National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for oxford economic forecasting

  1. Adrian Cooper CEO, Oxford Economics

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    macroeconomic impact of lower oil prices June 2015 Adrian Cooper CEO, Oxford Economics acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Lower oil prices big boost for the global economy... 2 ...but global economic news has been disappointing 3 Who should be the winners? 4 ...and losers? 5 Fall in oil prices give US households extra $1,000 6 But investment down sharply... 7 ...and further falls likely 8 Extraction sector employment also hit hard 9 But not all countries have seen lower gas prices 10 Contrasting

  2. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  3. Oxford Solar | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford Solar Jump to: navigation, search Name: Oxford Solar Place: Randolph, New Jersey Zip: 7869 Sector: Solar Product: Oxford Solar provides solar energy consulting and...

  4. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  5. Oxford System 400

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Oxford Plasmalab System 400 Sputtering System For questions concerning this machines capabilities, please contact Varshni Singh, at 578-0248. ecr.jpg (48456 bytes) &nbsp: ecr1.jpg (68318 bytes) The Oxford System 400 produces uniform metallic films for use in the LIGA process at CAMD. This tool is equipped with two DC and one RF magnetron sputter targets for deposition of Cu, Ni, and Ti respectively. A load lock and rotating table allow deposition of up to four wafers during a single run.

  6. Oxford Innovation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Innovation Jump to: navigation, search Name: Oxford Innovation Place: United Kingdom Sector: Services Product: General Financial & Legal Services ( Private family-controlled )...

  7. Oxford Catalysts Group plc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford Catalysts Group plc Place: Oxford, United Kingdom Zip: OX2 6UD Sector: Hydro, Hydrogen Product: Developer of catalysts for room-temperature hydrogen production, hot steam...

  8. Oxford County, Maine: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford, Maine Norway, Maine Otisfield, Maine Oxford, Maine Paris, Maine Peru, Maine Porter, Maine Roxbury, Maine Rumford, Maine South Oxford, Maine South Paris, Maine Stoneham,...

  9. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  10. Oxford, Massachusetts: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map Oxford is a town in Worcester County, Massachusetts.1 Registered Energy Companies in...

  11. City of Oxford, Georgia (Utility Company) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford, Georgia (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, search Name: Oxford City of Place: Georgia Phone Number: 770-786-7004 Website: www.oxfordgeorgia.org Outage Hotline:...

  12. Village of Oxford, Nebraska (Utility Company) | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford, Nebraska (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, search Name: Oxford Municipal Power Place: Nebraska Phone Number: 308.824.3511 Website: www.oxfordne.comgovernment Outage...

  13. Oxford, Mississippi: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hide Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Oxford is a city in Lafayette County, Mississippi. It falls under Mississippi's 1st...

  14. Oxford, Ohio: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hide Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Oxford is a city in Butler County, Ohio. It falls under Ohio's 8th congressional...

  15. Oxford, Michigan: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hide Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Oxford is a village in Oakland County, Michigan. It falls under Michigan's 8th congressional...

  16. City of Oxford, Mississippi (Utility Company) | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford Place: Mississippi Phone Number: 662-232-2373 or 662-236-1310 Website: www.oxfordms.netdepartmentse Twitter: @OxfordMS Facebook: https:www.facebook.com...

  17. Oxford, United Kingdom: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hide Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Oxford is a city in the United Kingdom. Registered Research Institutions in Oxford, United...

  18. New Oxford, Pennsylvania: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oxford, Pennsylvania: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia Coordinates 39.8637086, -77.0558143 Show Map Loading map... "minzoom":false,"mappings...

  19. DOE - Office of Legacy Management -- Oxford_FUSRAP

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Office of Legacy Management activities consist of managing site records and responding to stakeholder inquiries. For more information about the Oxford Site, view the fact sheet. ...

  20. DOE - Office of Legacy Management -- Oxford OH Site - OH 22

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Oxford OH Site - OH 22 FUSRAP Considered Sites Oxford, OH Alternate Name(s): Alba Craft Shop Alba Craft Laboratory Albaugh dba Alba Craft Shop OH.22-3 OH.22-4 Location: 10-14 West Rose Avenue, Oxford, Ohio OH.22-7 Historical Operations: Performed metal fabrication under subcontract with AEC prime contract to National Lead Company of Ohio on uranium metal. Includes VPs. OH.22-5 OH.22-6 OH.22-8 Eligibility Determination: Eligible OH.22-1 OH.22-2 Radiological Survey(s): Assessment Survey,

  1. Oxford, North Carolina: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hide Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Oxford is a city in Granville County, North Carolina. It falls under North Carolina's 1st...

  2. Oxford Area Community School District (Michigan) Bonds Case Study

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Michigan’s Oxford Area Community School District entered into an energy savings performance contract and issued limited tax general obligation bonds to fund the up-front costs of almost $3 million of energy-related improvements. Case study is excerpted from Financing Energy Upgrades for K-12 School Districts: A Guide to Tapping into Funding for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Improvements. Author: Merrian Borgeson and Mark Zimring

  3. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  4. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  5. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    areas of energy issues. The research focuses on: the economics of petroleum, gas, coal, nuclear power, solar and renewable energy; the politics and sociology of energy; the...

  6. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  7. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  8. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  9. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  11. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  12. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  13. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  14. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  15. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  16. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  19. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  1. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  2. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  3. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  4. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  5. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  6. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  7. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  8. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  9. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  12. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  13. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  14. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  15. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  16. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  17. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  18. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  19. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  20. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  1. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  2. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  3. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, along with their partners at Arizona State University and the University of Oxford, under the Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies (SEEDS)...

  4. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  5. Economic Development

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Development Economic Development Los Alamos is committed to investing and partnering in economic development initiatives and programs that have a positive impact to stimulate business growth that creates jobs and strengthens communities in Northern New Mexico. September 20, 2013 LANS Venture Acceleration Fund (VAF) award enabled Ideum to develop motion recognition software for international release. Jim Spadaccini (R) has tapped into the Lab's economic development programs: VAF, NMSBA,

  6. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  7. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  8. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  9. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  10. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  11. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  12. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  13. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  14. Economic Performance

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance ... of greenhouse gas emissions a priority for Federal agencies, it is hereby ordered as follows: Section 1. Policy. ...

  15. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  16. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  18. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  19. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  20. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  1. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  2. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  4. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  6. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  7. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  8. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  9. Alan Farquharson, SVP Reservoir Engineering Economics! Upstream

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    June 16, 2015 Alan Farquharson, SVP - Reservoir Engineering & Economics! Upstream Developments Generate Growing Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Supply! 2 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements and information in this presentation may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "plan,"

  10. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  11. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  12. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  13. Economics | NISAC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NISACEconomics content top NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE(tm)) Posted by Admin on Mar 1, 2012 in | Comments 0 comments NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE(tm)) NISAC has developed N-ABLE(tm) to assist federal decision makers in improving the security and resilience of the U.S. economy. N-ABLE(tm) is a large-scale microeconomic simulation tool that models the complex supply-chain, spatial market dynamics, and critical-infrastructure interdependencies of

  14. ECONOMIC DISPATCH

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 United States Department of Energy February 2007 ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 Sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) 1 direct the U.S. Department of Energy (the Department, or DOE) to: 1) Study

  15. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE 4 th Solar Integration Workshop Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Anthony Florita, and Bri-Mathias Hodge Berlin, Germany November 10, 2014 NREL/PR-5000-63082 2 Motivation and Scope * The economic benefits from renewable energy forecasting are largely unquantified in the power community o Current renewable energy penetration levels in the United States are often too low to appreciably quantify the value of improving renewable energy

  16. Behavioral Economics Applied to Energy Demand Analysis: A Foundation

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Behavioral Economics Applied to Energy Demand Analysis: A Foundation October 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Behavioral Economics Applied to Energy Demand Analysis i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of

  17. Fuel economizer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zwierzelewski, V.F.

    1984-06-26

    A fuel economizer device for use with an internal combustion engine fitted with a carburetor is disclosed. The fuel economizer includes a plate member which is mounted between the carburetor and the intake portion of the intake manifold. The plate member further has at least one aperture formed therein. One tube is inserted through the at least one aperture in the plate member. The one tube extends longitudinally in the passage of the intake manifold from the intake portion toward the exit portion thereof. The one tube concentrates the mixture of fuel and air from the carburetor and conveys the mixture of fuel and air to a point adjacent but spaced away from the inlet port of the internal combustion engine.

  18. ECONOMIC IMPACT

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 2015 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES National Security Sandia's primary mission is ensuring the U.S. nuclear arsenal is safe, secure, and reliable, and can fully support our nation's deterrence policy. NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEFENSE SYSTEMS & ASSESSMENTS We provide technical solutions for global security by engineering and integrating advanced science and technology to help defend and protect the United States. Jill Hruby President and Laboratories Director "Qualified, diverse

  19. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  20. Unconventional gas outlook: resources, economics, and technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drazga, B.

    2006-08-15

    The report explains the current and potential of the unconventional gas market including country profiles, major project case studies, and new technology research. It identifies the major players in the market and reports their current and forecasted projects, as well as current volume and anticipated output for specific projects. Contents are: Overview of unconventional gas; Global natural gas market; Drivers of unconventional gas sources; Forecast; Types of unconventional gas; Major producing regions Overall market trends; Production technology research; Economics of unconventional gas production; Barriers and challenges; Key regions: Australia, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States; Major Projects; Industry Initiatives; Major players. Uneconomic or marginally economic resources such as tight (low permeability) sandstones, shale gas, and coalbed methane are considered unconventional. However, due to continued research and favorable gas prices, many previously uneconomic or marginally economic gas resources are now economically viable, and may not be considered unconventional by some companies. Unconventional gas resources are geologically distinct in that conventional gas resources are buoyancy-driven deposits, occurring as discrete accumulations in structural or stratigraphic traps, whereas unconventional gas resources are generally not buoyancy-driven deposits. The unconventional natural gas category (CAM, gas shales, tight sands, and landfill) is expected to continue at double-digit growth levels in the near term. Until 2008, demand for unconventional natural gas is likely to increase at an AAR corresponding to 10.7% from 2003, aided by prioritized research and development efforts. 1 app.

  1. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  2. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  3. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  4. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  7. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  8. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  9. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  10. Ecological economizer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, E.M.

    1992-06-16

    This patent describes an engine economizer system adapted to supply an internal combustion engine with a heated air and water vapor mixture. It comprises a containment vessel, the vessel having: water level control means, an engine coolant fluid circuit, an engine lubricant circuit, an elongated air passage, air disbursement means, a water reservoir, air filter means, a vacuum aspiration port, and engine induction means associated with one of the carburetor and intake manifold and adapted to draw in the heated air and water vapor mixture by means of a hose connection to the aspiration port.

  11. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  14. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  15. Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2011-03-01

    This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

  16. Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, Eric; Tegen, Suzanne

    2011-03-31

    This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

  17. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  18. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  19. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  20. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  1. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  2. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  3. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  5. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  6. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  7. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  8. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  9. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  10. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  11. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  12. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  13. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  14. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  17. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  18. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  19. Economic Development from New Generation and Transmission in Wyoming and Colorado (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-03-01

    This report analyzes the potential economic impacts in Colorado and Wyoming of a 225 MW natural gas fired electricity generation facility and a 900 MW wind farm constructed in Wyoming as well as a 180 mile, 345 kV transmission line that runs from Wyoming to Colorado. This report and analysis is not a forecast, but rather an estimate of economic activity associated with a hypothetical scenario.

  20. Economic Development from New Generation and Transmission in Wyoming and Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keyser, D.; Lantz, E.

    2013-03-01

    This report analyzes the potential economic impacts in Colorado and Wyoming of a 225 MW natural gas fired electricity generation facility and a 900 MW wind farm constructed in Wyoming as well as a 180 mile, 345 kV transmission line that runs from Wyoming to Colorado. This report and analysis is not a forecast, but rather an estimate of economic activity associated with a hypothetical scenario.

  1. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  2. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  3. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  4. Economic Impact | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impact Jefferson Lab generates many economic benefits. For the nation, Jefferson Lab generates $679.1 million in economic output and 4,422 jobs. The economic output and related jobs represent the potential loss of gross output and employment that would be felt by the country if the lab suddenly were to vanish. For the Commonwealth of Virginia, Jefferson Lab generates $271.1 million in economic output and 2,200 jobs. For the Hampton Roads area, the lab creates an economic benefit in the

  5. Oxford, Ohio, Site Fact Sheet

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    metal to be used at AEC's Savannah River site in South Carolina. NLO also performed hollow drilling and turning of uranium metal to be used in the Savannah River and Hanford, ...

