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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

3

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

4

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting for the Tennessee and Cumberland River Watersheds Using the NCEP Regional Spectral Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A limited-area spectral model—the Regional Spectral Model—developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is used to prepare daily quantitative precipitation forecasts out to 48 h for the Tennessee and Cumberland River basins in ...

Qi Mao; Stephen F. Mueller; Hann-Ming Henry Juang

2000-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Statistical Extension of the National Hurricane Center 5-Day Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks and wind speeds are extended in time to produce spatially disaggregated probability forecasts for landfall location and intensity, using a weighted bootstrap procedure. ...

Daniel S. Wilks; Charles J. Neumann; Miles B. Lawrence

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, is composed of several operational forecasting units, all national in scope. It includes the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS), the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit (NAWAU),...

Frederick P. Ostby

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Forecasting the Anomalous Discharge of the Caroní River, Venezuela  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops methods for the extended-range forecasting of the February–March minimum of water discharge of the Caroní River in eastern Venezuela, a watershed providing more than 70% of the hydroelectric power for the country. The ...

Stefan Hastenrath; Lawrence Greischar; Esperanza Colón; Alfredo Gil

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

13

River flow forecasting with constructive neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...

Mêuser Valença; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valença

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

16

Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Early results are presented of an experimental program in Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting at the National Meteorological Center. The primary objective of this program is to assess the feasibility of extending operational numerical weather ...

M. Steven Tracton; Kingtse Mo; Wilbur Chen; Eugenia Kalnay; Robert Kistler; Glenn White

1989-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise ...

Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa

1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

The Developmental Testbed Center and its Winter Forecasting Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) was formed to promote exchanges between the development and operational communities in the field of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The WRF DTC serves to accelerate ...

Lígia Bernardet; Steve Koch; Edward Szoke; Andrew Loughe; Jennifer Luppens Mahoney; Louisa Nance; Meral Demirtas; Tressa Fowler; Robert Gall; Hui-Ya Chuang; Matthew Pyle

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability forecast product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for U.S. land-threatening and landfalling ...

Michael E. Splitt; Jaclyn A. Shafer; Steven M. Lazarus; William P. Roeder

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da (INPE) #12;Talk Outline CPTEC/INPE Operational Forecast Systems (time scales) Modeling Forecast-Brazil Space Sector Workshop, São José dos Campos 26 - 27 August. 2010 CPTEC: Forecasting Modeling Scales Time

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) were faced with many challenges during the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak. Operational numerical forecast models valid during the outbreak gave inaccurate, inconsistent, and/or ambiguous guidance to ...

Roger Edwards; Stephen F. Corfidi; Richard L. Thompson; Jeffry S. Evans; Jeffrey P. Craven; Jonathan P. Racy; Daniel W. McCarthy; Michael D. Vescio

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

23

A 1–10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 2003–07  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a fully automated scheme that has provided calibrated 1–10-day ensemble river discharge forecasts and predictions of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational ...

Thomas M. Hopson; Peter J. Webster

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan D.R. Archer a of Pakistan. Seasonal forecasts of spring and summer flow provide the opportunity for planning and would of Control between In- dia and Pakistan. The Jhelum then flows through the plains of the Punjab, where

Fowler, Hayley

25

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

Genton, Marc G.

27

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclone intensity forecast methods used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II: statistical – dynamical forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The development and performance of a statistical- dynamical tropical cyclone intensity forecast model, which was developed for the United States of America’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is described. This model, called the Southern Hemisphere Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (SH STIPS), mirrors similar capabilities created for use in the western North Pacific and North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basins. The model is created by fitting an optimal combination of factors related to climatology and persistence, intensification potential, vertical wind shear, dynamic size/intensity forecasts and atmospheric stability. All of these factors except the climatology and persistence information are derived from global forecast model analyses and forecasts. In July 2005 the SH STIPS model began a real-time evaluation period. The forecasts from the SH STIPS model have outperformed the combined climatology and persistence based forecast and thus are skillful in independent testing since that time. Since October 2006, SH STIPS has been the primary member in an operational consensus forecast of tropical cyclone intensity change provided to the JTWC. Documentation

John A. Knaff; Charles R. Sampson

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

SAVANNAH RIVER TECHNOLOGY CENTER MONTHLY REPORT AUGUST 1992  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

'This monthly report summarizes Programs and Accomplishments of the Savannah River Technology Center in support of activities at the Savannah River Site. The following categories are addressed: Reactor, Tritium, Separations, Environmental, Waste Management, General, and Items of Interest.'

Ferrell, J.M.

1999-06-21T23:59:59.000Z

29

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

30

River Flow Forecasting for Reservoir management through Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and nonhydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...

Meuser Valenca; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valenca

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

A Multistep Automatic Calibration Scheme for River Forecasting Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Operational flood forecasting models vary in complexity, but nearly all have parameters for which values must be estimated. The traditional and widespread manual calibration approach requires considerable training and experience and is typically ...

Terri S. Hogue; Soroosh Sorooshian; Hoshin Gupta; Andrea Holz; Dean Braatz

2000-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Savannah River Technology Center monthly report, January 1994  

SciTech Connect

This is the monthly progress report for the Savannah River Technology Center, which covers the following areas of interest, Tritium, Separation processes, Environmental Issues, and Waste Management.

Not Available

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

The Regional Analysis and Forecast System of the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The three components of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) are described. This system was implemented in March 1985 to supplement guidance from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM), ...

James E. Hoke; Norman A. Phillips; Geoffrey J. Dimego; James J. Tuccillo; Joseph G. Sela

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Assessment of the Aviation Weather Center Global Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems*  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the precision of location and top height of mesoscale convective systems, as forecast by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The examination was motivated by the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) on the space ...

Baruch Ziv; Yoav Yair; Karin Presman; Martin Füllekrug

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

An Analysis of the Accuracy of 120-h Predictions by the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An assessment was made of the 120-h predictions by the medium range forecast (MRF) run of the National Meteorological Center's (NMC's) global spectral model. The ability of the model to forecast surface cyclones and anticyclones was evaluated and ...

Mary A. Bedrick; Anthony J. Cristaldi III; Stephen J. Colucci; Daniel S. Wilks

1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Savannah River Technology Center. Monthly report  

SciTech Connect

This is a monthly progress report from the Savannah River Laboratory for the month of January 1993. It has sections with work in the areas of reactor safety, tritium processes and absorption, separations programs and wastes, environmental concerns and responses, waste management practices, and general concerns.

Not Available

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Savannah River Technology Center monthly report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This is a monthly report published by Westinghouse Savannah River Company. Topics discussed in this progress report are: Terrazzo reservoir, Replacement Tritium Facility Final Safety Analysis Report, tritium processing and disposal, separation processes, environmental effects and future impacts, laboratory performance evaluation, groundwater characterization, mixed waste management facility, Raman Spectroscopy, waste processing, Defense Waste Processing Facility, mercury recycling, off-gas components testing, incineration facility blowdown solidification, and weld residual stress minimization study.

Ferrell, J.M.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Savannah River Technology Center monthly report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document contains many small reports from personnel at the technology center under the umbrella topics of reactors, tritium, separations, environment, waste management, and general engineering. Progress and accomplishments are given.

Not Available

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Savannah River Technology Center Quarterly Report - July, Aug., and Sept., 1997  

SciTech Connect

This monthly report summarizes programs and accomplishments of the Savannah River Technology Center in support of activities at the Savannah River Site.

Ferrell, J.M.

1998-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Call center demand forecasting : improving sales calls prediction accuracy through the combination of statistical methods and judgmental forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Call centers are important for developing and maintaining healthy relationships with customers. At Dell, call centers are also at the core of the company's renowned direct model. For sales call centers in particular, the ...

Boulin, Juan Manuel

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation ...

