National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for topic includes forecast

  1. Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic 33 Total Projects Developing and Enhancing Workforce Training Programs

  2. SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase 1 Release 1 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Production and Fuel Cell Membrane Topics SBIRSTTR FY16 Phase 1 Release 1 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen Production and Fuel Cell Membrane Topics August 18, 2015 - ...

  3. SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase 1 Release 1 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Production and Fuel Cell Membrane Topics | Department of Energy 1 Release 1 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen Production and Fuel Cell Membrane Topics SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase 1 Release 1 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen Production and Fuel Cell Membrane Topics August 18, 2015 - 4:55pm Addthis The U.S. Department of Energy has announced the 2016 Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) Phase I Release 1 Topics, including hydrogen production from

  4. SBIR/STTR Phase I Release 2 Technical Topics Announced for FY14 Fuel Cell Topics Included

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Phase I Release 2 technical topics include prototype fuel cell-battery electric hybrid trucks for waste transportation and novel membranes and non-platinum group metal catalysts for direct methanol as well as hydrogen fuel cells.

  5. SBIR/STTR Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen and Fuel Cells |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen and Fuel Cells SBIR/STTR Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen and Fuel Cells October 31, 2014 - 12:05pm Addthis The 2015 Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) Phase I Release 2 topics have been released and include two hydrogen and fuel cell related topics: fuel cell-battery electric hybrid trucks and in-line quality control devices for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel

  6. SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase I Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Delivery and Two Technology Transfer Opportunities | Department of Energy I Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen Delivery and Two Technology Transfer Opportunities SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase I Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen Delivery and Two Technology Transfer Opportunities November 13, 2015 - 12:22pm Addthis The U.S. Department of Energy has announced the 2016 Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) Phase I Release 2 Topics,

  7. FY17 SBIR Phase I Release 1 Topics Announced: Includes Fuel Cell Catalysts

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Hydrogen Delivery | Department of Energy FY17 SBIR Phase I Release 1 Topics Announced: Includes Fuel Cell Catalysts and Hydrogen Delivery FY17 SBIR Phase I Release 1 Topics Announced: Includes Fuel Cell Catalysts and Hydrogen Delivery July 21, 2016 - 1:22pm Addthis The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced the 2017 Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) Phase I Release 1 topics, including two subtopics focused on hydrogen and fuel

  8. AMO Issues Request for Information on Clean Energy Manufacturing Topics, Including Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The AMO seeks information on mid-Technology Readiness Level R&D needs, market challenges, supply chain challenges, and shared facility needs addressing clean energy manufacturing topics, including the fuel cell and hydrogen sectors.

  9. JLab announces two Spring Science Series events - topics include 'scale of

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    universe' and 'how things work' | Jefferson Lab announces two Spring Science Series events - topics include 'scale of universe' and 'how things work' Jefferson Lab announces two Spring Science Series events - topics include 'scale of universe' and 'how things work' January 19, 2006 Jefferson Lab's 2006 Spring Science Series kicks off at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 21, in the CEBAF Center auditorium with astronomer, teacher and author Jeffrey Bennett from the University of Colorado (Boulder)

  10. SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase 1 Release 2 Topics Announced—Includes Hydrogen Delivery and Two Technology Transfer Opportunities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has announced the 2016 Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) Phase I Release 2 Topics, including magnetocaloric materials development for hydrogen delivery and two technology transfer opportunities.

  11. FY17 SBIR Phase I Release 1 Topics Announced: Includes Fuel Cell...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The fuel cell subtopic includes novel, durable supports for low-platinum group metal (PGM) catalysts for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells. The hydrogen delivery ...

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  13. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  14. Topic Committee

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    RAP Work Plan Topics Page 1 of 3 Topic Committee Potential FY 2016 Action/Product Context (from FY 2016 HAB Work Plan) 6-Month Status (IM, Committee, Advice, Deferred, No Action) 1. 100 Area retrieval process, K Basin RAP Project update (May not be ready until 2017 for an update; work ready in 2018 per milestone) ď‚· Attended tour in October 2015, including visit to MO-500/Sludge Annex facility 2. 100 D/H Proposed Plan RAP Project update Cleanup of soils and groundwater at D/H. Are the proposed

  15. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  17. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  19. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  20. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  1. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  2. Featured Topic Pages

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Featured Topic Pages * Renowned scientists, with information about the scientists' R&D results * Significant DOE research disciplines, with R&D results * Manhattan Project, including scientists and key events Laureates * Nobel Prize winners associated with DOE and predecessor agencies * Winners of the Enrico Fermi Award, a U.S. Presidential award Database * Selected documents about noteworthy R&D results * Documents and individual pages searchable by word or phrase * Tag cloud

  3. Technical Assistance Topics | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technical Assistance Topics Technical Assistance Topics Topics addressed are those of greatest interest to states, regions, and Tribes, including: Reliability, resiliency, and cyber security of electric power systems Electric resource planning, integrated resource planning, regional transmission planning, and resource acquisition strategies Ratepayer-funded energy efficiency, demand response, and smart grid programs Renewable energy development, including state renewable portfolio standards,

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  5. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  7. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  8. Technical Assistance Topics | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Electricity Policy Coordination and Implementation » Electricity Policy Technical Assistance Program » Technical Assistance Topics Technical Assistance Topics Topics addressed are those of greatest interest to states, regions, and Tribes, including: Reliability, resiliency, and cyber security of electric power systems Electric resource planning, integrated resource planning, regional transmission planning, and resource acquisition strategies Ratepayer-funded energy efficiency, demand response,

  9. Hot Topics Workshops | June 2016 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Workshops | June 2016 Hot Topics Workshops | June 2016 A look at our workshops this past June on various topics including nuclear energy, biofuels, and renewable

  10. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  11. JLab announces two Spring Science Series events - topics include...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the University of Virginia, will examine "How Things Work." He will offer the audience an introduction to the physics and science found in everyday life; and examine objects from...

