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Sample records for total propagated uncertainty

  1. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional Theory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional ...

  2. Efficient uncertainty propagation for network multiphysics systems.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: Efficient uncertainty propagation for network multiphysics systems. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Efficient uncertainty propagation for network multiphysics systems. Authors: Phipps, Eric T. ; Wildey, Timothy Michael ; Constantine, Paul G. Publication Date: 2013-01-01 OSTI Identifier: 1063360 Report Number(s): SAND2013-0423J DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Journal Article Resource Relation: Journal Name:

  3. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Theory (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional Theory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional Theory Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and superheavy elements, or to describe the structure of nuclei far from stability. While on-going eff orts seek to better root

  4. TOTAL MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN HOLDUP MEASUREMENTS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KEELE, B.D.

    2007-07-05

    An approach to determine the total measurement uncertainty (TMU) associated with Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH) [1,2,3] measurements was developed and implemented in 2004 and 2005 [4]. This paper describes a condensed version of the TMU calculational model, including recent developments. Recent modifications to the TMU calculation model include a change in the attenuation uncertainty, clarifying the definition of the forward background uncertainty, reducing conservatism in the random uncertainty by selecting either a propagation of counting statistics or the standard deviation of the mean, and considering uncertainty in the width and height as a part of the self attenuation uncertainty. In addition, a detection limit is calculated for point sources using equations derived from summary equations contained in Chapter 20 of MARLAP [5]. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 2007-1 to the Secretary of Energy identified a lack of requirements and a lack of standardization for performing measurements across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex. The DNFSB also recommended that guidance be developed for a consistent application of uncertainty values. As such, the recent modifications to the TMU calculational model described in this paper have not yet been implemented. The Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) is continuing to perform uncertainty calculations as per Reference 4. Publication at this time is so that these concepts can be considered in developing a consensus methodology across the complex.

  5. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Díez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martínez, J.S.

    2015-01-15

    Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties.

  6. Total Measurement Uncertainty for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Segmented Gamma Scan Assay System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    WESTSIK, G.A.

    2001-06-06

    This report presents the results of an evaluation of the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for the Canberra manufactured Segmented Gamma Scanner Assay System (SGSAS) as employed at the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). In this document, TMU embodies the combined uncertainties due to all of the individual random and systematic sources of measurement uncertainty. It includes uncertainties arising from corrections and factors applied to the analysis of transuranic waste to compensate for inhomogeneities and interferences from the waste matrix and radioactive components. These include uncertainty components for any assumptions contained in the calibration of the system or computation of the data. Uncertainties are propagated at 1 sigma. The final total measurement uncertainty value is reported at the 95% confidence level. The SGSAS is a gamma assay system that is used to assay plutonium and uranium waste. The SGSAS system can be used in a stand-alone mode to perform the NDA characterization of a container, particularly for low to medium density (0-2.5 g/cc) container matrices. The SGSAS system provides a full gamma characterization of the container content. This document is an edited version of the Rocky Flats TMU Report for the Can Scan Segment Gamma Scanners, which are in use for the plutonium residues projects at the Rocky Flats plant. The can scan segmented gamma scanners at Rocky Flats are the same design as the PFP SGSAS system and use the same software (with the exception of the plutonium isotopics software). Therefore, all performance characteristics are expected to be similar. Modifications in this document reflect minor differences in the system configuration, container packaging, calibration technique, etc. These results are supported by the Quality Assurance Objective (QAO) counts, safeguards test data, calibration data, etc. for the PFP SGSAS system. Other parts of the TMU analysis utilize various modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) and In Situ Object Counting Software (ISOCS).

  7. A simplified analysis of uncertainty propagation in inherently controlled ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wade, D.C.

    1987-01-01

    The quasi static approach can be used to provide useful insight concerning the propagation of uncertainties in the inherent response to ATWS events. At issue is how uncertainties in the reactivity coefficients and in the thermal-hydraulics and materials properties propagate to yield uncertainties in the asymptotic temperatures attained upon inherent shutdown. The basic notion to be quantified is that many of the same physical phenomena contribute to both the reactivity increase of power reduction and the reactivity decrease of core temperature rise. Since these reactivities cancel by definition, a good deal of uncertainty cancellation must also occur of necessity. For example, if the Doppler coefficient is overpredicted, too large a positive reactivity insertion is predicted upon power reduction and collapse of the ..delta..T across the fuel pin. However, too large a negative reactivity is also predicted upon the compensating increase in the isothermal core average temperature - which includes the fuel Doppler effect.

  8. Propagation of Isotopic Bias and Uncertainty to Criticality Safety Analyses of PWR Waste Packages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radulescu, Georgeta

    2010-06-01

    Burnup credit methodology is economically advantageous because significantly higher loading capacity may be achieved for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks based on this methodology as compared to the loading capacity based on a fresh fuel assumption. However, the criticality safety analysis for establishing the loading curve based on burnup credit becomes increasingly complex as more parameters accounting for spent fuel isotopic compositions are introduced to the safety analysis. The safety analysis requires validation of both depletion and criticality calculation methods. Validation of a neutronic-depletion code consists of quantifying the bias and the uncertainty associated with the bias in predicted SNF compositions caused by cross-section data uncertainty and by approximations in the calculational method. The validation is based on comparison between radiochemical assay (RCA) data and calculated isotopic concentrations for fuel samples representative of SNF inventory. The criticality analysis methodology for commercial SNF disposal allows burnup credit for 14 actinides and 15 fission product isotopes in SNF compositions. The neutronic-depletion method for disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit is the two-dimensional (2-D) depletion sequence TRITON (Transport Rigor Implemented with Time-dependent Operation for Neutronic depletion)/NEWT (New ESC-based Weighting Transport code) and the 44GROUPNDF5 crosssection library in the Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE 5.1) code system. The SCALE 44GROUPNDF5 cross section library is based on the Evaluated Nuclear Data File/B Version V (ENDF/B-V) library. The criticality calculation code for disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit is General Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) Transport Code. The purpose of this calculation report is to determine the bias on the calculated effective neutron multiplication factor, k{sub eff}, due to the bias and bias uncertainty associated with predicted spent fuel compositions (i.e., determine the penalty in reactivity due to isotopic composition bias and uncertainty) for use in disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit. The method used in this calculation to propagate the isotopic bias and bias-uncertainty values to k{sub eff} is the Monte Carlo uncertainty sampling method. The development of this report is consistent with 'Test Plan for: Isotopic Validation for Postclosure Criticality of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel'. This calculation report has been developed in support of burnup credit activities for the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and provides a methodology that can be applied to other criticality safety applications employing burnup credit.

  9. Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for Nondestructive Assay of Transuranic (TRU) Waste at the WRAP Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CANTALOUB, M.G.

    2002-01-02

    The Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) facility, located on the Hanford Site in southeast Washington, is a key link in the certification of Hanford's transuranic (TRU) waste for shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Waste characterization is one of the vital functions performed at WRAP, and nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement of TRU waste containers is one of the methods used for waste characterization. Various programs exist to ensure the validity of waste characterization data; all of these cite the need for clearly defied knowledge of the uncertainties associated with any measurements performed. All measurements have an inherent uncertainty associated with them The combined effect of all uncertainties associated with a measurement is referred to as the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU). The NDA measurement uncertainties can be numerous and complex. In addition to system-induced measurement uncertainty, other factors contribute to the TMU, each associated with a particular measurement. The NDA measurements at WRAP are based on processes (radioactive decay and induced fission) which are statistical in nature. As a result, the proper statistical summation of the various uncertainty components is essential. This report examines the contributing factors to NDA measurement uncertainty at WRAP. The significance of each factor to the TMU is analyzed, and a final method is given for determining the TMU for NDA measurements at WRAP. A brief description of the data flow paths for the analytical process is also included in this report. As more data becomes available, and WRAP gains in operational experience, this report will be reviewed semi-annually and updated as necessary.

  10. The Multi-Step CADIS method for shutdown dose rate calculations and uncertainty propagation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ibrahim, Ahmad M.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Grove, Robert E.; Peterson, Joshua L.; Johnson, Seth R.

    2015-12-01

    Shutdown dose rate (SDDR) analysis requires (a) a neutron transport calculation to estimate neutron flux fields, (b) an activation calculation to compute radionuclide inventories and associated photon sources, and (c) a photon transport calculation to estimate final SDDR. In some applications, accurate full-scale Monte Carlo (MC) SDDR simulations are needed for very large systems with massive amounts of shielding materials. However, these simulations are impractical because calculation of space- and energy-dependent neutron fluxes throughout the structural materials is needed to estimate distribution of radioisotopes causing the SDDR. Biasing the neutron MC calculation using an importance function is not simple because it is difficult to explicitly express the response function, which depends on subsequent computational steps. Furthermore, the typical SDDR calculations do not consider how uncertainties in MC neutron calculation impact SDDR uncertainty, even though MC neutron calculation uncertainties usually dominate SDDR uncertainty.

  11. The Multi-Step CADIS method for shutdown dose rate calculations and uncertainty propagation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ibrahim, Ahmad M.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Grove, Robert E.; Peterson, Joshua L.; Johnson, Seth R.

    2015-12-01

    Shutdown dose rate (SDDR) analysis requires (a) a neutron transport calculation to estimate neutron flux fields, (b) an activation calculation to compute radionuclide inventories and associated photon sources, and (c) a photon transport calculation to estimate final SDDR. In some applications, accurate full-scale Monte Carlo (MC) SDDR simulations are needed for very large systems with massive amounts of shielding materials. However, these simulations are impractical because calculation of space- and energy-dependent neutron fluxes throughout the structural materials is needed to estimate distribution of radioisotopes causing the SDDR. Biasing the neutron MC calculation using an importance function is not simple becausemore » it is difficult to explicitly express the response function, which depends on subsequent computational steps. Furthermore, the typical SDDR calculations do not consider how uncertainties in MC neutron calculation impact SDDR uncertainty, even though MC neutron calculation uncertainties usually dominate SDDR uncertainty.« less

  12. Calibration and Forward Uncertainty Propagation for Large-eddy Simulations of Engineering Flows

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, Jeremy Alan; Blaylock, Myra L.; Domino, Stefan P.; Hewson, John C.; Kumar, Pritvi Raj; Ling, Julia; Najm, Habib N.; Ruiz, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stewart, Alessia; Wagner, Gregory

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this work is to investigate the efficacy of using calibration strategies from Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to determine model coefficients for LES. As the target methods are for engineering LES, uncertainty from numerical aspects of the model must also be quantified. 15 The ultimate goal of this research thread is to generate a cost versus accuracy curve for LES such that the cost could be minimized given an accuracy prescribed by an engineering need. Realization of this goal would enable LES to serve as a predictive simulation tool within the engineering design process.

  13. Error propagation equations for estimating the uncertainty in high-speed wind tunnel test results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-07-01

    Error propagation equations, based on the Taylor series model, are derived for the nondimensional ratios and coefficients most often encountered in high-speed wind tunnel testing. These include pressure ratio and coefficient, static force and moment coefficients, dynamic stability coefficients, and calibration Mach number. The error equations contain partial derivatives, denoted as sensitivity coefficients, which define the influence of free-steam Mach number, M{infinity}, on various aerodynamic ratios. To facilitate use of the error equations, sensitivity coefficients are derived and evaluated for five fundamental aerodynamic ratios which relate free-steam test conditions to a reference condition.

  14. Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

  15. Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Cell shipments Total Inventory, start-of-year 328,658 Manufactured during reporting year ... Table 5. Source and disposition of photovoltaic cell shipments, 2013 (peak kilowatts) ...

  16. Total............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total................................................................... 111.1 2,033 1,618 1,031 791 630 401 Total Floorspace (Square Feet) Fewer than 500............................................... 3.2 357 336 113 188 177 59 500 to 999....................................................... 23.8 733 667 308 343 312 144 1,000 to 1,499................................................. 20.8 1,157 1,086 625 435 409 235 1,500 to 1,999................................................. 15.4 1,592

  17. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    14.7 7.4 12.5 12.5 18.9 18.6 17.3 9.2 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500...... 3.2 0.7 Q 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 Q 500 to ...

  18. Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Product: Total Crude Oil Liquefied Petroleum Gases Propane/Propylene Normal Butane/Butylene Other Liquids Oxygenates Fuel Ethanol MTBE Other Oxygenates Biomass-based Diesel Other Renewable Diesel Fuel Other Renewable Fuels Gasoline Blending Components Petroleum Products Finished Motor Gasoline Reformulated Gasoline Conventional Gasoline Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Kerosene Distillate Fuel Oil Distillate Fuel Oil, 15 ppm Sulfur and Under Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 ppm to 500 ppm Sulfur

  19. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . 111.1 20.6 15.1 5.5 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 4.6 3.6 1.1 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 2.8 2.2 0.6 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 1.9 1.4 0.5 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 2.3 1.7 0.5 2,500 to

  20. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5.6 17.7 7.9 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 0.5 0.3 Q 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 3.9 2.4 1.5 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 4.4 3.2 1.2 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 3.5 2.4 1.1 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 3.2 2.1 1.1 2,500 to

  1. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0.7 21.7 6.9 12.1 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 0.9 0.6 Q Q 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 9.0 4.2 1.5 3.2 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 8.6 4.7 1.5 2.5 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 6.0 2.9 1.2 1.9 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 4.1 2.1 0.7

  2. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4.2 7.6 16.6 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.8 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 6.3 1.4 4.9 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 5.0 1.6 3.4 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 4.0 1.4 2.6 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 2.6 0.9 1.7 2,500 to

  3. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7.1 19.0 22.7 22.3 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 2.1 0.6 Q 0.4 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 13.6 3.7 3.2 3.2 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 9.5 3.7 3.4 4.2 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 6.6 2.7 2.5 3.6 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 5.0 2.1

  4. The principal component analysis method used with polynomial Chaos expansion to propagate uncertainties through critical transport problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rising, M. E.; Prinja, A. K.

    2012-07-01

    A critical neutron transport problem with random material properties is introduced. The total cross section and the average neutron multiplicity are assumed to be uncertain, characterized by the mean and variance with a log-normal distribution. The average neutron multiplicity and the total cross section are assumed to be uncorrected and the material properties for differing materials are also assumed to be uncorrected. The principal component analysis method is used to decompose the covariance matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors and then 'realizations' of the material properties can be computed. A simple Monte Carlo brute force sampling of the decomposed covariance matrix is employed to obtain a benchmark result for each test problem. In order to save computational time and to characterize the moments and probability density function of the multiplication factor the polynomial chaos expansion method is employed along with the stochastic collocation method. A Gauss-Hermite quadrature set is convolved into a multidimensional tensor product quadrature set and is successfully used to compute the polynomial chaos expansion coefficients of the multiplication factor. Finally, for a particular critical fuel pin assembly the appropriate number of random variables and polynomial expansion order are investigated. (authors)

  5. Total................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    .. 111.1 86.6 2,522 1,970 1,310 1,812 1,475 821 1,055 944 554 Total Floorspace (Square Feet) Fewer than 500............................. 3.2 0.9 261 336 162 Q Q Q 334 260 Q 500 to 999.................................... 23.8 9.4 670 683 320 705 666 274 811 721 363 1,000 to 1,499.............................. 20.8 15.0 1,121 1,083 622 1,129 1,052 535 1,228 1,090 676 1,500 to 1,999.............................. 15.4 14.4 1,574 1,450 945 1,628 1,327 629 1,712 1,489 808 2,000 to

  6. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    .. 111.1 24.5 1,090 902 341 872 780 441 Total Floorspace (Square Feet) Fewer than 500...................................... 3.1 2.3 403 360 165 366 348 93 500 to 999.............................................. 22.2 14.4 763 660 277 730 646 303 1,000 to 1,499........................................ 19.1 5.8 1,223 1,130 496 1,187 1,086 696 1,500 to 1,999........................................ 14.4 1.0 1,700 1,422 412 1,698 1,544 1,348 2,000 to 2,499........................................ 12.7

  7. Total...................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500............................................ 3.2 0.4 Q 0.6 1.7 0.4 500 to 999................................................... 23.8 4.8 1.4 4.2 10.2 3.2 1,000 to 1,499............................................. 20.8 10.6 1.8 1.8 4.0 2.6 1,500 to 1,999............................................. 15.4 12.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 2,000 to 2,499............................................. 12.2 10.7 1.0 0.2 Q Q 2,500 to

  8. Total.........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 2 Fewer than 500.................................................. 3.2 Q 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 500 to 999.......................................................... 23.8 1.5 5.4 5.5 6.1 5.3 1,000 to 1,499.................................................... 20.8 1.4 4.0 5.2 5.0 5.2 1,500 to 1,999.................................................... 15.4 1.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.8 2,000 to 2,499.................................................... 12.2 1.4 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.3

  9. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    25.6 40.7 24.2 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.0 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 4.6 3.9 9.0 6.3 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 2.8 4.4 8.6 5.0 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 1.9 3.5 6.0 4.0 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 2.3 3.2 4.1

  10. Total..........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7.1 7.0 8.0 12.1 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................................... 3.2 0.4 Q Q 0.5 500 to 999........................................................... 23.8 2.5 1.5 2.1 3.7 1,000 to 1,499..................................................... 20.8 1.1 2.0 1.5 2.5 1,500 to 1,999..................................................... 15.4 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.9 2,000 to 2,499..................................................... 12.2 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.4

  11. Total...........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    26.7 28.8 20.6 13.1 22.0 16.6 38.6 Floorspace (Square Feet) Total Floorspace 1 Fewer than 500................................... 3.2 1.9 0.9 Q Q Q 1.3 2.3 500 to 999........................................... 23.8 10.5 7.3 3.3 1.4 1.2 6.6 12.9 1,000 to 1,499..................................... 20.8 5.8 7.0 3.8 2.2 2.0 3.9 8.9 1,500 to 1,999..................................... 15.4 3.1 4.2 3.4 2.0 2.7 1.9 5.0 2,000 to 2,499..................................... 12.2 1.7 2.7 2.9 1.8 3.2 1.1 2.8

  12. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  13. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  14. Efficient uncertainty propagation for network multiphysics systems...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report Number(s): SAND2013-0423J DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Journal Article Resource Relation: Journal Name: Proposed for publication in International ...

  15. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main ... In particular, we cover the topics of parameter estimation for inverse problems, statistical analysis of model ...

  16. BEAM PROPAGATOR

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    003691MLTPL00 Beam Propagator for Weather Radars, Modules 1 and 2 http://www.exelisvis.com/ProductsServices/IDL.aspx

  17. Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Software Computations Uncertainty Quantification Stochastic About CRF Transportation Energy Consortiums Engine Combustion Heavy Duty Heavy Duty Low-Temperature & Diesel Combustion ...

  18. Covariance propagation in spectral indices

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Griffin, P. J.

    2015-01-09

    In this study, the dosimetry community has a history of using spectral indices to support neutron spectrum characterization and cross section validation efforts. An important aspect to this type of analysis is the proper consideration of the contribution of the spectrum uncertainty to the total uncertainty in calculated spectral indices (SIs). This study identifies deficiencies in the traditional treatment of the SI uncertainty, provides simple bounds to the spectral component in the SI uncertainty estimates, verifies that these estimates are reflected in actual applications, details a methodology that rigorously captures the spectral contribution to the uncertainty in the SI, andmore » provides quantified examples that demonstrate the importance of the proper treatment the spectral contribution to the uncertainty in the SI.« less

  19. Covariance propagation in spectral indices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, P. J.

    2015-01-09

    In this study, the dosimetry community has a history of using spectral indices to support neutron spectrum characterization and cross section validation efforts. An important aspect to this type of analysis is the proper consideration of the contribution of the spectrum uncertainty to the total uncertainty in calculated spectral indices (SIs). This study identifies deficiencies in the traditional treatment of the SI uncertainty, provides simple bounds to the spectral component in the SI uncertainty estimates, verifies that these estimates are reflected in actual applications, details a methodology that rigorously captures the spectral contribution to the uncertainty in the SI, and provides quantified examples that demonstrate the importance of the proper treatment the spectral contribution to the uncertainty in the SI.

  20. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  1. Monte Carlo Solution for Uncertainty Propagation in Particle Transport with

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    a Stochastic Galerkin Method. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Authors: Franke, Brian C. ; Prinja, Anil K. Publication Date: 2013-01-01 OSTI Identifier: 1063492 Report Number(s): SAND2013-0204C DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Proposed for presentation at the International Conference on Math. and Comp. Methods Applied to Nucl. Sci. and Engg. (M&C 2013) held May 5-9, 2013 in Sun Valley, ID. Research Org: Sandia National

  2. Monte Carlo Solution for Uncertainty Propagation in Particle Transport with

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    a Stochastic Galerkin Method. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Abstract not provided. Authors: Franke, Brian C. ; Prinja, Anil K. Publication Date: 2013-04-01 OSTI Identifier: 1078905 Report Number(s): SAND2013-3409C 448625 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: International Conference on Math. and Comp. Methods Applied to Nucl. Sci. and Engg. (M&C 2013) held May 5-9, 2013 in Sun Valley, ID.; Related Information: Proposed for

  3. Monte Carlo Solution for Uncertainty Propagation in Particle...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Resource Relation: Conference: Proposed for presentation at the International Conference on Math. and Comp. Methods Applied to Nucl. Sci. and Engg. (M&C 2013) held May 5-9, 2013 in ...

  4. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Summary Notes from 15 November 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis and Model Support

  5. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  6. Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zettlemoyer, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

  7. A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators For the multiple sources of error introduced into the standard computational regime for simulating reactor cores, rigorous uncertainty analysis methods are available primarily to quantify the effects of cross section uncertainties. Two methods for propagating

  8. Assessing Climate Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Uncertainty The uncertainty in climate change and in its impacts is of great concern to the international community. While the ever-growing body of scientific evidence substantiates present climate change, the driving concern about this issue lies in the consequences it poses to humanity. Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have quantified all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. Sandia scientists

  9. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  10. Uncertainty Quantification of Composite Laminate Damage with the Generalized Information Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Lucero; F. Hemez; T. Ross; K.Kline; J.Hundhausen; T. Tippetts

    2006-05-01

    This work presents a survey of five theories to assess the uncertainty of projectile impact induced damage on multi-layered carbon-epoxy composite plates. Because the types of uncertainty dealt with in this application are multiple (variability, ambiguity, and conflict) and because the data sets collected are sparse, characterizing the amount of delamination damage with probability theory alone is possible but incomplete. This motivates the exploration of methods contained within a broad Generalized Information Theory (GIT) that rely on less restrictive assumptions than probability theory. Probability, fuzzy sets, possibility, and imprecise probability (probability boxes (p-boxes) and Dempster-Shafer) are used to assess the uncertainty in composite plate damage. Furthermore, this work highlights the usefulness of each theory. The purpose of the study is not to compare directly the different GIT methods but to show that they can be deployed on a practical application and to compare the assumptions upon which these theories are based. The data sets consist of experimental measurements and finite element predictions of the amount of delamination and fiber splitting damage as multilayered composite plates are impacted by a projectile at various velocities. The physical experiments consist of using a gas gun to impact suspended plates with a projectile accelerated to prescribed velocities, then, taking ultrasound images of the resulting delamination. The nonlinear, multiple length-scale numerical simulations couple local crack propagation implemented through cohesive zone modeling to global stress-displacement finite element analysis. The assessment of damage uncertainty is performed in three steps by, first, considering the test data only; then, considering the simulation data only; finally, performing an assessment of total uncertainty where test and simulation data sets are combined. This study leads to practical recommendations for reducing the uncertainty and improving the prediction accuracy of the damage modeling and finite element simulation.

  11. Country Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Country Total Percent of U.S. total China 1,461,074 34 Republic of Korea 172,379 4 Taiwan 688,311 16 All others 1,966,263 46 Total 4,288,027 100 Note: All Others includes Canada, Czech Republic, Federal Republic of Germany, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines and Singapore Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.' Table 7 . Photovoltaic module import shipments by country, 2013 (peak kilowatts)

  12. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  13. Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Martin, Curtis E.

    2015-08-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.

  14. Wave Propagation Program

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-01-08

    WPP is a massively parallel, 3D, C++, finite-difference elastodynamic wave propagation code. Typical applications for wave propagation with WPP include: evaluation of seismic event scenarios and damage from earthquakes, non-destructive evaluation of materials, underground facility detection, oil and gas exploration, predicting the electro-magnetic fields in accelerators, and acoustic noise generation. For more information, see User’s Manual [1].

  15. State Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    State Total Percent of U.S. total Alabama 1,652 0.0 Alaska 152 0.0 Arizona 912,975 19.9 Arkansas 2,724 0.1 California 2,239,983 48.8 Colorado 49,903 1.1 Connecticut 33,627 0.7 Delaware 3,080 0.1 District of Columbia 1,746 0.0 Florida 22,061 0.5 Georgia 99,713 2.2 Guam 39 0.0 Hawaii 126,595 2.8 Idaho 1,423 0.0 Illinois 8,176 0.2 Indiana 12,912 0.3 Iowa 4,480 0.1 Kansas 523 0.0 Kentucky 2,356 0.1 Louisiana 27,704 0.6 Maine 993 0.0 Maryland 30,528 0.7 Massachusetts 143,539 3.1 Michigan 3,416 0.1

  16. Measurement uncertainty relations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Busch, Paul; Lahti, Pekka; Werner, Reinhard F.

    2014-04-15

    Measurement uncertainty relations are quantitative bounds on the errors in an approximate joint measurement of two observables. They can be seen as a generalization of the error/disturbance tradeoff first discussed heuristically by Heisenberg. Here we prove such relations for the case of two canonically conjugate observables like position and momentum, and establish a close connection with the more familiar preparation uncertainty relations constraining the sharpness of the distributions of the two observables in the same state. Both sets of relations are generalized to means of order ? rather than the usual quadratic means, and we show that the optimal constants are the same for preparation and for measurement uncertainty. The constants are determined numerically and compared with some bounds in the literature. In both cases, the near-saturation of the inequalities entails that the state (resp. observable) is uniformly close to a minimizing one.

  17. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  18. Managing Model Data Introduced Uncertainties in Simulator Predictions for Generation IV Systems via Optimum Experimental Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turinsky, Paul J; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S; Stover, Tracy E

    2011-03-31

    An optimization technique has been developed to select optimized experimental design specifications to produce data specifically designed to be assimilated to optimize a given reactor concept. Data from the optimized experiment is assimilated to generate posteriori uncertainties on the reactor concept’s core attributes from which the design responses are computed. The reactor concept is then optimized with the new data to realize cost savings by reducing margin. The optimization problem iterates until an optimal experiment is found to maximize the savings. A new generation of innovative nuclear reactor designs, in particular fast neutron spectrum recycle reactors, are being considered for the application of closing the nuclear fuel cycle in the future. Safe and economical design of these reactors will require uncertainty reduction in basic nuclear data which are input to the reactor design. These data uncertainty propagate to design responses which in turn require the reactor designer to incorporate additional safety margin into the design, which often increases the cost of the reactor. Therefore basic nuclear data needs to be improved and this is accomplished through experimentation. Considering the high cost of nuclear experiments, it is desired to have an optimized experiment which will provide the data needed for uncertainty reduction such that a reactor design concept can meet its target accuracies or to allow savings to be realized by reducing the margin required due to uncertainty propagated from basic nuclear data. However, this optimization is coupled to the reactor design itself because with improved data the reactor concept can be re-optimized itself. It is thus desired to find the experiment that gives the best optimized reactor design. Methods are first established to model both the reactor concept and the experiment and to efficiently propagate the basic nuclear data uncertainty through these models to outputs. The representativity of the experiment to the design concept is quantitatively determined. A technique is then established to assimilate this data and produce posteriori uncertainties on key attributes and responses of the design concept. Several experiment perturbations based on engineering judgment are used to demonstrate these methods and also serve as an initial generation of the optimization problem. Finally, an optimization technique is developed which will simultaneously arrive at an optimized experiment to produce an optimized reactor design. Solution of this problem is made possible by the use of the simulated annealing algorithm for solution of optimization problems. The optimization examined in this work is based on maximizing the reactor cost savings associated with the modified design made possible by using the design margin gained through reduced basic nuclear data uncertainties. Cost values for experiment design specifications and reactor design specifications are established and used to compute a total savings by comparing the posteriori reactor cost to the a priori cost plus the cost of the experiment. The optimized solution arrives at a maximized cost savings.