  6. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  7. MTBE Production Economics

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    MTBE Production Economics Tancred C. M. Lidderdale Contents 1. Summary 2. MTBE Production ... End Notes 1. For an analysis of MTBE economics through 1999 refer to: U.S. ...

  8. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  9. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  10. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  11. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  12. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  13. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  14. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  15. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  16. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  17. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  18. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  20. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  1. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  2. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  5. Solar Photovoltaic Economic Development: Building and Growing a Local PV Industry, August 2011 (Book)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    The U.S. photovoltaic (PV) industry is forecast to grow, and it represents an opportunity for economic development and job creation in communities throughout the United States. This report helps U.S. cities evaluate economic opportunities in the PV industry. It serves as a guide for local economic development offices in evaluating their community?s competitiveness in the solar PV industry, assessing the viability of solar PV development goals, and developing strategies for recruiting and retaining PV companies to their areas.

  6. Conflict Between Economic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The confict between economic growth and environmental protection may not be reconciled via ... Physicists and other scholars from the physical sciences are urgently needed for helping ...

  7. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning, information on Alaska programs, and more.

  8. Economic Values | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economic Values Jump to: navigation, search Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleEconomicValues&oldid612356...

  9. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  10. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  11. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  12. Wind Economic Development (Postcard)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the economic development benefits of wind energy. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the economic development benefits section on the Wind Powering America website.

  13. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  14. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  15. Economic Rebalancing and Electricity Demand in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    He, Gang; Lin, Jiang; Yuan, Alexandria

    2015-11-01

    Understanding the relationship between economic growth and electricity use is essential for power systems planning. This need is particularly acute now in China, as the Chinese economy is going through a transition to a more consumption and service oriented economy. This study uses 20 years of provincial data on gross domestic product (GDP) and electricity consumption to examine the relationship between these two factors. We observe a plateauing effect of electricity consumption in the richest provinces, as the electricity demand saturates and the economy develops and moves to a more service-based economy. There is a wide range of forecasts for electricity use in 2030, ranging from 5,308 to 8,292 kWh per capita, using different estimating functions, as well as in existing studies. It is therefore critical to examine more carefully the relationship between electricity use and economic development, as China transitions to a new growth phase that is likely to be less energy and resource intensive. The results of this study suggest that policymakers and power system planners in China should seriously re-evaluate power demand projections and the need for new generation capacity to avoid over-investment that could lead to stranded generation assets.

  16. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  17. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  18. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  19. Economic Development Office

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Development Office Is your technology business looking for a door to the Laboratory? The Economic Development Office at PNNL is here to help you start, grow, or relocate your business. We help you tap into technology experts, facilities, and other resources available at the Laboratory...some at no cost to you. We've helped more than 400 companies in our region and 100 more nationwide. Our goals: to expand the economy's technology sector and create high-value jobs. Economic Development

  20. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  1. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  2. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  3. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  4. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  5. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  6. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  7. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  8. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  9. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  10. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference (SWAMC), the 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning,...

  11. Tribal Economic Outlook Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by Northern Arizona University, the Tribal Economic Outlook Conference will preview the conditions that will impact business and economy in the year ahead. Hear what the experts are predicting for 2016 at the tribal, state, and local level.

  12. Renewable Energy Economic Potential

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

  13. Regional Economic Development

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Regional Economic Development Regional Economic Development Supporting companies in every stage of development through access to technology, technical assistance or investment Questions Richard P. Feynman Center for Innovation Regional Programs (505) 665-9090 New Mexico Small Business Assistance Email Venture Acceleration Fund Email DisrupTECH Email SBIR/STTR Email FCI facilitates commercialization in New Mexico to accelerate and enhance our efforts to convert federal and state research

  14. The outlook for the economic and environmental performance of australia's national electricity market in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simshauser, Paul; Doan, Thao; Lacey, Ben

    2007-07-15

    CO{sub 2} emissions in Australia's NEM have increased from 117 Mt in 1990 to 169 Mt in 2002. Without policy intervention, emissions are forecast to further rise to 265 Mt by 2030. An analysis of the economic and environmental impact of various generation technology options suggests that the most likely technology glide path will be gas-fired generation in the medium term, with IGCC + CCS or nuclear being the dominant baseload technology over the long run. (author)

  15. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  16. Economical wind protection - underground

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiesling, E.W.

    1980-01-01

    Earth-sheltered buildings inherently posess near-absolute occupant protection from severe winds. They should sustain no structural damage and only minimal facial damage. Assuming that the lower-hazard risk attendant to this type of construction results in reduced insurance-premium rates, the owner accrues economic benefits from the time of construction. Improvements to aboveground buildings, in contrast, may not yield early economic benefits in spite of a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. This, in addition to sensitivity to initial costs, traditionalism in residential construction, and lack of professional input to design, impede the widespread use of underground improvements and the subsequent economic losses from severe winds. Going underground could reverse the trend. 7 references.

  17. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  19. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  20. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  1. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  2. Jobs and Economic Development Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Project objective: Develop models to estimate jobs and economic impacts from geothermal project development and operation.

  3. Economic analysis of small-scale fuel alcohol plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schafer, J.J. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    To plan Department of Energy support programs, it is essential to understand the fundamental economics of both the large industrial size plants and the small on-farm size alcohol plants. EG and G Idaho, Inc., has designed a 25 gallon per hour anhydrous ethanol plant for the Department of Energy's Alcohol Fuels Office. This is a state-of-the-art reference plant, which will demonstrate the cost and performance of currently available equipment. The objective of this report is to examine the economics of the EG and G small-scale alcohol plant design and to determine the conditions under which a farm plant is a financially sound investment. The reference EG and G Small-Scale Plant is estimated to cost $400,000. Given the baseline conditions defined in this report, it is calculated that this plant will provide an annual after-tax of return on equity of 15%, with alcohol selling at $1.62 per gallon. It is concluded that this plant is an excellent investment in today's market, where 200 proof ethanol sells for between $1.80 and $2.00 per gallon. The baseline conditions which have a significant effect on the economics include plant design parameters, cost estimates, financial assumptions and economic forecasts. Uncertainty associated with operational variables will be eliminated when EG and G's reference plant begins operation in the fall of 1980. Plant operation will verify alcohol yield per bushel of corn, labor costs, maintenance costs, plant availability and by-product value.

  4. WINDExchange: Wind Economic Development

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Development WINDExchange provides software applications and publications to help individuals, developers, local governments, and utilities make decisions about wind power. Projecting costs and benefits of new installations, including the economic development impacts created, is a key element in looking at potential wind applications. Communities, states, regions, job markets (i.e., construction, operations and maintenance), the tax base, tax revenues, and others can be positively affected. These

  5. Establishing Economic Competitiveness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Establishing Economic Competitiveness Energy storage technologies can transform electric systems operation by providing flexibility. This can improve the efficiency of electric system operation. For example, energy storage systems can smooth the otherwise variable production of renewable energy technologies and help shift the peak demand to reduce peak electric prices. Though energy storage technologies can be game-changing grid technology, they must inevitably compete with alternative

  6. Cogeneration: Economics and politics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prince, R.G.H.; Poole, M.L.

    1996-12-31

    Cogeneration is a well established process for supplying heat and electricity from a single fuel source. Its feasibility and implementation in any particular case depend on technical, economic and internal and external {open_quotes}cultural{close_quotes} factors, including government policies. This paper describes the current status of small scale industrial cogeneration in Australia. A model has been developed to analyse the technical and economic aspects of retrofitting gas turbine cogeneration in the size range 3 to 30MW to industrial sites. The model demonstrates that for typical Australian energy cost data, the payback and the size of the optimized cogeneration plant depend strongly on electricity buyback prices. Also reviewed are some of the {open_quotes}cultural{close_quotes} factors which often militate against an otherwise economic installation, and government policies which may retard cogeneration by concern about local air emissions or favor it as increasing efficiency of energy use and reducing greenhouse emissions. A case study of a small gas turbine plant in Australia is outlined. 2 refs., 2 figs.

  7. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  8. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  9. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  10. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  11. Arctic Economics Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-03-01

    AEM (Arctic Economics Model) for oil and gas was developed to provide an analytic framework for understanding the arctic area resources. It provides the capacity for integrating the resource and technology information gathered by the arctic research and development (R&D) program, measuring the benefits of alternaive R&D programs, and providing updated estimates of the future oil and gas potential from arctic areas. AEM enables the user to examine field or basin-level oil and gas recovery,more » costs, and economics. It provides a standard set of selected basin-specified input values or allows the user to input their own values. AEM consists of five integrated submodels: geologic/resource submodel, which distributes the arctic resource into 15 master regions, consisting of nine arctic offshore regions, three arctic onshore regions, and three souhtern Alaska (non-arctic) regions; technology submodel, which selects the most appropriate exploration and production structure (platform) for each arctic basin and water depth; oil and gas production submodel, which contains the relationship of per well recovery as a function of field size, production decline curves, and production decline curves by product; engineering costing and field development submodel, which develops the capital and operating costs associated with arctic oil and gas development; and the economics submodel, which captures the engineering costs and development timing and links these to oil and gas prices, corporate taxes and tax credits, depreciation, and timing of investment. AEM provides measures of producible oil and gas, costs, and ecomonic viability under alternative technology or financial conditions.« less

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  13. Non-Economic Determinants of Energy Use in Rural Areas of South Africa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Annecke, W.

    1999-03-29

    This project will begin to determine the forces and dimensions in rural energy-use patterns and begin to address policy and implementation needs for the future. This entails: Forecasting the social and economic benefits that electrification is assumed to deliver regarding education and women's lives; Assessing negative perceptions of users, which have been established through the slow uptake of electricity; Making recommendations as to how these perceptions could be addressed in policy development and in the continuing electrification program; Making recommendations to policy makers on how to support and make optimal use of current energy-use practices where these are socio-economically sound; Identifying misinformation and wasteful practices; and Other recommendations, which will significantly improve the success of the rural electrification program in a socio-economically sound manner, as identified in the course of the work.

  14. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  15. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  17. Variables Affecting Economic Development of Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2008-02-01

    Report on the specific factors driving wind-power-related economic development and on the impact of specific economic development variables on new wind project economic benefits.

  18. Geothermal District Heating Economics

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-07-12

    GEOCITY is a large-scale simulation model which combines both engineering and economic submodels to systematically calculate the cost of geothermal district heating systems for space heating, hot-water heating, and process heating based upon hydrothermal geothermal resources. The GEOCITY program simulates the entire production, distribution, and waste disposal process for geothermal district heating systems, but does not include the cost of radiators, convectors, or other in-house heating systems. GEOCITY calculates the cost of district heating basedmore » on the climate, population, and heat demand of the district; characteristics of the geothermal resource and distance from the distribution center; well-drilling costs; design of the distribution system; tax rates; and financial conditions.« less

  19. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report X. Economic analysis and financial plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1982-01-01

    The economic evaluation presented in this volume is based upon the cost estimates developed in the Phase Zero effort and an evaluation of product market values developed by the PACE Company Engineers and Consultants, Inc. All costs and revenues have been adjusted to reflect the impact of inflation, consistent with the forecast shown in Table 2.1, Page 2-19. Tax treatment reflects expert interpretation of the tax law in effect January 1981. The Marketing Analysis section is an abstract of a detailed report prepared by the PACE Company for the Breckinridge Project. It provides the reader with an understanding of the methodology used to establish product values, and identifies and interprets the effects of key variables that impact market prices. The base case economic scenario, considered the most likely to occur, anticipates that the world economic growth, as well as that of the United States, will be substantially less than that experienced during the previous twenty years. Under the scenario, major disruptions in crude oil supply will not occur. Therefore, prices in real terms at the end of this century are projected to be slightly higher than the peak price of 1981. Domestic natural gas supplies are expected to expand as a result of deregulation and increased importation of LNG. Two alternate economic scenarios are also considered. Sensitivity analysis of both alternate economic scenarios and key project variables clearly point to the market price of crude oil as the dominant economic factor determining this project's soundness. The base case forecast is considered to be not only the most likely case but one not likely to be proven optimistic. The Financial Plan section outlines provisions and presents a plan for financial management of the project.