Amir Givati; Barry Lynn; Yubao Liu; Alon Rimmer

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Savannah River Technology Center. Quarterly report, July 1, 1996--September 30, 1996  

SciTech Connect

This report provides information and progress from the Savannah River Technology Center. Topics include tritium activities, separations, environmental, and waste management activities.

Ferrell, J.M.

1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...

Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Forecasting Annual Discharge of River Murray, Australia, from a Geophysical Model of ENSO  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Annual discharge (Q) in the largest river system in Australia, the River Murray (including the extensive tributary network of the Darling River), is often inversely related to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial ...

H. J. Simpson; M. A. Cane; S. K. Lin; S. E. Zebiak; A. L. Herczeg

1993-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

An Evaluation and Intercomparison of Global Analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to help establish a global climate record data sets of global analyses from the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been comprehensively evaluated.

Kevin E. Trenberth; Jerry G. Olson

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

A Comparison of Divergent Winds from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Global Analyses for 1980–1986  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A comparison is made of the divergent wind analyses of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and those of the ECMWF/WMO dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using a reliability criterion based on ...

Steven J. Lambert

1989-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1, W. Crow2, J. Schaake3  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, US Department of Agriculture 3 National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1. Introduction This study focuses on evaluation of hydrologic remote sensing

Pan, Ming

50

Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Challenges of Multibasin Tropical Cyclone Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a specialized component of the Naval Oceanography Command Center, Guam, is the busiest tropical cyclone warning center in the world. Its area of responsibility encompasses four broad oceanic areas of ...

Charles P. Guard; Lester E. Carr; Frank H. Wells; Richard A. Jeffries; Nicholas D. Gural; Dianne K. Edson

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Long-Range Forecasting of the Nile River Flows Using Climatic Forcing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Correlation analysis is used to determine the linear relationship between the Nile River flows and leading climatic indicators, such as SST and precipitation, in an effort to establish a basis for quantitative long-term streamflow prediction. The ...

Ahmed K. Eldaw; Jose D. Salas; Luis A. Garcia

2003-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Climate and Salmon Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The Role and Usability of Seasonal Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Pacific Northwest is dependent on the vast and complex Columbia River system for power production, irrigation, navigation, flood control, recreation, municipal and industrial water supplies, and fish and wildlife habitat. In recent years ...

Roger S. Pulwarty; Kelly T. Redmond

1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Savannah River Technology Center monthly report, September 1992  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This is a monthly progress report from the Savannah River Laboratory for the month of September, 1992. It has sections dealing with work in the broad areas of reactor safety, tritium processes and absorption, separations programs and wastes, environmental concerns and responses, waste management practices, and general concerns.

Ferrell, J.M. [comp.

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Application of a Medium-Range Global Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003–07. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range ...

Nathalie Voisin; Florian Pappenberger; Dennis P. Lettenmaier; Roberto Buizza; John C. Schaake

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Deep River Center, Connecticut: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Center, Connecticut: Energy Resources Center, Connecticut: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia Coordinates 41.3729131°, -72.4435674° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":41.3729131,"lon":-72.4435674,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

59

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble modelSutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptuala Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty

Li, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Design and installation of continuous flow and water quality monitoring stations to improve water quality forecasting in the lower San Joaquin River  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

improve water quality forecasting in the lower San Joaquinimprove water quality forecasting in the lower San Joaquinan important real-time forecasting station for water quality

Quinn, Nigel W.T.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

62

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

67

Construction of the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory Conference Center. Environmental Assessment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This Environmental Assessment (EA) reviews the environmental consequences associated with the proposed action of granting a site use permit to construct and operate a conference center on an approximately 70-acre tract of land on the Savannah River Site (SRS). While the proposed action requires an administrative decision by DOE, this EA reviews the linked action of physically constructing and operating a conference center. The SRS is a DOE-owned nuclear production facility encompassing approximately 200,000 acres in southwestern South Carolina. The proposed conference center would have an area of approximately 4,000 square feet, and would infrequently accommodate as many as 150 people, with the average being about 20 people per day. In addition to the No-Action alternative, under which the Research Foundation would not require the 70-acre tract of SRS land for a conference center, this EA considers site preservation. Under Site Preservation only minimal activities necessary to the SRS mission would occur, thereby establishing the lower limits of environmental consequences. A review conducted under the SRS permitting process identified no other forms of possible site development. Similarly, SRS areas identified in the Nuclear Complex Reconfiguration Site Proposal (DOE, 199la) do not include the conference center site area in proposed weapons complex reconfiguration activities. As a consequence, this EA does not consider other forms of possible site development as alternatives. The potential environmental consequences associated with the action of constructing and operating a conference center include impacts to cultural resources and impacts from construction activities, primarily related to land clearing (5 to 10 acres) and providing access to the site.

Not Available

1993-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

The Role of Multimodel Climate Forecasts in Improving Water and Energy Management over the Tana River Basin, Kenya  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Masinga Reservoir located in the upper Tana River Basin, Kenya, is extremely important in supplying country’s hydropower and protecting downstream ecology. The Dam serves as the primary storage reservoir, controlling streamflow through a ...

C. Oludhe; Sankarasubramanian Arumugam; Tushar Sinha; Naresh Devineni; Upmanu Lall

69

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

70

Intensive archaeological survey of the proposed Savannah River Ecology Laboratory Conference Center and Educational Facility, Savannah River Site, Aiken County, South Carolina  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Documented in this report are the methods and results of an intensive archaeological survey for the proposed University of Georgia Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) Conference Center and Educational Facility on the DOE Savannah River Site (SRS). Archaeological investigations conducted by the Savannah River Archaeological Research Program (SRARP) on the 70-acre project area and associated rights-of-way consisted of subsurface testing at two previously recorded sites and the discovery of one previously unrecorded site. The results show that 2 sites contain archaeological remains that may yield significant information about human occupations in the Aiken Plateau and are therefore considered eligible for nomination to the National Register of Historic Places. Adverse impacts to these sites can be mitigated through avoidance.

Stephenson, K.; Crass, D.C.; Sassaman, K.E.

1993-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

78

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Reconnaissance survey of site 7 of the proposed Three Rivers Regional Landfill and Technology Center, Savannah River Site, Aiken County, South Carolina  

SciTech Connect

This report documents the archaeological investigation of Site 7 of the proposed Three Rivers Regional Landfill and Technology Center in Aiken County on the United States Department of Energy`s Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken and Barnwell Counties, South Carolina. Pedestrian and subsurface survey techniques were used to investigate the 1,403-acre project area. Survey resulted in the discovery of 23 previously unrecorded sites and 11 occurrences; six previously recorded sites were also investigated. These sites consist of six prehistoric sites, nine historic sites, and 14 sites with both prehistoric and historic components. Sites locations and project area boundaries are provided on a facsimile of a USGS 7.5 topographic map. The prehistoric components consist of very small, low-density lithic and ceramic scatters; most contain less than 10 artifacts. Six of the prehistoric components are of unknown cultural affiliation, the remaining prehistoric sites were occupied predominately in the Woodland period. The historic sites are dominated by postbellum/modem home places of tenant and yeoman farmers but four historic sites were locations of antebellum house sites (38AK136, 38AK613, 38AK660, and 38AK674). The historic sites also include an African-American school (38AK677).

Cabak, M.A.; Beck, M.L.; Gillam, C.; Sassaman, K.E.

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Climate Index Weighting Schemes for NWS ESP-Based Seasonal Volume Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study compares methods to incorporate climate information into the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). Three small-to-medium river subbasins following roughly along a longitude in the Colorado River basin with different ...

Kevin Werner; David Brandon; Martyn Clark; Subhrendu Gangopadhyay

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

The Skill of Precipitation and Surface Temperature Forecasts by the NMC Global Model during DERF II  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study assesses the skill of forecasts of precipitation and surface temperature by the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) global model in the 108 consecutive 30-day forecasts [known as Dynamical Extended Range Forecast II (DERF II)] that ...

