Comparison of nuclear data uncertainty propagation methodologies for PWR burn-up simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diez, Carlos Javier; Hoefer, Axel; Porsch, Dieter; Cabellos, Oscar

    2014-01-01

    Several methodologies using different levels of approximations have been developed for propagating nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear burn-up simulations. Most methods fall into the two broad classes of Monte Carlo approaches, which are exact apart from statistical uncertainties but require additional computation time, and first order perturbation theory approaches, which are efficient for not too large numbers of considered response functions but only applicable for sufficiently small nuclear data uncertainties. Some methods neglect isotopic composition uncertainties induced by the depletion steps of the simulations, others neglect neutron flux uncertainties, and the accuracy of a given approximation is often very hard to quantify. In order to get a better sense of the impact of different approximations, this work aims to compare results obtained based on different approximate methodologies with an exact method, namely the NUDUNA Monte Carlo based approach developed by AREVA GmbH. In addition, the impact ...

  9. Propagating Uncertainty in Solar Panel Performance for Life Cycle Modeling in Early Stage Design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Maria

    Propagating Uncertainty in Solar Panel Performance for Life Cycle Modeling in Early Stage Design. This work is conducted in the context of an amorphous photovoltaic (PV) panel, using data gathered from the National Solar Radiation Database, as well as realistic data collected from an experimental hardware setup

  10. Comparison of nuclear data uncertainty propagation methodologies for PWR burn-up simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlos Javier Diez; Oliver Buss; Axel Hoefer; Dieter Porsch; Oscar Cabellos

    2014-11-04

    Several methodologies using different levels of approximations have been developed for propagating nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear burn-up simulations. Most methods fall into the two broad classes of Monte Carlo approaches, which are exact apart from statistical uncertainties but require additional computation time, and first order perturbation theory approaches, which are efficient for not too large numbers of considered response functions but only applicable for sufficiently small nuclear data uncertainties. Some methods neglect isotopic composition uncertainties induced by the depletion steps of the simulations, others neglect neutron flux uncertainties, and the accuracy of a given approximation is often very hard to quantify. In order to get a better sense of the impact of different approximations, this work aims to compare results obtained based on different approximate methodologies with an exact method, namely the NUDUNA Monte Carlo based approach developed by AREVA GmbH. In addition, the impact of different covariance data is studied by comparing two of the presently most complete nuclear data covariance libraries (ENDF/B-VII.1 and SCALE 6.0), which reveals a high dependency of the uncertainty estimates on the source of covariance data. The burn-up benchmark Exercise I-1b proposed by the OECD expert group "Benchmarks for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) for the Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" is studied as an example application. The burn-up simulations are performed with the SCALE 6.0 tool suite.

  11. User's guide for ALEX: uncertainty propagation from raw data to final results for ORELA transmission measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larson, N.M.

    1984-02-01

    This report describes a computer code (ALEX) developed to assist in AnaLysis of EXperimental data at the Oak Ridge Electron Linear Accelerator (ORELA). Reduction of data from raw numbers (counts per channel) to physically meaningful quantities (such as cross sections) is in itself a complicated procedure; propagation of experimental uncertainties through that reduction procedure has in the past been viewed as even more difficult - if not impossible. The purpose of the code ALEX is to correctly propagate all experimental uncertainties through the entire reduction procedure, yielding the complete covariance matrix for the reduced data, while requiring little additional input from the eperimentalist beyond that which is required for the data reduction itself. This report describes ALEX in detail, with special attention given to the case of transmission measurements (the code itself is applicable, with few changes, to any type of data). Application to the natural iron measurements of D.C. Larson et al. is described in some detail.

  12. Uncertainties propagation in the framework of a Rod Ejection Accident modeling based on a multi-physics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Pallec, J. C.; Crouzet, N.; Bergeaud, V.; Delavaud, C. [CEA/DEN/DM2S, CEA/Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France)

    2012-07-01

    The control of uncertainties in the field of reactor physics and their propagation in best-estimate modeling are a major issue in safety analysis. In this framework, the CEA develops a methodology to perform multi-physics simulations including uncertainties analysis. The present paper aims to present and apply this methodology for the analysis of an accidental situation such as REA (Rod Ejection Accident). This accident is characterized by a strong interaction between the different areas of the reactor physics (neutronic, fuel thermal and thermal hydraulic). The modeling is performed with CRONOS2 code. The uncertainties analysis has been conducted with the URANIE platform developed by the CEA: For each identified response from the modeling (output) and considering a set of key parameters with their uncertainties (input), a surrogate model in the form of a neural network has been produced. The set of neural networks is then used to carry out a sensitivity analysis which consists on a global variance analysis with the determination of the Sobol indices for all responses. The sensitivity indices are obtained for the input parameters by an approach based on the use of polynomial chaos. The present exercise helped to develop a methodological flow scheme, to consolidate the use of URANIE tool in the framework of parallel calculations. Finally, the use of polynomial chaos allowed computing high order sensitivity indices and thus highlighting and classifying the influence of identified uncertainties on each response of the analysis (single and interaction effects). (authors)

  13. An algorithm for U-Pb isotope dilution data reduction and uncertainty propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McLean, Noah M.; Bowring, J.F.; Bowring, S.A.

    2011-06-01

    High-precision U-Pb geochronology by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry is integral to a variety of Earth science disciplines, but its ultimate resolving power is quantified by the uncertainties of calculated U-Pb dates...

  14. Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

  15. Error propagation equations for estimating the uncertainty in high-speed wind tunnel test results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-07-01

    Error propagation equations, based on the Taylor series model, are derived for the nondimensional ratios and coefficients most often encountered in high-speed wind tunnel testing. These include pressure ratio and coefficient, static force and moment coefficients, dynamic stability coefficients, and calibration Mach number. The error equations contain partial derivatives, denoted as sensitivity coefficients, which define the influence of free-steam Mach number, M{infinity}, on various aerodynamic ratios. To facilitate use of the error equations, sensitivity coefficients are derived and evaluated for five fundamental aerodynamic ratios which relate free-steam test conditions to a reference condition.

  16. A multilevel adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation approach to the non-smooth forward propagation of uncertainty in discretized problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gates, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    This work proposes a scheme for significantly reducing the computational complexity of discretized problems involving the non-smooth forward propagation of uncertainty by combining the adaptive hierarchical sparse grid stochastic collocation method (ALSGC) with a hierarchy of successively finer spatial discretizations (e.g. finite elements) of the underlying deterministic problem. To achieve this, we build strongly upon ideas from the Multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC), which represents a well-established technique for the reduction of computational complexity in problems affected by both deterministic and stochastic error contributions. The resulting approach is termed the Multilevel Adaptive Sparse Grid Collocation (MLASGC) method. Preliminary results for a low-dimensional, non-smooth parametric ODE problem are promising: the proposed MLASGC method exhibits an error/cost-relation of $\\varepsilon \\sim t^{-0.95}$ and therefore significantly outperforms the single-level ALSGC ($\\varepsilon \\sim t^{-0.65}$) a...

  17. How to Make an Atomic Blog in Your Own Kitchen. Summary of the Workshop: Uncertainties in Atomic Data and How They Propagate in Chemical Abundances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luridiana, Valentina; Aggarwal, Kanti; Bautista, Manuel; Bergemann, Maria; Delahaye, Franck; del Zanna, Giulio; Ferland, Gary; Lind, Karin; Manchado, Arturo; Mendoza, Claudio; Delgado, Adal Mesa; Díaz, Manuel Núńez; Shaw, Richard A; Wesson, Roger

    2011-01-01

    This workshop brought together scientists (including atomic physicists, theoretical astrophysicists and astronomers) concerned with the completeness and accuracy of atomic data for astrophysical applications. The topics covered in the workshop included the evaluation of uncertainties in atomic data, the propagation of such uncertainties in chemical abundances, and the feedback between observations and calculations. On a different level, we also discussed communication issues such as how to ensure that atomic data are correctly understood and used, and which forum is the best one for a fluid interaction between all communities involved in the production and use of atomic data. This paper reports on the discussions held during the workshop and introduces AstroAtom, a blog created as a platform for timely and open discussions on the needs and concerns over atomic data, and their effects on astronomical research. The complete proceedings will be published on http://astroatom.wordpress.com/.

  18. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rate-expression parameters. It is important, both for model validation and design optimization purposes, that these uncertainties be adequately quantified and propagated to...

  19. Error propagation equations and tables for estimating the uncertainty in high-speed wind tunnel test results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1993-08-01

    Error propagation equations, based on the Taylor series model, are derived for the nondimensional ratios and coefficients most often encountered in high-speed wind tunnel testing. These include pressure ratio and coefficient, static force and moment coefficients, dynamic stability coefficients, calibration Mach number and Reynolds number. The error equations contain partial derivatives, denoted as sensitivity coefficients, which define the influence of free-stream Mach number, M{infinity}, on various aerodynamic ratios. To facilitate use of the error equations, sensitivity coefficients are derived and evaluated for nine fundamental aerodynamic ratios, most of which relate free-stream test conditions (pressure, temperature, density or velocity) to a reference condition. Tables of the ratios, R, absolute sensitivity coefficients, {partial_derivative}R/{partial_derivative}M{infinity}, and relative sensitivity coefficients, (M{infinity}/R) ({partial_derivative}R/{partial_derivative}M{infinity}), are provided as functions of M{infinity}.

  20. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  1. SimHydro 2012:Hydraulic modeling and uncertainty, 12-14 September 2012, Sophia Antipolis -Barthlmy et al.-Data assimilation on a flood wave propagation model : emulation of a Kalman filter algorithm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    SimHydro 2012:Hydraulic modeling and uncertainty, 12-14 September 2012, Sophia Antipolis already been demonstrated that the limitations of the hydraulic models can be overcome using a data hydraulic model, representing the 1D diffusive flood wave propagation equations. 1 Corresponding author #12

  2. The principal component analysis method used with polynomial Chaos expansion to propagate uncertainties through critical transport problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rising, M. E.; Prinja, A. K.

    2012-07-01

    A critical neutron transport problem with random material properties is introduced. The total cross section and the average neutron multiplicity are assumed to be uncertain, characterized by the mean and variance with a log-normal distribution. The average neutron multiplicity and the total cross section are assumed to be uncorrected and the material properties for differing materials are also assumed to be uncorrected. The principal component analysis method is used to decompose the covariance matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors and then 'realizations' of the material properties can be computed. A simple Monte Carlo brute force sampling of the decomposed covariance matrix is employed to obtain a benchmark result for each test problem. In order to save computational time and to characterize the moments and probability density function of the multiplication factor the polynomial chaos expansion method is employed along with the stochastic collocation method. A Gauss-Hermite quadrature set is convolved into a multidimensional tensor product quadrature set and is successfully used to compute the polynomial chaos expansion coefficients of the multiplication factor. Finally, for a particular critical fuel pin assembly the appropriate number of random variables and polynomial expansion order are investigated. (authors)

  3. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  4. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  5. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS; 97 MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE...

  6. Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Draper

    2011-01-01

    1982). Outlook for World Oil Prices. Washington DC: U. S.Case N-2524-RC, of Oil Prices. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.run. But, in view of the oil price example, which is worse—

  7. Efficient uncertainty propagation for network multiphysics systems...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Research Org: Sandia National Laboratories Sponsoring Org: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Country of Publication: United States Language: English...

  8. Efficient uncertainty propagation for network multiphysics systems.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfate Reducing(Journal Article) | SciTech(Journal Article) | SciTech(Journal Article) | SciTech

  9. BEAM PROPAGATOR

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    003691MLTPL00 Beam Propagator for Weather Radars, Modules 1 and 2  http://www.exelisvis.com/ProductsServices/IDL.aspx 

  10. Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

  11. Covariance propagation in spectral indices

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Griffin, P. J.

    2015-01-09

    The dosimetry community has a history of using spectral indices to support neutron spectrum characterization and cross section validation efforts. An important aspect to this type of analysis is the proper consideration of the contribution of the spectrum uncertainty to the total uncertainty in calculated spectral indices (SIs). This study identifies deficiencies in the traditional treatment of the SI uncertainty, provides simple bounds to the spectral component in the SI uncertainty estimates, verifies that these estimates are reflected in actual applications, details a methodology that rigorously captures the spectral contribution to the uncertainty in the SI, and provides quantified examplesmore »that demonstrate the importance of the proper treatment the spectral contribution to the uncertainty in the SI.« less

  12. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty Analysis Home Stationary Power Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Energy Safety Technologies Risk and Safety Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty AnalysisTara...

  13. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, C B

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results.

  14. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  15. Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL] [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL] [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification is useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select an additional administrative margin to account for gap in the validation data or to conclude that the impact on the calculated bias and bias uncertainty is negligible. As a result of advances in computer programs and the evolution of cross-section covariance data, analysts can use the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools in the TSUNAMI codes to estimate the potential impact on the application-specific bias and bias uncertainty resulting from nuclides not represented in available benchmark experiments. This paper presents the application of methods described in a companion paper.

  16. Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zettlemoyer, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

  17. Monte Carlo Solution for Uncertainty Propagation in Particle...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Math. and Comp. Methods Applied to Nucl. Sci. and Engg. (M&C 2013) held May 5-9, 2013 in Sun Valley, ID.; Related Information: Proposed for presentation at the International...

  18. Monte Carlo Solution for Uncertainty Propagation in Particle Transport with

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfate Reducing(JournalspectroscopyReport)Fermentativea Stochastic Galerkin Method. (Conference) |

  19. Monte Carlo Solution for Uncertainty Propagation in Particle Transport with

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfate Reducing(JournalspectroscopyReport)Fermentativea Stochastic Galerkin Method. (Conference) |a

  20. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory of rare Kaon and(Conference) |Article)(Technical Report)

  1. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory of rare Kaon and(Conference) |Article)(Technical Report)Theory (Conference) |

  2. Uncertainty Quantification of Composite Laminate Damage with the Generalized Information Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Lucero; F. Hemez; T. Ross; K.Kline; J.Hundhausen; T. Tippetts

    2006-05-01

    This work presents a survey of five theories to assess the uncertainty of projectile impact induced damage on multi-layered carbon-epoxy composite plates. Because the types of uncertainty dealt with in this application are multiple (variability, ambiguity, and conflict) and because the data sets collected are sparse, characterizing the amount of delamination damage with probability theory alone is possible but incomplete. This motivates the exploration of methods contained within a broad Generalized Information Theory (GIT) that rely on less restrictive assumptions than probability theory. Probability, fuzzy sets, possibility, and imprecise probability (probability boxes (p-boxes) and Dempster-Shafer) are used to assess the uncertainty in composite plate damage. Furthermore, this work highlights the usefulness of each theory. The purpose of the study is not to compare directly the different GIT methods but to show that they can be deployed on a practical application and to compare the assumptions upon which these theories are based. The data sets consist of experimental measurements and finite element predictions of the amount of delamination and fiber splitting damage as multilayered composite plates are impacted by a projectile at various velocities. The physical experiments consist of using a gas gun to impact suspended plates with a projectile accelerated to prescribed velocities, then, taking ultrasound images of the resulting delamination. The nonlinear, multiple length-scale numerical simulations couple local crack propagation implemented through cohesive zone modeling to global stress-displacement finite element analysis. The assessment of damage uncertainty is performed in three steps by, first, considering the test data only; then, considering the simulation data only; finally, performing an assessment of total uncertainty where test and simulation data sets are combined. This study leads to practical recommendations for reducing the uncertainty and improving the prediction accuracy of the damage modeling and finite element simulation.

  3. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  4. Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

    2012-03-20

    Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

  5. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  6. Measurement uncertainty of adsorption testing of desiccant materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C E; Pesaran, A A

    1988-12-01

    The technique of measurement uncertainty analysis as described in the current ANSI/ASME standard is applied to the testing of desiccant materials in SERI`s Sorption Test Facility. This paper estimates the elemental precision and systematic errors in these tests and propagates them separately to obtain the resulting uncertainty of the test parameters, including relative humidity ({plus_minus}.03) and sorption capacity ({plus_minus}.002 g/g). Errors generated by instrument calibration, data acquisition, and data reduction are considered. Measurement parameters that would improve the uncertainty of the results are identified. Using the uncertainty in the moisture capacity of a desiccant, the design engineer can estimate the uncertainty in performance of a dehumidifier for desiccant cooling systems with confidence. 6 refs., 2 figs., 8 tabs.

  7. Joint propagation of probability and possibility in risk analysis: Towards a formal framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winckler, Marco Antonio Alba

    Joint propagation of probability and possibility in risk analysis: Towards a formal framework Ce by propagating uncertainty in risk analysis when some input parameters are stochastic and perfectly observable to the output of some function of interest from the risk analysis model can be either represented by a fuzzy

  8. Total Imports

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight Paths30,2,8,Product: Total Crude

  9. 1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kostic, Milivoje M.

    1 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis · Introduction · Bias and Precision Summation/Propagation (Expanded Combined Uncertainty) · Problem 5-30 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5) at corresponding Probability (%P) Remember: u = d%P = t,%PS (@ %P); z=t=d/S #12;2 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Bias

  10. Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating expenses (opex) for the project, 3. The number of wells and associated capex to recover the reserves, 4

  11. Managing Model Data Introduced Uncertainties in Simulator Predictions for Generation IV Systems via Optimum Experimental Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turinsky, Paul J; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S; Stover, Tracy E

    2011-03-31

    An optimization technique has been developed to select optimized experimental design specifications to produce data specifically designed to be assimilated to optimize a given reactor concept. Data from the optimized experiment is assimilated to generate posteriori uncertainties on the reactor concept’s core attributes from which the design responses are computed. The reactor concept is then optimized with the new data to realize cost savings by reducing margin. The optimization problem iterates until an optimal experiment is found to maximize the savings. A new generation of innovative nuclear reactor designs, in particular fast neutron spectrum recycle reactors, are being considered for the application of closing the nuclear fuel cycle in the future. Safe and economical design of these reactors will require uncertainty reduction in basic nuclear data which are input to the reactor design. These data uncertainty propagate to design responses which in turn require the reactor designer to incorporate additional safety margin into the design, which often increases the cost of the reactor. Therefore basic nuclear data needs to be improved and this is accomplished through experimentation. Considering the high cost of nuclear experiments, it is desired to have an optimized experiment which will provide the data needed for uncertainty reduction such that a reactor design concept can meet its target accuracies or to allow savings to be realized by reducing the margin required due to uncertainty propagated from basic nuclear data. However, this optimization is coupled to the reactor design itself because with improved data the reactor concept can be re-optimized itself. It is thus desired to find the experiment that gives the best optimized reactor design. Methods are first established to model both the reactor concept and the experiment and to efficiently propagate the basic nuclear data uncertainty through these models to outputs. The representativity of the experiment to the design concept is quantitatively determined. A technique is then established to assimilate this data and produce posteriori uncertainties on key attributes and responses of the design concept. Several experiment perturbations based on engineering judgment are used to demonstrate these methods and also serve as an initial generation of the optimization problem. Finally, an optimization technique is developed which will simultaneously arrive at an optimized experiment to produce an optimized reactor design. Solution of this problem is made possible by the use of the simulated annealing algorithm for solution of optimization problems. The optimization examined in this work is based on maximizing the reactor cost savings associated with the modified design made possible by using the design margin gained through reduced basic nuclear data uncertainties. Cost values for experiment design specifications and reactor design specifications are established and used to compute a total savings by comparing the posteriori reactor cost to the a priori cost plus the cost of the experiment. The optimized solution arrives at a maximized cost savings.

  12. Propagation of Camptotheca acuminata 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maxwell, Douglas Wayne

    2004-09-30

    commercial production facilities that may lack the capability to propagate the species under sterile conditions. The application of the auxin indole-3-butyric acid potassium salt (K-IBA) has been reported to enhance rooting success in a wide variety... production facility, which lacks the requirements for in vitro propagation. Experiment 2 ? Micropropagation of Camptotheca acuminata Explants were cultured on the various media treatments for 10 weeks until they were harvested and the data recorded...

  13. On Anyonic Propagators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wellington da Cruz

    2000-06-02

    We consider a simple action for a fractional spin particle and a path integral representation for the propagator is obtained in a gauge such that the constraint embodied in the Lagrangian is not an obstacle. We obtain a propagator for the particle in a constant electromagnetic field via the path integral representation over velocities, which is characterized by arbitrary boundary conditions and the absence of time derivatives following integration over bosonic variables.

  14. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  15. Some methods of estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Milan Batista

    2011-07-20

    In the paper four methods for estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction are discussed: total differential method, extreme values method, Gauss statistical method, and Monte Carlo simulation method. The methods are described and the program solutions are given.

  16. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tovesson, F.