  20. How regulators should use natural gas price forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Costello, Ken

    2010-08-15

    Natural gas prices are critical to a range of regulatory decisions covering both electric and gas utilities. Natural gas prices are often a crucial variable in electric generation capacity planning and in the benefit-cost relationship for energy-efficiency programs. High natural gas prices can make coal generation the most economical new source, while low prices can make natural gas generation the most economical. (author)

  1. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  2. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  4. SRS Economic Impact Study - SRSCRO

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SRS Economic Impact Study The operations at Savannah River Site (SRS) create jobs, generate income, and contribute to the tax revenues across both South Carolina and Georgia. When economic multipliers are factored in, the economic ripple effect is enormous. Despite its significance in recent years, there has been little understanding beyond qualitative observations about the value of SRS's contributions to the region and what that impact means in quantifiable terms. Consequently, the SRSCRO

  5. The Economics of Micro Grids

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Blink-less UPS Go Electric Energy Arbitrage Energy Optimization Peak shaving Demand Response & Aggregation FACILITIES UTILITIES 4 Micro Grid Economics: 2 Examples Go Electric ...

  6. economic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    economic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future ...

  7. Magnetic fusion reactor economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1995-12-01

    An almost primordial trend in the conversion and use of energy is an increased complexity and cost of conversion systems designed to utilize cheaper and more-abundant fuels; this trend is exemplified by the progression fossil fission {yields} fusion. The present projections of the latter indicate that capital costs of the fusion ``burner`` far exceed any commensurate savings associated with the cheapest and most-abundant of fuels. These projections suggest competitive fusion power only if internal costs associate with the use of fossil or fission fuels emerge to make them either uneconomic, unacceptable, or both with respect to expensive fusion systems. This ``implementation-by-default`` plan for fusion is re-examined by identifying in general terms fusion power-plant embodiments that might compete favorably under conditions where internal costs (both economic and environmental) of fossil and/or fission are not as great as is needed to justify the contemporary vision for fusion power. Competitive fusion power in this context will require a significant broadening of an overly focused program to explore the physics and simbiotic technologies leading to more compact, simplified, and efficient plasma-confinement configurations that reside at the heart of an attractive fusion power plant.

  8. China`s macro economic trends and power industry structure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Binsheng Li; Johnson, C.J.; Hagen, R.

    1994-09-01

    Since China adopted an open door policy in 1978, its economy has grown rapidly. Between 1980 and 1993, China`s real GNP growth averaged 9.4 percent per year. Economists at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast that GNP will increase by 11.5 percent in 1994. During the rest of the decade, the Chinese government plans to reduce its annual GNP growth rate to 8-9 percent. During the 2001-2010 period, the economic growth rate is projected to decline to 6.5 percent per year. Table 1 compares China`s economic growth to other Asia-Pacific Economies, and includes projections to 2010. During the 1980s, China`s GDP growth rate was only second to that of South Korea. In the 1990`s, China is projected to have the highest economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. China`s rapid economic growth is due to dramatic increases in the effective labor supply and effective capital stock. For the remainder of the 1990s, the effective labor supply should continue to increase rapidly because: (1) Chinese state enterprises are over-staffed and labor system reforms will move millions of these workers into more productive activities; (2) reforms in the wage system will provide increased incentives to work harder; (3) relaxation of migration controls from rural to urban areas will cause nominal labor in the industrial sector to accelerate; (4) differentials in personal income will increase and develop peer pressure on workers to work harder and earn more money; and (5) at China`s low personal income level, Chinese people are willing to trade leisure for more income as wages increase.

  9. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  10. Competitive economics of nuclear power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hellman, R.

    1981-03-02

    Some 12 components of a valid study of the competitive economics of a newly ordered nuclear power plant are identified and explicated. These are then used to adjust the original cost projections of four authoritative studies of nuclear and coal power economics.

  11. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  12. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  13. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  14. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  15. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  16. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  17. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  18. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  19. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  20. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  1. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  2. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  3. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  4. Economic Analysis Case Studies of Battery Energy Storage with SAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DiOrio, Nicholas; Dobos, Aron; Janzou, Steven

    2015-11-01

    Interest in energy storage has continued to increase as states like California have introduced mandates and subsidies to spur adoption. This energy storage includes customer sited behind-the-meter storage coupled with photovoltaics (PV). This paper presents case study results from California and Tennessee, which were performed to assess the economic benefit of customer-installed systems. Different dispatch strategies, including manual scheduling and automated peak-shaving were explored to determine ideal ways to use the storage system to increase the system value and mitigate demand charges. Incentives, complex electric tariffs, and site specific load and PV data were used to perform detailed analysis. The analysis was performed using the free, publically available System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. We find that installation of photovoltaics with a lithium-ion battery system priced at $300/kWh in Los Angeles under a high demand charge utility rate structure and dispatched using perfect day-ahead forecasting yields a positive net-present value, while all other scenarios cost the customer more than the savings accrued. Different dispatch strategies, including manual scheduling and automated peak-shaving were explored to determine ideal ways to use the storage system to increase the system value and mitigate demand charges. Incentives, complex electric tariffs, and site specific load and PV data were used to perform detailed analysis. The analysis was performed using the free, publically available System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. We find that installation of photovoltaics with a lithium-ion battery system priced at $300/kWh in Los Angeles under a high demand charge utility rate structure and dispatched using perfect day-ahead forecasting yields a positive net-present value, while all other scenarios cost the customer more than the savings accrued.

  5. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  6. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  7. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  8. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  9. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  10. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  11. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  12. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  13. WINDExchange: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Deployment Activities Printable Version Bookmark and Share Regional Resource Centers Economic Development Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Resources & Tools Siting Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet PDF The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation at the local and state levels. Based on

  14. Transcript of Tribal Energy and Economic Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Transcript for the Tribal Energy and Economic Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development held on Jan. 27, 2016.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  16. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  17. Travois Indian Country Affordable Housing & Economic Development...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Travois Indian Country Affordable Housing & Economic Development Conference Travois Indian Country Affordable Housing & Economic Development Conference April 4, 2016 8:00AM CDT to ...

  18. Economic Analysis of Commercial Idling Reduction Technologies...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Analysis of Commercial Idling Reduction Technologies: Which idling reduction ... A Key Enabler of Expanded U.S. Trade and Economic Growth Comparing Emissions Benefits from ...

  19. Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. You are accessing a ...

  20. Workforce and Economic Development | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Workforce and Economic Development Workforce and Economic Development Slides presented in the "What's Working in Residential Energy Efficiency Upgrade Programs Conference - ...

  1. Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics You are ...

  2. Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. ...

  3. PERI Green Economics | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    PERI Green Economics Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: PERI Green Economics AgencyCompany Organization: Political Economy Research Institute Sector:...

  4. Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California L. ... NRELSR-550-39291 April 2006 Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of ...

  5. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  6. Economic Benefits, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Reduction, and Water Conservation Benefits from 1,000 Megawatts (MW) of New Wind Power in Georgia (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America Program is committed to educating state-level policy makers and other stakeholders about the economic, CO2 emissions, and water conservation impacts of wind power. This analysis highlights the expected impacts of 1000 MW of wind power in Georgia. We forecast the cumulative economic benefits from 1000 MW of development in Georgia to be $2.1 billion, annual CO2 reductions are estimated at 3.0 million tons, and annual water savings are 1,628 million gallons.

  7. Economic Benefits, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Reductions, and Water Conservation Benefits from 1,000 Megawatts (MW) of New Wind Power in Arizona (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy?s Wind Powering America Program is committed to educating state-level policymakers and other stakeholders about the economic, CO2 emissions, and water conservation impacts of wind power. This analysis highlights the expected impacts of 1000 MW of wind power in Arizona. Although construction and operation of 1000 MW of wind power is a significant effort, six states have already reached the 1000-MW mark. We forecast the cumulative economic benefits from 1000 MW of development in Arizona to be $1.15 billion, annual CO2 reductions are estimated at 2.0 million tons, and annual water savings are 818 million gallons.

  8. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  9. BEST (Battery Economics for more Sustainable Transportation)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-12-31

    Computer software for the simulation of battery economics based on various transportation business models.

  10. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  11. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  12. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  13. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  14. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  15. Economics of a multimedia approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, J.B.; Hindawi, M.A.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major driving forces in the decision of a facility operator to implement a multimedia approach to examining pollution is the economics of the situation. A multimedia approach has gained favor with many facility operators because it has been shown to be more cost-effective than dealing with a number of phases, or media, separately. To a great extent, this is due to elimination of inefficiencies involved with cross-media transfer of pollutants. Even more basic to the problem of industrial pollution is the generation of waste. All industrial processes yield some percentage of waste products, but frequently during the design phase the costs associated with producing wastes are underestimated. As part of this series on multimedia issues, the costs related to manufacturing waste products are examined in detail. An obvious inefficiency associated with waste generation is the loss of material that potentially could be converted to salable products. The value of commodity raw materials frequently is ignored when considering the total costs of pollution generation at an industrial facility. Although the economics of pollution generation are affected by a number of factors, including regulatory costs, disposal costs and impacts on health and safety, this article focuses on the economics of lost production in industrial facilities.

  16. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  17. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  18. Economic Dispatch of Electric Generation Capacity | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Dispatch of Electric Generation Capacity A report to congress and the states pursuant to sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Polict Act of 2005. PDF icon Economic ...

  19. Variables Affecting Economic Development of Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2008-07-01

    NREL's JEDI Wind model performed an analysis of wind-power-related economic development drivers. Economic development benefits for wind and coal were estimated using NREL's JEDI Wind and JEDI Coal models.

  20. Economic Impact Tools | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Impact Tools Economic Impact Tools Photo of a well drilling rig. A man stands on the platform while another is climbing the rig. Technology Feasibility and Cost Analysis is performed to determine the potential economic viability of geothermal energy production and helps to identify which technologies have the greatest likelihood of economic success. Results from technology feasibility analysis efforts provide input to the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) research, development, and

  1. Environmentally and Economically Beneficial Practices on Federal...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Environmentally and Economically Beneficial Practices on Federal Landscaped Grounds This Environmental Protection Agency report contains recommendations for a series of...

  2. Techno-Economic Modeling, Analysis, and Support

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Techno-Economic Modeling, Analysis, and Support - Sandia ... Transportation Energy Co-Evolution of Biofuels ... Biological and Environmental Research Collaborations ...

  3. Economics of coal fines utilization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hathi, V.; McHale, E.; Ramezan, M.; Winslow, J.

    1995-12-31

    In the twentieth century, coal has become the major fuel for electric power generation in the U.S. and most of the nonpetroleum-producing countries of the world. In 1998, the world coal-fired capacity for electric power generation was about 815 GW, consuming large quantities of coals of all ranks. Today, coal provides a third of the world`s energy requirements. In fact, coal use for power generation has grown steadily since the oil embargo in 1973 and has seen an even faster rate of growth in recent years. It has been reported that the global demand for new coal will increase by more than 1500 million tons by the year 2000. However, this increased production of coal has its drawbacks, including the concomitant production of coal waste. Reported estimates indicate that billions of tons of coal waste have already been disposed of in waste impoundments throughout the U.S. Further, in the U.S. today, about 20-25 % of each ton of mined coal is discarded by preparation plants as gob and plant tailings. It appears that the most economical near-term approach to coal waste recovery is to utilize the waste coal fines currently discarded with the refuse stream, rather than attempt to recover coal from waste impoundments that require careful prior evaluation and site preparation. A hypothetical circuit was designed to examine the economics of recovery and utilization of waste coal fines. The circuit recovers products from 100 tons per hour (tph) of coal waste feed recovering 70 tph of fine coal that can be used in coal-fired boilers. The present analysis indicates that the coal waste recovery is feasible and economical. In addition, significant environmental benefits can be expected.

  4. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  5. Economic viability of anaerobic digestion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wellinger, A.

    1996-01-01

    The industrial application of anaerobic digestion is a relatively new, yet proven waste treatment technology. Anaerobic digestion reduces and upgrades organic waste, and is a good way to control air pollution as it reduces methane and nitrous gas emissions. For environmental and energy considerations, anaerobic digestion is a nearly perfect waste treatment process. However, its economic viability is still in question. A number of parameters - type of waste (solid or liquid), digester system, facility size, product quality and end use, environmental requirements, cost of alternative treatments (including labor), and interest rates - define the investment and operating costs of an anaerobic digestion facility. Therefore, identical facilities that treat the same amount and type of waste may, depending on location, legislation, and end product characteristics, reveal radically different costs. A good approach for evaluating the economics of anaerobic digestion is to compare it to treatment techniques such as aeration or conventional sewage treatment (for industrial wastewater), or composting and incineration (for solid organic waste). For example, the cost (per ton of waste) of in-vessel composting with biofilters is somewhat higher than that of anaerobic digestion, but the investment costs 1 1/2 to 2 times more than either composting or anaerobic digestion. Two distinct advantages of anaerobic digestion are: (1) it requires less land than either composting or incinerating, which translates into lower costs and milder environmental and community impacts (especially in densely populated areas); and (2) it produces net energy, which can be used to operate the facility or sold to nearby industries.