Glenn H. White; Eugenia Kalnay; Rodney Gardner; Masao Kanamitsu

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Tornado Pathlength Forecasts from 2010 to 2011 Using Ensemble Updraft Helicity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Examining forecasts from the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, recent research diagnosed a strong ...

Adam J. Clark; Jidong Gao; Patrick T. Marsh; Travis Smith; John S. Kain; James Correia Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Evaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience ...

David A. Olson; Norman W. Junker; Brian Korty

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Towards accurate and reliable forecasts of Australian seasonal rainfall by calibrating and merging multiple coupled GCMs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The majority of international climate modeling centers now produce seasonal rainfall forecasts from coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Seasonal rainfall forecasting is highly challenging, and GCM forecast accuracy is still poor for many ...

Andrew Schepen; Q. J. Wang

86

Assessment of Western North Pacific 96- and 120-h Track Guidance and Present Forecastability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has only four dynamical models for guidance in making 96- and 120-h track forecasts, an opportunity exists for improving the consensus forecast by the proper removal of a likely erroneous forecast ...

Kathryn A. Payne; Russell L. Elsberry; Mark A. Boothe

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

THE GALACTIC CENTER WEATHER FORECAST  

SciTech Connect

In accretion-based models for Sgr A*, the X-ray, infrared, and millimeter emission arise in a hot, geometrically thick accretion flow close to the black hole. The spectrum and size of the source depend on the black hole mass accretion rate M-dot . Since Gillessen et al. have recently discovered a cloud moving toward Sgr A* that will arrive in summer 2013, M-dot may increase from its present value M-dot{sub 0}. We therefore reconsider the 'best-bet' accretion model of Moscibrodzka et al., which is based on a general relativistic MHD flow model and fully relativistic radiative transfer, for a range of M-dot . We find that for modest increases in M-dot the characteristic ring of emission due to the photon orbit becomes brighter, more extended, and easier to detect by the planned Event Horizon Telescope submillimeter Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiment. If M-dot {approx}>8 M-dot{sub 0}, this 'silhouette' of the black hole will be hidden beneath the synchrotron photosphere at 230 GHz, and for M-dot {approx}>16 M-dot{sub 0} the silhouette is hidden at 345 GHz. We also find that for M-dot > 2 M-dot{sub 0} the near-horizon accretion flow becomes a persistent X-ray and mid-infrared source, and in the near-infrared Sgr A* will acquire a persistent component that is brighter than currently observed flares.

Moscibrodzka, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nevada, 4505 South Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154 (United States); Shiokawa, H.; Gammie, C. F. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Dolence, J. C., E-mail: monikam@physics.unlv.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

2012-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

88

The legacy of Cf-252 operations at Savannah River Technology Center: Continuous releases of radioiodine to the atmosphere  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The iodine isotopes I-132, 1-133, I-134, and I-135, which have half-lives ranging from 53 minutes to 21 hours, are measured in the atmospheric effluent from the Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. SRS is operated by Westinghouse Savannah River Company for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The isotopes` release rates range from 10 to 300 microcuries per week compared to the rate. The resulting annual dose from all iodine isotopes is minor; it comprises 0.01 percent of the total offsite dose due to atmospheric releases from SRS in 1990. Circumstantial evidence indicates the radioiodine originates from traces of unencapsulated Cf-252. The determination that spontaneous fission of Cf-252 is the source of the radioiodine has several ramifications. Radioactive fission-product isotopes of the noble gas elements krypton and xenon must also be released. Noble gases are more volatile and mobile than iodine. Also, the released iodine isotopes decay to xenon isotopes. The noble gases decay to non-gaseous elements that are transported along with radioiodine to the terrestrial environment by deposition from the SRTC plume. Only Sr-89 is believed to accumulate sufficiently in the environment to approach detectable levels. Given similar conditions in earlier years, releases of short-lived radioiodine have occurred undetected in routine monitoring since the early 1970s. Release rates 20 years ago would have been 200 times greater than current release rates. This report documents preliminary experiments conducted by SRTC and Environmental Monitoring Section (EMS) scientists. The release process and the environmental impact of fission products from Cf-252 should be thoroughly researched.

Kantelo, M.V.; Crandall, B.S.

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

89

The legacy of Cf-252 operations at Savannah River Technology Center: Continuous releases of radioiodine to the atmosphere  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The iodine isotopes I-132, 1-133, I-134, and I-135, which have half-lives ranging from 53 minutes to 21 hours, are measured in the atmospheric effluent from the Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. SRS is operated by Westinghouse Savannah River Company for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The isotopes' release rates range from 10 to 300 microcuries per week compared to the rate. The resulting annual dose from all iodine isotopes is minor; it comprises 0.01 percent of the total offsite dose due to atmospheric releases from SRS in 1990. Circumstantial evidence indicates the radioiodine originates from traces of unencapsulated Cf-252. The determination that spontaneous fission of Cf-252 is the source of the radioiodine has several ramifications. Radioactive fission-product isotopes of the noble gas elements krypton and xenon must also be released. Noble gases are more volatile and mobile than iodine. Also, the released iodine isotopes decay to xenon isotopes. The noble gases decay to non-gaseous elements that are transported along with radioiodine to the terrestrial environment by deposition from the SRTC plume. Only Sr-89 is believed to accumulate sufficiently in the environment to approach detectable levels. Given similar conditions in earlier years, releases of short-lived radioiodine have occurred undetected in routine monitoring since the early 1970s. Release rates 20 years ago would have been 200 times greater than current release rates. This report documents preliminary experiments conducted by SRTC and Environmental Monitoring Section (EMS) scientists. The release process and the environmental impact of fission products from Cf-252 should be thoroughly researched.

Kantelo, M.V.; Crandall, B.S.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...

Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-François Caron; Christian Pagé

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Forecasting the 12–14 March 1993 Superstorm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful ...

Louis W. Uccellini; Paul J. Kocin; Russell S. Schneider; Paul M. Stokols; Russell A. Dorr

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Short-Term Forecast Validation of Six Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The short-term forecast accuracy of six different forecast models over the western United States is described for January, February, and March 1996. Four of the models are operational products from the National Centers for Environmental ...

Bryan G. White; Jan Paegle; W. James Steenburgh; John D. Horel; Robert T. Swanson; Louis K. Cook; Daryl J. Onton; John G. Miles

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...

Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...

Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

98

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

99

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

100

Spectral Budget Analysis of the Short-Range Forecast Error of the NMC Medium-Range Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The budget of the systematic component of the short-range forecast error in the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model (NMC MRF) is examined. The budget is computed for the spectral coefficients and the variances of ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Suranjana Saha

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Changes to the 1995 NCEP Operational Medium-Range Forecast Model Analysis–Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent changes in the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) global analysis–forecast system are described. The most significant analysis change was the direct use of satellite-...

Peter Caplan; John Derber; William Gemmill; Song-You Hong; Hua-Lu Pan; David Parrish

1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

KETUSKY, EDWARD

2005-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

104

Savannah River Site sample and analysis plan for Clemson Technical Center waste  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this sampling and analysis plan is to determine the chemical, physical and radiological properties of the SRS radioactive Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) liquid waste stream, to verify that it conforms to Waste Acceptance Criteria of the Department of Energy (DOE) East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) Incineration Facility. Waste being sent to the ETTP TSCA Incinerator for treatment must be sufficiently characterized to ensure that the waste stream meets the waste acceptance criteria to ensure proper handling, classification, and processing of incoming waste to meet the Waste Storage and Treatment Facility`s Operating Permits. This sampling and analysis plan is limited to WSRC container(s) of homogeneous or multiphasic radioactive PCB contaminated liquids generated in association with a treatability study at Clemson Technical Center (CTC) and currently stored at the WSRC Solid Waste Division Mixed Waste Storage Facility (MWSF).

