Powered by Deep Web Technologies
Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

2

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

3

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

4

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

5

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

6

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

7

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

8

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

9

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

10

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

11

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

12

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

13

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

14

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

15

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

16

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

17

Modeling and Analysis Papers - Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation > Table 1 Evaluation > Table 1 Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to 2002 Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO97 AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Total Coal Consumption 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 Total Electricity Sales 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 Production Crude Oil Production 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Natural Gas Production 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 Coal Production 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 10.1 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 Net Natural Gas Imports 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 Net Coal Exports

18

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

19

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA Administrator's Press Briefing on the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - Errata as of 3698 Data from the AEO98 Assumptions to the AEO98 (Nat'Gas...

20

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Annual Energy Outlook Evaluation, 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Evaluation, 2005 1 Outlook Evaluation, 2005 1 Annual Energy Outlook Evaluation, 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes,

22

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

23

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

24

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

25

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

26

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Information Center

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2006. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review, 2006 Report

28

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2008) Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2008. Annual Energy Outlook Restrospective Review, 2008 Report Revisions to Gross Domestic Product and Implications for the Comparisons

29

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9) 9) Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2009) Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2009. Annual Energy Outlook Restrospective Review, 2009 Report pdf images Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Difference between AEO Reference Case Projections

30

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2012...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2012 and Prior Reference Case Projections March 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of...

32

Annual Energy Outlook 2001-Appendix G: Major Assumptions for the Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasts Forecasts Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/ Scenarios - Appendix Table G1 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Formats - PDF, ZIP) - Appendix Tables - Reference Case - 1998 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report - Entire AEO2001 (PDF) - AEO2001 by Chapters (PDF) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts Related Links bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO2001 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 (Only available on the Web) - Regional and more detailed AEO 2001 Reference Case Results - 1998, 2000 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Homepage bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage Appendix G Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Component Modules Major Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2001

33

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2011 - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home > Forecasts & Analysis > Annual Energy Outlook 2011 : Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035

34

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections March 2012 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or

35

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Centers Day 1 Convective Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitudelongitude grid with 80-km grid ...

Nathan M. Hitchens; Harold E. Brooks

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Summary Short?Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energyrelated financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate price bands around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to trade. The Energy Information Administrations (EIA) monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) publishes base case projections for a variety of energy prices that go out 12 to 24 months (every January the STEO forecast is extended through December of the following year). EIA has recognized that all price forecasts are highly uncertain and has described the uncertainty by identifying the market factors that may significantly move prices away from their expected paths, such as economic growth, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behavior, geo-political events, and hurricanes.

unknown authors

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996  

SciTech Connect

This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...

Thomas M. Hamill

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Previous STEO Forecasts: Changes in Forecast from Last Month; STEO Archives; Other EIA Forecasts: Annual Energy Outlook; International Energy Outlook; Thank ...

42

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPCs Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAAs Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Centers (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over the 15-yr common period ...

Peitao Peng; Anthony G. Barnston; Arun Kumar

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

10621088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgssner, G. , and U. K.2005): Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEPs coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in nearreal time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions experimental product from the United States National Weather Service (NWS) providing gridded forecasted

Perez, Richard R.

48

Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Water managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is ...

Holly C. Hartmann; Thomas C. Pagano; S. Sorooshian; R. Bales

2002-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Comparative Forecast Evaluation: Graphical Gaussian Models and Sufficiency Relations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper deals with the comparative evaluation of categorical forecasts supposing that forecasts and observations are continuous variables and have a jointly normal distribution. An information content approach based on the well-established ...

Ulrich Callies

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The fore- cast traffic data for this study is drawn from

Levinson, David M.

54

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993  

SciTech Connect

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

NONE

1993-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

56

Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

Not Available

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.

Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Short-term energy outlook: Annual supplement 1989  

SciTech Connect

This Supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections (Outlook). The purpose is to review the accuracy of the forecasts presented in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. A brief description of the content of each chapter follows below: Chapter 2 evaluates the accuracy of the short-term energy forecasts published in the last 6 issues of the Outlook, for 1988/1989. Chapter 3 discusses the economics of the petrochemical feedstock market, and describes a new model which more fully captures the determinants of feedstock demand. Chapter 4 examines present and proposed new methods of forecasting short-term natural gas prices at the wellhead and spot prices. Chapter 5 discusses the modeling of natural demand in the short term. Chapter 6 discusses regional trends in the demand for fuel by electric utilities. Chapter 7 focuses on industrial coal use trends in recent years. Chapter 8 compares EIA's base case energy projections as published in the Outlook (89/2Q) with recent projections made by three other major forecasting groups. The chapter focuses on macroeconomic assumptions, primary energy demand, and primary energy supply, showing the differences and similarities in the four forecasts.

1989-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

59

Short-term energy outlook: Annual supplement, 1987  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). This volume, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Annual Supplement, (Supplement) discusses major changes in the forecasting methodology, analyzes previous forecast errors, and examines current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts. The principal users of the Supplement are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. Chapter 2 evaluates the accuracy of previous short-term energy forecasts and the major assumptions underlying these forecasts published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook. Chapter 3 compares the EIA's present energy projections with past projections and with recent projections made by other forecasting groups. Chapter 4 analyzes the 1986 increase in residual fuel oil demand after 8 consecutive years of decline. Sectoral analysis shows where and why this increase occurred. Chapter 5 discusses the methodology, estimation, and forecasts of fossil fuel shares used in the generation of electricity. Chapter 6 presents an update of the methodology used to forecast natural gas demand, with an emphasis on sectoral disaggregation. Chapter 7 compares the current use of generation data as a representation of short-term electricity demand with proposed total and sectoral sales equations. 8 refs., 7 figs., 63 tabs.

1987-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

60

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Table 41  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

> Forecasts >Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook> Download Report Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Adobe Acrobat Reader is required for PDF...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Evaluation of Official Western U.S. Seasonal Water Supply Outlooks, 19222002  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis was conducted of almost 5000 operational seasonal streamflow forecast errors across the western United States. These forecasts are for 29 unregulated rivers with diversity in geography and climate. Deterministic evaluations revealed ...

Thomas Pagano; David Garen; Soroosh Sorooshian

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

International Energy Outlook - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas International Energy Outlook 2004 Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2004 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected...

63

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

65

Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The regional single-model-based Aire Limite Adaptation Dynamique Dveloppement InternationalLimited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated and compared with the global ECMWF-EPS to investigate the ...

Yong Wang; Simona Tascu; Florian Weidle; Karin Schmeisser

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Application of DSM evaluation studies to utility forecasting and planning  

SciTech Connect

Utilities and their customers have made substantial investments in utility demand-side management (DSM) programs. These DSM programs also represent a substantial electricity resource. DSM program performance has been studied more systematically in recent years than over any previous period. DSM program evaluations are traditionally targeted to meet the program manager`s need for information on program costs and performance and, more recently, to verify savings to regulators for incentive awards and lost revenue recovery. Yet evaluations may also be used to produce results relevant to utility forecasting and planning. Applying evaluation results is especially important for utilities with substantial current and future commitments to acquiring demand-side resources. This report discusses the application of evaluation results to utility forecasting and planning. The report has three objectives. First, we identify what demand forecasters, DSM forecasters, and resource planners want to learn from evaluations. Second, we identify and describe the major obstacles and problems associated with applying evaluation results and illustrate many of these issues through a specific evaluation application exercise. Finally, we suggest approaches for addressing these major problems. The report summarizes results from interviews with utilities, regulators, and consultants to determine how the industry currently applies evaluation results in forecasting and planning. The report also includes results from case studies of Sacramento Municipal Utility District and Southern California Edison Company, utilities with large DSM programs and active evaluation efforts. Finally, we draw on a specific application exercise in which we used a set of impact evaluations to revise a utility DSM forecast.

Baxter, L.W.

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Winter Fuels Outlook ... (October 1 March 31) for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel bill . Base case . forecast :

69

Evaluation of Prototypical Climate Forecasts: The Sufficiency Relation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The sufficiency relation, originally developed in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, provides a sound basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. The importance of this relation resides in the fact that if ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

United States Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Early Release) | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Early Release) Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Early Release) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: United States Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Early Release) Focus Area: Other Renewable Electricity Topics: Market Analysis Website: www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/ Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/united-states-annual-energy-outlook-2 Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Regulations" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. DeploymentPrograms: Technical Assistance Regulations: Utility/Electricity Service Costs The Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) reference case overview evaluates a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for

71

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

72

Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi , David Levinson  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi ?, David Levinson: Transportation demand forecasting Project evaluation Forecast accuracy Model evaluation a b s t r a c t This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects

Levinson, David M.

73

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels OutlookWinter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Winter Fuels OutlookWinter Fuels Outlook ... for all fossil f elsMarch 31) for all fossil fuels Percent changg()e in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel bill ...

74

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review-Evaluation of Projections in  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)* Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)* The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards-or of sections of legislation that have been enacted but that require implementing regulations or appropriation of funds that are not provided or specified in the legislation itself-are not reflected in the projections, although there are a few exceptions. It is assumed that current laws and regulations that have sunset dates, but which are regularly renewed, are extended for modeling purposes. Thus, the AEO generally provides a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. While the analyses in the AEO focus primarily on a reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and lower and higher energy price cases; more than 30 alternative cases are generally included in the AEO. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases, which address many of the uncertainties inherent in long-term projections.

75

Winter Fuels Outlook Conference 2010  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation at the 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, DC, outlined EIA's current forecast for U.S. crude oil, distillate, natural gas, propane and gasoline supply, demand, and markets over the coming winter season.

2010-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

76

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in nearreal time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...

W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Energy consumption and expenditure projections by income quintile on the basis of the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 forecast  

SciTech Connect

This report presents an analysis of the relative impacts of the base-case scenario used in the Annual Energy Outlook 1997, published by the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, on income quintile groups. Projected energy consumption and expenditures, and projected energy expenditures as a share of income, for the period 1993 to 2015 are reported. Projected consumption of electricity, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas over this period is also reported for each income group. 33 figs., 11 tabs.

Poyer, D.A.; Allison, T.

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Annual Energy Outlook with  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation, 2005 Evaluation, 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Evaluation, 2005 Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2005. Annual Energy Outlook Evaluation, 2005 Report Annual Energy Outlook Evaluation, 2005 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

80

Evaluating Air-Quality Models: Review and Outlook  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the past decade, much attention has been devoted to the evaluation of air-quality models with emphasis on model performance in predicting the high concentrations that are important in air-quality regulations. This paper stems from our belief ...

J. C. Weil; R. I. Sykes; A. Venkatram

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Energy Outlook For NY Energy Forum October 29, 2013 | New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, Administrator Agenda * Winter Fuels Outlook * Drilling Productivity Report * Geopolitical...

82

EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS Richard Perez of the NDFD-based solar radiation forecasts for several climatically distinct locations, the evaluation is now continued by testing the forecasts' end-use operational accuracy, focusing on their ability to accurately

Perez, Richard R.

83

Evaluating a Hybrid PrognosticDiagnostic Model That Improves Wind Forecast Resolution in Complex Coastal Topography  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results from a hybrid approach that combines the forecasts of a mesoscale model with a diagnostic wind model to produce high-resolution wind forecasts in complex coastal orography are evaluated. The simple diagnostic wind model [Winds on ...

Francis L. Ludwig; Douglas K. Miller; Shawn G. Gallaher

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Evaluation of the IRI'S Net Assessment Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 19972001  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) net assessment seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts are evaluated for the 4-yr period from OctoberDecember 1997 to OctoberDecember 2001. These probabilistic forecasts ...

L. Goddard; A. G. Barnston; S. J. Mason

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Short-term energy outlook, Annual supplement 1995  

SciTech Connect

This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of non-transportation energy demand by sector. The empirical analysis involves the short-run energy demand in the residential, commercial, industrial, and electrical utility sectors in US.

1995-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

86

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table of Contents. Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook. Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast . Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance

89

EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook ... March 31) for fossil fuels but not electricity . Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel .

90

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Winter Fuels Outlook for National Association of State Energy Officials . ... for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast)

91

Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2002 Overview  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecasting System database, and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- September 2002 10

92

The outlook for transportation fuel markets this summer ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The price forecast for transportation fuels is highly uncertain, in large part due to the uncertainty in the outlook for crude oil prices.

93

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013 Data Tables  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, ... Annual Energy Outlook 2013. Release Dates: April 15 - May 2, 2013 ...

94

International Energy Outlook 2013 - Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, ... International Energy Outlook 2013. Release Date: July 25, 2013 ...

95

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, ... Annual Energy Outlook 2013. Release Dates: April 15 - May 2, 2013 ...

96

Use of Multiple Verification Methods to Evaluate Forecasts of Convection from Hot- and Cold-Start Convection-Allowing Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study uses both traditional and newer verification methods to evaluate two 4-km grid-spacing Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts: a cold start forecast that uses the 12-km North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) analysis and ...

Derek R. Stratman; Michael C. Coniglio; Steven E. Koch; Ming Xue

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Evaluation of EtaRSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental EtaRegional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Models model output statistics (...

Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...

Ye, Q -z

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

International Energy Outlook 1997  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7) 7) Distribution Category UC-950 International Energy Outlook 1997 April 1997 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Arthur T. Andersen (202/586-1441), Director, Energy Demand and Integration Division;

100

International Energy Outlook 1995  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5) 5) Distribution Category UC-950 International Energy Outlook 1995 May 1995 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Arthur T. Andersen (202/586-1441), Director, Energy Demand and Integration Division;

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Annual Energy Outlook 1999  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9) 9) Annual Energy Outlook 1999 With Projections to 2020 December 1998 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222).

102

Annual Energy Outlook 1998  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) Distribution Category UC-950 Annual Energy Outlook 1998 With Projections to 2020 December 1997 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administra- tion and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other or- ganization. The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Informa- tion Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling

103

Annual Energy Outlook 1996  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

96) 96) Distribution Category UC-950 Annual Energy Outlook 1996 With Projections to 2015 January 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222). General questions may be addressed to Arthur T. Andersen (aanderse@eia.doe.gov, 202/ 586-1130),

104

Annual Energy Outlook 1997  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7) 7) Distribution Category UC-950 Annual Energy Outlook 1997 With Projections to 2015 December 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (AEO97) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222). General questions may be addressed to Arthur T. Andersen (aanderse@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1441),

105

Annual Energy Outlook 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2) 2) December 2001 Annual Energy Outlook 2002 With Projections to 2020 December 2001 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@ eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Scott Sitzer (ssitzer@ eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; Susan H. Holte (sholte@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4838), Director, Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (jkendell@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9646), Director, Oil and Gas Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Technical Advisor. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA's National

106

U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

When EIA's demand forecast is combined with its outlook for production and net imports, distillate stocks are projected to remain low for the rest of the year. - Distillate fuel...

107

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Energy Consumption by Region Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with the projections in IEO2006, which extend to 2030 for the first time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) pro- vides "business as usual" projections to 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy projections to 2025; and Petro- leum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2020. For comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the projections. Comparisons between IEO2006 and IEO2005 extend only to 2025, the last year of the IEO2005 projections. Regional breakouts vary among the different projec- tions, complicating the comparisons. For example, IEO2006, PIRA, and IEA

108

Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

Not Available

1994-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

109

Economic Forecast Report Economic Outlook and Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

volatile prices such as food and energy, is even softer, averaging around 1% for the year. Inflation should in our last report, the rebound in economic activity has been weak and uninspiring with below-trend formation is far below desired level, the overall trend is positive. Despite these improve- ments, we fear

de Lijser, Peter

110

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

111

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Table 1. Summary of Differences between AEO Reference Cases and Realized Outcomes Percent Over- Estimated Average Absolute Percent Difference Percent Over- Estimated Average Absolute Percent Difference Table 3. Gross Domestic Product, Actual vs. Forecasts 34% 5.5% 18% 4.5% Table 4. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts 68% 52.9% 36% 20.8% Table 5. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts 31% 2.9% 44% 1.8% Table 6. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts 51% 4.9% 53% 5.2% Table 7. Petroleum Net Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts 49% 6.4% 51% 3.6% Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts 61% 63.5% 23% 28.9% Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts 38% 6.7% 59% 5.6% Table 10. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts 51% 5.5% 70% 5.8%

112

Evaluating Covariance Matrix Forecasts in a Value-at-Risk Framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Covariance matrix forecasts of financial asset returns are an important component of current practice in financial risk management. A wide variety of models are available for generating such forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate the relative performance of different covariance matrix forecasts using standard statistical loss functions and a value-at-risk (VaR) framework. Using a foreign exchange portfolio, we find covariance matrix forecasts generated from option prices perform best under statistical loss functions, such as mean-squared error. Within a VaR framework, the relative performance of covariance matrix forecasts depends greatly on the VaR models' distributional assumptions. Of the forecasts examined, simple specifications, such as exponentially-weighted moving averages of past observations, perform best with regard to the magnitude of VaR exceptions and regulatory capital requirements. Our results provide empirical support for the commonly-used VaR models based on simple c...

Jose A. Lopez; Christian A. Walter

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model for two frost events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meso-local-scale weather information could be used as a guideline for crop protection to effectively manage and mitigate the effects of frost damage. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the meso-local-scale weather forecasts from the state-of-the-art ... Keywords: Frost protection, Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network, Temperature prediction, Weather Research and Forecasting model

Thara Prabha; Gerrit Hoogenboom

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Performance evaluation of competing forecasting models: A multidimensional framework based on MCDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

So far, competing forecasting models are compared to each other using a single criterion at a time, which often leads to different rankings for different criteria - a situation where one cannot make an informed decision as to which model performs best ... Keywords: Crude oil prices, Forecasting models, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Performance evaluation

Bing Xu; Jamal Ouenniche

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

An Evaluation of the Darwin Area Forecast Experiment Storm Occurrence Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results from real-time forecasting the occurrence of storm activity during break and transition season flow within two 10-km-radius circles for periods up to 3 h in the tropics near Darwin, Australia (12S, 131E), are described. The ...

T. Keenan; R. Potts; T. Stevenson

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in January, April, July, and October for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous forecast errors, compares recent projections by other forecasters, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets (see Short- Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The projections in this volume extend through the fourth quarter of 1990. The forecasts are produced using the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model uses two principal driving variables: a macroeconomic forecast and world oil price assumptions. Macroeconomic forecasts produced by data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic forecast. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project world oil prices. 20 refs., 17 figs., 16 tabs.

1989-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

[Outlook for 1997 in the global oil and gas industries  

SciTech Connect

This section contains 4 small articles which deal with the global outlook on the following: worldwide drilling (Middle East leads the charge); offshore drilling (US Gulf remains hot); worldwide oil production (Producers meet the challenge); and the Canadian outlook (Canada prepares for another brisk year by Hans Maciej). Tables are provided for the 1997 forecast of drilling outside the US, the 1997 forecast of offshore drilling worldwide, world crude oil/condensate production by country in 1995 and 1996, and Canadian drilling forecasts.

NONE

1997-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) against observations made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at the southern ...

Fanglin Yang; Hua-Lu Pan; Steven K. Krueger; Shrinivas Moorthi; Stephen J. Lord

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Evaluation of IRIs Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Extreme 15% Tails  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the quality of real-time seasonal probabilistic forecasts of the extreme 15% tails of the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)...

Anthony G. Barnston; Simon J. Mason

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

A novel multi-scale intensity metric for evaluation of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a new Multi-Scale Intensity (MSI) metric for evaluating Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is presented. The metric consists of the resolvable and observable, low wavenumber intensity represented by the sum of amplitudes of ...