  6. Economic viability of anaerobic digestion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wellinger, A.

    1995-11-01

    The industrial application of anaerobic digestion is a relatively new, yet proven waste treatment technology. Anaerobic digestion reduces and upgrades organic waste, and is a good way to control air pollution as it reduces methane and nitrous gas emissions. For environmental and energy considerations, anaerobic digestion is a nearly perfect waste treatment process. However, its economic viability is still in question. A number of parameters-type of waste (solid or liquid), digester system, facility size, product quality and end use, environmental requirements, cost of alternative treatments (including labor), and interest rates-define the investment and operating costs of anaerobic digestion facility. Therefore, identical facilities that treat the same amount and type of waste may, depending on location, legislation, and end product characteristics, reveal radically different costs. A good approach for evaluating the economics of anaerobic digestion is to compare it to treatment techniques such as aeration or conventional sewage treatment (for industrial wastewater), or composting and incineration (for solid organic waste). For example, the cost (per ton of waste) of in-vessel composting with biofilters in somewhat higher than that of anaerobic digestion, but the investment costs 11/2 to 2 times more than either composting or anaerobic digestion. Two distinct advantages of anaerobic digestion are: (1) it requires less land than either composting or incinerating, which translates into lower costs and milder environmental and community impacts (especially in densely populated areas); and (2) it produces net energy, which can be used to operate the facility or sold to nearby industries.

  7. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  8. Use of Time-Aggregated Data in Economic Screening Analyses of Combined Heat and Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hudson II, Carl Randy

    2004-09-01

    Combined heat and power (CHP) projects (also known as cogeneration projects) usually undergo a series of assessments and viability checks before any commitment is made. A screening analysis, with electrical and thermal loads characterized on an annual basis, may be performed initially to quickly determine the economic viability of the proposed project. Screening analyses using time-aggregated data do not reflect several critical cost influences, however. Seasonal and diurnal variations in electrical and thermal loads, as well as time-of-use utility pricing structures, can have a dramatic impact on the economics. A more accurate economic assessment requires additional detailed data on electrical and thermal demand (e.g., hourly load data), which may not be readily available for the specific facility under study. Recent developments in CHP evaluation tools, however, can generate the needed hourly data through the use of historical data libraries and building simulation. This article utilizes model-generated hourly load data for four potential CHP applications and compares the calculated cost savings of a CHP system when evaluated on a time-aggregated (i.e., annual) basis to the savings when evaluated on an hour-by-hour basis. It is observed that the simple, aggregated analysis forecasts much greater savings (i.e., greater economic viability) than the more detailed hourly analysis. The findings confirm that the simpler tool produces results with a much more optimistic outlook, which, if taken by itself, might lead to erroneous project decisions. The more rigorous approach, being more reflective of actual requirements and conditions, presents a more accurate economic comparison of the alternatives, which, in turn, leads to better decision risk management.

  9. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  10. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  11. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  12. CMI Course Inventory: Mineral Economics and Business | Critical...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mineral Economics and Business Mineral Economics and Business Of the six CMI Team members that are educational institutions, two offer courses in Mineral Economics and Business. ...

  13. Survey of the Economics of Hydrogen Technologies | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Survey of the Economics of Hydrogen Technologies Survey of the Economics of Hydrogen Technologies Survey of the Economics of Hydrogen Technologies PDF icon 27079.pdf More Documents ...

  14. Use Feedwater Economizers for Waste Heat Recovery | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Use Feedwater Economizers for Waste Heat Recovery This tip sheet on feedwater economizers ... STEAM TIP SHEET 3 PDF icon Use Feedwater Economizers for Waste Heat Recovery (January ...

  15. Iowa Department of Economic Development | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Department of Economic Development Jump to: navigation, search Name: Iowa Department of Economic Development Place: Des Moines, Iowa Zip: 50309 Product: Iowa economic development...

  16. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  17. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  18. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  19. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  3. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  4. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  5. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  6. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  7. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  8. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  9. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  10. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  11. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  12. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvén waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  13. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  14. Workforce and Economic Development | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Workforce and Economic Development Workforce and Economic Development Slides presented in the "What's Working in Residential Energy Efficiency Upgrade Programs Conference - Promising Approaches and Lessons Learned" on May 20, 2011 in Washington, D.C. PDF icon Workforce and Economic Development for BPI Auditing More Documents & Publications What's Working in Residential Energy Efficiency Upgrade Programs - Promising Approaches and Lessons Learned Efficiency First - Contractor

  15. Sandia National Laboratories: News: Economic Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impact Sandia National Laboratories has a robust and widespread economic impact. Spending by the Labs exceeds $2 billion a year. Nearly $1 billion goes to the procurement of goods and services nationally. Much of the remainder is spent on salaries. Explore the links below to learn more about the specific ways Sandia is making a difference at our headquarters in New Mexico and our second principal laboratory in California. New Mexico Economic Impact 2015 Download (PDF 10 MB) 2014

  16. Community Economic Analysis Guide | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economic Analysis How-to manual AgencyCompany Organization: R. Hustedde, R. Shaffer, G. Pulver Phase: Create a Vision, Determine Baseline User Interface: Website Website:...

  17. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis Algae Platform Review March 24, 2015 Alexandria, VA Ryan Davis National Renewable Energy Laboratory This presentation does not contain any ...

  18. Photovoltaics Economic Calculator (United States) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    (United States) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Photovoltaics Economic Calculator (United States) Focus Area: Solar Topics: System & Application...

  19. International Economic Platform for Renewable Energies IWR |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Platform for Renewable Energies IWR Jump to: navigation, search Name: International Economic Platform for Renewable Energies (IWR) Place: Mnster, Germany Zip: 48159 Sector:...

  20. CAIED Tribal Economic Development Outlook Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    How will the tribal economy do this year? What will impact your bottom line? What does the tribal economic future look like?

  1. Economic Impacts and Business Opportunities | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impacts and Business Opportunities NREL contributes to the local and national economy in various ways. We are one of the largest employers in Jefferson County, Colorado,...

  2. Technical Demonstration and Economic Validation of Geothermal...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    OilGas Wells in Texas Technical Demonstration and Economic Validation of Geothermal-Produced Electricity from Coproduced Water at Existing OilGas Wells in Texas Technical ...

  3. "Conflict Between Economic Growth and Environmental Protection...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    9, 2012, 4:15pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium "Conflict Between Economic Growth and Environmental Protection", Dr. Bryan Czech, resident, Center for the Advancement of the Steady State...

  4. Reservation Economic Summit: Nevada | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    over the phases of the project. Download the RES 2012 presentation. Addthis Related Articles Reservation Economic Summit: Nevada Indian Energy & Energy Infrastructure to be...

  5. CAIED Tribal Economic Development Outlook Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Center for American Indian Economic Development (CAIED) is hosting a conference on the impact that business and the economy will have on the next year for Tribes.

  6. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  7. Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly Tool to Calculate Economic Impacts from Wind Projects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2009-02-26

    Brochure on the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for calculating the economic impacts of wind development.

  8. Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (Postcard)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the Jobs and Economic Development Benefits model. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the Jobs and Economic Development Benefits model section on the Wind Powering America website.

  9. Oil and economic performance in industrial countries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1980-01-01

    The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have experienced slower economic growth and periods of discontinuity in the energy market since the 1973-74 oil embargo. A review of this phenomenon examines changes in the market during the 1960s and 70s, linkages between oil prices and economic performance, and appropriate policy responses. When price elasticities are calculated over time, recent US economic behavior appears to have both historical and cross-sountry consistency. Little flexibility is seen in the available energy-using technologies for producing goods and services, while energy-using capital has been sluggish. Dr. Nordhaus advocates high oil price and high tax policies as the best way to limit demand without slowing economic growth. (DCK)

  10. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  11. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  12. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  13. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  14. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  15. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  16. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  17. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  18. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  19. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  20. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  1. Petrographic characterization of economizer fly ash

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valentim, B.; Hower, J.C.; Soares, S.; Guedes, A.; Garcia, C.; Flores, D.; Oliveira, A.

    2009-11-15

    Policies for reducing NOx emissions have led power plants to restrict O{sub 2}, resulting in high-carbon fly ash production. Therefore, some potentially useful fly ash, such as the economizer fly ash, is discarded without a thorough knowledge of its composition. In order to characterize this type of fly ash, samples were collected from the economizer Portuguese power plant burning two low-sulfur bituminous coals. Characterization was also performed on economizer fly ash subsamples after wet sieving, density and magnetic separation. Analysis included atomic absorption spectroscopy, loss-on-ignition, scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, optical microscopy, and micro-Raman spectroscopy.

  2. Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humidity Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shehabi, Arman; Tschudi, William; Gadgil, Ashok

    2007-03-06

    Data centers require continuous air conditioning to address high internal heat loads (heat release from equipment) and maintain indoor temperatures within recommended operating levels for computers. Air economizer cycles, which bring in large amounts of outside air to cool internal loads when weather conditions are favorable, could save cooling energy. There is reluctance from many data center owners to use this common cooling technique, however, due to fear of introducing pollutants and potential loss of humidity control. Concerns about equipment failure from airborne pollutants lead to specifying as little outside air as permissible for human occupants. To investigate contamination levels, particle monitoring was conducted at 8 data centers in Northern California. Particle counters were placed at 3 to 4 different locations within and outside of each data center evaluated in this study. Humidity was also monitored at many of the sites to determine how economizers affect humidity control. Results from this study indicate that economizers do increase the outdoor concentration in data centers, but this concentration, when averaged annually, is still below current particle concentration limits. Study results are summarized below: (1) The average particle concentrations measured at each location, both outside and at the servers, are shown in Table 1. Measurements show low particle concentrations at all data centers without economizers, regardless of outdoor particle concentrations. Particle concentrations were typically an order of magnitude below both outside particle concentrations and recently published ASHRAE standards. (2) Economizer use caused sharp increases in particle concentrations when the economizer vents were open. The particle concentration in the data centers, however, quickly dropped back to pre-economizer levels when the vents closed. Since economizers only allow outside air part of the time, the annual average concentrations still met the ASHRAE standards. However, concentration were still above the levels measured in data centers that do not use economizers (3) Current filtration in data centers is minimal (ASHRAE 40%) since most air is typically recycled. When using economizers, modest improvements in filtration (ASHRAE 85%) can reduce particle concentrations to nearly match the level found in data centers that do not use economizers. The extra cost associated with improve filters was not determined in this study. (4) Humidity was consistent and within the ASHRAE recommended levels for all data centers without economizers. Results show that, while slightly less steady, humidity in data centers with economizers can also be controlled within the ASHRAE recommended levels. However, this control of humidity reduces energy savings by limiting the hours the economizer vents are open. (5) The potential energy savings from economizer use has been measured in one data center. When economizers were active, mechanical cooling power dropped by approximately 30%. Annual savings at this center is estimated within the range of 60-80 MWh/year, representing approximately a 5% savings off the mechanical energy load of the data center. Incoming temperatures and humidity at this data center were conservative relative to the ASHRAE acceptable temperature and humidity ranges. Greater savings may be available if higher temperature humidity levels in the data center area were permitted. The average particle concentrations measured at each of the eight data center locations are shown in Table 1. The data centers ranged in size from approximately 5,000 ft{sup 2} to 20,000 ft{sup 2}. The indoor concentrations and humidity in Table 1 represents measurements taken at the server rack. Temperature measurements at the server rack consistently fell between 65-70 F. The Findings section contains a discussion of the individual findings from each center. Data centers currently operate under very low contamination levels. Economizers can be expected to increase the particle concentration in data centers, but the increase appears to still be

  3. COLLOQUIUM: Sustainability Economics | Princeton Plasma Physics...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    November 24, 2015, 4:15pm to 5:30pm MBG AUDITORIUM COLLOQUIUM: Sustainability Economics James Morris Rutgers University It's easy to agree that managing resources in a sustainable ...

  4. Life assessments of a boiler economizer unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lichti, K.A.; Thomas, C.W.; Wilson, P.T.; Julian, W.

    1997-09-01

    An economizer which experienced pitting corrosion during a cleaning accident was subject to recurring corrosion fatigue failures. A condition assessment was undertaken to assess the risk of further failures through metallurgical assessment, extreme value pitting assessments, and on-site NDT condition assessment with on-site extreme value pitting analysis. This was followed by a fatigue life assessment in accordance with PD6493. Condition assessment work and lifetime prediction progressed from initial failure investigation through to final recommendations in a stepwise process. Each stage of the work was followed by a review of the findings and an economic assessment of the alternative options i.e. continue with assessment, full economizer replacement or partial replacement. Selective replacement of a portion of the economizer was recommended.

  5. Puerto Rico- Economic Development Incentives for Renewables

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 2008 Economic Incentives for the Development of Puerto Rico Act (EIA) provides a wide array of tax credits and incentives that enable local and foreign companies dedicated to certain business...

  6. Economic Aspects of Small Modular Reactors

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The potential for SMR deployment will be largely determined by the economic value that these power plants would provide to interested power producers who would evaluate their prospects in relation...

  7. An Economic Engine for Washington State

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    pnnl.gov An Economic Engine for Washington State When Washington State leaders share their visions for a vibrant future, certain priorities rise to the top: jobs, education, and an...

  8. Techno-Economics & Life Cycle Assessment (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dutta, A.; Davis, R.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) capabilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and describes the value of working with NREL on TEA and LCA.

  9. Tribal Energy and Economic Development Webinar Series

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs, in partnership with Western Area Power Administration (Western), is pleased to continue its sponsorship of the DOE Tribal Energy and Economic Development Webinar Series for 2016.

  10. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  11. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  12. Lab scientists recognized for economic development efforts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    scientists recognized for economic development efforts Community Connections: Your link to news and opportunities from Los Alamos National Laboratory Latest Issue:May 2016 all issues All Issues » submit Lab scientists recognized for economic development efforts Program provides regional businesses with expert assistance December 1, 2013 Winner of the 2013 Principal Investigator Award is Andy McCown Winner of a 2013 Principal Investigator Award is Andy McCown (at right, with pie), of Energy

  13. Wind Energy and Economic Development in Nebraska

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.

    2009-06-01

    This fact sheet summarizes a recent report by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Economic Development Benefits from Wind Power in Nebraska: A Report for the Nebraska Energy Office, which focuses on the estimated economic development impacts in Nebraska from development and operation of wind power in the state as envisioned in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030.

  14. National Institute of Economic and Industry Research

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    scale export of East Coast Australia natural gas: Unintended consequences National Institute of Economic and Industry Research 1 This note summarizes the major conclusions of the NIEIR study referenced here. Many major projects to export Liquefied Natural Gas from Eastern Australia have been approved and will start to operate over the next several years. This will significantly impact the domestic supply of natural gas. The National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) has done an

  15. Economic Benefits, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Reductions, and Water Conservation Benefits from 1,000 Megawatts (MW) of New Wind Power in Maine (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy?s Wind Powering America Program is committed to educating state-level policymakers and other stakeholders about the economic, CO2 emissions, and water conservation impacts of wind power. This analysis highlights the expected impacts of 1000 MW of wind power in Maine. Although construction and operation of 1000 MW of wind power is a significant effort, six states have already reached the 1000-MW mark. We forecast the cumulative economic benefits from 1000 MW of development in Maine to be $1.3 billion, annual CO2 reductions are estimated at 2.8 million tons, and annual water savings are 1,387 million gallons.

  16. Economic Benefits, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Reductions, and Water Conservation Benefits from 1,000 Megawatts (MW) of New Wind Power in North Carolina (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy?s Wind Powering America Program is committed to educating state-level policymakers and other stakeholders about the economic, CO2 emissions, and water conservation impacts of wind power. This analysis highlights the expected impacts of 1000 MW of wind power in North Carolina. Although construction and operation of 1000 MW of wind power is a significant effort, seven states have already reached the 1000-MW mark. We forecast the cumulative economic benefits from 1000 MW of development in North Carolina to be $1.1 billion, annual CO2 reductions are estimated at 2.9 million tons, and annual water savings are 1,558 million gallons.

  17. National Reservation Economic Summit 2016 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    National Reservation Economic Summit 2016 National Reservation Economic Summit 2016 March 21, 2016 9:00AM PDT to March 24, 2016 5:00PM PDT National Reservation Economic Summit (RES

  18. Part_3_Minority_Economic_Impact.pdf | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Part3MinorityEconomicImpact.pdf Part3MinorityEconomicImpact.pdf PDF icon Part3MinorityEconomicImpact.pdf More Documents & Publications RFA-14-0002 - In the Matter of ...

  19. Solar Energy Education. Home economics: teacher's guide. Field...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Home economics: teacher's guide. Field test edition. Includes glossary Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Solar Energy Education. Home economics: teacher's guide. Field ...

  20. Wind Powering America Webinar: Wind Power Economics: Past, Present...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Powering America Webinar: Wind Power Economics: Past, Present, and Future Trends Wind Powering America Webinar: Wind Power Economics: Past, Present, and Future Trends November ...

  1. Feasibility Study of Economics and Performance of Geothermal...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Feasibility Study of Economics and Performance of Geothermal Power Generation at the ... * www.nrel.gov Feasibility Study of Economics and Performance of Geothermal Power ...

  2. Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current ... Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current ...

  3. JBEI Updates Techno-Economic Modeling Tools for Biofuels

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... improved versions of a techno-economic model created in 2010 to accelerate development of next generation biofuels that are economically competitive with petroleum-based fuels. ...

  4. 2014/2015 Economic Dispatch and Technological Change Report to...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2015 Economic Dispatch and Technological Change Report to Congress Now Available 20142015 Economic Dispatch and Technological Change Report to Congress Now Available September 3, ...

  5. The STEM Promise: Opportunities for Economic Empowerment. Join...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The STEM Promise: Opportunities for Economic Empowerment. Join the Conversation on April 8. The STEM Promise: Opportunities for Economic Empowerment. Join the Conversation on April ...

  6. Techno-Economic Boundary Analysis of Biological Pathways to Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Techno-Economic Boundary Analysis of Biological Pathways to Hydrogen Production (2009) Techno-Economic Boundary Analysis of Biological Pathways to Hydrogen Production (2009) ...

  7. Our Impending Energy, Climate, and Economic-Development Crisis...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Our Impending Energy, Climate, and Economic-Development Crisis Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Our Impending Energy, Climate, and Economic-Development Crisis You are ...

  8. Economic Potential of CHP in Detroit Edison Service Area: The...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Potential of CHP in Detroit Edison Service Area: The Customer Perspective, June 2003 Economic Potential of CHP in Detroit Edison Service Area: The Customer Perspective, ...

  9. White House Council of Economic Advisers and Energy Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    White House Council of Economic Advisers and Energy Department Release New Report on Resiliency of Electric Grid During Natural Disasters White House Council of Economic Advisers ...

  10. Greening Federal Facilities: An Energy, Environmental, and Economic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Economic Resource Guide for Federal Facility managers and Designers; Second Edition Greening Federal Facilities: An Energy, Environmental, and Economic Resource ...

  11. Economic Impacts Associated With Commercializing Fuel Cell Electric...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Road Map Using the JOBS H2 Model Economic Impacts Associated With Commercializing ... This report by Argonne National Laboratory summarizes an analysis of the economic impacts ...

  12. Analysis of Burnup and Economic Potential of Alternative Fuel...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Analysis of Burnup and Economic Potential of Alternative Fuel Materials in Thermal Reactors Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Analysis of Burnup and Economic Potential of ...

  13. Economic Analysis for Conceptual Design of Supercritical O2-Based...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Economic Analysis for Conceptual Design of Supercritical O2-Based PC Boiler Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Economic Analysis for Conceptual Design of Supercritical ...

  14. Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power ...

  15. Economic Impact of Fuel Cell Deployment in Forklifts and for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Impact of Fuel Cell Deployment in Forklifts and for Backup Power under the ... This report by Argonne National Laboratory presents estimates of economic impacts ...

  16. Economic Systems Modeling for Laser IFE and the Potential advantages...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: Economic Systems Modeling for Laser IFE and the Potential advantages of Fast Ignition Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Economic Systems Modeling for Laser IFE ...

  17. Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, Final Evaluation Volume 2 Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, ...

  18. DOE Announces Webinars on Energy Planning for Tribal Economic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Planning for Tribal Economic Development and Water Efficiency and Energy Savings DOE Announces Webinars on Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development and Water Efficiency and ...

  19. Solar Energy Education. Home economics: student activities. Field...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Solar Energy Education. Home economics: student activities. Field test edition Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Solar Energy Education. Home economics: ...

  20. Taiwan Institute of Economic Research | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economic Research Jump to: navigation, search Name: Taiwan Institute of Economic Research Place: Taipei, Taiwan Product: Idependent research institute engaged in research on...

  1. Economic Impact of Fuel Cell Deployment in Forklifts and for...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impact of Fuel Cell Deployment in Forklifts and for Backup Power under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Title Economic Impact of Fuel Cell Deployment in...

  2. Community Economic Analysis: A How To Guide | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Name: Community Economic Analysis: A How To Guide AgencyCompany Organization: Ronald J. Hustedde Partner: Ron Shaffer Sector: Energy Focus Area: Economic Development Phase:...

  3. Energy Storage Systems 2007 Peer Review - Economics Presentations...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economics Presentations Energy Storage Systems 2007 Peer Review - Economics Presentations The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) held an annual peer review on September ...

  4. Tribal Renewable Energy Webinar: Energy and Economic Success...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy and Economic Success Studies Tribal Renewable Energy Webinar: Energy and Economic ... feasibility of energy efficiency and renewable energy installations, and demonstrated ...

  5. Economic Environment 0 Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO, Sage Policy...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Environment 0 Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO, Sage Policy Group, Inc. Economic Environment 0 Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO, Sage Policy Group, Inc. Topics Discussed: Real GDP ...

  6. Tribal Energy and Economic Development Webinar Series | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Training Tribal Energy and Economic Development Webinar Series Tribal Energy and Economic Development Webinar Series The DOE Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs, in...

  7. Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five Methane Reduction Scenarios Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five Methane Reduction Scenarios ...

  8. Development of a Secure, Economic and Environmentally friendly...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Secure, Economic and Environmentally friendly Modern Power System (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Development of a Secure, Economic and...

  9. Biofuels Techno-Economic Models | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Techno-Economic Models Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Biofuels Techno-Economic Models AgencyCompany Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory...

  10. Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Business, Economic Development, and Tourism Jump to: navigation, search Name: Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism Address: P.O. Box 2359 Place:...

  11. Energy Economic Environmental Consultants e3c | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name: Energy Economic & Environmental Consultants (e3c) Place: Albuquerque, New Mexico Zip: 87111 Sector: Services Product: E3c, Inc. has provided economic consulting...

  12. Community and Economic Development Association of Cook County...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Economic Development Association of Cook County (CEDA) Jump to: navigation, search Name: Community and Economic Development Association of Cook County (CEDA) Place: Chicago, IL...

  13. Economic Community of West African States | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economic Community of West African States Jump to: navigation, search Name: Economic Community of West African States Address: 101, Yakubu Gowon Crescent, Asokoro District Place:...

  14. Center for Economic and Environmental Partnership Inc | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economic and Environmental Partnership Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: Center for Economic and Environmental Partnership Inc Place: Albany, New York Zip: NY 12207-1 Sector:...

  15. The Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance CEMEP Jump to: navigation, search Name: The Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance (CEMEP) Place: United...

  16. Use Feedwater Economizers for Waste Heat Recovery, Energy Tips...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Use Feedwater Economizers for Waste Heat Recovery A feedwater economizer reduces steam boiler fuel requirements by transferring heat from the fue gas to incoming feedwater. Boiler ...

  17. U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman Highlights the Economic Incentives...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman Highlights the Economic Incentives of Energy Efficiency at the Pittsburgh Energy Summit 2006 U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman Highlights the Economic ...

  18. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional ...

  19. A Low Carbon Economic Strategy for Scotland | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Low Carbon Economic Strategy for Scotland Jump to: navigation, search Name A Low Carbon Economic Strategy for Scotland AgencyCompany Organization Government of Scotland Sector...

  20. Consider Installing a Condensing Economizer | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economizers for Waste Heat Recovery Considerations When Selecting a Condensing Economizer Use Steam Jet Ejectors or Thermocompressors to Reduce Venting of Low-Pressure Steam

  1. Comments of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies Comments of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies The Media and Technology Institute and the Climate Change Initiative ...

  2. Nepal-Sectoral Climate Impacts Economic Assessment | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Nepal-Sectoral Climate Impacts Economic Assessment (Redirected from Nepal Sectoral Climate impacts Economic Assessment) Jump to: navigation, search Name Nepal Sectoral Climate...

  3. Nepal-Sectoral Climate Impacts Economic Assessment | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Nepal-Sectoral Climate Impacts Economic Assessment Jump to: navigation, search Name Nepal Sectoral Climate impacts Economic Assessment AgencyCompany Organization Climate and...

  4. Economic Evaluation Guide for alternative transportation fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    de Percin, D.; Werner, J.F. Jr.

    1992-12-31

    The production of this Economic Evaluation Guide is one activity of AVFCAP. The guide is intended for use by project managers and fleet operators in the public sector. Public fleets have been identified as one of the most likely areas where ATFs will first gain widespread use, because of existing and impending state and federal legislative mandates, as well as for practical reasons such as centralized servicing and refueling. The purpose of this guide is to provide balanced decision-support information to project managers who are considering conducting, or currently managing, ATF demonstration programs. Information for this guide was gathered as part of a related AVFCAP activity, the development of an Information Resource Database. Economic issues related to the development and implementation of ATF programs at the local government level are extremely complex, and require an analysis of federal policies and national and international economics that is generally beyond the scope of local government project managers. The intent of this guide is to examine the information available on the economic evaluation of ATFs, and identify key elements that will help local governments realistically assess the potential costs and savings of an ATF program. The guide also discusses how these various economic factors are related, and how local government priorities affect how different factors are weighed.

  5. Economic Evaluation Guide for alternative transportation fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    de Percin, D.; Werner, J.F. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The production of this Economic Evaluation Guide is one activity of AVFCAP. The guide is intended for use by project managers and fleet operators in the public sector. Public fleets have been identified as one of the most likely areas where ATFs will first gain widespread use, because of existing and impending state and federal legislative mandates, as well as for practical reasons such as centralized servicing and refueling. The purpose of this guide is to provide balanced decision-support information to project managers who are considering conducting, or currently managing, ATF demonstration programs. Information for this guide was gathered as part of a related AVFCAP activity, the development of an Information Resource Database. Economic issues related to the development and implementation of ATF programs at the local government level are extremely complex, and require an analysis of federal policies and national and international economics that is generally beyond the scope of local government project managers. The intent of this guide is to examine the information available on the economic evaluation of ATFs, and identify key elements that will help local governments realistically assess the potential costs and savings of an ATF program. The guide also discusses how these various economic factors are related, and how local government priorities affect how different factors are weighed.

  6. Standardized wellheads proven economical for subsea operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moreira, C.C.; Silva Paulo, C.A. )

    1994-05-02

    A standardization program for subsea wellheads and completion equipment has made development of Brazil's offshore fields more economical and efficient. The resulting operational flexibility associated with the use of field-proven equipment and procedures saves rig time and can reduce production loss during workovers. Additionally, investments can be rationalized economically by installing part of the completion equipment at the end of the drilling job and then delaying purchase and installation of the christmas tree and the flow lines until installation of the production platform. Savings are also realized from the reduction in the number of spare parts and tools. Moreover, the savings related to improved operations exceed considerably those from equipment acquisition and storage. Thus, the greatest benefit is the operational flexibility. The paper discusses initial standards, the subsea programs, philosophy, implementation, diver-assisted trees, diverless trees, and economics.

  7. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  8. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  9. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  10. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  11. Lessons from the new institutional economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, W.P.

    1997-06-01

    Policy makers should seek to get the structure right ex ante as antitrust may not be effective ex post. It will be important to deal effectively with information asymmetries and to minimize transaction costs. The electric services industry is experiencing a period of rapid change, entrepreneurship, innovation and increased competition. The introduction of direct-access retail competition, for example, is becoming increasingly feasible because of the path-breaking activities of England, Norway, Chile and California. While the basic model of a reformed electric services industry has begun to come into a sharper focus, the techniques and methods that policy makers and regulators will need to use in evaluating electric restructuring plans are less well understood. If regulators and their staffs only use the traditional analytical tools, they could fail to analyze fully the transaction cost implications of alternative market, industry and corporate structures. An appreciation of the implications of the new institutional economics (NIE), of which transaction cost economics (TCE) is an important subset, can provide valuable insights. The new institutional economics: (1) holds that institutions matter and are susceptible to analysis..., (2) is different from but not hostile to orthodoxy, and (3) is an interdisciplinary combination of law, economics, and organization in which economics is the first among equals. This paper surveys several of the analytical tools of the new institutional economics, with an emphasis on the tools that are most relevant to the design of the market, industry and corporate structure of a restructured electric services industry. This article applies ME and TCE tools but does not attempt to provide a comprehensive survey of the issues involved in electric restructuring. Rather, it illustrates how regulators can use the tools of NIE/TCE to evaluate and solve the difficult practical problems that electric restructuring presents.

  12. Economic benefits of an economizer system: Energy savings and reduced sick leave

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisk, William J.; Seppanen, Olli; Faulkner, David; Huang, Joe

    2004-02-01

    This study estimated the health, energy, and economic benefits of an economizer ventilation control system that increases outside air supply during mild weather to save energy. A model of the influence of ventilation rate on airborne transmission of respiratory illnesses was used to extend the limited data relating ventilation rate with illness and sick leave. An energy simulation model calculated ventilation rates and energy use versus time for an office building in Washington, D.C. with fixed minimum outdoor air supply rates, with and without an economizer. Sick leave rates were estimated with the disease transmission model. In the modeled 72-person office building, our analyses indicate that the economizer reduces energy costs by approximately $2000 and, in addition, reduces sick leave. The annual financial benefit of the decrease in sick leave is estimated to be between $6,000 and $16,000. This modeling suggests that economizers are much more cost effective than currently recognized.

  13. ICT reuse in socio-economic enterprises

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ongondo, F.O.; Williams, I.D.; Dietrich, J.; Carroll, C.

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • We analyse ICT equipment reuse operations of socio-economic enterprises. • Most common ICT products dealt with are computers and related equipment. • In the UK in 2010, ?143,750 appliances were reused. • Marketing and legislative difficulties are the common hurdles to reuse activities. • Socio-economic enterprises can significantly contribute to resource efficiency. - Abstract: In Europe, socio-economic enterprises such as charities, voluntary organisations and not-for-profit companies are involved in the repair, refurbishment and reuse of various products. This paper characterises and analyses the operations of socio-economic enterprises that are involved in the reuse of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) equipment. Using findings from a survey, the paper specifically analyses the reuse activities of socio-economic enterprises in the UK from which Europe-wide conclusions are drawn. The amount of ICT products handled by the reuse organisations is quantified and potential barriers and opportunities to their operations are analysed. By-products from reuse activities are discussed and recommendations to improve reuse activities are provided. The most common ICT products dealt with by socio-economic enterprises are computers and related equipment. In the UK in 2010, an estimated 143,750 appliances were reused. However, due to limitations in data, it is difficult to compare this number to the amount of new appliances that entered the UK market or the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment generated in the same period. Difficulties in marketing products and numerous legislative requirements are the most common barriers to reuse operations. Despite various constraints, it is clear that organisations involved in reuse of ICT could contribute significantly to resource efficiency and a circular economy. It is suggested that clustering of their operations into “reuse parks” would enhance both their profile and their products. Reuse parks would also improve consumer confidence in and subsequently sales of the products. Further, it is advocated that industrial networking opportunities for the exchange of by-products resulting from the organisations’ activities should be investigated. The findings make two significant contributions to the current literature. One, they provide a detailed insight into the reuse operations of socio-economic enterprises. Previously unavailable data has been presented and analysed. Secondly, new evidence about the by-products/materials resulting from socio-economic enterprises’ reuse activities has been obtained. These contributions add substantially to our understanding of the important role of reuse organisations.

  14. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  15. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  16. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  17. City of Oxford, Kansas (Utility Company) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Data Utility Id 14276 Utility Location Yes Ownership M NERC Location SPP NERC SPP Yes RTO SPP Yes Operates Generating Plant Yes Activity Generation Yes Activity Distribution Yes...

  18. Harry Potter, Oxford and Nuclear Energy | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    of Energy 11 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation PDF icon es104_dai_2011_o.pdf More Documents & Publications Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: A Combined Experimental and Modeling Approach for the Design of High Coulombic Efficiency Si Electrodes In situ Characterizations of New Battery Materials and the Studies of High Energy Density Li-Air Batteries Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014:

  19. spurring_local_economic_development_clean_energy_programs.doc...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    spurringlocaleconomicdevelopmentcleanenergyprograms.doc spurringlocaleconomicdevelopmentcleanenergyprograms.doc More Documents & Publications Spurring Local Economic...

  20. Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting (SWAMC) highlights the need for Alaska communities to pull together and make a way through challenging fiscal times. Panels and discussion will focus on providing conference attendees with the knowledge they need to pursue new opportunities.

  1. Economic Analysis of Alternative Fuel School Buses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laughlin, M.

    2004-04-01

    This Clean Cities final report provides a general idea of the potential economic impacts of choosing alternative fuels for school bus fleets. It provides information on different school bus types, as well as analysis of the three main types of alternative fuel used in school bus fleets today (natural gas, propane, and biodiesel).

  2. The economic impact of proposed regulations on the discharge of drilling muds and cuttings from the offshore facilities on US undiscovered crude oil reserves

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-01-13

    This paper presents the results of an assessment of the potential economic impact of proposed regulations. on the discharge of drilling fluids (muds) and cuttings on US offshore undiscovered crude oil resources. These regulations include proposed Best Available Technology economically achievable (BAT) and New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) effluent limitations under the Clean Water Act governing the discharge of drilling fluids and drill cuttings from offshore oil and gas drilling operations. The impact of the proposed RAT/NSPS regulations for the drilling fluids and drill cuttings disposal on the cost of funding, developing, and producing Lower-48 offshore undiscovered crude oil resources will depend significantly on operators perceptions on the chances of failing toxicity or static sheen tests. If operators, in economically justifying their projects, assume that the fluids fail one of these tests, thereby prohibiting them from being discharged, up to 11% of the economically recoverable offshore resource would be considered uneconomic to produce. This would amount to 845 million barrels of oil at an oil price around $25 per barrel. On the other hand, if operators are willing co take their chances and see if their fluids fail one of these tests, then, based on EPA`s assumptions concerning forecast fluid use and static sheen and toxicity test failure rates, up to 4% of the offshore undiscovered resource would be impacted, amounting to lost reserves of up to 270 million barrels.

  3. Energy scarcity and economic growth reconsidered

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Uri, N.D.

    1995-05-01

    This analysis is concerned with the effect of energy scarcity on economic growth in the US. After defining the notion of scarcity and introducing two measures of scarcity, namely unit costs and relative energy price, changes in the trend in resource scarcity are investigated for natural gas, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, and crude oil over the most recent three decades. Each of the energy resources became significantly more scarce during the decade of the 1970s in the Malthusian stock scarcity and Malthusian flow scarcity sense. Unit costs exhibit a similar change for natural gas and crude oil but not for bituminous coal and anthracite coal. The situation reversed itself during the 1980s. Natural gas, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, and crude oil all became significantly less scarce during the 1980s than the 1970s. That is, the increase in scarcity as measured by relative energy prices observed during the 1970s was not reversed completely during the 1980s for natural gas and crude oil. Unit costs for natural gas and crude oil demonstrate analogous patterns and test results. Given that change has take place, it has implications for future economic growth to the extent that resource scarcity and economic growth are interrelated. To see whether this is a relevant concern, subsequent to the examination of changing trends in resource scarcity, an objective effort is made to identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy scarcity and economic growth. Relying on cointegration techniques, only for crude oil is there a suggestion that resource scarcity has affected economic growth in the US over the period 1889--1992. 56 refs.

  4. Economic Incentives for Cybersecurity: Using Economics to Design Technologies Ready for Deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vishik, Claire; Sheldon, Frederick T; Ott, David

    2013-01-01

    Cybersecurity practice lags behind cyber technology achievements. Solutions designed to address many problems may and do exist but frequently cannot be broadly deployed due to economic constraints. Whereas security economics focuses on the cost/benefit analysis and supply/demand, we believe that more sophisticated theoretical approaches, such as economic modeling, rarely utilized, would derive greater societal benefits. Unfortunately, today technologists pursuing interesting and elegant solutions have little knowledge of the feasibility for broad deployment of their results and cannot anticipate the influences of other technologies, existing infrastructure, and technology evolution, nor bring the solutions lifecycle into the equation. Additionally, potentially viable solutions are not adopted because the risk perceptions by potential providers and users far outweighs the economic incentives to support introduction/adoption of new best practices and technologies that are not well enough defined. In some cases, there is no alignment with redominant and future business models as well as regulatory and policy requirements. This paper provides an overview of the economics of security, reviewing work that helped to define economic models for the Internet economy from the 1990s. We bring forward examples of potential use of theoretical economics in defining metrics for emerging technology areas, positioning infrastructure investment, and building real-time response capability as part of software development. These diverse examples help us understand the gaps in current research. Filling these gaps will be instrumental for defining viable economic incentives, economic policies, regulations as well as early-stage technology development approaches, that can speed up commercialization and deployment of new technologies in cybersecurity.