  19. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tovesson, F.

    2015-01-09

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  20. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  1. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  2. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; Lu, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S. A.

    2012-12-20

    The risk of CO2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO2 andmore » brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

  4. Entropic uncertainty relations and entanglement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guehne, Otfried; Lewenstein, Maciej

    2004-08-01

    We discuss the relationship between entropic uncertainty relations and entanglement. We present two methods for deriving separability criteria in terms of entropic uncertainty relations. In particular, we show how any entropic uncertainty relation on one part of the system results in a separability condition on the composite system. We investigate the resulting criteria using the Tsallis entropy for two and three qubits.

  5. ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SRS COMPOSITE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.; Phifer, M.

    2011-06-30

    The Composite Analysis (CA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) in 2009 (SRS CA 2009) included a simplified uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis in the CA (Smith et al. 2009b) was limited to considering at most five sources in a separate uncertainty calculation performed for each POA. To perform the uncertainty calculations in a reasonable amount of time, the analysis was limited to using 400 realizations, 2,000 years of simulated transport time, and the time steps used for the uncertainty analysis were increased from what was used in the CA base case analysis. As part of the CA maintenance plan, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) committed to improving the CA uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. The previous uncertainty analysis was constrained by the standard GoldSim licensing which limits the user to running at most four Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations (also called realizations) simultaneously. Some of the limitations on the number of realizations that could be practically run and the simulation time steps were removed by building a cluster of three HP Proliant windows servers with a total of 36 64-bit processors and by licensing the GoldSim DP-Plus distributed processing software. This allowed running as many as 35 realizations simultaneously (one processor is reserved as a master process that controls running the realizations). These enhancements to SRNL computing capabilities made uncertainty analysis: using 1000 realizations, using the time steps employed in the base case CA calculations, with more sources, and simulating radionuclide transport for 10,000 years feasible. In addition, an importance screening analysis was performed to identify the class of stochastic variables that have the most significant impact on model uncertainty. This analysis ran the uncertainty model separately testing the response to variations in the following five sets of model parameters: (a) K{sub d} values (72 parameters for the 36 CA elements in sand and clay), (b) Dose Parameters (34 parameters), (c) Material Properties (20 parameters), (d) Surface Water Flows (6 parameters), and (e) Vadose and Aquifer Flow (4 parameters). Results provided an assessment of which group of parameters is most significant in the dose uncertainty. It was found that K{sub d} and the vadose/aquifer flow parameters, both of which impact transport timing, had the greatest impact on dose uncertainty. Dose parameters had an intermediate level of impact while material properties and surface water flows had little impact on dose uncertainty. Results of the importance analysis are discussed further in Section 7 of this report. The objectives of this work were to address comments received during the CA review on the uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate an improved methodology for CA uncertainty calculations as part of CA maintenance. This report partially addresses the LFRG Review Team issue of producing an enhanced CA sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This is described in Table 1-1 which provides specific responses to pertinent CA maintenance items extracted from Section 11 of the SRS CA (2009). As noted above, the original uncertainty analysis looked at each POA separately and only included the effects from at most five sources giving the highest peak doses at each POA. Only 17 of the 152 CA sources were used in the original uncertainty analysis and the simulation time was reduced from 10,000 to 2,000 years. A major constraint on the original uncertainty analysis was the limitation of only being able to use at most four distributed processes. This work expanded the analysis to 10,000 years using 39 of the CA sources, included cumulative dose effects at downstream POAs, with more realizations (1,000) and finer time steps. This was accomplished by using the GoldSim DP-Plus module and the 36 processors available on a new windows cluster. The last part of the work looked at the contribution to overall uncertainty from the main categories of uncertainty variables: K{sub d}s, dose parameters, flow parameters, and material propertie

  6. Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. No abstract prepared. ...

  7. A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, J. D.; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

    2006-10-01

    Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

  8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

  9. Reconstruction of nonlinear wave propagation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fleischer, Jason W; Barsi, Christopher; Wan, Wenjie

    2013-04-23

    Disclosed are systems and methods for characterizing a nonlinear propagation environment by numerically propagating a measured output waveform resulting from a known input waveform. The numerical propagation reconstructs the input waveform, and in the process, the nonlinear environment is characterized. In certain embodiments, knowledge of the characterized nonlinear environment facilitates determination of an unknown input based on a measured output. Similarly, knowledge of the characterized nonlinear environment also facilitates formation of a desired output based on a configurable input. In both situations, the input thus characterized and the output thus obtained include features that would normally be lost in linear propagations. Such features can include evanescent waves and peripheral waves, such that an image thus obtained are inherently wide-angle, farfield form of microscopy.

  10. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  11. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; Lu, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S. A.

    2012-12-20

    The risk of CO2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.

  12. Barge Truck Total

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Barge Truck Total delivered cost per short ton Shipments with transportation rates over total shipments Total delivered cost per short ton Shipments with transportation rates over...

  13. Semiclassical propagation of Wigner functions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dittrich, T.; Gomez, E. A.; Pachon, L. A.

    2010-06-07

    We present a comprehensive study of semiclassical phase-space propagation in the Wigner representation, emphasizing numerical applications, in particular as an initial-value representation. Two semiclassical approximation schemes are discussed. The propagator of the Wigner function based on van Vleck's approximation replaces the Liouville propagator by a quantum spot with an oscillatory pattern reflecting the interference between pairs of classical trajectories. Employing phase-space path integration instead, caustics in the quantum spot are resolved in terms of Airy functions. We apply both to two benchmark models of nonlinear molecular potentials, the Morse oscillator and the quartic double well, to test them in standard tasks such as computing autocorrelation functions and propagating coherent states. The performance of semiclassical Wigner propagation is very good even in the presence of marked quantum effects, e.g., in coherent tunneling and in propagating Schroedinger cat states, and of classical chaos in four-dimensional phase space. We suggest options for an effective numerical implementation of our method and for integrating it in Monte-Carlo-Metropolis algorithms suitable for high-dimensional systems.

  14. Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic ...

  15. Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference ...

  16. Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements You are...

  17. TRITIUM UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SURFACE WATER SAMPLES AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atkinson, R.

    2012-07-31

    Radiochemical analyses of surface water samples, in the framework of Environmental Monitoring, have associated uncertainties for the radioisotopic results reported. These uncertainty analyses pertain to the tritium results from surface water samples collected at five locations on the Savannah River near the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). Uncertainties can result from the field-sampling routine, can be incurred during transport due to the physical properties of the sample, from equipment limitations, and from the measurement instrumentation used. The uncertainty reported by the SRS in their Annual Site Environmental Report currently considers only the counting uncertainty in the measurements, which is the standard reporting protocol for radioanalytical chemistry results. The focus of this work is to provide an overview of all uncertainty components associated with SRS tritium measurements, estimate the total uncertainty according to ISO 17025, and to propose additional experiments to verify some of the estimated uncertainties. The main uncertainty components discovered and investigated in this paper are tritium absorption or desorption in the sample container, HTO/H{sub 2}O isotopic effect during distillation, pipette volume, and tritium standard uncertainty. The goal is to quantify these uncertainties and to establish a combined uncertainty in order to increase the scientific depth of the SRS Annual Site Environmental Report.

  18. ,"Total Natural Gas Consumption

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gas Consumption (billion cubic feet)",,,,,"Natural Gas Energy Intensity (cubic feetsquare foot)" ,"Total ","Space Heating","Water Heating","Cook- ing","Other","Total ","Space...

  19. A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh

    2015-12-28

    Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may help address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attackers payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-systems state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.

  20. Statistics, Uncertainty, and Transmitted Variation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wendelberger, Joanne Roth

    2014-11-05

    The field of Statistics provides methods for modeling and understanding data and making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. When examining response functions, variation present in the input variables will be transmitted via the response function to the output variables. This phenomenon can potentially have significant impacts on the uncertainty associated with results from subsequent analysis. This presentation will examine the concept of transmitted variation, its impact on designed experiments, and a method for identifying and estimating sources of transmitted variation in certain settings.

  1. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H.

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio of absolute risks between two modalities is less sensitive to the uncertainties in the risk model and can provide statistically significant estimates.

  2. IAEA CRP on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Benchmark Definition and Test Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Frederik Reitsma; Hans Gougar; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

    2012-11-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are essential elements of the reactor simulation code verification and validation process. Although several international uncertainty quantification activities have been launched in recent years in the LWR, BWR and VVER domains (e.g. the OECD/NEA BEMUSE program [1], from which the current OECD/NEA LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) benchmark [2] effort was derived), the systematic propagation of uncertainties in cross-section, manufacturing and model parameters for High Temperature Reactor (HTGR) designs has not been attempted yet. This paper summarises the scope, objectives and exercise definitions of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR UAM [3]. Note that no results will be included here, as the HTGR UAM benchmark was only launched formally in April 2012, and the specification is currently still under development.

  3. WE-B-19A-01: SRT II: Uncertainties in SRT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dieterich, S; Schlesinger, D; Geneser, S

    2014-06-15

    SRS delivery has undergone major technical changes in the last decade, transitioning from predominantly frame-based treatment delivery to imageguided, frameless SRS. It is important for medical physicists working in SRS to understand the magnitude and sources of uncertainty involved in delivering SRS treatments for a multitude of technologies (Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, linac-based SRS and protons). Sources of SRS planning and delivery uncertainty include dose calculation, dose fusion, and intra- and inter-fraction motion. Dose calculations for small fields are particularly difficult because of the lack of electronic equilibrium and greater effect of inhomogeneities within and near the PTV. Going frameless introduces greater setup uncertainties that allows for potentially increased intra- and interfraction motion, The increased use of multiple imaging modalities to determine the tumor volume, necessitates (deformable) image and contour fusion, and the resulting uncertainties introduced in the image registration process further contribute to overall treatment planning uncertainties. Each of these uncertainties must be quantified and their impact on treatment delivery accuracy understood. If necessary, the uncertainties may then be accounted for during treatment planning either through techniques to make the uncertainty explicit, or by the appropriate addition of PTV margins. Further complicating matters, the statistics of 1-5 fraction SRS treatments differ from traditional margin recipes relying on Poisson statistics. In this session, we will discuss uncertainties introduced during each step of the SRS treatment planning and delivery process and present margin recipes to appropriately account for such uncertainties. Learning Objectives: To understand the major contributors to the total delivery uncertainty in SRS for Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, and linac-based SRS. Learn the various uncertainties introduced by image fusion, deformable image registration, and contouring variation. Learn a variety of strategies for dealing with uncertainty, including margin recipes and explicit visualization of uncertainty. Understand how the assessment of PTV margins differs from regular fractionation (van Herk recipe) for 15 fraction deliveries.

  4. A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankov, Artem; Collins, Benjamin; Klein, Markus; Jessee, Matthew A.; Zwermann, Winfried; Velkov, Kiril; Pautz, Andreas; Downar, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    For the multiple sources of error introduced into the standard computational regime for simulating reactor cores, rigorous uncertainty analysis methods are available primarily to quantify the effects of cross section uncertainties. Two methods for propagating cross section uncertainties through core simulators are the XSUSA statistical approach and the “two-step” method. The XSUSA approach, which is based on the SUSA code package, is fundamentally a stochastic sampling method. Alternatively, the two-step method utilizes generalized perturbation theory in the first step and stochastic sampling in the second step. The consistency of these two methods in quantifying uncertainties in the multiplication factor andmore » in the core power distribution was examined in the framework of phase I-3 of the OECD Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling benchmark. With the Three Mile Island Unit 1 core as a base model for analysis, the XSUSA and two-step methods were applied with certain limitations, and the results were compared to those produced by other stochastic sampling-based codes. Based on the uncertainty analysis results, conclusions were drawn as to the method that is currently more viable for computing uncertainties in burnup and transient calculations.« less

  5. Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, J.; McNelis, D.; Yim, M.S.

    2013-07-01

    This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

  6. Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantification and multiscale mathematics. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. Authors: Trucano, Timothy Guy ...

  7. ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . Fuel Oil Expenditures by Census Region for Non-Mall Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures (million dollars)",,,,"Fuel Oil Expenditures (dollars)" ,,,,,"per...

  8. ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0. Fuel Oil Consumption (gallons) and Energy Intensities by End Use for Non-Mall Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption (million gallons)",,,,,"Fuel Oil Energy Intensity...

  9. ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4. Fuel Oil Expenditures by Census Region, 1999" ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures (million dollars)",,,,"Fuel Oil Expenditures (dollars)" ,,,,,"per Gallon",,,,"per Square Foot"...

  10. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: Energy End-Use Consumption Tables Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration...

  11. ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    A. Fuel Oil Expenditures by Census Region for All Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Expenditures (million dollars)",,,,"Fuel Oil Expenditures (dollars)" ,,,,,"per Gallon",,,,"per...

  12. ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    A. Fuel Oil Consumption (gallons) and Energy Intensities by End Use for All Buildings, 2003" ,"Total Fuel Oil Consumption (million gallons)",,,,,"Fuel Oil Energy Intensity...

  13. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Revised: December, 2008 Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration Office Equip- ment Com- puters Other All Buildings...

  14. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration Office Equip- ment Com- puters Other All Buildings*...

  15. Size exclusion deep bed filtration: Experimental and modelling uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Badalyan, Alexander You, Zhenjiang; Aji, Kaiser; Bedrikovetsky, Pavel; Carageorgos, Themis; Zeinijahromi, Abbas

    2014-01-15

    A detailed uncertainty analysis associated with carboxyl-modified latex particle capture in glass bead-formed porous media enabled verification of the two theoretical stochastic models for prediction of particle retention due to size exclusion. At the beginning of this analysis it is established that size exclusion is a dominant particle capture mechanism in the present study: calculated significant repulsive Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek potential between latex particles and glass beads is an indication of their mutual repulsion, thus, fulfilling the necessary condition for size exclusion. Applying linear uncertainty propagation method in the form of truncated Taylor's series expansion, combined standard uncertainties (CSUs) in normalised suspended particle concentrations are calculated using CSUs in experimentally determined parameters such as: an inlet volumetric flowrate of suspension, particle number in suspensions, particle concentrations in inlet and outlet streams, particle and pore throat size distributions. Weathering of glass beads in high alkaline solutions does not appreciably change particle size distribution, and, therefore, is not considered as an additional contributor to the weighted mean particle radius and corresponded weighted mean standard deviation. Weighted mean particle radius and LogNormal mean pore throat radius are characterised by the highest CSUs among all experimental parameters translating to high CSU in the jamming ratio factor (dimensionless particle size). Normalised suspended particle concentrations calculated via two theoretical models are characterised by higher CSUs than those for experimental data. The model accounting the fraction of inaccessible flow as a function of latex particle radius excellently predicts normalised suspended particle concentrations for the whole range of jamming ratios. The presented uncertainty analysis can be also used for comparison of intra- and inter-laboratory particle size exclusion data.

  16. Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification Using VERA-CS for a Core Wide LWR Problem with Depletion L2:VMA.P12.01 Bassam A. Khuwaileh and Paul J. Turinsky North Carolina State University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Raleigh, NC. This research was supported by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (www.casl.gov), an Energy Innovation Hub (http://www.energy.gov/hubs) for Modeling and Simulation of Nuclear Reactors under U.S. Department of Energy Contract No.

  17. Parallel Total Energy

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-10-21

    This is a total energy electronic structure code using Local Density Approximation (LDA) of the density funtional theory. It uses the plane wave as the wave function basis set. It can sue both the norm conserving pseudopotentials and the ultra soft pseudopotentials. It can relax the atomic positions according to the total energy. It is a parallel code using MP1.

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

  19. Scaling properties of proton-nucleus total reaction cross sections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abu-Ibrahim, Badawy; Kohama, Akihisa

    2010-05-15

    We study the scaling properties of proton-nucleus total reaction cross sections for stable nuclei and propose an approximate expression in proportion to Z{sup 2/3}sigma{sub pp}{sup total}+N{sup 2/3}sigma{sub pn}{sup total}. Based on this expression, we can derive a relation that enables us to predict a total reaction cross section for any stable nucleus within 10% uncertainty at most, using the empirical value of the total reaction cross section of a given nucleus.

  20. Summary Max Total Units

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Summary Max Total Units *If All Splits, No Rack Units **If Only FW, AC Splits 1000 52 28 28 2000 87 59 35 3000 61 33 15 4000 61 33 15 Totals 261 153 93 ***Costs $1,957,500.00 $1,147,500.00 $697,500.00 Notes: added several refrigerants removed bins from analysis removed R-22 from list 1000lb, no Glycol, CO2 or ammonia Seawater R-404A only * includes seawater units ** no seawater units included *** Costs = (total units) X (estimate of $7500 per unit) 1000lb, air cooled split systems, fresh water

  1. Country/Continent Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    peak kilowatts) Country/Continent Total Percent of U.S. total Africa 14,279 3.7 Asia/Australia 330,200 86.2 Europe 19,771 5.1 South/Central America 7,748 2.0 Canada 5,507 1.4 Mexico 5,747 1.5 Total 383,252 100.0 Table 8. Destination of photovoltaic module export shipments, 2013 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.'

  2. Correcting radar range measurements for atmospheric propagation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Correcting radar range measurements for atmospheric propagation effects. Abstract not provided. Authors: Doerry, Armin Walter Publication Date: 2013-12-01 OSTI Identifier: ...

  3. Quench propagation velocity for highly stabilized conductors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mints, R.G. |; Ogitsu, T. |; Devred, A.

    1995-05-01

    Quench propagation velocity in conductors having a large amount of stabilizer outside the multifilamentary area is considered. It is shown that the current redistribution process between the multifilamentary area and the stabilizer can strongly effect the quench propagation. A criterion is derived determining the conditions under which the current redistribution process becomes significant, and a model of effective stabilizer area is suggested to describe its influence on the quench propagation velocity. As an illustration, the model is applied to calculate the adiabatic quench propagation velocity for a conductor geometry with a multifilamentary area embedded inside the stabilizer.

  4. An Estimator of Propagation of Cascading Failure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian; Wierzbicki, Kevin; Carreras, Benjamin A; Lynch, Vickie E; Newman, David E

    2006-01-01

    The authors suggest a statistical estimator to measure the extent to which failures propagate in cascading failures such as large blackouts.

  5. Total Space Heat-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Survey: Energy End-Use Consumption Tables Total Space Heat- ing Cool- ing Venti- lation Water Heat- ing Light- ing Cook- ing Refrig- eration Office Equip- ment Com- puters Other...

  6. ARM - Measurement - Total carbon

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    carbon ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Measurement : Total carbon The total concentration of carbon in all its organic and non-organic forms. Categories Aerosols, Atmospheric Carbon Instruments The above measurement is considered scientifically relevant for the following instruments. Refer to the datastream (netcdf) file headers of each instrument for a list of all available measurements, including

  7. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD.; Storlie, Curt B.

    2006-06-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

  8. Uncertainty quantification of a radionuclide release model using an adaptive spectral technique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gilli, L.; Hoogwerf, C.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J. L.

    2013-07-01

    In this paper we present the application of a non-intrusive spectral techniques we recently developed for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated with a radionuclide migration problem. Spectral techniques can be used to reconstruct stochastic quantities of interest by means of a Fourier-like expansion. Their application to uncertainty propagation problems can be performed by evaluating a set of realizations which are chosen adaptively, in this work the main details about how this is done are presented. The uncertainty quantification problem we are going to deal with was first solved in a recent work where the authors used a spectral technique based on an intrusive approach. In this paper we are going to reproduce the results of this reference work, compare them and discuss the main numerical aspects. (authors)

  9. A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslick, John C.; Ng, Brenda; Gao, Qianwen; Tong, Charles H.; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.; Miller, David C.

    2014-12-31

    Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energys Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification through PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. Thus, this computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.

  10. A framework for optimization and quantification of uncertainty and sensitivity for developing carbon capture systems

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Eslick, John C.; Ng, Brenda; Gao, Qianwen; Tong, Charles H.; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.; Miller, David C.

    2014-12-31

    Under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), a Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity (FOQUS) has been developed. This tool enables carbon capture systems to be rapidly synthesized and rigorously optimized, in an environment that accounts for and propagates uncertainties in parameters and models. FOQUS currently enables (1) the development of surrogate algebraic models utilizing the ALAMO algorithm, which can be used for superstructure optimization to identify optimal process configurations, (2) simulation-based optimization utilizing derivative free optimization (DFO) algorithms with detailed black-box process models, and (3) rigorous uncertainty quantification throughmore » PSUADE. FOQUS utilizes another CCSI technology, the Turbine Science Gateway, to manage the thousands of simulated runs necessary for optimization and UQ. Thus, this computational framework has been demonstrated for the design and analysis of a solid sorbent based carbon capture system.« less

  11. Capturing the uncertainty in adversary attack simulations.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darby, John L.; Brooks, Traci N.; Berry, Robert Bruce

    2008-09-01

    This work provides a comprehensive uncertainty technique to evaluate uncertainty, resulting in a more realistic evaluation of PI, thereby requiring fewer resources to address scenarios and allowing resources to be used across more scenarios. For a given set of dversary resources, two types of uncertainty are associated with PI for a scenario: (1) aleatory (random) uncertainty for detection probabilities and time delays and (2) epistemic (state of knowledge) uncertainty for the adversary resources applied during an attack. Adversary esources consist of attributes (such as equipment and training) and knowledge about the security system; to date, most evaluations have assumed an adversary with very high resources, adding to the conservatism in the evaluation of PI. The aleatory uncertainty in PI is ddressed by assigning probability distributions to detection probabilities and time delays. A numerical sampling technique is used to evaluate PI, addressing the repeated variable dependence in the equation for PI.

  12. Total DOE/NNSA

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    8 Actuals 2009 Actuals 2010 Actuals 2011 Actuals 2012 Actuals 2013 Actuals 2014 Actuals 2015 Actuals Total DOE/NNSA 4,385 4,151 4,240 4,862 5,154 5,476 7,170 7,593 Total non-NNSA 3,925 4,017 4,005 3,821 3,875 3,974 3,826 3765 Total Facility 8,310 8,168 8,245 8,683 9,029 9,450 10,996 11,358 non-NNSA includes DOE offices and Strategic Parternship Projects (SPP) employees NNSA M&O Employee Reporting

  13. Propagation testing multi-cell batteries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orendorff, Christopher J.; Lamb, Joshua; Steele, Leigh Anna Marie; Spangler, Scott Wilmer

    2014-10-01

    Propagation of single point or single cell failures in multi-cell batteries is a significant concern as batteries increase in scale for a variety of civilian and military applications. This report describes the procedure for testing failure propagation along with some representative test results to highlight the potential outcomes for different battery types and designs.

  14. 3D Elastic Seismic Wave Propagation Code

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1998-09-23

    E3D is capable of simulating seismic wave propagation in a 3D heterogeneous earth. Seismic waves are initiated by earthquake, explosive, and/or other sources. These waves propagate through a 3D geologic model, and are simulated as synthetic seismograms or other graphical output.

  15. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    uncertainty in Europe and China, and robust oil demand in global energy ... to reports of monetary tightening in China, which could dampen energy demand in that ...

  16. Uncertainty quantification for discrimination of nuclear events...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty Title: Uncertainty quantification for discrimination of nuclear events as violations of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty Authors: ...

  17. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly...

  18. ARM - PI Product - Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties. Data Details Contact Allison Mccomiskey CIRES NOAA allison.mccomiskey@noaa.gov 303-497-6189 NOAA ...

  19. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty (Dataset) | Data Explorer

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties. less Authors: Mccomiskey, Allison Publication Date: 2008-01-15 OSTI Identifier: 1169526 DOE Contract ...

  20. From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Planning a Long Journey in Ice Sheet Modeling. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning a Long Journey in ...

  1. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, Aron

    2015-06-25

    This presentation summarizes uncertainty estimation of radiometric data using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM) method.

  2. Cosmic ray propagation and dark matter in light of the latest AMS-02 data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, Hong-Bo; Wu, Yue-Liang; Zhou, Yu-Feng

    2015-09-21

    The AMS-02 experiment is measuring the high energy cosmic rays with unprecedented accuracy. We explore the possibility of determining the cosmic-ray propagation models using the AMS-02 data alone. A global Bayesian analysis of the constraints on the cosmic-ray propagation models from the preliminary AMS-02 data on the Boron to Carbon nuclei flux ratio and proton flux is performed, with the assumption that the primary nucleon source is a broken power law in rigidity. The ratio of the diffusion coefficient D{sub 0} to the diffusive halo height Z{sub h} is determined with high accuracy D{sub 0}/Z{sub h}≃2.00±0.07 cm{sup 2}s{sup −1}kpc{sup −1}, and the value of the halo width is found to be Z{sub h}≃3.3 kpc with uncertainty less than 50%. As a consequence, the typical uncertainties in the positron fraction predicted from dark matter (DM) annihilation is reduced to a factor of two, and that in the antiproton flux is about an order of magnitude. Both of them are significantly smaller than that from the analyses prior to AMS-02. Taking into account the uncertainties and correlations in the propagation parameters, we derive conservative upper limits on the cross sections for DM annihilating into various standard model final states from the current PAMELA antiproton data. We also investigate the reconstruction capability of the future high precision AMS-02 antiproton data on the DM properties. The results show that for DM particles lighter than ∼100 GeV and with typical thermal annihilation cross section, the cross section can be well reconstructed with uncertainties about a factor of two for the AMS-02 three-year data taking.

  3. Near IR Scanning Angle Total Internal Reflection Raman Spectroscopy at Smooth Gold Films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKee, Kristopher; Meyer, Matthew; Smith, Emily

    2012-04-13

    Total internal reflection (TIR) Raman and reflectivity spectra were collected for nonresonant analytes as a function of incident angle at sapphire or sapphire/smooth 50 nm gold interfaces using 785 nm excitation. For both interfaces, the Raman signal as a function of incident angle is well-modeled by the calculated interfacial mean square electric field (MSEF) relative to the incident field times the thickness of the layer being probed in the Raman measurement (D{sub RS}). The Raman scatter was reproducibly enhanced at the interface containing a gold film relative to the sapphire interface by a factor of 4.34.6 for aqueous pyridine or 2.23.7 for neat nitrobenzene, depending on the analyzed vibrational mode. The mechanism for the increased Raman signal is the enhanced MSEF at incident angles where propagating surface plasmons are excited in the metal film. The background from the TIR prism was reduced by 8995% with the addition of the gold film, and the percent relative uncertainty in peak area was reduced from 15 to 1.7% for the 1347 cm1 mode of nitrobenzene. Single monolayers of benzenethiol (S/N = 6.8) and 4-mercaptopyridine (S/N = 16.5) on gold films were measured by TIR Raman spectroscopy with 785 nm excitation (210 mW) without resonant enhancement in 1 min.