Tomislava Vukicevic; Eric Uhlhorn; Paul Reasor; Bradley Klotz

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Evaluation of the National Hurricane Centers Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability forecast product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for U.S. land-threatening and landfalling ...

Michael E. Splitt; Jaclyn A. Shafer; Steven M. Lazarus; William P. Roeder

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

One: California Economic Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: AN IMPROVED POWER SITUATIONwas sluggish. An improved outlook for consumer spending inforecast compared with the outlook of UCLA's Anderson

Lieser, Tom K

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Annual Energy Outlook 2001  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Homepage Homepage Annual Energy Outlook 2001 With Projections to 2020 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO2001 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses the macroeconomic projections, world oil and natural gas markets, oxygenates in gasoline, distributed electricity generation, electricity industry restructuring, and carbon dioxide emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends.

124

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2 2 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010 213 Appendix F Regional Maps Figure F1. United States Census Divisions Pacific East South Central South Atlantic Middle Atlantic New England West South Central West North Central East North Central Mountain AK WA MT WY ID NV UT CO AZ NM TX OK IA KS MO IL IN KY TN MS AL FL GA SC NC WV PA NJ MD DE NY CT VT ME RI MA NH VA WI MI OH NE SD MN ND AR LA OR CA HI Middle Atlantic New England East North Central West North Central Pacific West South Central East South Central South Atlantic Mountain Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Appendix F Regional Maps Figure F1. United States Census Divisions U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012

125

International Energy Outlook - Electicity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity International Energy Outlook 2004 Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2004 projections. Developing nations in Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 60. World Net Electricity Consumptin, 2001-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 61. World Net Electricity Consumptin by Region, 2001-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data World net electricity consumption is expected nearly double to over the next two decades, according to the International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004) reference case forecast. Total demand for electricity is projected to increase on average by 2.3 percent per year, from 13,290

126

International energy outlook 1994  

SciTech Connect

The International Energy Outlook 1994 (IEO94) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets between 1990 and 2010. The report is provided as a statistical service to assist energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. These forecasts are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Depart. of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO94 projections are based on US and foreign government policies in effect on October 1, 1993-which means that provisions of the Climate Change Action Plan unveiled by the Administration in mid-October are not reflected by the US projections.

Not Available

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

International Energy Outlook 2001 - Highlights  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Highlights picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) World energy consumption is projected to increase by 59 percent from 1999 to 2020. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO2001 reference case forecast. In the reference case projections for the International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001), world energy consumption is projected to increase by 59 percent over a 21-year forecast horizon, from 1999 to 2020. Worldwide energy use grows from 382 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1999 to 607 quadrillion Btu in 2020 (Figure 2 and Table 1). Many developments in 2000 influenced this year’s outlook, including persistently high world oil prices, stronger than anticipated economic recovery in southeast Asia, and

128

International Energy Outlook 2000 - Highlights  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage HIGHLIGHTS World energy consumption is projected to increase by 60 percent from 1997 to 2020. Recent price developments in world oil markets and economic recovery in Southeast Asia have altered projections relative to last year’s report. In the reference case projections for the International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000), world energy consumption increases by 60 percent over a 23-year forecast period, from 1997 to 2020. Energy use worldwide increases from 380 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1997 to 608 quadrillion Btu in 2020 (Figure 2 and Table 1). Many developments in 1999 are reflected in this year’s outlook. Shifting short-term world oil markets, the beginnings

129

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(83/3Q) (83/3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook iuarterly Projections August 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. 20585 t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- iort- nort- lort- '.ort- ort- Tt- .-m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term Term .-Term -Term xrm Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy -OJ.UUK Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

130

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

1994-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

132

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 58 percent from 2001 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO2003 reference case forecast. In the International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) reference case, world energy consumption is projected to increase by 58 percent over a 24-year forecast horizon, from 2001 to 2025. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 404 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2001 to 640 quadrillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 2). As in past editions of this report, the IEO2003 reference case outlook continues to show robust growth in energy consumption among the developing nations of the world (Figure 3). The strongest growth is projected for developing Asia, where demand for energy is expected to more than double over the forecast period. An average annual growth rate of 3 percent is projected for energy use in developing Asia, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total projected increment in world energy consumption and 69 percent of the increment for the developing world alone.

133

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short?Term Energy Outlook February 2013 5 modestly in this forecast, increasing by 50,000 bbl/d (0 ...

134

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short?Term Energy Outlook January 2013 5 Forecast motor gasoline consumption in 2013 and 2014 ...

135

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.

NONE

1995-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

136

International Energy Outlook 1998  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights Growth in energy use is projected worldwide through 2020. The demand for electricity in homes, business, and industry is growing in all regions, as is the demand for petroleum-powered personal transportation. The International Energy Outlook 1998 (IEO98) reference case forecast indicates that by 2020, the world will consume three times the energy it consumed 28 years ago in 1970 (Figure 2). Much of the projected growth in energy consumption is attributed to expectations of rapid increases in energy use in the developing world—especially in Asia. Although the economic downturn in Asia that began in mid-1997 and continues into 1998 has lowered expectations for near-term growth in the region, the forecast still suggests that almost half the world’s projected increase in energy

137

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook 8/13/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance OPEC Production Likely To Remain Low U.S. Reflects World Market Crude Oil Outlook Conclusions Distillate Prices Increase With Crude Oil Distillate Stocks on the East Coast Were Very Low Entering Last Winter Distillate Demand Strong Last Winter More Supply Possible This Fall than Forecast Distillate Fuel Oil Imports Could Be Available - For A Price Distillate Supply/Demand Balance Reflected in Spreads Distillate Stocks Expected to Remain Low Winter Crude Oil and Distillate Price Outlook Heating Oil Outlook Conclusion Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil

138

Disagreement about the Inflation Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserves monetary policy communications strategy. The recent recession has been exceptionally long and difficult with an unusual degree of financial turmoil. In order to stabilize the financial system and restore economic growth, fiscal and monetary policymakers have taken unprecedented actions. In this extraordinary environment, it is not surprising that forecasters views of the economic outlook have shown increasing disparity. In this Economic Letter, we focus on the increased dispersion of inflation forecasts that lately has emerged among the business economists who participate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Interestingly, the nature of this greater disagreement appears to depend on the forecast time horizon. For forecasts over the next year or so, increased dispersion largely reflects the expectations of some forecasters that inflation may move much lowerlikely because this group puts larger weight on the prospect that persistent excess productive capacity and high unemployment will restrain prices over

Sylvain Leduc; Glenn D. Rudebusch; Justin Weidner

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Petcoke and Low-Rank Coal/Lignite Supply Outlook for IGCC Evaluations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Petroleum coke, a by-product of petroleum refining, is used in many industries, with the highest-sulfur forms of petcoke disposed of as fuel for power generation. Because of its high heat content and low moisture, petcoke holds benefits in a fuel blend with lower grade fuels such as lignite for integrated coal gasification. This report reviews the characteristics of petroleum coke, presents its supply and demand outlook, and estimates the relative costs of various coals and petroleum coke at locations in...

2006-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

140

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt;#12;Copyright ©2012 by WVU Research Corporation Unless otherwise noted, data used for this forecast is from IHS Population 2 GlOBAl OUTlOOk 3 Current Trends 3 Forecast 6 UNITED STATES OUTlOOk 9 Global and United States

Mohaghegh, Shahab

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

International Energy Outlook 2006 - Appendix H  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H H International Energy Outlook 2006 Appendix H: Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Energy Consumption by Region Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with the projections in IEO2006, which extend to 2030 for the first time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy projections to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2020. For comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the projections. Comparisons between IEO2006 and IEO2005 extend only to 2025, the last year of the IEO2005 projections.

142

Alternatives to the Chi-Square Test for Evaluating Rank Histograms from Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rank histograms are a commonly used tool for evaluating an ensemble forecasting systems performance. Because the sample size is finite, the rank histogram is subject to statistical fluctuations, so a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is employed to ...

Kimberly L. Elmore

2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Outlook [Caring About Places...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Donlyn Lyndon editor Outlook James F. Fulton publisher T o dn w h i c h they join outlook or lookout carries subtlydesign assistant watchman. Outlook becomes a point of view,

Lyndon, Donlyn

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2012 - DRAFT - June 12, 2012 1 Table B1. Total energy...

145

Annual Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

4) January 2004 Annual Energy Outlook 2004 With Projections to 2025 January 2004 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) was prepared by the Energy...

146

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review-Evaluation of Projections in  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards-or of sections of legislation that have been enacted but that require implementing regulations or appropriation of funds that are not provided or specified in the legislation itself-are not reflected in the projections. The AEO is based on only then current Federal and State laws and regulations. Thus, the AEO provides a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. The analyses in the AEO primarily focuses on a reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and lower and higher energy price cases. However, more than 30 alternative cases are generally included in the AEO. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases, which address many of the uncertainties inherent in long-term projections.

147

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review-Evaluation of Projections in  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9) 9) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies. The Reference case projection assumes trends that are consistent with historical and current market behavior, technological and demographic changes, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards-or of sections of legislation that have been enacted but that require implementing regulations or appropriation of funds that are not provided or specified in the legislation itself-are not reflected in the projections. Thus, the AEO Reference case provides an impartial baseline that can be used to analyze potential new policies or legislative initiatives. The analysis in the AEO primarily focuses on a Reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and lower and higher oil price cases. However, approximately 30 alternative cases are generally included in the AEO. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases, which address many of the uncertainties inherent in long-term projections.

148

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Tennessee Business and economic ouTlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Business and Economic Outlook -- 1 The U.S. Forecast introduction Economic conditions continue to deteriorate, raising concerns about a potentially deeper and more prolonged downturn. Throughout 2007 as oil business cycle. Even seemingly positive news loses its luster when one probes beneath the surface. Export

Tennessee, University of

150

Canadian gas exports in the U. S. market: 1995 evaluation and outlook  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The report summarizes data and information relating to the North American natural gas industry including supply (US, Canada, regional), demand (focusing on US sectoral demand), prices, and transportation capacities. Section 1 presents a review of industry events in 1995 and section 2 contains forecasts to the year 2000. Section 3 reviews regulatory developments which affect current and future exports of Canadian natural gas, including rolled-in versus incremental tolling, unbundling of local distribution companies, policies on market-based rates, and incentive regulation. The appendix summarizes the current electric industry restructuring process in the United States.

Not Available

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Annual Energy Outlook 2000  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Homepage Homepage Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO2000 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses current energy issues—appliance standards, gasoline and diesel fuel standards, natural gas industry expansion, competitive electricity pricing, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends.

152

International Energy Outlook 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4) 4) I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 4 April 2004 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222),

153

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6) 6) I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 6 June 2006 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Ener- gy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov,

154

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2003 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to nearly double between 2001 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the developing nations. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing component of world primary energy consumption in the International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) reference case. Consumption of natural gas worldwide is projected to increase by an average of 2.8 percent annually from 2001 to 2025, compared with projected annual growth rates of 1.8 percent for oil consumption and 1.5 percent for coal. Natural gas consumption in 2025, at 176 trillion cubic feet, is projected to be nearly double the 2001 total of 90 trillion cubic feet (Figure 40). The natural gas share of total energy consumption is projected to increase from 23 percent in 2001 to 28 percent in 2025.

155

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John Conti, Director, International, Economic and Greenhouse Gases Division (202/586-4430). Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041 or linda.doman@eia.doe.gov) or the following analysts: Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1294) World Oil Markets G. Daniel Butler (george.butler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9503) Natural Gas Phyllis Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9592) Justine Bardin (justine.baren@eia.doe.gov 202/586-3508) Coal Michael Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.doe.gov,

156

International Energy Outlook 1998  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, or Arthur T. Andersen (202/586-1441), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division. Specific questions about the report should be referred toLinda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy Consumption Arthur Andersen (art.andersen@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1441) Linda E. Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1041) World Oil Markets G. Daniel Butler (george.butler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9503) Perry Lindstrom (perry.lindstrom@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-0934) Reformulated Gasoline

157

International Energy Outlook 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3) 3) I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 3 May 2003 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director,

158

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights International Energy Outlook 2004 Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 54 percent from 2001 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO2004 reference case forecast. Figure 2. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 (Quadrillion Btu). Having Problems, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8600. Figure Data Figure 3. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (Quadrillion Btu). Having problems, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8600. Figure Data Figure 4. Comparison of 2003 and 2004 World Oil Price Projections, 1970-2025 (2002 Dollars per Barrel). Figure Data Figure 5. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Energy Source, 1970-2025 (Quadrilliion Btu). Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-596-8600.

159

International Energy Outlook 2008  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 8 September 2008 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Ener- gy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti, Director, Office

160

International Energy Outlook 2007  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7) 7) I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 7 May 2007 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Ener- gy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti, Director, Office of

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

International Energy Outlook 1999  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

contacts.gif (2957 bytes) contacts.gif (2957 bytes) The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, or Arthur T. Andersen, Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: Report Contact World Energy Consumption Linda E. Doman - 202/586-1041 linda.doman@eia.doe.gov World Oil Markets G. Daniel Butler - 202/586-9503 gbutler@eia.doe.gov Stacy MacIntyre - 202/586-9795- (Consumption) stacy.macintyre@eia.doe.gov Natural Gas Linda E. Doman - 202/586-1041

162

Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook For NASEO Winter Fuels Outlook Conference November 1, 2013| Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator EIA works closely...

163

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part III: Forecasting with Secondary-Applications Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Commands Four-Dimensional Weather Systems mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ...

Robert D. Sharman; Yubao Liu; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Thomas T. Warner; Daran L. Rife; James F. Bowers; Charles A. Clough; Edward E. Ellison

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Outlook: The Next Twenty Years  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

all this discussion, the outlook for the next twenty yearsLBNL-54470 OUTLOOK: THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS H. MURAYAMAUniversity of California. OUTLOOK: THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS H.

Murayama, Hitoshi

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Annual Energy Outlook 96 Assumptions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

for for the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 January 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Introduction This paper presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 (AEO96). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in the Appendix. 1 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview. The National Energy Modeling System The projections

166

18-Month Outlook Executive Summary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report presents an assessment of the security and adequacy of the Ontario Electricity System for the 18-month period from April 2002 through September 2003. This assessment is based on forecasts of electricity demand and available supply combined with current information on the configuration and capability of the transmission system. Outage plans of generators and transmitters are based on information available as of February 2002. During the Outlook period, the IMO forecasts show that Ontarios available generation exceeds projected demands. Over this period, approximately 3,000 MW of additional generation resources are expected to either return to service or be placed in service for the first time thereby enhancing the reliability of the Ontario electricity system. During the first half of the Outlook there are periods when Ontarios available reserves are forecast to be between 2,000 and 2,500 MW. These reserves are below the IMOs required planning reserve levels, but do not account for additional resources from outside Ontario that are expected to be available. Reserves are planning buffers identified to address circumstances that cannot be accurately predicted such as weather variations and unscheduled maintenance. The IMO anticipates that the Ontario market will be effective in attracting additional resources to provide adequate reliability. However, there

unknown authors

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Table 18. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Actual vs. Forecasts (million metric tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 AEO 1983 AEO 1984 AEO 1985 AEO 1986 AEO 1987 AEO 1989* AEO 1990 AEO 1991 AEO 1992 AEO 1993 5009 5053 5130 5207 5269 5335 5401 5449 5504 5562 5621 5672 5724 5771 AEO 1994 5060 5130 5185 5240 5287 5335 5379 5438 5482 5529 5599 5658 5694 AEO 1995 5137 5174 5188 5262 5309 5361 5394 5441 5489 5551 5621 5680 AEO 1996 5182 5224 5295 5355 5417 5464 5525 5589 5660 5735 5812 AEO 1997 5295 5381 5491 5586 5658 5715 5781 5863 5934 6009 AEO 1998 5474 5621 5711 5784 5893 5957 6026 6098 6192 AEO 1999 5522 5689 5810 5913 5976 6036 6084 6152 AEO 2000 5573 5692 5777 5865 5971 6078 6172 AEO 2001 5630 5781 5909 6023 6114 6197 AEO 2002 5723 5808 5981 6095 6210 AEO 2003 5633 5749 5856 5954 AEO 2004 5743 5826

168

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Table 13. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts (million short tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 805 825 843 868 896 936 AEO 1983 807 831 848 870 899 928 1061 AEO 1984 843 848 866 889 919 958 1110 AEO 1985 818 833 842 853 867 891 918 943 970 989 1008 AEO 1986 813 831 860 870 888 919 945 972 995 1021 1038 1051 1069 1083 1105 AEO 1987 837 837 854 879 896 912 932 954 975 1059 AEO 1989* 872 882 894 903 927 947 965 987 990 1006 1026 1045 1062 AEO 1990 884 893 984 1049 1207 AEO 1991 893 902 918 932 943 948 962 973 984 991 1003 1003 1011 1030 1056 1078 AEO 1992 905 934 919 925 934 944 953 961 971 993 1003 1011 1020 1037 1055 AEO 1993 929 931 940 947 958 965 970 972 987 997 1004 1010 1018 1032 AEO 1994 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 AEO 1995 935 940 941 947 948 951 954 958 963 971 984 992 AEO 1996 937 942 954 962 983

169

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Table 16. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts (billion kilowatt-hours) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 2364 2454 2534 2626 2708 2811 AEO 1983 2318 2395 2476 2565 2650 2739 3153 AEO 1984 2321 2376 2461 2551 2637 2738 3182 AEO 1985 2317 2360 2427 2491 2570 2651 2730 2808 2879 2949 3026 AEO 1986 2363 2416 2479 2533 2608 2706 2798 2883 2966 3048 3116 3185 3255 3324 3397 AEO 1987 2460 2494 2555 2622 2683 2748 2823 2902 2977 3363 AEO 1989* 2556 2619 2689 2760 2835 2917 2994 3072 3156 3236 3313 3394 3473 AEO 1990 2612 2689 3083 3488 3870 AEO 1991 2700 2762 2806 2855 2904 2959 3022 3088 3151 3214 3282 3355 3427 3496 3563 3632 AEO 1992 2746 2845 2858 2913 2975 3030 3087 3146 3209 3276 3345 3415 3483 3552 3625 AEO 1993 2803 2840 2893 2946 2998 3052 3104 3157 3214 3271 3327 3383 3438 3491 AEO 1994 2843 2891 2928

170

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Table 14. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts (million short tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 914 939 963 995 1031 1080 AEO 1983 900 926 947 974 1010 1045 1191 AEO 1984 899 921 948 974 1010 1057 1221 AEO 1985 886 909 930 940 958 985 1015 1041 1072 1094 1116 AEO 1986 890 920 954 962 983 1017 1044 1073 1097 1126 1142 1156 1176 1191 1217 AEO 1987 917 914 932 962 978 996 1020 1043 1068 1149 AEO 1989* 941 946 977 990 1018 1039 1058 1082 1084 1107 1130 1152 1171 AEO 1990 973 987 1085 1178 1379 AEO 1991 1035 1002 1016 1031 1043 1054 1065 1079 1096 1111 1133 1142 1160 1193 1234 1272 AEO 1992 1004 1040 1019 1034 1052 1064 1074 1087 1102 1133 1144 1156 1173 1201 1229 AEO 1993 1039 1043 1054 1065 1076 1086 1094 1102 1125 1136 1148 1161 1178 1204 AEO 1994 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 AEO 1995

171

Evaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience ...