Hagstrom, T.

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Improvements in Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with the Eta Regional Model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction: The 48-km Upgrade  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 9 June 1993, the eta coordinate regional model has been run twice daily at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, previously the National Meteorological Center) as the NCEP's “early” operational model. Its performance is ...

Fedor Mesinger

1996-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

107

Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts has a clear benefit ...

Warren J. Tennant; Zoltan Toth; Kevin J. Rae

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

109

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region Through Values at Load Center (Tracy Substation) Reg & Res CVP Maximum Capability CVP Energy Generation Peak Project Use Demand...

110

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

111

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1 Adrian E. Raftery, Fadoua forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper of PDFs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal

Washington at Seattle, University of

112

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...

Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

A Bayesian Framework for Probabilistic Seasonal Drought Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal drought forecasting is presented within a multivariate probabilistic framework. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) is used to characterize hydrologic droughts with different severities across the Gunnison River Basin in the Upper ...

Shahrbanou Madadgar; Hamid Moradkhani

116

Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The breeding method has been used to generate perturbations for ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly known as the National Meteorological Center) since December 1992. At that time a single breeding ...

Zoltan Toth; Eugenia Kalnay

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEP’s Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006–August 2010. Verification is conducted for 10–20 hydrologic basins in ...

James D. Brown; Dong-Jun Seo; Jun Du

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

119

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

120

Eta Model Precipitation Forecasts for a Period Including Tropical Storm Allison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A step-mountain (eta) coordinate limited-area model is being developed at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) to improve forecasts of severe weather and other mesoscale phenomena. Precipitation forecasts are reviewed for the 20-day period 16 ...

Fedor Mesinger; Thomas L. Black; David W. Plummer; John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Southern Hemisphere Medium-Range Forecast Skill and Predictability: A Comparison of Two Operational Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of two global numerical weather prediction models, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) medium-range forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model, has been ...

James A. Renwick; Craig S. Thompson

2001-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Several tropical cyclone forecasting centers issue uncertainty information with regard to their official track forecasts, generally using the climatological distribution of position error. However, such methods are not able to convey information ...

Thierry Dupont; Matthieu Plu; Philippe Caroff; Ghislain Faure

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Consistent Tropical Cyclone Wind and Wave Forecasts for the U.S. Navy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new algorithm to generate wave heights consistent with tropical cyclone official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been developed. The process involves generating synthetic observations from the forecast track and the ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Hendrik L. Tolman

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Tropical-Cyclone Forecasting: A Worldwide Summary of Techniques and Verification Statistics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questionnaire replies from forecasters in 16 tropical-cyclone warming centers are summarized to provide an overview of the current state of the science in tropical-cyclone analysis and forecasting. Information is tabulated on the data sources and ...

John L. McBride; Greg J. Holland

1987-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Comparative Verification of Guidance and Local Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Calibration Analyses  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A comparative verification is reported of 2631 matched pairs of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) prepared daily from 1 October 1992 to 31 October 1996 by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and the Weather Service Forecast ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Microsoft Word - 122006 - Mirant Potomac River LLC - Monthly...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2.0 Daily Predictive Modeling On June 17, 2006, Mirant began performing daily forecast modeling to calculate maximum sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) impacts from the Potomac River...

127

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

130

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

131

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Three Years of Operational Prediction of Forecast Skill at NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In real time since 1990, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) has been running a system to predict the forecast skill of the medium-range forecasts produced by the NMC global spectral model. The predictors used are the agreement of an ...

Richard L. Wobus; Eugenia Kalnay

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

A Comprehensive Assessment of CFS Seasonal Forecasts over the Tropics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 15-member ensemble hindcasts performed with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS) for the period 1981–2005, as well as real-time forecasts for the period 2006–09, are assessed for seasonal prediction ...

K. P. Sooraj; H. Annamalai; Arun Kumar; Hui Wang

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

On Modeling and Forecasting Time Series of Smooth Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

/fertility rate curves (Hyndman and Ullah, 2007; Erbas et al., 2007). Other examples include electricity system the rates are unobservable; hence one needs to forecast future rate profiles based on historical call of telephone customer service centers, where forecasts of daily call arrival rate profiles are needed

Shen, Haipeng

135

Results of 2001 Groundwater Sampling in Support of Conditional No Longer Contained-In Determination for the Snake River Plain Aquifer in the Vicinity of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center  

SciTech Connect

This report summarizes the results of sampling five groundwater monitoring wells in the vicinity of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory in 2001. Information on general sampling practices, quality assurance practices, parameter concentrations, representativeness of sampling results, and cumulative cancer risk are presented. The information is provided to support a conditional No Longer Contained-In Determination for the Snake River Plain Aquifer in the vicinity of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center.

Meachum, T.R.

2002-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

136

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

138

Land–Atmosphere Coupling Strength in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The operational coupled land–atmosphere forecast model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is evaluated for the strength and characteristics of its coupling in the water cycle between land and atmosphere. Following the ...

Li Zhang; Paul A. Dirmeyer; Jiangfeng Wei; Zhichang Guo; Cheng-Hsuan Lu

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Tropical Cyclone Observation and Forecasting with and without Aircraft Reconnaissance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The contributions of aircraft reconnaissance to the accuracy of tropical cyclone center positioning, motion, and intensity determinations are examined, along with their impact on the accuracy of track and intensity forecasting. The analyses ...

Joel D. Martin; William M. Gray

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Targeted Observations to Improve Operational Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Guidance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1997, the Tropical Prediction Center and the Hurricane Research Division have conducted operational synoptic surveillance missions with a Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve numerical forecast guidance. Due to limited aircraft ...

Sim D. Aberson

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

A Preliminary Investigation of Temperature Errors in Operational Forecasting Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temperatures taken from model output (FOUS reports) routinely transmitted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are tabulated to determine errors during three months in the summer of 1996. These short-term model forecasts are ...

Frank P. Colby Jr.

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

An Hourly Assimilation–Forecast Cycle: The RUC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), an operational regional analysis–forecast system among the suite of models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is distinctive in two primary aspects: its hourly assimilation cycle and its use ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Dezsö Dévényi; Stephen S. Weygandt; Kevin J. Brundage; John M. Brown; Georg A. Grell; Dongsoo Kim; Barry E. Schwartz; Tatiana G. Smirnova; Tracy Lorraine Smith; Geoffrey S. Manikin

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Forecast Skill of the South American Monsoon System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation. This study uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast ...

Charles Jones; Leila M. V. Carvalho; Brant Liebmann

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical way of postprocessing forecast ensembles to create predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. It represents the predictive PDF as a weighted average of PDFs centered on ...

J. Mc Lean Sloughter; Adrian E. Raftery; Tilmann Gneiting; Chris Fraley

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Summer-Season Forecast Experiments with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To examine the impact from land model upgrades and different land initializations on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Climate Forecast System (CFS), extensive T126 CFS experiments are carried out for 25 summers with 10 ...

Rongqian Yang; Kenneth Mitchell; Jesse Meng; Michael Ek

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Prediction Skill and Bias of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction were examined. The CFSv2 was ...

Yan Xue; Mingyue Chen; Arun Kumar; Zeng-Zhen Hu; Wanqiu Wang

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the results of an examination of precipitation forecasts for 1–30-day leads from global models run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ...

John E. Janowiak; Peter Bauer; Wanqiu Wang; Phillip A. Arkin; Jon Gottschalck

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Accuracy of RUC-1 and RUC-2 Wind and Aircraft Trajectory Forecasts by Comparison with ACARS Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As part of an investigation into terminal airspace productivity sponsored by the NASA Ames Research Center, a study was performed at the Forecast Systems Laboratory to investigate sources of wind forecast error and to assess differences in wind ...