  4. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Shell

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-04-20

    SUNS (Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Shell) is a 32-bit application that runs under Windows 95/98 and Windows NT. It is designed to aid in statistical analyses for a broad range of applications. The class of problems for which SUNS is suitable is generally defined by two requirements: 1. A computer code is developed or acquired that models some processes for which input is uncertain and the user is interested in statistical analysis of the outputmore » of that code. 2. The statistical analysis of interest can be accomplished using the Monte Carlo analysis. The implementation then requires that the user identify which input to the process model is to be manipulated for statistical analysis. With this information, the changes required to loosely couple SUNS with the process model can be completed. SUNS is then used to generate the required statistical sample and the user-supplied process model analyses the sample. The SUNS post processor displays statistical results from any existing file that contains sampled input and output values.« less

  5. 21 briefing pages total

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    1 briefing pages total p. 1 Reservist Differential Briefing U.S. Office of Personnel Management December 11, 2009 p. 2 Agenda - Introduction of Speakers - Background - References/Tools - Overview of Reservist Differential Authority - Qualifying Active Duty Service and Military Orders - Understanding Military Leave and Earnings Statements p. 3 Background 5 U.S.C. 5538 (Section 751 of the Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009, March 11, 2009) (Public Law 111-8) Law requires OPM to consult with DOD Law

  6. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  7. A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2014-04-01

    Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

  8. Adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for uncertainty quantification of a gas cooled fast reactor transient

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perko, Z.; Gilli, L.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J. L.

    2013-07-01

    Uncertainty quantification plays an increasingly important role in the nuclear community, especially with the rise of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies. Sensitivity analysis, surrogate models, Monte Carlo sampling and several other techniques can be used to propagate input uncertainties. In recent years however polynomial chaos expansion has become a popular alternative providing high accuracy at affordable computational cost. This paper presents such polynomial chaos (PC) methods using adaptive sparse grids and adaptive basis set construction, together with an application to a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor transient. Comparison is made between a new sparse grid algorithm and the traditionally used technique proposed by Gerstner. An adaptive basis construction method is also introduced and is proved to be advantageous both from an accuracy and a computational point of view. As a demonstration the uncertainty quantification of a 50% loss of flow transient in the GFR2400 Gas Cooled Fast Reactor design was performed using the CATHARE code system. The results are compared to direct Monte Carlo sampling and show the superior convergence and high accuracy of the polynomial chaos expansion. Since PC techniques are easy to implement, they can offer an attractive alternative to traditional techniques for the uncertainty quantification of large scale problems. (authors)

  9. CALiPER Exploratory Study: Accounting for Uncertainty in Lumen Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bergman, Rolf; Paget, Maria L.; Richman, Eric E.

    2011-03-31

    With a well-defined and shared understanding of uncertainty in lumen measurements, testing laboratories can better evaluate their processes, contributing to greater consistency and credibility of lighting testing a key component of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercially Available LED Product Evaluation and Reporting (CALiPER) program. Reliable lighting testing is a crucial underlying factor contributing toward the success of many energy-efficient lighting efforts, such as the DOE GATEWAY demonstrations, Lighting Facts Label, ENERGY STAR energy efficient lighting programs, and many others. Uncertainty in measurements is inherent to all testing methodologies, including photometric and other lighting-related testing. Uncertainty exists for all equipment, processes, and systems of measurement in individual as well as combined ways. A major issue with testing and the resulting accuracy of the tests is the uncertainty of the complete process. Individual equipment uncertainties are typically identified, but their relative value in practice and their combined value with other equipment and processes in the same test are elusive concepts, particularly for complex types of testing such as photometry. The total combined uncertainty of a measurement result is important for repeatable and comparative measurements for light emitting diode (LED) products in comparison with other technologies as well as competing products. This study provides a detailed and step-by-step method for determining uncertainty in lumen measurements, working closely with related standards efforts and key industry experts. This report uses the structure proposed in the Guide to Uncertainty Measurements (GUM) for evaluating and expressing uncertainty in measurements. The steps of the procedure are described and a spreadsheet format adapted for integrating sphere and goniophotometric uncertainty measurements is provided for entering parameters, ordering the information, calculating intermediate values and, finally, obtaining expanded uncertainties. Using this basis and examining each step of the photometric measurement and calibration methods, mathematical uncertainty models are developed. Determination of estimated values of input variables is discussed. Guidance is provided for the evaluation of the standard uncertainties of each input estimate, covariances associated with input estimates and the calculation of the result measurements. With this basis, the combined uncertainty of the measurement results and finally, the expanded uncertainty can be determined.

  10. Numerical uncertainty in computational engineering and physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hemez, Francois M

    2009-01-01

    Obtaining a solution that approximates ordinary or partial differential equations on a computational mesh or grid does not necessarily mean that the solution is accurate or even 'correct'. Unfortunately assessing the quality of discrete solutions by questioning the role played by spatial and temporal discretizations generally comes as a distant third to test-analysis comparison and model calibration. This publication is contributed to raise awareness of the fact that discrete solutions introduce numerical uncertainty. This uncertainty may, in some cases, overwhelm in complexity and magnitude other sources of uncertainty that include experimental variability, parametric uncertainty and modeling assumptions. The concepts of consistency, convergence and truncation error are overviewed to explain the articulation between the exact solution of continuous equations, the solution of modified equations and discrete solutions computed by a code. The current state-of-the-practice of code and solution verification activities is discussed. An example in the discipline of hydro-dynamics illustrates the significant effect that meshing can have on the quality of code predictions. A simple method is proposed to derive bounds of solution uncertainty in cases where the exact solution of the continuous equations, or its modified equations, is unknown. It is argued that numerical uncertainty originating from mesh discretization should always be quantified and accounted for in the overall uncertainty 'budget' that supports decision-making for applications in computational physics and engineering.

  11. Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lohmann, Ulrike; Storelvmo, Trude; Jones, Andy; Rotstayn, Leon; Menon, Surabi; Quaas, Johannes; Ekman, Annica; Koch, Dorothy; Ruedy, Reto

    2009-09-25

    Uncertainties in aerosol forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. Traditionally these feedbacks were not included in estimates of total aerosol forcing. Here we argue that they should be included because these feedbacks act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Thus we propose replacing the direct and indirect aerosol forcing in the IPCC forcing chart with RFP estimates. This implies that it is better to evaluate the total anthropogenic aerosol effect as a whole.

  12. A flexible uncertainty quantification method for linearly coupled multi-physics systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Xiao Ng, Brenda; Sun, Yunwei; Tong, Charles

    2013-09-01

    Highlights: We propose a modularly hybrid UQ methodology suitable for independent development of module-based multi-physics simulation. Our algorithmic framework allows for each module to have its own UQ method (either intrusive or non-intrusive). Information from each module is combined systematically to propagate global uncertainty. Our proposed approach can allow for easy swapping of new methods for any modules without the need to address incompatibilities. We demonstrate the proposed framework on a practical application involving a multi-species reactive transport model. -- Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to building an integrated uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology suitable for modern-day component-based approach for multi-physics simulation development. Our hybrid UQ methodology supports independent development of the most suitable UQ method, intrusive or non-intrusive, for each physics module by providing an algorithmic framework to couple these stochastic modules for propagating global uncertainties. We address algorithmic and computational issues associated with the construction of this hybrid framework. We demonstrate the utility of such a framework on a practical application involving a linearly coupled multi-species reactive transport model.

  13. Uncommon Deformation Mechanisms during Fatigue-Crack Propagation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncommon Deformation Mechanisms during Fatigue-Crack Propagation in Nanocrystalline Alloys Prev Next Title: Uncommon Deformation Mechanisms during Fatigue-Crack Propagation ...

  14. Problems with propagation and time evolution in f ( T ) gravity...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Problems with propagation and time evolution in f ( T ) gravity Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Problems with propagation and time evolution in f ( T ) gravity Authors: ...

  15. Experimental X-ray characterization of Gekko XII laser propagation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Experimental X-ray characterization of Gekko XII laser propagation through very low ... Title: Experimental X-ray characterization of Gekko XII laser propagation through very low ...

  16. Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed Media Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in ...

  17. Characterization of Heat-Wave Propagation through Laser-Driven...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Characterization of Heat-Wave Propagation through Laser-Driven Ti-Doped Underdense Plasma Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Characterization of Heat-Wave Propagation...

  18. Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in Laser-Produced Underdense...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in Laser-Produced Underdense Plasma for Efficient X-Ray Generation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in...

  19. Fracture Propagation, Fluid Flow, and Geomechanics of Water-Based...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: Fracture Propagation, Fluid Flow, and Geomechanics of Water-Based Hydraulic ... Title: Fracture Propagation, Fluid Flow, and Geomechanics of Water-Based Hydraulic ...

  20. Total Sales of Kerosene

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    End Use: Total Residential Commercial Industrial Farm All Other Period: Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: End Use Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 View History U.S. 269,010 305,508 187,656 81,102 79,674 137,928 1984-2014 East Coast (PADD 1) 198,762 237,397 142,189 63,075 61,327 106,995 1984-2014 New England (PADD 1A) 56,661 53,363 38,448 15,983 15,991 27,500 1984-2014 Connecticut 8,800 7,437

  1. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salvatores, Massimo; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Aliberti, G.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties is a crucial step in design. The comparison of a-priori uncertainties with the target accuracies, allows to define needs and priorities for uncertainty reduction. In view of their impact, the uncertainty analysis requires a reliability assessment of the uncertainty data used. The choice of the appropriate approach and the consistency of different approaches are discussed.

  2. An uncertainty principle for unimodular quantum groups

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crann, Jason; Kalantar, Mehrdad E-mail: mkalanta@math.carleton.ca

    2014-08-15

    We present a generalization of Hirschman's entropic uncertainty principle for locally compact Abelian groups to unimodular locally compact quantum groups. As a corollary, we strengthen a well-known uncertainty principle for compact groups, and generalize the relation to compact quantum groups of Kac type. We also establish the complementarity of finite-dimensional quantum group algebras. In the non-unimodular setting, we obtain an uncertainty relation for arbitrary locally compact groups using the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight as the measure of uncertainty. We also show that when restricted to q-traces of discrete quantum groups, the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight reduces to the canonical entropy of the random walk generated by the state.

  3. Cost Analysis: Technology, Competitiveness, Market Uncertainty | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Technology to Market » Cost Analysis: Technology, Competitiveness, Market Uncertainty Cost Analysis: Technology, Competitiveness, Market Uncertainty As a basis for strategic planning, competitiveness analysis, funding metrics and targets, SunShot supports analysis teams at national laboratories to assess technology costs, location-specific competitive advantages, policy impacts on system financing, and to perform detailed levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analyses. This shows the

  4. Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilist...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case...

  5. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Ming Ye...

  6. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by ...

  7. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by ...

  8. Quantification of initial-data uncertainty on a shock-accelerated gas cylinder

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tritschler, V. K. Avdonin, A.; Hickel, S.; Hu, X. Y.; Adams, N. A.

    2014-02-15

    We quantify initial-data uncertainties on a shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder by two-dimensional well-resolved direct numerical simulations. A high-resolution compressible multicomponent flow simulation model is coupled with a polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the initial-data uncertainties to the output quantities of interest. The initial flow configuration follows previous experimental and numerical works of the shock accelerated heavy-gas cylinder. We investigate three main initial-data uncertainties, (i) shock Mach number, (ii) contamination of SF{sub 6} with acetone, and (iii) initial deviations of the heavy-gas region from a perfect cylindrical shape. The impact of initial-data uncertainties on the mixing process is examined. The results suggest that the mixing process is highly sensitive to input variations of shock Mach number and acetone contamination. Additionally, our results indicate that the measured shock Mach number in the experiment of Tomkins et al. [An experimental investigation of mixing mechanisms in shock-accelerated flow, J. Fluid. Mech. 611, 131 (2008)] and the estimated contamination of the SF{sub 6} region with acetone [S. K. Shankar, S. Kawai, and S. K. Lele, Two-dimensional viscous flow simulation of a shock accelerated heavy gas cylinder, Phys. Fluids 23, 024102 (2011)] exhibit deviations from those that lead to best agreement between our simulations and the experiment in terms of overall flow evolution.

  9. Laser propagation in underdense plasmas: Scaling arguments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garrison, J.C.

    1993-05-01

    The propagation of an intense laser beam in the underdense plasma is modelled by treating the plasma as a relativistic, zero temperature, charged fluid. For paraxial propagation and a sufficiently underdense plasma ({omega}p/{omega} {much_lt} 1), a multiple-scales technique is used to expand the exact equations in powers of the small parameter {theta} {equivalent_to} {omega}p/{omega}. The zeroth order equations are used in a critical examination of previous work on this problem, and to derive a scaling law for the threshold power required for cavitation.

  10. Light propagation in the South Pole ice

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Dawn; Collaboration: IceCube Collaboration

    2014-11-18

    The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is located in the ice near the geographic South Pole. Particle showers from neutrino interactions in the ice produce light which is detected by IceCube modules, and the amount and pattern of deposited light are used to reconstruct the properties of the incident neutrino. Since light is scattered and absorbed by ice between the neutrino interaction vertex and the sensor, IceCube event reconstruction depends on understanding the propagation of light through the ice. This paper presents the current status of modeling light propagation in South Pole ice, including the recent observation of an azimuthal anisotropy in the scattering.

  11. Determination of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) Using Total Carbon Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ekechukwu, A.A.

    2002-05-10

    Several methods have been proposed to replace the Freon(TM)-extraction method to determine total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) content. For reasons of cost, sensitivity, precision, or simplicity, none of the replacement methods are feasible for analysis of radioactive samples at our facility. We have developed a method to measure total petroleum hydrocarbon content in aqueous sample matrixes using total organic carbon (total carbon) determination. The total carbon content (TC1) of the sample is measured using a total organic carbon analyzer. The sample is then contacted with a small volume of non-pokar solvent to extract the total petroleum hydrocarbons. The total carbon content of the resultant aqueous phase of the extracted sample (TC2) is measured. Total petroleum hydrocarbon content is calculated (TPH = TC1-TC2). The resultant data are consistent with results obtained using Freon(TM) extraction followed by infrared absorbance.

  12. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Phase I Status and Initial Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strydom, Gerhard; Bostelmann, Friederike; Ivanov, Kostadin

    2014-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. One way to address the uncertainties in the HTGR analysis tools is to assess the sensitivity of critical parameters (such as the calculated maximum fuel temperature during loss of coolant accidents) to a few important input uncertainties. The input parameters were identified by engineering judgement in the past but are today typically based on a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT) process. The input parameters can also be derived from sensitivity studies and are then varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, there is often no easy way to compensate for these uncertainties. In engineering system design, a common approach for addressing performance uncertainties is to add compensating margins to the system, but with passive properties credited it is not so clear how to apply it in the case of modular HTGR heat removal path. Other more sophisticated uncertainty modelling approaches, including Monte Carlo analysis, have also been proposed and applied. Ideally one wishes to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies, and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Therefore some safety analysis calculations may use a mixture of these approaches for different parameters depending upon the particular requirements of the analysis problem involved. Sensitivity analysis can for example be used to provide information as part of an uncertainty analysis to determine best estimate plus uncertainty results to the required confidence level. In order to address uncertainty propagation in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) that officially started in 2013. Although this project focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements, many lessons can be learned from the LWR community and the significant progress already made towards a consistent methodology uncertainty analysis. In the case of LWRs the NRC has already in 1988 amended 10 CFR 50.46 to allow best-estimate (plus uncertainties) calculations of emergency core cooling system performance. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also established an Expert Group on "Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling" which finally led to the definition of the "Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs". The CRP on HTGR UAM will follow as far as possible the on-going OECD Light Water Reactor UAM benchmark activity.

  13. Model development and data uncertainty integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swinhoe, Martyn Thomas

    2015-12-02

    The effect of data uncertainties is discussed, with the epithermal neutron multiplicity counter as an illustrative example. Simulation using MCNP6, cross section perturbations and correlations are addressed, along with the effect of the 240Pu spontaneous fission neutron spectrum, the effect of P(ν) for 240Pu spontaneous fission, and the effect of spontaneous fission and (α,n) intensity. The effect of nuclear data is the product of the initial uncertainty and the sensitivity -- both need to be estimated. In conclusion, a multi-parameter variation method has been demonstrated, the most significant parameters are the basic emission rates of spontaneous fission and (α,n) processes, and uncertainties and important data depend on the analysis technique chosen.

  14. Detonation propagation in a high loss configuration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, Scott I; Shepherd, Joseph E

    2009-01-01

    This work presents an experimental study of detonation wave propagation in tubes with inner diameters (ID) comparable to the mixture cell size. Propane-oxygen mixtures were used in two test section tubes with inner diameters of 1.27 mm and 6.35 mm. For both test sections, the initial pressure of stoichiometric mixtures was varied to determine the effect on detonation propagation. For the 6.35 mm tube, the equivalence ratio {phi} (where the mixture was {phi} C{sub 3}H{sub 8} + 50{sub 2}) was also varied. Detonations were found to propagate in mixtures with cell sizes as large as five times the diameter of the tube. However, under these conditions, significant losses were observed, resulting in wave propagation velocities as slow as 40% of the CJ velocity U{sub CJ}. A review of relevant literature is presented, followed by experimental details and data. Observed velocity deficits are predicted using models that account for boundary layer growth inside detonation waves.

  15. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that

  16. The various manifestations of collisionless dissipation in wave propagation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benisti, Didier; Morice, Olivier; Gremillet, Laurent

    2012-06-15

    The propagation of an electrostatic wave packet inside a collisionless and initially Maxwellian plasma is always dissipative because of the irreversible acceleration of the electrons by the wave. Then, in the linear regime, the wave packet is Landau damped, so that in the reference frame moving at the group velocity, the wave amplitude decays exponentially with time. In the nonlinear regime, once phase mixing has occurred and when the electron motion is nearly adiabatic, the damping rate is strongly reduced compared to the Landau one, so that the wave amplitude remains nearly constant along the characteristics. Yet, we show here that the electrons are still globally accelerated by the wave packet, and in one dimension, this leads to a non local amplitude dependence of the group velocity. As a result, a freely propagating wave packet would shrink, and therefore, so would its total energy. In more than one dimension, not only does the magnitude of the group velocity nonlinearly vary, but also its direction. In the weakly nonlinear regime, when the collisionless damping rate is still significant compared to its linear value, the group velocity is directed towards the outside of the wave packet and tends to increase its transverse extent, while the opposite is true once the wave is essentially undamped. The impact of the nonlinear variation of the group velocity on the transverse size of the wave packet is quantified, and compared to that induced by the self-focussing due to wave front bowing.

  17. Total Eolica | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Eolica Jump to: navigation, search Name: Total Eolica Place: Spain Product: Project developer References: Total Eolica1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding...

  18. Coping with uncertainties of mercury regulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reich, K.

    2006-09-15

    The thermometer is rising as coal-fired plants cope with the uncertainties of mercury regulation. The paper deals with a diagnosis and a suggested cure. It describes the state of mercury emission rules in the different US states, many of which had laws or rules in place before the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) was promulgated.

  19. Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Fuel Kerosene Distillate Fuel Oil Distillate Fuel Oil, 15 ppm Sulfur and Under Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 15 ppm to 500 ppm Sulfur Distillate Fuel Oil, Greater than 500 ppm ...

  20. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5 or More Units Mobile Homes Energy Information Administration 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey: Preliminary Housing Characteristics Tables Million U.S. Housing Units ...

  1. Total..............................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    111.1 86.6 2,720 1,970 1,310 1,941 1,475 821 1,059 944 554 Census Region and Division Northeast.................................... 20.6 13.9 3,224 2,173 836 2,219 1,619 583 903 830 Q New England.......................... 5.5 3.6 3,365 2,154 313 2,634 1,826 Q 951 940 Q Middle Atlantic........................ 15.1 10.3 3,167 2,181 1,049 2,188 1,603 582 Q Q Q Midwest...................................... 25.6 21.0 2,823 2,239 1,624 2,356 1,669 1,336 1,081 961 778 East North

  2. Total........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    111.1 24.5 1,090 902 341 872 780 441 Census Region and Division Northeast............................................. 20.6 6.7 1,247 1,032 Q 811 788 147 New England.................................... 5.5 1.9 1,365 1,127 Q 814 748 107 Middle Atlantic.................................. 15.1 4.8 1,182 978 Q 810 800 159 Midwest................................................ 25.6 4.6 1,349 1,133 506 895 810 346 East North Central............................ 17.7 3.2 1,483 1,239 560 968 842 351

  3. Total...........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Q Table HC3.2 Living Space Characteristics by Owner-Occupied Housing Units, 2005 2 to 4 Units 5 or More Units Mobile Homes Million U.S. Housing Units Owner- Occupied Housing Units (millions) Type of Owner-Occupied Housing Unit Housing Units (millions) Single-Family Units Apartments in Buildings With-- Living Space Characteristics Detached Attached Energy Information Administration 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey: Preliminary Housing Characteristics Tables Table HC3.2 Living Space

  4. Total............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

  5. Total.............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    26.7 28.8 20.6 13.1 22.0 16.6 38.6 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer........... 35.5 17.1 10.8 4.2 1.8 1.6 10.3 20.6 Use a Personal Computer....................... 75.6 9.6 18.0 16.4 11.3 20.3 6.4 17.9 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model.................................. 58.6 7.6 14.2 13.1 9.2 14.6 5.0 14.5 Laptop Model...................................... 16.9 2.0 3.8 3.3 2.1 5.7 1.3 3.5 Hours Turned on Per Week Less than 2 Hours..............................

  6. Total..............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ,171 1,618 1,031 845 630 401 Census Region and Division Northeast................................................... 20.6 2,334 1,664 562 911 649 220 New England.......................................... 5.5 2,472 1,680 265 1,057 719 113 Middle Atlantic........................................ 15.1 2,284 1,658 670 864 627 254 Midwest...................................................... 25.6 2,421 1,927 1,360 981 781 551 East North Central.................................. 17.7 2,483 1,926 1,269

  7. Total..............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Do Not Have Cooling Equipment................ 17.8 5.3 4.7 2.8 1.9 3.1 3.6 7.5 Have Cooling Equipment............................. 93.3 21.5 24.1 17.8 11.2 18.8 13.0 31.1 Use Cooling Equipment.............................. 91.4 21.0 23.5 17.4 11.0 18.6 12.6 30.3 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............. 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 Q Q 0.5 0.8 Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System.......................................... 65.9 11.0 16.5 13.5 8.7 16.1 6.4 17.2 Without a Heat

  8. Total...............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    20.6 25.6 40.7 24.2 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ........... 35.5 6.9 8.1 14.2 6.4 Use a Personal Computer......................... 75.6 13.7 17.5 26.6 17.8 Number of Desktop PCs 1.......................................................... 50.3 9.3 11.9 18.2 11.0 2.......................................................... 16.2 2.9 3.5 5.5 4.4 3 or More............................................. 9.0 1.5 2.1 2.9 2.5 Number of Laptop PCs

  9. Total...............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0.7 21.7 6.9 12.1 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ........... 35.5 14.2 7.2 2.8 4.2 Use a Personal Computer......................... 75.6 26.6 14.5 4.1 7.9 Number of Desktop PCs 1.......................................................... 50.3 18.2 10.0 2.9 5.3 2.......................................................... 16.2 5.5 3.0 0.7 1.8 3 or More............................................. 9.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.8 Number of Laptop PCs

  10. Total...............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    26.7 28.8 20.6 13.1 22.0 16.6 38.6 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ........... 35.5 17.1 10.8 4.2 1.8 1.6 10.3 20.6 Use a Personal Computer......................... 75.6 9.6 18.0 16.4 11.3 20.3 6.4 17.9 Number of Desktop PCs 1.......................................................... 50.3 8.3 14.2 11.4 7.2 9.2 5.3 14.2 2.......................................................... 16.2 0.9 2.6 3.7 2.9 6.2 0.8 2.6 3 or More............................................. 9.0 0.4 1.2

  11. Total...............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Do Not Have Cooling Equipment................. 17.8 5.3 4.7 2.8 1.9 3.1 3.6 7.5 Have Cooling Equipment.............................. 93.3 21.5 24.1 17.8 11.2 18.8 13.0 31.1 Use Cooling Equipment............................... 91.4 21.0 23.5 17.4 11.0 18.6 12.6 30.3 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............. 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 Q Q 0.5 0.8 Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System............................................ 65.9 11.0 16.5 13.5 8.7 16.1 6.4 17.2 Without a Heat

  12. Total...............................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    47.1 19.0 22.7 22.3 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ........... 35.5 16.9 6.5 4.6 7.6 Use a Personal Computer......................... 75.6 30.3 12.5 18.1 14.7 Number of Desktop PCs 1.......................................................... 50.3 21.1 8.3 10.7 10.1 2.......................................................... 16.2 6.2 2.8 4.1 3.0 3 or More............................................. 9.0 2.9 1.4 3.2 1.6 Number of Laptop PCs

  13. Total................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    111.1 26.7 28.8 20.6 13.1 22.0 16.6 38.6 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment....... 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 Q 0.2 0.3 0.6 Have Main Space Heating Equipment.......... 109.8 26.2 28.5 20.4 13.0 21.8 16.3 37.9 Use Main Space Heating Equipment............ 109.1 25.9 28.1 20.3 12.9 21.8 16.0 37.3 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It.............. 0.8 0.3 0.3 Q Q N 0.4 0.6 Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.................................................. 58.2 12.2 14.4 11.3 7.1 13.2 7.6 18.3 Central

  14. Total.................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    49.2 15.1 15.6 11.1 7.0 5.2 8.0 Have Cooling Equipment............................... 93.3 31.3 15.1 15.6 11.1 7.0 5.2 8.0 Use Cooling Equipment................................ 91.4 30.4 14.6 15.4 11.1 6.9 5.2 7.9 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............... 1.9 1.0 0.5 Q Q Q Q Q Do Not Have Cooling Equipment................... 17.8 17.8 N N N N N N Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System............................................. 65.9 3.9 15.1 15.6 11.1 7.0 5.2 8.0 Without a Heat

  15. Total.................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    14.7 7.4 12.5 12.5 18.9 18.6 17.3 9.2 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment........ 1.2 N Q Q 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 Q Have Main Space Heating Equipment........... 109.8 14.7 7.4 12.4 12.2 18.5 18.3 17.1 9.2 Use Main Space Heating Equipment............. 109.1 14.6 7.3 12.4 12.2 18.2 18.2 17.1 9.1 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It............... 0.8 Q Q Q Q 0.3 Q N Q Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas................................................... 58.2 9.2 4.9 7.8 7.1 8.8 8.4 7.8 4.2 Central

  16. Total.................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    26.7 28.8 20.6 13.1 22.0 16.6 38.6 Cooking Appliances Frequency of Hot Meals Cooked 3 or More Times A Day.............................. 8.2 2.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.6 2 Times A Day........................................... 24.6 6.5 7.0 4.3 3.2 3.6 4.8 10.3 Once a Day................................................ 42.3 8.8 9.8 8.7 5.1 10.0 5.0 12.9 A Few Times Each Week........................... 27.2 5.6 7.2 4.7 3.3 6.3 3.2 7.5 About Once a Week................................... 3.9 1.1 1.1