  5. Considerations When Selecting a Condensing Economizer | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Considerations When Selecting a Condensing Economizer Considerations When Selecting a Condensing Economizer This tip sheet lays out considerations when selecting condensing economizers as part of optimized steam systems. STEAM TIP SHEET #26B PDF icon Considerations When Selecting a Condensing Economizer (January 2012) More Documents & Publications Consider Installing a Condensing Economizer Steam System Survey Guide Improving Steam System Performance: A Sourcebook for Industry,

  6. 2016 Tribal Energy and Economic Development January Webinar: Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Planning for Tribal Economic Development | Department of Energy January Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development 2016 Tribal Energy and Economic Development January Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development The Office of Indian Energy, in partnership with Western Area Power Administration, hosted a webinar on Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, about tools and resources available to establish a clean, diverse, and

  7. 2016 Tribal Energy and Economic Development March Webinar: Transmission and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grid Basics for Tribal Economic and Energy Development | Department of Energy March Webinar: Transmission and Grid Basics for Tribal Economic and Energy Development 2016 Tribal Energy and Economic Development March Webinar: Transmission and Grid Basics for Tribal Economic and Energy Development The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Indian Energy, in partnership with Western Area Power Administration (Western), hosted a webinar on "Transmission and Grid Basics for Tribal Economic

  8. Founding Legislation - Office of Minority Economic Impact | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Founding Legislation - Office of Minority Economic Impact Founding Legislation - Office of Minority Economic Impact The Office of Minority Economic Impact, now titled the Office of Economic Impact and Diversity, was established in Fiscal Year 1979 pursuant to Section 641, Title VI, Part 3 of the National Energy Conservation Policy Act of 1978. The following document is a copy of the legislative mandate of the Office of Minority Economic Impact. It includes: Establishing a Director

  9. Jobs and Economic Impacts Reports | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Information Resources » Technical Publications » Jobs and Economic Impacts Reports Jobs and Economic Impacts Reports Find analysis reports about jobs and other economic impacts resulting from fuel cell deployment in transportation and early market applications. Economic Impacts Associated with Commercializing Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles in California: An Analysis of the California Road Map Using the JOBS H2 Model (Argonne National Laboratory, December 2014) Economic Impact of Fuel Cell

  10. Studies Conclude Significant Economic Impact of OREM | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Studies Conclude Significant Economic Impact of OREM Studies Conclude Significant Economic Impact of OREM February 12, 2016 - 11:00am Addthis Cover of the summary document exploring OREM's economic impact. Cover of the summary document exploring OREM's economic impact. OAK RIDGE, Tenn., February 12, 2016 - The Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy has published two reports highlighting the economic impacts of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management

  11. Battery Ownership Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Economics of Electrified Vehicles and Related Infrastructure (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Keefe, M.; Brooker, A.; Johnson, C.; Mendelsohn, M.; Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

    2010-11-01

    This presentation uses a vehicle simulator and economics model called the Battery Ownership Model to examine the levelized cost per mile of conventional (CV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in comparison with the cost to operate an electric vehicle (EV) under a service provider business model. The service provider is assumed to provide EV infrastructure such as charge points and swap stations to allow an EV with a 100-mile range to operate with driving profiles equivalent to CVs and HEVs. Battery cost, fuel price forecast, battery life, and other variables are examined to determine under what scenarios the levelized cost of an EV with a service provider can approach that of a CV. Scenarios in both the United States as an average and Hawaii are examined. The levelized cost of operating an EV with a service provider under average U.S. conditions is approximately twice the cost of operating a small CV. If battery cost and life can be improved, in this study the cost of an EV drops to under 1.5 times the cost of a CV for U.S. average conditions. In Hawaii, the same EV is only slightly more expensive to operate than a CV.

  12. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  13. The 2008/2009 World Economic Crisis: What It Means for U.S. Agricultur...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Biofuels in AEO2013 Workshop U.S. Energy Information Administration March 20, 2013 ... not forecasts - Conditional, long-run scenario - Neutral assumptions for macro, policy, ...

  14. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  16. Study of domestic social and economic impacts of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) commercial development. Volume II. Industry profiles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1981-12-22

    Econoimc profiles of the industries most affected by the construction, deployment, and operation of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) powerplants are presented. Six industries which will contribute materials and/or components to the construction of OTEC plants have been identified and are profiled here. These industries are: steel industry, concrete industry, titanium metal industry, fabricated structural metals industry, fiber glass-reinforced plastics industry, and electrical transmission cable industry. The economic profiles for these industries detail the industry's history, its financial and economic characteristics, its technological and production traits, resource constraints that might impede its operation, and its relation to OTEC. Some of the historical data collected and described in the profile include output, value of shipments, number of firms, prices, employment, imports and exports, and supply-demand forecasts. For most of the profiled industries, data from 1958 through 1980 were examined. In addition, profiles are included on the sectors of the economy which will actualy construct, deploy, and supply the OTEC platforms.

  17. NISAC Agent Based Laboratory for Economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2006-10-11

    The software provides large-scale microeconomic simulation of complex economic and social systems (such as supply chain and market dynamics of businesses in the US economy) and their dependence on physical infrastructure systems. The system is based on Agent simulation, where each entity of inteest in the system to be modeled (for example, a Bank, individual firms, Consumer households, etc.) is specified in a data-driven sense to be individually repreented by an Agent. The Agents interact using rules of interaction appropriate to their roles, and through those interactions complex economic and social dynamics emerge. The software is implemented in three tiers, a Java-based visualization client, a C++ control mid-tier, and a C++ computational tier.

  18. NISAC Agent Based Laboratory for Economics

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-10-11

    The software provides large-scale microeconomic simulation of complex economic and social systems (such as supply chain and market dynamics of businesses in the US economy) and their dependence on physical infrastructure systems. The system is based on Agent simulation, where each entity of inteest in the system to be modeled (for example, a Bank, individual firms, Consumer households, etc.) is specified in a data-driven sense to be individually repreented by an Agent. The Agents interactmore » using rules of interaction appropriate to their roles, and through those interactions complex economic and social dynamics emerge. The software is implemented in three tiers, a Java-based visualization client, a C++ control mid-tier, and a C++ computational tier.« less

  19. Economic evolutions and their resilience: a model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Breitenecker, M.; Gruemm, H.

    1981-04-01

    The report designs a highly aggregated macroeconomic model that can be formulated in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations. The report consists of two parts supplementing each other in a sort of symbiosis. One part is the abstract structure of the equations - that is, the individual dependence of the time variations of the state variables (which span the state space) on the variables themselves (which in this model are E, K, and L). The other part is the parameter space, each point of which is a set of parameter values that have a well-defined economic meaning and thereby endow the system with economic content. (Copyright (c) 1981, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.)

  20. Economics of ethanol fuel for crop production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fontana, C.; Rotz, C.A.

    1982-07-01

    A computer model was developed to simulate conventional and ethanol fuel consumption for crop production. The model was validated by obtaining a close comparison between simulated and actual diesel requirements for farms in Michigan. Parameters for ethanol consumption were obtained from laboratory tests using total fueling of spark-ignition engines and dual-fueling of diesel engines with ethanol. Ethanol fuel will always be more economically used in spark-ignition engines than in dual-fueled diesel engines. The price of gasoline must inflate at least 14 percent/year greater than that of ethanol and diesel must inflate at least 23 percent/year more than ethanol to allow economic use of ethanol as tractor fuel within the next 5 years. (Refs. 13).

  1. WINDExchange: Wind Economic Development Resources and Tools

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Development Resources and Tools This page lists wind-related economic development resources and tools such as publications, Web resources, and news. Search the WINDExchange Database Choose a Type of Information All News Publications Web Resource Videos Start Search Clear Search Date State Type of Information Program Area Title 5/1/2016 News Econ. Dev. Energy and Commerce Departments Announce Lab Partnership Opportunities for U.S. Small Businesses and Manufacturers 4/18/2016 VA Publication Econ.

  2. Native American companies receive economic development grants

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Native American VAF Community Connections: Your link to news and opportunities from Los Alamos National Laboratory Latest Issue:May 2016 all issues All Issues » submit Native American companies receive economic development grants Awards total $60,000 March 1, 2015 Phoebe Suina of High Water Mark, one of this year's Native American VAF recipients. Phoebe Suina of High Water Mark, one of this year's Native American VAF recipients. Contact Community Programs Director Kurt Steinhaus Email Editor

  3. Department of Energy Analysis of Economic Impact

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Department of Energy Analysis of Economic Impact Final Rule, 10 CFR 810 February 3, 2015 1 Executive Summary The Department of Energy (DOE) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) for part 810 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) on Sept 7, 2011 and a Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (SNOPR) on August 2, 2013. This regulation governs the process of export control review and approval for nuclear technology exports from the United States. After careful consideration of all

  4. Assessing the Economic Potential of Advanced Biofuels

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Economic Potential of Advanced Biofuels - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste

  5. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  8. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  9. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  10. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  11. Process Design and Economics for Biochemical Conversion of Lignocellul...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid ...aspen-plus.cfm. 4. Tao, L.; Aden, A. "The Economics of Current and Future Biofuels." ...

  12. London School of Economics and Political Science | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economics and Political Science Jump to: navigation, search Name: London School of Economics and Political Science Place: United Kingdom Zip: WC2A 2AE Product: Centre for research...

  13. Webinar: DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Webinar: DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells (JOBS FC1.1) Model Above is the video recording for the webinar, "DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells ...

  14. File:Wind-turbine-economics-student.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wind-turbine-economics-student.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:Wind-turbine-economics-student.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599...

  15. File:Wind-turbine-economics-teacher.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wind-turbine-economics-teacher.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:Wind-turbine-economics-teacher.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599...

  16. File:Wind-turbine-economics-lp.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wind-turbine-economics-lp.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:Wind-turbine-economics-lp.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599 pixels. Other...

  17. Tribal Renewable Energy Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Planning for Tribal Economic Development Tribal Renewable Energy Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development January 27, 2016 11:00AM to 12:30PM MST Tribal governments ...

  18. Economic Impact of Recovery Act Investments in the Smart Grid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Impact of Recovery Act Investments in the Smart Grid Report Now Available Economic Impact of Recovery Act Investments in the Smart Grid Report Now Available April 25, 2013 ...

  19. THE VALUE OF ECONOMIC DISPATCH A REPORT TO CONGRESS PURSUANT...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    THE VALUE OF ECONOMIC DISPATCH A REPORT TO CONGRESS PURSUANT TO SECTION 1234 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 THE VALUE OF ECONOMIC DISPATCH A REPORT TO CONGRESS PURSUANT TO ...

  20. 2016 Tribal Energy and Economic Development March Webinar: Transmissio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Tribal Economic and Energy Development 2016 Tribal Energy and Economic Development ... Energy Development" Wednesday, March 30, 2016, from 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Mountain Time. ...

  1. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  2. Biomass and Biofuels: Technology and Economic Overview (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aden, A

    2007-05-23

    Presentation on biomass and biofuels technology and economics presented at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, May 23, 2007.

  3. Minority Business and Economic Development | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Business and Economic Development Minority Business and Economic Development The Office of Minority Business and Economic Development is responsible for contract assistance, energy research, development, outreach and technical assistance for minority businesses. The Office was established in November 2013. Karen Atkinson serves as Acting Deputy Director of the Office of Minority Business and Economic Development. Get in touch: Email us at diversity@hq.doe.gov or call (202) 586-8383. Stay in

  4. Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and biochemical conversion. Photo of two algae raceway ponds that show large-scale algae biomass production in the form of two oval-shaped pools filled with dark green liquid and a paddle-wheel in each pool that is agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno-Economic Analysis group employs

  5. Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation...

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Construction- and Operations-related Economic Activity from 1,800 MW of New Natural Gas Generation ......

