Sample records for regulatory uncertainties vary

  1. Carbon capture retrofits and the cost of regulatory uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reinelt, P.S.; Keith, D.W. [SUNY College of Fredonia, Fredonia, NY (United States). Dept. of Economics

    2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm's ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.

  2. Quantification of uncertainty in reservoir simulations influenced by varying input geological parameters, Maria Reservoir, CaHu Field 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schepers, Karine Chrystel

    2005-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

    QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN RESERVOIR SIMULATIONS INFLUENCED BY VARYING INPUT GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS, MARIA RESERVOIR, CAHU FIELD A Thesis by KARINE CHRYSTEL SCHEPERS Submitted to the Office of Graduate... BY VARYING INPUT GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS, MARIA RESERVOIR, CAHU FIELD A Thesis by KARINE CHRYSTEL SCHEPERS Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree...

  3. Quantification of uncertainty in reservoir simulations influenced by varying input geological parameters, Maria Reservoir, CaHu Field

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schepers, Karine Chrystel

    2005-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

    QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN RESERVOIR SIMULATIONS INFLUENCED BY VARYING INPUT GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS, MARIA RESERVOIR, CAHU FIELD A Thesis by KARINE CHRYSTEL SCHEPERS Submitted to the Office of Graduate... BY VARYING INPUT GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS, MARIA RESERVOIR, CAHU FIELD A Thesis by KARINE CHRYSTEL SCHEPERS Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree...

  4. Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

  5. Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

  6. Regulatory Tools

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberg and SondershausenRegulatory

  7. Uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

  8. Cosmology with Varying Constants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. J. A. P. Martins

    2000-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

    I motivate and discuss some recent work on theories with varying constants, and consider some possible observational consequences and tests. Particular emphasis is given to models which can (almost) exactly mimic the predictions of standard inflationary models.

  9. Varying constants quantum cosmology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katarzyna Leszczynska; Adam Balcerzak; Mariusz P. Dabrowski

    2015-01-26T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss minisuperspace models within the framework of varying physical constants theories including $\\Lambda$-term. In particular, we consider the varying speed of light (VSL) theory and varying gravitational constant theory (VG) using the specific ans\\"atze for the variability of constants: $c(a) = c_0 a^n$ and $G(a)=G_0 a^q$. We find that most of the varying $c$ and $G$ minisuperspace potentials are of the tunneling type which allows to use WKB approximation of quantum mechanics. Using this method we show that the probability of tunneling of the universe "from nothing" ($a=0)$ to a Friedmann geometry with the scale factor $a_t$ is large for growing $c$ models and is strongly suppressed for diminishing $c$ models. As for $G$ varying, the probability of tunneling is large for $G$ diminishing, while it is small for $G$ increasing. In general, both varying $c$ and $G$ change the probability of tunneling in comparison to the standard matter content (cosmological term, dust, radiation) universe models.

  10. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  11. Plans, Updates, Regulatory Documents

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stewardship Environmental Protection Obeying Environmental Laws Individual Permit Documents Individual Permit: Plans, Updates, Regulatory Documents1335769200000Plans...

  12. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  13. Long term infrastructure investments under uncertainty in the electric power sector using approximate dynamic programming techniques

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seelhof, Michael

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A computer model was developed to find optimal long-term investment strategies for the electric power sector under uncertainty with respect to future regulatory regimes and market conditions. The model is based on a ...

  14. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/ REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/ REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS Area and Regulatory Amendments for Bering Sea Habitat Conservation May 2008 Lead Agency: National Juneau, AK 99802 (907) 586-7228 Abstract: This Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review

  15. Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

    2012-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

  16. Quantifying uncertainty from material inhomogeneity.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Boyce, Brad Lee

    2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Most engineering materials are inherently inhomogeneous in their processing, internal structure, properties, and performance. Their properties are therefore statistical rather than deterministic. These inhomogeneities manifest across multiple length and time scales, leading to variabilities, i.e. statistical distributions, that are necessary to accurately describe each stage in the process-structure-properties hierarchy, and are ultimately the primary source of uncertainty in performance of the material and component. When localized events are responsible for component failure, or when component dimensions are on the order of microstructural features, this uncertainty is particularly important. For ultra-high reliability applications, the uncertainty is compounded by a lack of data describing the extremely rare events. Hands-on testing alone cannot supply sufficient data for this purpose. To date, there is no robust or coherent method to quantify this uncertainty so that it can be used in a predictive manner at the component length scale. The research presented in this report begins to address this lack of capability through a systematic study of the effects of microstructure on the strain concentration at a hole. To achieve the strain concentration, small circular holes (approximately 100 {micro}m in diameter) were machined into brass tensile specimens using a femto-second laser. The brass was annealed at 450 C, 600 C, and 800 C to produce three hole-to-grain size ratios of approximately 7, 1, and 1/7. Electron backscatter diffraction experiments were used to guide the construction of digital microstructures for finite element simulations of uniaxial tension. Digital image correlation experiments were used to qualitatively validate the numerical simulations. The simulations were performed iteratively to generate statistics describing the distribution of plastic strain at the hole in varying microstructural environments. In both the experiments and simulations, the deformation behavior was found to depend strongly on the character of the nearby microstructure.

  17. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.1 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives

  18. Phenylpropanoid related regulatory protein-regulatory region associations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Apuya, Nestor (Culver City, CA); Bobzin, Steven Craig (Malibu, CA); Park, Joon-Hyun (Oak Park, CA); Doukhanina, Elena (Newbury Park, CA)

    2012-01-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Materials and methods for identifying lignin regulatory region-regulatory protein associations are disclosed. Materials and methods for modulating lignin accumulation are also disclosed.

  19. Environmental Modeling: Coping with Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat

    ­ Statistical heterogeneity ­ Complex correlation structures · Classical models: ­ Additive noise ­ UniEnvironmental Modeling: Coping with Uncertainty Daniel M. Tartakovsky (dmt@lanl.gov) Theoretical of environmental processes 2. Parametric uncertainty 3. Current approaches to uncertainty quantification 4. Random

  20. Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating expenses (opex) for the project, 3. The number of wells and associated capex to recover the reserves, 4

  1. Trajectories without quantum uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eugene S. Polzik; Klemens Hammerer

    2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A common knowledge suggests that trajectories of particles in quantum mechanics always have quantum uncertainties. These quantum uncertainties set by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle limit precision of measurements of fields and forces, and ultimately give rise to the standard quantum limit in metrology. With the rapid developments of sensitivity of measurements these limits have been approached in various types of measurements including measurements of fields and acceleration. Here we show that a quantum trajectory of one system measured relatively to the other "reference system" with an effective negative mass can be quantum uncertainty--free. The method crucially relies on the generation of an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entangled state of two objects, one of which has an effective negative mass. From a practical perspective these ideas open the way towards force and acceleration measurements at new levels of sensitivity far below the standard quantum limit.

  2. REGULATORY STATUS: AOC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    184 UNIT NAME: Concrete Rubble pile 129) REGULATORY STATUS: AOC LOCATION: Outside plant security south of C-611 Water Treatment Plant. Estimated to be less than 5 cubic feet....

  3. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the first in a series of inference uncertainty estimations. While the methods demonstrated are primarily statistical, these do not preclude the use of nonprobabilistic methods for uncertainty characterization. The methods presented permit accurate determinations for validation and eventual prediction. It is a goal that these methods establish a standard against which best practice may evolve for determining degree of validation.

  4. Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

    2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

  5. Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Owhadi, Houman; Sullivan, Timothy John; McKerns, Mike; Ortiz, Michael

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \\emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \\emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contr...

  6. Uncertainty and calibration analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

  7. Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lodwick, Weldon

    11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

  8. Uncertainty Principle Respects Locality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dongsheng Wang

    2015-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The notion of nonlocality implicitly implies there might be some kind of spooky action at a distance in nature, however, the validity of quantum mechanics has been well tested up to now. In this work it is argued that the notion of nonlocality is physically improper, the basic principle of locality in nature is well respected by quantum mechanics, namely, the uncertainty principle. We show that the quantum bound on the Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt (CHSH) inequality can be recovered from the uncertainty relation in a multipartite setting. We further argue that the super-quantum correlation demonstrated by the nonlocal box is not physically comparable with the quantum one. The origin of the quantum structure of nature still remains to be explained, some post-quantum theory which is more complete in some sense than quantum mechanics is possible and might not necessarily be a hidden variable theory.

  9. Sandia National Laboratories: Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Experimental Testing Phenomenological Modeling Risk and Safety Assessment Cyber-Based Vulnerability Assessments Uncertainty Analysis Transportation Safety Fire Science Human...

  10. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  11. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    First, it recovers historical oil price uncertainty seriesmore reliable historical oil price uncertainty series as itAs a result, the historical oil price uncertainty series is

  12. Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

  13. Robust Nonlinear State Feedback for Power Systems under Structured Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pota, Himanshu Roy

    , and highly nonlinear systems with constantly varying loads. Control of modern electric power systems becomes perturbations to the state model of power systems. The control law is applied through the excitation system, stability, uncertainty,. 1. INTRODUCTION For a control scheme to be effective, some details of the system

  14. Interstate Technology & Regulatory Council (ITRC) Remediation...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Technology & Regulatory Council (ITRC) Remediation Management of Complex Sites: Case Studies and Guidance Interstate Technology & Regulatory Council (ITRC) Remediation...

  15. Varying constants, Gravitation and Cosmology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jean-Philippe Uzan

    2010-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Fundamental constants are a cornerstone of our physical laws. Any constant varying in space and/or time would reflect the existence of an almost massless field that couples to matter. This will induce a violation of the universality of free fall. It is thus of utmost importance for our understanding of gravity and of the domain of validity of general relativity to test for their constancy. We thus detail the relations between the constants, the tests of the local position invariance and of the universality of free fall. We then review the main experimental and observational constraints that have been obtained from atomic clocks, the Oklo phenomenon, Solar system observations, meteorites dating, quasar absorption spectra, stellar physics, pulsar timing, the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis. At each step we describe the basics of each system, its dependence with respect to the constants, the known systematic effects and the most recent constraints that have been obtained. We then describe the main theoretical frameworks in which the low-energy constants may actually be varying and we focus on the unification mechanisms and the relations between the variation of different constants. To finish, we discuss the more speculative possibility of understanding their numerical values and the apparent fine-tuning that they confront us with.

  16. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  17. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  19. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del Sol Home DistributionTransportation Safety Home Stationary PowerUncertainty

  20. Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jun Feng; Yao-Zhong Zhang; Mark D. Gould; Heng Fan

    2015-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

    We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit $-\\log_2c$. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.

  1. Approaches to uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bohn, M.P.; Wheeler, T.A.; Parry, G.W.

    1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An integral part of any probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is the performance of an uncertainty analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the point estimates of the risk measures considered. While a variety of classical methods of uncertainty analysis exist, application of these methods and developing new techniques consistent with existing PRA data bases and the need for expert (subjective) input has been an area of considerable interest since the pioneering Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) in 1975. This report presents the results of a critical review of existing methods for performing uncertainty analyses for PRAs, with special emphasis on identifying data base limitations on the various methods. Both classical and Baysian approaches have been examined. This work was funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of its ongoing full-scope PRA of the LaSalle nuclear power station. Thus in addition to the review, this report contains recommendations for a suitable uncertainty analysis methodology for the LaSalle PRA.

  2. Determination of the uncertainty in assembly average burnup

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cacciapouti, R.J.; Lam, G.M.; Theriault, P.A.; Delmolino, P.M.

    1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Pressurized water reactors maintain records of the assembly average burnup for each fuel assembly at the plant. The reactor records are currently used by commercial reactor operators and vendors for (a) special nuclear accountability, (b) placement of spent fuel in storage pools, and (c) dry storage cask design and analysis. A burnup credit methodology has been submitted to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by the US Department of Energy. In order to support this application, utilities are requested to provide burnup uncertainty as part of their reactor records. The collected burnup data are used for the development of a plant correction to the cask vendor supplied burnup credit loading curve. The objective of this work is to identify a feasible methodology for determining the 95/95 uncertainty in the assembly average burnup. Reactor records are based on the core neutronic analysis coupled with measured in-core detector data. The uncertainty of particular burnup records depends mainly on the uncertainty associated with the methods used to develop the records. The methodology adopted for this analysis utilizes current neutronic codes for the determination of the uncertainty in assembly average burnup.

  3. Robust Adaptive Kalman Filters for Linear TimeVarying Systems with Stochastic Parametric Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balakrishnan, Venkataramanan "Ragu"

    measurements fy(i); i = 0; 1; : : : ; kg; the corresponding state estimate is denoted â?? x(kjk). Such estimation of the square of the estimation error, i.e., E \\Theta (x(k) \\Gamma â?? x(kjk)) T (x(k) \\Gamma â?? x(kjk)) \\Lambda 1) \\Gamma y(k \\Gamma 1)); â?? x(kjk \\Gamma 1) = x f (k): (2a) 2. Filtered estimation update: â?? x(kjk

  4. Robust Kalman Filters for Linear Time-Varying Systems with Stochastic Parametric Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balakrishnan, Venkataramanan "Ragu"

    ; the corresponding state estimate is denoted ^ x(kjk). Such estimation problems arise in several applications h (x(k) ^ x(kjk)) T (x(k) ^ x(kjk)) i , at each k. When the random processes u i and um are Gaussian

  5. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

  6. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

  7. Characterization of subjective uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HELTON,JON CRAIG; MARTELL,MARY-ALENA; TIERNEY,MARTIN S.

    2000-05-18T23:59:59.000Z

    The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of subjective uncertainty is discussed, including assignment of distributions, uncertain variables selected for inclusion in analysis, correlation control, sample size, statistical confidence on mean complementary cumulative distribution functions, generation of Latin hypercube samples, sensitivity analysis techniques, and scenarios involving stochastic and subjective uncertainty.

  8. Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    on uncertainty in input values for predictions. The input values associated with predictions can come from estimations or measurements corrupted with noise. Therefore, it is more reasonable to assign probability distributions over their domains of plausible... increases, the number of simulations required increases significantly. The time cost limits the extension of uncertainty analysis. Current studies have not covered uncertainty related to system controls in operations. Measurements in system operations...

  9. Local Varying-Alpha Theories

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    John D. Barrow; Joao Magueijo

    2015-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

    In a recent paper we demonstrated how the simplest model for varying alpha may be interpreted as the effect of a dielectric material, generalized to be consistent with Lorentz invariance. Unlike normal dielectrics, such a medium cannot change the speed of light, and its dynamics obey a Klein-Gordon equation. This work immediately suggests an extension of the standard theory, even if we require compliance with Lorentz invariance. Instead of a wave equation, the dynamics may satisfy a local algebraic relation involving the permittivity and the properties of the electromagnetic field, in analogy with more conventional dielectric (but still preserving Lorentz invariance). We develop the formalism for such theories and investigate some phenomenological implications. The problem of the divergence of the classical self-energy can be solved, or at least softened, in this framework. Some interesting new cosmological solutions for the very early universe are found, including the possibility of a bounce, inflation and expansion with a loitering phase, all of which are induced by early variations in alpha.

  10. Utility Maximization under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Jian

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Motivated by several search and optimization problems over uncertain datasets, we study the stochastic versions of a broad class of combinatorial problems where either the existences or the weights of the elements in the input dataset are uncertain. The class of problems that we study includes shortest paths, minimum weight spanning trees, and minimum weight matchings over probabilistic graphs; top-k queries over probabilistic datasets; and other combinatorial problems like knapsack. By noticing that the expected value is inadequate in capturing different types of risk-averse or risk-prone behaviors, we consider a more general objective which is to maximize the expected utility of the solution for some given utility function. For weight uncertainty model, we show that we can obtain a polynomial time approximation algorithm with additive error eps for any eps>0, if there is a pseudopolynomial time algorithm for the exact version of the problem. Our result generalizes several prior works on stochastic shortest ...

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS Amendment and Need The purpose of the non-AFA crab sideboard limits was to prevent vessels with crab QS from paper of all GOA sideboards for non-American Fisheries Act (AFA) crab vessels. In April 2007

  12. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  13. Regulatory Streamlining and Improvement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mark A. Carl

    2006-07-11T23:59:59.000Z

    The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) engaged in numerous projects outlined under the scope of work discussed in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) grant number DE-FC26-04NT15456 awarded to the IOGCC. Numerous projects were completed that were extremely valuable to state oil and gas agencies as a result of work performed utilizing resources provided by the grant. There are numerous areas in which state agencies still need assistance. This additional assistance will need to be addressed under future scopes of work submitted annually to DOE's Project Officer for this grant. This report discusses the progress of the projects outlined under the grant scope of work for the 2005-2006 areas of interest, which are as follows: Area of Interest No. 1--Regulatory Streamlining and Improvement: This area of interest continues to support IOGCC's regulatory streamlining efforts that include the identification and elimination of unnecessary duplications of efforts between and among state and federal programs dealing with exploration and production on public lands. Area of Interest No. 2--Technology: This area of interest seeks to improve efficiency in states through the identification of technologies that can reduce costs. Area of Interest No. 3--Training and Education: This area of interest is vital to upgrading the skills of regulators and industry alike. Within the National Energy Policy, there are many appropriate training and education opportunities. Education was strongly endorsed by the President's National Energy Policy Development group. Acting through the governors offices, states are very effective conduits for the dissemination of energy education information. While the IOGCC favors the development of a comprehensive, long-term energy education plan, states are also supportive of immediate action on important concerns, such as energy prices, availability and conservation. Area of Interest No. 4--Resource Assessment and Development: This area of interest relates directly to helping maximize production of domestic oil and natural gas resources, including areas that are under explored or have not been adequately defined.

  14. Cumulative theoretical uncertainties in lithium depletion boundary age

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tognelli, Emanuele; Degl'Innocenti, Scilla

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We performed a detailed analysis of the main theoretical uncertainties affecting the age at the lithium depletion boundary (LDB). To do that we computed almost 12000 pre-main sequence models with mass in the range [0.06, 0.4] M_sun by varying input physics (nuclear reaction cross-sections, plasma electron screening, outer boundary conditions, equation of state, and radiative opacity), initial chemical elements abundances (total metallicity, helium and deuterium abundances, and heavy elements mixture), and convection efficiency (mixing length parameter, alpha_ML). As a first step, we studied the effect of varying these quantities individually within their extreme values. Then, we analysed the impact of simultaneously perturbing the main input/parameters without an a priori assumption of independence. Such an approach allowed us to build for the first time the cumulative error stripe, which defines the edges of the maximum uncertainty region in the theoretical LDB age. We found that the cumulative error stripe ...

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  16. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    uncertainty on investment: Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling.investment decisions to changes in uncertainty using Texas oiloil price uncertainty deters var- ious types of real economic activities, such as output production, investment,

  17. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  18. Structural model uncertainty in stochastic simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKay, M.D.; Morrison, J.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology and Safety Assessment Div.

    1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction uncertainty in stochastic simulation models can be described by a hierarchy of components: stochastic variability at the lowest level, input and parameter uncertainty at a higher level, and structural model uncertainty at the top. It is argued that a usual paradigm for analysis of input uncertainty is not suitable for application to structural model uncertainty. An approach more likely to produce an acceptable methodology for analyzing structural model uncertainty is one that uses characteristics specific to the particular family of models.

  19. Measurement uncertainty from In-Situ gamma spectroscopy of nonhomogeneous containers and from Laboratory Assay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bronson, F. [CHP, Canberra Industries, Meriden CT (United States); Atrashkevich, V. [Stroiteley, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During a D and D or ER process containers of radioactive waste are normally generated. The activity can commonly be determined by gamma spectroscopy, but frequently the measurement conditions are not conducive to precise sample-detector geometries, and usually the radioactive material is not in a homogeneous distribution. What is the best method to accurately assay these containers - sampling followed by laboratory analysis, or in-situ spectroscopy? What is the uncertainty of the final result? To help answer these questions, the Canberra tool ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator [IUE] was used to mathematically simulate and evaluate several different measurement scenarios and to estimate the uncertainty of the measurement and the sampling process. Several representative containers and source distributions were mathematically defined and evaluated to determine the in-situ measurement uncertainty due to the sample non-uniformity. In the First example a typical field situation requiring the measurement of 200-liter drums was evaluated. A sensitivity analysis was done to show which parameters contributed the most to the uncertainty. Then an efficiency uncertainty calculation was performed. In the Second example, a group of 200-liter drums with various types of non-homogeneous distributions was created, and them measurements were simulated with different detector arrangements to see how the uncertainty varied. In the Third example, a truck filled with non-uniform soil was first measured with multiple in-situ detectors to determine the measurement uncertainty. Then composite samples were extracted and the sampling uncertainty computed for comparison to the field measurement uncertainty. (authors)

  20. Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Caballero, Ricardo J.

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods ...

  1. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Consider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. “Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,”Harvesting a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty 1 (with

  2. Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...

  3. A QUALITATIVE APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR THE PWR ROD EJECTION ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DIAMOND,D.J.; ARONSON,A.; YANG,C.

    2000-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to understand best-estimate calculations of the peak local fuel enthalpy during a rod ejection accident, an assessment of the uncertainty has been completed. The analysis took into account point kinetics parameters which would be available from a three-dimensional core model and engineering judgment as to the uncertainty in those parameters. Sensitivity studies to those parameters were carried out using the best-estimate code PARCS. The results showed that the uncertainty (corresponding to one standard deviation) in local fuel enthalpy would be determined primarily by the uncertainty in ejected rod worth and delayed neutron fraction. For an uncertainty in the former of 8% and the latter of 5%, the uncertainty in fuel enthalpy varied from 51% to 69% for control rod worth varying from $1.2 to $1.0. Also considered in the uncertainty were the errors introduced by uncertainties in the Doppler reactivity coefficient, the fuel pellet specific heat, and assembly and fuel pin peaking factors.

  4. Analysis of transcriptional regulatory circuitry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rinaldi, Nicola J., 1974-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The research in this thesis has focused on the analysis of data from two types of microarray technologies with the goal of improving understanding of transcriptional regulatory circuitry in yeast. These microarray technologies, ...

  5. Regulatory Requirements for Cogeneration Projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Curry, K. A., Jr.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    for cogeneration, therefore, the discussion will be limited to those portions of each act that affect cogenerators. Since the original cogeneration legislation was passed in 1978 and implemented by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in 1980... major pieces of legislation that impact cogeneration as well as an outline of the major provisions obtain ed in the Department of Energy Federal Energy Regulatory Commission final rule implementing Section 201 and Section 210 of PURPA. Public Uti...

  6. Regulatory facility guide for Ohio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, S.S.; Bock, R.E.; Francis, M.W.; Gove, R.M.; Johnson, P.E.; Kovac, F.M.; Mynatt, J.O. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Rymer, A.C. [Transportation Consulting Services, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The Regulatory Facility Guide (RFG) has been developed for the DOE and contractor facilities located in the state of Ohio. It provides detailed compilations of international, federal, and state transportation-related regulations applicable to shipments originating at destined to Ohio facilities. This RFG was developed as an additional resource tool for use both by traffic managers who must ensure that transportation operations are in full compliance with all applicable regulatory requirements and by oversight personnel who must verify compliance activities.

  7. Regulatory Requirements | The Ames Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberg and SondershausenRegulatory DriversRegulatory

  8. Varying-Coefficient Functional Linear Regression Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cardot, Hervé

    Varying-Coefficient Functional Linear Regression Models Herv´e Cardot1 and Pascal Sarda2 1, the ability of such non linear functional approaches to produce competitive estimations. Short title : Varying monograph. We propose here another generalization of the functional linear regression model in which

  9. Fractal analysis of time varying data

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vo-Dinh, Tuan (Knoxville, TN); Sadana, Ajit (Oxford, MS)

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Characteristics of time varying data, such as an electrical signal, are analyzed by converting the data from a temporal domain into a spatial domain pattern. Fractal analysis is performed on the spatial domain pattern, thereby producing a fractal dimension D.sub.F. The fractal dimension indicates the regularity of the time varying data.

  10. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  11. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    historical uncertainty series by incorporating a realized volatility series from daily oil price data

  12. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

  13. ESTIMATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN REACTIVITY ACCIDENT NEUTRONIC CALCULATIONS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DIAMOND,D.J.; YANG,C.Y.; ARONSON,A.L.

