National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for regulatory uncertainties vary

  1. Predictive Motion Planning for AUVs subject to strong time-varying currents and forecasting uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Ryan N.

    represented as spatial and temporally varying ocean currents with a bounded uncertainty in their predictions-series predictive ocean current model. Results show the combined NRMPC and A* approach is capable of generating on exploiting variations in ocean currents [4]­[6], with energy savings of over 32% demonstrated in strongly

  2. Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

    2013-07-01

    With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

  3. Tracking of Time-Varying Genomic Regulatory Networks with a LASSO-Kalman Smoother

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouaynaya, Nidhal

    during the life cycle of the Drosophila Melanogaster. The recovered networks show that few genes dictate the architecture of genetic regulatory networks. Nonetheless, the status quo in regulatory network Engineering Assessment and Methods) project, which built a blind framework for performance assessment

  4. Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

  5. Technical and Regulatory Guidance Technical and Regulatory Guidance for Design, Installation,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zornberg, Jorge G.

    Technical and Regulatory Guidance Technical and Regulatory Guidance for Design, Installation in the document. The technical implications of any information or guidance contained in this document may vary, ITRC recommends also consulting applicable standards, laws, regulations, suppliers of materials

  6. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty Analysis Home Stationary Power Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Energy Safety Technologies Risk and Safety Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty AnalysisTara...

  7. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, C B

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results.

  8. Cosmology with Varying Constants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. J. A. P. Martins

    2000-08-18

    I motivate and discuss some recent work on theories with varying constants, and consider some possible observational consequences and tests. Particular emphasis is given to models which can (almost) exactly mimic the predictions of standard inflationary models.

  9. Regulatory Analysis on Criteria

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1997 S . Schneider, S . A. McGuire Division of Regulatory Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555-0001...

  10. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  11. CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR POPULATION PROJECTIONS WHEN VITAL RATES VARY RANDOMLY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR POPULATION PROJECTIONS WHEN VITAL RATES VARY RANDOMLY TIM GERRODE, age distribution, and vital rates are known (e.g., Leslie 1945; Keyfitz 1968). Such population rates are available. However, there is uncertainty in such projections. First, we rarely know vital

  12. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  13. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  14. Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

    2012-03-20

    Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

  15. Long term infrastructure investments under uncertainty in the electric power sector using approximate dynamic programming techniques

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seelhof, Michael

    2014-01-01

    A computer model was developed to find optimal long-term investment strategies for the electric power sector under uncertainty with respect to future regulatory regimes and market conditions. The model is based on a ...

  16. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rate-expression parameters. It is important, both for model validation and design optimization purposes, that these uncertainties be adequately quantified and propagated to...

  17. Environmental Health Policy Decisions: The Role of Uncertainty in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    in quantitative risk assessments and associated regulatory outcomes. In representing a broad spec- trum of this work is to underscore the role of irreversibility and uncertainty for bene t-cost analysis implications for those health professionals, particu- larly in the area of quantitative risk assessment, whose

  18. Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bargiela, Andrzej

    Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department Operation of water distribution systems requires a variety of decisions to be made. There are system. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent

  19. The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)

  20. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  1. Analyzing spatially-varying blur

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chakrabarti, Ayan

    Blur is caused by a pixel receiving light from multiple scene points, and in many cases, such as object motion, the induced blur varies spatially across the image plane. However, the seemingly straight-forward task of ...

  2. Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating expenses (opex) for the project, 3. The number of wells and associated capex to recover the reserves, 4

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  4. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the first in a series of inference uncertainty estimations. While the methods demonstrated are primarily statistical, these do not preclude the use of nonprobabilistic methods for uncertainty characterization. The methods presented permit accurate determinations for validation and eventual prediction. It is a goal that these methods establish a standard against which best practice may evolve for determining degree of validation.

  5. Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Owhadi, Houman; Sullivan, Timothy John; McKerns, Mike; Ortiz, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \\emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \\emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contr...

  6. Uncertainty and calibration analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-03-01

    All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

  7. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).

  8. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore »of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).« less

  9. Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lodwick, Weldon

    11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

  10. FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    Reliant and BP Energy at the Palo Verde trading hub in Arizona. BP Energy separately settled its endFEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT Energy Regulatory Commission today approved a settlement between the Commission's enforcement staff

  11. FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    outages during California's energy crisis in 2000 and 2001. Since then, OMOI has reviewed additional dataFEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT SETTLEMENT BETWEEN DUKE AND COMMISSION STAFF The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today accepted

  12. FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    Enron's activities during the 2000-2001 Western energy crisis, and approved three other settlementsFEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON,D.C.20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT JURISDICTION UNDER SECTION 1290 OF EPACT The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today approved a settlement

  13. United States Nuclear Regulatory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission United States Department of Energy United States.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555-0001 E-mail: DISTRIBUTION@nrc.gov Facsimile: 301; and Commission papers and their attachments. NRC publications in the NUREG series, NRC regulations, and Title 10

  14. Essays on pricing under uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

    2008-10-10

    This dissertation analyzes pricing under uncertainty focusing on the U.S. airline industry. It sets to test theories of price dispersion driven by uncertainty in the demand by taking advantage of very detailed information about the dynamics...

  15. Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to include uncertainty that lies in modeling process and that arises from input values when predicting system performance, and to incorporate uncertainty related to system controls in a computationally...

  16. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.1 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives

  17. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    First, it recovers historical oil price uncertainty seriesmore reliable historical oil price uncertainty series as itAs a result, the historical oil price uncertainty series is

  18. Local Varying-Alpha Theories

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    John D. Barrow; Joao Magueijo

    2015-01-30

    In a recent paper we demonstrated how the simplest model for varying alpha may be interpreted as the effect of a dielectric material, generalized to be consistent with Lorentz invariance. Unlike normal dielectrics, such a medium cannot change the speed of light, and its dynamics obey a Klein-Gordon equation. This work immediately suggests an extension of the standard theory, even if we require compliance with Lorentz invariance. Instead of a wave equation, the dynamics may satisfy a local algebraic relation involving the permittivity and the properties of the electromagnetic field, in analogy with more conventional dielectric (but still preserving Lorentz invariance). We develop the formalism for such theories and investigate some phenomenological implications. The problem of the divergence of the classical self-energy can be solved, or at least softened, in this framework. Some interesting new cosmological solutions for the very early universe are found, including the possibility of a bounce, inflation and expansion with a loitering phase, all of which are induced by early variations in alpha.

  19. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis Home

  20. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis

  1. Vice Dean Regulatory Affairs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chisholm, Rex L.

    Vice Dean Regulatory Affairs Chief Compliance Officer Robert M. Rosa, MD Landsberg Dean Eric G. Neilson, MD Departments, Centers and InsCtutes McGaw Medical Center ExecuCve Director, Individual Giving Larry Kuhn Associate Dean

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harrison, J.D.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  5. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (?15N and ?18O) but all methods testedmore »are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.« less

  6. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  7. EPAct Transportation Regulatory Activities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-11-21

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Program manages several transportation regulatory activities established by the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended by the Energy Conservation Reauthorization Act of 1998, EPAct 2005, and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA).

  8. FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    that this might mitigate losses in Reliant's existing forward positions. The vice-president of power trading, who POWER EXCHANGE MARKET The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today approved a staff settlement calling for Reliant Energy to pay $13.8 million for limiting the amount of power it offered to the California Power

  9. Nuclear Regulatory Commission information digest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None,

    1990-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission information digest provides summary information regarding the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, its regulatory responsibilities, and areas licensed by the commission. This is an annual publication for the general use of the NRC Staff and is available to the public. The digest is divided into two parts: the first presents an overview of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the second provides data on NRC commercial nuclear reactor licensees and commercial nuclear power reactors worldwide.

  10. Cumulative theoretical uncertainties in lithium depletion boundary age

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tognelli, Emanuele; Degl'Innocenti, Scilla

    2015-01-01

    We performed a detailed analysis of the main theoretical uncertainties affecting the age at the lithium depletion boundary (LDB). To do that we computed almost 12000 pre-main sequence models with mass in the range [0.06, 0.4] M_sun by varying input physics (nuclear reaction cross-sections, plasma electron screening, outer boundary conditions, equation of state, and radiative opacity), initial chemical elements abundances (total metallicity, helium and deuterium abundances, and heavy elements mixture), and convection efficiency (mixing length parameter, alpha_ML). As a first step, we studied the effect of varying these quantities individually within their extreme values. Then, we analysed the impact of simultaneously perturbing the main input/parameters without an a priori assumption of independence. Such an approach allowed us to build for the first time the cumulative error stripe, which defines the edges of the maximum uncertainty region in the theoretical LDB age. We found that the cumulative error stripe ...

  11. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  12. Regulatory Considerations for Developing Generation Projects...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Generation Projects on Federal Lands Regulatory Considerations for Developing Generation Projects on Federal Lands Presentation covers regulatory considerations for developing...

  13. Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation Projects Webinar May 23, 2012 Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation Projects Webinar May...

  14. Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giavazzi, Francesco

    Using German microdata and a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty. We find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political ...

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  16. Game Theory for auctions Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dignum, Frank

    widenarrow¬drillThe world is uncertain: 60% chance for oil 40% chance of no oil -29,-2-29,-16-29,0wide -16 in static games #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static 1,116,-131,0wide -1,1614,1444,0narrow 0,310,440,0¬drill,-2-16,-16-16,0narrow 0,-290,-160,0¬drill widenarrow¬drill #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static Combine the two possible

  17. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification...

  18. Solar mass-varying neutrino oscillations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marfatia, Danny; Huber, P.; Barger, V.

    2005-11-18

    We propose that the solar neutrino deficit may be due to oscillations of mass-varying neutrinos (MaVaNs). This scenario elucidates solar neutrino data beautifully while remaining comfortably compatible with atmospheric ...

  19. Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 uncertainty analysis--Preliminary selection of uncertain parameters and analysis methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Kalinich, Donald A.

    2014-02-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) plans to conduct uncertainty analyses (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) plant with the MELCOR code. The model to be used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). However, that study only examined a handful of various model inputs and boundary conditions, and the predictions yielded only fair agreement with plant data and current release estimates. The goal of this uncertainty study is to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core melt progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, vessel lower head failure, etc.). In preparation for the SNL Fukushima UA work, a scoping study has been completed to identify important core melt progression parameters for the uncertainty analysis. The study also lays out a preliminary UA methodology.

  20. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    historical uncertainty series by incorporating a realized volatility series from daily oil price data

  1. Regulatory Analysis on Criteria

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield MunicipalTechnical Report:Speeding accessby aLEDSpeeding FINAL Progress ReportEnergy,Regulatory

  2. Environmental Regulatory Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would like submitKansasCommunitiesof Energy Services » ProgramEnvironmentalPolicyRegulatory

  3. Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tawfik, Abdel Nasser

    2015-01-01

    Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.

  4. Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2015-09-22

    Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.

  5. Microwave fidelity studies by varying antenna coupling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    B. Köber; U. Kuhl; H. -J. Stöckmann; T. Gorin; D. V. Savin; T. H. Seligman

    2010-09-16

    The fidelity decay in a microwave billiard is considered, where the coupling to an attached antenna is varied. The resulting quantity, coupling fidelity, is experimentally studied for three different terminators of the varied antenna: a hard wall reflection, an open wall reflection, and a 50 Ohm load, corresponding to a totally open channel. The model description in terms of an effective Hamiltonian with a complex coupling constant is given. Quantitative agreement is found with the theory obtained from a modified VWZ approach [Verbaarschot et al, Phys. Rep. 129, 367 (1985)].

  6. Canada-United States Regulatory Cooperation Council Webinar:...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL - WORK PLANNING FORMAT REGULATORY PARTNERSHIP STATEMENT REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL - WORK PLANNING FORMAT: Natural Gas Use in Transportation...

  7. Pharmaceutical Waste Management Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linninger, Andreas A.

    Pharmaceutical Waste Management Under Uncertainty Andreas A. Linninger and Aninda Chakraborty of their benefits and costs constitutes a formidable task. Designing plant-wide waste management policies assuming this article addresses the problem of finding optimal waste management policies for entire manufacturing sites

  8. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  9. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1981-02-11

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.

  10. The Thermal Collector With Varied Glass Covers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luminosu, I.; Pop, N.

    2010-08-04

    The thermal collector with varied glass covers represents an innovation realized in order to build a collector able to reach the desired temperature by collecting the solar radiation from the smallest surface, with the highest efficiency. In the case of the thermal collector with variable cover glasses, the number of the glass plates covering the absorber increases together with the length of the circulation pipe for the working fluid. The thermal collector with varied glass covers compared to the conventional collector better meet user requirements because: for the same temperature increase, has the collecting area smaller; for the same collection area, realizes the highest temperature increase and has the highest efficiency. This works is addressed to researchers in the solar energy and to engineers responsible with air-conditioning systems design or industrial and agricultural products drying.

  11. Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Distributed Generation Projects Webinar May 23, 2012 Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation Projects Webinar May 23, 2012 Document covers the Regulatory...

  12. Nuclear Regulatory Commission | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Commission Nuclear Regulatory Commission Nuclear Regulatory Commission More Documents & Publications What to Expect When Readying to Move Spent Nuclear Fuel from Commercial Nuclear...

  13. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Post, Wilfred M.

    Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization Contact: Gregg Marland, 865 of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere are essential for understanding global.S. Department of Energy Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization Abstract: The assessment

  14. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

  15. December 2008 Uncertainty and Production Planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graves, Stephen C.

    December 2008 Uncertainty and Production Planning Stephen C. Graves MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E how uncertainty is handled in production planning. We describe and critique current practices decisions that are critical to the proper handling of uncertainty in production planning. We observe

  16. Quantum Mechanics and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jang Young Bang; Micheal S. Berger

    2006-11-30

    The generalized uncertainty principle has been described as a general consequence of incorporating a minimal length from a theory of quantum gravity. We consider a simple quantum mechanical model where the operator corresponding to position has discrete eigenvalues and show how the generalized uncertainty principle results for minimum uncertainty wave packets.

  17. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Faybishenko, B.

    2010-01-01

    CR-6565, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Möller B. , BeerCR-6805. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC.

  18. System Identification: Time Varying and Nonlinear Methods 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Majji, Manoranjan

    2010-07-14

    fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Chair of Committee, John L. Junkins Committee Members, Aniruddha Datta Jer-Nan Juang Daniele Mortari Othon K. Rediniotis Srinivas R. Vadali Head of Department... time varying systems are governed by a set of difference equations governing the evolution of the state in time being given by 1k k k k kA B+ = +x x u (2.1) together with a corresponding initial state vector 0x . The state variable nk ?x ? is most...

  19. Discovering Regulatory Overlapping RNA Transcripts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Danford, Timothy William

    STEREO is a novel algorithm that discovers cis-regulatory RNA interactions by assembling complete and potentially overlapping same-strand RNA transcripts from tiling expression data. STEREO first identifies coherent segments ...

  20. Analysis of transcriptional regulatory circuitry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rinaldi, Nicola J., 1974-

    2004-01-01

    The research in this thesis has focused on the analysis of data from two types of microarray technologies with the goal of improving understanding of transcriptional regulatory circuitry in yeast. These microarray technologies, ...

  1. Spatially varying embedded stochastic galerkin methods for steady-state PDEs.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cyr, Eric Christopher

    2013-07-01

    Existing discretizations for stochastic PDEs, based on a tensor product between the deterministic basis and the stochastic basis, treat the required resolution of uncertainty as uniform across the physical domain. However, solutions to many PDEs of interest exhibit spatially localized features that may result in uncertainty being severely over or under-resolved by existing discretizations. In this report, we explore the mechanics and accuracy of using a spatially varying stochastic expansion. This is achieved through an adaptive refinement algorithm where simple error estimates are used to independently drive refinement of the stochastic basis at each point in the physical domain. Results are presented comparing the accuracy of the adaptive techinque to the accuracy achieved using uniform refinement.

  2. U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION GUIDEOFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Eric E.

    U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION REGULATORY Revision 3 June 1999 GUIDEOFFICE OF NUCLEAR protection problems present in the work place." The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) regulations REGULATORY RESEARCH REGULATORY GUIDE 8.13 (Draft was issued as DG-801 4) INSTRUCTION CONCERNING PRENATAL

  3. Optical vortex array in spatially varying lattice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kapoor, Amit; Senthilkumaran, P; Joseph, Joby

    2015-01-01

    We present an experimental method based on a modified multiple beam interference approach to generate an optical vortex array arranged in a spatially varying lattice. This method involves two steps which are: numerical synthesis of a consistent phase mask by using two-dimensional integrated phase gradient calculations and experimental implementation of produced phase mask by utilizing a phase only spatial light modulator in an optical 4f Fourier filtering setup. This method enables an independent variation of the orientation and period of the vortex lattice. As working examples, we provide the experimental demonstration of various spatially variant optical vortex lattices. We further confirm the existence of optical vortices by formation of fork fringes. Such lattices may find applications in size dependent trapping, sorting, manipulation and photonic crystals.

  4. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  5. Time varying, multivariate volume data reduction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ahrens, James P; Fout, Nathaniel; Ma, Kwan - Liu

    2010-01-01

    Large-scale supercomputing is revolutionizing the way science is conducted. A growing challenge, however, is understanding the massive quantities of data produced by large-scale simulations. The data, typically time-varying, multivariate, and volumetric, can occupy from hundreds of gigabytes to several terabytes of storage space. Transferring and processing volume data of such sizes is prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Although it may not be possible to entirely alleviate these problems, data compression should be considered as part of a viable solution, especially when the primary means of data analysis is volume rendering. In this paper we present our study of multivariate compression, which exploits correlations among related variables, for volume rendering. Two configurations for multidimensional compression based on vector quantization are examined. We emphasize quality reconstruction and interactive rendering, which leads us to a solution using graphics hardware to perform on-the-fly decompression during rendering. In this paper we present a solution which addresses the need for data reduction in large supercomputing environments where data resulting from simulations occupies tremendous amounts of storage. Our solution employs a lossy encoding scheme to acrueve data reduction with several options in terms of rate-distortion behavior. We focus on encoding of multiple variables together, with optional compression in space and time. The compressed volumes can be rendered directly with commodity graphics cards at interactive frame rates and rendering quality similar to that of static volume renderers. Compression results using a multivariate time-varying data set indicate that encoding multiple variables results in acceptable performance in the case of spatial and temporal encoding as compared to independent compression of variables. The relative performance of spatial vs. temporal compression is data dependent, although temporal compression has the advantage of offering smooth animations, while spatial compression can handle volumes of larger dimensions.

  6. Adoption of Renewable Energy Technologies Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Torani, Kiran

    2014-01-01

    of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis. ” IEA. 2000. “Curves for Energy Technology Policy. ” IEA, Paris, France.IEA. 2003. “IEA Energy Technology R&D Statistics. ” IEA,

  7. Quantification of uncertainty in reservoir simulations influenced by varying input geological parameters, Maria Reservoir, CaHu Field 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schepers, Karine Chrystel

    2005-02-17

    Volume Temperature Data (PVT Data).....................................37 4.2.4 Pressure Regime .......................................................................................37 4.2.5 Simulation Results... values, Swi=6%............................................................................28 Table 6 PVT summary .....................................................................................................31 Table 7 The complete PVT data set...

  8. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, Aron

    2015-06-25

    This presentation summarizes uncertainty estimation of radiometric data using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM) method.

  9. Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giles, Mike

    reservoir modelling Considerable uncertainty about porosity of rock Astronomy "Random" spatial: uncertainty in modelling parameters uncertainty in geometry uncertainty in initial conditions uncertainty with Uncertainty Examples: Long-term climate modelling: Lots of sources of uncertainty including the effects

  10. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

  11. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly...

  12. Investment under Regulatory Uncertainty: U.S. Electricity Generation Investment Since 1996

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ishii, Jun; Yan, Jingming

    2004-01-01

    real options” literature on investment, IPPs, due to the substan- tial sunk costs associated with power plant

  13. Investment under Regulatory Uncertainty: U.S. Electricity Generation Investment Since 1996

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ishii, Jun; Yan, Jingming

    2004-01-01

    information about California power plant projects available× 24 hours) In California, the CEC grants power plant siteCalifornia had made its intent to restructure known since the release of its “Blue Book” in 1994, power plant

  14. Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, L; Hobbs, Benjamin F; Norman, C S

    the social cost of carbon abatement by as much as 50%? in this setting with risk neutral investors1. Delay can lead to investment in dirty technology in hopes that future policies will favor existing coal plants, or to support of lobbying efforts designed... regulation with auctioned permits, and they hedge against that eventuality in their capacity expansion choices by investing in the relatively clean gas-turbine technology. Figure 3: Effect of risk aversion on capacity decisions, grandfathered emission...

  15. A study of optimal automotive materials choice given market and regulatory uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cirincione, Robert Joseph

    2008-01-01

    This present thesis hypothesized that the increasing demand for fuel-efficient vehicles, recently updated Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation, and volatile U.S. sales markets may foreshadow a shift in the ...