  6. Governor Haslam touts Oak Ridge's economic possibilities | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Governor Haslam touts Oak Ridge's economic possibilities Governor Haslam touts Oak Ridge's economic possibilities March 24, 2014 - 12:00pm Addthis Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam, at ETTP's fire station, discusses economic opportunities in Oak Ridge. Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam, at ETTP's fire station, discusses economic opportunities in Oak Ridge. On March 21, Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam visited the Energy Department's East Tennessee Technology Park in Oak Ridge. During his

  7. 10th Annual Native American Economic Development Conference | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy 10th Annual Native American Economic Development Conference 10th Annual Native American Economic Development Conference June 6, 2016 7:30AM PDT to June 7, 2016 4:00PM PDT Anaheim, California Disney's Grand Californian Hotel & Spa 1600 Disneyland Dr. Anaheim, CA 92802 The 10th Annual Native American Economic Development Conference is hosting renewable energy sessions, including Tribal Renewable Energy Projects Roundtable: Creating Sovereignty, Energy Independence, Economic

  8. Office of Indian Energy and Economic Development Renewable Energy Program

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ASSISTANT SECRETARY INDIAN AFFAIRS OFFICE OF INDIAN ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAM OFFICE OF INDIAN ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (OIEED) Office of Indian Energy and Economic Development (IEED) seeks to spur job growth and sustainable economies on American Indian reservations. OFFICE OF INDIAN ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (OIEED) OIEED BUSINESS MODEL INDIAN TRUST LANDS RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL Resource Number of Reservations Wind 60 Woody Biomass 179 Waste to

  9. Great Lakes Water Scarcity and Regional Economic Development

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Cameron Davis; Tim Eder; David Ulrich; David Naftzger; Donald J. Wuebbles; Mark C. Petri

    2013-06-06

    Great Lakes Water Scarcity and Regional Economic Development panel at Northwestern University on 10/10/2012

  10. Great Lakes Water Scarcity and Regional Economic Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cameron Davis; Tim Eder; David Ulrich; David Naftzger; Donald J. Wuebbles; Mark C. Petri

    2012-10-10

    Great Lakes Water Scarcity and Regional Economic Development panel at Northwestern University on 10/10/2012

  11. Techno-economic Modeling - Joint Center for Energy Storage Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Techno-economic Modeling October 22, 2015, Accomplishments Building New Battery Systems on the Computer JCESR is applying techno-economic models to project the performance and cost of a wide array of promising new battery systems before they are prototyped. The results from techno-economic modeling establish performance "floors" for discovery science teams looking for new anodes, cathodes, and electrolytes for a ... Read More Techno-economic Modeling October 1, 2015, News Articles

  12. Before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Economic

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management | Department of Energy Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management Before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management Before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management By: Drury Crawley, Office of Energy

  13. Economic Energy Savings Potential in Federal Buildings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Daryl R.; Dirks, James A.; Hunt, Diane M.

    2000-09-04

    The primary objective of this study was to estimate the current life-cycle cost-effective (i.e., economic) energy savings potential in Federal buildings and the corresponding capital investment required to achieve these savings, with Federal financing. Estimates were developed for major categories of energy efficiency measures such as building envelope, heating system, cooling system, and lighting. The analysis was based on conditions (building stock and characteristics, retrofit technologies, interest rates, energy prices, etc.) existing in the late 1990s. The potential impact of changes to any of these factors in the future was not considered.

  14. Path to Economic Sovereignty: Arctic Opportunities

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Path to Economic Sovereignty: Arctic Opportunities Presented by Kip Knudson Office of Alaska Governor Bill Walker Slide Deck prepared by Sean Skaling, Director, Alaska Energy Authority Photo by Chuck Berray 200 remote microgrids spread over large area  Population: 735,000  Area: 660,000 sq. miles  1.2 people/sq. mile  New Jersey has 1,000 times the density  About 200 stand-alone microgrid communities 3 Alaska Electrical Generation Railbelt 72% of Pop 76% of Energy Natural Gas*

  15. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the technical and fuel cycle aspects of advanced (non-light water reactor [LWR]) reactors with the market and production aspects of SMRs. This requires the collection, analysis, and synthesis of multiple unrelated and potentially high-uncertainty data sets from a wide range of data sources. Further, the nature of both economic and nuclear technology analysis requires at least a minor attempt at prediction and prognostication, and the far-term horizon for deployment of advanced nuclear systems introduces more uncertainty. Energy market uncertainty, especially the electricity market, is the result of the integration of commodity prices, demand fluctuation, and generation competition, as easily seen in deregulated markets. Depending on current or projected values for any of these factors, the economic attractiveness of any power plant construction project can change yearly or quarterly. For long-lead construction projects such as nuclear power plants, this uncertainty generates an implied and inherent risk for potential nuclear power plant owners and operators. The uncertainty in nuclear reactor and fuel cycle costs is in some respects better understood and quantified than the energy market uncertainty. The LWR-based fuel cycle has a long commercial history to use as its basis for cost estimation, and the current activities in LWR construction provide a reliable baseline for estimates for similar efforts. However, for advanced systems, the estimates and their associated uncertainties are based on forward-looking assumptions for performance after the system has been built and has achieved commercial operation. Advanced fuel materials and fabrication costs have large uncertainties based on complexities of operation, such as contact-handled fuel fabrication versus remote handling, or commodity availability. Thus, this analytical work makes a good faith effort to quantify uncertainties and provide qualifiers, caveats, and explanations for the sources of these uncertainties. The overall result is that this work assembles the necessary information and establishes the foundation for future analyses using more precise data as nuclear technology advances.

  16. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  17. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L

    2007-02-01

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  18. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW transmission line. In the G+CC+CCS plant, coal is gasified into syngas and CO{sub 2} (which is captured). The syngas is burned in the combined cycle plant to produce electricity. The ACWH facility is operated in such a way that the transmission line is always utilized at its full capacity by backing down the combined cycle (CC) power generation units to accommodate wind generation. Operating the ACWH facility in this manner results in a constant power delivery of 3,000 MW to the load centers, in effect firming-up the wind generation at the project site.

  19. U.S. and EU Unite to Strengthen Economic Integration and Boost Jobs, Growth and Competitiveness

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    WASHINGTON, DC - Today, the Bush Administration hosted the second informal U.S.-EU economic ministerial meeting to discuss transatlantic economic integration and shared economic challenges. ...

  20. Laser-isotope-separation technology. [Review; economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jensen, R.J.; Blair, L.S.

    1981-01-01

    The Molecular Laser Isotope Separation (MLIS) process currently under development is discussed as an operative example of the use of lasers for material processing. The MLIS process, which uses infrared and ultraviolet lasers to process uranium hexafluoride (UF/sub 6/) resulting in enriched uranium fuel to be used in electrical-power-producing nuclear reactor, is reviewed. The economics of the MLIS enrichment process is compared with conventional enrichment technique, and the projected availability of MLIS enrichment capability is related to estimated demands for U.S. enrichment service. The lasers required in the Los Alamos MLIS program are discussed in detail, and their performance and operational characteristics are summarized. Finally, the timely development of low-cost, highly efficient ultraviolet and infrared lasers is shownd to be the critical element controlling the ultimate deployment of MLIS uranium enrichment. 8 figures, 7 tables.

  1. Gas engine driven chiller development and economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koplow, M.D.; Searight, E.F.; Panora, R.

    1986-03-01

    The TECOGEN Division of Thermo Electron Corporation has developed a nominal 150 ton engine driven chiller system under the sponsorship of the Gas Research Institute. The system incorporates an engine directly driving a screw compressor to produce about 130 tons of cooling capacity and a single effect absorption chiller driven by hot water recovered from engine heat to produce another 30 tons of cooling capacity. An economic analysis shows that it will be possible to recover the cost premium of engine driven chiller systems in most US cities in 3 years or less with the O and M savings of these systems when this cost premium is $30 per ton. 4 references, 13 figures, 5 tables.

  2. Economic impacts of irrigation load management controls

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, D.C. )

    1988-01-01

    Irrigators subject to load management controls experience electric power interruptions during periods of peak power demand. The resulting interruptions in irrigation pumping may result in moisture stress-induced crop yield reductions. The results of analysis show a great sensitivity of irrigator incomes to such yield losses. The sensitivity is of such a magnitude that rural electric cooperatives (RECs) would have to offer load management incentives of at least five times their monthly demand charges for irrigators under typical conditions (not oversized irrigation pumps) to remain under load control when irrigated crops are experiencing yield-reducing moisture stress. Incentives of this magnitude cannot be economically justified by most RECs. Thus, provision for the voluntary withdrawal of irrigators from load control is an essential feature of most workable and effective irrigation laod management programs.

  3. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  4. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  5. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  6. NREL: Energy Analysis - Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis Printable Version JEDI Fact Sheet The cover of JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model factsheet. PDF 563 KB The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local and state levels. First developed by NREL's WINDExchange program to model wind energy impacts, JEDI has been expanded to analyze biofuels, coal, concentrating solar power,

  7. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Marine & Hydrokinetic Power Model Analysis JEDI Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models Printable Version About JEDI Marine & Hydrokinetic Power Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from MHK power generation projects. The basic user interface for the MHK model is the same as for all other JEDI models. Results are provided in the same format as other JEDI models allowing for

  8. Office of Economic Impact and Diversity | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Office of Economic Impact and Diversity Minorities in Energy Initiative: Our Ambassadors Minorities in Energy Initiative: Our Ambassadors The Minorities in Energy Initiative, guided by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Economic Impact and Diversity, seeks to create a substantive, sustainable model that connects diverse stakeholders together to address challenges and opportunities for minority engagement in energy economic participation, STEM education, and climate change. Read more

  9. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report (Technical Report) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Status Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the

  10. 2013 Economic Dispatch and Technological Change - Report to Congress (March

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2014) | Department of Energy Economic Dispatch and Technological Change - Report to Congress (March 2014) 2013 Economic Dispatch and Technological Change - Report to Congress (March 2014) In this report, the Department of Energy is responding to Sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which directed the Secretary of Energy to conduct an annual study of economic dispatch and potential ways to improve such dispatch to benefit American electricity consumers. In this 2013

  11. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Interpreting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Results Interpreting Results Sample Results from JEDI. Download a text-version (MS Excel 44 KB) The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models estimate the number of jobs and economic impacts associated with power generation, fuel production, and other projects. Economic activity in input-output models is typically assessed in three categories. NREL's JEDI models classify the first category of results-on-site labor and professional services results-as dollars spent on labor from

  12. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Conventional Hydro Model Conventional Hydro Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Conventional Hydro model was developed to demonstrate the economic benefits associated with conventional hydro power plants in the United States. The primary goal in developing the state level model was to provide a tool for developers, renewable energy advocates, government officials, decision makers and other potential users, to easily identify the local economic impacts associated with

  13. NREL: Water Power Research - Economic and Power System Modeling and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis NREL has a long history of successful research to understand and improve the cost of renewable energy technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research laboratory, NREL is a neutral third party and can provide an unbiased perspective of methodologies and approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects. Deployment and

  14. NREL: Water Power Research - Economic and Power System Modeling and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis NREL's Economic Analysis and power system modeling integrates data from device deployment and programmatic research into deployment and scenario models to quantify the economic and societal benefits of developing cost-competitive marine and hydrokinetic systems. It also identifies policy mechanisms, market designs, and supply chain needs to support various deployment scenarios, provide information and training to potential members of

  15. NREL Estimates Economically Viable U.S. Renewable Generation - News

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Releases | NREL Estimates Economically Viable U.S. Renewable Generation November 19, 2015 Analysts at the Energy Department's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are providing, for the first time, a method for measuring the economic potential of renewable energy across the United States. A study applying this new method found that renewable energy generation is economically viable in many parts of the United States largely due to rapidly declining technology costs. The report,

  16. Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis For Corn Stover | Department of Energy Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis For Corn Stover Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis For Corn Stover This report is an update of NREL's ongoing process design and economic analyses of

  17. Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment This report documents work performed in support of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy's Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) program. The report presents information and results from economic analyses to describe current electricity market conditions

  18. Alternative Fuels Data Center: Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic

    Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)]

    and Environmental Benefits with Propane Buses Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic and Environmental Benefits with Propane Buses to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic and Environmental Benefits with Propane Buses on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic and Environmental Benefits with Propane Buses on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Mesa Unified

  19. Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Final Evaluation Volume 2 | Department of Energy Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, Final Evaluation Volume 2 Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, Final Evaluation Volume 2 Final Report: Savings and Economic Impacts of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, Final Evaluation Volume 2, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, June 2015. Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and

  20. Economic impact analysis for the petroleum refineries NESHAP. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-01

    An economic analysis of the industries affected by the Petroleum Refineries National Emmissions Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) was completed in support of this standard. The industry for which economic impacts was computed was the petroleum refinery industry. Affected refineries must reduce HAP emissions by the level of control required in the standard. Several types of economic impacts, among them price product changes, output changes, job impacts, and effects on foriegn trade, were computed for the selected regulatory alternative.