    1998-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

    A study of the uncertainty in calculations of the rod ejection accident in a pressurized water reactor is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This paper is a progress report on that study. Results are presented for the sensitivity of core energy deposition to the key parameters: ejected rod worth, delayed neutron fraction, Doppler reactivity coefficient, and fuel specific heat. These results can be used in the future to estimate the uncertainty in local fuel enthalpy given some assumptions about the uncertainty in the key parameters. This study is also concerned with the effect of the intra-assembly representation in calculations. The issue is the error that might be present if assembly-average power is calculated, and pin peaking factors from a static calculation are then used to determine local fuel enthalpy. This is being studied with the help of a collaborative effort with Russian and French analysts who are using codes with different intra-assembly representations. The US code being used is PARCS which calculates power on an assembly-average basis. The Russian code being used is BARS which calculates power for individual fuel pins using a heterogeneous representation based on a Green's Function method.

  14. Estimating the uncertainty in reactivity accident neutronic calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diamond, D.J.; Yang, C.Y.; Aronson, A.L.

    1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    A study of the uncertainty in calculations of the rod ejection accident in a pressurized water reactor is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This paper is a progress report on that study. Results are presented for the sensitivity of core energy deposition to the key parameters: ejected rod worth, delayed neutron fraction, Doppler reactivity coefficient, and fuel specific heat. These results can be used in the future to estimate the uncertainty in local fuel enthalpy given some assumptions about the uncertainty in the key parameters. This study is also concerned with the effect of the intra-assembly representation in calculations. The issue is the error that might be present if assembly-average power is calculated, and pin peaking factors from a static calculation are then used to determine local fuel enthalpy. This is being studied with the help of a collaborative effort with Russian and French analysts who are using codes with different intra-assembly representations. The US code being used is PARCS which calculates power on an assembly-average basis. The Russian code being used is BARS which calculates power for individual fuel pins using a heterogeneous representation based on a Green`s Function method.

  15. Solar mass-varying neutrino oscillations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marfatia, Danny; Huber, P.; Barger, V.

    2005-11-18T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the solar neutrino deficit may be due to oscillations of mass-varying neutrinos (MaVaNs). This scenario elucidates solar neutrino data beautifully while remaining comfortably compatible with atmospheric ...

  16. 4, 507532, 2004 Emission uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    and Physics Discussions Impact of different emission inventories on simulated tropospheric ozone over China The importance of emission inventory uncertainty on the simulation of summertime tro- pospheric Ozone over China has been analyzed using a regional chemical transport model. Three independent emissions inventories

  17. Impact of orifice metering uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stuart, J.W. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (USA))

    1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a recent utility study, attributed 38% of its unaccounted-for UAF gas to orifice metering uncertainty biasing caused by straightening vanes. How this was determined and how this applied to the company's orifice meters is described. Almost all (97%) of the company's UAF gas was found to be attributed to identifiable accounting procedures, measurement problems, theft and leakage.

  18. Uncertainty quantification and error analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.

  19. 5, 45074543, 2005 Uncertainty analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    parameterization, the representation of the in-cloud updraft velocity, the relationship between effective radius10 of the study of aerosol effects on the global climate, uncertainty in the estimation of the indirect aerosol the aerosol chemical and physical properties and cloud microphysics. Aerosols influence cloud radiative

  20. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

    2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  1. Threat Insight Quarterly Regulatory Compliance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    X-Force ® Threat Insight Quarterly Regulatory Compliance www.iss.netwww.iss.net October 2006 #12 Risk Index ..............................................11 Future X-Force Threat Insight Quarterly Internet Security Systems X-Force® Threat Insight Quarterly > October 2006 ©2006 Internet Security Systems

  2. UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION OFFICE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL SAFETY AND SAFEGUARDS ON RADIATION THERAPY OVEREXPOSURES IN PANAMA Addressees All medical licensees. Purpose The U.S. Nuclear persons in your institution who are involved with radiation therapy should review this notice

  3. State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal Heat Pump Installations: 2012 Kevin McCray Executive of this project was to update previous research accomplished by the Geothermal Heat Pump Consortium (GHPC of ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems. The work was to provide insight into existing and anticipated

  4. State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal Heat Pump

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal Heat Pump Installa:ons: 2012 & 2009 Kevin McCray, Execu:ve Director #12;2009 #12;Sponsors ·The Geothermal Hea requested geothermal hea:ng and cooling regulatory data. · An email containing

  5. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, George E. (West Chicago, IL); Dawson, John W. (Clarendon Hills, IL)

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t.sub.max -t.sub.min) of a series of paired time signals t.sub.1 and t.sub.2 varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t.sub.1 .ltoreq.t.sub.2 and t.sub.1 +t.sub.2 equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t.sub.min) of the first signal t.sub.1 closer to t.sub.max and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20-800.

  6. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1983-10-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t[sub max]--t[sub min]) of a series of paired time signals t[sub 1] and t[sub 2] varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t[sub 1][<=]t[sub 2] and t[sub 1]+t[sub 2] equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t[sub min]) of the first signal t[sub 1] closer to t[sub max] and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20--800. 6 figs.

  7. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1981-02-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.

  8. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

  9. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

  10. A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond Virginia 23298 (United States)

    2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties.

  11. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

  12. Solar mass-varying neutrino oscillations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    V. Barger; Patrick Huber; Danny Marfatia

    2005-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the solar neutrino deficit may be due to oscillations of mass-varying neutrinos (MaVaNs). This scenario elucidates solar neutrino data beautifully while remaining comfortably compatible with atmospheric neutrino and K2K data and with reactor antineutrino data at short and long baselines (from CHOOZ and KamLAND). We find that the survival probability of solar MaVaNs is independent of how the suppression of neutrino mass caused by the acceleron-matter couplings varies with density. Measurements of MeV and lower energy solar neutrinos will provide a rigorous test of the idea.

  13. Quantum mechanical time contradicts the uncertainty principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hitoshi Kitada

    1999-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

    The a priori time in conventional quantum mechanics is shown to contradict the uncertainty principle. A possible solution is given.

  14. Theoretical Uncertainties in Inflationary Predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    William H. Kinney; Antonio Riotto

    2006-03-09T23:59:59.000Z

    With present and future observations becoming of higher and higher quality, it is timely and necessary to investigate the most significant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation. We show that our ignorance of the entire history of the Universe, including the physics of reheating after inflation, translates to considerable errors in observationally relevant parameters. Using the inflationary flow formalism, we estimate that for a spectral index $n$ and tensor/scalar ratio $r$ in the region favored by current observational constraints, the theoretical errors are of order $\\Delta n / | n - 1| \\sim 0.1 - 1$ and $\\Delta r /r \\sim 0.1 - 1$. These errors represent the dominant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation, and are generically of the order of or larger than the projected uncertainties in future precision measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background. We also show that the lowest-order classification of models into small field, large field, and hybrid breaks down when higher order corrections to the dynamics are included. Models can flow from one region to another.

  15. Uncertainties in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Advanced

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kara G. Cafferty; Erin M. Searcy; Long Nguyen; Sabrina Spatari

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To meet Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) cellulosic biofuel mandates, the United States will require an annual domestic supply of about 242 million Mg of biomass by 2022. To improve the feedstock logistics of lignocellulosic biofuels and access available biomass resources from areas with varying yields, commodity systems have been proposed and designed to deliver on-spec biomass feedstocks at preprocessing “depots”, which densify and stabilize the biomass prior to long-distance transport and delivery to centralized biorefineries. The harvesting, preprocessing, and logistics (HPL) of biomass commodity supply chains thus could introduce spatially variable environmental impacts into the biofuel life cycle due to needing to harvest, move, and preprocess biomass from multiple distances that have variable spatial density. This study examines the uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of corn stover logisticsHPL within a bio-ethanol supply chain in the state of Kansas, where sustainable biomass supply varies spatially. Two scenarios were evaluated each having a different number of depots of varying capacity and location within Kansas relative to a central commodity-receiving biorefinery to test GHG emissions uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the spatial uncertainty in the HPL gate-to-gate sequence. The results show that the transport of densified biomass introduces the highest variability and contribution to the carbon footprint of the logistics HPL supply chain (0.2-13 g CO2e/MJ). Moreover, depending upon the biomass availability and its spatial density and surrounding transportation infrastructure (road and rail), logistics HPL processes can increase the variability in life cycle environmental impacts for lignocellulosic biofuels. Within Kansas, life cycle GHG emissions could range from 24 to 41 g CO2e/MJ depending upon the location, size and number of preprocessing depots constructed. However, this range can be minimized through optimizing the siting of preprocessing depots where ample rail infrastructure exists to supply biomass commodity to a regional biorefinery supply system

  16. Adaptively Addressing Uncertainty in Estuarine and Near Coastal Restoration Projects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thom, Ronald M.; Williams, Greg D.; Borde, Amy B.; Southard, John A.; Sargeant, Susan L.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Laufle, Jeffrey C.; Glasoe, Stuart

    2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Restoration projects have an uncertain outcome because of a lack of information about current site conditions, historical disturbance levels, effects of landscape alterations on site development, unpredictable trajectories or patterns of ecosystem structural development, and many other factors. A poor understanding of the factors that control the development and dynamics of a system, such as hydrology, salinity, wave energies, can also lead to an unintended outcome. Finally, lack of experience in restoring certain types of systems (e.g., rare or very fragile habitats) or systems in highly modified situations (e.g., highly urbanized estuaries) makes project outcomes uncertain. Because of these uncertainties, project costs can rise dramatically in an attempt to come closer to project goals. All of the potential sources of error can be addressed to a certain degree through adaptive management. The first step is admitting that these uncertainties can exist, and addressing as many of the uncertainties with planning and directed research prior to implementing the project. The second step is to evaluate uncertainties through hypothesis-driven experiments during project implementation. The third step is to use the monitoring program to evaluate and adjust the project as needed to improve the probability of the project to reach is goal. The fourth and final step is to use the information gained in the project to improve future projects. A framework that includes a clear goal statement, a conceptual model, and an evaluation framework can help in this adaptive restoration process. Projects and programs vary in their application of adaptive management in restoration, and it is very difficult to be highly prescriptive in applying adaptive management to projects that necessarily vary widely in scope, goal, ecosystem characteristics, and uncertainties. Very large ecosystem restoration programs in the Mississippi River delta (Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act; CWPPRA) have incorporated very specific and detailed elements in a more active adaptive management effort. In Puget Sound, the Puget Sound Action Team uses site-specific case studies, monitoring, and public involvement to direct actions to reduce microbial contamination of harvestable shellfish. Small-scale projects can also be improved through application of adaptive management. For example, directed research and site assessments resulted in successful restoration of seagrasses near a ferry terminal in Puget Sound. It is recommended that all restoration programs be conducted in an adaptive management framework, and where appropriate, a more active adaptive management approach be applied. The net effect should be less uncertainty, improved project success, advancement of the science of restoration, and cost savings.

  17. Identification and Characterization of Prokaryotic Regulatory Networks: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary D Stormo

    2012-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

    We have completed our characterization of both the transcriptional regulatory network and post-transcriptional regulatory motifs in Shewanella.

  18. Fact Sheet: DOE/National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissione...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Natural Gas Infrastructure Modernization Partnership Fact Sheet: DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility...

  19. Predicting software defects in varying development lifecycles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bae, Doo-Hwan

    Predicting software defects in varying development lifecycles using Bayesian nets Information and Software Technology (2007) Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, William March, Peter HyeonJeong Kim KAIST SE LAB #12;Contents Introduction Overall approach Analyzing the lifecycle Modeling the defect prediction

  20. System Identification: Time Varying and Nonlinear Methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Majji, Manoranjan

    2010-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

    . In the process, we generalize the classical time invariant input output AutoRegressive model with an eXogenous input (ARX) models to the time varying case and realize an asymptotically stable observer as a byproduct of the calculations. It is further found...

  1. While future changes in emission are the largest uncertainty on future climate change, another

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allan, Richard P.

    specify concentrations and that lead to varying degrees of heating (or cooling) in the future and work outWhile future changes in emission are the largest uncertainty on future climate change, another. Above, the thick lines show different possible future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways

  2. Techniques of analyzing the impacts of certain electric-utility ratemaking and regulatory-policy concepts. Bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This bibliography provides documentation for use by state public utility commissions and major nonregulated utilities in evaluating the applicability of a wide range of electric utility rate design and regulatory concepts in light of certain regulatory objectives. Part I, Utility Regulatory Objectives, contains 2084 citations on conservation of energy and capital; efficient use of facilities and resources; and equitable rates to electricity consumers. Part II, Rate Design Concepts, contains 1238 citations on time-of-day rates; seasonally-varying rates; cost-of-service rates; interruptible rates (including the accompanying use of load management techniques); declining block rates; and lifeline rates. Part III, Regulatory Concepts, contains 1282 references on restrictions on master metering; procedures for review of automatic adjustment clauses; prohibitions of rate or regulatory discrimination against solar, wind, or other small energy systems; treatment of advertising expenses; and procedures to protect ratepayers from abrupt termination of service.

  3. Entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shang Liu; Liang-Zhu Mu; Heng Fan

    2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurement settings in quantum mechanics. Those uncertainty relations are obtained for both cases with and without the presence of quantum memory. They take concise forms which can be proven in a unified method and easy to calculate. Our results recover the well known entropic uncertainty relations for two observables, which show the uncertainties about the outcomes of two incompatible measurements. Those uncertainty relations are applicable in both foundations of quantum theory and the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols.

  4. Investment under Regulatory Uncertainty: U.S. Electricity Generation Investment Since 1996

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ishii, Jun; Yan, Jingming

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    information about California power plant projects available× 24 hours) In California, the CEC grants power plant siteCalifornia had made its intent to restructure known since the release of its “Blue Book” in 1994, power plant

  5. Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, L; Hobbs, Benjamin F; Norman, C S

    the social cost of carbon abatement by as much as 50%? in this setting with risk neutral investors1. Delay can lead to investment in dirty technology in hopes that future policies will favor existing coal plants, or to support of lobbying efforts designed...

  6. An Adaptive Particle Filtering Approach to Tracking Modes in a Varying Shallow Ocean Environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Candy, J V

    2011-03-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The shallow ocean environment is ever changing mostly due to temperature variations in its upper layers (< 100m) directly affecting sound propagation throughout. The need to develop processors that are capable of tracking these changes implies a stochastic as well as an 'adaptive' design. The stochastic requirement follows directly from the multitude of variations created by uncertain parameters and noise. Some work has been accomplished in this area, but the stochastic nature was constrained to Gaussian uncertainties. It has been clear for a long time that this constraint was not particularly realistic leading a Bayesian approach that enables the representation of any uncertainty distribution. Sequential Bayesian techniques enable a class of processors capable of performing in an uncertain, nonstationary (varying statistics), non-Gaussian, variable shallow ocean. In this paper adaptive processors providing enhanced signals for acoustic hydrophonemeasurements on a vertical array as well as enhanced modal function estimates are developed. Synthetic data is provided to demonstrate that this approach is viable.

  7. Spatially varying embedded stochastic galerkin methods for steady-state PDEs.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cyr, Eric Christopher

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Existing discretizations for stochastic PDEs, based on a tensor product between the deterministic basis and the stochastic basis, treat the required resolution of uncertainty as uniform across the physical domain. However, solutions to many PDEs of interest exhibit spatially localized features that may result in uncertainty being severely over or under-resolved by existing discretizations. In this report, we explore the mechanics and accuracy of using a spatially varying stochastic expansion. This is achieved through an adaptive refinement algorithm where simple error estimates are used to independently drive refinement of the stochastic basis at each point in the physical domain. Results are presented comparing the accuracy of the adaptive techinque to the accuracy achieved using uniform refinement.

  8. Regulatory Processes | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742 33 1112011 Strategic2 OPAM615_CostNSAR -Department of Energyas ofCheniereDepartment ofRegulatory

  9. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  10. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, August 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M., Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Environmental Regulatory Update Table (August 1991) provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  11. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, September 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  12. Environmental regulatory update table, March 1989

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.; Langston, M.E.; Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S.

    1989-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  13. Environmental regulatory update table, July 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Environmental Regulatory Update Table (July 1991) provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  14. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, December 1989

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlbert, L.M.; Langston, M.E. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA)); Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

    1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  15. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, April 1989

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.; Langston, M.E.; Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S.

    1989-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  16. Seamless Transport Policy: Institutional and Regulatory Aspects...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Seamless Transport Policy: Institutional and Regulatory Aspects of Inter-Modal Coordination Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Seamless Transport Policy:...

  17. Other Regulatory Efforts | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Efforts Other Regulatory Efforts In addition to regulating international electricity trade, the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability participates in other...

  18. Mineral Test Hole Regulatory Act (Tennessee)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Mineral Hole Regulatory Act is applicable to any person (individual, corporation, company, association, joint venture, partnership, receiver, trustee, guardian, executor, administrator,...

  19. Federal / State Legislative & Regulatory Changes Required for...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Issues Federal and State Blending Restrictions Action by ASTM NCWM to address higher ethanol blends Federal State Legislative & Regulatory Changes Required for Introduction of...

  20. EAC Recommendations Regarding Emerging and Alternative Regulatory...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Tools to Assist in Analysis (September 2014) EAC Recommendations Regarding Emerging and Alternative Regulatory Models and Modeling Tools to Assist in Analysis (September 2014)...

  1. REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL - WORK PLANNING FORMAT: Natural...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    FORMAT: Natural Gas Use in Transportation REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL - WORK PLANNING FORMAT: Natural Gas Use in Transportation RCC Workplan NGV.PDF More Documents &...

  2. Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: This report describes research towards the development of...

  3. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

  4. High-level waste qualification: Managing uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pulsipher, B.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Qualification of high-level waste implies specifications driven by risk against which performance can be assessed. The inherent uncertainties should be addressed in the specifications and statistical methods should be employed to appropriately manage these uncertainties. Uncertainties exist whenever measurements are obtained, sampling is employed, or processes are affected by systematic or random perturbations. This paper presents the approach and statistical methods currently employed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and West Valley Nuclear Services (WVNS) to characterize, minimize, and control uncertainties pertinent to a waste-form acceptance specification concerned with product consistency.

  5. Modeling Uncertainties in Aggregated Thermostatically Controlled Loads Using a State Queueing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ning Lu; David P. Chassin; Steve E. Widergren

    2004-09-19T23:59:59.000Z

    To study the impacts of price responsive demand on the electric power system requires better load models. This paper discusses the modeling of uncertainties in aggregated thermostatically controlled loads using a state queueing (SQ) model. The cycling times of thermostatically controlled appliances (TCAs) vary with the TCA types and sizes, as well as the ambient temperatures. The random consumption of consumers, which shortens or prolongs a specific TCA cycling period, introduces another degree of uncertainty. By modifying the state transition matrix, these random factors can be taken into account in a discrete SQ model. The impacts of considering load diversity in the SQ model while simulating TCA setpoint response are also studied.

  6. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  7. Time varying, multivariate volume data reduction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fout, Nathaniel [UC DAVIS; Ma, Kwan - Liu [UC DAVIS

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Large-scale supercomputing is revolutionizing the way science is conducted. A growing challenge, however, is understanding the massive quantities of data produced by large-scale simulations. The data, typically time-varying, multivariate, and volumetric, can occupy from hundreds of gigabytes to several terabytes of storage space. Transferring and processing volume data of such sizes is prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Although it may not be possible to entirely alleviate these problems, data compression should be considered as part of a viable solution, especially when the primary means of data analysis is volume rendering. In this paper we present our study of multivariate compression, which exploits correlations among related variables, for volume rendering. Two configurations for multidimensional compression based on vector quantization are examined. We emphasize quality reconstruction and interactive rendering, which leads us to a solution using graphics hardware to perform on-the-fly decompression during rendering. In this paper we present a solution which addresses the need for data reduction in large supercomputing environments where data resulting from simulations occupies tremendous amounts of storage. Our solution employs a lossy encoding scheme to acrueve data reduction with several options in terms of rate-distortion behavior. We focus on encoding of multiple variables together, with optional compression in space and time. The compressed volumes can be rendered directly with commodity graphics cards at interactive frame rates and rendering quality similar to that of static volume renderers. Compression results using a multivariate time-varying data set indicate that encoding multiple variables results in acceptable performance in the case of spatial and temporal encoding as compared to independent compression of variables. The relative performance of spatial vs. temporal compression is data dependent, although temporal compression has the advantage of offering smooth animations, while spatial compression can handle volumes of larger dimensions.

  8. Uranium Watch REGULATORY CONFUSION: FEDERALAND STATE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uranium Watch Report REGULATORY CONFUSION: FEDERALAND STATE ENFORCEMENT OF 40 C.F.R. PART 61 SUBPART W INTRODUCTION 1. This Uranium Watch Report, Regulatory Confusion: Federal and State Enforcement at the White Mesa Uranium Mill, San Juan County, Utah. 2. The DAQ, a Division of the Utah Department

  9. Environment, safety, and health regulatory implementation plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    To identify, document, and maintain the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project`s environment, safety, and health (ES&H) regulatory requirements, the US Department of Energy (DOE) UMTRA Project Office tasked the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) to develop a regulatory operating envelope for the UMTRA Project. The system selected for managing the UMTRA regulatory operating envelope data bass is based on the Integrated Project Control/Regulatory Compliance System (IPC/RCS) developed by WASTREN, Inc. (WASTREN, 1993). The IPC/RCS is a tool used for identifying regulatory and institutional requirements and indexing them to hardware, personnel, and program systems on a project. The IPC/RCS will be customized for the UMTRA Project surface remedial action and groundwater restoration programs. The purpose of this plan is to establish the process for implementing and maintaining the UMTRA Project`s regulatory operating envelope, which involves identifying all applicable regulatory and institutional requirements and determining compliance status. The plan describes how the Project will identify ES&H regulatory requirements, analyze applicability to the UMTRA Project, and evaluate UMTRA Project compliance status.

  10. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  11. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  12. Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HELTON,JON CRAIG; DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; JOHNSON,J.D.

    2000-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.

  13. Energy Praises the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approval of...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Praises the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approval of the First United States Nuclear Plant Site in Over 30 Years Energy Praises the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approval...

  14. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information Smart Grid Implementation Input US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information Smart...

  15. Department of Energy and Nuclear Regulatory Commission Increase...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission Increase Cooperation to Advance Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Department of Energy and Nuclear Regulatory Commission Increase Cooperation to...

  16. Canada-United States Regulatory Cooperation Council Webinar:...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Canada-United States Regulatory Cooperation Council Webinar: Proposed Approach for Energy Efficiency Standards Canada-United States Regulatory Cooperation Council Webinar: Proposed...

  17. Changes in Translational Efficiency is a Dominant Regulatory...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Translational Efficiency is a Dominant Regulatory Mechanism in the Environmental Response of Bacteria. Changes in Translational Efficiency is a Dominant Regulatory Mechanism in the...

  18. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) | Department...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) "List of Covered Electric Utilities" under the Public Utility...

  19. Numerical uncertainty in computational engineering and physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Obtaining a solution that approximates ordinary or partial differential equations on a computational mesh or grid does not necessarily mean that the solution is accurate or even 'correct'. Unfortunately assessing the quality of discrete solutions by questioning the role played by spatial and temporal discretizations generally comes as a distant third to test-analysis comparison and model calibration. This publication is contributed to raise awareness of the fact that discrete solutions introduce numerical uncertainty. This uncertainty may, in some cases, overwhelm in complexity and magnitude other sources of uncertainty that include experimental variability, parametric uncertainty and modeling assumptions. The concepts of consistency, convergence and truncation error are overviewed to explain the articulation between the exact solution of continuous equations, the solution of modified equations and discrete solutions computed by a code. The current state-of-the-practice of code and solution verification activities is discussed. An example in the discipline of hydro-dynamics illustrates the significant effect that meshing can have on the quality of code predictions. A simple method is proposed to derive bounds of solution uncertainty in cases where the exact solution of the continuous equations, or its modified equations, is unknown. It is argued that numerical uncertainty originating from mesh discretization should always be quantified and accounted for in the overall uncertainty 'budget' that supports decision-making for applications in computational physics and engineering.

