National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for risk assessment results

  1. A Regulator’s Perspective on Interpretation of Performance and Risk Assessment Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  2. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  3. Quantification of key long-term risks at CO? sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; Chu, Shaoping; Dilmore, Robert; Gastelum, Jason; Oldenburg, Curt; Stauffer, Philip; Zhang, Yingqi; Guthrie, George

    2014-12-31

    Risk assessment for geologic CO? storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO? sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO? and brine leakage. The simulation results are also used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.

  4. Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; Chu, Shaoping; Dilmore, Robert; Gastelum, Jason; Oldenburg, Curt; Stauffer, Philip; Zhang, Yingqi; Guthrie, George

    2014-12-31

    Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

  5. Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A set of issues that state and local governments should carefully consider, with the goal of helping them assess and anticipate solutions for some worst case or unfortunate case scenarios as they...

  6. Risk Assessment & Management Information

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NRC - A Proposed Risk Management Regulatory Framework, April 2012 Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) web page DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty

  7. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  8. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  9. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Community, Environment » Environmental Stewardship » Environmental Protection » Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals. Contact Environmental Communication & Public Involvement P.O. Box 1663 MS M996 Los Alamos, NM 87545 (505) 667-0216 Email The ECORISK Database is a screening tool that helps scientists evaluate impacts on LANL's ecology. Assessing our

  10. Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy ...

  11. Environmental Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    PPPO subject-matter experts analyze possible environmental hazards and provide risk assessment information to help inform various environmental decision-making processes.

  12. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  13. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  14. Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  15. Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  16. Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  17. Communicating Performance Assessments Results - 13609

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Layton, Mark

    2013-07-01

    The F-Area Tank Farms (FTF) and H-Area Tank Farm (HTF) are owned by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and operated by Savannah River Remediation LLC (SRR), Liquid Waste Operations contractor at DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS). The FTF and HTF are active radioactive waste storage and treatment facilities consisting of 51 carbon steel waste tanks and ancillary equipment such as transfer lines, evaporators and pump tanks. Performance Assessments (PAs) for each Tank Farm have been prepared to support the eventual closure of the underground radioactive waste tanks and ancillary equipment. PAs provide the technical bases and results to be used in subsequent documents to demonstrate compliance with the pertinent requirements for final closure of the Tank Farms. The Tank Farms are subject to a number of regulatory requirements. The State regulates Tank Farm operations through an industrial waste water permit and through a Federal Facility Agreement approved by the State, DOE and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Closure documentation will include State-approved Tank Farm Closure Plans and tank-specific closure modules utilizing information from the PAs. For this reason, the State of South Carolina and the EPA must be involved in the performance assessment review process. The residual material remaining after tank cleaning is also subject to reclassification prior to closure via a waste determination pursuant to Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2005. PAs are performance-based, risk-informed analyses of the fate and transport of FTF and HTF residual wastes following final closure of the Tank Farms. Since the PAs serve as the primary risk assessment tools in evaluating readiness for closure, it is vital that PA conclusions be communicated effectively. In the course of developing the FTF and HTF PAs, several lessons learned have emerged regarding communicating PA results. When communicating PA results it is important to stress that the primary goal of the PA results is to provide risk understanding, recognizing the magnitude of risk and identifying the conceptual model decisions and critical assumptions that most impact the results. Conceptual models that describe reality using simplified, mathematical approaches, and their roles in arriving at the PA results, must also be communicated. When presenting PA results, evaluations will typically be focused on a single baseline (or Base Case) to provide a foundation for discussion. The PA results are supplemented by other studies (alternate configurations, uncertainty analyses, and sensitivity analyses) which provide a breadth of modeling to supplement the Base Case. The suite of information offered by the various modeling cases and studies provides confidence that the overall risk is understood along with the underlying parameters and conditions that contribute to risk. (author)

  18. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State...

  19. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Mathematical models for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaikin, S.A.

    1995-12-01

    The use of mathematical models in risk assessment results in the proper understanding of many aspects of chemical exposure and allows to make more actual decisions. Our project ISCRA (Integrated Systems of Complex Risk Assessment) has the aim to create integrated systems of algorythms for prediction of pollutants` exposure on human and environmental health and to apply them for environmental monitoring, and decision-making. Mathematical model {open_quotes}MASTER{close_quotes} (Mathematical Algorythm of SimulaTion of Environmental Risk) represents the complex of algorythmical blocks and is intended for the prediction of danger of pollutants` exposure for human and environmental risk. Model LIMES (LIMits EStimation) is developed for prognosis of safety concentrations of pollutants in the environment both in the case of isolated exposure and in the case of complex exposure for concrete location. Model QUANT (QUANtity of Toxicant) represents the multicompartmental physiological pharmacokinetic model describing absorption, distribution, fate, metabolism, and elimination of pollutants in the body of different groups of human population, as a result of the different kind of exposure. Decision support system CLEVER (Complex LEVE1 of Risk) predicts the probability and the degree of development of unfavourable effects as result of exposure of pollutant on human health. System is based on the data of epidemiological and experimental researches and includes several mathematical models for analysis of {open_quotes}dose-time-response{close_quotes} relations and information about clinical symptoms of diseases. Model CEP (Combination Effect Prognosis) contains probabilistic algorythms for forecasting the effect of simultaneous impact of several factors polluting the environment. The result of the program work is the prediction of an independent exposure of two or more factors, and intensification or weakening of exposure in depending on factors` interactions.

  1. Topographical Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  2. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-12-31

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance.

  3. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    Evaluation of criticality safety has become an important task in preparing for the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS) uranium enrichment runs that will take place during the Integrated Process Demonstration (IPD) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). This integrated operation of AVLIS systems under plant-like conditions will be used to verify the performance of process equipment and to demonstrate the sustained integrated enrichment performance of these systems using operating parameters that are similar to production plant specifications. Because of the potential criticality concerns associated with enriched uranium, substantial effort has been aimed towards understanding the potential system failures of interest from a criticality standpoint, and evaluating them in detail. The AVLIS process is based on selective photoionization of uranium atoms of atomic weight 235 (U-235) in a vapor stream, followed by electrostatic extraction. The process is illustrated in Figure 1. Two major subsystems are involved: the uranium separator and the laser system. In the separator, metallic uranium is fed into a crucible where it is heated and vaporized by an electron beam. The atomic U-235/U-238 vapor stream moves away from the molten uranium and is illuminated by precisely tuned beams of dye laser light. Upon absorption of the tuned dye laser light, the U-235 atoms become excited and eject electrons (become photoionized), giving them a net positive charge. The ions of U-235 are moved preferentially by an electrostatic field to condense on the product collector, forming the enriched uranium product. The remaining vapor, which is depleted in U-235 (tails), passes unaffected through the photoionization/extractor zone and accumulates on collectors in the top of the separator. Tails and product collector surfaces operate at elevated temperatures so that deposited materials flow as segregated liquid streams. The separated uranium condensates (uranium enriched in U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  4. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  5. Risk and Safety Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Safety Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power ...

  6. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  7. Risk and Safety Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Safety Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  8. Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Carbon Capture and Storage » Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage Research in simulation and risk assessment is focused on development of advanced simulation models of the subsurface and integration of the results into a risk assessment that includes both technical and programmatic risks. Simulation models are critical for predicting the flow of the CO2 in the target formations, chemical changes that may occur in the reservoir, and

  9. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  10. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  11. River Corridor Baseline Risk Assessment (RCBRA) Human Health Risk Assessment (Volume 2)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sands Jim Hansen U.S. Department of Energy - Richland Operations Office October 12, 2011 River Corridor Baseline Risk Assessment (RCBRA) Human Health Risk Assessment (Volume 2) * RCBRA Human Health Risk Assessment is final - Response provided to HAB advice #246 * RCBRA Ecological Risk Assessment (Draft C) was transmitted to regulators September 27 * Columbia River Component - Draft Ecological Screening Level Risk Assessment ready for regulator review - Draft Human health risk assessment will be

  12. Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations The Missouri Industrial Assessment Center shares its...

  13. RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL EXPERT WORKING GROUP

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Risk Assessment Technical Expert Working Group (RWG) is established to assist the Department of Energy (DOE) with the appropriate and effective use of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear...

  14. EPA`s risk assessment guidelines: Overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patton, D.E.

    1990-12-31

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment guidelines for cancer, quantification, and exposure issues are discussed.

  15. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  16. Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations The Missouri Industrial Assessment Center shares its experience providing energy assessments to local industry. PDF icon Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations (April 16, 2009) More Documents & Publications Energy Assessments Industrial Assessment Centers Quarterly Update, Spring 2014 IAC Factsheet

  17. Document Number Q0029500 Baseline Risk Assessment Update 4.0 Baseline Risk Assessment Update

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Baseline Risk Assessment Update 4.0 Baseline Risk Assessment Update This section updates the human health and the ecological risk assessments that were originally presented in the 1998 RI (DOE 1998a). The impacts on the 1998 risk assessments are summarized in Section 2.9. 4.1 Human Health Risk Assessment Several activities completed since 1998 have contributed to changes in surface water and ground water concentrations. Activities that have impacted, or likely impacted surface water and ground

  18. Risk assessment based on point source deposition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chadwick, G.F.

    1997-12-31

    The International Joint Commission (IJC) in a recently published report states that various clean-up techniques have resulted in significantly cleaner lakes than 20 years ago. Both the US EPA and Environment Canada have passed laws that require emissions controls on significant sources of contaminants. Improved emission controls have played a large part in the reduced pollution levels to the Great Lakes. Improved controls have significantly reduced the pollutants deposited to both land and water. This paper will discuss a Risk Analysis for the emissions from a Hospital in Rochester, New York. Current New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) regulations require emission controls on such incinerators. This hospital has added both a scrubber and a bag house to control emissions. Twenty years ago, such incinerators, like many other emission sources would not have had control devices. New York`s Department of Environmental Conservation requires, as part of the Permitting process, that an Impact Analysis and if required, a multipathway Health Risk Assessment (HRA) be performed for all Medical Waste Incinerators before a Permit can be issued. This insures that the emissions will not create a health hazard to humans. Such an analysis was performed for a new 1,000 lb/hr Medical Waste Incinerator (MWI) installed in the North-East part of Rochester, New York. An Air Quality Impact Assessment (AQIA) based on an actual stack test indicated that this facility`s dioxin emissions would exceed the NY DEC Guideline levels. The Carcinogenic Risk (of death) for our most exposed individual (MEI) was calculated to be 8.75 E{sup {minus}06} (<1:100,000). The Hazard Index calculated for this MEI was 0.43. Hazard Index`s less then 1 are considered a reasonable risk. Health risk assessments are by design, very conservative. EPA sources have concluded that calculated death risks between one (1) and one hundred (100) per million are not excessive.

  19. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  20. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative OE is leading a State Energy Risk...

  1. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation...

  2. Compliance & Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Compliance & Risk Assessment Compliance & Risk Assessment PPPO scientists work to identify, analyze, and mitigate environmental hazards and risks to protect human health and safety and the environment. PPPO works proactively with state and federal regulatory agencies to ensure safe, effective, and compliant cleanup at the Sites. Regulatory Compliance Regulatory Agencies.png PPPO works with multiple regulatory agencies that promote safety and environmental quality regionally and

  3. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    OE is leading a State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better understand risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed decisions about their investments, resilience and hardening strategies, and asset management. As part of this Initiative, OE has developed a series of State and Regional Energy Risk Profiles that examine the relative magnitude of the risks that each State's energy infrastructure routinely encounters in comparison with the probable impacts.

  4. Sandia Energy - Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessmentcwdd2015-05-04T21:05:48+00:00 security Water Treatment Facility Definition Security is assuring that water sources and water distribution systems are...

  5. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. ; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, risk and social impact assessment (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  7. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  8. Risk assessment as a framework for decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rechard, Robert Paul; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Borns, David James

    2010-12-01

    The risk assessment approach has been applied to support numerous radioactive waste management activities over the last 30 years. A risk assessment methodology provides a solid and readily adaptable framework for evaluating the risks of CO2 sequestration in geologic formations to prioritize research, data collection, and monitoring schemes. This paper reviews the tasks of a risk assessment, and provides a few examples related to each task. This paper then describes an application of sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters to reduce the uncertainty in the performance of a geologic repository for radioactive waste repository, which because of importance of the geologic barrier, is similar to CO2 sequestration. The paper ends with a simple stochastic analysis of idealized CO2 sequestration site with a leaking abandoned well and a set of monitoring wells in an aquifer above the CO2 sequestration unit in order to evaluate the efficacy of monitoring wells to detect adverse leakage.

  9. Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment The objective of the PTRA program is to develop new tools and approaches for understanding, ...

  10. List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Discussion List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of...

  11. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative The Office of...

  12. SPIDERS Integrated Assessment and Operational Demonstration Results

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SPIDERS Integrated Assessments and Operational Demonstration Results Kevin Schneider Ph.D., P.E. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory kevin.schneider@pnnl.gov PNNL-SA-XXXXX Overview  Goals of the SPIDERS Phase 2 Operational Demonstration (OD)  Results of the Phase 2 Utility Assessment Reports (UAR)  Current Status of Phase 3 Integrated Assessment Plan (IAP) 2 Goals of the Operational Demonstration  SPIDERS is a three year JCTD with a "crawl, walk, run" philosophy. 

  13. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  14. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aguilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a small comparable target cohort group) is more likely to choose to attack the specific target under analysis because he perceives it to be a relatively unique attack opportunity. The opposite is also true. Thus, total risk is related to the number of targets that exist in each scenario cohort group. This paper describes the Total Risk Assessment Methodology and illustrates it through an example.

  15. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  16. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  17. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  18. Incinerator thermal release valve risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stevens, J.B.

    1998-12-31

    Human health risk assessments were conducted on emissions from several types of incinerators--a hazardous waste combustor, a medical waste/tire combustor, and a refuse derived fuel combustor in three different states. As part of these studies, the short-term emissions from thermal release valves operating during upset conditions were additionally evaluated. The latter assessments addressed two specific risk-related questions: (1) what are the incremental long-term risks/hazards associated with these short-term emissions; (2) what are the acute health hazards associated with these emissions? For each study, emission estimates for both the incinerator stack and the thermal release valve were obtained from the facility. Stack testing was utilized to obtain stack gas concentrations of emissions at one facility; engineering estimates were used to ascertain emissions from the thermal release valve. The two facilities were proposed incinerators, so literature-derived emissions were used throughout.

  19. Preliminary Risk Assessment Associated with IGSCC of BWR Vessel Internals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Ware; K. Morton; M. Nitzel; N. Chokshi; T-Y. Chang

    1999-08-01

    BWR core shrouds and other reactor internals important to safety are experiencing intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has followed the problem, and as part of its investigations, contracted with the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) to conduct a risk assessment. The overall project objective is to assess the potential consequences and risks associated with the failure of IGSCC-susceptible BWR vessel internals, with specific consideration given to potential cascading and common mode effects. The paper presents an overview of the program, discusses the results of a preliminary qualitative assessment, and summarizes a simplified risk assessment that was conducted on sequences resulting from failures of jet pump components of a BWR/4 plant.

  20. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    National Risk Assessment Parnership National Risk Assessment Partnership National Risk Assessment Partnership National Risk Assessment Partnership Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership 30 September 2012 NETL Technical Report Series NETL-TRS-NRAP-2012 Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or

  1. Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group The Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) is established to assist DOE in the appropriate and effective use of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear safety related activities. The activities of the group will help DOE ensure that risk assessments supporting nuclear safety decisions are conducted in a consistent manner, of appropriate quality, properly tailored to the needs of the

  2. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  3. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S.

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  4. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  5. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project:

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies | Department of Energy Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies Presentation from the May 2015 Seismic Lessons-Learned Panel Meeting. PDF icon INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL

  6. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  7. DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk...

  8. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State and Regional...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    OE is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better understand risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed...

  9. The Role Risk Assessments Have Played in Proposed CERCLA Decision...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Applicable Relevant and Appropriate Requirements Examples: Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, Air Emissions Regulations * Policy * Risk Assessment * Risk Management *...

  10. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  11. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  12. Creating a Culture of Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    OE’s Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis Division is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to better understand potential impacts to energy infrastructure. The initiative is a collaborative effort with the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO), the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), and the National Governors Association (NGA). Below is a brochure describing the initiative.

  13. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM) - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs

  14. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  15. Risk assessment in the DOE Assurance Program for Remedial Action

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marks, S.; Cross, F.T.; Denham, D.H.; Kennedy, W.E.; Stenner, R.D.

    1985-08-01

    This document provides information obtained during the performance of risk assessment tasks in support of the Assurance Program for Remedial Action (APRA) sponsored by the Office of Operational Safety of the Department of Energy. We have presented a method for the estimation of projected health effects at properties in the vicinity of uranium mill tailing piles due to transported tailings or emissions from the piles. Because radon and radon daughter exposure is identified as the principal factor contributing to health effects at such properties, the basis for estimating lung cancer risk as a result of such exposure is discussed in detail. Modeling of health risk due to a secondary pathway, ingestion of contaminated, home-grown food products, is also discussed since it is a potentially important additional source of exposure in certain geographic locations. Risk assessment methods used in various mill tailings reports are reviewed. The protocols for radiological surveys conducted in DOE-sponsored remedial action programs are critically reviewed with respect to their relevance to the needs of health risk estimation. The relevance of risk assessment to the APRA program is discussed briefly.

  16. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  17. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  18. Hanford Waste Vitrification Systems Risk Assessment action plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, W.C.

    1990-11-01

    Recent events in the Hanford waste storage tanks and delays in the startup of US Department of Energy vitrification plans suggest that the schedule for waste vitrification activities at the Hanford Site should be reexamined. As a result, a Hanford Waste Vitrification Systems Risk Assessment will be performed to identify significant risks associated with the vitrification of Hanford high-level and transuranic wastes. This document defines the purpose, scope, plan of execution, responsibilities, reporting requirements, and preliminary schedule and cost estimate to complete this assessment. The study will identify and evaluate uncertainties, quantify potential consequences from these uncertainties, and identify the risks to successful completion of the Hanford vitrification mission. Waste characterization, retrieval, pretreatment, and vitrification will be addressed. Uncertainties associated with the vitrification of double-shell and single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules, as well as a limited assessment of the grouting of low-level wastes, will be defined. Technical, regulatory (safety and environmental), and programmatic (cost and schedule) uncertainties will be defined. Recommendations for mitigating strategies and assessments of technical alternatives will be made to reduce substantial risks. 2 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  19. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 76.8 Bq m{sup ?3} to 571.1 251.4 Bq m{sup ?3}, 101.0 41.0 Bq m{sup ?3} to 245.3 100.2 Bq m{sup ?3}, 53.1 7.5 Bq m{sup ?3} to 181.8 9.7 Bq m{sup ?3}, 256.1 59.3 Bq m{sup ?3} to 652.2 222.2 Bq m{sup ?3} and 164.5 75.9 Bq m{sup ?3} to 653.3 240.0 Bq m{sup ?3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 194.3 Bq m{sup ?3}, 192.1 75.4 Bq m{sup ?3}, 176.1 85.9 Bq m{sup ?3} and 28.4 5.7 Bq m{sup ?3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m{sup ?3} proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas, all building material samples have exceeded the radon concentration in concrete and building materials of 3 to 7 Bq m{sup ?3} estimated by ICRP. The annual effective dose, effective dose equivalent, and radon exhalation rates in tin tailings were calculated to be in the range of 2.47 to 11.46 mSv, 5.94 to 1090.56 mSv y{sup ?1}, and 0.23 to 1.18 mBq kg{sup ?1} h{sup ?1}. For building materials, the calculated risk assessment of the annual effective dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk were 0.72 to 10.00 mSv, 1.73 to 24.00 mSv y{sup ?1}, 0.010 to 0.06 mBq kg{sup ?1} h{sup ?1} and 40 to 550 chances of persons will suffer the cancer per million (1 10{sup 6}), respectively.

  20. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  1. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  2. Section 55: Results of Compliance Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOE 1997b), and Supplemental Summary of EPA-Mandated Performance Assessment Verification Test (All Replicates) and Comparison with the Compliance Certification Application...

  3. Baseline ecological risk assessment Salmon Site, Lamar County, Mississippi

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The Salmon Site (SS), formerly the Tatum Dome Test Site, located in Mississippi was the site of two nuclear and two gas explosion tests conducted between 1964 and 1970. A consequence of these testing activities is that radionuclides were released into the salt dome, where they are presently contained. During reentry drilling and other site activities, incidental liquid and solid wastes that contained radioactivity were generated, resulting in some soil, ground water and equipment contamination. As part of the remedial investigation effort, a Baseline Ecological Risk Assessment was conducted at the SS. The purpose is to gauge ecological and other environmental impacts attributable to past activities at the former test facility. The results of this facility-specific baseline risk assessment are presented in this document.

  4. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Methodologies and Challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2012-05-31

    Abstract- This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses different approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies. The second paper summarizes the state of the art in modeling tools for risk assessment of cascading outages.

  5. Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-01

    Abstract-This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers [1, 2] are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the second of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. The first paper reviews the state of the art in methodologies for performing risk assessment of potential cascading outages [3]. This paper describes the state of the art in cascading failure modeling tools, documenting the view of experts representing utilities, universities and consulting companies. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about presently available tools that deal with prediction of cascading failure events. This effort involves reviewing published literature and other documentation from vendors, universities and research institutions. The assessment of cascading outages risk evaluation is in continuous evolution. Investigations to gain even better understanding and identification of cascading events are the subject of several research programs underway aimed at solving the complexity of these events that electrical utilities face today. Assessing the risk of cascading failure events in planning and operation for power transmission systems require adequate mathematical tools/software.

  6. Risk assessment of landfill disposal sites - State of the art

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Butt, Talib E. Lockley, Elaine; Oduyemi, Kehinde O.K.

    2008-07-01

    A risk assessment process can assist in drawing a cost-effective compromise between economic and environmental costs, thereby assuring that the philosophy of 'sustainable development' is adhered to. Nowadays risk analysis is in wide use to effectively manage environmental issues. Risk assessment is also applied to other subjects including health and safety, food, finance, ecology and epidemiology. The literature review of environmental risk assessments in general and risk assessment approaches particularly regarding landfill disposal sites undertaken by the authors, reveals that an integrated risk assessment methodology for landfill gas, leachate or degraded waste does not exist. A range of knowledge gaps is discovered in the literature reviewed to date. From the perspective of landfill leachate, this paper identifies the extent to which various risk analysis aspects are absent in the existing approaches.

  7. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  8. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  9. DOE EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix DOE EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix Earned Value Management (EVM) is a systematic approach to the integration and measurement of cost, schedule, and technical (scope) accomplishments on a project or task. It provides both the government and contractors the ability to examine detailed schedule information, critical program and technical milestones, and cost data. File DOE EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix More Documents & Publications Enhancing Earned Value (EV) Analysis

  10. Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment The objective of the PTRA program is to develop new tools and approaches for understanding, limiting, and managing the risks of proliferation and physical security for fuel cycle options. NE, in collaboration with National Nuclear Security Administration, will focus on assessments required to inform domestic fuel cycle technology and system option development, partnering with other organizations to share

  11. Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Making | Department of Energy Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision Making Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision Making May 22, 2015 - 3:28pm Addthis Alice Lippert Alice Lippert Senior Technical Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better

  12. DOE Draft Standard, Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Applications, 12/10 | Department of Energy Draft Standard, Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments in Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Applications, 12/10 DOE Draft Standard, Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments in Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Applications, 12/10 The Department has taken several actions to provide an infrastructure for providing appropriate controls and support for use of risk assessments and

  13. Webinar: Genetically Modified Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Webinar: Genetically Modified Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment Webinar: Genetically Modified Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment Genetically Modified (GM) Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment PDF icon gm_algae_webinar_october_2014 More Documents & Publications National Alliance for Advanced Biofuels and Bioproducts Synopsis (NAABB) Final Report National Alliance for Advanced Biofuels and Bioproducts Synopsis (NAABB) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program: 2002

  14. Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    peer guidance andor recommendations for P&RAs such that they are based on sound science and are defensible. PDF icon Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment ...

  15. Security Risk Assessment Methodologies (RAM) for Critical Infrastructu...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Building Energy Efficiency Find More Like This Return to Search Security Risk Assessment Methodologies (RAM) for Critical Infrastructures Sandia National Laboratories...

  16. Sandia Energy - DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments Home Infrastructure Security Infrastructure Assurance Facilities News NISAC News & Events Research & Capabilities Modeling...

  17. DOE (Department of Energy) risk assessment worksheets: A structured approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-09-01

    This volume consists of the worksheets for each step in completing the guideline. This guideline outlines the approach to conducting risk assessments of computer security. (JEF)

  18. The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order...

  19. Assessing the health risk of solar development on contaminated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    published report from Argonne's Environmental Science (EVS) division presents a methodology for assessing potential human health risks of developing utility-scale solar...

  20. October 13, 2015 Webinar - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy 3, 2015 Webinar - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach October 13, 2015 Webinar - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach Performance & RIsk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Webinar - October 13, 2015 - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach by Mr. Stuart Walker, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2-3 pm Eastern Time. PDF icon Agenda - October 13, 2015 - P&RA CoP Webinar PDF icon Presentation - U.S. EPA Superfund Remedial Program's Approach

  1. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  2. Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

    1994-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

  3. A mathematically guided strategy for risk assessment and management.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, James Arlin

    2005-03-01

    Strategies for risk assessment and management of high consequence operations are often based on factors such as physical analysis, analysis of software and other logical processing, and analysis of statistically determined human actions. Conventional analysis methods work well for processing objective information. However, in practical situations, much or most of the data available are subjective. Also, there are potential resultant pitfalls where conventional analysis might be unrealistic, such as improperly using event tree and fault tree failure descriptions where failures or events are soft (partial) rather than crisp (binary), neglecting or misinterpreting dependence (positive, negative, correlation), and aggregating nonlinear contributions linearly. There are also personnel issues that transcend basic human factors statistics. For example, sustained productivity and safety in critical operations can depend on the morale of involved personnel. In addition, motivation is significantly influenced by 'latent effects', which are pre-occurring influences. This paper addresses these challenges and proposes techniques for subjective risk analysis, latent effects risk analysis and a hybrid analysis that also includes objective risk analysis. The goal is an improved strategy for risk management.

  4. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  5. Risk Assessment in Support of DOE Nuclear Safety, Risk Information Notice, June 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On August 12, 2009, the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board(DNFSB) issued Recommendation 2009‐1, Risk Assessment Methodologies at Defense Nuclear Facilities. Thisrecommendation focused on the...

  6. A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This resource handbook was compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group. This document includes the first of a planned series of discussion papers on topical aspects of transportation risk problems. These discussion papers are intended to provide practical advice to program managers and technical personnel responsible for preparing NEPA documents and other transportation risk assessments.

  7. A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment (DOE, 2002)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This resource handbook was compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group. This document includes the first of a planned series of discussion papers on topical aspects of transportation risk problems. These discussion papers are intended to provide practical advice to program managers and technical personnel responsible for preparing NEPA documents and other transportation risk assessments.

  8. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  9. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called ``produced water.`` Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium.

  10. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called produced water.'' Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium.

  11. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  12. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Part I - Overview of Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2011-07-31

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which will extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses diffeent approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies.

  13. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Justin Coleman

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  14. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suski, N; Wuest, C

    2011-02-04

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment Phase brings together infrastructure owners and operators to identify critical assets and help the team create a structured information request. During this phase, we gain information about the critical assets from those who are most familiar with operations and interdependencies, making the time we spend on the ground conducting the assessment much more productive and enabling the team to make actionable recommendations. The Assessment Phase analyzes 10 areas: Threat environment, cyber architecture, cyber penetration, physical security, physical penetration, operations security, policies and procedures, interdependencies, consequence analysis, and risk characterization. Each of these individual tasks uses direct and indirect data collection, site inspections, and structured and facilitated workshops to gather data. Because of the importance of understanding the cyber threat, LLNL has built both fixed and mobile cyber penetration, wireless penetration and supporting tools that can be tailored to fit customer needs. The Post-Assessment Phase brings vulnerability and risk assessments to the customer in a format that facilitates implementation of mitigation options. Often the assessment findings and recommendations are briefed and discussed with several levels of management and, if appropriate, across jurisdictional boundaries. The end result is enhanced awareness and informed protective measures. Over the last 15 years, we have continued to refine our methodology and capture lessons learned and best practices. The resulting risk and decision framework thus takes into consideration real-world constraints, including regulatory, operational, and economic realities. In addition to 'on the ground' assessments focused on mitigating vulnerabilities, we have integrated our computational and atmospheric dispersion capability with easy-to-use geo-referenced visualization tools to support emergency planning and response operations. LLNL is home to the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) and the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC). NA

  15. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, S. Y.; Kapoor, A. K.

    2003-02-27

    In an attempt to bring forth increased efficiency and effectiveness in assessing transportation risks associated with radioactive materials or wastes, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program (NTP) published a resource handbook in 2002. The handbook draws from the broad technical expertise among DOE national laboratories and industry, which reflects the extensive experience gained from DOE's efforts in conducting assessments (i.e., environmental impact assessments) within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the past 20 years. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information regarding the approach and basis for conducting transportation risk assessments under normal or accidental conditions that are associated with shipping radioactive materials or wastes. It is useful as a reference to DOE managers, NEPA assessors, technical analysts, contractors, and also stakeholders. It provides a summary of pertinent U.S. policies and regulations on the shipment of radioactive materials, existing guidance on preparing transportation risk assessments, a review of previous transportation risk assessments by DOE and others, a description of comprehensive and generally accepted transportation risk assessment methodologies, and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and assumptions. The handbook also provides a discussion paper on an issue that has been identified as being important in the past. The discussion paper focuses on cumulative impacts, illustrating the ongoing evolution of transportation risk assessment. The discussion may be expanded in the future as emerging issues are identified. The handbook will be maintained and periodically updated to provide current and accurate information.

  16. The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology | Department of Energy The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology Presentation from the May 2015 Seismic Lessons-Learned Panel Meeting. PDF icon The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A

  17. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruno, Michael

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  18. Quantitative fire risk assessment for a proposed tritium technology facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zeng, Y. )

    1991-01-01

    A new Tritium Technology Facility has been proposed for the Chalk River Laboratories to support fusion research and the commercial use of tritium. One of the major safety and licensing issues for the new facility raised by the internal Safety Review Committee is the potential hazard fire poses to it. Fire could cause a large release from tritium from the facility's metal tritide storage beds, resulting in conversion of elemental tritium (HT) into oxide tritium (HTO). The radiological hazard of HTO is {approximately}10,000 times higher than that of HT. Because of the potential significance of fire in the tritium facility, a quantitative fire risk assessment has been conducted for the proposed new facility. The frequency of a large tritium release due to a fire in the Tritium Technology Facility was assessed as being on the order of 10{sup {minus}5} per year, which satisfies the safety goal requirement of the facility.

  19. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  20. Baseline Risk Assessment for 200-BP-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  1. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012) The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is conducting research to advance the science and engineering knowledge base for technologies that will accelerate the business case for CO{sub 2} capture and storage, including prediction and

  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine Vessel

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Traffic and Wind Energy Development | Department of Energy Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine Vessel Traffic and Wind Energy Development Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine Vessel Traffic and Wind Energy Development September 12, 2014 - 12:08pm Addthis The nationwide demand for energy is fueling development of sustainable offshore wind resources. To reach the strong and steady offshore wind resources, the Bureau of Ocean Energy

  3. Risk assessment activities at NIOSH: Information resources and needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B.

    1990-12-31

    Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

  4. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Quantification issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dourson, M.L.

    1990-12-31

    The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

  5. Low Power and Shutdown Risk Assessment Benchmarking Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J.Mitman, J. Julius, R. Berucio, M. Phillips, J. Grobbelaaar, D. Bley, R. Budniz

    2002-12-15

    (B204)Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) insights are now used by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) to confirm the level of safety for plant operations and to justify changes in nuclear power plant operating requirements, both on an exception basis and as changeds to a plant's licensing basis. This report examines qualitative and quantitative risk assessments during shutdown plant states, providing feedback to utilities in the use of qualitative models for outage risk management, and also providing input to the development of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Low Power and Shutdown PRA Standard.

  6. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1995-06-23

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

  7. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-09-15

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

  8. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Euling, Susan Y.; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Benson, Robert

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and doseresponse. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questionsDo the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  9. SCUBA TECHNIQUES USED IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE NUCLEAR

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    SCUBA TECHNIQUES USED IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE NUCLEAR LEAKAGE AROUND AMCHITKA ISLAND, ALASKA Stephen Jewett, Max Hoberg, Heloise Chenelot, Shawn Harper Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7220 Joanna Burger Division of Life Sciences, Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP), and Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), 604 Allison Road, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854-8082

  10. Rapid Risk Assessment: FY05 Annual Summary Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene; Millard, W. David; Gelston, Gariann M.; Pelton, Mitch A.; Yang, Zhaoqing; Strenge, Dennis L.; Lee, Cheegwan; Sivaraman, Chitra; Simpson, Mary J.; Young, Joan K.; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.; Downing, Timothy R.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.; Hachmeister, Lon E.

    2006-03-06

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing decision support tools that will assist in the transition of incident information into Protective Action Recommendations (PARs) that are understandable and can be executed in a real-world, operational environment. During emergencies, responders must rapidly assess risks and decide on the best course of actionall within minutes to hours. PNNL is blending existing modeling and decision support technology to develop new methods for transitioning science-based threat assessment to PARs. The rapid risk assessment tool will be both understandable and applicable to the emergency management community and would be a valuable tool during any water security-related incident. In 2005, PNNL demonstrated the integration of the multi-thematic modeling with emergency management decision support tools to create a Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) tool that will transition risk to PARs that assist in responding to or mitigating the direct and indirect impacts of the incident(s). The RRA tool does this by aligning multi-thematic modeling capabilities with real-world response zones established by emergency and site operations managers. The RRA tool uses the risk assessment tool to drive prognostic models that use the type of incident, time of impact, severity of impact, and duration of impact to select the most appropriate PAR. Because PARs (and the thresholds by which they are selected) are jointly established by the technologists and the emergency management and operations decision makers, the science-based risk assessment can transition into a recommendation that can be understood and executed by people in the field.

  11. Waste management health risk assessment: A case study of a solid waste landfill in South Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davoli, E.; Fattore, E.; Paiano, V.; Colombo, A.; Palmiotto, M.; Rossi, A.N.; Il Grande, M.; Fanelli, R.

    2010-08-15

    An integrated risk assessment study has been performed in an area within 5 km from a landfill that accepts non hazardous waste. The risk assessment was based on measured emissions and maximum chronic population exposure, for both children and adults, to contaminated air, some foods and soil. The toxic effects assessed were limited to the main known carcinogenic compounds emitted from landfills coming both from landfill gas torch combustion (e.g., dioxins, furans and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, PAHs) and from diffusive emissions (vinyl chloride monomer, VCM). Risk assessment has been performed both for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects. Results indicate that cancer and non-cancer effects risk (hazard index, HI) are largely below the values accepted from the main international agencies (e.g., WHO, US EPA) and national legislation ( and ).

  12. USDOE study: Human health and ecological risk assessment for produced water discharges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; Holtzman, S.; DePhillips, M.; Hamilton, L.D.

    1994-12-31

    Produced water generated during the production of oil and gas can contain high concentrations of radionuclides, organics and heavy metals. There are concerns about potential human health and ecological impacts from the discharge of these contaminants to the Gulf of Mexico. Data collected in the United States Department of Energy (USDOE) field study are being used in a series of human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will support scientifically-based regulation and risk management. This presentation: summarizes risk assessments performed for produced water discharges; describes how uncertainties in these assessments are guiding data collection efforts in the USDOE field study; and outlines ongoing risk assessment studies. In these studies, risk assessment is treated as an iterative process. An initial screening-level assessment is performed to identify important contaminants, transport and exposure pathways, and parameters. These intermediate results are used to guide data collection efforts and refinements to the analysis. At this stage in the analysis, risk is described in terms of probabilities; the uncertainties in each measured or modeled parameter are considered explicitly.

  13. Overview of DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadasivan, Pratap

    2012-08-24

    Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D program planning. The PTRA program supports DOE-NE's goal of using risk information to inform R&D program planning. The FY12 PTRA program is focused on terrorism risk. The program includes a mix of innovative methods that support the general practice of risk assessments, and selected applications.

  14. Data banks for risk assessment at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Durant, W.S.; Townsend, C.S.; Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.

    1992-01-01

    One of the lessons learned from many years of risk assessment experience is that mistakes of the past are soon forgotten if no method is available to retrieve and review these events. Savannah River Site has maintained a computerized data bank system for recording, retrieving and reviewing its incident history. The system is based on a series of compilations developed primarily for risk assessment but has been found to be invaluable for many other uses such as equipment reliability, project justification, and incident investigations.

  15. Data banks for risk assessment at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Durant, W.S.; Townsend, C.S.; Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.

    1992-11-01

    One of the lessons learned from many years of risk assessment experience is that mistakes of the past are soon forgotten if no method is available to retrieve and review these events. Savannah River Site has maintained a computerized data bank system for recording, retrieving and reviewing its incident history. The system is based on a series of compilations developed primarily for risk assessment but has been found to be invaluable for many other uses such as equipment reliability, project justification, and incident investigations.

  16. Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.; Dyer, G.; Johnson, N.; McSwain, J. T.

    2011-02-01

    A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.

  17. Sitewide biological risk assessment Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska: Risks to terrestrial receptors from diverse contaminants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brandt, C.A.; Becker, J.M.