  16. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/INITIAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    September 23-29, 1991, meeting, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) adopted Amendment 20 OF A REGULATORY AMENDMENT TO DELAY THE 1992 DIRECTED FISHERY FOR GROUNDFISH WITH TRAWL GEAR IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AREA SUMMARY During 1991, the Secretary of Commerce (Secretary) took

  17. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Proceedings: A Guide for Intervenors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansell, Dean

    1982-01-01

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission Proceedings: A Guide Forto both the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Atomicpower, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC or Commission)

  18. Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty Di Niu, Chen Feng, Baochun Li's utility depends not only on its bandwidth usage, but more importantly on the portion of its demand that can be made by all tenants and the cloud provider, even with the presence of demand uncertainty

  19. Dealing with Uncertainty in the Semantic Web

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Theune, Mariët

    Dealing with Uncertainty in the Semantic Web Tjitze Rienstra M.Sc. Thesis November 8, 2009. Paul van der Vet Dr. Maarten Fokkinga #12;#12;Abstract Standardizing the Semantic Web is still of the Semantic Web, are yet to be standardized. One of these is dealing with uncertainty. Like classical logic

  20. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  1. Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty Eun Sug Park Man-Suk Oh Peter Guttorp NRCSET e c provides the Center's primary funding. #12;Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty Eun Sug Park1 composition profiles, and the source contributions is the main interest in multivariate receptor modeling. Due

  2. Short communication Smooth pursuit under stimulusresponse uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bar, Moshe

    reaction times (RTs) are typically faster than choice reaction times and increase with uncertainty­R) uncertainty and reaction times (RTs): RT = a + blog2(N), where a is simple RT, b is the slope of the increase an eye velocity criterion of 1.5j sÀ 1 which was equivalent to 25% of the stimulus velocity

  3. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW FOR FISHERY PLAN AMENDMENTS TO PROHIBIT USE 2.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES 4 2.1 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.2 IMPACTS ON ENDANGERED OR THREATENED SPECIES

  4. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  5. Majorization formulation of uncertainty in quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Partovi, M. Hossein [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University, Sacramento, California 95819-6041 (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is formulated for a set of generalized measurements within the framework of majorization theory, resulting in a partial uncertainty order on probability vectors that is stronger than those based on quasientropic measures. The theorem that emerges from this formulation guarantees that the uncertainty of the results of a set of generalized measurements without a common eigenstate has an inviolable lower bound which depends on the measurement set but not the state. A corollary to this theorem yields a parallel formulation of the uncertainty principle for generalized measurements corresponding to the entire class of quasientropic measures. Optimal majorization bounds for two and three mutually unbiased bases in two dimensions are calculated. Similarly, the leading term of the majorization bound for position and momentum measurements is calculated which provides a strong statement of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in direct operational terms. Another theorem provides a majorization condition for the least-uncertain generalized measurement of a given state with interesting physical implications.

  6. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 1989 Information Digest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None,

    1989-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission 1989 Information Digest provides summary information regarding the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, its regulatory responsibilities, and areas licensed by the Commission. This is the first of an annual publication for the general use of the NRC staff and is available to the public. The Digest is divided into two parts: the first presents an overview of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the second provides data on NRC commercial nuclear reactor licensees and commercial nuclear power reactors worldwide.

  7. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission functional organization charts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-08-15

    Functional organization charts for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission offices, divisions, and branches are presented in this document.

  8. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission functional organization charts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-04-01

    Functional organization charts for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission offices, divisions, and branches are presented in this document.

  9. Techniques of analyzing the impacts of certain electric-utility ratemaking and regulatory-policy concepts. Bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1980-08-01

    This bibliography provides documentation for use by state public utility commissions and major nonregulated utilities in evaluating the applicability of a wide range of electric utility rate design and regulatory concepts in light of certain regulatory objectives. Part I, Utility Regulatory Objectives, contains 2084 citations on conservation of energy and capital; efficient use of facilities and resources; and equitable rates to electricity consumers. Part II, Rate Design Concepts, contains 1238 citations on time-of-day rates; seasonally-varying rates; cost-of-service rates; interruptible rates (including the accompanying use of load management techniques); declining block rates; and lifeline rates. Part III, Regulatory Concepts, contains 1282 references on restrictions on master metering; procedures for review of automatic adjustment clauses; prohibitions of rate or regulatory discrimination against solar, wind, or other small energy systems; treatment of advertising expenses; and procedures to protect ratepayers from abrupt termination of service.

  10. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salvatores, Massimo; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Aliberti, G.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties is a crucial step in design. The comparison of a-priori uncertainties with the target accuracies, allows to define needs and priorities for uncertainty reduction. In view of their impact, the uncertainty analysis requires a reliability assessment of the uncertainty data used. The choice of the appropriate approach and the consistency of different approaches are discussed.

  11. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Djurcic, Zelimir

    2009-01-01

    1996. [41] US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “NRC Sta? Posi-by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in a discus- sion on

  12. Regulatory Burden RFI: Revitalization of DOE's Role as a Regulatory

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on DeliciousMathematicsEnergyInterested PartiesBuildingBudgetFinancial OpportunitiesofRegulatory BurdenRFIWatchdog |

  13. Fact Sheet: DOE/National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissione...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Natural Gas Infrastructure Modernization Partnership Fact Sheet: DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility...

  14. Identification and Characterization of Prokaryotic Regulatory Networks: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary D Stormo

    2012-10-05

    We have completed our characterization of both the transcriptional regulatory network and post-transcriptional regulatory motifs in Shewanella.

  15. SU-E-T-573: The Robustness of a Combined Margin Recipe for Uncertainties During Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stroom, J; Vieira, S; Greco, C [Champalimaud Foundation, Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To investigate the variability of a safety margin recipe that combines CTV and PTV margins quadratically, with several tumor, treatment, and user related factors. Methods: Margin recipes were calculated by monte-carlo simulations in 5 steps. 1. A spherical tumor with or without isotropic microscopic was irradiated with a 5 field dose plan2. PTV: Geometric uncertainties were introduced using systematic (Sgeo) and random (sgeo) standard deviations. CTV: Microscopic disease distribution was modelled by semi-gaussian (Smicro) with varying number of islets (Ni)3. For a specific uncertainty set (Sgeo, sgeo, Smicro(Ni)), margins were varied until pre-defined decrease in TCP or dose coverage was fulfilled. 4. First, margin recipes were calculated for each of the three uncertainties separately. CTV and PTV recipes were then combined quadratically to yield a final recipe M(Sgeo, sgeo, Smicro(Ni)).5. The final M was verified by simultaneous simulations of the uncertainties.Now, M has been calculated for various changing parameters like margin criteria, penumbra steepness, islet radio-sensitivity, dose conformity, and number of fractions. We subsequently investigated A: whether the combined recipe still holds in all these situations, and B: what the margin variation was in all these cases. Results: We found that the accuracy of the combined margin recipes remains on average within 1mm for all situations, confirming the correctness of the quadratic addition. Depending on the specific parameter, margin factors could change such that margins change over 50%. Especially margin recipes based on TCP-criteria are more sensitive to more parameters than those based on purely geometric Dmin-criteria. Interestingly, measures taken to minimize treatment field sizes (by e.g. optimizing dose conformity) are counteracted by the requirement of larger margins to get the same tumor coverage. Conclusion: Margin recipes combining geometric and microscopic uncertainties quadratically are accurate under varying circumstances. However margins can change up to 50% for different situations.

  16. Regulatory Processes | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on DeliciousMathematicsEnergyInterested PartiesBuildingBudgetFinancial OpportunitiesofRegulatory BurdenRFIWatchdog

  17. Regulatory Processes | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative FuelsofProgram: Report Appendices |ProjectKnowRedox ShuttleRegister forRegulatory

  18. EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Wei

    EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN Xiaoping Du* and Wei robust design procedure that utilizes efficient methods for uncertainty analysis is developed. Different techniques used for uncertainty analysis will significantly reduce the amount of design evaluations

  19. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY Chandrashekhar M.* , Ranjan Uncertainties associated with a structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage that material uncertainties in composite structures cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can

  20. Characterization and assessment of uncertainty in San Juan Reservoir Santa Rosa Field 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Becerra, Ernesto Jose

    2005-02-17

    and posterior distributions.23 Fig. 3.5 ? Cumulative density distribution for prior information....................................24 Fig. 3.6? Graphical display of varying ranges of uncertainty in EUR estimates with time... ........................................25 TABLE 3.7 ? Volumetric EUR Decreased by 33 % of Most Likely Value ...................27 TABLE 3.8 ? Volumetric EUR Increased by 33 % of Most Likely Value.....................28 TABLE 3.9 ? Standard Deviation in Volumetric EUR Doubled...

  1. Quantifying uncertainties of a Soil-Foundation Structure-Interaction System under Seismic Excitation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tong, C

    2008-04-07

    We applied a spectrum of uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to the study of a two-dimensional soil-foundation-structure-interaction (2DSFSI) system (obtained from Professor Conte at UCSD) subjected to earthquake excitation. In the process we varied 19 uncertain parameters describing material properties of the structure and the soil. We present in detail the results for the different stages of our UQ analyses.

  2. Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmed, Taahir

    2011-08-08

    The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

  3. Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

  4. An uncertainty principle for unimodular quantum groups

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crann, Jason; Kalantar, Mehrdad E-mail: mkalanta@math.carleton.ca

    2014-08-15

    We present a generalization of Hirschman's entropic uncertainty principle for locally compact Abelian groups to unimodular locally compact quantum groups. As a corollary, we strengthen a well-known uncertainty principle for compact groups, and generalize the relation to compact quantum groups of Kac type. We also establish the complementarity of finite-dimensional quantum group algebras. In the non-unimodular setting, we obtain an uncertainty relation for arbitrary locally compact groups using the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight as the measure of uncertainty. We also show that when restricted to q-traces of discrete quantum groups, the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight reduces to the canonical entropy of the random walk generated by the state.

  5. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Guohong

    2004-09-30

    existing methods. The integrated mismatch method tends to generate smaller ranges of uncertainty than many existing methods. When starting from nonoptimal reservoir models, in some cases the integrated mismatch method is able to bracket the true reserves...

  6. Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christensen, Daniel Erik

    2012-01-01

    For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

  7. Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL] [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL] [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification is useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select an additional administrative margin to account for gap in the validation data or to conclude that the impact on the calculated bias and bias uncertainty is negligible. As a result of advances in computer programs and the evolution of cross-section covariance data, analysts can use the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools in the TSUNAMI codes to estimate the potential impact on the application-specific bias and bias uncertainty resulting from nuclides not represented in available benchmark experiments. This paper presents the application of methods described in a companion paper.

  8. Efficient Global Optimization Under Conditions of Noise and Uncertainty A Multi-Model Multi-Grid Windowing Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neumaier, Arnold

    Efficient Global Optimization Under Conditions of Noise and Uncertainty ­ A Multi-Model Multi. By understanding how noise, bias, and topographical inaccuracy in the objective function vary with model resolution into the calculation of the objective function in an optimization problem, producing noise, bias, and topo- graphical

  9. Uncertainty of Pyrometers in a Casting Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mee, D.K.; Elkins, J.E.; Fleenor, R.M.; Morrision, J.M.; Sherrill, M.W.; Seiber, L.E.

    2001-12-07

    This work has established uncertainty limits for the EUO filament pyrometers, digital pyrometers, two-color automatic pyrometers, and the standards used to certify these instruments (Table 1). If symmetrical limits are used, filament pyrometers calibrated in Production have certification uncertainties of not more than {+-}20.5 C traceable to NIST over the certification period. Uncertainties of these pyrometers were roughly {+-}14.7 C before introduction of the working standard that allowed certification in the field. Digital pyrometers addressed in this report have symmetrical uncertainties of not more than {+-}12.7 C or {+-}18.1 C when certified on a Y-12 Standards Laboratory strip lamp or in a production area tube furnace, respectively. Uncertainty estimates for automatic two-color pyrometers certified in Production are {+-}16.7 C. Additional uncertainty and bias are introduced when measuring production melt temperatures. A -19.4 C bias was measured in a large 1987 data set which is believed to be caused primarily by use of Pyrex{trademark} windows (not present in current configuration) and window fogging. Large variability (2{sigma} = 28.6 C) exists in the first 10 m of the hold period. This variability is attributed to emissivity variation across the melt and reflection from hot surfaces. For runs with hold periods extending to 20 m, the uncertainty approaches the calibration uncertainty of the pyrometers. When certifying pyrometers on a strip lamp at the Y-12 Standards Laboratory, it is important to limit ambient temperature variation (23{+-}4 C), to order calibration points from high to low temperatures, to allow 6 m for the lamp to reach thermal equilibrium (12 m for certifications below 1200 C) to minimize pyrometer bias, and to calibrate the pyrometer if error exceeds vendor specifications. A procedure has been written to assure conformance.

  10. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Ming Ye...

  11. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by...

  12. Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilist...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case...

  13. Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for void formation under irradiation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a...

  14. Uncertainties and severe-accident management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kastenberg, W.E. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States))

    1991-01-01

    Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies.

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

    2014-10-01

    The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

  16. ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SRS COMPOSITE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.; Phifer, M.

    2011-06-30

    The Composite Analysis (CA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) in 2009 (SRS CA 2009) included a simplified uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis in the CA (Smith et al. 2009b) was limited to considering at most five sources in a separate uncertainty calculation performed for each POA. To perform the uncertainty calculations in a reasonable amount of time, the analysis was limited to using 400 realizations, 2,000 years of simulated transport time, and the time steps used for the uncertainty analysis were increased from what was used in the CA base case analysis. As part of the CA maintenance plan, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) committed to improving the CA uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. The previous uncertainty analysis was constrained by the standard GoldSim licensing which limits the user to running at most four Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations (also called realizations) simultaneously. Some of the limitations on the number of realizations that could be practically run and the simulation time steps were removed by building a cluster of three HP Proliant windows servers with a total of 36 64-bit processors and by licensing the GoldSim DP-Plus distributed processing software. This allowed running as many as 35 realizations simultaneously (one processor is reserved as a master process that controls running the realizations). These enhancements to SRNL computing capabilities made uncertainty analysis: using 1000 realizations, using the time steps employed in the base case CA calculations, with more sources, and simulating radionuclide transport for 10,000 years feasible. In addition, an importance screening analysis was performed to identify the class of stochastic variables that have the most significant impact on model uncertainty. This analysis ran the uncertainty model separately testing the response to variations in the following five sets of model parameters: (a) K{sub d} values (72 parameters for the 36 CA elements in sand and clay), (b) Dose Parameters (34 parameters), (c) Material Properties (20 parameters), (d) Surface Water Flows (6 parameters), and (e) Vadose and Aquifer Flow (4 parameters). Results provided an assessment of which group of parameters is most significant in the dose uncertainty. It was found that K{sub d} and the vadose/aquifer flow parameters, both of which impact transport timing, had the greatest impact on dose uncertainty. Dose parameters had an intermediate level of impact while material properties and surface water flows had little impact on dose uncertainty. Results of the importance analysis are discussed further in Section 7 of this report. The objectives of this work were to address comments received during the CA review on the uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate an improved methodology for CA uncertainty calculations as part of CA maintenance. This report partially addresses the LFRG Review Team issue of producing an enhanced CA sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This is described in Table 1-1 which provides specific responses to pertinent CA maintenance items extracted from Section 11 of the SRS CA (2009). As noted above, the original uncertainty analysis looked at each POA separately and only included the effects from at most five sources giving the highest peak doses at each POA. Only 17 of the 152 CA sources were used in the original uncertainty analysis and the simulation time was reduced from 10,000 to 2,000 years. A major constraint on the original uncertainty analysis was the limitation of only being able to use at most four distributed processes. This work expanded the analysis to 10,000 years using 39 of the CA sources, included cumulative dose effects at downstream POAs, with more realizations (1,000) and finer time steps. This was accomplished by using the GoldSim DP-Plus module and the 36 processors available on a new windows cluster. The last part of the work looked at the contribution to overall uncertainty from the main categories of uncertainty variables: K{sub d}s, dose parameters, flow parameters, and material propertie

  17. Regularizing future cosmological singularities with varying speed of light

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    F. Shojai; A. Shojai; M. Sanati

    2015-07-09

    Cosmological models may result in future singularities. We show that, in the framework of dynamical varying speed of light theories, it is possible to regularize those singularities.

  18. Kernel Carpentry for Online Regression using Randomly Varying Coefficient Model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edakunni, Narayanan U.; Schaal, Stefan; Vijayakumar, Sethu

    2006-01-01

    We present a Bayesian formulation of locally weighted learning (LWL) using the novel concept of a randomly varying coefficient model. Based on this

  19. Regulatory Requirements | The Ames Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMassR&D100 Winners * ImpactsandRegardingRegistration PrintRegulatoryNUCLEARRegulatory

  20. Ultrasonic liquid-level detector for varying temperature and pressure environments

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Anderson, R.L.; Miller, G.N.

    1981-10-26

    An ultrasonic liquid level detector for use in varying temperature and pressure environments, such as a pressurized water nuclear reactor vessel, is provided. The detector employs ultrasonic extensional and torsional waves launched in a multiplexed alternating sequence into a common sensor. The sensor is a rectangular cross section stainless steel rod which extends into the liquid medium whose level is to be detected. The sensor temperature derived from the extensional wave velocity measurements is used to compensate for the temperature dependence of the torsional wave velocity measurements which are also level dependent. The torsional wave velocity measurements of a multiple reflection sensor then provide a measurement of liquid level over a range of several meters with a small uncertainty over a temperature range of 20 to 250/sup 0/C and pressures up to 15 MPa.

  1. Environmental regulatory update table, July 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-08-01

    This Environmental Regulatory Update Table (July 1991) provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  2. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, December 1989

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlbert, L.M.; Langston, M.E. ); Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S. )

    1990-01-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  3. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, December 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-01-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  4. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, September 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-10-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  5. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-12-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  6. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, October 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-11-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  7. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, August 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M., Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1991-09-01

    This Environmental Regulatory Update Table (August 1991) provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  8. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, October 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Noghrei-Nikbakht, P.A.; Salk, M.S.

    1990-11-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  9. Regulatory Policy Guide/Game Concept Paper

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Driving Ratepayer-Funded Efficiency through Regulatory Policies Working Group

    2011-09-01

    Proposes a new resource for utility regulators to plot a course through regulatory options available to surmount barriers to aggressive and sustained utility investment in energy efficiency programs.

  10. Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    References Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap featured on NREL Now Texas Legal Review GRR 3rd Quarter - Stakeholder Update Meeting more Group members (12) Managers: Kyoung Recent...

  11. Seamless Transport Policy: Institutional and Regulatory Aspects...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Seamless Transport Policy: Institutional and Regulatory Aspects of Inter-Modal Coordination Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Seamless Transport Policy:...

  12. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Integrated Strategy for Spent...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Obama pursues alternatives to Yucca Mountain * DOE motion to withdraw in March 2010 * Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future Nuclear Regulatory Commission's...

  13. EAC Recommendations Regarding Emerging and Alternative Regulatory...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Tools to Assist in Analysis (September 2014) EAC Recommendations Regarding Emerging and Alternative Regulatory Models and Modeling Tools to Assist in Analysis (September 2014)...

  14. REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL - WORK PLANNING FORMAT: Natural...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    FORMAT: Natural Gas Use in Transportation REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL - WORK PLANNING FORMAT: Natural Gas Use in Transportation RCC Workplan NGV.PDF More Documents &...

  15. Quantifying the Objective Cost of Uncertainty in Complex Dynamical Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yoon, Byung-Jun

    in translational genomics. Index Terms Mean objective cost of uncertainty (MOCU), objective-based uncertaintyQuantifying the Objective Cost of Uncertainty in Complex Dynamical Systems Byung-Jun Yoon, Senior quantifies the uncertainty in a given system based on the expected increase of the operational cost

  16. Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guibas, Leonidas J.

    Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1 , David Hsu2 , Hanna Kurniawati2 uncertainty during planning. We in- troduce the notion of a bounded uncertainty roadmap (BURM) and use, and it is not much slower than classic probabilistic roadmap planning algorithms, which ignore uncertainty

  17. Cuton, cutoff transition of sound in slowly varying flow ducts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eindhoven, Technische Universiteit

    Cut­on, cut­off transition of sound in slowly varying flow ducts Sjoerd W. Rienstra 19­walled duct with irrotational isentropic mean flow is studied. The usual turning point behaviour was found. 1 Introduction The exact multiple scale solution for sound propagation in a slowly varying lined flow duct

  18. On the modeling of time-varying delays 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shah, Chirag Laxmikant

    2004-09-30

    This thesis is an effort to develop generalized dynamic models for systems with time-varying time delays. Unlike the simple time-delay model characterized by a transportation lag in the case of a fixed time delay, time-varying delays exhibit quite...