  20. Regulatory analysis technical evaluation handbook. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this Handbook is to provide guidance to the regulatory analyst to promote preparation of quality regulatory analysis documents and to implement the policies of the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG/BR-0058 Rev. 2). This Handbook expands upon policy concepts included in the NRC Guidelines and translates the six steps in preparing regulatory analyses into implementable methodologies for the analyst. It provides standardized methods of preparation and presentation of regulatory analyses, with the inclusion of input that will satisfy all backfit requirements and requirements of NRC`s Committee to Review Generic Requirements. Information on the objectives of the safety goal evaluation process and potential data sources for preparing a safety goal evaluation is also included. Consistent application of the methods provided here will result in more directly comparable analyses, thus aiding decision-makers in evaluating and comparing various regulatory actions. The handbook is being issued in loose-leaf format to facilitate revisions. NRC intends to periodically revise the handbook as new and improved guidance, data, and methods become available.

  1. Fractional revivals through Rényi uncertainty relations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elvira Romera; Francisco de los Santos

    2014-09-19T23:59:59.000Z

    We show that the R\\'enyi uncertainty relations give a good description of the dynamical behavior of wave packets and constitute a sound approach to revival phenomena by analyzing three model systems: the simple harmonic oscillator, the infinite square well, and the quantum bouncer. We prove the usefulness of entropic uncertainty relations as a tool for identifying fractional revivals by providing a comparison in different contexts with the usual Heisenberg uncertainty relation and with the common approach in terms of the autocorrelation function.

  2. Uncertainty Quantification on Prompt Fission Neutrons Spectra

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Talou, P. [T-16, Nuclear Physics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545 (United States)], E-mail: talou@lanl.gov; Madland, D.G.; Kawano, T. [T-16, Nuclear Physics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545 (United States)

    2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in the evaluated prompt fission neutrons spectra present in ENDF/B-VII.0 are assessed in the framework of the Los Alamos model. The methodology used to quantify the uncertainties on an evaluated spectrum is introduced. We also briefly review the Los Alamos model and single out the parameters that have the largest influence on the calculated results. Using a Kalman filter, experimental data and uncertainties are introduced to constrain model parameters, and construct an evaluated covariance matrix for the prompt neutrons spectrum. Preliminary results are shown in the case of neutron-induced fission of {sup 235}U from thermal up to 15 MeV incident energies.

  3. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY Chandrashekhar M.* , Ranjan Uncertainties associated with a structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage that material uncertainties in composite structures cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can

  4. Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Donald, Bruce Randall

    1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has ...

  5. Characterization and assessment of uncertainty in San Juan Reservoir Santa Rosa Field

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Becerra, Ernesto Jose

    2005-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

    and posterior distributions.23 Fig. 3.5 ? Cumulative density distribution for prior information....................................24 Fig. 3.6? Graphical display of varying ranges of uncertainty in EUR estimates with time... ........................................25 TABLE 3.7 ? Volumetric EUR Decreased by 33 % of Most Likely Value ...................27 TABLE 3.8 ? Volumetric EUR Increased by 33 % of Most Likely Value.....................28 TABLE 3.9 ? Standard Deviation in Volumetric EUR Doubled...

  6. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl

    2008-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

    The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.

  7. 258 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION, VOL. 17, NO. 3, JUNE 2001 Computing the Sensory Uncertainty Field of a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rivlin, Ehud

    of the SUF. The above men- tioned works [11], [13], [15] all used a range sensor. The basic method Uncertainty Field of a Vision-Based Localization Sensor Amit Adam, Ehud Rivlin, and Ilan Shimshoni, Member the varying performance of localization sensors across the configuration space. Although a number of works

  8. Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

  9. Methods for Composing Tradeoff Studies under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bily, Christopher

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    for the power train. This level of knowledge reuse is in keeping with good systems engineering practice. However, existing procedures for generating tradeoff studies under uncertainty involve assumptions that preclude engineers from composing them in a...

  10. Uncertainty Quantification in ocean state estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kalmikov, Alexander G

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying uncertainty and error bounds is a key outstanding challenge in ocean state estimation and climate research. It is particularly difficult due to the large dimensionality of this nonlinear estimation problem and ...

  11. A note on competitive investment under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper clarifies how uncertainty affects irreversible investment in a competitive market equilibrium. With free entry, irreversibility affects the distribution of future prices, and thereby creates an opportunity cost ...

  12. Handling uncertainty in DEX methodology Martin Znidarsic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bohanec, Marko

    URPDM2010 1 Handling uncertainty in DEX methodology Martin Znidarsic Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova cesta 39, martin.znidarsic@ijs.si Marko Bohanec Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova cesta 39, marko

  13. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Guohong

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    To make sound investment decisions, decision makers need accurate estimates of the uncertainties present in forecasts of reservoir performance. In this work I propose a method, the integrated mismatch method, that incorporates the misfit...

  14. Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christensen, Daniel Erik

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

  15. Sandia Energy - Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy Home Highlights - HPC Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy Previous Next...

  16. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Abstract: A...

  17. avt-147 computational uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Summary: models of uncertainties, the construction of the stochastic models using the maximum entropy principleStochastic modeling of uncertainties in computational structural...

  18. advanced lmrs uncertainties: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Summary: models of uncertainties, the construction of the stochastic models using the maximum entropy principleStochastic modeling of uncertainties in computational structural...

  19. Discriminative Learning of Composite Transcriptional Regulatory Modules

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedman, Nir

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 4.2 Methionine metabolism cis-Regulatory complex . . . . . . . . . . 28 4.3 Genome-wide Yeast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 6 Discussion 37 A Calculating the Likelihood's Gradient 39 B Genome-wide Yeast Location Analysis

  20. Reliability and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation—given at the Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) Fall 2008 meeting—covers the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) strategic plan, the Federal Power Act (FPA), current energy security posture, and more.

  1. Evolution and statistics of biological regulatory networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chandalia, Juhi Kiran, 1979-

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis, I study the process of evolution of the gene regulatory network in Escherichia coli. First, I characterize the portion of the network that has been documented, and then I simulate growth of the network. In ...

  2. Regulatory roles of endothelial cells in cancer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franses, Joseph W. (Joseph Wang)

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis describes the biochemical regulatory impact of endothelial cells, the cells that line all blood vessels, in cancer. Our work draws from concepts in vascular repair and tissue engineering and extends the view ...

  3. Natural Gas Regulatory Policy: Current Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watkins, G.

    1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    developments in federal and state regulatory arenas and their impacts on purchasing options. Among the issues discussed will be: 1. Federal Regulation a. Self-implementing transportation b. Service obligation c. Pipeline capacity brokering d. Non...

  4. Regulatory status of transgrafted plants is unclear

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haroldsen, Victor M; Paulino, Gabriel; Chi-ham, Cecilia; Bennett, Alan B

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    3. Graff GD, Wright BD, Bennett AB, Zilberman D. 2004. Ac-PIPRA, Davis; and A.B. Bennett is Profes- sor, Department ofL. Chi-Ham and Alan B. Bennett T he regulatory implications

  5. Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DURHAM, L.A.; JOHNSON, R.L.; RIEMAN, C.R.; SPECTOR, H.L.; Environmental Science Division; U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS BUFFALO DISTRICT

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the preremedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in predesign data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in predesign characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland1, Ashland2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate predesign contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District.

  6. Natural Gas Regulatory Policy: Current Issues

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watkins, G.

    NATURAL GAS REGULATORY roLICY: CURRENT ISSUES G. GAIL WATKINS Railroad Commission of Texas Austin, Texas ABSTRACT Many changes have occurred in recent months in both federal and state natural gas regulation. Those changes have increased... the options of industrial energy consumers for purchasing and moving natural gas. This panel viII discuss important developments in federal and state regulatory arenas and their impacts on purchasing options. Among the issues discussed viII be: 1...

  7. Modeling and control of genetic regulatory networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pal, Ranadip

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    MODELING AND CONTROL OF GENETIC REGULATORY NETWORKS A Dissertation by RANADIP PAL Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2007 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering MODELING AND CONTROL OF GENETIC REGULATORY NETWORKS A Dissertation by RANADIP PAL Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR...

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

    2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

  9. A component GARCH model with time varying weights

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nesterov, Yurii

    2007/19 A component GARCH model with time varying weights Luc Bauwens and Giuseppe Storti #12;CORE DISCUSSION PAPER 2007/19 A component GARCH model with time varying weights Luc BAUWENS1 and Giuseppe STORTI2 March2007 Abstract We present a novel GARCH model that accounts for time varying, state dependent

  10. Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (EA . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives . . . . . 15 2.2 Whale watching activity in Alaska

  11. INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chauhan, Sanjay S.

    on the topic of uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis the reader is referred to Morgan to incorporating input uncertainties into risk analysis model. Input uncertainties are captured by using for uncertainty analysis in dam safety risk assessment, and demonstrates some useful formats for presenting

  12. Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guibas, Leonidas J.

    Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1 , David Hsu2 , Hanna Kurniawati2 uncertainty during planning. We in- troduce the notion of a bounded uncertainty roadmap (BURM) and use, and it is not much slower than classic probabilistic roadmap planning algorithms, which ignore uncertainty

  13. Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clavreul, Julie, E-mail: julc@env.dtu.dk [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark); Guyonnet, Dominique [BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orleans Cedex (France); Christensen, Thomas H. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)

    2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.

  14. Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M. [and others

    1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible.

  15. Regulatory Closure Options for the Residue in the Hanford Site Single-Shell Tanks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cochran, J.R. Shyr, L.J.

    1998-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Liquid, mixed, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) has been stored in 149 single-shell tanks (SSTS) located in tank farms on the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hanford Site. The DOE is developing technologies to retrieve as much remaining HLW as technically possible prior to physically closing the tank farms. In support of the Hanford Tanks Initiative, Sandia National Laboratories has addressed the requirements for the regulatory closure of the radioactive component of any SST residue that may remain after physical closure. There is significant uncertainty about the end state of each of the 149 SSTS; that is, the nature and amount of wastes remaining in the SSTS after retrieval is uncertain. As a means of proceeding in the face of these uncertainties, this report links possible end-states with associated closure options. Requirements for disposal of HLW and low-level radioactive waste (LLW) are reviewed in detail. Incidental waste, which is radioactive waste produced incidental to the further processing of HLW, is then discussed. If the low activity waste (LAW) fraction from the further processing of HLW is determined to be incidental waste, then DOE can dispose of that incidental waste onsite without a license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRC). The NRC has proposed three Incidental Waste Criteria for determining if a LAW fraction is incidental waste. One of the three Criteria is that the LAW fraction should not exceed the NRC's Class C limits.

  16. Uncertainty Analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling Event of the PBMR Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jansen van Rensburg, Pieter A.; Sage, Martin G. [PBMR, 1279 Mike Crawford Avenue, Centurion 0046 (South Africa)

    2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents an uncertainty analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) event that was performed with the systems CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code Flownex for the PBMR reactor. An uncertainty analysis was performed to determine the variation in maximum fuel, core barrel and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) temperature due to variations in model input parameters. Some of the input parameters that were varied are: thermo-physical properties of helium and the various solid materials, decay heat, neutron and gamma heating, pebble bed pressure loss, pebble bed Nusselt number and pebble bed bypass flows. The Flownex model of the PBMR reactor is a 2-dimensional axisymmetrical model. It is simplified in terms of geometry and some other input values. However, it is believed that the model adequately indicates the effect of changes in certain input parameters on the fuel temperature and other components during a DLOFC event. Firstly, a sensitivity study was performed where input variables were varied individually according to predefined uncertainty ranges and the results were sorted according to the effect on maximum fuel temperature. In the sensitivity study, only seven variables had a significant effect on the maximum fuel temperature (greater that 5 deg. C). The most significant are power distribution profile, decay heat, reflector properties and effective pebble bed conductivity. Secondly, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which twenty variables were varied simultaneously within predefined uncertainty ranges. For a one-tailed 95% confidence level, the conservatism that should be added to the best estimate calculation of the maximum fuel temperature for a DLOFC was determined as 53 deg. C. This value will probably increase after some model refinements in the future. Flownex was found to be a valuable tool for uncertainly analyses, facilitating both sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo analyses. (authors)

  17. ISO/GUM UNCERTAINTIES AND CIAAW (UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT FOR RECOMMENDED ATOMIC WEIGHTS AND ISOTOPIC ABUNDANCES)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HOLDEN,N.E.

    2007-07-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). The IUPAC Commission on Isotopic Abundance and Atomic Weight (CIAAW) began attaching uncertainty limits to their recommended values about forty years ago. CIAAW's method for determining and assigning uncertainties has evolved over time. We trace this evolution to their present method and their effort to incorporate the basic ISO/GUM procedures into evaluations of these uncertainties. We discuss some dilemma the CIAAW faces in their present method and whether it is consistent with the application of the ISO/GUM rules. We discuss the attempt to incorporate variations in measured isotope ratios, due to natural fractionation, into the ISO/GUM system. We make some observations about the inconsistent treatment in the incorporation of natural variations into recommended data and uncertainties. A recommendation for expressing atomic weight values using a tabulated range of values for various chemical elements is discussed.

  18. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O'Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

    1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide transport in formations overlying the repository, and complementary cumulative distribution functions used in comparisons with regulatory standards (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B).

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    and regulatory uncertainties vary across options for new capacity.... Read full section Nuclear power plant capacity grows slowly through uprates and new builds.... Read full...

  20. Uncertainty and error in computational simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oberkampf, W.L.; Diegert, K.V.; Alvin, K.F.; Rutherford, B.M.

    1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present paper addresses the question: ``What are the general classes of uncertainty and error sources in complex, computational simulations?`` This is the first step of a two step process to develop a general methodology for quantitatively estimating the global modeling and simulation uncertainty in computational modeling and simulation. The second step is to develop a general mathematical procedure for representing, combining and propagating all of the individual sources through the simulation. The authors develop a comprehensive view of the general phases of modeling and simulation. The phases proposed are: conceptual modeling of the physical system, mathematical modeling of the system, discretization of the mathematical model, computer programming of the discrete model, numerical solution of the model, and interpretation of the results. This new view is built upon combining phases recognized in the disciplines of operations research and numerical solution methods for partial differential equations. The characteristics and activities of each of these phases is discussed in general, but examples are given for the fields of computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer. They argue that a clear distinction should be made between uncertainty and error that can arise in each of these phases. The present definitions for uncertainty and error are inadequate and. therefore, they propose comprehensive definitions for these terms. Specific classes of uncertainty and error sources are then defined that can occur in each phase of modeling and simulation. The numerical sources of error considered apply regardless of whether the discretization procedure is based on finite elements, finite volumes, or finite differences. To better explain the broad types of sources of uncertainty and error, and the utility of their categorization, they discuss a coupled-physics example simulation.

  1. Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rieman, C.R.; Spector, H.L. [U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District, Buffalo, NY (United States); Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L. [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Div., IL (United States)

    2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the pre-remedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in pre-design data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in pre-design characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland 1, Ashland 2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate pre-design contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District. (authors)

  2. Is the Heisenberg uncertainty relation really violated?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masao Kitano

    2008-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

    It has been pointed out that for some types of measurement the Heisenberg uncertainty relation seems to be violated. In order to save the situation a new uncertainty relation was proposed by Ozawa. Here we introduce revised definitions of error and disturbance taking into account the gain associated with generalized measurement interactions. With these new definitions, the validity of the Heisenberg inequality is recovered for continuous linear measurement interactions. We also examine the changes in distribution functions caused by the general measurement interaction and clarify the physical meanings of infinitely large errors and disturbances.

  3. Ultrasonic liquid-level detector for varying temperature and pressure environments

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Anderson, R.L.; Miller, G.N.

    1981-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

    An ultrasonic liquid level detector for use in varying temperature and pressure environments, such as a pressurized water nuclear reactor vessel, is provided. The detector employs ultrasonic extensional and torsional waves launched in a multiplexed alternating sequence into a common sensor. The sensor is a rectangular cross section stainless steel rod which extends into the liquid medium whose level is to be detected. The sensor temperature derived from the extensional wave velocity measurements is used to compensate for the temperature dependence of the torsional wave velocity measurements which are also level dependent. The torsional wave velocity measurements of a multiple reflection sensor then provide a measurement of liquid level over a range of several meters with a small uncertainty over a temperature range of 20 to 250/sup 0/C and pressures up to 15 MPa.

  4. Varying speed of light cosmology from a stringy short distance cutoff

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. C. Niemeyer

    2001-11-26T23:59:59.000Z

    It is shown that varying speed of light cosmology follows from a string-inspired minimal length uncertainty relation. Due to the reduction of the available phase space volume per quantum mode at short wavelengths, the equation of state of ultrarelativistic particles stiffens at very high densities. This causes a stronger than usual deceleration of the scale factor which competes with a higher than usual propagation speed of the particles. Various measures for the effective propagation speed are analyzed: the group and phase velocity in the high energy tail, the thermal average of the group and phase velocity, and the speed of sound. Of these three groups, only the first provides a possible solution to the cosmological horizon problem.

  5. Varying speed of light cosmology from a stringy short distance cutoff

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niemeyer, J C

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is shown that varying speed of light cosmology follows from a string-inspired minimal length uncertainty relation. Due to the reduction of the available phase space volume per quantum mode at short wavelengths, the equation of state of ultrarelativistic particles stiffens at very high densities. This causes a stronger than usual deceleration of the scale factor which competes with a higher than usual propagation speed of the particles. Various measures for the effective propagation speed are analyzed: the group and phase velocity in the high energy tail, the thermal average of the group and phase velocity, and the speed of sound. Of these three groups, only the first provides a possible solution to the cosmological horizon problem.

  6. FORMALISM FOR INCLUSION OF MEASURED REACTION CROSS SECTIONS IN STELLAR RATES INCLUDING UNCERTAINTIES AND ITS APPLICATION TO NEUTRON CAPTURE IN THE s-PROCESS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rauscher, Thomas [Department of Physics, University of Basel, CH-4056 Basel (Switzerland)

    2012-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

    A general formalism to include experimental reaction cross sections into calculations of stellar rates is presented. It also allows us to assess the maximally possible reduction of uncertainties in the stellar rates by experiments. As an example for the application of the procedure, stellar neutron capture reactivities from KADoNiS v0.3 are revised and the remaining uncertainties shown. Many of the uncertainties in the stellar rates are larger than those obtained experimentally. This has important consequences for s-process models and the interpretation of meteoritic data because it allows the rates of some reactions to vary within a larger range than previously assumed.

  7. Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Yong

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Management   System Flexible   Appliances   Distributed  Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices by YongYing-Ju Chen Spring 2013 Flexible Demand Management under

  8. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  9. Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Draper, David

    (joint work with Bruno Mendes) Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics University of California and analysis of variance tools provide sensitivity analysis insight. -- Model uncertainty audit shows, as an energy source, has been employed in the United States and Europe for more than 50 years, and yet

  10. Stochastic Reduced Basis Methods for Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sóbester, András

    Turbine Blades In general, stochastic analysis (using SRBM) of any physical system involves two main steps the variability in the performance of a turbine blade in the presence of uncertainty. These blades operate variability in material properties and boundary condi- tions. Given a numerical solution of the set of SPDEs

  11. Model Uncertainty in Discrete Event Systems \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garg, Vijay

    that a correct model of the system to be controlled was avail­ able. A goal of this wok is to provide be controllably distin­ guished. We use the finite state machine model with controllable and uncontrollable events to control systems in the presence of uncertainty in the model of the system and environment in which

  12. IJCAI-05 Workshop Reasoning with Uncertainty in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pineau, Joelle

    Problems via Spatio-Temporal Belief State Clustering [p.17] X. Li, W.K. Cheung, and J. Liu Dept Uncertainty [p. 70] P. Fabiani and F. Teichteil-K¨onigsbuch ONERA/DCSC, Toulouse, France iii #12;iv #12;IJCAI, Canada) Stergios Roumeliotis (University of Minnesota, USA) Nicholas Roy (MIT, USA) Alessandro Saffiotti

  13. Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty The Challenge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitton, Mary C.

    Roadmap (SMR), a new motion planning framework that explicitly considers uncertainty in robot motion approach. Our framework builds on the highly successful approach used in Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRMs of discrete states is selected in the state space, and a roadmap is built that represents their collision

  14. Dynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of the required treatment. There are mainly two types of maintenance activities: the preventive maintenance, whoseDynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties Fran¸cois Marmier, Christophe in maintenance services field where the different practical knowledges or skills are their working tools. We

  15. Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fondren, Mark Edward

    2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

    that uncertainty can be assessed more reliably through look-backs and calibration, i.e., comparing actual results to probabilistic predictions over time. While many recognize the importance of look-backs, calibration is seldom practiced in industry. I believe a...

  16. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  17. Whitening for Photometric Comparison of Smooth Surfaces under Varying Illumination

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lindenbaum, Michael

    produce lighting insensitive im- age comparisons. While our Gaussian assumption is a simplificationWhitening for Photometric Comparison of Smooth Surfaces under Varying Illumination Margarita the problem of image comparison in order to match smooth surfaces under varying illumination. In a smooth

  18. Characterized ideal LC circuit Charge, current and voltage vary sinusoidally

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertulani, Carlos A. - Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A&M University

    resistance to LC circuit Oscillations become damped Charge, current and voltage still vary sinusoidally Oscillations Draw phasors for voltages of R, C and L at same time t Orient VR, VL, & VC phasors relativeReview Characterized ideal LC circuit Charge, current and voltage vary sinusoidally Added

  19. On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vijay

    On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability Vijay Gupta Department of Electrical control algorithm for the situation when the processor resource availability is time-varying. The basic the processing resources available at every time step. Thus, the system evolves as a discrete time hybrid system

  20. On the modeling of time-varying delays

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shah, Chirag Laxmikant

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis is an effort to develop generalized dynamic models for systems with time-varying time delays. Unlike the simple time-delay model characterized by a transportation lag in the case of a fixed time delay, time-varying delays exhibit quite...

  1. Zooplankton behavioral responses to solar UV radiation vary within and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williamson, Craig E.

    - and low-UV lake at varying times of day and cloud cover. In the high-UV lake, the cladoceran Daphnia, our understanding of effects of ultra- violet radiation (UVR) on aquatic ecosystems has increasedZooplankton behavioral responses to solar UV radiation vary within and among lakes DINA M. LEECH

  2. Regulatory Promotion of Emergent CCS Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davies, Lincoln; Uchitel, Kirsten; Johnson, David

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Despite the growing inevitability of climate change and the attendant need for mitigation strategies, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has yet to gain much traction in the United States. Recent regulatory proposals by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), limited in scope to new-build power plants, represent the only significant policy initiative intended to mandate diffusion of CCS technology. Phase I of this Project assessed barriers to CCS deployment as prioritized by the CCS community. That research concluded that there were four primary barriers: (1) cost, (2) lack of a carbon price, (3) liability, and (4) lack of a comprehensive regulatory regime. Phase II of this Project, as presented in this Report, assesses potential regulatory models for CCS and examines where those models address the hurdles to diffusing CCS technology identified in Phase I. It concludes (1) that a CCS-specific but flexible standard, such as a technology performance standard or a very particular type of market-based regulation, likely will promote CCS diffusion, and (2) that these policies cannot work alone, but rather, should be combined with other measures, such as liability limits and a comprehensive CCS regulatory regime.

  3. A Comparison of International Regulatory Organizations and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aickelin, Uwe

    the safety regulation and the licensing of new nuclear power plants. The paper considers both design safety great emphasis to safety issues during the licensing process of any new nuclear plant. FurthermoreA Comparison of International Regulatory Organizations and Licensing Procedures for New Nuclear

  4. Time varying voltage combustion control and diagnostics sensor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chorpening, Benjamin T. (Morgantown, WV); Thornton, Jimmy D. (Morgantown, WV); Huckaby, E. David (Morgantown, WV); Fincham, William (Fairmont, WV)

    2011-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

    A time-varying voltage is applied to an electrode, or a pair of electrodes, of a sensor installed in a fuel nozzle disposed adjacent the combustion zone of a continuous combustion system, such as of the gas turbine engine type. The time-varying voltage induces a time-varying current in the flame which is measured and used to determine flame capacitance using AC electrical circuit analysis. Flame capacitance is used to accurately determine the position of the flame from the sensor and the fuel/air ratio. The fuel and/or air flow rate (s) is/are then adjusted to provide reduced flame instability problems such as flashback, combustion dynamics and lean blowout, as well as reduced emissions. The time-varying voltage may be an alternating voltage and the time-varying current may be an alternating current.