David A. Olson; Norman W. Junker; Brian Korty

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ...

Huiling Yuan; Chungu Lu; John A. McGinley; Paul J. Schultz; Brian D. Jamison; Linda Wharton; Christopher J. Anderson

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills 1

174

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Table 3. Gross Domestic Product, Actual vs. Forecasts (Nominal $Billions) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO82 3,939 4,306 4,733 5,201 5,712 6,288 AEO83 3,919 4,264 4,650 5,086 5,549 6,053 9,362 AEO84 3,910 4,191 4,589 5,031 5,490 5,979 9,098 AEO85 3,882 4,103 4,436 4,793 5,207 5,658 6,158 6,702 7,252 7,836 8,486 AEO86 4,203 4,434 4,741 5,015 5,371 5,795 6,244 6,726 7,270 7,875 8,524 9,226 9,973 10,764 11,600 AEO87 4,483 4,701 5,035 5,389 5,773 6,190 6,666 7,175 7,716 11,223 AEO89* 4,857 5,182 5,575 6,013 6,483 6,987 7,525 8,106 8,756 9,400 10,103 10,863 11,632 AEO90 5,236 5,550 7,882 11,329 16,111 AEO91 5,457 5,695 6,078 6,399 6,738 7,145 7,607 8,099

175

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Table 5. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts (million barrels per day) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 18.00 17.89 17.55 17.24 16.98 16.99 AEO 1983 15.82 16.13 16.37 16.50 16.56 16.63 17.37 AEO 1984 15.77 15.76 16.01 16.27 16.48 16.74 18.00 AEO 1985 15.72 15.74 15.97 16.01 16.06 16.08 16.18 16.23 16.32 16.36 16.53 AEO 1986 16.07 16.29 16.05 16.07 16.15 16.31 16.37 16.42 16.44 16.46 16.50 16.64 16.80 17.21 17.38 AEO 1987 16.52 16.66 16.96 17.06 17.29 17.56 17.73 17.76 17.72 18.30 AEO 1989* 17.01 17.20 17.44 17.57 17.72 17.76 17.78 17.82 18.05 18.12 18.19 18.40 18.61 AEO 1990

176

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Issues in Focus  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Issues in Focus Issues in Focus Macroeconomic Forecasting with the Revised National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Phasing Out MTBE in Gasoline World Oil Demand and Prices Distributed Electricity Generation Resources Natural Gas Supply Availability Restructuring of State Retail Markets for Electricity Carbon Dioxide Emissions in AEO2001 Macroeconomic Forecasting with the Revised National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) The NIPA Comprehensive Revision Economic activity is a key determinant of growth in U.S. energy supply and demand. The derivation of the forecast of economic activity is therefore a critical step in developing the energy forecast presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001). In turn, the forecast of economic activity is rooted fundamentally in the historical data series maintained by a

177

One: The California Economic Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Christopher Thornberg,signs of having peaked. The outlook for 2006 is dominated by

Thornberg, Christopher

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts (current dollars per thousand cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 4.32 5.47 6.67 7.51 8.04 8.57 AEO 1983 2.93 3.11 3.46 3.93 4.56 5.26 12.74 AEO 1984 2.77 2.90 3.21 3.63 4.13 4.79 9.33 AEO 1985 2.60 2.61 2.66 2.71 2.94 3.35 3.85 4.46 5.10 5.83 6.67 AEO 1986 1.73 1.96 2.29 2.54 2.81 3.15 3.73 4.34 5.06 5.90 6.79 7.70 8.62 9.68 10.80 AEO 1987 1.83 1.95 2.11 2.28 2.49 2.72 3.08 3.51 4.07 7.54 AEO 1989* 1.62 1.70 1.91 2.13 2.58 3.04 3.48 3.93 4.76 5.23 5.80 6.43 6.98 AEO 1990 1.78 1.88 2.93 5.36 9.15 AEO 1991 1.77 1.90 2.11 2.30 2.42 2.51 2.60 2.74 2.91 3.29 3.75 4.31 5.07 5.77 6.45 7.29 AEO 1992 1.69 1.85 2.03 2.15 2.35 2.51 2.74 3.01 3.40 3.81 4.24 4.74 5.25 5.78 6.37 AEO 1993 1.85 1.94 2.09 2.30 2.44 2.60 2.85 3.12 3.47 3.84 4.31 4.81 5.28 5.68

179

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Table 11. Natural Gas Net Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts (trillion cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 AEO 1983 1.08 1.16 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 AEO 1984 0.99 1.05 1.16 1.27 1.43 1.57 2.11 AEO 1985 0.94 1.00 1.19 1.45 1.58 1.86 1.94 2.06 2.17 2.32 2.44 AEO 1986 0.74 0.88 0.62 1.03 1.05 1.27 1.39 1.47 1.66 1.79 1.96 2.17 2.38 2.42 2.43 AEO 1987 0.84 0.89 1.07 1.16 1.26 1.36 1.46 1.65 1.75 2.50 AEO 1989* 1.15 1.32 1.44 1.52 1.61 1.70 1.79 1.87 1.98 2.06 2.15 2.23 2.31 AEO 1990 1.26 1.43 2.07 2.68 2.95 AEO 1991 1.36 1.53 1.70 1.82 2.11 2.30 2.33 2.36 2.42 2.49 2.56 2.70 2.75 2.83 2.90 2.95 AEO 1992 1.48 1.62 1.88 2.08 2.25 2.41 2.56 2.68 2.70 2.72 2.76 2.84 2.92 3.05 3.10 AEO 1993 1.79 2.08 2.35 2.49 2.61 2.74 2.89 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.17 3.29 3.42 AEO 1994 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74

180

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts (trillion cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 15.93 15.72 15.72 16.08 16.59 17.08 AEO 1983 17.75 17.63 17.57 17.75 17.76 17.77 16.95 AEO 1984 18.22 18.07 18.33 18.61 18.73 18.76 18.75 AEO 1985 17.79 17.80 17.89 18.30 18.58 18.71 18.79 18.88 18.82 18.82 18.81 AEO 1986 16.52 16.83 17.35 17.27 17.50 17.77 17.77 17.90 18.01 18.04 18.03 18.26 18.34 18.04 17.92 AEO 1987 16.85 16.93 17.24 17.27 17.34 17.43 17.66 18.02 18.31 19.65 AEO 1989* 17.75 17.95 17.94 18.08 18.10 18.34 18.68 18.94 19.17 19.55 19.86 19.98 20.29 AEO 1990 18.34 18.66 20.69 22.88 22.72 AEO 1991 18.53 19.21 19.34 19.56 19.76 20.01 20.21 20.66 20.93 21.23 21.64 22.03 22.33 22.35 22.32 22.27 AEO 1992 18.79 19.36 19.84 20.08 20.53 20.68 21.12 21.42 21.66 21.89 22.23

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 19. Energy Intensity, Actual vs. Forecasts (quadrillion Btu / $Billion Nominal GDP) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 20.1 18.5 16.9 15.5 14.4 13.2 AEO 1983 19.9 18.6 17.4 16.2 15.1 14.0 9.6 AEO 1984 20.1 18.9 17.7 16.5 15.5 14.5 10.3 AEO 1985 20.0 19.1 18.0 16.9 15.9 14.7 13.7 12.7 11.8 11.1 10.3 AEO 1986 18.3 17.8 16.8 16.1 15.2 14.3 13.5 12.6 11.8 11.0 10.3 9.6 8.8 8.2 7.7 AEO 1987 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.4 14.5 13.8 13.0 12.2 11.5 8.2 AEO 1989* 16.9 16.2 15.2 14.2 13.3 12.5 11.7 11.0 10.4 9.7 9.0 8.4 8.0 AEO 1990 16.1 15.4 11.7 8.6 6.4 AEO 1991 15.5 14.9 14.2 13.6 13.0 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.3 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.9 7.4 AEO 1992 15.0 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.7 AEO 1993 14.7 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.8 AEO 1994 14.1 13.5 13.1 12.6 12.1 11.6 11.1 10.6

182

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Table 15. Average Electricity Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts (nominal cents per kilowatt-hour) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 6.38 6.96 7.63 8.23 8.83 9.49 AEO 1983 6.85 7.28 7.74 8.22 8.68 9.18 13.12 AEO 1984 6.67 7.05 7.48 7.89 8.25 8.65 11.53 AEO 1985 6.62 6.94 7.32 7.63 7.89 8.15 8.46 8.85 9.20 9.61 10.04 AEO 1986 6.67 6.88 7.05 7.18 7.35 7.52 7.65 7.87 8.31 8.83 9.41 10.01 10.61 11.33 12.02 AEO 1987 6.63 6.65 6.92 7.12 7.38 7.62 7.94 8.36 8.86 11.99 AEO 1989* 6.50 6.75 7.14 7.48 7.82 8.11 8.50 8.91 9.39 9.91 10.49 11.05 11.61 AEO 1990 6.49 6.72 8.40 10.99 14.47 AEO 1991 6.94 7.31 7.59 7.82 8.18 8.38 8.54 8.73 8.99 9.38 9.83 10.29 10.83 11.36 11.94 12.58 AEO 1992 6.97 7.16 7.32 7.56 7.78 8.04 8.29 8.57 8.93 9.38 9.82 10.26 10.73 11.25 11.83 AEO 1993 7.18 7.36 7.54 7.77 7.99 8.27 8.54 8.89 9.33 9.72 10.14

183

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Table 10. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts (trillion cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 14.74 14.26 14.33 14.89 15.39 15.88 AEO 1983 16.48 16.27 16.20 16.31 16.27 16.29 14.89 AEO 1984 17.48 17.10 17.44 17.58 17.52 17.32 16.39 AEO 1985 16.95 17.08 17.11 17.29 17.40 17.33 17.32 17.27 17.05 16.80 16.50 AEO 1986 16.30 16.27 17.15 16.68 16.90 16.97 16.87 16.93 16.86 16.62 16.40 16.33 16.57 16.23 16.12 AEO 1987 16.21 16.09 16.38 16.32 16.30 16.30 16.44 16.62 16.81 17.39 AEO 1989* 16.71 16.71 16.94 17.01 16.83 17.09 17.35 17.54 17.67 17.98 18.20 18.25 18.49 AEO 1990 16.91 17.25 18.84 20.58 20.24 AEO 1991 17.40 17.48 18.11 18.22 18.15 18.22 18.39 18.82 19.03 19.28 19.62 19.89 20.13 20.07 19.95 19.82 AEO 1992 17.43 17.69 17.95 18.00 18.29 18.27 18.51 18.75 18.97 19.19 19.48 19.78

184

Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook 2003 Annual Energy Outlook 2003 Assumptions to the AEO2003 Nattional Energy Modeling System/Annual Energy Outlook 2003 Conference E-Mail Subscription Lists Forecasts Home Page Supplement Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 AEO Supplement Reference Case Forecast (2000-2025) - (HTML) Table 1. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (New England) Table 2. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (Middle Atlantic) Table 3. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (East North Central) Table 4. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (West North Central) Table 5. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (South Atlantic) Table 6. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (East South Central) Table 7. Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (West South Central)

185

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Contact  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

contact.gif (4492 bytes) contact.gif (4492 bytes) The Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222). General questions may be addressed to Arthur T. Andersen (aanderse@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1441), Director of the International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gas Division; Susan H. Holte (sholte@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4838), Director of the Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (jkendell@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9646), Director of the Oil and Gas Division; Scott Sitzer (ssitzer@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308), Director of the Coal and Electric Power Division; or Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Modeling Analyst. Detailed questions about the forecasts and related model components may be addressed to the following analysts:

187

Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Contact  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Homepage Homepage For Further Information... The Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Susan H. Holte (sholte@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4838), Director of the Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (jkendell@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9646), Director of the Oil and Gas Division; Scott Sitzer (ssitzer@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308), Director of the Coal and Electric Power Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Modeling Analyst. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows:

188

International Energy Outlook 2001 - World Energy Consumption  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Energy Consumption World Energy Consumption picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and issues related to electricity, transportation, and the environment. The International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001) presents the Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlook for world energy markets to 2020. Current trends in world energy markets are discussed in this chapter, followed by a presentation of the IEO2001 projections for energy consumption by primary energy source and for carbon emissions by fossil fuel. Uncertainty in the forecast is highlighted by an examination of alternative assumptions about economic growth and their impacts on the

189

PPMCSA Presentation on Winter Distillate Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

PPMCSA Presentation on Winter Distillate Outlook PPMCSA Presentation on Winter Distillate Outlook 09/15/2000 Click here to start Table of Contents Winter Distillate Outlook Distillate Prices Increasing With Crude Oil Factors Driving Prices & Forecast First Factor Impacting Distillate Prices: Crude Oil Prices High Crude Prices Go With Low Inventories Second Price Component: Spread Impacted by Distillate Supply/Demand Balance Distillate Stocks are Low – Especially on the East Coast Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Winter Demand Impacted by Weather Warm Winters Held Heating Oil Demand Down While Diesel Grew Distillate Demand Strong in December 1999 Dec 1999 & Jan 2000 Production Fell, But Rebounded with Price Higher Yields Can Be Achieved Unusual Net Imports May Only Be Available at a High Price

190

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook - Regional Enhancements Starting with this edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA is introducing regional projections (the scope of which will vary by fuel) of energy prices, consumption, and production. The addition of regional data and forecasts will allow us to examine regional fuel demands and prices, regional fuel inventory trends, the interaction between regional electricity demand shifts, and regional electric generating capacity. This edition of STEO includes regional projections for heating oil, propane, and gasoline prices and natural gas and electricity demand and prices. Over the next 2 months, we will include additional regional

191

International Energy Outlook - Special Topics  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

A A Energy Information Administration Forecast Channel. If having trouble viewing this page, contact the National Energy Informaiton Center at (202) 586-8800. Return to Energy Information Administration Home Page Home > Environment> International Energy Outlook> Special Topics International Energy Outlook 2004 Converting Gross Domestic Product for Different Countries to U.S. Dollars: Market Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity Rates The world energy forecasts in IEO2004 are based primarily on projections of GDP for different countries and regions, which for purposes of comparison are expressed in 1997 U.S. dollars. First, GDP projections are prepared for the individual countries in terms of their own national currencies and 1997 prices of goods and services. Then, the projections are converted to 1997 U.S. dollars by applying average 1997 foreign exchange rates between the various national currencies and the dollar. The resulting projections of real GDP are thus based on national 1997 prices in each country and the 1997 market exchange rate (MER) for each currency against the U.S. dollar.

192

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections. Second quarter 1995  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the first quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

NONE

1995-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

193

August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

August 2012 1 August 2012 1 August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights  EIA projects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month's Outlook. The forecast Brent crude oil spot price falls to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in the third quarter of 2012 to $9 by late 2013. These price forecasts assume that world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product (GDP), which increased by 3.0 percent in 2011, grows by 2.8 percent in 2012 and 2.9

194

International Energy Outlook 1999 - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

natgas.jpg (4355 bytes) natgas.jpg (4355 bytes) Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO99 forecast. Because it is a cleaner fuel than oil or coal and not as controversial as nuclear power, gas is expected to be the fuel of choice for many countries in the future. Prospects for natural gas demand worldwide remain bright, despite the impact of the Asian economic recession on near-term development. Natural gas consumption in the International Energy Outlook 1999 (IEO99) is somewhat increased from last year’s outlook, and the fuel remains the fastest growing primary energy source in the forecast period. Worldwide gas use more than doubles in the reference case projection, reaching 174 trillion cubic feet in 2020 from 82 trillion cubic feet in 1996 (Figure

195

Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 is a companion document to the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO). Supplement tables provide the regional projections underlying the national data and projections in the AEO. The domestic coal, electric power, commercial nuclear power, end-use consumption, and end-use price tables present AEO forecasts at the 10 Federal Region level. World coal tables provide data and projections on international flows of steam coal and metallurgical coal, and the oil and gas tables provide the AEO oil and gas supply forecasts by Oil and Gas Supply Regions and by source of supply. All tables refer to cases presented in the AEO, which provides a range of projections for energy markets through 2010.

Not Available

1993-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

196

Short-term energy outlook, January 1999  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

Tancred Lidderdale

2011-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

198

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Information Center

2009-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

199

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Information Center

2009-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

200

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a ...

Steven M. Lazarus; Samuel T. Wilson; Michael E. Splitt; Gary A. Zarillo

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper addresses the question of whether it is better to include lower-resolution members of a nested suite of numerical precipitation forecasts to increase ensemble size, or to utilize high-resolution members only to maximize forecast ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

A Systematic Economic Approach to Evaluating Public Investment in Observations for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Observations of the current state of the atmosphere are a major input to production of modern weather forecasts. As a result, investments in observations are a major component of public expenditures related to weather forecasting. Consequently, ...

Rebecca E. Morss; Kathleen A. Miller; Maxine S. Vasil

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Evaluating Forecasters' Rules of Thumb: A Study of d(prog)/dt  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasters often develop rules of thumb for adjusting model guidance. Ideally, before use, these rules of thumb should be validated through a careful comparison of model forecasts and observations over a large sample. Practically, such ...

Thomas M. Hamill

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While some research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models forecast ...

Daniel J. Halperin; Henry E. Fuelberg; Robert E. Hart; Joshua H. Cossuth; Philip Sura; Richard J. Pasch

205

An evaluation of market penetration forecasting methodologies for new residential and commercial energy technologies  

SciTech Connect

Forecasting market penetration is an essential step in the development and assessment of new technologies. This report reviews several methodologies that are available for market penetration forecasting. The primary objective of this report is to help entrepreneurs understand these methodologies and aid in the selection of one or more of them for application to a particular new technology. This report also illustrates the application of these methodologies, using examples of new technologies, such as the heat pump, drawn from the residential and commercial sector. The report concludes with a brief discussion of some considerations in selecting a forecasting methodology for a particular situation. It must be emphasized that the objective of this report is not to construct a specific market penetration model for new technologies but only to provide a comparative evaluation of methodologies that would be useful to an entrepreneur who is unfamiliar with the range of techniques available. The specific methodologies considered in this report are as follows: subjective estimation methods, market surveys, historical analogy models, time series models, econometric models, diffusion models, economic cost models, and discrete choice models. In addition to these individual methodologies, which range from the very simple to the very complex, two combination approaches are also briefly discussed: (1) the economic cost model combined with the diffusion model and (2) the discrete choice model combined with the diffusion model. This discussion of combination methodologies is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, it is intended merely to show that many methodologies often can complement each other. A combination of two or more different approaches may be better than a single methodology alone.

Raju, P.S.; Teotia, A.P.S.

1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections  

SciTech Connect

Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in February, May, August, and November for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, quarterly projections. Methodology volumes, which are published with the May and November issues, contain descriptions of the forecasting system and detailed analyses of the current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts. The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). Two principal driving variables are used in the STIFS model: the macroeconomic forecast and the world oil price assumptions. The macroeconomic forecasts, which are produced by Data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA in cases where EIA projections of the world price of crude oil differ from DRI estimates. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project the world oil prices. The three projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, medium, and high economic growth scenarios which incorporate high, medium, and low crude oil price trajectories. In general, the following discussion of the forecast refers to the medium, or base case, scenario. Total petroleum consumption sensitivities, using varying assumptions about the level of price, weather, and economic activity are tabulated.

1983-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

ShortShort--Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis ShortShort--Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook Chart Gallery for Chart Gallery for ...