  17. Total..................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    78.1 64.1 4.2 1.8 2.3 5.7 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment..................... 17.8 11.3 9.3 0.6 Q 0.4 0.9 Have Cooling Equipment................................. 93.3 66.8 54.7 3.6 1.7 1.9 4.8 Use Cooling Equipment.................................. 91.4 65.8 54.0 3.6 1.7 1.9 4.7 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it................. 1.9 1.1 0.8 Q N Q Q Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System.............................................. 65.9 51.7 43.9 2.5 0.7 1.6 3.1 Without a Heat

  18. Total..................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . 111.1 14.7 7.4 12.5 12.5 18.9 18.6 17.3 9.2 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment..................... 17.8 3.9 1.8 2.2 2.1 3.1 2.6 1.7 0.4 Have Cooling Equipment................................. 93.3 10.8 5.6 10.3 10.4 15.8 16.0 15.6 8.8 Use Cooling Equipment.................................. 91.4 10.6 5.5 10.3 10.3 15.3 15.7 15.3 8.6 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it................. 1.9 Q Q Q Q 0.6 0.4 0.3 Q Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central

  19. Total...................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    15.2 7.8 1.0 1.2 3.3 1.9 For Two Housing Units............................. 0.9 Q N Q 0.6 N Heat Pump.................................................. 9.2 7.4 0.3 Q 0.7 0.5 Portable Electric Heater............................... 1.6 0.8 Q Q Q 0.3 Other Equipment......................................... 1.9 0.7 Q Q 0.7 Q Fuel Oil........................................................... 7.7 5.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 Steam or Hot Water System........................ 4.7 2.9 Q 0.7 0.8 N For One Housing

  20. Total....................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    14.7 7.4 12.5 12.5 18.9 18.6 17.3 9.2 Household Size 1 Person.......................................................... 30.0 4.6 2.5 3.7 3.2 5.4 5.5 3.7 1.6 2 Persons......................................................... 34.8 4.3 1.9 4.4 4.1 5.9 5.3 5.5 3.4 3 Persons......................................................... 18.4 2.5 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.5 2.8 1.6 4 Persons......................................................... 15.9 1.9 0.8 1.5 1.6 3.0 2.5 3.1 1.4 5

  1. Total.......................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0.6 15.1 5.5 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ................... 35.5 6.9 5.3 1.6 Use a Personal Computer................................ 75.6 13.7 9.8 3.9 Number of Desktop PCs 1.................................................................. 50.3 9.3 6.8 2.5 2.................................................................. 16.2 2.9 1.9 1.0 3 or More..................................................... 9.0 1.5 1.1 0.4 Number of Laptop PCs

  2. Total.......................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5.6 17.7 7.9 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ................... 35.5 8.1 5.6 2.5 Use a Personal Computer................................ 75.6 17.5 12.1 5.4 Number of Desktop PCs 1.................................................................. 50.3 11.9 8.4 3.4 2.................................................................. 16.2 3.5 2.2 1.3 3 or More..................................................... 9.0 2.1 1.5 0.6 Number of Laptop PCs

  3. Total.......................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4.2 7.6 16.6 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer ................... 35.5 6.4 2.2 4.2 Use a Personal Computer................................ 75.6 17.8 5.3 12.5 Number of Desktop PCs 1.................................................................. 50.3 11.0 3.4 7.6 2.................................................................. 16.2 4.4 1.3 3.1 3 or More..................................................... 9.0 2.5 0.7 1.8 Number of Laptop PCs

  4. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    25.6 40.7 24.2 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 Q Q Q 0.7 Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 20.5 25.6 40.3 23.4 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 20.5 25.6 40.1 22.9 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 N N Q 0.6 Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 11.4 18.4 13.6 14.7 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7 6.1

  5. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    15.1 5.5 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 Q Q Q Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 20.5 15.1 5.4 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 20.5 15.1 5.4 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 N N N Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 11.4 9.1 2.3 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7 6.1 5.3 0.8 For One Housing

  6. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5.6 17.7 7.9 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 Q Q N Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 25.6 17.7 7.9 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 25.6 17.7 7.9 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 N N N Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 18.4 13.1 5.3 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7 16.2 11.6 4.7 For One Housing

  7. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0.7 21.7 6.9 12.1 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 Q Q N Q Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 40.3 21.4 6.9 12.0 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 40.1 21.2 6.9 12.0 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 Q Q N N Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 13.6 5.6 2.3 5.7 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7 11.0 4.4

  8. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4.2 7.6 16.6 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 0.7 Q 0.7 Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 23.4 7.5 16.0 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 22.9 7.4 15.4 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 0.6 Q 0.5 Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 14.7 4.6 10.1 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7 11.4 4.0 7.4 For One

  9. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7.1 7.0 8.0 12.1 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 Q Q Q 0.2 Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 7.1 6.8 7.9 11.9 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 7.1 6.6 7.9 11.4 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 N Q N 0.5 Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 3.8 0.4 3.8 8.4 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7 1.8 Q 3.1 6.0

  10. Total........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7.1 19.0 22.7 22.3 Do Not Have Space Heating Equipment............... 1.2 0.7 Q 0.2 Q Have Main Space Heating Equipment.................. 109.8 46.3 18.9 22.5 22.1 Use Main Space Heating Equipment.................... 109.1 45.6 18.8 22.5 22.1 Have Equipment But Do Not Use It...................... 0.8 0.7 Q N N Main Heating Fuel and Equipment Natural Gas.......................................................... 58.2 27.0 11.9 14.9 4.3 Central Warm-Air Furnace................................ 44.7

  11. Total...........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0.6 15.1 5.5 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment............................. 17.8 4.0 2.4 1.7 Have Cooling Equipment.......................................... 93.3 16.5 12.8 3.8 Use Cooling Equipment........................................... 91.4 16.3 12.6 3.7 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it.......................... 1.9 0.3 Q Q Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System........................................................ 65.9 6.0 5.2 0.8 Without a Heat

  12. Total...........................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4.2 7.6 16.6 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment............................. 17.8 10.3 3.1 7.3 Have Cooling Equipment.......................................... 93.3 13.9 4.5 9.4 Use Cooling Equipment........................................... 91.4 12.9 4.3 8.5 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it.......................... 1.9 1.0 Q 0.8 Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System........................................................ 65.9 10.5 3.9 6.5 Without a Heat

  13. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Do Not Have Cooling Equipment............................... 17.8 4.0 2.1 1.4 10.3 Have Cooling Equipment............................................ 93.3 16.5 23.5 39.3 13.9 Use Cooling Equipment............................................. 91.4 16.3 23.4 38.9 12.9 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............................ 1.9 0.3 Q 0.5 1.0 Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System........................................................ 65.9 6.0 17.3 32.1 10.5 Without a Heat

  14. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Cooking Appliances Frequency of Hot Meals Cooked 3 or More Times A Day......................................... 8.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 2 Times A Day...................................................... 24.6 4.0 2.7 1.2 Once a Day........................................................... 42.3 7.9 5.4 2.5 A Few Times Each Week...................................... 27.2 6.0 4.8 1.2 About Once a Week.............................................. 3.9 0.6 0.5 Q Less Than Once a

  15. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Cooking Appliances Frequency of Hot Meals Cooked 3 or More Times A Day......................................... 8.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 2 Times A Day...................................................... 24.6 5.8 3.5 2.3 Once a Day........................................................... 42.3 10.7 7.8 2.9 A Few Times Each Week...................................... 27.2 5.6 4.0 1.6 About Once a Week.............................................. 3.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 Less Than Once a

  16. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Do Not Have Cooling Equipment............................... 17.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.3 Have Cooling Equipment............................................ 93.3 39.3 20.9 6.7 11.8 Use Cooling Equipment............................................. 91.4 38.9 20.7 6.6 11.7 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............................ 1.9 0.5 Q Q Q Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System........................................................ 65.9 32.1 17.6 5.2 9.3 Without a Heat

  17. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Cooking Appliances Frequency of Hot Meals Cooked 3 or More Times A Day......................................... 8.2 2.6 0.7 1.9 2 Times A Day...................................................... 24.6 6.6 2.0 4.6 Once a Day........................................................... 42.3 8.8 2.9 5.8 A Few Times Each Week...................................... 27.2 4.7 1.5 3.1 About Once a Week.............................................. 3.9 0.7 Q 0.6 Less Than Once a

  18. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Do Not Have Cooling Equipment............................... 17.8 10.3 3.1 7.3 Have Cooling Equipment............................................ 93.3 13.9 4.5 9.4 Use Cooling Equipment............................................. 91.4 12.9 4.3 8.5 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............................ 1.9 1.0 Q 0.8 Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System........................................................ 65.9 10.5 3.9 6.5 Without a Heat

  19. Total.............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Do Not Have Cooling Equipment............................... 17.8 8.5 2.7 2.6 4.0 Have Cooling Equipment............................................ 93.3 38.6 16.2 20.1 18.4 Use Cooling Equipment............................................. 91.4 37.8 15.9 19.8 18.0 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............................ 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 Type of Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System........................................................ 65.9 25.8 10.9 16.6 12.5 Without a Heat

  20. Total..............................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    111.1 7.1 7.0 8.0 12.1 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer .......................... 35.5 3.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 Use a Personal Computer....................................... 75.6 4.2 5.0 5.3 9.0 Number of Desktop PCs 1......................................................................... 50.3 3.1 3.4 3.4 5.4 2......................................................................... 16.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 2.2 3 or More............................................................ 9.0 0.3

  1. Total.................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7.1 7.0 8.0 12.1 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment................................... 17.8 1.8 Q Q 4.9 Have Cooling Equipment................................................ 93.3 5.3 7.0 7.8 7.2 Use Cooling Equipment................................................. 91.4 5.3 7.0 7.7 6.6 Have Equipment But Do Not Use it............................... 1.9 Q N Q 0.6 Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System.............................................................. 65.9 1.1 6.4 6.4 5.4 Without a

  2. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    25.6 40.7 24.2 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer.................................. 35.5 6.9 8.1 14.2 6.4 Use a Personal Computer.............................................. 75.6 13.7 17.5 26.6 17.8 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model......................................................... 58.6 10.4 14.1 20.5 13.7 Laptop Model............................................................. 16.9 3.3 3.4 6.1 4.1 Hours Turned on Per Week Less than 2

  3. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5.6 17.7 7.9 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer.................................. 35.5 8.1 5.6 2.5 Use a Personal Computer.............................................. 75.6 17.5 12.1 5.4 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model......................................................... 58.6 14.1 10.0 4.0 Laptop Model............................................................. 16.9 3.4 2.1 1.3 Hours Turned on Per Week Less than 2

  4. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Cooking Appliances Frequency of Hot Meals Cooked 3 or More Times A Day................................................. 8.2 3.0 1.6 0.3 1.1 2 Times A Day.............................................................. 24.6 8.3 4.2 1.3 2.7 Once a Day................................................................... 42.3 15.0 8.1 2.7 4.2 A Few Times Each Week............................................. 27.2 10.9 6.0 1.8 3.1 About Once a Week..................................................... 3.9

  5. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer.................................. 35.5 14.2 7.2 2.8 4.2 Use a Personal Computer.............................................. 75.6 26.6 14.5 4.1 7.9 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model......................................................... 58.6 20.5 11.0 3.4 6.1 Laptop Model............................................................. 16.9 6.1 3.5 0.7 1.9 Hours Turned on Per Week Less than 2

  6. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4.2 7.6 16.6 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer.................................. 35.5 6.4 2.2 4.2 Use a Personal Computer.............................................. 75.6 17.8 5.3 12.5 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model......................................................... 58.6 13.7 4.2 9.5 Laptop Model............................................................. 16.9 4.1 1.1 3.0 Hours Turned on Per Week Less than 2

  7. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Cooking Appliances Frequency of Hot Meals Cooked 3 or More Times A Day................................................. 8.2 3.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 2 Times A Day.............................................................. 24.6 10.8 4.1 4.3 5.5 Once a Day................................................................... 42.3 17.0 7.2 8.7 9.3 A Few Times Each Week............................................. 27.2 11.4 4.7 6.4 4.8 About Once a Week.....................................................

  8. Total....................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    111.1 47.1 19.0 22.7 22.3 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer.................................. 35.5 16.9 6.5 4.6 7.6 Use a Personal Computer.............................................. 75.6 30.3 12.5 18.1 14.7 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model......................................................... 58.6 22.9 9.8 14.1 11.9 Laptop Model............................................................. 16.9 7.4 2.7 4.0 2.9 Hours Turned on Per Week Less than 2

  9. Total.........................................................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ..... 111.1 7.1 7.0 8.0 12.1 Personal Computers Do Not Use a Personal Computer...................................... 35.5 3.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 Use a Personal Computer.................................................. 75.6 4.2 5.0 5.3 9.0 Most-Used Personal Computer Type of PC Desk-top Model............................................................. 58.6 3.2 3.9 4.0 6.7 Laptop Model................................................................. 16.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.4 Hours Turned on Per Week Less

  10. Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic CellModule Shipments Report.'rounding. ... Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic CellModule Shipments Report.' CellModule ...

  11. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 41.8 2,603 2,199 1,654 941 795 598 1-Car Garage...... 9.5 2,064 1,664 1,039 775 624 390 2-Car Garage......

  12. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... Type of Glass in Windows Single-pane Glass...... 27.4 ... Q Q N Q N N Proportion of Windows Replaced All......

  13. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... Type of Glass in Windows Single-pane Glass......Q Q Q Q Proportion of Windows Replaced All......

  14. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System...... 65.9 25.8 10.9 16.6 12.5 Without a Heat Pump......

  15. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System...... 65.9 6.0 17.3 32.1 10.5 Without a Heat Pump......

  16. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System...... 65.9 47.5 4.0 2.8 7.9 3.7 Without a Heat Pump...... 53.5 ...

  17. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Air-Conditioning Equipment 1, 2 Central System...... 65.9 32.1 17.6 5.2 9.3 Without a Heat Pump......

  18. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5.6 17.7 7.9 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment...... 17.8 2.1 1.8 0.3 Have Cooling Equipment...... 93.3 23.5 16.0 7.5 Use ...

  19. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... 111.1 20.6 15.1 5.5 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment...... 17.8 4.0 2.4 1.7 Have Cooling Equipment...... 93.3 ...

  20. Total..........................................................

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    33.0 8.0 3.4 5.9 14.4 1.2 Do Not Have Cooling Equipment...... 17.8 6.5 1.6 0.9 1.3 2.4 0.2 Have Cooling Equipment...... 93.3 26.5 6.5 2.5 ...

  1. Method and apparatus for charged particle propagation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hershcovitch, A.

    1996-11-26

    A method and apparatus are provided for propagating charged particles from a vacuum to a higher pressure region. A generator includes an evacuated chamber having a gun for discharging a beam of charged particles such as an electron beam or ion beam. The beam is discharged through a beam exit in the chamber into a higher pressure region. A plasma interface is disposed at the beam exit and includes a plasma channel for bounding a plasma maintainable between a cathode and an anode disposed at opposite ends thereof. The plasma channel is coaxially aligned with the beam exit for propagating the beam from the chamber, through the plasma, and into the higher pressure region. The plasma is effective for pumping down the beam exit for preventing pressure increase in the chamber and provides magnetic focusing of the beam discharged into the higher pressure region 24. 7 figs.

  2. Crack growth and propagation in metallic alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrey, W.C.; Wille, L.T.

    1996-12-01

    Using large-scale molecular dynamics simulation on a massively parallel computer, the authors have studied the initiation of cracking in a Monel-like alloy of Cu-Ni. In a low temperature 2D sample, fracture from a notch starts at a little beyond 2.5% critical strain when the propagation direction is perpendicular to a cleavage plane. The authors discuss a method of characterizing crack tip position using a measure of area around the crack tip.

  3. Electromagnetic vacuum of complex media: Dipole emission versus light propagation, vacuum energy, and local field factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donaire, M.

    2011-02-15

    We offer a unified approach to several phenomena related to the electromagnetic vacuum of a complex medium made of point electric dipoles. To this aim, we apply the linear response theory to the computation of the polarization field propagator and study the spectrum of vacuum fluctuations. The physical distinction among the local density of states which enter the spectra of light propagation, total dipole emission, coherent emission, total vacuum energy, and Schwinger-bulk energy is made clear. Analytical expressions for the spectrum of dipole emission and for the vacuum energy are derived. Their respective relations with the spectrum of external light and with the Schwinger-bulk energy are found. The light spectrum and the Schwinger-bulk energy are determined by the Dyson propagator. The emission spectrum and the total vacuum energy are determined by the polarization propagator. An exact relationship of proportionality between both propagators is found in terms of local field factors. A study of the nature of stimulated emission from a single dipole is carried out. Regarding coherent emission, it contains two components. A direct one which is transferred radiatively and directly from the emitter into the medium and whose spectrum is that of external light. And an indirect one which is radiated by induced dipoles. The induction is mediated by one (and only one) local field factor. Regarding the vacuum energy, we find that in addition to the Schwinger-bulk energy the vacuum energy of an effective medium contains local field contributions proportional to the resonant frequency and to the spectral line width.

  4. Information propagation for interacting-particle systems (Journal Article)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    | SciTech Connect Information propagation for interacting-particle systems Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Information propagation for interacting-particle systems We study the speed at which information propagates through systems of interacting quantum particles moving on a regular lattice and show that for a certain class of initial conditions there exists a maximum speed of sound at which information can propagate. Our argument applies equally to quantum spins, bosons such as

  5. Uncertainty in BWR power during ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    A study was undertaken to improve our understanding of BWR conditions following the closure of main steam isolation valves and the failure of reactor trip. Of particular interest was the power during the period when the core had reached a quasi-equilibrium condition with a natural circulation flow rate determined by the water level in the downcomer. Insights into the uncertainity in the calculation of this power with sophisticated computer codes were quantified using a simple model which relates power to the principal thermal-hydraulic variables and reactivity coefficients; the latter representing the link between the thermal-hydraulics and the neutronics. Assumptions regarding the uncertainty in these variables and coefficients were then used to determine the uncertainty in power.

  6. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-09-03

    Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictions of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.

  7. Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDonnell, J. D.; Schunck, N.; Higdon, D.; Sarich, J.; Wild, S. M.; Nazarewicz, W.

    2015-03-24

    Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. In addition, the example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

  8. Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDonnell, J. D.; Schunck, N.; Higdon, D.; Sarich, J.; Wild, S. M.; Nazarewicz, W.

    2015-03-24

    Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. As a result, the example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

  9. Empirical and physics based mathematical models of uranium hydride decomposition kinetics with quantified uncertainties.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salloum, Maher N.; Gharagozloo, Patricia E.

    2013-10-01

    Metal particle beds have recently become a major technique for hydrogen storage. In order to extract hydrogen from such beds, it is crucial to understand the decomposition kinetics of the metal hydride. We are interested in obtaining a a better understanding of the uranium hydride (UH3) decomposition kinetics. We first developed an empirical model by fitting data compiled from different experimental studies in the literature and quantified the uncertainty resulting from the scattered data. We found that the decomposition time range predicted by the obtained kinetics was in a good agreement with published experimental results. Secondly, we developed a physics based mathematical model to simulate the rate of hydrogen diffusion in a hydride particle during the decomposition. We used this model to simulate the decomposition of the particles for temperatures ranging from 300K to 1000K while propagating parametric uncertainty and evaluated the kinetics from the results. We compared the kinetics parameters derived from the empirical and physics based models and found that the uncertainty in the kinetics predicted by the physics based model covers the scattered experimental data. Finally, we used the physics-based kinetics parameters to simulate the effects of boundary resistances and powder morphological changes during decomposition in a continuum level model. We found that the species change within the bed occurring during the decomposition accelerates the hydrogen flow by increasing the bed permeability, while the pressure buildup and the thermal barrier forming at the wall significantly impede the hydrogen extraction.

  10. Minimal position-velocity uncertainty wave packets in relativistic and non-relativistic quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Al-Hashimi, M.H. Wiese, U.-J.

    2009-12-15

    We consider wave packets of free particles with a general energy-momentum dispersion relation E(p). The spreading of the wave packet is determined by the velocity v={partial_derivative}{sub p}E. The position-velocity uncertainty relation {delta}x{delta}v{>=}1/2 |<{partial_derivative}{sub p}{sup 2}E>| is saturated by minimal uncertainty wave packets {phi}(p)=Aexp(-{alpha}E(p)+{beta}p). In addition to the standard minimal Gaussian wave packets corresponding to the non-relativistic dispersion relation E(p)=p{sup 2}/2m, analytic calculations are presented for the spreading of wave packets with minimal position-velocity uncertainty product for the lattice dispersion relation E(p)=-cos(pa)/ma{sup 2} as well as for the relativistic dispersion relation E(p)={radical}(p{sup 2}+m{sup 2}). The boost properties of moving relativistic wave packets as well as the propagation of wave packets in an expanding Universe are also discussed.

  11. Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McDonnell, J. D.; Schunck, N.; Higdon, D.; Sarich, J.; Wild, S. M.; Nazarewicz, W.

    2015-03-24

    Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squaresmore » optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. In addition, the example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.« less

  12. Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area J. E. Christy, C. N. Long, and T. R. Shippert Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington Interpolation Grids Across the SGP Network Area The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates a network of surface radiation measurement sites across north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. This Southern Great Plains (SGP) network consists of 21 sites unevenly spaced from 95.5 to 99.5

  13. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-09-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.

  14. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (δ15N and δ18O) but all methods testedmore » are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.« less

  15. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (?15N and ?18O) but all methods tested are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.

  16. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  17. Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

    2013-04-28

    A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

  18. Determination of Total Solids in Biomass and Total Dissolved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... The published moisture loss on drying for sodium tartrate is 15.62% (84.38% total solids). 14.6 Sample size: Determined by sample matrix. 14.7 Sample storage: Samples should be ...

  19. An Empirical Study of Infrasonic Propagation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Paul Mutschlecner; Rodney W. Whitaker; Lawrence H. Auer

    1999-10-01

    Observations of atmospheric nuclear tests carried out at the Nevada Test Site from 1951 to 1958 provided data for an empirical investigation of how infrasonic signals are propagated to distances of about 250 km. Those observations and the analysis documented in this report involved signal amplitudes and average velocities and included three classes of signals: stratospheric, thermospheric, and tropospheric/surface. The authors' analysis showed that stratospheric winds have a dominant effect upon stratospheric signal amplitudes. The report outlines a method for normalizing stratospheric signal amplitudes for the effects of upper atmospheric winds and presents equations for predicting or normalizing amplitude and average velocity for the three types of signals.

  20. Uncertainty Analysis and Bayesian Calibration | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty Analysis and Bayesian Calibration Uncertainty Analysis and Bayesian Calibration Argonne researchers are working to understand the uncertainties involved in building energy modeling and the energy saving predictions and costs that are typically used when making decisions about a building during design, construction, and operation, or when considering a retrofit. This work is identifying and quantifying the uncertainty in different parameters in energy models as well as in the energy

  1. TotalView Training 2015

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    TotalView Training 2015 TotalView Training 2015 NERSC will host an in-depth training course on TotalView, a graphical parallel debugger developed by Rogue Wave Software, on Thursday, March 26, 2015. This will be provided by Rogue Wave Software staff members. The training will include a lecture and demo sessions in the morning, followed by a hands-on parallel debugging session in the afternoon. Location This event will be presented online using WebEx technology and in person at NERSC Oakland

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  3. HPC Analytics Support. Requirements for Uncertainty Quantification Benchmarks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Purohit, Sumit; Rodriguez, Luke R.

    2015-05-01

    This report outlines techniques for extending benchmark generation products so they support uncertainty quantification by benchmarked systems. We describe how uncertainty quantification requirements can be presented to candidate analytical tools supporting SPARQL. We describe benchmark data sets for evaluating uncertainty quantification, as well as an approach for using our benchmark generator to produce data sets for generating benchmark data sets.

  4. Entropic uncertainty relations in multidimensional position and momentum spaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang Yichen

    2011-05-15

    Commutator-based entropic uncertainty relations in multidimensional position and momentum spaces are derived, twofold generalizing previous entropic uncertainty relations for one-mode states. They provide optimal lower bounds and imply the multidimensional variance-based uncertainty principle. The article concludes with an open conjecture.

  5. Method and apparatus for charged particle propagation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hershcovitch, Ady (Mount Sinai, NY)

    1996-11-26

    A method and apparatus are provided for propagating charged particles from a vacuum to a higher pressure region. A generator 14,14b includes an evacuated chamber 16a,b having a gun 18,18b for discharging a beam of charged particles such as an electron beam 12 or ion beam 12b. The beam 12,12b is discharged through a beam exit 22 in the chamber 16a,b into a higher pressure region 24. A plasma interface 34 is disposed at the beam exit 22 and includes a plasma channel 38 for bounding a plasma 40 maintainable between a cathode 42 and an anode 44 disposed at opposite ends thereof. The plasma channel 38 is coaxially aligned with the beam exit 22 for propagating the beam 12,12b from the chamber 16a,b, through the plasma 40, and into the higher pressure region 24. The plasma 40 is effective for pumping down the beam exit 22 for preventing pressure increase in the chamber 16a,b, and provides magnetic focusing of the beam 12,12b discharged into the higher pressure region 24.

  6. Neutrino emission in the jet propagation process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, D.; Dai, Z. G.

    2014-07-20

    Relativistic jets are universal in long-duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) models. Before breaking out, they must propagate in the progenitor envelope along with a forward shock and a reverse shock forming at the jet head. Both electrons and protons will be accelerated by the shocks. High-energy neutrinos could be produced by these protons interacting with stellar materials and electron-radiating photons. The jet will probably be collimated, which may have a strong effect on the final neutrino flux. Under the assumption of a power-law stellar-envelope density profile ??r {sup ?} with index ?, we calculate the neutrino emission flux by these shocks for low-luminosity GRBs (LL-GRBs) and ultra-long GRBs (UL-GRBs) in different collimation regimes, using the jet propagation framework developed by Bromberg et al. We find that LL-GRBs and UL-GRBs are capable of producing detectable high-energy neutrinos up to ?PeV, from which the final neutrino spectrum can be obtained. Further, we conclude that a larger ? corresponds to greater neutrino flux at the high-energy end (?PeV) and to higher maximum neutrino energy as well. However, such differences are so small that it is not promising for us to be able to distinguish these in observations, given the energy resolution we have now.

  7. ARM - Measurement - Total cloud water

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    cloud water ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Measurement : Total cloud water The...

  8. U.S. Total Exports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    CA Otay Mesa, CA Alamo, TX Clint, TX Del Rio, TX Eagle Pass, TX El Paso, TX Freeport, TX Hidalgo, TX Laredo, TX McAllen, TX Penitas, TX Rio Bravo, TX Rio Grande, TX Roma, TX Total ...

  9. Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    and 1994 Vehicle Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total 1993 Family Income Below Poverty Line Eli- gible for Fed- eral Assist- ance 1 RSE Row Factor: Less than 5,000 5,000...

  10. 2014 Total Electric Industry- Customers

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Customers (Data from forms EIA-861- schedules 4A, 4B, 4D, EIA-861S and EIA-861U) State Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Total New England 6,243,013 862,269 28,017 8 ...