  19. On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vijay

    On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability Vijay Gupta Department of Electrical control algorithm for the situation when the processor resource availability is time-varying. The basic the processing resources available at every time step. Thus, the system evolves as a discrete time hybrid system

  20. Time-Varying Stochastic Turbulence Model Curtis R. Vogela

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vogel, Curtis

    Time-Varying Stochastic Turbulence Model Curtis R. Vogela aDepartment of Mathematical Sciences for time-varying turbulence. The model can be viewed as a linearization of the Navier-Stokes equation, with deterministic drift and diffusion terms, plus an additional stochastic driving term. Fixed-time realizations

  1. Time varying voltage combustion control and diagnostics sensor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chorpening, Benjamin T. (Morgantown, WV); Thornton, Jimmy D. (Morgantown, WV); Huckaby, E. David (Morgantown, WV); Fincham, William (Fairmont, WV)

    2011-04-19

    A time-varying voltage is applied to an electrode, or a pair of electrodes, of a sensor installed in a fuel nozzle disposed adjacent the combustion zone of a continuous combustion system, such as of the gas turbine engine type. The time-varying voltage induces a time-varying current in the flame which is measured and used to determine flame capacitance using AC electrical circuit analysis. Flame capacitance is used to accurately determine the position of the flame from the sensor and the fuel/air ratio. The fuel and/or air flow rate (s) is/are then adjusted to provide reduced flame instability problems such as flashback, combustion dynamics and lean blowout, as well as reduced emissions. The time-varying voltage may be an alternating voltage and the time-varying current may be an alternating current.

  2. U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Revision 1 February 1996

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Eric E.

    U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Revision 1 February 1996 REGULATORY GUIDE OFFICE OF NUCLEAR, ADM, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washing- ton, DC 20555-0001. The guides ar REGULATORY RESEARCH REGULATORY GUIDE 8.29 (Draft was issued as DG-8012) INSTRUCTION CONCERNING RISKS FROM

  3. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission January 8, 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    energy market crisis of 2000-2001 today by approving the $18 million settlement agreement between EnronFederal Energy Regulatory Commission FACT SHEET January 8, 2008 Enron-Snohomish PUD No.1 Docket No.FERC.gov The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission took another step in resolving the issues surrounding the Western

  4. Mapping and simulating systematics due to spatially-varying observing conditions in DES Science Verification data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leistedt, B; Elsner, F; Benoit-Lévy, A; Amara, A; Bauer, A H; Becker, M R; Bonnett, C; Bruderer, C; Busha, M T; Kind, M Carrasco; Chang, C; Crocce, M; da Costa, L N; Gaztanaga, E; Huff, E M; Lahav, O; Palmese, A; Percival, W J; Refregier, A; Ross, A J; Rozo, E; Rykoff, E S; Sánchez, C; Sadeh, I; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Sobreira, F; Suchyta, E; Swanson, M E C; Wechsler, R H; Abdalla, F B; Allam, S; Banerji, M; Bernstein, G M; Bernstein, R A; Bertin, E; Bridle, S L; Brooks, D; Buckley-Geer, E; Burke, D L; Capozzi, D; Rosell, A Carnero; Carretero, J; Cunha, C E; D'Andrea, C B; DePoy, D L; Desai, S; Diehl, H T; Doel, P; Eifler, T F; Evrard, A E; Neto, A Fausti; Flaugher, B; Fosalba, P; Frieman, J; Gerdes, D W; Gruen, D; Gruendl, R A; Gutierrez, G; Honscheid, K; James, D J; Jarvis, M; Kent, S; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Li, T S; Lima, M; Maia, M A G; March, M; Marshall, J L; Martini, P; Melchior, P; Miller, C J; Miquel, R; Nichol, R C; Nord, B; Ogando, R; Plazas, A A; Reil, K; Romer, A K; Roodman, A; Sanchez, E; Santiago, B; Scarpine, V; Schubnell, M; Smith, R C; Soares-Santos, M; Tarle, G; Thaler, J; Thomas, D; Vikram, V; Walker, A R; Wester, W; Zhang, Y; Zuntz, J

    2015-01-01

    Spatially-varying depth and characteristics of observing conditions, such as seeing, airmass, or sky background, are major sources of systematic uncertainties in modern galaxy survey analyses, in particular in deep multi-epoch surveys. We present a framework to extract and project these sources of systematics onto the sky, and apply it to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to map the observing conditions of the Science Verification (SV) data. The resulting distributions and maps of sources of systematics are used in several analyses of DES SV to perform detailed null tests with the data, and also to incorporate systematics in survey simulations. We illustrate the complementarity of these two approaches by comparing the SV data with the BCC-UFig, a synthetic sky catalogue generated by forward-modelling of the DES SV images. We analyse the BCC-UFig simulation to construct galaxy samples mimicking those used in SV galaxy clustering studies. We show that the spatially-varying survey depth imprinted in the observed gala...

  5. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Phase I Status and Initial Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Friederike Bostelmann; Kostadin Ivanov

    2014-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. One way to address the uncertainties in the HTGR analysis tools are to assess the sensitivity of critical parameters (such as the calculated maximum fuel temperature during loss of coolant accidents) to a few important input uncertainties. The input parameters were identified by engineering judgement in the past but are today typically based on a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT) process. The input parameters can also be derived from sensitivity studies and are then varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, there is often no easy way to compensate for these uncertainties. In engineering system design, a common approach for addressing performance uncertainties is to add compensating margins to the system, but with passive properties credited it is not so clear how to apply it in the case of modular HTGR heat removal path. Other more sophisticated uncertainty modelling approaches, including Monte Carlo analysis, have also been proposed and applied. Ideally one wishes to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Therefore some safety analysis calculations may use a mixture of these approaches for different parameters depending upon the particular requirements of the analysis problem involved. Sensitivity analysis can for example be used to provide information as part of an uncertainty analysis to determine best estimate plus uncertainty results to the required confidence level. In order to address uncertainty propagation in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) [6] that officially started in 2013. Although this project focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements, many lessons can be learned from the LWR community and the significant progress already made towards a consistent methodology uncertainty analysis. In the case of LWRs the NRC has already in 1988 amended 10 CFR 50.46 to allow best-estimate (plus uncertainties) calculations of emergency core cooling system performance. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also established an Expert Group on "Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling" which finally led to the definition of the "Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" [7]. The CRP on HTGR UAM will follow as far as possible the on-going OECD Light Water Reactor UAM benchmark activity.

  6. Petri Net Modelling of Biological Regulatory Claudine Chaouiya a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Provence Aix-Marseille I, Université de

    Petri Net Modelling of Biological Regulatory Networks Claudine Chaouiya a Elisabeth Remy b Denis, France Abstract The complexity of biological regulatory networks often defies the intuition insight in their dynamical properties. One qualitative approach consists in modelling regulatory networks

  7. Quantification of margins and uncertainty for risk-informed decision analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alvin, Kenneth Fredrick

    2010-09-01

    QMU stands for 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties'. QMU is a basic framework for consistency in integrating simulation, data, and/or subject matter expertise to provide input into a risk-informed decision-making process. QMU is being applied to a wide range of NNSA stockpile issues, from performance to safety. The implementation of QMU varies with lab and application focus. The Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program develops validated computational simulation tools to be applied in the context of QMU. QMU provides input into a risk-informed decision making process. The completeness aspect of QMU can benefit from the structured methodology and discipline of quantitative risk assessment (QRA)/probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In characterizing uncertainties it is important to pay attention to the distinction between those arising from incomplete knowledge ('epistemic' or systematic), and those arising from device-to-device variation ('aleatory' or random). The national security labs should investigate the utility of a probability of frequency (PoF) approach in presenting uncertainties in the stockpile. A QMU methodology is connected if the interactions between failure modes are included. The design labs should continue to focus attention on quantifying uncertainties that arise from epistemic uncertainties such as poorly-modeled phenomena, numerical errors, coding errors, and systematic uncertainties in experiment. The NNSA and design labs should ensure that the certification plan for any RRW is supported by strong, timely peer review and by an ongoing, transparent QMU-based documentation and analysis in order to permit a confidence level necessary for eventual certification.

  8. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol, UK Michel1.tex. 1 Introduction This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical

  9. Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty Ioanna Ioannou, Charalambos D. Charalambous and Sergey Loyka Abstract--Outage probability of a class of block-fading (MIMO) channels outage probability defined as min (over the input distribution) -max (over the channel distribution class

  10. Time Crystals from Minimum Time Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mir Faizal; Mohammed M. Khalil; Saurya Das

    2014-12-29

    Motivated by the Generalized Uncertainty Principle, covariance, and a minimum measurable time, we propose a deformation of the Heisenberg algebra, and show that this leads to corrections to all quantum mechanical systems. We also demonstrate that such a deformation implies a discrete spectrum for time. In other words, time behaves like a crystal.

  11. Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Draper, David

    problems 1 #12;Outline Two case studies, both involving risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal methods has better repeated-sampling properties than maximum likelihood. -- Several (standard) fluid dynamics: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and inverse problems 2 #12;Case Study 1: GESAMAC Nuclear fission

  12. Nuclear power expansion: thinking about uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holt, Lynne; Sotkiewicz, Paul; Berg, Sanford

    2010-06-15

    Nuclear power is one of many options available to achieve reduced carbon dioxide emissions. The real-option value model can help explain the uncertainties facing prospective nuclear plant developers in developing mitigation strategies for the development, construction, and operation of new nuclear plants. (author)

  13. Coping with uncertainties of mercury regulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reich, K.

    2006-09-15

    The thermometer is rising as coal-fired plants cope with the uncertainties of mercury regulation. The paper deals with a diagnosis and a suggested cure. It describes the state of mercury emission rules in the different US states, many of which had laws or rules in place before the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) was promulgated.

  14. Dealing with Uncertainties During Heat Exchanger Design 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Polley, G. T.; Pugh, S. J.

    2001-01-01

    Over the last thirty years much progress has been made in heat exchanger design methodology. Even so, the design engineer still has to deal with a great deal of uncertainty. Whilst the methods used to predict heat transfer coefficients are now quite...

  15. Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty The Challenge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitton, Mary C.

    Roadmap (SMR), a new motion planning framework that explicitly considers uncertainty in robot motion approach. Our framework builds on the highly successful approach used in Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRMs of discrete states is selected in the state space, and a roadmap is built that represents their collision

  16. CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES Stephen E. Schwartz http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html December 4, 2001 Updated, March 4, 2002 #12;OUTLINE · Overview of the Earth climate system · Increased concentrations of "greenhouse gases" · Radiative forcing of climate change · Climate system response

  17. Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remotesensing Classification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remote­sensing Classification Frans J.M. van der Wel Utrecht analysis of remotely­sensed data aims at acquiring insight as to the stability of possible classifications for an overwhelming flow of data on the appearance and condition of our planet. The data yielded by remote sensing can

  18. COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cambridge, University of

    COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST CONTROL OF TURBOCHARGED DIESEL ENGINES arose during the model validation for a turbocharged diesel engine (cf. Sections 2 and 3). Mismatches PROBLEM The plant to be controlled is a turbocharged pas- senger car diesel engine equipped with exhaust

  19. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  20. SOIL MICROBIOLOGY Resource Use of Soilborne Streptomyces Varies with Location,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, David D.

    SOIL MICROBIOLOGY Resource Use of Soilborne Streptomyces Varies with Location, Phylogeny in prairie soils. Resource use patterns were highly variable among Streptomyces isolates and were soils less than 1 m apart differed significantly in their ability to use resources, indicating

  1. Efficiency Enhancement in a Tapered Free Electron Laser by Varying...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    a Tapered Free Electron Laser by Varying the Electron Beam Radius Energy extraction efficiency of a free electron laser (FEL) can be increased when the undulator is tapered after...

  2. Tax Incidence Varies Across the Price Distribution Jeffrey M. Perloff*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    , CA 94720-3310 #12;Tax Incidence Varies Across the Price Distribution Standard treatments of tax pass a generic good at marginal cost: p = m. A branded-good manufacturer--a dominant firm--sells its

  3. Neutrino spin-flavor oscillations in rapidly varying magnetic fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maxim Dvornikov

    2006-11-13

    The general formalism for the description of neutrino oscillations in arbitrary rapidly varying external fields is elaborated. We obtain the new effective Hamiltonian which determines the evolution of the averaged neutrino wave function. The general technique is applied to the neutrino oscillations in rapidly varying magnetic fields. We evaluate the transition probabilities of the neutrino spin-flavor oscillations in magnetic fields of the Sun and compare them with the numerical solutions of the Schroedinger equation with the exact Hamiltonian.

  4. Maryland-National Capital Building Industry Association Regulatory...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Maryland-National Capital Building Industry Association Regulatory Burden RFI (Federal Register August 8, 2012) Maryland-National Capital Building Industry Association Regulatory...

  5. Regulatory Roadmap Workshop for Federal Bulk Transmission Regulations...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Regulatory Roadmapping Pgower's picture Submitted by Pgower(50) Contributor 7 August, 2014 - 14:19 One-day workshop to review regulatory roadmaps for bulk transmission. Date:...

  6. Comments from The National Association of Regulatory Utility...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Comments from The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) on the Smart Grid RFI Comments from The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners...

  7. Energy Department Issues Request For Proposal for Nuclear Regulatory...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Request For Proposal for Nuclear Regulatory Commission Licensed Facilities Procurement Energy Department Issues Request For Proposal for Nuclear Regulatory Commission Licensed...

  8. Effective Regulatory Institutions: The Regulator's Role in the...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Effective Regulatory Institutions: The Regulator's Role in the Policy Process, Including Issues of Regulatory Independence Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL...

  9. Sandia Energy - Policy and Regulatory, Codes and Standards

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Policy and Regulatory, Codes and Standards Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Solar Market Transformation Policy and Regulatory, Codes...

  10. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information Smart Grid Implementation Input US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information Smart...

  11. Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy: Recommenda...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy: Recommendations to the NRC Committee on Research Universities Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research...

  12. Long-Term Planning for Nuclear Energy Systems Under Deep Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Lance Kyungwoo

    2011-01-01

    135] U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Reactor Safety136] U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Severe AccidentUnited States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Regulation of

  13. Uncertainty in atmospheric CO? predictions from a parametric uncertainty analysis of a global carbon cycle model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holian, Gary L.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Key uncertainties in the global carbon cycle are explored with a 2-D model for the oceanic carbon sink. By calibrating the key parameters of this ocean carbon sink model to widely referenced values, it produces an average ...

  14. Regulatory analysis technical evaluation handbook. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this Handbook is to provide guidance to the regulatory analyst to promote preparation of quality regulatory analysis documents and to implement the policies of the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG/BR-0058 Rev. 2). This Handbook expands upon policy concepts included in the NRC Guidelines and translates the six steps in preparing regulatory analyses into implementable methodologies for the analyst. It provides standardized methods of preparation and presentation of regulatory analyses, with the inclusion of input that will satisfy all backfit requirements and requirements of NRC`s Committee to Review Generic Requirements. Information on the objectives of the safety goal evaluation process and potential data sources for preparing a safety goal evaluation is also included. Consistent application of the methods provided here will result in more directly comparable analyses, thus aiding decision-makers in evaluating and comparing various regulatory actions. The handbook is being issued in loose-leaf format to facilitate revisions. NRC intends to periodically revise the handbook as new and improved guidance, data, and methods become available.

  15. Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D'Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization: this includes the rationale adopted for each part of the nodalization, the user choices, and the systematic derivation and justification of any value present in the code input respect to the values as indicated in the RDS-facility and in the RDS-test. (authors)

  16. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  17. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-09-03

    Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictions of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.

  18. Uncertainty in BWR power during ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    A study was undertaken to improve our understanding of BWR conditions following the closure of main steam isolation valves and the failure of reactor trip. Of particular interest was the power during the period when the core had reached a quasi-equilibrium condition with a natural circulation flow rate determined by the water level in the downcomer. Insights into the uncertainity in the calculation of this power with sophisticated computer codes were quantified using a simple model which relates power to the principal thermal-hydraulic variables and reactivity coefficients; the latter representing the link between the thermal-hydraulics and the neutronics. Assumptions regarding the uncertainty in these variables and coefficients were then used to determine the uncertainty in power.

  19. Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Somanath, Amith

    2010-01-01

    The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

  20. Depression during exacerbations in multiple sclerosis: the importance of uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kroencke, Dawn C.; Denney, Douglas R.; Lynch, Sharon G.

    2001-08-01

    or not they were currently experiencing an exacerbation of their symptoms); (b) their level of uncertainty concerning their illness, and (c) their strategies for coping with their illness. A current exacerbation in symptoms, greater uncertainty of illness...

  1. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  2. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

  3. Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium-Size Office Building Liping Wang, Paul Mathew, Xiufeng Pang Environmental Energy Technologies Division between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced

  4. Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

    2007-07-31

    It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

  5. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given 7 refs., 2 tabs.

  6. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-09-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.

  7. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.

  8. Dynamic diagnostic and decision procedures under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baranov, V.V.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, we consider uncertainty that arises when the true state x {element_of} E is not accessible to direct observation and remains unknown. Instead, we observe some features {theta} {element_of} {Theta} that carry a certain information about the true state. This information is described by the conditional distribution P({Theta}{vert_bar}E), which we call the linkage distribution. Regarding this distribution we assume that it exists but is unknown. This leads to uncertainty with respect to states from E and the linkage distribution P({Theta}{vert_bar}E), which we denote by NEP. The substantive problem can be stated as follows: from observations of the features {theta}{element_of}{Theta} made at each time instant n = 1,2,...,recognize the state x {element_of} E, identify the linkage distribution P, and use the results of recognition and identification to choose a decision y {element_of} Y so that the decision process is optimal in some sense. State recognition is the subject of diagnostics. The uncertainty NEP thus generates a problem of diagnostics and dynamic decision making.

  9. Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2014-11-23

    We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

  10. Uncertainty and Complementarity Relations in Weak Measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arun Kumar Pati; Junde Wu

    2014-11-26

    We prove uncertainty relations that quantitatively express the impossibility of jointly sharp preparation of pre- and post-selected quantum states for measuring incompatible observables during the weak measurement. By defining a suitable operator whose average in the pre-selected quantum state gives the weak value, we show that one can have new uncertainty relations for variances of two such operators corresponding to two non-commuting observables. These generalize the recent stronger uncertainty relations that give non-trivial lower bounds for the sum of variances of two observables which fully capture the concept of incompatible observables. Furthermore, we show that weak values for two non-commuting projection operators obey a complementarity relation. Specifically, we show that for a pre-selected state if we measure a projector corresponding to an observable $A$ weakly followed by the strong measurement of another observable $B$ (for the post-selection) and, for the same pre-selected state we measure a projector corresponding to an observable $B$ weakly followed by the strong measurement of the observable $A$ (for the post-selection), then the product of these two weak values is always less than one. This shows that even though individually they are complex and can be large, their product is always bounded.

  11. Discriminative Learning of Composite Transcriptional Regulatory Modules

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedman, Nir

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 4.2 Methionine metabolism cis-Regulatory complex . . . . . . . . . . 28 4.3 Genome-wide Yeast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 6 Discussion 37 A Calculating the Likelihood's Gradient 39 B Genome-wide Yeast Location Analysis

  12. Boolean models for genetic regulatory networks 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiao, Yufei

    2009-05-15

    This dissertation attempts to answer some of the vital questions involved in the genetic regulatory networks: inference, optimization and robustness of the mathe- matical models. Network inference constitutes one of the central goals of genomic...

  13. Noise and multistability in gene regulatory networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ozbudak, Ertugrul M. (Ertugrul Mustafa), 1976-

    2004-01-01

    Proteins are the functional machinery in living cells. Proteins interact with each other and bind to DNA to form so-called gene regulatory networks and in this way regulate the level, location and timing of expression of ...

  14. Genomic Regulatory Networks, Reduction Mappings and Control 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghaffari, Noushin

    2012-07-16

    . This dissertation uses BNps, to model gene regulatory networks with an intent of designing stationary control policies (CP) for the networks to shift their dynamics toward more desirable states. Markov Chains (MC) are used to represent the PBNs and stochastic...

  15. Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    geothermal Type Term Title Author Replies Last Post sort icon Blog entry geothermal Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap featured on NREL Now Graham7781 5 Aug 2013 - 14:18 Blog entry...

  16. Regulatory roles of endothelial cells in cancer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franses, Joseph W. (Joseph Wang)

    2011-01-01

    This thesis describes the biochemical regulatory impact of endothelial cells, the cells that line all blood vessels, in cancer. Our work draws from concepts in vascular repair and tissue engineering and extends the view ...

  17. Evolution and statistics of biological regulatory networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chandalia, Juhi Kiran, 1979-

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis, I study the process of evolution of the gene regulatory network in Escherichia coli. First, I characterize the portion of the network that has been documented, and then I simulate growth of the network. In ...