    1995-12-31

    Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) is located southeast of Fairbanks, Alaska. Eielson AFB was listed by the US Environmental Protection Agency on the National Priorities List with a total of 64 potential terrestrial and aquatic source areas. Contaminants of concern include fuel and fuel components, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and lead. As part of the remedial investigations of these sites, a biological risk assessment (BRA) was conducted to estimate the risk of ecological effects on terrestrial receptors posed by contaminants in the Eielson environment. There are 32 mammal species, 117 bird species, 17 fish species, and 1 amphibian species known to inhabit Eielson AFB and vicinity. The BRA screened source areas based on completed biological exposure pathways, selected receptors for analysis, estimated exposure of receptors to contaminants, and compared these exposures to known toxicological effects. Lower Garrison Slough and Flightline Pond posed a substantial risk for shrikes and goshawks. Ingestion of PCBs constituted the primary pathway/contaminant combination contributing to this risk. The effects of the various sources of uncertainty in the ingestion exposure calculations for these sites were evaluated in a probabilistic risk assessment using Monte Carlo methods. There was an 11% risk of reproductive effects from PCBs for goshawks feeding from Flightline Pond and a 25 % risk from lower Garrison Slough. There was an 81 % risk of reproductive effects from PCB exposure for shrikes feeding near lower Garrison Slough.

  18. Information resource use and need in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turturro, A.

    1990-12-31

    The manner in which the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) uses information resources comprises an interesting illustration of federal agency information use. A description of the context in which risk assessment occurs within the FDA is followed by a discussion of information access and use, as well as a practical example.

  19. INTERAGENCY PERFORMANCE AND RISK ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    October 13, 2015, Tuesday, 2:00 am to 3:00 pm EDT Agenda 2:00 - 2:05 am Introduction (Dr. Ming Zhu, DOE EM) 2:05 am - 2:55 pm Presentation - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach...

  20. Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Ming Zhu, Ph.D., PE, PMP Chair of P&RA CoP P&RA CoP Technical Exchange Meeting Las Vegas, NV December 11-12,...

  1. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Safety Applications

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    NOT MEASUREMENT SENSITIVE DOE-STD-1628-2013 November 2013 DOE STANDARD DEVELOPMENT OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR NUCLEAR SAFETY APPLICATIONS U.S. Department of Energy AREA SAFT Washington, DC 20585 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DOE-STD-1628-2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE Foreword ........................................................................................................................................... i 1.

  2. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH USE OF EXTERNAL TECHNICAL REVIEWS, TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS AND TECHNICAL RISK RATINGS - 9174

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cercy, M; Steven P Schneider, S; Kurt D Gerdes, K

    2008-12-12

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. A large majority of these wastes and facilities are 'one-of-a-kind' and unique to DOE. Many of the programs to treat these wastes have been 'first-of-a-kind' and unprecedented in scope and complexity. This has meant that many of the technologies needed to successfully disposition these wastes were not yet developed or required significant re-engineering to be adapted for DOE-EM's needs. The DOE-EM program believes strongly in reducing the technical risk of its projects and has initiated several efforts to reduce those risks: (1) Technology Readiness Assessments to reduce the risks of deployment of new technologies; (2) External Technical Reviews as one of several steps to ensure the timely resolution of engineering and technology issues; and (3) Technical Risk Ratings as a means to monitor and communicate information about technical risks. This paper will present examples of how Technology Readiness Assessments, External Technical Reviews, and Technical Risk Ratings are being used by DOE-EM to reduce technical risks.

  3. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH USE OF EXTERNAL TECHNICAL REVIEWS, TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS AND TECHNICAL RISK RATINGS - 9174

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cercy, M; Steven P Schneider, S; Kurt D Gerdes, K

    2009-01-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. A large majority of these wastes and facilities are 'one-of-a-kind' and unique to DOE. Many of the programs to treat these wastes have been 'first-of-a-kind' and unprecedented in scope and complexity. This has meant that many of the technologies needed to successfully disposition these wastes were not yet developed or required significant re-engineering to be adapted for DOE-EM's needs. The DOE-EM program believes strongly in reducing the technical risk of its projects and has initiated several efforts to reduce those risks: (1) Technology Readiness Assessments to reduce the risks of deployment of new technologies; (2) External Technical Reviews as one of several steps to ensure the timely resolution of engineering and technology issues; and (3) Technical Risk Ratings as a means to monitor and communicate information about technical risks. This paper will present examples of how Technology Readiness Assessments, External Technical Reviews, and Technical Risk Ratings are being used by DOE-EM to reduce technical risks.

  4. Defining resilience within a risk-informed assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Holter, Gregory M.; Bass, Robert B.; Dagle, Jeffery E.

    2011-08-01

    The concept of resilience is the subject of considerable discussion in academic, business, and governmental circles. The United States Department of Homeland Security for one has emphasised the need to consider resilience in safeguarding critical infrastructure and key resources. The concept of resilience is complex, multidimensional, and defined differently by different stakeholders. The authors contend that there is a benefit in moving from discussing resilience as an abstraction to defining resilience as a measurable characteristic of a system. This paper proposes defining resilience measures using elements of a traditional risk assessment framework to help clarify the concept of resilience and as a way to provide non-traditional risk information. The authors show various, diverse dimensions of resilience can be quantitatively defined in a common risk assessment framework based on the concept of loss of service. This allows the comparison of options for improving the resilience of infrastructure and presents a means to perform cost-benefit analysis. This paper discusses definitions and key aspects of resilience, presents equations for the risk of loss of infrastructure function that incorporate four key aspects of resilience that could prevent or mitigate that loss, describes proposed resilience factor definitions based on those risk impacts, and provides an example that illustrates how resilience factors would be calculated using a hypothetical scenario.

  5. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H.

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio of absolute risks between two modalities is less sensitive to the uncertainties in the risk model and can provide statistically significant estimates.

  6. Review of the Diablo Canyon probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.; Sabek, M.G.; Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

    1994-08-01

    This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Term Seismic Program.

  7. Save Energy Now Assessments Results 2008 Detailed Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wright, Anthony L; Martin, Michaela A; Nimbalkar, Sachin U; Quinn, James; Glatt, Ms. Sandy; Orthwein, Mr. Bill

    2010-09-01

    In October 2005, U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Bodman launched his Easy Ways to Save Energy campaign with a promise to provide energy assessments to 200 of the largest U.S. manufacturing plants. DOE's Industrial Technologies Program (ITP) responded to the Secretary's campaign with its Save Energy Now initiative, featuring a new and highly cost-effective form of energy savings assessment. The approach for these assessments drew heavily on the existing resources of ITP's technology delivery component. Over the years, ITP Technology Delivery has worked with industry partners to assemble a suite of respected software tools, proven assessment protocols, training curricula, certified energy experts, and strong partnerships for deployment. The Save Energy Now assessments conducted in calendar year 2006 focused on natural gas savings and targeted many of the nation's largest manufacturing plants - those that consume at least 1 TBtu of energy annually. The 2006 Save Energy Now assessments focused primarily on assessments of steam and process heating systems, which account for an estimated 74% of all natural gas use by U.S. manufacturing plants. Because of the success of the Save Energy Now assessments conducted in 2006 and 2007, the program was expanded and enhanced in two major ways in 2008: (1) a new goal was set to perform at least 260 assessments; and (2) the assessment focus was expanded to include pumping, compressed air, and fan systems in addition to steam and process heating. DOE ITP also has developed software tools to assess energy efficiency improvement opportunities in pumping, compressed air, and fan systems. The Save Energy Now assessments integrate a strong training component designed to teach industrial plant personnel how to use DOE's opportunity assessment software tools. This approach has the advantages of promoting strong buy-in of plant personnel for the assessment and its outcomes and preparing them better to independently replicate the assessment process at the company's other facilities. Another important element of the Save Energy Now assessment process is the follow-up process used to identify how many of the recommended savings opportunities from individual assessments have been implemented in the industrial plants. Plant personnel involved with the Save Energy Now assessments are contacted 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months after individual assessments are completed to determine implementation results. A total of 260 Save Energy Now assessments were successfully completed in calendar year 2008. This means that a total of 718 assessments were completed in 2006, 2007, and 2008. As of July 2009, we have received a total of 239 summary reports from the ESAs that were conducted in year 2008. Hence, at the time that this report was prepared, 680 final assessment reports were completed (200 from year 2006, 241 from year 2007, and 239 from year 2008). The total identified potential cost savings from these 680 assessments is $1.1 billion per year, including natural gas savings of about 98 TBtu per year. These results, if fully implemented, could reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by about 8.9 million metric tons annually. When this report was prepared, data on implementation of recommended energy and cost savings measures from 488 Save Energy Now assessments were available. For these 488 plants, measures saving a total of $147 million per year have been implemented, measures that will save $169 million per year are in the process of being implemented, and plants are planning implementation of measures that will save another $239 million per year. The implemented recommendations are already achieving total CO{sub 2} reductions of about 1.8 million metric tons per year. This report provides a summary of the key results for the Save Energy Now assessments completed in 2008; details of the 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month implementation results obtained to date; and an evaluation of these implementation results. This report also summarizes key accomplishments, findings, and lessons learned from all the Save Energy Now assessments completed to date. A separate report (Wright et al. 2010) provides more detailed information on key results for all of the 2008 assessments of steam, process heating, pumping, compressed air, and fan systems. Two prior reports (Wright et al. 2007 and Wright et al. 2009) detail the results from the 2006 and 2007 assessments and discuss the major components of the assessment process and improvements in the process made in 2007.

  8. Risk assessment and management of radiofrequency radiation exposure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dabala, Dana; Surducan, Emanoil; Surducan, Vasile; Neamtu, Camelia

    2013-11-13

    Radiofrequency radiation (RFR) industry managers, occupational physicians, security department, and other practitioners must be advised on the basic of biophysics and the health effects of RF electromagnetic fields so as to guide the management of exposure. Information on biophysics of RFR and biological/heath effects is derived from standard texts, literature and clinical experiences. Emergency treatment and ongoing care is outlined, with clinical approach integrating the circumstances of exposure and the patient's symptoms. Experimental risk assessment model in RFR chronic exposure is proposed. Planning for assessment and monitoring exposure, ongoing care, safety measures and work protection are outlining the proper management.

  9. Hanford safety analysis and risk assessment handbook (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    GARVIN, L.J.

    2003-01-20

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 1,2, and 3 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities. SARAH describes currently acceptable methodology for development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of technical safety requirements (TSR) based on 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management,'' Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements,'' and provides data to ensure consistency in approach.

  10. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bromhal, Grant; Guthrie, George

    2014-01-06

    The U.S. Department of Energys (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is conducting research to advance the science and engineering knowledge base for technologies that will accelerate the business case for CO{sub 2} capture and storage, including prediction and quantification of risks that may relate to potential liabilities. As part of this effort, NETL, through its Office of Research and Development (ORD), is leading a multi-laboratory effort that leverages broad technical capabilities across the DOE complex: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP involves five DOE national laboratories: NETL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). This team is working together to develop a science-based method for quantifying the likelihood of risks (and associated potential liabilities) for CO{sub 2} storage sites. NRAP is an effort that harnesses the breadth of capabilities across the DOE National Laboratory (NL) system into a mission-focused platform that will develop the integrated science base that can be applied to risk assessment for long-term storage of CO{sub 2}.

  11. Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott; Tony Koonce

    2014-04-01

    A key area of the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) strategy is the development of methodologies and tools that will be used to predict the safety, security, safeguards, performance, and deployment viability of SMRs. The goal of the SMR PRA activity will be to develop quantitative methods and tools and the associated analysis framework for assessing a variety of risks. Development and implementation of SMR-focused safety assessment methods may require new analytic methods or adaptation of traditional methods to the advanced design and operational features of SMRs. We will need to move beyond the current limitations such as static, logic-based models in order to provide more integrated, scenario-based models based upon predictive modeling which are tied to causal factors. The development of SMR-specific safety models for margin determination will provide a safety case that describes potential accidents, design options (including postulated controls), and supports licensing activities by providing a technical basis for the safety envelope. This report documents the progress that was made to implement the PRA framework, specifically by way of demonstration of an advanced 3D approach to representing, quantifying and understanding flooding risks to a nuclear power plant.

  12. A risk assessment software tool for evaluating potential risks to human health and the environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drendel, G.; Allen, B.; Gentry, R.; Shipp, A.; Van Landingham, C.

    1994-12-31

    The Ecology and National Environmental Policy Act Division (END), is providing a sitewide evaluation of alternative strategies for the final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant material inventory. This analysis is known as the Systems Engineering Analysis (SEA) for the Rocky Flats Plant. The primary intent of the SEA is to support the Rocky Flats Plant decision-making. As part of the SEA project, a risk assessment software tool has been developed which will assist in the analysis by providing an evaluation of potential risks to human health and the environment for the purpose of augmenting future decisions at the site.

  13. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  14. Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Low-Altitude Overflights by Fixed-Wing and Rotary-Wing Military Aircraft

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Efroymson, R.A.

    2001-01-12

    This is a companion report to the risk assessment framework proposed by Suter et al. (1998): ''A Framework for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources,'' hereafter referred to as the ''generic framework.'' The generic framework is an ecological risk assessment methodology for use in environmental assessments on Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In the generic framework, the ecological risk assessment framework of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1998) is modified for use in the context of (1) multiple and diverse stressors and activities at a military installation and (2) risks resulting from causal chains, e.g., effects on habitat that indirectly impact wildlife. Both modifications are important if the EPA framework is to be used on military installations. In order for the generic risk assessment framework to be useful to DoD environmental staff and contractors, the framework must be applied to specific training and testing activities. Three activity-specific ecological risk assessment frameworks have been written (1) to aid environmental staff in conducting risk assessments that involve these activities and (2) to guide staff in the development of analogous frameworks for other DoD activities. The three activities are: (1) low-altitude overflights by fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft (this volume), (2) firing at targets on land, and (3) ocean explosions. The activities were selected as priority training and testing activities by the advisory committee for this project.

  15. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application. It is possible to have confidence in the predictions of many of the existing models because of their fundamental physical and chemical mechanistic underpinnings and the extensive work already done to compare model predictions and empirical observations. The working group recommends that modeling tools be applied for benchmarking PBT/POPs according to exposure-to-emissions relationships, and that modeling tools be used to interpret emissions and monitoring data. The further development of models that couple fate, long-range transport, and bioaccumulation should be fostered, especially models that will allow time trends to be scientifically addressed in the risk profile.

  16. Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    | Department of Energy Practice Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015. PDF icon Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice More Documents & Publications Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice

  17. Screening Risk Assessment for Possible Radionuclides in the Amchitka Marine Environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NNSA /NV

    2002-10-31

    As part of its environmental stewardship program the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reevaluating three sites where underground nuclear tests were conducted in the deep subsurface of Amchitka Island, Alaska. The tests (i.e., Long Shot, Milrow, and Cannikin) were conducted in 1965, 1969, and 1971, respectively. Extensive investigations were conducted on these tests and their effect on the environment. Evaluations at the time of testing indicated limited release of radionuclides and absence of risk related to the testing; however, these are being reevaluated under the current DOE environmental stewardship program. A screening risk assessment of potential radionuclide release into the marine environment is an important part of this reevaluation. The risk assessment is one of three interrelated activities: a groundwater model and this screening risk assessment, both of which guide the decisions in the third activity, the site closure plan. Thus, the overall objective of the work is to understand, and subsequently manage, any risk to humans and the environment through a closure and long-term stewardship plan. The objective of this screening risk assessment is to predict whether possible releases of radionuclides at the ocean floor would represent potential risks to Native Alaskans by consumption of marine subsistence species. In addition, risks were predicted for consumers of commercial catches of marine organisms. These risks were calculated beginning with estimates of possible radionuclide release at the seafloor (from a groundwater modeling study), into the seawater, through possible uptake by marine organisms, and finally possible consumption by humans. The risk assessment model has 11 elements, progressing from potential release at the seafloor through water and food chains to human intake. Data for each of these elements were systematically found and synthesized from many sources, and represent the best available knowledge. Whenever precise data were lacking, the most conservative data were selected. Conservative assumptions and values were used for radionuclide uptake factors and for marine food ingestion rates by human receptors. The dispersion of material in the marine environment utilized a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved model (CORMIX). In addition, the screening level of 1 x 10{sup -6} or 1 excess cancer in 1 million is considered by the EPA to be below the level of concern. The end result, as presented in this report, is a highly conservative estimate of potential risks that are well below the EPA's most conservative risk threshold for both subsistence users and commercial-catch consumers.

  18. Baseline biological risk assessment for aquatic populations occurring near Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dauble, D.; Brandt, C.; Lewis, R.; Smith, R.

    1995-12-31

    Eielson Air Force Base (AFB), Alaska was listed as a Superfund site in November 1989 with 64 potential source areas of contamination. As part of a sitewide remedial investigation, baseline risk assessments were conducted in 1993 and 1994 to evaluate hazards posed to biological receptors and to human health. Fish tissue, aquatic invertebrates, aquatic vegetation, sediment, and surface water data were collected from several on-site and off-site surface water bodies. An initial screening risk assessment indicated that several surface water sites along two major tributary creeks flowing through the base had unacceptable risks to both aquatic receptors and to human health because of DDTs. Other contaminants of concern (i.e., PCBs and PAHs) were below screening risk levels for aquatic organisms, but contributed to an unacceptable risk to human health. Additional samples was taken in 1994 to characterize the site-wide distribution of PAHs, DDTs, and PCBs in aquatic biota and sediments. Concentrations of PAHs were invertebrates > aquatic vegetation > fish, but concentrations were sufficiently low that they posed no significant risk to biological receptors. Pesticides were detected in all fish tissue samples. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were also detected in most fish from Garrison Slough. The pattern of PCB concentrations in Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) was related to their proximity to a sediment source in lower Garrison Slough. Ingestion of PCB-contaminated fish is the primary human-health risk driver for surface water bodies on Eielson AFB, resulting in carcinogenic risks > 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} for future recreational land-use at some sites. Principal considerations affecting uncertainty in the risk assessment process included spatial and temporal variability in media contaminant concentrations and inconsistencies between modelled and measured body burdens.

  19. Survey of Tools for Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-17

    Cascading failure can cause large blackouts, and a variety of methods are emerging to study this challenging topic. In parts 1 and 2 of this paper, the IEEE task force on cascading failure seeks to consolidate and review the progress of the field towards methods and tools of assessing the risk of cascading failure. Part 2 summarizes and discusses the state of the art in the available cascading failure modeling tools. The discussion integrates industry and research perspectives from a variety of institutions. Strengths, weaknesses, and gaps in current approaches are indicated.

  20. Level 3 Baseline Risk Assessment for Building 3515 at Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wollert, D.A.; Cretella, F.M.; Golden, K.M.

    1995-08-01

    The baseline risk assessment for the Fission Product Pilot Plant (Building 3515) at the Oak Ridge National laboratory (ORNL) provides the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) Program at ORNL and Building 3515 project managers with information concerning the results of the Level 3 baseline risk assessment performed for this building. The document was prepared under Work Breakdown Structure 1.4.12.6.2.01 (Activity Data Sheet 3701, Facilities D&D) and includes information on the potential long-term impacts to human health and the environment if no action is taken to remediate Building 3515. Information provided in this document forms the basis for the development of remedial alternatives and the no-action risk portion of the Engineering Evaluation/Cost Analysis report.

  1. DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 | Department of Energy Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 There have been significant developments with regard to the risk assessment and risk informed decision making, as it applies to nuclear and other safety areas, since the

  2. Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA): status report and guidance for regulatory application. Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    1984-02-01

    This document describes the current status of the methodologies used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and provides guidance for the application of the results of PRAs to the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The PRA studies that have been completed or are underway are reviewed. The levels of maturity of the methodologies used in a PRA are discussed. Insights derived from PRAs are listed. The potential uses of PRA results for regulatory purposes are discussed.

  4. Hanford Tank Farm interim storage phase probabilistic risk assessment outline

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-05-19

    This report is the second in a series examining the risks for the high level waste (HLW) storage facilities at the Hanford Site. The first phase of the HTF PSA effort addressed risks from Tank 101-SY, only. Tank 101-SY was selected as the initial focus of the PSA because of its propensity to periodically release (burp) a mixture of flammable and toxic gases. This report expands the evaluation of Tank 101-SY to all 177 storage tanks. The 177 tanks are arranged into 18 farms and contain the HLW accumulated over 50 years of weapons material production work. A centerpiece of the remediation activity is the effort toward developing a permanent method for disposing of the HLW tank`s highly radioactive contents. One approach to risk based prioritization is to perform a PSA for the whole HLW tank farm complex to identify the highest risk tanks so that remediation planners and managers will have a more rational basis for allocating limited funds to the more critical areas. Section 3 presents the qualitative identification of generic initiators that could threaten to produce releases from one or more tanks. In section 4 a detailed accident sequence model is developed for each initiating event group. Section 5 defines the release categories to which the scenarios are assigned in the accident sequence model and presents analyses of the airborne and liquid source terms resulting from different release scenarios. The conditional consequences measured by worker or public exposure to radionuclides or hazardous chemicals and economic costs of cleanup and repair are analyzed in section 6. The results from all the previous sections are integrated to produce unconditional risk curves in frequency of exceedance format.

  5. Assessing Internet energy intensity: A review of methods and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coroama, Vlad C.; Hilty, Lorenz M.; Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Lerchenfeldstr. 5, 9014 St. Gallen; Centre for Sustainable Communications, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Lindstedtsvgen 5, 100 44 Stockholm

    2014-02-15

    Assessing the average energy intensity of Internet transmissions is a complex task that has been a controversial subject of discussion. Estimates published over the last decade diverge by up to four orders of magnitude from 0.0064 kilowatt-hours per gigabyte (kWh/GB) to 136 kWh/GB. This article presents a review of the methodological approaches used so far in such assessments: i) topdown analyses based on estimates of the overall Internet energy consumption and the overall Internet traffic, whereby average energy intensity is calculated by dividing energy by traffic for a given period of time, ii) model-based approaches that model all components needed to sustain an amount of Internet traffic, and iii) bottomup approaches based on case studies and generalization of the results. Our analysis of the existing studies shows that the large spread of results is mainly caused by two factors: a) the year of reference of the analysis, which has significant influence due to efficiency gains in electronic equipment, and b) whether end devices such as personal computers or servers are included within the system boundary or not. For an overall assessment of the energy needed to perform a specific task involving the Internet, it is necessary to account for the types of end devices needed for the task, while the energy needed for data transmission can be added based on a generic estimate of Internet energy intensity for a given year. Separating the Internet as a data transmission system from the end devices leads to more accurate models and to results that are more informative for decision makers, because end devices and the networking equipment of the Internet usually belong to different spheres of control. -- Highlights: Assessments of the energy intensity of the Internet differ by a factor of 20,000. We review topdown, model-based, and bottomup estimates from literature. Main divergence factors are the year studied and the inclusion of end devices. We argue against extending the Internet system boundary beyond data transmission. Decision-makers need data that differentiates between end devices and transmission.

  6. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Risk Assessment Tools D&D and Risk Assessment Tools ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computerbased model, to evaluate alternatives in the sequencing of D&D work. PDF icon D&D and Risk Assessment Tools More Documents & Publications An Automated JHA Tool, Making Safety Accessible Voluntary Protection Program Onsite Review, Oak Ridge Associated

  7. Risk assessment of Cumberland unit 2 L-O blades

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lam, T.C.T.; Puri, A.

    1996-12-31

    Concern about the reliability of the 1,300 mw Cumberland steam turbine units after an unexpected blade tip failure in the fall of 1995 caused TVA to conduct an investigation into the current reliability of the L-O blades. A probabilistic model based on the measured frequencies, damping and material fatigue data was generated. The influence of significant erosion damage on the blade natural frequencies and on the local stresses was estimated. A probabilistic model of the local fatigue limit was generated based on test data. Monte Carlo simulation was employed to estimate the probability of blade failure by comparing the dynamic stress with the fatigue limit. Risk assessment of the blade failure is presented.

  8. A review of NRC staff uses of probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    The NRC staff uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk management as important elements its licensing and regulatory processes. In October 1991, the NRC`s Executive Director for Operations established the PRA Working Group to address concerns identified by the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards with respect to unevenness and inconsistency in the staff`s current uses of PRA. After surveying current staff uses of PRA and identifying needed improvements, the Working Group defined a set of basic principles for staff PRA use and identified three areas for improvements: guidance development, training enhancements, and PRA methods development. For each area of improvement, the Working Group took certain actions and recommended additional work. The Working Group recommended integrating its work with other recent PRA-related activities the staff completed and improving staff interactions with PRA users in the nuclear industry. The Working Group took two key actions by developing general guidance for two uses of PRA within the NRC (that is, screening or prioritizing reactor safety issues and analyzing such issues in detail) and developing guidance on basic terms and methods important to the staff`s uses of PRA.

  9. Risk management of undesirable substances in feed following updated risk assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Verstraete, Frans

    2013-08-01

    Directive 2002/32/EC of 7 May 2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council on undesirable substances in animal feed is the framework for the EU action on undesirable substances in feed. This framework Directive provides: ?that products intended for animal feed may enter for use in the Union from third countries, be put into circulation and/or used in the Union only if they are sound, genuine and of merchantable quality and therefore when correctly used do not represent any danger to human health, animal health or to the environment or could adversely affect livestock production. ?that in order to protect animal and public health and the environment, maximum levels for specific undesirable substances shall be established where necessary. ?for mandatory consultation of a scientific body (EFSA) for all provisions which may have an effect upon public health or animal health or on the environment. ?that products intended for animal feed containing levels of an undesirable substance that exceed the established maximum level may not be mixed for dilution purposes with the same, or other, products intended for animal feed and may not be used for the production of compound feed. Based on the provisions and principles laid down in this framework Directive, maximum levels for a whole range of undesirable substances have been established at EU level. During the discussions in view of the adoption of Directive 2002/32/EC, the European Commission made the commitment to review all existing provisions on undesirable substances on the basis of updated scientific risk assessments. Following requests of the European Commission, the Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has completed a series of 30 risk assessments undertaken over the last 5 years on undesirable substances in animal feed reviewing the possible risks for animal and human health due to the presence of these substances in animal feed. EU legislation on undesirable substances has undergone recently several changes to take account of these most recent scientific opinions. Furthermore EFSA has assessed the risks for public and animal health following the unavoidable carry-over of coccidiostats into non target feed. Maximum levels for the unavoidable carry-over have been established for the non-target feed and the food of animal origin from non-target animal species.

  10. Licensing topical report: application of probabilistic risk assessment in the selection of design basis accidents. [HTGR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, W.J.

    1980-06-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach is proposed to be used to scrutinize selection of accident sequences. A technique is described in this Licensing Topical Report to identify candidates for Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) utilizing the risk assessment results. As a part of this technique, it is proposed that events with frequencies below a specified limit would not be candidates. The use of the methodology described is supplementary to the traditional, deterministic approach and may result, in some cases, in the selection of multiple failure sequences as DBAs; it may also provide a basis for not considering some traditionally postulated events as being DBAs. A process is then described for selecting a list of DBAs based on the candidates from PRA as supplementary to knowledge and judgments from past licensing practice. These DBAs would be the events considered in Chapter 15 of Safety Analysis Reports of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs).

  11. Developing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Storage CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duncan, Ian

    2014-08-31

    The operational risks for CCS projects include: risks of capturing, compressing, transporting and injecting CO₂; risks of well blowouts; risk that CO₂ will leak into shallow aquifers and contaminate potable water; and risk that sequestered CO₂ will leak into the atmosphere. This report examines these risks by using information on the risks associated with analogue activities such as CO2 based enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), natural gas storage and acid gas disposal. We have developed a new analysis of pipeline risk based on Bayesian statistical analysis. Bayesian theory probabilities may describe states of partial knowledge, even perhaps those related to non-repeatable events. The Bayesian approach enables both utilizing existing data and at the same time having the capability to adsorb new information thus to lower uncertainty in our understanding of complex systems. Incident rates for both natural gas and CO2 pipelines have been widely used in papers and reports on risk of CO2 pipelines as proxies for the individual risk created by such pipelines. Published risk studies of CO2 pipelines suggest that the individual risk associated with CO2 pipelines is between 10-3 and 10-4, which reflects risk levels approaching those of mountain climbing, which many would find unacceptably high. This report concludes, based on a careful analysis of natural gas pipeline failures, suggests that the individual risk of CO2 pipelines is likely in the range of 10-6 to 10-7, a risk range considered in the acceptable to negligible range in most countries. If, as is commonly thought, pipelines represent the highest risk component of CCS outside of the capture plant, then this conclusion suggests that most (if not all) previous quantitative- risk assessments of components of CCS may be orders of magnitude to high. The potential lethality of unexpected CO2 releases from pipelines or wells are arguably the highest risk aspects of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), carbon capture, and storage (CCS). Assertions in the CCS literature, that CO2 levels of 10% for ten minutes, or 20 to 30% for a few minutes are lethal to humans, are not supported by the available evidence. The results of published experiments with animals exposed to CO2, from mice to monkeys, at both normal and depleted oxygen levels, suggest that lethal levels of CO2 toxicity are in the range 50 to 60%. These experiments demonstrate that CO2 does not kill by asphyxia, but rather is toxic at high concentrations. It is concluded that quantitative risk assessments of CCS have overestimated the risk of fatalities by using values of lethality a factor two to six lower than the values estimated in this paper. In many dispersion models of CO2 releases from pipelines, no fatalities would be predicted if appropriate levels of lethality for CO2 had been used in the analysis.

  12. A joint discussion model for assessing safety, health, and environmental risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abbott, R.E.

    1995-12-01

    Industries competing in the global marketplace constantly evaluate potential opportunities for joint ventures and partnerships all over the world. In the petroleum industry, these prospects to explore for and produce oil and gas range geographically from densely populated areas, to offshore, to the remote reaches of a tropical rainforest. There are numerous risks associated with these prospects which must be assessed so that the best investments are selected. The risk categories include: commercial, technical geological, political and safety, health and environmental (SHE). SHE risks are sometimes the most difficult to assess within businesses because they do not allow an easy evaluation of economic impact or other quantification. Additionally, these issues are often not familiar to business development personnel and consequently are not evaluated on an equal basis with other risk criteria. This paper presents a joint discussion model that facilitates the communication between SHE personnel and other members of the multi-disciplinary teams responsible for evaluating and selecting the most attractive prospects. This tool uses a simple approach in contrast to the many quantitative decision-making software products currently available. It provides a set of questions related to relevant SHE issues, establishes a way to approximate the level of uncertainty in the answers, and sums the results so that a comparison among prospects is possible. In the end, a more rigorous, consistent SHE assessment of all prospects is made, and the rationale for each decision is archived so that improvement in the process over time is made easier.

  13. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  14. Assessment of the risk of transporting propane by truck and train

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1980-03-01

    The risk of shipping propane is discussed and the risk assessment methodology is summarized. The risk assessment model has been constructed as a series of separate analysis steps to allow the risk to be readily reevaluated as additional data becomes available or as postulated system characteristics change. The transportation system and accident environment, the responses of the shipping system to forces in transportation accidents, and release sequences are evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a comparison with other reports in this series. Based on the information presented, accidents involving tank truck shipments of propane will be expected to occur at a rate of 320 every year; accidents involving bobtails would be expected at a rate of 250 every year. Train accidents involving propane shipments would be expected to occur at a rate of about 60 every year. A release of any amount of material from propane trucks, under both normal transportation and transport accident conditions, is to be expected at a rate of about 110 per year. Releases from propane rail tank cars would occur about 40 times a year. However, only those releases that occur during a transportation accident or involve a major tank defect will include sufficient propane to present the potential for danger to the public. These significant releases can be expected at the lower rate of about fourteen events per year for truck transport and about one event every two years for rail tank car transport. The estimated number of public fatalities resulting from these significant releases in 1985 is fifteen. About eleven fatalities per year result from tank truck operation, and approximately half a death per year stems from the movement of propane in rail tank cars.

  15. Qualitative risk assessment of Sandia`s rocket preparation and launch facility at Barking Sands, Kauai

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahn, J.A.

    1997-12-31

    This paper demonstrates the application of a qualitative methodology for performing risk assessments using the consequence and probability binning criteria of DOE Order 5481.1B. The particular application that is the subject of this paper is a facility risk assessment conducted for Sandia National Laboratories` Kauai Test Facility (KTF). The KTF is a rocket preparation and launch facility operated by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Energy and is located on the US Navy`s Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) at Barking Sands on the western side of the island of Kauai, Hawaii. The KTF consists of an administrative compound and main launch facility located on the north end of the PMRF, as well as the small Kokole Point launch facility located on the south end of the PMRF. It is classified as a moderate hazard facility in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B. As such, its authorization basis for operations necessitates a safety/risk assessment. This paper briefly addresses the hazards associated with KTF operations and the accidents selected for evaluation, introduces the principal elements of the accident assessment methodology, presents analysis details for two of the selected accidents, and provides a summary of results for all of the accidents evaluated.

  16. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

  17. An examination of the role of risk assessment in superfund program management, implementation, and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, S.

    1995-12-01

    Human health risk assessment is playing an increasing role in the characterization of the nature and extent of human health threats posed by Superfund hazardous waste sites, and the prioritization of these sites for remediation activities. Risk assessment also plays a central role in initiatives to measure and evaluate the program`s progress in remediating these sites, and in efforts to communicate that progress to a diverse audience. This paper examines the current role of risk assessment in Superfund`s program management, implementation, and evaluation activities, and advocates the need for a comprehensive plan to enhance and systematically apply risk assessment information across all of these activities. Specifically, this paper examines the role of risk assessment at three levels: (1) the current role of risk information in Superfund`s program management activities; (2) the current role of risk information in the implementation of site cleanup; (3) profile of Superfund`s approach to measuring, evaluating, and communicating site remediation progress via Environmental Indicators (EIs). Building on this three-level examination, this paper calls for the development of a comprehensive plan for the enhanced and systematic application of risk assessment information in Superfund`s program management, implementation, and evaluation activities. This paper also draws upon the current literature on risk assessment and measurement, risk-based planning and decision-making, and risk communication.

  18. Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    RECHARD,ROBERT P.

    2000-07-14

    This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it.

  19. Qualitative Risk Assessment For An LNG Refueling Station And Review Of Relevant Safety Issues, Revision 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siu, Nathan; Herring, J Stephen; Cadwallader, Lee; Reece, Wendy; Byers, James

    2014-06-25

    This report is a qualitative assessment of the public and worker risk involved with the operation of liquefied natural gas vehicle refueling facility.

  20. Risk Assessment in the RI/FS process, and derivation of cleanup...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    - Conceptual Site Model, fate and transport, remedial action objectives Human Health Risk Assessment * Multiple "scenarios" were evaluated, each with different exposure assumptions...

  1. Agenda- Interagency Steering Committee on Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice Annual Technical Exchange Meeting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Final Agenda for the December, 2014 Interagency Steering Committee on Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice Annual Technical Exchange Meeting held in Las Vegas, Nevada.

  2. An assessment of mercury emissions and health risks from a coal-fired power plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fthenakis, V.M.; Lipfert, F.; Moskowitz, P.

    1994-12-01

    Title 3 of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) mandated that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) evaluate the need to regulate mercury emissions from electric utilities. In support of this forthcoming regulatory analysis the U.S. DOE, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the US MeHg is the predominant way of exposure to mercury originated in the atmosphere. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1,000 MW coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. This study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Even at these more elevated exposure levels, the attributable incidence in mild neurological symptoms was estimated to be quite small, especially when compared with the estimated background incidence in the population. The current paper summarizes the basic conclusions of this assessment and highlights issues dealing with emissions control and environmental transport.

  3. Incorporating Equipment Condition Assessment in Risk Monitors for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

    2013-10-01

    Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can complement the current fleet of large light-water reactors in the USA for baseload and peak demand power production and process heat applications (e.g., water desalination, shale oil extraction, hydrogen production). The day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operations and maintenance (O&M); however, the effect of diverse operating missions and unit modularity on O&M is not fully understood. These costs could potentially be reduced by optimized scheduling, with risk-informed scheduling of maintenance, repair, and replacement of equipment. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a living probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which reflects the as-operated, as-modified plant and combine event probabilities with population-based probability of failure (POF) for key components. Risk monitors extend the PRA by incorporating the actual and dynamic plant configuration (equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions, etc.) into risk assessment. In fact, PRAs are more integrated into plant management in todays nuclear power plants than at any other time in the history of nuclear power. However, population-based POF curves are still used to populate fault trees; this approach neglects the time-varying condition of equipment that is relied on during standard and non-standard configurations. Equipment condition monitoring techniques can be used to estimate the component POF. Incorporating this unit-specific estimate of POF in the risk monitor can provide a more accurate estimate of risk in different operating and maintenance configurations. This enhanced risk assessment will be especially important for aSMRs that have advanced component designs, which dont have an available operating history to draw from, and often use passive design features, which present challenges to PRA. This paper presents the requirements and technical gaps for developing a framework to integrate unit-specific estimates of POF into risk monitors, resulting in enhanced risk monitors that support optimized operation and maintenance of aSMRs.

  4. Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Teuschler, Linda K.

    2007-09-01

    The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures.

  5. A macro environmental risk assessment methodology for establishing priorities among risks to human health and the environment in the Philippines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gernhofer, S.; Oliver, T.J.; Vasquez, R.

    1994-12-31

    A macro environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodology was developed for the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as part of the US Agency for International Development Industrial Environmental Management Project. The DENR allocates its limited resources to mitigate those environmental problems that pose the greatest threat to human health and the environment. The National Regional Industry Prioritization Strategy (NRIPS) methodology was developed as a risk assessment tool to establish a national ranking of industrial facilities. The ranking establishes regional and national priorities, based on risk factors, that DENR can use to determine the most effective allocation of its limited resources. NRIPS is a systematic framework that examines the potential risk to human health and the environment from hazardous substances released from a facility, and, in doing so, generates a relative numerical score that represents that risk. More than 3,300 facilities throughout the Philippines were evaluated successfully with the NRIPS.