  11. "2014 Total Electric Industry- Customers"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Customers" "(Data from forms EIA-861- schedules 4A, 4B, 4D, EIA-861S and EIA-861U)" "State","Residential","Commercial","Industrial","Transportation","Total" "New England",6243013,8...

  12. Tutorial examples for uncertainty quantification methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Bord, Sarah

    2015-08-01

    This report details the work accomplished during my 2015 SULI summer internship at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, CA. During this internship, I worked on multiple tasks with the common goal of making uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods more accessible to the general scientific community. As part of my work, I created a comprehensive numerical integration example to incorporate into the user manual of a UQ software package. Further, I developed examples involving heat transfer through a window to incorporate into tutorial lectures that serve as an introduction to UQ methods.

  13. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel

  14. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per

  15. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has

  16. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series

  17. SWEPP PAN assay system uncertainty analysis: Passive mode measurements of graphite waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, Woo Y.

    1997-07-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the U.S. Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Golden, Colorado. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. To this end a modified statistical sampling and verification approach has been developed to determine the total uncertainty of a PAN measurement. In this approach the total performance of the PAN nondestructive assay system is simulated using computer models of the assay system and the resultant output is compared with the known input to assess the total uncertainty. This paper is one of a series of reports quantifying the results of the uncertainty analysis of the PAN system measurements for specific waste types and measurement modes. In particular this report covers passive mode measurements of weapons grade plutonium-contaminated graphite molds contained in 208 liter drums (waste code 300). The validity of the simulation approach is verified by comparing simulated output against results from measurements using known plutonium sources and a surrogate graphite waste form drum. For actual graphite waste form conditions, a set of 50 cases covering a statistical sampling of the conditions exhibited in graphite wastes was compiled using a Latin hypercube statistical sampling approach.

  18. Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valdez, Lucas M.

    2012-07-26

    This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

  19. Digital reverse propagation in focusing Kerr media

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goy, Alexandre; Psaltis, Demetri

    2011-03-15

    Lenses allow the formation of clear images in homogeneous linear media. Holography is an alternative imaging method, but its use is limited to cases in which it provides an advantage, such as three-dimensional imaging. In nonlinear media, lenses no longer work. The light produces intensity-dependent aberrations. The reverse propagation method used in digital holography to form images from recorded holograms works even in Kerr media [M. Tsang, D. Psaltis, and F. G. Omenetto, Opt. Lett. 28, 1873 (2003).]. The principle has been experimentally demonstrated recently in defocusing media [C. Barsi, W.Wan, and J.W. Fleischer, Nat. Photonics 3, 211 (2009).]. Here, we report experimental results in focusing media.

  20. Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed Media

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed Media Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Equivalent Continuum Modeling for Shock Wave Propagation in Jointed Media This study presents discrete and continuum simulations of shock wave propagating through jointed media. The simulations were performed using the Lagrangian hydrocode GEODYN-L with joints treated explicitly using an advanced contact algorithm. They studied both

  1. Laser Propagation in Nanostructured Ultra-Low-Density Materials (Technical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Laser Propagation in Nanostructured Ultra-Low-Density Materials Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Laser Propagation in Nanostructured Ultra-Low-Density Materials The nanostructure of very-low-density aerogels (< 10 mg/cm3) affects the laser heating and propagation of the subsequent heat front. Simulations treat these materials as an atomistic medium without any structure differentiating between

  2. Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Nkei, Bertrand [ORNL; Newman, David E [University of Alaska

    2005-09-01

    We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

  3. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

  4. Experimental X-ray characterization of Gekko XII laser propagation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Experimental X-ray characterization of Gekko XII laser propagation through very low ... Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Experimental X-ray characterization of Gekko ...

  5. Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured Materials. Abstract not provided. Authors: Dingreville, Remi Philippe Michel ; Robbins, Joshua ; Voth, ...

  6. Wave propagation in anisotropic elastic materials and curvilinear...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Wave propagation in anisotropic elastic materials and curvilinear coordinates using a summation-by-parts finite difference method Citation Details In-Document...

  7. Wave propagation in anisotropic elastic materials and curvilinear...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wave propagation in anisotropic elastic materials and curvilinear coordinates using a summation-by-parts finite difference method Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Wave...

  8. Wave Energy Converter Effects on Nearshore Wave Propagation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Converter Effects on Nearshore Wave Propagation Jesse Roberts 1 , Grace Chang *2 , Craig Jones *3 Sandia National Laboratories 1515 Eubank SE, Albuquerque, NM 87123 USA 1...

  9. Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in Laser-Produced Underdense...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: Supersonic Heat Wave Propagation in Laser-Produced Underdense Plasma for Efficient X-Ray Generation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Supersonic Heat Wave...

  10. Microsoft Word - EPA 6 Analysis of Fracture Propagation_final...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fracture Propagation, Fluid Flow, and Geomechanics of Water-Based Hydraulic Fracturing in ... induced by hydraulic fracturing with water injection, using numerical simulation. ...

  11. CATEGORY Total Procurement Total Small Business Small Disadvantaged

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    CATEGORY Total Procurement Total Small Business Small Disadvantaged Business Woman Owned Small Business HubZone Small Business Veteran-Owned Small Business Service Disabled Veteran Owned Small Business FY 2013 Dollars Accomplished $1,049,087,940 $562,676,028 $136,485,766 $106,515,229 $12,080,258 $63,473,852 $28,080,960 FY 2013 % Accomplishment 54.40% 13.00% 10.20% 1.20% 6.60% 2.70% FY 2014 Dollars Accomplished $868,961,755 $443,711,175 $92,478,522 $88,633,031 $29,867,820 $43,719,452 $26,826,374

  12. Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

    2011-11-30

    In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

  13. ENERGY CONTENT AND PROPAGATION IN TRANSVERSE SOLAR ATMOSPHERIC WAVES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, M.; Van Doorsselaere, T.; Soler, R.; Verth, G.

    2013-05-10

    Recently, a significant amount of transverse wave energy has been estimated propagating along solar atmospheric magnetic fields. However, these estimates have been made with the classic bulk Alfven wave model which assumes a homogeneous plasma. In this paper, the kinetic, magnetic, and total energy densities and the flux of energy are computed for transverse MHD waves in one-dimensional cylindrical flux tube models with a piecewise constant or continuous radial density profile. There are fundamental deviations from the properties for classic bulk Alfven waves. (1) There is no local equipartition between kinetic and magnetic energy. (2) The flux of energy and the velocity of energy transfer have, in addition to a component parallel to the magnetic field, components in the planes normal to the magnetic field. (3) The energy densities and the flux of energy vary spatially, contrary to the case of classic bulk Alfven waves. This last property has the important consequence that the energy flux computed with the well known expression for bulk Alfven waves could overestimate the real flux by a factor in the range 10-50, depending on the flux tube equilibrium properties.

  14. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  16. A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report (Program Document) | SciTech Connect A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams,

  17. Entanglement criteria via concave-function uncertainty relations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang Yichen

    2010-07-15

    A general theorem as a necessary condition for the separability of quantum states in both finite and infinite dimensional systems, based on concave-function uncertainty relations, is derived. Two special cases of the general theorem are stronger than two known entanglement criteria based on the Shannon entropic uncertainty relation and the Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation, respectively; other special cases are able to detect entanglement where some famous entanglement criteria fail.

  18. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  19. Results for Phase I of the IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strydom, Gerhard; Bostelmann, Friederike; Yoon, Su Jong

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) has its own peculiarities, coated particle design, large graphite quantities, different materials and high temperatures that also require other simulation requirements. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the HTR-PM (INET, China). This report summarizes the contributions of the HTGR Methods Simulation group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) up to this point of the CRP. The activities at INL have been focused so far on creating the problem specifications for the prismatic design, as well as providing reference solutions for the exercises defined for Phase I. An overview is provided of the HTGR UAM objectives and scope, and the detailed specifications for Exercises I-1, I-2, I-3 and I-4 are also included here for completeness. The main focus of the report is the compilation and discussion of reference results for Phase I (i.e. for input parameters at their nominal or best-estimate values), which is defined as the first step of the uncertainty quantification process. These reference results can be used by other CRP participants for comparison with other codes or their own reference results. The status on the Monte Carlo modeling of the experimental VHTRC facility is also discussed. Reference results were obtained for the neutronics stand-alone cases (Ex. I-1 and Ex. I-2) using the (relatively new) Monte Carlo code Serpent, and comparisons were performed with the more established Monte Carlo codes MCNP and KENO-VI. For the thermal-fluids stand-alone cases (Ex. I-3 and I-4) the commercial CFD code CFX was utilized to obtain reference results that can be compared with lower fidelity tools.

  20. Propagation studies of metastable intermolecular composites (MIC).

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Son, S. F.; Busse, J. R.; Asay, B. W.; Peterson, P. D.; Mang, J. T.; Bockmon, B.; Pantoya, M.

    2002-01-01

    Thermite materials are attractive energetic materials because the reactions are highly exothermic, have high energy densities, and high temperatures of combustion. However, the application of thermite materials has been limited because of the relative slow release of energy compared to other energetic materials. Engineered nano-scale composite energetic materials, such as Al/MoO{sub 3}, show promise for additional energetic material applications because they can react very rapidly. The composite material studied in this work consists of tailored, ultra-fine grain (30-200 nm diameter) aluminum particles that dramatically increase energy release rates of these thermite materials. These reactant clusters of fuel and oxidizer particles are in nearly atomic scale proximity to each other but are constrained from reaction until triggered. Despite the growing importance of nano-scale energetic materials, even the most basic combustion characteristics of these materials have not been thoroughly studied. This paper reports initial studies of the ignition and combustion of metastable intermolecular composites (MIC) materials. The goals were lo obtain an improved understanding of flame propagation mechanisms and combustion behaviors associated with nano-structured energetic materials. Information on issues such as reaction rate and behavior as a function of composition (mixture ratio), initial static charge, and particle size are essential and will allow scientists to design applications incorporating the benefits of these compounds. The materials have been characterized, specifically focusing on particle size, shape, distribution and morphology.

  1. Effect of Resolution on Propagating Detonation Wave

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menikoff, Ralph

    2014-07-10

    Simulations of the cylinder test are used to illustrate the effect of mesh resolution on a propagating detonation wave. For this study we use the xRage code with the SURF burn model for PBX 9501. The adaptive mesh capability of xRage is used to vary the resolution of the reaction zone. We focus on two key properties: the detonation speed and the cylinder wall velocity. The latter is related to the release isentrope behind the detonation wave. As the reaction zone is refined (2 to 15 cells for cell size of 62 to 8?m), both the detonation speed and final wall velocity change by a small amount; less than 1 per cent. The detonation speed decreases with coarser resolution. Even when the reaction zone is grossly under-resolved (cell size twice the reaction-zone width of the burn model) the wall velocity is within a per cent and the detonation speed is low by only 2 per cent.

  2. A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    0 A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report E Campos DL Sisterson October 2015 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work ...

  3. October 16, 2014 Webinar- Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Webinar October 16, 2014, 11 am – 12:40 pm EDT: Dr. Paul Black (Neptune, Inc), Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty

  4. Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy A team of Sandia experts in aerospace engineering, scientific computing, and mathematics ...

  5. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore » of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (σ/E = 7 · 10⁻⁵) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (σ/E = 14 · 10⁻⁵).« less

  6. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Talou, Patrick Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nazarewicz, Witold University of Tennessee, Knoxville,...

  7. Output-Based Error Estimation and Adaptation for Uncertainty...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Output-Based Error Estimation and Adaptation for Uncertainty Quantification Isaac M. Asher and Krzysztof J. Fidkowski University of Michigan US National Congress on Computational...

  8. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  9. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models ...

  10. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  11. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  12. Nonproliferation Uncertainties, a Major Barrier to Used Nuclear...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Barrier to Used Nuclear Fuel Recycle in the United States Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Nonproliferation Uncertainties, a Major Barrier to Used Nuclear Fuel Recycle in ...

  13. THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODELING COEFFICIENTS USED TO PREDICT...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UNCERTAINTY IN MODELING COEFFICIENTS USED TO PREDICT ENERGY PRODUCTION USING THE SANDIA ARRAY ... relating voltage and current to solar irradiance, for crystalline silicon modules. ...

  14. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 10??).

  15. Measuring Thermal Conductivity with Raman:Capability Uncertainty...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Measuring Thermal Conductivity with Raman:Capability Uncertainty and Strain Effects. Abstract not provided. Authors: Beechem Iii, Thomas Edwin ; Yates, Luke Publication ...

  16. Uncertainties in Air Exchange using Continuous-Injection, Long...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    people to minimize experimental costs. In this article we will conduct a first-principles error analysis to estimate the uncertainties and then compare that analysis to CILTS...

  17. Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    We perform asymptotic analysis and uncertainty quantification of a phase field model for void formation and evolution in materials subject to irradiation. The parameters of the ...

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harrison, J.D.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  19. Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Burr, Tom; Croft, Stephen; Jarman, Kenneth D.

    2015-09-05

    The various methods of nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) have applications in nuclear nonproliferation, including detection and identification of illicit SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at nuclear facilities for safeguards. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one way of expressing confidence in the assay result. Consequently, NDA specialists typically quantify total uncertainty in terms of “random” and “systematic” components, and then specify error bars for the total mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but it is recognized that greater rigor is needed andmore » achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we propose improvements over GUM for NDA by illustrating UQ challenges that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. A case study is presented using low-resolution NaI spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the U-235 mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the current American Society for Testing and Materials guide for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra from a NaI detector.« less

  20. Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burr, Tom; Croft, Stephen; Jarman, Kenneth D.

    2015-09-05

    The various methods of nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) have applications in nuclear nonproliferation, including detection and identification of illicit SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at nuclear facilities for safeguards. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one way of expressing confidence in the assay result. Consequently, NDA specialists typically quantify total uncertainty in terms of “random” and “systematic” components, and then specify error bars for the total mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but it is recognized that greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we propose improvements over GUM for NDA by illustrating UQ challenges that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. A case study is presented using low-resolution NaI spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the U-235 mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the current American Society for Testing and Materials guide for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra from a NaI detector.

  1. A low order flow/acoustics interaction method for the prediction of sound propagation using 3D adaptive hybrid grids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kallinderis, Yannis; Vitsas, Panagiotis A.; Menounou, Penelope

    2012-07-15

    A low-order flow/acoustics interaction method for the prediction of sound propagation and diffraction in unsteady subsonic compressible flow using adaptive 3-D hybrid grids is investigated. The total field is decomposed into the flow field described by the Euler equations, and the acoustics part described by the Nonlinear Perturbation Equations. The method is shown capable of predicting monopole sound propagation, while employment of acoustics-guided adapted grid refinement improves the accuracy of capturing the acoustic field. Interaction of sound with solid boundaries is also examined in terms of reflection, and diffraction. Sound propagation through an unsteady flow field is examined using static and dynamic flow/acoustics coupling demonstrating the importance of the latter.

  2. Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the prior information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a laptop or desktop PC.

  3. Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the priormore » information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a laptop or desktop PC.« less

  4. Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicles driving schedules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cardoso, Goncalo; Stadler, Michael; Bozchalui, Mohammed C.; Sharma, Ratnesh; Marnay, Chris; Barbosa-Povoa, Ana; Ferrao, Paulo

    2013-12-06

    The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem.

  5. Quantifying and Reducing Curve-Fitting Uncertainty in Isc: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campanelli, Mark; Duck, Benjamin; Emery, Keith

    2015-09-28

    Current-voltage (I-V) curve measurements of photovoltaic (PV) devices are used to determine performance parameters and to establish traceable calibration chains. Measurement standards specify localized curve fitting methods, e.g., straight-line interpolation/extrapolation of the I-V curve points near short-circuit current, Isc. By considering such fits as statistical linear regressions, uncertainties in the performance parameters are readily quantified. However, the legitimacy of such a computed uncertainty requires that the model be a valid (local) representation of the I-V curve and that the noise be sufficiently well characterized. Using more data points often has the advantage of lowering the uncertainty. However, more data points can make the uncertainty in the fit arbitrarily small, and this fit uncertainty misses the dominant residual uncertainty due to so-called model discrepancy. Using objective Bayesian linear regression for straight-line fits for Isc, we investigate an evidence-based method to automatically choose data windows of I-V points with reduced model discrepancy. We also investigate noise effects. Uncertainties, aligned with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), are quantified throughout.

  6. Total Adjusted Sales of Kerosene

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    End Use: Total Residential Commercial Industrial Farm All Other Period: Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: End Use Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 View History U.S. 269,010 305,508 187,656 81,102 79,674 137,928 1984-2014 East Coast (PADD 1) 198,762 237,397 142,189 63,075 61,327 106,995 1984-2014 New England (PADD 1A) 56,661 53,363 38,448 15,983 15,991 27,500 1984-2014 Connecticut 8,800 7,437

  7. Total Imports of Residual Fuel

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 View History U.S. Total 7,281 4,217 5,941 6,842 9,010 5,030 1936-2016 PAD District 1 4,571 2,206 2,952 3,174 3,127 2,664 1981-2016 Connecticut 1995-2015 Delaware 678 85 1995-2015 Florida 351 299 932 836 858 649 1995-2016 Georgia 120 295 210 262 1995-2016 Maine 1995-2015 Maryland 1995-2015 Massachusetts 1995-2015 New Hampshire 1995-2015 New Jersey 1,575 400 1,131 1,712 1,283 843 1995-2016 New York 1,475 998 350 322 234 824 1995-2016 North Carolina

  8. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Krnv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies reduction and resilience, denying, ignoring and postponing. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  9. Propagation of nonlinearly generated harmonic spin waves in microscopic stripes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rousseau, O.; Yamada, M.; Miura, K.; Ogawa, S.; Otani, Y.

    2014-02-07

    We report on the experimental study of the propagation of nonlinearly generated harmonic spin waves in microscopic CoFeB stripes. Using an all electrical technique with coplanar waveguides, we find that two kinds of spin waves can be generated by nonlinear frequency multiplication. One has a non-uniform spatial geometry and thus requires appropriate detector geometry to be identified. The other corresponds to the resonant fundamental propagative spin waves and can be efficiently excited by double- or triple-frequency harmonics with any geometry. Nonlinear excited spin waves are particularly efficient in providing an electrical signal arising from spin wave propagation.

  10. TM01-mode microwave propagation property analysis for plasmas with

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    disk-plate windows by a finite-difference time-domain method (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect TM01-mode microwave propagation property analysis for plasmas with disk-plate windows by a finite-difference time-domain method Citation Details In-Document Search Title: TM01-mode microwave propagation property analysis for plasmas with disk-plate windows by a finite-difference time-domain method Numerical studies of microwave propagation properties in a conical horn and an adjustable

  11. Impact of parton distribution function and {alpha}{sub s} uncertainties on Higgs boson production in gluon fusion at hadron colliders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demartin, Federico; Mariani, Elisa [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Forte, Stefano; Vicini, Alessandro [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Rojo, Juan [INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy)

    2010-07-01

    We present a systematic study of uncertainties due to parton distributions (PDFs) and the strong coupling on the gluon-fusion production cross section of the standard model Higgs at the Tevatron and LHC colliders. We compare procedures and results when three recent sets of PDFs are used, CTEQ6.6, MSTW08, and NNPDF1.2, and we discuss specifically the way PDF and strong coupling uncertainties are combined. We find that results obtained from different PDF sets are in reasonable agreement if a common value of the strong coupling is adopted. We show that the addition in quadrature of PDF and {alpha}{sub s} uncertainties provides an adequate approximation to the full result with exact error propagation. We discuss a simple recipe to determine a conservative PDF+{alpha}{sub s} uncertainty from available global parton sets, and we use it to estimate this uncertainty on the given process to be about 10% at the Tevatron and 5% at the LHC for a light Higgs.

  12. Uncertainties in compliance with harmonic current distortion limits in electric power systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gruzs, T.M. )

    1991-07-01

    The harmonic distortion of any repetitive voltage or current waveform is typically described by the quantity total harmonic distortion (THD). With the proliferation of nonlinear loads, such as static power converters, there has been increasing concern over the generation of harmonic currents and the effects of these currents on the power system. Proposals have been made to limit harmonic currents in power systems using the total harmonic distortion of the current as the criterion. This criterion, although it may be necessary, can be ambiguous and lead to compliance uncertainties. In this paper a discussion is presented on several of the practical problems by applying total harmonic current distortion limits to industrial and commercial power systems.

  13. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

  14. Total-derivative supersymmetry breaking

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haba, Naoyuki; Uekusa, Nobuhiro

    2010-05-15

    On an interval compactification in supersymmetric theory, boundary conditions for bulk fields must be treated carefully. If they are taken arbitrarily following the requirement that a theory is supersymmetric, the conditions could give redundant constraints on the theory. We construct a supersymmetric action integral on an interval by introducing brane interactions with which total-derivative terms under the supersymmetry transformation become zero due to a cancellation. The variational principle leads equations of motion and also boundary conditions for bulk fields, which determine boundary values of bulk fields. By estimating mass spectrum, spontaneous supersymmetry breaking in this simple setup can be realized in a new framework. This supersymmetry breaking does not induce a massless R axion, which is favorable for phenomenology. It is worth noting that fermions in hyper-multiplet, gauge bosons, and the fifth-dimensional component of gauge bosons can have zero-modes (while the other components are all massive as Kaluza-Klein modes), which fits the gauge-Higgs unification scenarios.

  15. Wave propagation and dispersion in a nonlinear microstructured...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Wave propagation ... 1106985 Report Number(s): SAND2013-6966J 463826 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Journal Article ...

  16. Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perk, Zoltn Gilli, Luca Lathouwers, Danny Kloosterman, Jan Leen

    2014-03-01

    The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (1520), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

  17. Voltage modulation of propagating spin waves in Fe

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nawaoka, Kohei; Shiota, Yoichi; Miwa, Shinji; Tamura, Eiiti; Tomita, Hiroyuki; Mizuochi, Norikazu; Shinjo, Teruya; Suzuki, Yoshishige

    2015-05-07

    The effect of a voltage application on propagating spin waves in single-crystalline 5?nm-Fe layer was investigated. Two micro-sized antennas were employed to excite and detect the propagating spin waves. The voltage effect was characterized using AC lock-in technique. As a result, the resonant field of the magnetostatic surface wave in the Fe was clearly modulated by the voltage application. The modulation is attributed to the voltage induced magnetic anisotropy change in ferromagnetic metals.

  18. Electrically heated particulate filter propagation support methods and systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gonze, Eugene V [Pinckney, MI; Ament, Frank [Troy, MI

    2011-06-07

    A control system that controls regeneration of a particulate filter is provided. The system generally includes a regeneration module that controls current to the particulate filter to initiate combustion of particulate matter in the particulate filter. A propagation module estimates a propagation status of the combustion of the particulate matter based on a combustion temperature. A temperature adjustment module controls the combustion temperature by selectively increasing a temperature of exhaust that passes through the particulate filter.

  19. Laser Propagation in Nanostructured Ultra-Low-Density Materials (Technical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report) | SciTech Connect Laser Propagation in Nanostructured Ultra-Low-Density Materials Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Laser Propagation in Nanostructured Ultra-Low-Density Materials × You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of DOE's Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) and is provided as a public service. Visit OSTI to utilize additional information resources in energy science and technology.

  20. Circular polarization of obliquely propagating whistler wave magnetic field

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bellan, P. M.

    2013-08-15

    The circular polarization of the magnetic field of obliquely propagating whistler waves is derived using a basis set associated with the wave partial differential equation. The wave energy is mainly magnetic and the wave propagation consists of this magnetic energy sloshing back and forth between two orthogonal components of magnetic field in quadrature. The wave electric field energy is small compared to the magnetic field energy.

  1. Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Materials. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured Materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured Materials. Abstract not provided. Authors: Dingreville, Remi Philippe Michel ; Robbins, Joshua ; Voth, Thomas E. Publication Date: 2015-03-01 OSTI Identifier: 1246266 Report Number(s): SAND2015-1780C 579622 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference

  2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk.

  3. ,"West Virginia Natural Gas Total Consumption (MMcf)"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Data for" ,"Data 1","West Virginia Natural Gas Total Consumption ... AM" "Back to Contents","Data 1: West Virginia Natural Gas Total Consumption (MMcf)" ...

  4. ,"New Mexico Natural Gas Total Consumption (MMcf)"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Data for" ,"Data 1","New Mexico Natural Gas Total Consumption ... AM" "Back to Contents","Data 1: New Mexico Natural Gas Total Consumption (MMcf)" ...

  5. ARM - Measurement - Shortwave broadband total downwelling irradiance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Measurement : Shortwave broadband total downwelling irradiance The total diffuse and direct radiant energy that comes from some continuous range of directions, at wavelengths ...

  6. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: Energy End-Use Consumption Tables Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing...

  7. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings* ... 1,870 1,276...

  8. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Energy Consumption Survey: Energy End-Use Consumption Tables Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All...

  9. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings* ... 1,602 1,397...

  10. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Released: September, 2008 Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings ... 2,037...

  11. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  12. On the propagation of a coupled saturation and pressure front

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vasco, D. W.

    2010-12-01

    Using an asymptotic technique, valid for a medium with smoothly varying heterogeneity, I derive an expression for the velocity of a propagating, coupled saturation and pressure front. Due to the nonlinearity of the governing equations, the velocity of the propagating front depends upon the magnitude of the saturation and pressure changes across the front in addition to the properties of the medium. Thus, the expression must be evaluated in conjunction with numerical reservoir simulation. The propagation of the two-phase front is governed by the background saturation distribution, the saturation-dependent component of the fluid mobility, the porosity, the permeability, the capillary pressure function, the medium compressibility, and the ratio of the slopes of the relative permeability curves. Numerical simulation of water injection into a porous layer saturated with a nonaqueous phase liquid indicates that two modes of propagation are important. The fastest mode of propagation is a pressure-dominated disturbance that travels through the saturated layer. This is followed, much later, by a coupled mode with a large saturation change. These two modes are also observed in a simulation using a heterogeneous porous layer. A comparison between the propagation times estimated from the results of the numerical simulation and predictions from the asymptotic expression indicates overall agreement.

  13. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  14. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  15. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the ...

  16. Dasymetric Modeling and Uncertainty (Journal Article) | SciTech...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Dasymetric Modeling and Uncertainty Citation Details In-Document Search ... DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-00OR22725 Resource Type: Journal Article Resource Relation: ...

  17. Problem Solving Environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-10-26

    PSUADE is an software system that is used to study the releationships between the inputs and outputs of gerneral simulation models for the purpose of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on simulation models.

  18. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  19. Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on ...

  20. Comparison of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous CFD Fuel Models for Phase I of the IAEA CRP on HTR Uncertainties Benchmark

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Su-Jong Yoon

    2014-04-01

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) evaluation of homogeneous and heterogeneous fuel models was performed as part of the Phase I calculations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinate Research Program (CRP) on High Temperature Reactor (HTR) Uncertainties in Modeling (UAM). This study was focused on the nominal localized stand-alone fuel thermal response, as defined in Ex. I-3 and I-4 of the HTR UAM. The aim of the stand-alone thermal unit-cell simulation is to isolate the effect of material and boundary input uncertainties on a very simplified problem, before propagation of these uncertainties are performed in subsequent coupled neutronics/thermal fluids phases on the benchmark. In many of the previous studies for high temperature gas cooled reactors, the volume-averaged homogeneous mixture model of a single fuel compact has been applied. In the homogeneous model, the Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles in the fuel compact were not modeled directly and an effective thermal conductivity was employed for the thermo-physical properties of the fuel compact. On the contrary, in the heterogeneous model, the uranium carbide (UCO), inner and outer pyrolytic carbon (IPyC/OPyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) layers of the TRISO fuel particles are explicitly modeled. The fuel compact is modeled as a heterogeneous mixture of TRISO fuel kernels embedded in H-451 matrix graphite. In this study, a steady-state and transient CFD simulations were performed with both homogeneous and heterogeneous models to compare the thermal characteristics. The nominal values of the input parameters are used for this CFD analysis. In a future study, the effects of input uncertainties in the material properties and boundary parameters will be investigated and reported.