    2015-01-09

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  17. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tovesson, F. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  18. Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Owhadi, Houman; Sullivan, Timothy John; McKerns, Mike; Ortiz, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \\emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \\emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contr...

  19. Uncertainty and calibration analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-03-01

    All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

  20. Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lodwick, Weldon

    11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

  1. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  2. Modeling Heterogeneity in Networks using Uncertainty Quantification Tools

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rajendran, Karthikeyan; Siettos, Constantinos I; Laing, Carlo R; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

    2015-01-01

    Using the dynamics of information propagation on a network as our illustrative example, we present and discuss a systematic approach to quantifying heterogeneity and its propagation that borrows established tools from Uncertainty Quantification. The crucial assumption underlying this mathematical and computational "technology transfer" is that the evolving states of the nodes in a network quickly become correlated with the corresponding node "identities": features of the nodes imparted by the network structure (e.g. the node degree, the node clustering coefficient). The node dynamics thus depend on heterogeneous (rather than uncertain) parameters, whose distribution over the network results from the network structure. Knowing these distributions allows us to obtain an efficient coarse-grained representation of the network state in terms of the expansion coefficients in suitable orthogonal polynomials. This representation is closely related to mathematical/computational tools for uncertainty quantification (th...

  3. Essays on pricing under uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

    2008-10-10

    This dissertation analyzes pricing under uncertainty focusing on the U.S. airline industry. It sets to test theories of price dispersion driven by uncertainty in the demand by taking advantage of very detailed information about the dynamics...

  4. Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to include uncertainty that lies in modeling process and that arises from input values when predicting system performance, and to incorporate uncertainty related to system controls in a computationally...

  5. ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SRS COMPOSITE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.; Phifer, M.

    2011-06-30

    The Composite Analysis (CA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) in 2009 (SRS CA 2009) included a simplified uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis in the CA (Smith et al. 2009b) was limited to considering at most five sources in a separate uncertainty calculation performed for each POA. To perform the uncertainty calculations in a reasonable amount of time, the analysis was limited to using 400 realizations, 2,000 years of simulated transport time, and the time steps used for the uncertainty analysis were increased from what was used in the CA base case analysis. As part of the CA maintenance plan, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) committed to improving the CA uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. The previous uncertainty analysis was constrained by the standard GoldSim licensing which limits the user to running at most four Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations (also called realizations) simultaneously. Some of the limitations on the number of realizations that could be practically run and the simulation time steps were removed by building a cluster of three HP Proliant windows servers with a total of 36 64-bit processors and by licensing the GoldSim DP-Plus distributed processing software. This allowed running as many as 35 realizations simultaneously (one processor is reserved as a master process that controls running the realizations). These enhancements to SRNL computing capabilities made uncertainty analysis: using 1000 realizations, using the time steps employed in the base case CA calculations, with more sources, and simulating radionuclide transport for 10,000 years feasible. In addition, an importance screening analysis was performed to identify the class of stochastic variables that have the most significant impact on model uncertainty. This analysis ran the uncertainty model separately testing the response to variations in the following five sets of model parameters: (a) K{sub d} values (72 parameters for the 36 CA elements in sand and clay), (b) Dose Parameters (34 parameters), (c) Material Properties (20 parameters), (d) Surface Water Flows (6 parameters), and (e) Vadose and Aquifer Flow (4 parameters). Results provided an assessment of which group of parameters is most significant in the dose uncertainty. It was found that K{sub d} and the vadose/aquifer flow parameters, both of which impact transport timing, had the greatest impact on dose uncertainty. Dose parameters had an intermediate level of impact while material properties and surface water flows had little impact on dose uncertainty. Results of the importance analysis are discussed further in Section 7 of this report. The objectives of this work were to address comments received during the CA review on the uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate an improved methodology for CA uncertainty calculations as part of CA maintenance. This report partially addresses the LFRG Review Team issue of producing an enhanced CA sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This is described in Table 1-1 which provides specific responses to pertinent CA maintenance items extracted from Section 11 of the SRS CA (2009). As noted above, the original uncertainty analysis looked at each POA separately and only included the effects from at most five sources giving the highest peak doses at each POA. Only 17 of the 152 CA sources were used in the original uncertainty analysis and the simulation time was reduced from 10,000 to 2,000 years. A major constraint on the original uncertainty analysis was the limitation of only being able to use at most four distributed processes. This work expanded the analysis to 10,000 years using 39 of the CA sources, included cumulative dose effects at downstream POAs, with more realizations (1,000) and finer time steps. This was accomplished by using the GoldSim DP-Plus module and the 36 processors available on a new windows cluster. The last part of the work looked at the contribution to overall uncertainty from the main categories of uncertainty variables: K{sub d}s, dose parameters, flow parameters, and material propertie

  6. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    First, it recovers historical oil price uncertainty seriesmore reliable historical oil price uncertainty series as itAs a result, the historical oil price uncertainty series is

  7. Positron Propagation and Fluxes from Neutralino Annihilation in the Halo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edward A. Baltz; Joakim Edsjo

    1998-08-21

    Supersymmetric neutralinos are one of the most promising candidates for the dark matter in the Universe. If they exist, they should make up some fraction of the Milky Way halo. We investigate the fluxes of positrons expected at the Earth from neutralino annihilation in the halo. Positron propagation is treated in a diffusion model including energy loss. The positron source function includes contributions from both continuum and monochromatic positrons. We find that, for a "canonical" halo model and propagation parameters, the fluxes are generally too low to be visible. Given the large uncertainties in both propagation and halo structure, it is however possible to obtain observable fluxes. We also investigate the shapes of the positron spectra, including fits to a feature indicated by the results of the HEAT experiment.

  8. A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, J. D.; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

    2006-10-01

    Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

  9. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis Home

  10. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis

  11. Transport of exotic anti-nuclei: II- Antiproton and Antideuteron astrophysical uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D. Maurin; R. Taillet; C. Combet

    2009-01-21

    We use a 1D propagation model to study the dependence of the pbar and dbar exotic fluxes on the transport parameters. The simple analytical solutions allow us i) to clarify the origin of the astrophysical uncertainties, and ii) to compare two models used for {\\em signal} predictions, namely the constant and the linear Galactic wind models. We also study how these uncertainties should be reduced using forthcoming nuclear cosmic ray data. We confirm that the degeneracy of the transport parameters for a given propagation model leads to very different fluxes for primary antinuclei (~10^2). However, we show that with forthcoming data, these uncertainties could be greatly reduced (~2). As the precision will increase, the astrophysical uncertainty could then be dominated by our ignorance of the correct spatial dependence for some of the transport parameters: for instance, the constant and the linear wind models do not predict the same amount of exotic pbar at low energy.

  12. Entropic uncertainty relation for power-law wave packets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sumiyoshi Abe; S. Martinez; F. Pennini; A. Plastino

    2002-06-06

    For the power-law quantum wave packet in configuration space, the variance of the position observable may be divergent. Accordingly, the information-entropic formulation of the uncertainty principle becomes more appropriate than the Heisenberg-type formulation, since it involves only the finite quantities. It is found that the total amount of entropic uncertainty converges to its lower bound in the limit of a large value of the exponent.

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  14. Image Compression by Back Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cottrell, Garrison W.

    CHAPTER 9 Image Compression by Back Propagation: An Example of Extensional Programming* GARRISON W the case with the computatiolls associated with basic cognitive pro- cesses such as vision and audition techniques. The technique we employ is known as back propagation. developed by l1umelhart, Hinton

  15. How do Uncertainties in the Surface Chemical Abundances of the Sun Affect the Predicted Solar Neutrino Fluxes?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    John N. Bahcall; Aldo M. Serenelli

    2005-03-11

    We show that uncertainties in the values of the surface heavy element abundances of the Sun are the largest source of the theoretical uncertainty in calculating the p-p, pep, 8B, 13N, 15O, and 17F solar neutrino fluxes. We evaluate for the first time the sensitivity (partial derivative) of each solar neutrino flux with respect to the surface abundance of each element. We then calculate the uncertainties in each neutrino flux using `conservative (preferred)' and `optimistic' estimates for the uncertainties in the element abundances. The total conservative (optimistic) composition uncertainty in the predicted 8B neutrino flux is 11.6% (5.0%) when sensitivities to individual element abundances are used. The traditional method that lumps all abundances into a single quantity (total heavy element to hydrogen ratio, Z/X) yields a larger uncertainty, 20%. The uncertainties in the carbon, oxygen, neon, silicon, sulphur, and iron abundances all make significant contributions to the uncertainties in calculating solar neutrino fluxes; the uncertainties of different elements are most important for different neutrino fluxes. The uncertainty in the iron abundance is the largest source of the estimated composition uncertainties of the important 7Be and 8B solar neutrinos. Carbon is the largest contributor to the uncertainty in the calculation of the p-p, 13N, and 15O neutrino fluxes. However, for all neutrino fluxes, several elements contribute comparable amounts to the total composition uncertainty.

  16. ,"Total Natural Gas Consumption

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gas Consumption (billion cubic feet)",,,,,"Natural Gas Energy Intensity (cubic feetsquare foot)" ,"Total ","Space Heating","Water Heating","Cook- ing","Other","Total ","Space...

  17. Mode propagation and attenuation in lined ducts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    BI, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Optimal impedance for each mode is an important concept in an infinitely long duct lined with uniform absorption material. However it is not valid for finite length linings. This is because that the modes in lined ducts are not power-orthogonal; the total sound power is not equal to the sum of the sound power of each mode; cross-power terms may play important roles. In this paper, we study sound propagation and attenuation in an infinite rigid duct lined with a finite length of lining impedance. The lining impedance may be axial segments and circumferentially non-uniform. We propose two new physical quantities Kp and S to describe the self-overlap of the left eigenfunction and right eigenfunction of one mode and the normalized overlap between modes, respectively. The two new physical quantities describe totally the mode behaviors in lined ducts.

  18. Uncertainty Analysis for Broadband Solar Radiometric Instrumentation Calibrations and Measurements: An Update; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myers, D. R.; Reda, I. M.; Wilcox, S. M.; Stoffel, T. L.

    2004-04-01

    The measurement of broadband solar radiation has grown in importance since the advent of solar renewable energy technologies in the 1970's, and the concern about the Earth's radiation balance related to climate change in the 1990's. In parallel, standardized methods of uncertainty analysis and reporting have been developed. Historical and updated uncertainties are based on the current international standardized uncertainty analysis method. Despite the fact that new and sometimes overlooked sources of uncertainty have been identified over the period 1988 to 2004, uncertainty in broadband solar radiometric instrumentation remains at 3% to 5% for pyranometers, and 2% to 3% for pyrheliometers. Improvements in characterizing correction functions for radiometer data may reduce total uncertainty. We analyze the theoretical standardized uncertainty sensitivity coefficients for the instrumentation calibration measurement equation and highlight the single parameter (thermal offset voltages), which contributes the most to the observed calibration responsivities.

  19. Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansen, Tor Arne

    Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav.ntnu.no) Abstract: The information content in measurements of offshore oil and gas production is often low, and when in the context of offshore oil and gas fields, can be considered the total output of production wells, a mass

  20. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  1. Total Cross Sections for Neutron Scattering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. R. Chinn; Ch. Elster; R. M. Thaler; S. P. Weppner

    1994-10-19

    Measurements of neutron total cross-sections are both extensive and extremely accurate. Although they place a strong constraint on theoretically constructed models, there are relatively few comparisons of predictions with experiment. The total cross-sections for neutron scattering from $^{16}$O and $^{40}$Ca are calculated as a function of energy from $50-700$~MeV laboratory energy with a microscopic first order optical potential derived within the framework of the Watson expansion. Although these results are already in qualitative agreement with the data, the inclusion of medium corrections to the propagator is essential to correctly predict the energy dependence given by the experiment.

  2. Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giavazzi, Francesco

    Using German microdata and a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty. We find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political ...

  3. Higher order light propagation volumes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martin, Timothy Ly; Martin, Timothy Ly

    2012-01-01

    1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Light Propagation4.1.1 Injection of Virtual Point Lights and Geometryof the Stanford bunny, lit by an area light, rendered using

  4. Reconstruction of nonlinear wave propagation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fleischer, Jason W; Barsi, Christopher; Wan, Wenjie

    2013-04-23

    Disclosed are systems and methods for characterizing a nonlinear propagation environment by numerically propagating a measured output waveform resulting from a known input waveform. The numerical propagation reconstructs the input waveform, and in the process, the nonlinear environment is characterized. In certain embodiments, knowledge of the characterized nonlinear environment facilitates determination of an unknown input based on a measured output. Similarly, knowledge of the characterized nonlinear environment also facilitates formation of a desired output based on a configurable input. In both situations, the input thus characterized and the output thus obtained include features that would normally be lost in linear propagations. Such features can include evanescent waves and peripheral waves, such that an image thus obtained are inherently wide-angle, farfield form of microscopy.

  5. Sound propagation around underwater seamounts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sikora, Joseph J., III

    2009-01-01

    In the ocean, low frequency acoustic waves propagate with low attenuation and cylindrical spreading loss over long-ranges, making them an effective tool for underwater source localization, tomography, and communications. ...

  6. Chaos: a bridge from microscopic uncertainty to macroscopic randomness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. J. Liao

    2012-01-09

    It is traditionally believed that the macroscopic randomness has nothing to do with the micro-level uncertainty. Besides, the sensitive dependence on initial condition (SDIC) of Lorenz chaos has never been considered together with the so-called continuum-assumption of fluid (on which Lorenz equations are based), from physical and statistic viewpoints. A very fine numerical technique (Liao, 2009) with negligible truncation and round-off errors, called here the "clean numerical simulation" (CNS), is applied to investigate the propagation of the micro-level unavoidable uncertain fluctuation (caused by the continuum-assumption of fluid) of initial conditions for Lorenz equation with chaotic solutions. Our statistic analysis based on CNS computation of 10,000 samples shows that, due to the SDIC, the uncertainty of the micro-level statistic fluctuation of initial conditions transfers into the macroscopic randomness of chaos. This suggests that chaos might be a bridge from micro-level uncertainty to macroscopic randomness, and thus would be an origin of macroscopic randomness. We reveal in this article that, due to the SDIC of chaos and the inherent uncertainty of initial data, accurate long-term prediction of chaotic solution is not only impossible in mathematics but also has no physical meanings. This might provide us a new, different viewpoint to deepen and enrich our understandings about the SDIC of chaos.

  7. Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

    2010-09-01

    Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.

  8. Game Theory for auctions Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dignum, Frank

    widenarrow¬drillThe world is uncertain: 60% chance for oil 40% chance of no oil -29,-2-29,-16-29,0wide -16 in static games #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static 1,116,-131,0wide -1,1614,1444,0narrow 0,310,440,0¬drill,-2-16,-16-16,0narrow 0,-290,-160,0¬drill widenarrow¬drill #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static Combine the two possible

  9. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification...

  10. Semiclassical propagation of Wigner functions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dittrich, T.; Gomez, E. A.; Pachon, L. A.

    2010-06-07

    We present a comprehensive study of semiclassical phase-space propagation in the Wigner representation, emphasizing numerical applications, in particular as an initial-value representation. Two semiclassical approximation schemes are discussed. The propagator of the Wigner function based on van Vleck's approximation replaces the Liouville propagator by a quantum spot with an oscillatory pattern reflecting the interference between pairs of classical trajectories. Employing phase-space path integration instead, caustics in the quantum spot are resolved in terms of Airy functions. We apply both to two benchmark models of nonlinear molecular potentials, the Morse oscillator and the quartic double well, to test them in standard tasks such as computing autocorrelation functions and propagating coherent states. The performance of semiclassical Wigner propagation is very good even in the presence of marked quantum effects, e.g., in coherent tunneling and in propagating Schroedinger cat states, and of classical chaos in four-dimensional phase space. We suggest options for an effective numerical implementation of our method and for integrating it in Monte-Carlo-Metropolis algorithms suitable for high-dimensional systems.

  11. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    historical uncertainty series by incorporating a realized volatility series from daily oil price data

  12. IAEA CRP on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Benchmark Definition and Test Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Frederik Reitsma; Hans Gougar; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

    2012-11-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are essential elements of the reactor simulation code verification and validation process. Although several international uncertainty quantification activities have been launched in recent years in the LWR, BWR and VVER domains (e.g. the OECD/NEA BEMUSE program [1], from which the current OECD/NEA LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) benchmark [2] effort was derived), the systematic propagation of uncertainties in cross-section, manufacturing and model parameters for High Temperature Reactor (HTGR) designs has not been attempted yet. This paper summarises the scope, objectives and exercise definitions of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR UAM [3]. Note that no results will be included here, as the HTGR UAM benchmark was only launched formally in April 2012, and the specification is currently still under development.

  13. Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tawfik, Abdel Nasser

    2015-01-01

    Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.

  14. Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2015-09-22

    Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.

  15. Uncertainties in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Côté, Benoit; O'Shea, Brian W; Herwig, Falk; Pignatari, Marco; Jones, Samuel; Fryer, Chris

    2015-01-01

    We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions, for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of seven basic parameters, which are: the lower and upper mass limit of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per solar mass formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the initial mass of gas of the galaxy. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of ...

  16. Pharmaceutical Waste Management Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linninger, Andreas A.

    Pharmaceutical Waste Management Under Uncertainty Andreas A. Linninger and Aninda Chakraborty of their benefits and costs constitutes a formidable task. Designing plant-wide waste management policies assuming this article addresses the problem of finding optimal waste management policies for entire manufacturing sites

  17. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Revised: December, 2008 Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration Office Equip- ment Com- puters Other All Buildings...

  18. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration Office Equip- ment Com- puters Other All Buildings*...

  19. ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . Fuel Oil Expenditures by Census Region for Non-Mall Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures (million dollars)",,,,"Fuel Oil Expenditures (dollars)" ,,,,,"per...

  20. ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0. Fuel Oil Consumption (gallons) and Energy Intensities by End Use for Non-Mall Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption (million gallons)",,,,,"Fuel Oil Energy Intensity...

  1. ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4. Fuel Oil Expenditures by Census Region, 1999" ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures (million dollars)",,,,"Fuel Oil Expenditures (dollars)" ,,,,,"per Gallon",,,,"per Square Foot"...

  2. ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    A. Fuel Oil Expenditures by Census Region for All Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures (million dollars)",,,,"Fuel Oil Expenditures (dollars)" ,,,,,"per Gallon",,,,"per...

  3. ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    A. Fuel Oil Consumption (gallons) and Energy Intensities by End Use for All Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption (million gallons)",,,,,"Fuel Oil Energy Intensity...

  4. A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankov, Artem; Collins, Benjamin; Klein, Markus; Jessee, Matthew A.; Zwermann, Winfried; Velkov, Kiril; Pautz, Andreas; Downar, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    For the multiple sources of error introduced into the standard computational regime for simulating reactor cores, rigorous uncertainty analysis methods are available primarily to quantify the effects of cross section uncertainties. Two methods for propagating cross section uncertainties through core simulators are the XSUSA statistical approach and the “two-step” method. The XSUSA approach, which is based on the SUSA code package, is fundamentally a stochastic sampling method. Alternatively, the two-step method utilizes generalized perturbation theory in the first step and stochastic sampling in the second step. The consistency of these two methods in quantifying uncertainties in the multiplication factor andmore »in the core power distribution was examined in the framework of phase I-3 of the OECD Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling benchmark. With the Three Mile Island Unit 1 core as a base model for analysis, the XSUSA and two-step methods were applied with certain limitations, and the results were compared to those produced by other stochastic sampling-based codes. Based on the uncertainty analysis results, conclusions were drawn as to the method that is currently more viable for computing uncertainties in burnup and transient calculations.« less

  5. The Propagation of Ornamental Plants. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DeWerth, A. F.

    1970-01-01

    Mist Propagation ............................................................................................................... 28 Mist Systems... equal to twice the size of the seed which will result in the seed being covered at about the depth of the seed. Water the seedbed thoroughly with water applied with a mist nozzle so the seed will not be washed out of the soil. When the seedlings...

  6. Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, J.; McNelis, D. [Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (United States); Yim, M.S. [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

  7. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Post, Wilfred M.

    Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization Contact: Gregg Marland, 865 of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere are essential for understanding global.S. Department of Energy Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization Abstract: The assessment

  8. Uncertainty Propagation in Hypersonic Flight Dynamics and Comparison of Different Methods 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prabhakar, Avinash

    2010-01-16

    solution into the dynamical system results in error we get, ei = _^xi fi(^x; ); i = 1; ;n: The approximation in eqn.(2.3) is optimal in the L2 sense when the projections of the error on the orthogonal basis functions are zero, i.e., hei(t; ); j( )i= Z D...