  6. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The components fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRCs ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  7. A framework for assessing ecological risks of petroleum-derived materials in soil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suter, G.W. II

    1997-05-01

    Ecological risk assessment estimates the nature and likelihood of effects of human actions on nonhuman organisms, populations, and ecosystems. It is intended to be clearer and more rigorous in its approach to estimation of effects and uncertainties than previously employed methods of ecological assessment. Ecological risk assessment is characterized by a standard paradigm that includes problem formulation, analysis of exposure and effects, risk characterization, and communication with a risk manager. This report provides a framework that applies the paradigm to the specific problem of assessing the ecological risks of petroleum in soil. This type of approach requires that assessments be performed in phases: (1) a scoping assessment to determine whether there is a potential route of exposure for potentially significant ecological receptors; (2) a screening assessment to determine whether exposures could potentially reach toxic levels; and (3) a definitive assessment to estimate the nature, magnitude, and extent of risks. The principal technical issue addressed is the chemically complex nature of petroleum--a complexity that may be dealt with by assessing risks on the basis of properties of the whole material, properties of individual chemicals that are representative of chemical classes, distributions of properties of the constituents of chemical classes, properties of chemicals detected in the soil, and properties of indicator chemicals. The advantages and feasibility of these alternatives are discussed. The report concludes with research recommendations for improving each stage in the assessment process.

  8. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1996-03-22

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input to regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana.

  9. Training Graduate and Undergraduate Students in Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCray, John

    2013-09-30

    Capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) and injecting it into deep underground formations for storage (carbon capture and underground storage, or CCUS) is one way of reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Gas or aqueous-phase leakage may occur due to transport via faults and fractures, through faulty well bores, or through leaky confining materials. Contaminants of concern include aqueous salts and dissolved solids, gaseous or aqueous-phase organic contaminants, and acidic gas or aqueous-phase fluids that can liberate metals from aquifer minerals. Understanding the mechanisms and parameters that can contribute to leakage of the CO2 and the ultimate impact on shallow water aquifers that overlie injection formations is an important step in evaluating the efficacy and risks associated with long-term CO2 storage. Three students were supported on the grant Training Graduate and Undergraduate Students in Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Sequestration. These three students each examined a different aspect of simulation and risk assessment related to carbon dioxide sequestration and the potential impacts of CO2 leakage. Two performed numerical simulation studies, one to assess leakage rates as a function of fault and deep reservoir parameters and one to develop a method for quantitative risk assessment in the event of a CO2 leak and subsequent changes in groundwater chemistry. A third student performed an experimental evaluation of the potential for metal release from sandstone aquifers under simulated leakage conditions. This study has resulted in two student first-authored published papers {Siirila, 2012 #560}{Kirsch, 2014 #770} and one currently in preparation {Menke, In prep. #809}.

  10. Information resources used in health risk assessment by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, G.B.; Baratta, M.; Wolfson, S.; McGeorge, L.

    1990-12-31

    The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection`s responsibilities related to health-based risk assessment are described, including its research projects and its development of health based compound specific standards and guidance levels. The resources used by the agency to support health risk assessment work are outlined.

  11. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Cancer classification issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiltse, J.

    1990-12-31

    Issues presented are related to classification of weight of evidence in cancer risk assessments. The focus in this paper is on lines of evidence used in constructing a conclusion about potential human carcinogenicity. The paper also discusses issues that are mistakenly addressed as classification issues but are really part of the risk assessment process. 2 figs.

  12. Global warming risk assessment as it is taught at the university level

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tarassova, N.P.; Malkov, A.V.

    1997-12-31

    It has already become a common place that global warming is the price payed by the civilization for the commodities of the modem life. Various branches of human activities, different types of industrial enterprises make their contributions (direct or indirect) to the Global Warming process, the impact being quite different under the {open_quote}normal{close_quotes} and {open_quote}accident{close_quotes} modes of functioning. The development of industry resulted in the considerable number of techogenic catastrophes, the consequences of the man-made disasters exceeding the ones of the natural disasters. Our statement is that in the modern education at the university level the problems of the risk analysis must be dealt with in the standard curriculum especially if technical universities are under consideration. The students are to be tought how to access the risk at the local, regional and global levels, and how to apply the skills and knowledge gained at the university to the already existing technologies, as well as to the ones under projection. The reliability of risk assessment approaches will determine the level of risk and the amount of economic resources needed to manage the risk.

  13. Assessment of methodologies for analysis of the dungeness B accidental aircraft crash risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-09-01

    The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has requested Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to review the aircraft crash methodology for nuclear facilities that are being used in the United Kingdom (UK). The scope of the work included a review of one method utilized in the UK for assessing the potential for accidental airplane crashes into nuclear facilities (Task 1) and a comparison of the UK methodology against similar International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), United States (US) Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) methods (Task 2). Based on the conclusions from Tasks 1 and 2, an additional Task 3 would provide an assessment of a site-specific crash frequency for the Dungeness B facility using one of the other methodologies. This report documents the results of Task 2. The comparison of the different methods was performed for the three primary contributors to aircraft crash risk at the Dungeness B site: airfield related crashes, crashes below airways, and background crashes. The methods and data specified in each methodology were compared for each of these risk contributors, differences in the methodologies were identified, and the importance of these differences was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. The bases for each of the methods and the data used were considered in this assessment process. A comparison of the treatment of the consequences of the aircraft crashes was not included in this assessment because the frequency of crashes into critical structures is currently low based on the existing Dungeness B assessment. Although the comparison found substantial differences between the UK and the three alternative methodologies (IAEA, NRC, and DOE) this assessment concludes that use of any of these alternative methodologies would not change the conclusions reached for the Dungeness B site. Performance of Task 3 is thus not recommended.

  14. Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed decisions about their investments, resilience and hardening strategies, and asset management. ...

  15. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed decisions about their investments, resilience and hardening strategies, and asset management. ...

  16. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  17. Phase 1 data summary report for the Clinch River Remedial Investigation: Health risk and ecological risk screening assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, R.B.; Adams, S.M.; Beauchamp, J.J.; Bevelhimer, M.S.; Blaylock, B.G.; Brandt, C.C.; Ford, C.J.; Frank, M.L.; Gentry, M.J.; Holladay, S.K.; Hook, L.A.; Levine, D.A.; Longman, R.C.; McGinn, C.W.; Skiles, J.L.; Suter, G.W.; Williams, L.F.

    1992-12-01

    The Clinch River Remedial Investigation (CRRI) is designed to address the transport, fate, and distribution of waterborne contaminants released from the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and to assess potential risks to human health and the environment associated with these contaminants. The contaminants released since the early 1940s include a variety of radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds. The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of Phase 1 of the CRRI. Phase 1 was designed to (1) obtain high-quality data to confirm existing historical data for contaminant levels in fish, sediment, and water from the CR/WBR; (2) determine the in the range of contaminant concentrations present river-reservoir system; (3) identify specific contaminants of concern; and (4) establish the reference (background) concentrations for those contaminants.

  18. Review of the independent risk assessment of the proposed Cabrillo liquified natural gas deepwater port project.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gritzo, Louis Alan; Hightower, Marion Michael; Covan, John Morgan; Luketa-Hanlin, Anay Josephine

    2006-01-01

    In March 2005, the United States Coast Guard requested that Sandia National Laboratories provide a technical review and evaluation of the appropriateness and completeness of models, assumptions, analyses, and risk management options presented in the Cabrillo Port LNG Deepwater Port Independent Risk Assessment-Revision 1 (Cabrillo Port IRA). The goal of Sandia's technical evaluation of the Cabrillo Port IRA was to assist the Coast Guard in ensuring that the hazards to the public and property from a potential LNG spill during transfer, storage, and regasification operations were appropriately evaluated and estimated. Sandia was asked to review and evaluate the Cabrillo Port IRA results relative to the risk and safety analysis framework developed in the recent Sandia report, ''Guidance on Risk Analysis and Safety Implications of a Large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Spill over Water''. That report provides a framework for assessing hazards and identifying approaches to minimize the consequences to people and property from an LNG spill over water. This report summarizes the results of the Sandia review of the Cabrillo Port IRA and supporting analyses. Based on our initial review, additional threat and hazard analyses, consequence modeling, and process safety considerations were suggested. The additional analyses recommended were conducted by the Cabrillo Port IRA authors in cooperation with Sandia and a technical review panel composed of representatives from the Coast Guard and the California State Lands Commission. The results from the additional analyses improved the understanding and confidence in the potential hazards and consequences to people and property from the proposed Cabrillo Port LNG Deepwater Port Project. The results of the Sandia review, the additional analyses and evaluations conducted, and the resolutions of suggested changes for inclusion in a final Cabrillo Port IRA are summarized in this report.

  19. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Grand Junction, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-06-01

    This Baseline Risk Assessment of Ground Water Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site Near Grand Junction, Colorado evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The remedial activities at the site were conducted from 1989 to 1993. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated ground water that flows beneath the processing site toward the Colorado River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentrations of most contaminants are used to assess risk. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to determine what remedial action may be needed for contaminated ground water at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the EPA. the first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the contaminants of potential concern in the ground water are arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, sulfate, uranium, vanadium, zinc, and radium-226. The next step in the risk assessment is to estimate how much of these contaminants people would be exposed to if they drank from a well installed in the contaminated ground water at the former processing site.

  20. CAISI Operational Assessment (OA) data collection results. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-31

    One of the lessons learned from Operation Desert Shield/Storm was the inability of deployed Combat Service Support (CSS) computers to exchange data effectively in a battlefield environment. The work-around solution to this previously identified problem has been to physically carry floppy disks between computers. A General Officer Steering Committee, directed by the Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, determined that immediate corrective action was necessary to ensure viability of the CSS Battlefield Mission Area. The study recommended that a three-phased system development plan address short-, mid- and long-term CSS automation communication interface requirements. In response to this study, Program Executive Office (PEO) Standard Army Management Information System (STAMIS) authorized the development of the CSS Automated Information System Interface (CAISI). Phase I (Near-Term) equipped the {open_quotes}first to fight{close_quotes} Contingency Corps units. Phase II (Mid-Term) is being fielded to the remainder of Force Package One units in the active force. Phase III (Long-Term) will equip the remaining units. CAISI is now in the early stages of Phase II fielding. Prior to full Phase II fielding, CAISI must be approved for production by a Milestone III decision authority. Part of the data that will be used in the Milestone III decision is a demonstration of the CAISI`s operational suitability, as assessed by the US Army Operational Test and Evaluation Command (OPTEC). This assessment will be performed through an Operational Assessment (OA) using data provided from previous technical testing, such as the CAISI Customer User Test (CUT), and a field training exercise conducted by units of the XVIII Airborne Corps. The field training exercise data collection took place during two events.

  1. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments were conducted on three (3) sites using the QFMEA model: (1) SACROC Northern Platform CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Permian Basin, Scurry County, TX, (2) Pump Canyon CO{sub 2}-ECBM Site in the San Juan Basin, San Juan County, NM, and (3) Farnsworth Unit CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Anadarko Basin, Ochiltree County, TX. The sites were sufficiently different from each other to test the robustness of the QFMEA model.

  2. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Naturita, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-01

    The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (phase I), and the Ground Water Project (phase II). For the UMTRA Project site located near Naturita, Colorado (the Naturita site), phase I involves the removal of radioactively contaminated soils and materials and their transportation to a disposal site at Union Carbide Corporation`s Upper Burbank Repository at Uravan, Colorado, about 13 road miles (mi) (21 kilometers [km]) to the northwest. No uranium mill tailings are involved because the tailings were removed from the Naturita site and placed at Coke Oven, Colorado, during 1977 to 1979. Phase II of the project will evaluate the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and its effect on human health or the environment; and will determine site-specific ground water compliance strategies in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. Human health risks could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. Environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water, or surface water that has received contaminated ground water. Therefore, a risk assessment is conducted for the Naturita site. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Naturita site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment.

  3. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elcock, D.

    1998-03-05

    In 1996, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted a preliminary technical and legal evaluation of disposing of nonhazardous oil-field wastes (NOW) into salt caverns. Argonne determined that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, Argonne subsequently conducted a preliminary evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in domal salt caverns. Steps used in this evaluation included the following: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing contaminant toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and calculating human cancer and noncancer risk estimates. Five postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (referring to noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results led to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes.

  4. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaeger, Calvin D.; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  5. Automating Risk Assessments of Hazardous Material Shipments for Transportation Routes and Mode Selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbara H. Dolphin; William D. RIchins; Stephen R. Novascone

    2010-10-01

    The METEOR project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) successfully addresses the difficult problem in risk assessment analyses of combining the results from bounding deterministic simulation results with probabilistic (Monte Carlo) risk assessment techniques. This paper describes a software suite designed to perform sensitivity and cost/benefit analyses on selected transportation routes and vehicles to minimize risk associated with the shipment of hazardous materials. METEOR uses Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the probability of an accidental release of a hazardous substance along a proposed transportation route. A METEOR user selects the mode of transportation, origin and destination points, and charts the route using interactive graphics. Inputs to METEOR (many selections built in) include crash rates for the specific aircraft, soil/rock type and population densities over the proposed route, and bounding limits for potential accident types (velocity, temperature, etc.). New vehicle, materials, and location data are added when available. If the risk estimates are unacceptable, the risks associated with alternate transportation modes or routes can be quickly evaluated and compared. Systematic optimizing methods will provide the user with the route and vehicle selection identified with the lowest risk of hazardous material release. The effects of a selected range of potential accidents such as vehicle impact, fire, fuel explosions, excessive containment pressure, flooding, etc. are evaluated primarily using hydrocodes capable of accurately simulating the material response of critical containment components. Bounding conditions that represent credible accidents (i.e; for an impact event, velocity, orientations, and soil conditions) are used as input parameters to the hydrocode models yielding correlation functions relating accident parameters to component damage. The Monte Carlo algorithms use random number generators to make selections at the various decision points such as; crash, location, etc. For each pass through the routines, when a crash is randomly selected, crash parameters are then used to determine if failure has occurred using either external look up tables, correlations functions from deterministic calculations, or built in data libraries. The effectiveness of the software was recently demonstrated in safety analyses of the transportation of radioisotope systems for the US Dept. of Energy. These methods are readily adaptable to estimating risks associated with a variety of hazardous shipments such as spent nuclear fuel, explosives, and chemicals.

  6. Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

    1990-11-09

    FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG&G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort.

  7. Developing guidelines for improved assessment of risk to environmental receptors in NEPA documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cunningham, M.; Abbott, L.; Berger, J.

    1995-12-01

    NAEP`s NEPA Practice Committee has formed several subcommittees to develop guidelines, and ultimately standards, for conducting various analyses to meet the letter and spirit of NEPA. The authors comprise the Ecological Risk Assessment Subcommittee, and our purpose is to identify those aspects of ecological risk assessment of potentially greatest use in analyses for NEPA documents and to make this information available to NAEP members and other NEPA practioners. Our task is to identify procedures and techniques commonly used in ecological risk assessment for CERCLA and RCRA compliance that are useful directly, or in modified form, to improve the estimation of risk to environmental receptors in NEPA analyses. Environmental receptors include biota and media such as air and water. Our approach is to focus first on the practical aspects of environmental assessment for NEPA that we identify as needing improvement. These include: (1) knowing when a quantitative risk assessment is warranted; (2) assigning significance of potential harm; (3) how to assess cumulative risk; (4) how to cope with missing information and knowing when surrogate information is available and appropriate to use; (5) efficiency in analysis - lack of explicit screening steps; and (6) biodiversity-related effects assessment. Specific steps to help environmental professionals prepare NEPA documents to address these issues will be presented, including references to NEPA documents that employ explicit risk estimation.

  8. Appendices and Risk Assessment Spreadsheet Version No. Fermi...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The lead engineer will determine the degree of oversight you will need using a risk-based graded approach. On other occasions you will do design work as a member of a...

  9. NPH Risk Assessment and Mitigation of a SRS Facility for the Safe Storage of Tritium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joshi, J.R.; Griffin, M.J.; Bjorkman, G.S.

    1995-10-18

    Because of the reduction in the nation`s stockpile of weapon systems a large amount of tritium is being returned to the Savannah River Site in Aiken, SC. Due to the increased quantity of tritium returning to SRS, the SRS Tritium Facility was tasked to determine the most cost effective means to safely store the tritium gas in a short period of time. This paper presents results of the risk assessment developed to evaluate the safe storage of tritium at SRS, and highlights the structural design of the HIVES used as the cost-effective short term NPH mitigation solution.

  10. RESRAD for Radiological Risk Assessment. Comparison with EPA CERCLA Tools - PRG and DCC Calculators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, C.; Cheng, J. -J.; Kamboj, S.

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this report is two-fold. First, the risk assessment methodology for both RESRAD and the EPA’s tools is reviewed. This includes a review of the EPA’s justification for 2 using a dose-to-risk conversion factor to reduce the dose-based protective ARAR from 15 to 12 mrem/yr. Second, the models and parameters used in RESRAD and the EPA PRG and DCC Calculators are compared in detail, and the results are summarized and discussed. Although there are suites of software tools in the RESRAD family of codes and the EPA Calculators, the scope of this report is limited to the RESRAD (onsite) code for soil contamination and the EPA’s PRG and DCC Calculators also for soil contamination.

  11. Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benner, W. Henry (Danville, CA); Krauss, Ronald M. (Berkeley, CA); Blanche, Patricia J. (Berkeley, CA)

    2010-12-14

    A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

  12. Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    CoP) Charter | Department of Energy Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Charter Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Charter Charter for the Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) whose goal is to foster exchange of information regarding preparation of P&RAs across agencies and practitioners; enhance consistency in the preparation of P&RAs across the

  13. List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Practice (P&RA CoP) Discussion | Department of Energy List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Discussion List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Discussion List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Discussion PDF icon List of Topics - February 24, 2016 More Documents & Publications Status Updates on the

  14. Recent advances in the risk assessment of melamine and cyanuric acid in animal feed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorne, Jean Lou; Vandenbroeck, Marc; Mennes, Wim; Knutsen, Helle K.; Vernazza, Francesco; Edler, Lutz; Benford, Diane

    2013-08-01

    Melamine can be present at low levels in food and feed mostly from its legal use as a food contact material in laminates and plastics, as a trace contaminant in nitrogen supplements used in animal feeds, and as a metabolite of the pesticide cyromazine. The mechanism of toxicity of melamine involves dose-dependent formation of crystals with either endogenous uric acid or a structural analogue of melamine, cyanuric acid, in renal tubules resulting in potential acute kidney failure. Co-exposure to melamine and cyanuric acid in livestock, fish, pets and laboratory animals shows higher toxicity compared with melamine or cyanuric acid alone. Evidence for crystal formation between melamine and other structural analogs i.e. ammelide and ammeline is limited. Illegal pet food adulterations with melamine and cyanuric acid and adulteration of milk with melamine resulted in melaminecyanuric acid crystals, kidney damage and deaths of cats and dogs and melamineuric acid stones, hospitalisation and deaths of children in China respectively. Following these incidents, the tolerable daily intake for melamine was re-evaluated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the World Health Organisation, and the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This review provides an overview of toxicology, the adulteration incidents and risk assessments for melamine and its structural analogues. Particular focus is given to the recent EFSA risk assessment addressing impacts on animal and human health of background levels of melamine and structural analogues in animal feed. Recent research and future directions are discussed. - Highlights: ? Melamine in food and feed. ? Forms crystals in kidney with uric acid or cyanuric acid. ? Toxicity higher with cyanuric acid. ? Recent EFSA risk assessment. ? Animal and human health.

  15. Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singleton, Kristin M.

    2015-01-07

    The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C under the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO). A baseline risk assessment (BRA) of current conditions is based on available characterization data and information collected at WMA C. The baseline risk assessment is being developed as a part of a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) at WMA C that is mandatory under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and RCRA corrective action. The RFI/CMS is needed to identify and evaluate the hazardous chemical and radiological contamination in the vadose zone from past releases of waste from WMA C. WMA C will be under Federal ownership and control for the foreseeable future, and managed as an industrial area with restricted access and various institutional controls. The exposure scenarios evaluated under these conditions include Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) Method C, industrial worker, maintenance and surveillance worker, construction worker, and trespasser scenarios. The BRA evaluates several unrestricted land use scenarios (residential all-pathway, MTCA Method B, and Tribal) to provide additional information for risk management. Analytical results from 13 shallow zone (0 to 15 ft. below ground surface) sampling locations were collected to evaluate human health impacts at WMA C. In addition, soil analytical data were screened against background concentrations and ecological soil screening levels to determine if soil concentrations have the potential to adversely affect ecological receptors. Analytical data from 12 groundwater monitoring wells were evaluated between 2004 and 2013. A screening of groundwater monitoring data against background concentrations and Federal maximum concentration levels was used to determine vadose zone contamination impacts on groundwater. Waste Management Area C is the first of the Hanford tank farms to begin the closure planning process. The current baseline risk assessment will provide valuable information for making corrective actions and closure decisions for WMA C, and will also support the planning for future tank farm soil investigation and baseline risk assessments.

  16. Contents of risk assessments to support the retrieval and closure of tanks for the Washington State Department of Ecology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F.M.

    2003-03-21

    Before the Integrated Mission Acceleration Plan can be performed, risk assessments of various options must be performed for ORP, DOE Headquarters, and the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This document focuses on the risk assessments for Ecology.

  17. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  18. Assessing Equivalent Viscous Damping Using Piping System test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nie, J.; Morante, R.

    2010-07-18

    The specification of damping for nuclear piping systems subject to seismic-induced motions has been the subject of many studies and much controversy. Damping estimation based on test data can be influenced by numerous factors, consequently leading to considerable scatter in damping estimates in the literature. At present, nuclear industry recommendations and nuclear regulatory guidance are not consistent on the treatment of damping for analysis of nuclear piping systems. Therefore, there is still a need to develop a more complete and consistent technical basis for specification of appropriate damping values for use in design and analysis. This paper summarizes the results of recent damping studies conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory.

  19. Memorandum, Department of Energy Standard for Control and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The purpose of this memorandum is to distribute for interim use and comment a new draft Department of Energy (DOE) Technical Standard for Control and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments.

  20. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This technical update provides guidance to utilities on developing and implementing a risk assessment process using the failure scenarios developed by the National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource (NESCOR) program.

  1. Risk Assessment Technical Expert Working Group (RWG)Conference Call Minutes, May 6, 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Risk Assessment Information Notice (IN): HSS provided the draft IN to safety basis experts fromSNL, Y-12 and PNNL for their review and comment. Their comments were addressed and the IN isback into...

  2. Risk Assessment Technical Expert Working Group (RWG) Conference Call Minutes, March 8, 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group Charter – The steeringcommittee discussed the draft charter. Two recommended changes were agreed upon:• A sentence will be added to identify that the...

  3. Risk Assessment Technical Expert Working Group (RWG)Conference Call Minutes, February 20, 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group Charter – discussed whoshould sign and at what level the charter should be authorized. It was concluded thatthe Under Secretaries as the Central...

  4. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  5. Adaptive Sampling Algorithms for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diego Mandelli; Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Valerio Pascucci; Peer-Timo Bremer

    2013-09-01

    Nuclear simulations are often computationally expensive, time-consuming, and high-dimensional with respect to the number of input parameters. Thus exploring the space of all possible simulation outcomes is infeasible using finite computing resources. During simulation-based probabilistic risk analysis, it is important to discover the relationship between a potentially large number of input parameters and the output of a simulation using as few simulation trials as possible. This is a typical context for performing adaptive sampling where a few observations are obtained from the simulation, a surrogate model is built to represent the simulation space, and new samples are selected based on the model constructed. The surrogate model is then updated based on the simulation results of the sampled points. In this way, we attempt to gain the most information possible with a small number of carefully selected sampled points, limiting the number of expensive trials needed to understand features of the simulation space. We analyze the specific use case of identifying the limit surface, i.e., the boundaries in the simulation space between system failure and system success. In this study, we explore several techniques for adaptively sampling the parameter space in order to reconstruct the limit surface. We focus on several adaptive sampling schemes. First, we seek to learn a global model of the entire simulation space using prediction models or neighborhood graphs and extract the limit surface as an iso-surface of the global model. Second, we estimate the limit surface by sampling in the neighborhood of the current estimate based on topological segmentations obtained locally. Our techniques draw inspirations from topological structure known as the Morse-Smale complex. We highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using a global prediction model versus local topological view of the simulation space, comparing several different strategies for adaptive sampling in both contexts. One of the most interesting models we propose attempt to marry the two by obtaining a coarse global representation using prediction models, and a detailed local representation based on topology. Our methods are validated on several analytical test functions as well as a small nuclear simulation dataset modeled after a simplified Pressurized Water Reactor.

  6. Radiological Risk Assessment for King County Wastewater Treatment Division

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2005-08-05

    Staff of the King County Wastewater Treatment Division (WTD) have concern about the aftermath of a radiological dispersion event (RDE) leading to the introduction of significant quantities of radioactive material into the combined sanitary and storm sewer system in King County, Washington. Radioactive material could come from the use of a radiological dispersion device (RDD). RDDs include "dirty bombs" that are not nuclear detonations but are explosives designed to spread radioactive material (National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) 2001). Radioactive material also could come from deliberate introduction or dispersion of radioactive material into the environment, including waterways and water supply systems. This document develops plausible and/or likely scenarios, including the identification of likely radioactive materials and quantities of those radioactive materials to be involved. These include 60Co, 90Sr, 137Cs, 192Ir, 226Ra, plutonium, and 241Am. Two broad categories of scenarios are considered. The first category includes events that may be suspected from the outset, such as an explosion of a "dirty bomb" in downtown Seattle. The explosion would most likely be heard, but the type of explosion (e.g., sewer methane gas or RDD) may not be immediately known. Emergency first responders must be able to quickly detect the radioisotopes previously listed, assess the situation, and deploy a response to contain and mitigate (if possible) detrimental effects resulting from the incident. In such scenarios, advance notice of about an hour or two might be available before any contaminated wastewater reaches a treatment plant. The second category includes events that could go initially undetected by emergency personnel. Examples of such a scenario would be the inadvertent or surreptitious introduction of radioactive material into the sewer system. Intact rogue radioactive sources from industrial radiography devices, well-logging apparatus, or moisture density gages may get into wastewater and be carried to a treatment plant. Other scenarios might include a terrorist deliberately putting a dispersible radioactive material into wastewater. Alternatively, a botched terrorism preparation of an RDD may result in radioactive material entering wastewater without anyone's knowledge. Drinking water supplies may also be contaminated, with the result that some or most of the radioactivity ends up in wastewater.

  7. Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-06-08

    Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

  8. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR] (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR] Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR] × You are accessing a document from the

  9. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants - Final Technical Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley; Golay, Michael; Duran, Felicia; Galyean, William; Gupta, Abhinav; Dimitrijevic, Vesna; Malsch, Marty

    2003-01-29

    OAK B188 Summary of methods proposed for risk informing the design and regulation of future nuclear power plants. All elements of the historical design and regulation process are preserved, but the methods proposed for new plants use probabilistic risk assessment methods as the primary decision making tool.

  10. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elcock, D.

    1998-03-10

    Salt caverns can be formed in underground salt formations incidentally as a result of mining or intentionally to create underground chambers for product storage or waste disposal. For more than 50 years, salt caverns have been used to store hydrocarbon products. Recently, concerns over the costs and environmental effects of land disposal and incineration have sparked interest in using salt caverns for waste disposal. Countries using or considering using salt caverns for waste disposal include Canada (oil-production wastes), Mexico (purged sulfates from salt evaporators), Germany (contaminated soils and ashes), the United Kingdom (organic residues), and the Netherlands (brine purification wastes). In the US, industry and the regulatory community are pursuing the use of salt caverns for disposal of oil-field wastes. In 1988, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a regulatory determination exempting wastes generated during oil and gas exploration and production (oil-field wastes) from federal hazardous waste regulations--even though such wastes may contain hazardous constituents. At the same time, EPA urged states to tighten their oil-field waste management regulations. The resulting restrictions have generated industry interest in the use of salt caverns for potentially economical and environmentally safe oil-field waste disposal. Before the practice can be implemented commercially, however, regulators need assurance that disposing of oil-field wastes in salt caverns is technically and legally feasible and that potential health effects associated with the practice are acceptable. In 1996, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted a preliminary technical and legal evaluation of disposing of nonhazardous oil-field wastes (NOW) into salt caverns. It investigated regulatory issues; the types of oil-field wastes suitable for cavern disposal; cavern design and location considerations; and disposal operations, closure and remediation issues. It determined that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could, from technical and legal perspectives, be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, ANL subsequently conducted a preliminary risk assessment on the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in salt caverns. The methodology for the risk assessment included the following steps: identifying potential contaminants of concern; determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants; assessing contaminant toxicities; estimating contaminant intakes; and estimating human cancer and noncancer risks. To estimate exposure routes and pathways, four postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (for noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the EPA target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results lead to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes.

  11. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Nevada Test Site (NTS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daniels, J.I.

    1993-06-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is located in southwestern Nevada, about 105 km (65 mi) northwest of the city of Las Vegas. A series of tests was conducted in the late 1950s and early 1960s at or near the NTS to study issues involving plutonium-bearing devices. These tests resulted in the dispersal of about 5 TBq of [sup 239,24O]Pu on the surficial soils at the test locations. Additionally, underground tests of nuclear weapons devices have been conducted at the NTS since late 1962; ground water beneath the NTS has been contaminated with radionuclides produced by these tests. These two important problems have been selected for assessment. Regarding the plutonium contamination, because the residual [sup 239]Pu decays slowly (half-life of 24,110 y), these sites could represent a long-term hazard if they are not remediated and if institutional controls are lost. To investigate the magnitude of the potential health risks for this no-remediation case, three basic exposure scenarios were defined that could bring individuals in contact with [sup 239,24O]Pu at the sites: (1) a resident living in a subdivision, (2) a resident farmer, and (3) a worker at a commercial facility -- all located at a test site. The predicted cancer risks for the resident farmer were more than a factor of three times higher than the suburban resident at the median risk level, and about a factor of ten greater than the reference worker at a commercial facility. At 100 y from the present, the 5, 50, and 95th percentile risks for the resident farmer at the most contaminated site were 4 x 10[sup [minus]6], 6 x 10[sup [minus]5], and 5 x 10[sup [minus]4], respectively. For the assessment of Pu in surface soil, the principal sources of uncertainty in the estimated risks were population mobility, the relationship between indoor and outdoor contaminant levels, and the dose and risk factors for bone, liver, and lung.

  12. Technical Needs for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Equipment Condition Assessment for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Berglin, Eric J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.

    2013-04-04

    Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can provide the United States with a safe, sustainable, and carbon-neutral energy source. The controllable day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operation and maintenance costs. Health and condition assessment coupled with online risk monitors can potentially enhance affordability of aSMRs through optimized operational planning and maintenance scheduling. Currently deployed risk monitors are an extension of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For complex engineered systems like nuclear power plants, PRA systematically combines event likelihoods and the probability of failure (POF) of key components, so that when combined with the magnitude of possible adverse consequences to determine risk. Traditional PRA uses population-based POF information to estimate the average plant risk over time. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a PRA that reflects the as-operated, as-modified plant; this model is updated periodically, typically once a year. Risk monitors expand on living PRA by incorporating changes in the day-by-day plant operation and configuration (e.g., changes in equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions). However, population-based POF (or population- and time-based POF) is still used to populate fault trees. Health monitoring techniques can be used to establish condition indicators and monitoring capabilities that indicate the component-specific POF at a desired point in time (or over a desired period), which can then be incorporated in the risk monitor to provide a more accurate estimate of the plant risk in different configurations. This is particularly important for active systems, structures, and components (SSCs) proposed for use in aSMR designs. These SSCs may differ significantly from those used in the operating fleet of light-water reactors (or even in LWR-based SMR designs). Additionally, the operating characteristics of aSMRs can present significantly different requirements, including the need to operate in different coolant environments, higher operating temperatures, and longer operating cycles between planned refueling and maintenance outages. These features, along with the relative lack of operating experience for some of the proposed advanced designs, may limit the ability to estimate event probability and component POF with a high degree of certainty. Incorporating real-time estimates of component POF may compensate for a relative lack of established knowledge about the long-term component behavior and improve operational and maintenance planning and optimization. The particular eccentricities of advanced reactors and small modular reactors provide unique challenges and needs for advanced instrumentation, control, and human-machine interface (ICHMI) techniques such as enhanced risk monitors (ERM) in aSMRs. Several features of aSMR designs increase the need for accurate characterization of the real-time risk during operation and maintenance activities. A number of technical gaps in realizing ERM exist, and these gaps are largely independent of the specific reactor technology. As a result, the development of a framework for ERM would enable greater situational awareness regardless of the specific class of reactor technology. A set of research tasks are identified in a preliminary research plan to enable the development, testing, and demonstration of such a framework. Although some aspects of aSMRs, such as specific operational characteristics, will vary and are not now completely defined, the proposed framework is expected to be relevant regardless of such uncertainty. The development of an ERM framework will provide one of the key technical developments necessary to ensure the economic viability of aSMRs.

  13. EPa`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Exposure issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callahan, M.A.

    1990-12-31

    Three major issues to be dealt with over the next ten years in the exposure assessment field are: consistency in terminology, the impact of computer technology on the choice of data and modeling, and conceptual issues such as the use of time-weighted averages.

  14. Depleted uranium human health risk assessment, Jefferson Proving Ground, Indiana

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Hansen, W.R.

    1994-04-29

    The risk to human health from fragments of depleted uranium (DU) at Jefferson Proving Ground (JPG) was estimated using two types of ecosystem pathway models. A steady-state, model of the JPG area was developed to examine the effects of DU in soils, water, and vegetation on deer that were hunted and consumed by humans. The RESRAD code was also used to estimate the effects of farming the impact area and consuming the products derived from the farm. The steady-state model showed that minimal doses to humans are expected from consumption of deer that inhabit the impact area. Median values for doses to humans range from about 1 mrem ({plus_minus}2.4) to 0.04 mrem ({plus_minus}0.13) and translate to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments (excess cancers) in the population. Monte Carlo simulation of the steady-state model was used to derive the probability distributions from which the median values were drawn. Sensitivity analyses of the steady-state model showed that the amount of DU in airborne dust and, therefore, the amount of DU on the vegetation surface, controlled the amount of DU ingested by deer and by humans. Human doses from the RESRAD estimates ranged from less than 1 mrem/y to about 6.5 mrem/y in a hunting scenario and subsistence fanning scenario, respectively. The human doses exceeded the 100 mrem/y dose limit when drinking water for the farming scenario was obtained from the on-site aquifer that was presumably contaminated with DU. The two farming scenarios were unrealistic land uses because the additional risk to humans due to unexploded ordnance in the impact area was not figured into the risk estimate. The doses estimated with RESRAD translated to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments to about 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} detriments. The higher risks were associated only with the farming scenario in which drinking water was obtained on-site.

  15. Use of information resources by the state of Tennessee in risk assessment applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bashor, B.S.

    1990-12-31

    The major resources used by the Bureau of Environment, and Environmental Epidemiology (EEP) for risk assessment are: the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health and Environmental Effects Summary Table (HEAST), Agency for Toxic Substances and disease Registry (ATSDR) Toxicological Profiles, databases at the National Library of Medicine (NLM), World Health Organization (WHO) ENvironmental Criteria, and documents that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published on Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) risk assessment activities. The Risk Assessment Review has been helpful in providing information about availability of new documents or information. No systematic method has been made available to us to locate information resources. IRIS User`s Support has been helpful in making appropriate and timely referrals. Most other EPA resources were located by serendipity and persistence. The CERCLA methodology for risk assessments is being used in environmental programs, and at present, one person is responsible for all risk assessment activities in the department, but plans are underway to train one or two people from each program area. 2 figs.

  16. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  17. How information resources are used by federal agencies in risk assessment application: Rapporteur summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fenner-Crisp, P.

    1990-12-31

    The application of information available for risk assessment from the federal perspective is described. Different federal agencies conduct varying degrees of hazard evaluation, and some also generate empirical data. The role of the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry in hazard assessments of potential public health impacts of Superfund sites includes identification of the 275 most significant substances. ATSDR is responsible for preparing toxicological profiles. ATSDR also identifies data gaps and needs critical to adequately assessing human health impacts.

  18. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  19. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  20. Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  1. RAVEN and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Software overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andrea Alfonsi; Cristian Rabiti; Diego Mandelli; Joshua Cogliati; Robert Kinoshita; Antonio Naviglio

    2014-09-01

    RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 [], currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism has been employed by providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response, investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper presents an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by some application examples.

  2. Leakage risk assessment of the In Salah CO2 storage project: Applying the Certification Framework in a dynamic context.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, C.M.; Jordan, P.D.; Nicot, J.-P.; Mazzoldi, A.; Gupta, A.K.; Bryant, S.L.

    2010-08-01

    The Certification Framework (CF) is a simple risk assessment approach for evaluating CO{sub 2} and brine leakage risk at geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites. In the In Salah CO{sub 2} storage project assessed here, five wells at Krechba produce natural gas from the Carboniferous C10.2 reservoir with 1.7-2% CO{sub 2} that is delivered to the Krechba gas processing plant, which also receives high-CO{sub 2} natural gas ({approx}10% by mole fraction) from additional deeper gas reservoirs and fields to the south. The gas processing plant strips CO{sub 2} from the natural gas that is then injected through three long horizontal wells into the water leg of the Carboniferous gas reservoir at a depth of approximately 1,800 m. This injection process has been going on successfully since 2004. The stored CO{sub 2} has been monitored over the last five years by a Joint Industry Project (JIP) - a collaboration of BP, Sonatrach, and Statoil with co-funding from US DOE and EU DG Research. Over the years the JIP has carried out extensive analyses of the Krechba system including two risk assessment efforts, one before injection started, and one carried out by URS Corporation in September 2008. The long history of injection at Krechba, and the accompanying characterization, modeling, and performance data provide a unique opportunity to test and evaluate risk assessment approaches. We apply the CF to the In Salah CO{sub 2} storage project at two different stages in the state of knowledge of the project: (1) at the pre-injection stage, using data available just prior to injection around mid-2004; and (2) after four years of injection (September 2008) to be comparable to the other risk assessments. The main risk drivers for the project are CO{sub 2} leakage into potable groundwater and into the natural gas cap. Both well leakage and fault/fracture leakage are likely under some conditions, but overall the risk is low due to ongoing mitigation and monitoring activities. Results of the application of the CF during these different state-of-knowledge periods show that the assessment of likelihood of various leakage scenarios increased as more information became available, while assessment of impact stayed the same. Ongoing mitigation, modeling, and monitoring of the injection process is recommended.