  12. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  13. TEC Communications Topic Group

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    procurement - Routing criteriaemergency preparedness Tribal Issues Topic Group * TEPP Navajo Nation (Tom Clawson) - 1404 - Needs Assessment * Identified strengths and...

  14. PACKAGE INCLUDES:

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PACKAGE INCLUDES: Airfare from Seattle, 4 & 5 Star Hotels, Transfers, Select Meals, Guided Tours and Excursions DAY 01: BANGKOK - ARRIVAL DAY 02: BANGKOK - SIGHTSEEING DAY 03: BANGKOK - FLOATING MARKET DAY 04: BANGKOK - AT LEISURE DAY 05: BANGKOK - CHIANG MAI BY AIR DAY 06: CHIANG MAI - SIGHTSEEING DAY 07: CHIANG MAI - ELEPHANT CAMP DAY 08: CHIANG MAI - PHUKET BY AIR DAY 09: PHUKET - PHI PHI ISLAND BY FERRY DAY 10: PHUKET - AT LEISURE DAY 11: PHUKET - CORAL ISLAND BY SPEEDBOAT DAY 12: PHUKET

  15. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  16. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  17. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  18. TEC Communications Topic Group

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Tribal Issues Topic Group Judith Holm, Chair April 21, 2004 Albuquerque, NM Tribal Issues Topic Group * February Tribal Summit with Secretary of Energy (Kristen Ellis, CI) - Held in conjunction with NCAI mid-year conference - First Summit held in response to DOE Indian Policy - Addressed barriers to communication and developing framework for interaction Tribal Issues Topic Group * Summit (continued) - Federal Register Notice published in March soliciting input on how to improve summit process

  19. UNIRIB: Physics Topics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Physics Topics Research Capitalizing on the strengths of nine collaborating research ... Ion Beam (UNIRIB) consortium is conducting research at the forefront of nuclear physics. ...

  20. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  1. Physics Topics - MST - UW Plasma Physics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Physics Topics UW Madison Madison Symmetric Torus Physics Topics MST HomeGraduate Student InformationLinksTourControl and Auxiliary SystemsPhysics TopicsDeviceResearch MissionMST People mst logo CPLA Home Directory Publications Links Internal University of Wisconsin Physics Department Research funding includes support from: Department of Energy National Science Foundation The MST physics challenges are large and many, but much of our work is captured in the following four major RFP physics goals

  2. LANSCE | Users | LUG | Topical User Workshop

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 LANSCE Topical User Meeting | January 9-10 2012 LANSCE Topical User Workshop LANSCE will host the 2012 Topical User Workshop, January 9-10, 2012. We hope to see you there! Registration | Accommodations | Agenda (some presentations are included on the agenda) LANL foreign nationals may register at anytime. | Poster Dimensions: 32 in x 40 in This workshop will solicit user input for the scientific opportunities offered by the pulse stacker and superconducting accelerator that LANSCE has proposed

  3. Presentation: QER Energy Topics

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A briefing to the Secretary's Energy Advisory Board on QER Energy Topics (Energy Flows, Water Flows, and Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison) prepared by: A.J. Simon, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

  4. ARM - Topic List

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    TeachersTopic List Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Topic List Atmosphere Atmospheric Heat Budget Atmospheric Pressure Composition of the Atmosphere Evolution of the Atmosphere Mesosphere Stratosphere Thermosphere Troposphere Oceans Oceans Sea Surface and Sea Level Weather and

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  6. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  7. Topical Committee | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topical Committee Topical Committee In the interest of optimum technology transfer, the DOE Technical Standards Program (TSP) has set up a network of topical committees. These committees provide a forum for communication across the DOE complex on technical standards related activities. If you would like information about a specific topical committee, or wish to join one of the groups, we've provided a roster of TSP Topical Committees and corresponding Topical Committee Chairpersons. Expectations

  8. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  9. Focus Group Meeting (Topical Meeting)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Topical Meeting - Training Meeting agenda, summary and information package Meeting Date: April 30, 2008

  10. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  11. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  12. Manufacturing Innovation Topics Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) and the Office of the Secretary of Defense Manufacturing Technology Program (OSD ManTech) will host a workshop to discuss AMO's recent Request for Information (RFI) on Clean Energy Manufacturing Topic Areas as well as the recent areas of interest announced by OSD ManTech for a new Manufacturing Innovation Institute on October 8-9, 2014 in Fort Worth, TX.

  13. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  14. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  15. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  16. Chemistry {ampersand} Materials Science progress report summary of selected research and development topics, FY97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Newkirk, L.

    1997-12-01

    This report contains summaries of research performed in the Chemistry and Materials Science division. Topics include Metals and Ceramics, High Explosives, Organic Synthesis, Instrument Development, and other topics.

  17. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Consolidated Grant Topic Group |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Consolidated Grant Topic Group TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Consolidated Grant Topic Group The Consolidated Grant Topic Group arose from recommendations provided by the TEC and other external parties to the DOE Senior Executive Transportation Forum in July 1998. It was proposed that the consolidation of multiple funding streams from numerous DOE sources into a single grant would provide a more equitable and efficient means of assistance to States and Tribes

  18. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  19. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  20. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  4. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  5. TECHNICAL STANDARDS PROGRAM TOPICAL COMMITTEES

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    PurposeThis procedure describes how topical committees are organized and recognized under the Technical Standards Program. 

  6. Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment | Photosynthetic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Technologies campus, followed by a brief presentation. Topics will include home automation, the internet of things, wireless sensor networks and other smart technologies. The...

  7. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  8. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  9. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  11. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  12. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  13. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. Quark-gluon plasma (Selected Topics)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zakharov, V. I.

    2012-09-15

    Introductory lectures to the theory of (strongly interacting) quark-gluon plasma given at the Winter School of Physics of ITEP (Moscow, February 2010). We emphasize theoretical issues highlighted by the discovery of the low viscosity of the plasma. The topics include relativistic hydrodynamics, manifestations of chiral anomaly in hydrodynamics, superfluidity, relativistic superfluid hydrodynamics, effective stringy scalars, holographic models of Yang-Mills theories.

  16. Special Topics and Data Reports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    (HTML format) Yellow Arrow Energy Consumption and Expenditures (HTML format) adobe logo Download Acrobat Reader for viewing PDF files. Special Topics and Data Reports...

  17. Innovative Topics for Advanced Biofuels

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Innovative Topics for Advanced Biofuels Jonathan Male, Ph.D. PNNL Report-Out Webinar ... into biomass sugars to feed advanced biofuels Separations - Compatibility with ...

  18. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  19. Organic solvent topical report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowley, W.L.

    1998-04-30

    This report is the technical basis for the accident and consequence analyses used in the Hanford Tank Farms Basis for Interim Operation. The report also contains the scientific and engineering information and reference material needed to understand the organic solvent safety issue. This report includes comments received from the Chemical Reactions Subcommittee of the Tank Advisory Panel.

  20. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  2. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Communications | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Communications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Communications The Communications Topic Group was convened in April 1998 to improve internal and external strategic level communications regarding DOE shipments of radioactive and other hazardous materials. Major issues under consideration by this Topic Group include: - Examination of DOE external and internal communications processes; - Roles and responsibilities when communicating with a diverse range of stakeholders; and -

  3. Events & Topics | Metrolink Tour | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Events & Topics | Metrolink Tour Events & Topics | Metrolink Tour

  4. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  5. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  6. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  7. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  8. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  9. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  10. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  11. Missouri Botanical Gardens Tour | Events & Topics | Photosynthetic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    | Events & Topics Missouri Botanical Gardens Tour | Events & Topics PARC welcomed community members for our guided tour of the Missouri Botanical Garden. http:...

  12. Events & Topics In Bioenergy | Photosynthetic Antenna Research...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Events & Topics In Bioenergy Events & Topics In Bioenergy Dr. Chenyang Lu Smart Building with Wireless Sensor Networks Dr. Joseph Cullen "Measuring the Environmental Benefits of ...

  13. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  14. Pump apparatus including deconsolidator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sonwane, Chandrashekhar; Saunders, Timothy; Fitzsimmons, Mark Andrew

    2014-10-07

    A pump apparatus includes a particulate pump that defines a passage that extends from an inlet to an outlet. A duct is in flow communication with the outlet. The duct includes a deconsolidator configured to fragment particle agglomerates received from the passage.

  15. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  16. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  17. Optical modulator including grapene

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Liu, Ming; Yin, Xiaobo; Zhang, Xiang

    2016-06-07

    The present invention provides for a one or more layer graphene optical modulator. In a first exemplary embodiment the optical modulator includes an optical waveguide, a nanoscale oxide spacer adjacent to a working region of the waveguide, and a monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to the spacer. In a second exemplary embodiment, the optical modulator includes at least one pair of active media, where the pair includes an oxide spacer, a first monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to a first side of the spacer, and a second monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to a second side of the spacer, and at least one optical waveguide adjacent to the pair.

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  19. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  20. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  1. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  3. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  4. Hot topics from the Tevatron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glenzinski, D.; /Fermilab

    2008-01-01

    The Tevatron Run-II began in March 2001. To date, both the CDF and D0 experiments have collected 1 fb{sup -1} of data each. The results obtained from this data set were summarized at this conference in 39 parallel session presentations covering a wide range of topics. The author summarizes the most important of those results here and comments on some of the prospects for the future.

  5. 2012 LANSCE Topical User Meeting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 LANSCE Topical User Meeting January 9-10, 2012 The Office of Defense Programs is developing a long-term strategy for the construction of new experimental science facilities supporting NNSA missions. The new facilities will provide the critical science and technology capabilities necessary to execute the 21 st century responsibilities of NNSA in executing its mission and in supporting the broader national security agenda. The call focuses on large facilities with costs exceeding $100M. The NNSA

  6. Preface to Special Topic: Marine Renewable Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pinto, F. T.; Iglesias, G.; Santos, P. R.; Deng, Zhiqun

    2015-12-30

    Marine renewable energy (MRE) is generates from waves, currents, tides, and thermal resources in the ocean. MRE has been identified as a potential commercial-scale source of renewable energy. This special topic presents a compilation of works selected from the 3rd IAHR Europe Congress, held in Porto, Portugal, in 2014. It covers different subjects relevant to MRE, including resource assessment, marine energy sector policies, energy source comparisons based on levelized cost, proof-of-concept and new-technology development for wave and tidal energy exploitation, and assessment of possible inference between wave energy converters (WEC).