208

Short-term energy outlook, Quarterly projections. Third quarter 1993  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

NONE

1993-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

209

2011 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Key factors driving the short-term outlook. 2011 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook. 2 Disruption of crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply from

210

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Short Short- -Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook Chart Gallery for Chart Gallery for November...

211

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Evaluation of MM5 High-Resolution Real-Time Forecasts over the Urban Area of Athens, Greece  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State UniversityNational Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) forecast skill over an area of complex terrain is evaluated. Namely, the model is verified over a period of 1 yr (2002)...

V. Kotroni; K. Lagouvardos

2004-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A4. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in market exchange rates, Reference case, 2009-2040...

214

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Table G1. Heat rates Fuel Units Approximate heat content Coal 1 Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million Btu per short ton...

215

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

36 Reference case Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2012 6 Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source (2010 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise...

216

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012 234 Regional maps Figure F3. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts 216 U.S. Energy Information...

217

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Non-OECD Statistics" (2012), www.iea.org (subscription site). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOEEIA-0383(2013) (Washington, DC: April 2013); AEO2013 National...

218

Natural Gas Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Natural Gas Outlook National Association of State Energy Officials State Heating Oil and Propane Conference August 30, 2004 William Trapmann Energy Information ...

219

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2 Reference case Table A10. Electricity trade (billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted) Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2012 22 Table A10....

220

Baryons 2002: Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Summary and outlook presented at the 9th International Conference on the Structure of Baryons (BARYONS 2002), Jefferson Lab, March 3-8, 2002

Wolfram Weise

2002-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F17. Delivered energy...

222

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Projections: EIA, AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System run REF2012.D020112C. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012 160 Reference case Table...

223

Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 October 7, 2013 - 9:50am Addthis DOE's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Energy Information Administration, and the National Association of State Energy Officials will host the 2013 - 2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on November 1 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. Originally scheduled for October 8, the conference has been rescheduled due to the shutdown of the Federal government. This supply and demand forecast event will address the effects of projected weather and market factors that may affect the supply, distribution and prices of petroleum, natural gas and electricity this winter. For more information and to register for the

224

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part II: Economic Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two economic models are employed to perform a value assessment of short-range ensemble forecasts of 24-h precipitation probabilities for hydroelectric reservoir operation.

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MOS),NumericalWeatherPrediction(NWP),SolarForecastingofnumericalweatherpredictionforintra?daysolarsolarenergyapplicationsbasedonaerosolchemicaltransportand numericalweather

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Outlook for US lube oil supply and demand  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the domestic demand for automotive and industrial lubricants to the year 2000 and evaluates the ability of U.S. refiners to meet the associated demand for base stocks. Changes in the supply/demand picture over the past several years are also reviewed. In the late 1970's, lube base stocks had been in short supply as healthy increases in demand pushed U.S. refiners to near maximum operating levels. Imports were increased to what were then record high levels and exports were reduced. This situation began to reverse itself in mid-1980 as marketers began to feel the impact of recession here and abroad. U.S. base stock consumption has since declined dramatically, to a level in 1982 estimated to be 17.5% below that of 1979's peak. In the meantime, refiners had added another 7.0 MB/CD to manufacturing capacity. 1982 lube plant operations are estimated to have dropped as low as 62% of nameplate capacity. The outlook for recovery is conservative. Due to continued depressed demand in certain market segments, 1983's increase in base oil demand is projected to be held to only 2%. Gains in 1984 and 1985 will be more robust, in the area of 6% per year. Thereafter, the overall rate of growth will drop to under 1% per year. The outlooks for automotive and industrial lubricants demand are summarized. Due to a forecast of greater relative growth in synthetic and water-based lubricants, base stock consumption is forecast to increase at a slower pace than that of the total finished lubricants volume.

Brecht, F.

1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: 2013 Hurricane Outlook i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: 2013 Hurricane Outlook 1

229

International Energy Outlook 2000 - Contacts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: Report Contact World Energy Consumption Linda E. Doman - 202/586-1041 linda.doman@eia.doe.gov World Oil Markets G. Daniel Butler - 202/586-9503 gbutler@eia.doe.gov Bruce Bawks - 202/586-6579 bruce.bawks@eia.doe.gov Natural Gas Phyllis Martin - 202/586-9592 phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov Gas-to-Liquids Technology William Trapmann - 202/586-6408 william.trapmann@eia.doe.gov Coal Michael Mellish - 202/586-2136

230

International Energy Outlook 2001 - Contact  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts Printer Friendly Version (PDF) The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy Consumption Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1041) World Oil Markets G. Daniel Butler (george.butler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9503) Bruce Bawks (bruce.bawks@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-6579) Natural Gas Sara Banaszak Phyllis Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9592) Coal Sara Banaszak

231

International Energy Outlook 2002 - Contacts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy Consumption Linda Doman linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1041 World Oil Markets G. Daniel Butler Aloulou Fawzi george.butler@eia.doe.gov aloulou.fawzi@eia.doe.gov 202/586-9503 202/586-7818 Natural Gas Phyllis Martin Bruce Bawks phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov bruce.bawks@eia.doe.gov 202/586-9592 202/586-6579 China’s West-to-East Pipeline Aloulou Fawzi aloulou.fawzi@eia.doe.gov 202/586-7818

232

Forecasting exurban development to evaluate the influence of land-use policies on wildland and farmland conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Planning Vol 1 (2005) 4057 Forecasting exurban developmentof general plans for forecasting future development can be

Merenlender, Adina M.; Brooks, Colin; Shabazian, David; Gao, Shengyi; Johnston, Robert A.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

International Energy Outlook 2000 - Notes & Sources  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

To International Forecasting Home Page To International Forecasting Home Page To Annual Energy Outlook 2000 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage [1] Turkey and Belarus are Annex I nations that have not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. [2] The Annex I countries under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Turkey and Belarus are also considered Annex I countries, but neither has agreed to any limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

234

World coal outlook to the year 2000  

SciTech Connect

The 1983 edition of the World Coal Outlook to the Year 2000 examines the worldwide impact of lower oil prices and lower economic activity on the demand, production, and international trade in coal. The report includes detailed regional forecasts of coal demand by end-use application. Regions include the US, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Other Asia, Latin America, Africa, Australia/New Zealand, Communist Europe, and Communist Asia. In addition, regional coal production forecasts are provided with a detailed analysis of regional coal trade patterns. In all instances, the changes relative to Chase's previous forecasts are shown. Because of the current situation in the oil market, the report includes an analysis of the competitive position of coal relative to oil in the generation of electricity, and in industrial steam applications. The report concludes with an examination of the impact of an oil price collapse on the international markets for coal.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1994  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report is a companion document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94), (DOE/EIA-0383(94)), released in Jan. 1994. Part I of the Supplement presents the key quantitative assumptions underlying the AEO94 projections, responding to requests by energy analysts for additional information on the forecasts. In Part II, the Supplement provides regional projections and other underlying details of the reference case projections in the AEO94. The AEO94 presents national forecasts of energy production, demand and prices through 2010 for five scenarios, including a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. These forecasts are used by Federal, State, and local governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors.

NONE

1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Short-term energy outlook, April 1999  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Short-term energy outlook, July 1998  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled oceanatmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Object-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convection-Allowing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts generated by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms with 1- and 4-km grid spacing using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF; ARW1 and ARW4, respectively) for the 200911 NOAA Hazardous Weather ...

Aaron Johnson; Xuguang Wang; Fanyou Kong; Ming Xue

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Evaluation of a Simple Numerical Model as a Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Tool  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the America's Cup race series of 19861987, a numerical sea breeze model was used to assist offshore forecasts. The exercise has provided a detailed insight into the extent to which such a model may assist the forecasting process the ...

P. J. Rye

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

243

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Summer 2003 Motor Gasoline Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Summer 2003 Motor Gasoline Outlook ... State gasoline taxes ... that occurred between spring 1999 and fall 2001, ...

245

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2008  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

AEO 2008 AEO 2008 Annual Energy Outlook 2008 The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008) presents projections and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. The AEO2008 includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation. Analytical Overview: Energy Trends to 2030 In preparing projections for AEO2008, we evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets between today and 2030. The overview focuses on one case, the reference case. ...see full Overview Section You are encouraged to review the full range of alternative cases included in the analysis of other sections of AEO2008 -

247

The California Economy: The Long Term Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1996. First, we cover the outlook for the main macroeconomicin the two economies. The outlook calls for moderate growthunderlies the macroeconomic outlook. Good jobs offer high

Kimbell, Larry J

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Contacts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Director, Demand and Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; A. Michael Schaal (michael.schaal@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-5590), Director, Oil and Gas Division; Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Technical Advisor.

249

Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1995  

SciTech Connect

This section of the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 present the major assumptions of the modeling system used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in Appendix B. A synopsis of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented. The NEMS is developed and maintained by the office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projection of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by various government agencies and the private sector.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information. The forecasts produced by this model are accurate, and subject to accuracy, the predictive distribution is sharp, i.e., highly concentrated around its center. However, this model is split into nonunique regimes based on the wind direction at an off-site location. This work both generalizes and improves upon this model by treating wind direction as a circular variable and including it in the model. It is robust in many experiments, such as predicting at new locations. This is compared with the more common approach of modeling wind speeds and directions in the Cartesian space and use a skew-t distribution for the errors. The quality of the predictions from all of these models can be more realistically assessed with a loss measure that depends upon the power curve relating wind speed to power output. This proposed loss measure yields more insight into the true value of each model's predictions. One method of evaluating time series forecasts, such as wind speed forecasts, is to test the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing sets of forecasts. Diebold and Mariano (1995) proposed a test in this setting that has been extended and widely applied. It allows the researcher to specify a wide variety of loss functions, and the forecast errors can be non-Gaussian, nonzero mean, serially correlated, and contemporaneously correlated. In this work, a similar unconditional test of forecast accuracy for spatial data is proposed. The forecast errors are no longer potentially serially correlated but spatially correlated. Simulations will illustrate the properties of this test, and an example with daily average wind speeds measured at over 100 locations in Oklahoma will demonstrate its use. This test is compared with a wavelet-based method introduced by Shen et al. (2002) in which the presence of a spatial signal at each location in the dataset is tested.

Hering, Amanda S.

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

252

Annual energy outlook 1995, with projections to 2010  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projections and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1995 and 1996 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1995). Forecast tables for the five cases examined in the AEO95 are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendix A gives historical data and forecasts for selected years from 1992 through 2010 for the reference case. Appendix B presents two additional cases, which assume higher and lower economic growth than the reference case. Appendix C presents two cases that assume higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix D presents a summary of the forecasts in units of oil equivalence. Appendix E presents a summary of household energy expenditures. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO95 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS and the major AEO95 forecast assumptions. Appendix H presents a stand-alone high electricity demand case. Appendix 1 provides a table of energy conversion factors and a table of metric conversion factors. 89 figs., 23 tabs.

NONE

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

A More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion Model Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble forecast is used as input to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to study the effect that analysis errors in the numerical weather prediction assimilation cycle have on dispersion modeling. The wind and temperature fields from a ...

Anne Grete Straume

2001-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Real-Time Forecasting of the Western Australian Summertime Trough: Evaluation of a New Regional Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The real-time prediction of the location, strength, and structure of the summertime heat trough is a major forecasting problem over Western Australia. Maximum temperatures, wind strength and direction along the west coast, low-level coastal cloud,...

Lance M. Leslie; Terry C. L. Skinner

1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models ...

Daniel J. Halperin; Henry E. Fuelberg; Robert E. Hart; Joshua H. Cossuth; Philip Sura; Richard J. Pasch

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

A Retrospective Evaluation of the Storm Surge Produced by Hurricane Gustav (2008): Forecast and Hindcast Results  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The evolution and convergence of modeled storm surge were examined using a high-resolution implementation of the Advanced Circulation Coastal Ocean and Storm Surge (ADCIRC) model for Hurricane Gustav (2008). The storm surge forecasts were forced ...

Cristina Forbes; Richard A. Luettich Jr.; Craig A. Mattocks; Joannes J. Westerink

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL, and ECMWF Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 are examined with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (...

Ccile Hannay; David L. Williamson; James J. Hack; Jeffrey T. Kiehl; Jerry G. Olson; Stephen A. Klein; Christopher S. Bretherton; Martin Khler

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of the Earths climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

260

Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

Not Available

1993-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

262

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Assumptions to the Annual Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 May 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3

263

Key Drivers Affecting the Outlook for Renewables  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release, International Energy Outlook 2011 . ... AECO Germany - BEB Hub Netherlands - TTF Belgium - Zeebrugge

264

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

An Evaluation and Intercomparison of Global Analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to help establish a global climate record data sets of global analyses from the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been comprehensively evaluated.

Kevin E. Trenberth; Jerry G. Olson

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Evaluating the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer and Cloud Microphysical Parameterization Schemes in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts using Synthetic GOES-13 Satellite Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, the ability of several cloud microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes to accurately simulate cloud characteristics within 4-km-grid-spacing ensemble forecasts over the contiguous U.S. was evaluated through ...

Rebecca Cintineo; Jason A. Otkin; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong

267

International Energy Outlook 1999  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

ieo99cvr.gif (8385 bytes) ieo99cvr.gif (8385 bytes) Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. The outlooks for major energy fuels are discussed, along with electricity, transportation, and environmental issues. The International Energy Outlook 1999 (IEO99) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. The report is an extension of EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). U.S. projections appearing in IEO99 are consistent with those published in AEO99. IEO99 is provided as a statistical service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private

268

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

235 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Regional maps Figure F4. Oil and gas supply model regions Figure F4. Oil and Gas Supply Model Regions...

269

Learning from Multiple Outlooks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We consider semi-supervised learning from multiple outlooks of the same learning task, that is, learning from different representations of the same type of data. As opposed to learning from multiple views where it is assumed that the exact same instances have multiple representations, we only assume the availability of samples of the same learning task in different domains. We develop an algorithmic framework that is based on mapping the (unlabeled) data followed by adjusting the mapping using the scarcer labeled data. The mapped data from all the outlooks can then be used for a generic classification algorithm. We further provide sample complexity results under the assumption that the different outlooks are inherently low dimension Gaussian mixtures. Experiments with real-world data indicate the performance boost from using multiple outlooks.

Gal-on, Maayan

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F11. Delivered energy consumption in Russia by end-use sector and fuel,...

271

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F7. Delivered energy consumption in Japan by end-use sector and fuel,...

272

International Energy Outlook 2011  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2013 DOE/EIA-0484(2013) Brazil July 24, ... Germany Non-OECD OECD 108.00 86.00 69.00 44.00 35.00

273

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

274

Annual energy outlook 1994: With projections to 2010  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projects and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based for the first time on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the latest in a series of computer-based energy modeling systems used over the past 2 decades by EIA and its predecessor organization, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze and forecast energy consumption and supply in the midterm period (about 20 years). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1994 and 1995 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1994). Forecast tables for 2000, 2005, and 2010 for each of the five scenarios examined in the AEO94 are provided in Appendices A through E. The five scenarios include a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO94 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly described the NEMS and the major AEO94 forecast assumptions. Appendix H summarizes the key results for the five scenarios.

Not Available

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 with Projections to 2025 4 with Projections to 2025 Report #: DOE/EIA-0383(2004) Release date: January 2004 Next release date: January 2005 Errata August 25, 2004 The Annual Energy Outlook presents a midterm forecast and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025 Table of Contents Summary Tables Adobe Acrobat Logo Yearly Tables MS Excel Viewer Regional and other detailed tables (Supplemental) MS Excel Viewer Overview Market Drivers Trends in Economic Activity Economic Growth Cases International Oil Markets Energy Demand Projections Residential Sector Commercial Sector Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Alternative Technology Cases Electricity Forecast Electricity Sales Electricity Generating Capacity Electricity Fuel Costs and Prices Electricity from Nuclear Power

276

International energy outlook 1996  

SciTech Connect

This International Energy Outlook presents historical data from 1970 to 1993 and EIA`s projections of energy consumption and carbon emissions through 2015 for 6 country groups. Prospects for individual fuels are discussed. Summary tables of the IEO96 world energy consumption, oil production, and carbon emissions projections are provided in Appendix A. The reference case projections of total foreign energy consumption and of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy were prepared using EIA`s World Energy Projection System (WEPS) model. Reference case projections of foreign oil production and consumption were prepared using the International Energy Module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Nuclear consumption projections were derived from the International Nuclear Model, PC Version (PC-INM). Alternatively, nuclear capacity projections were developed using two methods: the lower reference case projections were based on analysts` knowledge of the nuclear programs in different countries; the upper reference case was generated by the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES)--a demand-driven model. In addition, the NEMS Coal Export Submodule (CES) was used to derive flows in international coal trade. As noted above, foreign projections of electricity demand are now projected as part of the WEPS. 64 figs., 62 tabs.

NONE

1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

DOE, EIA, and NASEO Host Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 8, 2013  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

DOE, EIA, and NASEO Host Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October DOE, EIA, and NASEO Host Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 8, 2013 DOE, EIA, and NASEO Host Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 8, 2013 September 26, 2013 - 11:12am Addthis DOE's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Energy Information Administration, and the National Association of State Energy Officials will host the 2013 - 2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 8 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. This supply and demand forecast event will address the effects of projected weather and market factors that may affect the supply, distribution and prices of petroleum, natural gas and electricity this winter. For more information and to register for the event, visit the 2013 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference website.

278

Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 12, 2011 |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 12, 2011 Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 12, 2011 September 19, 2011 - 4:55pm Addthis The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the National Association of State Energy Officials invite you to participate in the 2011 - 2012 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference. This important supply and demand forecast event will be held on Wednesday, October 12, 2011, from 7:30 a.m. - 3:30 p.m. at The Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20001. Event Information Winter Fuels Conference Site Preliminary Agenda Online Registration Addthis Related Articles Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 10, 2012

279

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook for Labor Productivity Growth Outlook for Labor Productivity Growth Issues In Focus. Outlook for Labor Productivity Growth The AEO2004 reference case economic forecast is a projection of possible economic growth, from the short term to the longer term, in a consistent framework that stresses demand factors in the short term and supply factors in the long term [33]. Productivity is perhaps the most important concept for the determination of employment, inflation, and supply of output in the long term. Productivity is a measure of economic efficiency that shows how effectively economic inputs are converted into output. Advances in productivity—that is, the ability to produce more with the same or less input—are a significant source of increased potential national income. The U.S. economy has been able to produce more goods and services over time, not only by requiring a proportional increase of labor time but also by making production more efficient. To illustrate the importance of productivity improvements, on the eve of the American Revolution, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) per capita stood at approximately $765 (in 1992 dollars) [34]. Incomes rose dramatically over the next two centuries, propelled upward by the Industrial Revolution, and by 2002 GDP per capita had grown to $30,000 (1992 dollars). Productivity improvements played a major role in the increase in per capita GDP growth.

280

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook2001 Outlook2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20011 (AEO2001), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2001 were produced with the National Energy

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook Update (Figure 1) A considerable break in the expected strength of near-term crude oil prices has resulted in a lower forecast for retail gasoline prices this spring. Gasoline prices may well have seen their peak for the year, barring sharp disruptions in crude oil supply or refinery operations. Pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, still high by historical standards but well below the $2.28 anticipated last month. Our projection has been revised downward from the last Outlook as crude oil prices fell from the high $50s per barrel to the low $50s. However, oil prices remain high enough to keep expected

282

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013 1 July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights The U.S. Energy Information ...