  3. Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Technical Exchange Meeting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith

    2013-09-01

    During FY13, the INL developed an advanced SMR PRA framework which has been described in the report Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Technical Framework Specification, INL/EXT-13-28974 (April 2013). In this framework, the various areas are considered: Probabilistic models to provide information specific to advanced SMRs Representation of specific SMR design issues such as having co-located modules and passive safety features Use of modern open-source and readily available analysis methods Internal and external events resulting in impacts to safety All-hazards considerations Methods to support the identification of design vulnerabilities Mechanistic and probabilistic data needs to support modeling and tools In order to describe this framework more fully and obtain feedback on the proposed approaches, the INL hosted a technical exchange meeting during August 2013. This report describes the outcomes of that meeting.

  4. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  5. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... PNNL researchers are continuing to refine the model, improving the realism of ship routing and encounters. The preliminary study results indicate that the presence of wind farms on ...

  6. Risk Assessment of Geologic Formation Sequestration in The Rocky Mountain Region, USA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian

    2013-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the outcome of a targeted risk assessment of a candidate geologic sequestration site in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. Specifically, a major goal of the probabilistic risk assessment was to quantify the possible spatiotemporal responses for Area of Review (AoR) and injection-induced pressure buildup associated with carbon dioxide (CO?) injection into the subsurface. Because of the computational expense of a conventional Monte Carlo approach, especially given the likely uncertainties in model parameters, we applied a response surface method for probabilistic risk assessment of geologic CO? storage in the Permo-Penn Weber formation at a potential CCS site in Craig, Colorado. A site-specific aquifer model was built for the numerical simulation based on a regional geologic model.

  7. A Program for Risk Assessment Associated with IGSCC of BWR Vessel Internals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. G. Ware; D. K. Morton; J. D. Page; M. E. Nitzel; S. A. Eide; T. -Y. Chang

    1999-08-01

    A program is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), to conduct an independent risk assessment of the consequences of failures initiated by intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) of the reactor vessel internals of boiling water reactor (BWR) plants. The overall project objective is to assess the potential consequences and risks associated with the failure of IGSCC-susceptible BWR vessel internals, both singly and in combination with the failures of others, with specific consideration given to potential cascading and common mode effects on system performance. This paper presents a description of the overall program that is underway to modify an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the BWR/4 plant to include IGSCC-initiated failures, subsequently to complete a quantitative PRA.

  8. Appendix F Human Health Risk Assessment Document Number Q0029500 Appendix F

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Human Health Risk Assessment Document Number Q0029500 Appendix F This appendix presents the detailed calculations used to estimate risks to human health. It includes the exposure factors, equations, abbreviations, assumptions, and references. Separate spreadsheets for ground water ingestion for the near-term and 20-year assumptio~ls have also been provided. The following spreadsheets are included in this appendix: Overview (Exposure Factors, Equations, Abbreviations, and COPCs)

  9. DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment: FY12 Plans Update

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadasivan, Pratap

    2012-06-21

    This presentation provides background information on FY12 plans for the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment program. Program plans, organization, and individual project elements are described. Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism - Goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D program planning.

  10. INTERAGENCY PERFORMANCE AND RISK ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE (P&RA CoP)

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    October 13, 2015, Tuesday, 2:00 am to 3:00 pm EDT Agenda 2:00 - 2:05 am Introduction (Dr. Ming Zhu, DOE EM) 2:05 am - 2:55 pm Presentation - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach (PRG and DSS Calculators) (Mr. Stuart Walker, EPA). Time will be allotted for questions and comments during the presentation. 2:55 - 3:00 pm Closing (Dr. Ming Zhu, DOE EM) Webinar Instructions Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice Webinar Tuesday, October 13, 2015 2:00 pm | Eastern Daylight Time (New

  11. Assessing the Changes In Safety Risk Arising From the Use of Natural Gas

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure For Mixtures of Hydrogen and Natural Gas | Department of Energy Assessing the Changes In Safety Risk Arising From the Use of Natural Gas Infrastructure For Mixtures of Hydrogen and Natural Gas Assessing the Changes In Safety Risk Arising From the Use of Natural Gas Infrastructure For Mixtures of Hydrogen and Natural Gas Presentation by 07-Hankinson to DOE Hydrogen Pipeline R&D Project Review Meeting held January 5-6, 2005 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge,

  12. Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    (P&RA CoP) | Department of Energy Practice (P&RA CoP) Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Ming Zhu, Ph.D., PE, PMP Chair of P&RA CoP P&RA CoP Technical Exchange Meeting Las Vegas, NV December 11-12, 2014 To view all the P&RA CoP 2014 Technical Exchange Meeting videos click here. Video Presentation PDF icon Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice More Documents & Publications

  13. Risk assessment for Industrial Control Systems quantifying availability using mean failure cost (MFC)

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chen, Qian; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

    2015-09-23

    Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are commonly used in industries such as oil and natural gas, transportation, electric, water and wastewater, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, food and beverage, as well as discrete manufacturing (e.g., automotive, aerospace, and durable goods.) SCADA systems are generally used to control dispersed assets using centralized data acquisition and supervisory control. Originally, ICS implementations were susceptible primarily to local threats because most of their components were located in physically secure areas (i.e., ICS components were not connected to IT networks or systems). The trend toward integrating ICS systems with IT networks (e.g., efficiency and the Internetmore » of Things) provides significantly less isolation for ICS from the outside world thus creating greater risk due to external threats. Albeit, the availability of ICS/SCADA systems is critical to assuring safety, security and profitability. Such systems form the backbone of our national cyber-physical infrastructure. We extend the concept of mean failure cost (MFC) to address quantifying availability to harmonize well with ICS security risk assessment. This new measure is based on the classic formulation of Availability combined with Mean Failure Cost (MFC). The metric offers a computational basis to estimate the availability of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security violations or breakdowns (e.g., deliberate malicious failures).« less

  14. Quantitative assessment of landslide risk in design practice

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Romanov, A.M.; Darevskii, V.E.

    1995-03-01

    Developments of the State Institute for River Transport Protection, which are directed toward practical implementation of an engineering method recommended by regulatory documents for calculation of landslide phenomena, are cited; the potential of operating computer software is demonstrated. Results of calculations are compared with test data, and also with problems solved in the new developments.

  15. Access and use of information resources in assessing health risks from chemical exposure: Proceedings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-12-31

    Health risk assessment is based on access to comprehensive information about potentially hazardous agents in question. Relevant information is scattered throughout the literature, and often is not readily accessible. To be useful in assessment efforts, emerging scientific findings, risk assess parameters, and associated data must be compiled and evaluated systemically. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are among the federal agencies heavily involved in this effort. This symposium was a direct response by EPA and ORNL to the expressed needs of individuals involved in assessing risks from chemical exposure. In an effort to examine the state of the risk assessment process, the availability of toxicological information, and the future development and transfer of this information, the symposium provided an excellent cadre of speakers and participants from state and federal agencies, academia and research laboratories to address these topics. This stimulating and productive gathering discussed concerns associated with (1) environmental contamination by chemicals; (2) laws regulating chemicals; (3) information needs and resources; (4) applications; (5) challenges and priorities; and (6)future issues. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 1: PRA fundamentals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Breeding, R J; Leahy, T J; Young, J

    1985-08-01

    The full range of PRA topics is presented, with a special emphasis on systems analysis and PRA applications. Systems analysis topics include system modeling such as fault tree and event tree construction, failure rate data, and human Reliability. The discussion of PRA applications is centered on past and present PRA based programs, such as WASH-1400 and the Interim Reliability Evaluation Program, as well as on some of the potential future applications of PRA. The relationship of PRA to generic safety issues such as station blackout and Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) is also discussed. In addition to system modeling, the major PRA tasks of accident process analysis, and consequence analysis are presented. An explanation of the results of these activities, and the techniques by which these results are derived, forms the basis for a discussion of these topics. An additional topic which is presented in this course is the topic of PRA management, organization, and evaluation. 84 figs., 41 tabs.

  17. Eielson Air Force Base Operable Unit 2 baseline risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewis, R.E.; Jarvis, T.T.; Jarvis, M.R.; Whelan, G.

    1994-10-01

    Operable Unit 2 at Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) near Fairbanks, is one of several operable units characterized by petroleum, oil, and lubricant contamination, and by the presence of organic products floating at the water table, as a result of Air Force operations since the 1940s. The base is approximately 19,270 acres in size, and comprises the areas for military operations and a residential neighborhood for military dependents. Within Operable Unit 2, there are seven source areas. These source areas were grouped together primarily because of the contaminants released and hence are not necessarily in geographical proximity. Source area ST10 includes a surface water body (Hardfill Lake) next to a fuel spill area. The primary constituents of concern for human health include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX). Monitored data showed these volatile constituents to be present in groundwater wells. The data also showed an elevated level of trace metals in groundwater.

  18. Cover Memorandum for new Department of Energy Standard for Control and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments, 1/18/11

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This Standard provides guidance and criteria for a standard approach to utlilization of probabilistic risk assessments in nuclear safety applications. This interim Standard was developed by a team...

  19. RCRA Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation Report with the Baseline Risk Assessment for the 716-A Motor Shops Seepage Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Palmer, E.

    1997-08-25

    This document describes the RCRA Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation/Baseline Risk Assessment of the 716-A Motor Shops Seepage Basin.

  20. Accounting for uncertainty and risk in assessments of impacts for offshore oil and gas leasing proposals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wildermann, R.; Beittel, R. )

    1993-01-01

    The Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the US Department of the Interior prepares an environmental impact statement (EIS) for each proposal to lease a portion of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for oil and gas exploration and development. The nature, magnitude, and timing of the activities that would ultimately result from leasing are subject to wide speculation, primarily because of uncertainties about the locations and amounts of petroleum hydrocarbons that exist on most potential leases. These uncertainties create challenges in preparing EIS's that meet National Environmental Policy Act requirements and provide information useful to decision-makers. This paper examines the constraints that uncertainty places on the detail and reliability of assessments of impacts from potential OCS development. It further describes how the MMS accounts for uncertainty in developing reasonable scenarios of future events that can be evaluated in the EIS. A process for incorporating the risk of accidental oil spills into assessments of expected impacts is also presented. Finally, the paper demonstrates through examination of case studies how a balance can be achieved between the need for an EIS to present impacts in sufficient detail to allow a meaningful comparison of alternatives and the tendency to push the analysis beyond credible limits.

  1. Baseline risk assessment for groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Monument Valley, Arizona. Draft

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site near Monument Valley, Arizona. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being relocated and stabilized in a disposal cell at Mexican Hat, Utah, through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The tailings removal is planned for completion by spring 1994. After the tailings are removed, groundwater contamination at the site will continue to be evaluated. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Groundwater Project. It will be used to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site.

  2. Risk Assessment supporting the decision on the initial selection of supplemental ILAW technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-09-29

    A risk assessment on the long-term environmental impact of various potential waste forms was conducted at the request of the Hanford Site's Mission Acceleration Initiative Team. These potential waste forms (bulk vitrification, cast stone, and steam reformer) may treat some of the low-activity waste currently planned to be treated at the Waste Treatment Plant.

  3. Baseline Risk Assessment for the F-Area Burning/Rubble Pits and Rubble Pit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Palmer, E.

    1996-03-01

    This document provides an overview of the Savannah River Site (SRS) and a description of the F-Area Burning/Rubble Pits (BRPs) and Rubble Pit (RP) unit. It also describes the objectives and scope of the baseline risk assessment (BRA).

  4. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ? Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ? Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ? Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ? Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  5. Scientific basis for risk assessment and management of uranium mill tailings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    A National Research Council study panel, convened by the Board on Radioactive Waste Management, has examined the scientific basis for risk assessment and management of uranium mill tailings and issued this final report containing a number of recommendations. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the problem. Chapter 2 examines the processes of uranium extraction and the mechanisms by which radionuclides and toxic chemicals contained in the ore can enter the environment. Chapter 3 is devoted to a review of the evidence on health risks associated with radon and its decay products. Chapter 4 provides a consideration of conventional and possible new technical alternatives for tailings management. Chapter 5 explores a number of issues of comparative risk, provides a brief history of uranium mill tailings regulation, and concludes with a discussion of choices that must be made in mill tailing risk management. 211 refs., 30 figs., 27 tabs.

  6. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operators ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  7. Baseline risk assessment for exposure to contaminants at the St. Louis Site, St. Louis, Missouri

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    The St. Louis Site comprises three noncontiguous areas in and near St. Louis, Missouri: the St. Louis Downtown Site (SLDS), the St. Louis Airport Storage Site (SLAPS), and the Latty Avenue Properties. The main site of the Latty Avenue Properties includes the Hazelwood Interim Storage Site (HISS) and the Futura Coatings property, which are located at 9200 Latty Avenue. Contamination at the St. Louis Site is the result of uranium processing and disposal activities that took place from the 1940s through the 1970s. Uranium processing took place at the SLDS from 1942 through 1957. From the 1940s through the 1960s, SLAPS was used as a storage area for residues from the manufacturing operations at SLDS. The materials stored at SLAPS were bought by Continental Mining and Milling Company of Chicago, Illinois, in 1966, and moved to the HISS/Futura Coatings property at 9200 Latty Avenue. Vicinity properties became contaminated as a result of transport and movement of the contaminated material among SLDS, SLAPS, and the 9200 Latty Avenue property. This contamination led to the SLAPS, HISS, and Futura Coatings properties being placed on the National Priorities List (NPL) of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the St. Louis Site under its Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The primary goal of FUSRAP is the elimination of potential hazards to human health and the environment at former Manhattan Engineer District/Atomic Energy Commission (MED/AEC) sites so that, to the extent possible, these properties can be released for use without restrictions. To determine and establish cleanup goals for the St. Louis Site, DOE is currently preparing a remedial investigation/feasibility study-environmental impact statement (RI/FS-EIS). This baseline risk assessment (BRA) is a component of the process; it addresses potential risk to human health and the environment associated wi

  8. Produced water discharges to the Gulf of Mexico: Background information for ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; Holtzman, S.; DePhillips, M.P.

    1996-06-01

    This report reviews ecological risk assessment concepts and methods; describes important biological resources in the Gulf of Mexico of potential concern for produced water impacts; and summarizes data available to estimate exposure and effects of produced water discharges. The emphasis is on data relating to produced water discharges in the central and western Gulf of Mexico, especially in Louisiana. Much of the summarized data and cited literature are relevant to assessments of impacts in other regions. Data describing effects on marine and estuarine fishes, mollusks, crustaceans and benthic invertebrates are emphasized. This review is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico. These assessments will provide input to regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the use of appropriate discharge practices.

  9. Assessing the health risks of natural CO2 seeps in Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, J.J.; Wood, R.A.; Haszeldine, R.S.

    2011-10-04

    Industrialized societies which continue to use fossil fuel energy sources are considering adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology to meet carbon emission reduction targets. Deep geological storage of CO2 onshore faces opposition regarding potential health effects of CO2 leakage from storage sites. There is no experience of commercial scale CCS with which to verify predicted risks of engineered storage failure. Studying risk from natural CO2 seeps can guide assessment of potential health risks from leaking onshore CO2 stores. Italy and Sicily are regions of intense natural CO2 degassing from surface seeps. These seeps exhibit a variety of expressions, characteristics (e.g., temperature/ flux), and location environments. Here we quantify historical fatalities from CO2 poisoning using a database of 286 natural CO2 seeps in Italy and Sicily. We find that risk of human death is strongly influenced by seep surface expression, local conditions (e.g., topography and wind speed), CO2 flux, and human behavior. Risk of accidental human death from these CO2 seeps is calculated to be 10-8 year-1 to the exposed population. This value is significantly lower than that of many socially accepted risks. Seepage from future storage sites is modeled to be less than Italian natural flux rates. With appropriate hazard management, health risks from unplanned seepage at onshore storage sites can be adequately minimized.

  10. Advances in exposure and toxicity assessment of particulate matter: An overview of presentations at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gunasekar, Palur G.; Stanek, Lindsay W.

    2011-07-15

    The 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference (TRAC) session on 'Advances in Exposure and Toxicity Assessment of Particulate Matter' was held in April 2009 in West Chester, OH. The goal of this session was to bring together toxicology, geology and risk assessment experts from the Department of Defense and academia to examine issues in exposure assessment and report on recent epidemiological findings of health effects associated with particulate matter (PM) exposure. Important aspects of PM exposure research are to detect and monitor low levels of PM with various chemical compositions and to assess the health risks associated with these exposures. As part of the overall theme, some presenters discussed collection methods for sand and dust from Iraqi and Afghanistan regions, health issues among deployed personnel, and future directions for risk assessment research among these populations. The remaining speakers focused on the toxicity of ultrafine PM and the characterization of aerosols generated during ballistic impacts of tungsten heavy alloys.

  11. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Webster, Mort David

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  12. Review results of a BWR standard plant PRA and an assessment of potential benefits from design modifications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shiu, K.; Hanan, N.; Rubin, M.

    1985-01-01

    Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has participated in the review of the GESSAR II Standard Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One major objective of this review was to utilize the PRA as a tool for investigation of the relative benefits available for incorporation of various proposed modifications to the baseline design. This paper presents the findings of the BNL review and assessment of the impact upon core damage frequency from two suggested design modifications. This work was restricted to consideration of interal events only. Review results indicated that the point estimate core damage frequency of the GESSAR II plant is equal to 2.2 x 10/sup -5//reactor-year for a plant site located within the Mid-Atlantic Area Council Grid (MAAC) and 3.8 x 10/sup -5//reactor-year if the national average loss of offsite power initiator frequency is used.

  13. The Ohio River Valley CO2 Storage Project AEP Mountaineer Plant, West Virginia Numerical Simulation and Risk Assessment Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neeraj Gupta

    2008-03-31

    A series of numerical simulations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injection were conducted as part of a program to assess the potential for geologic sequestration in deep geologic reservoirs (the Rose Run and Copper Ridge formations), at the American Electric Power (AEP) Mountaineer Power Plant outside of New Haven, West Virginia. The simulations were executed using the H{sub 2}O-CO{sub 2}-NaCl operational mode of the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) simulator (White and Oostrom, 2006). The objective of the Rose Run formation modeling was to predict CO{sub 2} injection rates using data from the core analysis conducted on the samples. A systematic screening procedure was applied to the Ohio River Valley CO{sub 2} storage site utilizing the Features, Elements, and Processes (FEP) database for geological storage of CO{sub 2} (Savage et al., 2004). The objective of the screening was to identify potential risk categories for the long-term geological storage of CO{sub 2} at the Mountaineer Power Plant in New Haven, West Virginia. Over 130 FEPs in seven main classes were assessed for the project based on site characterization information gathered in a geological background study, testing in a deep well drilled on the site, and general site conditions. In evaluating the database, it was apparent that many of the items were not applicable to the Mountaineer site based its geologic framework and environmental setting. Nine FEPs were identified for further consideration for the site. These FEPs generally fell into categories related to variations in subsurface geology, well completion materials, and the behavior of CO{sub 2} in the subsurface. Results from the screening were used to provide guidance on injection system design, developing a monitoring program, performing reservoir simulations, and other risk assessment efforts. Initial work indicates that the significant FEPs may be accounted for by focusing the storage program on these potential issues. The screening method was also useful in identifying unnecessary items that were not significant given the site-specific geology and proposed scale of the Ohio River Valley CO{sub 2} Storage Project. Overall, the FEP database approach provides a comprehensive methodology for assessing potential risk for a practical CO{sub 2} storage application. An integrated numerical fate and transport model was developed to enable risk and consequence assessment at field scale. Results show that such an integrated modeling effort would be helpful in meeting the project objectives (such as site characterization, engineering, permitting, monitoring and closure) during different stages. A reservoir-scale numerical model was extended further to develop an integrated assessment framework which can address the risk and consequence assessment, monitoring network design and permitting guidance needs. The method was used to simulate sequestration of CO{sub 2} in moderate quantities at the Mountaineer Power Plant. Results indicate that at the relatively low injection volumes planned for pilot scale demonstration at this site, the risks involved are minor to negligible, owing to a thick, low permeability caprock and overburden zones. Such integrated modeling approaches coupled with risk and consequence assessment modeling are valuable to project implementation, permitting, monitoring as well as site closure.

  14. Integrated Risk Assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant, Phenomenology and Risk Uncertainty Evaluation Program (PRUEP), MELCOR code calculations. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaffer, C.J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Miller, L.A.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1992-10-01

    A Level III Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been performed for LaSalle Unit 2 under the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) and the Phenomenology and Risk Uncertainty Evaluation Program (PRUEP). This report documents the phenomenological calculations and sources of. uncertainty in the calculations performed with HELCOR in support of the Level II portion of the PRA. These calculations are an integral part of the Level II analysis since they provide quantitative input to the Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) and Source Term Model (LASSOR). However, the uncertainty associated with the code results must be considered in the use of the results. The MELCOR calculations performed include four integrated calculations: (1) a high-pressure short-term station blackout, (2) a low-pressure short-term station blackout, (3) an intermediate-term station blackout, and (4) a long-term station blackout. Several sensitivity studies investigating the effect of variations in containment failure size and location, as well as hydrogen ignition concentration are also documented.

  15. Integrated Risk Assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant, Phenomenology and Risk Uncertainty Evaluation Program (PRUEP), MELCOR code calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaffer, C.J. (Science and Engineering Associates, Albuquerque, NM (United States)); Miller, L.A.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1992-10-01

    A Level III Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been performed for LaSalle Unit 2 under the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) and the Phenomenology and Risk Uncertainty Evaluation Program (PRUEP). This report documents the phenomenological calculations and sources of. uncertainty in the calculations performed with HELCOR in support of the Level II portion of the PRA. These calculations are an integral part of the Level II analysis since they provide quantitative input to the Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) and Source Term Model (LASSOR). However, the uncertainty associated with the code results must be considered in the use of the results. The MELCOR calculations performed include four integrated calculations: (1) a high-pressure short-term station blackout, (2) a low-pressure short-term station blackout, (3) an intermediate-term station blackout, and (4) a long-term station blackout. Several sensitivity studies investigating the effect of variations in containment failure size and location, as well as hydrogen ignition concentration are also documented.

  16. Bayesian Inference in Probabilistic Risk Assessment -- The Current State of the Art

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dana L. Kelly; Curtis L. Smith

    2009-02-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches to sampling directly from the joint posterior distribution of aleatory model parameters have led to tremendous advances in Bayesian inference capability in a wide variety of fields, including probabilistic risk analysis. The advent of freely available software coupled with inexpensive computing power has catalyzed this advance. This paper examines where the risk assessment community is with respect to implementing modern computational-based Bayesian approaches to inference. Through a series of examples in different topical areas, it introduces salient concepts and illustrates the practical application of Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to a variety of important problems.

  17. Emerging contaminants: Presentations at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murnyak, George; Vandenberg, John; Yaroschak, Paul J.; Williams, Larry; Prabhakaran, Krishnan; Hinz, John

    2011-07-15

    A session entitled 'Emerging Contaminants' was held in April 2009 in Cincinnati, OH at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference. The purpose of the session was to share information on both programmatic and technical aspects associated with emerging contaminants. Emerging contaminants are chemicals or materials that are characterized by a perceived or real threat to human health or environment, a lack of published health standards or an evolving standard. A contaminant may also be 'emerging' because of the discovery of a new source, a new pathway to humans, or a new detection method or technology. The session included five speakers representing the Department of Defense (DoD), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and each of the military services. The DoD created the Emerging Contaminant Directorate to proactively address environmental, health, and safety concerns associated with emerging contaminants. This session described the scan-watch-action list process, impact assessment methodology, and integrated risk management concept that DoD has implemented to manage emerging contaminants. EPA presented emerging trends in health risk assessment. Researchers made technical presentations on the status of some emerging contaminates in the assessment process (i.e. manganese, RDX, and naphthalene).

  18. Qualitative Risk Assessment for an LNG Refueling Station and Review of Relevant Safety Issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siu, N.; Herring, J.S.; Cadwallader, L.; Reece, W.; Byers, J.

    1998-02-01

    This report is a qualitative assessment of the public and worker risk involved with the operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) vehicle refueling facility. This study includes facility maintenance and operations, tank truck deliveries, and end-use vehicle fueling; it does not treat the risks of LNG vehicles on roadways. Accident initiating events are identified by using a Master Logic Diagram, a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and historical operating experiences. The event trees were drawn to depict possible sequences of mitigating events following the initiating events. The phenomenology of LNG and other vehicle fuels is discussed to characterize the hazard posed by LNG usage. Based on the risk modeling and analysis, recommendations are given to improve the safety of LNG refueling stations in the areas of procedures and training, station design, and the dissemination of ``best practice`` information throughout the LNG community.

  19. Interim qualitative risk assessment for an LNG refueling station and review of relevant safety issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siu, N.; Herring, S.; Cadwallader, L.; Reece, W.; Byers, J.

    1997-07-01

    This report is a qualitative assessment of the public and worker risk involved with the operation of a liquefied natural (LNG) vehicle refueling facility. This study includes facility maintenance and operations, tanker truck delivers and end-use vehicle fueling; it does not treat the risks of LNG vehicles on roadways. Accident initiating events are identified by using a Master Logic Diagram, a Failure Modes and Effects analysis and historical operating experiences. The event trees were drawn to depict possible sequences of mitigating events following the initiating events. The phenomenology of LNG and other vehicle fuels is discussed to characterize the hazard posed by LNG usage. Based on the risk modeling and analysis, recommendations are given to improve the safety of LNG refueling stations in the areas of procedures and training, station design, and the dissemination of best practice information throughout the LNG community.

  20. How information resources are used by state agencies in risk assessment applications - Illinois

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, C.S.

    1990-12-31

    The Environmental Protection Agency of the State of Illinois (Illinois EPA) has programs in water, air, and land pollution and water supplies paralleling those of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The organization is part of a tripartite arrangement in which the Pollution Control Board is the judicial arm, the Department of Energy and Natural Resources is the research arm, and the Illinois EPA is the enforcement arm. Other state agencies are also concerned with various aspects of the environment and may do risk assessments for chemicals. Although there are various risk assessment activities, both formal and informal, in our agency and in others, this paper will discuss only recent initiatives in water quality criteria.

  1. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  2. Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) P&RA CoP's Technical Exchange Meeting held on December 11-12, 2014 in Las Vegas, NV P&RA CoP's Technical Exchange Meeting held on December 11-12, 2014 in Las Vegas, NV P&RA CoP's Technical Exchange Meeting held on December 11-12, 2014 in Las Vegas, NV P&RA CoP's Technical Exchange Meeting held on December 11-12, 2014 in Las

  3. Risk assessment of the retrieval of transuranic waste: Pads 1, 2, and 4, Technical Area-54, Area G, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilbert, K.A.; Lyon, B.F.; Hutchison, J.; Holmes, J.A.; Legg, J.L.; Simek, M.P.; Travis, C.C.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-05-01

    The Risk Assessment for the Retrieval of Transuranic Waste is a comparative risk assessment of the potential adverse human health effects resulting from exposure to contaminants during retrieval and post-retrieval aboveground storage operations of post-1970 earthen-covered transuranic waste. Two alternatives are compared: (1) Immediate Retrieval and (2) Delayed Retrieval. Under the Immediate Retrieval Alternative, retrieval of the waste is assumed to begin immediately, Under the Delayed Retrieval Alternative, retrieval is delayed 10 years. The current risk assessment is on Pads 1, 2, and 4, at Technical Area-54, Area-G, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Risks are assessed independently for three scenarios: (1) incident-free retrieval operations, (2) incident-free storage operations, and (3) a drum failure analysis. The drum failure analysis evaluates container integrity under both alternatives and assesses the impacts of potential drum failures during retrieval operations. Risks associated with a series of drum failures are potentially severe for workers, off-site receptors, and general on-site employees if retrieval is delayed 10 years and administrative and engineering controls remain constant. Under the Delayed Retrieval Alternative, an average of 300 drums out of 16,647 are estimated to fail during retrieval operations due to general corrosion, while minimal drums are predicted to fail under the Immediate Retrieval Alternative. The results of the current study suggest that, based on risk, remediation of Pads 1, 2, and 4 at LANL should not be delayed. Although risks from incident-free operations in the Delayed Retrieval Alternative are low, risks due to corrosion and drum failures are potentially severe.

  4. BASELINE RISK ASSESSMENT OF GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION AT THE URAN~UM MILL TAILINGS

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    I~:-:ii*.i: i,<;.;.-;_r- --:-:ir-- - . . - -. . - . . - , -, . , , , - - - - . BASELINE RISK ASSESSMENT OF GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION AT THE URAN~UM MILL TAILINGS SITE NEAR RIVERTON, WYOMING I i I I I Prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy Albuquerque, New Mexico September 1995 INTENDED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE This report has been reproduced from the best available copy. Avai and microfiche Number of pages in this report: 166 DOE and DOE contractors can obtain copies of this report from: Office

  5. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  6. Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Euling, Susan Y.; White, Lori D.; Kim, Andrea S.; Sen, Banalata; Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Channa; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Ovacik, Meric A.; Ierapetritou, Marianthi G.; Androulakis, Ioannis P.; Gaido, Kevin W.

    2013-09-15

    An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available doseresponse data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals. - Highlights: ? We evaluate the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data for use in risk assessment. ? We focus on information about the mechanism of action for the developing testis. ? Multiple studies report effects on testosterone and insl3-related pathways. ? We identify additional affected pathways that may explain some testis effects. ? The case study is a template for evaluating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment.

  7. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on augmentation of weight of evidence using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards integration of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for expansion of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual reorientation of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  8. Pathway Aggregation in the Risk Assessment of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) of Nuclear Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, Richard; Catalyurek, Umit; Yilmaz, Alper; Yue, Meng; Cheng, Lap-Yan

    2015-01-23

    The framework for Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR & PP) evaluation is to define a set of challenges, to obtain the system responses, and to assess the outcomes. The assessment of outcomes heavily relies on pathways, defined as sequences of events or actions that could potentially be followed by a State or a group of individuals in order to achieve a proliferation objective, with the defined threats as initiating events. There may be large number of segments connecting pathway stages (e.g. acquisition, processing, and fabrication for PR) which can lead to even larger number of pathways or scenarios through possible different combinations of segment connections, each with associated probabilities contributing to the overall risk. Clustering of these scenarios in specified stage attribute intervals is important for their tractable analysis and outcome assessment. A software tool for scenario generation and clustering (OSUPR) is developed that utilizes the PRCALC code developed at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for scenario generation and the K- means, mean shift and adaptive mean shift algorithms as possible clustering schemes. The results of the study using the Example Sodium Fast Breeder as an example system show that clustering facilitates the probabilistic or deterministic analysis of scenarios to identify system vulnerabilities and communication of the major risk contributors to stakeholders. The results of the study also show that the mean shift algorithm has the most potential for assisting the analysis of the scenarios generated by PRCALC.

  9. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Naturita, Colorado. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-11-01

    The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project, and the Ground Water Project. For the UMTRA Project site located near Naturita, Colorado, phase I involves the removal of radioactively contaminated soils and materials and their transportation to a disposal site at Union Carbide Corporation`s Upper Burbank Repository at Uravan, Colorado. The surface cleanup will reduce radon and other radiation emissions from the former uranium processing site and prevent further site-related contamination of ground water. Phase II of the project will evaluate the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and its effect on human health and the environment, and will determine site-specific ground water compliance strategies in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. Human health risks could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. Environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water or surface water that has mixed with contaminated ground water. Therefore, a risk assessment was conducted for the Naturita site. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Naturita site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment.

  10. DOE PLANT-WIDE ENERGY ASSESSMENT RESULTS RELATED TO THE U. S. AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kelly Kissock, Arvind Thekdi, Len Bishop

    2006-01-05

    Forty-nine plant-wide energy efficiency assessments have been undertaken under sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Industrial Technologies Program. Plant-wide assessments are comprehensive, systematic investigations of plant energy efficiency, including plant utility systems and process operations. Assessments in industrial facilities have highlighted opportunities for implementing best practices in industrial energy management, including the adoption of new, energy-efficient technologies and process and equipment improvements. Total annual savings opportunities of $201 million have been identified from the 40 completed assessments. Many of the participating industrial plants have implemented efficiency-improvement projects and already have realized total cost savings of more than $81 million annually. This paper provides an overview of the assessment efforts undertaken and presents a summary of the major energy and cost savings identified to date. The paper also discusses specific results from assessments conducted at four plants in the automotive manufacturing operations and supporting industries. These particular assessments were conducted at facilities that produce engine castings, plastic films used for glass laminates, forged components, and at a body spray painting plant.

  11. Supplemental information related to risk assessment for the off-site transportation of low-level waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment Div.

    1996-12-01

    This report presents supplemental information to support the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of low-level waste (LLW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). Detailed descriptions of the transportation health risk assessment method and results of the assessment are presented in Appendix E of the WM PEIS and are not repeated in this report. This report presents additional information that is not presented in Appendix E but that was needed to conduct the transportation risk assessment for Waste Management (WM) LLW. Included are definition of the LLW alternatives considered in the WM PEIS, data related to the inventory and to the physical and radiological characteristics of WM LLW, an overview of the risk assessment method, and detailed results of the assessment for each WM LLW alternative considered.

  12. Estimation of the Risks of Collision or Strike to Freshwater Aquatic Organisms Resulting from Operation of Instream Hydrokinetic Turbines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schweizer, Peter E; Cada, Glenn F; Bevelhimer, Mark S

    2010-05-01

    Hydrokinetic energy technologies have been proposed as renewable, environmentally preferable alternatives to fossil fuels for generation of electricity. Hydrokinetic technologies harness the energy of water in motion, either from waves, tides or from river currents. For energy capture from free-flowing rivers, arrays of rotating devices are most commonly proposed. The placement of hydrokinetic devices in large rivers is expected to increase the underwater structural complexity of river landscapes. Moore and Gregory (1988) found that structural complexity increased local fish populations because fish and other aquatic biota are attracted to structural complexity that provides microhabitats with steep flow velocity gradients (Liao 2007). However, hydrokinetic devices have mechanical parts, blades, wings or bars that move through the water column, posing a potential strike or collision risk to fish and other aquatic biota. Furthermore, in a setting with arrays of hydrokinetic turbines the cumulative effects of multiple encounters may increase the risk of strike. Submerged structures associated with a hydrokinetic (HK) project present a collision risk to aquatic organisms and diving birds (Cada et al. 2007). Collision is physical contact between a device or its pressure field and an organism that may result in an injury to that organism (Wilson et al. 2007). Collisions can occur between animals and fixed submerged structures, mooring equipment, horizontal or vertical axis turbine rotors, and structures that, by their individual design or in combination, may form traps. This report defines strike as a special case of collision where a moving part, such as a rotor blade of a HK turbine intercepts the path of an organism of interest, resulting in physical contact with the organism. The severity of a strike incidence may range from minor physical contact with no adverse effects to the organism to severe strike resulting in injury or death of the organism. Harmful effects to animal populations could occur directly (e.g., from strike mortality of individuals) or indirectly (e.g., if the loss of prey species to strike reduces food for predators). Although actively swimming or passively drifting animals may collide with any of the physical structures associated with hydrokinetic devices, turbine rotors are the most likely sources for risk of strike or significant collision (DOE 2009). It is also possible that during a close encounter with a HK device no physical contact will be made between the device and the organism, either because the animal avoids the device by successfully changing its direction of movement, or by successfully evading any moving parts of the device. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Waterpower Program to evaluate strike potential and consequences for Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies in rivers and estuaries of the United States. We will use both predictive models and laboratory/field experiments to evaluate the likelihood and consequences of strike at HK projects in rivers. Efforts undertaken at ORNL address three objectives: (1) Assess strike risk for marine and freshwater organisms; (2) Develop experimental procedures to assess the risk and consequences of strike; and (3) Conduct strike studies in experimental flumes and field installations of hydrokinetic devices. During the first year of the study ORNL collected information from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) MHK database about geographical distribution of proposed hydrokinetic projects (what rivers or other types of systems), HK turbine design (horizontal axis, vertical axis, other), description of proposed axial turbine (number of blades, size of blades, rotation rate, mitigation measures), and number of units per project. Where site specific information was available, we compared the location of proposed projects rotors within the channel (e.g., along cutting edge bank, middle of thalweg, near bottom or in midwater) to the general locations of fish in the river (shoreline, bottom/midwater/surface of channel) to ascertain potential interactions. In addition, we are collaborating and communicating with scientists at other national laboratories and industry who are also developing information useful to this task. For example, other studies being funded by DOE include evaluations of different in-current (hydrokinetic) turbine designs for their effects on rates and severity of blade strike and likelihood of cavitation. This report summarizes activities completed during the first year of a three-year study.

  13. Leakage Risk Assessment for a Potential CO2 Storage Project in Saskatchewan, Canada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houseworth, J.E.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Mazzoldi, A.; Gupta, A.K.; Nicot, J.-P.; Bryant, S.L.

    2011-05-01

    A CO{sub 2} sequestration project is being considered to (1) capture CO{sub 2} emissions from the Consumers Cooperative Refineries Limited at Regina, Saskatchewan and (2) geologically sequester the captured CO{sub 2} locally in a deep saline aquifer. This project is a collaboration of several industrial and governmental organizations, including the Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC), Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC), SaskEnvironment Go Green Fund, SaskPower, CCRL, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Enbridge. The project objective is to sequester 600 tonnes CO{sub 2}/day. Injection is planned to start in 2012 or 2013 for a period of 25 years for a total storage of approximately 5.5 million tonnes CO{sub 2}. This report presents an assessment of the leakage risk of the proposed project using a methodology known as the Certification Framework (CF). The CF is used for evaluating CO{sub 2} leakage risk associated with geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as brine leakage risk owing to displacement and pressurization of brine by the injected CO{sub 2}. We follow the CF methodology by defining the entities (so-called Compartments) that could be impacted by CO{sub 2} leakage, the CO{sub 2} storage region, the potential for leakage along well and fault pathways, and the consequences of such leakage. An understanding of the likelihood and consequences of leakage forms the basis for understanding CO{sub 2} leakage risk, and forms the basis for recommendations of additional data collection and analysis to increase confidence in the risk assessment.