Barry E. Schwartz; Stanley G. Benjamin; Steven M. Green; Matthew R. Jardin

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER NATIONAL LABORATORY, CENTER FOR HYDROGEN RESEARCH, AND THE HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH LABORATORY  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is a U.S. Department of Energy research and development laboratory located at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. SRNL has over 50 years of experience in developing and applying hydrogen technology, both through its national defense activities as well as through its recent activities with the DOE Hydrogen Programs. The hydrogen technical staff at SRNL comprises over 90 scientists, engineers and technologists, and it is believed to be the largest such staff in the U.S. SRNL has ongoing R&D initiatives in a variety of hydrogen storage areas, including metal hydrides, complex hydrides, chemical hydrides and carbon nanotubes. SRNL has over 25 years of experience in metal hydrides and solid-state hydrogen storage research, development and demonstration. As part of its defense mission at SRS, SRNL developed, designed, demonstrated and provides ongoing technical support for the largest hydrogen processing facility in the world based on the integrated use of metal hydrides for hydrogen storage, separation and compression. The SRNL has been active in teaming with academic and industrial partners to advance hydrogen technology. A primary focus of SRNL's R&D has been hydrogen storage using metal and complex hydrides. SRNL and its Hydrogen Technology Laboratory have been very successful in leveraging their defense infrastructure, capabilities and investments to help solve this country's energy problems. Many of SRNL's programs support dual-use applications. SRNL has participated in projects to convert public transit and utility vehicles for operation on hydrogen fuel. Two major projects include the H2Fuel Bus and an Industrial Fuel Cell Vehicle (IFCV) also known as the GATOR{trademark}. Both of these projects were funded by DOE and cost shared by industry. These are discussed further in Section 3.0, Demonstration Projects. In addition to metal hydrides technology, the SRNL Hydrogen group has done extensive R&D in other hydrogen technologies, including membrane filters for H2 separation, doped carbon nanotubes, storage vessel design and optimization, chemical hydrides, hydrogen compressors and hydrogen production using nuclear energy. Several of these are discussed further in Section 2, SRNL Hydrogen Research and Development.

Danko, E

2007-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

152

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

155

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Diagnostic Verification of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Outlooks, 1995–98  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the Climate Prediction Center’s long-lead forecasts for the period 1995–98 is assessed through a diagnostic verification, which involves examination of the full joint frequency distributions of the forecasts and the ...

D. S. Wilks

2000-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Preliminary Experiments Using GALE Observations at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses and forecasts for the first 2 weeks of the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) are described. These fields were produced using the National Meteorological Center (NMC) Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS). Two sets of ...

Eric Rogers; Geoffrey J. DiMego; Joseph P. Gerrity; Ralph A. Petersen; Brian D. Schmidt; Deirdre M. Kann

1990-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors have developed a new extended-range flood forecasting system for large river basins that uses satellite data and statistically rendered probabilistic weather and climate predictions to initialize basin-scale hydrological models. The ...

Peter J. Webster; Jun Jian; Thomas M. Hopson; Carlos D. Hoyos; Paula A. Agudelo; Hai-Ru Chang; Judith A. Curry; Robert L. Grossman; Timothy N. Palmer; A. R. Subbiah

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Soil Moisture, Snow, and Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, for a number of U.S. river basins, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for ...

Sarith Mahanama; Ben Livneh; Randal Koster; Dennis Lettenmaier; Rolf Reichle

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

The NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensemble Product: Expanding Benefits of Inter-Agency Probabilistic Forecasts to the Oceanic Environment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) have joined forces to establish a first global multi-center ensemble system dedicated to probabilistic forecasts of wind-...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Paul Wittmann; Michael Sestak; Jessica Schauer; Scott Stripling; Natacha B. Bernier; Jamie McLean; Yung Chao; Arun Chawla; Hendrik Tolman; Glenn Nelson; Stephen Klotz

170

Predicting daily streamflow using rainfall forecasts, a simple loss module and unit hydrographs: Two Brazilian catchments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of a simple, spatially-lumped, rainfall-streamflow model is compared with that of a more complex, spatially-distributed model. In terms of two model-fit statistics it is shown that for two catchments in Brazil (about 30,000km^2 and 34,000km^2) ... Keywords: Brazil, Hydropower, Rainfall forecasts, River Paraná, Streamflow forecasts, Unit hydrographs

I. G. Littlewood; R. T. Clarke; W. Collischonn; B. F. W. Croke

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

A Comparison of the Noah and OSU Land Surface Models in the ECPC Seasonal Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Noah land surface model (LSM) has recently been implemented into the Experimental Climate Prediction Center’s (ECPC’s) global Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM). Its performance is compared to the older ECPC SFM with the Oregon State University (...

Laurel L. De Haan; Masao Kanamitsu; Cheng-Hsuan Lu; John O. Roads

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

A Real-Time Hurricane Surface Wind Forecasting Model: Formulation and Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A real-time hurricane wind forecast model is developed by 1) incorporating an asymmetric effect into the Holland hurricane wind model; 2) using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane ...

Lian Xie; Shaowu Bao; Leonard J. Pietrafesa; Kristen Foley; Montserrat Fuentes

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

175

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

176

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

A Multigrid Wave Forecasting Model: A New Paradigm in Operational Wave Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new operational wave forecasting system has been implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) using the third public release of WAVEWATCH III. The new system uses a mosaic of grids with two-way nesting in a single ...

Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; Vera Gerald; Deanna Spindler; Todd Spindler; Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Degui Cao; Jeffrey L. Hanson; Eve-Marie Devaliere

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

179

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

180

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, FADOUA BALABDAOUI, AND MICHAEL POLAKOWSKI  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-error correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities

Raftery, Adrian

184

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Weather Forecasts by the WRF-ARW Model with the GSI Data Assimilation System in the Complex Terrain Areas of Southwest Asia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper will first describe the forecasting errors encountered from running the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model; ARW) in the complex terrain of ...

J. Xu; S. Rugg; L. Byerle; Z. Liu

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...

P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

River Thames River Thames  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

C BD A River Thames River Thames Waterloo & City Southwark Northwood Northwood Hills North Harrow Oaks South Croydon East Croydon Streatham Common West Norwood Gipsy Hill Crystal Palace Birkbeck Penge

Delmotte, Nausicaa

189

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

191

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

192

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

193

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

194

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

195

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

196

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

197

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

198

Modernization in the National Weather Service River and Flood Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrologic forecasting is vital not only to the National Weather Service mission of saying lives and protecting property but also to our nation's water management decision makers. Since its inception, the River and Flood Program has continually ...

D.L. Fread; R.C. Shedd; G.F. Smith; R. Farnsworth; C.N. Hoffeditz; L.A. Wenzel; S.M. Wiele; J.A. Smith; G.N. Day

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

202

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

203

Forecast Verification of the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Sea Ice Concentration Fields  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Ice Center relies upon a coupled ice–ocean model called the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) to provide guidance for its 24–120-h sea ice forecasts. Here forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration (C) fields from PIPS ...

Michael L. Van Woert; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Walter N. Meier; Philip D. Hovey; Ruth H. Preller; Pamela G. Posey

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Dynamical Tropical Cyclone 96- and 120-h Track Forecast Errors in the Western North Pacific  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been issuing 96- and 120-h track forecasts since May 2003. It uses four dynamical models that provide guidance at these forecast intervals and relies heavily on a consensus of these four models in producing ...

Ryan M. Kehoe; Mark A. Boothe; Russell L. Elsberry

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Object-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convection-Allowing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts generated by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms with 1- and 4-km grid spacing using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF; ARW1 and ARW4, respectively) for the 2009–11 NOAA Hazardous Weather ...

Aaron Johnson; Xuguang Wang; Fanyou Kong; Ming Xue

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

The National Meteorological Center Regional Analysis System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) Regional Optimum-Interpolation (ROI) analysis is described. The ROI is the analysis component of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) and is specially designed to provide initial conditions for ...