  5. Regulatory Impacts for Renewable Energy Projects on Indian Lands...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Regulatory Impacts for Renewable Energy Projects on Indian Lands Webinar Regulatory Impacts for Renewable Energy Projects on Indian Lands Webinar June 24, 2015 11:00AM to 12:30PM...

  6. Integrative approaches for systematic reconstruction of regulatory circuits in mammals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Santos Botelho Oliveira Leite, Ana Paula

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The reconstruction of regulatory networks is one of the most challenging tasks in systems biology. Although some models for inferring regulatory networks can make useful predictions about the wiring and mechanisms of ...

  7. How Regulatory Policy Impacts Large Scale Cogeneration Facilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, A. J. Jr.

    Congress passed the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) in November 1978. It was about two years before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) which was charged with promulgating rules implementing PURPA, completed this task...

  8. US Department of Energys Regulatory Negotiations Convening...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    on Commercial Certification for Heating, Ventilating, Air-Conditioning, and Refrigeration Equipment US Department of Energys Regulatory Negotiations Convening on...

  9. Fact Sheet: DOE/National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissione...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Fact Sheet: DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Natural Gas Infrastructure Modernization Partnership Summary: Building on many years of productive...

  10. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean (ProStat, Mesa, AZ); Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  11. Safety research programs sponsored by Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research: Quarterly progress report, July 1-September 30, 1986

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bari, R.A.; Bezler, P.; Boccio, J.L.; Ginsberg, T.; Greene, G.A.; Guppy, J.G.; Hall, R.E.; Hofmayer, C.H.; Khatib-Rahbar, H.; Luckas, W.J. Jr.

    1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This progress report will describe current activities and technical progress in the programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory sponsored by the Division of Accident Evaluation, Division of Engineering Technology, and Division of Risk Analysis and Operations of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The projects reported are the following: High Temperature Reactor Research, SSC code improvements, Thermal-Hydraulic Reactor Safety Experiments, Thermodynamic Core-Concrete Interaction Experiments and Analysis, Plant Analyzer, Code Assessment and Application, Code Maintenance (RAMONA-3B), MELCOR Verification and Benchmarking, Source Term Code Package Verification and Benchmarking, Uncertainty Analysis of the Source Term; Stress Corrosion Cracking of PWR Steam Generator Tubing, Soil-Structure Interaction Evaluation and Structural Benchmarks, Identification of Age Related Failure Modes; Application of HRA/PRA Results to Support Resolution of Generic Safety Issues Involving Human Performance, Protective Action Decisionmaking, Rebaseling of Risk for Zion, Containment Performance Design Objective, and Operational Safety Reliability Research.

  12. A UPF3-mediated regulatory switch that maintains RNA surveillance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wilkinson, Miles F.

    A UPF3-mediated regulatory switch that maintains RNA surveillance Wai-Kin Chan1, Angela D Bhalla1RNAs. The regulation of NMD is poorly understood. Here we identify a regulatory mechanism acting on two related UPF (up-frameshift) factors crucial for NMD: UPF3A and UPF3B. This regulatory mechanism, which reduces the level of UPF3A

  13. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  14. Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Somanath, Amith

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

  15. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

  16. Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced in energy consumption due to actual weather and building operational practices, using a simulation

  17. The Time's Arrow within the Uncertainty Quantum

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhen Wang

    1998-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    A generalized framework is developed which uses a set description instead of wavefunction to emphasize the role of the observer. Such a framework is found to be very effective in the study of the measurement problem and time's arrow. Measurement in classical and quantum theory is given a unified treatment. With the introduction of the concept of uncertainty quantum which is the basic unit of measurement, we show that the time's arrow within the uncertainty quantum is just opposite to the time's arrow in the observable reality. A special constant is discussed which explains our sensation of time and provides a permanent substrate for all change. It is shown that the whole spacetime connects together in a delicate structure.

  18. Spectral Representations of Uncertainty: Algorithms and Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George Em Karniadakis

    2005-04-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The objectives of this project were: (1) Develop a general algorithmic framework for stochastic ordinary and partial differential equations. (2) Set polynomial chaos method and its generalization on firm theoretical ground. (3) Quantify uncertainty in large-scale simulations involving CFD, MHD and microflows. The overall goal of this project was to provide DOE with an algorithmic capability that is more accurate and three to five orders of magnitude more efficient than the Monte Carlo simulation.

  19. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given 7 refs., 2 tabs.

  20. Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

    2007-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

  1. Informatively optimal levels of confidence for mesurement uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Kisets

    2011-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Oct 13, 2011 ... netvision.net.il) ... "Informatively optimal combining, expanding, and establishing traceability in evaluating measurement uncertainties".

  2. The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    in production forecasts will help in assessing risk and making good economic decisions. This study investigates the effect of combining dynamic data with the uncertainty in static data to see the effect on estimates of uncertainty in production forecasting... combined with linear uncertainty analysis. The results were compared with the uncertainty predicted using only static data. We also investigated approaches for best selecting a smaller number of models from a larger set of realizations to be history...

  3. Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

  4. Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, Allan R.

    Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov , Kwansik Kim , Pierre F. J uncertainty information in direct volume rendering. The goal is to produce vol- ume rendered images the uncertainty information directly into the volume rendering equation. The second method involves post

  5. Uncertainty, Performance, and Model Dependency in Approximate Adaptive Nonlinear Control

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Szepesvari, Csaba

    Uncertainty, Performance, and Model Dependency in Approximate Adaptive Nonlinear Control M. French, and the performance of a class of approximate model based adaptive controllers is studied. An upper performance bound uncertainty model; control effort bounds require both L 2 and L 1 uncertainty models), and various structural

  6. Trio: A System for Data, Uncertainty, and Lineage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejerano, Gill

    or resolve uncertainty #12;13 Our Goal Develop a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all first-class interrelated concepts With all the "usual" DBMS a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all

  7. antigen expression varies: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ikeda; Kazuo Katoh; Hiroyuki Koshimoto; Yoshihiro Yoshihara; Kensaku Mori 1993-01-01 10 NANO EXPRESS Open Access AuPd core-shell nanoparticles with varied hollow Energy Storage,...

  8. Fractal geometry predicts varying body size scaling relationships

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    .............................................................. Fractal geometry predicts varying scaling based on fractal resource distributions, in which resource encounter rates are a function of body that are multiples of 1/4, which have been recently explained from the fractal branching architecture of organisms4

  9. Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish

    2005-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

  10. Regulatory strategies for remediation of contaminated sediments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zar, H. [Environmental Protection Agency, Chicago, IL (United States)

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    A number of federal and state laws may be used to obtain remediation of contaminated sediments in the US. Until recently, the most prominent approaches at the federal level were the use of Superfund authorities for sites on the National priority List and navigational dredging activity by the Corps of Engineers. However, with the increasing concern about contaminated sediments, regional offices of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state agencies have begun to use a greater variety of regulatory approaches, both individually and in combination. These efforts have been particularly evident in the Great Lakes and are now being extended nationwide, as embodied in the EPA`s Contaminated Sediment Management Strategy. This paper will describe some of the regulatory approaches being applied, case examples in the Great Lakes area, and the expected directions of these efforts, as embodied in the national strategy.

  11. Papers on the nuclear regulatory dilemma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barkenbus, J.N.; Freeman, S.D.; Weinberg, A.M.

    1985-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The four papers contained in this report are titled: (1) From Prescriptive to Performance-Based Regulation of Nuclear Power; (2) Nuclear Regulatory Reform: A Technology-Forcing Approach; (3) Improving the Regulation of Nuclear Power; and (4) Science and Its Limits: The Regulators' Dilemma. These four papers investigate issues relating to the long-term regulation of nuclear energy. They were prepared as part of the Institute for Energy Analysis' project on Nuclear Regulation funded by a grant from the Mellon Foundation and a smaller grant by the MacArthur Foundation. Originally this work was to be supplemented by contributions from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and from the Department of Energy. These contributions were not forthcoming, and as a result the scope of our investigations was more restricted than we had originally planned.

  12. Plant nitrogen regulatory P-PII genes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Coruzzi, Gloria M. (New York, NY); Lam, Hon-Ming (Hong Kong, HK); Hsieh, Ming-Hsiun (Woodside, NY)

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present invention generally relates to plant nitrogen regulatory PII gene (hereinafter P-PII gene), a gene involved in regulating plant nitrogen metabolism. The invention provides P-PII nucleotide sequences, expression constructs comprising said nucleotide sequences, and host cells and plants having said constructs and, optionally expressing the P-PII gene from said constructs. The invention also provides substantially pure P-PII proteins. The P-PII nucleotide sequences and constructs of the

  13. Regulatory Framework at LANL.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberg and SondershausenRegulatory Drivers In July

  14. Plant nitrogen regulatory P-PII polypeptides

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Coruzzi, Gloria M.; Lam, Hon-Ming; Hsieh, Ming-Hsiun

    2004-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The present invention generally relates to plant nitrogen regulatory PII gene (hereinafter P-PII gene), a gene involved in regulating plant nitrogen metabolism. The invention provides P-PII nucleotide sequences, expression constructs comprising said nucleotide sequences, and host cells and plants having said constructs and, optionally expressing the P-PII gene from said constructs. The invention also provides substantially pure P-PII proteins. The P-PII nucleotide sequences and constructs of the invention may be used to engineer organisms to overexpress wild-type or mutant P-PII regulatory protein. Engineered plants that overexpress or underexpress P-PII regulatory protein may have increased nitrogen assimilation capacity. Engineered organisms may be used to produce P-PII proteins which, in turn, can be used for a variety of purposes including in vitro screening of herbicides. P-PII nucleotide sequences have additional uses as probes for isolating additional genomic clones having the promoters of P-PII gene. P-PII promoters are light- and/or sucrose-inducible and may be advantageously used in genetic engineering of plants.

  15. A Bayesian approach to simultaneously quantify assignments and linguistic uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC FREDERICKSBURG; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

    Subject matter expert assessments can include both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. This paper examines assessments containing linguistic uncertainty associated with a qualitative description of a specific state of interest and the assignment uncertainty associated with assigning a qualitative value to that state. A Bayesian approach is examined to simultaneously quantify both assignment and linguistic uncertainty in the posterior probability. The approach is applied to a simplified damage assessment model involving both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. The utility of the approach and the conditions under which the approach is feasible are examined and identified.

  16. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  17. Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

  18. Measurement uncertainty in surface flatness measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. L. Thang

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Flatness of a plate is a parameter has been put under consideration for long time. Factors influencing the accuracy of this parameter have been recognized and examined carefully but placed scatterringly. Beside that those reports have not been always in harmonization with Guide for expression of uncertainty measurement (GUM). Furthermore, mathematical equations describing clearly the flatness measurement have not been seen in those reports also. We have collected those influencing factors for systematic reference purpose, re-written the equation describing the profile measurement of the plate topography, and proposed an equation for flatness determination. An illustrative numerical example will be also shown.

  19. Photon propagation in slowly varying inhomogeneous electromagnetic fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Felix Karbstein; Rashid Shaisultanov

    2015-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Starting from the Heisenberg-Euler effective Lagrangian, we determine the photon current and photon polarization tensor in inhomogeneous, slowly varying electromagnetic fields. To this end, we consider background field configurations varying in both space and time, paying special attention to the tensor structure. As a main result, we obtain compact analytical expressions for the photon polarization tensor in realistic Gaussian laser pulses, as generated in the focal spots of high-intensity lasers. These expressions are of utmost importance for the investigation of quantum vacuum nonlinearities in realistic high-intensity laser experiments.

  20. Photon propagation in slowly varying inhomogeneous electromagnetic fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karbstein, Felix

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Starting from the Heisenberg-Euler effective Lagrangian, we determine the photon current and photon polarization tensor in inhomogeneous, slowly varying electromagnetic fields. To this end, we consider background field configurations varying in both space and time, paying special attention to the tensor structure. As a main result, we obtain compact analytical expressions for the photon polarization tensor in realistic Gaussian laser pulses, as generated in the focal spots of high-intensity lasers. These expressions are of utmost importance for the investigation of quantum vacuum nonlinearities in realistic high-intensity laser experiments.

  1. Uncertainty evaluation in transition temperature measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brillaud, C. [Electricite de France, Avoine (France); Augendre, H. [Electricite de France, Clamart (France); Bethmont, M. [Electricite de France, Ecuelles (France)

    1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The pressure vessel surveillance program is mainly based on the transition temperature change assessment, a change which is induced by neutron irradiation. Uncertainties in Charpy test measurements are well known; however, the authors are less familiar with uncertainties due to general procedures governing experiments, which can be significant and therefore must be taken into account. In fact, procedures specify neither the number of specimens needed to obtain a transition curve, nor the choice of test temperatures, nor the fitting method for the transition curve. A study has been conducted to determine the influence of the experimental procedure on the accuracy of transition temperature determination, and the initial results are presented in this paper. Two EDF laboratories performed Charpy tests on the surveillance program reference metal, using 8, 16, 24, 32 and 64 specimens to evaluate how the number of specimens affects the transition temperature. The influence of the scatter of mechanical properties has also been studied at two levels of irradiation. The authors have evaluated the effect of different sampling strategies and investigated a new fitting method, which is based on a simultaneous fitting of all curves with common constraints on parameters.

  2. Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

    2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

  3. Uncertainty quantification in reacting flow modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le MaÒitre, Olivier P. (UniversitÔe d'Evry Val d'Essonne, Evry, France); Reagan, Matthew T.; Knio, Omar M. (Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD); Ghanem, Roger Georges (Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD); Najm, Habib N.

    2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the computational modeling of physical systems is important for scientific investigation, engineering design, and model validation. In this work we develop techniques for UQ based on spectral and pseudo-spectral polynomial chaos (PC) expansions, and we apply these constructions in computations of reacting flow. We develop and compare both intrusive and non-intrusive spectral PC techniques. In the intrusive construction, the deterministic model equations are reformulated using Galerkin projection into a set of equations for the time evolution of the field variable PC expansion mode strengths. The mode strengths relate specific parametric uncertainties to their effects on model outputs. The non-intrusive construction uses sampling of many realizations of the original deterministic model, and projects the resulting statistics onto the PC modes, arriving at the PC expansions of the model outputs. We investigate and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and identify their utility under different conditions. We also outline areas where ongoing and future research are needed to address challenges with both approaches.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario

  6. New regulatory environment changing pipeline operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fields, J.H. (Northwest Pipeline Corp., Salt Lake City, UT (United States))

    1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper reviews the effects of deregulation of the natural gas and pipeline industry as a result of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Orders 436, 500, and 636. It describes the changes as they affected Northwest Pipeline's structure and marketing strategies as the company had to move from a gas merchandiser to a gas transporter. It describes the capacity release options of the pipeline which allow the customers to buy, release, and renegotiate prices whenever they need to because of an increase or decrease in demand using current market prices. The paper discusses the natural gas distribution system which has evolved as a result of these regulations.

  7. Re: Regulatory Burden RFI | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742 33 1112011 Strategic2 OPAM615_CostNSAR - TProcuring SolarNo.FrequencyEO-05-01:Regulatory Burden RFI

  8. Regulatory Burden RFI | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742 33 1112011 Strategic2 OPAM615_CostNSAR -Department of Energyas ofCheniere Energy, Inc.Regulatory

  9. Regulatory Commission of Alaska | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to:Ezfeedflag JumpID-f < RAPID‎ | Roadmap Jump to:bJumpRedSeismic(California andRegulatory

  10. NUCLEAR REGULATORY,.COMMISSION REGION I

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA group currentBradleyTableSelling7 August 2008REGULATORY,.COMMISSION REGION I

  11. Career Map: Regulatory Expert | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't Your Destiny: Theof Energy Change RequestFirst Report toFrequentlyProfessorRegulatory Expert

  12. Regulatory Drivers | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberg and SondershausenRegulatory Drivers In July 7,

  13. BLIND ITERATIVE RESTORATION OF IMAGES WITH SPATIALLY-VARYING BLUR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bardsley, John

    BLIND ITERATIVE RESTORATION OF IMAGES WITH SPATIALLY-VARYING BLUR John Bardsley Stuart Jefferies (PSF) by using a combination of methods including sectioning and phase diversity blind deconvolution whose PSFs are correlated and approximately spatially-invariant, and apply iterative blind deconvolution

  14. Mutual information in time-varying biochemical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Filipe Tostevin; Pieter Rein ten Wolde

    2010-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Cells must continuously sense and respond to time-varying environmental stimuli. These signals are transmitted and processed by biochemical signalling networks. However, the biochemical reactions making up these networks are intrinsically noisy, which limits the reliability of intracellular signalling. Here we use information theory to characterise the reliability of transmission of time-varying signals through elementary biochemical reactions in the presence of noise. We calculate the mutual information for both instantaneous measurements and trajectories of biochemical systems for a Gaussian model. Our results indicate that the same network can have radically different characteristics for the transmission of instantaneous signals and trajectories. For trajectories, the ability of a network to respond to changes in the input signal is determined by the timing of reaction events, and is independent of the correlation time of the output of the network. We also study how reliably signals on different time-scales can be transmitted by considering the frequency-dependent coherence and gain-to-noise ratio. We find that a detector that does not consume the ligand molecule upon detection can more reliably transmit slowly varying signals, while an absorbing detector can more reliably transmit rapidly varying signals. Furthermore, we find that while one reaction may more reliably transmit information than another when considered in isolation, when placed within a signalling cascade the relative performance of the two reactions can be reversed. This means that optimising signal transmission at a single level of a signalling cascade can reduce signalling performance for the cascade as a whole.

  15. Image-Based Reconstruction of Spatially Varying Materials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goesele, Michael

    Image-Based Reconstruction of Spatially Varying Materials Hendrik P. A. Lensch1 Jan Kautz1 Michael material properties is an important step towards photorealistic rendering. Many real-world objects are composed of a number of materials that often show subtle changes even within a single material. Thus

  16. The CHUVA Project how does convection vary across the Brazil?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre

    1 The CHUVA Project ­ how does convection vary across the Brazil? Luiz A. T. Machado1 , Maria A. F de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Brazil. 2. Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Brazil. 3. Departamento de Ciências e Tecnologia Espacial

  17. Time-Varying Fine-Structure Constant Requires Cosmological Constant

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. W. Kuhne

    1999-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Webb et al. presented preliminary evidence for a time-varying fine-structure constant. We show Teller's formula for this variation to be ruled out within the Einstein-de Sitter universe, however, it is compatible with cosmologies which require a large cosmological constant.

  18. On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vijay

    1 On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability V. Gupta Member, IEEE and F. Luo Abstract-- We propose an anytime algorithm for control when the processor resource availability is limited vector sequentially to maximally utilize the processing resources available at every time step

  19. Predicting Software Defects in Varying Development Lifecycles using Bayesian Nets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fenton, Norman

    Predicting Software Defects in Varying Development Lifecycles using Bayesian Nets Norman Fenton, this has required a custom- built BN for each software development lifecycle. We describe a more general BN software development lifecycle ­ to reflect both the differing number of testing stages in the lifecycle

  20. Time varying ISI model for nonlinear interference noise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dar, Ronen; Mecozzi, Antonio; Shtaif, Mark

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We show that the effect of nonlinear interference in WDM systems is equivalent to slowly varying inter-symbol-interference (ISI), and hence its cancellation can be carried out by means of adaptive linear filtering. We characterize the ISI coefficients and discuss the potential gain following from their cancellation.

  1. ORIGINAL PAPER Effects of varying thinning regimes on carbon uptake,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , a shortage of water may also affect its productivity (Bergh et al. 1999, 2005). The water shortage implies to the increasing soil water deficit, without management. · Materials and methods A process-based ecosystem model with varying soil water availability under the changing climate. · Results and discussion We found

  2. False Vacuum in the Supersymmetric Mass Varying Neutrino Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tanimoto, Morimitsu [Department of Physics, Niigata University, Niigata 950-2181 (Japan)

    2009-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss the vacuum structure of the scalar potential in a supersymmetric Mass Varying Neutrinos model. The observed dark energy density is identified with the false vacuum energy and the dark energy scale of order (10{sup -3} eV){sup 4} is understood by gravitationally suppressed supersymmetry breaking scale, F(TeV{sup 2})/M{sub pl}.

  3. Turbo Space-Time Codes with Time Varying Linear Transformations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haimovich, Alexander

    1 Turbo Space-Time Codes with Time Varying Linear Transformations Hangjun Chen and Alexander 07102 Email: {hangjun.chen; alexander.m.haimovich}@njit.edu Abstract Turbo space-time codes with symbols in this paper. It is shown that turbo codes with TVLT achieve full diversity gain and do not require exhaustive

  4. Environmental regulatory update table, September--October 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  5. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January/February 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action. This table is for January/February 1992.

  6. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January--February 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  7. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November--December 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly wit information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  8. Information resources in state regulatory agencies-a California perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DiZio, S.M. [California Environmental Protection Agency, Sacramento (United States)

    1990-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Various state regulatory agencies have expressed a need for networking with information gatherers/researchers to produce a concise compilation of primary information so that the basis for regulatory standards can be scientifically referenced. California has instituted several programs to retrieve primary information, generate primary information through research, and generate unique regulatory standards by integrating the primary literature and the products of research. This paper describes these programs.

  9. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January--February 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations ad contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  10. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November--December 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  11. Environmental regulatory update table, July/August 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E.; Salk, M.S.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  12. Environmental regulatory update table: September/October 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E.; Salk, M.S.

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  13. Environmental regulatory update table, March--April 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Health Sciences Research Div.; Salk, M.S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Div.

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  14. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May--June 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E.; Salk, M.S.

    1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bimonthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  15. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, July--August 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  16. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, March/April 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  17. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, September/October 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operation and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  18. Environmental sciences division: Environmental regulatory update table July 1988

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langston, M.E.; Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S.

    1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  19. Capturing Data Uncertainty in High-Volume Stream Processing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diao, Yanlei; Liu, Anna; Peng, Liping; Sutton, Charles; Tran, Thanh; Zink, Michael

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the design and development of a data stream system that captures data uncertainty from data collection to query processing to final result generation. Our system focuses on data that is naturally modeled as continuous random variables. For such data, our system employs an approach grounded in probability and statistical theory to capture data uncertainty and integrates this approach into high-volume stream processing. The first component of our system captures uncertainty of raw data streams from sensing devices. Since such raw streams can be highly noisy and may not carry sufficient information for query processing, our system employs probabilistic models of the data generation process and stream-speed inference to transform raw data into a desired format with an uncertainty metric. The second component captures uncertainty as data propagates through query operators. To efficiently quantify result uncertainty of a query operator, we explore a variety of techniques based on probability and statisti...

  20. Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.

  1. Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG, CNG-Hydrogen, Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Hydrogen, Hydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in China Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG, CNG-Hydrogen, Hydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in China Presentation given by Jinyang Zheng of...

  2. Effective Regulatory Institutions: The Regulator's Role in the...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Institutions: The Regulator's Role in the Policy Process, Including Issues of Regulatory Independence Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Effective...

  3. activities international regulatory: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    through active, but not inactive, regulatory links1,2. Thus Dunlop, Mary 4 INTERNAL AUDIT ACTIVITY ANNUAL REPORT Engineering Websites Summary: management, control, and...

  4. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION United States Department of Energy Docket No. EF13-5-000 Western Area Power Administration Washoe Project, Stampede...

  5. Mr. John Kinneman, Chief Nuclear Materfals Branch Nuclear Regulatory...

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    111989 Mr. John Kinneman, Chief Nuclear Materfals Branch Nuclear Regulatory Commission Region I 475 Allendale Road King of Prussia. Pennsylvania 19406 Dear Mr. Kinneman: -;' .-. 'W...

  6. Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage Regulatory Test Exercise...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage Regulatory Test Exercise: Output Report Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage...

  7. Public Utility Regulatory Act, Alternative Energy Providers (Texas)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Chapter 35 of the Public Utility Regulatory Act specifically addresses alternative energy providers, and contains provisions designed to aid such providers in selling power in Texas's competitive...