  9. Quantifying galactic propagation uncertainty in WIMP dark matter search with AMS01 Z=-1 spectrum

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiao, Sa, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2009-01-01

    A search for a WIMP dark matter annihilation signal is carried out in the AMS01 negatively charged (Z=-I) particle spectrum, following a set of supersymmetric benchmark scenarios in the mSUGRA framework. The result is ...

  10. Size exclusion deep bed filtration: Experimental and modelling uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Badalyan, Alexander You, Zhenjiang; Aji, Kaiser; Bedrikovetsky, Pavel; Carageorgos, Themis; Zeinijahromi, Abbas

    2014-01-15

    A detailed uncertainty analysis associated with carboxyl-modified latex particle capture in glass bead-formed porous media enabled verification of the two theoretical stochastic models for prediction of particle retention due to size exclusion. At the beginning of this analysis it is established that size exclusion is a dominant particle capture mechanism in the present study: calculated significant repulsive Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek potential between latex particles and glass beads is an indication of their mutual repulsion, thus, fulfilling the necessary condition for size exclusion. Applying linear uncertainty propagation method in the form of truncated Taylor's series expansion, combined standard uncertainties (CSUs) in normalised suspended particle concentrations are calculated using CSUs in experimentally determined parameters such as: an inlet volumetric flowrate of suspension, particle number in suspensions, particle concentrations in inlet and outlet streams, particle and pore throat size distributions. Weathering of glass beads in high alkaline solutions does not appreciably change particle size distribution, and, therefore, is not considered as an additional contributor to the weighted mean particle radius and corresponded weighted mean standard deviation. Weighted mean particle radius and LogNormal mean pore throat radius are characterised by the highest CSUs among all experimental parameters translating to high CSU in the jamming ratio factor (dimensionless particle size). Normalised suspended particle concentrations calculated via two theoretical models are characterised by higher CSUs than those for experimental data. The model accounting the fraction of inaccessible flow as a function of latex particle radius excellently predicts normalised suspended particle concentrations for the whole range of jamming ratios. The presented uncertainty analysis can be also used for comparison of intra- and inter-laboratory particle size exclusion data.

  11. Bayesian Neural Networks for Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic Modeling: A Comparison of Two Schemes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Zhao, Kaiguang

    2012-06-01

    Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been shown as useful tools to analyze modeling uncertainty of Neural Networks (NNs). This research focuses on the comparison of two BNNs. The first BNNs (BNN-I) use statistical methods to describe the characteristics of different uncertainty sources (input, parameter, and model structure) and integrate these uncertainties into a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to estimate total uncertainty. The second BNNs (BNN-II) lump all uncertainties into a single error term (i.e. the residual between model prediction and measurement). In this study, we propose a simple BNN-II, which use Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate Neural Networks with different structures (number of hidden units) and combine the predictions from different NNs to derive predictions and uncertainty analysis. We tested these two BNNs in two watersheds for daily and monthly hydrologic simulation. The BMA based BNNs developed in this study outperforms BNN-I in the two watersheds in terms of both accurate prediction and uncertainty estimation. These results show that, given incomplete understanding of the characteristics associated with each uncertainty source, the simple lumped error approach may yield better prediction and uncertainty estimation.

  12. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Survey: Energy End-Use Consumption Tables Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration Office Equip- ment Com- puters Other...

  13. Total Synthesis of (?)-Himandrine

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Movassaghi, Mohammad

    We describe the first total synthesis of (?)-himandrine, a member of the class II galbulimima alkaloids. Noteworthy features of this chemistry include a diastereoselective Diels?Alder reaction in the rapid synthesis of the ...

  14. December 2008 Uncertainty and Production Planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graves, Stephen C.

    December 2008 Uncertainty and Production Planning Stephen C. Graves MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E how uncertainty is handled in production planning. We describe and critique current practices decisions that are critical to the proper handling of uncertainty in production planning. We observe

  15. Quantum Mechanics and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jang Young Bang; Micheal S. Berger

    2006-11-30

    The generalized uncertainty principle has been described as a general consequence of incorporating a minimal length from a theory of quantum gravity. We consider a simple quantum mechanical model where the operator corresponding to position has discrete eigenvalues and show how the generalized uncertainty principle results for minimum uncertainty wave packets.

  16. BUDVYTIS et al.: LABEL PROPAGATION 1 Label propagation in complex video

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Tae-Kyun

    Propagation (PGP) Proposed Hybrid Model (PHM) Occlusion-aware labelling (Classifier injection off ) ProlongedBUDVYTIS et al.: LABEL PROPAGATION 1 Label propagation in complex video sequences using semi graphical model for label propagation in lengthy and complex video sequences. Given hand-labelled start

  17. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jae, Moosung; Milici, A.D.; Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.E. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States))

    1993-10-01

    A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies is presented using a new analytical tool, namely, influence diagrams. This framework includes multiple and sequential decisions, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation, and is applied to a proposed set of strategies for a pressurized water reactor station blackout sequence. The influence diagram associated with these strategies is constructed and evaluated. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagram, has an uncertainty distribution associated with it. Using the mean value of these distributions, a best estimate assessment is performed, and each strategy is ranked with respect to the conditional frequency of early containment failure (ECF). For the preferred alternative, the sensitivity of the results to values of the input variables is investigated. The sensitivity of the ranking itself is then considered. The distributions of the uncertain variables are also propagated through the influence diagram to rank the alternatives with respect to the uncertainty associated with the calculated conditional frequency of ECF. Finally, the sensitivity of the variance of the output distribution, given the preferred decision alternative, to the uncertainty of the input variables is investigated.

  18. A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslick, John C.; Ng, Brenda; Gao, Qianwen; Tong, Charles H.; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.; Miller, David C.

    2014-12-31

    Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification through PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. Thus, this computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.

  19. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD.; Storlie, Curt B.

    2006-06-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

  20. Uncertainty quantification of a radionuclide release model using an adaptive spectral technique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gilli, L.; Hoogwerf, C.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J. L.

    2013-07-01

    In this paper we present the application of a non-intrusive spectral techniques we recently developed for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated with a radionuclide migration problem. Spectral techniques can be used to reconstruct stochastic quantities of interest by means of a Fourier-like expansion. Their application to uncertainty propagation problems can be performed by evaluating a set of realizations which are chosen adaptively, in this work the main details about how this is done are presented. The uncertainty quantification problem we are going to deal with was first solved in a recent work where the authors used a spectral technique based on an intrusive approach. In this paper we are going to reproduce the results of this reference work, compare them and discuss the main numerical aspects. (authors)

  1. A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Eslick, John C.; Ng, Brenda; Gao, Qianwen; Tong, Charles H.; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.; Miller, David C.

    2014-12-31

    Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification throughmore »PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. Thus, this computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.« less

  2. TOTAL ANNUAL Rent / Mortgage $

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snider, Barry B.

    etc.) $ Child Care Expenses $ Educational Loans taken out in parent's name $ Other (itemize below): $ $ RESOURCES TOTAL ANNUAL AMOUNT Parent 1 Wages $ Parent 2 Wages $ Interest and/or Dividend Income $ Net Income $ Contributions to tax deferred plans(401K) $ Non Educational Veterans' Benefits $ Unemployment Compensation

  3. Total Sustainability Humber College

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Michael

    1 Total Sustainability Management Humber College November, 2012 SUSTAINABILITY SYMPOSIUM Green An Impending Global Disaster #12;3 Sustainability is NOT Climate Remediation #12;Our Premises "We cannot, you cannot improve it" (Lord Kelvin) "First rule of sustainability is to align with natural forces

  4. Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lohmann, Ulrike; Storelvmo, Trude; Jones, Andy; Rotstayn, Leon; Menon, Surabi; Quaas, Johannes; Ekman, Annica; Koch, Dorothy; Ruedy, Reto

    2009-09-25

    Uncertainties in aerosol forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. Traditionally these feedbacks were not included in estimates of total aerosol forcing. Here we argue that they should be included because these feedbacks act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Thus we propose replacing the direct and indirect aerosol forcing in the IPCC forcing chart with RFP estimates. This implies that it is better to evaluate the total anthropogenic aerosol effect as a whole.

  5. Cumulative theoretical uncertainties in lithium depletion boundary age

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tognelli, Emanuele; Degl'Innocenti, Scilla

    2015-01-01

    We performed a detailed analysis of the main theoretical uncertainties affecting the age at the lithium depletion boundary (LDB). To do that we computed almost 12000 pre-main sequence models with mass in the range [0.06, 0.4] M_sun by varying input physics (nuclear reaction cross-sections, plasma electron screening, outer boundary conditions, equation of state, and radiative opacity), initial chemical elements abundances (total metallicity, helium and deuterium abundances, and heavy elements mixture), and convection efficiency (mixing length parameter, alpha_ML). As a first step, we studied the effect of varying these quantities individually within their extreme values. Then, we analysed the impact of simultaneously perturbing the main input/parameters without an a priori assumption of independence. Such an approach allowed us to build for the first time the cumulative error stripe, which defines the edges of the maximum uncertainty region in the theoretical LDB age. We found that the cumulative error stripe ...

  6. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, Aron

    2015-06-25

    This presentation summarizes uncertainty estimation of radiometric data using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM) method.

  7. Universal scaling of forest fire propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bernard, Porterie; Pierre, Clerc Jean; Nouredine, Zekri; Zekri, Lotfi

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we use a variant of the Watts-Strogatz small-world model to predict wildfire behavior near the critical propagation/nonpropagation threshold. We find that forest fire patterns are fractal and that critical exponents are universal, which suggests that the propagation/nonpropagation transition is a second-order transition. Universality tells us that the characteristic critical behaviour of propagation in real (amorphous) forest landscapes can be extracted from the simplest network model.

  8. CALiPER Exploratory Study: Accounting for Uncertainty in Lumen Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bergman, Rolf; Paget, Maria L.; Richman, Eric E.

    2011-03-31

    With a well-defined and shared understanding of uncertainty in lumen measurements, testing laboratories can better evaluate their processes, contributing to greater consistency and credibility of lighting testing a key component of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercially Available LED Product Evaluation and Reporting (CALiPER) program. Reliable lighting testing is a crucial underlying factor contributing toward the success of many energy-efficient lighting efforts, such as the DOE GATEWAY demonstrations, Lighting Facts Label, ENERGY STAR® energy efficient lighting programs, and many others. Uncertainty in measurements is inherent to all testing methodologies, including photometric and other lighting-related testing. Uncertainty exists for all equipment, processes, and systems of measurement in individual as well as combined ways. A major issue with testing and the resulting accuracy of the tests is the uncertainty of the complete process. Individual equipment uncertainties are typically identified, but their relative value in practice and their combined value with other equipment and processes in the same test are elusive concepts, particularly for complex types of testing such as photometry. The total combined uncertainty of a measurement result is important for repeatable and comparative measurements for light emitting diode (LED) products in comparison with other technologies as well as competing products. This study provides a detailed and step-by-step method for determining uncertainty in lumen measurements, working closely with related standards efforts and key industry experts. This report uses the structure proposed in the Guide to Uncertainty Measurements (GUM) for evaluating and expressing uncertainty in measurements. The steps of the procedure are described and a spreadsheet format adapted for integrating sphere and goniophotometric uncertainty measurements is provided for entering parameters, ordering the information, calculating intermediate values and, finally, obtaining expanded uncertainties. Using this basis and examining each step of the photometric measurement and calibration methods, mathematical uncertainty models are developed. Determination of estimated values of input variables is discussed. Guidance is provided for the evaluation of the standard uncertainties of each input estimate, covariances associated with input estimates and the calculation of the result measurements. With this basis, the combined uncertainty of the measurement results and finally, the expanded uncertainty can be determined.

  9. Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giles, Mike

    reservoir modelling Considerable uncertainty about porosity of rock Astronomy "Random" spatial: uncertainty in modelling parameters uncertainty in geometry uncertainty in initial conditions uncertainty with Uncertainty Examples: Long-term climate modelling: Lots of sources of uncertainty including the effects

  10. An Estimator of Propagation of Cascading Failure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian; Wierzbicki, Kevin; Carreras, Benjamin A; Lynch, Vickie E; Newman, David E

    2006-01-01

    The authors suggest a statistical estimator to measure the extent to which failures propagate in cascading failures such as large blackouts.

  11. Quench propagation velocity for highly stabilized conductors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mints, R.G. |; Ogitsu, T. |; Devred, A.

    1995-05-01

    Quench propagation velocity in conductors having a large amount of stabilizer outside the multifilamentary area is considered. It is shown that the current redistribution process between the multifilamentary area and the stabilizer can strongly effect the quench propagation. A criterion is derived determining the conditions under which the current redistribution process becomes significant, and a model of effective stabilizer area is suggested to describe its influence on the quench propagation velocity. As an illustration, the model is applied to calculate the adiabatic quench propagation velocity for a conductor geometry with a multifilamentary area embedded inside the stabilizer.

  12. Light propagation and Imaging in Indefinite Metamaterials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yao, Jie

    2010-01-01

    photolithography by polarized light,” Applied PhysicsZhang, “Imaging visible light using anisotropic metamaterialcross-sectional review of the light propagation of TE mode (

  13. Wave Propagation in Fractured Poroelastic Media

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    robiel

    instance, tectonic stresses and natural or artificial hydraulic fracturing caused ... Seismic wave propagation through fractures and cracks is an important subject ...

  14. Topological Invariants and Anyonic Propagators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wellington da Cruz

    1998-03-05

    We obtain the Hausdorff dimension, $h=2-2s$, for particles with fractional spins in the interval, $0\\leq s \\leq 0.5$, such that the manifold is characterized by a topological invariant given by, ${\\cal W}=h+2s-2p$. This object is related to fractal properties of the path swept out by fractional spin particles, the spin of these particles, and the genus (number of anyons) of the manifold. We prove that the anyonic propagator can be put into a path integral representation which gives us a continuous family of Lagrangians in a convenient gauge. The formulas for, $h$ and ${\\cal W}$, were obtained taking into account the anyon model as a particle-flux system and by a qualitative inference of the topology.

  15. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

  16. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly...

  17. Total Crude by Pipeline

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home PageMonthly","10/2015"4,"Ames5 Tables July 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear,DecadeYearbyWithdrawalsHome6,672(MillionFeet)Product: Total

  18. A stochastic approach to estimate the uncertainty of dose mapping caused by uncertainties in b-spline registration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hub, Martina; Thieke, Christian; Kessler, Marc L.; Karger, Christian P. [Department of Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg, Germany and Department of Radiation Oncology, University Clinic Heidelberg, 69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States); Department of Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: In fractionated radiation therapy, image guidance with daily tomographic imaging becomes more and more clinical routine. In principle, this allows for daily computation of the delivered dose and for accumulation of these daily dose distributions to determine the actually delivered total dose to the patient. However, uncertainties in the mapping of the images can translate into errors of the accumulated total dose, depending on the dose gradient. In this work, an approach to estimate the uncertainty of mapping between medical images is proposed that identifies areas bearing a significant risk of inaccurate dose accumulation. Methods: This method accounts for the geometric uncertainty of image registration and the heterogeneity of the dose distribution, which is to be mapped. Its performance is demonstrated in context of dose mapping based on b-spline registration. It is based on evaluation of the sensitivity of dose mapping to variations of the b-spline coefficients combined with evaluation of the sensitivity of the registration metric with respect to the variations of the coefficients. It was evaluated based on patient data that was deformed based on a breathing model, where the ground truth of the deformation, and hence the actual true dose mapping error, is known. Results: The proposed approach has the potential to distinguish areas of the image where dose mapping is likely to be accurate from other areas of the same image, where a larger uncertainty must be expected. Conclusions: An approach to identify areas where dose mapping is likely to be inaccurate was developed and implemented. This method was tested for dose mapping, but it may be applied in context of other mapping tasks as well.

  19. A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2014-04-01

    Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

  20. Nuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties and Astrophysical Modeling. II. Carbon Yields from Low-mass Giants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    F. Herwig; Sam M. Austin; John C. Lattanzio

    2005-11-14

    Calculations that demonstrate the influence of three key nuclear reaction rates on the evolution of Asymptotic Giant Branch stars have been carried out. We study the case of a star with an initial mass of 2Msun and a metallicity of Z=0.01, somewhat less than the solar metallicity. The dredge-up of nuclear processed material from the interior of the star, and the yield predictions for carbon, are sensitive to the rate of the N14(p,gamma)O15 and triple-alpha reactions. These reactions dominate the H- and He-burning shells of stars in this late evolutionary phase. Published uncertainty estimates for each of these two rates propagated through stellar evolution calculations cause uncertainties in carbon enrichment and yield predictions of about a factor of two. The other important He-burning reaction C12(alpha,gamma)O16, although associated with the largest uncertainty in our study, does not have a significant influence on the abundance evolution compared to other modelling uncertainties. This finding remains valid when the entire evolution from the main-sequence to the tip of the AGB is considered. We discuss the experimental sources of the rate uncertainties addressed here, and give some outlook for future work.

  1. Adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for uncertainty quantification of a gas cooled fast reactor transient

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perko, Z.; Gilli, L.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J. L.

    2013-07-01

    Uncertainty quantification plays an increasingly important role in the nuclear community, especially with the rise of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies. Sensitivity analysis, surrogate models, Monte Carlo sampling and several other techniques can be used to propagate input uncertainties. In recent years however polynomial chaos expansion has become a popular alternative providing high accuracy at affordable computational cost. This paper presents such polynomial chaos (PC) methods using adaptive sparse grids and adaptive basis set construction, together with an application to a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor transient. Comparison is made between a new sparse grid algorithm and the traditionally used technique proposed by Gerstner. An adaptive basis construction method is also introduced and is proved to be advantageous both from an accuracy and a computational point of view. As a demonstration the uncertainty quantification of a 50% loss of flow transient in the GFR2400 Gas Cooled Fast Reactor design was performed using the CATHARE code system. The results are compared to direct Monte Carlo sampling and show the superior convergence and high accuracy of the polynomial chaos expansion. Since PC techniques are easy to implement, they can offer an attractive alternative to traditional techniques for the uncertainty quantification of large scale problems. (authors)

  2. Propagation testing multi-cell batteries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orendorff, Christopher J.; Lamb, Joshua; Steele, Leigh Anna Marie; Spangler, Scott Wilmer

    2014-10-01

    Propagation of single point or single cell failures in multi-cell batteries is a significant concern as batteries increase in scale for a variety of civilian and military applications. This report describes the procedure for testing failure propagation along with some representative test results to highlight the potential outcomes for different battery types and designs.

  3. Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty Di Niu, Chen Feng, Baochun Li's utility depends not only on its bandwidth usage, but more importantly on the portion of its demand that can be made by all tenants and the cloud provider, even with the presence of demand uncertainty

  4. Dealing with Uncertainty in the Semantic Web

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Theune, Mariët

    Dealing with Uncertainty in the Semantic Web Tjitze Rienstra M.Sc. Thesis November 8, 2009. Paul van der Vet Dr. Maarten Fokkinga #12;#12;Abstract Standardizing the Semantic Web is still of the Semantic Web, are yet to be standardized. One of these is dealing with uncertainty. Like classical logic

  5. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  6. Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty Eun Sug Park Man-Suk Oh Peter Guttorp NRCSET e c provides the Center's primary funding. #12;Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty Eun Sug Park1 composition profiles, and the source contributions is the main interest in multivariate receptor modeling. Due

  7. Short communication Smooth pursuit under stimulusresponse uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bar, Moshe

    reaction times (RTs) are typically faster than choice reaction times and increase with uncertainty­R) uncertainty and reaction times (RTs): RT = a + blog2(N), where a is simple RT, b is the slope of the increase an eye velocity criterion of 1.5j sŔ 1 which was equivalent to 25% of the stimulus velocity

  8. Majorization formulation of uncertainty in quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Partovi, M. Hossein [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University, Sacramento, California 95819-6041 (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is formulated for a set of generalized measurements within the framework of majorization theory, resulting in a partial uncertainty order on probability vectors that is stronger than those based on quasientropic measures. The theorem that emerges from this formulation guarantees that the uncertainty of the results of a set of generalized measurements without a common eigenstate has an inviolable lower bound which depends on the measurement set but not the state. A corollary to this theorem yields a parallel formulation of the uncertainty principle for generalized measurements corresponding to the entire class of quasientropic measures. Optimal majorization bounds for two and three mutually unbiased bases in two dimensions are calculated. Similarly, the leading term of the majorization bound for position and momentum measurements is calculated which provides a strong statement of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in direct operational terms. Another theorem provides a majorization condition for the least-uncertain generalized measurement of a given state with interesting physical implications.

  9. A flexible uncertainty quantification method for linearly coupled multi-physics systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Xiao Ng, Brenda; Sun, Yunwei; Tong, Charles

    2013-09-01

    Highlights: •We propose a “modularly hybrid” UQ methodology suitable for independent development of module-based multi-physics simulation. •Our algorithmic framework allows for each module to have its own UQ method (either intrusive or non-intrusive). •Information from each module is combined systematically to propagate “global uncertainty”. •Our proposed approach can allow for easy swapping of new methods for any modules without the need to address incompatibilities. •We demonstrate the proposed framework on a practical application involving a multi-species reactive transport model. -- Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to building an integrated uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology suitable for modern-day component-based approach for multi-physics simulation development. Our “hybrid” UQ methodology supports independent development of the most suitable UQ method, intrusive or non-intrusive, for each physics module by providing an algorithmic framework to couple these “stochastic” modules for propagating “global” uncertainties. We address algorithmic and computational issues associated with the construction of this hybrid framework. We demonstrate the utility of such a framework on a practical application involving a linearly coupled multi-species reactive transport model.

  10. The Low energy structure of the Nucleon-Nucleon interaction: Statistical vs Systematic Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. Navarro Perez; J. E. Amaro; E. Ruiz Arriola

    2015-05-15

    We analyze the low energy NN interaction by confronting statistical vs systematic uncertainties. This is based on the analysis of 6 different potentials fitted to the Granada-2013 database where a statistically meaningful partial wave analysis comprising a total of $6713$ np and pp published scattering data from 1950 till 2013 below pion production threshold has been made. This required the design and implementation of three new interactions which are introduced here. We extract threshold parameters uncertainties from the coupled channel effective range expansion up to $j \\le 5$. We find that for threshold parameters systematic uncertainties are generally at least an order of magnitude larger than statistical uncertainties. Similar results are found for np phase-shifts and amplitude parameters.

  11. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salvatores, Massimo; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Aliberti, G.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties is a crucial step in design. The comparison of a-priori uncertainties with the target accuracies, allows to define needs and priorities for uncertainty reduction. In view of their impact, the uncertainty analysis requires a reliability assessment of the uncertainty data used. The choice of the appropriate approach and the consistency of different approaches are discussed.

  12. Determination of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) Using Total Carbon Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ekechukwu, A.A.

    2002-05-10

    Several methods have been proposed to replace the Freon(TM)-extraction method to determine total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) content. For reasons of cost, sensitivity, precision, or simplicity, none of the replacement methods are feasible for analysis of radioactive samples at our facility. We have developed a method to measure total petroleum hydrocarbon content in aqueous sample matrixes using total organic carbon (total carbon) determination. The total carbon content (TC1) of the sample is measured using a total organic carbon analyzer. The sample is then contacted with a small volume of non-pokar solvent to extract the total petroleum hydrocarbons. The total carbon content of the resultant aqueous phase of the extracted sample (TC2) is measured. Total petroleum hydrocarbon content is calculated (TPH = TC1-TC2). The resultant data are consistent with results obtained using Freon(TM) extraction followed by infrared absorbance.

  13. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  14. Laser-induced acoustic wave generation/propagation/interaction in water in various internal channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2010-01-01

    induced plane acoustic wave generation, propagation andinduced acoustic wave generation/propagation/interaction insingle acoustic wave generation, propagation, interaction

  15. Incorporating Uncertainty in Watershed Management Decision-Making: A Mercury TMDL Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    Incorporating Uncertainty in Watershed Management Decision-Making: A Mercury TMDL Case Study-4020, Stanford, CA 94305-4020; email: labiosa@stanford.edu 2 Department of Management Science. Several mercury Total Maximum Daily Load regulations are currently being developed to address this problem

  16. Tackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong, Vincent

    both users, by reducing their energy expenses, and utility companies, by improving the peak T Number of time slots a Nominal power of appliance a Ea Total required energy of appliance a a OperatingTackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid Pedram

  17. EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Wei

    EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN Xiaoping Du* and Wei robust design procedure that utilizes efficient methods for uncertainty analysis is developed. Different techniques used for uncertainty analysis will significantly reduce the amount of design evaluations

  18. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY Chandrashekhar M.* , Ranjan Uncertainties associated with a structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage that material uncertainties in composite structures cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can

  19. Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in Laser-Produced Underdense...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in Laser-Produced Underdense Plasma for Efficient X-Ray Generation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in...

  20. Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed Media Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in...

  1. ULTRASHORT LASER PULSE PROPAGATION IN WATER 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Byeon, Joong-Hyeok

    2010-01-16

    We simulate ultrashort pulse propagation through water by numerical methods, which is a kind of optical communication research. Ultrashort pulses have been known to have non Beer-Lambert behavior, whereas continuous waves ...

  2. Ultrashort Pulse Propagation in the Linear Regime 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Jieyu

    2010-07-14

    First, we investigate the Bouguer-Lambert-Beer (BLB) law as applied to the transmission of ultrashort pulses through water in the linear absorption regime. We present a linear theory for propagation of ultrashort laser ...

  3. Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmed, Taahir

    2011-08-08

    The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

  4. Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

  5. An uncertainty principle for unimodular quantum groups

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crann, Jason; Kalantar, Mehrdad E-mail: mkalanta@math.carleton.ca

    2014-08-15

    We present a generalization of Hirschman's entropic uncertainty principle for locally compact Abelian groups to unimodular locally compact quantum groups. As a corollary, we strengthen a well-known uncertainty principle for compact groups, and generalize the relation to compact quantum groups of Kac type. We also establish the complementarity of finite-dimensional quantum group algebras. In the non-unimodular setting, we obtain an uncertainty relation for arbitrary locally compact groups using the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight as the measure of uncertainty. We also show that when restricted to q-traces of discrete quantum groups, the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight reduces to the canonical entropy of the random walk generated by the state.

  6. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Guohong

    2004-09-30

    existing methods. The integrated mismatch method tends to generate smaller ranges of uncertainty than many existing methods. When starting from nonoptimal reservoir models, in some cases the integrated mismatch method is able to bracket the true reserves...

  7. Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christensen, Daniel Erik

    2012-01-01

    For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

  8. Ultrashort pulse propagation and the Anderson localization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silvia Gentilini; Andrea Fratalocchi; Luca Angelani; Giancarlo Ruocco; Claudio Conti

    2008-10-09

    We investigate the dynamics of a 10 fs light pulse propagating in a random medium by the direct solution of the 3D Maxwell equations. Our approach employs molecular dynamics to generate a distribution of spherical scatterers and a parallel finite-difference time-domain code for the vectorial wave propagation. We calculate the disorder-averaged energy velocity and the decay time of the transmitted pulse Versus the localization length for an increasing refractive index.

  9. Shock wave propagation in vibrofluidized granular materials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kai Huang; Guoqing Miao; Peng Zhang; Yi Yun; Rongjue Wei

    2005-11-29

    Shock wave formation and propagation in two-dimensional granular materials under vertical vibration are studied by digital high speed photography. The steepen density and temperature wave fronts form near the plate as granular layer collides with vibrating plate and propagate upward through the layer. The temperature front is always in the transition region between the upward and downward granular flows. The effects of driving parameters and particle number on the shock are also explored.

  10. Quantification of initial-data uncertainty on a shock-accelerated gas cylinder

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tritschler, V. K. Avdonin, A.; Hickel, S.; Hu, X. Y.; Adams, N. A.

    2014-02-15

    We quantify initial-data uncertainties on a shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder by two-dimensional well-resolved direct numerical simulations. A high-resolution compressible multicomponent flow simulation model is coupled with a polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the initial-data uncertainties to the output quantities of interest. The initial flow configuration follows previous experimental and numerical works of the shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder. We investigate three main initial-data uncertainties, (i) shock Mach number, (ii) contamination of SF{sub 6} with acetone, and (iii) initial deviations of the heavy-gas region from a perfect cylindrical shape. The impact of initial-data uncertainties on the mixing process is examined. The results suggest that the mixing process is highly sensitive to input variations of shock Mach number and acetone contamination. Additionally, our results indicate that the measured shock Mach number in the experiment of Tomkins et al. [“An experimental investigation of mixing mechanisms in shock-accelerated flow,” J. Fluid. Mech. 611, 131 (2008)] and the estimated contamination of the SF{sub 6} region with acetone [S. K. Shankar, S. Kawai, and S. K. Lele, “Two-dimensional viscous flow simulation of a shock accelerated heavy gas cylinder,” Phys. Fluids 23, 024102 (2011)] exhibit deviations from those that lead to best agreement between our simulations and the experiment in terms of overall flow evolution.

  11. Uncertainty of Pyrometers in a Casting Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mee, D.K.; Elkins, J.E.; Fleenor, R.M.; Morrision, J.M.; Sherrill, M.W.; Seiber, L.E.

    2001-12-07

    This work has established uncertainty limits for the EUO filament pyrometers, digital pyrometers, two-color automatic pyrometers, and the standards used to certify these instruments (Table 1). If symmetrical limits are used, filament pyrometers calibrated in Production have certification uncertainties of not more than {+-}20.5 C traceable to NIST over the certification period. Uncertainties of these pyrometers were roughly {+-}14.7 C before introduction of the working standard that allowed certification in the field. Digital pyrometers addressed in this report have symmetrical uncertainties of not more than {+-}12.7 C or {+-}18.1 C when certified on a Y-12 Standards Laboratory strip lamp or in a production area tube furnace, respectively. Uncertainty estimates for automatic two-color pyrometers certified in Production are {+-}16.7 C. Additional uncertainty and bias are introduced when measuring production melt temperatures. A -19.4 C bias was measured in a large 1987 data set which is believed to be caused primarily by use of Pyrex{trademark} windows (not present in current configuration) and window fogging. Large variability (2{sigma} = 28.6 C) exists in the first 10 m of the hold period. This variability is attributed to emissivity variation across the melt and reflection from hot surfaces. For runs with hold periods extending to 20 m, the uncertainty approaches the calibration uncertainty of the pyrometers. When certifying pyrometers on a strip lamp at the Y-12 Standards Laboratory, it is important to limit ambient temperature variation (23{+-}4 C), to order calibration points from high to low temperatures, to allow 6 m for the lamp to reach thermal equilibrium (12 m for certifications below 1200 C) to minimize pyrometer bias, and to calibrate the pyrometer if error exceeds vendor specifications. A procedure has been written to assure conformance.

  12. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Ming Ye...

  13. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by...

  14. Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilist...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case...

  15. Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for void formation under irradiation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a...

  16. U.S. Total Exports

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total to Spain Cameron, LA Sabine Pass, LA Total to United Kingdom Sabine Pass, LA LNG Exports from Babb, MT LNG Exports from Buffalo, NY LNG Exports from Kenai, AK LNG Exports...

  17. Uncertainties and severe-accident management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kastenberg, W.E. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States))

    1991-01-01

    Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies.

  18. Making and Propagating Elastic Waves: Overview of the new wave propagation code WPP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCandless, K P; Petersson, N A; Nilsson, S; Rodgers, A; Sjogreen, B; Blair, S C

    2006-05-09

    We are developing a new parallel 3D wave propagation code at LLNL called WPP (Wave Propagation Program). WPP is being designed to incorporate the latest developments in embedded boundary and mesh refinement technology for finite difference methods, as well as having an efficient portable implementation to run on the latest supercomputers at LLNL. We are currently exploring seismic wave applications, including a recent effort to compute ground motions for the 1906 Great San Francisco Earthquake. This paper will briefly describe the wave propagation problem, features of our numerical method to model it, implementation of the wave propagation code, and results from the 1906 Great San Francisco Earthquake simulation.

  19. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Phase I Status and Initial Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Friederike Bostelmann; Kostadin Ivanov

    2014-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. One way to address the uncertainties in the HTGR analysis tools are to assess the sensitivity of critical parameters (such as the calculated maximum fuel temperature during loss of coolant accidents) to a few important input uncertainties. The input parameters were identified by engineering judgement in the past but are today typically based on a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT) process. The input parameters can also be derived from sensitivity studies and are then varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, there is often no easy way to compensate for these uncertainties. In engineering system design, a common approach for addressing performance uncertainties is to add compensating margins to the system, but with passive properties credited it is not so clear how to apply it in the case of modular HTGR heat removal path. Other more sophisticated uncertainty modelling approaches, including Monte Carlo analysis, have also been proposed and applied. Ideally one wishes to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Therefore some safety analysis calculations may use a mixture of these approaches for different parameters depending upon the particular requirements of the analysis problem involved. Sensitivity analysis can for example be used to provide information as part of an uncertainty analysis to determine best estimate plus uncertainty results to the required confidence level. In order to address uncertainty propagation in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) [6] that officially started in 2013. Although this project focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements, many lessons can be learned from the LWR community and the significant progress already made towards a consistent methodology uncertainty analysis. In the case of LWRs the NRC has already in 1988 amended 10 CFR 50.46 to allow best-estimate (plus uncertainties) calculations of emergency core cooling system performance. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also established an Expert Group on "Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling" which finally led to the definition of the "Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" [7]. The CRP on HTGR UAM will follow as far as possible the on-going OECD Light Water Reactor UAM benchmark activity.

  20. Uncertainty analysis on reactivity and discharged inventory for a pressurized water reactor fuel assembly due to {sup 235,238}U nuclear data uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Da Cruz, D. F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A. J. [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2012-07-01

    This paper discusses the uncertainty analysis on reactivity and inventory for a typical PWR fuel element as a result of uncertainties in {sup 235,238}U nuclear data. A typical Westinghouse 3-loop fuel assembly fuelled with UO{sub 2} fuel with 4.8% enrichment has been selected. The Total Monte-Carlo method has been applied using the deterministic transport code DRAGON. This code allows the generation of the few-groups nuclear data libraries by directly using data contained in the nuclear data evaluation files. The nuclear data used in this study is from the JEFF3.1 evaluation, and the nuclear data files for {sup 238}U and {sup 235}U (randomized for the generation of the various DRAGON libraries) are taken from the nuclear data library TENDL. The total uncertainty (obtained by randomizing all {sup 238}U and {sup 235}U nuclear data in the ENDF files) on the reactor parameters has been split into different components (different nuclear reaction channels). Results show that the TMC method in combination with a deterministic transport code constitutes a powerful tool for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of reactor physics parameters. (authors)

  1. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the first in a series of inference uncertainty estimations. While the methods demonstrated are primarily statistical, these do not preclude the use of nonprobabilistic methods for uncertainty characterization. The methods presented permit accurate determinations for validation and eventual prediction. It is a goal that these methods establish a standard against which best practice may evolve for determining degree of validation.

  2. Quantifying the Objective Cost of Uncertainty in Complex Dynamical Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yoon, Byung-Jun

    in translational genomics. Index Terms Mean objective cost of uncertainty (MOCU), objective-based uncertaintyQuantifying the Objective Cost of Uncertainty in Complex Dynamical Systems Byung-Jun Yoon, Senior quantifies the uncertainty in a given system based on the expected increase of the operational cost

  3. Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guibas, Leonidas J.

    Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1 , David Hsu2 , Hanna Kurniawati2 uncertainty during planning. We in- troduce the notion of a bounded uncertainty roadmap (BURM) and use, and it is not much slower than classic probabilistic roadmap planning algorithms, which ignore uncertainty

  4. MUJERES TOTAL BIOLOGIA 21 32

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Autonoma de Madrid, Universidad

    CIENCIAS ECON�MICAS Y EMPRESARIALES TOTAL DERECHO Nº de tesis leídas y aprobadas por centro y departamento en el año 2014 CENTRO DEPARTAMENTO Nº DE TESIS CIENCIAS MEDICINA TOTAL MEDICINA #12;MUJERES TOTAL Nº de tesis leídas y aprobadas por centro y departamento en el año 2014 CENTRO DEPARTAMENTO Nº DE TESIS

  5. Electromagnetic wave propagation in random waveguides

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ricardo Alonso; Liliana Borcea

    2013-10-18

    We study long range propagation of electromagnetic waves in random waveguides with rectangular cross-section and perfectly conducting boundaries. The waveguide is filled with an isotropic linear dielectric material, with randomly fluctuating electric permittivity. The fluctuations are weak, but they cause significant cumulative scattering over long distances of propagation of the waves. We decompose the wave field in propagating and evanescent transverse electric and magnetic modes with random amplitudes that encode the cumulative scattering effects. They satisfy a coupled system of stochastic differential equations driven by the random fluctuations of the electric permittivity. We analyze the solution of this system with the diffusion approximation theorem, under the assumption that the fluctuations decorrelate rapidly in the range direction. The result is a detailed characterization of the transport of energy in the waveguide, the loss of coherence of the modes and the depolarization of the waves due to cumulative scattering.

  6. Dynamical Event during Slow Crack Propagation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma {sup o}loy, Knut Jorgen; Schmittbuhl, Jean

    2001-09-03

    We address the role of material heterogeneities on the propagation of a slow rupture at laboratory scale. With a high speed camera, we follow an in-plane crack front during its propagation through a transparent heterogeneous Plexiglas block. We obtain two major results. First, the slip along the interface is strongly correlated over scales much larger than the asperity sizes. Second, the dynamics is scale dependent. Locally, mechanical instabilities are triggered during asperity depinning and propagate along the front. The intermittent behavior at the asperity scale is in contrast with the large scale smooth creeping evolution of the average crack position. The dynamics is described on the basis of a Family-Vicsek scaling.

  7. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    1.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.3 Table HC5.2 Living Space Characteristics by Year of Construction, 2005 Living Space Characteristics 1970 to 1979 1980 to 1989 1990 to 1999 2000 to...

  8. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Table HC7.7 Air-Conditioning Usage Indicators by Household Income, 2005 Below Poverty Line Eligible for Federal Assistance 1 2005 Household Income Housing Units (millions)...

  9. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 65.9 3.9 15.1 15.6 11.1 7.0 5.2 8.0 Without a Heat Pump... 53.5 3.5 12.9 12.7 8.6 5.5 4.2 6.2 With a Heat...

  10. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    em... 65.9 51.7 43.9 2.5 0.7 1.6 3.1 Without a Heat Pump... 53.5 41.1 34.8 2.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 With a Heat...

  11. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... 65.9 11.0 16.5 13.5 8.7 16.1 6.4 17.2 Without a Heat Pump... 53.5 9.4 13.6 10.7 7.1 12.7 5.4 14.5 With a Heat...

  12. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1.5 2.3 3.0 6.0 For Two Housing Units... 0.9 0.3 0.4 Q Q N Q 0.4 Heat Pump... 9.2 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.3 2.4 0.6 1.9...

  13. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... 65.9 3.7 2.6 6.1 6.8 11.2 13.2 13.9 8.2 Without a Heat Pump... 53.5 3.6 2.3 5.5 5.8 9.5 10.1 10.3 6.4 With a...

  14. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    tem... 65.9 14.1 3.6 1.5 2.1 6.4 0.6 Without a Heat Pump... 53.5 12.4 3.1 1.3 1.8 5.7 0.6 With a Heat...

  15. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    75.6 9.6 18.0 16.4 11.3 20.3 6.4 17.9 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 7.6 14.2 13.1 9.2 14.6 5.0 14.5 Laptop...

  16. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    75.6 30.3 12.5 18.1 14.7 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 22.9 9.8 14.1 11.9...

  17. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 75.6 17.5 12.1 5.4 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 14.1 10.0 4.0...

  18. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    75.6 13.7 17.5 26.6 17.8 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 10.4 14.1 20.5 13.7...

  19. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 75.6 26.6 14.5 4.1 7.9 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 20.5 11.0 3.4 6.1...

  20. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ... 0.7 Q Q Q Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 11.4 8.1 3.3 Flat-panel...

  1. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ... 0.7 Q Q Q 0.3 Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 7.9 11.4 15.4 10.2 Flat-panel...

  2. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ... 0.7 Q Q Q Q Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 2.3 2.5 3.1 4.8...

  3. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ... 0.7 Q Q Q Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 7.9 5.6 2.4 Flat-panel...

  4. Total..........................................................

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    ... 0.7 Q Q Q Q Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 15.4 7.9 2.8 4.8 Flat-panel...

  5. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ... 0.7 0.3 Q Q Q Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 17.7 7.5 10.2 9.6 Flat-panel...

  6. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 75.6 17.8 5.3 12.5 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 13.7 4.2 9.5 Laptop...

  7. Total..........................................................

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    ... 0.7 0.3 Q Q Type of Monitor Used on Most-Used PC Desk-top CRT (Standard Monitor)... 45.0 10.2 3.2 7.0 Flat-panel...

  8. Total..........................................................

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    ... 75.6 4.2 5.0 5.3 9.0 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model... 58.6 3.2 3.9 4.0 6.7...

  9. Total..........................................................

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    1.2 0.5 0.9 3 or More... 0.6 Q Q Q Q Q N Q Plasma Television Sets... 3.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.9...

  10. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Q 0.4 3 or More Units... 5.4 0.3 Q Q Central Air-Conditioning Usage Air-Conditioned Floorspace (Square Feet)...