  18. Uncertainties in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Advanced Biomass Feedstock Logistics Supply Chains in Kansas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cafferty, Kara G.; Searcy, Erin M.; Nguyen, Long; Spatari, Sabrina

    2014-11-01

    To meet Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) cellulosic biofuel mandates, the United States will require an annual domestic supply of about 242 million Mg of biomass by 2022. To improve the feedstock logistics of lignocellulosic biofuels and access available biomass resources from areas with varying yields, commodity systems have been proposed and designed to deliver on-spec biomass feedstocks at preprocessing “depots”, which densify and stabilize the biomass prior to long-distance transport and delivery to centralized biorefineries. The harvesting, preprocessing, and logistics (HPL) of biomass commodity supply chains thus could introduce spatially variable environmental impacts into the biofuel life cycle due to needing to harvest, move, and preprocess biomass from multiple distances that have variable spatial density. This study examines the uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of corn stover logisticsHPL within a bio-ethanol supply chain in the state of Kansas, where sustainable biomass supply varies spatially. Two scenarios were evaluated each having a different number of depots of varying capacity and location within Kansas relative to a central commodity-receiving biorefinery to test GHG emissions uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the spatial uncertainty in the HPL gate-to-gate sequence. The results show that the transport of densified biomass introduces the highest variability and contribution to the carbon footprint of the logistics HPL supply chain (0.2-13 g CO2e/MJ). Moreover, depending upon the biomass availability and its spatial density and surrounding transportation infrastructure (road and rail), logistics HPL processes can increase the variability in life cycle environmental impacts for lignocellulosic biofuels. Within Kansas, life cycle GHG emissions could range from 24 to 41 g CO2e/MJ depending upon the location, size and number of preprocessing depots constructed. However, this range can be minimized through optimizing the siting of preprocessing depots where ample rail infrastructure exists to supply biomass commodity to a regional biorefinery supply system

  19. Regulatory Burden RFI | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on DeliciousMathematicsEnergyInterested PartiesBuildingBudgetFinancial OpportunitiesofRegulatory BurdenRFI Regulatory

  20. Photon propagation in slowly varying inhomogeneous electromagnetic fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Felix Karbstein; Rashid Shaisultanov

    2015-04-23

    Starting from the Heisenberg-Euler effective Lagrangian, we determine the photon current and photon polarization tensor in inhomogeneous, slowly varying electromagnetic fields. To this end, we consider background field configurations varying in both space and time, paying special attention to the tensor structure. As a main result, we obtain compact analytical expressions for the photon polarization tensor in realistic Gaussian laser pulses, as generated in the focal spots of high-intensity lasers. These expressions are of utmost importance for the investigation of quantum vacuum nonlinearities in realistic high-intensity laser experiments.

  1. Photon propagation in slowly varying inhomogeneous electromagnetic fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karbstein, Felix

    2015-01-01

    Starting from the Heisenberg-Euler effective Lagrangian, we determine the photon current and photon polarization tensor in inhomogeneous, slowly varying electromagnetic fields. To this end, we consider background field configurations varying in both space and time, paying special attention to the tensor structure. As a main result, we obtain compact analytical expressions for the photon polarization tensor in realistic Gaussian laser pulses, as generated in the focal spots of high-intensity lasers. These expressions are of utmost importance for the investigation of quantum vacuum nonlinearities in realistic high-intensity laser experiments.

  2. Bayesiannetwork Confirmation of Software Testing Uncertainties Debra J. Richardson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ziv, Hadar

    Bayesian­network Confirmation of Software Testing Uncertainties Hadar Ziv Debra J. Richardson presentation of uncertainty in software testing. We then propose that a specific technique, known as Bayesian Belief Networks, be used to model software testing uncertainties. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian

  3. Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Faming

    Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks Xuesong Zhang,1 neural networks (BNNs) are powerful tools for providing reliable hydrologic prediction and quantifying of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  4. Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks Xuesong Zhang1-2607 Email: r-srinivasan@tamu.edu 1 #12;Abstract: Recent studies have shown that Bayesian Neural Networks of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  5. Aperture Photometry Uncertainties assuming Priors and Correlated Noise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masci, Frank

    1 Aperture Photometry Uncertainties assuming Priors and Correlated Noise F. Masci, version 2.0, 10 aperture photometry assuming (i) prior pixel-flux uncertainties are available for the image (e.g., computed photometry is being performed. One way to do this is to compare the uncertainties with the local RMS pixel

  6. UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gottgens, Hans

    UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES JOHAN F. GOTTGENS1,, BRIAN E by as much as ±48%. Uncertainty in paleoecological studies of mercury needs to be documented in order, paleoecology, sediment cores, uncertainty 1. Introduction Paleoecological studies of lakes, wetlands

  7. Uncertainty, Subjectivity, Trust and Risk: How It All Fits Together

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Uncertainty, Subjectivity, Trust and Risk: How It All Fits Together Bjørnar Solhaug1 and Ketil uncertainty, subjective, objective, trust, risk, trust management. 1 Aleatory Uncertainty vs. Epistemic be reduced by narrowing the interval and thereby making a more precise prediction. 2 Objective vs. Subjective

  8. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission functional organization charts, March 15, 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-03-01

    Functional organization charts for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission offices, divisions, and branches are presented.

  9. U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission functional organization charts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-07-01

    Functional organization charts for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission offices, divisions and branches are presented.

  10. Quantifying reactor safety margins: Part 1: An overview of the code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Levy, S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wilson, G.E.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1988-01-01

    In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems (ECCS) entitled ''Emergency Core Cooling System; Revisions to Acceptance Criteria.'' The revised rule states an alternate ECCS performance analysis, based on best-estimate methods, may be used to provide more realistic estimates of plant safety margins, provided the licensee quantifies the uncertainty of the estimates and included that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with prescribed acceptance limits. To support the revised ECCS rule, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated a method called the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. It is an auditable, traceable, and practical method for combining quantitative analyses and expert opinions to arrive at computed values of uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the CSAU evaluation methodology and its application to a postulated cold-leg, large-break loss-of-coolant accident in a Westinghouse four-loop pressurized water reactor with 17 /times/ 17 fuel. The code selected for this demonstration of the CSAU methodology was TRAC-PF1/MOD1, Version 14.3. 23 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish

    2005-05-11

    Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

  12. Regulatory Closure Options for the Residue in the Hanford Site Single-Shell Tanks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cochran, J.R. Shyr, L.J.

    1998-10-05

    Liquid, mixed, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) has been stored in 149 single-shell tanks (SSTS) located in tank farms on the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hanford Site. The DOE is developing technologies to retrieve as much remaining HLW as technically possible prior to physically closing the tank farms. In support of the Hanford Tanks Initiative, Sandia National Laboratories has addressed the requirements for the regulatory closure of the radioactive component of any SST residue that may remain after physical closure. There is significant uncertainty about the end state of each of the 149 SSTS; that is, the nature and amount of wastes remaining in the SSTS after retrieval is uncertain. As a means of proceeding in the face of these uncertainties, this report links possible end-states with associated closure options. Requirements for disposal of HLW and low-level radioactive waste (LLW) are reviewed in detail. Incidental waste, which is radioactive waste produced incidental to the further processing of HLW, is then discussed. If the low activity waste (LAW) fraction from the further processing of HLW is determined to be incidental waste, then DOE can dispose of that incidental waste onsite without a license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRC). The NRC has proposed three Incidental Waste Criteria for determining if a LAW fraction is incidental waste. One of the three Criteria is that the LAW fraction should not exceed the NRC's Class C limits.

  13. Image-Based Reconstruction of Spatially Varying Materials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidrich, Wolfgang

    Image-Based Reconstruction of Spatially Varying Materials Hendrik P. A. Lensch1 Jan Kautz1 Michael material properties is an important step towards photorealistic rendering. Many real-world objects are composed of a number of materials that often show subtle changes even within a single material. Thus

  14. SOUND PROPAGATION IN SLOWLY VARYING LINED FLOW DUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eindhoven, Technische Universiteit

    SOUND PROPAGATION IN SLOWLY VARYING LINED FLOW DUCTS OF ARBITRARY CROSS SECTION S.W. Rienstra.w.rienstra@tue.nl November 20, 2002 Abstract Sound transmission through ducts of constant cross section with a uniform expansion, where the modes are eigenfunctions of the corresponding Laplace eigenvalue problem along a duct

  15. Visualization of Very Large Oceanography Time-Varying Volume Datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laidlaw, David

    Visualization of Very Large Oceanography Time-Varying Volume Datasets Sanghun Park1 , Chandrajit://grmanet.sogang.ac.kr/~ihm Abstract. This paper presents two visualization techniques suitable for huge oceanography time generated in the field of oceanography. The model has a resolution of 1/6 degree (2160 by 960 points

  16. Mutual information in time-varying biochemical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Filipe Tostevin; Pieter Rein ten Wolde

    2010-06-16

    Cells must continuously sense and respond to time-varying environmental stimuli. These signals are transmitted and processed by biochemical signalling networks. However, the biochemical reactions making up these networks are intrinsically noisy, which limits the reliability of intracellular signalling. Here we use information theory to characterise the reliability of transmission of time-varying signals through elementary biochemical reactions in the presence of noise. We calculate the mutual information for both instantaneous measurements and trajectories of biochemical systems for a Gaussian model. Our results indicate that the same network can have radically different characteristics for the transmission of instantaneous signals and trajectories. For trajectories, the ability of a network to respond to changes in the input signal is determined by the timing of reaction events, and is independent of the correlation time of the output of the network. We also study how reliably signals on different time-scales can be transmitted by considering the frequency-dependent coherence and gain-to-noise ratio. We find that a detector that does not consume the ligand molecule upon detection can more reliably transmit slowly varying signals, while an absorbing detector can more reliably transmit rapidly varying signals. Furthermore, we find that while one reaction may more reliably transmit information than another when considered in isolation, when placed within a signalling cascade the relative performance of the two reactions can be reversed. This means that optimising signal transmission at a single level of a signalling cascade can reduce signalling performance for the cascade as a whole.

  17. Type II Migration: Varying Planet Mass and Disc Viscosity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard G. Edgar

    2008-07-03

    This paper continues an earlier study of giant planet migration, examining the effect of planet mass and disc viscosity on the migration rate. We find that the migration rate of a gap-opening planet varies systematically with the planet's mass, as predicted in our earlier work. However, the variation with disc viscosity appears to be much weaker than expected.

  18. Interactive Direct Volume Rendering of Time-Varying Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    (2563 ) dataset made up of 8-bit voxels at a frame rate of 10 Hz requires an input pipe capable have taken to support time-varying data. Our implementation is presented in Section 4. In Section 5 we address performance. In Section 6 we draw conclusions. 2 Related Work There have been numerous successful

  19. RAPID COMMUNICATION Yolk Testosterone Varies With Sex in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wade, Juli

    RAPID COMMUNICATION Yolk Testosterone Varies With Sex in Eggs of the Lizard, Anolis carolinensis), a lizard with genotypic sex determination, yolk testosterone (T) concentration is greater in male previous studies. If yolk T levels are also sex-specific before eggs are laid, a period during which

  20. On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vijay

    1 On a Control Algorithm for Time-varying Processor Availability V. Gupta Member, IEEE and F. Luo Abstract-- We propose an anytime algorithm for control when the processor resource availability is limited vector sequentially to maximally utilize the processing resources available at every time step

  1. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  2. Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (EA . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives . . . . . 15 2.2 Whale watching activity in Alaska

  3. Measurement uncertainty in surface flatness measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. L. Thang

    2011-11-29

    Flatness of a plate is a parameter has been put under consideration for long time. Factors influencing the accuracy of this parameter have been recognized and examined carefully but placed scatterringly. Beside that those reports have not been always in harmonization with Guide for expression of uncertainty measurement (GUM). Furthermore, mathematical equations describing clearly the flatness measurement have not been seen in those reports also. We have collected those influencing factors for systematic reference purpose, re-written the equation describing the profile measurement of the plate topography, and proposed an equation for flatness determination. An illustrative numerical example will be also shown.

  4. Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio

    2014-07-01

    We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

  5. Characterizing Uncertainties in Ice Particle Size Distributions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 OutreachProductswsicloudwsiclouddenDVA N C E D BGene Network ShapingDate:Characterization ofArcticUncertainties in

  6. Uncertainties in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Côté, Benoit; O'Shea, Brian W; Herwig, Falk; Pignatari, Marco; Jones, Samuel; Fryer, Chris

    2015-01-01

    We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions, for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of seven basic parameters, which are: the lower and upper mass limit of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per solar mass formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the initial mass of gas of the galaxy. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of ...

  7. Varied morphology carbon nanotubes and method for their manufacture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Wenzhi; Wen, Jian Guo; Ren, Zhi Feng

    2007-01-02

    The present invention describes the preparation of carbon nanotubes of varied morphology, catalyst materials for their synthesis. The present invention also describes reactor apparatus and methods of optimizing and controlling process parameters for the manufacture carbon nanotubes with pre-determined morphologies in relatively high purity and in high yields. In particular, the present invention provides methods for the preparation of non-aligned carbon nanotubes with controllable morphologies, catalyst materials and methods for their manufacture.

  8. Observational constraint on the varying speed of light theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jing-Zhao Qi; Ming-Jian Zhang; Wen-Biao Liu

    2014-10-07

    The varying speed of light (VSL) theory is controversial. It succeeds in explaining some cosmological problems, but on the other hand it is excluded by mainstream physics because it will shake the foundation of physics. In the present paper, we devote ourselves to test whether the speed of light is varying from the observational data of the type Ia Supernova, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation, Observational $H(z)$ data and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). We select the common form $c(t)=c_0a^n(t)$ with the contribution of dark energy and matter, where $c_0$ is the current value of speed of light, $n$ is a constant, and consequently construct a varying speed of light dark energy model (VSLDE). The combined observational data show a much trivial constraint $n=-0.0033 \\pm 0.0045$ at 68.3\\% confidence level, which indicates that the speed of light may be a constant with high significance. By reconstructing the time-variable $c(t)$, we find that the speed of light almost has no variation for redshift $z light is only in order of $10^{-2}$. We also introduce the geometrical diagnostic $Om (z)$ to show the difference between the VSLDE and $\\Lambda$CDM model. The result shows that the current data are difficult to differentiate them. All the results show that the observational data favor the constant speed of light.

  9. Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario

  10. Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties inUncertainties in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    costs and preferred technologies? #12;2 E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Focus on Innovation for technology for achieving climate change policy goals at the lowest cost, in conjunction with other mitigation1 Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties in

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Use of 2D/3D data for peak cladding temperature uncertainty studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boyack, B.E.

    1988-01-01

    In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems. The revised rule allows emergency core cooling system analysis based on best-estimate methods, provided uncertainties in the prediction of prescribed acceptance limits are quantified and reported. To support the revised rule, the NRC developed the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. Data from the 2D/3D program have been used in a demonstration of the CSAU methodology in two ways. First, the data were used to identify and quantify biases that are related to the implementation of selected correlations and models in the thermal-hydraulic systems code TRAC-PF1/MOD1 as it is used to calculate the demonstration transient, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Second, the data were used in a supportive role to provide insight into the accuracy of code calculations and to confirm conclusions that are drawn regarding specific CSAU studies. Examples are provided illustrating each of these two uses of 2D/3D data. 9 refs., 7 figs.

  13. Reaching Site Closure for Groundwater under Multiple Regulatory Agencies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glucksberg, N.; Shephard, Gene; Peters, Jay; Couture, B.

    2008-01-15

    Groundwater at the Connecticut Yankee Atomic Power Company (CYAPCO) Haddam Neck Plant (HNP) requires investigation of both radionuclides and chemical constituents in order to achieve closure. Cleanup criteria for groundwater are regulated both by federal and state agencies. These requirements vary in both numerical values as well as the duration of post remediation monitoring. The only consistent requirement is the development of a site conceptual model and an understanding of the hydrogeologic conditions that will govern contaminant transport and identify potential receptors. To successfully reach closure under each agency, it is paramount to understand the different requirements during the planning stages of the investigation. Therefore, the conceptual site model, groundwater transport mechanisms, and potential receptors must be defined. Once the hydrogeology is understood, a long term groundwater program can then be coordinated to meet each regulatory agency requirement to both terminate the NRC license and reach site closure under RCRA. Based on the different criteria, the CTDEP-LR (or RSR criteria) are not only bounding, but also requires the longest duration. As with most decommissioning efforts, regulatory attention is focused on the NRC, however, with the recent industry initiatives based on concern of tritium releases to groundwater at other plants, it is likely that the USEPA and state agencies may continue to drive site investigations. By recognizing these differences, data quality objectives can include all agency requirements, thus minimizing rework or duplicative efforts. CYAPCO intends to complete groundwater monitoring for the NRC and CTDEP-RD by July 2007. However, because shallow remediations are still being conducted, site closure under USEPA and CTDEP-LR is projected to be late 2011.

  14. Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giles, Mike

    repository and oil reservoir modelling Considerable uncertainty about porosity of rock Astronomy "Random handling uncertainty: uncertainty in modelling parameters uncertainty in geometry uncertainty in initial 30­31, 2013 4 / 41 #12;PDEs with Uncertainty Examples: Long-term climate modelling: Lots of sources

  15. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

  16. Quantum Limits of Measurements and Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masanao Ozawa

    2015-05-19

    In this paper, we show how the Robertson uncertainty relation gives certain intrinsic quantum limits of measurements in the most general and rigorous mathematical treatment. A general lower bound for the product of the root-mean-square measurement errors arising in joint measurements of noncommuting observables is established. We give a rigorous condition for holding of the standard quantum limit (SQL) for repeated measurements, and prove that if a measuring instrument has no larger root-mean-square preparational error than the root-mean-square measurement errors then it obeys the SQL. As shown previously, we can even construct many linear models of position measurement which circumvent this condition for the SQL.

  17. Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

    2011-11-30

    In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

  18. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  19. False Vacuum in the Supersymmetric Mass Varying Neutrinos Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ryo Takahashi; Morimitsu Tanimoto

    2007-11-04

    We present detailed analyses of the vacuum structure of the scalar potential in a supersymmetric Mass Varying Neutrinos model. The observed dark energy density is identified with false vacuum energy and the dark energy scale of order $(10^{-3}eV)^4$ is understood by gravitationally suppressed supersymmetry breaking scale, $F({TeV})^2/M_{Pl}$, in the model. The vacuum expectation values of sneutrinos should be tiny in order that the model works. Some decay processes of superparticles into acceleron and sterile neutrino are also discussed in the model.

  20. Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-07-11

    Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.

  1. Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-08-01

    Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.

  2. Planning Wireless Networks with Demand Uncertainty using Robust ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-03-04

    as OFDMA. Current methods for this task require a static model of the problem. However, uncertainty of data arises frequently in wireless networks, e. g., fluctuat-

  3. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01

    tax on microgrid combined heat and power adoption. JournalDG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heatUncertainty Keywords: Combined heat and power applications,

  4. Model simplification of chemical kinetic systems under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coles, Thomas Michael Kyte

    2011-01-01

    This thesis investigates the impact of uncertainty on the reduction and simplification of chemical kinetics mechanisms. Chemical kinetics simulations of complex fuels are very computationally expensive, especially when ...

  5. Decision making under epistemic uncertainty : an application to seismic design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agarwal, Anna

    2008-01-01

    The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations ...

  6. Addressing Uncertainty in Desigh Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilisti...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Tom Houston, Greg Mertz, Carl Costantino, Michael...

  7. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  8. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tovesson, F.

    2015-01-09

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  9. Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra...

  10. Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedro Crespo Del Granado

    2015-01-14

    Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy ...

  11. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tovesson, F. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  12. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Talou, Patrick Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nazarewicz, Witold University of Tennessee, Knoxville,...

  13. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its...

  14. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  15. Trawler: de novo regulatory motif discovery pipeline

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cai, Long

    Trawler: de novo regulatory motif discovery pipeline for chromatin immunoprecipitation Laurence, the fastest computational pipeline to date, to efficiently discover over-represented motifs in chromatin present the Trawler pipeline (Fig. 1a) that attempts the de novo identification of all over

  16. The regulatory battleground: A briefing for commanders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wirick, D.

    1995-12-31

    This imperfect analogy likens the history and current status of public utility regulation to a military campaign. Clearly, the relationship between regulators and utilities has not always been combative, but intermittent conflict has necessarily characterized the relationship. Nonetheless, this military analogy describes some of the elements of the history of regulation and may have implications for regulatory policy in the near term. The scene is a battlefield headquarters not far from the heat of the conflict. The commanders of regulatory units are gathered. In the distance, the low rumble of troop movements can be heard. Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seats. As you are aware, recent developments have placed regulatory forces in extreme jeopardy. Our forces are under stress, and though they continue to fight, the confusion of the current situation is beginning to take its toll. In most cases, reinforcements have been denied and our lines of logistical support have been weakened. Without effective and rapid action on our part, the regulatory battle will be lost and we will be driven from the field. Until consumers are well-enough armed to protect themselves, a process that is certainly suspect and potentially time-consuming, they will be powerless and undoubtedly victimized.