  7. Topics: Determining the Beta Limit - MST - UW Plasma Physics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Determining the Beta Limit UW Madison Madison Symmetric Torus Topics: Determining the Beta Limit MST HomeGraduate Student InformationLinksTourControl and Auxiliary SystemsPhysics TopicsDeviceResearch MissionMST People mst logo CPLA Home Directory Publications Links Internal University of Wisconsin Physics Department Research funding includes support from: Department of Energy National Science Foundation One of the reasons improved confinement in MST can be described as "tokamak-like"

  8. 18th Topical Conference High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics (HTPD) |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab May 16, 2010, 9:00am to May 20, 2010, 5:00pm Conference Wildwood, New Jersey 18th Topical Conference High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics (HTPD) The 18th Topical Conference on High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics will be held May 16-20, 2010 in Wildwood, New Jersey. This biennial conference brings together plasma physicists from a variety of fields including magnetic confinement fusion, inertial confinement fusion, space plasmas, astrophysics, and industrial

  9. SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase I Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell applications. ... to develop low cost electronics packaging that is manufacturable ... Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Applications: ...

  10. Opportunities in the Fusion Energy Sciences Program [Includes Appendix C: Topical Areas Characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-06-01

    Recent years have brought dramatic advances in the scientific understanding of fusion plasmas and in the generation of fusion power in the laboratory. Today, there is little doubt that fusion energy production is feasible. The challenge is to make fusion energy practical. As a result of the advances of the last few years, there are now exciting opportunities to optimize fusion systems so that an attractive new energy source will be available when it may be needed in the middle of the next century. The risk of conflicts arising from energy shortages and supply cutoffs, as well as the risk of severe environmental impacts from existing methods of energy production, are among the reasons to pursue these opportunities.

  11. SBIR/STTR Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen and Fuel...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and in-line quality control devices for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells. ... for PEM fuel cell membrane electrode assembly (MEA) component manufacturing processes. ...

  12. SBIR/STTR FY16 Phase 1 Release 2 Topics Announced-Includes Hydrogen...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    is focused on durable, high activity electrocatalyst with low platinum content and low cost for polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell applications. The second TTO is focused on...

  13. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  14. WTP Communications Strategy Discussion Topics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Discussion Topics For discussion at the April 7, 2015 PIC meeting Issue Managers: Bob Suyama, Dave Bernhard, Melanie Myers-Magnuson, Dirk Dunning, Liz Mattson, Pam Larsen, Ken Niles Some potential questions and areas that the TWC/PIC need to discuss in order to develop a Communica- tions Strategy for the Waste Treatment Plant. These questions represent the data that the TWC/PIC might need in order to provide a plan that will be of value to the Tri-Party Agencies and the Public and Stakeholders.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  16. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  17. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  18. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  19. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  20. Framework Topic Briefing: Direct Feed LAW

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    February 13, 2014 Framework Topic Briefing: Direct Feed LAW Next steps: Put Dick's handouts on SharePoint * Continue Framework topic briefing series Page 1 System Plan 7 Next ...

  1. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Routing

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Routing Topic Group has been established to examine topics of interest and relevance concerning routing of shipments of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) to a...

  2. Energy & Manufacturing Workforce Training Topics List - Version...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    & Manufacturing Workforce Training Topics List - Version 1.7 (02.11.14) Energy & Manufacturing Workforce Training Topics List - Version 1.7 (02.11.14) View this searchable list of ...

  3. OSTIblog Articles in the widgets Topic | OSTI, US Dept of Energy...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... DOE resources including grants and contracts, internships,... Related Topics: .EDUconnections, education, widgets Read more... Dynamically OSTI--Web 2.0 -- Enabling ...

  4. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  6. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  7. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  8. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  9. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  10. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  11. Decision Point 1 Topical Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yablonsky, Al; Barsoumian, Shant; Legere, David

    2013-05-01

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 2a of the SkyMine® Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO2 from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO2 to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO2 capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to the point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and proliferation. The overall process is carbon negative, resulting in mineralization of CO2 that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at the commercial scale. The project is being conducted in two phases. The primary objectives of Phase 1 were to elaborate proven SkyMine® process chemistry to commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2, complete a NEPA evaluation, and develop a comprehensive carbon life cycle analysis. The objective of the current Phase (2a) is to complete the detailed design of the pilot plant to be built in Phase 2b.

  12. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  14. Tracking topic birth and death in LDA.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, Andrew T.; Robinson, David Gerald

    2011-09-01

    Most topic modeling algorithms that address the evolution of documents over time use the same number of topics at all times. This obscures the common occurrence in the data where new subjects arise and old ones diminish or disappear entirely. We propose an algorithm to model the birth and death of topics within an LDA-like framework. The user selects an initial number of topics, after which new topics are created and retired without further supervision. Our approach also accommodates many of the acceleration and parallelization schemes developed in recent years for standard LDA. In recent years, topic modeling algorithms such as latent semantic analysis (LSA)[17], latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)[10] and their descendants have offered a powerful way to explore and interrogate corpora far too large for any human to grasp without assistance. Using such algorithms we are able to search for similar documents, model and track the volume of topics over time, search for correlated topics or model them with a hierarchy. Most of these algorithms are intended for use with static corpora where the number of documents and the size of the vocabulary are known in advance. Moreover, almost all current topic modeling algorithms fix the number of topics as one of the input parameters and keep it fixed across the entire corpus. While this is appropriate for static corpora, it becomes a serious handicap when analyzing time-varying data sets where topics come and go as a matter of course. This is doubly true for online algorithms that may not have the option of revising earlier results in light of new data. To be sure, these algorithms will account for changing data one way or another, but without the ability to adapt to structural changes such as entirely new topics they may do so in counterintuitive ways.