  1. Error and Uncertainty in Raman Thermal Conductivity Measurements

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    20695J 1 Error and Uncertainty in Raman Thermal Conductivity Measurements 2 Thomas Beechem,1, a) Luke Yates,1,2 and Samuel Graham2 3 !)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA 87123 4 2' )G.W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 5 Atlanta, GA, 30332 Error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements are investigated via fi- nite element based numerical simulation of two geometries often employed-Joule-heating of a wire and

  2. From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning a Long

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journey in Ice Sheet Modeling. (Conference) | SciTech Connect From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning a Long Journey in Ice Sheet Modeling. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning a Long Journey in Ice Sheet Modeling. Abstract not provided. Authors: Eldred, Michael S. ; Heimbach, Patrick [1] ; Jackson, Charles [2] ; Jakeman, John Davis ; Perego, Mauro ; Price, Stephen, [3] ; Salinger, Andrew

  3. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Authors: Talou, Patrick [1] ; Nazarewicz, Witold [2] ; Prinja, Anil [3] ; Danon, Yaron [4] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA University of New Mexico, USA Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA

  4. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling This project addresses three important gaps in existing evaluated nuclear data libraries that represent a significant hindrance against highly advanced modeling and simulation capabilities for the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI). This project will: Develop

  5. Lab RFP: Validation and Uncertainty Characterization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Validation and Uncertainty Characterization Lab RFP: Validation and Uncertainty Characterization LBNL's FLEXLAB test facility, which includes four test cells each split into two half-cells to enable side-by-side comparative experiments. The cells have one active, reconfigurable facade, and individual, reconfigurable single-zone HVAC systems. The cell facing the camera sits on 270 degree turntable. Photo credit: LBNL. Bottom: ORNL's two-story flexible research platform test building. The building

  6. Measuring Thermal Conductivity with Raman:Capability Uncertainty and Strain

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Effects. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Measuring Thermal Conductivity with Raman:Capability Uncertainty and Strain Effects. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Measuring Thermal Conductivity with Raman:Capability Uncertainty and Strain Effects. Abstract not provided. Authors: Beechem Iii, Thomas Edwin ; Yates, Luke Publication Date: 2012-11-01 OSTI Identifier: 1116156 Report Number(s): SAND2012-10198C 480178 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference Resource

  7. Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties Authors: White, Morgan C. [1] ; Rising, Michael E. [1] ; Talou, Patrick [1] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory Publication Date: 2012-10-22 OSTI Identifier: 1053899 Report Number(s): LA-UR-12-25665 DOE Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396 Resource Type: Conference

  8. A density-matching approach for optimization under uncertainty (Journal

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Article) | SciTech Connect A density-matching approach for optimization under uncertainty Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A density-matching approach for optimization under uncertainty Authors: Seshadri, Pranay ; Constantine, Paul ; Iaccarino, Gianluca ; Parks, Geoffrey Search SciTech Connect for author "Parks, Geoffrey" Search SciTech Connect for ORCID "0000000181885047" Search orcid.org for ORCID "0000000181885047" Publication Date: 2016-06-01 OSTI

  9. An Efficient Surrogate Modeling Approach in Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: An Efficient Surrogate Modeling Approach in Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis Citation Details In-Document Search Title: An Efficient Surrogate Modeling Approach in Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis Authors: Zhang, Guannan [1] ; Gunzburger, Max D [1] ; Lu, Dan [1] ; Webster, Clayton G [1] ; Ye, Ming [2] + Show Author Affiliations ORNL Florida State University, Tallahassee Publication Date: 2013-01-01 OSTI Identifier: 1096320 DOE Contract Number:

  10. Research Portfolio Report Ultra-Deepwater: Geologic Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Geologic Uncertainty Cover Image: 3D visualization of directionally drilled boreholes in the Gulf of Mexico, field MC109, showing NETL's interpretation of two reservoir sand intervals. Research Portfolio Report Ultra-Deepwater: Geologic Uncertainty DOE/NETL-2015/1694 Prepared by: Mari Nichols-Haining, Jennifer Funk, Kathy Bruner, John Oelfke, and Christine Rueter KeyLogic Systems, Inc. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Contact: James Ammer james.ammer@netl.doe.gov Contract

  11. Nonproliferation Uncertainties, a Major Barrier to Used Nuclear Fuel

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Recycle in the United States (Conference) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Conference: Nonproliferation Uncertainties, a Major Barrier to Used Nuclear Fuel Recycle in the United States Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Nonproliferation Uncertainties, a Major Barrier to Used Nuclear Fuel Recycle in the United States A study and comparison of the goals and understandings of nonproliferation authorities with those of used nuclear fuel (UNF) recycle advocates have

  12. Assessment of Uncertainty in Cloud Radiative Effects and Heating Rates

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    through Retrieval Algorithm Differences: Analysis using 3-years of ARM data at Darwin, Australia (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Assessment of Uncertainty in Cloud Radiative Effects and Heating Rates through Retrieval Algorithm Differences: Analysis using 3-years of ARM data at Darwin, Australia Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of Uncertainty in Cloud Radiative Effects and Heating Rates through Retrieval Algorithm Differences: Analysis using 3-years of ARM data at

  13. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54 (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54 Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has

  14. Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Radiation Measurement Doppler Lidar during XPIA: Field Campaign Report (Program Document) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Program Document: Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Doppler Lidar during XPIA: Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Doppler Lidar during XPIA: Field Campaign Report In March and

  15. Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for

  16. Gas Exploration Software for Reducing Uncertainty in Gas Concentration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Estimates - Energy Innovation Portal Energy Analysis Energy Analysis Find More Like This Return to Search Gas Exploration Software for Reducing Uncertainty in Gas Concentration Estimates Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Contact LBL About This Technology Technology Marketing SummaryEstimating reservoir parameters for gas exploration from geophysical data is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Seismic imaging techniques, such as seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) analysis, can

  17. Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during

  18. Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    pressure build-up and ground surface uplift during geological CO₂ sequestration (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on pressure build-up and ground surface uplift during geological CO₂ sequestration Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on pressure build-up and ground surface uplift during geological CO₂ sequestration A series of numerical

  19. Uncertainty quantification methodologies development for storage and trans-

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    portation of used nuclear fuel: Pilot study on stress corrosion cracking of canister welds (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Uncertainty quantification methodologies development for storage and trans- portation of used nuclear fuel: Pilot study on stress corrosion cracking of canister welds Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification methodologies development for storage and trans- portation of used nuclear fuel: Pilot study on stress corrosion

  20. Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different

  1. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Djurcic, Zelimir; Detwiler, Jason A.; Piepke, Andreas; Foster Jr., Vince R.; Miller, Lester; Gratta, Giorgio

    2008-08-06

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in {bar {nu}}{sub e} detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties, and their relevance to reactor {bar {nu}}{sub e} experiments.

  2. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K.

    1997-08-01

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  3. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  4. Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

    2014-05-14

    Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

  5. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1996-05-01

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  6. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1995-12-31

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems and uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. This approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The code have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  7. Covariant energymomentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooperstock, F.I.; Dupre, M.J.

    2013-12-15

    We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energymomentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energymomentum. -- Highlights: We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energymomentum. Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energymomentum in strong gravity extreme.

  8. A Method to Estimate Uncertainty in Radiometric Measurement Using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.

    2015-03-01

    Radiometric data with known and traceable uncertainty is essential for climate change studies to better understand cloud radiation interactions and the earth radiation budget. Further, adopting a known and traceable method of estimating uncertainty with respect to SI ensures that the uncertainty quoted for radiometric measurements can be compared based on documented methods of derivation.Therefore, statements about the overall measurement uncertainty can only be made on an individual basis, taking all relevant factors into account. This poster provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements from radiometers. The approach follows the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). derivation.Therefore, statements about the overall measurement uncertainty can only be made on an individual basis, taking all relevant factors into account. This poster provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements from radiometers. The approach follows the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM).

  9. Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook-

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Tables Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other Total Space Heating Water Heating Cook- ing Other All Buildings* ... 634 578 46 1 Q 116.4 106.3...

  10. Gluon propagators and center vortices in gluon plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chernodub, M. N.; Nakagawa, Y.; Nakamura, A.; Saito, T.; Zakharov, V. I.

    2011-06-01

    We study electric and magnetic components of the gluon propagators in quark-gluon plasma in terms of center vortices by using a quenched simulation of SU(2) lattice theory. In the Landau gauge, the magnetic components of the propagators are strongly affected in the infrared region by removal of the center vortices, while the electric components are almost unchanged by this procedure. In the Coulomb gauge, the time-time correlators, including an instantaneous interaction, also have an essential contribution from the center vortices. As a result, one finds that magnetic degrees of freedom in the infrared region couple strongly to the center vortices in the deconfinement phase.

  11. The fundamental solution of the unidirectional pulse propagation equation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Babushkin, I.; Bergé, L.

    2014-03-15

    The fundamental solution of a variant of the three-dimensional wave equation known as “unidirectional pulse propagation equation” (UPPE) and its paraxial approximation is obtained. It is shown that the fundamental solution can be presented as a projection of a fundamental solution of the wave equation to some functional subspace. We discuss the degree of equivalence of the UPPE and the wave equation in this respect. In particular, we show that the UPPE, in contrast to the common belief, describes wave propagation in both longitudinal and temporal directions, and, thereby, its fundamental solution possesses a non-causal character.

  12. Imaging spectroscopy algorithms for mapping canopy foliar chemical and morphological traits and their uncertainties

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Singh, Aditya; Serbin, Shawn P.; McNeil, Brenden E.; Kingdon, Clayton C.; Townsend, Philip A.

    2015-12-01

    A major goal of remote sensing is the development of generalizable algorithms to repeatedly and accurately map ecosystem properties across space and time. Imaging spectroscopy has great potential to map vegetation traits that cannot be retrieved from broadband spectral data, but rarely have such methods been tested across broad regions. Here we illustrate a general approach for estimating key foliar chemical and morphological traits through space and time using NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-Classic). We apply partial least squares regression (PLSR) to data from 237 field plots within 51 images acquired between 2008 and 2011. Using a series ofmore » 500 randomized 50/50 subsets of the original data, we generated spatially explicit maps of seven traits (leaf mass per area (Marea), percentage nitrogen, carbon, fiber, lignin, and cellulose, and isotopic nitrogen concentration, δ15N) as well as pixel-wise uncertainties in their estimates based on error propagation in the analytical methods. Both Marea and %N PLSR models had a R2 > 0.85. Root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both variables were less than 9% of the range of data. Fiber and lignin were predicted with R2 > 0.65 and carbon and cellulose with R2 > 0.45. Although R2 of %C and cellulose were lower than Marea and %N, the measured variability of these constituents (especially %C) was also lower, and their RMSE values were beneath 12% of the range in overall variability. Model performance for δ15N was the lowest (R2 = 0.48, RMSE = 0.95‰), but within 15% of the observed range. The resulting maps of chemical and morphological traits, together with their overall uncertainties, represent a first-of-its-kind approach for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of forest functioning and nutrient cycling across a broad range of temperate and sub-boreal ecosystems. These results offer an alternative to categorical maps of functional or physiognomic types by providing non-discrete maps (i.e., on a continuum) of traits that define those functional types. A key contribution of this work is the ability to assign retrieval uncertainties by pixel, a requirement to enable assimilation of these data products into ecosystem modeling frameworks to constrain carbon and nutrient cycling projections.« less

  13. Imaging spectroscopy algorithms for mapping canopy foliar chemical and morphological traits and their uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singh, Aditya; Serbin, Shawn P.; McNeil, Brenden E.; Kingdon, Clayton C.; Townsend, Philip A.

    2015-12-01

    A major goal of remote sensing is the development of generalizable algorithms to repeatedly and accurately map ecosystem properties across space and time. Imaging spectroscopy has great potential to map vegetation traits that cannot be retrieved from broadband spectral data, but rarely have such methods been tested across broad regions. Here we illustrate a general approach for estimating key foliar chemical and morphological traits through space and time using NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-Classic). We apply partial least squares regression (PLSR) to data from 237 field plots within 51 images acquired between 2008 and 2011. Using a series of 500 randomized 50/50 subsets of the original data, we generated spatially explicit maps of seven traits (leaf mass per area (Marea), percentage nitrogen, carbon, fiber, lignin, and cellulose, and isotopic nitrogen concentration, δ15N) as well as pixel-wise uncertainties in their estimates based on error propagation in the analytical methods. Both Marea and %N PLSR models had a R2 > 0.85. Root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both variables were less than 9% of the range of data. Fiber and lignin were predicted with R2 > 0.65 and carbon and cellulose with R2 > 0.45. Although R2 of %C and cellulose were lower than Marea and %N, the measured variability of these constituents (especially %C) was also lower, and their RMSE values were beneath 12% of the range in overall variability. Model performance for δ15N was the lowest (R2 = 0.48, RMSE = 0.95‰), but within 15% of the observed range. The resulting maps of chemical and morphological traits, together with their overall uncertainties, represent a first-of-its-kind approach for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of forest functioning and nutrient cycling across a broad range of temperate and sub-boreal ecosystems. These results offer an alternative to categorical maps of functional or physiognomic types by providing non-discrete maps (i.e., on a continuum) of traits that define those functional types. A key contribution of this work is the ability to assign retrieval uncertainties by pixel, a requirement to enable assimilation of these data products into ecosystem modeling frameworks to constrain carbon and nutrient cycling projections.

  14. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  15. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2 Alaska - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S2. Summary statistics for natural gas - Alaska, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 269 277 185 R 159 170 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 127,417 112,268

  16. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6 District of Columbia - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S9. Summary statistics for natural gas - District of Columbia, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 0 0 0 0 0 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells

  17. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 Massachusetts - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S23. Summary statistics for natural gas - Massachusetts, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 0 0 0 0 0 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 0 0 0 0 0

  18. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    50 North Dakota - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S36. Summary statistics for natural gas - North Dakota, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 188 239 211 200 200 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells

  19. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6 Washington - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S49. Summary statistics for natural gas - Washington, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 0 0 0 0 0 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 0 0 0 0 0 From Oil

  20. Total System Performance Assessment Peer Review Panel

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Peer Review Panel for predicting the performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain.

  1. Systematic uncertainties from halo asphericity in dark matter searches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernal, Nicols; Forero-Romero, Jaime E.; Garani, Raghuveer; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio E-mail: je.forero@uniandes.edu.co E-mail: sergio.palomares.ruiz@ific.uv.es

    2014-09-01

    Although commonly assumed to be spherical, dark matter halos are predicted to be non-spherical by N-body simulations and their asphericity has a potential impact on the systematic uncertainties in dark matter searches. The evaluation of these uncertainties is the main aim of this work, where we study the impact of aspherical dark matter density distributions in Milky-Way-like halos on direct and indirect searches. Using data from the large N-body cosmological simulation Bolshoi, we perform a statistical analysis and quantify the systematic uncertainties on the determination of local dark matter density and the so-called J factors for dark matter annihilations and decays from the galactic center. We find that, due to our ignorance about the extent of the non-sphericity of the Milky Way dark matter halo, systematic uncertainties can be as large as 35%, within the 95% most probable region, for a spherically averaged value for the local density of 0.3-0.4 GeV/cm {sup 3}. Similarly, systematic uncertainties on the J factors evaluated around the galactic center can be as large as 10% and 15%, within the 95% most probable region, for dark matter annihilations and decays, respectively.

  2. Effects of swirl-flow on flame propagation in a constant-volume vessel

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, P.; Watanabe, Kazunori; Obara, Tetsuro; Yoshihashi, Teruo; Ohyagi, Shigeharu

    1999-07-01

    Flame propagation in a closed vessel is one of the fundamental topics in the combustion science and technology. This problem has been studied mostly for application to engine combustion because the combustion processes in a premixed spark ignition engine are well simulated by those processes in a constant-volume combustion chamber. One of the most important objective to study this phenomena is to elucidate the combustion phenomena to increase the thermal efficiency of engine by enhancing the combustion process. In real engines, a number of technical methods such as swirl, tumble, squish and jet flows ere developed to shorten a burning time. All of these methods make use of flows in the combustion chamber. The fundamental problem is then to elucidate a mechanism of reduction of the burning time by the flows and their turbulence. In the present work, experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of swirl-flow on the flame propagation in a disc-shaped constant-volume vessel of 100 mm in diameter and 30 mm in depth. Figure A-1 shows a schematic of the apparatus. Gaseous mixtures used were methane diluted with air at an atmospheric pressure, and their equivalence ratios were varied as a parameter. Ignition timing was varied to change the velocity of swirling flow before the flame propagation. As results, a burning time was found to be decreased as the swirling flow increased and a maximum pressure was increased as the velocity increased as a total heat loss decreased. Flame front structures were clearly observed by the instantaneous schlieren photography.

  3. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  4. Self-Propagating Assembly of a Molecular-Based Multilayer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Motiei,L.; Altman, M.; Gupta, T.; Lupo, F.; Gulino, A.; Evmenenko, G.; Dutta, P.; van der Boom, M.

    2008-01-01

    Accelerated growth of a molecular-based material that is an active participant in its continuing self-propagated assembly has been demonstrated. This nonlinear growth process involves diffusion of palladium into a network consisting of metal-based chromophores linked via palladium.

  5. Beam Propagator for Weather Radars, Modules 1 and 2

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-10-08

    This program simulates the beam propagation of weather radar pulses under particular and realistic atmospheric conditions (without using the assumption of standard refraction conditions). It consists of two modules: radiosondings_refract_index_many.pro (MAIN MODULE) beam_propagation_function.pro(EXTERNAL FUNCTION) FOR THE MAIN MODULE, THE CODE DOES OUTPUT--INTO A FILE--THE BEAM HEIGHT AS A FUNCTION OF RANGE. THE RADIOSONDE INPUT FILES SHOULD BE ALREADY AVAILABLE BY THE USER. FOR EXAMPLE, RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION FILES CAN BE OBTAINED AT: RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS DOWNLOADED ATmore » "http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/soounding.html" OR "http://jervis.pyr.ec.gc.ca" THE EXTERNAL FUNCTION DOES THE ACTUAL COMPUTATION OF BEAM PROPAGATION. IT INCLUDES CONDITIONS OF ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION AND NEGATIVE ELEVATION ANGLES. THE EQUATIONS USED HERE WERE DERIVED BY EDWIN CAMPOS, BASED ON THE SNELL-DESCARTES LAW OF REFRACTION, CONSIDERING THE EARTH CURVATURE. THE PROGRAM REQUIRES A COMPILER FOR THE INTERACTIVE DATA LANGUAGE (IDL). DESCRIPTION AND VALIDATION DETAILS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED IN THE PEER-REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE, AS FOLLOWS: Campos E. 2012. Estimating weather radar coverage over complex terrain, pp.26-32, peer reviewed, in Weather Radar and Hydrology, edited by Moore RJ, Cole SJ and Illingworth AJ. International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Press, IAHS Publ. 351. ISBN 978-1-907161-26-1.« less

  6. On flame kernel formation and propagation in premixed gases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisazadeh-Far, Kian; Metghalchi, Hameed [Northeastern University, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Boston, MA 02115 (United States); Parsinejad, Farzan [Chevron Oronite Company LLC, Richmond, CA 94801 (United States); Keck, James C. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    Flame kernel formation and propagation in premixed gases have been studied experimentally and theoretically. The experiments have been carried out at constant pressure and temperature in a constant volume vessel located in a high speed shadowgraph system. The formation and propagation of the hot plasma kernel has been simulated for inert gas mixtures using a thermodynamic model. The effects of various parameters including the discharge energy, radiation losses, initial temperature and initial volume of the plasma have been studied in detail. The experiments have been extended to flame kernel formation and propagation of methane/air mixtures. The effect of energy terms including spark energy, chemical energy and energy losses on flame kernel formation and propagation have been investigated. The inputs for this model are the initial conditions of the mixture and experimental data for flame radii. It is concluded that these are the most important parameters effecting plasma kernel growth. The results of laminar burning speeds have been compared with previously published results and are in good agreement. (author)

  7. Failure propagation in multi-cell lithium ion batteries

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lamb, Joshua; Orendorff, Christopher J.; Steele, Leigh Anna M.; Spangler, Scott W.

    2014-10-22

    Traditionally, safety and impact of failure concerns of lithium ion batteries have dealt with the field failure of single cells. However, large and complex battery systems require the consideration of how a single cell failure will impact the system as a whole. Initial failure that leads to the thermal runaway of other cells within the system creates a much more serious condition than the failure of a single cell. This work examines the behavior of small modules of cylindrical and stacked pouch cells after thermal runaway is induced in a single cell through nail penetration trigger [1] within the module.more » Cylindrical cells are observed to be less prone to propagate, if failure propagates at all, owing to the limited contact between neighboring cells. However, the electrical connectivity is found to be impactful as the 10S1P cylindrical cell module did not show failure propagation through the module, while the 1S10P module had an energetic thermal runaway consuming the module minutes after the initiation failure trigger. Modules built using pouch cells conversely showed the impact of strong heat transfer between cells. In this case, a large surface area of the cells was in direct contact with its neighbors, allowing failure to propagate through the entire battery within 60-80 seconds for all configurations (parallel or series) tested. This work demonstrates the increased severity possible when a point failure impacts the surrounding battery system.« less

  8. Corrigendum and addendum. Modeling weakly nonlinear acoustic wave propagation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Christov, Ivan; Christov, C. I.; Jordan, P. M.

    2014-12-18

    This article presents errors, corrections, and additions to the research outlined in the following citation: Christov, I., Christov, C. I., & Jordan, P. M. (2007). Modeling weakly nonlinear acoustic wave propagation. The Quarterly Journal of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics, 60(4), 473-495.

  9. Failure propagation in multi-cell lithium ion batteries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamb, Joshua; Orendorff, Christopher J.; Steele, Leigh Anna M.; Spangler, Scott W.

    2014-10-22

    Traditionally, safety and impact of failure concerns of lithium ion batteries have dealt with the field failure of single cells. However, large and complex battery systems require the consideration of how a single cell failure will impact the system as a whole. Initial failure that leads to the thermal runaway of other cells within the system creates a much more serious condition than the failure of a single cell. This work examines the behavior of small modules of cylindrical and stacked pouch cells after thermal runaway is induced in a single cell through nail penetration trigger [1] within the module. Cylindrical cells are observed to be less prone to propagate, if failure propagates at all, owing to the limited contact between neighboring cells. However, the electrical connectivity is found to be impactful as the 10S1P cylindrical cell module did not show failure propagation through the module, while the 1S10P module had an energetic thermal runaway consuming the module minutes after the initiation failure trigger. Modules built using pouch cells conversely showed the impact of strong heat transfer between cells. In this case, a large surface area of the cells was in direct contact with its neighbors, allowing failure to propagate through the entire battery within 60-80 seconds for all configurations (parallel or series) tested. This work demonstrates the increased severity possible when a point failure impacts the surrounding battery system.

  10. Hybrid processing of stochastic and subjective uncertainty data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, J.A.; Ferson, S.; Ginzburg, L.

    1995-11-01

    Uncertainty analyses typically recognize separate stochastic and subjective sources of uncertainty, but do not systematically combine the two, although a large amount of data used in analyses is partly stochastic and partly subjective. We have developed methodology for mathematically combining stochastic and subjective data uncertainty, based on new ``hybrid number`` approaches. The methodology can be utilized in conjunction with various traditional techniques, such as PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) and risk analysis decision support. Hybrid numbers have been previously examined as a potential method to represent combinations of stochastic and subjective information, but mathematical processing has been impeded by the requirements inherent in the structure of the numbers, e.g., there was no known way to multiply hybrids. In this paper, we will demonstrate methods for calculating with hybrid numbers that avoid the difficulties. By formulating a hybrid number as a probability distribution that is only fuzzy known, or alternatively as a random distribution of fuzzy numbers, methods are demonstrated for the full suite of arithmetic operations, permitting complex mathematical calculations. It will be shown how information about relative subjectivity (the ratio of subjective to stochastic knowledge about a particular datum) can be incorporated. Techniques are also developed for conveying uncertainty information visually, so that the stochastic and subjective constituents of the uncertainty, as well as the ratio of knowledge about the two, are readily apparent. The techniques demonstrated have the capability to process uncertainty information for independent, uncorrelated data, and for some types of dependent and correlated data. Example applications are suggested, illustrative problems are worked, and graphical results are given.

  11. ON SUN-TO-EARTH PROPAGATION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Ying D.; Luhmann, Janet G.; Moestl, Christian; Bale, Stuart D.; Lin, Robert P.; Lugaz, Noe; Davies, Jackie A.

    2013-05-20

    We investigate how coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagate through, and interact with, the inner heliosphere between the Sun and Earth, a key question in CME research and space weather forecasting. CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics are constrained by combining wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations, interplanetary radio type II bursts, and in situ measurements from multiple vantage points. We select three events for this study, the 2012 January 19, 23, and March 7 CMEs. Different from previous event studies, this work attempts to create a general picture for CME Sun-to-Earth propagation and compare different techniques for determining CME interplanetary kinematics. Key results are obtained concerning CME Sun-to-Earth propagation: (1) the Sun-to-Earth propagation of fast CMEs can be approximately formulated into three phases: an impulsive acceleration, then a rapid deceleration, and finally a nearly constant speed propagation (or gradual deceleration); (2) the CMEs studied here are still accelerating even after the flare maximum, so energy must be continuously fed into the CME even after the time of the maximum heating and radiation has elapsed in the corona; (3) the rapid deceleration, presumably due to interactions with the ambient medium, mainly occurs over a relatively short timescale following the acceleration phase; and (4) CME-CME interactions seem a common phenomenon close to solar maximum. Our comparison between different techniques (and data sets) has important implications for CME observations and their interpretations: (1) for the current cases, triangulation assuming a compact CME geometry is more reliable than triangulation assuming a spherical front attached to the Sun for distances below 50-70 solar radii from the Sun, but beyond about 100 solar radii we would trust the latter more; (2) a proper treatment of CME geometry must be performed in determining CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics, especially when the CME propagation direction is far away from the observer; and (3) our approach to comparing wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations with interplanetary radio type II bursts provides a novel tool in investigating CME propagation characteristics. Future CME observations and space weather forecasting are discussed based on these results.

  12. Uncertainty quantification in lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beane, Silas R.; Detmold, William; Orginos, Kostas; Savage, Martin J.

    2015-02-05

    The numerical technique of Lattice QCD holds the promise of connecting the nuclear forces, nuclei, the spectrum and structure of hadrons, and the properties of matter under extreme conditions with the underlying theory of the strong interactions, quantum chromodynamics. A distinguishing, and thus far unique, feature of this formulation is that all of the associated uncertainties, both statistical and systematic can, in principle, be systematically reduced to any desired precision with sufficient computational and human resources. As a result, we review the sources of uncertainty inherent in Lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics, and discuss how each is quantified in current efforts.