  17. Regulatory Promotion of Emergent CCS Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davies, Lincoln; Uchitel, Kirsten; Johnson, David

    2014-01-01

    Despite the growing inevitability of climate change and the attendant need for mitigation strategies, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has yet to gain much traction in the United States. Recent regulatory proposals by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), limited in scope to new-build power plants, represent the only significant policy initiative intended to mandate diffusion of CCS technology. Phase I of this Project assessed barriers to CCS deployment as prioritized by the CCS community. That research concluded that there were four primary barriers: (1) cost, (2) lack of a carbon price, (3) liability, and (4) lack of a comprehensive regulatory regime. Phase II of this Project, as presented in this Report, assesses potential regulatory models for CCS and examines where those models address the hurdles to diffusing CCS technology identified in Phase I. It concludes (1) that a CCS-specific but flexible standard, such as a technology performance standard or a very particular type of market-based regulation, likely will promote CCS diffusion, and (2) that these policies cannot work alone, but rather, should be combined with other measures, such as liability limits and a comprehensive CCS regulatory regime.

  18. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    i LBP-09-10 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 and 2) Docket No. 52-029-COL, 52-030-COL ASLBP No. 09-879-04-COL-BD01 July 8

  19. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    LBP-09-04 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of CALVERT CLIFFS 3 NUCLEAR PROJECT, LLC, and UNISTAR NUCLEAR OPERATING SERVICES, LLC (Combined This case arises from an application by UniStar Nuclear Operating Services, LLC and Calvert Cliffs 3 Nuclear

  20. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

    2012-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

  1. 15 Internal Regulatory Variables and the Design of Human Motivation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cosmides, Leda

    251 15 Internal Regulatory Variables and the Design of Human Motivation: A Computational The Next Cognitive Revolution: The Adaptationist Integration of Motivation and Cognition ............252 Internal Regulatory Variables and Motivation

  2. Motivations in romantic relationships: a regulatory focus perspective 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winterheld, Heike A.

    2005-08-29

    The present research tested whether and how regulatory focus as a motivational variable influences the ways in which people appraise, process, and react to events in romantic relationships. Regulatory focus theory distinguishes between (1) a...

  3. Regulatory Impacts for Renewable Energy Projects on Indian Lands...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Regulatory Impacts for Renewable Energy Projects on Indian Lands Webinar Regulatory Impacts for Renewable Energy Projects on Indian Lands Webinar June 24, 2015 11:00AM to 12:30PM...

  4. State Regulatory Framework Will Most Likely Result in Robust...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    State Regulatory Framework Will Most Likely Result in Robust CO2 Pipeline System, New Study Says State Regulatory Framework Will Most Likely Result in Robust CO2 Pipeline System,...

  5. Varying fine structure 'constant' and charged black holes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bekenstein, Jacob D.; Schiffer, Marcelo

    2009-12-15

    Speculation that the fine-structure constant {alpha} varies in spacetime has a long history. We derive, in 4-D general relativity and in isotropic coordinates, the solution for a charged spherical black hole according to the framework for dynamical {alpha} J. D. Bekenstein, Phys. Rev. D 25, 1527 (1982).. This solution coincides with a previously known one-parameter extension of the dilatonic black hole family. Among the notable properties of varying-{alpha} charged black holes are adherence to a 'no hair' principle, the absence of the inner (Cauchy) horizon of the Reissner-Nordstroem black holes, the nonexistence of precisely extremal black holes, and the appearance of naked singularities in an analytic extension of the relevant metric. The exteriors of almost extremal electrically (magnetically) charged black holes have simple structures which makes their influence on applied magnetic (electric) fields transparent. We rederive the thermodynamic functions of the modified black holes; the otherwise difficult calculation of the electric potential is done by a shortcut. We confirm that variability of {alpha} in the wake of expansion of the universe does not threaten the generalized second law.

  6. US Department of Energys Regulatory Negotiations Convening...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Negotiations Convening on Commercial Certification for Heating, Ventilating, Air-Conditioning, and Refrigeration Equipment US Department of Energys Regulatory Negotiations...

  7. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission functional organization charts, January 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-02-01

    Functional organization charts for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission offices, divisions, and branches are presented in this document.

  8. A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying Emission Control Technologies A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying Emission Control...

  9. Enclosure 2 DOE's Position on Dose Rate "Measurement Uncertainty"

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    system. Therefore, some knowledge of the uncertainty is important in determining the overall uncertainty and that they be used within their intended measurement range. This practice is sufficient to satisfy the nuclear safety requirements associated with the management of the containers of waste prior to disposal. The 200 mrem

  10. Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lovejoy, Shaun

    Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights Daniel Schertzer Department, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Uncertainty and error growth are crosscutting geophysical extremes. The focus is now on time-space geophysical scaling behavior: their multifractality. It is found

  11. Holographic position uncertainty and the quantum-classical transition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. L. Herzenberg

    2010-04-16

    Arguments based on general principles of quantum mechanics have suggested that a minimum length associated with Planck-scale unification may in the context of the holographic principle entail a new kind of observable uncertainty in the transverse position of macroscopically separated objects. Here, we address potential implications of such a position uncertainty for establishing an additional threshold between quantum and classical behavior.

  12. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  13. Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    1 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Reservoir Simulation Solutions, Inc. SPE 102492 #12;2 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Outline Reservoir Simulation Uncertainty, Using Surrogate Reservoir Model #12;3 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Sources

  14. Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3 (1). pp. 1, 1­27, 2003 www.atmos-chem-phys.org/acp/3/1/ Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics UncertaintiesUncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere Article Published

  15. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta

    2008-08-06

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

  16. Representing Thermal Vibrations and Uncertainty in Molecular Surfaces

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varshney, Amitabh

    in a molecule is fuzzy because of its uncertainty in protein structure determination and thermal energy because of its thermal energy. Therefore, the smooth molecular surface will also vibrate. Also in proteinRepresenting Thermal Vibrations and Uncertainty in Molecular Surfaces Chang Ha Lee and Amitabh

  17. Energy Management Problems Under Uncertainties for Grid-Connected Microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Wei

    1 Energy Management Problems Under Uncertainties for Grid-Connected Microgrids : a Chance prob- lems under uncertainties for a grid-connected microgrid. The problems are motivated by practical microgrid problems such as peak power shaving and frequency regulation. The problems require constraints

  18. September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty This appendix deals with the representation. In the section on "Uncertainties," beginning on page P-18, it describes in detail how the regional portfolio of these files is a compressed file, L24X-DW02-P.zip, containing the workbook files that Appendix L uses

  19. An entropy measure of uncertainty in vote choiceq

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gill, Jeff

    An entropy measure of uncertainty in vote choiceq Jeff Gillà University of California, Davis, Political Science, One Shield Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA Abstract We examine voters' uncertainty in the bill's language, and the bill is disingenuously entitled the ``California Civil Rights Act

  20. Utility Maximization under Model Uncertainty in Discrete Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nutz, Marcel

    Utility Maximization under Model Uncertainty in Discrete Time Marcel Nutz January 14, 2014 Abstract We give a general formulation of the utility maximization problem under nondominated model uncertainty in discrete time and show that an optimal portfolio exists for any utility function

  1. Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration -Paula Reimer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengun, Mehmet Haluk

    uncertainty · Estimated ± 1 - 2 (± 8-32 years) · Measured off-line ± 0.2 (± 2) - ok in gas counting systems.17 (lab error multiplier) #12;14C calibration uncertainties Animation: M. Blaauw #12;Constant initial 14C interpol. Too much weight on individual dates? #12;Which age-depth model? 800 cm core 9 14 C dates

  2. Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    1 Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations Vijay Gupta1 of uncertainty and complex fiscal rules in the development planning of offshore oil and gas fields which involve, Offshore Oil and Gas, Multistage Stochastic, Endogenous, Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) 1

  3. Closure for Production Planning under Power Uncertainty Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Closure for Production Planning under Power Uncertainty Project Lehigh University Pietro Belotti C the power is recovered Production occurs at reduced rate The New Uncertainty Set Requires more binary¸ agri Latifoglu Fay Li Larry Snyder Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Jim Hutton Peter Connard September

  4. Filament Estimation and Uncertainty Measures Yen-Chi Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Filament Estimation and Uncertainty Measures Yen-Chi Chen Larry Wasserman Christopher Genovese Mellon University April 21, 2014 1 / 39 #12;Outline Introduction to Filaments Filament Estimation Uncertainty Measures Future Work 2 / 39 #12;Introduction Outline Introduction to Filaments Filament Estimation

  5. Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Sharon J.

    Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

  6. A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Ken

    A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang. This method often undervalues a mining project since it ignores future price uncertainty and does not allow on metal price. This paper also demonstrates that the "reactive" approach can estimate the mine project

  7. Treatment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Planning 1 Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    attribute to lie. For example, we could specify the price of natural gas in one of the following ways: #12 with time. #12;3 Figure 2: Specification of uncertainty in natural gas price Aside: We may also apply in this figure how (a) the expected price will increase with time, and (b) the uncertainty will also increase

  8. Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LBNL-5096E Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated of California. #12;Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR

  9. Systems and methods of varying charged particle beam spot size

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Yu-Jiuan

    2014-09-02

    Methods and devices enable shaping of a charged particle beam. A modified dielectric wall accelerator includes a high gradient lens section and a main section. The high gradient lens section can be dynamically adjusted to establish the desired electric fields to minimize undesirable transverse defocusing fields at the entrance to the dielectric wall accelerator. Once a baseline setting with desirable output beam characteristic is established, the output beam can be dynamically modified to vary the output beam characteristics. The output beam can be modified by slightly adjusting the electric fields established across different sections of the modified dielectric wall accelerator. Additional control over the shape of the output beam can be excreted by introducing intentional timing de-synchronization offsets and producing an injected beam that is not fully matched to the entrance of the modified dielectric accelerator.

  10. Optical waveguide device with an adiabatically-varying width

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Watts; Michael R. (Albuquerque, NM), Nielson; Gregory N. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2011-05-10

    Optical waveguide devices are disclosed which utilize an optical waveguide having a waveguide bend therein with a width that varies adiabatically between a minimum value and a maximum value of the width. One or more connecting members can be attached to the waveguide bend near the maximum value of the width thereof to support the waveguide bend or to supply electrical power to an impurity-doped region located within the waveguide bend near the maximum value of the width. The impurity-doped region can form an electrical heater or a semiconductor junction which can be activated with a voltage to provide a variable optical path length in the optical waveguide. The optical waveguide devices can be used to form a tunable interferometer (e.g. a Mach-Zehnder interferometer) which can be used for optical modulation or switching. The optical waveguide devices can also be used to form an optical delay line.

  11. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ren, Guangming E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com; Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 ; Wang, Xingyuan E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q?>?q{sub c} and die when q?

  12. Spall behavior of cast iron with varying microstructures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plume, Gifford; Rousseau, Carl-Ernst, E-mail: rousseau@uri.edu [Mechanical Engineering, University of Rhode Island, 92 Upper College Rd., Kingston, Rhode Island 02881 (United States)

    2014-07-21

    The spall strength of cast iron with varying microstructures has been investigated using plate impact at moderate speed. Stress history measurements were made with manganin stress gauges embedded between the back face of the specimen and a low impedance polycarbonate backing. Five separate cast irons were tested. Four of these consisted of gray cast iron with graphite in flake form, with three classified as Type VII A2 and the fourth containing a bimodal distribution of Types VII A4 and VII D8. The fifth casting consisted of ductile cast iron with graphite in nodular form, classified as Type I, size class 5. The spall strength for the Type VII A2 gray cast irons varied between 40 and 370?MPa, and that of the additional gray cast iron, between 410 and 490?MPa. The spall strength of the ductile cast iron fell within the range of 0.94–1.2?GPa. It is shown that the spall strength is linked to the damage level at the spall plane, where an increased level of tensile stress is required to generate higher levels of damage. Post mortem analysis was performed on the recovered samples, revealing the graphite phase to be the primary factor governing the spall fracture of cast irons, where crack nucleation is directly correlated to the debonding of graphite from the metal matrix. The average length of graphite found within a casting is linked to the material's strength, where strength increases as a function of decreasing length. The morphology and mean free path of graphite precipitates further govern the subsequent coalescence of initiated cracks to form a complete fracture plane. In cases where graphite spacing is large, increased energy level is required to complete the fracture process. A secondary factor governing the spall fracture of cast irons has also been linked to the microstructure of the metal matrix, with pearlite yielding higher spall strengths than free ferrite.

  13. Slowly Varying Dilaton Cosmologies and Their Field Theory Duals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Awad, Adel; Das, Sumit R.; Ghosh, Archisman; Oh, Jae-Hyuk; Trivedi, Sandip P.; /Tata Inst. /Stanford U., ITP /SLAC

    2011-06-28

    We consider a deformation of the AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5} solution of IIB supergravity obtained by taking the boundary value of the dilaton to be time dependent. The time dependence is taken to be slowly varying on the AdS scale thereby introducing a small parameter {epsilon}. The boundary dilaton has a profile which asymptotes to a constant in the far past and future and attains a minimum value at intermediate times. We construct the sugra solution to first non-trivial order in {epsilon}, and find that it is smooth, horizon free, and asymptotically AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5} in the far future. When the intermediate values of the dilaton becomes small enough the curvature becomes of order the string scale and the sugra approximation breaks down. The resulting dynamics is analysed in the dual SU(N) gauge theory on S{sup 3} with a time dependent coupling constant which varies slowly. When N{epsilon} << 1, we find that a quantum adiabatic approximation is applicable, and use it to argue that at late times the geometry becomes smooth AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5} again. When N{epsilon} >> 1, we formulate a classical adiabatic perturbation theory based on coherent states which arises in the large N limit. For large values of the tHooft coupling this reproduces the supergravity results. For small 'tHooft coupling the coherent state calculations become involved and we cannot reach a definite conclusion. We argue that the final state should have a dual description which is mostly smooth AdS5 space with the possible presence of a small black hole.

  14. Measurement uncertainty of adsorption testing of desiccant materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C E; Pesaran, A A

    1988-12-01

    The technique of measurement uncertainty analysis as described in the current ANSI/ASME standard is applied to the testing of desiccant materials in SERI`s Sorption Test Facility. This paper estimates the elemental precision and systematic errors in these tests and propagates them separately to obtain the resulting uncertainty of the test parameters, including relative humidity ({plus_minus}.03) and sorption capacity ({plus_minus}.002 g/g). Errors generated by instrument calibration, data acquisition, and data reduction are considered. Measurement parameters that would improve the uncertainty of the results are identified. Using the uncertainty in the moisture capacity of a desiccant, the design engineer can estimate the uncertainty in performance of a dehumidifier for desiccant cooling systems with confidence. 6 refs., 2 figs., 8 tabs.

  15. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  16. Plant nitrogen regulatory P-PII genes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Coruzzi, Gloria M. (New York, NY); Lam, Hon-Ming (Hong Kong, HK); Hsieh, Ming-Hsiun (Woodside, NY)

    2001-01-01

    The present invention generally relates to plant nitrogen regulatory PII gene (hereinafter P-PII gene), a gene involved in regulating plant nitrogen metabolism. The invention provides P-PII nucleotide sequences, expression constructs comprising said nucleotide sequences, and host cells and plants having said constructs and, optionally expressing the P-PII gene from said constructs. The invention also provides substantially pure P-PII proteins. The P-PII nucleotide sequences and constructs of the

  17. Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation Projects

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:Financing Tool FitsProject Developsfor UCNIEnvironmentalAHRI Regulatory Burden

  18. Nuclear Safety Regulatory Framework | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURINGEnergy Bills and ReduceNovember 2014 Postings(NSUF) GatewayNuclear SafetyRegulatory

  19. Regulatory Burden RFI | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on DeliciousMathematicsEnergyInterested PartiesBuildingBudgetFinancial OpportunitiesofRegulatory Burden

  20. Paducah Site Regulatory Documents | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on DeliciousMathematicsEnergyInterested PartiesBuilding energy codes havePUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONPaducah SiteRegulatory

  1. Plant nitrogen regulatory P-PII polypeptides

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Coruzzi, Gloria M.; Lam, Hon-Ming; Hsieh, Ming-Hsiun

    2004-11-23

    The present invention generally relates to plant nitrogen regulatory PII gene (hereinafter P-PII gene), a gene involved in regulating plant nitrogen metabolism. The invention provides P-PII nucleotide sequences, expression constructs comprising said nucleotide sequences, and host cells and plants having said constructs and, optionally expressing the P-PII gene from said constructs. The invention also provides substantially pure P-PII proteins. The P-PII nucleotide sequences and constructs of the invention may be used to engineer organisms to overexpress wild-type or mutant P-PII regulatory protein. Engineered plants that overexpress or underexpress P-PII regulatory protein may have increased nitrogen assimilation capacity. Engineered organisms may be used to produce P-PII proteins which, in turn, can be used for a variety of purposes including in vitro screening of herbicides. P-PII nucleotide sequences have additional uses as probes for isolating additional genomic clones having the promoters of P-PII gene. P-PII promoters are light- and/or sucrose-inducible and may be advantageously used in genetic engineering of plants.

  2. Time-varying Spectral Analysis in Neurophysiological Time Series Using Hilbert

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitcher, Brandon

    ability to detect time-varying coherence and phase properties. Key words: Coherence, electromyographic

  3. SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL REACTOR CRITICALS FOR BURNUP CREDIT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radulescu, Georgeta [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL; Wagner, John C [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide insights into the neutronic similarities that may exist between a generic cask containing typical spent nuclear fuel assemblies and commercial reactor critical (CRC) state-points. Forty CRC state-points from five pressurized-water reactors were selected for the study and the type of CRC state-points that may be applicable for validation of burnup credit criticality safety calculations for spent fuel transport/storage/disposal systems are identified. The study employed cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the TSUNAMI set of tools in the SCALE code system as a means to investigate system similarity on an integral and nuclide-reaction specific level. The results indicate that, except for the fresh fuel core configuration, all analyzed CRC state-points are either highly similar, similar, or marginally similar to a generic cask containing spent nuclear fuel assemblies with burnups ranging from 10 to 60 GWd/MTU. Based on the integral system parameter, C{sub k}, approximately 30 of the 40 CRC state-points are applicable to validation of burnup credit in the generic cask containing typical spent fuel assemblies with burnups ranging from 10 to 60 GWd/MTU. The state-points providing the highest similarity (C{sub k} > 0.95) were attained at or near the end of a reactor cycle. The C{sub k} values are dominated by neutron reactions with major actinides and hydrogen, as the sensitivities of these reactions are much higher than those of the minor actinides and fission products. On a nuclide-reaction specific level, the CRC state-points provide significant similarity for most of the actinides and fission products relevant to burnup credit. A comparison of energy-dependent sensitivity profiles shows a slight shift of the CRC K{sub eff} sensitivity profiles toward higher energies in the thermal region as compared to the K{sub eff} sensitivity profile of the generic cask. Parameters representing coverage of the application by the CRCs on an energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction specific level (i.e., effectiveness of the CRCs for validating the cross sections as used in the application) were also examined. Based on the CRCs with C{sub k} > 0.8 and an assumed relative standard deviation for uncovered covariance data of 25%, the relative standard deviation of K{sub eff} due to uncovered sensitivity data varies from 0.79% to 0.95% for cask burnups ranging from 10 to 60 GWd/MTU. As expected, this uncertainty in K{sub eff} is largely dominated by noncoverage of sensitivities from major actinides and hydrogen. The contributions from fission products and minor actinides are very small and comparable to statistical uncertainties in K{sub eff} results. These results (again, assuming a 25% uncertainty for uncovered covariance data) indicate that there could be approximately 1% uncertainty in the calculated application K{sub eff} due to incomplete neutronic testing (validation) of the software by the CRCs. However, this conclusion also assumes all other uncertainties in the complex CRC configurations (e.g., isotopic compositions of burned fuel, operation history, data) are well known. Thus, an evaluation of the uncertainties in the CRC configurations is needed prior to the use of CRCs for code validation (i.e., quantifying code bias and bias uncertainty).

  4. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  5. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  6. A recipe for EFT uncertainty quantification in nuclear physics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. J. Furnstahl; D. R. Phillips; S. Wesolowski

    2014-12-16

    The application of effective field theory (EFT) methods to nuclear systems provides the opportunity to rigorously estimate the uncertainties originating in the nuclear Hamiltonian. Yet this is just one source of uncertainty in the observables predicted by calculations based on nuclear EFTs. We discuss the goals of uncertainty quantification in such calculations and outline a recipe to obtain statistically meaningful error bars for their predictions. We argue that the different sources of theory error can be accounted for within a Bayesian framework, as we illustrate using a toy model.

  7. Data-Driven Low-Dimensional Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Airfoil Icing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DeGennaro, Anthony M; Martinelli, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    The formation and accretion of ice on the leading edge of an airfoil can be detrimental to aerodynamic performance. Furthermore, the geometric shape of leading edge ice profiles can vary significantly depending on a wide range of physical parameters, which can translate into a wide variability in aerodynamic performance. The purpose of this work is to explore the variability in airfoil aerodynamic performance that results from variability in leading edge ice shape profile. First, we demonstrate how to identify a low-dimensional set of parameters that governs ice shape from a database of ice shapes using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Then, we investigate the effects of uncertainty in the POD coefficients. This is done by building a global response surface surrogate using Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). To construct this surrogate efficiently, we use adaptive sparse grid sampling of the POD parameter space. We then analyze the data from a statistical standpoint.

  8. The Uncertainty Principle in Software Engineering Hadar Ziv Debra J. Richardson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ziv, Hadar

    ­ plore in detail uncertainty in software testing, includ­ ing test planning, test enactment, error principles, software testing, uncertainty mod­ eling, Bayesian networks INTRODUCTION Today's software), followed by more detailed expositions of uncertainty in software testing, including test planning, test

  9. Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics with application to remote sensing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aires, Filipe

    Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics with application to remote sensing for many inversion problems in remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: remote sensing, uncertainty, neural

  10. Cosmological parameter uncertainties from SALT-II type Ia supernova light curve models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mosher, J.; Sako, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 South 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Guy, J.; Astier, P.; Betoule, M.; El-Hage, P.; Pain, R.; Regnault, N. [LPNHE, CNRS/IN2P3, Université Pierre et Marie Curie Paris 6, Universié Denis Diderot Paris 7, 4 place Jussieu, F-75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Kessler, R.; Frieman, J. A. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Marriner, J. [Center for Particle Astrophysics, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, P.O. Box 500, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Biswas, R.; Kuhlmann, S. [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Lemont, IL 60439 (United States); Schneider, D. P., E-mail: kessler@kicp.chicago.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)

    2014-09-20

    We use simulated type Ia supernova (SN Ia) samples, including both photometry and spectra, to perform the first direct validation of cosmology analysis using the SALT-II light curve model. This validation includes residuals from the light curve training process, systematic biases in SN Ia distance measurements, and a bias on the dark energy equation of state parameter w. Using the SN-analysis package SNANA, we simulate and analyze realistic samples corresponding to the data samples used in the SNLS3 analysis: ?120 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, ?255 Sloan Digital Sky Survey SNe Ia (z < 0.4), and ?290 SNLS SNe Ia (z ? 1). To probe systematic uncertainties in detail, we vary the input spectral model, the model of intrinsic scatter, and the smoothing (i.e., regularization) parameters used during the SALT-II model training. Using realistic intrinsic scatter models results in a slight bias in the ultraviolet portion of the trained SALT-II model, and w biases (w {sub input} – w {sub recovered}) ranging from –0.005 ± 0.012 to –0.024 ± 0.010. These biases are indistinguishable from each other within the uncertainty; the average bias on w is –0.014 ± 0.007.

  11. Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Veen, Barry D.

    Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis College _____________ Proposed Substitution _______________________________ _____________ Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis (3 credits): Industrial and Systems Engineering 574 Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis

  12. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  13. Time-Dependent Utility and Action Under Uncertainty Eric Horvitz

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Time-Dependent Utility and Action Under Uncertainty Eric Horvitz Palo Alto Laboratory Rockwell systems Doyle, 1988, Horvitz, 1988, Boddy and Dean, 1989, Russell and Wefald, 1989, Breese and Horvitz

  14. Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

    2005-01-01

    (cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

  15. The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin

    2004-09-30

    analysis. The results were compared with the uncertainty predicted using only static data. We also investigated approaches for best selecting a smaller number of models from a larger set of realizations to be history matched for quantification...

  16. History matching and uncertainty quantificiation using sampling method 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Xianlin

    2009-05-15

    Uncertainty quantification involves sampling the reservoir parameters correctly from a posterior probability function that is conditioned to both static and dynamic data. Rigorous sampling methods like Markov Chain Monte ...

  17. Uncertainty of microwave radiative transfer computations in rain 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Sung Wook

    2009-06-02

    Currently, the effect of the vertical resolution on the brightness temperature (BT) has not been examined in depth. The uncertainty of the freezing level (FL) retrieved using two different satellites' data is large. Various ...

  18. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01

    ment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of2007) and the 2007 Real Options Conference in Berkeley, CA,distributed generation, real options JEL Codes: D81, Q40

  19. Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-

    2004-01-01

    This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...

  20. Infill location determination and assessment of corresponding uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Senel, Ozgur

    2009-05-15

    , generated probabilistic distributions of incremental field production and, finally, used descriptive statistical analysis to evaluate results. I quantified the uncertainty associated with infill location selection in terms of incremental field production...

  1. Data-driven models for uncertainty and behavior

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vishal, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01

    The last decade has seen an explosion in the availability of data. In this thesis, we propose new techniques to leverage these data to tractably model uncertainty and behavior. Specifically, this thesis consists of three ...

  2. Managing Sensor Data Uncertainty: a data quality approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Servigne, Sylvie

    and users with data quality information. Keywords: Data Quality, Sensor Data, Metadata, EnvironmentalManaging Sensor Data Uncertainty: a data quality approach Claudia C. Gutiérrez Rodríguez (I3S improvement, sensors infrastructure actually supports many current and promising environmental applications

  3. Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

  4. Control of systems subject to uncertainty and constraints 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Villota Cerna, Elizabeth Roxana

    2009-05-15

    Engineering iii ABSTRACT Control of Systems Subject to Uncertainty and Constraints. (December 2007) Elizabeth Roxana Villota Cerna, B.S., Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria; M.S., Pontiflcia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro Chair of Advisory Committee...

  5. Maintaining artificial recharge ponds under uncertainty: a probabilistic approach for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat

    Maintaining artificial recharge ponds under uncertainty: a probabilistic approach for engineering surface ponds (SP) Clogging What is clogging? Mathematical models for clogging Risk formulation Carlo analysis Conclusions #12;Surface ponds (SP) collect selected external water (e.g. regenerated

  6. HANDLING UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCTION ACTIVITY CONTROL USING PROACTIVE SIMULATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    HANDLING UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCTION ACTIVITY CONTROL USING PROACTIVE SIMULATION Olivier CARDIN, Production Control, Manufacturing Systems, Proactive, Real-time. 1. INTRODUCTION In today's complex of a product. Real-word planning and scheduling problems are generally complex, constrained and multi

  7. Phoenix: A Reactor Burnup Code With Uncertainty Quantification 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spence, Grant R

    2014-12-15

    , and will continue to be, an area of great interest in nuclear research. Several methods have been developed to simulate reactor burnup; however, quantifying the uncertainty in reactor burnup simulations is in its relative infancy. This research developed a...

  8. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reinert, Joshua M

    2005-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...

  9. Some methods of estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Milan Batista

    2011-07-20

    In the paper four methods for estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction are discussed: total differential method, extreme values method, Gauss statistical method, and Monte Carlo simulation method. The methods are described and the program solutions are given.

  10. Do the uncertainty relations really have crucial significances for physics ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spiridon Dumitru

    2010-05-03

    It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR) have crucial significances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.

  11. Induced Matter Theory & Heisenberg-like Uncertainty Relations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    James R. Bogan

    2005-04-01

    We show that a differential variant of the Heisenberg uncertainty relations emerges naturally from induced matter theory, as a sum of line elements in both momentum and Minkowski spaces.

  12. Uncertainty quantification using multiscale methods for porous media flows 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dostert, Paul Francis

    2009-05-15

    In this dissertation we discuss numerical methods used for uncertainty quantifi- cation applications to flow in porous media. We consider stochastic flow equations that contain both a spatial and random component which ...

  13. Creating value from uncertainty : a study of ocean transportation contracting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pálsson, Sigurjón

    2005-01-01

    How can financial tools like real options and hedging mitigate and create value from uncertainty in transportation? This paper describes these concepts and identifies research on them that has relevance to transportation. ...

  14. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01

    of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treat- ment ofits exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. Inits exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its

  15. Assessing uncertainty in models of the ocean carbon cycle 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, Vivian

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis I explore the effect of parameter uncertainty in ocean biogeochemical models on the calculation of carbon uptake by the ocean. The ocean currently absorbs around a quarter of the annual anthropogenic CO2 ...

  16. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MITA Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Erwan Monier, Xiang Gao, Jeffery processes of policy development and implementation, climate change research needs to focus on improving

  17. Precipitation Research at UMN: Multiscale variability and Uncertainty in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    Precipitation Research at UMN: Multiscale variability and Uncertainty in Rainfall Estimation Developing nonparametric schemes for merging multisensor precipitation products Gupta, R., V. Venugopal and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, A methodology for merging multisensor precipitation estimates based on expectation

  18. Entropic uncertainty relation for power-law wave packets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sumiyoshi Abe; S. Martinez; F. Pennini; A. Plastino

    2002-06-06

    For the power-law quantum wave packet in configuration space, the variance of the position observable may be divergent. Accordingly, the information-entropic formulation of the uncertainty principle becomes more appropriate than the Heisenberg-type formulation, since it involves only the finite quantities. It is found that the total amount of entropic uncertainty converges to its lower bound in the limit of a large value of the exponent.

  19. POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO­THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Carøe 1 , M.P. Nowak 2 , W. R: A multi­stage stochastic pro­ gramming model for power scheduling un­ der uncertainty in a generation system comprising thermal and pumped­storage hydro units is developed. For its compu­ tational solution

  20. Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration in Well Construction Cost Estimates 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valdes Machado, Alejandro

    2013-08-05

    , it is possible to assess the probabilities of cost overruns, understand the accuracy of the estimates and provide identification of risk factors in the well construction operations. Capen (1976) claimed we have not learned to successfully deal with uncertainty... of the project. Both issues contribute to inefficient capital budgeting. Using a probabilistic methodology is not sufficient to assess the uncertainty reliably. Look-backs, which are based on the analysis of past estimations, are required to provide more...

  1. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Djurcic, Zelimir; Detwiler, Jason A.; Piepke, Andreas; Foster Jr., Vince R.; Miller, Lester; Gratta, Giorgio

    2008-08-06

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in {bar {nu}}{sub e} detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties, and their relevance to reactor {bar {nu}}{sub e} experiments.

  2. Living With Radical Uncertainty. The Exemplary case of Folding Protein

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ignazio Licata

    2010-04-21

    Laplace's demon still makes strong impact on contemporary science, in spite of the fact that Logical Mathematics outcomes, Quantum Physics advent and more recently Complexity Science have pointed out the crucial role of uncertainty in the World's descriptions. We focus here on the typical problem of folding protein as an example of uncertainty, radical emergence and a guide to the "simple" principles for studying complex systems.

  3. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-02-01

    The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape, methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.

  4. Modeling Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaic Generation: A Hidden State Spatial Statistical Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tabone, Michaelangelo D; Callaway, Duncan S

    2015-01-01

    AND UNCERTAINTY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION [9] M. Milligan,for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on advancedand uncertainty in solar photovoltaic generation at multiple

  5. Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2010-01-01

    Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty AfzalEnergy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty ?DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected

  6. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for long-running computer codes : a critical review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langewisch, Dustin R

    2010-01-01

    This thesis presents a critical review of existing methods for performing probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for complex, computationally expensive simulation models. Uncertainty analysis (UA) methods ...

  7. Natural Gas Regulatory Policy: Current Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watkins, G.

    1988-01-01

    stream_source_info ESL-IE-88-09-56.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 1211 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name ESL-IE-88-09-56.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 NATURAL GAS... REGULATORY roLICY: CURRENT ISSUES G. GAIL WATKINS Railroad Commission of Texas Austin, Texas ABSTRACT Many changes have occurred in recent months in both federal and state natural gas regulation. Those changes have increased the options of industrial...

  8. Regulatory Framework at LANL.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMassR&D100 Winners * ImpactsandRegardingRegistration PrintRegulatory

  9. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K.

    1997-08-01

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  10. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  11. Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

    2014-05-14

    Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

  12. Environmental regulatory update table, March--April 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Health Sciences Research Div.; Salk, M.S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Div.

    1994-03-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  13. Environmental regulatory update table November--December 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E.; Mayer, S.J.; Salk, M.S.

    1995-01-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  14. Information resources in state regulatory agencies-a California perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DiZio, S.M.

    1990-12-31

    Various state regulatory agencies have expressed a need for networking with information gatherers/researchers to produce a concise compilation of primary information so that the basis for regulatory standards can be scientifically referenced. California has instituted several programs to retrieve primary information, generate primary information through research, and generate unique regulatory standards by integrating the primary literature and the products of research. This paper describes these programs.

  15. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November--December 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1994-01-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  16. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January--February 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1994-03-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations ad contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  17. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, September/October 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1993-11-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operation and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  18. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, March/April 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-05-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  19. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January/February 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-03-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action. This table is for January/February 1992.

  20. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November--December 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1993-01-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly wit information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  1. Environmental regulatory update table, September--October 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-11-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  2. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, July--August 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-09-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  3. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January--February 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.

    1993-03-01

    The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.

  4. Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage Regulatory Test Exercise...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage Regulatory Test Exercise: Output Report Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage...

  5. California Department of Fish and Wildlife: Federal Energy Regulatory...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    California Department of Fish and Wildlife: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Hydroelectric Projects Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library...

  6. Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG/Hydrogen Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    CNGHydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in the United States Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNGHydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in the United States Presentation given by Barbara...

  7. Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG, CNG-Hydrogen, Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Hydrogen, Hydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in China Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG, CNG-Hydrogen, Hydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in China Presentation given by Jinyang Zheng of...

  8. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    List of Covered Electric Utilities. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) - List of Covered Electric...

  9. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SUPPLEMENTAL NOTICE OF PUBLIC SCOPING MEETINGS FOR THE PLANNED ALASKA LNG PROJECT (October 20, 2015) The staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC or Commission) will...

  10. Department of Energy Commends the Nuclear Regulatory Commission...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Commission's Approval of a Second Early Site Permit in Just One Month Department of Energy Commends the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Approval of a Second Early Site Permit...

  11. Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop Toolkit (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K.

    2014-04-01

    Overview of DOE's Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit project, providing information on where to go to view documents and who to contact to get involved.

  12. Panel 4, Grid-Scale Storage Technologies: Regulatory Barriers...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grid-scale Storage Technologies Regulatory Barriers and Policy Instruments Hydrogen Energy Storage for Grid and Transportation Services May 15 th , 2014 Sacramento, CA Demand 599...

  13. Mr. John Kinneman, Chief Nuclear Materfals Branch Nuclear Regulatory...

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    111989 Mr. John Kinneman, Chief Nuclear Materfals Branch Nuclear Regulatory Commission Region I 475 Allendale Road King of Prussia. Pennsylvania 19406 Dear Mr. Kinneman: -;' .-. 'W...

  14. Comments on reducing regulatory burden | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Solutions, manufacturer of Trane and American Standard residential air conditioners, heat pumps, furnaces, and accessories Comments on reducing regulatory burden More...

  15. Comments on Request For Information regarding Reducing Regulatory...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Request For Information regarding Reducing Regulatory Reform issued February 3, 2011 (Federal Register Vol. 76, No. 23 Thursday, February 3, 2011 Notices). Comments on Request...

  16. Developing a Regulatory Framework for Extended Storage and Transportat...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Path Forward 2 Current NRC Regulatory Framework for Storage * Renewable Term Licenses * Aging Management Plan - Time-limited aging analyses - Design for prevention - Monitoring -...

  17. Dynamic and Robust Capacitated Facility Location in Time Varying Demand Environments 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Torres Soto, Joaquin

    2010-07-14

    This dissertation studies models for locating facilities in time varying demand environments. We describe the characteristics of the time varying demand that motivate the analysis of our location models in terms of total demand and the change...

  18. Semi-parametric Methods for Estimating Time-varying Graph Structure

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murphy, Robert F.

    for estimating time-varying networks, which both build on a temporally smoothed l1-regularized logistic-varying networks. For real datasets, we reverse engi- neer the latent sequence of temporally rewiring political

  19. A New Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Physical Parameters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victoria, University of

    A New Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Physical of Mechanical Engineering) ABSTRACT Within a wave energy converter's operational bandwidth, device operation

  20. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  1. Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, J.; McNelis, D. [Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (United States); Yim, M.S. [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

  2. Systematic uncertainties from halo asphericity in dark matter searches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernal, Nicolás; Forero-Romero, Jaime E.; Garani, Raghuveer; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio E-mail: je.forero@uniandes.edu.co E-mail: sergio.palomares.ruiz@ific.uv.es

    2014-09-01

    Although commonly assumed to be spherical, dark matter halos are predicted to be non-spherical by N-body simulations and their asphericity has a potential impact on the systematic uncertainties in dark matter searches. The evaluation of these uncertainties is the main aim of this work, where we study the impact of aspherical dark matter density distributions in Milky-Way-like halos on direct and indirect searches. Using data from the large N-body cosmological simulation Bolshoi, we perform a statistical analysis and quantify the systematic uncertainties on the determination of local dark matter density and the so-called J factors for dark matter annihilations and decays from the galactic center. We find that, due to our ignorance about the extent of the non-sphericity of the Milky Way dark matter halo, systematic uncertainties can be as large as 35%, within the 95% most probable region, for a spherically averaged value for the local density of 0.3-0.4 GeV/cm {sup 3}. Similarly, systematic uncertainties on the J factors evaluated around the galactic center can be as large as 10% and 15%, within the 95% most probable region, for dark matter annihilations and decays, respectively.

  3. SCALE-6 Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methods and Covariance Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Mark L [ORNL; Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL

    2008-01-01

    Computational methods and data used for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis within the SCALE nuclear analysis code system are presented. The methodology used to calculate sensitivity coefficients and similarity coefficients and to perform nuclear data adjustment is discussed. A description is provided of the SCALE-6 covariance library based on ENDF/B-VII and other nuclear data evaluations, supplemented by 'low-fidelity' approximate covariances. SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation) is a modular code system developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to perform calculations for criticality safety, reactor physics, and radiation shielding applications. SCALE calculations typically use sequences that execute a predefined series of executable modules to compute particle fluxes and responses like the critical multiplication factor. SCALE also includes modules for sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of calculated responses. The S/U codes in SCALE are collectively referred to as TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation). SCALE-6-scheduled for release in 2008-contains significant new capabilities, including important enhancements in S/U methods and data. The main functions of TSUNAMI are to (a) compute nuclear data sensitivity coefficients and response uncertainties, (b) establish similarity between benchmark experiments and design applications, and (c) reduce uncertainty in calculated responses by consolidating integral benchmark experiments. TSUNAMI includes easy-to-use graphical user interfaces for defining problem input and viewing three-dimensional (3D) geometries, as well as an integrated plotting package.

  4. Direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations: what it takes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paul Busch; Neil Stevens

    2015-01-17

    The uncertainty principle being a cornerstone of quantum mechanics, it is surprising that in nearly 90 years there have been no direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations. This lacuna was due to the absence of two essential ingredients: appropriate measures of measurement error (and disturbance), and precise formulations of such relations that are {\\em universally valid}and {\\em directly testable}. We formulate two distinct forms of direct tests, based on different measures of error. We present a prototype protocol for a direct test of measurement uncertainty relations in terms of {\\em value deviation errors} (hitherto considered nonfeasible), highlighting the lack of universality of these relations. This shows that the formulation of universal, directly testable measurement uncertainty relations for {\\em state-dependent} error measures remains an important open problem. Recent experiments that were claimed to constitute invalidations of Heisenberg's error-disturbance relation are shown to conform with the spirit of Heisenberg's principle if interpreted as direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations for error measures that quantify {\\em distances between observables}.

  5. U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Revision 1 February 1996

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rubloff, Gary W.

    and doses to members of the public that are as low as is reasonably achievable (ALARA), provides for planned REGULATORY RESEARCH REGULATORY GUIDE 8.29 (Draft was issued as DG-8012) INSTRUCTION CONCERNING RISKS FROM OCCUPATIONAL RADIATION EXPOSURE A. INTRODUCTION Section 19.12 of 10 CFR Part 19, "Notices, In- structions

  6. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW PROPOSAL TO CREATE DISTRICTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW FOR THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE DISTRICTS WITHIN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.1Environmental Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.2Regulatory Impact Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL AND BIOLOGICAL IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.1 Atka Mackerel Biology

  7. HYBRID PETRI NET REPRESENTATION OF GENE REGULATORY NETWORK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Breitling, Rainer

    HYBRID PETRI NET REPRESENTATION OF GENE REGULATORY NETWORK HIROSHI MATSUNO, ATSUSHI DOI Faculty regulatory networks. The HPN is an extension of Petri nets which have been used to represent many kinds networks which realizes the intuitions of biologists while keeping the universality in its com- putational

  8. Comparisons of Statistical Modeling for Constructing Gene Regulatory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murphy, Kevin Patrick

    Comparisons of Statistical Modeling for Constructing Gene Regulatory Networks by Xiaohui Chen B. In this thesis, we compare a variety of existing regression models and apply them to construct regulatory network construction algorithm. Finally, we apply our models on a p53-related data set, NCI-60 data

  9. U.S. ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION REGULATORY GUIDE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    U.S. ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION REGULATORY GUIDE DIRECTORATE OF REGULATORY STANDARDS JUNE 1974 OF OPERATING LICENSES FOR NUCLEAR REACTORS A. INTRODUCTION Section 50.51, "Duration of license, renewal," of 10 CFR Part 50, "Licensing of Production and Utilization Facilities," requires that each license

  10. Commissioner George Apostolakis U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bernstein, Joseph B.

    Commissioner George Apostolakis U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission CmrApostolakis@nrc.gov 25th event occurs at a nuclear facility." [Commission's White Paper, February, 1999] · Questions that defense associated with current regulatory requirements 8 #12;Risk-Informed Framework 9 Traditional "Deterministic

  11. Understanding Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with the Electric Power System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mills, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with themodels and datasets. Photovoltaics fall under the broader

  12. 4. Uncertainty D. Keil Artificial Intelligence 7/13 David Keil, Framingham State University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keil, David M.