  15. Preface: Special Topic on Interfacial and Confined Water (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Preface: Special Topic on Interfacial and Confined Water Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Preface: Special Topic on Interfacial and Confined Water This Special Topic on...

  16. Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Topic Index to the DOE Administrative...

  17. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  18. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  19. Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Western Interconnection on Electric Resource Planning and Priorities Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic B, Cooperation Among States in the Western ...

  20. Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Eastern Interconnection on Electric Resource Planning and Priorities Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic B, Cooperation Among States in the Eastern ...

  1. Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    A, Interconnection-Level Analysis and Planning Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic A, Interconnection-Level Analysis and Planning A description of the ...

  2. Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    the Texas Interconnection Interconnection-Wide Transmission Planning Initiative: Topic B, State Agency Input Regarding Electric Resource and Transmission Planning in the Texas ...

  3. Acoustics topic of upcoming Frontiers in Science series

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Acoustics topic of upcoming Frontiers in Science Acoustics topic of upcoming Frontiers in Science series Dipen Sinha will discuss acoustics and its applications, including how it is possible to use sound to solve problems in health, national security and for industry. July 24, 2014 Whenever an object vibrates, it creates sound, vibrations can 0:19 be detected. Besides just listening to it, we can detect it with various sensors. We 0:25 can tell what's inside a single container from the sound or

  4. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Summaries Rail Topic Group TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Rail Topic Group Rail Topic Group PDF icon May 17, 2007 PDF icon January 16, 2007 PDF icon...

  5. Webtrends Archives by Fiscal Year - Topic Landing Pages | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    topic landing pages by fiscal year. Topic Landing Pages FY10 (2.04 MB) Topic Landing Pages FY11 (2.02 MB) Topic Landing Pages FY12-FY13 (366.66 KB) More Documents & Publications ...

  6. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  7. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  8. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  9. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  10. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  11. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  12. Literature survey results: Topical report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Willson, W.G.; Ness, R.O.; Hendrikson, J.G.; Entzminger, J.A.; Jha, M.; Sinor, J.E.

    1988-01-01

    This report reviews mild gasification processes with respect to processing conditions and configurations. Special emphasis was placed on processes which could be commercialized within five years. Detailed market information was provided by J.E. Sinor concerning markets and economic considerations of the various processing steps. Processing areas studied include coal cleaning; mild gasification; and upgrading of the char, condensables, and hydrocarbon gases. Pros and cons in the different processing areas as well as ''gaps'' in pertinent data were identified and integrated into a detailed process development program. The report begins with a summary of the market assessment and an evaluation of the co-product. The impacts of feed materials and operating parameters--including coal rank, heating rate, pressure, agglomeration, temperature, and feed gas composition--on the co- products and processes were evaluated through a literature survey. Recommendations were made as to the preferred product specifications and operating parameters for a commercial plant. A literature review of mild gasification processes was conducted and evaluated with regard to product specification and operating parameters. Two candidate processes were chosen and discussed in detail with respect to scale-up feasibility. Recommendations were then made to process development needs to further consideration of the two processes. 129 refs., 33 figs., 16 tabs.

  13. Jonathan Link, Columbia KEK Topical Conference

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    -22, 2001 Jonathan Link, Columbia KEK Topical Conference Short Baseline Neutrino Oscillations and MiniBooNE Jonathan Link Columbia University The 5 th KEK Topical Conference - Frontiers in Flavor Physics November 20-22, 2001 November 20-22, 2001 Jonathan Link, Columbia KEK Topical Conference Outline 1. Background on Short Baseline Neutrino Oscillations * A little neutrino physics * The LSND oscillation result 2. About MiniBooNE 3. Status of MiniBooNE. Some of you may have noticed that I'll be

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  15. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  18. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  19. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  20. TEC/WG Tribal Topic Group

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TEC Tribal Topic Group Conference Call January 18, 2006 Group Chair: Jay Jones (DOE/OCRWM) Participating TEC Tribal Topic Group Members: Rob Burnside (CTUIR), Earl Easton (U.S. NRC), Kristen Ellis (DOE/CI), Ed Gonzales (ELG), Angela Hill (DOE/OCRWM), Marsha Keister (INL), Dan King (Oneida Nation), Corinne Macaluso (DOE/OCRWM), Titto Moses (CTUIR), Stanley Paytiamo (Pueblo of Acoma), Willie Preacher (Shoshone-Bannock Tribes), Cathy Reynolds (DOE/GC), Larry Stern (CVSA), Kevin Tafoya (Santa Clara

  1. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  2. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  3. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  4. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Key Documents Intermodal Subgroup |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Intermodal Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Key Documents Intermodal Subgroup Intermodal Subgroup Draft Work Plan (206.83 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Key Documents Radiation Monitoring Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Intermodal Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Rail Topic Group

  5. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Routing Meeting Summaries | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Meeting Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Routing Meeting Summaries MEETING SUMMARIES Atlanta TEC Meeting, Routing Topic Group Summary (101.72 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Meeting Summaries - January - February 2007 TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Meeting Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Rail Topic Group

  6. Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1999-01-01

    Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets.