  14. RELAP5/MOD2 Overview and Developmental. Assessment Results from TMl-1 Plant Transient Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, J. C.; Tsai, C. C.; Ransom, V. H.; Johnsen, G. W.

    2013-02-01

    RELAP5/MOD2 is a new version of the RELAP5 thermal-hydraulic computer code containing improved modeling features that provide a generic capability for pressurized water reactor transient simulation. The objective of this paper is to provide code users with an overview of the code and to report developmental assessment results obtained from a Three Mile Island Unit One plant transient analysis. The assessment shows that the injection of highly sub-cooled water into a high-pressure primary coolant system does not cause unphysical results or pose a problem for RELAP5/MOD2. (author)

  15. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Coles, Garill A.; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic operation while maintaining adequate safety margins.

  16. Development of transient initiating event frequencies for use in probabilistic risk assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mackowiak, D.P.; Gentillon, C.D.; Smith, K.L.

    1985-05-01

    Transient initiating event frequencies are an essential input to the analysis process of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment. These frequencies describe events causing or requiring scrams. This report documents an effort to validate and update from other sources a computer-based data file developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) describing such events at 52 United States commercial nuclear power plants. Operating information from the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on 24 additional plants from their date of commercial operation has been combined with the EPRI data, and the entire data base has been updated to add 1980 through 1983 events for all 76 plants. The validity of the EPRI data and data analysis methodology and the adequacy of the EPRI transient categories are examined. New transient initiating event frequencies are derived from the expanded data base using the EPRI transient categories and data display methods. Upper bounds for these frequencies are also provided. Additional analyses explore changes in the dominant transients, changes in transient outage times and their impact on plant operation, and the effects of power level and scheduled scrams on transient event frequencies. A more rigorous data analysis methodology is developed to encourage further refinement of the transient initiating event frequencies derived herein. Updating the transient event data base resulted in approx.2400 events being added to EPRI's approx.3000-event data file. The resulting frequency estimates were in most cases lower than those reported by EPRI, but no significant order-of-magnitude changes were noted. The average number of transients per year for the combined data base is 8.5 for pressurized water reactors and 7.4 for boiling water reactors.

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in the Reliability and Risk Assessment of Generation IV Reactors: Final Scientific/Technical Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vierow, Karen; Aldemir, Tunc

    2009-09-10

    The project entitled, Uncertainty Quantification in the Reliability and Risk Assessment of Generation IV Reactors, was conducted as a DOE NERI project collaboration between Texas A&M University and The Ohio State University between March 2006 and June 2009. The overall goal of the proposed project was to develop practical approaches and tools by which dynamic reliability and risk assessment techniques can be used to augment the uncertainty quantification process in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods and PRA applications for Generation IV reactors. This report is the Final Scientific/Technical Report summarizing the project.

  18. Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Efroymson, R.A.

    2002-05-09

    This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework, (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km{sup 2} between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of activity in August of 2000.

  19. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Monument Valley uranium mill tailings site Cane Valley, Arizona

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, radioactive contaminated soil, equipment, and materials associated with the former uranium ore processing at UMTRA Project sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to minimize further contamination of ground water. Surface cleanup at the Monument Valley UMTRA Project site near Cane Valley, Arizona, was completed in 1994. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination that resulted from the uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. Human health may be at risk from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur by drinking water pumped out of a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated areas. Adverse ecological and agricultural effects may also result from exposure to contaminated ground water. For example, livestock should not be watered with contaminated ground water. A risk assessment describes a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the ecological environment may be exposed, and the health or ecological effects that could result from that exposure. This risk assessment is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site investigations will be used to determine a compliance strategy to comply with the UMTRA ground water standards.

  20. Phase 1 data summary report for the Clinch River Remedial Investigation: Health risk and ecological risk screening assessment. Environmental Restoration Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, R.B.; Adams, S.M.; Beauchamp, J.J.; Bevelhimer, M.S.; Blaylock, B.G.; Brandt, C.C.; Ford, C.J.; Frank, M.L.; Gentry, M.J.; Holladay, S.K.; Hook, L.A.; Levine, D.A.; Longman, R.C.; McGinn, C.W.; Skiles, J.L.; Suter, G.W.; Williams, L.F.

    1992-12-01

    The Clinch River Remedial Investigation (CRRI) is designed to address the transport, fate, and distribution of waterborne contaminants released from the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and to assess potential risks to human health and the environment associated with these contaminants. The contaminants released since the early 1940s include a variety of radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds. The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of Phase 1 of the CRRI. Phase 1 was designed to (1) obtain high-quality data to confirm existing historical data for contaminant levels in fish, sediment, and water from the CR/WBR; (2) determine the in the range of contaminant concentrations present river-reservoir system; (3) identify specific contaminants of concern; and (4) establish the reference (background) concentrations for those contaminants.

  1. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  2. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-18

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  3. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO2 Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-11-30

    The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO2 permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale.

  4. DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    There have been significant developments with regard to the risk assessment and risk informed decision making, as it applies to nuclear and other safety areas, since the Department of Energy (DOE) developed its approach to managing nuclear safety. The developments and associated technical insights may be of use to DOE in its efforts to continuously improve safety performance at its nuclear facilities.

  5. Risk assessment of drain valve failure in the K-West basin south loadout pit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-06-23

    The drain valve located in the bottom of the K-West Basin South Loadout Pit (SLOP) could provide an additional leak path from the K Basins if the drain valve were damaged during construction, installation, or operation of the cask loading system. For the K-West Basin SLOP the immersion pail support structure (IPSS) has already been installed, but the immersion pail has not been installed in the IPSS. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the risk of damaging the drain valve during the remaining installation activities or operation of the cask loading system. Valve damage, as used in this analysis, does not necessarily imply large amounts of the water will be released quickly from the basin, rather valve damage implies that the valve's integrity has been compromised. The analysis process is a risk-based uncertainty analysis where best engineering judgement is used to represent each variable in the analysis. The uncertainty associated with each variable is represented by a probability distribution. The uncertainty is propagated through the analysis by Monte Carlo convolution techniques. The corresponding results are developed as a probability distribution and the risk is expressed in terms of the corresponding complementary cumulative distribution function (''risk curve''). The total risk is the area under the ''risk curve''. The risk of potentially dropping a cask into or on the IPSS and damaging the drain valve is approximately 1 x 10{sup -4} to 2 x 10{sup -5} per year. The risk of objects falling behind the IPSS and damaging the valve is 3 x 10{sup -2} to 6 x 10{sup -3} per year. Both risks are expressed as drain value failure frequencies. The risk of objects falling behind the IPSS and damaging the valve can be significantly reduced by an impact limiter and/or installing a gating or plate over the area bounded by the back of the IPSS and the wall of the SLOP. With either of these actions there is a 90 percent confidence that the frequency of drain valve failure would be less than 1 x 10{sup -6} per year.

  6. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  7. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  8. Nuclear Risk Assessment for the Mars 2020 Mission Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clayton, Daniel J.; Bignell, John; Jones, Christopher A.; Rohe, Daniel P.; Flores, Gregg J.; Bartel, Timothy J.; Gelbard, Fred; Le, San; Morrow, Charles W.; Potter, Donald L.; Young, Larry W.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Lipinski, Ronald J.

    2014-01-01

    In the summer of 2020, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to launch a spacecraft as part of the Mars 2020 mission. One option for the rover on the proposed spacecraft uses a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) to provide continuous electrical and thermal power for the mission. An alternative option being considered is a set of solar panels for electrical power with up to 80 Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHUs) for local component heating. Both the MMRTG and the LWRHUs use radioactive plutonium dioxide. NASA is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act. The EIS will include information on the risks of mission accidents to the general public and on-site workers at the launch complex. This Nuclear Risk Assessment (NRA) addresses the responses of the MMRTG or LWRHU options to potential accident and abort conditions during the launch opportunity for the Mars 2020 mission and the associated consequences. This information provides the technical basis for the radiological risks of both options for the EIS.

  9. Ecological risk assessment guidance for preparation of remedial investigation/feasibility study work plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pentecost, E.D.; Vinikour, W.S.

    1993-08-01

    This guidance document (1) provides instructions on preparing the components of an ecological work plan to complement the overall site remedial assessment investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) work plan and (2) directs the user on how to implement ecological tasks identified in the plan. Under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA), as amended by the Superfired Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA), an RI/FS work plan win have to be developed as part of the site-remediation scoping the process. Specific guidance on the RI/FS process and the preparation of work plans has been developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1988a). This document provides guidance to US Department of Energy (DOE) staff and contractor personnel for incorporation of ecological information into environmental remediation planning and decision making at CERCLA sites. An overview analysis of early ecological risk assessment methods (i.e., in the 1980s) at Superfund sites was conducted by the EPA (1989a). That review provided a perspective of attention given to ecological issues in some of the first RI/FS studies. By itself, that reference is of somewhat limited value; it does, however, establish a basis for comparison of past practices in ecological risk with current, more refined methods.

  10. Use of hazard assessments to achieve risk reduction in the USDOE Stockpile Stewardship (SS-21) Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fischer, S.R.; Konkel, H.; Bott, T.; Eisenhawer, S.W. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); DeYoung, L.; Hockert, J. [Odgen Environmental and Energy Services, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-07-01

    This paper summarizes the nuclear explosive hazard assessment activities performed to support US Department of Energy (DOE) Stockpile Stewardship Demonstration Project SS-21, better known as the ``Seamless Safety`` program. Past practice within the DOE Complex has dictated the use of a significant number of post-design/fabrication safety reviews to analyze the safety associated with operations on nuclear explosives and to answer safety questions. These practices have focused on reviewing-in or auditing-in safety vs incorporating safety in the design process. SS-21 was proposed by the DOE as an avenue to develop a program to ``integrate established, recognized, verifiable safety criteria into the process at the design stage rather than continuing the reliance on reviews, evaluations and audits.`` The entire Seamless Safety design and development process is verified by a concurrent hazard assessment (HA). The primary purpose of the SS-21 Demonstration Project HA was to demonstrate the feasibility of performing concurrent HAs as part of an engineering design and development effort and then to evaluate the use of the HA to provide an indication in the risk reduction or gain in safety achieved. To accomplish this objective, HAs were performed on both baseline (i.e., old) and new (i.e. SS-21) B61-0 Center Case Section disassembly processes. These HAs were used to support the identification and documentation of weapon- and process-specific hazards and safety-critical operating steps. Both HAs focused on identifying accidents that had the potential for worker injury, public health effects, facility damage, toxic gas release, and dispersal of radioactive materials. A comparison of the baseline and SS-21 process risks provided a semi-quantitative estimate of the risk reduction gained via the Seamless Safety process.

  11. Comparative pathophysiology, toxicology, and human cancer risk assessment of pharmaceutical-induced hibernoma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radi, Zaher; Bartholomew, Phillip; Elwell, Michael; Vogel, W. Mark

    2013-12-15

    In humans, hibernoma is a very rare, benign neoplasm of brown adipose tissue (BAT) that typically occurs at subcutaneous locations and is successfully treated by surgical excision. No single cause has been accepted to explain these very rare human tumors. In contrast, spontaneous hibernoma in rats is rare, often malignant, usually occurs in the thoracic or abdominal cavity, and metastases are common. In recent years, there has been an increased incidence of spontaneous hibernomas in rat carcinogenicity studies, but overall the occurrence remains relatively low and highly variable across studies. There have only been four reported examples of pharmaceutical-induced hibernoma in rat carcinogenicity studies. These include phentolamine, an alpha-adrenergic antagonist; varenicline, a nicotine partial agonist; tofacitinib, a Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor; and hydromorphone, an opiod analgesic. Potential non-genotoxic mechanisms that may contribute to the pathogenesis of BAT activation/proliferation and/or subsequent hibernoma development in rats include: (1) physiological stimuli, (2) sympathetic stimulation, (3) peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) agonism, and/or (4) interference or inhibition of JAK/Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription (JAK/STAT) signaling. The evaluation of an apparent increase of hibernoma in rats from 2-year carcinogenicity studies of novel pharmaceutical therapeutics and its relevance to human safety risk assessment is complex. One should consider: the genotoxicity of the test article, dose/exposure and safety margins, and pathophysiologic and morphologic differences and similarities of hibernoma between rats and humans. Hibernomas observed to date in carcinogenicity studies of pharmaceutical agents do not appear to be relevant for human risk at therapeutic dosages. - Highlights: Highly variable incidence of spontaneous hibernoma in carcinogenicity studies Recent increase in the spontaneous incidence of hibernomas in SpragueDawley rats Pharmaceutical-related hibernoma has been observed in rats, but not in humans. Pathophysiologic and morphologic differences of hibernoma between rats and 7 humans. Hibernomas are unlikely to be relevant to human risk assessment.

  12. Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  13. Panel results of the solar thermal program research requirement assessment review. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1983-11-01

    The objectives of the assessment were to identify: research needs by topic and activity, relative priority of research needs, options for performing needed research, potential performers, costs and duration of R and D activities, gaps and duplications within the R and D program, and activities underway that appear to be of low priority. To achieve these objectives, research programs of the Division of Solar Thermal Technologies within the Office of Renewable Energy and Conservation and the Materials and Advanced Energy Programs of the Office of Basic Energy Sciences were reviewed. Several recent assessments of solar thermal research needs made within the past two years by various groups were also reviewed, and the key research issues and needs were extracted. The primary results from the assessment are a set of prioritized activities to meet the most important research needs for solar thermal technologies. These activities belong to four disciplines: materials science, thermal science, thermochemistry, and engineering. Further, priorities associated with the needs for research result from the various activities allow the recommended activities to be grouped into two categories; a core group which should be at the heart of any future program developed by the department, and a set of important needs that should, at least, find their way into a program at some time during its existence. The recommended research program is outlined, and the complete set of ranked research needs is listed.

  14. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Sites near Rifle, Colorado. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, radioactive contaminated soil, equipment, and materials associated with the former uranium ore processing sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to prevent further ground water contamination. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from the uranium ore processing activities. Two UMTRA Project sites are near Rifle, Colorado: the Old Rifle site and the New Rifle site. Surface cleanup at the two sites is under way and is scheduled for completion in 1996. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. A risk assessment identifies a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the environment may be exposed, and the health or environmental effects that could result from that exposure. This report is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. This evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine if action is needed to protect human health or the environment. Human health risk may result from exposure to ground water contaminated from uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur from drinking water obtained from a well placed in the areas of contamination. Furthermore, environmental risk may result from plant or animal exposure to surface water and sediment that have received contaminated ground water.

  15. Development and application of the dynamic system doctor to nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessments.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kunsman, David Marvin; Aldemir, Tunc; Rutt, Benjamin; Metzroth, Kyle; Catalyurek, Umit; Denning, Richard; Hakobyan, Aram; Dunagan, Sean C.

    2008-05-01

    This LDRD project has produced a tool that makes probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear reactors - analyses which are very resource intensive - more efficient. PRAs of nuclear reactors are being increasingly relied on by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.N.R.C.) for licensing decisions for current and advanced reactors. Yet, PRAs are produced much as they were 20 years ago. The work here applied a modern systems analysis technique to the accident progression analysis portion of the PRA; the technique was a system-independent multi-task computer driver routine. Initially, the objective of the work was to fuse the accident progression event tree (APET) portion of a PRA to the dynamic system doctor (DSD) created by Ohio State University. Instead, during the initial efforts, it was found that the DSD could be linked directly to a detailed accident progression phenomenological simulation code - the type on which APET construction and analysis relies, albeit indirectly - and thereby directly create and analyze the APET. The expanded DSD computational architecture and infrastructure that was created during this effort is called ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees). ADAPT is a system software infrastructure that supports execution and analysis of multiple dynamic event-tree simulations on distributed environments. A simulator abstraction layer was developed, and a generic driver was implemented for executing simulators on a distributed environment. As a demonstration of the use of the methodological tool, ADAPT was applied to quantify the likelihood of competing accident progression pathways occurring for a particular accident scenario in a particular reactor type using MELCOR, an integrated severe accident analysis code developed at Sandia. (ADAPT was intentionally created with flexibility, however, and is not limited to interacting with only one code. With minor coding changes to input files, ADAPT can be linked to other such codes.) The results of this demonstration indicate that the approach can significantly reduce the resources required for Level 2 PRAs. From the phenomenological viewpoint, ADAPT can also treat the associated epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. This methodology can also be used for analyses of other complex systems. Any complex system can be analyzed using ADAPT if the workings of that system can be displayed as an event tree, there is a computer code that simulates how those events could progress, and that simulator code has switches to turn on and off system events, phenomena, etc. Using and applying ADAPT to particular problems is not human independent. While the human resources for the creation and analysis of the accident progression are significantly decreased, knowledgeable analysts are still necessary for a given project to apply ADAPT successfully. This research and development effort has met its original goals and then exceeded them.

  16. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report.

  17. FY12 ARRA-NRAP Report Studies to Support Risk Assessment of Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cantrell, Kirk J.; Shao, Hongbo; Thompson, C. J.; Zhong, Lirong; Jung, Hun Bok; Um, Wooyong

    2011-09-27

    This report summarizes results of research conducted during FY2012 to support the assessment of environmental risks associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration and storage. Several research focus areas are ongoing as part of this project. This includes the quantification of the leachability of metals and organic compounds from representative CO2 storage reservoir and caprock materials, the fate of metals and organic compounds after release, and the development of a method to measure pH in situ under supercritical CO2 (scCO2) conditions. Metal leachability experiments were completed on 6 different rock samples in brine in equilibrium with scCO2 at representative geologic reservoir conditions. In general, the leaching of RCRA metals and other metals of concern was found to be limited and not likely to be a significant issue (at least, for the rocks tested). Metals leaching experiments were also completed on 1 rock sample with scCO2 containing oxygen at concentrations of 0, 1, 5, and 10% to simulate injection of CO2 originating from the oxy-fuel combustion process. Significant differences in the leaching behavior of certain metals were observed when oxygen is present in the CO2. These differences resulted from oxidation of sulfides, release of sulfate, ferric iron and other metals, and subsequent precipitation of iron oxides and some sulfates such as barite. Experiments to evaluate the potential for mobilization of organic compounds from representative reservoir materials and cap rock and their fate in porous media (quartz sand) have been conducted. Results with Fruitland coal and Gothic shale indicate that lighter organic compounds were more susceptible to mobilization by scCO2 compared to heavier compounds. Alkanes demonstrated very low extractability by scCO2. No significant differences were observed between the extractability of organic compounds by dry or water saturated scCO2. Reaction equilibrium appears to have been reached by 96 hours. When the scCO2 was released from the reactor, less than 60% of the injected lighter compounds (benzene, toluene) were transported through dry sand column by the CO2, while more than 90% of the heavier organics were trapped in the sand column. For wet sand columns, most (80% to 100%) of the organic compounds injected into the sand column passed through, except for naphthalene which was substantial removed from the CO2 within the column. A spectrophotometric method was developed to measure pH in brines in contact with scCO2. This method provides an alternative to fragile glass pH electrodes and thermodynamic modeling approaches for estimating pH. The method was tested in simulated reservoir fluids (CO2NaClH2O) at different temperatures, pressures, and ionic strength, and the results were compared with other experimental studies and geochemical models. Measured pH values were generally in agreement with the models, but inconsistencies were present between some of the models.

  18. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature. [Once-through Cycle and Plutonium Recycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included.

  19. Study of Risk Assessment Programs at Federal Agencies and Commercial Industry Related to the Conduct or Regulation of High Hazard Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bari, R.; Rosenbloom, S.; O'Brien, J.

    2011-03-13

    In the Department of Energy (DOE) Implementation Plan (IP) for Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board's Recommendation 2009-1, the DOE committed to studying the use of quantitative risk assessment methodologies at government agencies and industry. This study consisted of document reviews and interviews of senior management and risk assessment staff at six organizations. Data were collected and analyzed on risk assessment applications, risk assessment tools, and controls and infrastructure supporting the correct usage of risk assessment and risk management tools. The study found that the agencies were in different degrees of maturity in the use of risk assessment to support the analysis of high hazard operations and to support decisions related to these operations. Agencies did not share a simple, 'one size fits all' approach to tools, controls, and infrastructure needs. The agencies recognized that flexibility was warranted to allow use of risk assessment tools in a manner that is commensurate with the complexity of the application. The study also found that, even with the lack of some data, agencies application of the risk analysis structured approach could provide useful insights such as potential system vulnerabilities. This study, in combination with a companion study of risk assessment programs in the DOE Offices involved in high hazard operations, is being used to determine the nature and type of controls and infrastructure needed to support risk assessments at the DOE.

  20. Neighborhood level health risk assessment of lead paint removal activities from elevated steel bridges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Conway, R.F.; Cohen, J.T.; Bowers, T.

    1999-07-01

    The New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) has adopted strict containment and monitoring procedures during paint removal activities on its bridges because of the increasing awareness about lead poisoning in children in urban environments and the potential risk of lead-based paint releases during those activities. NYCDOT owns nearly 800 bridges scattered throughout New York City. Before undertaking paint removal activities as part of its ongoing preventive maintenance and rehabilitation program, NYCDOT recently conducted an analysis to determine the public health risk posed to children living near them. The analysis the first of its kind to assess the actual public health risk potential during both routine operations and upset conditions, or accidental releases evaluated the total and incremental blood lead levels from paint removal activities on more than 5,000 children from 6 months to 6 years old. Increases in baseline blood lead levels were estimated using several models, including EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model. This model estimates steady-state blood lead levels in children, reflecting exposure to lead in multiple media over an extended period of time. Increases in lead exposure from paint removal activities in the area surrounding the bridges was estimated using EPA's Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) model to calculate ambient air and deposition levels. Potential releases from the containment and ancillary equipment used in the paint removal process were modeled based on different release scenarios ranging from routine operations to complete failure of containment. To estimate the paint removal activities' contribution to long-term exterior dust lead levels (and its related interior component), a stochastic simulation model was developed for each block in the study area.

  1. Expert judgment in assessing radwaste risks: What Nevadans should know about Yucca Mountain; [Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shrader-Frechette, K.

    1992-06-01

    For phenomena characterized by accurate and largely complete data, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides extraordinarily valuable and objective information. However, with phenomena for which the data, models, or probabilities are incomplete or uncertain, QRA may be less useful and more questionable, because its conclusions are typically empirically and theoretically underdetermined. In the face of empirical or theoretical underdetermination, scientists often are forced to make a number of methodological value judgments and inferences about how to estimate and evaluate the associated risks. The purpose of this project is to evaluate instances of methodological value judgments and invalid or imprecise inferences that have occurred in the QRA done for the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste facility. We shall show (1) that questionable methodological value judgments and inferences have occurred in some Yucca Mountain QRA`S; (2) that questionable judgments and inferences, similar to those in the Yucca Mountain studies, have occurred in previous QRA`s done for other radiation-related facilities and have likely caused earlier QRA`s to err in specific ways; and (3) that, because the value judgments and problems associated with some Yucca Mountain QRA`s include repetitions of similar difficulties in earlier studies, therefore the QRA conclusions of some Yucca Mountain analyses are, at best, uncertain.

  2. OSHA's approach to risk assessment for setting a revised occupational exposure standard for 1,3-butadiene

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grossman, E.A.; Martonik, J. )

    1990-06-01

    In its 1980 benzene decision (Industrial Union Department, ALF-CIO v. American Petroleum Institute, 448 U.S. 607 (1980)), the Supreme Court ruled that before he can promulgate any permanent health or safety standard, the Secretary (of Labor) is required to make a threshold finding that a place of employment is unsafe--in the sense that significant risks are present and can be lessened by a change in practices (448 U.S. at 642). The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has interpreted this to mean that whenever possible, it must quantify the risk associated with occupational exposure to a toxic substance at the current permissible exposure limit (PEL). If OSHA determines that there is significant risk to workers' health at its current standard, then it must quantify the risk associated with a variety of alternative standards to determine at what level, if any, occupational exposure to a substance no longer poses a significant risk. For rulemaking on occupational exposure to 1,3-butadiene, there are two studies that are suitable for quantitative risk assessment. One is a mouse inhalation bioassay conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP), and the other is a rat inhalation bioassay conducted by Hazelton Laboratories Europe. Of the four risk assessments that have been submitted to OSHA, all four have used the mouse and/or rat data with a variety of models to quantify the risk associated with occupational exposure to 1,3-butadiene. In addition, OSHA has performed its own risk assessment using the female mouse and female rat data and the one-hit and multistage models.

  3. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  4. Report on the remedial investigation of Bear Creek Valley at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Volume 6: Appendix G -- Baseline ecological risk assessment report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-09-01

    This Remedial Investigation (RI) Report characterizes the nature and extent of contamination, evaluates the fate and transport of contaminants, and assesses risk to human health and the environment resulting from waste disposal and other US Department of Energy (DOE) operations in Bear Creek Valley (BCV). BCV, which is located within the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) encompasses multiple waste units containing hazardous and radioactive wastes arising from operations at the adjacent Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant. The primary waste units discussed in this RI Report are the S-3 Site, Oil Landfarm (OLF), Boneyard/Burnyard (BYBY), Sanitary Landfill 1 (SL 1), and Bear Creek Burial Grounds (BCBG). These waste units, plus the contaminated media resulting from environmental transport of the wastes from these units, are the subject of this RI. This BCV RI Report represents the first major step in the decision-making process for the BCV watershed. The RI results, in concert with the follow-on FS will form the basis for the Proposed Plan and Record of Decision for all BCV sites. This comprehensive decision document process will meet the objectives of the watershed approach for BCV. Appendix G contains ecological risks for fish, benthic invertebrates, soil invertebrates, plants, small mammals, deer, and predator/scavengers (hawks and fox). This risk assessment identified significant ecological risks from chemicals in water, sediment, soil, and shallow ground water. Metals and PCBs are the primary contaminants of concern.

  5. Challenges for In vitro to in Vivo Extrapolation of Nanomaterial Dosimetry for Human Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Jordan N.

    2013-11-01

    The proliferation in types and uses of nanomaterials in consumer products has led to rapid application of conventional in vitro approaches for hazard identification. Unfortunately, assumptions pertaining to experimental design and interpretation for studies with chemicals are not generally appropriate for nanomaterials. The fate of nanomaterials in cell culture media, cellular dose to nanomaterials, cellular dose to nanomaterial byproducts, and intracellular fate of nanomaterials at the target site of toxicity all must be considered in order to accurately extrapolate in vitro results to reliable predictions of human risk.

  6. Ecological risk assessment of elemental pollution in sediment from Tunku Abdul Rahman National Park, Sabah

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elias, Md Suhaimi; Hamzah, Mohd Suhaimi; Rahman, Shamsiah Ab; Salim, Nazaratul Ashifa Abdullah; Siong, Wee Boon; Sanuri, Ezwiza

    2014-02-12

    Eleven (11) surface sediment samples were collected from Tunku Abdul Rahman National Park, Sabah. The neutron activation analysis (NAA) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) techniques were applied for the determinations metal contents and their distributions in sediment samples. The results shown that Arsenic (As) concentrations are enriched at all sampling stations except for station TAR 09, with enrichment factor (EF) values ranged from 1.1 to 7.2. The elements such as Cd, Cr, Sb and U showed enrichment at a few stations and other elements (Cr, Cu, Pb, Th, Zn) shown as background levels in all stations. Degrees of contamination in this study were calculated base on concentrations of six elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn). TAR 11 station can be categorized as very high degree of contamination with degree of contamination value of 43.2. TAR 07 station can be categorized as a considerable degree of contamination (contamination value of 16.9). Six stations (TAR 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, 08, 10) showed moderate degree of contamination, with contamination values ranging from 8.0 to 16.0. TAR 02 and TAR 09 stations showed low degree of contaminations (< 8.0). TAR 11 showed very high ecological risk index (R{sub I}) with RI value is 916. TAR 07 and TAR 10 showed moderate ecological risk index with R{sub I} value 263 and 213, respectively. Other stations showed low ecological risk with RI values ranging from 42.3 to 117 (< 150). Very high ecological risk index could give an adverse effect to the benthic organism. The data obtained from the enrichment factor, degree of contamination and ecological risk index provided vital information, which can be used for future comparison. Information from the present study will be useful to the relevant government agencies and authorities in preparing preventive action to control direct discharge of heavy metals from industries, agro-base activities and domestic waste to the rivers and the sea.

  7. Establishment of a bioassay system for cancer risk assessment in energy technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ts'o, P.O.P.; Bruce, S.A.; Brown, A.

    1983-09-01

    Separate abstracts were prepared for 20 papers in this report. For several years the Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), has supported a research program aimed at developing new experimental approaches for the improvement of cancer risk assessments. The central issue is to overcome the organizational, species and other barriers that make it difficult to extrapolate laboratory-based data to predict risk to man. Most of the participants at the meeting are involved in research aimed at understanding the mechanism(s) of chemical carcinogenesis. Complex mixtures of chemicals are associated with many energy technologies. DOE's initial program emphasis focused on semi-applied research aimed at quantitative evaluation of carcinogenic activity of complex materials. Since much progress has been made in DOE integrated technology-specific chemical-biological characterization studies, the number and kinds of chemicals of concern has been reduced to a relatively few well-defined classes. Although the classes of compounds seem to be unique to some of the synfuel technologies, they are quite similar to compounds of general interest, for example, poly-nuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. Special emphasis was placed on molecular and cellular dosimetry as one of the key requirements for quantitative comparison of effects at the cell level in vivo and in vitro. Although it is relatively easy to measure cell, tissue, organ and whole organism doses associated with radiation exposures, we are just learning how to do this for chemical agents. Several methods have been developed in the past several years which can be used.

  8. Development of a new technique to assess susceptibility to predation resulting from sublethal stresses (indirect mortality)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ?ada, Glenn F.; Ryon, Michael G.; Wolf, Dennis A.; Smith, Brennan T.

    2003-08-01

    Fish that pass through a hydroelectric turbine may not be killed directly, but may nonetheless experience sublethal stresses that will increase their susceptibility to predators (indirect mortality). There is a need to develop reliable tests for indirect mortality so that the full consequences of passage through turbines (and other routes around a hydroelectric dam) can be assessed. This study evaluated a new technique for assessing indirect mortality, based on a behavioral response to a startling stimulus (akin to perceiving an approaching predator). The study compared this technique to the standard predator preference test. To do this, the study first subjected striped shiners and fathead minnows to varying intensities of either turbulence (10-, 20- or 30-min) or 2-min exposures to a fish anesthetic (100 or 200 mg/L of tricaine methanesulfonate), and evaluated their subsequent behavior. Individual fish were given a startle stimulus and filmed with a high-speed video camera. Second, a standard predator preference test was conducted with largemouth bass as the predators and fathead minnows as prey. In this test design, groups of 10 unstressed fish (controls) and 10 stressed fish were put in a tank with a predator. The stressed fathead minnows were exposed to turbulence or fish anesthetic. This pattern was the same as seen in fathead minnows using the startle response (escape behavior) test. The resulting image files were analyzed for a variety of behavioral measures including: presence of a response, time to first reaction, duration of reaction, time to formation of maximum C-shape, time to completion of C-shape, and completeness of C-shape.

  9. Assessment of Barotrauma Resulting from Rapid Decompression of Depth Acclimated Juvenile Chinook Salmon Bearing Radio Telemetry Transmitters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Richard S.; Carlson, Thomas J.; Welch, Abigail E.; Stephenson, John R.; Abernethy, Cary S.; McKinstry, Craig A.; Theriault, Marie-Helene

    2007-09-06

    A multifactor study was conducted by Battelle for the US Army Corps of Engineers to assess the significance of the presence of a radio telemetry transmitter on the effects of rapid decompression from simulated hydro turbine passage on depth acclimated juvenile run-of-the-river Chinook salmon. Study factors were: (1) juvenile chinook salmon age;, subyearling or yearling, (2) radio transmitter present or absent, (3) three transmitter implantation factors: gastric, surgical, and no transmitter, and (4) four acclimation depth factors: 1, 10, 20, and 40 foot submergence equivalent absolute pressure, for a total of 48 unique treatments. Exposed fish were examined for changes in behavior, presence or absence of barotrauma injuries, and immediate or delayed mortality. Logistic models were used to test hypotheses that addressed study objectives. The presence of a radio transmitter was found to significantly increase the risk of barotrauma injury and mortality at exposure to rapid decompression. Gastric implantation was found to present a higher risk than surgical implantation. Fish were exposed within 48 hours of transmitter implantation so surgical incisions were not completely healed. The difference in results obtained for gastric and surgical implantation methods may be the result of study design and the results may have been different if tested fish had completely healed surgical wounds. However, the test did simulate the typical surgical-release time frame for in-river telemetry studies of fish survival so the results are probably representative for fish passing through a turbine shortly following release into the river. The finding of a significant difference in response to rapid decompression between fish bearing radio transmitters and those not implies a bias may exist in estimates of turbine passage survival obtained using radio telemetry. However, the rapid decompression (simulated turbine passage) conditions used for the study represented near worst case exposure for fish passing through turbines. At this time, insufficient data exist about the distribution of river-run fish entering turbines, and particularly, the distribution of fish passing through turbine runners, to extrapolate study findings to the population of fish passing through FCRPS turbines. This study is the first study examining rapid decompression study to include acclimation depth as an experimental factor for physostomous fish. We found that fish acclimated to deeper depth were significantly more vulnerable to barotrauma injury and death. Insufficient information about the distribution of fish entering turbines and their depth acclimation currently exists to extrapolate these findings to the population of fish passing through turbines. However, the risk of barotrauma for turbine-passed fish could be particularly high for subyearling Chinook salmon that migrate downstream at deeper depths late in the early summer portion of the outmigration. Barotrauma injuries led to immediate mortality delayed mortality and potential mortality due to increased susceptibility to predation resulting from loss of equilibrium or swim bladder rupture.

  10. Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" on Tuesday, April 26, from 12:00 to 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

  11. Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

    2011-03-31

    ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

  12. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Monument Valley Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Cane Valley, Arizona. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site in Cane Valley near Monument Valley, Arizona. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has relocated and stabilized this site`s tailings and other contaminated material in a disposal cell at Mexican Hat, Utah. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project that evaluates potential health and environmental risks. It will help determine the approach required to address contaminated ground water at the site.

  13. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Sites near Rifle, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    The ground water project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from the uranium ore processing activities. This report is a site specific document that will be used to evaluate current and future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. Currently, no one is using the ground water and therefore, no one is at risk. However, the land will probably be developed in the future and so the possibility of people using the ground water does exist. This report examines the future possibility of health hazards resulting from the ingestion of contaminated drinking water, skin contact, fish ingestion, or contact with surface waters and sediments.

  14. Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  15. An overview of the evolution of human reliability analysis in the context of probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bley, Dennis C.; Lois, Erasmia; Kolaczkowski, Alan M.; Forester, John Alan; Wreathall, John; Cooper, Susan E.

    2009-01-01

    Since the Reactor Safety Study in the early 1970's, human reliability analysis (HRA) has been evolving towards a better ability to account for the factors and conditions that can lead humans to take unsafe actions and thereby provide better estimates of the likelihood of human error for probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of recent reviews of operational events and advances in the behavioral sciences that have impacted the evolution of HRA methods and contributed to improvements. The paper discusses the importance of human errors in complex human-technical systems, examines why humans contribute to accidents and unsafe conditions, and discusses how lessons learned over the years have changed the perspective and approach for modeling human behavior in PRAs of complicated domains such as nuclear power plants. It is argued that it has become increasingly more important to understand and model the more cognitive aspects of human performance and to address the broader range of factors that have been shown to influence human performance in complex domains. The paper concludes by addressing the current ability of HRA to adequately predict human failure events and their likelihood.

  16. Final Report: Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1996-03-01

    Potential human health and environmental impacts from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico are of concern to regulators at the State and Federal levels, the public, environmental interest groups and industry. Current and proposed regulations require a zero discharge limit for coastal facilities, based primarily on studies in low energy, poorly flushed environments. However, produced water discharges in coastal Louisiana include a number of open bay sites, where potential human health and environmental impacts are likely to be smaller than those demonstrated for low energy canal environments, but greater than the minimal impacts associated with offshore discharges. Additional data and assessments are needed to support risk managers at the State and Federal levels in the development of regulations that protect human health and the environment without unnecessary cost to the economic welfare of the region and the nation. This project supports the Natural Gas and Oil Initiative objectives to: (1) improve coordination on environmental research; (2) streamline State and Federal regulation; (3) enhance State, and Federal regulatory decision making capability; (4) enhance dialogue through industry/government/public partnerships; and (5) work with States and Native American Tribes.

  17. A review of plutonium environmental data with a bibliography for use in risk assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartram, B.W.; Wilkinson, M.J.

    1983-06-15

    Plutonium fueled radioisotopic heat sources find space, terrestrial, and undersea applications to generate electrical power. Such systems under postulated accident conditions could release radioactivity into the environment resulting in risks to the general population in the form of radiological doses and associated health effects. The evaluation of the radiological impact of postulated scenarios involving releases of activity into the environment includes identification of postulated accident release modes, including the probability of release and the release location; source term definition, including the activity of each radionuclide released and the corresponding chemical form and particle size distribution; analysis of the environmental behavior of the released radioactivity to determine the concentrations in environmental media (air, soil, and water) as a function of time; and analysis of the interaction between the environmental concentrations and man, leading to ingestion, inhalation, and external doses through each environmental exposure pathway. 443 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  18. Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mortensen, Holly M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-09-15

    Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization of drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment.