Geoffrey J. DiMego

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Programs of the National Data Buoy Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Platforms of the National Data Buoy Center provide vital meteorological and oceanographic observations from data-sparse marine areas worldwide. The data are essential for real-time weather forecasting and research programs. This paper provides ...

Eric A. Meindl; Glenn D. Hamilton

1992-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

212

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

214

The Impact of Land Surface and Atmospheric Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts with CCSM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Series of forecast experiments for two seasons investigate the impact of specifying realistic initial states of the land in conjunction with the observed states of the ocean and atmosphere while using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (...

Daniel A. Paolino; James L. Kinter III; Ben P. Kirtman; Dughong Min; David M. Straus

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in Africa Using CCA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A potentially operational forecast system for 3-month total precipitation for three sections of the African continent has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The ...

Anthony G. Barnston; Wassila Thiao; Vadlamani Kumar

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill and potential value of fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) ensembles are evaluated for short-range (24 h) probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over ...

David R. Bright; Steven L. Mullen

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

An Analysis of ENSO Prediction Skill in the CFS Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The present study documents the so-called spring prediction and persistence barriers in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective ...

Renguang Wu; Ben P. Kirtman; Huug van den Dool

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

An Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors, 1970–1979  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Official Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center over the decade of the 1970's are examined in this study. The purpose is to isolate any significant biases, trends or other statistical properties of the ...

Charles S. Neumann; Joseph M. Pelissier

1981-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) against observations made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at the southern ...

Fanglin Yang; Hua-Lu Pan; Steven K. Krueger; Shrinivas Moorthi; Stephen J. Lord

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into a Decision Support Application for Power Outage Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variety of decision-support systems, such as those employed by energy and utility companies, use the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of track and intensity to inform operational decision-making as a hurricane approaches. Track and intensity ...

Steven M. Quiring; Andrea B. Schumacher; Seth D. Guikema

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Diagnostic and Forecast Graphics Products at NMC Using High Frequency Model Output  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Archived hourly output from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) prediction models has provided the basis for advanced graphic diagnostic and forecast tools. The high-frequency data are available on a regional selected station network. Each ...

David W. Plummer

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Anthropogenic Moisture Effects on WRF Summertime Surface Temperature and Mixing Ratio Forecast Skill In Southern California  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Mesoscale forecasts for the Los Angeles basin made with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) exhibited a moderate to substantial warm temperature bias for extended ...

Rich F. Coleman; James F. Drake; Michael D. McAtee; Leslie O. Belsma

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Hydrometeorological Accuracy Enhancement via Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Complex Terrain  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing techniques such as model output statistics are used by national weather centers to improve the skill of numerical forecasts. However, many of these techniques require an extensive database to develop, maintain, and ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in the Tropical Pacific Islands Using CCA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A potentially operational system for 3-month total precipitation forecasts for island stations in the tropical Pacific has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). ...

Yuxiang He; Anthony G. Barnston

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Characteristics of Subsurface Ocean Response to ENSO Assessed from Simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The subsurface ocean temperature response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined based on 31-yr (1981–2011) simulations with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The ...

Hui Wang; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang

226

Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that Affect Forecast Sounding Interpretation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of parameterized convection on Eta Model forecast soundings is examined. The Betts–Miller–Janji? parameterization used in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model introduces characteristic profiles of temperature and ...

Michael E. Baldwin; John S. Kain; Michael P. Kay

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) conducts annual spring forecasting experiments organized by the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory to test and evaluate emerging scientific concepts and technologies for improved analysis ...

Adam J. Clark; Steven J. Weiss; John S. Kain; Israel L. Jirak; Michael Coniglio; Christopher J. Melick; Christopher Siewert; Ryan A. Sobash; Patrick T. Marsh; Andrew R. Dean; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong; Kevin W. Thomas; Yunheng Wang; Keith Brewster; Jidong Gao; Xuguang Wang; Jun Du; David R. Novak; Faye E. Barthold; Michael J. Bodner; Jason J. Levit; C. Bruce Entwistle; Tara L. Jensen; James Correia Jr.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

The Dependence of Short-Range 500-mb Height Forecasts on the Initial Flow Regime  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast errors in the 500-mb geopotential height field over North America and adjacent ocean environs are calculated for the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM). The eight winters 1985/86-1992/93 are examined. Errors are ...

Laura A. Stoss; Steven L. Mullen

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

METRo: A New Model for Road-Condition Forecasting in Canada  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A numerical model to forecast road conditions, Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads (METRo), has been developed to run at Canadian weather centers. METRo uses roadside observations from road weather information systems stations as ...

Louis-Philippe Crevier; Yves Delage

2001-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

An Examination of Model Track Forecast Errors for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Sources of dynamical model track error for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico are examined. Deterministic and ensemble model output are compared against National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ...

Michael J. Brennan; Sharanya J. Majumdar

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

234

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS  

SciTech Connect

This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

Thomas, L.C.

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ¥oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

249

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

250

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

252

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

255

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

256

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

264

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

265

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

266

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

267

The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center’s immediate history dates to the middle of the ...

Stephen F. Corfidi

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

269

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the Last 25 Years: Then versus Now  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this paper is to review the large strides made in tornado and severe thunderstorm forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS) of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during the last 25 years or so of its existence. The ...

Frederick P. Ostby

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

272

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

273

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

274

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

276

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

277

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

278

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

279

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

280

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Organization of the River and Flood Program in the National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Weather Service is charged by law with the responsibility of issuing forecasts and warnings of floods to the nation to help save lives and mitigate property damage. This mission falls under the authority of the River and Flood ...

E. A. Stallings; L. A. Wenzel

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Predictability of Heavy Precipitation in the Waikato River Basin of New Zealand  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper investigates the predictability of heavy precipitation in the economically important Waikato River basin of New Zealand. A 2-yr archive of Global Forecast System (GFS) model data to +180 h for the period August 2005–August 2007 forms ...

Stacey Dravitzki; James McGregor

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Statistical Analysis of Forecasting Models across the North Slope of Alaska during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Eta Model, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Global Modeling and Assimilation ...

Victor T. Yannuzzi; Eugene E. Clothiaux; Jerry Y. Harrington; Johannes Verlinde

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Characteristics of High-Resolution Versions of the Met Office Unified Model for Forecasting Convection over the United Kingdom  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range ...

Humphrey W. Lean; Peter A. Clark; Mark Dixon; Nigel M. Roberts; Anna Fitch; Richard Forbes; Carol Halliwell

2008-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper verifies the strengths and positions of extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the ...

Michael E. Charles; Brian A. Colle

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Estimating Monthly and Seasonal Distributions of Temperature and Precipitation Using the New CPC Long-Range Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for transforming underlying climatological distributions for monthly and seasonal mean temperature and monthly and seasonal total precipitation, in a manner consistent with long-range forecasts by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, is ...

William M. Briggs; Daniel S. Wilks

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Synoptic Forecasting of the Oceanic Mixed Layer Using the Navy's Operational Environmental Data Base: Present Capabilities and Future Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A synoptic forecast model of the oceanic mixed layer has been developed for operational use at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC), Monterey, Calif. The potential success of this model depends critically on the quality of ...

R. Michael Clancy; Paul J. Martin

1981-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

A Statistical Comparison of the Forecasts Produced by the NGM and LFM for the 1987/88 Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts from the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) nested grid model (NGM) and limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM) were compared objectively for the 1987/88 cool season. Mean values of various predicted variables were computed for each ...

John S. Jensenius Jr.

1990-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Characterization of complexities in Czochralski crystal growth by nonlinear forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

How the flow of the silicon melt affects Czochralski crystal growth in terms of nonlinear forecasts about the time series of striations of as?grown crystals and the melt temperature fluctuations beneath the crystal is investigated. The melt exhibits nonstationary self?affine random motion added to regular motion. The random contribution becomes dominant toward the center of the crucible. Such dynamical properties of the melt are found to be embedded into the striations.