  7. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  8. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  9. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  10. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  11. OSTIblog Articles in the Web Topic | OSTI, US Dept of Energy...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    reading emails, blogs, etc. It also includes training postdocs and Ph.D. students, plus an untold number of colleague to colleague... Related Topics: knowledge, Web, world wide web

  12. OSTIblog Articles in the wind collection Topic | OSTI, US Dept...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    That was one objective of the "Great Plains Wind Energy Transmission Development Project," completed in 2011, to "develop a wind energy forecast system, and demonstrate its ...

  13. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  14. OSTIblog Articles in the history of science Topic | OSTI, US...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    history of science Topic World Wide Information: The Other Side of the Coin by Kristin ... Of course, the world's information covers numerous topics other than science and ...

  15. Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment | Photosynthetic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment MIssouri Botanical Garden | Earthways Center - October 6th, 3:15 -...

  16. Public Perception of 13 Different Energy Topics analyzed in new...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and unfavorability energy topics such as transportation, renewable technology, nuclear, clean coal, and smart grid topics. Some of the highlights of the study are as...

  17. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Security | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TEC Working Group Topic Groups Security The Security Topic group is comprised of regulators, law enforcement officials, labor and industry representatives and other subject matter ...

  18. Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment | Photosynthetic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Tyson Living Learning Center tour November 18, 2014 - 4:00pm Tyson...

  19. Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment | Photosynthetic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Donald Danforth Plant Science Center April 9, 2015 - 3:15pm Donald...

  20. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Meeting Summaries | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Meeting Summaries MEETING SUMMARIES PDF icon Kansas City TEC Meeting, Rail Topic Group Summary - July 25, 2007 PDF icon Atlanta TEC...

  1. OSTIblog Articles in the greenhouse gases Topic | OSTI, US Dept...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    greenhouse gases Topic Carbon Sequestration - Helping to Save Our Beautiful World by Kathy ... Related Topics: carbon dioxide, carbon sequestration, climate change, greenhouse gases

  2. Hot topics in flavor physics at CDF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jun, Soon Yung; /Carnegie Mellon U.

    2005-01-01

    Hot topics in flavor physics at CDF are reviewed. Selected results of top, beauty, charm physics and exotic states in about 200 pb{sup -1} data collected by the CDF II detector in p{bar p} collisions at {radical}s = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron are presented.

  3. More About "Topic A" and "Topic B" Awards | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More About "Topic A" and "Topic B" Awards More About "Topic A" and "Topic B" Awards The awards pursuant to the Department of Energy's Interconnection-wide Transmission Planning Initiative cover two broad topics. "Topic A" covers Interconnection-Level Analysis and Planning. "Topic B" covers Cooperation Among States on Electric Resource Planning and Priorities, where the states will develop input to the Topic A analyses and perform other

  4. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  5. MHK technology developments include current

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    technology developments include current energy conversion (CEC) devices, for example, hydrokinetic turbines that extract power from water currents (riverine, tidal, and ocean) and wave energy conversion (WEC) devices that extract power from wave motion. Sandia's MHK research leverages decades of experience in engineering, design, and analysis of wind power technologies, and its vast research complex, including high- performance computing (HPC), advanced materials and coatings, nondestructive

  6. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  7. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  8. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  9. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  10. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  11. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  14. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  15. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  17. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  18. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  19. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  20. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Archives TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives The following Topic Groups are no longer active; however, related documents and notes for these archived Topic Groups are available through the following links: Communications Consolidated Grant Topic Group Training - Medical Training Protocols Route Identification Process Mechanics of Funding and Technical Assistance

  1. Innovative Topics for Advanced Biofuels | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Innovative Topics for Advanced Biofuels Innovative Topics for Advanced Biofuels PNNL report-out presentation at the CTAB webinar on innovative topics for advanced biofuels. ctab_webinar_innovative_topics.pdf (1.55 MB) More Documents & Publications Cross-cutting Technologies for Advanced Biofuels Conversion Technologies for Advanced Biofuels - Carbohydrates Production Conversion Technologies for Advanced Biofuels - Bio-Oil Upgrading

  2. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  3. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  4. Topic A Awardee: Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative Topic A Awardee: Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative The Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) was initiated by a coalition of regional Planning Authorities. These Planning Authorities are entities listed on the NERC compliance registry as Planning Authorities and represent the entire Eastern Interconnection. The EIPC was founded to be a broad-based,

  5. Renewable Energy Project Development: Advanced Concept Topics

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Concept Topics An Introduction to Risk, Tribal Roles, and Support Policies in the Renewable Energy Project Development Process Course Outline What we will cover...  About the DOE Office of Indian Energy Education Initiative  Concepts and Policies for Understanding Renewable Energy Projects on Tribal Lands - Risk and Uncertainty - Tribal Project Roles - Policies and Incentives  Additional Information and Resources 2 Introduction The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Indian Energy

  6. Renewable Energy Project Development: Advanced Process Topics

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Process Topics Understanding Energy Markets, Project Scale Decision Factors, Procurement Options, and the Role of the Project Team Course Outline What we will cover...  About the DOE Office of Indian Energy Education Initiative  Processes for Developing Renewable Energy Projects on Tribal Lands - Understanding the Energy Market and Project Scale - Project Scale and Ownership Options - Procurement Process - Project Team  Additional Information and Resources 2 Introduction The U.S.