283

Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

A presentation to the National Association of State Energy Officials 2005 Energy Outlook Conference, in Washington, DC, on February 17, 2005, giving EIA's outlook for petroleum and natural gas supply, demand, and prices.

Information Center

2005-02-18T23:59:59.000Z

284

The Effect of Spatial Aggregation on the Skill of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skillful forecasts of 3-month total precipitation would be useful for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, public health, and other sectors of society. However, with some exceptions, the skill of seasonal precipitation outlooks is modest, ...

Xiaofeng Gong; Anthony G. Barnston; M. Neil Ward

2003-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Japan's Residential Energy Demand Outlook to 2030  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation section in the U.S. Department section in the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. #12;ppaappeerr ttoo bbeeLBNL-292E Japan's Residential Energy Demand Outlook to 2030 Considering Energy Efficiency Standards

286

Winter Distillate .and Propane Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Winter Distillate .and Propane Outlook. Joanne Shore Energy Information Administration State Heating Oil and Propane Program August 2000

287

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecastsa quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

International Energy Outlook - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface International Energy Outlook 2004 Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and issues related to electricity and the environment. The International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2004 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2004 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO2004 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on October 1, 2003.

289

Annual Energy Outlook 2003 With Projections to 2025  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3) 3) Annual Energy Outlook 2003 With Projections to 2025 January 2003 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@ eia.doe.gov, 202/586-6351), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Scott Sitzer (ssitzer@ eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308),

290

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Annual Energy Outlook with  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2006 with Projections to 2030 2006 with Projections to 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 presents a forecast and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. The AEO2006 includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation. Forecast Data Tables Reference Case Tables (links to individual excel and PDF files) High Macroeconomic Growth Case Tables (links to individual excel files) Low Macroeconomic Growth Case Tables (links to individual excel files) High Price Case Tables (links to individual excel files) Low Price Case Tables (links to individual excel files)

291

DOE/EIA-0383(2001) Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1) 1) Annual Energy Outlook 2001 With Projections to 2020 December 2000 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@ eia.doe.gov,

292

DOE/EIA-0383(2000) Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0) 0) Annual Energy Outlook 2000 With Projections to 2020 December 1999 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html. For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@

293

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

294

Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Outlook 2010 Restrospective Review July 2011 www.eia.gov U.S. Depa rtment of Energy W ashington, DC 20585 This page inTenTionally lefT blank 3 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review While the integrated nature of NEMS may result in some feedback that slightly modifies the initial assumptions about world oil price and the macroeconomic growth environment, these feedbacks tend to be relatively small, so that the initial assumptions for world oil price and the macroeconomic growth environment largely determine the overall projection environ- ment. To the extent that this general environment deviates from the initial assumptions, the NEMS projection results will also deviate. Table 2 provides a summary of the percentage of years in

295

Summer_Gas_Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- April 2001) (Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- April 2001) 1 Summer 2001 Motor Gasoline Outlook Summary April 2001 For the upcoming summer season (April to September), motor gasoline markets are projected to once again exhibit a very tight supply/demand balance. * Retail gasoline prices (regular grade) are expected to average $1.49 per gallon, slightly lower than last summer's average of $1.53 per gallon, but still above the previous (current-dollar) record summer average of $1.35 recorded in 1981. Nominal prices are expected to reach a peak of $1.52 per gallon in June but then decline gradually to about $1.43 by December. These projections presume no

296

NASEO Energy Outlook Conference  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

NASEO Energy Outlook Conference NASEO Energy Outlook Conference 2/26/01 Click here to start Table of Contents NASEO Energy Outlook Conference Retail Product Prices Are Driven By Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001 Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1991-2001 Total OECD Oil Stocks* Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Vary With Seasons and Supply/Demand Balance U.S. Distillate Inventories Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Both Distillate Supply and Demand Reached Extraordinary Levels This Winter Heating Oil Imports Strong in 2001 Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices Consumer Winter Heating Oil Costs Propane prices Influenced by Crude Oil and Natural Gas

297

Conoco details energy outlook  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports that the U.S., government should adopt policies that encourage U.S. petroleum companies to diversify crude oil sources around the world, says Conoco Inc. That's the key them underlying Conoco's latest world energy outlook through 2000. In its 1989 outlook, Conoco called on the U.S. government to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain to exploration and development and provide a tax credit of $5/bbl of oil equivalent (BOE) for production from U.S. frontier areas as keys to reducing U.S. oil import dependence. Although Conoco included opening the ANWR Coastal Plain and more of the U.S. offshore among U.S. policy recommendations in its current outlook, the company placed the greatest emphasis on incentives for worldwide exploration.

Not Available

1992-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

298

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The IEO2006 projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite The IEO2006 projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than projected in last year's outlook. Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through 2030. The International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO2006) projects strong growth for worldwide energy demand over the 27-year projection period from 2003 to 2030. Despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than projected in last year's outlook, world economic growth continues to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent over the projection period, driving the robust increase in world energy use. Total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 421 quadrillion Brit- ish thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion Btu in

299

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models  

SciTech Connect

We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

2008-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Household Expenditures Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Household Expenditures Module Household Expenditures Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Household Expenditures Module Figure 5. United States Census Divisions. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The Household Expenditures Module (HEM) constructs household energy expenditure profiles using historical survey data on household income, population and demographic characteristics, and consumption and expenditures for fuels for various end-uses. These data are combined with NEMS forecasts of household disposable income, fuel consumption, and fuel expenditures by end-use and household type. The HEM disaggregation algorithm uses these combined results to forecast household fuel consumption and expenditures by income quintile and Census Division (see

302

International energy outlook 2005  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. The outlooks for major energy fuels are discussed, along with electricity, transportation, and environmental issues. After a chapter entitled 'Highlights', the report begins with a review of world energy and an economic outlook. The IEO2005 projections cover a 24 year period. The next chapter is on world oil markets. Natural gas and coal reserves and resources, consumption and trade discussed. The chapter on electricity deals with primary fuel use for electricity generation, and regional developments. The final section is entitled 'Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions'.

NONE

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

304

Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

305

Kaons: Review and Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This article presents a review of recent results and an outlook of kaon physics. After enjoying a renaissance, the discipline is now becoming and endangered species. Action will be needed to keep kaon physics at the heart of future FPCP meetings.

Augusto Ceccucci

2006-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

306

Hadronic Physics: an Outlook  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief outlook, in two senses, is presented for hadronic physics. The likely near term future for experiment and lattice effort is sketched and I speculate on future directions in theory. I also look out at other fields, presenting a short review of QCD ideas in ''Beyond the Standard Model'' physics.

Swanson, Eric S. [Dept of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh PA 15260 (United States)

2010-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

307

International Energy Outlook 2011  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2013 DOE/EIA-0484(2013) ... 930.90 540.30 1982.00 2836.01 1193.30 1092.45 550.26 1983.00 3033.53

308

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the results of an examination of precipitation forecasts for 130-day leads from global models run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ...

John E. Janowiak; Peter Bauer; Wanqiu Wang; Phillip A. Arkin; Jon Gottschalck

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

A customisable downscaling approach for local-scale meteorological and air pollution forecasting: Performance evaluation for a year of urban meteorological forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we develop a customisable downscaling approach for local-scale air quality and meteorological forecasting applications, using The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). The CCAM-TAPM system allows ... Keywords: Air pollution modelling, Meteorological modelling, Verification studies

M. Thatcher; P. Hurley

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the nave method), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Overview Section  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Overview Overview Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030 Energy Trends to 2030 In preparing projections for the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets between today and 2030. This overview focuses on one case, the reference case, which is presented and compared with the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) reference case (see Table 1). Readers are encouraged to review the full range of alternative cases included in other sections of AEO2008. As in previous editions of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), the reference case assumes that current policies affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection period. The reference case provides a clear basis against which alternative cases and policies can be compared. Although current laws and regulations may change over the next 25 years, and new ones may be created, it is not possible to predict what they will be or how they will be implemented [1].

313

Sorting in Patrick Geddes' Outlook Tower  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

i n g in P a t r i c k Outlook Tower Geddes' J Joyce Barleythree months at the Outlook 'lower in Edinburgh, sorting theand services. The Outlook Tower was a disused observatory

Earley, Joyce

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

One: The California Long-Term Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

THE CALIFORNIA LONG-TERM OUTLOOK Tom K. Lieser, ExecutiveThe California Long-Term Outlook: Projections to 2020," TheThe California Long-Term Outlook: Projections to 2020," The

Lieser, Tom K

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Natural Gas Winter Outlook 2000-2001  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This article is based on the Winter Fuels Outlook published in the 4th Quarter Short-Term Energy Outlook and discusses the supply and demand outlook from October 2000 through March 2001.

Information Center

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

317

International Energy Outlook 2000 - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2000 forecast. The use of natural gas is projected to more than double between 1997 and 2020, providing a relatively clean fuel for efficient new gas turbine power plants. Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2000 forecast. The use of natural gas is projected to more than double between 1997 and 2020, providing a relatively clean fuel for efficient new gas turbine power plants. World natural gas consumption continues to grow, increasing its market share of total primary energy consumption. In the International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000), natural gas remains the fastest growing component of world energy consumption. Over the IEO2000 forecast period from 1997 to 2020, gas use is projected to more than double in the reference case, reaching 167 trillion cubic feet in 2020 from the 1997 level of 82 trillion cubic feet (Figure 46). Over the 1997-2020 period, the role of natural gas in energy use is projected to increase in all regions except the Middle

318

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

EIA Short -Term and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2008 NASEO 2008/09 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 7, 2008 Washington, DC Howard Gruenspecht Acting ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Winter Distillate and Natural Gas Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table of Contents. Winter Distillate and Natural Gas Outlook. Distillate Prices Increasing With Crude Oil. Distillate Outlook. When Will Crude Oil Prices Fall?

322

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review 1 Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) * The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards-or of sections of legislation that have been enacted but that require implementing regulations

323

An Outlook on Nuclear Physics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A brief outlook on low-energy nuclear physics is presented. Selected recent developments in nuclear structure theory are highlighted and a few open questions are discussed.

A. B. Balantekin

2013-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

324

An Outlook on Nuclear Physics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A brief outlook on low-energy nuclear physics is presented. Selected recent developments in nuclear structure theory are highlighted and a few open questions are discussed.

Balantekin, A B

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

2/9/2005: Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook. This presentation contains content that your browser may not be able to show properly.

326

EIA - International Energy Outlook 2008  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2008 are consistent with those...

327

Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook Briefing for the 7th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference Orlando, Florida Mike Burdette

328

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Special Analysis Special Analysis + EXPAND ALL Feature Articles Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields September 2013 PDF EIA Estimates of Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Disruptions September 2013 PDF 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages June 2013 PDF Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 PDF Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook February 2013 PDF Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter January 2013 PDF Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations September 2012 PDF Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables August 2012 PDF Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast July 2012 PDF 2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico June 2012 PDF

329

International Energy Outlook 2007  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 (IEO2007) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Admin- istration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2007 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007), which was pre- pared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2007 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associa- tions, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Orga- nization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). Projections in IEO2007 are divided according to Organi- zation for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD). There are

330

International Energy Outlook 2000  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Notes: Today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its mid-term projections of international energy use and carbon emissions, published in the International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000). The IEO2000 report provides an assessment of world energy markets with projections of regional energy consumption, energy consumption by primary fuel, electricity consumption, carbon emissions, nuclear generating capacity, international coal trade flows, and energy use in the transportation sector. World oil production projections are also included in the report. The report is an extension of EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), and the U.S. projections that appear in the IEO are consistent with those published in the AEO. World energy consumption in this year's IEO2000 is projected to

331

International Energy Outlook 2000  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2000 2000 with projections to 2020 March 16, 2000 Jay E. Hakes Energy Information Administration Next slide Back to first slide View graphic version Notes: Today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its mid-term projections of international energy use and carbon emissions, published in the International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000). The IEO2000 report provides an assessment of world energy markets with projections of regional energy consumption, energy consumption by primary fuel, electricity consumption, carbon emissions, nuclear generating capacity, international coal trade flows, and energy use in the transportation sector. World oil production projections are also included in the report. The report is an extension of EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO),

332

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 (IEO2006) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administra- tion (EIA) of the outlook for international energy mar- kets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2006 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006), which was pre- pared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2006 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associa- tions, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Orga- nization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). IEO2006 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non- marketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included

333

Electric Industry Outlook  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Outlook Outlook Challenges and Opportunities that Impact EEI Members and Their Federal Customers Steve Kiesner Director National Customer Markets Federal Utility Partnership Working Group May 22, 2013 San Francisco, CA Agenda  Necessary infrastructure investments to address:  Reliability  Environmental and other policy requirements  And continue the development of a grid for the 21 st Century  Our move to natural gas and what it means to customers  How technology is changing our world and those of our customers  Potential Federal-Utility Partnerships with Electrification as a transportation fuel 2 Infrastructure Investments Richard McMahon Vice President, Finance and Energy Supply Commission lays out U.S. energy efficiency roadmap through 2030

334

2013 Propane Market Outlook  

Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center (EERE)

3 3 Propane Market Outlook Assessment of Key Market Trends, Threats, and Opportunities Facing the Propane Industry Through 2020 P R E S E N T E D B Y : Prepared for the Propane Education & Research Council (PERC) by: ICF International, Inc. 9300 Lee Highway Fairfax, VA 22031 Tel (703) 218-2758 www.icfi.com Principal Authors: Mr. Michael Sloan msloan@icfi.com Mr. Warren Wilczewski wwilczewski@icfi.com Propane Market Outlook at a Glance ¡ Total consumer propane sales declined by more than 17 percent between 2009 and 2012, including 3.3 percent in 2011 and 10 to 12 percent in 2012. The declines in 2011 and 2012 were due primarily to much warmer than normal weather, as well as the impact of higher propane prices and continuing efficiency trends. Sales are expected to rebound in 2013 with a return to more

335

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products

Tancred Lidderdale

2011-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

336

Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Beginning with the December 2010 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EnergyInformation Administration (EIA) will present natural gas consumption forecasts for theresidential and commercial sectors that are consistent with recent changes to the Form EIA-857monthly natural gas survey.

Information Center

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Demand and Price Outlook for Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, 2000 (Released in the STEO August 1999)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This article presents projections of demand and the market price premium for Phase 2 RFG in the year 2000. The projections in this article are based on forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is published monthly by the Energy Information Administration.

Information Center

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

International energy outlook 2006  

SciTech Connect

This report presents international energy projections through 2030, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. After a chapter entitled 'Highlights', the report begins with a review of world energy and economic outlook, followed by energy consumption by end-use sector. The next chapter is on world oil markets. Natural gas, world coal market and electricity consumption and supply are then discussed. The final chapter covers energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

NONE

2006-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

339

World Energy Outlook 2008  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

OECD/IEA - OECD/IEA - 2008 © OECD/IEA - 2008 © OECD/IEA - 2008 To Cover... To Cover To Cover ... ... Transport Energy and CO 2 Where are we going? What are the dangers? How do we change direction? Primarily reporting on: IEA WEO 2008 IEA ETP 2008 On-going work with IEA's Mobility Model One or two detours to talk about modelling © OECD/IEA - 2008 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 - an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year - with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise Where are we headed? World Energy Outlook 2008 Where are we headed? World Energy Outlook Where are we headed? World Energy Outlook

340

International Energy Outlook 2000 - Transportation Energy Use  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2000 projections. Developing nations in Asia and in Central and South America are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2000 projections. Developing nations in Asia and in Central and South America are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Worldwide electricity consumption in 2020 is projected to be 76 percent higher than its 1997 level. Long-term growth in electricity consumption is expected to be strongest in the developing economies of Asia, followed by Central and South America. The projected growth rates for electricity consumption in the developing Asian nations are close to 5 percent per year over the International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000) forecast period (Table 20), and the growth rate for Central and South America averages about 4.2 percent per year. As a result, the developing nations in the two regions

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 June 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights * After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to an average of $103 per barrel in May. EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. * EIA expects the price of regular gasoline will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer driving season (April through September). The annual average regular gasoline retail price is projected to decline from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.49 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.37 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and the current values of

342

International Energy Outlook 1999 - Transportation Energy Use  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

transportation.gif (5350 bytes) transportation.gif (5350 bytes) Transportation energy use is projected to constitute more than half of the world’s oil consumption in 2020. Developing nations account for more than half the expected growth in transportation energy use in the IEO99 forecast. The International Energy Outlook 1999 (IEO99) presents a more detailed analysis than in previous years of the underlying factors conditioning long-term growth prospects for worldwide transportation energy demand. A nation’s transportation system is generally an excellent indicator of its level of economic development. In many countries, personal travel still means walking or bicycling, and freight movement often involves domesticated animals. High rates of growth from current levels in developing countries such as China and India still leave their populations

343

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Energy Module Energy Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 21 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Module The LFMM International Energy Module (IEM) simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. It uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world crude-like liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. liquid fuels markets on the international petroleum market. For each year of the forecast, the LFMM IEM computes BRENT and WTI prices, provides a supply curve of world crude-like liquids, and generates a worldwide oil supply- demand balance with regional detail. The IEM also provides, for each year of the projection period, endogenous and

344

Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. This forecast assumes there are no disruptions to energy markets arising from the recent unrest in Egypt. After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to an average of $103 per barrel in May and June, about the same as its average over the same two-month period last year.  The discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012 and increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in

345

International Energy Outlook 2001 - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2001 forecast. The use of natural gas is projected to nearly double between 1999 and 2020, providing a relatively clean fuel for efficient new gas turbine power plants. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing component of world energy consumption in the International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001) reference case. Gas use is projected to almost double, to 162 trillion cubic feet in 2020 from 84 trillion cubic feet in 1999 (Figure 38). With an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, the share of natural gas in total primary energy consumption is projected to grow to 28 percent from 23 percent. The largest increments in gas use are expected in Central and

346

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 with Projections to 2025 5 with Projections to 2025 Report #: DOE/EIA-0383(2005) Release date full report: January 2005 Next release date full report: January 2006 Early Release Reference Case date: December 2005 The Annual Energy Outlook presents a midterm forecast and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. AEO2005 includes a reference case and over 30 sensitivities. Data Tables Summary Tables Adobe Acrobat Logo Yearly Tables Excel logo Regional and other detailed tables Excel logo (Supplemental) Contents Overview Market Drivers Trends in Economic Activity Economic Growth Cases International Oil Markets Energy Demand Projections Buildings Sector

347

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20041 (AEO2004), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview3, which is updated once every two years. The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2004 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the U.S. Congress, the Administration, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies.