  11. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... 1.9 1.1 Q Q 0.3 Q Do Not Use Central Air-Conditioning... 45.2 24.6 3.6 5.0 8.8 3.2 Use a Programmable...

  12. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3.3 2.9 Q Q Q N For Two Housing Units... 1.4 Q Q 0.5 0.8 N Central Warm-Air Furnace... 2.8 2.4 Q Q Q 0.2 Other...

  13. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 or More Units... 5.4 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.9 Central Air-Conditioning Usage Air-Conditioned Floorspace (Square Feet)...

  14. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    s... 58.2 9.2 4.9 7.8 7.1 8.8 8.4 7.8 4.2 Central Warm-Air Furnace... 44.7 5.2 3.1 5.6 5.2 7.1 7.4 7.3 3.9 For...

  15. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 or More Units... 5.4 2.3 1.7 0.6 Central Air-Conditioning Usage Air-Conditioned Floorspace (Square Feet)...

  16. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 or More Units... 5.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 1.0 Central Air-Conditioning Usage Air-Conditioned Floorspace (Square Feet)...

  17. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    38.9 12.9 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it... 1.9 0.3 Q 0.5 1.0 Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System......

  18. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    0.3 3 or More Units... 5.4 0.7 0.5 Q Central Air-Conditioning Usage Air-Conditioned Floorspace (Square Feet)...

  19. Total..........................................................

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 or More Units... 5.4 2.3 0.7 2.1 0.3 Central Air-Conditioning Usage Air-Conditioned Floorspace (Square Feet)...

  20. Total..............................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1 86.6

  1. Total................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1

  2. Total........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1 111.1

  3. Total..........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1

  4. Total...........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1Q

  5. Total...........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1QQ

  6. Total...........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6 111.1QQ14.7

  7. Total...........................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.55.6

  8. Total............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4

  9. Total............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.4

  10. Total.............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8 20.6 13.1

  11. Total..............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8 20.6

  12. Total..............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8 20.6Do Not

  13. Total...............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8 20.6Do

  14. Total...............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8 20.6Do0.7

  15. Total...............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8

  16. Total...............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do Not Have

  17. Total...............................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do Not

  18. Total................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do Not

  19. Total.................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do Not49.2

  20. Total.................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do

  1. Total.................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do26.7 28.8

  2. Total..................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do26.7

  3. Total..................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do26.733.0

  4. Total..................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7 28.8Do26.733.0.

  5. Total...................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.7

  6. Total...................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.8 1.0 1.2

  7. Total...................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.8 1.0

  8. Total...................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.8 1.0Type

  9. Total...................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.8

  10. Total....................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.814.7 7.4

  11. Total.......................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.814.7

  12. Total.......................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2 7.814.75.6

  13. Total.......................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.2

  14. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.225.6 40.7

  15. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.225.6

  16. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.225.65.6 17.7

  17. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.225.65.6

  18. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7 7.426.715.225.65.64.2

  19. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.7

  20. Total........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.7 22.3 Do

  1. Total.........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.7 22.3

  2. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.7 22.325.6

  3. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.7 22.325.6.

  4. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.7

  5. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.70.7 21.7

  6. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.70.7 21.74.2

  7. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.70.7

  8. Total..........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.70.77.1 19.0

  9. Total...........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.70.77.1

  10. Total...........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0 22.70.77.15.6

  11. Total...........................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0

  12. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0Do Not Have

  13. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0Do Not

  14. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0Do NotCooking

  15. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0Do NotCookingDo

  16. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0Do

  17. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0DoCooking

  18. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0DoCookingDo Not

  19. Total.............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0DoCookingDo

  20. Total..............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 19.0DoCookingDo20.6

  1. Total..............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1

  2. Total..............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1 7.0 8.0

  3. Total..............................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1 7.0 8.07.1

  4. Total.................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1 7.0

  5. Total.................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1 7.07.1 7.0

  6. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1 7.07.1

  7. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1 7.07.15.6

  8. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1

  9. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1Personal

  10. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 7.1Personal4.2

  11. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1

  12. Total....................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 111.1 47.1

  13. Total.........................................................................................

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight.... 111.1 14.77.1 111.1 111.1

  14. Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home PageMonthly","10/2015"4,"Ames5 Tables July 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear,DecadeYearbyWithdrawalsHome6,672(MillionFeet) Oil4)5,Product:

  15. Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home PageMonthly","10/2015"4,"Ames5 Tables July 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear,DecadeYearbyWithdrawalsHome6,672(MillionFeet)

  16. Double porosity modeling in elastic wave propagation for reservoir characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berryman, J. G., LLNL

    1998-06-01

    Phenomenological equations for the poroelastic behavior of a double porosity medium have been formulated and the coefficients in these linear equations identified. The generalization from a single porosity model increases the number of independent coefficients from three to six for an isotropic applied stress. In a quasistatic analysis, the physical interpretations are based upon considerations of extremes in both spatial and temporal scales. The limit of very short times is the one most relevant for wave propagation, and in this case both matrix porosity and fractures behave in an undrained fashion. For the very long times more relevant for reservoir drawdown,the double porosity medium behaves as an equivalent single porosity medium At the macroscopic spatial level, the pertinent parameters (such as the total compressibility) may be determined by appropriate field tests. At the mesoscopic scale pertinent parameters of the rock matrix can be determined directly through laboratory measurements on core, and the compressibility can be measured for a single fracture. We show explicitly how to generalize the quasistatic results to incorporate wave propagation effects and how effects that are usually attributed to squirt flow under partially saturated conditions can be explained alternatively in terms of the double-porosity model. The result is therefore a theory that generalizes, but is completely consistent with, Biot`s theory of poroelasticity and is valid for analysis of elastic wave data from highly fractured reservoirs.

  17. The various manifestations of collisionless dissipation in wave propagation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benisti, Didier; Morice, Olivier; Gremillet, Laurent

    2012-06-15

    The propagation of an electrostatic wave packet inside a collisionless and initially Maxwellian plasma is always dissipative because of the irreversible acceleration of the electrons by the wave. Then, in the linear regime, the wave packet is Landau damped, so that in the reference frame moving at the group velocity, the wave amplitude decays exponentially with time. In the nonlinear regime, once phase mixing has occurred and when the electron motion is nearly adiabatic, the damping rate is strongly reduced compared to the Landau one, so that the wave amplitude remains nearly constant along the characteristics. Yet, we show here that the electrons are still globally accelerated by the wave packet, and in one dimension, this leads to a non local amplitude dependence of the group velocity. As a result, a freely propagating wave packet would shrink, and therefore, so would its total energy. In more than one dimension, not only does the magnitude of the group velocity nonlinearly vary, but also its direction. In the weakly nonlinear regime, when the collisionless damping rate is still significant compared to its linear value, the group velocity is directed towards the outside of the wave packet and tends to increase its transverse extent, while the opposite is true once the wave is essentially undamped. The impact of the nonlinear variation of the group velocity on the transverse size of the wave packet is quantified, and compared to that induced by the self-focussing due to wave front bowing.

  18. Pulse propagation in decorated random chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Upendra Harbola; Alexandre Rosas; Aldo H. Romero; Katja Lindenberg

    2010-05-05

    We study pulse propagation in one-dimensional chains of spherical granules decorated with small randomly-sized granules placed between bigger monodisperse ones. Such "designer chains" are of interest in efforts to control the behavior of the pulse so as to optimize its propagation or attenuation, depending on the desired application. We show that a recently proposed effective description of simple decorated chains can be extended to predict pulse properties in chains decorated with small granules of randomly chosen radii. Furthermore, we also show that the binary collision approximation can again be used to provide analytic results for this system.

  19. Light propagation in the South Pole ice

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Dawn; Collaboration: IceCube Collaboration

    2014-11-18

    The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is located in the ice near the geographic South Pole. Particle showers from neutrino interactions in the ice produce light which is detected by IceCube modules, and the amount and pattern of deposited light are used to reconstruct the properties of the incident neutrino. Since light is scattered and absorbed by ice between the neutrino interaction vertex and the sensor, IceCube event reconstruction depends on understanding the propagation of light through the ice. This paper presents the current status of modeling light propagation in South Pole ice, including the recent observation of an azimuthal anisotropy in the scattering.

  20. Laser propagation in underdense plasmas: Scaling arguments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garrison, J.C.

    1993-05-01

    The propagation of an intense laser beam in the underdense plasma is modelled by treating the plasma as a relativistic, zero temperature, charged fluid. For paraxial propagation and a sufficiently underdense plasma ({omega}p/{omega} {much_lt} 1), a multiple-scales technique is used to expand the exact equations in powers of the small parameter {theta} {equivalent_to} {omega}p/{omega}. The zeroth order equations are used in a critical examination of previous work on this problem, and to derive a scaling law for the threshold power required for cavitation.

  1. Sampling-based Uncertainty Quantification in Deconvolution of X-ray Radiographs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Howard, M. [NSTec; Luttman, A. [NSTec; Fowler, M. [NSTec

    2014-11-01

    In imaging applications that focus on quantitative analysis{such as X-ray radiography in the security sciences--it is necessary to be able to reliably estimate the uncertainties in the processing algorithms applied to the image data, and deconvolving the system blur out of the image is usually an essential step. In this work we solve the deconvolution problem within a Bayesian framework for edge-enhancing reconstruction with uncertainty quantification. The likelihood is a normal approximation to the Poisson likelihood, and the prior is generated from a classical total variation regularized Poisson deconvolution. Samples from the corresponding posterior distribution are computed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, giving a pointwise measure of uncertainty in the final, deconvolved signal. We demonstrate the results on real data used to calibrate a high-energy X-ray source and show that this approach gives reconstructions as good as classical regularization methods, while mitigating many of their drawbacks.

  2. The propagation of kinetic energy across scales in turbulent flows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cardesa, José I; Dong, Siwei; Jiménez, Javier

    2015-01-01

    A temporal study of energy transfer across length scales is performed in 3D numerical simulations of homogeneous shear flow and isotropic turbulence, at Reynolds numbers in the range $Re_{\\lambda}=107-384$. The average time taken by perturbations in the energy flux to travel between scales is measured and shown to be additive, as inferred from the agreement between the total travel time from a given scale to the smallest dissipative motions, and the time estimated from successive jumps through intermediate scales. Our data suggests that the propagation of disturbances in the energy flux is independent of the forcing and that it defines a `velocity' that determines the energy flux itself. These results support that the cascade is, on average, a scale-local process where energy is continuously transmitted from one scale to the next in order of decreasing size.

  3. MUJERES ( * ) TOTAL BIOLOGA 16 22

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Autonoma de Madrid, Universidad

    13 INGENIERÍA INFORMÁTICA 2 11 TOTAL ESCUELA POLITÉCNICA SUPERIOR 2 11 ANTROPOLOGÍA SOCIAL Y TEORÍA DEL ARTE 1 1 LINGÜISTICA 4 7 MÚSICA 1 3 PREHISTORIA Y ARQUEOLOGÍA 0 1 TOTAL FILOSOFÍA Y LETRAS 22 Y EMPRESARIALES Fuente: Centro de Estudios de Posgrado, a 9 de Julio del 2010 DERECHO ESCUELA

  4. Generalized uncertainty principle and thermostatistics: a semiclassical approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abbasiyan-Motlaq, M

    2015-01-01

    We present an exact treatment of the thermodynamics of physical systems in the framework of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). Our purpose is to study and compare the consequences of two GUPs that one implies a minimal length while the other predicts a minimal length and a maximal momentum. Using a semiclassical method, we exactly calculate the modified internal energies and heat capacities in the presence of generalized commutation relations. We show that the total shift in these quantities only depends on the deformed algebra not on the system under study. Finally, the modified internal energy for an specific physical system such as ideal gas is obtained in the framework of two different GUPs.

  5. Generalized uncertainty principle and thermostatistics: a semiclassical approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Abbasiyan-Motlaq; P. Pedram

    2015-09-29

    We present an exact treatment of the thermodynamics of physical systems in the framework of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). Our purpose is to study and compare the consequences of two GUPs that one implies a minimal length while the other predicts a minimal length and a maximal momentum. Using a semiclassical method, we exactly calculate the modified internal energies and heat capacities in the presence of generalized commutation relations. We show that the total shift in these quantities only depends on the deformed algebra not on the system under study. Finally, the modified internal energy for an specific physical system such as ideal gas is obtained in the framework of two different GUPs.

  6. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol, UK Michel1.tex. 1 Introduction This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical

  7. Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty Ioanna Ioannou, Charalambos D. Charalambous and Sergey Loyka Abstract--Outage probability of a class of block-fading (MIMO) channels outage probability defined as min (over the input distribution) -max (over the channel distribution class

  8. Time Crystals from Minimum Time Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mir Faizal; Mohammed M. Khalil; Saurya Das

    2014-12-29

    Motivated by the Generalized Uncertainty Principle, covariance, and a minimum measurable time, we propose a deformation of the Heisenberg algebra, and show that this leads to corrections to all quantum mechanical systems. We also demonstrate that such a deformation implies a discrete spectrum for time. In other words, time behaves like a crystal.

  9. Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Draper, David

    problems 1 #12;Outline Two case studies, both involving risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal methods has better repeated-sampling properties than maximum likelihood. -- Several (standard) fluid dynamics: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and inverse problems 2 #12;Case Study 1: GESAMAC Nuclear fission

  10. Nuclear power expansion: thinking about uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holt, Lynne; Sotkiewicz, Paul; Berg, Sanford

    2010-06-15

    Nuclear power is one of many options available to achieve reduced carbon dioxide emissions. The real-option value model can help explain the uncertainties facing prospective nuclear plant developers in developing mitigation strategies for the development, construction, and operation of new nuclear plants. (author)

  11. Coping with uncertainties of mercury regulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reich, K.

    2006-09-15

    The thermometer is rising as coal-fired plants cope with the uncertainties of mercury regulation. The paper deals with a diagnosis and a suggested cure. It describes the state of mercury emission rules in the different US states, many of which had laws or rules in place before the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) was promulgated.

  12. Dealing with Uncertainties During Heat Exchanger Design 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Polley, G. T.; Pugh, S. J.

    2001-01-01

    Over the last thirty years much progress has been made in heat exchanger design methodology. Even so, the design engineer still has to deal with a great deal of uncertainty. Whilst the methods used to predict heat transfer coefficients are now quite...

  13. Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty The Challenge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitton, Mary C.

    Roadmap (SMR), a new motion planning framework that explicitly considers uncertainty in robot motion approach. Our framework builds on the highly successful approach used in Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRMs of discrete states is selected in the state space, and a roadmap is built that represents their collision

  14. CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES Stephen E. Schwartz http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html December 4, 2001 Updated, March 4, 2002 #12;OUTLINE · Overview of the Earth climate system · Increased concentrations of "greenhouse gases" · Radiative forcing of climate change · Climate system response

  15. Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remotesensing Classification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remote­sensing Classification Frans J.M. van der Wel Utrecht analysis of remotely­sensed data aims at acquiring insight as to the stability of possible classifications for an overwhelming flow of data on the appearance and condition of our planet. The data yielded by remote sensing can

  16. COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cambridge, University of

    COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST CONTROL OF TURBOCHARGED DIESEL ENGINES arose during the model validation for a turbocharged diesel engine (cf. Sections 2 and 3). Mismatches PROBLEM The plant to be controlled is a turbocharged pas- senger car diesel engine equipped with exhaust

  17. On the Vacuum Propagation of Gravitational Waves

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiao Liu

    2007-06-05

    We show that, for any local, causal quantum field theory which couples covariantly to gravity, and which admits Minkowski spacetime vacuum(a) invariant under the inhomogeneous proper orthochronous Lorentz group, plane gravitational waves propagating in such Minkowski vacuum(a) do not dissipate energy or momentum via quantum field theoretic effects.

  18. November 2012 Wave propagation in complex media,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snieder, Roel

    of the novel multi-component marine seismic data which have recently been available for offshore exploration to seismic imaging Advisor: Prof. Roel Snieder Committee Members: Prof. Thomas Furtak Prof. Yaoguo Li Prof on September 5, 2012 #12;#12;WAVE PROPAGATION IN COMPLEX MEDIA, SCATTERING THEORY, AND APPLICATION TO SEISMIC

  19. Optical Method for Detecting Shock Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Texas at Arlington, University of

    , and in detonation and combustion research. A new optical technique is developed which is able to resolve the shock light ray and the line normal to shock front = density = time interval between light pulses - Subscripts. Similarly, in detonation and combustion research, the speed of the propagating detonation wave or flame

  20. Wave propagation in the magnetic sun

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Hartlep; M. S. Miesch; N. N. Mansour

    2008-05-03

    This paper reports on efforts to simulate wave propagation in the solar interior. Presented is work on extending a numerical code for constant entropy acoustic waves in the absence of magnetic fields to the case where magnetic fields are present. A set of linearized magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) perturbation equations has been derived and implemented.

  1. Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

    2013-04-28

    A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

  2. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. D. McDonnell; N. Schunck; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. M. Wild; W. Nazarewicz

    2015-01-15

    Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

  3. Minimal position-velocity uncertainty wave packets in relativistic and non-relativistic quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Al-Hashimi, M.H. Wiese, U.-J.

    2009-12-15

    We consider wave packets of free particles with a general energy-momentum dispersion relation E(p). The spreading of the wave packet is determined by the velocity v={partial_derivative}{sub p}E. The position-velocity uncertainty relation {delta}x{delta}v{>=}1/2 |<{partial_derivative}{sub p}{sup 2}E>| is saturated by minimal uncertainty wave packets {phi}(p)=Aexp(-{alpha}E(p)+{beta}p). In addition to the standard minimal Gaussian wave packets corresponding to the non-relativistic dispersion relation E(p)=p{sup 2}/2m, analytic calculations are presented for the spreading of wave packets with minimal position-velocity uncertainty product for the lattice dispersion relation E(p)=-cos(pa)/ma{sup 2} as well as for the relativistic dispersion relation E(p)={radical}(p{sup 2}+m{sup 2}). The boost properties of moving relativistic wave packets as well as the propagation of wave packets in an expanding Universe are also discussed.

  4. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of atmospheric ozone photochemistry models. Final report, September 30, 1993--December 31, 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, G.P.

    1999-03-01

    The author has examined the kinetic reliability of ozone model predictions by computing direct first-order sensitivities of model species concentrations to input parameters: S{sub ij} = [dC{sub i}/C{sub i}]/[dk{sub j}/k{sub j}], where C{sub i} is the abundance of species i (e.g., ozone) and k{sub j} is the rate constant of step j (reaction, photolysis, or transport), for localized boxes from the LLNL 2-D diurnally averaged atmospheric model. An ozone sensitivity survey of boxes at altitudes of 10--55 km, 2--62N latitude, for spring, equinox, and winter is presented. Ozone sensitivities are used to evaluate the response of model predictions of ozone to input rate coefficient changes, to propagate laboratory rate uncertainties through the model, and to select processes and regions suited to more precise measurements. By including the local chemical feedbacks, the sensitivities quantify the important roles of oxygen and ozone photolysis, transport from the tropics, and the relation of key catalytic steps and cycles in regulating stratospheric ozone as a function of altitude, latitude, and season. A sensitivity-uncertainty analysis uses the sensitivity coefficients to propagate laboratory error bars in input photochemical parameters and estimate the net model uncertainties of predicted ozone in isolated boxes; it was applied to potential problems in the upper stratospheric ozone budget, and also highlights superior regions for model validation.

  5. U.S. Total Exports

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Cameron, LA Sabine Pass, LA Total to United Kingdom Freeport, TX Sabine Pass, LA LNG Exports from Cameron, LA LNG Exports from Kenai, AK LNG Exports from Freeport, TX LNG Exports...

  6. Uncertainty in atmospheric CO? predictions from a parametric uncertainty analysis of a global carbon cycle model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holian, Gary L.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Key uncertainties in the global carbon cycle are explored with a 2-D model for the oceanic carbon sink. By calibrating the key parameters of this ocean carbon sink model to widely referenced values, it produces an average ...

  7. MUJERES ( * ) TOTAL BIOLOGA 18 22

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Autonoma de Madrid, Universidad

    DE PROFESORADO Y EDUCACI�N CIENCIAS ECON�MICAS Y EMPRESARIALES Nº de tesis leídas y aprobadas por centro y departamento en el año 2010 CENTRO DEPARTAMENTO Nº TESIS CIENCIAS #12;ANATOMÍA PATOL�GICA 0 1 Y DE LA EDUCACI�N 0 2 PSICOLOGÍA SOCIAL Y METODOLOGÍA 3 8 TOTAL PSICOLOGÍA 11 26 TOTAL TESIS LEIDAS

  8. Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D'Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization: this includes the rationale adopted for each part of the nodalization, the user choices, and the systematic derivation and justification of any value present in the code input respect to the values as indicated in the RDS-facility and in the RDS-test. (authors)

  9. Total transmission and total reflection by zero index materials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Viet Cuong Nguyen; Lang Chen

    2010-07-01

    In this report, we achieved total transmission and reflection in a slab of zero index materials with defect(s). By controlling the defect's radius and dielectric constant, we can obtain total transmission and reflection of EM wave. The zero index materials, in this report, stand for materials with permittivity and permeability which are simultaneously equal to zero or so called matched impedance zero index materials. Along with theoretical calculations and simulation demonstrations, we also discuss about some possible applications for the proposed structure such as shielding or cloaking an object without restricting its view. We also suggest a way to control total transmission and reflection actively by using tunable refractive index materials such as liquid crystal and BST. The physics behind those phenomena is attributed to intrinsic properties of zero index materials: constant field inside zero index slab.

  10. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  11. SWEPP PAN assay system uncertainty analysis: Passive mode measurements of graphite waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, Woo Y.

    1997-07-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the U.S. Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Golden, Colorado. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. To this end a modified statistical sampling and verification approach has been developed to determine the total uncertainty of a PAN measurement. In this approach the total performance of the PAN nondestructive assay system is simulated using computer models of the assay system and the resultant output is compared with the known input to assess the total uncertainty. This paper is one of a series of reports quantifying the results of the uncertainty analysis of the PAN system measurements for specific waste types and measurement modes. In particular this report covers passive mode measurements of weapons grade plutonium-contaminated graphite molds contained in 208 liter drums (waste code 300). The validity of the simulation approach is verified by comparing simulated output against results from measurements using known plutonium sources and a surrogate graphite waste form drum. For actual graphite waste form conditions, a set of 50 cases covering a statistical sampling of the conditions exhibited in graphite wastes was compiled using a Latin hypercube statistical sampling approach.

  12. PROPAGATION OF SINGULARITIES FOR ROUGH METRICS HART F. SMITH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Hart F.

    PROPAGATION OF SINGULARITIES FOR ROUGH METRICS HART F. SMITH Abstract. We use a wave packet the Simons Foundation (# 266371 to Hart Smith). 1 #12;2 HART F. SMITH H¨ormander's theorem [9] on propagation

  13. General Properties and Termination Conditions for Soft Constraint Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rossi, Francesca

    General Properties and Termination Conditions for Soft Constraint Propagation S. Bistarelli (bista for its termination. 1. Introduction Soft constraints allow to model faithfully many real­life problems [14], probabilistic [10] and partial [11] constraints. The constraint propagation techniques usually

  14. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-09-03

    Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictions of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.

  15. Uncertainty in BWR power during ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    A study was undertaken to improve our understanding of BWR conditions following the closure of main steam isolation valves and the failure of reactor trip. Of particular interest was the power during the period when the core had reached a quasi-equilibrium condition with a natural circulation flow rate determined by the water level in the downcomer. Insights into the uncertainity in the calculation of this power with sophisticated computer codes were quantified using a simple model which relates power to the principal thermal-hydraulic variables and reactivity coefficients; the latter representing the link between the thermal-hydraulics and the neutronics. Assumptions regarding the uncertainty in these variables and coefficients were then used to determine the uncertainty in power.

  16. Method and apparatus for charged particle propagation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hershcovitch, A.

    1996-11-26

    A method and apparatus are provided for propagating charged particles from a vacuum to a higher pressure region. A generator includes an evacuated chamber having a gun for discharging a beam of charged particles such as an electron beam or ion beam. The beam is discharged through a beam exit in the chamber into a higher pressure region. A plasma interface is disposed at the beam exit and includes a plasma channel for bounding a plasma maintainable between a cathode and an anode disposed at opposite ends thereof. The plasma channel is coaxially aligned with the beam exit for propagating the beam from the chamber, through the plasma, and into the higher pressure region. The plasma is effective for pumping down the beam exit for preventing pressure increase in the chamber and provides magnetic focusing of the beam discharged into the higher pressure region 24. 7 figs.

  17. Light propagation in inhomogeneous and anisotropic cosmologies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fleury, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    The standard model of cosmology is based on the hypothesis that the Universe is spatially homogeneous and isotropic. When interpreting most observations, this cosmological principle is applied stricto sensu: the light emitted by distant sources is assumed to propagate through a Friedmann-Lema\\^itre spacetime. The main goal of the present thesis was to evaluate how reliable this assumption is, especially when small scales are at stake. After having reviewed the laws of geometric optics in curved spacetime, and the standard interpretation of cosmological observables, the dissertation reports a comprehensive analysis of light propagation in Swiss-cheese models, designed to capture the clumpy character of the Universe. The resulting impact on the interpretation of the Hubble diagram is quantified, and shown to be relatively small, thanks to the cosmological constant. When applied to current supernova data, the associated corrections tend however to improve the agreement between the cosmological parameters inferre...

  18. Information Propagation in Clustered Multilayer Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhuang, Yong

    2015-01-01

    In today's world, individuals interact with each other in more complicated patterns than ever. Some individuals engage through online social networks (e.g., Facebook, Twitter), while some communicate only through conventional ways (e.g., face-to-face). Therefore, understanding the dynamics of information propagation among humans calls for a multi-layer network model where an online social network is conjoined with a physical network. In this work, we initiate a study of information diffusion in a clustered multi-layer network model, where all constituent layers are random networks with high clustering. We assume that information propagates according to the SIR model and with different information transmissibility across the networks. We give results for the conditions, probability, and size of information epidemics, i.e., cases where information starts from a single individual and reaches a positive fraction of the population. We show that increasing the level of clustering in either one of the layers increas...

  19. Thermal hydraulic limits analysis for the MIT Research Reactor low enrichment uranium core conversion using statistical propagation of parametric uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chiang, Keng-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The MIT Research Reactor (MITR) is evaluating the conversion from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enrichment uranium (LEU) fuel. In addition to the fuel element re-design from 15 to 18 plates per element, a reactor ...

  20. Quark Propagator and Chiral Symmetry with String Tension

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anishetty, R; Anishetty, Ramesh; Kudtarkar, Santosh Kumar

    2003-01-01

    General properties of the light and heavy quark propagators have been investigated in the context of string tension interaction. Confinement, chiral symmetry breaking, spectral properties of the propagator are analytically studied and numerically validated. We show that the propagator is analytic in the infrared region even for massless quarks with a non zero radius of convergence. Emergence of more than one mass scale is exemplified. Massless limit of the quark propagator does exhibit critical behaviour.

  1. Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Somanath, Amith

    2010-01-01

    The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

  2. Depression during exacerbations in multiple sclerosis: the importance of uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kroencke, Dawn C.; Denney, Douglas R.; Lynch, Sharon G.

    2001-08-01

    or not they were currently experiencing an exacerbation of their symptoms); (b) their level of uncertainty concerning their illness, and (c) their strategies for coping with their illness. A current exacerbation in symptoms, greater uncertainty of illness...

  3. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  4. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

  5. Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium-Size Office Building Liping Wang, Paul Mathew, Xiufeng Pang Environmental Energy Technologies Division between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced

  6. Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

    2007-07-31

    It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

  7. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given 7 refs., 2 tabs.

  8. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-09-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.

  9. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (?15N and ?18O) but all methods testedmore »are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.« less

  10. Pulse Areas in Multi-Soliton Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elizabeth Groves; B. D. Clader; J. H. Eberly

    2008-11-12

    The prospect of self-consistent propagation of more than two pulses contemporaneously through multi-resonant media raises open questions: whether soliton solutions exist, and whether a useful generalization of two-level pulse Area can be found. We answer these questions positively for the case of four pulses interacting in combined V and Lambda fashion with an idealized pair of atomic D-lines.

  11. Experimental study of turbulent flame kernel propagation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mansour, Mohy [National Institute of Laser Enhanced Sciences, Cairo University, Giza (Egypt); Peters, Norbert; Schrader, Lars-Uve [Institute of Combustion Technology, Aachen (Germany)

    2008-07-15

    Flame kernels in spark ignited combustion systems dominate the flame propagation and combustion stability and performance. They are likely controlled by the spark energy, flow field and mixing field. The aim of the present work is to experimentally investigate the structure and propagation of the flame kernel in turbulent premixed methane flow using advanced laser-based techniques. The spark is generated using pulsed Nd:YAG laser with 20 mJ pulse energy in order to avoid the effect of the electrodes on the flame kernel structure and the variation of spark energy from shot-to-shot. Four flames have been investigated at equivalence ratios, {phi}{sub j}, of 0.8 and 1.0 and jet velocities, U{sub j}, of 6 and 12 m/s. A combined two-dimensional Rayleigh and LIPF-OH technique has been applied. The flame kernel structure has been collected at several time intervals from the laser ignition between 10 {mu}s and 2 ms. The data show that the flame kernel structure starts with spherical shape and changes gradually to peanut-like, then to mushroom-like and finally disturbed by the turbulence. The mushroom-like structure lasts longer in the stoichiometric and slower jet velocity. The growth rate of the average flame kernel radius is divided into two linear relations; the first one during the first 100 {mu}s is almost three times faster than that at the later stage between 100 and 2000 {mu}s. The flame propagation is slightly faster in leaner flames. The trends of the flame propagation, flame radius, flame cross-sectional area and mean flame temperature are related to the jet velocity and equivalence ratio. The relations obtained in the present work allow the prediction of any of these parameters at different conditions. (author)

  12. Use of Forward Sensitivity Analysis Method to Improve Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) Methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau; Nam T. Dinh

    2010-10-01

    Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology was developed in late 1980s by US NRC to systematically quantify reactor simulation uncertainty. Basing on CSAU methodology, Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methods have been developed and widely used for new reactor designs and existing LWRs power uprate. In spite of these successes, several aspects of CSAU have been criticized for further improvement: i.e., (1) subjective judgement in PIRT process; (2) high cost due to heavily relying large experimental database, needing many experts man-years work, and very high computational overhead; (3) mixing numerical errors with other uncertainties; (4) grid dependence and same numerical grids for both scaled experiments and real plants applications; (5) user effects; Although large amount of efforts have been used to improve CSAU methodology, the above issues still exist. With the effort to develop next generation safety analysis codes, new opportunities appear to take advantage of new numerical methods, better physical models, and modern uncertainty qualification methods. Forward sensitivity analysis (FSA) directly solves the PDEs for parameter sensitivities (defined as the differential of physical solution with respective to any constant parameter). When the parameter sensitivities are available in a new advanced system analysis code, CSAU could be significantly improved: (1) Quantifying numerical errors: New codes which are totally implicit and with higher order accuracy can run much faster with numerical errors quantified by FSA. (2) Quantitative PIRT (Q-PIRT) to reduce subjective judgement and improving efficiency: treat numerical errors as special sensitivities against other physical uncertainties; only parameters having large uncertainty effects on design criterions are considered. (3) Greatly reducing computational costs for uncertainty qualification by (a) choosing optimized time steps and spatial sizes; (b) using gradient information (sensitivity result) to reduce sampling number. (4) Allowing grid independence for scaled integral effect test (IET) simulation and real plant applications: (a) eliminate numerical uncertainty on scaling; (b) reduce experimental cost by allowing smaller scaled IET; (c) eliminate user effects. This paper will review the issues related to the current CSAU, introduce FSA, discuss a potential Q-PIRT process, and show simple examples to perform FSA. Finally, the general research direction and requirements to use FSA in a system analysis code will be discussed.

  13. Dynamic diagnostic and decision procedures under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baranov, V.V.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, we consider uncertainty that arises when the true state x {element_of} E is not accessible to direct observation and remains unknown. Instead, we observe some features {theta} {element_of} {Theta} that carry a certain information about the true state. This information is described by the conditional distribution P({Theta}{vert_bar}E), which we call the linkage distribution. Regarding this distribution we assume that it exists but is unknown. This leads to uncertainty with respect to states from E and the linkage distribution P({Theta}{vert_bar}E), which we denote by NEP. The substantive problem can be stated as follows: from observations of the features {theta}{element_of}{Theta} made at each time instant n = 1,2,...,recognize the state x {element_of} E, identify the linkage distribution P, and use the results of recognition and identification to choose a decision y {element_of} Y so that the decision process is optimal in some sense. State recognition is the subject of diagnostics. The uncertainty NEP thus generates a problem of diagnostics and dynamic decision making.

  14. Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2014-11-23

    We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

  15. Uncertainty and Complementarity Relations in Weak Measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arun Kumar Pati; Junde Wu

    2014-11-26

    We prove uncertainty relations that quantitatively express the impossibility of jointly sharp preparation of pre- and post-selected quantum states for measuring incompatible observables during the weak measurement. By defining a suitable operator whose average in the pre-selected quantum state gives the weak value, we show that one can have new uncertainty relations for variances of two such operators corresponding to two non-commuting observables. These generalize the recent stronger uncertainty relations that give non-trivial lower bounds for the sum of variances of two observables which fully capture the concept of incompatible observables. Furthermore, we show that weak values for two non-commuting projection operators obey a complementarity relation. Specifically, we show that for a pre-selected state if we measure a projector corresponding to an observable $A$ weakly followed by the strong measurement of another observable $B$ (for the post-selection) and, for the same pre-selected state we measure a projector corresponding to an observable $B$ weakly followed by the strong measurement of the observable $A$ (for the post-selection), then the product of these two weak values is always less than one. This shows that even though individually they are complex and can be large, their product is always bounded.

  16. Handwritten Digit Recognition with a Back-Propagation Network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parker, Gary B.

    Handwritten Digit Recognition with a Back-Propagation Network Y. Le Cun, B. Boser, J. S. Denker, D We present an application of back-propagation networks to hand- written digit recognition. Minimal. 1 INTRODUCTION The main point of this paper is to show that large back-propagation (BP) net- works

  17. Handwritten Digit Recognition with a BackPropagation Network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LeCun, Yann

    Handwritten Digit Recognition with a Back­Propagation Network Y. Le Cun, B. Boser, J. S. Denker, D We present an application of back­propagation networks to hand­ written digit recognition. Minimal. 1 INTRODUCTION The main point of this paper is to show that large back­propagation (BP) net­ works

  18. Radio Wave Propagation in Potato Fields John Thelen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langendoen, Koen

    Radio Wave Propagation in Potato Fields John Thelen Wageningen University Email: John has an important effect on the propagation of radio waves. The influence of the growth stage from 23 m to 10 m. Another important result is that radio waves propagate better in conditions

  19. Advances in total scattering analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Proffen, Thomas E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kim, Hyunjeong [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    In recent years the analysis of the total scattering pattern has become an invaluable tool to study disordered crystalline and nanocrystalline materials. Traditional crystallographic structure determination is based on Bragg intensities and yields the long range average atomic structure. By including diffuse scattering into the analysis, the local and medium range atomic structure can be unravelled. Here we give an overview of recent experimental advances, using X-rays as well as neutron scattering as well as current trends in modelling of total scattering data.

  20. Bayesiannetwork Confirmation of Software Testing Uncertainties Debra J. Richardson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ziv, Hadar

    Bayesian­network Confirmation of Software Testing Uncertainties Hadar Ziv Debra J. Richardson presentation of uncertainty in software testing. We then propose that a specific technique, known as Bayesian Belief Networks, be used to model software testing uncertainties. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian

  1. Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Faming

    Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks Xuesong Zhang,1 neural networks (BNNs) are powerful tools for providing reliable hydrologic prediction and quantifying of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  2. Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks Xuesong Zhang1-2607 Email: r-srinivasan@tamu.edu 1 #12;Abstract: Recent studies have shown that Bayesian Neural Networks of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  3. Aperture Photometry Uncertainties assuming Priors and Correlated Noise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masci, Frank

    1 Aperture Photometry Uncertainties assuming Priors and Correlated Noise F. Masci, version 2.0, 10 aperture photometry assuming (i) prior pixel-flux uncertainties are available for the image (e.g., computed photometry is being performed. One way to do this is to compare the uncertainties with the local RMS pixel

  4. UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gottgens, Hans

    UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES JOHAN F. GOTTGENS1,, BRIAN E by as much as ±48%. Uncertainty in paleoecological studies of mercury needs to be documented in order, paleoecology, sediment cores, uncertainty 1. Introduction Paleoecological studies of lakes, wetlands

  5. Uncertainty, Subjectivity, Trust and Risk: How It All Fits Together

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Střlen, Ketil

    Uncertainty, Subjectivity, Trust and Risk: How It All Fits Together Bjřrnar Solhaug1 and Ketil uncertainty, subjective, objective, trust, risk, trust management. 1 Aleatory Uncertainty vs. Epistemic be reduced by narrowing the interval and thereby making a more precise prediction. 2 Objective vs. Subjective

  6. Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andi Cucoanes; Pau Novella; Anatael Cabrera; Muriel Fallot; Anthony Onillon; Michel Obolensky; Frederic Yermia

    2015-01-02

    This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications on the global $\\theta_{13}$ knowledge today. First, Double Chooz, in its final configuration, is the only experiment benefiting from a negligible reactor flux error due to a $\\sim$90\\% geometrical suppression. Second, Daya Bay and RENO could benefit from their partial geometrical cancellation, yielding a potential $\\sim$50\\% error suppression, thus significantly improving the global $\\theta_{13}$ precision today. And third, we illustrate the rationale behind further error suppression upon the exploitation of the inter-reactor error correlations, so far neglected. So, our publication is a key step forward in the context of high precision neutrino reactor experiments providing insight on the suppression of their intrinsic flux error uncertainty, thus affecting past and current experimental results, as well as the design of future experiments.

  7. TOWARDS ESTIMATING TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    TOWARDS ESTIMATING TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE OF FORESTS IN MEXICO by Neil Adger Katrina Brown Raffaello OF FORESTS IN MEXICO by Neil Adger Katrina Brown Raffaello Cervigni Dominic Moran Centre for Social and SEDESOL for their assistance whilst in Mexico, and David Pearce and Kerry Turner for comments on earlier

  8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  9. Estimate of the theoretical uncertainty of the cross sections for nucleon knockout in neutral-current neutrino-oxygen interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Artur M. Ankowski; Maria B. Barbaro; Omar Benhar; Juan A. Caballero; Carlotta Giusti; Raúl González-Jiménez; Guillermo D. Megias; Andrea Meucci

    2015-06-08

    Free nucleons propagating in water are known to produce gamma rays, which form a background to the searches for diffuse supernova neutrinos and sterile neutrinos carried out with Cherenkov detectors. As a consequence, the process of nucleon knockout induced by neutral-current quasielastic interactions of atmospheric (anti)neutrinos with oxygen needs to be under control at the quantitative level in the background simulations of the ongoing and future experiments. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with the theoretical description of the nuclear cross sections, estimating it from the discrepancies between the predictions of different models.

  10. Estimate of the theoretical uncertainty of the cross sections for nucleon knockout in neutral-current neutrino-oxygen interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ankowski, Artur M; Benhar, Omar; Caballero, Juan A; Giusti, Carlotta; González-Jiménez, Raúl; Megias, Guillermo D; Meucci, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Free nucleons propagating in water are known to produce gamma rays, which form a background to the searches for diffuse supernova neutrinos and sterile neutrinos carried out with Cherenkov detectors. As a consequence, the process of nucleon knockout induced by neutral-current quasielastic interactions of atmospheric (anti)neutrinos with oxygen needs to be under control at the quantitative level in the background simulations of the ongoing and future experiments. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with the theoretical description of the nuclear cross sections, estimating it from the discrepancies between the predictions of different models.

  11. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  12. Measurement uncertainty in surface flatness measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. L. Thang

    2011-11-29

    Flatness of a plate is a parameter has been put under consideration for long time. Factors influencing the accuracy of this parameter have been recognized and examined carefully but placed scatterringly. Beside that those reports have not been always in harmonization with Guide for expression of uncertainty measurement (GUM). Furthermore, mathematical equations describing clearly the flatness measurement have not been seen in those reports also. We have collected those influencing factors for systematic reference purpose, re-written the equation describing the profile measurement of the plate topography, and proposed an equation for flatness determination. An illustrative numerical example will be also shown.

  13. Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio

    2014-07-01

    We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

  14. Characterizing Uncertainties in Ice Particle Size Distributions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 OutreachProductswsicloudwsiclouddenDVA N C E D BGene Network ShapingDate:Characterization ofArcticUncertainties in

  15. MUJERES ( * ) TOTAL BIOLOGA 10 19

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Autonoma de Madrid, Universidad

    mujeres que han leído tesis en la UAM en el año 2007 Fuente: Centro de Posgrado de la UAM, a 31 de Diciembre de 2007 FILOSOFÍA Y LETRAS MEDICINA PSICOLOGÍA TOTAL TESIS LEIDAS Y APROBADAS EN EL A�O 2007 EN LA UAM CIENCIAS CIENCIAS ECON�MICAS Y EMPRESARIALES DERECHO ESCUELA POLIT�CNICA SUPERIOR Nº de tesis

  16. Total Energy Outcome City Pilot

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCEDInstallers/ContractorsPhotovoltaicsState ofSavings forTitle XVIIof EnergyofTotal Energy

  17. Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Burr, Tom; Croft, Stephen; Jarman, Kenneth D.