  13. Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements (Conference) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser

  14. Thermoacoustic wave propagation modeling using a dynamically adaptive wavelet collocation method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vasilyev, O.V.; Paolucci, S.

    1996-12-31

    When a localized region of a solid wall surrounding a compressible medium is subjected to a sudden temperature change, the medium in the immediate neighborhood of that region expands. This expansion generates pressure waves. These thermally-generated waves are referred to as thermoacoustic (TAC) waves. The main interest in thermoacoustic waves is motivated by their property to enhance heat transfer by inducing convective motion away from the heated area. Thermoacoustic wave propagation in a two-dimensional rectangular cavity is studied numerically. The thermoacoustic waves are generated by raising the temperature locally at the walls. The waves, which decay at large time due to thermal and viscous diffusion, propagate and reflect from the walls creating complicated two-dimensional patterns. The accuracy of numerical simulation is ensured by using a highly accurate, dynamically adaptive, multilevel wavelet collocation method, which allows local refinements to adapt to local changes in solution scales. Subsequently, high resolution computations are performed only in regions of large gradients. The computational cost of the method is independent of the dimensionality of the problem and is O(N), where N is the total number of collation points.

  15. Cell Total Activity Final Estimate.xls

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    WSSRAP Cell Total Activity Final Estimate (calculated September 2002, Fleming) (Waste streams & occupied cell volumes from spreadsheet titled "cell waste volumes-8.23.02 with ...

  16. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0 Alabama - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S1. Summary statistics for natural gas - Alabama, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 7,026 7,063 6,327 R 6,165 6,118 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells

  17. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0 Colorado - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S6. Summary statistics for natural gas - Colorado, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 28,813 30,101 32,000 R 32,468 38,346 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas

  18. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    8 Florida - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S10. Summary statistics for natural gas - Florida, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 0 0 0 0 0 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 0 0 17,182 16,459 19,742

  19. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 Hawaii - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S13. Summary statistics for natural gas - Hawaii, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 0 0 0 0 0 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 0 0 0 0 0 From Oil Wells 0

  20. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6 Idaho - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S14. Summary statistics for natural gas - Idaho, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 0 0 0 0 0 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 0 0 0 0 0 From Oil Wells 0 0

  1. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 Kansas - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S18. Summary statistics for natural gas - Kansas, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 22,145 25,758 24,697 R 23,792 24,354 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells

  2. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    8 Louisiana - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S20. Summary statistics for natural gas - Louisiana, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 19,137 21,235 19,792 R 19,528 19,251 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas

  3. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 New Mexico - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S33. Summary statistics for natural gas - New Mexico, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 44,748 32,302 28,206 R 27,073 27,957 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From

  4. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6 Oregon - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle Fuel: Deliveries to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S39. Summary statistics for natural gas - Oregon, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Producing Gas Wells at End of Year 26 24 27 R 26 28 Production (million cubic feet) Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells 1,407 1,344 770 770

  5. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Net Movements: - Industrial: Dry Production: Vehicle ... due to independent rounding. Prices are in nominal dollars. ... Annual Consumption per Consumer (thousand cubic feet) ...

  6. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    from Electric Power to Industrial for years 2002 through ... Totals may not add due to independent rounding. Prices are ... Annual Consumption per Consumer (thousand cubic feet) ...

  7. Total Natural Gas Underground Storage Capacity

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Storage Capacity Salt Caverns Storage Capacity Aquifers Storage Capacity Depleted Fields Storage Capacity Total Working Gas Capacity Working Gas Capacity of Salt Caverns Working...

  8. ARM - Measurement - Shortwave narrowband total downwelling irradiance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Measurement : Shortwave narrowband total downwelling irradiance The rate at which radiant energy, in narrow bands of wavelengths shorter than approximately 4 mum, passes ...

  9. ARM - Measurement - Shortwave narrowband total upwelling irradiance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Measurement : Shortwave narrowband total upwelling irradiance The rate at which radiant energy, in narrow bands of wavelengths shorter than approximately 4 mum, passes ...

  10. ARM - Measurement - Shortwave spectral total downwelling irradiance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Measurement : Shortwave spectral total downwelling irradiance The rate at which radiant energy, at specrally-resolved wavelengths between 0.4 and 4 mum, is being emitted ...

  11. 2014 Total Electric Industry- Sales (Megawatthours

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA-861U)" "State","Residential","Commercial","Industrial","Transportation","Total" "New England",47211525,53107038,19107433,557463,119983459 "Connecticut",12777579,12893531,351479...

  12. Total Supplemental Supply of Natural Gas

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Product: Total Supplemental Supply Synthetic Propane-Air Refinery Gas Biomass Other Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & ...

  13. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun; Oliver, D.S.

    1997-08-01

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  14. Improved lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jafarpour, Mojtaba; Sabour, Abbass

    2011-09-15

    We present a lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation for the distinguished measurements of two observables in a d-dimensional Hilbert space for d up to 5. This bound provides an improvement over the best one yet available. The feasibility of the obtained bound presenting an improvement for higher dimensions is also discussed.

  15. Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.; Brown, G.

    2015-10-07

    Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine powermoreperformance analysis and annual energy production. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30 % of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. Large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation when arc scans are used for wind resource assessment.less

  16. Impact of Uncertainty on Loss Estimates for a Repeat of the 1908 Messina-Reggio Calabria Earthquake in Southern Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Franco, Guillermo; Shen-Tu, Bing Ming; Bazzurro, Paolo; Goretti, Agostino; Valensise, Gianluca

    2008-07-08

    Increasing sophistication in the insurance and reinsurance market is stimulating the move towards catastrophe models that offer a greater degree of flexibility in the definition of model parameters and model assumptions. This study explores the impact of uncertainty in the input parameters on the loss estimates by departing from the exclusive usage of mean values to establish the earthquake event mechanism, the ground motion fields, or the damageability of the building stock. Here the potential losses due to a repeat of the 1908 Messina-Reggio Calabria event are calculated using different plausible alternatives found in the literature that encompass 12 event scenarios, 2 different ground motion prediction equations, and 16 combinations of damage functions for the building stock, a total of 384 loss scenarios. These results constitute the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the different assumptions on the loss estimates that allows the model user to estimate the impact of the uncertainty on input parameters and the potential spread of the model results. For the event under scrutiny, average losses would amount today to about 9.000 to 10.000 million Euros. The uncertainty in the model parameters is reflected in the high coefficient of variation of this loss, reaching approximately 45%. The choice of ground motion prediction equations and vulnerability functions of the building stock contribute the most to the uncertainty in loss estimates. This indicates that the application of non-local-specific information has a great impact on the spread of potential catastrophic losses. In order to close this uncertainty gap, more exhaustive documentation practices in insurance portfolios will have to go hand in hand with greater flexibility in the model input parameters.

  17. Dynamic characteristic of intense short microwave propagation in an atmosphere

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yee, J.H.; Alvarez, R.A.; Mayhall, D.J.; Madsen, N.K.; Cabayan, H.S.

    1983-07-01

    The dynamic behavior of an intense microwave pulse which propagates through the atmosphere will be presented. Our theoretical results are obtained by solving Maxwell's equations, together with the electron fluid equations. Our calculations show that although large portions of the initial energy are absorbed by the electrons that are created through the avalanche process, a significant amount of energy is still able to reach the earth's surface. The amount of energy that reaches the earth's surface as a function of initial energy and wave shape after having propagated through 100 km in the atmosphere are investigated. Results for the air breakdown threshold intensity as a function of the pressure for different pulse widths and different frequencies will also be presented. In addition, we will present a comparison between the theoretical and the experimental results for the pulse shape of a short microwave pulse after it has traveled through a rectangular wave guide which contains a section of air. 23 references, 9 figures.

  18. Propagation of ultra-short solitons in stochastic Maxwell's equations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurt, Levent; Schfer, Tobias

    2014-01-15

    We study the propagation of ultra-short short solitons in a cubic nonlinear medium modeled by nonlinear Maxwell's equations with stochastic variations of media. We consider three cases: variations of (a) the dispersion, (b) the phase velocity, (c) the nonlinear coefficient. Using a modified multi-scale expansion for stochastic systems, we derive new stochastic generalizations of the short pulse equation that approximate the solutions of stochastic nonlinear Maxwell's equations. Numerical simulations show that soliton solutions of the short pulse equation propagate stably in stochastic nonlinear Maxwell's equations and that the generalized stochastic short pulse equations approximate the solutions to the stochastic Maxwell's equations over the distances under consideration. This holds for both a pathwise comparison of the stochastic equations as well as for a comparison of the resulting probability densities.

  19. Estimating propagation velocity through a surface acoustic wave sensor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Xu, Wenyuan; Huizinga, John S.

    2010-03-16

    Techniques are described for estimating the propagation velocity through a surface acoustic wave sensor. In particular, techniques which measure and exploit a proper segment of phase frequency response of the surface acoustic wave sensor are described for use as a basis of bacterial detection by the sensor. As described, use of velocity estimation based on a proper segment of phase frequency response has advantages over conventional techniques that use phase shift as the basis for detection.

  20. Computation of Diffractive Beam Propagation of Monochromatic Light

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-02-20

    Computation of diffractive beam propagation of monochromatic light through a l-dimensional (slab) structure defined by a piecewise continuous complex index of refraction. Finite difference equations are fourth-order-accurate in the lateral grid size and include discontinuities of higher-order field derivatives at dielectric interfaces. Variable grid spacing is allowed, and all dielectric interfaces are assumed to coincide with grid points.

  1. Numerical investigation of spontaneous flame propagation under RCCI conditions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bhagatwala, Ankit V; Sankaran, Ramanan; Kokjohn, Sage; Chen, Jacqueline H

    2015-06-30

    This paper presents results from one and two-dimensional direct numerical simulations under Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) conditions of a primary reference fuel (PRF) mixture consisting of n-heptane and iso-octane. RCCI uses in-cylinder blending of two fuels with different autoignition characteristics to control combustion phasing and the rate of heat release. These simulations employ an improved model of compression heating through mass source/sink terms developed in a previous work by Bhagatwala et al. (2014), which incorporates feedback from the flow to follow a predetermined experimental pressure trace. Two-dimensional simulations explored parametric variations with respect to temperature stratification, pressure profiles andmore » n-heptane concentration. Furthermore, statistics derived from analysis of diffusion/reaction balances locally normal to the flame surface were used to elucidate combustion characteristics for the different cases. Both deflagration and spontaneous ignition fronts were observed to co-exist, however it was found that higher n-heptane concentration provided a greater degree of flame propagation, whereas lower n-heptane concentration (higher fraction of iso-octane) resulted in more spontaneous ignition fronts. A significant finding was that simulations initialized with a uniform initial temperature and a stratified n-heptane concentration field, resulted in a large fraction of combustion occurring through flame propagation. The proportion of spontaneous ignition fronts increased at higher pressures due to shorter ignition delay when other factors were held constant. For the same pressure and fuel concentration, the contribution of flame propagation to the overall combustion was found to depend on the level of thermal stratification, with higher initial temperature gradients resulting in more deflagration and lower gradients generating more ignition fronts. Statistics of ignition delay are computed to assess the Zel’dovich (1980) theory for the mode of combustion propagation based on ignition delay gradients.« less

  2. Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured Materials

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Where microstructure matters... Stunt computing option Math savvy option Perspective and summary OOOO OOO OOOOOOOO OO SAND2015-1780C Wave Propagation and Dispersion in Elasto-Plastic Microstructured Materials Remi Dingreville, Joshua Robbins and Thomas E. Voth Sandia National Laboratories1 rdingre@sandia.gov TMS Annual Meeting: Constitutive Response and Modeling of Structural Materials: An SMD Symposium in Honor of G.T. Gray III's 60th Birthday Interfaces and Surfaces session Orlando, FL, March

  3. Numerical investigation of spontaneous flame propagation under RCCI conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bhagatwala, Ankit V; Sankaran, Ramanan; Kokjohn, Sage; Chen, Jacqueline H

    2015-06-30

    This paper presents results from one and two-dimensional direct numerical simulations under Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) conditions of a primary reference fuel (PRF) mixture consisting of n-heptane and iso-octane. RCCI uses in-cylinder blending of two fuels with different autoignition characteristics to control combustion phasing and the rate of heat release. These simulations employ an improved model of compression heating through mass source/sink terms developed in a previous work by Bhagatwala et al. (2014), which incorporates feedback from the flow to follow a predetermined experimental pressure trace. Two-dimensional simulations explored parametric variations with respect to temperature stratification, pressure profiles and n-heptane concentration. Furthermore, statistics derived from analysis of diffusion/reaction balances locally normal to the flame surface were used to elucidate combustion characteristics for the different cases. Both deflagration and spontaneous ignition fronts were observed to co-exist, however it was found that higher n-heptane concentration provided a greater degree of flame propagation, whereas lower n-heptane concentration (higher fraction of iso-octane) resulted in more spontaneous ignition fronts. A significant finding was that simulations initialized with a uniform initial temperature and a stratified n-heptane concentration field, resulted in a large fraction of combustion occurring through flame propagation. The proportion of spontaneous ignition fronts increased at higher pressures due to shorter ignition delay when other factors were held constant. For the same pressure and fuel concentration, the contribution of flame propagation to the overall combustion was found to depend on the level of thermal stratification, with higher initial temperature gradients resulting in more deflagration and lower gradients generating more ignition fronts. Statistics of ignition delay are computed to assess the Zel’dovich (1980) theory for the mode of combustion propagation based on ignition delay gradients.

  4. Modeling of Propagation of Interacting Cracks Under Hydraulic Pressure Gradient

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Hai; Mattson, Earl Douglas; Podgorney, Robert Karl

    2015-04-01

    A robust and reliable numerical model for fracture initiation and propagation, which includes the interactions among propagating fractures and the coupling between deformation, fracturing and fluid flow in fracture apertures and in the permeable rock matrix, would be an important tool for developing a better understanding of fracturing behaviors of crystalline brittle rocks driven by thermal and (or) hydraulic pressure gradients. In this paper, we present a physics-based hydraulic fracturing simulator based on coupling a quasi-static discrete element model (DEM) for deformation and fracturing with conjugate lattice network flow model for fluid flow in both fractures and porous matrix. Fracturing is represented explicitly by removing broken bonds from the network to represent microcracks. Initiation of new microfractures and growth and coalescence of the microcracks leads to the formation of macroscopic fractures when external and/or internal loads are applied. The coupled DEM-network flow model reproduces realistic growth pattern of hydraulic fractures. In particular, simulation results of perforated horizontal wellbore clearly demonstrate that elastic interactions among multiple propagating fractures, fluid viscosity, strong coupling between fluid pressure fluctuations within fractures and fracturing, and lower length scale heterogeneities, collectively lead to complicated fracturing patterns.

  5. 2009 Total Energy Production by State | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Total Energy Production by State 2009 Total Energy Production by State 2009 Total Energy Production by State...

  6. Problems with propagation and time evolution inf(T)gravity (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Problems with propagation and time evolution inf(T)gravity Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Problems with propagation and time evolution inf(T)gravity Authors: Ong, Yen...

  7. Propagating spectroscopy of backward volume spin waves in a metallic FeNi film

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sato, N.; Ishida, N.; Kawakami, T.; Sekiguchi, K.

    2014-01-20

    We report a propagating spin wave spectroscopy for a magnetostatic backward volume spin wave in a metallic Fe{sub 19}Ni{sub 81} film. We show that the mutual-inductance between two independent antennas detects a small but clear propagation signal of backward volume spin waves. All experimental data are consistent with the time-domain propagating spin-wave spectroscopy. The control of propagating backward spin wave enables to realize the miniaturize spin-wave circuit.

  8. Giant dipole resonance parameters with uncertainties from photonuclear cross sections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plujko, V.A.; Capote, R.; Gorbachenko, O.M.

    2011-09-15

    Updated values and corresponding uncertainties of isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR or GDR) model parameters are presented that are obtained by the least-squares fitting of theoretical photoabsorption cross sections to experimental data. The theoretical photoabsorption cross section is taken as a sum of the components corresponding to excitation of the GDR and quasideuteron contribution to the experimental photoabsorption cross section. The present compilation covers experimental data as of January 2010. - Highlights: {yields} Experimental {sigma} ({gamma}, abs) or a sum of partial cross sections are taken as input to the fitting. {yields} Data include contributions from photoproton reactions. {yields} Standard (SLO) or modified (SMLO) Lorentzian approaches are used for formulating GDR models. {yields} Spherical or axially deformed nuclear shapes are used in GDR least-squares fit. {yields} Values and uncertainties of the SLO and SMLO GDR model parameters are tabulated.

  9. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1981-02-11

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.

  10. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1983-10-04

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t[sub max]--t[sub min]) of a series of paired time signals t[sub 1] and t[sub 2] varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t[sub 1][<=]t[sub 2] and t[sub 1]+t[sub 2] equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t[sub min]) of the first signal t[sub 1] closer to t[sub max] and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20--800. 6 figs.

  11. Investigation of uncertainty components in Coulomb blockade thermometry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hahtela, O. M.; Heinonen, M.; Manninen, A.; Meschke, M.; Savin, A.; Pekola, J. P.; Gunnarsson, D.; Prunnila, M.; Penttil, J. S.; Roschier, L.

    2013-09-11

    Coulomb blockade thermometry (CBT) has proven to be a feasible method for primary thermometry in every day laboratory use at cryogenic temperatures from ca. 10 mK to a few tens of kelvins. The operation of CBT is based on single electron charging effects in normal metal tunnel junctions. In this paper, we discuss the typical error sources and uncertainty components that limit the present absolute accuracy of the CBT measurements to the level of about 1 % in the optimum temperature range. Identifying the influence of different uncertainty sources is a good starting point for improving the measurement accuracy to the level that would allow the CBT to be more widely used in high-precision low temperature metrological applications and for realizing thermodynamic temperature in accordance to the upcoming new definition of kelvin.

  12. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, George E.; Dawson, John W.

    1983-01-01

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t.sub.max -t.sub.min) of a series of paired time signals t.sub.1 and t.sub.2 varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t.sub.1 .ltoreq.t.sub.2 and t.sub.1 +t.sub.2 equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t.sub.min) of the first signal t.sub.1 closer to t.sub.max and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20-800.

  13. Uncertainties in nuclear transition matrix elements of neutrinoless ?? decay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rath, P. K.

    2013-12-30

    To estimate the uncertainties associated with the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} (K=0?/0N) for the 0{sup +} ? 0{sup +} transitions of electron and positron emitting modes of the neutrinoless ?? decay, a statistical analysis has been performed by calculating sets of eight (twelve) different nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} in the PHFB model by employing four different parameterizations of a Hamiltonian with pairing plus multipolar effective two-body interaction and two (three) different parameterizations of Jastrow short range correlations. The averages in conjunction with their standard deviations provide an estimate of the uncertainties associated the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} calculated within the PHFB model, the maximum of which turn out to be 13% and 19% owing to the exchange of light and heavy Majorana neutrinos, respectively.

  14. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    8 Minnesota - Natural Gas 2014 Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total Million Cu. Feet ... Summary statistics for natural gas - Minnesota, 2010-2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ...

  15. EQUUS Total Return Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search Name: EQUUS Total Return Inc Place: Houston, Texas Product: A business development company and VC investor that trades as a closed-end fund. EQUUS is...

  16. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Totals may not add due to independent rounding. Prices are ... 250,994 253,127 Industrial 9,332 9,088 8,833 8,497 8,156 Average Annual Consumption per Consumer (thousand cubic ...

  17. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Notes: Totals may not add due to independent rounding. Prices ... 34,078 34,283 34,339 Industrial 102 94 97 95 92 Average Annual Consumption per Consumer (thousand cubic feet) ...

  18. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    as known volumes of natural gas that were the result of leaks, damage, accidents, migration, andor blow down. Notes: Totals may not add due to independent rounding. Prices are...

  19. TotalView Parallel Debugger at NERSC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The performance of the GUI can be greatly improved if used in conjunction with free NX software. The TotalView documentation web page is a good resource for learning more...

  20. ARM - Measurement - Shortwave broadband total upwelling irradiance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Measurement : Shortwave broadband total upwelling irradiance The rate at which radiant energy, at a wavelength between 0.4 and 4 mum, is being emitted upwards into a ...

  1. "2014 Total Electric Industry- Revenue (Thousands Dollars)"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA-861U)" "State","Residential","Commercial","Industrial","Transportation","Total" "New England",8414175.4,7806276.7,2262752.4,57837.4,18541041.8 "Connecticut",2523348.7,2004629.1...

  2. 2014 Total Electric Industry- Revenue (Thousands Dollars)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Revenue (Thousands Dollars) (Data from forms EIA-861- schedules 4A-D, EIA-861S and EIA-861U) State Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Total New England 8,414,175 ...

  3. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S11. ... 2,314 764 719 180 4,046 Supplemental Gas Supplies 732 701 660 642 635 Balancing Item ...

  4. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S35. ... 3,762 7,315 10,303 Supplemental Gas Supplies 0 0 0 0 0 Balancing Item 65,897 -19,970 ...

  5. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S7. ... 473 526 484 626 1,359 Supplemental Gas Supplies 0 0 0 0 0 Balancing Item -6,645 3,976 ...

  6. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S31. ... 35 108 71 124 185 Supplemental Gas Supplies 0 0 0 0 0 Balancing Item -1,393 -3,726 ...

  7. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S51. ... 92 87 100 89 138 Supplemental Gas Supplies 0 0 0 0 0 Balancing Item -2,885 -12,890 ...

  8. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S8. ... 76 96 66 131 128 Supplemental Gas Supplies 1 0 * * 6 Balancing Item 3,249 7,362 ...

  9. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S17. ... 1,844 980 2,403 2,701 Supplemental Gas Supplies 2 1 0 0 1 Balancing Item -1,989 -7,914 ...

  10. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S32. ... 4,404 3,278 5,208 6,218 Supplemental Gas Supplies 457 392 139 255 530 Balancing Item ...

  11. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S41. ... 698 436 457 645 879 Supplemental Gas Supplies 0 0 0 0 0 Balancing Item -1,269 1,045 ...

  12. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S47. ... 0 LNG Storage 0 0 0 0 0 Supplemental Gas Supplies 1 2 3 3 5 Balancing Item -453 -1,711 ...

  13. Million Cu. Feet Percent of National Total

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to Consumers: Residential: Electric Power: Commercial: Total Delivered: Table S30. ... 195 154 146 210 211 Supplemental Gas Supplies 0 0 0 0 0 Balancing Item 17,590 4,622 ...

  14. Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists DOE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Early Career awards DOE Early Career awards Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists DOE Early Career awards Marian Jandel and Nathan Urban are among the 61 national recipients of the Energy Department's Early Career Research Program awards for 2013. May 10, 2013 Marian Jandel (left) and Nathan Urban Marian Jandel (left) and Nathan Urban Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email Marian and Nathan are excellent examples of the

  15. Comment on ''Improved bounds on entropic uncertainty relations''

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bosyk, G. M.; Portesi, M.; Plastino, A.; Zozor, S.

    2011-11-15

    We provide an analytical proof of the entropic uncertainty relations presented by J. I. de Vicente and J. Sanchez-Ruiz [Phys. Rev. A 77, 042110 (2008)] and also show that the replacement of Eq. (27) by Eq. (29) in that reference introduces solutions that do not take fully into account the constraints of the problem, which in turn lead to some mistakes in their treatment.

  16. Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Energy Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery

  17. Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological

  18. Error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Thomas Edwin Beechem; Yates, Luke; Graham, Samuel

    2015-04-22

    We investigated error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements via finite element based numerical simulation of two geometries often employed -- Joule-heating of a wire and laser-heating of a suspended wafer. Using this methodology, the accuracy and precision of the Raman-derived thermal conductivity are shown to depend on (1) assumptions within the analytical model used in the deduction of thermal conductivity, (2) uncertainty in the quantification of heat flux and temperature, and (3) the evolution of thermomechanical stress during testing. Apart from the influence of stress, errors of 5% coupled with uncertainties of ±15% are achievable for most materialsmore » under conditions typical of Raman thermometry experiments. Error can increase to >20%, however, for materials having highly temperature dependent thermal conductivities or, in some materials, when thermomechanical stress develops concurrent with the heating. A dimensionless parameter -- termed the Raman stress factor -- is derived to identify when stress effects will induce large levels of error. Together, the results compare the utility of Raman based conductivity measurements relative to more established techniques while at the same time identifying situations where its use is most efficacious.« less

  19. Error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas Edwin Beechem; Yates, Luke; Graham, Samuel

    2015-04-22

    We investigated error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements via finite element based numerical simulation of two geometries often employed -- Joule-heating of a wire and laser-heating of a suspended wafer. Using this methodology, the accuracy and precision of the Raman-derived thermal conductivity are shown to depend on (1) assumptions within the analytical model used in the deduction of thermal conductivity, (2) uncertainty in the quantification of heat flux and temperature, and (3) the evolution of thermomechanical stress during testing. Apart from the influence of stress, errors of 5% coupled with uncertainties of ±15% are achievable for most materials under conditions typical of Raman thermometry experiments. Error can increase to >20%, however, for materials having highly temperature dependent thermal conductivities or, in some materials, when thermomechanical stress develops concurrent with the heating. A dimensionless parameter -- termed the Raman stress factor -- is derived to identify when stress effects will induce large levels of error. Together, the results compare the utility of Raman based conductivity measurements relative to more established techniques while at the same time identifying situations where its use is most efficacious.

  20. Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    E. Borgonovo; C. L. Smith

    2012-10-01

    Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.

  1. Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnum, George M.; Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hemez, Francois M.; Song, Peter

    2014-01-10

    This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gap of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously. When two models reflect past data with similar accuracy, the more robust of the two is preferable for decision-making because its predictions are, by definition, less sensitive to the uncertainty.

  2. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

  3. Measurement of total ultrasonic power using thermal expansion and change in buoyancy of an absorbing target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dubey, P. K. Kumar, Yudhisther; Gupta, Reeta; Jain, Anshul; Gohiya, Chandrashekhar

    2014-05-15

    The Radiation Force Balance (RFB) technique is well established and most widely used for the measurement of total ultrasonic power radiated by ultrasonic transducer. The technique is used as a primary standard for calibration of ultrasonic transducers with relatively fair uncertainty in the low power (below 1 W) regime. In this technique, uncertainty comparatively increases in the range of few watts wherein the effects such as thermal heating of the target, cavitations, and acoustic streaming dominate. In addition, error in the measurement of ultrasonic power is also caused due to movement of absorber at relatively high radiated force which occurs at high power level. In this article a new technique is proposed which does not measure the balance output during transducer energized state as done in RFB. It utilizes the change in buoyancy of the absorbing target due to local thermal heating. The linear thermal expansion of the target changes the apparent mass in water due to buoyancy change. This forms the basis for the measurement of ultrasonic power particularly in watts range. The proposed method comparatively reduces uncertainty caused by various ultrasonic effects that occur at high power such as overshoot due to momentum of target at higher radiated force. The functionality of the technique has been tested and compared with the existing internationally recommended RFB technique.