  19. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings sites near Rifle, Colorado. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase 1) and the Ground Water Project (Phase 2). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, radioactive contaminated soil, equipment, and materials associated with the former uranium ore processing sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to prevent further ground water contamination. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from the uranium ore processing activities. Two UMTRA Project sites are near Rifle, Colorado: the Old Rifle site and the New Rifle site. Surface cleanup at the two sites is under way and is scheduled for completion in 1996. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. A risk assessment identifies a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the environment may be exposed, and the health or environmental effects that could result from that exposure. This report is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. This evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine if action is needed to protect human health or the environment.

  20. Non-Targeted Effects of Ionizing Radiation: Implications for Risk Assessment and the Radiation Dose Response Profile

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morgan, William F.; Sowa, Marianne B.

    2009-11-01

    Radiation risks at low doses remain a hotly debated topic. Recent experimental advances in our understanding of effects occurring in the progeny of irradiated cells, and/or the non-irradiated neighbors of irradiated cells, i.e., non-targeted effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, have influenced this debate. The goal of this document is to summarize the current status of this debate and speculate on the potential impact of non-targeted effects on radiation risk assessment and the radiation dose response profile.

  1. Development of a New Technique to Assess Susceptibility to Predation Resulting from Sublethal Stresses (Indirect Mortality)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cada, G.F.

    2003-08-25

    Fish that pass through a hydroelectric turbine may not be killed directly, but may nonetheless experience sublethal stresses that will increase their susceptibility to predators (indirect mortality). There is a need to develop reliable tests for indirect mortality so that the full consequences of passage through turbines (and other routes around a hydroelectric dam) can be assessed. We evaluated a new technique for assessing indirect mortality, based on a behavioral response to a startling stimulus (akin to perceiving an approaching predator). We compare this technique to the standard predator preference test. The behavioral response is a rapid movement commonly referred to as a startle response, escape response, or C-shape, based on the characteristic body position assumed by the fish. When viewed from above, a startled fish bends into a C-shape, then springs back and swims away in a direction different from its original orientation. This predator avoidance (escape) behavior can be compromised by sublethal stresses that temporarily stun or disorient the fish. We subjected striped shiners and fathead minnows to varying intensities of either turbulence (10-, 20- or 30-min) or 2-min exposures to a fish anesthetic (100 or 200 mg/L of tricaine methanesulfonate), and evaluated their subsequent behavior. Individual fish were given a startle stimulus and filmed with a high-speed video camera. Each fish was startled and filmed twice before being stressed, and then at 1-, 5-, 15-, and 30-min post-exposure. The resulting image files were analyzed for a variety of behavioral measures including: presence of a response, time to first reaction, duration of reaction, time to formation of maximum C-shape, time to completion of C-shape, and completeness of C-shape. The most immediate measure of potential changes in fish behavior was whether stressed fish exhibited a startle response. For striped shiners, the number of fish not responding to the stimulus was significantly different from controls at 1-min post-exposure and for fathead minnows at 1- and 5-min post-exposure. The greatest effects occurred with exposure to the fish anesthetic; in fathead minnows all of the recorded measures were significantly different from controls at 1-min and 5-min post-exposure at the 100 mg/L dose. For striped shiners all recorded behavioral measures were significantly different from controls at 1-min at the 200 and 100 mg/L doses and for selected behavioral measures at 5-min. Turbulence also had significant effects on striped shiner startle responses following 20- and 30-min exposures for all behavioral measures at 1-min. The patterns suggest that any effects on startle response due to turbulence or low doses of anesthetic are short-lived, but can be evaluated using the escape behavior technique. The most useful indication of changes in escape behavior in these tests was the simple reaction/no reaction to the startle stimulus. The startle response occurred reliably among unstressed fish, and was frequently reduced or eliminated in fish exposed to turbulence or anesthesia. The other behavioral parameters observed were often altered by the sublethal stresses as well. A standard predator preference test was also conducted with largemouth bass as the predators and fathead minnows as prey. In this test design, groups of 10 unstressed fish (controls) and 10 stressed fish were put in a tank with a predator. The stressed fathead minnows were exposed to turbulence or fish anesthetic. The predator was allowed to eat half of the prey, and the data were evaluated to determine whether predators consumed greater proportions of stressed minnows than control minnows. The predation test indicated that exposure to MS-222 resulted in significant predation in fathead minnows, but exposure to turbulence did not. This pattern was the same as seen in fathead minnows using the startle response (escape behavior) test. For the sublethal stresses we applied, evaluation of changes in fish escape behavior yielded results comparable to traditional predator preference tests. Because t

  2. Update of identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images: An annotated bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nieves, L.A.; Clark, D.E.; Wernette, D.

    1991-08-01

    This annotated bibliography reviews selected literature published through August 1991 on the identification of perceived risks and methods for estimating the economic impacts of risk perception. It updates the literature review found in Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/EAIS/TM-24 (February 1990). Included in this update are (1) a literature review of the risk perception process, of the relationship between risk perception and economic impacts, of economic methods and empirical applications, and interregional market interactions and adjustments; (2) a working bibliography (that includes the documents abstracted in the 1990 report); (3) a topical index to the abstracts found in both reports; and (4) abstracts of selected articles found in this update.

  3. Results of the R and D assessment for the blanket comparison and selection study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, C.C.

    1985-01-01

    A research and development (R and D) assessment was carried out to identify all the major issues for the major blankets evaluated in the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study. A total of 29 issues were identified. Each issue is described in detail, the status of the data base for that issue is summarized, the required data to resolve the issue is identified and the approximate level of resources are indicated.

  4. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Maybell, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-09-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, radioactive contaminated soil, building foundations, and materials associated with the former processing of uranium ore at UMTRA sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to prevent further contamination of ground water. One UMTRA Project site is near Maybell, Colorado. Surface cleanup at this site is under way and is scheduled for completion in 1996. The tailings are being stabilized in-place at this site. The disposal area has been withdrawn from public use by the DOE and is referred to as the permanent withdrawal area. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from past uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project at this site is in its beginning stages. This report is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and future potential impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment. Currently, no points of exposure (e.g. a drinking water well); and no receptors of contaminated ground water have been identified at the Maybell site. Therefore, there are no current human health and ecological risks associated with exposure to contaminated ground water. Furthermore, if current site conditions and land- and water-use patterns do not change, it is unlikely that contaminated ground water would reach people or the ecological communities in the future.

  5. Probabilistic methods in seismic risk assessment for nuclear power plants: proceedings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-01-01

    The state-of-the-art in seismic risk analysis applied to the design and siting of nuclear power plants was addressed in this meeting. Presentations were entered individually into the date base. (ACR)

  6. Bureaucracy in crisis: Three Mile Island, the shuttle Challenger, and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Casamayou, M.H.

    1995-07-01

    This book is a study in organizational theory about how technological bureaucracies perceive, communicate about, and respond to potential risks to public safety, using Three mile island and the Challenger accident as examples.

  7. Assessment of ISLOCA risk-methodology and application to a combustion engineering plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISOLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed of description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Combustion Engineering plant.

  8. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  9. Risk Assessment and Monitoring of Stored CO2 in Organic Rocks Under Non-Equilibrium Conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malhotra, Vivak

    2014-06-30

    The USA is embarking upon tackling the serious environmental challenges posed to the world by greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2). The dimension of the problem is daunting. In fact, according to the Energy Information Agency, nearly 6 billion metric tons of CO2 were produced in the USA in 2007 with coal-burning power plants contributing about 2 billion metric tons. To mitigate the concerns associated with CO2 emission, geological sequestration holds promise. Among the potential geological storage sites, unmineable coal seams and shale formations in particular show promise because of the probability of methane recovery while sequestering the CO2. However. the success of large-scale sequestration of CO2 in coal and shale would hinge on a thorough understanding of CO2's interactions with host reservoirs. An important parameter for successful storage of CO2 reservoirs would be whether the pressurized CO2 would remain invariant in coal and shale formations under reasonable internal and/or external perturbations. Recent research has brought to the fore the potential of induced seismicity, which may result in caprock compromise. Therefore, to evaluate the potential risks involved in sequestering CO2 in Illinois bituminous coal seams and shale, we studied: (i) the mechanical behavior of Murphysboro (Illinois) and Houchin Creek (Illinois) coals, (ii) thermodynamic behavior of Illinois bituminous coal at - 100oC ≤ T ≤ 300oC, (iii) how high pressure CO2 (up to 20.7 MPa) modifies the viscosity of the host, (iv) the rate of emission of CO2 from Illinois bituminous coal and shale cores if the cores, which were pressurized with high pressure (≤ 20.7 MPa) CO2, were exposed to an atmospheric pressure, simulating the development of leakage pathways, (v) whether there are any fractions of CO2 stored in these hosts which are resistance to emission by simply exposing the cores to atmospheric pressure, and (vi) how compressive shockwaves applied to the coal and shale cores, which were pressurized with high pressure CO2, determine the fate of sequestered CO2 in these cores. Our results suggested that Illinois bituminous coal in its unperturbed state, i.e., when not pressurized with CO2, showed large variations in the mechanical properties. Modulus varied from 0.7 GPa to 3.4 GPa even though samples were extracted from a single large chunk of coal. We did not observe any glass transition for Illinois bituminous coal at - 100oC ≤ T ≤ 300oC, however, when the coal was pressurized with CO2 at ambient ≤ P ≤ 20.7 MPa, the viscosity of the coal decreased and inversely scaled with the CO2 pressure. The decrease in viscosity as a function of pressure could pose CO2 injection problems for coal as lower viscosity would allow the solid coal to flow to plug the fractures, fissures, and cleats. Our experiments also showed a very small fraction of CO2 was absorbed in coal; and when CO2 pressurized coals were exposed to atmospheric conditions, the loss of CO2 from coals was massive. Half of the sequestered gas from the coal cores was lost in less than 20 minutes. Our shockwave experiments on Illinois bituminous coal, New Albany shale (Illinois), Devonian shale (Ohio), and Utica shale (Ohio) presented clear evidence that the significant emission of the sequestered CO2 from these formations cannot be discounted during seismic activity, especially if caprock is compromised. It is argued that additional shockwave studies, both compressive and transverse, would be required for successfully mapping the risks associated with sequestering high pressure CO2 in coal and shale formations.

  10. Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    consistently and to high standards. DOE EM sponsored the Performance Assessment Community of Practice in 2009, to: a) provide means to address consistency early and...

  11. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a station blackout (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

  12. Update of assessment of geotechnical risks, strategic petroleum reserve, Weeks Island site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bauer, S.J.

    1994-12-01

    This report is a critical reassessment of the geotechnical risks of continuing oil storage at the Weeks Island Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. It reviews all previous risk abatement recommendations, subsequent mitigative actions, and new information. Of increased concern, due to the discovery of a surface levels, is the long term maintainability of the mine as an oil storage repository. Mine operational changes are supported in order to facilitate monitoring of water entry diagnostics. These changes are also intended to minimize the volume in the mine available for water entry. Specific recommendations are made to implement the mine changes.

  13. Assessing the assessments: Pharmaceuticals in the environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Enick, O.V. Moore, M.M.

    2007-11-15

    The relatively new issue of pharmaceutical contamination of the environment offers the opportunity to explore the application of values to the construction, communication and management of risk. The still-developing regulatory policies regarding environmental contamination with pharmaceuticals provide fertile ground for the introduction of values into the definition and management of risk. In this report, we summarize the current knowledge regarding pharmaceutical contamination of the environment and discuss specific attributes of pharmaceuticals that require special consideration. We then present an analysis showing that if values are incorporated into assessing, characterizing and managing risk, the results of risk assessments will more accurately reflect the needs of various stakeholders. Originating from an acknowledgement of the inherent uncertainty and value-laden nature of risk assessment, the precautionary principle (and later, the multi-criteria, integrated risk assessment), provides a direction for further research and policy development.

  14. Stored CO2 and Methane Leakage Risk Assessment and Monitoring Tool Development: CO2 Capture Project Phase 2 (CCP2)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dan Kieki

    2008-09-30

    The primary project goal is to develop and test tools for optimization of ECBM recovery and geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in coalbeds, in addition to tools for monitoring CO{sub 2} sequestration in coalbeds to support risk assessment. Three critical topics identified are (1) the integrity of coal bed methane geologic and engineered systems, (2) the optimization of the coal bed storage process, and (3) reliable monitoring and verification systems appropriate to the special conditions of CO{sub 2} storage and flow in coals.

  15. Microsoft Word - NETL-TRS-4-2012_Integration of Spatial Data to Support Risk and Impact Assessments_20121221.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integration of Spatial Data to Support Risk and Impact Assessments for Deep and Ultra-deepwater Hydrocarbon Activities in the Gulf of Mexico 21 December 2012 Office of Fossil Energy NETL-TRS-4-2012 Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the

  16. A Framework to Expand and Advance Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Support Small Modular Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; David Schwieder; Robert Nourgaliev; Cherie Phelan; Diego Mandelli; Kellie Kvarfordt; Robert Youngblood

    2012-09-01

    During the early development of nuclear power plants, researchers and engineers focused on many aspects of plant operation, two of which were getting the newly-found technology to work and minimizing the likelihood of perceived accidents through redundancy and diversity. As time, and our experience, has progressed, the realization of plant operational risk/reliability has entered into the design, operation, and regulation of these plants. But, to date, we have only dabbled at the surface of risk and reliability technologies. For the next generation of small modular reactors (SMRs), it is imperative that these technologies evolve into an accepted, encompassing, validated, and integral part of the plant in order to reduce costs and to demonstrate safe operation. Further, while it is presumed that safety margins are substantial for proposed SMR designs, the depiction and demonstration of these margins needs to be better understood in order to optimize the licensing process.

  17. An example postclosure risk assessment using the potential Yucca Mountain Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doctor, P.G.; Eslinger, P.W.; Elwood, D.M.; Engel, D.W.; Freshley, M.D.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Reimus, P.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Tanner, J.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1992-05-01

    The risk analysis described in this document was performed for the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) over a 2-year time period ending in June 1988. The objective of Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) task was to demonstrate an integrated, though preliminary, modeling approach for estimating the postclosure risk associated with a geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The modeling study used published characterization data for the proposed candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, along with existing models and computer codes available at that time. Some of the site data and conceptual models reported in the Site Characterization Plan published in December 1988, however, were not yet available at the time that PNL conducted the modeling studies.

  18. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

  19. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility`s evaluation basis fire operational accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brumburgh, G.

    1994-08-31

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility.

  20. Baseline risk assessment for groundwater operable units at the Chemical Plant Area and the Ordnance Works Area, Weldon Spring, Missouri

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-07-14

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Department of the Army (DA) are evaluating conditions in groundwater and springs at the DOE chemical plant area and the DA ordnance works area near Weldon Spring, Missouri. The two areas are located in St. Charles County, about 48 km (30 mi) west of St. Louis. The 88-ha (217-acre) chemical plant area is chemically and radioactively contaminated as a result of uranium-processing activities conducted by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission in the 1950s and 1960s and explosives-production activities conducted by the U.S. Army (Army) in the 1940s. The 6,974-ha (17,232-acre) ordnance works area is primarily chemically contaminated as a result of trinitrotoluene (TNT) and dinitrotoluene (DNT) manufacturing activities during World War II. This baseline risk assessment (BRA) is being conducted as part of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RUFS) required under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) of 1980, as amended. The purpose of the BRA is to evaluate potential human health and ecological impacts from contamination associated with the groundwater operable units (GWOUs) of the chemical plant area and ordnance works area. An RI/FS work plan issued jointly in 1995 by the DOE and DA (DOE 1995) analyzed existing conditions at the GWOUs. The work plan included a conceptual hydrogeological model based on data available when the report was prepared; this model indicated that the aquifer of concern is common to both areas. Hence, to optimize further data collection and interpretation efforts, the DOE and DA have decided to conduct a joint RI/BRA. Characterization data obtained from the chemical plant area wells indicate that uranium is present at levels slightly higher than background, with a few concentrations exceeding the proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 20 {micro}g/L (EPA 1996c). Concentrations of other radionuclides (e.g., radium and thorium) were measured at back-ground levels and were eliminated from further consideration. Chemical contaminants identified in wells at the chemical plant area and ordnance works area include nitroaromatic compounds, metals, and inorganic anions. Trichloroethylene (TCE) and 1,2-dichloroethylene (1,2 -DCE) have been detected recently in a few wells near the raffinate pits at the chemical plant.

  1. Proliferation resistance assessments during the design phase of a recycling facility as a means of reducing proliferation risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lindell, M.A.; Grape, S.; Haekansson, A.; Jacobsson Svaerd, S.

    2013-07-01

    The sustainability criterion for Gen IV nuclear energy systems inherently presumes the availability of efficient fuel recycling capabilities. One area for research on advanced fuel recycling concerns safeguards aspects of this type of facilities. Since a recycling facility may be considered as sensitive from a non-proliferation perspective, it is important to address these issues early in the design process, according to the principle of Safeguards By Design. Presented in this paper is a mode of procedure, where assessments of the proliferation resistance (PR) of a recycling facility for fast reactor fuel have been performed so as to identify the weakest barriers to proliferation of nuclear material. Two supplementing established methodologies have been applied; TOPS (Technological Opportunities to increase Proliferation resistance of nuclear power Systems) and PR-PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection evaluation methodology). The chosen fuel recycling facility belongs to a small Gen IV lead-cooled fast reactor system that is under study in Sweden. A schematic design of the recycling facility, where actinides are separated using solvent extraction, has been examined. The PR assessment methodologies make it possible to pinpoint areas in which the facility can be improved in order to reduce the risk of diversion. The initial facility design may then be slightly modified and/or safeguards measures may be introduced to reduce the total identified proliferation risk. After each modification of design and/or safeguards implementation, a new PR assessment of the revised system can then be carried out. This way, each modification can be evaluated and new ways to further enhance the proliferation resistance can be identified. This type of iterative procedure may support Safeguards By Design in the planning of new recycling plants and other nuclear facilities. (authors)

  2. Sunitinib Plus Androgen Deprivation and Radiation Therapy for Patients With Localized High-Risk Prostate Cancer: Results From a Multi-institutional Phase 1 Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Corn, Paul G.; Song, Danny Y.; Heath, Elisabeth; Maier, Jordan; Meyn, Raymond; Kuban, Deborah; DePetrillo, Thomas A.; Mathew, Paul

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility of administering sunitinib in combination with androgen deprivation therapy and external-beam intensity modulated radiation therapy (XRT) in patients with localized high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Seventeen men with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate with cT2c-cT4 or Gleason 8-10 or prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL received initial androgen deprivation (leuprolide 22.5 mg every 12 weeks plus oral bicalutamide 50 mg daily) for 4-8 weeks before oral sunitinib 12.5, 25, or 37.5 mg daily for 4 weeks as lead-in, then concurrently with and 4 weeks after XRT (75.6 Gy in 42 fractions to prostate and seminal vesicles). A 3+3 sequential dose-escalation design was used to assess the frequency of dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) and establish a maximal tolerated dose of sunitinib. Results: Sunitinib at 12.5- and 25-mg dose levels was well tolerated. The first 4 patients enrolled at 37.5 mg experienced a DLT during lead-in, and a drug interaction between sunitinib and bicalutamide was suspected. The protocol was revised and concurrent bicalutamide omitted. Of the next 3 patients enrolled at 37.5 mg, 2 of 3 receiving concurrent therapy experienced DLTs during radiation: grade 3 diarrhea and grade 3 proctitis, respectively. Only 1 of 7 patients completed sunitinib at 37.5 mg daily, whereas 3 of 3 patients (25 mg as starting dose) and 3 of 4 patients (25 mg as reduced dose) completed therapy. Conclusions: The feasibility of combined vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR)/platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR) inhibitor therapy, androgen deprivation, and radiation therapy for prostate cancer was established. Using a daily dosing regimen with lead-in, concurrent, and post-XRT therapy, the recommended phase 2 dose of sunitinib is 25 mg daily.

  3. Development of a Software Framework for System-Level Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.

    2013-02-28

    The overall purpose of this project was to identify, evaluate, select, develop, and test a suite of enhancements to the GoldSim software program, in order to make it a better tool for use in support of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) projects. The GoldSim software is a foundational tool used by scientists at NETL and at other laboratories and research institutions to evaluate system-level risks of proposed CCS projects. The primary product of the project was a series of successively improved versions of the GoldSim software, supported by an extensive User’s Guide. All of the enhancements were tested by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and several of the enhancements have already been incorporated into the CO{sub 2}-PENS sequestration model.

  4. Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Binh T. Pham; Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J Lybeck; Magdy S Tawfik

    2012-05-01

    Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespans. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depend on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system.

  5. Feasibility assessment of the water energy resources of the United States for new low power and small hydro classes of hydroelectric plants: Appendix B - Assessment results by state

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, Douglas

    2006-01-01

    Water energy resource sites identified in the resource assessment study reported in Water Energy Resources of the United States with Emphasis on Low Head/Low Power Resources, DOE/ID-11111, April 2004 were evaluated to identify which could feasibly be developed using a set of feasibility criteria. The gross power potential of the sites estimated in the previous study was refined to determine the realistic hydropower potential of the sites using a set of development criteria assuming they are developed as low power (less than 1 MWa) or small hydro (between 1 and 30 MWa) projects. The methodologies for performing the feasibility assessment and estimating hydropower potential are described. The results for the country in terms of the number of feasible sites, their total gross power potential, and their total hydropower potential are presented. The spatial distribution of the feasible potential projects is presented on maps of the conterminous U.S. and Alaska and Hawaii. Results summaries for each of the 50 states are presented in Appendix B. The results of the study are also viewable using a Virtual Hydropower Prospector geographic information system application accessible on the Internet at: http://hydropower.inl.gov/prospector.

  6. Risk assessment methodology applied to counter IED research & development portfolio prioritization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shevitz, Daniel W; O' Brien, David A; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Chavez, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    In an effort to protect the United States from the ever increasing threat of domestic terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), has significantly increased research activities to counter the terrorist use of explosives. More over, DHS S&T has established a robust Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Program to Deter, Predict, Detect, Defeat, and Mitigate this imminent threat to the Homeland. The DHS S&T portfolio is complicated and changing. In order to provide the ''best answer'' for the available resources, DHS S&T would like some ''risk based'' process for making funding decisions. There is a definite need for a methodology to compare very different types of technologies on a common basis. A methodology was developed that allows users to evaluate a new ''quad chart'' and rank it, compared to all other quad charts across S&T divisions. It couples a logic model with an evidential reasoning model using an Excel spreadsheet containing weights of the subjective merits of different technologies. The methodology produces an Excel spreadsheet containing the aggregate rankings of the different technologies. It uses Extensible Logic Modeling (ELM) for logic models combined with LANL software called INFTree for evidential reasoning.

  7. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impactmore » of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.« less

  8. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report.

  9. Integrating Safety Assessment Methods using the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-03-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current light water reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSC) degradations or failures that initiate safety significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly over-design portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as safety margin. Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated primarily based on engineering judgment backed by a set of conservative engineering calculations. The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the RISMC Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as margins management strategies. The purpose of the RISMC Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. As the lead Department of Energy (DOE) Laboratory for this Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is tasked with developing and deploying methods and tools that support the quantification and management of safety margin and uncertainty.

  10. Optimization Method to Branch and Bound Large SBO State Spaces Under Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment via use of LENDIT Scales and S2R2 Sets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joseph W. Nielsen; Akira Tokurio; Robert Hiromoto; Jivan Khatry

    2014-06-01

    Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been developed and are quite effective in evaluating risk associated with complex systems, but lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. These time and energy scales associated with the transient may vary as a function of transition time to a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems, while complete, results in issues associated with combinatorial explosion. In order to address the combinatorial complexity arising from the number of possible state configurations and discretization of transition times, a characteristic scaling metric (LENDIT length, energy, number, distribution, information and time) is proposed as a means to describe systems uniformly and thus provide means to describe relational constraints expected in the dynamics of a complex (coupled) systems. Thus when LENDIT is used to characterize four sets state, system, resource and response (S2R2) describing reactor operations (normal and off-normal), LENDIT and S2R2 in combination have the potential to branch and bound the state space investigated by DPRA. In this paper we introduce the concept of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets applied to a branch-and-bound algorithm and apply the methods to a station black out transient (SBO).

  11. Remedial investigation/feasibility study of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek Operable Unit. Volume 3. Risk assessment information. Appendixes E, F

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    This report presents the findings of an investigation into contamination of the Clinch River and Poplar Creek near the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. For more than 50 years, various hazardous and radioactive substances have been released to the environment as a result of operations and waste management activities at the ORR. In 1989, the ORR was placed on the National Priorities List (NPL), established and maintained under the federal Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Under CERCLA, NPL sites must be investigated to determine the nature and extent of contamination at the site, assess the risk to human health and the environment posed by the site, and, if necessary, identify feasible remedial alternatives that could be used to clean the site and reduce risk. To facilitate the overall environmental restoration effort at the ORR, CERCLA activities are being implemented individually as distinct operable units (OUs). This document is Volume 3 of the combined Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study Report for the Clinch River/Poplar Creek OU.

  12. Remedial investigation/feasibility study of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek operable unit. Volume 3: Appendixes E and F -- Risk assessment information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-06-01

    This report presents the findings of an investigation into contamination of the Clinch River and Poplar Creek near the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. For more than 50 years, various hazardous and radioactive substances have been released to the environment as a result of operations and waste management activities at the ORR. In 1989, the ORR was placed on the National Priorities List (NPL), established and maintained under the federal Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Under CERCLA, NPL sites must be investigated to determine the nature and extent of contamination at the site, assess the risk to human health and the environment posed by the site, and, if necessary, identify feasible remedial alternatives that could be used to clean the site and reduce risk. To facilitate the overall environmental restoration effort at the ORR, CERCLA activities are being implemented individually as distinct operable units (OUs). This document is the combined Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study Report for the Clinch River/Poplar Creek OU.

  13. Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: I. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate male reproductive development toxicity data set

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makris, Susan L.; Euling, Susan Y.; Gray, L. Earl; Benson, Robert; Foster, Paul M.D.

    2013-09-15

    A case study was conducted, using dibutyl phthalate (DBP), to explore an approach to using toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. The toxicity and toxicogenomic data sets relative to DBP-related male reproductive developmental outcomes were considered conjointly to derive information about mode and mechanism of action. In this manuscript, we describe the case study evaluation of the toxicological database for DBP, focusing on identifying the full spectrum of male reproductive developmental effects. The data were assessed to 1) evaluate low dose and low incidence findings and 2) identify male reproductive toxicity endpoints without well-established modes of action (MOAs). These efforts led to the characterization of data gaps and research needs for the toxicity and toxicogenomic studies in a risk assessment context. Further, the identification of endpoints with unexplained MOAs in the toxicity data set was useful in the subsequent evaluation of the mechanistic information that the toxicogenomic data set evaluation could provide. The extensive analysis of the toxicology data set within the MOA context provided a resource of information for DBP in attempts to hypothesize MOAs (for endpoints without a well-established MOA) and to phenotypically anchor toxicogenomic and other mechanistic data both to toxicity endpoints and to available toxicogenomic data. This case study serves as an example of the steps that can be taken to develop a toxicological data source for a risk assessment, both in general and especially for risk assessments that include toxicogenomic data.

  14. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of a small set of comprehensive event trees and fault trees and recommendation for future work.

  15. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Maybell, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, contaminated soil, building foundations, and materials associated with the former processing of uranium ore at UMTRA Project sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to prevent further contamination of ground water. One UMTRA Project site is near Maybell, Colorado. Surface cleanup at this site began in 1995 and is scheduled for completion in 1996. The tailings are being stabilized in place at this site. The disposal area has been withdrawn from public use by the DOE and is referred to as the permanent withdrawal area. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from past uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project at this site is in its beginning stages. This report is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and future potential impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results presented in this document and other evaluations will determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment.

  17. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mark A. Sippel; William C. Carrigan; Kenneth D. Luff; Lyn Canter

    2003-11-12

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). The software tools in ICS have been developed for characterization of reservoir properties and evaluation of hydrocarbon potential using a combination of inter-disciplinary data sources such as geophysical, geologic and engineering variables. The ICS tools provide a means for logical and consistent reservoir characterization and oil reserve estimates. The tools can be broadly characterized as (1) clustering tools, (2) neural solvers, (3) multiple-linear regression, (4) entrapment-potential calculator and (5) file utility tools. ICS tools are extremely flexible in their approach and use, and applicable to most geologic settings. The tools are primarily designed to correlate relationships between seismic information and engineering and geologic data obtained from wells, and to convert or translate seismic information into engineering and geologic terms or units. It is also possible to apply ICS in a simple framework that may include reservoir characterization using only engineering, seismic, or geologic data in the analysis. ICS tools were developed and tested using geophysical, geologic and engineering data obtained from an exploitation and development project involving the Red River Formation in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. Data obtained from 3D seismic surveys, and 2D seismic lines encompassing nine prospective field areas were used in the analysis. The geologic setting of the Red River Formation in Bowman and Harding counties is that of a shallow-shelf, carbonate system. Present-day depth of the Red River formation is approximately 8000 to 10,000 ft below ground surface. This report summarizes production results from well demonstration activity, results of reservoir characterization of the Red River Formation at demonstration sites, descriptions of ICS tools and strategies for their application.

  18. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, Anna Francina; Williams, Andrew; Recio, Leslie; Waters, Michael D.; Lambert, Iain B.; Yauk, Carole L.

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF-?B in tumorigenesis are proposed. BMD and MoE values from transcriptional and apical data are compared.

  19. Analyzing Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Data through Topology-Based Clustering

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diego Mandelli; Dan Maljovec; BeiWang; Valerio Pascucci; Peer-Timo Bremer

    2013-09-01

    We investigate the use of a topology-based clustering technique on the data generated by dynamic event tree methodologies. The clustering technique we utilizes focuses on a domain-partitioning algorithm based on topological structures known as the Morse-Smale complex, which partitions the data points into clusters based on their uniform gradient flow behavior. We perform both end state analysis and transient analysis to classify the set of nuclear scenarios. We demonstrate our methodology on a dataset generated for a sodium-cooled fast reactor during an aircraft crash scenario. The simulation tracks the temperature of the reactor as well as the time for a recovery team to fix the passive cooling system. Combined with clustering results obtained previously through mean shift methodology, we present the user with complementary views of the data that help illuminate key features that may be otherwise hidden using a single methodology. By clustering the data, the number of relevant test cases to be selected for further analysis can be drastically reduced by selecting a representative from each cluster. Identifying the similarities of simulations within a cluster can also aid in the drawing of important conclusions with respect to safety analysis.

  20. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  1. Quarterly Report for LANL Activities: FY12-Q2 National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP): Industrial Carbon Capture Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pawar, Rajesh J.

    2012-04-17

    This report summarizes progress of LANL activities related to the tasks performed under the LANL FWP FE102-002-FY10, National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP): Industrial Carbon Capture Program. This FWP is funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Overall, the NRAP activities are focused on understanding and evaluating risks associated with large-scale injection and long-term storage of CO{sub 2} in deep geological formations. One of the primary risks during large-scale injection is due to changes in geomechanical stresses to the storage reservoir, to the caprock/seals and to the wellbores. These changes may have the potential to cause CO{sub 2} and brine leakage and geochemical impacts to the groundwater systems. While the importance of these stresses is well recognized, there have been relatively few quantitative studies (laboratory, field or theoretical) of geomechanical processes in sequestration systems. In addition, there are no integrated studies that allow evaluation of risks to groundwater quality in the context of CO{sub 2} injection-induced stresses. The work performed under this project is focused on better understanding these effects. LANL approach will develop laboratory and computational tools to understand the impact of CO{sub 2}-induced mechanical stress by creating a geomechanical test bed using inputs from laboratory experiments, field data, and conceptual approaches. The Geomechanical Test Bed will be used for conducting sensitivity and scenario analyses of the impacts of CO{sub 2} injection. The specific types of questions will relate to fault stimulation and fracture inducing stress on caprock, changes in wellbore leakage due to evolution of stress in the reservoir and caprock, and the potential for induced seismicity. In addition, the Geomechanical Test Bed will be used to investigate the coupling of stress-induced leakage pathways with impacts on groundwater quality. LANL activities are performed under two tasks: (1) develop laboratory and computational tools to understand CO{sub 2}-induced mechanical impacts and (2) use natural analog sites to determine potential groundwater impacts. We are using the Springerville-St. John Dome as a field site for collecting field data on CO{sub 2} migration through faults and groundwater impacts as well as developing and validating computational models. During the FY12 second quarter we have been working with New England Research Company to construct a tri-axial core-holder. We have built fluid control system for the coreflood system that can be ported to perform in-situ imaging of core. We have performed numerical simulations for groundwater impacts of CO{sub 2} and brine leakage using the reservoir model for Springerville-St John's Dome site. We have analyzed groundwater samples collected from Springerville site for major ion chemistry and isotopic composition. We are currently analyzing subsurface core and chip samples acquired for mineralogical composition.

  2. Risk Identification and Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    can be easily and quickly corrected with little effect on people, mission, assets, finances, or stakeholder trust.|A benefit with little or no improvement of operations or...

  3. COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    KEY Upper Walnut Drainage Inter - Drainage West Area Wind Blown Area Rock Creek Drainage Industrial Area Upper Woman Drainage Southeast Buffer Zone Area Lower Woman Drainage Southwest Buffer Zone Area No Name Gulch Drainage Lower Walnut Drainage 2075000 2075000 2080000 2080000 2085000 2085000 2090000 2090000 2095000 2095000 745000 745000 750000 750000 755000 755000 0 1,500 3,000 Feet File: W:\Projects\FY2005\RIFS_Fig\Sec07\ArcMap\ Figure_7_1_EU.mxd U.S. Department of Energy Rocky Flats

  4. Leakage Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Transportation by Pipeline at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, Decatur, Illinois

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mazzoldi, A.; Oldenburg, C. M.

    2013-12-17

    The Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) is designed to confirm the ability of the Mt. Simon Sandstone, a major regional saline-water-bearing formation in the Illinois Basin, to store 1 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injected over a period of three years. The CO{sub 2} will be provided by Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) from its Decatur, Illinois, ethanol plant. In order to transport CO{sub 2} from the capture facility to the injection well (also located within the ADM plant boundaries), a high-pressure pipeline of length 3,200 ft (975 m) has been constructed, running above the ground surface within the ADM plant footprint. We have qualitatively evaluated risks associated with possible pipeline failure scenarios that lead to discharge of CO{sub 2} within the real-world environment of the ADM plant in which there are often workers and visitors in the vicinity of the pipeline. There are several aspects of CO{sub 2} that make its transportation and potential leakage somewhat different from other substances, most notable is its non-flammability and propensity to change to solid (dry ice) upon strong decompression. In this study, we present numerical simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods of the release and dispersion of CO{sub 2} from individual hypothetical pipeline failures (i.e., leaks). Failure frequency of the various components of a pipeline transportation system over time are taken from prior work on general pipeline safety and leakage modeling and suggest a 4.65% chance of some kind of pipeline failure over the three-years of operation. Following the Precautionary Principle (see below), we accounted for full-bore leakage scenarios, where the temporal evolution of the mass release rate from the high-pressure pipeline leak locations was simulated using a state-of-the-art Pipe model which considers the thermodynamic effects of decompression in the entire pipeline. Failures have been simulated at four representative locations along the pipeline route within the ADM plant. Leakage scenarios at sites along the route of the pipeline, where plant operations (e.g., vehicular and train transportation) seem to present a higher likelihood of accidental failure, for example due to vehicles or equipment crashing into the pipeline and completely severing it, were modeled by allowing them to have a double source consistent with the pipeline releasing high-pressure CO{sub 2} from both ends of the broken pipe after a full-bore offset rupture. Simulation results show that the built environment of the plant plays a significant role in the dispersion of the gas as leaking CO{sub 2} can impinge upon buildings and other infrastructure. In all scenarios simulated, the region of very high-concentration of CO{sub 2} is limited to a small area around the pipeline failure, suggesting the likelihood of widespread harmful CO{sub 2} exposure to plant personnel from pipeline leakage is low. An additional risk is posed by the blast wave that emanates from a high-pressure pipeline when it is breached quickly. We estimate the blast wave risk as low because it occurs only for a short time in the immediate vicinity of the rupture, and requires an instantaneous large-scale rupture to occur. We recommend consideration of signage and guard rails and posts to mitigate the likelihood of vehicles crashing into the pipeline. A standardized emergency response plan applicable to capture plants within industrial sites could be developed based on the IBDP that would be useful for other capture plants. Finally, we recommend carrying out coupled wellbore-reservoir blowout scenario modeling to understand the potential for hazardous conditions arising from an unexpected blowout at the wellhead.

  5. Rapid Qualitative Risk Assessment for Contaminant Leakage From Coal Seams During Underground Coal Gasification and CO2 Injection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Friedmann, S J

    2004-07-02

    One of the major risks associated with underground coal gasification is contamination of local aquifers with a variety of toxic compounds. It is likely that the rate, volume, extent, and concentrations of contaminant plumes will depend on the local permeability field near the point of gasification. This field depends heavily on the geological history of stratigraphic deposition and the specifics of stratigraphic succession. Some coals are thick and isolated, whereas others are thinner and more regionally expressed. Some coals are overlain by impermeable units, such as marine or lacustrine shales, whereas others are overlain by permeable zones associated with deltaic or fluvial successions. Rapid stratigraphic characterization of the succession provides first order information as to the general risk of contaminant escape, which provides a means of ranking coal contaminant risks by their depositional context. This risk categorization could also be used for ranking the relative risk of CO{sub 2} escape from injected coal seams. Further work is needed to verify accuracy and provide some quantification of risks.

  6. Centralized Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment - CRADA Final Report For CRADA Number NFE-11-03562

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, R. K.; Peters, Scott

    2014-05-28

    The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modified and used as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  7. Human health risk assessment and remediation activities at White Oak Creek Embayment at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blaylock, B.G.