    2015-09-05

    The various methods of nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) have applications in nuclear nonproliferation, including detection and identification of illicit SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at nuclear facilities for safeguards. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one way of expressing confidence in the assay result. Consequently, NDA specialists typically quantify total uncertainty in terms of “random” and “systematic” components, and then specify error bars for the total mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but it is recognized that greater rigor is needed andmore »achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we propose improvements over GUM for NDA by illustrating UQ challenges that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. A case study is presented using low-resolution NaI spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the U-235 mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the current American Society for Testing and Materials guide for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra from a NaI detector.« less

  18. Method and apparatus for charged particle propagation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hershcovitch, Ady (Mount Sinai, NY)

    1996-11-26

    A method and apparatus are provided for propagating charged particles from a vacuum to a higher pressure region. A generator 14,14b includes an evacuated chamber 16a,b having a gun 18,18b for discharging a beam of charged particles such as an electron beam 12 or ion beam 12b. The beam 12,12b is discharged through a beam exit 22 in the chamber 16a,b into a higher pressure region 24. A plasma interface 34 is disposed at the beam exit 22 and includes a plasma channel 38 for bounding a plasma 40 maintainable between a cathode 42 and an anode 44 disposed at opposite ends thereof. The plasma channel 38 is coaxially aligned with the beam exit 22 for propagating the beam 12,12b from the chamber 16a,b, through the plasma 40, and into the higher pressure region 24. The plasma 40 is effective for pumping down the beam exit 22 for preventing pressure increase in the chamber 16a,b, and provides magnetic focusing of the beam 12,12b discharged into the higher pressure region 24.

  19. Nonlinear Biochemical Signal Processing via Noise Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kyung Hyuk Kim; Hong Qian; Herbert M. Sauro

    2013-09-10

    Single-cell studies often show significant phenotypic variability due to the stochastic nature of intra-cellular biochemical reactions. When the numbers of molecules, e.g., transcription factors and regulatory enzymes, are in low abundance, fluctuations in biochemical activities become significant and such "noise" can propagate through regulatory cascades in terms of biochemical reaction networks. Here we develop an intuitive, yet fully quantitative method for analyzing how noise affects cellular phenotypes based on identifying a system's nonlinearities and noise propagations. We observe that such noise can simultaneously enhance sensitivities in one behavioral region while reducing sensitivities in another. Employing this novel phenomenon we designed three biochemical signal processing modules: (a) A gene regulatory network that acts as a concentration detector with both enhanced amplitude and sensitivity. (b) A non-cooperative positive feedback system, with a graded dose-response in the deterministic case, that serves as a bistable switch due to noise-induced bimodality. (c) A noise-induced linear amplifier for gene regulation that requires no feedback. The methods developed in the present work allow one to understand and engineer nonlinear biochemical signal processors based on fluctuation-induced phenotypes.

  20. Neutrino emission in the jet propagation process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, D.; Dai, Z. G.

    2014-07-20

    Relativistic jets are universal in long-duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) models. Before breaking out, they must propagate in the progenitor envelope along with a forward shock and a reverse shock forming at the jet head. Both electrons and protons will be accelerated by the shocks. High-energy neutrinos could be produced by these protons interacting with stellar materials and electron-radiating photons. The jet will probably be collimated, which may have a strong effect on the final neutrino flux. Under the assumption of a power-law stellar-envelope density profile ??r {sup –?} with index ?, we calculate the neutrino emission flux by these shocks for low-luminosity GRBs (LL-GRBs) and ultra-long GRBs (UL-GRBs) in different collimation regimes, using the jet propagation framework developed by Bromberg et al. We find that LL-GRBs and UL-GRBs are capable of producing detectable high-energy neutrinos up to ?PeV, from which the final neutrino spectrum can be obtained. Further, we conclude that a larger ? corresponds to greater neutrino flux at the high-energy end (?PeV) and to higher maximum neutrino energy as well. However, such differences are so small that it is not promising for us to be able to distinguish these in observations, given the energy resolution we have now.

  1. Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario

  2. Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties inUncertainties in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    costs and preferred technologies? #12;2 E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Focus on Innovation for technology for achieving climate change policy goals at the lowest cost, in conjunction with other mitigation1 Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties in

  3. Corner defects in almost planar interface propagation Defauts faibles en propagation d'interfaces planes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scheel, Arnd

    fronts in solid and gaseous combustion have stimulated a variety of different approaches to interface on the interface, to seemingly chaotic motion of the interface. In a slightly different context, front and pulse-Zhabotinsky reaction. Propagation and reflective or annihilation collision of 2-dimensional pulse trains has also been

  4. TotalView Training 2015

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-Inspired Solar FuelTechnologyTel:FebruaryEIA's Today8Topo II: AnUsersTotalView

  5. Total Adjusted Sales of Kerosene

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight Paths30,2,8, 2015End Use: Total

  6. Total Imports of Residual Fuel

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight Paths30,2,8,Product: Total CrudeMay-15

  7. Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giles, Mike

    repository and oil reservoir modelling Considerable uncertainty about porosity of rock Astronomy "Random handling uncertainty: uncertainty in modelling parameters uncertainty in geometry uncertainty in initial 30­31, 2013 4 / 41 #12;PDEs with Uncertainty Examples: Long-term climate modelling: Lots of sources

  8. Results for Phase I of the IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strydom, Gerhard; Bostelmann, Friederike; Yoon, Su Jong

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) has its own peculiarities, coated particle design, large graphite quantities, different materials and high temperatures that also require other simulation requirements. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the HTR-PM (INET, China). This report summarizes the contributions of the HTGR Methods Simulation group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) up to this point of the CRP. The activities at INL have been focused so far on creating the problem specifications for the prismatic design, as well as providing reference solutions for the exercises defined for Phase I. An overview is provided of the HTGR UAM objectives and scope, and the detailed specifications for Exercises I-1, I-2, I-3 and I-4 are also included here for completeness. The main focus of the report is the compilation and discussion of reference results for Phase I (i.e. for input parameters at their nominal or best-estimate values), which is defined as the first step of the uncertainty quantification process. These reference results can be used by other CRP participants for comparison with other codes or their own reference results. The status on the Monte Carlo modeling of the experimental VHTRC facility is also discussed. Reference results were obtained for the neutronics stand-alone cases (Ex. I-1 and Ex. I-2) using the (relatively new) Monte Carlo code Serpent, and comparisons were performed with the more established Monte Carlo codes MCNP and KENO-VI. For the thermal-fluids stand-alone cases (Ex. I-3 and I-4) the commercial CFD code CFX was utilized to obtain reference results that can be compared with lower fidelity tools.

  9. Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicles driving schedules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Center for Energy and Innovative Technologies; NEC Laboratories America Inc.; Cardoso, Goncalo; Stadler, Michael; Bozchalui, Mohammed C.; Sharma, Ratnesh; Marnay, Chris; Barbosa-Povoa, Ana; Ferrao, Paulo

    2013-10-27

    The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem.

  10. Uncertainty analysis and order-by-order optimization of chiral nuclear interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlsson, B D; Forssén, C; Strömberg, D Fahlin; Lilja, O; Lindby, M; Mattsson, B A; Wendt, K A

    2015-01-01

    Chiral effective field theory ($\\chi$EFT) provides a systematic approach to describe low-energy nuclear forces. Moreover, $\\chi$EFT is able to provide well-founded estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties although this unique advantage has not yet been fully exploited. We fill this gap by performing an optimization and statistical analysis of all the low-energy constants (LECs) up to next-to-next-to-leading order. We simultaneously fit to scattering and bound-state observables in the pion-nucleon, nucleon-nucleon, and few-nucleon sectors in order to utilize the full model capabilities of $\\chi$EFT. Finally, we demonstrate methods to propagate uncertainties to other observables, such that they can easily be adopted by future works. We employ mathematical optimization and implement automatic differentiation to attain efficient and machine-precise first- and second-order derivatives of the objective function with respect to the LECs. This is also vital for the regression analysis. We use power-count...

  11. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

  12. ENERGY CONTENT AND PROPAGATION IN TRANSVERSE SOLAR ATMOSPHERIC WAVES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, M.; Van Doorsselaere, T. [Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Mathematics Department, Celestijnenlaan 200B bus 2400, B-3001 Heverlee (Belgium); Soler, R. [Solar Physics Group, Departament de Fisica, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Verth, G., E-mail: tom.vandoorsselaere@wis.kuleuven.be [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, Hicks Building, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2013-05-10

    Recently, a significant amount of transverse wave energy has been estimated propagating along solar atmospheric magnetic fields. However, these estimates have been made with the classic bulk Alfven wave model which assumes a homogeneous plasma. In this paper, the kinetic, magnetic, and total energy densities and the flux of energy are computed for transverse MHD waves in one-dimensional cylindrical flux tube models with a piecewise constant or continuous radial density profile. There are fundamental deviations from the properties for classic bulk Alfven waves. (1) There is no local equipartition between kinetic and magnetic energy. (2) The flux of energy and the velocity of energy transfer have, in addition to a component parallel to the magnetic field, components in the planes normal to the magnetic field. (3) The energy densities and the flux of energy vary spatially, contrary to the case of classic bulk Alfven waves. This last property has the important consequence that the energy flux computed with the well known expression for bulk Alfven waves could overestimate the real flux by a factor in the range 10-50, depending on the flux tube equilibrium properties.

  13. A low order flow/acoustics interaction method for the prediction of sound propagation using 3D adaptive hybrid grids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kallinderis, Yannis; Vitsas, Panagiotis A.; Menounou, Penelope

    2012-07-15

    A low-order flow/acoustics interaction method for the prediction of sound propagation and diffraction in unsteady subsonic compressible flow using adaptive 3-D hybrid grids is investigated. The total field is decomposed into the flow field described by the Euler equations, and the acoustics part described by the Nonlinear Perturbation Equations. The method is shown capable of predicting monopole sound propagation, while employment of acoustics-guided adapted grid refinement improves the accuracy of capturing the acoustic field. Interaction of sound with solid boundaries is also examined in terms of reflection, and diffraction. Sound propagation through an unsteady flow field is examined using static and dynamic flow/acoustics coupling demonstrating the importance of the latter.

  14. The Propagation of Photons in the Dilute Ionized Gas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yijia Zheng

    2013-05-02

    The dilute ionized gas is very popular in the Universe. Usually only the Compton interactions, the "Sunyaev-Zel'dovich" effect, were considered while photons propagated in this medium. In this paper the "soft-photon process" is considered. Due to the soft photons emitted during the propagation of a photon in the dilute ionized gas, the main photon (propagating in the original direction) will be redshifted. The formula to calculate this redshift is derived.

  15. Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Nkei, Bertrand [ORNL; Newman, David E [University of Alaska

    2005-09-01

    We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

  16. Uncertainty quantification of CO? saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO? saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO? saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO? saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the priormore »information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO? saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO? saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO? saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO? saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO? saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a laptop or desktop PC.« less

  17. Uncertainty quantification of CO? saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO? saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO? saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO? saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the prior information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO? saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO? saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO? saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO? saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO? saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a laptop or desktop PC.

  18. Quantum Limits of Measurements and Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masanao Ozawa

    2015-05-19

    In this paper, we show how the Robertson uncertainty relation gives certain intrinsic quantum limits of measurements in the most general and rigorous mathematical treatment. A general lower bound for the product of the root-mean-square measurement errors arising in joint measurements of noncommuting observables is established. We give a rigorous condition for holding of the standard quantum limit (SQL) for repeated measurements, and prove that if a measuring instrument has no larger root-mean-square preparational error than the root-mean-square measurement errors then it obeys the SQL. As shown previously, we can even construct many linear models of position measurement which circumvent this condition for the SQL.

  19. Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

    2011-11-30

    In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

  20. Generation of multi-photon entanglement by propagation and detection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. Hossein-Nejad; R. Stock; D. F. V. James

    2009-03-02

    We investigate the change of entanglement of photons due to propagation. We find that post-selected entanglement in general varies by propagation and, as a consequence, states with maximum bi- and tri-partite entanglement can be generated from propagation of unentangled photons. We generalize the results to n photons and show that entangled states with permutation symmetry can be generated from propagation of unentangled states. Generation of n-photon GHZ states is discussed as an example of a class of states with the desired symmetry.

  1. Wave Energy Converter Effects on Nearshore Wave Propagation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Converter Effects on Nearshore Wave Propagation Jesse Roberts 1 , Grace Chang *2 , Craig Jones *3 Sandia National Laboratories 1515 Eubank SE, Albuquerque, NM 87123 USA 1...

  2. A high-order discontinuous Galerkin method for wave propagation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A high-order discontinuous Galerkin method for wave propagation through coupled elastic-acoustic media Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A high-order discontinuous...

  3. Modeling broadband poroelastic propagation using an asymptotic approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vasco, Donald W.

    2010-01-01

    propagation, the frequency dependence of a disturbance in alower frequencies the scale length of the disturbance willthe frequency dependence of an elas- tic disturbance (109)

  4. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  5. Pulse propagation in a hyper-lattice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joseph W. Dickey

    2009-07-21

    The classical dynamics and pulse propagation are presented for a series of lattice-like structures whose spatial dimensionality ranges from one to four: four representing a hyper lattice. The lattices are connected one-dimensional wave bearing systems of varying lengths and can illuminate some aspects of higher dimension structures. Short pulses are launched at an arbitrary point, reverberate throughout the entire structure, and detected at another point. Some aspects of increasing dimensionality are illustrated with particular emphasis on the transition from three to four spatial dimensions. In a hypothetical four dimension world where only three are observable, the classical conservation laws and causality do not hold. The lack of causality is illustrated at each step in dimensionality by showing the unexpected pulse returns from the next higher dimension.

  6. Epidemic Propagation In Overlaid Wireless Networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yanmaz, Evsen [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    Witb tbe emergence of computer worms tbat can spread over air interfaces, wireless ad boc and sensor networks can be vulnerable to node compromises even if the deployed network is not connected to the backbone. Depending on the physical topology of the wireless network, even a single infected node can compromise the whole network. In this work, epidemic (e.g., worm) propagation in a static wireless network is studied, where a number of inCected mobile nodes are injected over the existing network. It is shown that the epidemic spread threshold and size depend on the physical topology of the underlying static wireless network as well as the mobility model employed by the infected mobile nodes. More specifically, results show that in a Cully-connected static wirelessnctwork targeted attacks are more effective, wbereas Cor a random topology random attacks can be sufficient to compromise the whole network.

  7. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings* ... 1,602 1,397...

  8. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Energy Consumption Survey: Energy End-Use Consumption Tables Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All...

  9. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings ... 2,037...

  10. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings* ... 1,870 1,276...

  11. Webtrends Archives by Fiscal Year — EERE Totals

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Historical EERE office total reports include only Webtrends archives by fiscal year. EERE total reports dating after FY11 can be accessed in EERE's Google Analytics account.

  12. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Tables Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings ... 636 580 46 1 Q 114.0...

  13. Total quality management implementation guidelines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    These Guidelines were designed by the Energy Quality Council to help managers and supervisors in the Department of Energy Complex bring Total Quality Management to their organizations. Because the Department is composed of a rich mixture of diverse organizations, each with its own distinctive culture and quality history, these Guidelines are intended to be adapted by users to meet the particular needs of their organizations. For example, for organizations that are well along on their quality journeys and may already have achieved quality results, these Guidelines will provide a consistent methodology and terminology reference to foster their alignment with the overall Energy quality initiative. For organizations that are just beginning their quality journeys, these Guidelines will serve as a startup manual on quality principles applied in the Energy context.

  14. Planning Wireless Networks with Demand Uncertainty using Robust ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-03-04

    as OFDMA. Current methods for this task require a static model of the problem. However, uncertainty of data arises frequently in wireless networks, e. g., fluctuat-

  15. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01

    tax on microgrid combined heat and power adoption. JournalDG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heatUncertainty Keywords: Combined heat and power applications,

  16. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).

  17. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore »of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).« less

  18. Model simplification of chemical kinetic systems under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coles, Thomas Michael Kyte

    2011-01-01

    This thesis investigates the impact of uncertainty on the reduction and simplification of chemical kinetics mechanisms. Chemical kinetics simulations of complex fuels are very computationally expensive, especially when ...

  19. Decision making under epistemic uncertainty : an application to seismic design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agarwal, Anna

    2008-01-01

    The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations ...

  20. Addressing Uncertainty in Desigh Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilisti...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Tom Houston, Greg Mertz, Carl Costantino, Michael...

  1. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  2. Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra...

  3. Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedro Crespo Del Granado

    2015-01-14

    Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy ...

  4. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Talou, Patrick Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nazarewicz, Witold University of Tennessee, Knoxville,...

  5. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its...

  6. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  7. Impact of parton distribution function and {alpha}{sub s} uncertainties on Higgs boson production in gluon fusion at hadron colliders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demartin, Federico; Mariani, Elisa [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Forte, Stefano; Vicini, Alessandro [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Rojo, Juan [INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy)

    2010-07-01

    We present a systematic study of uncertainties due to parton distributions (PDFs) and the strong coupling on the gluon-fusion production cross section of the standard model Higgs at the Tevatron and LHC colliders. We compare procedures and results when three recent sets of PDFs are used, CTEQ6.6, MSTW08, and NNPDF1.2, and we discuss specifically the way PDF and strong coupling uncertainties are combined. We find that results obtained from different PDF sets are in reasonable agreement if a common value of the strong coupling is adopted. We show that the addition in quadrature of PDF and {alpha}{sub s} uncertainties provides an adequate approximation to the full result with exact error propagation. We discuss a simple recipe to determine a conservative PDF+{alpha}{sub s} uncertainty from available global parton sets, and we use it to estimate this uncertainty on the given process to be about 10% at the Tevatron and 5% at the LHC for a light Higgs.

  8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  9. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  10. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harrison, J.D.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  11. Total termination of term rewriting is undecidable

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Total termination of term rewriting is undecidable Hans Zantema Utrecht University, Department Usually termination of term rewriting systems (TRS's) is proved by means of a monotonic well­founded order. If this order is total on ground terms, the TRS is called totally terminating. In this paper we prove that total

  12. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk.

  13. Total-derivative supersymmetry breaking

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haba, Naoyuki; Uekusa, Nobuhiro

    2010-05-15

    On an interval compactification in supersymmetric theory, boundary conditions for bulk fields must be treated carefully. If they are taken arbitrarily following the requirement that a theory is supersymmetric, the conditions could give redundant constraints on the theory. We construct a supersymmetric action integral on an interval by introducing brane interactions with which total-derivative terms under the supersymmetry transformation become zero due to a cancellation. The variational principle leads equations of motion and also boundary conditions for bulk fields, which determine boundary values of bulk fields. By estimating mass spectrum, spontaneous supersymmetry breaking in this simple setup can be realized in a new framework. This supersymmetry breaking does not induce a massless R axion, which is favorable for phenomenology. It is worth noting that fermions in hyper-multiplet, gauge bosons, and the fifth-dimensional component of gauge bosons can have zero-modes (while the other components are all massive as Kaluza-Klein modes), which fits the gauge-Higgs unification scenarios.

  14. Prediction of Leakage Power Under Process Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sapatnekar, Sachin

    to further improve run-time efficiency. We show that the proposed methods are effective in predicting: Hongliang Chang (hchang@cadence.com), Cadence Design Systems, 555 River Oaks Pkwy, Bldg. 2, San Jose, CA design, and so that it is possible to effectively optimize the total power consumption of a chip

  15. Shock wave propagation in composites and active Vinamra Agrawal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyamasundar, R.K.