  4. LOCA simulation: analysis of rarefaction waves propagating through geometric singularities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crouzet, Fabien; Faucher, Vincent; Galon, Pascal; Piteau, Philippe; Izquierdo, Patrick

    2012-07-01

    The propagation of a transient wave through an orifice is investigated for applications to Loss Of Coolant Accident in nuclear plants. An analytical model is proposed for the response of an orifice plate and implemented in the EUROPLEXUS fast transient dynamics software. It includes an acoustic inertial effect in addition to a quasi-steady dissipation term. The model is experimentally validated on a test rig consisting in a single pipe filled with pressurized water. The test rig is designed to generate a rapid depressurization of the pipe, by means of a bursting disk. The proposed model gives results which compare favourably with experimental data. (authors)

  5. Harmonic generation by circularly polarized laser beams propagating in plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agrawal, Ekta; Hemlata,; Jha, Pallavi

    2015-04-15

    An analytical theory is developed for studying the phenomenon of generation of harmonics by the propagation of an obliquely incident, circularly polarized laser beam in homogeneous, underdense plasma. The amplitudes of second and third harmonic radiation as well as detuning distance have been obtained and their variation with the angle of incidence is analyzed. The amplitude of harmonic radiation increases with the angle of incidence while the detuning distance decreases, for a given plasma electron density. It is observed that the generated second and third harmonic radiation is linearly and elliptically polarized, respectively. The harmonic radiation vanishes at normal incidence of the circularly polarized laser beam.

  6. A Method to Estimate Uncertainty in Radiometric Measurement Using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Traceability Chain of Radiometric Measurements Abstract Radiometric data with known and traceable uncertainty is essential for climate change studies to better understand cloud radiation interactions and the earth radiation budget. Further, adopting a known and traceable method of estimating uncertainty with respect to SI ensures that the uncertainty quoted for radiometric measurements can be compared based on documented methods of derivation. Currently, most radiometric data users rely on

  7. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    D00-64984 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Re newable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method ICEM Conference, Boulder, CO 06-25-2015 Presenter: Aron Habte, NREL 2 Motivation: * To develop a consensus standard to estimate radiometric measurement uncertainty.  At present the tendency is to look

  8. Electromagnetic wave propagation through an overdense magnetized collisional plasma layer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thoma, C.; Rose, D. V.; Miller, C. L.; Clark, R. E.; Hughes, T. P. [Voss Scientific LLC, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87108 (United States)

    2009-08-15

    The results of investigations into the feasibility of using a magnetic window to propagate electromagnetic waves through a finite-sized overdense plasma slab are described. We theoretically calculate the transmission coefficients for right- and left-handed circularly polarized plane waves through a uniform magnetized plasma slab. Using reasonable estimates for the plasma properties expected to be found in the ionized shock layer surrounding a hypersonic aircraft traveling in the earth's upper atmosphere (radio blackout conditions), and assuming a 1 GHz carrier frequency for the radio communications channel, we find that the required magnetic field for propagation of right-handed circularly polarized, or whistler, waves is on the order of a few hundred gauss. Transmission coefficients are calculated as a function of sheath thickness and are shown to be quite sensitive to the electron collision frequency. One-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the theory. These simulations also demonstrate that Ohmic heating of the electrons can be considerable. Two- and three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations using a simplified waveguide and antenna model illustrate the same general transmission behavior as the theory and one-dimensional simulations. In addition, a net focusing effect due to the plasma is also observed in two and three dimensions. These simulations can be extended to design and analyze more realistic waveguide and antenna models.

  9. Propagation of three-dimensional electron-acoustic solitary waves

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shalaby, M.; El-Sherif, L. S.; El-Labany, S. K.; Sabry, R.

    2011-06-15

    Theoretical investigation is carried out for understanding the properties of three-dimensional electron-acoustic waves propagating in magnetized plasma whose constituents are cold magnetized electron fluid, hot electrons obeying nonthermal distribution, and stationary ions. For this purpose, the hydrodynamic equations for the cold magnetized electron fluid, nonthermal electron density distribution, and the Poisson equation are used to derive the corresponding nonlinear evolution equation, Zkharov-Kuznetsov (ZK) equation, in the small- but finite- amplitude regime. The ZK equation is solved analytically and it is found that it supports both solitary and blow-up solutions. It is found that rarefactive electron-acoustic solitary waves strongly depend on the density and temperature ratios of the hot-to-cold electron species as well as the nonthermal electron parameter. Furthermore, there is a critical value for the nonthermal electron parameter, which decides whether the electron-acoustic solitary wave's amplitude is decreased or increased by changing various plasma parameters. Importantly, the change of the propagation angles leads to miss the balance between the nonlinearity and dispersion; hence, the localized pulses convert to explosive/blow-up pulses. The relevance of this study to the nonlinear electron-acoustic structures in the dayside auroral zone in the light of Viking satellite observations is discussed.

  10. Total internal reflection laser tools and methods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zediker, Mark S.; Faircloth, Brian O.; Kolachalam, Sharath K.; Grubb, Daryl L.

    2016-02-02

    There is provided high power laser tools and laser heads that utilize total internal reflection ("TIR") structures to direct the laser beam along a laser beam path within the TIR structure. The TIR structures may be a TIR prism having its hypotenuse as a TIR surface.

  11. Total pressing Indonesian gas development, exports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-24

    Total is on track to become Indonesia's leading gas exporter by the turn of the century. Total's aggressive development of its Mahakam Delta acreage in East Kalimantan is intended to keep pace with growing liquefied natural gas demand, mainly from Japan but also increasingly from South Korea and Taiwan. A frantic scramble is under way among natural gas suppliers in the Pacific Rim region, particularly those with current LNG export facilities, to accommodate projections of soaring natural gas demand in the region. Accordingly, Total's Indonesian gas production goal is the centerpiece of a larger strategy to become a major player in the Far East Asia gas scene. Its goals also fall in line with Indonesia's. Facing flat or declining oil production while domestic oil demand continues to soar along with a rapidly growing economy, Indonesia is heeding some studies that project the country could become a net oil importer by the turn of the century. The paper describes Total's Far East strategy, the Mahakam acreage which it operates, the shift to gas development, added discoveries, future development, project spending levels, and LNG export capacity.

  12. Molecular nonlinear dynamics and protein thermal uncertainty quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xia, Kelin [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)] [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Wei, Guo-Wei, E-mail: wei@math.msu.edu [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States) [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)

    2014-03-15

    This work introduces molecular nonlinear dynamics (MND) as a new approach for describing protein folding and aggregation. By using a mode system, we show that the MND of disordered proteins is chaotic while that of folded proteins exhibits intrinsically low dimensional manifolds (ILDMs). The stability of ILDMs is found to strongly correlate with protein energies. We propose a novel method for protein thermal uncertainty quantification based on persistently invariant ILDMs. Extensive comparison with experimental data and the state-of-the-art methods in the field validate the proposed new method for protein B-factor prediction.

  13. PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seitz, R

    2008-06-25

    Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

  14. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four projections, and associated kriging variances, were averaged using the posterior model probabilities as weights. Finally, cross-validation was conducted by eliminating from consideration all data from one borehole at a time, repeating the above process, and comparing the predictive capability of the model-averaged result with that of each individual model. Using two quantitative measures of comparison, the model-averaged result was superior to any individual geostatistical model of log permeability considered.

  15. PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Accardi, Alberto

    2012-10-01

    I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

  16. Preliminary Results on Uncertainty Quantification for Pattern Analytics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stracuzzi, David John; Brost, Randolph; Chen, Maximillian Gene; Malinas, Rebecca; Peterson, Matthew Gregor; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Robinson, David G.; Woodbridge, Diane

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes preliminary research into uncertainty quantification for pattern ana- lytics within the context of the Pattern Analytics to Support High-Performance Exploitation and Reasoning (PANTHER) project. The primary focus of PANTHER was to make large quantities of remote sensing data searchable by analysts. The work described in this re- port adds nuance to both the initial data preparation steps and the search process. Search queries are transformed from does the specified pattern exist in the data? to how certain is the system that the returned results match the query? We show example results for both data processing and search, and discuss a number of possible improvements for each.

  17. Identifying and bounding uncertainties in nuclear reactor thermal power calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, J.; Hauser, E.; Estrada, H.

    2012-07-01

    Determination of the thermal power generated in the reactor core of a nuclear power plant is a critical element in the safe and economic operation of the plant. Direct measurement of the reactor core thermal power is made using neutron flux instrumentation; however, this instrumentation requires frequent calibration due to changes in the measured flux caused by fuel burn-up, flux pattern changes, and instrumentation drift. To calibrate the nuclear instruments, steam plant calorimetry, a process of performing a heat balance around the nuclear steam supply system, is used. There are four basic elements involved in the calculation of thermal power based on steam plant calorimetry: The mass flow of the feedwater from the power conversion system, the specific enthalpy of that feedwater, the specific enthalpy of the steam delivered to the power conversion system, and other cycle gains and losses. Of these elements, the accuracy of the feedwater mass flow and the feedwater enthalpy, as determined from its temperature and pressure, are typically the largest contributors to the calorimetric calculation uncertainty. Historically, plants have been required to include a margin of 2% in the calculation of the reactor thermal power for the licensed maximum plant output to account for instrumentation uncertainty. The margin is intended to ensure a cushion between operating power and the power for which safety analyses are performed. Use of approved chordal ultrasonic transit-time technology to make the feedwater flow and temperature measurements (in place of traditional differential-pressure- based instruments and resistance temperature detectors [RTDs]) allows for nuclear plant thermal power calculations accurate to 0.3%-0.4% of plant rated power. This improvement in measurement accuracy has allowed many plant operators in the U.S. and around the world to increase plant power output through Measurement Uncertainty Recapture (MUR) up-rates of up to 1.7% of rated power, while also decreasing the probability of significant over-power events. This paper will examine the basic elements involved in calculation of thermal power using ultrasonic transit-time technology and will discuss the criteria for bounding uncertainties associated with each element in order to achieve reactor thermal power calculations to within 0.3% to 0.4%. (authors)

  18. Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    February 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 February 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $78.33 per barrel in January 2010, almost $4 per barrel higher than the prior month's average and matching the $78-per-barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. The WTI spot price peaked at $83.12 on January 6 and then fell to $72.85 on January 29 as the weather turned warm and concerns about the strength of world economic

  19. Soil Segregation technology: reducing uncertainty and increasing efficiency during radiological decommissioning - a case study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lombardo, A.J.; Orthen, R.F.; Shonka, J.J.; Scott, L.M.

    2007-07-01

    The regulatory release of sites and facilities (property) for restricted or unrestricted use has evolved beyond prescribed levels to model-derived dose and risk based limits. Dose models for deriving corresponding soil radionuclide concentration guidelines are necessarily simplified representations of complex processes. It is not practical to obtain data to fully or accurately characterize transport and exposure pathway processes. Similarly, it is not possible to predict future conditions with certainty absent durable land use restrictions. To compensate for the shortage of comprehensive characterization data and site specific inputs to describe the projected 'as-left' contaminated zone, conservative default values are used to derive acceptance criteria. The result is overly conservative criteria. Furthermore, implementation of a remediation plan and subsequent final surveys to show compliance with the conservative criteria often result in excessive remediation due to the large uncertainty. During a recent decommissioning project of a site contaminated with thorium, a unique approach to dose modeling and remedial action design was implemented to effectively manage end-point uncertainty. The approach used a dynamic feedback dose model and soil segregation technology to characterize impacted material with precision and accuracy not possible with static control approaches. Utilizing the remedial action goal 'over excavation' and subsequent auto-segregation of excavated material for refill, the end-state (as-left conditions of the refilled excavation) RESRAD input parameters were re-entered to assess the final dose. The segregation process produced separate below and above criteria material stockpiles whose volumes were optimized for maximum refill and minimum waste. The below criteria material was returned to the excavation without further analysis, while the above criteria material was packaged for offsite disposal. Using the activity concentration data recorded by the segregation system and the as-left configuration of the refilled excavation, the end state model of the site was prepared with substantially reduced uncertainty. The major projected benefits of this approach are reviewed as well as the performance of the segregation system and lessons learned including: 1) Total, first-attempt data discovery brought about by simultaneously conducted characterization and final status surveys, 2) Lowered project costs stemming from efficient analysis and abstraction of impacted material and reduced offsite waste disposal volume, 3) Lowered project costs due to increased remediation/construction efficiency and decreased survey and radio-analytical expenses, and 4) Improving the decommissioning experience with new regulatory guidance. (authors)

  20. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghanem, Roger G

    2014-07-31

    This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

  1. The Uncertainty in the Local Seismic Response Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pasculli, A.; Pugliese, A.; Romeo, R. W.; Sano, T.

    2008-07-08

    In the present paper is shown the influence on the local seismic response analysis exerted by considering dispersion and uncertainty in the seismic input as well as in the dynamic properties of soils. In a first attempt a 1D numerical model is developed accounting for both the aleatory nature of the input motion and the stochastic variability of the dynamic properties of soils. The seismic input is introduced in a non-conventional way through a power spectral density, for which an elastic response spectrum, derived--for instance--by a conventional seismic hazard analysis, is required with an appropriate level of reliability. The uncertainty in the geotechnical properties of soils are instead investigated through a well known simulation technique (Monte Carlo method) for the construction of statistical ensembles. The result of a conventional local seismic response analysis given by a deterministic elastic response spectrum is replaced, in our approach, by a set of statistical elastic response spectra, each one characterized by an appropriate level of probability to be reached or exceeded. The analyses have been carried out for a well documented real case-study. Lastly, we anticipate a 2D numerical analysis to investigate also the spatial variability of soil's properties.

  2. Quantifying uncertainty in material damage from vibrational data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Butler, T.; Huhtala, A.; Juntunen, M.

    2015-02-15

    The response of a vibrating beam to a force depends on many physical parameters including those determined by material properties. Damage caused by fatigue or cracks results in local reductions in stiffness parameters and may drastically alter the response of the beam. Data obtained from the vibrating beam are often subject to uncertainties and/or errors typically modeled using probability densities. The goal of this paper is to estimate and quantify the uncertainty in damage modeled as a local reduction in stiffness using uncertain data. We present various frameworks and methods for solving this parameter determination problem. We also describe a mathematical analysis to determine and compute useful output data for each method. We apply the various methods in a specified sequence that allows us to interface the various inputs and outputs of these methods in order to enhance the inferences drawn from the numerical results obtained from each method. Numerical results are presented using both simulated and experimentally obtained data from physically damaged beams.

  3. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl

    2008-08-18

    The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.

  4. Data Filtering Impact on PV Degradation Rates and Uncertainty (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D. C.; Kurtz, S. R.

    2012-03-01

    To sustain the commercial success of photovoltaics (PV) it becomes vital to know how power output decreases with time. In order to predict power delivery, degradation rates must be determined accurately. Data filtering, any data treatment assessment of long-term field behavior, is discussed as part of a more comprehensive uncertainty analysis and can be one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in long-term performance studies. Several distinct filtering methods such as outlier removal and inclusion of only sunny days on several different metrics such as PVUSA, performance ratio, DC power to plane-of-array irradiance ratio, uncorrected, and temperature-corrected were examined. PVUSA showed the highest sensitivity while temperature-corrected power over irradiance ratio was found to be the least sensitive to data filtering conditions. Using this ratio it is demonstrated that quantification of degradation rates with a statistical accuracy of +/- 0.2%/year within 4 years of field data is possible on two crystalline silicon and two thin-film systems.

  5. Frustrated total internal reflection acoustic field sensor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kallman, Jeffrey S.

    2000-01-01

    A frustrated total internal reflection acoustic field sensor which allows the acquisition of the acoustic field over an entire plane, all at once. The sensor finds use in acoustic holography and acoustic diffraction tomography. For example, the sensor may be produced by a transparent plate with transparent support members tall enough to support one or more flexible membranes at an appropriate height for frustrated total internal reflection to occur. An acoustic wave causes the membrane to deflect away from its quiescent position and thus changes the amount of light that tunnels through the gap formed by the support members and into the membrane, and so changes the amount of light reflected by the membrane. The sensor(s) is illuminated by a uniform tight field, and the reflection from the sensor yields acoustic wave amplitude and phase information which can be picked up electronically or otherwise.

  6. Fractionated total body irradiation for metastatic neuroblastoma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kun, L.E.; Casper, J.T.; Kline, R.W.; Piaskowski, V.D.

    1981-11-01

    Twelve patients over one year old with neuroblastoma (NBL) metastatic to bone and bone marrow entered a study of adjuvant low-dose, fractionated total body irradiation (TBI). Six children who achieved a ''complete clinical response'' following chemotherapy (cyclophosphamide and adriamycin) and surgical resection of the abdominal primary received TBI (10 rad/fraction to totals of 100-120 rad/10-12 fx/12-25 days). Two children received concurrent local irradiation for residual abdominal tumor. The intervals from cessation of chemotherapy to documented progression ranged from 2-16 months, not substatially different from patients receiving similar chemotherapy and surgery without TBI. Three additional children with progressive NBL received similar TBI (80-120 rad/8-12 fx) without objective response.

  7. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Exports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Exports Product: Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Crude Oil Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases Pentanes Plus Liquefied Petroleum Gases Ethane/Ethylene Propane/Propylene Normal Butane/Butylene Isobutane/Isobutylene Other Liquids Hydrogen/Oxygenates/Renewables/Other Hydrocarbons Oxygenates (excl. Fuel Ethanol) Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) Other Oxygenates Renewable Fuels (incl. Fuel Ethanol) Fuel Ethanol Biomass-Based Diesel Unfinished Oils Naphthas and Lighter

  8. Error field penetration and locking to the backward propagating wave

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Finn, John M.; Cole, Andrew J.; Brennan, Dylan P.

    2015-12-30

    In this letter we investigate error field penetration, or locking, behavior in plasmas having stable tearing modes with finite real frequencies wr in the plasma frame. In particular, we address the fact that locking can drive a significant equilibrium flow. We show that this occurs at a velocity slightly above v = wr/k, corresponding to the interaction with a backward propagating tearing mode in the plasma frame. Results are discussed for a few typical tearing mode regimes, including a new derivation showing that the existence of real frequencies occurs for viscoresistive tearing modes, in an analysis including the effects ofmore » pressure gradient, curvature and parallel dynamics. The general result of locking to a finite velocity flow is applicable to a wide range of tearing mode regimes, indeed any regime where real frequencies occur.« less

  9. Wave propagation in an epoxy-graphite laminate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clements, B.E.; Johnson, J.N.; Addessio, F.L.

    1997-11-01

    The third-order, nonhomogenized, dynamic method of cells is used to calculate the particle velocity for a shock wave experiment involving an epoxy{endash}graphite laminate. Constitutive relations suitable for the various materials are used. This includes linear and nonlinear elasticity and, when appropriate, viscoelasticity. It is found to be beneficial to incorporate artificial viscosity into the analysis. Artificial viscosity successfully removes the unphysical high-frequency ringing in the numerical solutions of the theory, while leaving the physical oscillations, characteristic of wave propagation in a periodic laminate, largely undiminished. It also allows the viscoelastic relaxed moduli to be closer to their unrelaxed counterparts than in a previous calculation, thus making them more acceptable. The results agree well with the corresponding plate-impact experiment, and are compared to the second-order theory of Clements, Johnson, and Hixson [Phys. Rev. E, {bold 54}, 6876 (1996)]. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  10. Error field penetration and locking to the backward propagating wave

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finn, John M.; Cole, Andrew J.; Brennan, Dylan P.

    2015-12-30

    In this letter we investigate error field penetration, or locking, behavior in plasmas having stable tearing modes with finite real frequencies wr in the plasma frame. In particular, we address the fact that locking can drive a significant equilibrium flow. We show that this occurs at a velocity slightly above v = wr/k, corresponding to the interaction with a backward propagating tearing mode in the plasma frame. Results are discussed for a few typical tearing mode regimes, including a new derivation showing that the existence of real frequencies occurs for viscoresistive tearing modes, in an analysis including the effects of pressure gradient, curvature and parallel dynamics. The general result of locking to a finite velocity flow is applicable to a wide range of tearing mode regimes, indeed any regime where real frequencies occur.

  11. Modeling self-propagating exothermic reactions in multilayer systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jayaraman, S.; Mann, A.B.; Knio, O.M.; Van Heerden, D.; Bao, G.; Weihs, T.P.

    1998-12-31

    Self-propagating reactions in free-standing multilayer foils provide a unique opportunity to study very rapid, diffusion-based transformations in non-equilibrium material systems. To fully understand the coupling between mass and thermal diffusion controlling these reactions and to optimize the commercial use of reactive foils, the authors have undertaken analytical and numerical modeling. Their analytical model predicts an increase in the reaction velocities with decreasing bilayer thickness down to a critical bilayer thickness and a reversal in this trend below the critical thickness. Predicting reaction characteristics such as the flame thermal width, the reaction zone width and the effect of variations in material properties with temperature has proven analytically intractable. To overcome these limitations, the authors have also used numerical methods to determine the composition and temperature profiles ahead of the reaction front for different multilayer periods and premixing. The results are compared with experimental values where possible.

  12. Electromagnetic Wave Propagation in Two-Dimensional Photonic Crystals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stavroula Foteinopoulou

    2003-12-12

    In this dissertation, they have undertaken the challenge to understand the unusual propagation properties of the photonic crystal (PC). The photonic crystal is a medium where the dielectric function is periodically modulated. These types of structures are characterized by bands and gaps. In other words, they are characterized by frequency regions where propagation is prohibited (gaps) and regions where propagation is allowed (bands). In this study they focus on two-dimensional photonic crystals, i.e., structures with periodic dielectric patterns on a plane and translational symmetry in the perpendicular direction. They start by studying a two-dimensional photonic crystal system for frequencies inside the band gap. The inclusion of a line defect introduces allowed states in the otherwise prohibited frequency spectrum. The dependence of the defect resonance state on different parameters such as size of the structure, profile of incoming source, etc., is investigated in detail. For this study, they used two popular computational methods in photonic crystal research, the Finite Difference Time Domain method (FDTD) and the Transfer Matrix Method (TMM). The results for the one-dimensional defect system are analyzed, and the two methods, FDTD and TMM, are compared. Then, they shift their attention only to periodic two-dimensional crystals, concentrate on their band properties, and study their unusual refractive behavior. Anomalous refractive phenomena in photonic crystals included cases where the beam refracts on the ''wrong'' side of the surface normal. The latter phenomenon, is known as negative refraction and was previously observed in materials where the wave vector, the electric field, and the magnetic field form a left-handed set of vectors. These materials are generally called left-handed materials (LHM) or negative index materials (NIM). They investigated the possibility that the photonic crystal behaves as a LHM, and how this behavior relates with the observed negatively refractive phenomena. They found that in the PC system, negative refraction is neither a prerequisite nor guarantees left-handed behavior. They examined carefully the condition to obtain left-handed behavior in the PC. They proposed a wedge type of experiment, in accordance with the experiment performed on the traditional LHM, to test these conditions. They found that for certain frequencies the PC shows left-handed behavior and acts in some respects like a homogeneous medium with a negative refractive index. they used the realistic PC system for this case to show how negative refraction occurs at the interface between a material with a positive and a material with a negative refractive index. Their findings indicate that the formation of the negatively refracted beam is not instantaneous and involves a transient time. With this time-dependent analysis, they were able to address previous controversial issues about negative refraction concerning causality and the speed of light limit. Finally, they attempt a systematic study of anomalous refractive phenomena that can occur at the air-PC interface. They observe cases where only a single refracted beam (in the positive or negative direction) is present, as well as cases with birefringence. they classify these different effects according to their origin and type of propagation (left-handed or not). For a complete study of the system, they also obtain expressions for the energy and group velocities, and show their equality. For cases with very low index contrast, band folding becomes an artificiality. They discuss the validity of their findings when they move to the limit of photonic crystals with a low index modulation.

  13. An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

    2014-03-01

    A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing the range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.

  14. A STUDY OF ALFVN WAVE PROPAGATION AND HEATING THE CHROMOSPHERE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tu, Jiannan; Song, Paul

    2013-11-01

    Alfvn wave propagation, reflection, and heating of the chromosphere are studied for a one-dimensional solar atmosphere by self-consistently solving plasma, neutral fluid, and Maxwell's equations with incorporation of the Hall effect and strong electron-neutral, electron-ion, and ion-neutral collisions. We have developed a numerical model based on an implicit backward difference formula of second-order accuracy both in time and space to solve stiff governing equations resulting from strong inter-species collisions. A non-reflecting boundary condition is applied to the top boundary so that the wave reflection within the simulation domain can be unambiguously determined. It is shown that due to the density gradient the Alfvn waves are partially reflected throughout the chromosphere and more strongly at higher altitudes with the strongest reflection at the transition region. The waves are damped in the lower chromosphere dominantly through Joule dissipation, producing heating strong enough to balance the radiative loss for the quiet chromosphere without invoking anomalous processes or turbulences. The heating rates are larger for weaker background magnetic fields below ?500 km with higher-frequency waves subject to heavier damping. There is an upper cutoff frequency, depending on the background magnetic field, above which the waves are completely damped. At the frequencies below which the waves are not strongly damped, the interaction of reflected waves with the upward propagating waves produces power at their double frequencies, which leads to more damping. The wave energy flux transmitted to the corona is one order of magnitude smaller than that of the driving source.

  15. Beam Propagation For The Laser Inertial Confinement Fusion-Fission Energy

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Engine (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Beam Propagation For The Laser Inertial Confinement Fusion-Fission Energy Engine Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Beam Propagation For The Laser Inertial Confinement Fusion-Fission Energy Engine Several potential issues concerning laser-beam propagation thorough the LIFE target chambers are addressed. It is found that the absorption due to inverse Bremsstrahlung limits the gas density to approximately 2 {micro}g/cc of xenon gas. A

  16. Wave Propagation in Jointed Geologic Media (Technical Report) | SciTech

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Connect Wave Propagation in Jointed Geologic Media Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Wave Propagation in Jointed Geologic Media Predictive modeling capabilities for wave propagation in a jointed geologic media remain a modern day scientific frontier. In part this is due to a lack of comprehensive understanding of the complex physical processes associated with the transient response of geologic material, and in part it is due to numerical challenges that prohibit accurate

  17. "Table A28. Total Expenditures for Purchased Energy Sources...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Expenditures for Purchased Energy Sources by Census Region" " and Economic ... "," ","Coke"," ","Row" "Economic Characteristics(a)","Total","Electricity...

  18. Table 6a. Total Electricity Consumption per Effective Occupied...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Total Electricity Consumption per Effective Occupied Square Foot, 1992 Building Characteristics All Buildings Using Electricity (thousand) Total Electricity Consumption...

  19. Total Adjusted Sales of Distillate Fuel Oil

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    End Use: Total Residential Commercial Industrial Oil Company Farm Electric Power Railroad Vessel Bunkering On-Highway Military Off-Highway All Other Period: Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: End Use Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 View History U.S. 55,664,448 58,258,830 59,769,444 57,512,994 58,675,008 61,890,990 1984-2014 East Coast (PADD 1) 18,219,180 17,965,794 17,864,868 16,754,388

  20. Total Adjusted Sales of Residual Fuel Oil

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    End Use: Total Commercial Industrial Oil Company Electric Power Vessel Bunkering Military All Other Period: Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: End Use Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 View History U.S. 7,835,436 8,203,062 7,068,306 5,668,530 4,883,466 3,942,750 1984-2014 East Coast (PADD 1) 3,339,162 3,359,265 2,667,576 1,906,700 1,699,418 1,393,068 1984-2014 New England (PADD 1A) 318,184