    4. Uncertainty D. Keil Artificial Intelligence 7/13 David Keil, Framingham State University CSCI 300 Artificial Intelligence 4. Uncertainty and belief 1. Acting under uncertainty 2. Probability CSCI 300 Artificial Intelligence 4. Uncertainty 7/13 Inquiry · Is probabilistic reasoning part

  13. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  14. THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODELING COEFFICIENTS USED TO PREDICT...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    likely to vary for systems in different climates, depending on the distribution of temperature and irradiance, as well as for different technology types. As previously reported,...

  15. Regulatory Assistance, Stakeholder Outreach, and Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Activities in Support of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geerlofs, Simon H.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Hanna, Luke A.

    2011-09-30

    This fiscal year 2011 progress report summarizes activities carried out under DOE Water Power Task 2.1.7, Permitting and Planning. Activities under Task 2.1.7 address the concerns of a wide range of stakeholders with an interest in the development of the marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy industry, including regulatory and resource management agencies, tribes, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. Objectives for Task 2.1.7 are the following: • to work with stakeholders to streamline the MHK regulatory permitting process • to work with stakeholders to gather information on needs and priorities for environmental assessment of MHK development • to communicate research findings and directions to the MHK industry and stakeholders • to engage in spatial planning processes in order to further the development of the MHK industry. These objectives are met through three subtasks, each of which is described in this report: • 2.1.7.1—Regulatory Assistance • 2.1.7.2—Stakeholder Outreach • 2.1.7.3—Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning. As MHK industry partners work with the regulatory community and stakeholders to plan, site, permit, and license MHK technologies, they have an interest in a predictable, efficient, and transparent process. Stakeholders and regulators have an interest in processes that result in sustainable use of ocean space with minimal effects to existing ocean users. Both stakeholders and regulators have an interest in avoiding legal challenges by meeting the intent of federal, state, and local laws that govern siting and operation of MHK technologies. The intention of work under Task 2.1.7 is to understand and work to address these varied interests, reduce conflict, identify efficiencies, and ultimately reduce the regulatory costs, time, and potential environmental impacts associated with developing, siting, permitting, and deploying MHK systems.

  16. Codes and standards and other guidance cited in regulatory documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nickolaus, J.R.; Bohlander, K.L.

    1996-08-01

    As part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan Update and Development Program (SRP-UDP), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a listing of industry consensus codes and standards and other government and industry guidance referred to in regulatory documents. The SRP-UDP has been completed and the SRP-Maintenance Program (SRP-MP) is now maintaining this listing. Besides updating previous information, Revision 3 adds approximately 80 citations. This listing identifies the version of the code or standard cited in the regulatory document, the regulatory document, and the current version of the code or standard. It also provides a summary characterization of the nature of the citation. This listing was developed from electronic searches of the Code of Federal Regulations and the NRC`s Bulletins, Information Notices, Circulars, Enforcement Manual, Generic Letters, Inspection Manual, Policy Statements, Regulatory Guides, Standard Technical Specifications and the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800).

  17. Approach for Czech regulatory body to LBB

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tendera, P.

    1997-04-01

    At present there are two NPPs equipped with PWR units in Czech Republic. The Dukovany NPP is about ten years in operation (four units 440 MW - WWER model 213) and Temelin NPP is under construction (two units 1000 MW-WWER model 320). Both NPPs were built to Soviet design and according to Soviet regulations and standards but most of equipment for primary circuits was supplied by home manufactures. The objective for the Czech LBB programme is to prove the LBB status of the primary piping systems of these NPPs and the LBB concept is a part of strategy to meet western style safety standards. The reason for the Czech LBB project is a lack of some standard safety facilities, too. For both Dukovany and Temolin NPPs a full LBB analysis should be carried out. The application of LBB to the piping system should be also a cost effective means to avoid installations of pipe whip restraints and jet shields. The Czech regulatory body issued non-mandatory requirement {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} which is in compliance with national legal documents and which is based on the US NRC Regulatory Procedures and US standards (ASME, CODE, ANSI). The requirement has been published in the document {open_quotes}Safety of Nuclear Facilities{close_quotes} No. 1/1991 as {open_quotes}Requirements on the Content and Format of Safety Reports and their Supplements{close_quotes} and consists of two parts (1) procedure for obtaining proof of evidence {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} (2) leak detection systems for the pressurized reactor primary circuit. At present some changes concerning both parts of the above document will be introduced. The reasons for this modifications will be presented.

  18. Approach of Czech regulatory body to LBB

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tendera, P.

    1997-04-01

    At present there are two NPPs equipped with PWR units in Czech Republic. The Dukovany, NPP is about ten years in operation (four units 440 MW - WWBFL model 213) and Tomelin NPP is under construction (two units 1000 MW - WWER model 320). Both NPPs were built to Soviet design and according to Soviet regulations and standards but most of equipment for primary circuits was supplied by home manufacturers. The objective of the Czech LBB program is to prove the LBB status of the primary piping systems of there NPPs and the LBB concept is a part of strategy to meet western style safety standards. The reason for the Czech LBB project is a lack of some standard safety Facilities too. For both Dukovany and Tomelin NPPs a full LBB analysis should be carried out. The application of LBB to the piping system should be also a cost effective means to avoid installations of pipe whip restraints and jet shields. The Czech regulatory body issued non-mandatory requirement, {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} which is in compliance with national legal documents and which is based on the US NRC Regulatory Procedures and US standards (ASMF CODE, ANSI). The requirement has been published in the document {open_quotes}Safety of Nuclear Facilities{close_quotes} No 1/1991 as {open_quotes}Requirements on the Content and Format of Safety Reports and their Supplements{close_quote} and consist of two parts (1) procedure for obtaining proof of evidence {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} (2) leak detection systems for the pressurized reactor primary circuit. At present some changes concerning both parts of the above document will be introduced. The reasons for this modifications will be presented.

  19. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  20. Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The mean'' value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility's net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

  1. Effective field theory for nuclear vibrations with quantified uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pérez, E A Coello

    2015-01-01

    We develop an effective field theory (EFT) for nuclear vibrations. The key ingredients - quadrupole degrees of freedom, rotational invariance, and a breakdown scale around the three-phonon level - are taken from data. The EFT is developed for spectra and electromagnetic moments and transitions. We employ tools from Bayesian statistics for the quantification of theoretical uncertainties. The EFT consistently describes spectra and electromagnetic transitions for $^{62}$Ni, $^{98,100}$Ru, $^{106,108}$Pd, $^{110,112,114}$Cd, and $^{118,120,122}$Te within the theoretical uncertainties. This suggests that these nuclei can be viewed as anharmonic vibrators.

  2. Solar WIMPs Unraveled: Experiments, astrophysical uncertainties, and interactive Tools

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Danninger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The absence of a neutrino flux from self-annihilating dark matter captured in the Sun has tightly constrained some leading particle dark matter scenarios. The impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the capture process of dark matter in the Sun and hence also the derived constraints by neutrino telescopes need to be taken into account. In this review we have explored relevant uncertainties in solar WIMP searches, summarized results from leading experiments, and provided an outlook into upcoming searches and future experiments. We have created an interactive plotting tool that allows the user to view current limits and projected sensitivities of major experiments under changing astrophysical conditions.

  3. Position and Momentum Uncertainties of the Normal and Inverted Harmonic Oscillators under the Minimal Length Uncertainty Relation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zachary Lewis; Tatsu Takeuchi

    2011-09-13

    We analyze the position and momentum uncertainties of the energy eigenstates of the harmonic oscillator in the context of a deformed quantum mechanics, namely, that in which the commutator between the position and momentum operators is given by [x,p]=i\\hbar(1+\\beta p^2). This deformed commutation relation leads to the minimal length uncertainty relation \\Delta x > (\\hbar/2)(1/\\Delta p +\\beta\\Delta p), which implies that \\Delta x ~ 1/\\Delta p at small \\Delta p while \\Delta x ~ \\Delta p at large \\Delta p. We find that the uncertainties of the energy eigenstates of the normal harmonic oscillator (m>0), derived in Ref. [1], only populate the \\Delta x ~ 1/\\Delta p branch. The other branch, \\Delta x ~ \\Delta p, is found to be populated by the energy eigenstates of the `inverted' harmonic oscillator (m \\sqrt{2} [\\hbar^2/k|m|]^{1/4}. Correspondence with the classical limit is also discussed.

  4. Regulatory Side-by-Side Governing Permitting of Cross-Border...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Regulatory Side-by-Side Governing Permitting of Cross-Border Electricity Transmission Facilities Between the United States and Canada Regulatory Side-by-Side Governing Permitting...

  5. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Handling of Beyond Design Basis Events for Nuclear Power Reactors

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presenter: Bill Reckley, Chief, Policy and Support Branch, Japan Lessons-Learned Project Directorate, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  6. The Harmonic Oscillator and the Uncertainty Principle Frank Rioux

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rioux, Frank

    The Harmonic Oscillator and the Uncertainty Principle Frank Rioux Emeritus Professor of Chemistry CSB|SJU Schrödinger's equation in atomic units (h = 2) for the harmonic oscillator has an exact is that tunneling occurs in the simple harmonic oscillator. The classical turning point is that position at which

  7. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun; Oliver, D.S.

    1997-08-01

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  8. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillas, Serge

    for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via.maribu@ensmp.fr 1 #12;Investment and Upgrade under Uncertainty in Distributed Generation 2 Keywords: Combined heat heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower

  9. A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411 Cambridge, MA 02139 (USA) Location: Building E19, Room 411 400 Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Water Stress: a Case Study in Asia Charles Fant* , C. Adam

  10. Constructing Bayesiannetwork Models of Software Testing and Maintenance Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ziv, Hadar

    Constructing Bayesian­network Models of Software Testing and Maintenance Uncertainties To appear, Software requirements, Software test­ ing, Software maintenance 1 #12; 1 Introduction Development­to­market constraints. In real­life software projects, testing is often done after coding is complete, does

  11. Partition Testing versus Random Testing: the Influence of Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gutjahr, Walter

    detection, partition test­ ing, program testing, random testing, software testing. I. Introduction Few topics in software testing methodology seem to be more controversial than the question whetherPartition Testing versus Random Testing: the Influence of Uncertainty Walter J. Gutjahr Department

  12. H 1 Optimization with Plant Uncertainty and Semidefinite Programming \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Helton, J. William

    H 1 Optimization with Plant Uncertainty and Semidefinite Programming \\Lambda J. William Helton Dept worst case frequency domain specifications. This is a non smooth optimization problem that underlies in Qualitative Feedback Theory for example. It is shown in this article how the fundamental H 1 optimization

  13. Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.; Brown, G.

    2015-10-07

    Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine powermore »performance analysis and annual energy production. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30 % of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. Large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation when arc scans are used for wind resource assessment.« less

  14. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  15. Bayesian System Identification and Response Predictions Robust to Modeling Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Beck, James L.

    .g. system ID, structural health monitoring, robust control, state &/or parameter estimation ) #12;33 Outline of seismic ground acceleration Finite element model with uncertain parameters Posterior analysis: During;55 System performance measure in the presence of uncertainty: Failure probability + - "Failure" t(t)iy i b i

  16. Resilience and Water Governance Addressing Fragmentation and Uncertainty in Water

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Control Act, commonly known as the Clean Water Act (CWA), to dean up point source discharges fromFIVE Resilience and Water Governance Addressing Fragmentation and Uncertainty in Water Allocation and Water Quality Law BARBARA A. COSENS AND CRAIG A. STOW The U.S. EPA reports that almost half

  17. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  18. Post-doc: Uncertainty Quantification of Offshore Wind Farms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jansen, Erik

    Post-doc: Uncertainty Quantification of Offshore Wind Farms Faculty/department Aerospace systems, from small wind turbines to large offshore wind farms, are the focus of research in the Wind research activities there is a focus on large, multimegawatt offshore wind turbines and offshore wind farms

  19. Stochastic Optimization for Operating Chemical Processes under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Henrion, René

    Abstract Mathematical optimization techniques are on their way to becoming a standard tool in chemical Stochastic Optimization for Operating Chemical Processes under Uncertainty René Henrion1 , Pu Li2 for the explicit treatment of uncertain- ties by stochastic optimization. 1 OPERATING CHEMICAL PROCESSES Chemical

  20. Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty++++ Afzal Siddiqui

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillas, Serge

    1 Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty++++ Afzal Siddiqui University, CA 94720-8163, USA, c_marnay@lbl.gov ABSTRACT. This paper examines a California-based microgrid-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity

  1. ASME PTC 47, gasification combined cycle performance -- Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, D.H.; Horazak, D.A.; Bannister, R.L.

    1998-07-01

    Determining the uncertainty of measured calculated performance parameters is required in all Performance Test Codes of the ASME. This determination begins with the equations defining the performance parameters of the equipment or system--input, useful output, and effectiveness (an input/output ratio). The variables in these equations are: plant operating conditions measured throughout a test; corrections that compensate for deviations of other significant measured plant and ambient operating conditions from their values specified for the test. PTC47, Gasification Combined Cycle Plant Performance, will define procedures for the performance testing of overall gasification combined cycle plants and for each of three major sections that may comprise such a plant. The Committee is now defining the performance parameters for these tests. Performance factor computations include uncertainty calculations in order to provide preliminary estimates of the accuracy expected from the test methods proposed in this Code. Uncertainty calculations will also be used to explore energy balance methods for calculating the energy input to various gasifiers--entrained flow, fluidized bed, and moving bed. Such methods would be important as possible alternatives to direct measurements of flows and heating values of the various fuels fed to the gasifiers. Uncertainty calculations will also be used to assist in identifying those measurements of ambient, imposed, and controlled operating conditions that significantly affect test results and for which correction factors should be determined.

  2. Managing Uncertainty in Sound based Control for an Autonomous Helicopter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hopgood, Adrian

    Managing Uncertainty in Sound based Control for an Autonomous Helicopter Benjamin N. Passow, Mario research us- ing a multi-purpose, small and low cost autonomous helicopter platform (Flyper). We supervised method to localise the indoor helicopter and extract meaningful information to enable

  3. Comment on "Coherence and Uncertainty in Nanostructured Organic Photovoltaics"

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mukamel, Shaul

    Comment on "Coherence and Uncertainty in Nanostructured Organic Photovoltaics" Shaul Mukamel of the eigenfunctions of the Schrodinger equation that describes the nanostructured organic photovoltaic blend. (2 universal "coherence effects" in photovoltaics is misguided. There are two types of coherences in many

  4. Leveraging Uncertainty in Design-to-Criteria Scheduling Thomas Wagner

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    Leveraging Uncertainty in Design-to-Criteria Scheduling Thomas Wagner Computer Science Department Technical Report 1997-11 January 20, 1996 Abstract Design-to-Criteria scheduling is the process of custom to achieve tasks and sub- tasks. Formerly, Design-to-Criteria scheduling relied on simple expected value

  5. Leveraging Uncertainty in DesigntoCriteria Scheduling \\Lambda Thomas Wagner

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    Leveraging Uncertainty in Design­to­Criteria Scheduling \\Lambda Thomas Wagner Computer Science Computer Science Technical Report 1997­11 January 20, 1996 Abstract Design­to­Criteria scheduling that describes alternate ways to achieve tasks and sub­ tasks. Formerly, Design­to­Criteria scheduling relied

  6. INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT Sanjay S. Chauhan1 and David S. Bowles2 ABSTRACT Risk assessment is becoming more widely used to supplement traditional approaches to dam safety decision-making. Dam owners throughout Australia, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Bureau

  7. Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansen, Tor Arne

    Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav.ntnu.no) Abstract: The information content in measurements of offshore oil and gas production is often low, and when in the context of offshore oil and gas fields, can be considered the total output of production wells, a mass

  8. Chaos: a bridge from microscopic uncertainty to macroscopic randomness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. J. Liao

    2012-01-09

    It is traditionally believed that the macroscopic randomness has nothing to do with the micro-level uncertainty. Besides, the sensitive dependence on initial condition (SDIC) of Lorenz chaos has never been considered together with the so-called continuum-assumption of fluid (on which Lorenz equations are based), from physical and statistic viewpoints. A very fine numerical technique (Liao, 2009) with negligible truncation and round-off errors, called here the "clean numerical simulation" (CNS), is applied to investigate the propagation of the micro-level unavoidable uncertain fluctuation (caused by the continuum-assumption of fluid) of initial conditions for Lorenz equation with chaotic solutions. Our statistic analysis based on CNS computation of 10,000 samples shows that, due to the SDIC, the uncertainty of the micro-level statistic fluctuation of initial conditions transfers into the macroscopic randomness of chaos. This suggests that chaos might be a bridge from micro-level uncertainty to macroscopic randomness, and thus would be an origin of macroscopic randomness. We reveal in this article that, due to the SDIC of chaos and the inherent uncertainty of initial data, accurate long-term prediction of chaotic solution is not only impossible in mathematics but also has no physical meanings. This might provide us a new, different viewpoint to deepen and enrich our understandings about the SDIC of chaos.

  9. Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pollefeys, Marc

    Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives Jinghe Zhang unit (PMU), developed in the 1980s, is considered to be one of the most important devices in the future of power systems. While PMU measurements currently cover fewer than 1% of the nodes in the U.S. power grid

  10. Quantification of nuclear uncertainties in nucleosynthesis of elements beyond Iron

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Rauscher

    2014-12-22

    Nucleosynthesis beyond Fe poses additional challenges not encountered when studying astrophysical processes involving light nuclei. Generally higher temperatures and nuclear level densities lead to stronger contributions of transitions on excited target states. This may prevent cross section measurements to determine stellar reaction rates and theory contributions remain important. Furthermore, measurements often are not feasible in the astrophysically relevant energy range. Sensitivity analysis allows not only to determine the contributing nuclear properties but also is a handy tool for experimentalists to interpret the impact of their data on predicted cross sections and rates. It can also speed up future input variation studies of nucleosynthesis by simplifying an intermediate step in the full calculation sequence. Large-scale predictions of sensitivities and ground-state contributions to the stellar rates are presented, allowing an estimate of how well rates can be directly constrained by experiment. The reactions 185W(n,gamma) and 186W(gamma,n) are discussed as application examples. Studies of uncertainties in abundances predicted in nucleosynthesis simulations rely on the knowledge of reaction rate errors. An improved treatment of uncertainty analysis is presented as well as a recipe for combining experimental data and theory to arrive at a new reaction rate and its uncertainty. As an example, it is applied to neutron capture rates for the s-process, leading to larger uncertainties than previously assumed.

  11. Representing Uncertainty in Decision Support Harvey J. Greenberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenberg, Harvey J.

    overlapping factors. · Source of uncertainty. Is it a future event, such as product demand? Is it ignorance defines a proven reserve? · Time scale. Is the decision a strategic one, to cover a planning horizon? Is it a major setback, such as the loss of a company? Is it catastrophic, such as the loss of a city? · Decision

  12. Medium Term Planning & Scheduling under Uncertainty for BP Chemicals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Results & Future Research #12;5 By Products Benzene: Used elsewhere by other BP companies. Styrene can1 Medium Term Planning & Scheduling under Uncertainty for BP Chemicals Progress Report Murat Kurt Products & Applications Models Results & Future Research #12;4 Products - PTA Purified Terephthalic Acid

  13. UNCERTAINTY MEASURES AND LIMITING DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FILAMENT ESTIMATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    UNCERTAINTY MEASURES AND LIMITING DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FILAMENT ESTIMATION By Yen-Chi Chen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 1. Introduction. A filament is a one-dimensional, smooth, connected structure embedded in a multi-dimensional space. Filaments arise in many applications. For example, matter in the universe tends to concentrate

  14. Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation Based Maritime Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Dorp, Johan René

    Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation Based Maritime Risk Assessment #12;Abstract Recent work in the assessment of risk in maritime transportation systems has used simulation-based probabilistic risk assessment techniques. In the Prince William Sound and Washington State Ferries risk assessments, the studies

  15. Early Power Grid Verification Under Circuit Current Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Najm, Farid N.

    Early Power Grid Verification Under Circuit Current Uncertainties Imad A. Ferzli Department of ECE Eindhoven, The Netherlands lars@magma-da.com ABSTRACT As power grid safety becomes increasingly important in modern integrated circuits, so does the need to start power grid verifica- tion early in the design cycle

  16. Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty Submitted in partial chapters. My conversations with Kurt Walzer at Clean Air Task Force and Rory McIlmoil at Coal Valley Wind Technology Laboratory. I did not complete this work alone. I had a lot of help along the way. I would like

  17. Planning with Concurrency under Resources and Time Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kabanza, Froduald

    and Franc¸ois Michaud1 Abstract. Planning with actions concurrency under resources and time uncertainty has uncertain, the duration of a navigation task and the energy required to fulfill it are probabilistic. Up include the Generate, Test, and Debug (GTD) framework [11, 6]. Others include the Factory Policy Gradient

  18. Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

    2010-09-01

    Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.