348

10-Year Outlook Executive Summary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Ontarios electricity system faces significant challenges over the next 10 years. The uncertainty surrounding the return to service of Pickering A nuclear units, the lack of new generation investment and the commitment to shut down 7,500 MW of coal fired generation by December 31, 2007, all contribute to a potentially severe shortfall. New transmission, supply and demand side initiatives are urgently needed to address this gap and secure Ontarios energy future. The need is most pressing in the Toronto area, to deal with the immediate impact of the April 30, 2005 shutdown of the Lakeview Thermal Generating Station. Plans are being implemented to address this in the short term. In the longer term, additional generation is also required in the Toronto area to replace the Lakeview generating capacity and to meet load growth in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Each year the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) publishes an integrated assessment of the security and adequacy of the Ontario electricity system over the next 10 years. This report presents the IMO assessment for the 10-year period from 2005 to 2014. It is based on the IMOs forecast of electricity demand, information provided by Ontario generators on the supply that will be available and the latest information on the configuration and capability of the transmission system. Electricity Supply Outlook Additional Ontario electricity supply and demand-side measures are required to maintain supply adequacy into the future and to reduce Ontarios dependency on supply from other jurisdictions.

unknown authors

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, third quarter 1996  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the second quarter of 1996, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the third quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

NONE

1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010 213 Appendix F Regional Maps Figure F1. United States Census Divisions Pacific East South Central South Atlantic Middle Atlantic New England West South Central West North Central East North Central Mountain AK WA MT WY ID NV UT CO AZ NM TX OK IA KS MO IL IN KY TN MS AL FL GA SC NC WV PA NJ MD DE NY CT VT ME RI MA NH VA WI MI OH NE SD MN ND AR LA OR CA HI Middle Atlantic New England East North Central West North Central Pacific West South Central East South Central South Atlantic Mountain Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Appendix F Regional Maps Figure F1. United States Census Divisions U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

352

The Information Needed to Evaluate the Worth of Uncertain Information, Predictions and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To evaluate the worth of uncertain information one must obtain three types of evaluative information: 1) statistical measures of the uncertainty of the information and of its likely occurrence; 2) the decision rule (how the information is used) ...

Donald R. Davis; Soronadi Nnaji

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release Overview  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analyses > Annual Energy Outlook Early Release > Overview Analyses > Annual Energy Outlook Early Release > Overview Annual Energy Outlook Early Release Overview Full Printer-Friendly Version Overview Energy Trends to 2035 | Economic Growth | Energy Prices | Energy Consumption by Sector | Energy Consumption by Primary Fuel | Energy Intensity | Energy Production and Imports | Electricity Generation | Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions | Energy Trends to 2035 In preparing the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets. This overview focuses primarily on one case, the AEO2010 reference case, which is presented and compared with the updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (updated AEO2009) reference case released in April 20091 (see Table 1 below). Because of the uncertainties inherent in any energy market projection, particularly in periods of high price volatility, rapid market transformation, or active changes in legislation, the reference case results should not be viewed in isolation. Readers are encouraged to review the alternative cases when the complete AEO2010 publication is released in order to gain perspective on how variations in key assumptions can lead to different outlooks for energy markets.

354

International Energy Outlook 2006 - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface International Energy Outlook 2006 Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2030, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO2006) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2006 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2006 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade

355

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Brcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

FIVE-YEAR FINANCIAL OUTLOOK  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Outlook) for the City of San Diego which presented a comprehensive examination of the Citys long range fiscal condition. The Financial Outlook has proven to be an important planning tool for the City of San Diego. The Outlook guided the City in establishing the fiscal year 2008 annual budget and has served throughout the year as the basis for longer term fiscal decisionmaking. The Outlook has communicated the Citys fiscal priorities along with the Citys strengths and the challenges that remain in achieving a balanced General Fund budget and fiscal health. The updated Five-Year Financial Outlook (2009-2013 Outlook) includes revised revenue and expenditure projections for fiscal years 2009 through 2013 as well as additional fiscal commitments that have emerged since the 2008-2012 Outlook was issued. Similar to the 2008-2012 Outlook, the revised revenue and expenditure estimates in the 2009-2013 Outlook are based on a variety of assumptions in the context of current and projected economic conditions. The updated Outlook not only identifies revenue and expenditure trends but also discusses risks and opportunities that affect fiscal decisions and the Citys ability to accomplish its strategic goals over the next five-year period. Those goals include: Preservation of City services to the fullest extent possible. Fund the operations of new public facilities. Meet contractual obligations and fund mandated programs. Contribute the full payment of the Annual Required Contribution (ARC) for the Citys pension system. Establish and maintain adequate General Fund reserves according to City Charter Section 91 and the City Reserve Policy recently approved by the City Council. Address other significant financial obligations with a longer-term strategy.

Jerry Sanders; Jay M. Goldstone

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Instructions for using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access (OWA) Instructions for using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access (OWA) Provides instructions for remote Outlook access using...

358

Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook Nan Zhou, Michael A.2001, International Energy Outlook 2001 , Report No. DOE/The International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO2006) , Washington

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Global and U.S. Immigration: Patterns, Issues, and Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

U.S. Immigration: Patterns, Issues, and Outlook, 2008. No.Mexicos Deteriorating Oil Outlook: Implications and EnergyPatterns, Issues, and Outlook Philip Martin Professor of

Martin, Philip

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Progress and Outlook on China Industrial Energy Conservation...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Progress and Outlook on China Industrial Energy Conservation Progress and Outlook on China Industrial Energy Conservation Progress and Outlook on China Industrial Energy...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

April 2013 Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

and Summer Fuels Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights  During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63 per gallon. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in 2012. The July 2013 New York harbor reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures contract averaged $2.97 per gallon for the five trading days ending April 4, 2013. Based on the market value of

362

DOE/EIA-0484(2000) International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0) 0) International Energy Outlook 2000 March 2000 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222),

363

Annual Energy Outlook 2007: With Projections to 2030  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) June 2008 Annual Energy Outlook 2008 With Projections to 2030 DRAFT -- 6/24/2008 ***** NOT FOR RELEASE ***** For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, under the direc- tion of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Director, Demand and Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; A. Michael Schaal (michael.schaal@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-5590), Director, Oil and Gas Division; Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Technical Advisor.

364

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Annual Energy Outlook with  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

with Projections to 2030 with Projections to 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030 The Annual Energy Outlook 2007 presents a projection and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. The AEO2007 includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation. The report is also released in print. Errata as of 10/15/07 Forecast Data Tables Reference Case Tables (links to individual excel and PDF files) High Economic Growth Case Tables (links to individual excel and PDF files) Low Economic Growth Case Tables (links to individual excel and PDF files) High Price Case Tables (links to individual excel and PDF files)

365

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6) 6) February 2006 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 With Projections to 2030 February 2006 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Director, Demand and Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Acting Director, Oil and Gas Division and Senior Technical Advisor; and Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available

366

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Footnotes  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Feedback Feedback Related Links Annual Energy Outlook2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage FOOTNOTES [1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001), DOE/EIA-0383(2001), (Washington, DC, December 2000). [2] NEMS documentation reports are available on the EIA CD-ROM and the EIA Homepage (http://www.eia.gov/bookshelf.html). For ordering information on the CD-ROM, contact STAT-USA's toll free order number: 1-800-STAT-USA or by calling (202) 482-1986. [3] Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000, DOE/EIA-0581(2000), (Washington, DC, March 2000). [4] The underlying macroeconomic growth cases use Standard and Poor’s DRI February 2000 T250200 and February TO250299 and TP250299.

367

Annual Energy Outlook 2009: With Projections to 2030  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9) 9) March 2009 Annual Energy Outlook 2009 With Projections to 2030 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, under the direc- tion of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Director, Demand and Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; A. Michael Schaal (michael.schaal@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-5590), Director, Oil and Gas Division; Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Technical Advisor. For ordering information and questions on other

368

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Annual Energy Outlook 2007 -  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Director, Demand and Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; A. Michael Schaal (michael.schaal@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-5590), Director, Oil and Gas Division; Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Technical Advisor.

369

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Contact Information  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

For Further Information For Further Information Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 For Further Information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Director, Demand and Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Coal and Electric Power Division; Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Acting Director, Oil and Gas Division and Senior Technical Advisor; and Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188), Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division.

370

DOE/EIA-0484(2001) International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1) 1) International Energy Outlook 2001 March 2001 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222),

371

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Overview  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Overview Overview Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Overview Index (click to jump links) Key Energy Issues to 2025 Economic Growth Energy Prices Energy Consumption Energy Intensity Electricity Generation Energy Production and Imports Carbon Dioxide Emissions Key Energy Issues to 2025 For almost 4 years, natural gas prices have remained at levels substantially higher than those of the 1990s. This has led to a reevaluation of expectations about future trends in natural gas markets, the economics of exploration and production, and the size of the natural gas resource. The Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) forecast reflects such revised expectations, projecting greater dependence on more costly alternative supplies of natural gas, such as imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with expansion of existing terminals and development of new facilities, and remote resources from Alaska and from the Mackenzie Delta in Canada, with completion of the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System and the Mackenzie Delta pipeline.

372

Economic impact evaluation of short-term load forecast errors using a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Under the circumstances of Power Market, load forecast errors directly lead to the increase of costs of dispatch and maintenance. With a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm (MSCOA), and the next-day units bidding model as the valuation model ... Keywords: MSCOA, load forecast error, power market

Jiang Chuanwen; Li Shuai; Wang Chengmin

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

International Energy Outlook - Table of Contents  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook EIA Glossary International Energy Outlook 2004 Report #: DOE/EIA-0484(2004) Release date: April 2004 Next release date: July 2005 The International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S.projections appearing in IEO2004 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Table of Contents Appendixes Highlights World Energy and Economic Outlook Outlook for Primary Energy Consumption Energy End Use Outlook for Carbon Dioxide Emissions World Economic Outlook Alternative Growth Case Trends in Energy Intensity

375

DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections November 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .lort lort lort lort <.ort ort Tt- .-m .erm -Term -Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Nrm ,iergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short Short Short Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short Short Short Short Short-

376

DOE/EIA-0202(84/2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2QH 2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections May 1984 Published: June 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .iort .iort- iort- iort- '.ort- ort- .m .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term i-Term rTerm -Term xrm uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Tern Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

377

DOE/EIA-0202(85/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections January 1985 Published: February 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort lort lort nort lort *.ort ort Tt .m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short

378

DOE/EIA-0202(84/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections February 1984 Published: March 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- .iort- iort- lort- Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term' Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

379

DOE/EIA-0202(85/2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook amm Quarterly Projections April 1985 Published: May 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D C t rt jrt .ort lort .iort iort iort lort '.ort ort .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

380

DOE/EIA-0202(84/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4Q) 4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections October 1984 Published: November 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort iort lort iort lort \ort ort Tt .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short Short- Short- Short Short Short Short Short Short

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

International Energy Outlook 1998  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

B B World Energy Projection System The projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) are derived from the World Energy Projection System (WEPS). WEPS is an integrated set of personal-computer-based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product [GDP]) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and

382

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO forecast plume during the 200211 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Energy and Emissions Long Term Outlook A Detailed Simulation of Energy Supply-Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The paper presents the results of a detailed, bottom-up modeling exercise of Mexicos energy markets. The Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP), the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) and the Energy Demand Model (MODEMA) were used to develop forecasts to 2025. Primary energy supply is projected to grow from 9,313 PJ (1999) to 13,130 PJ (2025). Mexicos crude oil production is expected to increase by 1 % annually to 8,230 PJ. As its domestic crude refining capacity becomes unable to meet the rising demand for petroleum products, imports of oil products will become increasingly important. The Mexican natural gas markets are driven by the strong demand for gas in the power generating and manufacturing industries which significantly outpaces projected domestic production. The result is a potential need for large natural gas imports that may reach approximately 46 % of total gas supplies by 2025. The long-term market outlook for Mexicos electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on naturalgas based generating technologies. Gas-fired generation is forecast to increase 26-fold eventually accounting for over 80 % of total generation by 2025. Alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario show a substantial shift to coal-based generation and the associated effects on the natural gas market. A renewables scenario investigates impacts of additional renewables for power generation (primarily wind plus some solar-photovoltaic). A nuclear scenario analyzes the impacts of additional nuclear power

Juan Quintanilla Martnez; Autnoma Mxico; Centro Mario Molina; Juan Quintanilla Martnez

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Evaluation of COAMPS Forecasts of Coastal Stratus Using Satellite Microphysical Retrievals and Aircraft Measurements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A field project was carried out offshore of central Oregon during August 1999 to evaluate mesoscale model simulations of coastal stratiform cloud layers. Procedures for mapping cloud physical parameters such as cloud optical depth, droplet ...

Melanie A. Wetzel; Steven K. Chai; Marcin J. Szumowski; William T. Thompson; Tracy Haack; Gabor Vali; Robert Kelly

2001-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Evaluation of Tools Used for Monitoring and Forecasting Flash Floods in the United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates, for the first time, flash-flood guidance (FFG) values and recently developed gridded FFG (GFFG) used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to monitor and predict imminent flash flooding, which is the leading storm-related ...

Jonathan J. Gourley; Jessica M. Erlingis; Yang Hong; Ernest B. Wells

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Annual Energy Outlook 1999  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(Errata as of 9/9/1999) (Errata as of 9/9/1999) arrow1.gif (850 bytes) Preface bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Administrator's Message bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Overview bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Legislation & Regulations bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Issues in Focus bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Market Trends bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Comparisons bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Major Assumptions for the Forecasts bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Appendix Tables) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts link.gif (1946 bytes) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO99 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO99 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage

387

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Commands (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range ...

Thomas R. Saxen; Cynthia K. Mueller; Thomas T. Warner; Matthias Steiner; Edward E. Ellison; Eric W. Hatfield; Terri L. Betancourt; Susan M. Dettling; Niles A. Oien

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Evaluation of a cloud scale lightning data assimilation technique and a 3DVAR method for the analysis and short-term forecast of the 29 June 2012 derecho event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work evaluates the short-term forecast (? 6-h) of the 29-30 June 2012 derecho event from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) ARW model when using two distinct data assimilation techniques at cloud resolving scales (3-km horizontal grid). ...

Alexandre O. Fierro; Jidong Gao; Conrad L. Ziegler; Edward R. Mansell; Donald R. Macgorman; Scott R. Dembek

389

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H13. World net liquids-fired electricity generation by region and country, 2010-2040 (billion kilowatthours) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 93 74 68 66 64 62 60 -1.5 United States a 37 20 17 18 18 18 18 -2.3 Canada 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 -1.0 Mexico/Chile 49 47 45 42 40 38 36 -1.0 OECD Europe 77 73 70 66 63 60 57 -1.0 OECD Asia 112 157 102 97 92 87 83 -1.0 Japan 92 137 83 79 75 71 68 -1.0 South Korea 18 17 16 15 15 14 13 -1.0 Australia/New Zealand 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 -1.0 Total OECD 282 303 239 229 219 209 200 -1.1 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

390

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A8. World nuclear energy consumption by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (billion kilowatthours) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 894 899 932 978 1,032 1,054 1,030 1,066 0.6 United States a 799 807 820 885 912 908 875 903 0.4 Canada 86 86 99 81 99 117 118 118 1.0 Mexico/Chile 10 6 12 12 21 29 37 46 7.3 OECD Europe 840 867 892 929 1,045 1,065 1,077 1,073 0.7 OECD Asia 406 415 301 447 490 551 557 576 1.1 Japan 266 274 103 192 200 206 209 209 -0.9 South Korea 140 141 198 255 291 346 348 367 3.2 Australia/NewZealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- Total OECD 2,140 2,181 2,124 2,354 2,567 2,670 2,664 2,715 0.7 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 272 274 344 414 475 533 592 630 2.8 Russia

391

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A12. World carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas use by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (million metric tons carbon dioxide) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 1,511 1,563 1,686 1,793 1,888 1,987 2,114 2,233 1.2 United States a 1,222 1,266 1,357 1,404 1,431 1,468 1,528 1,570 0.7 Canada 170 162 171 199 223 240 255 271 1.7 Mexico/Chile 119 135 158 190 234 279 331 392 3.6 OECD Europe 1,024 1,082 1,086 1,123 1,144 1,215 1,277 1,348 0.7 OECD Asia 347 377 408 438 478 505 539 561 1.3 Japan 205 215 242 257 276 288 293 293 1.0 South Korea 72 90 91 98 110 117 136 148 1.7 Australia/NewZealand 70 71 75 83 91 101 110 119 1.7 Total OECD 2,882 3,022 3,180 3,353 3,510

392

International energy outlook 1998  

SciTech Connect

The International Energy Outlook 1998 (IEO98) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. Projections in IEO98 are displaced according to six basic country groupings. The industrialized region includes projections for four individual countries -- the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Japan -- along with the subgroups Western Europe and Australasia (defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the US Territories). The developing countries are represented by four separate regional subgroups: developing Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China and India are represented in developing Asia. New to this year`s report, country-level projections are provided for Brazil -- which is represented in Central and South America. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) are considered as a separate country grouping. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in five fuel chapters, with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Summary tables of the IEO98 projections for world energy consumption, carbon emissions, oil production, and nuclear power generating capacity are provided in Appendix A. 88 figs., 77 tabs.

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

International energy outlook 1999  

SciTech Connect

This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. The outlooks for major energy fuels are discussed, along with electricity, transportation, and environmental issues. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. The historical time frame begins with data from 1970 and extends to 1996, providing readers with a 26-year historical view of energy demand. The IEO99 projections covers a 24-year period. The next part of the report is organized by energy source. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in the five fuel chapters, along with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. The third part of the report looks at energy consumption in the end-use sectors, beginning with a chapter on energy use for electricity generation. New to this year`s outlook are chapters on energy use in the transportation sector and on environmental issues related to energy consumption. 104 figs., 87 tabs.

NONE

1999-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels OutlookWinter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home heating oil retail price includes taxes. 16 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012.

396

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007 - World Energy and Economic Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Energy and Economic Outlook World Energy and Economic Outlook International Energy Outlook 2007 Chapter 1 - World Energy and Economic Outlook In the IEO2007 reference case, total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030. The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECD region. Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 (Quadrillion Btu). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 9. World Marketed Energy Use; OECD and Non-OECD, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 10. Marketed Energy Use in the NON-OECD Economies by Region, 1980-2030 (Quadrillion Btu). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

398

International Energy Outlook - World Energy and Economic Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Energy and Economic Outlook World Energy and Economic Outlook International Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy and Economic Outlook The IEO2004 projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, including large increases for the developing economies of Asia. Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through 2025. Figure 12. World Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 Figure Data Figure 13. World Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 14. World Primary Energy Consumption by Energy Source, 1970-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

399

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, 2nd quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 1995. Values for the first quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available. The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1994 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the STIFS. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

Not Available

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

States. States. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes unconventional gas recovery from low permeability formations of sandstone and shale, and coalbeds. Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 93 Figure 7. Oil and Gas Supply Model Regions Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Report #:DOE/EIA-0554(2007) Release date: April 2007 Next release date: March 2008 Primary inputs for the module are varied. One set of key assumptions concerns estimates of domestic technically recoverable oil and gas resources. Other factors affecting the projection include the assumed

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Petroleum Market Module Figure 8. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohols, ethers, and bioesters natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of U.S. refining

402

International Energy Outlook 2005  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

5) I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 5 July 2005 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy...

403

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Predictions of Turbulent Flow Parameters in a Dry Convective Boundary Layer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions using different boundary layer schemes and horizontal grid spacings were compared with observational and numerical large-eddy simulation data for conditions corresponding to a dry ...

Jeremy A. Gibbs; Evgeni Fedorovich; Alexander M. J. van Eijk

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

RAINSAT. A One Year Evaluation of a Bispectral Method for the Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting of Precipitation Areas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

RAINSAT uses under data to calibrate GOES visible and infra data in terms of probability of rain. It produces probability of rain maps and 3 h forecast probability of rain maps by extrapolation.

Patrick King; Tsoi-Ching Yip; J. David Steenbergen

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use the Jarvis-type stomatal resistance formulations for representing the vegetation transpiration processes. The Jarvis scheme, however, despite its robustness, needs ...

Dev Niyogi; Kiran Alapaty; Sethu Raman; Fei Chen

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Kimberly L. Elmore; John S. Kain; Steven J. Weiss; Ming Xue; Morris L. Weisman

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Pharmaceutical crops have a mixed outlook in California  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

crops have a mixed outlook in California by Michelle Marvieras environmental harm. The outlook for the production of

Marvier, Michelle

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2001.