  7. TEC/WG Tribal Topic Group

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Meeting September 22, 2005 - Pueblo, CO Group Chair: Jay Jones (DOE/OCRWM) Tribal Topic Group Members Present: Richard Arnold (Southern Paiute/CGTO), Vicki Best (Bechtel SAIC-YMP), Kevin Blackwell (DOT/FRA), Sandra Covi (UPRR), Barbara Durham (Timbisha Shoshone Tribe), Greg Fasano (Bechtel SAIC-YMP), Elizabeth Helvey (BSC), Angela Hill (DOE/OCRWM), Judith Holm (DOE/OCRWM), Marsha Keister (INL), Dan King (Oneida Nation), Gary Lanthrum (DOE/OCRWM), Corinne Macaluso (DOE/OCRWM), Calvin Meyers

  8. TEC/WG Tribal Topic Group

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Conference Call December 6, 2005 Group Chair: Jay Jones (DOE/OCRWM) Participating TEC Tribal Topic Group Members: Kevin Clarke (DOE/RL), Kristen Ellis (DOE/CI), Lisa Gover (NTEC), Dan King (Oneida Nation), Corinne Macaluso (DOE/OCRWM), Ellen Ott (DOE/GC), Ted Repasky (CTUIR), Cathy Reynolds (DOE/GC), Lisa Sattler (CSG-MW) Herman Shorty (Navajo Nation), Linda Sikkema (NCSL), Christopher Wells (SSEB) DOE support contractors also participated in this call. Action Items: Responsible Party Action to

  9. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Rail Topic

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Group | Department of Energy Summaries Rail Topic Group TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Rail Topic Group Rail Topic Group May 17, 2007 (10.98 KB) January 16, 2007 (14.41 KB) August 31, 2006 (16.39 KB) July 27, 2006 (19.28 KB) June 8, 2006 (15.79 KB) April 20, 2006 (19.91 KB) March 9, 2006 (19.65 KB) January 26, 2006 (20.86 KB) November 9, 2005 (24.38 KB) September 15, 2005 (32.13 KB) April 28, 2005 (19.16 KB) March 24, 2005 (28.33 KB) February 24, 2005 (32.77

  10. TEC Working Group Topic Groups | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topic Groups TEC Working Group Topic Groups TEC Topic Groups were formed in 1991 following an evaluation of the TEC program. Interested members, DOE and other federal agency staff meet to examine specific issues related to radioactive materials transportation. TEC Topic Groups enable a small number of participants to focus intensively on key issues at a level of detail that is unattainable during the TEC semiannual meetings due to time and group size constraints. Topic Groups meet individually

  11. OSTIblog Articles in the brookhaven national laboratory Topic | OSTI, US

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Dept of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information brookhaven national laboratory Topic OSTI Link in New York Times Blog by Nena Moss 23 Mar, 2009 in Products and Content A document made available by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) was recently linked in the New York Times City Room? blog article "Answers about New York's Weather, Part 3". It was included with the answer to "How strong can an Atlantic sea breeze get? Is there Long Island

  12. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  13. [Article 1 of 7: Motivates and Includes the Consumer]

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Series on the Seven Principal Characteristics of the Modern Grid [Article 1 of 7: Motivates and Includes the Consumer] In October 2007, Ken Silverstein (Energy Central) wrote an editorial, "Empowering Consumers" that hit a strong, kindred chord with the DOE/National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Modern Grid Strategy team. Through subsequent discussions with Ken and Bill Opalka, Editor- In-Chief, Topics Centers, we decided it would be informative to the industry if the Modern Grid

  14. Microsoft Word - Tribal Topic Group Summary March 06 final _3_.doc

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Formatted: Position: Horizontal: Right, Relative to: Margin, Vertical: 0", Relative to: Paragraph, Wrap Around Summary TEC Tribal Topic Group Meeting Tuesday, March 14, 2006 Washington, DC Participants: Jay Jones, Department of Energy (DOE)/Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), chaired the session. Other Topic Group members included Richard Arnold (Pahrump Paiute Tribe/Consolidated Group of Tribes and Organizations), James Baranski (NY State Emergency Management Office),

  15. Topics: Uncovering the physics of magnetic self-organization and links to

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    astrophysics - MST - UW Plasma Physics Uncovering the physics of magnetic self-organization and links to astrophysics UW Madison Madison Symmetric Torus Topics: Uncovering the physics of magnetic self-organization and links to astrophysics MST HomeGraduate Student InformationLinksTourControl and Auxiliary SystemsPhysics TopicsDeviceResearch MissionMST People mst logo CPLA Home Directory Publications Links Internal University of Wisconsin Physics Department Research funding includes support

  16. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  17. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  18. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  19. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  20. TEC/WG Tribal Topic Group

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    April 4, 2005 - Phoenix, AZ Group Chair: Jay Jones (DOE/OCRWM) Tribal Topic Group Members Present: Nancy Bennett (UNM/ATRI), Kevin Blackwell (DOT/FRA), Kristen Ellis (DOE/CI), Ed Gonzales (ELG), Elizabeth Helvey (BSC), Jeff Hepting (Pueblo of Acoma), Robert Holden (NCAI), Judith Holm (DOE/OCRWM), Dan King (Oneida Nation), Gary Lanthrum (DOE/OCRWM), Bob Lupton (DOE/ORD/IR), Corinne Macaluso (DOE/OCRWM), Ellen Ott (DOE/GC), Jennifer Patric (BAH), Stanley Paytiamo (Pueblo of Acoma), Wilda Portner

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  2. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  3. Addressing grid challenges and exploring opportunities, including DR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simms, Scott

    2011-10-25

    Wind is valuable to PNW power generation mix. BPA supports development of wind generation forecasting, utility operational protocols and business practices, Demand Response, and storage applications.

  4. Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on High Priority Topics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W

    2013-11-01

    Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations were developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 13 topics was developed for further analysis; this paper discusses the first five.

  5. Solar Energy Education. Renewable energy: a background text. [Includes glossary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    Some of the most common forms of renewable energy are presented in this textbook for students. The topics include solar energy, wind power hydroelectric power, biomass ocean thermal energy, and tidal and geothermal energy. The main emphasis of the text is on the sun and the solar energy that it yields. Discussions on the sun's composition and the relationship between the earth, sun and atmosphere are provided. Insolation, active and passive solar systems, and solar collectors are the subtopics included under solar energy. (BCS)

  6. OSTIblog Articles in the science information Topic | OSTI, US...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The search engine that helps you find science information from U.S. Department of Energy ... Science News and Wikipedia information on your topic(s) of interest and clusters results ...

  7. Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment | Photosynthetic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Events & Topics in Renewable Energy & the Environment Missouri Botanical Garden- EarthWays Center October 6, 2015 - 4:00pm How...

  8. Hot Topics Workshop - February 2015 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center - February 2015 Hot Topics Workshop - February 2015 Shots from our Hot Topics Workshop: Energy and the Environment for Secondary Science Teachers. Original Event Info found here

  9. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries | Department

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    of Energy Rail Conference Call Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries CONFERENCE CALL SUMMARIES Rail Topic Group Inspections Subgroup Planning Subgroup Tracking Subgroup TRAGIS Subgroup Radiation Monitoring Subgroup Intermodel Subgroup

  10. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  11. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  12. Smart Grid Investment Grant Topic Areas | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topic Areas Smart Grid Investment Grant Topic Areas A description of the topic areas for projects selected for award under the Smart Grid Investment Grant project of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Smart Grid Investment Grant Topic Areas (25.19 KB) More Documents & Publications Smart Grid Investment Grant Program - Progress Report (July 2012) SGIG and SGDP Highlights: Jumpstarting a Modern Grid (October 2014) Smart Grid R&D Multi-Year Program Plan (2010-2014) - September 2011

  13. OSTIblog Articles in the Strategic Plan Topic | OSTI, US Dept...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions. The... Related Topics: clean energy, nuclear security, Science Accelerator, Strategic Plan

  14. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Communications Meeting Summaries |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Archives Communications Meeting Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Communications Meeting Summaries Meeting Summaries Milwaukee TEC Meeting, Communications Topic Group Summary - July 1998 (58.3 KB) Inaugural Group Meeting - April 1998 (83.34 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Communications Conference Call Summaries TEC Meeting Summaries - January 1997 TEC Working Group Topic Groups Tribal Conference Call

  15. Webtrends Archives by Fiscal Year — Topic Landing Pages

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    From the EERE Web Statistics Archive: Corporate sites, Webtrends archives for the topic landing pages by fiscal year.

  16. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Protocols Meeting Summaries |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Protocols Meeting Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Protocols Meeting Summaries Meeting Summaries Philadelphia TEC Meeting, Protocols Topic Group Summary - July 1999 (110.63 KB) Jacksonville TEC Meeting, Protocols Topic Group Summary - January 1999 (102.04 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Protocols Conference Call Summaries TEC Meeting Summaries - July 1997 TEC Meeting Summaries - January 1997

  17. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Inspections

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Subgroup | Department of Energy Summaries Inspections Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Inspections Subgroup Inspections Subgroup April 6, 2006 (14.05 KB) February 23, 2006 Draft (20.29 KB) January 24, 2006 (27.44 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Planning Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Tracking Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference

  18. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Key Documents Radiation Monitoring

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Subgroup | Department of Energy Radiation Monitoring Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Key Documents Radiation Monitoring Subgroup Radiation Monitoring Subgroup Draft Work Plan - February 4, 2008 (114.02 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Meeting Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Conference Call Summaries Radiation Monitoring Subgroup TEC Working Group Topic Groups Rail Key Documents Intermodal Subgroup

  19. OSTIblog Articles in the 9 Topic | OSTI, US Dept of Energy Office of

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Scientific and Technical Information 9 Topic No topics or articles found

  20. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Protocols | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Protocols TEC Working Group Topic Groups Archives Protocols The Transportation Protocols Topic Group serves as an important vehicle for DOE senior managers to assess and incorporate stakeholder input into the protocols process. The Topic Group was formed to review a series of transportation protocols developed in response to a request for DOE to be more consistent in its approach to transportation.

  1. TEC Working Group Topic Groups Section 180(c) Meeting Summaries |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Section 180(c) Meeting Summaries TEC Working Group Topic Groups Section 180(c) Meeting Summaries Meeting Summaries Washington, DC TEC Meeting - 180(c) Group Summary - March 15, 2006 (29.33 KB) More Documents & Publications TEC Working Group Topic Groups Tribal Meeting Summaries TEC Meeting Summaries - July 2007 TEC Working Group Topic Groups Tribal Conference Call Summaries

  2. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  3. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  4. Search tool plug-in: imploements latent topic feedback

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-09-23

    IRIS is a search tool plug-in that is used to implement latent topic feedback for enhancing text navigation. It accepts a list of returned documents from an information retrieval wywtem that is generated from keyword search queries. Data is pulled directly from a topic information database and processed by IRIS to determine the most prominent and relevant topics, along with topic-ngrams, associated with the list of returned documents. User selected topics are then used tomore » expand the query and presumabley refine the search results.« less

  5. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  6. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  7. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  8. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  9. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  10. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.