Takaya Miyano; Hiroshi Morita; Akira Shintani; Tadashi Kanda; Masataka Hourai

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

304

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

315

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

316

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

317

Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather ...

Edward N. Rappaport; James L. Franklin; Lixion A. Avila; Stephen R. Baig; John L. Beven II; Eric S. Blake; Christopher A. Burr; Jiann-Gwo Jiing; Christopher A. Juckins; Richard D. Knabb; Christopher W. Landsea; Michelle Mainelli; Max Mayfield; Colin J. McAdie; Richard J. Pasch; Christopher Sisko; Stacy R. Stewart; Ahsha N. Tribble

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

The Meteorological Operations Division of the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Meteorological Operations Division of the National Meteorological Center is the primary analysis and forecast facility of the National Weather Service. The division's many products provide guidance to the meteorological community throughout ...

Stephen F. Corfidi; Kenneth E. Comba

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Personal Computers, Weather Observations, and the National Climatic Data Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The personal computer (PC) has become an important part of meteorological observing, telecommunications, forecasting, research, and data-management systems. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is the nation's quality-control and archival ...

Richard Heim Jr.

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

About CRSP Management Center  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

CRSP Act Power Projects Contact CRSP Customers Environmental Review-NEPA Financial Data Operations Planning & Projects Power Marketing Rates CRSP Act Power Projects Contact CRSP Customers Environmental Review-NEPA Financial Data Operations Planning & Projects Power Marketing Rates About Colorado River Storage Project Management Center CRSP Management Center Office The Ak-Chin Indian Community in Arizona, the city of Aspen, Colo., and Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico are a few of the vital customers of the Colorado River Storage Project's Management Center. We assist customers in saving their valuable electrical resources by actively promoting energy management and conservation programs and helping them determine their future energy needs. When customers want new products and services tailored to their individual needs, we explore their ideas. We are also committed to protecting the delicate balance of the Colorado River and its tributaries. Agencies that manage this river's resources must weigh its many roles: irrigation, recreation, hydropower and native and non-native endangered species habitat protection. Balancing these resources with the needs of water and electrical energy customers is a chief concern.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

322

Analyzing utilization rates in data centers for optimizing energy management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, we explore academic data center utilization rates from an energy management perspective with the broader goal of providing decision support for green computing. The utilization rate is defined as the overall extent to which data center ... Keywords: Utilization Rates,Cloud,Data Centers,Forecasting,Green IT

Michael Pawlish; Aparna S. Varde; Stefan A. Robila

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

326

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

332

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

333

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

340

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

342

Oncology Center  

SciTech Connect

Efforts by the Hollings Cancer Center to earn a designation as a National Cancer Center are outlined.

Kraft, Andrew S.

2009-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

343

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

344

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

345

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

346

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

347

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

348

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

349

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

350

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

351

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

352

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

353

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

355

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

356

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

357

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

358

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

360

The Savannah River National Laboratory's Response to the Graniteville, SC Train Accident  

SciTech Connect

The Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Weather INformation and Display (WIND) System was used to provide meteorological and atmospheric modeling/consequence assessment support to state and local agencies following the collision of two Norfolk Southern freight trains on the morning of January 6, 2005. This collision resulted in the release of several toxic chemicals to the environment, including chlorine. The dense and highly toxic cloud of chlorine gas that formed in the vicinity of the accident was responsible for nine fatalities and injuries to more than five hundred others. Transport model results depicting the forecast path of the ongoing release were made available to emergency managers in the county's Unified Command Center shortly after SRNL received a request for assistance. Support continued over the ensuing two days of the active response. The SRNL also provided weather briefings and transport/consequence assessment model results to responders from South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental control (SCDHEC), the Savannah River Site's (SRS) Emergency Operations Center (EOC), DOE Headquarters, and hazmat teams dispatched from the SRS.

Hunter, C. H.; Parker, M. J.; Buckley, R. L.; Weber, A. H.; Addis, R. P.

2005-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Hydrological Budgets and Surface Energy Balance of Seven Subbasins of the Mackenzie River from the ECMWF Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The liquid and frozen hydrological budgets and the surface energy budget from seven subbasins of the Mackenzie River are analyzed using hourly integrals from the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts model from September 1996 to ...

Alan K. Betts; Pedro Viterbo

2000-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures' Returns: Are Implied Volatility Factors Informative?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study develops a multi-period log-return quantile forecasting procedure to evaluate the performance of eleven nearby commodity futures contracts (NCFC) using a sample of 897 daily price observations and at-the-money (ATM) put and call implied volatilities of the corresponding prices for the period from 1/16/2008 to 7/29/2011. The statistical approach employs dynamic log-returns quantile regression models to forecast price densities using implied volatilities (IVs) and factors estimated through principal component analysis (PCA) from the IVs, pooled IVs and lagged returns. Extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses are conducted, including assessment of excess trading returns, and evaluations of several combinations of quantiles, model specifications, and NCFC's. The results suggest that the IV-PCA-factors, particularly pooled return-IV-PCA-factors, improve quantile forecasting power relative to models using only individual IV information. The ratio of the put-IV to the call-IV is also found to improve quantile forecasting performance of log returns. Improvements in quantile forecasting performance are found to be better in the tails of the distribution than in the center. Trading performance based on quantile forecasts from the models above generated significant excess returns. Finally, the fact that the single IV forecasts were outperformed by their quantile regression (QR) counterparts suggests that the conditional distribution of the log-returns is not normal.

Dorta, Miguel

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

364

Comments of the Southern Environmental Law Center and the American...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Southern Environmental Law Center and the American Lung Association in response to the Department of Energy's Emergency Order to Resume Operations at the Potomac River Generating...

365

ARM - News Center  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Center Center Media Contact Lynne Roeder lynne-dot-roeder-at-pnnl-dot-gov @armnewsteam Field Notes Blog Topics Field Notes89 AGU 3 AMIE 10 ARM Aerial Facility 2 ARM Mobile Facility 1 6 ARM Mobile Facility 2 47 BAECC 1 BBOP 4 MAGIC 12 MC3E 17 SGP 2 STORMVEX 29 TCAP 3 Search News Search Blog News Center All Categories What's this? Social Media Guidance News Center All Categories Features and Releases Facility News Field Notes Blog feed Events feed Employment Research Highlights Data Announcements Education News Archive What's this? Social Media Guidance News Center Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate Jan 07, 2014 [ Research Highlights ] Predicting how atmospheric aerosols influence cloud formation and the resulting feedback to climate is a challenge that limits the accuracy of atmospheric models. This is especially true in the Arctic, where mixed-phase (both ice- and liquid-based) clouds are frequently observed, but the processes that determine their composition are poorly understood. To obtain a closer look [...]

366

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the �black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the �price puzzle� and the �liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson�s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

368

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Colleges  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Colleges and Universities Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Colleges and Universities February 1, 2013 - 9:00am Addthis South Carolina State University students William Dumpson, left, and Alejandra Chirino, center, talk with Savannah River National Laboratory Director Dr. Terry Michalske at a recent research exchange involving the laboratory and seven historically black colleges and universities. South Carolina State University students William Dumpson, left, and Alejandra Chirino, center, talk with Savannah River National Laboratory Director Dr. Terry Michalske at a recent research exchange involving the laboratory and seven historically black colleges and universities.

370

Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Colleges  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Colleges and Universities Savannah River National Laboratory Meets with Historically Black Colleges and Universities February 1, 2013 - 9:00am Addthis South Carolina State University students William Dumpson, left, and Alejandra Chirino, center, talk with Savannah River National Laboratory Director Dr. Terry Michalske at a recent research exchange involving the laboratory and seven historically black colleges and universities. South Carolina State University students William Dumpson, left, and Alejandra Chirino, center, talk with Savannah River National Laboratory Director Dr. Terry Michalske at a recent research exchange involving the laboratory and seven historically black colleges and universities.