    1994-12-31

    Cesium-137 concentrations of >10{sup 6} Bq/kg dry wt (10{sup 4} pCi/g dry wt) were found in the surface sediments of White Oak Creek Embayment (WOCE) during 1990. A review of past data indicated Cesium-137, among other contaminants, was released from White Oak dam in the mid 1950s and had accumulated in the sediment of WOCE. The sediments from WOCE were being eroded and transported downstream primarily during winter low-water levels by flood events and by a combination of normal downstream flow and water turbulence. Sampling was conducted to determine the extent of radiological and nonradiological contamination. A contaminant screening analysis was conducted to determine which contaminants pose a problem from a human health standpoint. All noncarcinogens had screening indices of <1.0, indicating that concentrations of noncarcinogens were below the levels of concern for a realistic maximum exposure situation. An illegal intruder or an individual using the embayment for fishing purposes could be exposed to >10{sup 4} risk of excess lifetime cancer incidence from external exposure to Cesium-137 in sediment and from ingestion of polychlorinated biphenyls in fish. As a result of these analyses and the fact that >10{sup 6} Bq/kg dry wt (10{sup 4} pCi/g dry wt) of Cesium-137 could be transported from the Oak Ridge Reservation, a coffer-cell dam was constructed at the mouth of White Oak Creek in 1992 to: (1) reduce sediment erosion and the transport of radioactive sediments from the WOCE into the Clinch River, (2) maintain year-round inundation of the embayment sediments to reduce external radiation exposure, and (3) impede the movement of fish into and out of the embayment. The effectiveness of this remediation is being evaluated.

  8. Initial performance assessment of the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste stored at Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Volume 1, Methodology and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1993-12-01

    This performance assessment characterized plausible treatment options conceived by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) for its spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste and then modeled the performance of the resulting waste forms in two hypothetical, deep, geologic repositories: one in bedded salt and the other in granite. The results of the performance assessment are intended to help guide INEL in its study of how to prepare wastes and spent fuel for eventual permanent disposal. This assessment was part of the Waste Management Technology Development Program designed to help the US Department of Energy develop and demonstrate the capability to dispose of its nuclear waste. Although numerous caveats must be placed on the results, the general findings were as follows: Though the waste form behavior depended upon the repository type, all current and proposed waste forms provided acceptable behavior in the salt and granite repositories.

  9. JV Task 109 - Risk Assessment and Feasibility of Remedial Alternatives for Coal Seam at Garrison, North Dakota

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jarda Solc

    2008-01-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted an evaluation of alternative technologies for remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated coal seam, including impacted soils and groundwater in Garrison, North Dakota. Geotechnical characteristics of the impacted fractured coal seam provide for rapid off-site contaminant transport, with the currently identified impacted zone covering an area of about 40 acres. Regardless of the exposure mechanism (free, dissolved, or vapor phase), results of laboratory tests confirmed secondary release of gasoline-based compounds from contaminated coal to water reaching concentrations documented from the impacted areas. Coal laboratory tests confirmed low risks associated with spontaneous ignition of gasoline-contaminated coal. High contaminant recovery efficiency for the vacuum-enhanced recovery pilot tests conducted at three selected locations confirmed its feasibility for full-scale remediation. A total of 3500 gallons (13.3 m{sup 3}) of contaminated groundwater and over 430,000 ft{sup 3} (12,200 m{sup 3}) of soil vapor were extracted during vacuum-enhanced recovery testing conducted July 17-24, 2007, resulting in the removal of about 1330 lb (603 kg) of hydrocarbons, an equivalent of about 213 gallons of product. The summary of project activities is as follows: (1) Groundwater and vapor monitoring for existing wells, including domestic wells, conducted on a monthly basis from December 12, 2006, to June 6, 2007. This monitoring activity conducted prior to initiation of the EERC field investigation was requested by NDDH in a letter dated December 1, 2006. (2) Drilling of 20 soil borings, including installation of extraction and monitoring wells conducted April 30-May 4 and May 14-18, 2007. (3) Groundwater sampling and water-table monitoring conducted June 11-13, 2007. (4) Evaluation of the feasibility of using a camera survey for delineation of mining voids conducted May 16 and September 10-11, 2007. (5) Survey of all wells at the site. (6) Laboratory testing of the coal samples conducted from August to October 2007. (7) Vacuum-enhanced pilot tests at three locations: Cenex corner, Tesoro corner, and cavity area, conducted July 17-24, 2007. (8) Verification of plume delineation for a full-scale design and installation of six monitoring wells September 10-13, 2007. (9) Groundwater sampling and monitoring conducted September 11-12, September 26, and October 3, 2007. (10) Feasibility evaluation of alternative technologies/strategies for the subject site.

  10. A tiered approach for the human health risk assessment for consumption of vegetables from with cadmium-contaminated land in urban areas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swartjes, Frank A. Versluijs, Kees W.; Otte, Piet F.

    2013-10-15

    Consumption of vegetables that are grown in urban areas takes place worldwide. In developing countries, vegetables are traditionally grown in urban areas for cheap food supply. In developing and developed countries, urban gardening is gaining momentum. A problem that arises with urban gardening is the presence of contaminants in soil, which can be taken up by vegetables. In this study, a scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables from cadmium-contaminated land. Starting from a contaminated site, the procedure follows a tiered approach which is laid out as follows. In Tier 0, the plausibility of growing vegetables is investigated. In Tier 1 soil concentrations are compared with the human health-based Critical soil concentration. Tier 2 offers the possibility for a detailed site-specific human health risk assessment in which calculated exposure is compared to the toxicological reference dose. In Tier 3, vegetable concentrations are measured and tested following a standardized measurement protocol. To underpin the derivation of the Critical soil concentrations and to develop a tool for site-specific assessment the determination of the representative concentration in vegetables has been evaluated for a range of vegetables. The core of the procedure is based on Freundlich-type plantsoil relations, with the total soil concentration and the soil properties as variables. When a significant plantsoil relation is lacking for a specific vegetable a geometric mean of BioConcentrationFactors (BCF) is used, which is normalized according to soil properties. Subsequently, a conservative vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor is calculated as basis for the Critical soil concentration (Tier 1). The tool to perform site-specific human health risk assessment (Tier 2) includes the calculation of a realistic worst case site-specific vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor. -- Highlights: A scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables. Uptake characteristics of cadmium in a series of vegetables is represented by a vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor. Calculations and measurement steps are combined.

  11. The Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enterprise Risk Management Model Using the Risk Assessment Tool to Prepare a Justification Memorandum for the Development and Revision of Departmental Directives * On January 14,...

  12. Impact of Screening and Risk Factors for Local Recurrence and Survival After Conservative Surgery and Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer: Results From a Large Series With Long-Term Follow-Up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kunkler, Ian H.; Kerr, Gillian R.; Thomas, Jeremy S.; Jack, Wilma J.L.; Bartlett, John M.S.; Pedersen, Hans C.; Cameron, David A.; Dixon, J. Michael; Chetty, Udi

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: To investigate conventional prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), distant metastasis (DM), and survival after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in screen-detected and symptomatic cases on surveillance up to 25 years. Patients and Methods: A total of 1812 consecutive patients in three cohorts (1981-1989, 1990-1992, and 1993-1998) with T12N01M0 invasive breast cancer were treated with BCT (median follow-up, 14 years). Tumor type and grade were reviewed by a single pathologist. Hormone receptor status was measured by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess independent prognostic variables for relapse and survival. Results: A total of 205 IBTR occurred, with 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year actuarial relapse rates of 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.35-5.5%), 8.4% (95% CI 7.1-9.8%), 14.1% (95% CI 12.0-16%), and 17.4% (95% CI 14.5-20.2%). Number of nodes, young age, pathologic tumor size, and multifocality were significant factors for IBTR. Three hundred seventy-eight patients developed DM. The actuarial metastatic rate was 12% at 5 years and 17.9% at 10 years. Young age, number of positive nodes, pathologic tumor size, and tumor grade were significant factors for DM relapse. When conventional prognostic indices were taken into account screen-detected cancers showed no improvement in overall relapse or survival rate compared with symptomatic cases but did show a reduced risk of DM after IBTR. After 10 years IBTR relapse continued at a constant rate of 0.87% per annum. Conclusions: The Edinburgh BCT series has shown that screen-detected invasive breast cancers do not have significantly different clinical outcomes compared with symptomatic cases when pathologic risk factors are taken into account. This suggests that these patients be managed in a similar way.

  13. NGNP Point Design - Results of the Initial Neutronics and Thermal-Hydraulic Assessments During FY-03, Rev. 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Philip E. MacDonald; James W. Sterbentz; Robert L. Sant; P. Bayless; H. D. Gougar; R. L. Moore; A. M. Ougouag; W. K. Terry

    2003-09-01

    This report presents the preliminary preconceptual designs for two possible versions of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), one for a prismatic fuel type helium gas-cooled reactor and one for a pebble bed fuel helium gas reactor. Both designs are to meet three basic requirements: a coolant outlet temperature of 1000 C, passive safety, and a total power output consistent with that expected for commercial high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The two efforts are discussed separately below. The analytical results presented in this report are very promising, however, we wish to caution the reader that future, more detailed, design work will be needed to provide final answers to a number of key questions including the allowable power level, the inlet temperature, the power density, the optimum fuel form, and others. The point design work presented in this report provides a starting point for other evaluations, and directions for the detailed design, but not final answers.

  14. Plutonium chemistry under conditions relevant for WIPP performance assessment. Review of experimental results and recommendations for future work

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oversby, Virginia M.

    2000-09-30

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located at a depth of 650 m in bedded salt at a site approximately 40 km east of Carlsbad, New Mexico, was constructed by the US Department of Energy for the disposal of transuranic wastes arising from defense-related activities. The disposal site is regulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). During the process leading to certification of the site for initial emplacement of waste, EEG and their contractors reviewed the DOE Compliance Certification Application (CCA) and raised a number of issues. This report reviews the issues related to the chemistry of plutonium as it will affect the potential for release of radioactivity under WIPP conditions. Emphasis is placed on conditions appropriate for the Human Intrusion scenario(s), since human intrusion has the largest potential for releasing radioactivity to the environment under WIPP conditions. The most significant issues that need to be addressed in relation to plutonium chemistry under WIPP conditions are (1) the effects of heterogeneity in the repository on Pu concentrations in brines introduced under the human intrusion scenario, (2) the redox state of Pu in solution and potential for plutonium in solid phases to have a different redox state from that in the solution phase, (3) the effect of organic ligands on the solubility of Pu in WIPP-relevant brines, and (4) the effects of TRU waste characteristics in determining the solubility of Pu. These issues are reviewed with respect to the treatment they received in the DOE CCA, DOEs response to EEGs comments on the CCA, and EPAs response to those comments as reflected in the final EPA rule that led to the opening of the WIPP. Experimental results obtained in DOEs Actinide Source-Term Test Program (STTP) during the last two years are reviewed and interpreted in the light of other developments in the field of Pu solution chemistry. This analysis is used as the basis for a conceptual model for Pu behavior under WIPP conditions. This report identifies three issues that can be addressed as part of the five-year re-certification cycles mandated by the WIPP Land Withdrawal Act (U.S. Congress, 1996, *8.(f)(1)) and implemented in the EPA Final Rule (U.S. EPA, 1998a). First, the impact of organic ligands on the complexation of a system with multiple cations could be delineated by some simple experiments with Th (IV), citrate,EDTA, Ca2+ and one or more transition metals. An experiment with Pu (IV) could be designed to determine the lability of Pu oxidation states in the presence of organic ligands. Second, the issue of using analogs for Pu could be addressed with appropriate experiments using U and Pu at redox conditions in the range anticipated at the WIPP. Attention to the published experimental results of U and Pu could make a considerable contribution to this effort. Third, the issue of uncertainty in calculated actinide solubility can be resolved with experimental data for Pu (IV) compounds of appropriate compositions. The report also recommends starting by constructing a data base for U and Pu using the published, peer-reviewed OECD/NEA U and Pu data bases.

  15. Platform Li-Ion Battery Risk Assessment Tool: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-10-407

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, K.

    2012-01-01

    Creare was awarded a Phase 1 STTR contract from the US Office of Naval Research, with a seven month period of performance from 6/28/2010 to 1/28/2011. The objectives of the STTR were to determine the feasibility of developing a software package for estimating reliability of battery packs, and develop a user interface to allow the designer to assess the overall impact on battery packs and host platforms for cell-level faults. NREL served as sub-tier partner to Creare, providing battery modeling and battery thermal safety expertise.

  16. Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment for the Operation of the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gallegos, G; Daniels, J; Wegrecki, A

    2007-10-01

    This document contains the human health and ecological risk assessment for the Resource Recovery and Conservation Act (RCRA) permit renewal for the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility (EWTF). Volume 1 is the text of the risk assessment, and Volume 2 (provided on a compact disc) is the supporting modeling data. The EWTF is operated by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) at Site 300, which is located in the foothills between the cities of Livermore and Tracy, approximately 17 miles east of Livermore and 8 miles southwest of Tracy. Figure 1 is a map of the San Francisco Bay Area, showing the location of Site 300 and other points of reference. One of the principal activities of Site 300 is to test what are known as 'high explosives' for nuclear weapons. These are the highly energetic materials that provide the force to drive fissionable material to criticality. LLNL scientists develop and test the explosives and the integrated non-nuclear components in support of the United States nuclear stockpile stewardship program as well as in support of conventional weapons and the aircraft, mining, oil exploration, and construction industries. Many Site 300 facilities are used in support of high explosives research. Some facilities are used in the chemical formulation of explosives; others are locations where explosive charges are mechanically pressed; others are locations where the materials are inspected radiographically for such defects as cracks and voids. Finally, some facilities are locations where the machined charges are assembled before they are sent to the onsite test firing facilities, and additional facilities are locations where materials are stored. Wastes generated from high-explosives research are treated by open burning (OB) and open detonation (OD). OB and OD treatments are necessary because they are the safest methods for treating explosives wastes generated at these facilities, and they eliminate the requirement for further handling and transportation that would be required if the wastes were treated off site.

  17. Progress and interim results of the INPRO joint study on assessment of INS based on closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Usanov, Vladimir; Raj, Baldev; Vasile, Alfredo

    2007-07-01

    The purpose of the work is to review interim results of the Joint Study on assessment of an Innovative Nuclear System based on a Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle with Fast Reactors (INS CNFC-FR). This study is a part of the IAEA international project for innovative reactors and fuel cycle technologies (INPRO). Now it is being implemented by Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and Ukraine. A report on results of implementation of the first phase of the Joint Study was presented to the INPRO Steering Committee meeting in December 2006. It was also agreed by the Joint Study participants to reveal these results to broader discussion at scientific conferences and meetings. The authors' interpretation of the Joint Study findings and issues is presented in the paper. (authors)

  18. Data and methods for the assessment of the risks associated with the maritime transport of radioactive materials: Results of the SeaRAM program studies. Volume 2 -- Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sprung, J.L.; Bespalko, S.J.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1998-05-01

    This report describes ship accident event trees, ship collision and ship fire frequencies, representative ships and shipping practices, a model of ship penetration depths during ship collisions, a ship fire spread model, cask to environment release fractions during ship collisions and fires, and illustrative consequence calculations. This report contains the following appendices: Appendix 1 -- Representative Ships and Shipping Practices; Appendix 2 -- Input Data for Minorsky Calculations; Appendix 3 -- Port Ship Speed Distribution; and Appendix 4 -- Cask-to-Environment Release Fractions.

  19. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) The nation's ...

  20. Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic...

  1. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 3 -- Residential and commercial sector DSM analyses: Detailed results from the DBEDT DSM assessment model; Part 1, Technical potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The Hawaii Demand-Side Management Resource Assessment was the fourth of seven projects in the Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) program. HES was designed by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) to produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. The purpose of Project 4 was to develop a comprehensive assessment of Hawaii`s demand-side management (DSM) resources. To meet this objective, the project was divided into two phases. The first phase included development of a DSM technology database and the identification of Hawaii commercial building characteristics through on-site audits. These Phase 1 products were then used in Phase 2 to identify expected energy impacts from DSM measures in typical residential and commercial buildings in Hawaii. The building energy simulation model DOE-2.1E was utilized to identify the DSM energy impacts. More detailed information on the typical buildings and the DOE-2.1E modeling effort is available in Reference Volume 1, ``Building Prototype Analysis``. In addition to the DOE-2.1E analysis, estimates of residential and commercial sector gas and electric DSM potential for the four counties of Honolulu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai through 2014 were forecasted by the new DBEDT DSM Assessment Model. Results from DBEDTs energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, were linked with results from DOE-2.1E building energy simulation runs and estimates of DSM measure impacts, costs, lifetime, and anticipated market penetration rates in the DBEDT DSM Model. Through its algorithms, estimates of DSM potential for each forecast year were developed. Using the load shape information from the DOE-2.1E simulation runs, estimates of electric peak demand impacts were developed. Numerous tables and figures illustrating the technical potential for demand-side management are included.

  2. Analyzing health risks due to trace substance emissions from utility fossil-fired plants. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    EPRI has undertaken a number of project addressing a range of issues on the potential health effects due to long-term inhalation exposure to trace substances emitted from utility stacks. This report describes particular studies conducted to assess the health risks due to emissions from groups of power plants operated by individual utility companies. Researchers conducted specialized risk assessments for each of the power plants involved by incorporating utility-specific data into a modeling framework developed as part of EPRI`s Comprehensive Risk Evaluation (CORE) project to tailor the analysis for the individual utility. The results indicated the value of using more up-to-date, precise data in conducting risk assessments, rather than default assumptions. The report also describes CRAFT, the Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Toxics software package, developed to perform these utility-wide air toxics risk assessments.

  3. MELTER: A model of the thermal response of cargos transported in the Safe-Secure Trailer subject to fire environments for risk assessment applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, M.E.

    1994-08-01

    MELTER is an analysis of cargo responses inside a fire-threatened Safe-Secure Trailer (SST) developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA). Many simplifying assumptions are required to make the subject problem tractable. MELTER incorporates modeling which balances the competing requirements of execution speed, generality, completeness of essential physics, and robustness. Input parameters affecting the analysis include those defining the fire scenario, those defining the cargo loaded in the SST, and those defining properties of the SST. For a specified fire, SST, and cargo geometry MELTER predicts the critical fire duration that will lead to a failure. The principal features of the analysis include: (a) Geometric considerations to interpret fire-scenario descriptors in terms of a thermal radiation boundary condition, (b) a simple model of the SST`s wall combining the diffusion model for radiation through optically-thick media with an endothermic reaction front to describe the charring of dimensional, rigid foam in the SST wall, (c) a transient radiation enclosure model, (d) a one-dimensional, spherical idealization of the shipped cargos providing modularity so that cargos of interest can be inserted into the model, and (e) associated numerical methods to integrate coupled, differential equations and find roots.

  4. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT ON THE INTEGRATION OF A PROCESS UTILIZING LOW-ENERGY SOLVENTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE ENABLED BY A COMBINATION OF ENZYMES AND VACUUM REGENERATION WITH A SUBCRITICAL PC POWER PLANT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fitzgerald, David; Vidal, Rafael; Russell, Tania; Babcock, Doosan; Freeman, Charles; Bearden, Mark; Whyatt, Greg; Liu, Kun; Frimpong, Reynolds; Lu, Kunlei; Salmon, Sonja; House, Alan; Yarborough, Erin

    2014-12-31

    The results of the preliminary environmental, health and safety (EH&S) risk assessment for an enzyme-activated potassium carbonate (K2CO3) solution post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) plant, integrated with a subcritical pulverized coal (PC) power plant, are presented. The expected emissions during normal steady-state operation have been estimated utilizing models of the PCC plant developed in AspenTechs AspenPlus software, bench scale test results from the University of Kentucky, and industrial experience of emission results from a slipstream PCC plant utilizing amine based solvents. A review of all potential emission species and their sources was undertaken that identified two credible emission sources, the absorber off-gas that is vented to atmosphere via a stack and the waste removed from the PCC plant in the centrifuge used to reclaim enzyme and solvent. The conditions and compositions of the emissions were calculated and the potential EH&S effects were considered as well as legislative compliance requirements. Potential mitigation methods for emissions during normal operation have been proposed and solutions to mitigate uncontrolled releases of species have been considered. The potential emissions were found to pose no significant EH&S concerns and were compliant with the Federal legislation reviewed. The limitations in predicting full scale plant performance from bench scale tests have been noted and further work on a larger scale test unit is recommended to reduce the level of uncertainty.

  5. Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    1 SFTRA Overview Contents * Project and review teams * Purpose and goals * Basic methodology * Improvements relative to previous studies * Draft NUREG structure and format *...

  6. Water Energy Resources of the United States with Emphasis on Low Head/Low Power Resources: Appendix A - Assessment Results by Hydrologic Region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, Douglas

    2004-04-01

    Analytical assessments of the water energy resources in the 20 hydrologic regions of the United States were performed using state-of-the-art digital elevation models and geographic information system tools. The principal focus of the study was on low head (less than 30 ft)/low power (less than 1 MW) resources in each region. The assessments were made by estimating the power potential of all the stream segments in a region, which averaged 2 miles in length. These calculations were performed using hydrography and hydraulic heads that were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Elevation Derivatives for National Applications dataset and stream flow predictions from a regression equation or equations developed specifically for the region. Stream segments excluded from development and developed hydropower were accounted for to produce an estimate of total available power potential. The total available power potential was subdivided into high power (1 MW or more), high head (30 ft or more)/low power, and low head/low power total potentials. The low head/low power potential was further divided to obtain the fractions of this potential corresponding to the operating envelopes of three classes of hydropower technologies: conventional turbines, unconventional systems, and microhydro (less than 100 kW). Summing information for all the regions provided total power potential in various power classes for the entire United States. Distribution maps show the location and concentrations of the various classes of low power potential. No aspect of the feasibility of developing these potential resources was evaluated. Results for each of the 20 hydrologic regions are presented in Appendix A

  7. Water Energy Resources of the United States with Emphasis on Low Head/Low Power Resources: Appendix B - Assessment Results by State

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, Douglas

    2004-04-01

    Analytical assessments of the water energy resources in the 20 hydrologic regions of the United States were performed using state-of-the-art digital elevation models and geographic information system tools. The principal focus of the study was on low head (less than 30 ft)/low power (less than 1 MW) resources in each region. The assessments were made by estimating the power potential of all the stream segments in a region, which averaged 2 miles in length. These calculations were performed using hydrography and hydraulic heads that were obtained from the U.S. Geological Surveys Elevation Derivatives for National Applications dataset and stream flow predictions from a regression equation or equations developed specifically for the region. Stream segments excluded from development and developed hydropower were accounted for to produce an estimate of total available power potential. The total available power potential was subdivided into high power (1 MW or more), high head (30 ft or more)/low power, and low head/low power total potentials. The low head/low power potential was further divided to obtain the fractions of this potential corresponding to the operating envelopes of three classes of hydropower technologies: conventional turbines, unconventional systems, and microhydro (less than 100 kW). Summing information for all the regions provided total power potential in various power classes for the entire United States. Distribution maps show the location and concentrations of the various classes of low power potential. No aspect of the feasibility of developing these potential resources was evaluated. Results for for each of the 50 states are made in Appendix B.

  8. Performance assessment of the direct disposal in unsaturated tuff or spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste owned by USDOE: Volume 2, Methodology and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1995-03-01

    This assessment studied the performance of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel in a hypothetical repository in unsaturated tuff. The results of this 10-month study are intended to help guide the Office of Environment Management of the US Department of Energy (DOE) on how to prepare its wastes for eventual permanent disposal. The waste forms comprised spent fuel and high-level waste currently stored at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and the Hanford reservations. About 700 metric tons heavy metal (MTHM) of the waste under study is stored at INEL, including graphite spent nuclear fuel, highly enriched uranium spent fuel, low enriched uranium spent fuel, and calcined high-level waste. About 2100 MTHM of weapons production fuel, currently stored on the Hanford reservation, was also included. The behavior of the waste was analyzed by waste form and also as a group of waste forms in the hypothetical tuff repository. When the waste forms were studied together, the repository was assumed also to contain about 9200 MTHM high-level waste in borosilicate glass from three DOE sites. The addition of the borosilicate glass, which has already been proposed as a final waste form, brought the total to about 12,000 MTHM.

  9. MCNP6 Results for the Phase III Sensitivity Benchmark of the OCED/NEA Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiedrowski, Brian C.

    2012-06-19

    Within the last decade, there has been increasing interest in the calculation of cross section sensitivity coefficients of k{sub eff} for integral experiment design and uncertainty analysis. The OECD/NEA has an Expert Group devoted to Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis within the Working Party for Nuclear Criticality Safety. This expert group has developed benchmarks to assess code capabilities and performance for doing sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Phase III of a set of sensitivity benchmarks evaluates capabilities for computing sensitivity coefficients. MCNP6 has the capability to compute cross section sensitivities for k{sub eff} using continuous-energy physics. To help verify this capability, results for the Phase III benchmark cases are generated and submitted to the Expert Group for comparison. The Phase III benchmark has three cases: III.1, an array of MOX fuel pins, III.2, a series of infinite lattices of MOX fuel pins with varying pitches, and III.3 two spheres with homogeneous mixtures of UF{sub 4} and polyethylene with different enrichments.

  10. A Radiological Survey Approach to Use Prior to Decommissioning: Results from a Technology Scanning and Assessment Project Focused on the Chornobyl NPP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milchikov, A.; Hund, G.; Davidko, M.

    1999-10-20

    The primary objectives of this project are to learn how to plan and execute the Technology Scanning and Assessment (TSA) approach by conducting a project and to be able to provide the approach as a capability to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) and potentially elsewhere. A secondary objective is to learn specifics about decommissioning and in particular about radiological surveying to be performed prior to decommissioning to help ChNPP decision makers. TSA is a multi-faceted capability that monitors and analyzes scientific, technical, regulatory, and business factors and trends for decision makers and company leaders. It is a management tool where information is systematically gathered, analyzed, and used in business planning and decision making. It helps managers by organizing the flow of critical information and provides managers with information they can act upon. The focus of this TSA project is on radiological surveying with the target being ChNPP's Unit 1. This reactor was stopped on November 30, 1996. At this time, Ukraine failed to have a regulatory basis to provide guidelines for nuclear site decommissioning. This situation has not changed as of today. A number of documents have been prepared to become a basis for a combined study of the ChNPP Unit 1 from the engineering and radiological perspectives. The results of such a study are expected to be used when a detailed decommissioning plan is created.

  11. Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The CNS has purview of over ninety EM nuclear facilities across the DOE complex. To ensure that limited resources are applied in a risk-informed and balanced approach, the CNS performed a methodical assessment of the EM nuclear facilities. This risk-informed approach provides a data-driven foundation on which to construct a balanced set of operating plans and staff assignments.

  12. Results of phase 1 groundwater quality assessment for Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Areas B-BX-BY at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Narbutovskih, S.M.

    1998-02-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a Phase 1 (or first determination) groundwater quality assessment for the US Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office, in accordance with the Federal Facility Compliance Agreement. The purpose of the assessment was to determine if the Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Area (WMA) B-BX-BY has impacted groundwater quality. This report will document the evidence demonstrating that the WMA has impacted groundwater quality.

  13. Risk assessment of K Basin twelve-inch and four-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-06-23

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rate which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. Five four-inch drain valves are located in the north and south loadout pits (NLOP and SLOP), the weasel pit, the technical viewing pit, and the discharge chute pit. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations indicate that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the twelve-inch drain valve and that much less of the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the five four-inch drain valves. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this analysis are to: (1) evaluate the likelihood of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin and the five four-inch drain valves located in the pits from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the likelihood of exceeding a specific consequence (initial leak rate) from a damaged valve. The analysis process is a risk-based uncertainty analysis where each variable is modeled using available information and engineering judgement. The uncertainty associated with each variable is represented by a probability distribution (probability density function). Uncertainty exists because of the inherent randomness associated with the distribution of values that a variable may assume, and because of a lack of knowledge concerning a variable. Engineering judgement and technical information are used to develop the variable probability density functions, but the bounds of the probability density function are based on physical limitations. The uncertainty, described by probability distributions, is propagated through the analysis by Monte Carlo convolution techniques. The corresponding results are developed as a probability distribution and expressed in terms of the corresponding complementary cumulative distribution function (''risk curve'').

  14. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  15. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  16. Results of the 2004 Knowledge and Opinions Surveys for the Baseline Knowledge Assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmoyer, Richard L; Truett, Lorena Faith; Cooper, Christy

    2006-04-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program focuses on overcoming critical barriers to the widespread use of hydrogen fuel cell technology. The transition to a new, hydrogen-based energy economy requires an educated human infrastructure. With this in mind, the DOE Hydrogen Program conducted statistical surveys to measure and establish baselines for understanding and awareness about hydrogen, fuel cells, and a hydrogen economy. The baseline data will serve as a reference in designing an education program, and it will be used in comparisons with future survey results (2008 and 2011) to measure changes in understanding and awareness. Scientific sampling was used to survey four populations: (1) the general public, ages 18 and over; (2) students, ages 12-17; (3) state and local government officials; and (4) potential large-scale hydrogen users. It was decided that the survey design should include about 1,000 individuals in each of the general public and student categories, about 250 state and local officials, and almost 100 large-scale end users. The survey questions were designed to accomplish specific objectives. Technical questions measured technical understanding and awareness of hydrogen technology. Opinion questions measured attitudes about safety, cost, the environment, and convenience, as well as the likelihood of future applications of hydrogen technology. For most of the questions, "I don't know" or "I have no opinion" were acceptable answers. Questions about information sources assessed how energy technology information is received. The General Public and Student Survey samples were selected by random digit dialing. Potential large-scale end users were selected by random sampling. The State and Local Government Survey was of the entire targeted population of government officials (not a random sample). All four surveys were administered by computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). For each population, the length of the survey was less than 15 minutes. Design of an education program is beyond the scope of the report, and comparisons of the baseline data with future results will not be made until the survey is fielded again. Nevertheless, a few observations about the data are salient: For every population group, average scores on the technical knowledge questions were lower for the fuel cell questions than for the other technical questions. State and local officials expressed more confidence in hydrogen safety than large-scale end users, and they were much more confident than either the general public or students. State and local officials also scored much higher on the technical questions. Technical understanding appears to influence opinions about safety. For the General Public, Student, and Large-Scale End User Surveys, respondents with above-average scores on the eleven technical questions were more likely to have an opinion about hydrogen technology safety, and for those respondents who expressed an opinion, their opinion was more likely to be positive. These differences were statistically significant. Using criteria of "Sometimes" or "Frequently" to describe usage, respondents rated media sources for obtaining energy information. The general public and students responded that television is the primary media source of energy information. State and local officials and large-scale end users indicated that their primary media sources are newspapers, the Internet, and science and technology journals. In order of importance, the general public values safety, cost, environment, and convenience. The Large-Scale End User Survey suggests that there is presently little penetration of hydrogen technology; nor is there much planning for it.

  17. Sitewide risk perspectives for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olinger, S.J.; Foppe, T.L.

    1998-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has recently finalized a closure plan (originally called the Ten Year Plan) for closure and environmental cleanup of previous nuclear weapons facilities. The DOE Rocky Flats Field Office has established priorities for risk reduction work to Support closure activities, as well as addressing those hazards associated with storage and management of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals. To provide information for future National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) or other regulatory assessments of specific risk reduction projects identified in the Closure Plan, a risk assessment of normal operations and potential accidents was recently prepared to provide an updated baseline of the cumulative impacts to the worker, public and environment due to the Site`s operations, activities, and environmental conditions in light of the Site`s change in mission, and of future closure projects. This paper summarizes the risk assessment approach, results, and conclusions.

  18. Proposed framework for the Western Area Power Administration Environmental Risk Management Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glantz, C.S.; DiMassa, F.V.; Pelto, P.J.; Brothers, A.J.; Roybal, A.L.

    1994-12-01

    The Western Area Power Administration (Western) views environmental protection and compliance as a top priority as it manages the construction, operation, and maintenance of its vast network of transmission lines, substations, and other facilities. A recent Department of Energy audit of Western`s environmental management activities recommends that Western adopt a formal environmental risk program. To accomplish this goal, Western, in conjunction with Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is in the process of developing a centrally coordinated environmental risk program. This report presents the results of this design effort, and indicates the direction in which Western`s environmental risk program is heading. Western`s environmental risk program will consist of three main components: risk communication, risk assessment, and risk management/decision making. Risk communication is defined as an exchange of information on the potential for threats to human health, public safety, or the environment. This information exchange provides a mechanism for public involvement, and also for the participation in the risk assessment and management process by diverse groups or offices within Western. The objective of risk assessment is to evaluate and rank the relative magnitude of risks associated with specific environmental issues that are facing Western. The evaluation and ranking is based on the best available scientific information and judgment and serves as input to the risk management process. Risk management takes risk information and combines it with relevant non-risk factors (e.g., legal mandates, public opinion, costs) to generate risk management options. A risk management tool, such as decision analysis, can be used to help make risk management choices.

  19. Development of Science-Based Permitting Guidance for Geological Sequestration of CO2 in Deep Saline Aquifers Based on Modeling and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jean-Philippe Nicot; Renaud Bouroullec; Hugo Castellanos; Susan Hovorka; Srivatsan Lakshminarasimhan; Jeffrey Paine

    2006-06-30

    Underground carbon storage may become one of the solutions to address global warming. However, to have an impact, carbon storage must be done at a much larger scale than current CO{sub 2} injection operations for enhanced oil recovery. It must also include injection into saline aquifers. An important characteristic of CO{sub 2} is its strong buoyancy--storage must be guaranteed to be sufficiently permanent to satisfy the very reason that CO{sub 2} is injected. This long-term aspect (hundreds to thousands of years) is not currently captured in legislation, even if the U.S. has a relatively well-developed regulatory framework to handle carbon storage, especially in the operational short term. This report proposes a hierarchical approach to permitting in which the State/Federal Government is responsible for developing regional assessments, ranking potential sites (''General Permit'') and lessening the applicant's burden if the general area of the chosen site has been ranked more favorably. The general permit would involve determining in the regional sense structural (closed structures), stratigraphic (heterogeneity), and petrophysical (flow parameters such as residual saturation) controls on the long-term fate of geologically sequestered CO{sub 2}. The state-sponsored regional studies and the subsequent local study performed by the applicant will address the long-term risk of the particular site. It is felt that a performance-based approach rather than a prescriptive approach is the most appropriate framework in which to address public concerns. However, operational issues for each well (equivalent to the current underground injection control-UIC-program) could follow regulations currently in place. Area ranking will include an understanding of trapping modes. Capillary (due to residual saturation) and structural (due to local geological configuration) trappings are two of the four mechanisms (the other two are solubility and mineral trappings), which are the most relevant to the time scale of interest. The most likely pathways for leakage, if any, are wells and faults. We favor a defense-in-depth approach, in which storage permanence does not rely upon a primary seal only but assumes that any leak can be contained by geologic processes before impacting mineral resources, fresh ground water, or ground surface. We examined the Texas Gulf Coast as an example of an attractive target for carbon storage. Stacked sand-shale layers provide large potential storage volumes and defense-in-depth leakage protection. In the Texas Gulf Coast, the best way to achieve this goal is to establish the primary injection level below the total depth of most wells (>2,400 m-8,000 ft). In addition, most faults, particularly growth faults, present at the primary injection level do not reach the surface. A potential methodology, which includes an integrated approach comprising the whole chain of potential events from leakage from the primary site to atmospheric impacts, is also presented. It could be followed by the State/Federal Government, as well as by the operators.

  20. Applications of risk management to waste combustion in boilers and industrial furnaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chrostowski, P.C.; Foster, S.A.; Kimball, H.J.

    1996-12-31

    Human health and ecological risk assessments have become routine for waste combustion in boilers and industrial furnaces (BIFs) as a result of USEPA`s Combustion Strategy, questions raised by citizens about the health effects of incineration, and the desire for the regulated community to have a level playing field regarding emissions regulations. The USEPA, National Academy of Sciences, various trade organizations, and individual researchers have published widely regarding methods for facility-specific risk assessments. Often these risk assessments are highly complex, site-specific documents that use advanced techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation. However, the risks that are calculated in these risk assessments are usually only used to compare to criteria for health effects and, thereby, develop permit conditions that are protective of health and the environment. Thus, the risk assessment is only used to derive a simple set of numbers and most of the information derived in the complex risk computations is lost. The object of this paper is to demonstrate how to derive more information from risk assessments that can be used in making management decisions. This paper will discuss the theory of risk management and present applications to combustion of waste in BIFs. For example, a permit applicant needed to make a decision among alternative air pollution control (APC) equipment sequences including scrubbers, fabric filters, and electrostatic precipitators. Limited life cycle analysis was used to determine the amount of direct and total waste produced by each of the alternatives. Monte Carlo risk assessment was used to determine the health risks associated with each of the alternatives and reliability analysis was employed to minimize both waste production and health risk.

  1. Results of Phase I groundwater quality assessment for single-shell tank waste management Area S-SX at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, V.G.; Chou, C.J.

    1998-01-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted a Phase I, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) groundwater quality assessment for the Richland Field Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE-RL), in accordance with the Federal Facility Compliance Agreement. The purpose of the investigation was to determine if the Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Area (WMA) S-SX has impacted groundwater quality. The WMA is located in the southern portion of the 200 West Area of the Hanford Site and consists of the 241-S and 241-SX tank farms and ancillary waste systems. The unit is regulated under RCRA interim-status regulations (40 CFR 265, Subpart F) and was placed in assessment groundwater monitoring (40 CFR 265.93 [d]) in August 1996 because of elevated specific conductance and technetium-99, a non-RCRA co-contaminant, in downgradient monitoring wells. Major findings of the assessment are summarized below: (1) Distribution patterns for radionuclides and RCRA/dangerous waste constituents indicate WMA S-SX has contributed to groundwater contamination observed in downgradient monitoring wells. (2) Drinking water standards for nitrate and technetium-99 are currently exceeded in one RCRA-compliant well (299-W22-46) located at the southeastern comer of the SX tank farm. (3) Technetium-99, nitrate, and chromium concentrations in downgradient well 299-W22-46 (the well with the highest current concentrations) appear to be declining after reaching maximum concentrations in May 1997. (4) Cesium-137 and strontium-90, major constituents of concern in single-shell tank waste, were not detected in any of the RCRA-compliant wells in the WMA network, including the well with the highest current technetium-99 concentrations (299-W22-46). (5) Low but detectable strontium-90 and cesium-137 were found in one old well (2-W23-7), located inside and between the S and SX tank farms.