  8. Regulatory Roadmap Workshop for Federal Bulk Transmission Regulations...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    for bulk transmission. Date: Tuesday, 29 July, 2014 - 09:30 - 15:30 Location: NREL Education Center Auditorium Golden, Colorado Groups: Federal Bulk Transmission Regulatory...

  9. adipor1 regulatory region: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    regulatory rich different transcription factors. We perform on all the factors a multivariate analysis in the framework Gerstein, Mark 15 Genome Regions Involved in Multiple...

  10. Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop Toolkit (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Overview of DOE's Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit project, providing information on where to go to view documents and who to contact to get involved.

  11. angiogenesis regulatory factors: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Earnhart, Dietrich H. 2006-03-13 6 Utility & Regulatory Factors Affecting Cogeneration & Independent Power Plant Design & Operation Texas A&M University - TxSpace...

  12. Comments on Request For Information regarding Reducing Regulatory...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Request For Information regarding Reducing Regulatory Reform issued February 3, 2011 (Federal Register Vol. 76, No. 23 Thursday, February 3, 2011 Notices). Comments on Request...

  13. Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy: Recommenda...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy: Recommendations to the NRC Committee on Research Universities Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy:...

  14. Arsenic in Drinking Water: Regulatory Developments and Issues

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Order Code RS20672 Updated May 1, 2007 Arsenic in Drinking Water: Regulatory Developments and Issues Mary Tiemann Specialist in Environmental Policy Resources, Science, and...

  15. Comments from The National Association of Regulatory Utility...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) appreciates the opportunity to provide comments to the Department of Energy (DOE) on this Request for...

  16. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

  17. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape, methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.

  18. Analysis of uncertainties in CRAC2 calculations: the inhalation pathway

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CRAC2 is a computer code for estimating the health effects and economic costs that might result from a release of radioactivity from a nuclear reactor to the environment. This paper describes tests of sensitivity of the predicted health effects to uncertainties in parameters associated with inhalation of the released radionuclides. These parameters are the particle size of the carrier aerosol and, for each element in the release, the clearance parameters for the lung model on which the code's dose conversion factors for inhalation are based. CRAC2 uses hourly meteorological data and a straight-line Gaussian plume model to predict the transport of airborne radioactivity; it includes models for plume depletion and population evacuation, and data for the distributions of population and land use. The code can compute results for single weather sequences, or it can perform random sampling of weather sequences from the meteorological data file and compute results for each weather sequence in the sample. For the work described in this paper, we concentrated on three fixed weather sequences that represent a range of conditions. For each fixed weather sequence, we applied random sampling to joint distributions of the inhalation parameters in order to estimate the sensitivity of the predicted health effects. All sampling runs produced coefficients of variation that were less than 50%, but some differences of means between weather sequences were substantial, as were some differences between means and the corresponding CRAC2 results without random sampling. Early injuries showed differences of as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, while the differences in early fatalities were less than a factor of 2. Latent cancer fatalities varied by less than 10%. 19 references, 6 figures, 3 tables.

  19. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

    2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

  20. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF AVAILABLE ENERGY AND POWER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; John L. Morrison

    2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Idaho National Laboratory does extensive testing and evaluation of advanced technology batteries and ultracapacitors for applications in electric and hybrid vehicles. The testing is essentially acquiring time records of voltage, current and temperature from a variety of charge and discharge time profiles. From these three basic measured parameters, a complex assortment of derived parameters (resistance, power, etc.) is computed. Derived parameters are in many cases functions of multiple layers of other derived parameters that eventually work back to the three basic measured parameters. The purpose of this paper is to document the methodology used for the uncertainty analysis of the most complicated derived parameters broadly grouped as available energy and available power. This work is an analytical derivation. Future work will report the implementation of algorithms based upon this effort.

  1. Generalized uncertainty principle and black hole thermodynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sunandan Gangopadhyay; Abhijit Dutta; Anirban Saha

    2014-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the Schwarzschild and Reissner-Nordstr\\"{o}m black hole thermodynamics using the simplest form of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) proposed in the literature. The expressions for the mass-temperature relation, heat capacity and entropy are obtained in both cases from which the critical and remnant masses are computed. Our results are exact and reveal that these masses are identical and larger than the so called singular mass for which the thermodynamics quantities become ill-defined. The expression for the entropy reveals the well known area theorem in terms of the horizon area in both cases upto leading order corrections from GUP. The area theorem written in terms of a new variable which can be interpreted as the reduced horizon area arises only when the computation is carried out to the next higher order correction from GUP.

  2. accident consequence uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...

  3. analytical uncertainty propagation: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...

  4. assessing spatial uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...

  5. Special Issue on Integrated Uncertainty Management for Decision Making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    under soft constraints #12;· Application: ­ Ranking and recommendation systems ­ Supply chain management and decision making. Topics include but are not limited to: · Methodology: ­ Uncertainty formalisms: Bayesian

  6. Worst-case-expectation approach to optimization under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alexander Shapiro

    2012-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Oct 30, 2012 ... Worst-case-expectation approach to optimization under uncertainty ... approximation, risk neutral and risk averse approaches, case studies.

  7. A surrogate-based uncertainty quantification with quantifiable errors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Surrogate models are often employed to reduce the computational cost required to complete uncertainty quantification, where one is interested in propagating input parameters uncertainties throughout a complex engineering model to estimate responses uncertainties. An improved surrogate construction approach is introduced here which places a premium on reducing the associated computational cost. Unlike existing methods where the surrogate is constructed first, then employed to propagate uncertainties, the new approach combines both sensitivity and uncertainty information to render further reduction in the computational cost. Mathematically, the reduction is described by a range finding algorithm that identifies a subspace in the parameters space, whereby parameters uncertainties orthogonal to the subspace contribute negligible amount to the propagated uncertainties. Moreover, the error resulting from the reduction can be upper-bounded. The new approach is demonstrated using a realistic nuclear assembly model and compared to existing methods in terms of computational cost and accuracy of uncertainties. Although we believe the algorithm is general, it will be applied here for linear-based surrogates and Gaussian parameters uncertainties. The generalization to nonlinear models will be detailed in a separate article. (authors)

  8. Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedro Crespo Del Granado

    2015-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy ...

  9. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  10. DRAFT REPORT HIERARCHY OF METHODS TO CHARACTERIZE UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frey, H. Christopher

    ...................................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 Risk, Cost, Uncertainty and Decisions ........................................................... 20 1.4.3 Other Quantitative Methods.............................................................................................. 24 1.4.5 Sensitivity Analysis

  11. Nonmarket Valuation under Preference Uncertainty: Econometric Models and Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hanemann, W. Michael; Kristrom, Bengt; Li, Chuan-Zhong

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    3 The EconometricUNCERTAINTY: ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND ESTIMATION bY W. MichaelSection 3 introduces ihe econometric model. Section 4

  12. Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lemoine, Derek Mark

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties:about other firms’ investment cost. Third, if the regulatorIn addition, while making investment costs heterogeneous

  13. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  14. Which Models Matter: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Models Matter: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Photovoltaic Power Systems Clifford W. Hansen and Andrew Pohl Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, 87185-1033, USA...

  15. The Top Mass: Interpretation and Theoretical Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    André H. Hoang

    2014-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Currently the most precise LHC measurements of the top quark mass are determinations of the top quark mass parameter of Monte-Carlo (MC) event generators reaching uncertainties of well below $1$ GeV. However, there is an additional theoretical problem when using the MC top mass $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ as an input for theoretical predictions, because a rigorous relation of $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ to a renormalized field theory mass is, at the very strict level, absent. In this talk I show how - nevertheless - some concrete statements on $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ can be deduced assuming that the MC generator behaves like a rigorous first principles QCD calculator for the observables that are used for the analyses. I give simple conceptual arguments showing that in this context $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ can be interpreted like the mass of a heavy-light top meson, and that there is a conversion relation to field theory top quark masses that requires a non-perturbative input. The situation is in analogy to B physics where a similar relation exists between experimental B meson masses and field theory bottom masses. The relation gives a prescription how to use $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ as an input for theoretical predictions in perturbative QCD. The outcome is that at this time an additional uncertainty of about $1$ GeV has to be accounted for. I discuss limitations of the arguments I give and possible ways to test them, or even to improve the current situation.

  16. Chimera states in time-varying complex networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arturo Buscarino; Mattia Frasca; Lucia Valentina Gambuzza; Philipp Hovel

    2014-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Chimera states have been recently found in a variety of different coupling schemes and geometries. In most cases, the underlying coupling structure is considered to be static, while many realistic systems display significant temporal changes in the pattern of connectivity. In this work, we investigate a time-varying network made of two coupled populations of Kuramoto oscillators, where the links between the two groups are considered to vary over time. As a main result, we find that the network may support stable, breathing and alternating chimera states. We also find that, when the rate of connectivity changes is fast, compared to the oscillator dynamics, the network may be described by a low-dimensional system of equations. Unlike in the static heterogeneous case, the onset of alternating chimera states is due to the presence of fluctuations, which may be induced either by the finite size of the network or by large switching times.

  17. Visual discrimination at varying distances in domestic goats

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blakeman, Nancy Elizabeth

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    VISUAL DISCRIMINATION AT VARYINS DISTANCES IN DOMESTIC BOATS A Theaia by NANCY ELIZABETH SLAKEMAN Submitted ta the Sraduate Cel lege ef Taxaa ACcH Univaraity in partial fulfil leant of the requireeents far the degree ef MASTER OF 'SCIENCE... ) J. W. Bassett (Member ) S. C. Bait (Head' o+ Dept-tment) December 1983 Visual Discrimination at Varying Distances in Domestic Boats (December 1983) Nancy Elizabeth Blakeman, B. S. ~ Texas A S N University Chairman of Advisory Coemittee. Dr...

  18. Method and apparatus of prefetching streams of varying prefetch depth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gara, Alan (Mount Kisco, NY); Ohmacht, Martin (Yorktown Heights, NY); Salapura, Valentina (Chappaqua, NY); Sugavanam, Krishnan (Mahopac, NY); Hoenicke, Dirk (Seebruck-Seeon, DE)

    2012-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Method and apparatus of prefetching streams of varying prefetch depth dynamically changes the depth of prefetching so that the number of multiple streams as well as the hit rate of a single stream are optimized. The method and apparatus in one aspect monitor a plurality of load requests from a processing unit for data in a prefetch buffer, determine an access pattern associated with the plurality of load requests and adjust a prefetch depth according to the access pattern.

  19. Terrestrial Planet Formation in Disks with Varying Surface Density Profiles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sean N. Raymond; Thomas Quinn; Jonathan I. Lunine

    2005-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The ``minimum-mass solar nebula'' (MMSN) model estimates the surface density distribution of the protoplanetary disk by assuming the planets to have formed in situ. However, significant radial migration of the giant planets likely occurred in the Solar system, implying a distortion in the values derived by the MMSN method. The true density profiles of protoplanetary disks is therefore uncertain. Here we present results of simulations of late-stage terrestrial accretion, each starting from a disk of planetary embryos. We assume a power-law surface density profile that varies with heliocentric distance r as r^-alpha, and vary alpha between 1/2 and 5/2 (alpha = 3/2 for the MMSN model). We find that for steeper profiles (higher values of alpha), the terrestrial planets (i) are more numerous, (ii) form more quickly, (iii) form closer to the star, (iv) are more massive, (v) have higher iron contents, and (vi) have lower water contents. However, the possibility of forming potentially habitable planets does not appear to vary strongly with alpha.

  20. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW PROPOSAL TO CREATE DISTRICTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW FOR THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE DISTRICTS WITHIN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.1Environmental Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.2Regulatory Impact Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL AND BIOLOGICAL IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.1 Atka Mackerel Biology

  1. SECRETARIAL REVIEW DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    SECRETARIAL REVIEW DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ INITIAL REGULATORY The purpose of the non-AFA crab sideboard limits was to prevent vessels with crab QS from disadvantaging non for non-American Fisheries Act (AFA) crab vessels. In April 2007, the Council began developing options

  2. Staff Report to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    affecting competitive pricing of electric energy or reliability of service and (b) report its findingsStaff Report to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the Bulk Power Markets In the United of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, any individual Commissioner, or the Commission itself

  3. Approach of Czech regulatory body to LBB

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tendera, P.

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    At present there are two NPPs equipped with PWR units in Czech Republic. The Dukovany, NPP is about ten years in operation (four units 440 MW - WWBFL model 213) and Tomelin NPP is under construction (two units 1000 MW - WWER model 320). Both NPPs were built to Soviet design and according to Soviet regulations and standards but most of equipment for primary circuits was supplied by home manufacturers. The objective of the Czech LBB program is to prove the LBB status of the primary piping systems of there NPPs and the LBB concept is a part of strategy to meet western style safety standards. The reason for the Czech LBB project is a lack of some standard safety Facilities too. For both Dukovany and Tomelin NPPs a full LBB analysis should be carried out. The application of LBB to the piping system should be also a cost effective means to avoid installations of pipe whip restraints and jet shields. The Czech regulatory body issued non-mandatory requirement, {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} which is in compliance with national legal documents and which is based on the US NRC Regulatory Procedures and US standards (ASMF CODE, ANSI). The requirement has been published in the document {open_quotes}Safety of Nuclear Facilities{close_quotes} No 1/1991 as {open_quotes}Requirements on the Content and Format of Safety Reports and their Supplements{close_quote} and consist of two parts (1) procedure for obtaining proof of evidence {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} (2) leak detection systems for the pressurized reactor primary circuit. At present some changes concerning both parts of the above document will be introduced. The reasons for this modifications will be presented.

  4. Approach for Czech regulatory body to LBB

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tendera, P. [State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS), Prague (Czech Republic)

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    At present there are two NPPs equipped with PWR units in Czech Republic. The Dukovany NPP is about ten years in operation (four units 440 MW - WWER model 213) and Temelin NPP is under construction (two units 1000 MW-WWER model 320). Both NPPs were built to Soviet design and according to Soviet regulations and standards but most of equipment for primary circuits was supplied by home manufactures. The objective for the Czech LBB programme is to prove the LBB status of the primary piping systems of these NPPs and the LBB concept is a part of strategy to meet western style safety standards. The reason for the Czech LBB project is a lack of some standard safety facilities, too. For both Dukovany and Temolin NPPs a full LBB analysis should be carried out. The application of LBB to the piping system should be also a cost effective means to avoid installations of pipe whip restraints and jet shields. The Czech regulatory body issued non-mandatory requirement {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} which is in compliance with national legal documents and which is based on the US NRC Regulatory Procedures and US standards (ASME, CODE, ANSI). The requirement has been published in the document {open_quotes}Safety of Nuclear Facilities{close_quotes} No. 1/1991 as {open_quotes}Requirements on the Content and Format of Safety Reports and their Supplements{close_quotes} and consists of two parts (1) procedure for obtaining proof of evidence {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} (2) leak detection systems for the pressurized reactor primary circuit. At present some changes concerning both parts of the above document will be introduced. The reasons for this modifications will be presented.

  5. Codes and standards and other guidance cited in regulatory documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nickolaus, J.R.; Bohlander, K.L.

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan Update and Development Program (SRP-UDP), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a listing of industry consensus codes and standards and other government and industry guidance referred to in regulatory documents. The SRP-UDP has been completed and the SRP-Maintenance Program (SRP-MP) is now maintaining this listing. Besides updating previous information, Revision 3 adds approximately 80 citations. This listing identifies the version of the code or standard cited in the regulatory document, the regulatory document, and the current version of the code or standard. It also provides a summary characterization of the nature of the citation. This listing was developed from electronic searches of the Code of Federal Regulations and the NRC`s Bulletins, Information Notices, Circulars, Enforcement Manual, Generic Letters, Inspection Manual, Policy Statements, Regulatory Guides, Standard Technical Specifications and the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800).

  6. Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of BRANDON JULIO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    University of Technology, Sydney

    Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of Capital BRANDON JULIO London Business School YOUNGSUK YOOK Sungkyunkwan University September 2011 ABSTRACT We find that policy uncertainty is an important determinant of fluctuations in cross- border flows of capital. Spefically, we find that fluctuations in policy

  7. Using Storage To Control Uncertainty in Power Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Using Storage To Control Uncertainty in Power Systems Glyn Eggar Department of Actuarial the simplest case 5-10mins · Questions 2 #12;Disclaimer 3 #12;Motivation · Can we use storage to control uncertainty in the electricity network? · What sort of storage are we even talking about here? · How much

  8. Sensitivity, Approximation and Uncertainty in Power System Dynamic Simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Sensitivity, Approximation and Uncertainty in Power System Dynamic Simulation Ian A. Hiskens, Fellow, IEEE Jassim Alseddiqui Student Member, IEEE Abstract-- Parameters of power system models the influence of uncertainty in simulations of power system dynamic behaviour. It is shown that trajectory

  9. RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Uncertainty-aware visualization and proximity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    -aware, geospatial-AR system for real time visualization and proximity analysis. Uncertainties are modeled excavation: a geospatial augmented reality approach Xing Su1 , Sanat Talmaki2 , Hubo Cai3* and Vineet R Kamat an uncertainty-aware, geospatial augmented reality (AR) to visualize and monitor the proximity between invisible

  10. A Genetic Programming Methodology for Strategy Optimization Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    the Missile Countermeasures Optimization (MCO) problem as an instance of a strategy optimization problem; describes various types and degrees of uncertainty that may be introduced into the MCO problem; and develops a new methodology for solving the MCO problem under conditions of uncertainty. The new methodology

  11. Production Optimization; System Identification and Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansen, Tor Arne

    Production Optimization; System Identification and Uncertainty Estimation Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav Slupphaug Tor Arne Johansen 1 Abstract Real-time optimization of oil and gas production requires a production model, which must be fitted to data for accuracy. A certain amount of uncertainty must typically

  12. September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty This appendix deals with the representation. In the section on "Uncertainties," beginning on page P-18, it describes in detail how the regional portfolio of these files is a compressed file, L24X-DW02-P.zip, containing the workbook files that Appendix L uses

  13. Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lovejoy, Shaun

    Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights Daniel Schertzer Department, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Uncertainty and error growth are crosscutting geophysical extremes. The focus is now on time-space geophysical scaling behavior: their multifractality. It is found

  14. A Summary Report Fluctuating energy costs and economic uncertainties worldwide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Club of Minneapolis and St. Paul Energy Uncertainties: Supply Chain Impacts in the Upper MidwestA Summary Report Fluctuating energy costs and economic uncertainties worldwide are disrupting Upper Midwest supply chains. While facing these challenges, participants throughout a supply chain need to con

  15. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta

    2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

  16. Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    1 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Reservoir Simulation Solutions, Inc. SPE 102492 #12;2 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Outline Reservoir Simulation Uncertainty, Using Surrogate Reservoir Model #12;3 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Sources

  17. A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Ken

    A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang. This method often undervalues a mining project since it ignores future price uncertainty and does not allow on metal price. This paper also demonstrates that the "reactive" approach can estimate the mine project

  18. Applying uncertainty quantification to multiphase flow computational fluid dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gel, A.; Garg, R.; Tong, C.; Shahnam, M.; Guenther, C.

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Multiphase computational fluid dynamics plays a major role in design and optimization of fossil fuel based reactors. There is a growing interest in accounting for the influence of uncertainties associated with physical systems to increase the reliability of computational simulation based engineering analysis. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently undertaken an initiative to characterize uncertainties associated with computer simulation of reacting multiphase flows encountered in energy producing systems such as a coal gasifier. The current work presents the preliminary results in applying non-intrusive parametric uncertainty quantification and propagation techniques with NETL's open-source multiphase computational fluid dynamics software MFIX. For this purpose an open-source uncertainty quantification toolkit, PSUADE developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been interfaced with MFIX software. In this study, the sources of uncertainty associated with numerical approximation and model form have been neglected, and only the model input parametric uncertainty with forward propagation has been investigated by constructing a surrogate model based on data-fitted response surface for a multiphase flow demonstration problem. Monte Carlo simulation was employed for forward propagation of the aleatory type input uncertainties. Several insights gained based on the outcome of these simulations are presented such as how inadequate characterization of uncertainties can affect the reliability of the prediction results. Also a global sensitivity study using Sobol' indices was performed to better understand the contribution of input parameters to the variability observed in response variable.

  19. Hyperparameter estimation for uncertainty quantification in mesoscale carbon dioxide inversions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Hyperparameter estimation for uncertainty quantification in mesoscale carbon dioxide inversions-validation (GCV) and x2 test are compared for the first time under a realistic setting in a mesoscale CO2 estimation, uncertainty quantification, mesoscale carbon dioxide inversions 1. Introduction The atmosphere

  20. Ris-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risø-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments The ASSURANCE project Final summary report Kurt risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre

  1. Patient-specific quantification of respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty for step-and-shoot IMRT of lung cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Heng; Park, Peter; Liu, Wei; Matney, Jason; Balter, Peter; Zhang, Xiaodong; Li, Xiaoqiang; Zhu, X. Ronald [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States)] [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States); Liao, Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States); Li, Yupeng [Applied Research, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, California 94304 (United States)] [Applied Research, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, California 94304 (United States)

    2013-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: The objective of this study was to quantify respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty at the planning stage for step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) using an analytical technique.Methods: Ten patients with stage II/III lung cancer who had undergone a planning four-dimensional (4D) computed tomographic scan and step-and-shoot IMRT planning were selected with a mix of motion and tumor size for this retrospective study. A step-and-shoot IMRT plan was generated for each patient. The maximum and minimum doses with respiratory motion were calculated for each plan, and the mean deviation from the 4D dose was calculated, taking delivery time, fractionation, and patient breathing cycle into consideration.Results: For all patients evaluated in this study, the mean deviation from the 4D dose in the planning target volume (PTV) was <2.5%, with a standard deviation <1.2%, and maximum point dose variation from the 4D dose was <6.2% in the PTV assuming delivery dose rate of 200 MU/min and patient breathing cycle of 8 s. The motion-induced dose uncertainty is a function of motion, fractionation, MU (plan modulation), dose rate, and patient breathing cycle.Conclusions: Respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty varies from patient to patient. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the dose uncertainty on a patient-specific basis, which could be useful for plan evaluation and treatment strategy determination for selected patients.

  2. Thermophysical modeling of asteroids from WISE thermal infrared data - Significance of the shape model and the pole orientation uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hanuš, Josef; ?urech, Josef; Alí-Lagoa, Victor

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the analysis of thermal infrared data of asteroids by means of thermophysical models (TPMs) it is a common practice to neglect the uncertainty of the shape model and the rotational state, which are taken as an input for the model. Here, we present a novel method of investigating the importance of the shape model and the pole orientation uncertainties in the thermophysical modeling - the varied shape TPM (VS-TPM). Our method uses optical photometric data to generate various shape models that map the uncertainty in the shape and the rotational state. The TPM procedure is then run for all these shape models. We apply the implementation of the classical TPM as well as our VS-TPM to the convex shape models of several asteroids together with their thermal infrared data acquired by the NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and compare the results. These show that the uncertainties of the shape model and the pole orientation can be very important (e.g., for the determination of the thermal inertia) and...

  3. Measurement uncertainty of adsorption testing of desiccant materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C E; Pesaran, A A

    1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The technique of measurement uncertainty analysis as described in the current ANSI/ASME standard is applied to the testing of desiccant materials in SERI`s Sorption Test Facility. This paper estimates the elemental precision and systematic errors in these tests and propagates them separately to obtain the resulting uncertainty of the test parameters, including relative humidity ({plus_minus}.03) and sorption capacity ({plus_minus}.002 g/g). Errors generated by instrument calibration, data acquisition, and data reduction are considered. Measurement parameters that would improve the uncertainty of the results are identified. Using the uncertainty in the moisture capacity of a desiccant, the design engineer can estimate the uncertainty in performance of a dehumidifier for desiccant cooling systems with confidence. 6 refs., 2 figs., 8 tabs.

  4. ON THE ESTIMATION OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES OF STAR FORMATION HISTORIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dolphin, Andrew E., E-mail: adolphin@raytheon.com [Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ 85734 (United States)

    2012-05-20T23:59:59.000Z

    In most star formation history (SFH) measurements, the reported uncertainties are those due to effects whose sizes can be readily measured: Poisson noise, adopted distance and extinction, and binning choices in the solution itself. However, the largest source of error, systematics in the adopted isochrones, is usually ignored and very rarely explicitly incorporated into the uncertainties. I propose a process by which estimates of the uncertainties due to evolutionary models can be incorporated into the SFH uncertainties. This process relies on application of shifts in temperature and luminosity, the sizes of which must be calibrated for the data being analyzed. While there are inherent limitations, the ability to estimate the effect of systematic errors and include them in the overall uncertainty is significant. The effects of this are most notable in the case of shallow photometry, with which SFH measurements rely on evolved stars.

  5. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

    2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  6. Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INL's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.

  7. Regulatory Assistance, Stakeholder Outreach, and Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Activities in Support of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geerlofs, Simon H.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Hanna, Luke A.

    2011-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This fiscal year 2011 progress report summarizes activities carried out under DOE Water Power Task 2.1.7, Permitting and Planning. Activities under Task 2.1.7 address the concerns of a wide range of stakeholders with an interest in the development of the marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy industry, including regulatory and resource management agencies, tribes, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. Objectives for Task 2.1.7 are the following: • to work with stakeholders to streamline the MHK regulatory permitting process • to work with stakeholders to gather information on needs and priorities for environmental assessment of MHK development • to communicate research findings and directions to the MHK industry and stakeholders • to engage in spatial planning processes in order to further the development of the MHK industry. These objectives are met through three subtasks, each of which is described in this report: • 2.1.7.1—Regulatory Assistance • 2.1.7.2—Stakeholder Outreach • 2.1.7.3—Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning. As MHK industry partners work with the regulatory community and stakeholders to plan, site, permit, and license MHK technologies, they have an interest in a predictable, efficient, and transparent process. Stakeholders and regulators have an interest in processes that result in sustainable use of ocean space with minimal effects to existing ocean users. Both stakeholders and regulators have an interest in avoiding legal challenges by meeting the intent of federal, state, and local laws that govern siting and operation of MHK technologies. The intention of work under Task 2.1.7 is to understand and work to address these varied interests, reduce conflict, identify efficiencies, and ultimately reduce the regulatory costs, time, and potential environmental impacts associated with developing, siting, permitting, and deploying MHK systems.

  8. Clustering and Uncertainty in Perfect Chaos Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sergey A. Kamenshchikov

    2014-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The goal of this investigation was to derive strictly new properties of chaotic systems and their mutual relations. The generalized Fokker-Planck equation with a non stationary diffusion has been derived and used for chaos analysis. An anomalous transport turned out to be natural property of this equation. A nonlinear dispersion of the considered motion allowed to find a principal consequence: a chaotic system with uniform dynamic properties tends to unstable clustering. Small fluctuations of particles density increase by time and form attractors and stochastic islands even if the initial transport properties have uniform distribution. It was shown that an instability of phase trajectories leads to the nonlinear dispersion law and consequently to a space instability. A fixed boundary system was considered, using a standard Fokker-Planck equation. We have derived that such a type of dynamic systems has a discrete diffusive and energy spectra. It was shown that phase space diffusion is the only parameter that defines a dynamic accuracy in this case. The uncertainty relations have been obtained for conjugate phase space variables with account of transport properties. Given results can be used in the area of chaotic systems modelling and turbulence investigation.

  9. Evaluating uncertainty in stochastic simulation models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKay, M.D.

    1998-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper discusses fundamental concepts of uncertainty analysis relevant to both stochastic simulation models and deterministic models. A stochastic simulation model, called a simulation model, is a stochastic mathematical model that incorporates random numbers in the calculation of the model prediction. Queuing models are familiar simulation models in which random numbers are used for sampling interarrival and service times. Another example of simulation models is found in probabilistic risk assessments where atmospheric dispersion submodels are used to calculate movement of material. For these models, randomness comes not from the sampling of times but from the sampling of weather conditions, which are described by a frequency distribution of atmospheric variables like wind speed and direction as a function of height above ground. A common characteristic of simulation models is that single predictions, based on one interarrival time or one weather condition, for example, are not nearly as informative as the probability distribution of possible predictions induced by sampling the simulation variables like time and weather condition. The language of model analysis is often general and vague, with terms having mostly intuitive meaning. The definition and motivations for some of the commonly used terms and phrases offered in this paper lead to an analysis procedure based on prediction variance. In the following mathematical abstraction the authors present a setting for model analysis, relate practical objectives to mathematical terms, and show how two reasonable premises lead to a viable analysis strategy.

  10. Uncertainty quantification of limit-cycle oscillations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beran, Philip S. [Multidisciplinary Technologies Center, Air Vehicles Directorate, AFRL/VASD, Building 146, 2210 Eighth Street, WPAFB, OH 45433 (United States)]. E-mail: philip.beran@wpafb.af.mil; Pettit, Chris L. [United States Naval Academy, 590 Holloway Rd., MS 11-B, Annapolis, MD 21402 (United States)]. E-mail: pettitcl@usna.edu; Millman, Daniel R. [USAF TPS/EDT, 220 South Wolfe Ave, Bldg. 1220, Rm. 131, Edwards AFB, CA 93524-6485 (United States)]. E-mail: daniel.millman@edwards.af.mil

    2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Different computational methodologies have been developed to quantify the uncertain response of a relatively simple aeroelastic system in limit-cycle oscillation, subject to parametric variability. The aeroelastic system is that of a rigid airfoil, supported by pitch and plunge structural coupling, with nonlinearities in the component in pitch. The nonlinearities are adjusted to permit the formation of a either a subcritical or supercritical branch of limit-cycle oscillations. Uncertainties are specified in the cubic coefficient of the torsional spring and in the initial pitch angle of the airfoil. Stochastic projections of the time-domain and cyclic equations governing system response are carried out, leading to both intrusive and non-intrusive computational formulations. Non-intrusive formulations are examined using stochastic projections derived from Wiener expansions involving Haar wavelet and B-spline bases, while Wiener-Hermite expansions of the cyclic equations are employed intrusively and non-intrusively. Application of the B-spline stochastic projection is extended to the treatment of aerodynamic nonlinearities, as modeled through the discrete Euler equations. The methodologies are compared in terms of computational cost, convergence properties, ease of implementation, and potential for application to complex aeroelastic systems.

  11. False Vacuum in the Supersymmetric Mass Varying Neutrinos Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ryo Takahashi; Morimitsu Tanimoto

    2007-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    We present detailed analyses of the vacuum structure of the scalar potential in a supersymmetric Mass Varying Neutrinos model. The observed dark energy density is identified with false vacuum energy and the dark energy scale of order $(10^{-3}eV)^4$ is understood by gravitationally suppressed supersymmetry breaking scale, $F({TeV})^2/M_{Pl}$, in the model. The vacuum expectation values of sneutrinos should be tiny in order that the model works. Some decay processes of superparticles into acceleron and sterile neutrino are also discussed in the model.

  12. False vacuum in the supersymmetric mass varying neutrinos model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Takahashi, Ryo; Tanimoto, Morimitsu [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Niigata University, 950-2181 Niigata (Japan); Department of Physics, Niigata University, 950-2181 Niigata (Japan)

    2008-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We present detailed analyses of the vacuum structure of the scalar potential in a supersymmetric mass varying neutrinos model. The observed dark energy density is identified with false vacuum energy and the dark energy scale of order (10{sup -3} eV){sup 4} is understood by the gravitationally suppressed supersymmetry breaking scale, F(TeV){sup 2}/M{sub Pl}, in the model. The vacuum expectation values of sneutrinos should be tiny in order that the model works. Some decay processes of superparticles into an acceleron and sterile neutrino are also discussed in the model.

  13. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Handling of Beyond Design Basis Events for Nuclear Power Reactors

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presenter: Bill Reckley, Chief, Policy and Support Branch, Japan Lessons-Learned Project Directorate, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  14. A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying Emission Control Technologies A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying Emission Control...

  15. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeMuth, S.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Franklin, A.L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford.

  16. Joint measurability, steering and entropic uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. S. Karthik; A. R. Usha Devi; A. K. Rajagopal

    2014-12-02T23:59:59.000Z

    The notion of incompatibility of measurements in quantum theory is in stark contrast with the corresponding classical perspective, where all physical observables are jointly measurable. It is of interest to examine if the results of two or more measurements in the quantum scenario can be perceived from a classical point of view or they still exhibit non-classical features. Clearly, commuting observables can be measured jointly using projective measurements and their statistical outcomes can be discerned classically. However, such simple minded association of compatibility of measurements with commutativity turns out to be limited in an extended framework, where the usual notion of sharp projective valued measurements of self adjoint observables gets broadened to include unsharp measurements of generalized observables constituting positive operator valued measures (POVM). There is a surge of research activity recently towards gaining new physical insights on the emergence of classical behavior via joint measurability of unsharp observables. Here, we explore the entropic uncertainty relation for a pair of discrete observables (of Alice's system) when an entangled quantum memory of Bob is restricted to record outcomes of jointly measurable POVMs only. Within the joint measurability regime, the sum of entropies associated with Alice's measurement outcomes - conditioned by the results registered at Bob's end - are constrained to obey an entropic steering inequality. In this case, Bob's non-steerability reflects itself as his inability in predicting the outcomes of Alice's pair of non-commuting observables with better precision, even when they share an entangled state. As a further consequence, the quantum advantage envisaged for the construction of security proofs in key distribution is lost, when Bob's measurements are restricted to the joint measurability regime.

  17. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  18. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May/June 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains a bi-monthly update of environmental regulatory activity that is of interest to the Department of Energy. It is provided to DOE operations and contractor staff to assist and support environmental management programs by tracking regulatory developments. Any proposed regulation that raises significant issues for any DOE operation should be reported to the Office of Environmental Guidance (EH-23) as soon as possible so that the Department can make its concerns known to the appropriate regulatory agency. Items of particular interest to EH-23 are indicated by a shading of the RU{number sign}.

  19. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May/June 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains a bi-monthly update of environmental regulatory activity that is of interest to the Department of Energy. It is provided to DOE operations and contractor staff to assist and support environmental management programs by tracking regulatory developments. Any proposed regulation that raises significant issues for any DOE operation should be reported to the Office of Environmental Guidance (EH-23) as soon as possible so that the Department can make its concerns known to the appropriate regulatory agency. Items of particular interest to EH-23 are indicated by a shading of the RU{number_sign}.

  20. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  1. Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The NNPDF Collaboration; Richard D. Ball; Luigi Del Debbio; Stefano Forte; Alberto Guffanti; Jose I. Latorre; Juan Rojo; Maria Ubiali

    2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.

  2. Systems and methods of varying charged particle beam spot size

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chen, Yu-Jiuan

    2014-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods and devices enable shaping of a charged particle beam. A modified dielectric wall accelerator includes a high gradient lens section and a main section. The high gradient lens section can be dynamically adjusted to establish the desired electric fields to minimize undesirable transverse defocusing fields at the entrance to the dielectric wall accelerator. Once a baseline setting with desirable output beam characteristic is established, the output beam can be dynamically modified to vary the output beam characteristics. The output beam can be modified by slightly adjusting the electric fields established across different sections of the modified dielectric wall accelerator. Additional control over the shape of the output beam can be excreted by introducing intentional timing de-synchronization offsets and producing an injected beam that is not fully matched to the entrance of the modified dielectric accelerator.

  3. Local non-Gaussianity from rapidly varying sound speeds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emery, Jon; Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Wands, David, E-mail: jon.emery@port.ac.uk, E-mail: gianmassimo.tasinato@port.ac.uk, E-mail: david.wands@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the effect of non-trivial sound speeds on local-type non-Gaussianity during multiple-field inflation. To this end, we consider a multiple-DBI model and use the ?N formalism to track the super-horizon evolution of perturbations. By adopting a sum separable Hubble parameter we derive analytic expressions for the relevant quantities in the two-field case, valid beyond slow variation. We find that non-trivial sound speeds can, in principle, curve the trajectory in such a way that significant local-type non-Gaussianity is produced. Deviations from slow variation, such as rapidly varying sound speeds, enhance this effect. To illustrate our results we consider two-field inflation in the tip regions of two warped throats and find large local-type non-Gaussianity produced towards the end of the inflationary process.

  4. $f(T)$ Theories and Varying Fine Structure Constant

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wei, Hao; Qi, Hao-Yu

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In analogy to $f(R)$ theory, recently $f(T)$ theory has been proposed to drive the current accelerated expansion without invoking dark energy. In the literature, the observational constraints on $f(T)$ theories were obtained mainly by using the cosmological data, such as type Ia supernovae (SNIa), baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB). In this work, we instead try to constrain $f(T)$ theories with the varying fine structure "constant", $\\alpha\\equiv e^2/\\hbar c$. We find that the constraints on $f(T)$ theories from the observational $\\Delta\\alpha/\\alpha$ data are very severe. In fact, they make $f(T)$ theories almost indistinguishable from $\\Lambda$CDM model.

  5. Scattering in a varying mass PT symmetric double heterojunction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anjana Sinha; R. Roychoudhury

    2013-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

    We observe that the reflection and transmission coefficients of a particle within a double, PT symmetric heterojunction with spatially varying mass, show interesting features, depending on the degree of non Hermiticity, although there is no spontaneous breakdown of PT symmetry. The potential profile in the intermediate layer is considered such that it has a non vanishing imaginary part near the heterojunctions. Exact analytical solutions for the wave function are obtained, and the reflection and transmission coefficients are plotted as a function of energy, for both left as well as right incidence. As expected, the spatial dependence on mass changes the nature of the scattering solutions within the heterojunctions, and the space-time (PT) symmetry is responsible for the left-right asymmetry in the reflection and transmission coefficients. However, the non vanishing imaginary component of the potential near the heterojunctions gives new and interesting results.

  6. Neutron Stars in a Varying Speed of Light Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. W. Whinnett

    2003-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    We study neutron stars in a varying speed of light (VSL) theory of gravity in which the local speed of light depends upon the value of a scalar field $\\phi$. We find that the masses and radii of the stars are strongly dependent on the strength of the coupling between $\\phi$ and the matter field and that for certain choices of coupling parameters, the maximum neutron star mass can be arbitrarily small. We also discuss the phenomenon of cosmological evolution of VSL stars (analogous to the gravitational evolution in scalar-tensor theories) and we derive a relation showing how the fractional change in the energy of a star is related to the change in the cosmological value of the scalar field.

  7. Inter- and Intrafractional Positional Uncertainties in Pediatric Radiotherapy Patients With Brain and Head and Neck Tumors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beltran, Chris, E-mail: chris.beltran@stjude.or [Department of Radiological Sciences, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN (United States); Krasin, Matthew J.; Merchant, Thomas E. [Department of Radiological Sciences, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN (United States)

    2011-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: To estimate radiation therapy planning margins based on inter- and intrafractional uncertainty for pediatric brain and head and neck tumor patients at different imaging frequencies. Methods: Pediatric patients with brain (n = 83) and head and neck (n = 17) tumors (median age = 7.2 years) were enrolled on an internal review board-approved localization protocol and stratified according to treatment position and use of anesthesia. Megavoltage cone-beam CT (CBCT) was performed before each treatment and after every other treatment. The pretreatment offsets were used to calculate the interfractional setup uncertainty (SU), and posttreatment offsets were used to calculate the intrafractional residual uncertainty (RU). The SU and RU are the patient-related components of the setup margin (SM), which is part of the planning target volume (PTV). SU data was used to simulate four intervention strategies using different imaging frequencies and thresholds. Results: The SM based on all patients treated on this study was 2.1 mm (SU = 0.9 mm, RU = 1.9 mm) and varied according to treatment position (supine = 1.8 mm, prone = 2.6 mm) and use of anesthesia (with = 1.7 mm, without = 2.5 mm) because of differences in the RU. The average SU for a 2-mm threshold based on no imaging, once per week imaging, initial five images, and daily imaging was 3.6, 2.1, 2.2, and 0.9 mm, respectively. Conclusion: On the basis of this study, the SM component of the PTV may be reduced to 2 mm for daily CBCT compared with 3.5 mm for weekly CBCT. Considering patients who undergo daily pretreatment CBCT, the SM is larger for those treated in the prone position or smaller for those treated under anesthesia because of differences in the RU.

  8. Spall behavior of cast iron with varying microstructures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plume, Gifford; Rousseau, Carl-Ernst, E-mail: rousseau@uri.edu [Mechanical Engineering, University of Rhode Island, 92 Upper College Rd., Kingston, Rhode Island 02881 (United States)

    2014-07-21T23:59:59.000Z

    The spall strength of cast iron with varying microstructures has been investigated using plate impact at moderate speed. Stress history measurements were made with manganin stress gauges embedded between the back face of the specimen and a low impedance polycarbonate backing. Five separate cast irons were tested. Four of these consisted of gray cast iron with graphite in flake form, with three classified as Type VII A2 and the fourth containing a bimodal distribution of Types VII A4 and VII D8. The fifth casting consisted of ductile cast iron with graphite in nodular form, classified as Type I, size class 5. The spall strength for the Type VII A2 gray cast irons varied between 40 and 370?MPa, and that of the additional gray cast iron, between 410 and 490?MPa. The spall strength of the ductile cast iron fell within the range of 0.94–1.2?GPa. It is shown that the spall strength is linked to the damage level at the spall plane, where an increased level of tensile stress is required to generate higher levels of damage. Post mortem analysis was performed on the recovered samples, revealing the graphite phase to be the primary factor governing the spall fracture of cast irons, where crack nucleation is directly correlated to the debonding of graphite from the metal matrix. The average length of graphite found within a casting is linked to the material's strength, where strength increases as a function of decreasing length. The morphology and mean free path of graphite precipitates further govern the subsequent coalescence of initiated cracks to form a complete fracture plane. In cases where graphite spacing is large, increased energy level is required to complete the fracture process. A secondary factor governing the spall fracture of cast irons has also been linked to the microstructure of the metal matrix, with pearlite yielding higher spall strengths than free ferrite.

  9. Mixed lipid bilayers with locally varying spontaneous curvature and bending

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillaume Gueguen; Nicolas Destainville; Manoel Manghi

    2014-08-27T23:59:59.000Z

    A model of lipid bilayers made of a mixture of two lipids with different average compositions on both leaflets, is developed. A Landau hamiltonian describing the lipid-lipid interactions on each leaflet, with two lipidic fields $\\psi_1$ and $\\psi_2$, is coupled to a Helfrich one, accounting for the membrane elasticity, via both a local spontaneous curvature, which varies as $C_0+C_1(\\psi_1-\\psi_2)/2$, and a bending modulus equal to $\\kappa_0+\\kappa_1(\\psi_1+\\psi_2)/2$. This model allows us to define curved patches as membrane domains where the asymmetry in composition, $\\psi_1-\\psi_2$, is large, and thick and stiff patches where $\\psi_1+\\psi_2$ is large. These thick patches are good candidates for being lipidic rafts, as observed in cell membranes, which are composed primarily of saturated lipids forming a liquid-ordered domain and are known to be thick and flat nano-domains. The lipid-lipid structure factors and correlation functions are computed for globally spherical membranes and planar ones. Phase diagrams are established, within a Gaussian approximation, showing the occurrence of two types of Structure Disordered phases, with correlations between either curved or thick patches, and an Ordered phase, corresponding to the divergence of the structure factor at a finite wave vector. The varying bending modulus plays a central role for curved membranes, where the driving force $\\kappa_1C_0^2$ is balanced by the line tension, to form raft domains of size ranging from 10 to 100~nm. For planar membranes, raft domains emerge via the cross-correlation with curved domains. A global picture emerges from curvature-induced mechanisms, described in the literature for planar membranes, to coupled curvature- and bending-induced mechanisms in curved membranes forming a closed vesicle.

  10. allosteric regulatory cavity: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    viII discuss important developments in federal and state regulatory arenas and their impacts on purchasing options. Among the issues discussed viII be: 1... Watkins, G. 468...

  11. Cross-regulation and interaction between eukaryotic gene regulatory processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spies, Noah (Noah Walter Benjamin)

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Regulation of genes is fundamental to all living processes and can be exerted at many sequential steps. We studied several eukaryotic gene regulatory mechanisms with an emphasis on understanding the interplay between ...

  12. alters fyn regulatory: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    human genome where many TFsRegulatory Analysis for Exploring Human Disease Progression Dustin T. Holloway1 , Mark Kon2 have been built and tested for 153 human TFs. These...

  13. Lisa C. Tracy Acting Director Division of Natural Gas Regulatory...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    November 17, 2014 Lisa C. Tracy Acting Director Division of Natural Gas Regulatory Activities U.S. Department of Energy (FE-34) Office of Oil and Gas Global Security Office of...

  14. SEC Confidential Treatment Orders: Balancing Competing Regulatory Objectives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Anne Margaret

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines how the Securities and Exchange Commission balances competing regulatory objectives in its decisions to approve requests to withhold proprietary information from firms' financial reports. The confidential treatment process...

  15. Inferring regulatory networks from multiple sources of genomic data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yeang, Chen-Hsiang, 1969-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    (cont.) algorithm to identify the regulatory models from protein-DNA binding and gene expression data. These models to a large extent agree with the knowledge of gene regulation pertaining to the corresponding regulators. ...

  16. NGNP Project Regulatory Gap Analysis for Modular HTGRs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wayne Moe

    2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project Regulatory Gap Analysis (RGA) for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGR) was conducted to evaluate existing regulatory requirements and guidance against the design characteristics specific to a generic modular HTGR. This final report presents results and identifies regulatory gaps concerning current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing requirements that apply to the modular HTGR design concept. This report contains appendices that highlight important HTGR licensing issues that were found during the RGA study. The information contained in this report will be used to further efforts in reconciling HTGR-related gaps in the NRC licensing structure, which has to date largely focused on light water reactor technology.

  17. CUTTING EDGE Cutting Edge: Treatment of Complement Regulatory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ponder, Katherine P.

    CUTTING EDGE IMMUNOLOGY THE OF JOURNAL Cutting Edge: Treatment of Complement Regulatory Protein attachment of C regulators such as the decay-accelerating factor (DAF) (11) and C receptor 1-related gene

  18. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Under Title I of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is required to publish a list identifying each electric utility...

  19. Bacterial regulatory networks are extremely flexible in evolution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Babu, M. Madan

    are well conserved in evolution. From our comparative analysis, it is possible to infer evolves as it would enable us to study the molecular evolutionary ecology of regulatory diversifica- tion sequence data and complete genomes are a

  20. Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration -Paula Reimer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengun, Mehmet Haluk

    naked body'. Robert Boyle 1663 Includes ­ Thermoluminescence (TL), Optically stimulated luminescenceSUPRA-net: Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration - Paula Tephrochronology ­ David Lowe U series dating ­ David Richards* Combining multiple dating techniques ­ Andrew

  1. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knio, Omar M

    2014-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This is a collaborative proposal that aims at developing new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty. The approach is based on combining methods of computational singular perturbation (CSP) and probabilistic uncertainty quantification. In deterministic settings, CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduced-dimensionality “slow manifolds” on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty raises fundamentally new issues, particularly concerning its impact on the topology of slow manifolds, and means to represent and quantify associated variability. To address these challenges, this project uses polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models, and to analyze them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Specific objectives include (1) developing effective algorithms that can be used to illuminate fundamental and unexplored connections among model reduction, multiscale behavior, and uncertainty, and (2) demonstrating the performance of these algorithms through applications to model problems.

  2. Essays on Voluntary Contribution with Private Information and Threshold Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peng, Hui-Chun

    2014-07-08T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation concerns individual voluntary contributions in the subscription game with three important model considerations: private information on public good valuations, threshold uncertainty and the timing of the contribution — simultaneous...

  3. Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...

  4. Robust decision-making with model uncertainty in aerospace systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertuccelli, Luca Francesco, 1981-

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Actual performance of sequential decision-making problems can be extremely sensitive to errors in the models, and this research addressed the role of robustness in coping with this uncertainty. The first part of this thesis ...

  5. Chance Constrained RRT for Probabilistic Robustness to Environmental Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luders, Brandon Douglas

    For motion planning problems involving many or unbounded forms of uncertainty, it may not be possible to identify a path guaranteed to be feasible, requiring consideration of the trade-off between planner conservatism and ...

  6. Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.

    In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...

  7. Control of systems subject to uncertainty and constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Villota Cerna, Elizabeth Roxana

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    do not alter small signal performance. Importantly, these two remedial control methodologies must in¬corporate model uncertainty into their design to be considered reliable in practice. In this dissertation, shared principles of design...

  8. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of2007) and the 2007 Real Options Conference in Berkeley, CA,distributed generation, real options JEL Codes: D81, Q40

  9. An uncertainty principle, Wegner estimates and localization near fluctuation boundaries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anne Boutet de Monvel; Daniel Lenz; Peter Stollmann

    2009-05-18T23:59:59.000Z

    We prove a simple uncertainty principle and show that it can be applied to prove Wegner estimates near fluctuation boundaries. This gives new classes of models for which localization at low energies can be proven.

  10. Determination of uncertainty in parameters extracted from single spectroscopic measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bechtel, Kate L.

    The ability to quantify uncertainty in information extracted from spectroscopic measurements is important in numerous fields. The traditional approach of repetitive measurements may be impractical or impossible in some ...

  11. Creating value from uncertainty : a study of ocean transportation contracting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pálsson, Sigurjón

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    How can financial tools like real options and hedging mitigate and create value from uncertainty in transportation? This paper describes these concepts and identifies research on them that has relevance to transportation. ...

  12. Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

  13. Informatively optimal levels of confidence for measurement uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David

    2011-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

    expanded uncertainty of measurement as a historical artifact, and not as a strictly substantiated value. .... where ?o(?) = 1.5 is true for the most uncertain classification situation (50% confidence) about allowing or ..... as a power of exponent (n).

  14. Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    (cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

  15. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reinert, Joshua M

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...

  16. HANDLING UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCTION ACTIVITY CONTROL USING PROACTIVE SIMULATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    HANDLING UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCTION ACTIVITY CONTROL USING PROACTIVE SIMULATION Olivier CARDIN, Production Control, Manufacturing Systems, Proactive, Real-time. 1. INTRODUCTION In today's complex of a product. Real-word planning and scheduling problems are generally complex, constrained and multi

  17. Some methods of estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Milan Batista

    2011-07-20T23:59:59.000Z

    In the paper four methods for estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction are discussed: total differential method, extreme values method, Gauss statistical method, and Monte Carlo simulation method. The methods are described and the program solutions are given.

  18. Utility & Regulatory Factors Affecting Cogeneration & Independent Power Plant Design & Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Felak, R. P.

    UTILITY & REGULATORY FACTORS AFFECTiNG COGENERATION & INDEPENDENT POWER PLANT DESIGN & OPERATION Richard P. Felak General Electric Company Schenectady, New York ABSTRACT In specifying a cogeneration or independent power plant, the owner... should be especially aware of the influences which electric utilities and regulatory bodies will have on key parameters such as size, efficiency, design. reliability/ availabilitY, operating capabilities and modes, etc. This paper will note examples...

  19. Panel Data Analysis of Regulatory Factors Shaping Environmental Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Earnhart, Dietrich H.

    2006-03-13T23:59:59.000Z

    and the influence of regulatory factors in general, this paper examines a specific demonstration of environmental perfor- mance: biological oxygen demand (BOD) wastewater dis- charges by large (“major”) municipal wastewater treatment plants in Kansas during... example, limit levels). To analyze the effects of these regulatory factors on envi- ronmental performance, this particular empirical analysis examines the wastewater discharges by large municipal wastewater treatment facilities in the state of Kansas...

  20. Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty AfzalEnergy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty ?DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected

  1. Modeling Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaic Generation: A Hidden State Spatial Statistical Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Callaway, Duncan S; Tabone, Michaelangelo D

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    AND UNCERTAINTY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION [9] M. Milligan,for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on advancedand uncertainty in solar photovoltaic generation at multiple

  2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for long-running computer codes : a critical review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langewisch, Dustin R

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis presents a critical review of existing methods for performing probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for complex, computationally expensive simulation models. Uncertainty analysis (UA) methods ...

  3. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Clure, Patrick [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nelson, Ralph A [IDAHO NATIONAL LAB

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost saving purposes by showing further testing wold not enhance the quality of the validation of predictive tools. The proposed methodology is at a conceptual level. When matured and if considered favorably by the stakeholders, it could serve as a new framework for the next generation of the best estimate plus uncertainty licensing methodology that USNRC developed previously. In order to come to that level of maturity it is necessary to communicate the methodology to scientific, design and regulatory stakeholders for discussion and debates. This paper is the first step to establish this communication.

  4. Quantum Groups, Gravity, and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michele Maggiore

    1993-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the relationship between the generalized uncertainty principle in quantum gravity and the quantum deformation of the Poincar\\'e algebra. We find that a deformed Newton-Wigner position operator and the generators of spatial translations and rotations of the deformed Poincar\\'e algebra obey a deformed Heisenberg algebra from which the generalized uncertainty principle follows. The result indicates that in the $\\kappa$-deformed Poincar\\'e algebra a minimal observable length emerges naturally.

  5. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Djurcic, Zelimir; Detwiler, Jason A.; Piepke, Andreas; Foster Jr., Vince R.; Miller, Lester; Gratta, Giorgio

    2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in {bar {nu}}{sub e} detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties, and their relevance to reactor {bar {nu}}{sub e} experiments.

  6. An efficient method for treating uncertainties in structural dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Bing

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    AN EFFICIENT METHOD FOR TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS A Thesis by BING WANG Submitted to the Oflice of Graduate Studies of Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE...) Alan . Pa zolo (Member) ames . . Yao (Head of D artment) December 1992 ABSTRACT An Efficient Method for Treating Uncertainties in Structural Dynamics. (December 1992) Bing Wang, B. S. , Tsinghua University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr...

  7. Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K. R.; Levine, A.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit combines the former Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap, National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Database, and other resources into a Web-based tool that gives the regulatory and utility-scale geothermal developer communities rapid and easy access to permitting information. RAPID currently comprises five tools - Permitting Atlas, Regulatory Roadmap, Resource Library, NEPA Database, and Best Practices. A beta release of an additional tool, the Permitting Wizard, is scheduled for late 2014. Because of the huge amount of information involved, RAPID was developed in a wiki platform to allow industry and regulatory agencies to maintain the content in the future so that it continues to provide relevant and accurate information to users. In 2014, the content was expanded to include regulatory requirements for utility-scale solar and bulk transmission development projects. Going forward, development of the RAPID Toolkit will focus on expanding the capabilities of current tools, developing additional tools, including additional technologies, and continuing to increase stakeholder involvement.

  8. Regulatory and extra-regulatory testing to demonstrate radioactive material packaging safety

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ammerman, D.J.

    1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Packages for the transportation of radioactive material must meet performance criteria to assure safety and environmental protection. The stringency of the performance criteria is based on the degree of hazard of the material being transported. Type B packages are used for transporting large quantities of radioisotopes (in terms of A{sub 2} quantities). These packages have the most stringent performance criteria. Material with less than an A{sub 2} quantity are transported in Type A packages. These packages have less stringent performance criteria. Transportation of LSA and SCO materials must be in {open_quotes}strong-tight{close_quotes} packages. The performance requirements for the latter packages are even less stringent. All of these package types provide a high level of safety for the material being transported. In this paper, regulatory tests that are used to demonstrate this safety will be described. The responses of various packages to these tests will be shown. In addition, the response of packages to extra-regulatory tests will be discussed. The results of these tests will be used to demonstrate the high level of safety provided to workers, the public, and the environment by packages used for the transportation of radioactive material.

  9. Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

    2014-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

  10. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  11. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  12. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Massimo Salvatores; Giuseppe Palmiotti; G. Aliberti

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The role of uncertainty quantification has been stressed and has been the object of several assessments in the past (see e.g. References 1 and 2 among many others), in particular in relation to design requirements for safety assessments, design margins definition and optimization, both for the reactor core and for the associated fuel cycles. The use of integral experiments has been advocated since many years, and recently re-assessed in order to reduce uncertainties and to define new reduced ''a-posteriori'' uncertainties. While uncertainty quantification in the case of existing power plants benefits from a large data base of operating reactor experimental results, innovative reactor systems (reactor and associated fuel cycles) should rely on limited power reactor experiment data bases and on a number of past integral experiments that should be shown to be representative enough. Moreover, in some cases, in particular related to innovative fuel cycle performance and feasibility assessment, nuclear data uncertainties are the only available information. Uncertainty quantification in that case becomes a tool for detecting potential show stoppers associated to specfic fuel cycle strategies, besides the challenges related to fuel properties, fuel processing chemistry and material performance issues.

  13. Regulatory Science: Principles & Practices in Food Systems SCSC 634 | Fall 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    will possess a practical knowledge of how to apply risk analysis to hazards in regulated products. The course: · Emerging Field of Regulatory Science · Regulatory Policy · Role of Risk Analysis in Regulatory Science - Perform a Quantitative Risk Assessment #12;Regulatory Science: Principles & Practices in Food Systems SCSC

  14. OVERVIEW OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT APPROACHES: CEMENTITIOUS BARRIERS PARTNERSHIP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langton, C.; Burns, H.

    2009-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Engineered barriers including cementitious barriers are used at sites disposing or contaminated with low-level radioactive waste to enhance performance of the natural environment with respect to controlling the potential spread of contaminants. Drivers for using cementitious barriers include: high radionuclide inventory, radionuclide characteristics (e.g., long half-live, high mobility due to chemical form/speciation, waste matrix properties, shallow water table, and humid climate that provides water for leaching the waste). This document comprises the first in a series of reports being prepared for the Cementitious Barriers Partnership. The document is divided into two parts which provide a summary of: (1) existing experience in the assessment of performance of cementitious materials used for radioactive waste management and disposal and (2) sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approaches that have been applied for assessments. Each chapter is organized into five parts: Introduction, Regulatory Considerations, Specific Examples, Summary of Modeling Approaches and Conclusions and Needs. The objective of the report is to provide perspective on the state of the practice for conducting assessments for facilities involving cementitious barriers and to identify opportunities for improvements to the existing approaches. Examples are provided in two contexts: (1) performance assessments conducted for waste disposal facilities and (2) performance assessment-like analyses (e.g., risk assessments) conducted under other regulatory regimes. The introductory sections of each section provide a perspective on the purpose of performance assessments and different roles of cementitious materials for radioactive waste management. Significant experience with assessments of cementitious materials associated with radioactive waste disposal concepts exists in the US Department of Energy Complex and the commercial nuclear sector. Recently, the desire to close legacy facilities has created a need to assess the behavior of cementitious materials for applications in environmental remediation and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) applications. The ability to assess the use and benefits of cementitious materials for these applications can significantly affect decisions related to cleanup activities. For example the need for costly remedial actions may not be necessary if existing or new cementitious barriers were adequately represented. The sections dealing with regulatory considerations include summaries of the different regulations that are relevant for various applications involving cementitious materials. A summary of regulatory guidance and/or policies pertaining to performance assessment of cementitious materials and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses is also provided in the following chapters. Numerous examples of specific applications are provided in each report. The examples are organized into traditional waste disposal applications (performance assessments), applications related to environmental remediation and D&D, and reactor and spent fuel related assessments. Sections that discuss specific facilities or sites contain: (1) descriptions of the role of the cementitious barriers or sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, (2) parameter assumptions and conceptual models, and (3) a relative discussion of the significance in the context of the assessment. Examples from both the U.S. Department of Energy Sites and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission are provided to illustrate the variety of applications and approaches that have been used. In many cases, minimal credit was taken for cementitious barriers. However, in some of those cases, benefits of being able to take credit for barriers were identified. The examples included: (1) disposal facilities (vaults, trenches, tank closures, cementitious waste forms and containers, etc.), (2) environmental remediation (old disposal facilities), (3) reactor and large structure decommissioning, and (4) spent fuel pools. These examples were selected to provide a perspective on the various ne

  15. The Uncertainties in the 22Ne + alpha-capture Reaction Rates and the Production of the Heavy Magnesium Isotopes in Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars of Intermediate Mass

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Karakas; M. Lugaro; M. Wiescher; J. Goerres; C. Ugalde

    2006-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    We present new rates for the 22Ne(alpha, n)25Mg and 22Ne(alpha,gamma)26Mg reactions, with uncertainties that have been considerably reduced compared to previous estimates, and we study how these new rates affect the production of the heavy magnesium isotopes in models of intermediate mass Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars of different initial compositions. All the models have deep third dredge-up, hot bottom burning and mass loss. Calculations have been performed using the two most commonly used estimates of the 22Ne + alpha rates as well as the new recommended rates, and with combinations of their upper and lower limits. The main result of the present study is that with the new rates, uncertainties on the production of isotopes from Mg to P coming from the 22Ne + alpha-capture rates have been considerably reduced. We have therefore removed one of the important sources of uncertainty to effect models of AGB stars. We have studied the effects of varying the mass-loss rate on nucleosynthesis and discuss other uncertainties related to the physics employed in the computation of stellar structure, such as the modeling of convection, the inclusion of a partial mixing zone and the definition of convective borders. These uncertainties are found to be much larger than those coming from 22Ne + alpha-capture rates, when using our new estimates. Much effort is needed to improve the situation for AGB models.

  16. River meander modeling and confronting uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Posner, Ari J. (University of Arizona Tucson, AZ)

    2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the meandering phenomenon as it occurs in media throughout terrestrial, glacial, atmospheric, and aquatic environments. Analysis of the minimum energy principle, along with theories of Coriolis forces (and random walks to explain the meandering phenomenon) found that these theories apply at different temporal and spatial scales. Coriolis forces might induce topological changes resulting in meandering planforms. The minimum energy principle might explain how these forces combine to limit the sinuosity to depth and width ratios that are common throughout various media. The study then compares the first order analytical solutions for flow field by Ikeda, et al. (1981) and Johannesson and Parker (1989b). Ikeda's et al. linear bank erosion model was implemented to predict the rate of bank erosion in which the bank erosion coefficient is treated as a stochastic variable that varies with physical properties of the bank (e.g., cohesiveness, stratigraphy, or vegetation density). The developed model was used to predict the evolution of meandering planforms. Then, the modeling results were analyzed and compared to the observed data. Since the migration of a meandering channel consists of downstream translation, lateral expansion, and downstream or upstream rotations several measures are formulated in order to determine which of the resulting planforms is closest to the experimental measured one. Results from the deterministic model highly depend on the calibrated erosion coefficient. Since field measurements are always limited, the stochastic model yielded more realistic predictions of meandering planform evolutions. Due to the random nature of bank erosion coefficient, the meandering planform evolution is a stochastic process that can only be accurately predicted by a stochastic model.

  17. Fractal dimensions of the galaxy distribution varying by steps?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marie-Noelle Celerier; Reuben Thieberger

    2005-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The structure of the large scale distribution of the galaxies have been widely studied since the publication of the first catalogs. Since large redshift samples are available, their analyses seem to show fractal correlations up to the observational limits. The value of the fractal dimension(s) calculated by different authors have become the object of a large debate, as have been the value of the expected transition from fractality to a possible large scale homogeneity. Moreover, some authors have proposed that different scaling regimes might be discerned at different lenght scales. To go further on into this issue, we have applied the correlation integral method to the wider sample currently available. We therefore obtain a fractal dimension of the galaxy distribution which seems to vary by steps whose width might be related to the organization hierarchy observed for the galaxies. This result could explain some of the previous results obtained by other authors from the analyses of less complete catalogs and maybe reconcile their apparent discrepancy. However, the method applied here needs to be further checked, since it produces odd fluctuations at each transition scale, which need to be thoroughly explained.

  18. Observational constraints on holographic dark energy with varying gravitational constant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Jianbo; Xu, Lixin [Institute of Theoretical Physics, School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024 (China); Saridakis, Emmanuel N. [College of Mathematics and Physics, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Setare, M.R., E-mail: lvjianbo819@163.com, E-mail: msaridak@phys.uoa.gr, E-mail: rezakord@ipm.ir, E-mail: lxxu@dlut.edu.cn [Department of Science of Bijar, University of Kurdistan, Bijar (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We use observational data from Type Ia Supernovae (SN), Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and observational Hubble data (OHD), and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to constrain the cosmological scenario of holographic dark energy with varying gravitational constant. We consider both flat and non-flat background geometry, and we present the corresponding constraints and contour-plots of the model parameters. We conclude that the scenario is compatible with observations. In 1? we find ?{sub ?0} = 0.72{sup +0.03}{sub ?0.03}, ?{sub k0} = ?0.0013{sup +0.0130}{sub ?0.0040}, c = 0.80{sup +0.19}{sub ?0.14} and ?{sub G}?G'/G = ?0.0025{sup +0.0080}{sub ?0.0050}, while for the present value of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter we obtain w{sub 0} = ?1.04{sup +0.15}{sub ?0.20}.

  19. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO] [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  20. Understanding Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with the Electric Power System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mills, Andrew

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with themodels and datasets. Photovoltaics fall under the broader

  1. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  2. Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, J.; McNelis, D. [Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (United States); Yim, M.S. [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

  3. Evolutionary conservation of regulatory elements in vertebrate HOX gene clusters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Santini, Simona; Boore, Jeffrey L.; Meyer, Axel

    2003-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Due to their high degree of conservation, comparisons of DNA sequences among evolutionarily distantly-related genomes permit to identify functional regions in noncoding DNA. Hox genes are optimal candidate sequences for comparative genome analyses, because they are extremely conserved in vertebrates and occur in clusters. We aligned (Pipmaker) the nucleotide sequences of HoxA clusters of tilapia, pufferfish, striped bass, zebrafish, horn shark, human and mouse (over 500 million years of evolutionary distance). We identified several highly conserved intergenic sequences, likely to be important in gene regulation. Only a few of these putative regulatory elements have been previously described as being involved in the regulation of Hox genes, while several others are new elements that might have regulatory functions. The majority of these newly identified putative regulatory elements contain short fragments that are almost completely conserved and are identical to known binding sites for regulatory proteins (Transfac). The conserved intergenic regions located between the most rostrally expressed genes in the developing embryo are longer and better retained through evolution. We document that presumed regulatory sequences are retained differentially in either A or A clusters resulting from a genome duplication in the fish lineage. This observation supports both the hypothesis that the conserved elements are involved in gene regulation and the Duplication-Deletion-Complementation model.

  4. Regulatory cross-cutting topics for fuel cycle facilities.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Brown, Jason; Goldmann, Andrew Scott; Louie, David

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report overviews crosscutting regulatory topics for nuclear fuel cycle facilities for use in the Fuel Cycle Research&Development Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening study. In particular, the regulatory infrastructure and analysis capability is assessed for the following topical areas:Fire Regulations (i.e., how applicable are current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and/or International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) fire regulations to advance fuel cycle facilities)Consequence Assessment (i.e., how applicable are current radionuclide transportation tools to support risk-informed regulations and Level 2 and/or 3 PRA) While not addressed in detail, the following regulatory topic is also discussed:Integrated Security, Safeguard and Safety Requirement (i.e., how applicable are current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations to future fuel cycle facilities which will likely be required to balance the sometimes conflicting Material Accountability, Security, and Safety requirements.)

  5. Environmental Health Policy Decisions: The Role of Uncertainty in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    are informed by the link between economic and quantitative risk analysis on the one hand, and the critical role in quantitative risk assessments and associated regulatory outcomes. In representing a broad spec- trum implications for those health professionals, particu- larly in the area of quantitative risk assessment, whose

  6. LDRD Final Report: Capabilities for Uncertainty in Predictive Science.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phipps, Eric T.; Eldred, Michael S.; Salinger, Andrew G.; Webster, Clayton G.

    2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Predictive simulation of systems comprised of numerous interconnected, tightly coupled com-ponents promises to help solve many problems of scientific and national interest. Howeverpredictive simulation of such systems is extremely challenging due to the coupling of adiverse set of physical and biological length and time scales. This report investigates un-certainty quantification methods for such systems that attempt to exploit their structure togain computational efficiency. The traditional layering of uncertainty quantification aroundnonlinear solution processes is inverted to allow for heterogeneous uncertainty quantificationmethods to be applied to each component in a coupled system. Moreover this approachallows stochastic dimension reduction techniques to be applied at each coupling interface.The mathematical feasibility of these ideas is investigated in this report, and mathematicalformulations for the resulting stochastically coupled nonlinear systems are developed.3

  7. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  8. Regulatory requirements affecting disposal of asbestos-containing waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are undergoing decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities. The performance of these activities may generate asbestos-containing waste because asbestos was formerly used in many building materials, including floor tile, sealants, plastics, cement pipe, cement sheets, insulating boards, and insulating cements. The regulatory requirements governing the disposal of these wastes depend on: (1) the percentage of asbestos in the waste and whether the waste is friable (easily crumbled or pulverized); (2) other physical and chemical characteristics of the waste; and (3) the State in which the waste is generated. This Information Brief provides an overview of the environment regulatory requirements affecting disposal of asbestos-containing waste. It does not address regulatory requirements applicable to worker protection promulgated under the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHAct), the Mining Safety and Health Act (MSHA), or the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA).

  9. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest 1992 edition. Volume 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olive, K [ed.] [ed.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest provides a summary of information about the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), NRC's regulatory responsibilities, the activities NRC licenses, and general information on domestic and worldwide nuclear energy. This digest is a compilation of nuclear- and NRC-related data and is designed to provide a quick reference to major facts about the agency and industry it regulates. In general, the data cover 1975 through 1991, with exceptions noted. Information on generating capacity and average capacity factor for operating US commercial nuclear power reactors is obtained from monthly operating reports that are submitted directly to the NRC by the licensee. This information is reviewed by the NRC for consistency only and no independent validation and/or verification is performed.

  10. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest 1994 edition. Volume 6

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stadler, L.

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest (digest) provides a summary of information about the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), NRCs regulatory responsibility the activities NRC licenses, and general information on domestic and worldwide nuclear energy. The digest, published annually, is a compilation of nuclear-and NRC-related data and is designed to provide a quick reference to major facts about the agency and the industry it regulates. In general, the data cover 1975 through 1993, with exceptions noted. Information on generating capacity and average capacity factor for operating US commercial nuclear power reactors is obtained from monthly operating reports that are submitted directly to the NRC by the information is reviewed by the NRC for consistency only and no independent validation and/or verification is performed.

  11. Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The mean'' value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility's net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

  12. Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The ``mean`` value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility`s net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

  13. Instrument uncertainty effect on calculation of absolute humidity using dewpoint, wet-bulb, and relative humidity sensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Slayzak, S.J.; Ryan, J.P.

    1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As part of the US Department of Energy`s Advanced Desiccant Technology Program, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is characterizing the state-of-the-art in desiccant dehumidifiers, the key component of desiccant cooling systems. The experimental data will provide industry and end users with independent performance evaluation and help researchers assess the energy savings potential of the technology. Accurate determination of humidity ratio is critical to this work and an understanding of the capabilities of the available instrumentation is central to its proper application. This paper compares the minimum theoretical random error in humidity ratio calculation for three common measurement methods to give a sense of the relative maximum accuracy possible for each method assuming systematic errors can be made negligible. A series of experiments conducted also illustrate the capabilities of relative humidity sensors as compared to dewpoint sensors in measuring the grain depression of desiccant dehumidifiers. These tests support the results of the uncertainty analysis. At generally available instrument accuracies, uncertainty in calculated humidity ratio for dewpoint sensors is determined to be constant at approximately 2%. Wet-bulb sensors range between 2% and 6% above 10 g/kg (4%--15% below), and relative humidity sensors vary between 4% above 90% rh and 15% at 20% rh. Below 20% rh, uncertainty for rh sensors increases dramatically. Highest currently attainable accuracies bring dewpoint instruments down to 1% uncertainty, wet bulb to a range of 1%--3% above 10 g/kg (1.5%--8% below), and rh sensors between 1% and 5%.

  14. A New Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Physical Parameters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victoria, University of

    A New Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Physical of Mechanical Engineering) ABSTRACT Within a wave energy converter's operational bandwidth, device operation

  15. A New Indirect Adaptive Control Scheme for Time-Varying Plants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ioannou, Petros

    A New Indirect Adaptive Control Scheme for Time-Varying Plants Absrmcr of the indirectadaptiveschemewhicharemoreappropriatefortime-varying plants that for successful estimation. the oyerall plant is notrestrictedto var?slowl)withtime. The new estimatorandcontrol

  16. The Effects of Varying Task Priorities on Language Production by Young and Older Adults

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemper, Susan; Schmalzried, RaLynn Cheri; Herman, Ruth; Mohankumar, Deepthi

    2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present study compared how varying task priorities affected young and older adults' language production. Both young and older adults responded to monetary incentives to vary their performance when simultaneously talking ...