    Shock wave propagation in composites and active Vinamra Agrawal California Institute of Technology Under the application of high strain rate loading, like impact of a projectile on a target, shock waves travel through a material. These waves are characterized as a discontinuity propagating through

  16. Variational Structure of Inverse Problems in Wave Propagation and Vibration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Variational Structure of Inverse Problems in Wave Propagation and Vibration James G. Berryman in wave propagation (traveltime tomography) and two examples in vibration (the plucked string and free.'' For vibrating systems, the apparently very complex behavior of an excited string, drumhead, or the Earth can

  17. ON THE PROPAGATION PROPERTIES OF SURFACE V. JAK SI '

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of the radio waves around the earth surface. These are the electromagnetic waves that propagate alongON THE PROPAGATION PROPERTIES OF SURFACE WAVES V. JAK Ÿ SI ' C \\Lambda , S. MOLCHANOV y AND L. PASTUR z 1. Introduction. Surface waves were discovered by Rayleigh at the end of the last century [1

  18. DIRECTIONAL PROPAGATION CANCELLATION FOR ACOUSTIC COMMUNICATION ALONG THE DRILL STRING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DIRECTIONAL PROPAGATION CANCELLATION FOR ACOUSTIC COMMUNICATION ALONG THE DRILL STRING Sinan along the drill string to the surface. Normal drilling operations produce in-band acoustic noise at intensities comparable to the transducer output while lossy propagation through the drill string and surface

  19. Multilayer Network Model for Analysis and Management of Change Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    1 Multilayer Network Model for Analysis and Management of Change Propagation Michael C. Pasqual · Olivier L. de Weck Abstract A pervasive problem for engineering change management is the phenomenon and management of change propagation using the model. The repository includes a few novel tools and metrics, most

  20. Gravity waves excited by jets: Propagation versus generation R. Plougonven

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plougonven, Riwal

    Gravity waves excited by jets: Propagation versus generation R. Plougonven School of Mathematics imposed by the generation mechanism. In proceeding so, effects due to the propagation of the waves through in consequence that the gravity waves are generated in the jet-exit region. [4] To date, such arguments have

  1. Behavior Propagation in Cognitive Radio Networks: A Social Network Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qiu, Robert Caiming

    cliques when the spectrum occupancies change. The behavior dynamics have significant impacts on the perfor1 Behavior Propagation in Cognitive Radio Networks: A Social Network Approach Husheng Li, Ju Bin differential equation are used to explicitly describe the dynamics of behavior propagation. The analytic

  2. Computer Virus Propagation Models Giuseppe Serazzi and Stefano Zanero

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zanero, Stefano

    Computer Virus Propagation Models Giuseppe Serazzi and Stefano Zanero Dipartimento di Elettronica e.zanero@polimi.it Abstract. The availability of reliable models of computer virus propa- gation would prove useful. In this pa- per, we review the most popular models of virus propagation, analyzing the underlying assumptions

  3. Clonal Propagation of Eucalyptus by Cuttings in France1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clonal Propagation of Eucalyptus by Cuttings in France1 H. Chaperone2 Genus Eucalyptus is so broad with Eucalyptus but also with other species. The advantage of the propagation by cuttings depends, for Eucalyptus on Eucalyptus in California, June 14-16, 1983, Sacramento, California. 2Director of Association Foręt Cellulose

  4. COURSE SYLLABUS ECE 5010 Wireless Propagation and Remote Sensing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of electromagnetic wave propagation in the troposphere and ionosphere, and also investigate the fundamentals are prepared for the remaining subjects. All students should be familiar with basic electromagnetic theory, Introduction to Electromagnetic Wave Propagation, Artech House, 1991 Elachi and Van Zyl, Introduction

  5. Quantum Computers: Noise Propagation and Adversarial Noise Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kalai, Gil

    Quantum Computers: Noise Propagation and Adversarial Noise Models Gil Kalai Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Yale University April 21, 2009 Abstract In this paper we consider adversarial noise models." Detrimental noise is modeled after familiar properties of noise propagation. However, it can have various

  6. On the uniqueness of loopy belief propagation fixed points

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heskes, Tom

    those for convexity of the Bethe free energy. We compare them with (a strength­ ened version of algorithms as well as for other approximate free energies. 1 Introduction Loopy belief propagation is Pearl belief propagation correspond to extrema of the so­called Bethe free energy (Yedidia, 1 #12; Freeman

  7. Apparent superluminal behavior in wave propagation A. D. Jackson,1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lautrup, Benny

    of energy propagation, Sommerfeld and Brillouin understand- ably found the question of superluminal the efforts of Sommerfeld and Brillouin would seem to have settled the issue of true super- luminal propagation definitively, the situation is somewhat more subtle. Their work conclusively demonstrated

  8. Acoustic wave propagation in two-phase heterogeneous porous media

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. I. Osypik; N. I. Pushkina; Ya. M. Zhileikin

    2015-03-19

    The propagation of an acoustic wave through two-phase porous media with spatial variation in porosity is studied. The evolutionary wave equation is derived, and the propagation of an acoustic wave is numerically analyzed in application to marine sediments with various physical parameters.

  9. Enclosure 2 DOE's Position on Dose Rate "Measurement Uncertainty"

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    system. Therefore, some knowledge of the uncertainty is important in determining the overall uncertainty and that they be used within their intended measurement range. This practice is sufficient to satisfy the nuclear safety requirements associated with the management of the containers of waste prior to disposal. The 200 mrem

  10. Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lovejoy, Shaun

    Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights Daniel Schertzer Department, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Uncertainty and error growth are crosscutting geophysical extremes. The focus is now on time-space geophysical scaling behavior: their multifractality. It is found

  11. Holographic position uncertainty and the quantum-classical transition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. L. Herzenberg

    2010-04-16

    Arguments based on general principles of quantum mechanics have suggested that a minimum length associated with Planck-scale unification may in the context of the holographic principle entail a new kind of observable uncertainty in the transverse position of macroscopically separated objects. Here, we address potential implications of such a position uncertainty for establishing an additional threshold between quantum and classical behavior.

  12. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  13. Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    1 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Reservoir Simulation Solutions, Inc. SPE 102492 #12;2 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Outline Reservoir Simulation Uncertainty, Using Surrogate Reservoir Model #12;3 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Sources

  14. Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3 (1). pp. 1, 1­27, 2003 www.atmos-chem-phys.org/acp/3/1/ Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics UncertaintiesUncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere Article Published

  15. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta

    2008-08-06

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

  16. Representing Thermal Vibrations and Uncertainty in Molecular Surfaces

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varshney, Amitabh

    in a molecule is fuzzy because of its uncertainty in protein structure determination and thermal energy because of its thermal energy. Therefore, the smooth molecular surface will also vibrate. Also in proteinRepresenting Thermal Vibrations and Uncertainty in Molecular Surfaces Chang Ha Lee and Amitabh

  17. Energy Management Problems Under Uncertainties for Grid-Connected Microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Wei

    1 Energy Management Problems Under Uncertainties for Grid-Connected Microgrids : a Chance prob- lems under uncertainties for a grid-connected microgrid. The problems are motivated by practical microgrid problems such as peak power shaving and frequency regulation. The problems require constraints

  18. September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty This appendix deals with the representation. In the section on "Uncertainties," beginning on page P-18, it describes in detail how the regional portfolio of these files is a compressed file, L24X-DW02-P.zip, containing the workbook files that Appendix L uses

  19. An entropy measure of uncertainty in vote choiceq

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gill, Jeff

    An entropy measure of uncertainty in vote choiceq Jeff GillĂ University of California, Davis, Political Science, One Shield Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA Abstract We examine voters' uncertainty in the bill's language, and the bill is disingenuously entitled the ``California Civil Rights Act

  20. Utility Maximization under Model Uncertainty in Discrete Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nutz, Marcel

    Utility Maximization under Model Uncertainty in Discrete Time Marcel Nutz January 14, 2014 Abstract We give a general formulation of the utility maximization problem under nondominated model uncertainty in discrete time and show that an optimal portfolio exists for any utility function

  1. Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration -Paula Reimer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengun, Mehmet Haluk

    uncertainty · Estimated ± 1 - 2 (± 8-32 years) · Measured off-line ± 0.2 (± 2) - ok in gas counting systems.17 (lab error multiplier) #12;14C calibration uncertainties Animation: M. Blaauw #12;Constant initial 14C interpol. Too much weight on individual dates? #12;Which age-depth model? 800 cm core 9 14 C dates

  2. Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    1 Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations Vijay Gupta1 of uncertainty and complex fiscal rules in the development planning of offshore oil and gas fields which involve, Offshore Oil and Gas, Multistage Stochastic, Endogenous, Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) 1

  3. Closure for Production Planning under Power Uncertainty Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Closure for Production Planning under Power Uncertainty Project Lehigh University Pietro Belotti C the power is recovered Production occurs at reduced rate The New Uncertainty Set Requires more binary¸ agri Latifoglu Fay Li Larry Snyder Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Jim Hutton Peter Connard September

  4. Filament Estimation and Uncertainty Measures Yen-Chi Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Filament Estimation and Uncertainty Measures Yen-Chi Chen Larry Wasserman Christopher Genovese Mellon University April 21, 2014 1 / 39 #12;Outline Introduction to Filaments Filament Estimation Uncertainty Measures Future Work 2 / 39 #12;Introduction Outline Introduction to Filaments Filament Estimation

  5. Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Sharon J.

    Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

  6. A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Ken

    A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang. This method often undervalues a mining project since it ignores future price uncertainty and does not allow on metal price. This paper also demonstrates that the "reactive" approach can estimate the mine project

  7. Treatment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Planning 1 Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    attribute to lie. For example, we could specify the price of natural gas in one of the following ways: #12 with time. #12;3 Figure 2: Specification of uncertainty in natural gas price Aside: We may also apply in this figure how (a) the expected price will increase with time, and (b) the uncertainty will also increase

  8. Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LBNL-5096E Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated of California. #12;Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR

  9. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

  10. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Křrnřv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Mechanical Surface Waves Accompany Action Potential Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmed El Hady; Benjamin B. Machta

    2014-10-05

    Many studies have shown that a mechanical displacement of the axonal membrane accompanies the electrical pulse defining the Action Potential (AP). Despite a large and diverse body of experimental evidence, there is no theoretical consensus either for the physical basis of this mechanical wave nor its interdependence with the electrical signal. In this manuscript we present a model for these mechanical displacements as arising from the driving of surface wave modes in which potential energy is stored in elastic properties of the neuronal membrane and cytoskeleton while kinetic energy is carried by the axoplasmic fluid. In our model these surface waves are driven by the traveling wave of electrical depolarization that characterizes the AP, altering the compressive electrostatic forces across the membrane as it passes. This driving leads to co-propagating mechanical displacements, which we term Action Waves (AWs). Our model for these AWs allows us to predict, in terms of elastic constants, axon radius and axoplasmic density and viscosity, the shape of the AW that should accompany any traveling wave of voltage, including the AP predicted by the Hodgkin and Huxley (HH) equations. We show that our model makes predictions that are in agreement with results in experimental systems including the garfish olfactory nerve and the squid giant axon. We expect our model to serve as a framework for understanding the physical origins and possible functional roles of these AWs in neurobiology.

  13. Effect of Resolution on Propagating Detonation Wave

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menikoff, Ralph

    2014-07-10

    Simulations of the cylinder test are used to illustrate the effect of mesh resolution on a propagating detonation wave. For this study we use the xRage code with the SURF burn model for PBX 9501. The adaptive mesh capability of xRage is used to vary the resolution of the reaction zone. We focus on two key properties: the detonation speed and the cylinder wall velocity. The latter is related to the release isentrope behind the detonation wave. As the reaction zone is refined (2 to 15 cells for cell size of 62 to 8?m), both the detonation speed and final wall velocity change by a small amount; less than 1 per cent. The detonation speed decreases with coarser resolution. Even when the reaction zone is grossly under-resolved (cell size twice the reaction-zone width of the burn model) the wall velocity is within a per cent and the detonation speed is low by only 2 per cent.

  14. Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perkó, Zoltán Gilli, Luca Lathouwers, Danny Kloosterman, Jan Leen

    2014-03-01

    The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (15–20), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  16. Total cost model for making sourcing decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morita, Mark, M.B.A. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2007-01-01

    This thesis develops a total cost model based on the work done during a six month internship with ABB. In order to help ABB better focus on low cost country sourcing, a total cost model was developed for sourcing decisions. ...

  17. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  18. Photon propagation in noncommutative QED with constant external field

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. Fresneda; D. M. Gitman; A. E. Shabad

    2015-01-20

    We find dispersion laws for the photon propagating in the presence of mutually orthogonal constant external electric and magnetic fields in the context of the $\\theta $-expanded noncommutative QED. We show that there is no birefringence to the first order in the noncommutativity parameter $% \\theta .$ By analyzing the group velocities of the photon eigenmodes we show that there occurs superluminal propagation for any direction. This phenomenon depends on the mutual orientation of the external electromagnetic fields and the noncommutativity vector. We argue that the propagation of signals with superluminal group velocity violates causality in spite of the fact that the noncommutative theory is not Lorentz-invariant and speculate about possible workarounds.

  19. Comparison of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous CFD Fuel Models for Phase I of the IAEA CRP on HTR Uncertainties Benchmark

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Su-Jong Yoon

    2014-04-01

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) evaluation of homogeneous and heterogeneous fuel models was performed as part of the Phase I calculations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinate Research Program (CRP) on High Temperature Reactor (HTR) Uncertainties in Modeling (UAM). This study was focused on the nominal localized stand-alone fuel thermal response, as defined in Ex. I-3 and I-4 of the HTR UAM. The aim of the stand-alone thermal unit-cell simulation is to isolate the effect of material and boundary input uncertainties on a very simplified problem, before propagation of these uncertainties are performed in subsequent coupled neutronics/thermal fluids phases on the benchmark. In many of the previous studies for high temperature gas cooled reactors, the volume-averaged homogeneous mixture model of a single fuel compact has been applied. In the homogeneous model, the Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles in the fuel compact were not modeled directly and an effective thermal conductivity was employed for the thermo-physical properties of the fuel compact. On the contrary, in the heterogeneous model, the uranium carbide (UCO), inner and outer pyrolytic carbon (IPyC/OPyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) layers of the TRISO fuel particles are explicitly modeled. The fuel compact is modeled as a heterogeneous mixture of TRISO fuel kernels embedded in H-451 matrix graphite. In this study, a steady-state and transient CFD simulations were performed with both homogeneous and heterogeneous models to compare the thermal characteristics. The nominal values of the input parameters are used for this CFD analysis. In a future study, the effects of input uncertainties in the material properties and boundary parameters will be investigated and reported.

  20. Ocean acoustic wave propagation and ray method correspondence: Internal wave fine structure

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tomsovic, Steve

    Ocean acoustic wave propagation and ray method correspondence: Internal wave fine structure 2004 Acoustic wave fields propagating long ranges through the ocean are refracted As acoustic waves propagate long ranges through the deep ocean, they are refracted by inhomogeneities

  1. Initiation propagation and termination of elastodynamic ruptures associated with segmentation of faults and shaking

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shaw, Bruce E.

    Initiation propagation and termination of elastodynamic ruptures associated with segmentation the initiation, propagation, and termination of ruptures and their relationship to fault geometry and shaking of terminations near fault ends; and persistent propagation directivity effects. Taking advantage of long

  2. Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation Ruth A. Harris

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Day, Steven M.

    Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction Ruth A. Harris U) earthquake rupture propagation direction can be predicted from the material contrast, and 2) earthquake (2005), Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction, Geophys. Res. Lett

  3. Total System Performance Assessment Peer Review Panel

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Peer Review Panel for predicting the performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain.

  4. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  5. A recipe for EFT uncertainty quantification in nuclear physics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. J. Furnstahl; D. R. Phillips; S. Wesolowski

    2014-12-16

    The application of effective field theory (EFT) methods to nuclear systems provides the opportunity to rigorously estimate the uncertainties originating in the nuclear Hamiltonian. Yet this is just one source of uncertainty in the observables predicted by calculations based on nuclear EFTs. We discuss the goals of uncertainty quantification in such calculations and outline a recipe to obtain statistically meaningful error bars for their predictions. We argue that the different sources of theory error can be accounted for within a Bayesian framework, as we illustrate using a toy model.

  6. 8, 31433162, 2008 Total ozone over

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ACPD 8, 3143­3162, 2008 Total ozone over oceanic regions M. C. R. Kalapureddy et al. Title Page Chemistry and Physics Discussions Total column ozone variations over oceanic region around Indian sub­3162, 2008 Total ozone over oceanic regions M. C. R. Kalapureddy et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

  7. 5, 1133111375, 2005 NH total ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ACPD 5, 11331­11375, 2005 NH total ozone increase S. Dhomse et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction On the possible causes of recent increases in NH total ozone from a statistical analysis of satellite data from License. 11331 #12;ACPD 5, 11331­11375, 2005 NH total ozone increase S. Dhomse et al. Title Page Abstract

  8. 6, 39133943, 2006 Svalbard total ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    ACPD 6, 3913­3943, 2006 Svalbard total ozone C. Vogler et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Discussions Re-evaluation of the 1950­1962 total ozone record from Longyearbyen, Svalbard C. Vogler 1 , S. Br total ozone C. Vogler et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back

  9. Total Algorithms \\Lambda Gerard Tel y

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Total Algorithms \\Lambda Gerard Tel y Department of Computer Science, University of Utrecht, P and February 1993 Abstract We define the notion of total algorithms for networks of processes. A total algorithm enforces that a ``decision'' is taken by a subset of the processes, and that participation of all

  10. Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies Article Published Version Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. (2003) Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies. Geophysical Research persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies Vitali E. Fioletov Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto

  11. The Harmonic Oscillator and the Uncertainty Principle In atomic units the wave function in coordinate space for an harmonic oscillator with reduced mass, ,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rioux, Frank

    The Harmonic Oscillator and the Uncertainty Principle In atomic units the wave function in coordinate space for an harmonic oscillator with reduced mass, , equal to one and force constant k is given occurs in the simple harmonic oscillator. The classical turning point is that position at which the total

  12. Covariant energy–momentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooperstock, F.I.; Dupre, M.J.

    2013-12-15

    We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energy–momentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum. -- Highlights: •We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. •Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energy–momentum. •Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. •New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. •Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum in strong gravity extreme.

  13. The Uncertainty Principle in Software Engineering Hadar Ziv Debra J. Richardson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ziv, Hadar

    ­ plore in detail uncertainty in software testing, includ­ ing test planning, test enactment, error principles, software testing, uncertainty mod­ eling, Bayesian networks INTRODUCTION Today's software), followed by more detailed expositions of uncertainty in software testing, including test planning, test

  14. Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics with application to remote sensing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aires, Filipe

    Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics with application to remote sensing for many inversion problems in remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: remote sensing, uncertainty, neural

  15. In vitro propagation of Quercus shumardii Buckl. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bennett, Lisa Kay

    1985-01-01

    with 20 g/liter sucrose. Cultures were maintained at 45 uEm with a 16 hour photoperiod at 26 C. 0 BA was more effective than 2iP for the induction of axillary bud break. Increasing the BA concentration increased total shoot number but a supra... subcultured on WPN with 2. 0 mg/liter BA, 0. 5 mg/liter IBA, and 1. 0 mg/liter GA and produced 6. 2 shoots in six weeks. In vivo rooting of 732 was obtained when shoots dipped in 0. 5 g/liter IBA for 15 minutes. Rooted successfully acclimatized...

  16. LARGE-SCALE CORONAL PROPAGATING FRONTS IN SOLAR ERUPTIONS AS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    LARGE-SCALE CORONAL PROPAGATING FRONTS IN SOLAR ERUPTIONS AS OBSERVED BY THE ATMOSPHERIC IMAGING ASSEMBLY ON BOARD THE SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY-AN ENSEMBLE STUDY Re-direct...

  17. Modelling the Propagation of Forward and Opposed Smouldering Combustion 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rein, Guillermo; Torero, Jose L; Fernandez-Pello, Carlos

    A computational study has been carried out to investigate smouldering ignition and propagation in polyurethane foam. The one-dimensional, transient, governing equations for smouldering combustion in a porous fuel are ...

  18. Multilayer network modeling of change propagation for engineering change management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pasqual, Michael C

    2010-01-01

    Engineering change management is a critical and challenging process within product development. One pervasive source of difficulty for this process is the phenomenon of change propagation, by which a change to one part or ...

  19. Inter-sensor propagation delay estimation using sources of opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vincent, Rémy; Michel, Olivier; Lacoume, Jean-Louis

    2015-01-01

    Propagation delays are intensively used for Structural Health Monitoring or Sensor Network Localization. In this paper, we study the performances of acoustic propagation delay estimation between two sensors, using sources of opportunity only. Such sources are defined as being uncontrolled by the user (activation time, location, spectral content in time and space), thus preventing the direct estimation with classical active approaches, such as TDOA, RSSI and AOA. Observation models are extended from the literature to account for the spectral characteristics of the sources in this passive context and we show how time-filtered sources of opportunity impact the retrieval of the propagation delay between two sensors. A geometrical analogy is then proposed that leads to a lower bound on the variance of the propagation delay estimation that accounts for both the temporal and the spatial properties of the sources field.

  20. X-Ray Propagation in Tapered Waveguides: Simulation and Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peinke, Joachim

    [1,2]. X-ray waveguides (WG) have been designed and fabricated as planar layered systems (1D-WG) [3. The propagation in the stuctures is studied by numerical solution of the parabolic wave equation (PWE), as used