  2. USING RISK-BASED CORRECTIVE ACTION (RBCA) TO ASSESS (THEORETICAL) CANCER DEATHS AVERTED COMPARED TO THE (REAL) COST OF ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, M. L.; Hylko, J. M.

    2002-02-25

    In 1978, on the basis of existing health studies at the time, the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project legislation was proposed that would authorize remedial action at inactive uranium processing sites and vicinity properties. The cost of the program to the Federal Government was expected to be $180 million. With the completion of this project, approximately 1300 theoretical cancer deaths were prevented in the next 100 years at a cost of $1.45 billion, based on the Fiscal Year 1998 Federal UMTRA budget. The individual site costs ranged from $0.2 million up to $18 billion spent per theoretical cancer death averted over the next 100 years. Resources required to sustain remediation activities such as this are subject to reduction over time, and are originally based on conservative assumptions that tend to overestimate risks to the general public. This evaluation used a process incorporating risk-based corrective action (RBCA); a three-tiered, decision-making process tailoring corrective action activities according to site-specific conditions and risks. If RBCA had been applied at the start of the UMTRA Project, and using a criterion of >1 excess cancer death prevented as justification to remediate the site, only 50% of the existing sites would have been remediated, yielding a cost savings of $303.6 million to the Federal Government and affected States, which share 10% of the cost. This cost savings equates to 21% of the overall project budget. In addition, only 22% of the vicinity properties had structural contamination contributing to elevated interior gamma exposure and radon levels. Focusing only on these particular properties could have saved an additional $269.3 million, yielding a total savings of $573 million; 40% of the overall project budget. As operational experience is acquired, including greater understanding of the radiological and nonradiological risks, decisions should be based on the RBCA process, rather than relying on conservative assumptions that tend to overestimate risks to the general public.

  3. Prioritization methodology using hazard analysis results at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sasser, M.K.; Hall, M.; Stack, D.; Brooks, D.G.

    1995-09-01

    Risk management activities, such as prioritizing risk-reducing projects, often are commissioned for facilities as special tasks supported by special task forces and conducted independently of other on-going risk assessment and risk management activities. Many DOE facilities have completed hazard analyses (HAs) as part of their efforts to upgrade their SARs to meet the new DOE standard that was issued in 1994. Although a complete SAR would contain more resource allocation information than the HA, the HA usually is completed before the SAR. This paper describes how SAR results, and particularly HA results, can be used directly to support managers` risk-based prioritization of project funding. This can reduce the time to conduct prioritization modeling, increase the quality of the results, and, perhaps most importantly, integrate the results into the on-going risk management activities of the site.

  4. Climate Risk and Financial Institutions | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Corporation Topics: Finance, Co-benefits assessment Website: www.ifc.orgifcextsustainability.nsfAttachmentsByTitlepClimateRisk Climate Risk and Financial Institutions...

  5. Estimated human health risks of disposing of nonhazardous oil field waste in salt caverns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-09-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. In this assessment, several steps were used to evaluate potential human health risks: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing the contaminants` toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and, finally, calculating human cancer and noncancer risks.

  6. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-18

    Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.

  7. Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    risk-informed and balanced approach, the CNS performed a methodical assessment of the EM nuclear facilities. This risk-informed approach provides a data-driven foundation on which...

  8. RESULTS FROM THE U.S. DOE 2006 SAVE ENERGY NOW ASSESSMENT INITIATIVE: DOE's Partnership with U.S. Industry to Reduce Energy Consumption, Energy Costs, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wright, Anthony L; Martin, Michaela A; Gemmer, Bob; Scheihing, Paul; Quinn, James

    2007-09-01

    In the wake of Hurricane Katrina and other severe storms in 2005, natural gas supplies were restricted, prices rose, and industry sought ways to reduce its natural gas use and costs. In October 2005, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Secretary Bodman launched his Easy Ways to Save Energy campaign with a promise to provide energy assessments to 200 of the largest U.S. manufacturing plants. A major thrust of the campaign was to ensure that the nation's natural gas supplies would be adequate for all Americans, especially during home heating seasons. In a presentation to the National Press Club on October 3, 2005, Secretary Bodman said: 'America's businesses, factories, and manufacturing facilities use massive amounts of energy. To help them during this period of tightening supply and rising costs, our Department is sending teams of qualified efficiency experts to 200 of the nation's most energy-intensive factories. Our Energy Saving Teams will work with on-site managers on ways to conserve energy and use it more efficiently.' DOE's Industrial Technologies Program (ITP) responded to the Secretary's campaign with its Save Energy Now initiative, featuring a new and highly cost-effective form of energy assessments. The approach for these assessments drew heavily on the existing resources of ITP's Technology Delivery component. Over the years, ITP-Technology Delivery had worked with industry partners to assemble a suite of respected software decision tools, proven assessment protocols, training curricula, certified experts, and strong partnerships for deployment. Because of the program's earlier activities and the resources that had been developed, ITP was prepared to respond swiftly and effectively to the sudden need to promote improved industrial energy efficiency. Because of anticipated supply issues in the natural gas sector, the Save Energy Now initiative strategically focused on natural gas savings and targeted the nation's largest manufacturing plants--those that consume a total of 1 trillion British thermal units (Btu) or more annually. The approximately 6800 U.S. facilities that fall into this category collectively account for about 53% of all energy consumed by industry in the United States. The 2006 Save Energy Now energy assessments departed from earlier DOE plant assessments by concentrating solely on steam and process heating systems, which are estimated to account for approximately 74% of all natural gas use for manufacturing. The assessments also integrated a strong training component designed to teach industrial plant personnel how to use DOE's steam or process heating opportunity assessment software tools. This approach had the advantages of promoting strong buy-in of plant personnel for the assessment and its outcomes and preparing them better to independently replicate the assessment process at the company's other facilities. The Save Energy Now initiative also included provisions to help plants that applied for but did not qualify for assessments (based on the 1 trillion Btu criterion). Services offered to these plants included (1) an assessment by one of DOE's 26 university-based Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs), (2) a telephone consultation with a systems expert at the DOE's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Information Center, or (3) other technical materials and services available through ITP (e.g., the Save Energy Now CD). By the end of 2006, DOE had completed all 200 of the promised assessments, identifying potential natural gas savings of more than 50 trillion Btu and energy cost savings of about $500 million. These savings, if fully implemented, could reduce CO2 emissions by 4.04 million metric tons annually. These results, along with the fact that a large percentage of U.S. energy is used by a relatively small number of very large plants, clearly suggest that assessments are an expedient and cost-effective way to significantly affect large amounts of energy use. Building on the success of the 2006 initiative, ITP has expanded the effort in 2007 with the goal of conducting 250 more asse

  9. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Surry Unit 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Breeding, R.J. ); Helton, J.C. ); Murfin, W.B. ); Smith, L.N. )

    1990-10-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Surry Power Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in southeastern Virginia, is operated by the Virginia Electric Power Corp. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. This document, Volume 3, Revision 1, Part 2, provides Appendices A through E to this report. These appendices contain: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; the source term analysis; the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information.

  10. A review of ground-based heavy-ion radiobiology relevant to space radiation risk assessment: Part II. Cardiovascular and immunological effects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blakely, Eleanor A.; Chang, Polly Y.

    2007-02-26

    The future of manned space flight depends on an analysis of the numerous potential risks of travel into deep space. Currently no radiation dose limits have been established for these exploratory missions. To set these standards more information is needed about potential acute and late effects on human physiology from appropriate radiation exposure scenarios, including pertinent radiation types and dose rates. Cancer risks have long been considered the most serious late effect from chronic daily relatively low-dose exposures to the complex space radiation environment. However, other late effects from space radiation exposure scenarios are under study in ground-based accelerator facilities and have revealed some unique particle radiation effects not observed with conventional radiations. A comprehensive review of pertinent literature that considers tissue effects of radiation leading to functional detriments in specific organ systems has recently been published (NCRP National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Information Needed to Make Radiation Protection Recommendations for Space Missions Beyond Low-Earth Orbit, Report 153, Bethesda, MD, 2006). This paper highlights the review of two non-cancer concerns from this report: cardiovascular and immunological effects.

  11. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic-simulation model for a hypothetical site in the Columbia Plateau. Volume 2: results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foley, M.G.; Petrie, G.M.; Baldwin, A.J.; Craig, R.G.

    1982-06-01

    This report contains the input data and computer results for the Geologic Simulation Model. This model is described in detail in the following report: Petrie, G.M., et. al. 1981. Geologic Simulation Model for a Hypothetical Site in the Columbia Plateau, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington. The Geologic Simulation Model is a quasi-deterministic process-response model which simulates, for a million years into the future, the development of the geologic and hydrologic systems of the ground-water basin containing the Pasco Basin. Effects of natural processes on the ground-water hydrologic system are modeled principally by rate equations. The combined effects and synergistic interactions of different processes are approximated by linear superposition of their effects during discrete time intervals in a stepwise-integration approach.

  12. Examination of Risk Analysis Methods for MOX Land Transport in Japan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HOHNSTREITER, GLENN FREDRICK; PIERCE, JIM D.

    2003-04-01

    This report presents background information and methodology for a risk assessment of mixed oxide (MOX) reactor fuel transport in the nation of Japan to support their nuclear energy program. This work includes an extensive literature review, a review of other MOX activities worldwide, a survey of the statutory requirements for transporting nuclear materials, a discussion of risk assessment methodology, and calculation results for specific examples. Typical risk evaluations are given to provide guidance for later risk analyses specific to MOX fuel transport in Japan. This report also includes specific information that will be required for routes, cask types, accident-rate statistics, and population densities along specified routes, along with other detailed information needed for risk analysis studies pertinent to MOX transport in Japan. This information will be used in future specific risk studies.

  13. ORISE: Radiological program assessment services

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Radiological program assessment services Minimizing the risk of human exposure to hazardous levels of radioactive materials requires designing a comprehensive safety program that...

  14. Section 34: Results of Performance Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2004 Recertification of U.S. EPA 2010b) Table 34-3. CRA-2014 PA Statistics on the Overall Mean for Total Normalized Releases at Probabilities of 0.1 and 0.001, All Replicates...

  15. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated risk assessment that could assist in the EM prioritization efforts. (authors)

  16. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Each Federal agency: (a) shall make it a high priority to identify and assess environmental health risks and safety risks that may disproportionately affect children; and (b) shall ensure that its...

  17. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  18. An Assessment of health risk associated with mercury in soil and sediment from East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Revis, N.; Holdsworth, G.; Bingham, G.; King, A.; Elmore, J.

    1989-04-01

    This report presents results from a study conducted to determine the toxicity of Mercury in soils sediments samples. Mice were fed via diet, soils and sediment, from various locations along the East Fork Poplar creek. Tissue distribution of pollutants was determined at various intervals. The tissue level relative to toxicity was used to determine the effect of a complex matrix on the gastrointestinal absorption and tissue distribution of the pollutants (other pollutants included cadmium and selenium).

  19. Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

    2011-11-01

    As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operating plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.

  20. Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosa, Eugene; Dietz, Tom; Moss, Richard H.; Atran, Scott; Moser, Susanne

    2012-04-07

    Society has difficult decisions to make about how best to allocate its resources to ensure future sustainability. Risk assessment can be a valuable tool: it has long been used to support decisions to address environmental problems. But in a time when the risks to sustainability range from climate change to terrorism, applying risk assessment to sustainability will require careful rethinking. For new threats, we will need a new approach to risk assessment.

  1. Microsoft Word - Appendix B_RiskAssessmenr.doc

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Risk Assessment Information U.S. Department of Energy Weldon Spring Site LTS&M Plan July 2005 Doc. No. S0079000 Page B-3 Summary of Post-Remediation Risk Status at the Weldon Spring Site Baseline risk assessments addressing both human health and ecological risks were performed as part of the remedial investigation phase of the remedial investigation/feasibility study processes conducted. A limited assessment was performed for the Quarry Bulk Waste Operable Unit (OU) consistent with the

  2. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants (Cooperative Agreement DE-FC03-99SF21902, Am. M004) Final Technical Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stanley E. Ritterbusch, et. al.

    2003-01-29

    OAK-B135 Research under this project addresses the barriers to long term use of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. It was agreed that a very basic and significant change to the current method of design and regulation was needed. That is, it was believed that the cost reduction goal could not be met by fixing the current system (i.e., an evolutionary approach) and a new, more advanced approach for this project would be needed. It is believed that a completely new design and regulatory process would have to be developed--a ''clean sheet of paper'' approach. This new approach would start with risk-based methods, would establish probabilistic design criteria, and would implement defense-in-depth only when necessary (1) to meet public policy issues (e.g., use of a containment building no matter how low the probability of a large release is) and (2) to address uncertainties in probabilistic methods and equipment performance. This new approach is significantly different from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) current risk-informed program for operating plants. For our new approach, risk-based methods are the primary means for assuring plant safety, whereas in the NRC's current approach, defense-in-depth remains the primary means of assuring safety. The primary accomplishments in the first year--Phase 1 were (1) the establishment of a new, highly risk-informed design and regulatory framework, (2) the establishment of the preliminary version of the new, highly risk-informed design process, (3) core damage frequency predictions showing that, based on new, lower pipe rupture probabilities, the design of the emergency core cooling system equipment can be simplified without reducing plant safety, and (4) the initial development of methods for including uncertainties in a new integrated structures-systems design model. Under the new regulatory framework, options for the use of ''design basis accidents'' were evaluated. It is expected that design basis accidents would be an inherent part of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the plant and their evaluation would be probabilistic. Other first year accomplishments include (1) the conversion of an NRC database for cross-referencing NRC criteria and industry codes and standards to Microsoft 2000 software, (2) an assessment of the NRC's hearing process which concluded that the normal cross-examination during public hearings is not actually required by the U.S. Administrative Procedures Act, (3) the identification and listing of reliability data sources, and (4) interfacing with other industry groups (e.g., NEI and IAEA) and NRC at workshops for risk-informing regulations. The major accomplishments during the second year consisted of (1) issuance of the final report for Subtask 1.1, ''Identify Current Applicable Regulatory Requirements [and Industry Standards],'' (2) issuance of the final report for Subtask 1.2,'' Identify Structures, Systems, and Components and Their Associate d Costs for a Typical Plant,'' (3) extension of the new, highly risk-informed design and regulatory framework to non-light-water-reactor technology, (4) completion of more detailed thermal-hydraulic and probabilistic analyses of advanced conceptual reactor system/component designs, (6) initial evaluation and recommendations for improvement of the NRC design review process, and (7) initial development of the software format, procedures and statistical routines needed to store, analyze and retrieve the available reliability data. Final reports for Subtasks 1.1 (regulatory and design criteria) and 1.2 (costs for structures, systems, and components) were prepared and issued. A final report for Subtask 1.3 (Regulatory Framework) was drafted with the aim to issue it in Phase 3 (Year 3). One technical report was produced for Subtask 1.4 (methods development) and two technical reports were produced for Subtask 1.6 (sample problem analysis). An interim report on the NRC design review process (Subtask 1.7) was prepared and issued. Finally, a report on Subtask 2.2 (database weaknesses) addressed the i

  3. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.

  4. Risk Assessment of Energy-Efficient Walls

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pallin, Simon B.; Hun, Diana E.; Jackson, Roderick K.; Kehrer, Manfred

    2014-12-01

    This multi-year project aims to provide the residential construction industry with energy-efficient wall designs that are moisture durable. The present work focused on the initial step of this project, which is to develop a moisture durability protocol that identifies energy efficient wall designs that have a low probability of experiencing moisture problems.

  5. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... unignited releases from a user-defined hydrogen installation Questions Addressed Given a ... Will this enhance system safety? (If used with an economic model: is the increase in ...

  6. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    of Energy has numerous facilities which require deactivation and decommissioning (D&D). ... for final status surveys to confirm the completion of radiological decontamination. ...

  7. PERFORMANCE AND RISK ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Sandia National Laboratories Steve ThomasKent Rosenberger Savannah River Remediation Stewart Walker EPA, HQ Cheryl WhalenDib Goswami State of Washington, Department of Ecology...

  8. 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

    2010-11-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

  9. Air Risk Information Support Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shoaf, C.R.; Guth, D.J.

    1990-12-31

    The Air Risk Information Support Center (Air RISC) was initiated in early 1988 by the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA) Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) and the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) as a technology transfer effort that would focus on providing information to state and local environmental agencies and to EPA Regional Offices in the areas of health, risk, and exposure assessment for toxic air pollutants. Technical information is fostered and disseminated by Air RISCs three primary activities: (1) a {open_quotes}hotline{close_quotes}, (2) quick turn-around technical assistance projects, and (3) general technical guidance projects. 1 ref., 2 figs.

  10. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies. Revision 5/94

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which man is routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies. This report is not a risk assessment; nor does it contain instructions on how to do a risk assessment. Rather, it provides background information on how most of us think about risks and why it is difficult to do it rationally, it provides a philosophy and data with which to do a better job of judging risks more rationally, and it provides an overview of where risks of energy technologies fit within the spectrum of all risks. Much of the quantitative information provided here is on relative risk of dying of various causes. This is not because risk of dying is seen as the most important kind of risk, but because the statistics on mortality rates by cause are the highest quality data available on health risks in the general population.

  11. Risk Management RM

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    performance, schedule, and cost risks. Once risks are identified, sound risk mitigation strategies and actions should be developed and documented. This approach is further...

  12. Probabilistic Vulnerability Assessment Based on Power Flow and Voltage Distribution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Wong, Pak C.; Ferryman, Thomas A.

    2010-04-30

    Risk assessment of large scale power systems has been an important problem in power system reliability study. Probabilistic technique provides a powerful tool to solve the task. In this paper, we present the results of a study on probabilistic vulnerability assessment on WECC system. Cumulant based expansion method is applied to obtain the probabilistic distribution function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of power flows on transmission lines and voltage. Overall risk index based on the system vulnerability analysis is calculated using the WECC system. The simulation results based on WECC system is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The methodology can be applied to the risk analysis on large scale power systems.

  13. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy?s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user?s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  14. PARALLELS OF RADIATION- AND FINANCIAL-RISK MANAGEMENT ON PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hogue, M.

    2010-01-04

    The financial collapse of 2007 provides an opportunity for a cross-discipline comparison of risk assessments. Flaws in financial risk assessments bear part of the blame for the financial collapse. There may be a potential for similar flaws to be made in radiological risk assessments. Risk assessments in finance and health physics are discussed in the context of a broader view of the risk management environment. Flawed risk assessments can adversely influence public acceptance of radiological technologies, so the importance of quality is magnified.

  15. Development and validation of instantaneous risk model in nuclear power plant's risk monitor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L.

    2012-07-01

    The instantaneous risk model is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a risk monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous risk model. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline risk model to the instantaneous risk model were studied and separated trains' failure modes modeling method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's risk monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous risk model and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline risk model. (authors)

  16. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tuxen, L.

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  17. Proceedings of the Twenty-First Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting: Volume 1, Plenary session; Advanced reactor research; advanced control system technology; advanced instrumentation and control hardware; human factors research; probabilistic risk assessment topics; thermal hydraulics; thermal hydraulic research for advanced passive LWRs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteleone, S.

    1994-04-01

    This three-volume report contains 90 papers out of the 102 that were presented at the Twenty-First Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting held at the Bethesda Marriott Hotel, Bethesda, Maryland, during the week of October 25--27, 1993. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Switzerland, Taiwan, and United Kingdom. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. Individual papers have been cataloged separately. This document, Volume 1 covers the following topics: Advanced Reactor Research; Advanced Instrumentation and Control Hardware; Advanced Control System Technology; Human Factors Research; Probabilistic Risk Assessment Topics; Thermal Hydraulics; and Thermal Hydraulic Research for Advanced Passive Light Water Reactors.

  18. Information needs for risk management/communication

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bennett, D.A.

    1990-12-31

    The hazardous waste cleanup program under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund) is delegated to the ten Regions of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has, to date, identified more than 33,000 sites for consideration. The size and complexity of the program places great demands on those who would provide information to achieve national consistency in application of risk assessment while meeting site-specific needs for risk management and risk communication.

  19. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-01-12

    The purpose of this guide is to describe effective risk management processes. The continuous and iterative process includes updating project risk documents and the risk management plan and emphasizes implementation communication of the risks and actions taken.

  20. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs.

  1. The Department of Energy Releases Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline for Public Comment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Public-Private Sector Collaboration Produces Guidance to Help Electric UtilitiesBetter Understand and Assess Cybersecurity Risk

  2. E-Area Performance Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  3. Risk analyses for disposing of nonhazardous oil field wastes in salt caverns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-09-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed of in domal salt caverns. In this assessment, several steps were used to evaluate potential human health risks: identifying potential contaminants of concern; determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants; assessing the contaminants` toxicities; estimating contaminant intakes; and, finally, calculating human cancer and noncancer risks. Potential human health risks associated with hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) in NOW were assessed under four postclosure cavern release scenarios: inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks or leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. To estimate potential human health risks for these scenarios, contaminant concentrations at the receptor were calculated using a one-dimensional solution to an advection/dispersion equation that included first order degradation. Even under worst-case conditions, the risks have been found to be within the US EPA target range for acceptable exposure levels. From a human health risk perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for NOW.

  4. Letter and Risk Assessment: Post Cleanup Risk Assessment for the Southeast Drainage.

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

  5. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.

  6. Independent Oversight Assessment, Pantex Plant - November 2012...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment, Pantex Plant - November 2012 November 2012 Assessment of Nuclear Safety Culture at the Pantex Plant This report provides the results of an independent assessment of...

  7. Fuzzy Risk Analyzer

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1994-03-04

    FRA is a general purpose code for risk analysis using fuzzy, not numeric, attributes. It allows the user to evaluate the risk associated with a composite system on the basis of the risk estimates of the individual components.

  8. Office of Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation Office of Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation MISSION The Office of Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation provides analysis and evaluation of the performance of the Office of Enterprise Assessments (EA) in meeting its missions of providing Departmental independent assessments, enforcement and training including the impact of the Office activities on the ability of the Department to meet its missions. The Office also provides analysis of major Departmental and

  9. Remedial Action Assessment System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1997-02-01

    RAAS1.1 is a software-based system designed to assist remediation professionals at each stage of the environmental analysis process. RAAS1.1 provides a template for environmental restoration analysis, and provides the user with key results at each step in the analysis. RAAS1.1 assists the user to develop a coherent and consistent site description, estimate baseline and residual risk to public health from the contaminated site, identify applicable environmental restoration technologies, and formulate feasible remedial response alternatives. Inmore » addition, the RAAS1.1 methodology allows the user to then assess and compare those remedial response alternatives across EPA criteria, including: compliance with objectives; short-term and long-term effectiveness; extent of treatment; and implementability of the technologies. The analytic methodology is segmented and presented in a standardized, concise, easy-to-use format that can be viewed on the personal computer screen, saved and further manipulated, or printed for later use. Each screen and analytic step is accessed via a user-friendly personal computer graphical interface. Intuitively-designed buttons, menus, and lists help the user focus in on the particular information and analysis component of interest; the corresponding results are presented in a format that facilitates their use in decision-making.« less

  10. Enterprise Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Framework The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework includes four steps: identify the risks, determine the probability and impact of each one, identify controls that are...

  11. Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015. PDF icon Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities More Documents & Publications 2014 Congressional Nuclear Cleanup Caucus Briefings OREM Hosts Community Workshop Status Updates on the Performance and Risk

  12. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  13. Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss; Kevin Coyne; Don Marksberry

    2010-06-01

    Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the events risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.

  14. Assessment Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... SCADA Assessments Since 1999, Sandia has conducted numerous assessments of operational systems in hydroelectric dams; water treatment systems; electric power transmission, ...

  15. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakagemore » simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.« less

  16. EO 13045: Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks (1997) (As Amended by EO 13229 (2001) and EO 13296 (2003))

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Each Federal agency: (a) shall make it a high priority to identify and assess environmental health risks and safety risks that may disproportionately affect children; and (b) shall ensure that its...

  17. Systems approach to project risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kindinger, J. P.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  18. Hanford Site Waste Management Area C Performance Assessment | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Assessment Hanford Site Waste Management Area C Performance Assessment Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015. PDF icon Hanford Site Waste Management Area C Performance Assessment More Documents & Publications Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) WM2014 Conference - Building the

  19. State and national energy environmental risk analysis systems for underground injection control. Final report, April 7, 1992--May 31, 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    The purpose of this effort is to develop and demonstrate the concept of a national Energy and Environmental Risk Analysis System that could support DOE policy analysis and decision-making. That effort also includes the development and demonstration of a methodology for assessing the risks of groundwater contamination from underground injection operations. EERAS is designed to enhance DOE`s analytical capabilities by working with DOE`s existing resource analysis models for oil and gas. The full development of EERAS was not planned as part of this effort. The design and structure for the system were developed, along with interfaces that facilitate data input to DOE`s other analytical tools. The development of the database for EERAS was demonstrated with the input of data related to underground injection control, which also supported the risk assessment being performed. The utility of EERAS has been demonstrated by this effort and its continued development is recommended. Since the absolute risk of groundwater contamination due to underground injection is quite low, the risk assessment methodology focuses on the relative risk of groundwater contamination. The purpose of this methodology is to provide DOE with an enhanced understanding of the relative risks posed nationwide as input to DOE decision-making and resource allocation. Given data problems encountered, a broad assessment of all oil reservoirs in DOE`s resource database was not possible. The methodology was demonstrated using a sample of 39 reservoirs in 15 states. While data difficulties introduce substantial uncertainties, the results found are consistent with expectations and with prior analyses. Therefore the methodology for performing assessments appears to be sound. Recommendations on steps that can be taken to resolve uncertainties or obtain improved data are included in the report.

  20. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  1. Assessing Beyond Design Basis Seismic Events and Implications on Seismic

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk | Department of Energy Assessing Beyond Design Basis Seismic Events and Implications on Seismic Risk Assessing Beyond Design Basis Seismic Events and Implications on Seismic Risk September 19, 2012 Presenter: Jeffrey Kimball, Technical Specialist (Seismologist) Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Topics Covered: Department of Energy Approach to Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design (Seismic) Design Basis and Beyond Design Basis Seismic Events Seismic Risk Implications - Key

  2. Lessons about vulnerability assessments.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnston, R. G.

    2004-01-01

    The Vulnerability Assessment Team (VAT) at Los Alamos National Laboratory believes that physical security can only be optimized through the use of effective vulnerability assessments. As a result of conducting vulnerability assessments on hundreds of different security devices and systems in the last few years, we have identified some of the attributes of effective assessments. These, along with our recommendations and observations about vulnerability assessments, are summarized in this paper. While our work has primarily involved physical security (in contrast to, for example, computer, network, or information security), our experiences may have applicability to other types of security as well.

  3. Risks of LNG and LPG. [Review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fay, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    Since the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) as fuels is likely to increase and will certainly persist for some time to come, assessment of the safety of LNG/LPG systems will continue to draw attention and is quite likely to force continuing review of operating and design standards for LNG/LPG facilities. Scientific investigations to date appear to have identified the major hazards. Except for the dispersive behavior of vapor clouds - a not-insignificant factor in risk evaluation - the consequences of spills are well circumscribed by current analyses. The physically significant effects accompanying nonexplosive combustion of spilled material are fairly well documented; yet, potentially substantial uncertainties remain. Catastrophic spills of 10/sup 4/-10/sup 5/ m/sup 3/ on land or water are possible, given the current size of storage vessels. Almost all experimental spills have used less than 10 m/sup 3/ of liquid. There is thus some uncertainty regarding the accuracy and validity of extrapolation of current empirical information and physical models to spills of catastrophic size. The less-likely but still-possible explosive or fireball combustion modes are not well understood in respect to their inception. The troubling experience with such violent combustion of similar combustible vapors suggests that this possibility will need further definition. Extant LNG and LPG risk analyses illustrate the difficulties of substantiating the numerous event probabilities and the determination of all event sequences that can lead to hazardous consequences. Their disparate results show that significant improvements are needed. Most importantly, a detailed critique of past efforts and a determination of an exhaustive set of criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a risk analysis should precede any further attempts to improve on existing studies. 44 references, 1 table.

  4. Comparison of AB2588 multipathway risk factors for California fossil-fuel power stations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L.

    1997-12-31

    Substances released from power plants may travel through various exposure pathways resulting in human health and environmental risks. The stack air emission`s primary pathway is inhalation from the ambient air. Multipathway factors (adjustment factors to the inhalation risk) are used to evaluate the importance of non-inhalation pathways (such as ingestion and dermal contact). The multipathway factor for a specific substance is the health risk by all pathways divided by the inhalation health risk for that substance. These factors are compared for fossil fuel power stations that submitted regulatory risk assessments in compliance with California Toxic Hot Spots Act (AB2588). Substances representing the largest contributions to the cancer risk are of primary concern: arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium (+6), formaldehyde, nickel, lead, selenium, and PAHs. Comparisons of the chemical-specific multipathway factors show the impacts of regulatory policy decisions on the estimated health risk for trace substances. As an example, point estimates of the soil mixing depth, varying from 1 cm to 15 cm, relate to the relative importance of the pathway. For the deeper mixing depths, the root-zone uptake by homegrown tomato plants (for assumed consumption rate of 15% for San Diego) may result in high multipathway factors for several trace metals. For shallower mixing depths, soil ingestion may become the dominant non-inhalation pathway. These differences may lead to significantly different risk estimates for similar facilities located at different California locations such as to be under local regulatory authorities. The overall multipathway factor for the total cancer risk is about 2, much smaller than some of the chemical-specific factors. Science-based multipathway analysis should reduce much of the concern that may be due to policy-based decisions on pathway selection and high-value point-estimates of the parameters.

  5. An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

    2003-09-01

    This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to an aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.

  6. EA-1782: Avian and Bat Surveillance and Assessment Plan Timeline...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The conclusion of that evaluation was that "impacts are likely to be minimal and not biologically significant." (Phase I Avian Risk Assessment, Kerlinger and Guarnaccia, January ...

  7. Loan Specialist (Risk Management)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position is located in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Loan Programs Office (LPO), Risk Management Division (RMD), and Enterprise Risk Management & Compliance Branch. The LPO mission...

  8. Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Model The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model is a system used to analyze the cost and benefit of addressing risks inherent in the work performed by the Department of Energy....

  9. Report on the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Program's 2009 Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    NREL conducted an annual program risk analysis on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP). NREL implemented a probabilistic risk analysis of GTP-sponsored research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) work, primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The analysis examined estimates of improvement potential derived from program RD&D work for two types of technology performance metric (TPM): EGS-enabling technologies potential and EGS cost improvement potential. Four risk teams (exploration, wells/pumps/tools, reservoir engineering, and power conversion) comprised of industry experts, DOE laboratory researchers, academic researchers, and laboratory subcontractors estimated the RD&D impacts and TPM-improvement probability distributions. The assessment employed a risk analysis spreadsheet add-in that uses Monte Carlo simulation to drive the Geothermal Electric Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM). The GETEM-based risk analysis used baseline data from the experts' discussion of multiple reports and data sources. Risk results are expressed in terms of each metric's units and/or the program's top-level metric: levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Results--both qualitative comments and quantitative improvement potential--are thorough and cohesive in three of the four expert groups. This conference paper summarizes the industry's current thinking on various metrics and potential for research improvement in geothermal technologies.

  10. Models and Results Database (MAR-D), Version 4. 0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Branham-Haar, K.A.; Dinneen, R.A.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L. )

    1992-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC-RES) is presently funding the development of the Models and Results Database (MAR-D) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. MAR-D's primary function is to create a data repository for NUREG-1150 and other permanent data by providing input, conversion, and output capabilities for data used by IRRAS, SARA, SETS, and FRANTIC personal computer (PC) codes. As probabilistic risk assessments and individual plant examinations are submitted to the NRC for review, MAR-D can be used to convert the models and results from the study for use with IRRAS and SARA. Then, these data can be easily accessed by future studies and will be in a form that will enhance the analysis process. This reference manual provides an overview of the function available within MAR-D and step-by-step operating instructions.

  11. Risk associated with the use of barriers in hydrogen refueling stations.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Phillips, Jesse; Houf, William G.

    2010-03-01

    Separation distances are used in hydrogen refueling stations to protect people, structures, and equipment from the consequences of accidental hydrogen releases. Specifically, hydrogen jet flames resulting from ignition of unintended releases can be extensive in length and pose significant radiation and impingement hazards. Depending on the leak diameter and source pressure, the resulting separation distances can be unacceptably large. One possible mitigation strategy to reduce exposure to hydrogen flames is to incorporate barriers around hydrogen storage, process piping, and delivery equipment. The effectiveness of barrier walls to reduce hazards at hydrogen facilities has been previously evaluated using experimental and modeling information developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The effect of barriers on the risk from different types of hazards including direct flame contact, radiation heat fluxes, and overpressures associated with delayed hydrogen ignition has subsequently been evaluated and used to identify potential reductions in separation distances in hydrogen facilities. Both the frequency and consequences used in this risk assessment and the risk results are described. The results of the barrier risk analysis can also be used to help establish risk-informed barrier design requirements for use in hydrogen codes and standards.

  12. Risk of Salivary Gland Cancer After Childhood Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boukheris, Houda; Stovall, Marilyn; Gilbert, Ethel S.; Stratton, Kayla L.; Smith, Susan A.; Weathers, Rita; Hammond, Sue; Mertens, Ann C.; Donaldson, Sarah S.; Armstrong, Gregory T.; Robison, Leslie L.; Neglia, Joseph P.; Inskip, Peter D.

    2013-03-01

    Purpose: To evaluate effects of radiation therapy, chemotherapy, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption on the risk of second primary salivary gland cancer (SGC) in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS). Methods and Materials: Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of SGC in the CCSS were calculated using incidence rates from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results population-based cancer registries. Radiation dose to the salivary glands was estimated based on medical records. Poisson regression was used to assess risks with respect to radiation dose, chemotherapy, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Results: During the time period of the study, 23 cases of SGC were diagnosed among 14,135 childhood cancer survivors. The mean age at diagnosis of the first primary cancer was 8.3 years, and the mean age at SGC diagnosis was 24.8 years. The incidence of SGC was 39-fold higher in the cohort than in the general population (SIR = 39.4; 95% CI = 25.4-57.8). The EAR was 9.8 per 100,000 person-years. Risk increased linearly with radiation dose (excess relative risk = 0.36/Gy; 95% CI = 0.06-2.5) and remained elevated after 20 years. There was no significant trend of increasing risk with increasing dose of chemotherapeutic agents, pack-years of cigarette smoking, or alcohol intake. Conclusion: Although the cumulative incidence of SGC was low, childhood cancer survivors treated with radiation experienced significantly increased risk for at least 2 decades after exposure, and risk was positively associated with radiation dose. Results underscore the importance of long-term follow up of childhood cancer survivors for the development of new malignancies.

  13. Quality Procedure - Independent Assessments | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Independent Assessments Quality Procedure - Independent Assessments This procedure establishes the process for planning, performing, and reporting Independent Assessments (i.e., assist visits, program/project reviews, direct observations, etc.) as conducted by the Office of Standards and Quality Assurance. Independent assessments are performed at EM Headquarters and Field Offices to determine compliance to requirements and to identify systemic issues, potential risk, emerging issues, and for

  14. Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) Performance Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  15. National Geothermal Resource Assessment and Classification

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This work will enable lower risk/cost deployment of conventional and EGS geothermal power. USGS is also supporting GTP input to DOE National Energy Modeling by providing resource assessment data by geothermal region as input to GTP supply curves.

  16. Quality Assurance for Performance Assessment Modeling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  17. Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Methods Development Work

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Curtis L; Ma, Zhegang; Tom Riley; Mandelli, Diego; Nielsen, Joseph W; Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes the research activity developed during the Fiscal year 2014 within the Risk Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) campaign. This research activity is complementary to the one presented in the INL/EXT-??? report which shows advances Probabilistic Risk Assessment Analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7 in conjunction to novel flooding simulation tools. Here we present several analyses that prove the values of the RISMC approach in order to assess risk associated to nuclear power plants (NPPs). We focus on simulation based PRA which, in contrast to classical PRA, heavily employs system simulator codes. Firstly we compare, these two types of analyses, classical and RISMC, for a Boiling water reactor (BWR) station black out (SBO) initiating event. Secondly we present an extended BWR SBO analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-5 which address the comments and suggestions received about he original analysis presented in INL/EXT-???. This time we focus more on the stochastic analysis such probability of core damage and on the determination of the most risk-relevant factors. We also show some preliminary results regarding the comparison between RELAP5-3D and the new code RELAP-7 for a simplified Pressurized Water Reactors system. Lastly we present some conceptual ideas regarding the possibility to extended the RISMC capabilities from an off-line tool (i.e., as PRA analysis tool) to an online-tool. In this new configuration, RISMC capabilities can be used to assist and inform reactor operator during real accident scenarios.

  18. Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosa, Eugene; Dietz, Tom; Moss, Richard H.; Atran, Scott; Moser, Susanne

    2012-04-07

    The article describes challenges to comparative risk assessment, a key approach for managing uncertainty in decision making, across diverse threats such as terrorism and climate change and argues new approaches will be particularly important in addressing decisions related to sustainability.

  19. Recommendation 206: Asses risks and benefits | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    6: Asses risks and benefits Recommendation 206: Asses risks and benefits The ORSSAB recommends DOE assess the risks and benefits associated with the transportation of hazardous materials by truck and rail. PDF icon Recommendation 206 PDF icon DOE response to recommendation 206 More Documents & Publications EM SSAB Recommendations and Letters - 2011-03 2011-03 "Using Rail transport for Moving Waste" EIS-0380-SA-01: Supplement Analysis

  20. Risk Analysis | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Analysis Almost any new technology involves some risk. Risks involved in working with ... (FMEA), a risk mitigation plan, and a communication plan, is used as a criterion for the ...