  17. Calculation defines uncertainty of unaccounted-for gas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norman, R.; Jepson, P.

    1987-04-06T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for defining the uncertainty of the unaccounted-for gas figure and for identifying and isolating causes of significant changes in this figure will lead to a more accurate accounting of volumes in high-pressure natural-gas transmission systems. An error analysis can be employed to ascertain the uncertainty on the unaccounted-for gas figure for such systems along with a simple method for recognizing the magnitude and time of significant changes in this figure. In addition, a better understanding of factors affecting meter accuracy will lead to more precise gas measurements.

  18. Computer-aided-design of agricultural drains under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garcia, Luis Alfredo

    1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to be constructed. Using drainage helps dissolve and remove some excess salts and alkal ines. The balance between the amount of salts brought in by irrigation and the amount taken out by drainage is referred to as the salt balance of the area (Scofi eld 1940... for the depth, D, and spacing, L. D, L & 0 (4. 5) This MPP did not include uncertainty. In the next section uncertainty will be incorporated into the MPP. The ful I deterministic NPP is shown below: 35 Min [Ci + C2 + C3 + C4 + s. t. L2Qd D + d' ? (d...

  19. Compendium of Regulatory Requirements Governing Underground Injection of Drilling Wastes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Puder, Markus G.; Bryson, Bill; Veil, John A.

    2003-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides a comprehensive compendium of the regulatory requirements governing the injection processes used for disposing of drilling wastes; in particular, for a process referred to in this report as slurry injection. The report consists of a narrative discussion of the regulatory requirements and practices for each of the oil- and gas-producing states, a table summarizing the types of injection processes authorized in each state, and an appendix that contains the text of many of the relevant state regulations and policies.

  20. Nuclear regulatory legislation, 104th Congress, Volume 1, No. 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document is the first of two volumes compiling statutes and material pertaining to nuclear regulatory legislation through the 104th Congress, 2nd Session. It is intended for use as a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) internal resource document. Legislative information reproduced in this document includes portions of the Atomic Energy Act, Energy Reorganization Act, Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act, and Nuclear Waste Policy Act. Other information included in this volume pertains to NRC user fees, NRC authorizations, the Inspector General Act, and the Administrative Procedure Act.

  1. Legal and regulatory issues affecting aquifer thermal energy storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendrickson, P.L.

    1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document updates and expands the report with a similar title issued in October 1980. This document examines a number of legal and regulatory issues that potentially can affect implementation of the aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) concept. This concept involves the storage of thermal energy in an underground aquifer until a later date when it can be effectively utilized. Either heat energy or chill can be stored. Potential end uses of the energy include district space heating and cooling, industrial process applications, and use in agriculture or aquaculture. Issues are examined in four categories: regulatory requirements, property rights, potential liability, and issues related to heat or chill delivery.

  2. Regulatory practices in India for establishing nuclear power stations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De, A.K. [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Calcutta (India); Singh, S.P. [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Bombay (India)

    1991-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) of India was established as an independent regulatory authority charged with regulating radiation protection and nuclear safety. This article reviews the current state of India`s nuclear power reactor program and discusses the makeup of functions of the AERB, including the preparation of issuance of safety codes, guides, and other standards, with special recent emphasis on pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWRs). The AERB`s relationship to nuclear plant owners is discussed, as are the inspection and control functions the AERB performs, both for the construction and operation of nuclear plants and the licensing of operating personnel. 8 refs., 2 figs.

  3. A time varying GARCH (p, q) model and related statistical inference

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bandyopadhyay, Antar

    A time varying GARCH (p, q) model and related statistical inference Technical Report No: ISINE Institute North-East Centre, Tezpur, Assam-784028 #12;A time varying GARCH (p, q) model and related varying GARCH (tvGARCH (p, q)) model and consider certain related inferential problems. A two-step local

  4. Multi-lane Vehicle-to-Vehicle Networks with Time-Varying Radio Ranges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Multi-lane Vehicle-to-Vehicle Networks with Time-Varying Radio Ranges: Information Propagation propagation speed in multi-lane vehicle-to-vehicle networks such as roads or highways. We focus on the impact of time-varying radio ranges and of multiple lanes of vehicles, varying in speed and in density. We assess

  5. ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATES FOR A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER IN A HARMONIC MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irizarry, Rafael A.

    ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATES FOR A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER IN A HARMONIC MODEL WITH MULTIPLE harmonic regression models are useful for cases where harmonic parameters appear to be time-varying. Least, harmonic regression, signal processing, sound analysis, time-varying parameters, weighted least squares

  6. Representing Uncertainty in Decision Support Harvey J. Greenberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenberg, Harvey J.

    overlapping factors. · Source of uncertainty. Is it a future event, such as product demand? Is it ignorance defines a proven reserve? · Time scale. Is the decision a strategic one, to cover a planning horizon? Is it a major setback, such as the loss of a company? Is it catastrophic, such as the loss of a city? · Decision

  7. Commitment Under Uncertainty: Two-Stage Stochastic Matching Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathieu, Claire

    on classical combinatorial optimization problems [23]: set cover, minimum spanning tree, Steiner tree, maximum structures, with the notable exception of Gupta and P´al's work on stochastic Steiner Tree [9]. SecondCommitment Under Uncertainty: Two-Stage Stochastic Matching Problems Irit Katriel , Claire Kenyon

  8. CSC412: Uncertainty & Learning in AI . Instructor: Sam Roweis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roweis, Sam

    1 CSC412: Uncertainty & Learning in AI . Instructor: Sam Roweis . Tutor: Y.W. Teh . Lectures: MW10 inherently stochastic behaviour in the world A B C D E . Databases -- traditional DB technology cannot answer filterting (e.g. Amazon) Other Related Applications . Stochastic Signal Processing -- denoising, source

  9. Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.

  10. AN OPTIMIZATION APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION IN BOUNDARY LOAD FLOW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stankoviæ, Aleksandar

    .g., SCADA) and network parame- ters. The method is potentially applicable to large-scale power systems) possible errors in measurements (e.g., SCADA). Topological uncertainties are linked with the fidelity. On the other hand, errors in network parameters and in SCADA measurements tend to be smaller in size

  11. Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty Submitted in partial chapters. My conversations with Kurt Walzer at Clean Air Task Force and Rory McIlmoil at Coal Valley Wind Technology Laboratory. I did not complete this work alone. I had a lot of help along the way. I would like

  12. Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    1 Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations Vijay Gupta1 of oilfields in remote locations that are often hundreds of miles offshore. Surprisingly, there has been a net by the terms of the contract between oil companies and governments. Figure 1: A unified framework for Oilfield

  13. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  14. Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansen, Tor Arne

    Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav.ntnu.no) Abstract: The information content in measurements of offshore oil and gas production is often low, and when in the context of offshore oil and gas fields, can be considered the total output of production wells, a mass

  15. Treatment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Planning 1 Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    attribute to lie. For example, we could specify the price of natural gas in one of the following ways: #12 with time. #12;3 Figure 2: Specification of uncertainty in natural gas price Aside: We may also apply (maturation rate) Fuel costs forecast Demand forecast Plant retirement dates and salvage value Policy

  16. ASME PTC 47, gasification combined cycle performance -- Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, D.H.; Horazak, D.A.; Bannister, R.L.

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Determining the uncertainty of measured calculated performance parameters is required in all Performance Test Codes of the ASME. This determination begins with the equations defining the performance parameters of the equipment or system--input, useful output, and effectiveness (an input/output ratio). The variables in these equations are: plant operating conditions measured throughout a test; corrections that compensate for deviations of other significant measured plant and ambient operating conditions from their values specified for the test. PTC47, Gasification Combined Cycle Plant Performance, will define procedures for the performance testing of overall gasification combined cycle plants and for each of three major sections that may comprise such a plant. The Committee is now defining the performance parameters for these tests. Performance factor computations include uncertainty calculations in order to provide preliminary estimates of the accuracy expected from the test methods proposed in this Code. Uncertainty calculations will also be used to explore energy balance methods for calculating the energy input to various gasifiers--entrained flow, fluidized bed, and moving bed. Such methods would be important as possible alternatives to direct measurements of flows and heating values of the various fuels fed to the gasifiers. Uncertainty calculations will also be used to assist in identifying those measurements of ambient, imposed, and controlled operating conditions that significantly affect test results and for which correction factors should be determined.

  17. A Genetic Programming Methodology for Missile Countermeasures Optimization Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    The missile countermeasures optimization (MCO) problem has been the subject of intensive research [12], [6 with aircraft maneuvers and the introduction of uncertainty make the MCO problem extremely difficult to solve states of the MCO system. The SAM's current state may be uncertain as a result of incomplete data

  18. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  19. Complementary Space for Enhanced Uncertainty and Dynamics Visualization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Texas at Austin, University of

    of complementary space, i.e. the space exterior to but still "near" the surface in question. In this paper, we showComplementary Space for Enhanced Uncertainty and Dynamics Visualization Chandrajit Bajaj, Andrew to it. (a) A primal space visualization of the first time step with the heme group identified. (b

  20. Uncertainties and Ambiguities in Percentiles and how to Avoid Them

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schreiber, Michael

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The recently proposed fractional scoring scheme is used to attribute publications to percentile rank classes. It is shown that in this way uncertainties and ambiguities in the evaluation of percentile ranks do not occur. Using the fractional scoring the total score of all papers exactly reproduces the theoretical value.

  1. On quantifying the space of uncertainty of stochastic simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Froyland, Gary

    Froyland March 15, 2011 Abstract Distance computation as a technique to measure dissimilarity- mon approach to assessing geological uncertainty, and one of the most common practical methods can create multiple realizations that honor the original School of Mining Engineering,The University

  2. Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anitescu, Mihai

    1 Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification in the outputs. The usual difficulties in modeling the work of the nuclear reactor models include the large size, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA b Nuclear Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory

  3. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  4. Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon Alan Ingham and Alistair, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon Alan Ingham and Alistair Ulph Tyndall Centre for Climate International Seminar on the Social Cost of Carbon, London, 7th July 2003. #12;2 Summary In this paper we

  5. Reducing Uncertainty: A Formal Theory of Organizations in Action 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amsterdam, University of

    Reducing Uncertainty: A Formal Theory of Organizations in Action 1 Jaap Kamps and L'aszl'o P presents a formal reconstruction of James D. Thompson's classic contribution to organization theory---a heretofore unknown implication of the theory. #12; 1 Introduction Thompson's Organizations in Action

  6. Reducing Uncertainty: A Formal Theory of Organizations in Action1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamps, Jaap

    Reducing Uncertainty: A Formal Theory of Organizations in Action1 Jaap Kamps and La´szlo´ Po contribution to organization theory, Organizations in Action. The reconstruction explicates the underlying, this theory explains why Thompson's propositions do not hold for noncomplex or "atomic" organizations (a

  7. NON-DOUBLE-COUPLE EARTHQUAKES: NET FORCES AND UNCERTAINTIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foulger, G. R.

    NON-DOUBLE-COUPLE EARTHQUAKES: NET FORCES AND UNCERTAINTIES G.R. Foulger, B.R. Julian University-980) to include net forces in the mechanisms. Net forces are theoretically required to describe earthquakes) waves cannot resolve sources such as vertical dipoles. When source mechanisms include net forces, even

  8. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillas, Serge

    decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, weInvestment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty Afzal Siddiqui Karl Maribu 13 for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via

  9. Robust Path Planning and Feedback Design under Stochastic Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williams, Brian C.

    . Introduction Autonomous vehicles such as Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) need to be able to plan trajectories; prior work showed that a UAV operating at a constant altitude as well as other autonomous vehicles canRobust Path Planning and Feedback Design under Stochastic Uncertainty Lars Blackmore Autonomous

  10. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  11. POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Car e1, M.P. Nowak2, W. Romisch2 Forschungsgemeinschaft. leads to a tremendous increase in the complex- ity of the traditional power optimization mod- els-burning) thermal units, pumped-storage hydro plants and delivery con- tracts and describe an optimization model

  12. POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO­THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Carøe 1 , M.P. Nowak 2 , W. R in the complex­ ity of the traditional power optimization mod­ els. The remedy we propose is decomposition which­storage hydro plants and delivery con­ tracts and describe an optimization model for its least­cost operation

  13. Developments of the Price equation and natural selection under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grafen, Alan

    success, following Darwin (1859). Here, this project is pursued by developing the Price equation, ¢rstDevelopments of the Price equation and natural selection under uncertainty Alan Grafen Department to employ these approaches. Here, a new theore- tical development arising from the Price equation provides

  14. Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation Based Maritime Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Dorp, Johan René

    , such as nuclear powered vessels [6], vessels transporting liquefied natural gas [7] and offshore oil #12;2 and gas the decision-makers unsure whether the evidence was sufficient to assess specific risks and benefits. The first techniques to propagate uncertainty throughout the analysis. The conclusions drawn in the original study

  15. Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    secondary recovery industry. Secondary recovery forestalls depletion of non-renewable resources and avoidsStochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty and Optimization Program #12;2 #12;3 Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under

  16. Uncertainties analysis of fission fraction for reactor antineutrino experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    X. B. Ma; F. Lu; L. Z. Wang; Y. X. Chen; W. L. Zhong; F. P. An

    2015-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Reactor antineutrino experiment are used to study neutrino oscillation, search for signatures of nonstandard neutrino interaction, and monitor reactor operation for safeguard application. Reactor simulation is an important source of uncertainties for a reactor neutrino experiment. Commercial code is used for reactor simulation to evaluate fission fraction in Daya Bay neutrino experiment, but the source code doesn't open to our researcher results from commercial secret. In this study, The open source code DRAGON was improved to calculate the fission rates of the four most important isotopes in fissions, $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu, and then was validated for PWRs using the Takahama-3 benchmark. The fission fraction results are consistent with those of MIT's results. Then, fission fraction of Daya Bay reactor core was calculated by using improved DRAGON code, and the fission fraction calculated by DRAGON agreed well with these calculated by SCIENCE. The average deviation less than 5\\% for all the four isotopes. The correlation coefficient matrix between $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu were also studied using DRAGON, and then the uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction was calculated by using the correlation coefficient matrix. The uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction simulation is 0.6\\% per core for Daya Bay antineutrino experiment. The uncertainties source of fission fraction calculation need further to be studied in the future.

  17. Impact of Power Generation Uncertainty on Power System Static Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liberzon, Daniel

    in load and generation are modeled as random variables and the output of the power flow computationImpact of Power Generation Uncertainty on Power System Static Performance Yu Christine Chen, Xichen--The rapid growth in renewable energy resources such as wind and solar generation introduces significant

  18. The Geometry of Uncertainty in Moving Objects Databases

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wolfson, Ouri E.

    The Geometry of Uncertainty in Moving Objects Databases Goce Trajcevski1 , Ouri Wolfson1@arl.mil Abstract. This work addresses the problem of querying moving ob- jects databases. which capture- ing, constructing, and querying a trajectories database. We propose to model a trajectory as a 3D

  19. Strategy for addressing composition uncertainties in a Hanford high-level waste vitrification plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bryan, M.F.; Piepel, G.F.

    1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various requirements will be imposed on the feed material and glass produced by the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification plant at the Hanford Site. A statistical process/product control system will be used to control the melter feed composition and to check and document product quality. Two general types of uncertainty are important in HLW vitrification process/product control: model uncertainty and composition uncertainty. Model uncertainty is discussed by Hrma, Piepel, et al. (1994). Composition uncertainty includes the uncertainties inherent in estimates of feed composition and other process measurements. Because feed composition is a multivariate quantity, multivariate estimates of composition uncertainty (i.e., covariance matrices) are required. Three components of composition uncertainty will play a role in estimating and checking batch and glass attributes: batch-to-batch variability, within-batch uncertainty, and analytical uncertainty. This document reviews the techniques to be used in estimating and updating composition uncertainties and in combining these composition uncertainties with model uncertainty to yield estimates of (univariate) uncertainties associated with estimates of batch and glass properties.

  20. BIOINFORMATICS Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks from Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Babu, M. Madan

    model regulatory relations in terms of Boolean relationships and combinatorial logic circuits (Kauffman the model (Shmulevich et al., 2002), the immediate extension of PBNs to any finite quantization (also. As opposed to PBNs, where gene interactions are modeled explicitly in terms of binary or multi-valued logical

  1. Report on the Workshop on Regulatory Approaches to Smart

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Report on the Workshop on Regulatory Approaches to Smart Grid Investment and Deployment May APEC Secretariat APEC#212-CT-04.2 #12;SCSC Smart Grid Workshop 2012 Page 1 Grid Investment and Deployment May 16-17, 2012 Quebec City, Canada #12;SCSC Smart Grid Workshop 2012

  2. Leptin and regulatory T lymphocytes in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Leptin and regulatory T lymphocytes in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension Alice Huertas1 Centre National de Référence de l'Hypertension Pulmonaire Sévère, Service de Pneumologie et Réanimation Respiratoire, Hôpital Antoine Béclère, AP-HP, Clamart, F- 92140; 3 INSERM U999 Hypertension Artérielle

  3. nature genetics advance online publication 1 Identifying regulatory networks by

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Church, George M.

    for modeling transcriptional regulatory networks in more complex eukaryotes. 1Department of Genetics and Lipper of multiple tran- scription factors. Examples of this combinatorial transcriptional control have been, including the control of gene expression in response to a variety of signals from the environment

  4. Hazard Communication -Regulatory Compliance 1/17/2013 a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Rick L.

    Hazard Communication - Regulatory Compliance 1/17/2013 a OSHA has updated their Hazard Communication Standard (29 CFR 1910.1200) and requires that all employees that work with Hazardous Chemicals this standard applies are required to receive an updated training as new chemical hazards are introduced

  5. argentine nuclear regulatory: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    argentine nuclear regulatory First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 UNITED STATES NUCLEAR...

  6. DEVELOPING A SET OF REGULATORY ANALOGS FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DEVELOPING A SET OF REGULATORY ANALOGS FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION D.M. Reiner1 , H.J. Herzog2 1 Judge Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA, email: hjherzog@mit.edu ABSTRACT Carbon capture and sequestration variables critical for determining the success of carbon sequestration as a viable climate policy option

  7. A SEARCH FOR REGULATORY ANALOGS TO CARBON SEQUESTRATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A SEARCH FOR REGULATORY ANALOGS TO CARBON SEQUESTRATION D.M. Reiner and H.J. Herzog1 1 Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA. 02139, USA ABSTRACT Carbon capture and sequestration for determining the success of carbon sequestration as a viable climate policy option. INTRODUCTION To date

  8. The underappreciated role of regulatory enforcement in natural resource conservation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nie, Martin

    are analyzed. Keywords Natural resource policy Á Environmental policy Á Governance Á Conservation Á RegulationThe underappreciated role of regulatory enforcement in natural resource conservation Martin Nie resource conservation in the USA. It first briefly explains why the judiciary is so involved in resource

  9. Metabolism and proliferation share common regulatory pathways in cancer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Metabolism and proliferation share common regulatory pathways in cancer cells. Vanessa Fritz, proliferation, and cancer inserm-00491405,version1-11Jun2010 Author manuscript, published in "Oncogene 2010;29(31):4369-77" DOI : 10.1038/onc.2010.182 #12;Metabolism, proliferation and cancer Fritz and Fajas 2 Abstract Cancer

  10. Air Quality: Air Pollutants, SLAC Emissions Sources, and Regulatory Reference

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wechsler, Risa H.

    Air Quality: Air Pollutants, SLAC Emissions Sources, and Regulatory Reference Department: Chemical and General Safety Program: Air Quality Owner: Program Manager Authority: ES&H Manual, Chapter 30, Air Quality1 SLAC's air emissions are regulated through a federally mandated site-wide permit as well

  11. Natural Gas: Major Legislative and Regulatory Actions (1935 - 2008)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This special report Web-based product presents a chronology of some of the key federal legislative and regulatory actions that have helped shape the natural gas market, with particular emphasis on policy directives from 1978 to October 2008. Separate reports provide brief descriptions of specific legislation, regulations, or policies, and their impacts on the natural gas market.

  12. Uncertainty of calorimeter measurements at NREL's high flux solar furnace

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C.E.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The uncertainties of the calorimeter and concentration measurements at the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are discussed. Two calorimeter types have been used to date. One is an array of seven commercially available circular foil calorimeters (gardon or heat flux gages) for primary concentrator peak flux (up to 250 W/cm{sup 2}). The second is a cold-water calorimeter designed and built by the University of Chicago to measure the average exit power of the reflective compound parabolic secondary concentrator used at the HFSF (over 3.3 kW across a 1.6cm{sup {minus}2} exit aperture, corresponding to a flux of about 2 kW/cm{sup 2}). This paper discussed the uncertainties of the calorimeter and pyrheliometer measurements and resulting concentration calculations. The measurement uncertainty analysis is performed according to the ASME/ANSI standard PTC 19.1 (1985). Random and bias errors for each portion of the measurement are analyzed. The results show that as either the power or the flux is reduced, the uncertainties increase. Another calorimeter is being designed for a new, refractive secondary which will use a refractive material to produce a higher average flux (5 kW/cm{sup 2}) than the reflective secondary. The new calorimeter will use a time derivative of the fluid temperature as a key measurement of the average power out of the secondary. A description of this calorimeter and test procedure is also presented, along with a pre-test estimate of major sources of uncertainty. 8 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  13. The role of reactive oxygen species and calcium in the interferon regulatory factor 3 mediated toll like receptor 4 signaling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Zhiyuan

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Cutting edge: anthrax lethal toxin inhibits activation of IFN-regulatory factorCutting edge: anthrax lethal toxin inhibits activation of IFN-regulatory factorCutting edge: anthrax lethal toxin inhibits activation of IFN-regulatory factor

  14. Possible Regulatory Role for the Histidine-Rich Loop in the Zinc...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Regulatory Role for the Histidine-Rich Loop in the Zinc Transport Protein, ZnuA. Possible Regulatory Role for the Histidine-Rich Loop in the Zinc Transport Protein, ZnuA. Abstract:...

  15. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal). Second quarter 1996, April--June

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sheehan, M.A.

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) staff and it`s contractors.

  16. Systematic dissection of regulatory motifs in 2000 predicted human enhancers using a massively parallel reporter assay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kheradpour, Pouya

    Genome-wide chromatin annotations have permitted the mapping of putative regulatory elements across multiple human cell types. However, their experimental dissection by directed regulatory motif disruption has remained ...

  17. Environmental Policy Factors in the Maritime Industry and Anticipated Regulatory Trends

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hayes, Richard D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Increased environmental regulatory policy has been put in place by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in response to waterborne oil pollution events. We examine the IMO regulatory response to these incidences. This paper covers literature...

  18. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1996, Volume 21, No. 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sheehan, M.A.

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This compilation is the annual cumulation of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors.

  19. Computational inference of transcriptional regulatory networks from expression proling and transcription

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Babu, M. Madan

    Bioinformatics Program, 2 Department of Biology and 3 Biomedical Engineering Department, Boston University, 44Computational inference of transcriptional regulatory networks from expression pro ABSTRACT We have developed a computational method for transcriptional regulatory network inference, CARRIE

  20. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Apostolakis, G.; Boore, D.M. [and others

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreement among experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of ground motion for design at a given site. In order to review the present state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) co-sponsored a project to provide methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project has been carried out by a seven-member Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) supported by a large number other experts. The SSHAC reviewed past studies, including the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the EPRI landmark PSHA studies of the 1980`s and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. The Committee`s most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are due to procedural rather than technical differences. Thus, in addition to providing a detailed documentation on state-of-the-art elements of a PSHA, this report provides a series of procedural recommendations. The role of experts is analyzed in detail. Two entities are formally defined-the Technical Integrator (TI) and the Technical Facilitator Integrator (TFI)--to account for the various levels of complexity in the technical issues and different levels of efforts needed in a given study.