409

U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2000.

410

U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2000

411

U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2000.

412

International Energy Outlook 2001 - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and issues related to electricity, transportation, and the environment. The International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. The report is an extension of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). U.S. projections appearing in the IEO2001 are consistent with those published in the AEO2001. IEO2001 is provided as a statistical service to energy managers and analysts, both in

413

EIA - International Energy Outlook 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook International Energy Outlook 2010 Graphic Data - World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook Figure 12. World marketed energy consumption, 1990-2035 Figure 13. World marketed energy consumption:OECD and Non-OECD, 1990-2035 Figure 14. Shares of world energy consumption in the United States, China, and India, 1990-2035 Figure 15. Marketed energy use in the Non-OECD economies by region, 1990-2035 Figure 16. World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990-2035 Figure 17. Coal consumption in selected world regions, 1990-2035 Figure 18. World electricity generation by fuel, 2007-2035 Figure 19. Renewable electricity generation in China by energy source, 2007-2035 Figure 20. World nuclear generating capacity by region, 2007 and 2035

414

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

DOE/EIA-0202(98/3Q) Distribution Category UC-950 Short-Term Energy Outlook July 1998 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use

415

International Energy Outlook - Download Report  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

PDF Highlights PDF World Energy and Economic Outlook PDF World Oil Markets PDF Natural Gas PDF Coal PDF Electricity PDF Environmental Issues and World Energy Use PDF Index PDF...

416

Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

A presentation to the 7th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference, in Orlando, Florida, on February 3, 2005, giving EIAs outlook for petroleum supply and prices, with particular attention to jet fuel.

Information Center

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

417

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2009  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

& Analysis > AEO 2009 & Analysis > AEO 2009 Annual Energy Outlook 2009 The Early Release for next year's Annual Energy Outlook will be presented at the John Hopkins Kenney Auditorium on December 14th Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Service Report, April 2009 The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case was updated to reflect the provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) that were enacted in mid-February 2009. The reference case in the recently published AEO2009, which reflected laws and regulations in effect as of November 2008, does not include ARRA. The need to develop an updated reference case following the passage of ARRA also provided the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with an opportunity to update the

418

International Energy Outlook 2007  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 95 percent, compared with an increase of 24 percent in the OECD countries. In the IEO2007 reference case-which reflects a scenario where current laws and policies remain unchanged throughout the projection period-world marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent over the 2004 to 2030 period. Total world energy use rises from 447 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2004 to 559 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 702 qua- drillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 1). Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices that are projected to persist into the mid-term outlook. The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2004 to 2030 is projected for nations outside

419

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Graphic Data Graphic Data International Energy Outlook 2006 Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1980-2030 Figure 1 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 2. World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2003-2030 Figure 2 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 3. World Marketed Energy Use by Energy Type, 1980-2030 Figure 3 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 4. Fuel Shares of World Marketed Energy Use, 2003, 2015, and 2030 Figure 4 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 5. World Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation by Fuel Type, 2003, 2015, and 2030 Figure 5 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

420

International Energy Outlook - Coal  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Coal International Energy Outlook 2004 Coal Although coal use is expected to be displaced by natural gas in some parts of the world, only a slight drop in its share of total energy consumption is projected by 2025. Coal continues to dominate fuel markets in developing Asia. Figure 52. World Coal Consumption, 1970-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 53. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2001 and 2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 54. Coal Share of Regional Energy Consumption, 1970-2025. Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data World coal consumption has been in a period of generally slow growth since

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Coal Although coal use is expected to be displaced by natural gas in some parts of the world, only a slight drop in its share of total energy consumption is projected by 2025. Coal continues to dominate many national fuel markets in developing Asia. World coal consumption has been in a period of generally slow growth since the late 1980s, a trend that is projected to continue. Although total world consumption of coal in 2001, at 5.26 billion short tons,12 was more than 27 percent higher than the total in 1980, it was 1 percent below the 1989 peak of 5.31 billion short tons (Figure 56). The International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) reference case projects some growth in coal use between 2001 and 2025, at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent (on a tonnage basis), but with considerable variation among regions.

422

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 2003 to 2030. energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 2003 to 2030. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide, and oil remains the dominant energy source. In the International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO2006) ref- erence case, world marketed energy consumption increases on average by 2.0 percent per year from 2003 to 2030. Although world oil prices in the reference case, which remain between $47 and $59 per barrel (in real 2004 dollars), dampen the growth in demand for oil, total world energy use continues to increase as a result of robust economic growth. Worldwide, total energy use grows from 421 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 1). The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2003 to 2030 is projected for nations outside the Organization

423

International Energy Outlook 1998  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Preface Highlights World Energy Consumption The World Oil Market (Errata as of May 13, 1998) Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Power Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Energy Electricity Appendix A-World Energy Consumption, Oil Production, and Carbon Emissions Tables (PDF) Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A1-A13 Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A14-A26 Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A27-A39 Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A40-A50 Appendix B-World Energy Projection System Appendix C-A Status Report on Developing Transportation for Caspian Basin Oil and Gas Production Preface The Energy Information Administration’s outlook for world energy trends is presented in this report. Model projections now extending to the year 2020 are reported, and regional trends are discussed.

424

International Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Oil Markets World Oil Markets In the IEO2006 reference case, world oil demand increases by 47 percent from 2003 to 2030. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, accounts for 43 percent of the increase. In the IEO2006 reference case, world oil demand grows from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million bar- rels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030. Demand increases strongly despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than in last year's outlook. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the nations of non-OECD Asia, where strong economic growth is expected. Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) accounts for 43 percent of the total increase in world oil use over the projection period. To meet the projected increase in world oil demand in the IEO2006 reference case, total petroleum supply in 2030 will need to increase

425

EIA - 2009 International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2009 The International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2009 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), (March 2009). A revised, updated AEO2009 reference case projection was released on April 17, 2009. It reflects the impact of provisions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA2009), enacted in mid-February 2009, on U.S. energy markets. The revised AEO2009 reference case includes updates for the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, which has been changing at an unusually rapid rate in recent months. Throughout IEO2009, significant changes to the U.S. outlook relative to the published AEO2009 reference case are noted for the reader's reference. The complete revised AEO2009 reference case results for the United States can be viewed on the EIA web site: http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo.

426

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

428

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

429

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

430

Long-Term U.S. Energy Outlook: Different Perspectives  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Paul Holtberg, Moderator Paul Holtberg, Moderator April 26, 2011 | Washington, D.C. Long-Term U.S. Energy Outlook: Different Perspectives Speakers 2 Paul Holtberg, 2011 EIA Energy Conference Washington, D.C., April 26, 2011 * John Conti, Assistant Administrator of Energy Analysis, Energy Information Administration * Mark Finley, General Manager, Global Energy Markets and U.S. Economics, BP * Douglas Meade, Director of Research, INFORUM Forecasts/projections and uncertainty 3 Paul Holtberg, 2011 EIA Energy Conference Washington, D.C., April 26, 2011 * Forecast or projections? * Know your analyst * Tools * Uncertainty - Basic underlying trends (e.g., population growth, economic growth, social norms) - Technology (e.g., new technologies, improved technology, breakthroughs vs. evolutionary, new applications)

431

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025- Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an "Overview" summarizing the AEO2004 reference case. The next section, "Legislation and Regulations," discusses evolving legislation and regulatory issues. "Issues in Focus" includes discussions of future labor productivity growth; lower 48 natural gas depletion and productive capacity; natural gas supply options, with a focus on liquefied natural gas; natural gas demand for Canadian oil sands production; National Petroleum Council forecasts for natural gas; natural gas consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors; nuclear power plant construction costs; renewable electricity tax credits; and U.S. greenhouse gas intensity. It is followed by a discussion of "Energy Market Trends."

432

Annual Energy Outlook 2002 with Projections to 2020 - Contact  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

For Further Information..... For Further Information..... The Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Acting Administrator, EIA; Scott Sitzer (ssitzer@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308), Acting Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Susan H. Holte (sholte@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4838), Director of the Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (jkendell@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9646), Director of the Oil and Gas Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Technical Advisor. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center.

433

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Household Expenditures  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Completed Copy in PDF Format Completed Copy in PDF Format Related Links Annual Energy Outlook2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Household Expenditures Module Key Assumptions The historical input data used to develop the HEM version for the AEO2001 consists of recent household survey responses, aggregated to the desired level of detail. Two surveys performed by the Energy Information Administration are included in the AEO2001 HEM database, and together these input data are used to develop a set of baseline household consumption profiles for the direct fuel expenditure analysis. These surveys are the 1997 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the 1991 Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS). HEM uses the consumption forecast by NEMS for the residential and

434

The Influence of CarlGustaf Rossby on Mesoscale Weather Prediction and an Outlook for the Future  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article presents an overview of the advances in mesoscale prediction from the time of Rossby to the present and an outlook for the future. The first part traces the evolution of research and forecasting based upon the conservation of certain ...

Robert Gall; Melvyn Shapiro

2000-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Retrospective Review  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

S e p t e mb e r 2 0 0 8 S e p t e mb e r 2 0 0 8 N e x t R e l e a s e D a t e : S e p t e mb e r 2 0 0 9 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Retrospective Review 1 Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2008) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and

437

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 [1] (AEO2010), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports [2]. The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2010 were produced with the NEMS, which is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the long term and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the White House, U.S. Congress, offices within the Department of Energy, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections are also used by analysts and planners in other government agencies and outside organizations.

438

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009),1 including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2009 were produced with the NEMS, which is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the long term and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the White House, U.S. Congress, offices within the Department of Energy, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections are also used by analysts and planners in other government agencies and outside organizations.

439

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

A U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2011  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2011 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Assumptions to the July 2011 www.eia.gov U.S. Depa rtment of Energy W ashington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................3

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

442

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Environment. Greenhouse gas data, voluntary report- ing, electric power plant emissions. Highlights Short-Term Energy Outlook ...

443

Cluster Expansion Methods - Progress and Outlook  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Symposium, Computational Thermodynamics and Kinetics. Presentation Title, Cluster Expansion Methods - Progress and Outlook. Author(s), Axel van de Walle .

444

International Energy Outlook 2011 - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Natural gas Unconventional Total Conventional Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2011

445

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy intensity (Energy consumption/real $ GDP) About the Annual Energy Outlook. Contact Information and Staff; ... Updated capital cost for ...

446

Highlights of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

is designed to work with a frames capable browser. It may not work as well without the frames capability. Go on to the Table of Contents...

447

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F1. Total world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and fuel, 2010-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Sector/fuel Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Liquids 9.5 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 -0.4 Natural gas 19.9 20.8 22.6 24.8 27.1 29.0 30.8 1.5 Coal 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 -0.3 Electricity 17.6 20.1 23.1 26.4 30.0 33.9 38.0 2.6 Total 52.0 55.1 59.8 65.0 70.8 76.3 81.8 1.5 Commercial Liquids 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 -0.4 Natural gas 8.4 8.8 9.4 10.2 11.1 11.8 12.4 1.3 Coal 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.5 Electricity 14.8 16.5 18.6 21.3 24.3 27.5 31.1 2.5 Total 28.9 30.8 33.6 37.1 40.9 44.8 49.0 1.8 Industrial Liquids 57.2 61.6 66.4 70.1 74.2 78.2 82.1 1.2 Natural gas 45.5 48.8 54.3 59.0 63.4

448

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F9. Delivered energy consumption in Australia/New Zealand by end-use sector and fuel, 2008-2035 (quadrillion Btu) Sector/fuel Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Liquids 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Natural gas 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.5 Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Electricity 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 Total 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 Commercial Liquids 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Natural gas 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Electricity 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 Total 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 Industrial Liquids 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 Natural gas 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 Coal 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 Electricity

449

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 High Oil Price case projections Table D4. World liquids consumption by region, High Oil Price case, 2009-2040 (million barrels per day) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 23.1 23.5 23.4 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.9 23.5 0.0 United States a 18.6 18.9 18.7 18.8 18.4 17.7 17.4 17.5 -0.3 Canada 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 0.2 Mexico/Chile 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 1.4 OECD Europe 15.0 14.8 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 -0.3 OECD Asia 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.4 -0.1 Japan 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 -0.7 South Korea 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 0.5 Australia/NewZealand 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 Total OECD 45.8 46.0 44.6 44.3 43.8 43.6 43.8 44.3 -0.1 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

450

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F3. Delivered energy consumption in the United States by end-use sector and fuel, 2010-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Sector/fuel Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Liquids 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1.0 Natural gas 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 -0.5 Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 Electricity 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.0 0.7 Total 11.4 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 0.1 Commercial Liquids 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.3 Natural gas 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.5 Coal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.7 Electricity 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 0.8 Total 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 0.6 Industrial Liquids 8.4 8.2 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.7 0.1 Natural gas 8.0 8.7 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.4 0.9 Coal 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

451

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F5. Delivered energy consumption in Mexico and Chile by end-use sector and fuel, 2010-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Sector/fuel Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Liquids 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 Natural gas 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4 Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 Electricity 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 4.0 Total 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.4 Commercial Liquids 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Natural gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Electricity 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 5.5 Total 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 4.0 Industrial Liquids 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 Natural gas 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.5 Coal 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 3.1 Electricity

452

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A6. World natural gas consumption by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (trillion cubic feet) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 28.2 29.2 31.3 33.4 35.1 37.0 39.4 41.6 1.2 United States a 22.9 23.8 25.3 26.3 26.9 27.6 28.7 29.5 0.7 Canada 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 1.7 Mexico/Chile 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.3 5.1 6.1 7.2 3.6 OECD Europe 18.8 19.8 19.7 20.4 20.8 22.1 23.2 24.5 0.7 OECD Asia 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 9.9 1.3 Japan 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 1.0 South Korea 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 1.7 Australia/NewZealand 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.7 Total OECD 53.2 55.6 58.2 61.5 64.4 68.0 72.1 76.0 1.0 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 19.8 21.8

453

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F13. Delivered energy consumption in China by end-use sector and fuel, 2010-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Sector/fuel Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Liquids 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 -1.0 Natural gas 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.7 5.9 7.1 7.2 Coal 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 -0.2 Electricity 1.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 6.3 7.8 9.2 5.7 Total 6.9 8.3 10.3 12.5 15.0 17.7 20.0 3.6 Commercial Liquids 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 -0.8 Natural gas 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 7.1 Coal 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 Electricity 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.4 6.5 Total 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.3 6.4 7.6 3.8 Industrial Liquids 8.4 10.2 11.4 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.0 1.5 Natural gas 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.5

454

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 121.3 126.1 129.7 132.9 137.2 143.6 0.6 United States a 94.9 97.9 97.3 100.5 101.8 102.3 103.9 107.2 0.3 Canada 13.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 18.2 1.0 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 9.9 10.9 12.3 14.1 16.0 18.2 2.5 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 82.1 85.5 88.6 90.9 92.8 94.6 0.5 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 40.6 43.0 44.3 45.4 46.1 46.4 0.5 Japan 21.0 22.1 21.7 22.5 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.2 0.0 South Korea 10.1 10.8 11.8 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.3 15.9 1.3 Australia/NewZealand 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.2 0.7 Total OECD 234.7 242.3 244.1 254.6 262.7

455

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Short-Term Energy Outlook April 1999-Summer Gasoline Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook This year's base case outlook for summer (April-September) motor gasoline markets may be summarized as follows: * Pump Prices: (average regular) projected to average about $1.13 per gallon this summer, up 9-10 cents from last year. The increase, while substantial, still leaves average prices low compared to pre-1998 history, especially in inflation-adjusted terms. * Supplies: expected to be adequate, overall. Beginning-of-season inventories were even with the 1998 level, which was at the high end of the normal range. However, some refinery problems on the West Coast have tightened things up, at least temporarily. * Demand: up 2.0 percent from last summer due to solid economic growth and low (albeit rising) fuel prices; highway travel may reach 1.4 trillion miles for the

457

EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007-World Energy and Economic Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

and Economic Outlook and Economic Outlook International Energy Outlook 2007 Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 Figure 8 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 9. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 2004-2030 Figure 9 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 10. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Economies by Region, 1990-2030 Figure 10 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 11. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 Figure 11 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure 12. World Coal Consumption by Region, 2004-2030 Figure 12 Data. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

458

International Energy Outlook 2006 - World Energy and Economic Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1: World Energy and Economic Outlook 1: World Energy and Economic Outlook The IEO2006 projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than projected in last year’s outlook. Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through 2030. Figure 7. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 (Quadrillion Btu). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 1980-2030 (Quadrillion Btu). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2003-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) Printer friendly version Region 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average Annual Percent Change, 2003-2030

459

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO2005 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” discusses evolving legislation and regulatory issues, including legislation and regulations that have been enacted and some that are proposed. Next, the “Issues in Focus” section discusses key energy market issues and examines their potential impacts. In particular, it includes a discussion of the world oil price assumptions used in the reference case and four alternative world oil price cases examined in AEO2005. “Issues in Focus” is followed by “Market Trends,” which provides a summary of energy market trends in the AEO2005 forecast.