  19. What makes information valuable: signal reliability and environmental uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stephens, David W.

    uncertainty in animal signal use. We de- veloped a simple model that predicted when animals should switch The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Many aspects. An example of a reliable signal is the carotenoid-based plumage colora- tion in male house finches

  20. Plant-Wide Waste Management. 2. Decision Making under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linninger, Andreas A.

    Plant-Wide Waste Management. 2. Decision Making under Uncertainty Aninda Chakraborty and Andreas A of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60607 The synthesis and optimization of plant-wide waste management flowsheet produces a superstructure that embeds all plant-wide waste management policies. In the subsequent

  1. Developments of the Price equation and natural selection under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grafen, Alan

    success, following Darwin (1859). Here, this project is pursued by developing the Price equation, ¢rstDevelopments of the Price equation and natural selection under uncertainty Alan Grafen Department to employ these approaches. Here, a new theore- tical development arising from the Price equation provides

  2. POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Car e1, M.P. Nowak2, W. Romisch2 and pumped-storage hydro units is developed. For its compu- tational solution two di erent decompo- sition-burning) thermal units, pumped-storage hydro plants and delivery con- tracts and describe an optimization model

  3. Submitted to Building and Environment UNCERTAINTY IN AIR FLOW CALCULATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LBL-25415 Submitted to Building and Environment UNCERTAINTY IN AIR FLOW CALCULATIONS USING TRACER are becoming widely used to measure the ventilation rates in buildings. As more detailed information by the Assistant Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy, Office of Building and Community Systems

  4. Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty Submitted in partial, and Rod Lawrence at Foundation Coal. I received a lot of feedback and input on this report, and would like chapters. My conversations with Kurt Walzer at Clean Air Task Force and Rory McIlmoil at Coal Valley Wind

  5. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May/June 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-07-01

    This report contains a bi-monthly update of environmental regulatory activity that is of interest to the Department of Energy. It is provided to DOE operations and contractor staff to assist and support environmental management programs by tracking regulatory developments. Any proposed regulation that raises significant issues for any DOE operation should be reported to the Office of Environmental Guidance (EH-23) as soon as possible so that the Department can make its concerns known to the appropriate regulatory agency. Items of particular interest to EH-23 are indicated by a shading of the RU{number_sign}.

  6. Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May/June 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.

    1992-07-01

    This report contains a bi-monthly update of environmental regulatory activity that is of interest to the Department of Energy. It is provided to DOE operations and contractor staff to assist and support environmental management programs by tracking regulatory developments. Any proposed regulation that raises significant issues for any DOE operation should be reported to the Office of Environmental Guidance (EH-23) as soon as possible so that the Department can make its concerns known to the appropriate regulatory agency. Items of particular interest to EH-23 are indicated by a shading of the RU{number sign}.

  7. Uncertainty of calorimeter measurements at NREL's high flux solar furnace

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C.E.

    1991-12-01

    The uncertainties of the calorimeter and concentration measurements at the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are discussed. Two calorimeter types have been used to date. One is an array of seven commercially available circular foil calorimeters (gardon or heat flux gages) for primary concentrator peak flux (up to 250 W/cm{sup 2}). The second is a cold-water calorimeter designed and built by the University of Chicago to measure the average exit power of the reflective compound parabolic secondary concentrator used at the HFSF (over 3.3 kW across a 1.6cm{sup {minus}2} exit aperture, corresponding to a flux of about 2 kW/cm{sup 2}). This paper discussed the uncertainties of the calorimeter and pyrheliometer measurements and resulting concentration calculations. The measurement uncertainty analysis is performed according to the ASME/ANSI standard PTC 19.1 (1985). Random and bias errors for each portion of the measurement are analyzed. The results show that as either the power or the flux is reduced, the uncertainties increase. Another calorimeter is being designed for a new, refractive secondary which will use a refractive material to produce a higher average flux (5 kW/cm{sup 2}) than the reflective secondary. The new calorimeter will use a time derivative of the fluid temperature as a key measurement of the average power out of the secondary. A description of this calorimeter and test procedure is also presented, along with a pre-test estimate of major sources of uncertainty. 8 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. OVERVIEW OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT APPROACHES: CEMENTITIOUS BARRIERS PARTNERSHIP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langton, C.; Burns, H.

    2009-05-29

    Engineered barriers including cementitious barriers are used at sites disposing or contaminated with low-level radioactive waste to enhance performance of the natural environment with respect to controlling the potential spread of contaminants. Drivers for using cementitious barriers include: high radionuclide inventory, radionuclide characteristics (e.g., long half-live, high mobility due to chemical form/speciation, waste matrix properties, shallow water table, and humid climate that provides water for leaching the waste). This document comprises the first in a series of reports being prepared for the Cementitious Barriers Partnership. The document is divided into two parts which provide a summary of: (1) existing experience in the assessment of performance of cementitious materials used for radioactive waste management and disposal and (2) sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approaches that have been applied for assessments. Each chapter is organized into five parts: Introduction, Regulatory Considerations, Specific Examples, Summary of Modeling Approaches and Conclusions and Needs. The objective of the report is to provide perspective on the state of the practice for conducting assessments for facilities involving cementitious barriers and to identify opportunities for improvements to the existing approaches. Examples are provided in two contexts: (1) performance assessments conducted for waste disposal facilities and (2) performance assessment-like analyses (e.g., risk assessments) conducted under other regulatory regimes. The introductory sections of each section provide a perspective on the purpose of performance assessments and different roles of cementitious materials for radioactive waste management. Significant experience with assessments of cementitious materials associated with radioactive waste disposal concepts exists in the US Department of Energy Complex and the commercial nuclear sector. Recently, the desire to close legacy facilities has created a need to assess the behavior of cementitious materials for applications in environmental remediation and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) applications. The ability to assess the use and benefits of cementitious materials for these applications can significantly affect decisions related to cleanup activities. For example the need for costly remedial actions may not be necessary if existing or new cementitious barriers were adequately represented. The sections dealing with regulatory considerations include summaries of the different regulations that are relevant for various applications involving cementitious materials. A summary of regulatory guidance and/or policies pertaining to performance assessment of cementitious materials and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses is also provided in the following chapters. Numerous examples of specific applications are provided in each report. The examples are organized into traditional waste disposal applications (performance assessments), applications related to environmental remediation and D&D, and reactor and spent fuel related assessments. Sections that discuss specific facilities or sites contain: (1) descriptions of the role of the cementitious barriers or sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, (2) parameter assumptions and conceptual models, and (3) a relative discussion of the significance in the context of the assessment. Examples from both the U.S. Department of Energy Sites and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission are provided to illustrate the variety of applications and approaches that have been used. In many cases, minimal credit was taken for cementitious barriers. However, in some of those cases, benefits of being able to take credit for barriers were identified. The examples included: (1) disposal facilities (vaults, trenches, tank closures, cementitious waste forms and containers, etc.), (2) environmental remediation (old disposal facilities), (3) reactor and large structure decommissioning, and (4) spent fuel pools. These examples were selected to provide a perspective on the various ne

  9. Alternative future environmental regulatory approaches for petroleum refineries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elcock, D.; Gasper, J.; Moses, D. O.; Emerson, D.; Arguerro, R.; Environmental Assessment; DOE; Analytical Services, Inc.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, many industrial, regulatory, and community leaders have expressed concern that the current environmental regulatory structure disregards multimedia environmental impacts, provides few incentives to develop and use new technologies, and fails to consider site-specific conditions. For the US petroleum refining industry, faced with the need to produce higher-quality fuels from poorer-quality feedstocks, such criticisms are expected to increase. This article offers two alternative environmental regulatory approaches for existing petroleum refineries to use in the future. These alternative approaches are multimedia in scope, provide for new technology development and use, and allow flexibility in the means for meeting environmental goals. They have been reviewed and critiqued by various stakeholders, including industry representatives, regulators, and local and national community and environmental organizations. The integration of stakeholder comments and findings of ongoing national and international regulatory reinvention efforts in the development of these approaches positions them for potential use by other industries in addition to petroleum refineries.

  10. Lisa C. Tracy Acting Director Division of Natural Gas Regulatory...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    November 17, 2014 Lisa C. Tracy Acting Director Division of Natural Gas Regulatory Activities U.S. Department of Energy (FE-34) Office of Oil and Gas Global Security Office of...

  11. Regulatory Competition and the Location of International Arbitration Proceedings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Drahozal, Christopher R.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the effect of regulatory competition in international arbitration law on the parties’ choice of the place of arbitration – in other words, the extent to which countries that revise their arbitration statutes succeed...

  12. Optimal Intervention in Markovian Genetic Regulatory Networks for Cancer Therapy 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rezaei Yousefi, Mohammadmahdi

    2013-04-01

    A basic issue for translational genomics is to model gene interactions via gene regulatory networks (GRNs) and thereby provide an informatics environment to derive and study effective interventions eradicating the tumor. In this dissertation, we...

  13. NEMA Comments on DOE Reducing Regulatory Burden RFI

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) thanks you for the opportunity to provide comments on the Department of Energy’s efforts to make its regulatory program more effective and...

  14. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    as Applicable to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) -List of Covered Electric Utilities - 2006 Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable to the...

  15. NGNP Project Regulatory Gap Analysis for Modular HTGRs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wayne Moe

    2011-09-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project Regulatory Gap Analysis (RGA) for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGR) was conducted to evaluate existing regulatory requirements and guidance against the design characteristics specific to a generic modular HTGR. This final report presents results and identifies regulatory gaps concerning current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing requirements that apply to the modular HTGR design concept. This report contains appendices that highlight important HTGR licensing issues that were found during the RGA study. The information contained in this report will be used to further efforts in reconciling HTGR-related gaps in the NRC licensing structure, which has to date largely focused on light water reactor technology.

  16. Microsoft Word - Regulatory Burden RFI NEMA Comments regarding...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Electrical Manufacturers Association 1300 North 17th Street, Suite 900 - Rosslyn, VA 22209 November 28, 2 July 17, 2015 VIA EMAIL TO: Regulatory.Review@hq.doe.gov Mr. Aaron...

  17. Small regulatory RNAs in mammals : genomics, function and evolution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Jin-Kuk

    2011-01-01

    This thesis explores two aspects of small regulatory RNAs in mammals: (1) the genomic origin of mammalian piwi-interacting RNAs (piRNAs), (2) the evolutionary and functional implication of the seed-based target recognition ...

  18. Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG, CNG-Hydrogen Vehicles...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Hydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in India Safety and Regulatory Structure for CNG, CNG-Hydrogen Vehicles and Fuels in India Presentation given by Ambrish Mishra of India's Ministry of...

  19. Air Quality: Air Pollutants, SLAC Emissions Sources, and Regulatory Reference

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wechsler, Risa H.

    Air Quality: Air Pollutants, SLAC Emissions Sources, and Regulatory Reference Department: Chemical permit regulations are designed to track, record, and control air pollutants belonging to several on chemical classifications. This reference outlines major categories of air pollutants found at SLAC

  20. Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap Workshop at GRC | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Workshop at GRC Jump to: navigation, search GRR-logo.png GEOTHERMAL REGULATORY ROADMAP Roadmap Home Roadmap Help List of Sections GRR Project Review and Workshop Register for this...

  1. Utility Conservation Programs: A Regulatory and Design Framework 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Norland, D. L.; Wolf, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    PROGRAMS: A REGULATORY AND DESIGN FRAMEWORK*+ Douglas L. Norland James L. Wolf Alliance to Save Energy Washington, D.C. ABSTRACT Investing in opportunities to conserve electricity is frequently very economic to the energy user. Often, it also... initiative or required by a public service commission, raises several issues of public policy that must be carefully examined. First, a regulatory framework is necessary to ensure compatibility between the design of a con servation program and its...

  2. Regulatory compliance and air quality permitting: Why do firms overcomply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DeHart-Davis, Leisha; Bozeman, Barry

    2001-10-01

    Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Regulatory compliance and air quality permitting: Why do firms overcomply? Leisha DeHart-Davis; Barry Bozeman Journal of Public Administration...Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Regulatory compliance and air quality permitting: Why do firms overcomply? Leisha DeHart-Davis; Barry Bozeman Journal of Public Administration...

  3. Cut-on, cut-off transition of sound in slowly varying flow ducts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rienstra, Sjoerd W.

    Cut-on, cut-off transition of sound in slowly varying flow ducts Sjoerd W. Rienstra 19-walled duct with irrotational isentropic mean flow is studied. The usual turning point behaviour was found. 1 Introduction The exact multiple scale solution for sound propagation in a slowly varying lined flow duct

  4. SOUND TRANSMISSION IN SLOWLY VARYING CIRCULAR AND ANNULAR LINED DUCTS WITH FLOW a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eindhoven, Technische Universiteit

    SOUND TRANSMISSION IN SLOWLY VARYING CIRCULAR AND ANNULAR LINED DUCTS WITH FLOW a S.W. Rienstra/CEAS Aeroacoustics Conference, June 2­4, 1998, Toulouse ABSTRACT Sound transmission through straight circular ducts by a modal expansion. A natural ex­ tension for ducts with axially slowly varying properties (diameter

  5. Storage of water on vegetation under simulated rainfall of varying intensity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keim, Richard

    Storage of water on vegetation under simulated rainfall of varying intensity R.F. Keim a,*, A Little is understood about how storage of water on forest canopies varies during rainfall, even though storage changes intensity of throughfall and thus affects a variety of hydrological processes

  6. ON A MODEL FOR CONTINUOUS SEDIMENTATION IN VESSELS WITH DISCONTINUOUSLY VARYING CROSS-SECTIONAL AREA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ON A MODEL FOR CONTINUOUS SEDIMENTATION IN VESSELS WITH DISCONTINUOUSLY VARYING CROSS]. However, we now consider that the cross-sectional area of the settling vessel is not constant in both for continuous sedimentation in a vessel with varying cross section. In the formulation of the #12;nal initial

  7. The Y-chromosome landscape of the Philippines: extensive heterogeneity and varying genetic affinities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Shuhua

    ARTICLE The Y-chromosome landscape of the Philippines: extensive heterogeneity and varying genetic, Mark Stoneking2 and Maria Corazon A De Ungria*,1 The Philippines exhibits a rich diversity of people history for Filipino groups, with varying roles for migrations from outside the Philippines, genetic drift

  8. An Adaptive Framework for Visualizing Unstructured Grids with Time-Varying Scalar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Callahan, Steven

    . A number of successful techniques for time-varying regular grids have used compression to mitigate simulations. This is a challenging problem since this data is often large, can be organized in different) and variable domain fields. It is common to consider subsets of this problem, such as time-varying scalar

  9. Action Potential Energy Efficiency Varies Among Neuron Types in Vertebrates and Invertebrates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Action Potential Energy Efficiency Varies Among Neuron Types in Vertebrates and Invertebrates Biswa) Action Potential Energy Efficiency Varies Among Neuron Types in Vertebrates and Invertebrates. PLo gradients, thus consuming more energy. Here, we ask whether the ionic currents underlying the AP can

  10. Lyapunov Function Constructions for Slowly Time-Varying Systems Frederic Mazenc and Michael Malisoff

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sontag, Eduardo

    Lyapunov Function Constructions for Slowly Time-Varying Systems Fr´ed´eric Mazenc and Michael Malisoff Abstract-- We provide general methods for explicitly con- structing strict Lyapunov functions previous Lyapunov function constructions for rapidly time-varying dynamics. We also explicitly construct

  11. On Control-Lyapunov Functions for Hybrid Time-Varying Systems Michael Malisoff and Frederic Mazenc

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sontag, Eduardo

    On Control-Lyapunov Functions for Hybrid Time-Varying Systems Michael Malisoff and Fr´ed´eric Mazenc Abstract-- We explicitly construct strict input-to-state stable Lyapunov functions for time varying hybrid systems, in terms of given nonstrict Lyapunov functions and persistency of excitation

  12. Capacity-Optimal Training for Space-Time Modulation over a Time-Varying Channel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swindlehurst, A. Lee

    Capacity-Optimal Training for Space-Time Modulation over a Time-Varying Channel Christian B. Peel-autocorrelation function for time-varying MIMO channels, we find a lower bound on capacity for trained modulation, and find for differential unitary space-time modulation is discussed and compared with that for trained modulation. We

  13. 4.1.1.6 Quiet and slowly varying radio emissions Arnold O. Benz

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    4.1.1.6 Quiet and slowly varying radio emissions of the sun Arnold O. Benz The solar atmosphere emits radio emission at all wavelengths and at all times. Its total flux density varies with magnetic. It is reached when the sun has been free of spots for some weeks. This is called the quiet radio emission

  14. Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K. R.; Levine, A.

    2014-09-01

    The Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit combines the former Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap, National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Database, and other resources into a Web-based tool that gives the regulatory and utility-scale geothermal developer communities rapid and easy access to permitting information. RAPID currently comprises five tools - Permitting Atlas, Regulatory Roadmap, Resource Library, NEPA Database, and Best Practices. A beta release of an additional tool, the Permitting Wizard, is scheduled for late 2014. Because of the huge amount of information involved, RAPID was developed in a wiki platform to allow industry and regulatory agencies to maintain the content in the future so that it continues to provide relevant and accurate information to users. In 2014, the content was expanded to include regulatory requirements for utility-scale solar and bulk transmission development projects. Going forward, development of the RAPID Toolkit will focus on expanding the capabilities of current tools, developing additional tools, including additional technologies, and continuing to increase stakeholder involvement.

  15. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission functional organization charts, March 15, 1993. Revision 16

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-03-01

    Functional organization charts for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission offices, divisions, and branches are presented.

  16. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Apostolakis, G.; Boore, D.M. [and others

    1997-04-01

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreement among experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of ground motion for design at a given site. In order to review the present state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) co-sponsored a project to provide methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project has been carried out by a seven-member Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) supported by a large number other experts. The SSHAC reviewed past studies, including the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the EPRI landmark PSHA studies of the 1980`s and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. The Committee`s most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are due to procedural rather than technical differences. Thus, in addition to providing a detailed documentation on state-of-the-art elements of a PSHA, this report provides a series of procedural recommendations. The role of experts is analyzed in detail. Two entities are formally defined-the Technical Integrator (TI) and the Technical Facilitator Integrator (TFI)--to account for the various levels of complexity in the technical issues and different levels of efforts needed in a given study.

  17. Regulatory and extra-regulatory testing to demonstrate radioactive material packaging safety

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ammerman, D.J.

    1997-06-01

    Packages for the transportation of radioactive material must meet performance criteria to assure safety and environmental protection. The stringency of the performance criteria is based on the degree of hazard of the material being transported. Type B packages are used for transporting large quantities of radioisotopes (in terms of A{sub 2} quantities). These packages have the most stringent performance criteria. Material with less than an A{sub 2} quantity are transported in Type A packages. These packages have less stringent performance criteria. Transportation of LSA and SCO materials must be in {open_quotes}strong-tight{close_quotes} packages. The performance requirements for the latter packages are even less stringent. All of these package types provide a high level of safety for the material being transported. In this paper, regulatory tests that are used to demonstrate this safety will be described. The responses of various packages to these tests will be shown. In addition, the response of packages to extra-regulatory tests will be discussed. The results of these tests will be used to demonstrate the high level of safety provided to workers, the public, and the environment by packages used for the transportation of radioactive material.

  18. Modeling Heterogeneity in Networks using Uncertainty Quantification Tools

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rajendran, Karthikeyan; Siettos, Constantinos I; Laing, Carlo R; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

    2015-01-01

    Using the dynamics of information propagation on a network as our illustrative example, we present and discuss a systematic approach to quantifying heterogeneity and its propagation that borrows established tools from Uncertainty Quantification. The crucial assumption underlying this mathematical and computational "technology transfer" is that the evolving states of the nodes in a network quickly become correlated with the corresponding node "identities": features of the nodes imparted by the network structure (e.g. the node degree, the node clustering coefficient). The node dynamics thus depend on heterogeneous (rather than uncertain) parameters, whose distribution over the network results from the network structure. Knowing these distributions allows us to obtain an efficient coarse-grained representation of the network state in terms of the expansion coefficients in suitable orthogonal polynomials. This representation is closely related to mathematical/computational tools for uncertainty quantification (th...

  19. Uncertainties in nuclear transition matrix elements of neutrinoless ?? decay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rath, P. K.

    2013-12-30

    To estimate the uncertainties associated with the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} (K=0?/0N) for the 0{sup +} ? 0{sup +} transitions of electron and positron emitting modes of the neutrinoless ?? decay, a statistical analysis has been performed by calculating sets of eight (twelve) different nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} in the PHFB model by employing four different parameterizations of a Hamiltonian with pairing plus multipolar effective two-body interaction and two (three) different parameterizations of Jastrow short range correlations. The averages in conjunction with their standard deviations provide an estimate of the uncertainties associated the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} calculated within the PHFB model, the maximum of which turn out to be 13% and 19% owing to the exchange of light and heavy Majorana neutrinos, respectively.

  20. Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid

    2014-01-01

    This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...