371

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Storm Surge Forecast Model: A Case Study of the Florida Coast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The operational forecast demands and constraints of the National Hurricane Center require that a storm surge model in research mode be tested against a benchmark model such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) for accuracy, ...

Keqi Zhang; Yuepeng Li; Huiqing Liu; Jamie Rhome; Cristina Forbes

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional WRF ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

376

Error Climatology of the 80-Wave Medium-Range Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A climatology of the once-daily (0000 UTC) 1000-hPa error fields of the National Meteorological Center's 80-wave Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model is studied. An analysis of the error field has been conducted over the contiguous United States and ...

David R. Walker; Robert E. Davis

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Our River  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

River River Nature Bulletin No. 22 July 7, 1945 Forest Preserve District of Cook County Clayton F. Smith, President Roberts Mann, Superintendent of Conservation OUR RIVER The people of Cook County are missing a bet. They are not using their DesPlaines River. The other day we took a boat trip down that river from Lake County to Lawndale Avenue in Summit. It being a week day, we saw few people other than an occasional fisherman or pairs of strolling boys. Except for a bridge now and then, there were no signs or sounds of civilization. Chicago might have been a thousand miles away. We rested. There was isolation. There was peace. Once in a while a heron flew ahead of us; or a squirrel scampered up a tree; once we saw a family of young muskrats playing around the entrance to their den in the bank; twice we saw and heard a wood duck; again and again big fish plowed ripples surging ahead of us. It was shady and cool and still beneath the arching trees. We thought of the centuries this river had traveled. We were babes nuzzling again at the breast of Mother Nature.

378

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

380

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

391

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

392

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

393

Savannah River Site  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

River Site Savannah River Site Savannah River Site (SRS) has mission responsibilities in nuclear weapons stockpile stewardship by ensuring the safe and reliable management of...

394

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

395

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

402

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

403

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

404

River Steamboats  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

River Steamboats River Steamboats Nature Bulletin No. 628-A February 12, 1977 Forest Preserve District of Cook County George W. Dunne, President Roland F. Eisenbeis, Supt. of Conservation RIVER STEAMBOATS The westward migration of the pioneer settlers and the rapid growth of agriculture, commerce and industry in the Middle West is in large part the story of water transportation on our inland waterways. The two main water routes were the chain of Great Lakes on the north and the Ohio River on the south. Sailing vessels carrying hundreds of tons were able to navigate on the Great Lakes almost as freely as on the ocean. Also, on the Ohio and Mississippi rivers heavy loads could be floated downstream from Pittsburgh to New Orleans -- almost 2000 miles. But boats had to be hauled back upstream by manpower -- grueling labor, stretching over weeks or months to move a few tons a few hundred miles. The coming of the steamboat a century and a half ago changed all this.

405

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

408

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

417

TVA and the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Project. Hearing before the Subcommittee on Regional and Community Development of the Committee on Environment and Public Works, United States Senate, Ninety-Eighth Congress, First Session, April 20, 1983  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Witnesses from the Environmental Policy Institute and Center, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and DOE discussed alternative financing options for the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR), specifically TVA participation. W.F. Willis of TVA described its obligations to purchase the electrical output and to provide energy to the plant prior to startup, but warned that current demand forecasts will mean that TVA would not exercise its exclusive option to buy the plant until 1994 at the earliest. TVA is willing, however, to wheel the power to neighboring utilities, and continues to support the project. William U. Chandler of the Environmental Policy Institute and Center presented evidence that the capacity provided by CRBR is not needed, and that its revenues will be inadequate. Additional material from the Congressional Research Service, DOE, and others follows the testimony. (DCK)

Not Available

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

419

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

424

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Günter Blöschl; Christian Reszler; Jürgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peña Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

426

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rösch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

433

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

435

Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitude–longitude grid with 80-km grid ...

Nathan M. Hitchens; Harold E. Brooks

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Value Centers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Value centers identify the over-reaching themes, initiatives, and opportunities in alignment with the strategic goals of AOCS. Value Centers AOCS History and Governance about us aocs committees contact us division council fats governing board hist

437

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Objectively Determining the Rotational Center of Tropical Cyclones in Passive Microwave Satellite Imagery  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precise center-fixing of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critical for operational forecasting, intensity estimation, and visualization. Current procedures are usually performed with manual input from a human analyst, using multispectral satellite ...

Anthony J. Wimmers; Christopher S. Velden

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Spatial Resolution Impacts on National Meteorological Center Nested Grid Model Simulations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts from different resolution versions of the National Meteorological Center Nested Grid Model (NGM) are compared for two case studies to assess an optimal ratio of model vertical and horizontal resolutions. Four combinations are considered:...

David D. Houghton; Ralph A. Petersen; Richard L. Wobus

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The utility and shortcomings of near-real-time ocean surface vector wind retrievals from the NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) in operational forecast and analysis activities at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are described. The use of ...

Michael J. Brennan; Christopher C. Hennon; Richard D. Knabb

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

444

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

445

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability  

Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center (EERE)

Diesel Vehicle Diesel Vehicle Availability to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability on Delicious Rank Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability on Digg Find More places to share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Diesel Vehicle Availability on AddThis.com... More in this section... Biodiesel Basics Benefits & Considerations Stations Vehicles Availability Emissions Laws & Incentives Diesel Vehicle Availability According to J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting, demand for light-duty diesel vehicles might double in the next 10 years. More auto manufacturers

446

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information – including all information contained in the history of past prices – about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This dissertation investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local neighborhood of each model grid point location ?. A local error covariance matrix P? is defined for each local region and the diagnostics are applied to the linear space S? defined by the range of the ensemble based estimate of P?. The particular diagnostics are chosen to help investigate the ability of S? to efficiently capture the space of true forecast or analysis uncertainties, accurately predict the magnitude of forecast or analysis uncertainties, and to distinguish between the importance of different state space directions. Additionally, we aim to better understand the roots of the underestimation of the magnitude of uncertainty by the ensemble at longer forecast lead times. Numerical experiments are carried out with an implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both simulated observations under the perfect model scenario and observations of the real atmosphere are used in these experiments. It is found that (i) paradoxically, the linear space S? provides an increasingly better estimate of the space of forecast uncertainties as the time evolution of the ensemble perturbations becomes more nonlinear with increasing forecast time, (ii) S? provides a more reliable linear representation of the space of forecast uncertainties for cases of more rapid error growth, (iii) the E-dimension is a reliable predictor of the performance of S? in predicting the space of forecast uncertainties, (iv) the ensemble grossly underestimates the forecast error variance in S?, (v) when realistic observation coverage is used, the ensemble typically overestimates the uncertainty in the leading eigen-directions of ˆP ? and underestimates the uncertainty in the trailing directions at analysis time and underestimates the uncertainty in all directions by the 120-hr forecast lead time, and (vi) at analysis time, with a constant covariance inflation factor, the ensemble typically underestimates uncertainty in densely observed regions and overestimates the uncertainty in sparsely observed regions.

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

454

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

455

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

456

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

457

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

458

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

459

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

460

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "river forecast center" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

462

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

463

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

464

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

465

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

466

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

467

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

468

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

469

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

470

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

471

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew Lim@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract Goodness­of­fit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit

Yao, JingTao

472

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order

Yao, JingTao

473

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

478

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

479

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

480

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

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481

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

482

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

483

Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...

Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...

J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...

Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems—complexity and dimensionality—are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...

Allan H. Murphy

1991-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...

S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...

Thomas M. Hamill

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...

497

Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...

E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polguère

1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...

499

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...

500

Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes–no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided ...

Paul J. Roebber

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z