460

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK MAELLE SOARES PINTO  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011 #12;Presentation Overview · Global Outlook ­ Biofuels Mandates in 2010 ­ Total Biofuels Supply and Demand ­ Regional Supply and Demand Outlook to 2020 ­ Biofuels

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H5. World installed nuclear generating capacity by region and country, 2010-2040 (gigawatts) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 115 119 123 130 133 130 135 0.5 United States a 101 104 111 114 114 109 113 0.4 Canada 13 13 11 13 16 16 16 0.7 Mexico/Chile 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 5.1 OECD Europe 132 124 128 142 143 143 142 0.3 OECD Asia 67 45 65 71 79 80 82 0.7 Japan 49 20 34 35 36 37 37 -0.9 South Korea 18 25 32 36 43 43 45 3.2 Australia/New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- Total OECD 314 288 316 343 355 352 359 0.5 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 42 49 58 65 73 80 85 2.4 Russia 24 28 35 40 45 50 55 2.8 Other 17 20 23 25 27 29 29 1.8 Non-OECD Asia 21

462

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H21. World net solar electricity generation by region and country, 2010-2040 (billion kilowatthours) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 4 33 38 42 48 63 101 11.1 United States a 4 32 37 40 46 62 99 11.2 Canada 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -- Mexico/Chile 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -- OECD Europe 23 78 85 89 94 98 102 5.1 OECD Asia 5 12 22 33 39 50 50 8.1 Japan 4 7 14 23 29 39 39 8.1 South Korea 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3.6 Australia/New Zealand 0 4 6 8 8 9 9 -- Total OECD 32 123 145 165 181 211 253 7.1 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -- Russia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- Other 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -- Non-OECD Asia 1 31 76 94 107 120 129 17.2 China 1 26 67 79 90 100 105 17.0 India 0 3 7 13 14 17

463

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H7. World installed hydroelectric generating capacity by region and country, 2010-2040 (gigawatts) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 170 177 181 190 201 214 228 1.0 United States a 78 78 79 79 79 80 81 0.1 Canada 75 78 80 85 93 101 109 1.3 Mexico/Chile 17 20 22 25 29 33 38 2.8 OECD Europe 151 155 169 176 183 189 195 0.9 OECD Asia 37 39 40 40 40 40 41 0.3 Japan 22 24 24 24 24 25 25 0.3 South Korea 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.3 Australia/New Zealand 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 0.3 Total OECD 358 371 389 405 424 443 464 0.9 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 87 91 99 103 110 118 125 1.2 Russia 47 49 54 58 62 66 69 1.3 Other 41 42 45 45 48 52 56 1.1 Non-OECD Asia

464

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Reference case projections for Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel This page inTenTionally lefT blank 259 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H1. World total installed generating capacity by region and country, 2010-2040 (gigawatts) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 1,248 1,316 1,324 1,379 1,456 1,546 1,669 1.0 United States a 1,033 1,080 1,068 1,098 1,147 1,206 1,293 0.8 Canada 137 144 152 163 174 185 198 1.2 Mexico/Chile 78 93 104 118 135 155 177 2.8 OECD Europe 946 1,028 1,096 1,133 1,159 1,185 1,211 0.8 OECD Asia 441 444 473 489 501 516 524 0.6 Japan 287 275 293 300 304 309 306 0.2 South Korea 85 93 100 107 114

465

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H3. World installed natural-gas-fired generating capacity by region and country, 2010-2040 (gigawatts) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 402 435 461 505 568 631 697 1.9 United States a 350 379 390 420 472 519 566 1.6 Canada 20 19 26 28 29 32 35 1.9 Mexico/Chile 31 36 45 56 68 80 95 3.8 OECD Europe 217 219 213 204 218 234 252 0.5 OECD Asia 128 134 140 144 148 157 163 0.8 Japan 83 90 96 97 100 101 101 0.7 South Korea 27 26 26 28 29 35 38 1.1 Australia/New Zealand 18 18 18 19 20 22 23 1.0 Total OECD 746 787 814

466

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Kaya Identity factor projections Table J3. World gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by region expressed in purchasing power parity, Reference case, 2009-2040 (2005 dollars per person) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 32,959 33,559 36,264 39,848 43,145 46,824 51,175 56,306 1.7 United States a 41,478 42,130 45,224 49,521 53,259 57,343 62,044 67,452 1.6 Canada 34,582 35,285 37,485 40,040 41,910 43,909 46,715 50,028 1.2 Mexico/Chile 12,215 12,750 14,862 16,996 19,460 22,324 25,830 30,192 2.9 OECD Europe 25,770 26,269 27,363 29,924 32,694 35,369 38,368 41,753 1.6 OECD Asia 28,623 29,875 32,912 36,117 39,347 42,264 45,505 48,961 1.7 Japan 29,469 30,827 33,255

467

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A14. World population by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (millions) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 470 475 499 523 547 569 591 612 0.8 United States a 308 310 325 340 356 372 388 404 0.9 Canada 34 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 1.0 Mexico/Chile 129 131 138 144 150 155 159 162 0.7 OECD Europe 553 556 570 580 588 594 598 601 0.3 OECD Asia 202 203 204 205 204 203 201 199 -0.1 Japan 128 128 127 125 122 119 117 114 -0.4 South Korea 48 48 49 50 50 50 50 49 0.1 Australia/NewZealand 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 35 0.9 Total OECD 1,226 1,234 1,273 1,307 1,339 1,366 1,390 1,411 0.4 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 338 338 342 342 342 340 337 334 0.0 Russia 141 140 142 141 139 136 134 131 -0.2 Other 197

468

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

O F = = | = = g u n e = O M N O O F = = | = = g u n e = O M N O w i t h P r o j e c t i o n s t o 2 0 3 5 A n n u a l E n e r g y Ou t l o o k 2 0 1 2 For further information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2012 was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.gov, 202/586-2222), Assistant Administrator of Energy Analysis; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia. gov, 202/586-1284), Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team, Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis; Joseph A. Beamon (joseph.beamon@eia.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; Sam A. Napolitano (sam.napolitano@eia.gov, 202/586-0687), Director, Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis; A. Michael

469

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel Table H11. World installed other renewable generating capacity by region and country, 2010-2040 (gigawatts) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 38 40 41 42 43 45 47 0.7 United States a 35 38 39 39 40 41 43 0.7 Canada 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.6 Mexico/Chile 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1.3 OECD Europe 73 75 76 77 78 79 80 0.3 OECD Asia 33 36 36 36 36 36 37 0.3 Japan 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 0.1 South Korea 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 1.2 Australia/New Zealand 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 1.4 Total OECD 144 151 153 155 158 160 163 0.4 Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 0.2 Russia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.3 Other 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.2 Non-OECD Asia 26 36 45 54 63 69 73 3.4 China 20 27 36 45 53 59 61 3.9 India 3 4 4 4

470

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Next Release Date: February 11, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Highlights This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2015. After falling to the lowest monthly average of 2013 in November, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices increased slightly to reach an average of $3.28 per gallon (gal) during December. The annual average regular

471

Evaluation of Surface Analyses and Forecasts with a Multiscale Ensemble Kalman Filter in Regions of Complex Terrain  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Previous research suggests that an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation and modeling system can produce accurate atmospheric analyses and forecasts at 3050-km grid spacing. This study examines the ability of a mesoscale EnKF system ...

Brian C. Ancell; Clifford F. Mass; Gregory J. Hakim

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Evaluation of a Dynamical Basis for Advance Forecasting of the Date of Onset of Monsoon Rainfall over India  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) represents one of the most dramatic transitions in the regional circulation pattern. The onset also marks the beginning of the main rainy season for India; advanced and accurate forecast of the date of ...

P. Goswami; K. C. Gouda

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10 Precipitation Forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Pennsylvania State UniversityNational Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and NCEPs 10-km resolution Eta Model (Eta-10) are verified over the Pacific Northwest in order to show the effects of ...

Brian A. Colle; Kenneth J. Westrick; Clifford F. Mass

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Annual energy outlook 1999, with projections to 2020  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an Overview summarizing the AEO99 reference case. The next section, Legislation and Regulations, describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. Issues in Focus discusses current energy issues--the economic decline in East Asia, growth in demand for natural gas, vehicle emissions standards, competitive electricity pricing, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends. The analysis in AEO99 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for these cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendixes D and E present a summary of the reference case forecasts in units of oil equivalence and household energy expenditures. The AEO99 projections are based on Federal, State, and local laws and regulations in effect on July 1, 1998. Pending legislation and sections of existing legislation for which funds have not been appropriated are not reflected in the forecasts. Historical data used for the AEOI99 projections were the most current available as of July 31, 1998, when most 1997 data but only partial 1998 data were available.

NONE

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

EIA - 2010 International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analyses> International Energy Outlook 2010 - Highlights Analyses> International Energy Outlook 2010 - Highlights International Energy Outlook 2010 - Highlights print version PDF Logo World marketed energy consumption increases by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 in the Reference case. Total energy demand in non-OECD countries increases by 84 percent, compared with an increase of 14 percent in OECD countries. In the IEO2010 Reference case, which does not include prospective legislation or policies, world marketed energy consumption grows by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035. Total world energy use rises from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 to 590 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 1). Figure 1. World marketed energy consumption, 2007-2035 (quadrillion Btu) Chart data

477

Petroleum Outlook:.More Volatility?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook: More Volatility? Outlook: More Volatility? 3/19/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Petroleum Outlook: More Volatility? Product Price Volatility-This Year and in the Future WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001 Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1991-2001 Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Reflect Product Market-Based Volatility U.S. Distillate Inventories Distillate Winter Demand Stronger Than Temperatures Would Imply High Production Offset Lack of Inventory High Production Came From High Yields & High Inputs High Margins Bring High Imports Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer Gasoline Volatility

478

Minerals outlook for Wyoming  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wyoming drilling activity was down. The rig count was at a seven year low in February. Crude oil prices also affect Wyoming's gas production. Fuel oil prices are already low enough to compete with higher priced gas, and may edge out part of the market for natural gas. This year's coal production is still forecast at 112 million tons - a 3.7 percent increase over the 108 million tons produced in 1982. Average coal prices are currently forecast at $13.20 in 1982 and $13.86 in 1983. In 1983, demand for soda ash (trona), iron ore, limestone, and gypsum should reflect any improvements in the national economy. Bentonite is dependent enough on oil and gas drilling activity that significant improvements will probably mirror the status of the petroleum industry. Aggregate (sand, gravel, ballast, clinker, etc.) production will primarily depend on the levels of highway construction and railroad maintenance. Uranium production will remain at low levels, and may even decline with the closure of the Sweetwater mine. There will be some exploration for metals and diamonds in Wyoming this year, however, unless gold and silver prices improve, exploration will fall short of earlier expectations. (DP)

Glass, G.B.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

IEA World Energy Outlook | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

IEA World Energy Outlook IEA World Energy Outlook Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: IEA World Energy Outlook Agency/Company /Organization: International Energy Agency Sector: Energy Focus Area: Conventional Energy, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations References: World Energy Outlook[1] The 2010 "edition of the World Energy Outlook - the International Energy Agency's flagship publication and leading source of analysis of global energy trends - presents updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035. WEO-2010 includes, for the first time, the result of a new scenario that takes account of the recent commitments that governments have made to

480

Hanford and the tri-cities economy: Review and outlook, March 1989  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The economy of the Tri-Cities, Washington area (primarily, Benton and Franklin Counties) is in transition due to major changes in two Department of Energy programs at Hanford---the abrupt ending of the Basalt Waste Isolation Project (BWIP) in December 1987 and the placing of the N Reactor in ''cold standby'' status in February 1988. This report reviews the economic situation in the Tri-Cities during 1988 and presents forecasts for key economic indicators for 1989. This report will be updated about every six months to review the changes in the area economy and forecast the near-term outlook. 6 figs., 33 tabs.

Scott, M.J.; Belzer, D.B.; March, S.J.; Beck, D.M.; Schultz, R.W.; Harkreader, S.A.

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outlook forecast evaluation" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Outlook for Charged Higgs Physics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Almost all extensions of the Standard Model predict the existence of charged Higgs bosons. This talk focuses on the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM), which is relatively predictive. The outlook for detecting supersymmetric particles and Higgs bosons at the LHC are discussed, as are the prospects for finding indirect effects of supersymmetric Higgs bosons at low energies, e.g., in K decays. The outlook for discovering observable effects of CP-violating supersymmetric phases at high energies or in B decays is also mentioned.

John Ellis

2009-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

482

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20031 (AEO2003), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2003 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers and analysts in the U.S. Congress, the Department of Energy’s Office of Policy and International Affairs, other DOE offices, and other government agencies.

483

International Energy Outlook - World Oil Markets  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Oil Markets World Oil Markets International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Markets In the IEO2004 forecast, OPEC export volumes are expected to more than double while non-OPEC suppliers maintain their edge over OPEC in overall production. Prices are projected to rise gradually through 2025 as the oil resource base is further developed. Throughout most of 2003, crude oil prices remained near the top of the range preferred by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), $22 to $28 per barrel for the OPEC “basket price.” OPEC producers continued to demonstrate disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production. Throughout 2003, the upward turn in crude oil prices was brought about by a combination of three factors. First, a general strike against the Chavez regime resulted in a sudden loss of much of Venezuela’s oil exports. Although the other OPEC producers agreed to increase their production capacities to make up for the lost Venezuelan output, the obvious strain on worldwide spare capacity kept prices high. Second, price volatility was exacerbated by internal conflict in Nigeria. Third, prospects for a return to normalcy in the Iraqi oil sector remained uncertain as residual post-war turmoil continued in Iraq.

484

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections Table A10. World carbon dioxide emissions by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (million metric tons carbon dioxide) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 6,448 6,657 6,480 6,627 6,762 6,880 7,070 7,283 0.3 United States a 5,418 5,608 5,381 5,454 5,501 5,523 5,607 5,691 0.0 Canada 548 546 551 574 593 609 628 654 0.6 Mexico/Chile 482 503 548 599 668 748 835 937 2.1 OECD Europe 4,147 4,223 4,054 4,097 4,097 4,151 4,202 4,257 0.0 OECD Asia 2,085 2,200 2,287 2,296 2,329 2,341 2,365 2,358 0.2 Japan 1,105 1,176 1,243 1,220 1,223 1,215 1,194 1,150 -0.1 South Korea 531 581 600 627 653 666 703 730 0.8 Australia/NewZealand 449 443 444 449 452 460 468 478 0.3 Total OECD 12,680

485

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Reference case projections Reference case projections for natural gas production This page inTenTionally lefT blank 283 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections for natural gas production Table I1. World total natural gas production by region, Reference case, 2010-2040 (trillion cubic feet) Region/country Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 28.4 30.4 33.5 36.1 38.2 41.1 44.4 1.5 United States a 21.2 23.9 26.5 28.4 29.7 31.3 33.1 1.5 Canada 5.4 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.6 1.1 Mexico 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.5 2.3 Chile 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 OECD Europe 10.4 9.0 8.1 8.0 8.6 9.2 9.9 -0.2 North Europe 10.1 8.4 7.4 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.1 -0.3 South Europe 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 Southwest Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Turkey/Israel

486

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 High Oil Price case projections Table D1. World total primary energy consumption by region, High Oil Price case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 119.5 124.2 128.2 131.8 136.7 144.7 0.6 United States a 94.9 97.9 96.0 99.4 100.9 101.4 103.0 107.3 0.3 Canada 13.7 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.3 16.4 17.6 19.0 1.1 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 9.6 10.5 12.0 14.0 16.1 18.5 2.5 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 80.5 83.3 86.3 88.6 90.5 92.3 0.4 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 39.3 41.1 42.4 43.5 44.3 44.5 0.4 Japan 21.0 22.1 21.0 21.6 21.9 22.0 21.8 21.0 -0.2 South Korea 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.3 14.2 14.9 15.7 1.3 Australia/NewZealand 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.8 0.5 Total OECD 234.7 242.3

487

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

E E Low Oil Price case projections * World energy consumption * Gross domestic product This page inTenTionally lefT blank 217 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Low Oil Price case projections Table E1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Low Oil Price case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 122.3 128.2 132.1 135.5 140.0 146.7 0.7 United States a 94.9 97.9 97.9 101.6 102.9 103.6 105.3 108.8 0.4 Canada 13.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.6 1.1 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 10.0 11.4 12.9 14.8 16.8 19.3 2.7 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 83.1 88.0 91.8 94.7 97.4 100.0 0.6 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 41.1 44.7 46.6 47.9 49.0 49.7 0.8 Japan 21.0 22.1 22.0 23.6 24.3 24.4 24.4 23.9

488

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 High Economic Growth case projections Table B1. World total primary energy consumption by region, High Economic Growth case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 122.0 129.8 134.8 139.5 146.0 155.6 0.9 United States a 94.9 97.9 97.9 104.2 106.8 108.7 112.5 118.9 0.6 Canada 13.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.2 18.2 1.0 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.9 12.4 14.3 16.3 18.6 2.5 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 82.2 85.7 88.9 91.3 93.4 95.4 0.5 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 40.0 42.1 43.5 44.8 45.9 46.8 0.6 Japan 21.0 22.1 21.3 21.9 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.4 0.0 South Korea 10.1 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.6 16.6 1.4 Australia/NewZealand 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.9 0.6 Total OECD

489

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

High Economic Growth case projections High Economic Growth case projections * World energy consumption * Gross domestic product This page inTenTionally lefT blank 197 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 High Economic Growth case projections Table B1. World total primary energy consumption by region, High Economic Growth case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 122.0 129.8 134.8 139.5 146.0 155.6 0.9 United States a 94.9 97.9 97.9 104.2 106.8 108.7 112.5 118.9 0.6 Canada 13.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.2 18.2 1.0 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.9 12.4 14.3 16.3 18.6 2.5 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 82.2 85.7 88.9 91.3 93.4 95.4 0.5 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 40.0 42.1 43.5 44.8 45.9 46.8 0.6 Japan 21.0 22.1 21.3 21.9

490

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Kaya Identity factor projections Kaya Identity factor projections * Carbon dioxide intensity * Energy intensity * GDP per capita * Population This page inTenTionally lefT blank 289 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Kaya Identity factor projections Table J1. World carbon dioxide intensity of energy use by region, Reference case, 2009-2040 (metric tons per billion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 55.1 55.4 53.4 52.5 52.1 51.8 51.5 50.7 -0.3 United States a 57.1 57.3 55.3 54.3 54.1 54.0 54.0 53.1 -0.3 Canada 40.1 40.5 38.8 38.9 37.9 36.8 36.3 35.9 -0.4 Mexico/Chile 57.2 57.4 55.6 55.0 54.2 53.2 52.3 51.6 -0.4 OECD Europe 51.9 51.2 49.4 47.9 46.2 45.7 45.3 45.0 -0.4 OECD Asia 55.3 55.5 56.3 53.5 52.5 51.6 51.3 50.8 -0.3 Japan

491

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Low Oil Price case projections Table E1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Low Oil Price case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 122.3 128.2 132.1 135.5 140.0 146.7 0.7 United States a 94.9 97.9 97.9 101.6 102.9 103.6 105.3 108.8 0.4 Canada 13.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.6 1.1 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 10.0 11.4 12.9 14.8 16.8 19.3 2.7 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 83.1 88.0 91.8 94.7 97.4 100.0 0.6 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 41.1 44.7 46.6 47.9 49.0 49.7 0.8 Japan 21.0 22.1 22.0 23.6 24.3 24.4 24.4 23.9 0.3 South Korea 10.1 10.8 12.1 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.5 17.4 1.6 Australia/NewZealand 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 0.8 Total OECD 234.7 242.3

492

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Projections of liquid fuels and other petroleum production in five cases Table G5. World petroleum production by region and country, High Oil Price case, 2010-2040 (million barrels per day) Region/country History (estimates) Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OPEC a 34.8 35.0 33.9 34.2 36.5 39.3 42.8 45.3 0.9 Middle East 23.8 25.3 23.0 23.6 25.4 27.9 30.8 33.0 1.1 North Africa 3.8 2.4 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.7 -0.1 West Africa 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 0.6 South America 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 0.4 Non-OPEC 50.1 50.0 54.1 55.9 56.8 59.5 62.2 65.7 0.9 OECD 20.4 20.3 23.1 23.6 23.4 23.4 24.2 25.2 0.7 OECD Americas 15.2

493

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

F F Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping This page inTenTionally lefT blank 225 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping Table F1. Total world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and fuel, 2010-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Sector/fuel Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Liquids 9.5 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 -0.4 Natural gas 19.9 20.8 22.6 24.8 27.1 29.0 30.8 1.5 Coal 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 -0.3 Electricity 17.6 20.1 23.1 26.4 30.0 33.9 38.0 2.6 Total 52.0 55.1 59.8 65.0 70.8 76.3 81.8 1.5 Commercial Liquids 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 -0.4 Natural gas 8.4 8.8 9.4 10.2 11.1 11.8 12.4 1.3 Coal 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.5 Electricity 14.8

494

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Low Economic Growth case projections Low Economic Growth case projections * World energy consumption * Gross domestic product This page inTenTionally lefT blank 203 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 Low Economic Growth case projections Table C1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Low Economic Growth case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 119.9 122.1 124.1 125.9 129.0 133.9 0.4 United States a 94.9 97.9 95.9 96.4 96.1 95.3 95.7 97.3 0.0 Canada 13.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.3 18.2 1.0 Mexico/Chile 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.9 12.3 14.1 16.0 18.3 2.5 OECD Europe 80.0 82.5 82.1 85.3 88.0 90.1 91.6 93.0 0.4 OECD Asia 37.7 39.6 40.3 42.7 43.9 44.6 45.0 45.0 0.4 Japan 21.0 22.1 21.6 22.5 22.8 22.6

495

International Energy Outlook 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook</